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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: 2008-43 Screen Reader version ^♣

Distress in the Financial Sector and Economic Activity

Figure Data

Figure 1: Measure of default risk in the financial sector

date	median distance to default	weighted mean distance to default	default probability
Jan-73	4.62	4.67	0.00
Feb-73	4.52	4.53	0.00
Mar-73	4.61	4.49	0.00
Apr-73	4.51	4.37	0.00
May-73	4.23	4.26	0.00
Jun-73	4.37	4.14	0.00
Jul-73	4.51	4.12	0.00
Aug-73	4.46	4.23	0.00
Sep-73	4.45	4.18	0.00
Oct-73	4.10	4.13	0.00
Nov-73	3.71	3.88	0.01
Dec-73	3.56	3.77	0.02
Jan-74	3.78	3.91	0.01
Feb-74	3.95	4.04	0.00
Mar-74	3.91	3.86	0.01
Apr-74	3.48	3.41	0.03
May-74	2.94	2.93	0.18
Jun-74	2.55	2.53	0.57
Jul-74	2.30	2.31	1.11
Aug-74	2.31	2.29	1.07
Sep-74	2.24	2.26	1.26
Oct-74	2.34	2.30	0.99
Nov-74	2.52	2.47	0.62
Dec-74	2.57	2.50	0.52
Jan-75	2.58	2.63	0.51
Feb-75	2.88	2.93	0.22
Mar-75	3.28	3.22	0.05
Apr-75	3.50	3.51	0.03
May-75	3.81	3.85	0.01
Jun-75	3.75	3.88	0.01
Jul-75	3.68	3.79	0.01
Aug-75	3.35	3.43	0.05
Sep-75	3.00	3.05	0.14
Oct-75	3.04	2.87	0.13
Nov-75	3.09	2.93	0.11
Dec-75	3.12	3.04	0.10
Jan-76	3.28	3.32	0.06
Feb-76	3.57	3.59	0.02
Mar-76	3.67	3.87	0.01
Apr-76	3.99	4.20	0.00
May-76	4.46	4.65	0.00
Jun-76	4.81	4.92	0.00
Jul-76	5.41	5.25	0.00
Aug-76	5.29	5.10	0.00
Sep-76	5.01	4.95	0.00
Oct-76	4.85	4.94	0.00
Nov-76	4.71	4.82	0.00
Dec-76	4.61	4.80	0.00
Jan-77	4.99	4.99	0.00
Feb-77	5.44	5.28	0.00
Mar-77	5.86	5.48	0.00
Apr-77	6.15	5.54	0.00
May-77	6.42	5.73	0.00
Jun-77	6.29	5.71	0.00
Jul-77	5.41	5.50	0.00
Aug-77	5.67	5.59	0.00
Sep-77	5.45	5.26	0.00
Oct-77	5.40	4.94	0.00
Nov-77	5.12	4.94	0.00
Dec-77	4.96	4.97	0.00
Jan-78	5.15	5.01	0.00
Feb-78	5.18	5.06	0.00
Mar-78	5.01	4.77	0.00
Apr-78	4.64	4.32	0.00
May-78	4.77	4.44	0.00
Jun-78	4.81	4.53	0.00
Jul-78	4.55	4.42	0.00
Aug-78	4.79	4.42	0.00
Sep-78	4.62	4.37	0.00
Oct-78	4.25	4.02	0.00
Nov-78	3.94	4.13	0.01
Dec-78	4.44	4.38	0.00
Jan-79	4.61	4.60	0.00
Feb-79	4.87	4.99	0.00
Mar-79	5.31	5.26	0.00
Apr-79	5.73	5.51	0.00
May-79	5.73	5.71	0.00
Jun-79	5.24	5.35	0.00
Jul-79	4.89	4.88	0.00
Aug-79	4.66	4.58	0.00
Sep-79	4.06	4.14	0.00
Oct-79	3.77	3.75	0.01
Nov-79	3.98	3.91	0.00
Dec-79	4.05	4.01	0.00
Jan-80	3.89	3.95	0.01
Feb-80	3.63	3.68	0.01
Mar-80	3.30	3.31	0.05
Apr-80	3.21	3.32	0.08
May-80	3.55	3.66	0.02
Jun-80	4.05	4.10	0.00
Jul-80	4.26	4.37	0.00
Aug-80	4.39	4.46	0.00
Sep-80	4.41	4.29	0.00
Oct-80	4.11	4.02	0.00
Nov-80	3.76	3.75	0.01
Dec-80	3.49	3.56	0.02
Jan-81	3.67	3.78	0.01
Feb-81	4.08	4.05	0.00
Mar-81	4.33	4.10	0.00
Apr-81	4.42	4.08	0.00
May-81	4.17	4.01	0.00
Jun-81	3.78	3.87	0.01
Jul-81	3.92	3.87	0.01
Aug-81	3.85	3.92	0.01
Sep-81	3.72	3.85	0.01
Oct-81	3.84	3.92	0.01
Nov-81	3.60	3.99	0.02
Dec-81	3.89	4.00	0.01
Jan-82	3.70	3.78	0.01
Feb-82	3.50	3.70	0.03
Mar-82	3.46	3.68	0.03
Apr-82	3.50	3.80	0.03
May-82	3.45	3.66	0.03
Jun-82	3.24	3.34	0.06
Jul-82	2.99	2.97	0.15
Aug-82	2.63	2.68	0.43
Sep-82	2.50	2.60	0.62
Oct-82	2.44	2.52	0.73
Nov-82	2.53	2.66	0.58
Dec-82	2.80	2.82	0.26
Jan-83	3.00	2.96	0.14
Feb-83	3.04	3.03	0.13
Mar-83	3.16	3.17	0.08
Apr-83	3.30	3.40	0.05
May-83	3.43	3.59	0.03
Jun-83	3.50	3.67	0.03
Jul-83	3.55	3.68	0.02
Aug-83	3.80	3.87	0.01
Sep-83	3.82	3.84	0.01
Oct-83	3.77	3.70	0.01
Nov-83	3.77	3.70	0.01
Dec-83	3.89	3.82	0.01
Jan-84	3.90	3.87	0.00
Feb-84	3.91	3.86	0.01
Mar-84	3.77	3.90	0.01
Apr-84	3.90	3.80	0.00
May-84	3.48	3.48	0.03
Jun-84	3.21	3.21	0.07
Jul-84	2.87	3.09	0.21
Aug-84	3.04	3.12	0.19
Sep-84	3.31	3.21	0.05
Oct-84	3.44	3.43	0.03
Nov-84	3.87	3.71	0.01
Dec-84	3.59	3.71	0.02
Jan-85	3.55	3.64	0.02
Feb-85	3.87	3.84	0.01
Mar-85	4.19	4.19	0.00
Apr-85	4.21	4.30	0.00
May-85	4.29	4.22	0.00
Jun-85	4.27	4.26	0.00
Jul-85	4.31	4.28	0.00
Aug-85	4.47	4.39	0.00
Sep-85	4.08	4.11	0.00
Oct-85	3.97	3.88	0.00
Nov-85	3.70	3.64	0.01
Dec-85	3.33	3.31	0.05
Jan-86	3.05	3.07	0.12
Feb-86	3.12	3.08	0.09
Mar-86	3.27	3.15	0.05
Apr-86	3.46	3.34	0.03
May-86	3.42	3.53	0.03
Jun-86	3.47	3.50	0.03
Jul-86	3.49	3.42	0.03
Aug-86	3.42	3.45	0.03
Sep-86	3.42	3.49	0.03
Oct-86	3.51	3.69	0.02
Nov-86	3.50	3.69	0.02
Dec-86	3.35	3.52	0.04
Jan-87	3.31	3.46	0.05
Feb-87	3.41	3.46	0.04
Mar-87	3.42	3.55	0.03
Apr-87	3.38	3.41	0.04
May-87	3.05	3.28	0.12
Jun-87	3.28	3.23	0.06
Jul-87	3.03	3.06	0.12
Aug-87	2.58	2.63	0.62
Sep-87	2.21	2.15	1.55
Oct-87	1.66	1.74	4.92
Nov-87	1.92	1.84	2.79
Dec-87	1.88	1.94	3.06
Jan-88	2.17	2.17	1.60
Feb-88	2.50	2.58	0.66
Mar-88	2.82	2.89	0.24
Apr-88	3.14	3.11	0.09
May-88	3.38	3.33	0.04
Jun-88	3.43	3.42	0.03
Jul-88	3.56	3.61	0.02
Aug-88	3.71	3.88	0.01
Sep-88	4.08	4.15	0.00
Oct-88	4.28	4.31	0.00
Nov-88	4.26	4.38	0.00
Dec-88	4.19	4.34	0.00
Jan-89	4.50	4.28	0.00
Feb-89	4.09	4.14	0.00
Mar-89	4.13	4.01	0.00
Apr-89	4.10	3.97	0.00
May-89	3.91	3.86	0.00
Jun-89	3.89	3.68	0.01
Jul-89	3.78	3.64	0.01
Aug-89	3.67	3.52	0.01
Sep-89	3.26	3.12	0.06
Oct-89	3.15	2.87	0.08
Nov-89	3.09	3.08	0.11
Dec-89	3.02	3.11	0.13
Jan-90	2.98	3.13	0.15
Feb-90	3.25	3.19	0.06
Mar-90	3.30	3.15	0.05
Apr-90	3.23	3.05	0.06
May-90	3.07	2.93	0.11
Jun-90	2.86	2.66	0.22
Jul-90	2.59	2.37	0.49
Aug-90	2.17	2.03	1.56
Sep-90	1.83	1.74	3.39
Oct-90	1.74	1.62	4.12
Nov-90	1.78	1.65	3.78
Dec-90	1.81	1.70	3.48
Jan-91	1.93	2.09	2.71
Feb-91	2.06	2.18	2.01
Mar-91	2.17	2.30	1.52
Apr-91	2.28	2.40	1.16
May-91	2.53	2.59	0.57
Jun-91	2.57	2.62	0.51
Jul-91	2.66	2.61	0.41
Aug-91	2.66	2.67	0.40
Sep-91	2.74	2.73	0.31
Oct-91	2.59	2.62	0.49
Nov-91	2.51	2.53	0.62
Dec-91	2.41	2.40	0.81
Jan-92	2.47	2.45	0.68
Feb-92	2.85	2.59	0.22
Mar-92	2.95	2.65	0.16
Apr-92	3.05	2.61	0.12
May-92	3.25	2.80	0.06
Jun-92	3.32	2.89	0.04
Jul-92	3.38	3.12	0.04
Aug-92	3.63	3.39	0.01
Sep-92	3.56	3.47	0.02
Oct-92	3.28	3.49	0.05
Nov-92	3.39	3.61	0.04
Dec-92	3.37	3.46	0.04
Jan-93	3.25	3.27	0.06
Feb-93	3.27	3.27	0.05
Mar-93	3.26	3.27	0.06
Apr-93	3.29	3.21	0.05
May-93	3.36	3.33	0.04
Jun-93	3.52	3.48	0.02
Jul-93	3.87	3.74	0.01
Aug-93	4.06	4.02	0.00
Sep-93	3.91	3.93	0.01
Oct-93	3.63	3.83	0.01
Nov-93	3.83	3.94	0.01
Dec-93	4.01	3.99	0.00
Jan-94	3.94	3.80	0.00
Feb-94	4.04	3.85	0.00
Mar-94	3.92	3.83	0.00
Apr-94	3.81	3.79	0.01
May-94	3.87	4.00	0.01
Jun-94	4.09	4.22	0.00
Jul-94	4.48	4.47	0.00
Aug-94	4.50	4.65	0.00
Sep-94	4.22	4.40	0.00
Oct-94	4.07	4.09	0.00
Nov-94	3.82	3.95	0.01
Dec-94	3.87	3.97	0.01
Jan-95	4.07	4.06	0.00
Feb-95	4.44	4.29	0.00
Mar-95	4.42	4.39	0.00
Apr-95	4.36	4.33	0.00
May-95	3.99	4.17	0.00
Jun-95	3.78	3.99	0.01
Jul-95	4.16	4.04	0.00
Aug-95	4.06	3.97	0.00
Sep-95	3.59	3.66	0.02
Oct-95	3.29	3.27	0.05
Nov-95	3.23	3.12	0.06
Dec-95	3.37	2.99	0.04
Jan-96	3.32	2.94	0.05
Feb-96	3.34	2.93	0.04
Mar-96	3.35	2.96	0.04
Apr-96	3.38	2.83	0.04
May-96	3.63	3.11	0.02
Jun-96	3.61	3.24	0.02
Jul-96	3.41	3.34	0.03
Aug-96	3.54	3.63	0.02
Sep-96	3.71	3.82	0.01
Oct-96	3.95	3.83	0.00
Nov-96	3.71	3.63	0.01
Dec-96	3.41	3.46	0.03
Jan-97	3.49	3.31	0.03
Feb-97	3.43	3.14	0.03
Mar-97	3.20	2.97	0.07
Apr-97	3.10	2.90	0.10
May-97	3.18	2.98	0.08
Jun-97	3.30	3.05	0.05
Jul-97	3.34	2.97	0.04
Aug-97	3.34	2.94	0.04
Sep-97	3.26	2.84	0.06
Oct-97	2.91	2.57	0.20
Nov-97	2.75	2.51	0.32
Dec-97	3.03	2.64	0.12
Jan-98	3.15	2.74	0.08
Feb-98	3.29	2.90	0.05
Mar-98	3.15	2.81	0.08
Apr-98	3.01	2.68	0.13
May-98	3.03	2.75	0.13
Jun-98	2.78	2.56	0.29
Jul-98	2.15	2.05	1.67
Aug-98	1.66	1.65	5.23
Sep-98	1.50	1.41	6.70
Oct-98	1.54	1.35	6.23
Nov-98	1.74	1.48	4.15
Dec-98	1.97	1.66	2.49
Jan-99	2.08	1.86	1.88
Feb-99	2.24	2.12	1.25
Mar-99	2.51	2.33	0.65
Apr-99	2.55	2.45	0.56
May-99	2.63	2.50	0.44
Jun-99	2.72	2.64	0.33
Jul-99	2.79	2.69	0.27
Aug-99	2.59	2.48	0.48
Sep-99	2.41	2.35	0.81
Oct-99	2.10	2.15	1.82
Nov-99	2.14	2.15	1.65
Dec-99	2.16	2.13	1.57
Jan-00	2.04	2.08	2.07
Feb-00	2.13	2.09	1.68
Mar-00	1.92	1.94	2.78
Apr-00	2.08	1.98	1.93
May-00	2.18	2.12	1.47
Jun-00	2.24	2.21	1.29
Jul-00	2.40	2.39	0.81
Aug-00	2.45	2.47	0.72
Sep-00	2.43	2.29	0.78
Oct-00	2.29	2.10	1.10
Nov-00	2.25	2.13	1.23
Dec-00	2.20	2.07	1.41
Jan-01	2.27	2.15	1.19
Feb-01	2.47	2.16	0.68
Mar-01	2.38	2.05	0.89
Apr-01	2.51	2.28	0.69
May-01	3.06	2.80	0.13
Jun-01	3.12	3.05	0.10
Jul-01	3.27	3.10	0.06
Aug-01	2.90	2.90	0.20
Sep-01	2.53	2.49	0.57
Oct-01	2.62	2.58	0.44
Nov-01	2.98	2.89	0.15
Dec-01	3.19	3.14	0.07
Jan-02	3.16	3.12	0.08
Feb-02	3.15	3.12	0.09
Mar-02	3.30	3.24	0.06
Apr-02	3.23	3.24	0.07
May-02	3.42	3.00	0.04
Jun-02	2.82	2.57	0.27
Jul-02	2.38	2.17	0.92
Aug-02	2.34	2.15	1.03
Sep-02	2.20	2.12	1.46
Oct-02	2.24	2.13	1.38
Nov-02	2.75	2.52	0.34
Dec-02	3.20	2.90	0.08
Jan-03	3.47	3.21	0.03
Feb-03	3.51	3.36	0.02
Mar-03	3.32	3.30	0.05
Apr-03	3.46	3.62	0.03
May-03	3.71	3.97	0.01
Jun-03	3.81	4.07	0.01
Jul-03	4.06	4.23	0.00
Aug-03	4.36	4.55	0.00
Sep-03	4.28	4.59	0.00
Oct-03	4.50	4.71	0.00
Nov-03	4.82	5.00	0.00
Dec-03	4.67	5.17	0.00
Jan-04	4.69	5.06	0.00
Feb-04	4.83	4.97	0.00
Mar-04	4.61	4.66	0.00
Apr-04	4.74	4.39	0.00
May-04	4.81	4.40	0.00
Jun-04	5.14	4.63	0.00
Jul-04	4.82	4.75	0.00
Aug-04	5.17	4.94	0.00
Sep-04	5.20	4.91	0.00
Oct-04	5.18	4.91	0.00
Nov-04	5.48	5.20	0.00
Dec-04	5.65	5.55	0.00
Jan-05	5.67	5.83	0.00
Feb-05	5.51	5.94	0.00
Mar-05	5.42	5.80	0.00
Apr-05	5.08	5.80	0.00
May-05	5.43	6.25	0.00
Jun-05	5.99	6.74	0.00
Jul-05	6.07	6.70	0.00
Aug-05	6.04	6.72	0.00
Sep-05	5.41	6.40	0.00
Oct-05	5.23	5.92	0.00
Nov-05	5.59	5.89	0.00
Dec-05	5.63	5.98	0.00
Jan-06	5.08	5.58	0.00
Feb-06	5.30	5.52	0.00
Mar-06	5.16	5.48	0.00
Apr-06	4.76	5.11	0.00
May-06	5.04	4.97	0.00
Jun-06	4.96	4.96	0.00
Jul-06	4.72	5.14	0.00
Aug-06	5.52	5.82	0.00
Sep-06	6.33	6.37	0.00
Oct-06	5.99	6.30	0.00
Nov-06	5.58	6.01	0.00
Dec-06	5.86	5.55	0.00
Jan-07	4.89	5.12	0.00
Feb-07	4.73	4.65	0.00
Mar-07	4.29	4.40	0.00
Apr-07	4.29	4.77	0.00
May-07	5.00	4.90	0.00
Jun-07	4.24	4.30	0.00
Jul-07	3.13	3.42	0.11
Aug-07	2.66	2.90	0.40
Sep-07	2.93	2.86	0.17
Oct-07	2.62	2.54	0.49
Nov-07	2.18	2.21	1.48
Dec-07	2.27	2.30	1.17
Jan-08	2.26	2.32	1.20

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Interquartile range of the distance to default measure

date	Interquartile range
Jan-73	1.10
Feb-73	1.34
Mar-73	1.67
Apr-73	1.00
May-73	0.98
Jun-73	1.12
Jul-73	1.34
Aug-73	1.58
Sep-73	1.75
Oct-73	1.27
Nov-73	1.24
Dec-73	1.34
Jan-74	1.01
Feb-74	0.87
Mar-74	1.13
Apr-74	0.84
May-74	0.97
Jun-74	0.94
Jul-74	0.88
Aug-74	0.87
Sep-74	0.84
Oct-74	0.77
Nov-74	0.76
Dec-74	0.76
Jan-75	0.82
Feb-75	0.82
Mar-75	0.87
Apr-75	0.88
May-75	0.91
Jun-75	1.01
Jul-75	1.00
Aug-75	0.94
Sep-75	1.10
Oct-75	1.24
Nov-75	0.93
Dec-75	0.82
Jan-76	0.98
Feb-76	1.23
Mar-76	1.47
Apr-76	1.76
May-76	1.92
Jun-76	1.87
Jul-76	2.01
Aug-76	1.28
Sep-76	1.30
Oct-76	1.31
Nov-76	1.45
Dec-76	1.59
Jan-77	1.36
Feb-77	1.64
Mar-77	2.03
Apr-77	2.25
May-77	2.20
Jun-77	2.33
Jul-77	2.36
Aug-77	3.22
Sep-77	2.97
Oct-77	2.37
Nov-77	1.81
Dec-77	1.72
Jan-78	1.72
Feb-78	1.93
Mar-78	2.37
Apr-78	2.01
May-78	2.03
Jun-78	1.62
Jul-78	0.98
Aug-78	1.31
Sep-78	1.38
Oct-78	1.43
Nov-78	1.39
Dec-78	1.47
Jan-79	1.55
Feb-79	2.06
Mar-79	1.61
Apr-79	2.18
May-79	2.11
Jun-79	1.65
Jul-79	1.51
Aug-79	1.16
Sep-79	1.05
Oct-79	0.88
Nov-79	0.92
Dec-79	1.00
Jan-80	0.88
Feb-80	0.56
Mar-80	1.09
Apr-80	0.52
May-80	0.62
Jun-80	0.72
Jul-80	0.83
Aug-80	0.94
Sep-80	1.48
Oct-80	1.11
Nov-80	0.87
Dec-80	0.91
Jan-81	1.12
Feb-81	1.17
Mar-81	1.40
Apr-81	1.45
May-81	1.36
Jun-81	1.15
Jul-81	1.10
Aug-81	1.54
Sep-81	1.94
Oct-81	1.62
Nov-81	1.09
Dec-81	1.25
Jan-82	1.24
Feb-82	1.20
Mar-82	0.93
Apr-82	0.87
May-82	0.96
Jun-82	1.22
Jul-82	0.89
Aug-82	0.62
Sep-82	0.54
Oct-82	0.59
Nov-82	0.71
Dec-82	0.72
Jan-83	0.66
Feb-83	0.63
Mar-83	0.55
Apr-83	0.67
May-83	0.84
Jun-83	1.04
Jul-83	1.04
Aug-83	1.21
Sep-83	1.07
Oct-83	0.99
Nov-83	0.77
Dec-83	0.89
Jan-84	1.71
Feb-84	1.49
Mar-84	1.49
Apr-84	1.34
May-84	1.33
Jun-84	1.11
Jul-84	1.08
Aug-84	1.02
Sep-84	1.11
Oct-84	1.33
Nov-84	1.30
Dec-84	1.38
Jan-85	1.44
Feb-85	0.92
Mar-85	1.28
Apr-85	1.43
May-85	1.45
Jun-85	1.45
Jul-85	1.34
Aug-85	1.26
Sep-85	1.45
Oct-85	1.30
Nov-85	1.29
Dec-85	0.98
Jan-86	0.83
Feb-86	0.66
Mar-86	0.62
Apr-86	0.76
May-86	1.11
Jun-86	1.13
Jul-86	1.13
Aug-86	0.87
Sep-86	0.87
Oct-86	1.37
Nov-86	1.67
Dec-86	1.67
Jan-87	1.16
Feb-87	0.65
Mar-87	0.74
Apr-87	0.91
May-87	1.08
Jun-87	1.21
Jul-87	1.19
Aug-87	1.12
Sep-87	1.03
Oct-87	0.74
Nov-87	0.67
Dec-87	0.59
Jan-88	0.88
Feb-88	0.92
Mar-88	0.91
Apr-88	0.62
May-88	0.35
Jun-88	0.60
Jul-88	0.72
Aug-88	0.94
Sep-88	0.96
Oct-88	1.21
Nov-88	1.45
Dec-88	1.27
Jan-89	1.28
Feb-89	1.24
Mar-89	1.08
Apr-89	1.12
May-89	1.09
Jun-89	0.88
Jul-89	0.83
Aug-89	0.93
Sep-89	0.91
Oct-89	0.88
Nov-89	0.79
Dec-89	0.71
Jan-90	0.62
Feb-90	0.67
Mar-90	0.76
Apr-90	0.68
May-90	0.76
Jun-90	0.59
Jul-90	0.50
Aug-90	0.47
Sep-90	0.71
Oct-90	0.56
Nov-90	0.46
Dec-90	0.40
Jan-91	0.34
Feb-91	0.34
Mar-91	0.41
Apr-91	0.42
May-91	0.60
Jun-91	0.89
Jul-91	1.02
Aug-91	0.68
Sep-91	0.41
Oct-91	0.58
Nov-91	0.64
Dec-91	0.70
Jan-92	1.07
Feb-92	1.01
Mar-92	0.86
Apr-92	1.08
May-92	1.12
Jun-92	1.10
Jul-92	1.20
Aug-92	1.68
Sep-92	1.06
Oct-92	1.03
Nov-92	1.41
Dec-92	0.77
Jan-93	0.69
Feb-93	0.62
Mar-93	0.54
Apr-93	0.68
May-93	0.69
Jun-93	0.70
Jul-93	0.83
Aug-93	0.58
Sep-93	0.71
Oct-93	0.99
Nov-93	0.98
Dec-93	1.35
Jan-94	1.36
Feb-94	1.62
Mar-94	1.51
Apr-94	1.00
May-94	0.95
Jun-94	0.74
Jul-94	1.20
Aug-94	1.52
Sep-94	1.17
Oct-94	0.78
Nov-94	0.84
Dec-94	1.01
Jan-95	1.17
Feb-95	1.37
Mar-95	1.58
Apr-95	1.88
May-95	1.68
Jun-95	1.60
Jul-95	1.95
Aug-95	2.03
Sep-95	1.55
Oct-95	1.10
Nov-95	1.28
Dec-95	1.69
Jan-96	1.54
Feb-96	1.90
Mar-96	1.54
Apr-96	0.97
May-96	0.81
Jun-96	1.37
Jul-96	1.32
Aug-96	1.36
Sep-96	1.22
Oct-96	1.31
Nov-96	0.95
Dec-96	0.53
Jan-97	0.87
Feb-97	0.88
Mar-97	0.75
Apr-97	0.74
May-97	0.99
Jun-97	1.05
Jul-97	1.43
Aug-97	1.31
Sep-97	1.11
Oct-97	1.19
Nov-97	1.16
Dec-97	1.19
Jan-98	1.11
Feb-98	0.83
Mar-98	1.04
Apr-98	1.06
May-98	1.06
Jun-98	0.98
Jul-98	0.68
Aug-98	0.51
Sep-98	0.72
Oct-98	0.88
Nov-98	1.11
Dec-98	1.24
Jan-99	1.27
Feb-99	1.28
Mar-99	1.29
Apr-99	0.81
May-99	0.35
Jun-99	0.64
Jul-99	0.79
Aug-99	0.62
Sep-99	0.52
Oct-99	0.47
Nov-99	0.44
Dec-99	0.43
Jan-00	0.35
Feb-00	0.36
Mar-00	0.45
Apr-00	0.35
May-00	0.36
Jun-00	0.43
Jul-00	0.58
Aug-00	0.88
Sep-00	0.88
Oct-00	0.66
Nov-00	0.85
Dec-00	0.94
Jan-01	1.12
Feb-01	1.20
Mar-01	1.03
Apr-01	1.20
May-01	1.69
Jun-01	1.62
Jul-01	1.84
Aug-01	1.29
Sep-01	0.63
Oct-01	1.15
Nov-01	1.60
Dec-01	2.38
Jan-02	2.18
Feb-02	1.79
Mar-02	1.91
Apr-02	1.85
May-02	1.74
Jun-02	1.26
Jul-02	0.86
Aug-02	0.84
Sep-02	0.66
Oct-02	0.70
Nov-02	0.82
Dec-02	0.99
Jan-03	1.16
Feb-03	1.08
Mar-03	1.01
Apr-03	1.13
May-03	1.34
Jun-03	1.52
Jul-03	1.36
Aug-03	1.36
Sep-03	1.66
Oct-03	1.55
Nov-03	2.03
Dec-03	2.13
Jan-04	2.07
Feb-04	1.89
Mar-04	1.69
Apr-04	1.49
May-04	1.40
Jun-04	1.39
Jul-04	2.33
Aug-04	2.27
Sep-04	1.51
Oct-04	1.33
Nov-04	2.19
Dec-04	1.92
Jan-05	1.95
Feb-05	1.58
Mar-05	0.96
Apr-05	1.26
May-05	1.52
Jun-05	2.08
Jul-05	2.03
Aug-05	1.53
Sep-05	1.11
Oct-05	1.57
Nov-05	1.60
Dec-05	1.65
Jan-06	1.56
Feb-06	1.64
Mar-06	1.96
Apr-06	1.89
May-06	1.83
Jun-06	2.07
Jul-06	1.99
Aug-06	2.65
Sep-06	3.10
Oct-06	3.88
Nov-06	3.85
Dec-06	3.23
Jan-07	3.08
Feb-07	2.21
Mar-07	1.79
Apr-07	1.54
May-07	1.31
Jun-07	1.04
Jul-07	0.62
Aug-07	0.55
Sep-07	0.83
Oct-07	0.71
Nov-07	0.45
Dec-07	0.52
Jan-08	0.44

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Measure of default risk for Continental Illinois

Date	Distance to Default	Probability of default
1-3-80	0.00	4.64
1-4-80	0.00	4.63
1-7-80	0.00	4.62
1-8-80	0.00	4.59
1-9-80	0.00	4.56
1-10-80	0.00	4.52
1-11-80	0.00	4.48
1-14-80	0.00	4.43
1-15-80	0.00	4.37
1-16-80	0.00	4.31
1-17-80	0.00	4.24
1-18-80	0.00	4.19
1-21-80	0.00	4.13
1-22-80	0.00	4.07
1-23-80	0.00	4.01
1-24-80	0.00	3.98
1-25-80	0.00	3.95
1-28-80	0.00	3.91
1-29-80	0.01	3.88
1-30-80	0.01	3.84
1-31-80	0.01	3.80
2-1-80	0.01	3.75
2-4-80	0.01	3.69
2-5-80	0.01	3.63
2-6-80	0.02	3.56
2-7-80	0.02	3.49
2-8-80	0.03	3.42
2-11-80	0.04	3.35
2-13-80	0.05	3.29
2-14-80	0.06	3.26
2-15-80	0.06	3.23
2-19-80	0.07	3.19
2-20-80	0.08	3.15
2-21-80	0.10	3.10
2-22-80	0.11	3.06
2-25-80	0.13	3.01
2-26-80	0.15	2.97
2-27-80	0.16	2.94
2-28-80	0.18	2.91
2-29-80	0.20	2.88
3-3-80	0.22	2.84
3-4-80	0.25	2.81
3-5-80	0.26	2.79
3-6-80	0.28	2.77
3-7-80	0.30	2.75
3-10-80	0.33	2.71
3-11-80	0.37	2.68
3-12-80	0.42	2.64
3-13-80	0.48	2.59
3-14-80	0.55	2.54
3-17-80	0.58	2.52
3-18-80	0.63	2.49
3-19-80	0.70	2.46
3-20-80	0.76	2.43
3-21-80	0.80	2.41
3-24-80	0.82	2.40
3-25-80	0.86	2.38
3-26-80	0.90	2.37
3-27-80	0.95	2.34
3-28-80	0.98	2.33
4-2-80	0.84	2.39
4-3-80	0.70	2.46
4-7-80	0.59	2.52
4-8-80	0.48	2.59
4-9-80	0.40	2.66
4-10-80	0.32	2.72
4-11-80	0.26	2.79
4-14-80	0.21	2.86
4-15-80	0.17	2.92
4-16-80	0.14	2.99
4-17-80	0.11	3.05
4-18-80	0.09	3.12
4-21-80	0.07	3.18
4-22-80	0.06	3.24
4-23-80	0.05	3.29
4-24-80	0.04	3.35
4-25-80	0.03	3.40
4-28-80	0.03	3.44
4-29-80	0.03	3.48
4-30-80	0.02	3.51
5-1-80	0.02	3.54
5-2-80	0.02	3.56
5-5-80	0.01	3.62
5-6-80	0.01	3.68
5-7-80	0.01	3.74
5-8-80	0.01	3.79
5-9-80	0.01	3.86
5-12-80	0.00	3.92
5-13-80	0.00	3.98
5-14-80	0.00	4.03
5-15-80	0.00	4.07
5-16-80	0.00	4.11
5-19-80	0.00	4.14
5-20-80	0.00	4.16
5-21-80	0.00	4.19
5-22-80	0.00	4.21
5-23-80	0.00	4.25
5-27-80	0.00	4.29
5-28-80	0.00	4.33
5-29-80	0.00	4.36
5-30-80	0.00	4.39
6-2-80	0.00	4.41
6-3-80	0.00	4.43
6-4-80	0.00	4.44
6-5-80	0.00	4.46
6-6-80	0.00	4.46
6-9-80	0.00	4.46
6-10-80	0.00	4.46
6-11-80	0.00	4.45
6-12-80	0.00	4.44
6-13-80	0.00	4.43
6-16-80	0.00	4.44
6-17-80	0.00	4.44
6-18-80	0.00	4.44
6-19-80	0.00	4.42
6-20-80	0.00	4.40
6-23-80	0.00	4.37
6-24-80	0.00	4.33
6-25-80	0.00	4.32
6-26-80	0.00	4.31
6-27-80	0.00	4.29
7-2-80	0.00	4.28
7-3-80	0.00	4.26
7-7-80	0.00	4.25
7-8-80	0.00	4.22
7-9-80	0.00	4.20
7-10-80	0.00	4.16
7-11-80	0.00	4.12
7-14-80	0.00	4.13
7-15-80	0.00	4.14
7-16-80	0.00	4.15
7-17-80	0.00	4.16
7-18-80	0.00	4.17
7-21-80	0.00	4.22
7-22-80	0.00	4.25
7-23-80	0.00	4.29
7-24-80	0.00	4.33
7-25-80	0.00	4.37
7-28-80	0.00	4.41
7-29-80	0.00	4.44
7-30-80	0.00	4.46
7-31-80	0.00	4.48
8-1-80	0.00	4.49
8-4-80	0.00	4.50
8-5-80	0.00	4.50
8-6-80	0.00	4.49
8-7-80	0.00	4.49
8-8-80	0.00	4.50
8-11-80	0.00	4.49
8-12-80	0.00	4.48
8-13-80	0.00	4.49
8-14-80	0.00	4.49
8-15-80	0.00	4.50
8-18-80	0.00	4.53
8-19-80	0.00	4.55
8-20-80	0.00	4.57
8-21-80	0.00	4.58
8-22-80	0.00	4.59
8-25-80	0.00	4.60
8-26-80	0.00	4.62
8-27-80	0.00	4.63
8-28-80	0.00	4.64
8-29-80	0.00	4.62
9-2-80	0.00	4.61
9-3-80	0.00	4.63
9-4-80	0.00	4.64
9-5-80	0.00	4.64
9-8-80	0.00	4.66
9-9-80	0.00	4.67
9-10-80	0.00	4.67
9-11-80	0.00	4.67
9-12-80	0.00	4.65
9-15-80	0.00	4.63
9-16-80	0.00	4.62
9-17-80	0.00	4.60
9-18-80	0.00	4.57
9-19-80	0.00	4.54
9-22-80	0.00	4.50
9-23-80	0.00	4.46
9-24-80	0.00	4.42
9-25-80	0.00	4.38
9-26-80	0.00	4.39
9-29-80	0.00	4.38
10-2-80	0.00	4.42
10-3-80	0.00	4.44
10-6-80	0.00	4.47
10-7-80	0.00	4.51
10-8-80	0.00	4.54
10-9-80	0.00	4.56
10-10-80	0.00	4.59
10-14-80	0.00	4.61
10-15-80	0.00	4.62
10-16-80	0.00	4.64
10-17-80	0.00	4.65
10-20-80	0.00	4.65
10-21-80	0.00	4.64
10-22-80	0.00	4.63
10-23-80	0.00	4.61
10-24-80	0.00	4.62
10-27-80	0.00	4.61
10-28-80	0.00	4.60
10-29-80	0.00	4.58
10-30-80	0.00	4.55
10-31-80	0.00	4.51
11-3-80	0.00	4.47
11-5-80	0.00	4.42
11-6-80	0.00	4.37
11-7-80	0.00	4.31
11-10-80	0.00	4.26
11-12-80	0.00	4.19
11-13-80	0.00	4.12
11-14-80	0.00	4.05
11-17-80	0.00	3.98
11-18-80	0.00	3.89
11-19-80	0.01	3.81
11-20-80	0.01	3.72
11-21-80	0.01	3.64
11-24-80	0.02	3.55
11-25-80	0.03	3.46
11-26-80	0.04	3.37
11-28-80	0.05	3.29
12-1-80	0.06	3.25
12-2-80	0.06	3.22
12-3-80	0.07	3.18
12-4-80	0.09	3.13
12-5-80	0.10	3.08
12-8-80	0.12	3.03
12-9-80	0.15	2.97
12-10-80	0.18	2.91
12-11-80	0.22	2.85
12-12-80	0.27	2.79
12-15-80	0.32	2.72
12-16-80	0.39	2.66
12-17-80	0.46	2.60
12-18-80	0.49	2.58
12-19-80	0.52	2.56
12-22-80	0.55	2.54
12-23-80	0.59	2.52
12-24-80	0.59	2.52
12-26-80	0.60	2.51
12-29-80	0.62	2.50
12-30-80	0.65	2.48
1-5-81	0.58	2.52
1-6-81	0.50	2.58
1-7-81	0.42	2.63
1-8-81	0.36	2.69
1-9-81	0.30	2.75
1-12-81	0.25	2.81
1-13-81	0.21	2.86
1-14-81	0.18	2.91
1-15-81	0.15	2.96
1-16-81	0.13	3.02
1-19-81	0.10	3.08
1-20-81	0.09	3.13
1-21-81	0.07	3.18
1-22-81	0.06	3.23
1-23-81	0.05	3.27
1-26-81	0.05	3.31
1-27-81	0.04	3.34
1-28-81	0.04	3.37
1-29-81	0.03	3.41
1-30-81	0.03	3.45
2-2-81	0.02	3.49
2-3-81	0.02	3.55
2-4-81	0.02	3.61
2-5-81	0.01	3.69
2-6-81	0.01	3.77
2-9-81	0.01	3.85
2-10-81	0.00	3.94
2-11-81	0.00	4.02
2-13-81	0.00	4.09
2-17-81	0.00	4.16
2-18-81	0.00	4.23
2-19-81	0.00	4.29
2-20-81	0.00	4.35
2-23-81	0.00	4.40
2-24-81	0.00	4.45
2-25-81	0.00	4.49
2-26-81	0.00	4.53
2-27-81	0.00	4.56
3-2-81	0.00	4.58
3-3-81	0.00	4.61
3-4-81	0.00	4.63
3-5-81	0.00	4.66
3-6-81	0.00	4.69
3-9-81	0.00	4.72
3-10-81	0.00	4.77
3-11-81	0.00	4.81
3-12-81	0.00	4.84
3-13-81	0.00	4.89
3-16-81	0.00	4.92
3-17-81	0.00	4.95
3-18-81	0.00	4.97
3-19-81	0.00	4.99
3-20-81	0.00	4.99
3-23-81	0.00	5.03
3-24-81	0.00	5.07
3-25-81	0.00	5.09
3-26-81	0.00	5.11
3-27-81	0.00	5.11
3-30-81	0.00	5.10
4-2-81	0.00	5.10
4-3-81	0.00	5.11
4-6-81	0.00	5.12
4-7-81	0.00	5.11
4-8-81	0.00	5.11
4-9-81	0.00	5.11
4-10-81	0.00	5.10
4-13-81	0.00	5.09
4-14-81	0.00	5.06
4-15-81	0.00	5.03
4-16-81	0.00	4.99
4-20-81	0.00	4.94
4-21-81	0.00	4.90
4-22-81	0.00	4.85
4-23-81	0.00	4.80
4-24-81	0.00	4.73
4-27-81	0.00	4.67
4-28-81	0.00	4.60
4-29-81	0.00	4.55
4-30-81	0.00	4.54
5-1-81	0.00	4.51
5-4-81	0.00	4.49
5-5-81	0.00	4.45
5-6-81	0.00	4.42
5-7-81	0.00	4.39
5-8-81	0.00	4.35
5-11-81	0.00	4.31
5-12-81	0.00	4.26
5-13-81	0.00	4.21
5-14-81	0.00	4.15
5-15-81	0.00	4.08
5-18-81	0.00	4.02
5-19-81	0.00	4.01
5-20-81	0.00	4.01
5-21-81	0.00	4.00
5-22-81	0.00	3.98
5-26-81	0.00	3.95
5-27-81	0.00	3.93
5-28-81	0.00	3.91
5-29-81	0.01	3.88
6-1-81	0.01	3.85
6-2-81	0.01	3.82
6-3-81	0.01	3.79
6-4-81	0.01	3.75
6-5-81	0.01	3.71
6-8-81	0.01	3.67
6-9-81	0.02	3.61
6-10-81	0.02	3.57
6-11-81	0.02	3.51
6-12-81	0.03	3.46
6-15-81	0.03	3.47
6-16-81	0.02	3.49
6-17-81	0.02	3.49
6-18-81	0.02	3.50
6-19-81	0.02	3.49
6-22-81	0.03	3.48
6-23-81	0.03	3.47
6-24-81	0.03	3.45
6-25-81	0.03	3.43
6-26-81	0.03	3.40
6-29-81	0.04	3.37
7-2-81	0.03	3.42
7-6-81	0.03	3.46
7-7-81	0.02	3.52
7-8-81	0.02	3.58
7-9-81	0.01	3.63
7-10-81	0.01	3.68
7-13-81	0.01	3.72
7-14-81	0.01	3.76
7-15-81	0.01	3.80
7-16-81	0.01	3.83
7-17-81	0.01	3.86
7-20-81	0.00	3.94
7-21-81	0.00	4.02
7-22-81	0.00	4.09
7-23-81	0.00	4.15
7-24-81	0.00	4.21
7-27-81	0.00	4.26
7-28-81	0.00	4.31
7-29-81	0.00	4.35
7-30-81	0.00	4.38
7-31-81	0.00	4.40
8-3-81	0.00	4.44
8-4-81	0.00	4.48
8-5-81	0.00	4.51
8-6-81	0.00	4.53
8-7-81	0.00	4.55
8-10-81	0.00	4.56
8-11-81	0.00	4.57
8-12-81	0.00	4.59
8-13-81	0.00	4.59
8-14-81	0.00	4.59
8-17-81	0.00	4.59
8-18-81	0.00	4.59
8-19-81	0.00	4.57
8-20-81	0.00	4.56
8-21-81	0.00	4.55
8-24-81	0.00	4.57
8-25-81	0.00	4.66
8-26-81	0.00	4.74
8-27-81	0.00	4.82
8-28-81	0.00	4.89
8-31-81	0.00	4.95
9-1-81	0.00	5.00
9-2-81	0.00	5.05
9-3-81	0.00	5.09
9-4-81	0.00	5.11
9-8-81	0.00	5.15
9-9-81	0.00	5.17
9-10-81	0.00	5.21
9-11-81	0.00	5.25
9-14-81	0.00	5.33
9-15-81	0.00	5.40
9-16-81	0.00	5.46
9-17-81	0.00	5.51
9-18-81	0.00	5.55
9-21-81	0.00	5.58
9-22-81	0.00	5.61
9-23-81	0.00	5.63
9-24-81	0.00	5.63
9-25-81	0.00	5.62
9-28-81	0.00	5.60
9-29-81	0.00	5.58
10-2-81	0.00	5.65
10-5-81	0.00	5.73
10-6-81	0.00	5.81
10-7-81	0.00	5.90
10-8-81	0.00	5.98
10-9-81	0.00	6.06
10-13-81	0.00	6.14
10-14-81	0.00	6.20
10-15-81	0.00	6.27
10-16-81	0.00	6.33
10-19-81	0.00	6.39
10-20-81	0.00	6.42
10-21-81	0.00	6.46
10-22-81	0.00	6.49
10-23-81	0.00	6.50
10-26-81	0.00	6.50
10-27-81	0.00	6.50
10-28-81	0.00	6.47
10-29-81	0.00	6.44
10-30-81	0.00	6.40
11-2-81	0.00	6.35
11-4-81	0.00	6.29
11-5-81	0.00	6.24
11-6-81	0.00	6.18
11-9-81	0.00	6.10
11-10-81	0.00	6.04
11-12-81	0.00	5.98
11-13-81	0.00	5.91
11-16-81	0.00	5.84
11-17-81	0.00	5.75
11-18-81	0.00	5.66
11-19-81	0.00	5.57
11-20-81	0.00	5.48
11-23-81	0.00	5.37
11-24-81	0.00	5.26
11-25-81	0.00	5.15
11-27-81	0.00	5.04
11-30-81	0.00	4.93
12-1-81	0.00	4.82
12-2-81	0.00	4.73
12-3-81	0.00	4.63
12-4-81	0.00	4.54
12-7-81	0.00	4.46
12-8-81	0.00	4.40
12-9-81	0.00	4.33
12-10-81	0.00	4.26
12-11-81	0.00	4.22
12-14-81	0.00	4.21
12-15-81	0.00	4.19
12-16-81	0.00	4.16
12-17-81	0.00	4.12
12-18-81	0.00	4.08
12-21-81	0.00	4.03
12-22-81	0.00	3.98
12-23-81	0.00	3.92
12-24-81	0.01	3.87
12-28-81	0.01	3.81
12-29-81	0.01	3.78
12-30-81	0.01	3.73
1-5-82	0.01	3.69
1-6-82	0.01	3.63
1-7-82	0.02	3.58
1-8-82	0.02	3.52
1-11-82	0.03	3.47
1-12-82	0.03	3.41
1-13-82	0.04	3.38
1-14-82	0.04	3.34
1-15-82	0.05	3.30
1-18-82	0.06	3.25
1-19-82	0.07	3.20
1-20-82	0.08	3.15
1-21-82	0.10	3.10
1-22-82	0.11	3.05
1-25-82	0.14	2.99
1-26-82	0.17	2.94
1-27-82	0.20	2.88
1-28-82	0.22	2.84
1-29-82	0.23	2.83
2-1-82	0.23	2.83
2-2-82	0.23	2.83
2-3-82	0.24	2.82
2-4-82	0.26	2.80
2-5-82	0.28	2.77
2-8-82	0.30	2.75
2-9-82	0.32	2.73
2-10-82	0.35	2.70
2-11-82	0.38	2.67
2-16-82	0.34	2.70
2-17-82	0.31	2.73
2-18-82	0.29	2.75
2-19-82	0.28	2.77
2-22-82	0.26	2.79
2-23-82	0.24	2.82
2-24-82	0.22	2.85
2-25-82	0.20	2.87
2-26-82	0.19	2.89
3-1-82	0.18	2.91
3-2-82	0.16	2.94
3-3-82	0.14	2.98
3-4-82	0.13	3.01
3-5-82	0.12	3.04
3-8-82	0.10	3.09
3-9-82	0.08	3.15
3-10-82	0.07	3.20
3-11-82	0.06	3.25
3-12-82	0.05	3.29
3-15-82	0.04	3.34
3-16-82	0.04	3.38
3-17-82	0.03	3.42
3-18-82	0.03	3.45
3-19-82	0.02	3.51
3-22-82	0.02	3.57
3-23-82	0.01	3.63
3-24-82	0.01	3.69
3-25-82	0.01	3.75
3-26-82	0.01	3.81
3-29-82	0.01	3.86
3-30-82	0.00	3.91
4-2-82	0.00	3.98
4-5-82	0.00	4.05
4-6-82	0.00	4.11
4-7-82	0.00	4.17
4-8-82	0.00	4.23
4-12-82	0.00	4.28
4-13-82	0.00	4.32
4-14-82	0.00	4.35
4-15-82	0.00	4.38
4-16-82	0.00	4.39
4-19-82	0.00	4.39
4-20-82	0.00	4.39
4-21-82	0.00	4.37
4-22-82	0.00	4.35
4-23-82	0.00	4.32
4-26-82	0.00	4.28
4-27-82	0.00	4.23
4-28-82	0.00	4.17
4-29-82	0.00	4.12
4-30-82	0.00	4.07
5-3-82	0.00	4.01
5-4-82	0.00	3.95
5-5-82	0.01	3.88
5-6-82	0.01	3.81
5-7-82	0.01	3.74
5-10-82	0.01	3.66
5-11-82	0.02	3.59
5-12-82	0.02	3.51
5-13-82	0.03	3.43
5-14-82	0.04	3.35
5-17-82	0.05	3.27
5-18-82	0.07	3.20
5-19-82	0.09	3.13
5-20-82	0.10	3.09
5-21-82	0.11	3.05
5-24-82	0.13	3.01
5-25-82	0.15	2.96
5-26-82	0.18	2.92
5-27-82	0.21	2.87
5-28-82	0.24	2.82
6-1-82	0.28	2.77
6-2-82	0.33	2.72
6-3-82	0.39	2.66
6-4-82	0.45	2.61
6-7-82	0.53	2.55
6-8-82	0.63	2.50
6-9-82	0.74	2.44
6-10-82	0.88	2.38
6-11-82	1.03	2.31
6-14-82	1.21	2.25
6-15-82	1.42	2.19
6-16-82	1.65	2.13
6-17-82	1.90	2.07
6-18-82	2.16	2.02
6-21-82	2.30	2.00
6-22-82	2.46	1.97
6-23-82	2.59	1.94
6-24-82	2.74	1.92
6-25-82	2.89	1.90
6-28-82	3.05	1.87
6-29-82	3.24	1.85
7-2-82	3.45	1.82
7-6-82	3.46	1.82
7-7-82	3.49	1.81
7-8-82	3.51	1.81
7-9-82	3.54	1.81
7-12-82	3.60	1.80
7-13-82	3.66	1.79
7-14-82	3.69	1.79
7-15-82	3.76	1.78
7-16-82	3.88	1.76
7-19-82	4.02	1.75
7-20-82	4.20	1.73
7-21-82	4.39	1.71
7-22-82	4.61	1.68
7-23-82	4.78	1.67
7-26-82	4.99	1.65
7-27-82	5.22	1.62
7-28-82	5.04	1.64
7-29-82	4.94	1.65
7-30-82	4.84	1.66
8-2-82	4.77	1.67
8-3-82	4.69	1.68
8-4-82	4.66	1.68
8-5-82	4.64	1.68
8-6-82	4.56	1.69
8-9-82	4.57	1.69
8-10-82	4.60	1.69
8-11-82	4.66	1.68
8-12-82	4.77	1.67
8-13-82	4.91	1.65
8-16-82	5.07	1.64
8-17-82	5.09	1.64
8-18-82	4.99	1.65
8-19-82	4.89	1.66
8-20-82	4.65	1.68
8-23-82	4.33	1.71
8-24-82	4.07	1.74
8-25-82	3.85	1.77
8-26-82	3.65	1.79
8-27-82	3.47	1.82
8-30-82	3.34	1.83
8-31-82	3.22	1.85
9-1-82	3.11	1.87
9-2-82	3.02	1.88
9-3-82	2.94	1.89
9-7-82	2.87	1.90
9-8-82	2.81	1.91
9-9-82	2.76	1.92
9-10-82	2.74	1.92
9-13-82	2.76	1.92
9-14-82	2.73	1.92
9-15-82	2.71	1.93
9-16-82	2.72	1.92
9-17-82	2.74	1.92
9-20-82	2.80	1.91
9-21-82	2.88	1.90
9-22-82	2.99	1.88
9-23-82	3.12	1.86
9-24-82	3.25	1.85
9-27-82	3.39	1.83
9-28-82	3.56	1.80
9-29-82	3.74	1.78
10-4-82	3.87	1.77
10-5-82	3.95	1.76
10-6-82	4.00	1.75
10-7-82	4.07	1.74
10-8-82	4.15	1.73
10-12-82	4.27	1.72
10-13-82	4.32	1.71
10-14-82	4.24	1.72
10-15-82	4.12	1.74
10-18-82	4.04	1.75
10-19-82	3.97	1.75
10-20-82	3.93	1.76
10-21-82	3.92	1.76
10-22-82	3.90	1.76
10-25-82	3.84	1.77
10-26-82	3.78	1.78
10-27-82	3.73	1.78
10-28-82	3.72	1.78
10-29-82	3.70	1.79
11-1-82	3.71	1.78
11-3-82	3.51	1.81
11-4-82	3.29	1.84
11-5-82	3.10	1.87
11-8-82	2.94	1.89
11-9-82	2.82	1.91
11-10-82	2.68	1.93
11-12-82	2.57	1.95
11-15-82	2.45	1.97
11-16-82	2.30	2.00
11-17-82	2.15	2.02
11-18-82	2.00	2.05
11-19-82	1.88	2.08
11-22-82	1.75	2.11
11-23-82	1.64	2.13
11-24-82	1.55	2.16
11-26-82	1.49	2.17
11-29-82	1.42	2.19
11-30-82	1.37	2.20
12-1-82	1.35	2.21
12-2-82	1.33	2.22
12-3-82	1.34	2.22
12-6-82	1.35	2.21
12-7-82	1.36	2.21
12-8-82	1.38	2.20
12-9-82	1.35	2.21
12-10-82	1.33	2.22
12-13-82	1.32	2.22
12-14-82	1.34	2.21
12-15-82	1.37	2.21
12-16-82	1.40	2.20
12-17-82	1.42	2.19
12-20-82	1.47	2.18
12-21-82	1.53	2.16
12-22-82	1.51	2.17
12-23-82	1.50	2.17
12-27-82	1.49	2.17
12-28-82	1.51	2.17
12-29-82	1.54	2.16
12-30-82	1.58	2.15
1-4-83	1.64	2.14
1-5-83	1.58	2.15
1-6-83	1.46	2.18
1-7-83	1.34	2.21
1-10-83	1.23	2.25
1-11-83	1.13	2.28
1-12-83	1.04	2.31
1-13-83	0.98	2.33
1-14-83	0.92	2.36
1-17-83	0.86	2.38
1-18-83	0.83	2.40
1-19-83	0.80	2.41
1-20-83	0.71	2.45
1-21-83	0.62	2.50
1-24-83	0.54	2.55
1-25-83	0.48	2.59
1-26-83	0.42	2.64
1-27-83	0.37	2.68
1-28-83	0.33	2.72
1-31-83	0.29	2.76
2-1-83	0.26	2.80
2-2-83	0.23	2.83
2-3-83	0.21	2.86
2-4-83	0.19	2.89
2-7-83	0.18	2.91
2-8-83	0.17	2.92
2-9-83	0.17	2.93
2-10-83	0.17	2.94
2-11-83	0.17	2.94
2-14-83	0.17	2.93
2-15-83	0.18	2.92
2-16-83	0.18	2.91
2-17-83	0.19	2.89
2-18-83	0.19	2.90
2-22-83	0.17	2.93
2-23-83	0.16	2.95
2-24-83	0.15	2.96
2-25-83	0.15	2.98
2-28-83	0.14	2.99
3-1-83	0.14	2.99
3-2-83	0.14	2.98
3-3-83	0.13	3.02
3-4-83	0.11	3.07
3-7-83	0.09	3.12
3-8-83	0.07	3.19
3-9-83	0.06	3.25
3-10-83	0.05	3.31
3-11-83	0.04	3.37
3-14-83	0.03	3.42
3-15-83	0.03	3.47
3-16-83	0.02	3.51
3-17-83	0.02	3.56
3-18-83	0.02	3.60
3-21-83	0.01	3.63
3-22-83	0.01	3.67
3-23-83	0.01	3.70
3-24-83	0.01	3.73
3-25-83	0.01	3.77
3-28-83	0.01	3.82
3-29-83	0.01	3.85
3-30-83	0.01	3.88
4-5-83	0.00	3.90
4-6-83	0.00	3.92
4-7-83	0.00	3.93
4-8-83	0.00	3.96
4-11-83	0.00	3.97
4-12-83	0.00	3.98
4-13-83	0.00	3.99
4-14-83	0.00	3.98
4-15-83	0.00	3.97
4-18-83	0.00	3.95
4-19-83	0.00	3.92
4-20-83	0.01	3.89
4-21-83	0.01	3.86
4-22-83	0.01	3.81
4-25-83	0.01	3.80
4-26-83	0.01	3.78
4-27-83	0.01	3.75
4-28-83	0.01	3.73
4-29-83	0.01	3.77
5-2-83	0.01	3.79
5-3-83	0.01	3.82
5-4-83	0.01	3.83
5-5-83	0.01	3.84
5-6-83	0.01	3.84
5-9-83	0.01	3.84
5-10-83	0.01	3.83
5-11-83	0.01	3.81
5-12-83	0.01	3.81
5-13-83	0.01	3.81
5-16-83	0.01	3.86
5-17-83	0.00	3.89
5-18-83	0.00	3.92
5-19-83	0.00	3.95
5-20-83	0.00	3.96
5-23-83	0.00	4.00
5-24-83	0.00	4.06
5-25-83	0.00	4.12
5-26-83	0.00	4.17
5-27-83	0.00	4.21
5-31-83	0.00	4.26
6-1-83	0.00	4.29
6-2-83	0.00	4.33
6-3-83	0.00	4.36
6-6-83	0.00	4.37
6-7-83	0.00	4.39
6-8-83	0.00	4.43
6-9-83	0.00	4.46
6-10-83	0.00	4.48
6-13-83	0.00	4.49
6-14-83	0.00	4.50
6-15-83	0.00	4.50
6-16-83	0.00	4.50
6-17-83	0.00	4.48
6-20-83	0.00	4.48
6-21-83	0.00	4.49
6-22-83	0.00	4.48
6-23-83	0.00	4.47
6-24-83	0.00	4.49
6-27-83	0.00	4.51
6-28-83	0.00	4.52
6-29-83	0.00	4.52
7-5-83	0.00	4.54
7-6-83	0.00	4.54
7-7-83	0.00	4.54
7-8-83	0.00	4.54
7-11-83	0.00	4.52
7-12-83	0.00	4.49
7-13-83	0.00	4.46
7-14-83	0.00	4.42
7-15-83	0.00	4.37
7-18-83	0.00	4.31
7-19-83	0.00	4.25
7-20-83	0.00	4.31
7-21-83	0.00	4.39
7-22-83	0.00	4.46
7-25-83	0.00	4.53
7-26-83	0.00	4.61
7-27-83	0.00	4.67
7-28-83	0.00	4.73
7-29-83	0.00	4.78
8-1-83	0.00	4.83
8-2-83	0.00	4.87
8-3-83	0.00	4.89
8-4-83	0.00	4.92
8-5-83	0.00	4.94
8-8-83	0.00	4.94
8-9-83	0.00	4.94
8-10-83	0.00	4.93
8-11-83	0.00	4.92
8-12-83	0.00	4.92
8-15-83	0.00	4.92
8-16-83	0.00	4.91
8-17-83	0.00	4.90
8-18-83	0.00	4.88
8-19-83	0.00	4.86
8-22-83	0.00	4.83
8-23-83	0.00	4.85
8-24-83	0.00	4.86
8-25-83	0.00	4.88
8-26-83	0.00	4.90
8-29-83	0.00	4.92
8-30-83	0.00	4.94
8-31-83	0.00	4.94
9-1-83	0.00	4.93
9-2-83	0.00	4.92
9-6-83	0.00	4.92
9-7-83	0.00	4.91
9-8-83	0.00	4.90
9-9-83	0.00	4.88
9-12-83	0.00	4.85
9-13-83	0.00	4.81
9-14-83	0.00	4.76
9-15-83	0.00	4.71
9-16-83	0.00	4.66
9-19-83	0.00	4.59
9-20-83	0.00	4.53
9-21-83	0.00	4.46
9-22-83	0.00	4.39
9-23-83	0.00	4.31
9-26-83	0.00	4.29
9-27-83	0.00	4.27
9-28-83	0.00	4.29
9-29-83	0.00	4.29
10-4-83	0.00	4.29
10-5-83	0.00	4.30
10-6-83	0.00	4.29
10-7-83	0.00	4.27
10-11-83	0.00	4.26
10-12-83	0.00	4.25
10-13-83	0.00	4.23
10-14-83	0.00	4.20
10-17-83	0.00	4.18
10-18-83	0.00	4.16
10-19-83	0.00	4.17
10-20-83	0.00	4.19
10-21-83	0.00	4.19
10-24-83	0.00	4.20
10-25-83	0.00	4.20
10-26-83	0.00	4.19
10-27-83	0.00	4.17
10-28-83	0.00	4.15
10-31-83	0.00	4.11
11-1-83	0.00	4.07
11-2-83	0.00	4.02
11-3-83	0.00	3.96
11-4-83	0.00	3.90
11-7-83	0.01	3.84
11-9-83	0.01	3.77
11-10-83	0.01	3.73
11-14-83	0.01	3.72
11-15-83	0.01	3.72
11-16-83	0.01	3.70
11-17-83	0.01	3.68
11-18-83	0.01	3.66
11-21-83	0.01	3.63
11-22-83	0.01	3.65
11-23-83	0.01	3.67
11-25-83	0.01	3.68
11-28-83	0.01	3.73
11-29-83	0.01	3.77
11-30-83	0.01	3.81
12-1-83	0.01	3.85
12-2-83	0.01	3.89
12-5-83	0.00	3.92
12-6-83	0.00	3.94
12-7-83	0.00	3.96
12-8-83	0.00	4.00
12-9-83	0.00	4.03
12-12-83	0.00	4.05
12-13-83	0.00	4.07
12-14-83	0.00	4.10
12-15-83	0.00	4.12
12-16-83	0.00	4.13
12-19-83	0.00	4.14
12-20-83	0.00	4.14
12-21-83	0.00	4.13
12-22-83	0.00	4.12
12-23-83	0.00	4.12
12-27-83	0.00	4.12
12-28-83	0.00	4.13
12-29-83	0.00	4.18
1-4-84	0.00	4.23
1-5-84	0.00	4.28
1-6-84	0.00	4.32
1-9-84	0.00	4.37
1-10-84	0.00	4.43
1-11-84	0.00	4.47
1-12-84	0.00	4.51
1-13-84	0.00	4.54
1-16-84	0.00	4.57
1-17-84	0.00	4.59
1-18-84	0.00	4.59
1-19-84	0.00	4.59
1-20-84	0.00	4.60
1-23-84	0.00	4.59
1-24-84	0.00	4.58
1-25-84	0.00	4.57
1-26-84	0.00	4.54
1-27-84	0.00	4.50
1-30-84	0.00	4.46
1-31-84	0.00	4.41
2-1-84	0.00	4.36
2-2-84	0.00	4.29
2-3-84	0.00	4.24
2-6-84	0.00	4.18
2-7-84	0.00	4.12
2-8-84	0.00	4.10
2-9-84	0.00	4.06
2-10-84	0.00	4.02
2-14-84	0.00	3.98
2-15-84	0.00	3.93
2-16-84	0.01	3.88
2-17-84	0.01	3.83
2-21-84	0.01	3.76
2-22-84	0.01	3.72
2-23-84	0.01	3.67
2-24-84	0.02	3.61
2-27-84	0.02	3.56
2-28-84	0.02	3.50
2-29-84	0.03	3.44
3-1-84	0.04	3.38
3-2-84	0.04	3.32
3-5-84	0.06	3.26
3-6-84	0.07	3.19
3-7-84	0.09	3.12
3-8-84	0.11	3.05
3-9-84	0.14	2.98
3-12-84	0.18	2.91
3-13-84	0.23	2.83
3-14-84	0.29	2.76
3-15-84	0.36	2.69
3-16-84	0.44	2.62
3-19-84	0.54	2.55
3-20-84	0.66	2.48
3-21-84	0.79	2.41
3-22-84	0.94	2.35
3-23-84	1.11	2.29
3-26-84	1.28	2.23
3-27-84	1.48	2.17
3-28-84	1.72	2.12
3-29-84	1.98	2.06
4-3-84	2.27	2.00
4-4-84	2.59	1.94
4-5-84	2.95	1.89
4-6-84	3.34	1.83
4-9-84	3.76	1.78
4-10-84	4.22	1.73
4-11-84	4.71	1.67
4-12-84	5.23	1.62
4-13-84	5.76	1.57
4-16-84	6.34	1.53
4-17-84	6.94	1.48
4-18-84	7.40	1.45
4-19-84	7.91	1.41
4-23-84	8.46	1.37
4-24-84	9.04	1.34
4-25-84	9.63	1.30
4-26-84	10.26	1.27
4-27-84	10.85	1.23
4-30-84	11.50	1.20
5-1-84	12.17	1.17
5-2-84	12.80	1.14
5-3-84	13.48	1.10
5-4-84	14.16	1.07
5-7-84	14.85	1.04
5-8-84	15.52	1.01
5-9-84	16.21	0.99
5-10-84	16.78	0.96
5-11-84	17.33	0.94
5-14-84	17.85	0.92
5-15-84	18.32	0.90
5-16-84	18.72	0.89
5-17-84	19.04	0.88
5-18-84	19.48	0.86
5-21-84	19.91	0.84
5-22-84	20.22	0.83
5-23-84	20.56	0.82
5-24-84	20.92	0.81
5-25-84	21.22	0.80
5-29-84	21.62	0.79
5-30-84	21.68	0.78
5-31-84	21.34	0.79
6-1-84	21.37	0.79
6-4-84	21.36	0.79
6-5-84	21.43	0.79
6-6-84	21.50	0.79
6-7-84	21.55	0.79
6-8-84	21.62	0.79
6-11-84	21.63	0.78
6-12-84	21.61	0.79
6-13-84	21.60	0.79
6-14-84	21.77	0.78
6-15-84	21.92	0.77
6-18-84	22.08	0.77
6-19-84	22.34	0.76
6-20-84	22.58	0.75
6-21-84	22.84	0.74
6-22-84	23.16	0.73
6-25-84	23.55	0.72
6-26-84	23.98	0.71
6-27-84	24.40	0.69
6-28-84	24.88	0.68
7-3-84	25.00	0.67
7-5-84	25.34	0.66
7-6-84	25.58	0.66
7-9-84	25.99	0.64
7-10-84	26.44	0.63
7-11-84	26.82	0.62
7-12-84	27.36	0.60
7-13-84	27.85	0.59
7-16-84	28.31	0.57
7-17-84	28.85	0.56
7-18-84	29.08	0.55
7-19-84	29.03	0.55
7-20-84	29.37	0.54
7-23-84	29.74	0.53
7-24-84	30.21	0.52
7-25-84	29.66	0.53
7-26-84	29.83	0.53
7-27-84	29.75	0.53
7-30-84	29.47	0.54
7-31-84	29.26	0.55
8-1-84	29.09	0.55
8-2-84	28.95	0.55
8-3-84	28.82	0.56
8-6-84	28.76	0.56
8-7-84	28.71	0.56
8-8-84	28.81	0.56
8-9-84	28.89	0.56
8-10-84	28.95	0.55
8-13-84	29.07	0.55
8-14-84	29.24	0.55
8-15-84	29.41	0.54
8-16-84	29.67	0.53
8-17-84	29.98	0.52
8-20-84	30.21	0.52
8-21-84	30.52	0.51
8-22-84	30.86	0.50
8-23-84	31.21	0.49
8-24-84	31.64	0.48
8-27-84	32.01	0.47
8-28-84	32.37	0.46
8-29-84	32.77	0.45
8-30-84	33.16	0.44
8-31-84	33.59	0.42
9-4-84	33.96	0.41
9-5-84	34.40	0.40
9-6-84	34.80	0.39
9-7-84	35.22	0.38
9-10-84	35.64	0.37
9-11-84	36.05	0.36
9-12-84	36.47	0.35
9-13-84	36.90	0.33
9-14-84	37.32	0.32
9-17-84	37.69	0.31
9-18-84	38.06	0.30
9-19-84	38.41	0.29
9-20-84	38.77	0.29
9-21-84	39.11	0.28
9-24-84	39.46	0.27
9-25-84	39.80	0.26
9-26-84	40.15	0.25
9-27-84	40.07	0.25
10-2-84	39.75	0.26
10-3-84	39.41	0.27
10-4-84	39.07	0.28
10-5-84	38.72	0.29
10-9-84	38.36	0.30
10-10-84	37.99	0.31
10-11-84	37.62	0.32
10-12-84	37.23	0.33
10-15-84	36.84	0.34
10-16-84	36.44	0.35
10-17-84	36.04	0.36
10-18-84	35.63	0.37
10-19-84	35.23	0.38
10-22-84	34.81	0.39
10-23-84	34.36	0.40
10-24-84	33.92	0.41
10-25-84	33.47	0.43
10-26-84	33.03	0.44
10-29-84	32.60	0.45
10-30-84	32.18	0.46
10-31-84	31.75	0.47
11-1-84	31.34	0.49
11-2-84	30.93	0.50
11-5-84	30.55	0.51
11-7-84	30.16	0.52
11-8-84	29.79	0.53
11-9-84	29.46	0.54
11-13-84	29.14	0.55
11-14-84	28.84	0.56
11-15-84	28.59	0.57
11-16-84	28.36	0.57
11-19-84	28.17	0.58
11-20-84	28.03	0.58
11-21-84	27.95	0.58
11-23-84	27.89	0.59
11-26-84	27.86	0.59
11-27-84	27.89	0.59
11-28-84	27.94	0.58
11-29-84	28.05	0.58
11-30-84	28.17	0.58
12-3-84	28.33	0.57
12-4-84	28.54	0.57
12-5-84	28.77	0.56
12-6-84	29.03	0.55
12-7-84	29.35	0.54
12-10-84	28.53	0.57
12-11-84	28.10	0.58
12-12-84	27.68	0.59
12-13-84	27.25	0.61
12-14-84	26.90	0.62
12-17-84	26.52	0.63
12-18-84	26.21	0.64
12-19-84	25.92	0.65
12-20-84	25.66	0.65
12-21-84	25.42	0.66
12-24-84	25.26	0.67
12-26-84	25.11	0.67
12-27-84	24.99	0.67
12-28-84	24.96	0.68
1-3-85	24.57	0.69
1-4-85	24.04	0.71
1-7-85	23.50	0.72
1-8-85	22.98	0.74
1-9-85	22.41	0.76
1-10-85	21.78	0.78
1-11-85	21.09	0.80
1-14-85	20.44	0.83
1-15-85	19.79	0.85
1-16-85	19.15	0.87
1-17-85	18.53	0.90
1-18-85	17.90	0.92
1-22-85	17.24	0.94
1-23-85	16.55	0.97
1-24-85	15.85	1.00
1-25-85	15.16	1.03
1-28-85	14.47	1.06
1-29-85	13.81	1.09
1-30-85	13.18	1.12
1-31-85	12.52	1.15
2-1-85	11.85	1.18
2-4-85	11.22	1.21
2-5-85	10.61	1.25
2-6-85	10.01	1.28
2-7-85	9.44	1.31
2-8-85	8.91	1.35
2-11-85	8.39	1.38
2-13-85	7.88	1.41
2-14-85	7.39	1.45
2-15-85	6.94	1.48
2-19-85	6.50	1.51
2-20-85	6.10	1.55
2-21-85	5.65	1.58
2-22-85	5.21	1.62
2-25-85	4.71	1.67
2-26-85	4.24	1.72
2-27-85	3.79	1.78
2-28-85	3.36	1.83
3-1-85	2.97	1.88
3-4-85	2.61	1.94
3-5-85	2.29	2.00
3-6-85	2.00	2.05
3-7-85	1.72	2.11
3-8-85	1.49	2.17
3-11-85	1.29	2.23
3-12-85	1.11	2.29
3-13-85	0.95	2.35
3-14-85	0.81	2.40
3-15-85	0.69	2.46
3-18-85	0.59	2.52
3-19-85	0.51	2.57
3-20-85	0.44	2.62
3-21-85	0.38	2.67
3-22-85	0.33	2.72
3-25-85	0.29	2.76
3-26-85	0.26	2.79
3-27-85	0.23	2.83
3-28-85	0.21	2.87
4-2-85	0.18	2.91
4-3-85	0.16	2.96
4-4-85	0.14	2.99
4-8-85	0.12	3.03
4-9-85	0.11	3.06
4-10-85	0.10	3.09
4-11-85	0.09	3.11
4-12-85	0.09	3.13
4-15-85	0.09	3.14
4-16-85	0.08	3.14
4-17-85	0.08	3.14
4-18-85	0.09	3.14
4-19-85	0.09	3.13
4-22-85	0.09	3.11
4-23-85	0.10	3.10
4-24-85	0.11	3.07
4-25-85	0.12	3.04
4-26-85	0.13	3.01
4-29-85	0.15	2.96
4-30-85	0.17	2.92
5-1-85	0.20	2.88
5-2-85	0.23	2.83
5-3-85	0.27	2.78
5-6-85	0.32	2.73
5-7-85	0.38	2.67
5-8-85	0.45	2.61
5-9-85	0.53	2.56
5-10-85	0.53	2.56
5-13-85	0.47	2.59
5-14-85	0.43	2.63
5-15-85	0.39	2.66
5-16-85	0.33	2.71
5-17-85	0.28	2.77
5-20-85	0.23	2.83
5-21-85	0.19	2.89
5-22-85	0.16	2.95
5-23-85	0.13	3.01
5-24-85	0.11	3.07
5-28-85	0.09	3.13
5-29-85	0.07	3.18
5-30-85	0.06	3.23
5-31-85	0.05	3.28
6-3-85	0.04	3.33
6-4-85	0.04	3.37
6-5-85	0.03	3.42
6-6-85	0.03	3.47
6-7-85	0.02	3.51
6-10-85	0.02	3.54
6-11-85	0.02	3.57
6-12-85	0.01	3.62
6-13-85	0.01	3.67
6-14-85	0.01	3.71
6-17-85	0.01	3.74
6-18-85	0.01	3.78
6-19-85	0.01	3.81
6-20-85	0.01	3.84
6-21-85	0.01	3.85
6-24-85	0.01	3.87
6-25-85	0.01	3.88
6-26-85	0.01	3.88
6-27-85	0.00	3.89
7-2-85	0.00	3.90
7-3-85	0.00	3.91
7-5-85	0.00	3.91
7-8-85	0.00	3.90
7-9-85	0.00	3.90
7-10-85	0.01	3.88
7-11-85	0.00	3.89
7-12-85	0.00	3.91
7-15-85	0.00	3.93
7-16-85	0.00	3.95
7-17-85	0.00	3.96
7-18-85	0.00	3.99
7-19-85	0.00	4.01
7-22-85	0.00	4.02
7-23-85	0.00	4.04
7-24-85	0.00	4.05
7-25-85	0.00	4.07
7-26-85	0.00	4.09
7-29-85	0.00	4.12
7-30-85	0.00	4.14
7-31-85	0.00	4.17
8-1-85	0.00	4.20
8-2-85	0.00	4.24
8-5-85	0.00	4.26
8-6-85	0.00	4.29
8-7-85	0.00	4.31
8-8-85	0.00	4.34
8-9-85	0.00	4.37
8-12-85	0.00	4.38
8-13-85	0.00	4.39
8-14-85	0.00	4.39
8-15-85	0.00	4.40
8-16-85	0.00	4.39
8-19-85	0.00	4.37
8-20-85	0.00	4.36
8-21-85	0.00	4.34
8-22-85	0.00	4.31
8-23-85	0.00	4.28
8-26-85	0.00	4.25
8-27-85	0.00	4.22
8-28-85	0.00	4.19
8-29-85	0.00	4.16
8-30-85	0.00	4.13
9-3-85	0.00	4.09
9-4-85	0.00	4.08
9-5-85	0.00	4.09
9-6-85	0.00	4.10
9-9-85	0.00	4.11
9-10-85	0.00	4.12
9-11-85	0.00	4.12
9-12-85	0.00	4.11
9-13-85	0.00	4.10
9-16-85	0.00	4.07
9-17-85	0.00	4.05
9-18-85	0.00	4.02
9-19-85	0.00	3.99
9-20-85	0.00	3.97
9-23-85	0.00	3.93
9-24-85	0.01	3.89
9-25-85	0.01	3.83
9-26-85	0.01	3.78
10-2-85	0.01	3.72
10-3-85	0.01	3.66
10-4-85	0.02	3.59
10-7-85	0.02	3.52
10-8-85	0.03	3.45
10-9-85	0.04	3.38
10-10-85	0.05	3.31
10-11-85	0.06	3.25
10-15-85	0.06	3.24
10-16-85	0.06	3.23
10-17-85	0.06	3.22
10-18-85	0.06	3.24
10-21-85	0.06	3.24
10-22-85	0.06	3.25
10-23-85	0.06	3.25
10-24-85	0.06	3.25
10-25-85	0.06	3.24
10-28-85	0.06	3.23
10-29-85	0.06	3.22
10-30-85	0.07	3.20
10-31-85	0.07	3.19
11-1-85	0.08	3.16
11-4-85	0.08	3.14
11-5-85	0.09	3.11
11-6-85	0.11	3.07
11-7-85	0.12	3.03
11-8-85	0.14	2.99
11-12-85	0.15	2.98
11-13-85	0.16	2.96
11-14-85	0.17	2.93
11-15-85	0.18	2.91
11-18-85	0.19	2.89
11-19-85	0.21	2.86
11-20-85	0.23	2.83
11-21-85	0.26	2.80
11-22-85	0.29	2.76
11-25-85	0.33	2.72
11-26-85	0.35	2.70
11-27-85	0.37	2.67
11-29-85	0.40	2.65
12-2-85	0.44	2.62
12-3-85	0.48	2.59
12-4-85	0.50	2.57
12-5-85	0.54	2.55
12-6-85	0.57	2.53
12-9-85	0.62	2.50
12-10-85	0.68	2.47
12-11-85	0.73	2.44
12-12-85	0.80	2.41
12-13-85	0.85	2.39
12-16-85	0.89	2.37
12-17-85	0.90	2.37
12-18-85	0.80	2.41
12-19-85	0.70	2.46
12-20-85	0.60	2.51
12-23-85	0.51	2.57
12-24-85	0.44	2.62
12-26-85	0.38	2.67
12-27-85	0.33	2.72
12-30-85	0.28	2.77

Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: Impulse-Response Functions from Financial to Real Variables: Financial Index Ordered First

Periods Following Shock	Response of Profits to Financial Index	Standard Error of Response of Profits to Financial Index	Response of Profits to Spread	Standard Error of Response of Profits to Spread	Response of Investment to Financial Index	Standard Error of Response of Investment to Financial Index	Response of Investment to Spread	Standard Error Response of Investment to Spread
0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	-0.015747	0.0082	-0.018458	0.00138	-0.002678	0.00154	-0.006562	0.00897
2	-0.013798	0.00646	0.000402	0.00128	-0.004843	0.00138	-0.005943	0.00642
3	-0.002494	0.00575	0.005941	0.00137	-0.004477	0.00147	-0.004964	0.00579
4	0.002435	0.00457	0.004811	0.00139	-0.002974	0.00148	-0.003392	0.00501
5	0.002067	0.00338	0.002218	0.00136	-0.00152	0.00145	-0.002569	0.00403
6	0.000576	0.00238	0.001184	0.00128	-0.000599	0.00141	-0.002043	0.00321
7	-0.000217	0.00172	0.000936	0.00117	-7.35e-05	0.00134	-0.001662	0.00261
8	-0.000424	0.00132	0.000858	0.00104	0.000241	0.00125	-0.001317	0.00219
9	-0.000449	0.00104	0.000712	0.0009	0.000442	0.00114	-0.001024	0.00189
10	-0.000466	0.00082	0.000545	0.00076	0.000563	0.00103	-0.000786	0.00164
11	-0.000484	0.00064	0.000403	0.00064	0.000621	0.00092	-0.000599	0.00142
12	-0.000484	0.0005	0.000298	0.00053	0.000632	0.00082	-0.000453	0.00124
13	-0.000462	0.0004	0.000221	0.00044	0.000611	0.00073	-0.000338	0.00107
14	-0.000426	0.00032	0.000162	0.00036	0.000572	0.00064	-0.000249	0.00093
15	-0.000383	0.00026	0.000116	0.00029	0.000521	0.00056	-0.00018	0.0008
16	-0.000339	0.00022	8.09E-05	0.00024	0.000467	0.0005	-0.000127	0.00068
17	-0.000297	0.00018	5.45E-05	0.0002	0.000411	0.00043	-8.77E-05	0.00058
18	-0.000256	0.00015	3.50E-05	0.00017	0.000357	0.00038	-5.81E-05	0.00049
19	-0.000219	0.00013	2.08E-05	0.00015	0.000307	0.00033	-3.63E-05	0.00042

Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Impulse-Response Functions from Financial to Real Variables: Credit Spread Ordered First

Periods Following Shock	Response of Profits to Financial Index	Standard Error of Response of Profits to Financial Index	Response of Profits to Spread	Standard Error of Response of Profits to Spread	Response of Investment to Financial Index	Standard Error of Response of Investment to Financial Index	Response of Investment to Spread	Standard Error Response of Investment to Spread
0	0.00000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	-0.01575	0.00897	-0.018458	0.0082	-0.002678	0.00154	-0.006562	0.00138
2	-0.01380	0.00642	0.000402	0.00646	-0.004843	0.00138	-0.005943	0.00128
3	-0.00249	0.00579	0.005941	0.00575	-0.004477	0.00147	-0.004964	0.00137
4	0.00244	0.00501	0.004811	0.00457	-0.002974	0.00148	-0.003392	0.00139
5	0.00207	0.00403	0.002218	0.00338	-0.00152	0.00145	-0.002569	0.00136
6	0.00058	0.00321	0.001184	0.00238	-0.000599	0.00141	-0.002043	0.00128
7	-0.00022	0.00261	0.000936	0.00172	-7.35E-05	0.00134	-0.001662	0.00117
8	-0.00042	0.00219	0.000858	0.00132	0.000241	0.00125	-0.001317	0.00104
9	-0.00045	0.00189	0.000712	0.00104	0.000442	0.00114	-0.001024	0.0009
10	-0.00047	0.00164	0.000545	0.00082	0.000563	0.00103	-0.000786	0.00076
11	-0.00048	0.00142	0.000403	0.00064	0.000621	0.00092	-0.000599	0.00064
12	-0.00048	0.00124	0.000298	0.0005	0.000632	0.00082	-0.000453	0.00053
13	-0.00046	0.00107	0.000221	0.0004	0.000611	0.00073	-0.000338	0.00044
14	-0.00043	0.00093	0.000162	0.00032	0.000572	0.00064	-0.000249	0.00036
15	-0.00038	0.0008	0.000116	0.00026	0.000521	0.00056	-0.00018	0.00029
16	-0.00034	0.00068	8.09E-05	0.00022	0.000467	0.0005	-0.000127	0.00024
17	-0.00030	0.00058	5.45E-05	0.00018	0.000411	0.00043	-8.77E-05	0.0002
18	-0.00026	0.00049	3.50E-05	0.00015	0.000357	0.00038	-5.81E-05	0.00017
19	-0.00022	0.00042	2.08E-05	0.00013	0.000307	0.00033	-3.63E-05	0.00015

Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: Effects of Financial-Health Shock on Investment Growth

Date	Effects of financial health shock	NBER Recession
Aug-74	0	No
Nov-73	0.146981814985118	Yes
Feb-74	-0.177275983027197	Yes
May-74	-0.44510950702523	Yes
Aug-74	-0.921871622056612	Yes
Nov-74	-1.58051373708348	Yes
Feb-75	-1.71437578421898	Yes
May-75	-1.14226295601292	No
Aug-75	-0.14003402920989	No
Nov-75	0.235524009114676	No
Feb-76	0.0454033994462366	No
May-76	0.062679371911661	No
Aug-76	0.674013845790584	No
Nov-76	1.51423690910322	No
Feb-77	1.52103117933921	No
May-77	1.44384742796021	No
Aug-77	1.91427623980197	No
Nov-77	1.63934501224051	No
Feb-78	0.885061709878083	No
May-78	0.415531129798986	No
Aug-78	0.0618457200415035	No
Nov-78	-0.0435627746103028	No
Feb-79	-0.332593486191422	No
May-79	-0.0946221054522824	No
Aug-79	0.604830952251101	No
Nov-79	0.438577615827616	No
Feb-80	-0.337781675483321	Yes
May-80	-0.958240642918762	Yes
Aug-80	-0.954643282325869	No
Nov-80	-0.345011891542711	No
Feb-81	-0.190851182350433	No
May-81	-0.172493391385861	No
Aug-81	0.03554327680757	Yes
Nov-81	-0.127978638416773	Yes
Feb-82	-0.299339094913667	Yes
May-82	-0.581508319459589	Yes
Aug-82	-0.743243912754671	Yes
Nov-82	-1.03076220202192	Yes
Feb-83	-1.14370651515833	No
May-83	-0.641844469077326	No
Aug-83	-0.0701436698370458	No
Nov-83	0.32070565252238	No
Feb-84	0.468551303475617	No
May-84	0.356189493528843	No
Aug-84	0.00265529310367815	No
Nov-84	-0.348808192024581	No
Feb-85	-0.102225732314117	No
May-85	0.440768946922547	No
Aug-85	0.878098538535708	No
Nov-85	1.08325599995654	No
Feb-86	0.643373661398821	No
May-86	0.0573195559856608	No
Aug-86	-0.0231487502167612	No
Nov-86	0.042412386809457	No
Feb-87	0.0776245463525685	No
May-87	-0.0615295757348387	No
Aug-87	-0.274378441107158	No
Nov-87	-0.707812731260287	No
Feb-88	-1.32713576788503	No
May-88	-1.26088735005012	No
Aug-88	-0.385615871601474	No
Nov-88	0.519491838133213	No
Feb-89	1.05651779050946	No
May-89	1.03507343838347	No
Aug-89	0.740683601558119	No
Nov-89	0.323267991181549	No
Feb-90	-0.243262263333456	No
May-90	-0.447490193132154	No
Aug-90	-0.460121210955849	Yes
Nov-90	-0.887711817833731	Yes
Feb-91	-1.32369599022618	Yes
May-91	-1.18908825341411	No
Aug-91	-0.636655846428085	No
Nov-91	-0.149892271265349	No
Feb-92	-0.0206367350582051	No
May-92	0.0818627664763517	No
Aug-92	0.300941651954645	No
Nov-92	0.59364383038339	No
Feb-93	0.480121411972367	No
May-93	0.199904760757482	No
Aug-93	0.0434224948286498	No
Nov-93	0.363748515451595	No
Feb-94	0.499512443293957	No
May-94	0.501576033070326	No
Aug-94	0.486407028322845	No
Nov-94	0.658745629182436	No
Feb-95	0.466843723892112	No
May-95	0.427647827163701	No
Aug-95	0.330406101672228	No
Nov-95	0.14113045580325	No
Feb-96	-0.305625541051636	No
May-96	-0.515508490836141	No
Aug-96	-0.320327318354853	No
Nov-96	-0.104637545959731	No
Feb-97	0.0947597719647159	No
May-97	-0.000440294258546858	No
Aug-97	-0.259843289188383	No
Nov-97	-0.355224111148711	No
Feb-98	-0.556766494374397	No
May-98	-0.446306679802962	No
Aug-98	-0.354527965169875	No
Nov-98	-1.00946211972996	No
Feb-99	-1.50316401288681	No
May-99	-1.17110517153536	No
Aug-99	-0.556981382135019	No
Nov-99	-0.266555429756971	No
Feb-00	-0.549863018064987	No
May-00	-0.852745350760331	No
Aug-00	-0.818787067737972	No
Nov-00	-0.543224941495942	No
Feb-01	-0.458131295275415	No
May-01	-0.471647130949287	Yes
Aug-01	-0.0468399381292766	Yes
Nov-01	0.30093162112083	Yes
Feb-02	0.577476724451451	No
May-02	0.730274373410814	No
Aug-02	0.722934877089262	No
Nov-02	0.0108232750686544	No
Feb-03	-0.397823250764734	No
May-03	0.0524810706782688	No
Aug-03	0.556770392397869	No
Nov-03	1.04523789744637	No
Feb-04	1.44285856407536	No
May-04	1.40349734974776	No
Aug-04	1.1627851786244	No
Nov-04	1.18996856936358	No
Feb-05	1.4011408408711	No
May-05	1.36953919532844	No
Aug-05	1.23358648755238	No
Nov-05	1.37139683587499	No
Feb-06	1.35299544145207	No
May-06	0.956465748992032	No
Aug-06	0.444017267128155	No
Nov-06	0.599816744996712	No
Feb-07	0.926415542639429	No
May-07	0.423508760196484	No
Aug-07	0.01509636908236	No

Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: Actual and Counterfactual Responses to Profits Shock

Periods Following Shock	Actual Investment Response	Counterfactual Investment Response
0	-0.00295	-0.002949
1	-0.00473	-0.003174085655
2	-0.00436	-0.00275882235715656
3	-0.00204	-0.000665363161502612
4	-0.00120	-0.000280647238112911
5	-0.00082	-0.000200625451140578
6	-0.00066	-0.000245810337829376
7	-0.00049	-0.000202261425650957
8	-0.00034	-0.00013767277007487
9	-0.00021	-7.8269704550852e-05
10	-0.00012	-3.95425617851926e-05
11	-0.00005	-1.55473483096072e-05
12	-0.00001	-4.15081308136369e-07
13	0.00002	9.78806536084134e-06
14	0.00003	1.65680077750956e-05
15	0.00004	2.06986279746981e-05
16	0.00005	2.27745636477839e-05
17	0.00005	2.33675213643035e-05
18	0.00005	2.29563411278298e-05
19	0.00005	2.19018482639669e-05
20	0.00005	2.04588417399648e-05

Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: Cumulative Effects of Financial Amplification after a Shock to Profits

Periods Following Shock	Cumulative Difference between Actual and Counterfactual Investment Response	Cumulative Difference between Actual and Counterfactual Profits Response
0	0	0.00000
1	0	0.00000
2	0.001556872734	0.00544
3	0.00315867301672597	0.00701
4	0.00453193521515444	0.00633
5	0.00545412740539348	0.00521
6	0.00607062520128632	0.00454
7	0.00648645692962699	0.00418
8	0.00677751071940045	0.00396
9	0.00697651729738229	0.00379
10	0.00710613205922499	0.00367
11	0.00718332150552767	0.00359
12	0.00722262292630012	0.00353
13	0.00723537072201329	0.00351
14	0.00723014139142098	0.00350
15	0.00721319767071318	0.00350
16	0.00718908282028324	0.00351
17	0.0071610533617333	0.00352
18	0.00713141110900197	0.00354
19	0.00710174351178438	0.00355
20	0.0070731073912066	0.00357

0.00704616882192880.00359

Return to Figure 8

^♣ This version is optimized for use by screen readers. Descriptions for all mathematical expressions are provided in LaTex format. A printable pdf version is available. Return to Text

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Last update: January 15, 2009