Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices

Michael T. Kiley¹

July 16, 2008

Figure 1: Estimates of trend for PCE inflation from IMA(1,1) models (percent, annual rate)
Year/Quarter	Model 1 (Bivariate)	Model 2 (PCE prices)	Model 3 (PCE prices excl. food and energy)
1974Q4	9.645292	10.09051	9.48182
1975Q1	7.422274	7.940294	7.54904
1975Q2	6.01241	5.372467	6.333189
1975Q3	6.31306	7.116817	6.044604
1975Q4	6.498769	6.797667	6.438615
1976Q1	5.720014	4.789315	6.033527
1976Q2	4.411318	3.640049	4.768561
1976Q3	6.275214	5.633704	6.242828
1976Q4	6.264526	6.125148	6.271359
1977Q1	6.5879	6.871253	6.501197
1977Q2	5.910573	6.825331	5.804323
1977Q3	6.516162	6.1407	6.592761
1977Q4	5.838496	5.774795	5.891701
1978Q1	6.485117	6.538866	6.420559
1978Q2	6.877262	7.927914	6.640025
1978Q3	6.493713	7.096695	6.429487
1978Q4	7.045704	7.396218	6.966941
1979Q1	5.287004	7.383957	4.95076
1979Q2	8.693191	10.11627	8.170754
1979Q3	7.786806	9.763634	7.170701
1979Q4	8.389668	9.533531	8.006352
1980Q1	9.967452	11.32188	9.389673
1980Q2	8.967607	9.916128	8.739513
1980Q3	8.910764	9.34036	8.793279
1980Q4	9.655551	9.682053	9.615981
1981Q1	9.09904	10.08741	8.728645
1981Q2	7.366699	7.43719	7.527154
1981Q3	7.219671	6.713886	7.397878
1981Q4	6.935708	6.188673	7.171234
1982Q1	5.807248	5.262974	6.048142
1982Q2	5.177028	4.073129	5.49365
1982Q3	6.218989	5.760541	6.250993
1982Q4	5.559801	4.765169	5.777718
1983Q1	5.207656	3.732774	5.569043
1983Q2	3.322055	3.674366	3.353548
1983Q3	5.665701	4.879461	5.794319
1983Q4	3.443321	3.216926	3.762403
1984Q1	3.914349	3.98223	3.879312
1984Q2	4.330789	3.894594	4.499759
1984Q3	3.684449	3.291053	3.939499
1984Q4	2.923009	2.701868	3.142005
1985Q1	4.371113	3.867554	4.48447
1985Q2	3.356861	3.246681	3.500684
1985Q3	3.161251	2.74647	3.427228
1985Q4	3.203625	3.032247	3.309064
1986Q1	3.694869	2.911451	4.039645
1986Q2	2.732722	0.925089	3.618993
1986Q3	3.392793	2.432488	3.75741
1986Q4	3.505978	2.740669	3.7863
1987Q1	3.665425	4.025162	3.505692
1987Q2	3.478512	3.585666	3.447243
1987Q3	3.855189	3.901563	3.792859
1987Q4	3.833563	3.548114	3.944242
1988Q1	3.929681	3.48235	4.124779
1988Q2	4.458064	4.082741	4.588795
1988Q3	4.463755	4.552938	4.425001
1988Q4	4.304527	4.101353	4.354557
1989Q1	4.483327	4.504102	4.471659
1989Q2	4.008542	4.902691	3.887276
1989Q3	3.48299	3.560142	3.499712
1989Q4	3.610695	3.399369	3.652068
1990Q1	4.251877	4.830521	4.162161
1990Q2	4.700539	4.502808	4.691318
1990Q3	4.417409	4.785865	4.338243
1990Q4	4.021136	4.991623	3.815911
1991Q1	4.109809	3.875726	4.166131
1991Q2	3.432752	2.907935	3.630536
1991Q3	3.481064	2.854327	3.687123
1991Q4	3.506048	3.043424	3.664714
1992Q1	3.608024	3.070249	3.768891
1992Q2	3.122642	2.772387	3.305877
1992Q3	2.937956	2.780755	3.044262
1992Q4	2.770791	2.633323	2.863393
1993Q1	2.512039	2.30538	2.628401
1993Q2	2.713209	2.45996	2.809303
1993Q3	2.1617	1.878656	2.318951
1993Q4	2.037505	1.995709	2.09833
1994Q1	1.972164	1.769625	2.057198
1994Q2	2.304281	1.991581	2.368406
1994Q3	2.799192	2.879823	2.752432
1994Q4	2.290732	2.259701	2.315479
1995Q1	2.152641	2.081053	2.189318
1995Q2	2.193782	2.149166	2.212804
1995Q3	2.07368	1.940716	2.10822
1995Q4	1.957839	1.85857	2.019629
1996Q1	2.000765	2.098808	1.967589
1996Q2	1.986889	2.254049	1.880044
1996Q3	1.851058	2.031239	1.799195
1996Q4	1.996884	2.237225	1.901993
1997Q1	1.854428	2.098209	1.773484
1997Q2	1.744094	1.666149	1.79715
1997Q3	1.473088	1.467225	1.526277
1997Q4	1.410609	1.415687	1.439658
1998Q1	1.259003	1.007776	1.399531
1998Q2	1.203358	0.878853	1.293267
1998Q3	1.285267	1.035216	1.347088
1998Q4	1.43215	1.197364	1.473623
1999Q1	1.335508	1.130329	1.381608
1999Q2	1.568226	1.656693	1.496157
1999Q3	1.561209	1.893902	1.465959
1999Q4	1.72868	2.087802	1.630909
2000Q1	2.144984	2.690107	1.987248
2000Q2	1.753131	2.36026	1.662421
2000Q3	1.407059	2.153986	1.329564
2000Q4	1.45827	1.968279	1.397968
2001Q1	2.150893	2.485558	1.987874
2001Q2	2.183344	2.497564	2.010985
2001Q3	1.744384	1.781942	1.762977
2001Q4	1.953098	1.235523	2.080756
2002Q1	1.642948	1.088882	1.763341
2002Q2	1.78496	1.770215	1.789193
2002Q3	1.817925	1.763615	1.812044
2002Q4	1.591991	1.71883	1.582852
2003Q1	1.527585	2.210631	1.402912
2003Q2	1.380385	1.652238	1.353484
2003Q3	1.56523	1.886463	1.506959
2003Q4	1.571379	1.746658	1.543319
2004Q1	1.988748	2.36571	1.872906
2004Q2	2.336364	2.987663	2.198529
2004Q3	2.047529	2.558962	1.998417
2004Q4	2.224616	2.727805	2.039639
2005Q1	2.265006	2.510843	2.228393
2005Q2	2.244683	2.75899	2.163824
2005Q3	2.137926	3.223583	1.96802
2005Q4	2.205903	3.064052	2.108895
2006Q1	2.117677	2.669056	2.073295
2006Q2	2.415613	3.085816	2.361799
2006Q3	2.365867	2.928747	2.322852
2006Q4	2.179386	2.207992	2.179361
2007Q1	2.237042	2.409129	2.237343
2007Q2	2.035857	2.638129	2.006232
2007Q3	2.024587	2.511332	2.002965
2007Q4	2.155329	2.693351	2.126832

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: RMSE for overall PCE prices (rolling 16-quarter estimates) (percentage points, annual rate)
Year/quarter	Atkeson/Ohanian	Model 1 (Bivariate)	Model 2 (PCE prices)
1974Q4	2.916713	3.107676	2.471289
1975Q1	3.065968	3.123675	2.522397
1975Q2	3.129595	3.109294	2.506519
1975Q3	3.168816	3.119036	2.544876
1975Q4	3.194197	3.129373	2.578711
1976Q1	3.194027	3.127315	2.586447
1976Q2	3.179712	3.124712	2.632908
1976Q3	3.13127	3.053519	2.573636
1976Q4	3.019079	2.861724	2.408606
1977Q1	2.737271	2.525058	2.181651
1977Q2	2.478593	2.344091	2.090512
1977Q3	2.202432	2.011543	1.943815
1977Q4	1.999562	1.580369	1.849556
1978Q1	2.004118	1.525332	1.842455
1978Q2	2.013184	1.509236	1.71345
1978Q3	1.942764	1.375137	1.580278
1978Q4	1.722063	1.286931	1.411661
1979Q1	1.608053	1.77349	1.517309
1979Q2	1.538933	1.804088	1.51694
1979Q3	1.456527	1.863517	1.436833
1979Q4	1.410653	1.874073	1.373713
1980Q1	1.421203	1.875505	1.416476
1980Q2	1.428481	1.798937	1.24245
1980Q3	1.451366	1.804831	1.251104
1980Q4	1.565648	1.894665	1.379121
1981Q1	1.80183	2.040676	1.702567
1981Q2	2.010515	2.093321	1.779162
1981Q3	2.144561	2.147272	1.805957
1981Q4	2.219362	2.176931	1.794619
1982Q1	2.234372	2.187779	1.789649
1982Q2	2.21577	2.173607	1.791462
1982Q3	2.179323	2.155539	1.783202
1982Q4	2.140106	2.128517	1.73649
1983Q1	2.016785	1.731021	1.565493
1983Q2	1.957058	1.70297	1.567671
1983Q3	1.943361	1.703275	1.606044
1983Q4	1.93612	1.651533	1.601528
1984Q1	1.932018	1.654285	1.553648
1984Q2	1.919477	1.677343	1.543268
1984Q3	1.874005	1.676406	1.521111
1984Q4	1.747764	1.576038	1.41132
1985Q1	1.50126	1.428203	1.016611
1985Q2	1.233832	1.36825	0.912549
1985Q3	0.99792	1.296376	0.845529
1985Q4	0.824707	1.214433	0.804605
1986Q1	0.727828	1.197573	0.7834
1986Q2	0.756589	1.196578	0.999996
1986Q3	0.788607	1.087648	0.974053
1986Q4	0.838222	0.992766	0.979758
1987Q1	0.860249	0.942199	0.984545
1987Q2	0.858601	0.930607	0.982869
1987Q3	0.841982	0.751668	0.917508
1987Q4	0.840925	0.755127	0.927302
1988Q1	0.858202	0.75628	0.947782
1988Q2	0.859757	0.704973	0.942836
1988Q3	0.854975	0.695999	0.94893
1988Q4	0.855286	0.697348	0.939829
1989Q1	0.846573	0.595819	0.910802
1989Q2	0.822924	0.521339	0.901562
1989Q3	0.810026	0.552883	0.932526
1989Q4	0.820285	0.617019	1.002442
1990Q1	0.818443	0.558656	1.00732
1990Q2	0.758978	0.572568	0.804811
1990Q3	0.75015	0.633089	0.828218
1990Q4	0.851151	0.697709	0.954094
1991Q1	0.902837	0.767681	0.983216
1991Q2	0.926891	0.773886	0.981419
1991Q3	0.929184	0.786544	0.981207
1991Q4	0.926602	0.806522	0.973657
1992Q1	0.905392	0.844819	0.955231
1992Q2	0.888858	0.858605	0.947982
1992Q3	0.909185	0.876704	0.954474
1992Q4	0.924988	0.891267	0.965445
1993Q1	0.934382	0.90159	0.967959
1993Q2	0.936119	0.929528	0.955061
1993Q3	0.92835	0.887144	0.925882
1993Q4	0.885547	0.81052	0.828917
1994Q1	0.891944	0.81574	0.833137
1994Q2	0.901714	0.786608	0.821447
1994Q3	0.846932	0.768019	0.771385
1994Q4	0.636337	0.712539	0.551881
1995Q1	0.516425	0.637116	0.48579
1995Q2	0.466617	0.624075	0.485944
1995Q3	0.458231	0.607025	0.486945
1995Q4	0.47142	0.582896	0.494688
1996Q1	0.464816	0.511656	0.472403
1996Q2	0.462886	0.491136	0.486394
1996Q3	0.438753	0.453003	0.472219
1996Q4	0.48337	0.453778	0.511277
1997Q1	0.562714	0.493522	0.587944
1997Q2	0.578105	0.492373	0.600701
1997Q3	0.599498	0.50999	0.605359
1997Q4	0.60126	0.519921	0.61292
1998Q1	0.594103	0.512261	0.595917
1998Q2	0.607726	0.521733	0.615912
1998Q3	0.639532	0.489996	0.598746
1998Q4	0.689457	0.502986	0.628052
1999Q1	0.785371	0.601551	0.735467
1999Q2	0.813709	0.644143	0.764601
1999Q3	0.825639	0.677965	0.77457
1999Q4	0.819721	0.68473	0.766994
2000Q1	0.827151	0.683733	0.776687
2000Q2	0.82218	0.696183	0.764643
2000Q3	0.818411	0.709978	0.756963
2000Q4	0.784425	0.687978	0.717965
2001Q1	0.762099	0.689803	0.73027
2001Q2	0.784837	0.696803	0.771952
2001Q3	0.777756	0.685055	0.762432
2001Q4	0.774174	0.676611	0.765124
2002Q1	0.823498	0.695239	0.822126
2002Q2	0.814107	0.688013	0.801922
2002Q3	0.788277	0.675246	0.778357
2002Q4	0.738969	0.661299	0.749804
2003Q1	0.635256	0.583262	0.647071
2003Q2	0.64393	0.636708	0.67188
2003Q3	0.65394	0.659856	0.687194
2003Q4	0.713827	0.743356	0.758221
2004Q1	0.72806	0.765457	0.753401
2004Q2	0.728108	0.753999	0.759361
2004Q3	0.733129	0.789556	0.773957
2004Q4	0.721048	0.817822	0.777651
2005Q1	0.675325	0.800135	0.712827
2005Q2	0.630962	0.799917	0.645806
2005Q3	0.623744	0.815307	0.650213
2005Q4	0.695204	0.817904	0.700851
2006Q1	0.656626	0.802782	0.638824
2006Q2	0.680555	0.803245	0.66791
2006Q3	0.694917	0.805305	0.697138
2006Q4	0.780183	0.85059	0.748655
2007Q1	0.817353	0.886248	0.781304

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: RMSE for PCE prices excluding food and energy prices (rolling 16-quarter estimates) (percentage points, annual rate)
Year/quarter	Atkeson/Ohanian	Model 1 (Bivariate)	Model 3 (PCE prices excl. food and energy)
1974Q4	2.440902	1.910788	2.215827
1975Q1	2.549753	1.917877	2.218431
1975Q2	2.606189	1.885152	2.192767
1975Q3	2.595953	1.877557	2.185878
1975Q4	2.595147	1.876791	2.181483
1976Q1	2.586505	1.850776	2.158819
1976Q2	2.587841	1.897066	2.182626
1976Q3	2.58119	1.888633	2.172414
1976Q4	2.560825	1.842031	2.120052
1977Q1	2.477094	1.77153	2.021535
1977Q2	2.354627	1.765813	2.000708
1977Q3	2.116501	1.657262	1.852408
1977Q4	1.753966	1.413391	1.499232
1978Q1	1.433805	1.357908	1.327499
1978Q2	1.327947	1.327463	1.3107
1978Q3	1.325607	0.999629	0.939355
1978Q4	1.170274	0.645615	0.601597
1979Q1	1.000917	0.940543	0.970743
1979Q2	0.831497	0.943359	0.963255
1979Q3	0.8868	0.96893	1.042581
1979Q4	1.006395	0.97471	1.072465
1980Q1	1.018001	1.005962	1.077939
1980Q2	1.015872	0.904589	1.01678
1980Q3	1.018258	0.918636	1.025074
1980Q4	1.086291	1.049488	1.139431
1981Q1	1.193791	1.17418	1.220154
1981Q2	1.309023	1.18955	1.240047
1981Q3	1.40689	1.215417	1.273757
1981Q4	1.471448	1.230129	1.303392
1982Q1	1.501332	1.228745	1.304674
1982Q2	1.534996	1.227835	1.307376
1982Q3	1.552221	1.253084	1.331571
1982Q4	1.582913	1.280291	1.368371
1983Q1	1.555532	1.075441	1.146855
1983Q2	1.507515	1.11332	1.18288
1983Q3	1.464115	1.174506	1.212096
1983Q4	1.382464	1.161288	1.175964
1984Q1	1.372332	1.133673	1.171818
1984Q2	1.386833	1.14213	1.189339
1984Q3	1.382847	1.131094	1.185332
1984Q4	1.327218	1.028724	1.084378
1985Q1	1.237679	0.902503	1.01764
1985Q2	1.114298	0.876423	0.982988
1985Q3	0.988276	0.850568	0.939675
1985Q4	0.884133	0.822351	0.890226
1986Q1	0.832422	0.822542	0.893789
1986Q2	0.764898	0.85108	0.889761
1986Q3	0.718657	0.810953	0.847186
1986Q4	0.636441	0.768432	0.785611
1987Q1	0.488194	0.719189	0.701433
1987Q2	0.489963	0.681688	0.668772
1987Q3	0.411725	0.528848	0.486374
1987Q4	0.416087	0.541895	0.50127
1988Q1	0.443683	0.559893	0.508291
1988Q2	0.390882	0.541304	0.478035
1988Q3	0.407611	0.564122	0.493652
1988Q4	0.445949	0.55181	0.501882
1989Q1	0.466981	0.543371	0.478398
1989Q2	0.466939	0.541831	0.484135
1989Q3	0.489979	0.574572	0.532045
1989Q4	0.510607	0.577134	0.538939
1990Q1	0.526269	0.576735	0.528564
1990Q2	0.540759	0.58862	0.582989
1990Q3	0.57433	0.615926	0.607058
1990Q4	0.589337	0.618005	0.606896
1991Q1	0.608476	0.629271	0.616452
1991Q2	0.588197	0.598747	0.582843
1991Q3	0.567589	0.587422	0.574485
1991Q4	0.565492	0.580216	0.583158
1992Q1	0.590733	0.609293	0.63818
1992Q2	0.624113	0.6131	0.646031
1992Q3	0.641642	0.603141	0.644342
1992Q4	0.644065	0.597222	0.640697
1993Q1	0.625666	0.573507	0.624128
1993Q2	0.643644	0.591656	0.644003
1993Q3	0.625584	0.546322	0.601227
1993Q4	0.608825	0.527907	0.585138
1994Q1	0.598581	0.540551	0.592363
1994Q2	0.588223	0.480183	0.538989
1994Q3	0.563708	0.480091	0.541548
1994Q4	0.555343	0.479343	0.545768
1995Q1	0.541015	0.462527	0.528141
1995Q2	0.551441	0.469563	0.534814
1995Q3	0.547275	0.472751	0.531458
1995Q4	0.520319	0.458965	0.509828
1996Q1	0.470954	0.398599	0.431806
1996Q2	0.425495	0.388966	0.406102
1996Q3	0.378576	0.377895	0.38447
1996Q4	0.347488	0.391401	0.380411
1997Q1	0.341853	0.404828	0.38039
1997Q2	0.341812	0.402738	0.373036
1997Q3	0.347696	0.399527	0.37618
1997Q4	0.345828	0.387397	0.36704
1998Q1	0.339875	0.370649	0.354602
1998Q2	0.347215	0.378719	0.358743
1998Q3	0.336852	0.331393	0.313004
1998Q4	0.323496	0.326264	0.305491
1999Q1	0.324913	0.347119	0.32215
1999Q2	0.30793	0.339195	0.315096
1999Q3	0.301932	0.330915	0.305646
1999Q4	0.297366	0.333453	0.303075
2000Q1	0.296132	0.353325	0.312249
2000Q2	0.29568	0.348937	0.312745
2000Q3	0.302555	0.365926	0.342231
2000Q4	0.326223	0.376758	0.371624
2001Q1	0.313841	0.361976	0.356508
2001Q2	0.274841	0.34617	0.323667
2001Q3	0.26751	0.345166	0.320137
2001Q4	0.313644	0.360267	0.347475
2002Q1	0.323427	0.360889	0.353556
2002Q2	0.326909	0.367992	0.365244
2002Q3	0.349962	0.383204	0.382014
2002Q4	0.349762	0.384323	0.383488
2003Q1	0.33611	0.367782	0.376713
2003Q2	0.37911	0.406788	0.415698
2003Q3	0.421632	0.42668	0.438526
2003Q4	0.464005	0.452389	0.468161
2004Q1	0.476373	0.436726	0.467781
2004Q2	0.476023	0.440348	0.467055
2004Q3	0.468782	0.420398	0.442642
2004Q4	0.436942	0.377856	0.395699
2005Q1	0.437347	0.373834	0.396961
2005Q2	0.438104	0.35936	0.392562
2005Q3	0.443468	0.362744	0.404566
2005Q4	0.412725	0.348053	0.383313
2006Q1	0.413758	0.351472	0.38437
2006Q2	0.40488	0.351809	0.380853
2006Q3	0.399625	0.350233	0.376732
2006Q4	0.402077	0.349303	0.3761
2007Q1	0.405844	0.348765	0.369527

Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: Estimates of trend for CPI inflation from IMA(1,1) models (percent, annual rate)
Year/Quarter	Model 1 (Bivariate)	Model 2 (CPI)	Model 3 (CPI excl. food and energy)
1974Q4	11.84455	11.84504	11.7674
1975Q1	8.860962	9.290191	8.9897
1975Q2	5.552078	5.157955	6.344839
1975Q3	6.463104	7.450853	5.196659
1975Q4	7.03882	7.338243	6.793479
1976Q1	6.113561	5.170254	7.417973
1976Q2	4.546666	3.81641	5.46896
1976Q3	6.332646	5.795387	6.459165
1976Q4	5.666102	5.77955	5.533522
1977Q1	6.781296	6.945881	6.47729
1977Q2	6.664045	6.927022	6.431281
1977Q3	5.676692	5.816541	5.720217
1977Q4	5.600694	5.843731	5.402107
1978Q1	6.811789	6.621528	6.898905
1978Q2	8.431486	8.562261	8.061814
1978Q3	8.834893	9.104327	8.539464
1978Q4	8.956918	9.178568	8.767154
1979Q1	9.49526	9.826827	9.150954
1979Q2	10.64508	12.15676	9.330867
1979Q3	11.25394	12.62815	10.20059
1979Q4	12.16981	12.48482	11.90362
1980Q1	15.06428	15.2126	14.5216
1980Q2	13.25561	13.5548	13.18342
1980Q3	6.046743	7.800882	5.940703
1980Q4	10.80542	10.5485	11.03429
1981Q1	10.35197	10.82663	9.811798
1981Q2	8.957838	8.90055	9.077708
1981Q3	11.19473	10.45232	11.8888
1981Q4	8.051668	7.644511	9.243652
1982Q1	5.013456	4.459067	6.463737
1982Q2	6.027286	5.433816	7.031063
1982Q3	6.603282	6.499634	6.797119
1982Q4	2.734816	2.812912	3.393714
1983Q1	1.684808	0.861043	2.756716
1983Q2	3.546435	3.500779	3.510422
1983Q3	4.175247	3.764848	4.425369
1983Q4	4.386376	3.912443	4.896451
1984Q1	5.232993	5.111648	5.274613
1984Q2	4.542866	4.170934	5.03233
1984Q3	4.218815	3.682035	4.988727
1984Q4	3.880504	3.51243	4.368769
1985Q1	3.973915	3.610514	4.364479
1985Q2	3.892572	3.618592	4.251704
1985Q3	3.219712	2.822557	3.79714
1985Q4	4.005224	3.679911	4.302748
1986Q1	3.381582	2.574592	4.301479
1986Q2	1.519385	-0.641307	3.672105
1986Q3	2.750745	1.468216	3.723614
1986Q4	3.184866	2.342641	3.794461
1987Q1	3.744479	3.968487	3.430474
1987Q2	4.407486	4.292197	4.297596
1987Q3	4.087806	4.232975	3.933247
1987Q4	4.13409	3.913847	4.331844
1988Q1	3.684124	3.416557	4.044267
1988Q2	4.370794	4.124748	4.516862
1988Q3	4.557576	4.571224	4.462771
1988Q4	4.590552	4.432063	4.674367
1989Q1	4.417933	4.485527	4.396135
1989Q2	4.785778	5.677424	4.336871
1989Q3	4.074814	4.100517	4.072004
1989Q4	4.356146	4.064239	4.461026
1990Q1	5.079273	5.771732	4.775662
1990Q2	4.925192	4.641884	4.999088
1990Q3	5.648971	6.005214	5.487166
1990Q4	5.38075	6.456026	4.990666
1991Q1	5.132196	4.358408	5.400463
1991Q2	4.02401	3.108404	4.435645
1991Q3	3.96815	3.06455	4.371236
1991Q4	3.747453	3.213135	4.016459
1992Q1	3.445897	2.896871	3.731
1992Q2	3.392089	3.000873	3.594267
1992Q3	3.216494	3.026042	3.33582
1992Q4	3.407384	3.296591	3.469681
1993Q1	3.350194	3.065613	3.470679
1993Q2	3.274177	2.96053	3.413125
1993Q3	2.714985	2.356564	2.909415
1993Q4	2.9597	2.869109	3.021688
1994Q1	2.688799	2.404198	2.823098
1994Q2	2.675275	2.328834	2.780341
1994Q3	2.939341	3.091945	2.877162
1994Q4	2.662663	2.671165	2.728329
1995Q1	3.075277	2.799801	3.029405
1995Q2	3.16819	3.05803	3.169743
1995Q3	2.793409	2.500244	2.878004
1995Q4	2.745046	2.372252	2.82985
1996Q1	2.77552	2.893904	2.715616
1996Q2	2.59557	2.981338	2.590886
1996Q3	2.634075	2.790504	2.640277
1996Q4	2.506965	2.968492	2.576248
1997Q1	2.402983	2.826472	2.525201
1997Q2	2.382039	2.051972	2.484864
1997Q3	1.981697	2.120868	2.065968
1997Q4	2.174633	2.099889	2.195647
1998Q1	2.266055	1.618636	2.297699
1998Q2	2.235574	1.49274	2.271647
1998Q3	2.302947	1.704036	2.325123
1998Q4	2.250855	1.770281	2.274952
1999Q1	2.013195	1.659457	2.041464
1999Q2	1.981005	2.125321	1.975464
1999Q3	2.05597	2.426777	2.035396
1999Q4	2.155844	2.608673	2.129953
2000Q1	2.388306	3.123268	2.343696
2000Q2	2.496671	3.123423	2.43179
2000Q3	2.659747	3.37214	2.530905
2000Q4	2.521489	3.14237	2.477173
2001Q1	2.776873	3.378108	2.679619
2001Q2	2.633437	3.163822	2.571198
2001Q3	2.594296	2.464738	2.642185
2001Q4	2.519879	1.202525	2.63905
2002Q1	2.306654	1.235593	2.415845
2002Q2	2.207833	2.015577	2.223485
2002Q3	2.148801	2.063611	2.15586
2002Q4	1.993578	2.168842	1.967047
2003Q1	1.762686	2.884929	1.605235
2003Q2	1.031338	1.699375	1.054961
2003Q3	1.404919	2.097876	1.368666
2003Q4	1.202786	1.923419	1.177441
2004Q1	1.693786	2.333124	1.628502
2004Q2	2.107056	2.629	2.051795
2004Q3	1.943976	2.686506	1.888566
2004Q4	2.225497	3.110879	2.150576
2005Q1	2.376827	2.735106	2.342761
2005Q2	2.161425	2.621683	2.115076
2005Q3	2.027079	3.389124	1.742803
2005Q4	2.291991	3.635345	2.159093
2006Q1	2.347839	3.01294	2.317329
2006Q2	2.926068	3.176508	2.942271
2006Q3	2.918292	3.328707	2.880417
2006Q4	2.293595	2.565001	2.310183
2007Q1	2.285376	2.574261	2.280637
2007Q2	2.15277	2.598494	2.121935
2007Q3	2.312663	2.585911	2.293679
2007Q4	2.416144	2.812992	2.377162

Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: RMSE for overall CPI (rolling 16-quarter estimates) (percentage points, annual rate)
Year/quarter	Atkeson/Ohanian	Model 1 (Bivariate)	Model 2 (CPI)
1974Q4	3.077012	3.100801	2.559
1975Q1	3.253409	3.171426	2.674972
1975Q2	3.344347	3.167556	2.677198
1975Q3	3.408046	3.172107	2.714577
1975Q4	3.446641	3.208468	2.773684
1976Q1	3.445082	3.203322	2.76989
1976Q2	3.402458	3.177357	2.771458
1976Q3	3.287569	3.05163	2.631109
1976Q4	3.078328	2.804573	2.416143
1977Q1	2.766984	2.525752	2.232005
1977Q2	2.520782	2.332623	2.153578
1977Q3	2.312447	2.087059	2.067941
1977Q4	2.227985	2.059904	2.123775
1978Q1	2.339406	2.125439	2.223524
1978Q2	2.480476	2.153904	2.225654
1978Q3	2.54215	2.050143	2.178709
1978Q4	2.456659	1.831145	1.953942
1979Q1	2.407687	1.947224	1.987244
1979Q2	2.406808	2.070557	2.007158
1979Q3	2.312142	2.067241	1.946576
1979Q4	2.253795	2.008973	1.868728
1980Q1	2.344496	2.287662	2.182049
1980Q2	2.548132	2.428481	2.314327
1980Q3	2.579859	2.651405	2.39315
1980Q4	2.64346	2.67742	2.413752
1981Q1	2.770676	2.780588	2.563565
1981Q2	2.853419	2.838184	2.622835
1981Q3	3.062538	3.116693	2.844721
1981Q4	3.244644	3.166452	2.883216
1982Q1	3.291537	3.125103	2.811942
1982Q2	3.292157	3.170295	2.834666
1982Q3	3.279219	3.284674	2.965188
1982Q4	3.183741	3.202907	2.887296
1983Q1	3.036589	3.140574	2.902742
1983Q2	2.937201	3.065772	2.891053
1983Q3	2.955895	3.057318	2.890833
1983Q4	2.964131	3.057034	2.886211
1984Q1	2.900735	2.882817	2.681111
1984Q2	2.72415	2.729766	2.478373
1984Q3	2.693718	2.524315	2.400027
1984Q4	2.614829	2.492503	2.374521
1985Q1	2.47936	2.384496	2.209877
1985Q2	2.428906	2.38147	2.194001
1985Q3	2.171857	1.976239	1.860025
1985Q4	1.885435	1.869006	1.767371
1986Q1	1.652564	1.863348	1.757596
1986Q2	1.495562	1.80771	1.982839
1986Q3	1.407285	1.524195	1.83173
1986Q4	1.564802	1.545947	1.894445
1987Q1	1.614312	1.374094	1.658805
1987Q2	1.593676	1.366586	1.64928
1987Q3	1.535211	1.366584	1.646164
1987Q4	1.51926	1.364452	1.647426
1988Q1	1.510342	1.318746	1.627771
1988Q2	1.524461	1.305358	1.635977
1988Q3	1.513473	1.284918	1.633164
1988Q4	1.507553	1.280585	1.633258
1989Q1	1.507853	1.271458	1.634657
1989Q2	1.439403	1.145498	1.588356
1989Q3	1.394574	1.127529	1.595498
1989Q4	1.348198	1.006751	1.567877
1990Q1	1.322889	0.947335	1.570023
1990Q2	1.229626	0.787848	1.150632
1990Q3	1.145379	0.85376	1.098933
1990Q4	1.176852	1.013594	1.321329
1991Q1	1.220244	1.162238	1.373751
1991Q2	1.29083	1.181937	1.370447
1991Q3	1.304414	1.205041	1.369786
1991Q4	1.304751	1.216564	1.368139
1992Q1	1.29541	1.199011	1.338686
1992Q2	1.264367	1.190187	1.319493
1992Q3	1.258702	1.195175	1.320928
1992Q4	1.259273	1.206938	1.328261
1993Q1	1.261659	1.213226	1.326679
1993Q2	1.267086	1.232467	1.301395
1993Q3	1.250563	1.186304	1.264419
1993Q4	1.188559	1.108821	1.161261
1994Q1	1.190795	1.109114	1.154229
1994Q2	1.201717	1.11199	1.167942
1994Q3	1.130977	1.012	1.033397
1994Q4	0.808089	0.804168	0.536491
1995Q1	0.574802	0.573361	0.382527
1995Q2	0.390927	0.525058	0.387914
1995Q3	0.347626	0.469842	0.398037
1995Q4	0.3755	0.451957	0.445012
1996Q1	0.371408	0.445855	0.441387
1996Q2	0.39266	0.446075	0.474952
1996Q3	0.421132	0.445782	0.493445
1996Q4	0.52613	0.441922	0.546382
1997Q1	0.617291	0.452947	0.627542
1997Q2	0.616008	0.439813	0.620749
1997Q3	0.634965	0.450238	0.624681
1997Q4	0.639997	0.469553	0.637237
1998Q1	0.63779	0.491597	0.629629
1998Q2	0.627344	0.484029	0.621607
1998Q3	0.652098	0.477792	0.629818
1998Q4	0.704985	0.484769	0.661724
1999Q1	0.802269	0.563135	0.766261
1999Q2	0.849765	0.638173	0.812622
1999Q3	0.890594	0.722218	0.844244
1999Q4	0.900835	0.777347	0.842413
2000Q1	0.900734	0.813275	0.844365
2000Q2	0.891619	0.832153	0.826553
2000Q3	0.897042	0.825079	0.83347
2000Q4	0.918594	0.826558	0.85021
2001Q1	0.999539	0.882982	0.947676
2001Q2	1.099392	0.920992	1.048201
2001Q3	1.121441	0.951139	1.063669
2001Q4	1.121687	0.93953	1.084318
2002Q1	1.199222	0.940884	1.164315
2002Q2	1.204138	0.941817	1.154712
2002Q3	1.20034	0.941872	1.144875
2002Q4	1.171669	0.93814	1.127529
2003Q1	1.143917	0.889513	1.094377
2003Q2	1.123431	0.936046	1.090228
2003Q3	1.096483	0.928647	1.071903
2003Q4	1.128182	1.02264	1.10981
2004Q1	1.166139	1.044005	1.119817
2004Q2	1.166476	1.043208	1.120749
2004Q3	1.180471	1.134775	1.136201
2004Q4	1.121025	1.181027	1.099536
2005Q1	1.000738	1.159419	0.985126
2005Q2	0.907566	1.190066	0.923154
2005Q3	0.873674	1.203664	0.895646
2005Q4	0.974351	1.204888	0.958363
2006Q1	0.929498	1.194731	0.873031
2006Q2	0.967328	1.196246	0.884867
2006Q3	0.983924	1.205225	0.9189
2006Q4	1.102532	1.273054	0.979422
2007Q1	1.145544	1.350577	1.013389

Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: RMSE for CPI excluding food and energy prices (rolling 16-quarter estimates)
Year/quarter	Atkeson/Ohanian	Model 1 (Bivariate)	Model 3 (CPI excl. food and energy)
1974Q4	3.183879	2.004236	2.947946
1975Q1	3.323679	2.087009	3.006072
1975Q2	3.419476	2.082564	2.993222
1975Q3	3.413797	2.071889	3.007636
1975Q4	3.413722	2.082186	3.008969
1976Q1	3.413468	2.079782	3.028461
1976Q2	3.413439	2.121673	3.034554
1976Q3	3.414134	2.121992	3.03551
1976Q4	3.391546	2.100453	2.987945
1977Q1	3.333747	2.098816	2.926653
1977Q2	3.199031	2.092121	2.833835
1977Q3	2.861638	1.994993	2.557489
1977Q4	2.502802	2.012508	2.42392
1978Q1	2.15884	2.014919	2.163612
1978Q2	2.102319	2.018012	2.172957
1978Q3	2.142123	1.767631	1.803667
1978Q4	1.996516	1.245467	1.326725
1979Q1	1.793515	1.197614	1.302703
1979Q2	1.765761	1.270453	1.520031
1979Q3	1.806721	1.270789	1.512127
1979Q4	1.832327	1.265647	1.508821
1980Q1	1.859526	1.761557	1.826583
1980Q2	2.045898	2.006932	2.089334
1980Q3	2.045793	2.342908	2.426092
1980Q4	2.089951	2.356061	2.444246
1981Q1	2.123312	2.388226	2.459663
1981Q2	2.130253	2.393662	2.467144
1981Q3	2.360503	2.62064	2.76741
1981Q4	2.583404	2.652217	2.880145
1982Q1	2.716012	2.615706	2.890548
1982Q2	2.896894	2.681767	3.006574
1982Q3	2.977035	2.811836	3.132721
1982Q4	2.941625	2.817107	3.118532
1983Q1	2.855918	2.884904	3.108266
1983Q2	2.744393	2.875923	3.034733
1983Q3	2.741085	2.885513	3.025079
1983Q4	2.727335	2.882555	3.023218
1984Q1	2.707767	2.614387	2.825509
1984Q2	2.576479	2.394393	2.63511
1984Q3	2.587974	2.065981	2.338665
1984Q4	2.557488	2.050487	2.317213
1985Q1	2.531675	2.006677	2.299718
1985Q2	2.527178	1.999991	2.292877
1985Q3	2.293017	1.655749	1.881217
1985Q4	1.971642	1.477739	1.568235
1986Q1	1.675841	1.471595	1.498023
1986Q2	1.195281	1.467193	1.229995
1986Q3	0.824549	1.225316	0.834613
1986Q4	0.794048	1.195981	0.817381
1987Q1	0.806452	0.898158	0.653163
1987Q2	0.71632	0.807934	0.513827
1987Q3	0.54189	0.776653	0.498189
1987Q4	0.521024	0.773006	0.499344
1988Q1	0.521319	0.786209	0.48445
1988Q2	0.489834	0.785389	0.457097
1988Q3	0.407287	0.78691	0.3916
1988Q4	0.373979	0.787273	0.400391
1989Q1	0.360358	0.786191	0.397699
1989Q2	0.349684	0.786291	0.401353
1989Q3	0.423101	0.815992	0.49379
1989Q4	0.469263	0.839885	0.51007
1990Q1	0.492002	0.841823	0.493895
1990Q2	0.495458	0.595278	0.490702
1990Q3	0.523244	0.589167	0.541178
1990Q4	0.558688	0.603358	0.560144
1991Q1	0.659421	0.680102	0.660623
1991Q2	0.719984	0.682333	0.682395
1991Q3	0.761048	0.689992	0.710647
1991Q4	0.79007	0.689842	0.725794
1992Q1	0.791568	0.653672	0.718666
1992Q2	0.795714	0.653488	0.720511
1992Q3	0.797353	0.64995	0.720006
1992Q4	0.80014	0.650642	0.720048
1993Q1	0.8113	0.661809	0.735649
1993Q2	0.825084	0.676549	0.750384
1993Q3	0.794242	0.611903	0.691483
1993Q4	0.767772	0.57967	0.672284
1994Q1	0.737186	0.578189	0.656961
1994Q2	0.739247	0.584969	0.659873
1994Q3	0.719756	0.517593	0.617955
1994Q4	0.693103	0.456772	0.60078
1995Q1	0.57152	0.313332	0.446692
1995Q2	0.496306	0.335052	0.434755
1995Q3	0.41896	0.311593	0.373544
1995Q4	0.36626	0.303998	0.348588
1996Q1	0.367201	0.314577	0.345221
1996Q2	0.356305	0.315565	0.341611
1996Q3	0.360031	0.32756	0.351385
1996Q4	0.360442	0.325783	0.349852
1997Q1	0.338297	0.304763	0.323031
1997Q2	0.306074	0.275423	0.282421
1997Q3	0.294817	0.28627	0.289628
1997Q4	0.281503	0.281773	0.280799
1998Q1	0.282105	0.278041	0.282502
1998Q2	0.271484	0.266952	0.280401
1998Q3	0.283261	0.277986	0.291925
1998Q4	0.284362	0.271288	0.291418
1999Q1	0.284426	0.269825	0.290968
1999Q2	0.276186	0.251997	0.274818
1999Q3	0.291966	0.271725	0.290819
1999Q4	0.300408	0.284322	0.300524
2000Q1	0.301212	0.278434	0.301062
2000Q2	0.305175	0.27856	0.303146
2000Q3	0.295912	0.264459	0.29052
2000Q4	0.285659	0.256756	0.280173
2001Q1	0.282219	0.262592	0.274337
2001Q2	0.274757	0.263546	0.265895
2001Q3	0.290558	0.264143	0.276519
2001Q4	0.330857	0.288404	0.313527
2002Q1	0.371633	0.31187	0.345366
2002Q2	0.435884	0.358366	0.388603
2002Q3	0.48213	0.402566	0.429488
2002Q4	0.523991	0.449257	0.469801
2003Q1	0.538027	0.45965	0.473024
2003Q2	0.536623	0.483633	0.493985
2003Q3	0.53258	0.480275	0.491365
2003Q4	0.568749	0.523675	0.535412
2004Q1	0.605355	0.538569	0.553044
2004Q2	0.610246	0.537948	0.551761
2004Q3	0.613187	0.538638	0.552934
2004Q4	0.612337	0.538183	0.550819
2005Q1	0.612976	0.538723	0.552793
2005Q2	0.615794	0.540244	0.557323
2005Q3	0.63553	0.566447	0.607996
2005Q4	0.628543	0.559308	0.600022
2006Q1	0.617188	0.54868	0.584592
2006Q2	0.575707	0.546412	0.582459
2006Q3	0.556764	0.546133	0.57843
2006Q4	0.518041	0.50455	0.541888
2007Q1	0.506438	0.492743	0.537562

Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: Information coefficients for overall PCE prices (a1) and PCE prices excluding food and energy prices (a2)
Year/quarter	a1	a2
1975Q1	0.201733	0.851606
1975Q2	0.203207	0.851287
1975Q3	0.190398	0.859413
1975Q4	0.184809	0.862494
1976Q1	0.179367	0.866025
1976Q2	0.221414	0.851406
1976Q3	0.160196	0.875475
1976Q4	0.159094	0.876045
1977Q1	0.15069	0.881076
1977Q2	0.121645	0.900274
1977Q3	0.171222	0.868527
1977Q4	0.161685	0.874562
1978Q1	0.161748	0.874056
1978Q2	0.151691	0.880979
1978Q3	0.159436	0.876153
1978Q4	0.135135	0.891215
1979Q1	0.178312	0.867428
1979Q2	0.195067	0.752258
1979Q3	0.221087	0.696511
1979Q4	0.228169	0.674682
1980Q1	0.236195	0.685184
1980Q2	0.225711	0.689392
1980Q3	0.238856	0.662274
1980Q4	0.229325	0.668584
1981Q1	0.241911	0.649311
1981Q2	0.186132	0.72481
1981Q3	0.198837	0.731696
1981Q4	0.19571	0.721501
1982Q1	0.211122	0.706353
1982Q2	0.177933	0.738714
1982Q3	0.177422	0.7357
1982Q4	0.164749	0.738042
1983Q1	0.159975	0.745666
1983Q2	0.237234	0.686232
1983Q3	0.271827	0.596528
1983Q4	0.274034	0.540159
1984Q1	0.259475	0.5405
1984Q2	0.266452	0.535402
1984Q3	0.264329	0.532782
1984Q4	0.271018	0.534897
1985Q1	0.266873	0.520243
1985Q2	0.271743	0.510617
1985Q3	0.272926	0.506109
1985Q4	0.267537	0.508948
1986Q1	0.268903	0.499861
1986Q2	0.24126	0.524004
1986Q3	0.225935	0.54205
1986Q4	0.20214	0.542709
1987Q1	0.231113	0.542279
1987Q2	0.230551	0.545316
1987Q3	0.233274	0.510948
1987Q4	0.204006	0.498346
1988Q1	0.234815	0.499177
1988Q2	0.248481	0.453214
1988Q3	0.205525	0.431975
1988Q4	0.123424	0.506967
1989Q1	0.109546	0.534913
1989Q2	0.088005	0.470415
1989Q3	0.079134	0.446657
1989Q4	0.082389	0.440269
1990Q1	0.064437	0.44725
1990Q2	0.081127	0.441595
1990Q3	0.100559	0.42525
1990Q4	0.121921	0.428235
1991Q1	0.134873	0.402558
1991Q2	0.130058	0.407922
1991Q3	0.130284	0.408742
1991Q4	0.131655	0.407115
1992Q1	0.128013	0.40908
1992Q2	0.147319	0.402539
1992Q3	0.138628	0.403121
1992Q4	0.144368	0.399627
1993Q1	0.145487	0.404272
1993Q2	0.148045	0.394459
1993Q3	0.147242	0.398369
1993Q4	0.136059	0.404717
1994Q1	0.130915	0.414743
1994Q2	0.108669	0.423694
1994Q3	0.10278	0.441666
1994Q4	0.112751	0.417814
1995Q1	0.112647	0.420238
1995Q2	0.11282	0.422502
1995Q3	0.075956	0.392741
1995Q4	0.124114	0.31626
1996Q1	0.119098	0.303558
1996Q2	0.112201	0.279695
1996Q3	0.10404	0.266868
1996Q4	0.099764	0.260637
1997Q1	0.104382	0.264739
1997Q2	0.100347	0.236337
1997Q3	0.097836	0.231701
1997Q4	0.080291	0.240223
1998Q1	0.076248	0.563379
1998Q2	0.067069	0.315622
1998Q3	0.07152	0.329109
1998Q4	0.069688	0.324344
1999Q1	0.067927	0.325449
1999Q2	0.075094	0.385162
1999Q3	0.081523	0.391223
1999Q4	0.07398	0.412587
2000Q1	0.070894	0.427333
2000Q2	0.059475	0.391424
2000Q3	0.055304	0.407086
2000Q4	0.063126	0.429119
2001Q1	0.08863	0.392526
2001Q2	0.085754	0.547629
2001Q3	0.06696	0.375123
2001Q4	0.070172	0.35477
2002Q1	0.069231	0.33987
2002Q2	0.061067	0.340359
2002Q3	0.094798	0.469615
2002Q4	0.069936	0.341558
2003Q1	0.067279	0.335745
2003Q2	0.063869	0.340784
2003Q3	0.059084	0.34406
2003Q4	0.058711	0.358989
2004Q1	0.049977	0.393037
2004Q2	0.055048	0.388039
2004Q3	0.081153	0.536277
2004Q4	0.115466	0.371301
2005Q1	0.041421	0.355858
2005Q2	0.046001	0.340603
2005Q3	0.046224	0.338138
2005Q4	0.035924	0.342196
2006Q1	0.035213	0.364646
2006Q2	0.024028	0.350308
2006Q3	0.023736	0.303079
2006Q4	-0.000335	0.279795
2007Q1	-0.002886	0.279662
2007Q2	0.009633	0.247136
2007Q3	0.010627	0.240697
2007Q4	0.00928	0.230382

Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: Information coefficients for overall CPI (a1) and CPI excluding food and energy prices (a2)
Year/quarter	a1	a2
1975Q1	0.490678	0.388721
1975Q2	0.497014	0.496338
1975Q3	0.454278	0.505539
1975Q4	0.476896	0.473359
1976Q1	0.452837	0.516505
1976Q2	0.473808	0.515062
1976Q3	0.436969	0.512126
1976Q4	0.432025	0.50282
1977Q1	0.423305	0.501085
1977Q2	0.422386	0.500012
1977Q3	0.417352	0.506205
1977Q4	0.414067	0.507875
1978Q1	0.428911	0.490169
1978Q2	0.433088	0.516227
1978Q3	0.437193	0.522831
1978Q4	0.434096	0.536226
1979Q1	0.430551	0.535464
1979Q2	0.410472	0.571509
1979Q3	0.417002	0.574328
1979Q4	0.439714	0.560552
1980Q1	0.451946	0.595518
1980Q2	0.409523	0.56918
1980Q3	0.54124	0.558152
1980Q4	0.433807	0.322166
1981Q1	0.432547	0.325249
1981Q2	0.401082	0.340628
1981Q3	0.469919	0.299266
1981Q4	0.4328	0.312247
1982Q1	0.467791	0.284908
1982Q2	0.458744	0.290644
1982Q3	0.450831	0.295861
1982Q4	0.427504	0.299606
1983Q1	0.400686	0.311722
1983Q2	0.383452	0.325765
1983Q3	0.457007	0.316122
1983Q4	0.408555	0.310835
1984Q1	0.406283	0.310864
1984Q2	0.393564	0.322656
1984Q3	0.434499	0.36946
1984Q4	0.374886	0.329659
1985Q1	0.364785	0.362101
1985Q2	0.400746	0.323668
1985Q3	0.396161	0.320204
1985Q4	0.369435	0.339414
1986Q1	0.372652	0.33227
1986Q2	0.348117	0.369623
1986Q3	0.33317	0.403643
1986Q4	0.332585	0.394589
1987Q1	0.340295	0.38443
1987Q2	0.338827	0.387703
1987Q3	0.352726	0.370339
1987Q4	0.349745	0.3571
1988Q1	0.346733	0.353665
1988Q2	0.359722	0.332808
1988Q3	0.34221	0.350999
1988Q4	0.297633	0.398774
1989Q1	0.284011	0.421933
1989Q2	0.211824	0.423813
1989Q3	0.187895	0.396203
1989Q4	0.194287	0.390793
1990Q1	0.178923	0.398372
1990Q2	0.166985	0.408744
1990Q3	0.166246	0.411789
1990Q4	0.165628	0.413685
1991Q1	0.168065	0.407581
1991Q2	0.139335	0.486728
1991Q3	0.174041	0.416483
1991Q4	0.174424	0.415264
1992Q1	0.161396	0.515219
1992Q2	0.177685	0.411352
1992Q3	0.164861	0.398737
1992Q4	0.168094	0.383705
1993Q1	0.161595	0.385887
1993Q2	0.162123	0.380906
1993Q3	0.160053	0.363973
1993Q4	0.163944	0.348068
1994Q1	0.148709	0.356036
1994Q2	0.112011	0.402551
1994Q3	0.116789	0.49441
1994Q4	0.076247	0.563388
1995Q1	0.076247	0.563387
1995Q2	0.118371	0.492869
1995Q3	0.093897	0.510193
1995Q4	0.076248	0.563387
1996Q1	0.076247	0.563387
1996Q2	0.036003	0.479351
1996Q3	0.008482	0.331905
1996Q4	-0.059019	0.895077
1997Q1	-0.011904	0.601995
1997Q2	0.070948	0.684132
1997Q3	0.076236	0.563363
1997Q4	0.043779	0.455663
1998Q1	0.018727	0.470613
1998Q2	0.019785	0.471915
1998Q3	0.018611	0.470849
1998Q4	0.022264	0.449672
1999Q1	0.022102	0.439549
1999Q2	0.01896	0.440221
1999Q3	0.018559	0.440028
1999Q4	0.018134	0.435857
2000Q1	0.018068	0.442503
2000Q2	0.029452	0.484218
2000Q3	0.05534	0.511554
2000Q4	0.032666	0.484101
2001Q1	0.051971	0.461353
2001Q2	0.055944	0.450453
2001Q3	0.051091	0.443511
2001Q4	0.034918	0.468709
2002Q1	0.038837	0.486068
2002Q2	0.038357	0.490626
2002Q3	0.04043	0.502165
2002Q4	0.035096	0.48912
2003Q1	0.056651	0.51266
2003Q2	0.037159	0.566869
2003Q3	0.026726	0.547723
2003Q4	0.024451	0.545821
2004Q1	0.040883	0.497513
2004Q2	0.029437	0.536471
2004Q3	0.032815	0.520769
2004Q4	0.029315	0.531482
2005Q1	0.042557	0.562219
2005Q2	0.041791	0.492961
2005Q3	0.040971	0.431468
2005Q4	0.034621	0.477159
2006Q1	0.038148	0.497602
2006Q2	0.03675	0.50841
2006Q3	0.037331	0.505862
2006Q4	0.009202	0.496683
2007Q1	0.008336	0.501568
2007Q2	0.009771	0.528005
2007Q3	0.012861	0.480324
2007Q4	0.013103	0.459378

Return to Figure 8