The Federal Reserve Board eagle logo links to home page
Skip to: [Printable Version (PDF)] [Bibliography] [Footnotes]
Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2010-22 ♣

Financial Market Shocks during the Great Depression

Alycia Chin and Missaka Warusawitharana

Figure 1: Stock prices, credit spreads, securities issuance, and stock market volatility

  Stock prices Credit spreads Securities issuance Stock market volatility
Jul-22 0.66989784159313 2.606412 233 0.00509552608
Aug-22 0.694914773436857 2.58819 222.6 0.00454012921810699
Sep-22 0.671185976295111 2.42735 276.3 0.0058108144
Oct-22 0.729197235593075 2.349928 170.6 0.00639812896
Nov-22 0.733045994338264 2.508295 216.9 0.00793860486111111
Dec-22 0.731085978310622 2.555263 433.2 0.00444959131944444
Jan-23 0.73972602739726 2.51788 632.8 0.00385943786982249
Feb-23 0.76231884057971 2.498947 237.6 0.00341884421487603
Mar-23 0.765774378585086 2.563152 313.9 0.00378888165680473
Apr-23 0.743269230769231 2.628247 274.4 0.00429460448
May-23 0.722549019607843 2.647408 348.2 0.00763394615384615
Jun-23 0.706175298804781 2.713473 326.7 0.00840784674556213
Jul-23 0.6947261663286 2.834657 237.3 0.00761143744
Aug-23 0.702757916241062 2.862331 137.4 0.00481497568
Sep-23 0.695085255767302 2.852749 205.5 0.00574883958333333
Oct-23 0.684738955823293 2.888901 246.4 0.00562278343195266
Nov-23 0.712981744421907 2.861791 374.9 0.00372344131944444
Dec-23 0.739572736520855 2.862331 266.3 0.00396642048
Jan-24 0.751503006012024 2.779795 250.9 0.00394580384615385
Feb-24 0.754 2.70568 254.9 0.00615559697542533
Mar-24 0.748733535967579 2.649663 287.3 0.00435576449704142
Apr-24 0.739754098360656 2.650918 265.9 0.00573608224
May-24 0.749219562955255 2.671625 181.2 0.00440176256
Jun-24 0.770767613038906 2.69466 290.1 0.00369097664
Jul-24 0.799791449426486 2.592615 275.8 0.00254518284023669
Aug-24 0.815195071868583 2.640229 272.2 0.00420220976331361
Sep-24 0.806153846153846 2.668091 279.3 0.00480452832
Oct-24 0.787018255578093 2.6131 384 0.00515770769230769
Nov-24 0.822289156626506 2.50916 197.5 0.00476272930056711
Dec-24 0.845249755142018 2.376312 310 0.00487478431952663
Jan-25 0.868599033816425 2.357524 473.3 0.00495356538461538
Feb-25 0.867942583732057 2.291955 383.6 0.00524697272727273
Mar-25 0.842557251908397 2.282336 324.3 0.00944722840236686
Apr-25 0.853515625 2.358196 355.6 0.00422085472
May-25 0.883447600391773 2.312517 247.5 0.00315660768
Jun-25 0.887814313346228 2.276614 208 0.00461220650887574
Jul-25 0.901529636711281 2.295448 321.1 0.00295661153846154
Aug-25 0.91746641074856 2.275313 191.1 0.00345465088757396
Sep-25 0.943105110896818 2.237656 234.1 0.0063868848
Oct-25 0.974903474903475 2.238295 278.1 0.00359117337278107
Nov-25 0.997129186602871 2.267196 251.4 0.00830784839319471
Dec-25 1.02417794970986 2.238722 374 0.0032969472
Jan-26 1.03764478764479 2.211088 546.9 0.0052260384
Feb-26 1.05288932419197 2.202921 351.7 0.00551924421487603
Mar-26 1.00796812749004 2.231214 301.1 0.0115985028806584
Apr-26 0.98001998001998 2.174828 438.3 0.00586383456
May-26 0.97910447761194 2.090469 253.7 0.00445013611111111
Jun-26 1.02089552238806 2.033774 278.3 0.00415018579881657
Jul-26 1.06130653266332 2.014676 269.1 0.00444585728
Aug-26 1.0979797979798 2.014292 154.5 0.00535092485207101
Sep-26 1.10431293881645 1.995388 277.2 0.00584324375
Oct-26 1.079476861167 2.03358 244.8 0.00823459648
Nov-26 1.10670731707317 2.053656 271.6 0.00384850833333333
Dec-26 1.13687436159346 2.02645 302.1 0.00360263076923077
Jan-27 1.15424430641822 2.008484 385.4 0.00338030912
Feb-27 1.18769551616267 2.018531 583.8 0.00279547520661157
Mar-27 1.21904761904762 2.077524 425.1 0.00526961207133059
Apr-27 1.25186766275347 2.040008 456.1 0.003285856
May-27 1.28708644610459 2.097678 644.9 0.00304326592
Jun-27 1.29957356076759 2.116025 548.6 0.00456559072
Jul-27 1.31562167906482 2.096674 340.1 0.00249454304
Aug-27 1.35294117647059 2.069039 287.5 0.00569092839506173
Sep-27 1.39689119170984 2.0315 380.1 0.00583523904
Oct-27 1.37938144329897 2.00323 651.1 0.00737048064
Nov-27 1.41571871768356 2.032863 551.9 0.00478459166666667
Dec-27 1.45144628099174 2.062522 715.7 0.00397256094674556
Jan-28 1.47352024922118 2.08131 619.5 0.00549110336
Feb-28 1.44917012448133 2.052633 598 0.00405387183364839
Mar-28 1.51666666666667 2.062522 627.2 0.00547235555555555
Apr-28 1.58865979381443 2.042943 819.2 0.00710472892561983
May-28 1.62222222222222 2.0896 675.7 0.00812552107438017
Jun-28 1.56530612244898 2.164421 655.6 0.00962313727810651
Jul-28 1.55408163265306 2.067059 497.4 0.00629866528
Aug-28 1.58181818181818 2.037471 253.2 0.00504356817558299
Sep-28 1.654 2.037861 356.3 0.00453485381944444
Oct-28 1.71779141104294 2.018724 632.6 0.00455958165680473
Nov-28 1.86866597724922 2.077325 675 0.00519086805293006
Dec-28 1.8717683557394 2.056997 833.5 0.01004674592
Jan-29 2.01234567901235 2.017759 608.7 0.00659641952662722
Feb-29 2.03619441571872 1.949603 908.3 0.009333255
Mar-29 2.04820512820513 1.956823 874.5 0.00996802847222222
Apr-29 2.03512396694215 2.062716 470.3 0.00732435946745562
May-29 2.06993736951983 2.062716 520.1 0.0108736840236686
Jun-29 2.08921161825726 2.146722 680.4 0.00511138848
Jul-29 2.23367346938776 2.204393 705.1 0.00557936272189349
Aug-29 2.35 2.221784 565.8 0.00815335325443787
Sep-29 2.4265306122449 2.306841 599 0.00970970347222222
Oct-29 2.21875 2.384244 812.4 0.0305025893491124
Nov-29 1.69787234042553 2.560079 236.8 0.0379439328719723
Dec-29 1.72765957446809 2.474924 243.9 0.01730416288
Jan-30 1.7741935483871 2.378904 771.8 0.00588166804733728
Feb-30 1.92087912087912 2.369915 242.3 0.00770436776859504
Mar-30 2.02222222222222 2.334811 762.6 0.00601862366863905
Apr-30 2.12333333333333 2.229011 641.8 0.00710265833333333
May-30 2.02247191011236 2.305991 524.3 0.01155645536
Jun-30 1.8551724137931 2.420824 571.7 0.01978827296
Jul-30 1.87738095238095 2.411369 569 0.0124104672
Aug-30 1.85595238095238 2.363859 391.7 0.00989196992
Sep-30 1.8702380952381 2.307537 319.3 0.00955761728
Oct-30 1.62289156626506 2.610715 170.2 0.0190369094674556
Nov-30 1.52098765432099 2.922286 134.6 0.0155542858223062
Dec-30 1.44375 3.325224 120.6 0.0141265807692308
Jan-31 1.51923076923077 3.06307 580.7 0.0118011940828402
Feb-31 1.64285714285714 2.938021 111.2 0.00856884545454545
Mar-31 1.68947368421053 3.023453 431.3 0.0104350443786982
Apr-31 1.53733333333333 3.29585 372.6 0.0123161328
May-31 1.41780821917808 3.794854 205.1 0.01147534272
Jun-31 1.39444444444444 4.019735 231.3 0.0237037417159763
Jul-31 1.44027777777778 3.739198 143.2 0.0133538230769231
Aug-31 1.4 4.07367 43.7 0.0102983384615385
Sep-31 1.21549295774648 4.562593 65.7 0.0181864041666667
Oct-31 1.05285714285714 5.088792 13.7 0.0289875576923077
Nov-31 1.08142857142857 4.987861 40 0.0173672907372401
Dec-31 0.884057971014493 6.057368 23.1 0.02234062592
Jan-32 0.914925373134328 4.565205 47.2 0.0197009392
Feb-32 0.903030303030303 4.470647 47.7 0.0250723652173913
Mar-32 0.909090909090909 4.616566 77.7 0.0170212840236686
Apr-32 0.701515151515151 6.334423 72.7 0.0195907538461538
May-32 0.65625 7.310929 1 0.02011717984
Jun-32 0.5609375 7.212341 40.9 0.0265865420118343
Jul-32 0.583076923076923 6.729226 110.3 0.0211904958333333
Aug-32 0.866153846153846 4.507779 101 0.0263988938271605
Sep-32 0.946153846153846 3.971522 8.7 0.0323056624
Oct-32 0.8234375 4.203174 73.3 0.02707049728
Nov-32 0.785602503912363 4.526258 39 0.0216752243055556
Dec-32 0.800319488817891 4.789129 13 0.0141482349112426
Jan-33 0.849180327868852 4.536119 65.2 0.0112264972222222
Feb-33 0.794314381270903 4.781712 0.2 0.019271732231405
Mar-33 0.757475083056478 5.172348 4.6 0.0289945148148148
Apr-33 0.83112582781457 5.364983 29.5 0.0238932673611111
May-33 1.05901116427432 4.208354 1.5 0.0172691192307692
Jun-33 1.21692307692308 3.671708 0.8 0.0199069698224852
Jul-33 1.23367198838897 3.260226 53.2 0.02670285
Aug-33 1.1410071942446 3.391124 0.5 0.0187796865784499
Sep-33 1.11581920903955 3.877707 39.6 0.0178945538194444
Oct-33 1.02949438202247 4.053519 1.4 0.02635357184
Nov-33 1.0267229254571 4.276096 10.6 0.0155262902777778
Dec-33 1.04943502824859 3.99523 22.5 0.01143820448
Jan-34 1.10664819944598 3.335068 30.7 0.0109390710059172
Feb-34 1.15489130434783 2.815206 0.4 0.0127150512396694
Mar-34 1.10312075983718 2.922007 41.7 0.0133776692307692
Apr-34 1.14111261872456 2.773705 20.7 0.00654184544
May-34 1.02849389416554 2.898754 34.4 0.0121387621301775
Jun-34 1.0402144772118 2.947018 179 0.0124444343195266
Jul-34 1.00802139037433 3.071277 236.4 0.01371990496
Aug-34 0.93717277486911 3.303087 28.1 0.0123977489711934
Sep-34 0.911082474226804 3.21332 16.5 0.0107640875
Oct-34 0.928198433420366 3.150619 53.9 0.00876729053254438
Nov-34 0.958169934640523 3.151521 13.2 0.00787421814744801
Dec-34 0.950585175552666 3.078048 40.6 0.00672185472
Jan-35 0.934010152284264 2.968714 42.3 0.00691379526627219
Feb-35 0.89937106918239 3.027921 5.5 0.00821774380165289
Mar-35 0.856423173803526 3.283062 133.5 0.00940058639053254
Apr-35 0.890137328339576 3.246323 277.1 0.00889736544
May-35 0.962593516209476 3.086606 161 0.00818793727810651
Jun-35 1.0062656641604 2.926008 358.5 0.00861029408
Jul-35 1.05541561712846 2.860629 451 0.00616523461538462
Aug-35 1.09316770186335 2.707279 131.3 0.0084269037037037
Sep-35 1.11276332094176 2.572366 252.4 0.00735388680555556
Oct-35 1.12919254658385 2.581841 282.3 0.00841560917159763
Nov-35 1.23449131513648 2.497009 259.2 0.00947817844990548
Dec-35 1.24969097651422 2.373628 252.7 0.0081279536
Jan-36 1.33126550868486 2.1175 258.2 0.00693146390532544
Feb-36 1.3970223325062 1.956029 140.4 0.00756728128544423
Mar-36 1.44221105527638 2.071665 331.8 0.0104731408284024
Apr-36 1.41279799247177 2.148548 783.5 0.01118629856
May-36 1.36895674300254 2.19662 192.5 0.00827492768
Jun-36 1.40782828282828 2.158496 547.6 0.00649507307692308
Jul-36 1.44347826086957 2.111023 483.9 0.00589500946745562
Aug-36 1.46078431372549 2.054569 246.1 0.00706068698224852
Sep-36 1.47671568627451 1.949681 190.3 0.00568887744
Oct-36 1.55337423312883 1.853693 355.4 0.0057663775147929
Nov-36 1.59101941747573 1.9223 217.5 0.00987348760330579
Dec-36 1.54394299287411 1.951376 462.8 0.00653750304
Jan-37 1.55413271245634 1.95213 258.5 0.00585035648
Feb-37 1.58400926998841 2.000164 209.4 0.00593324049586777
Mar-37 1.55580865603645 2.007015 233.7 0.00820500443786982
Apr-37 1.45568181818182 1.965003 88.8 0.0108095346153846
May-37 1.41075514874142 2.003921 116.9 0.00844775416666667
Jun-37 1.37155963302752 2.089729 287.6 0.00880568461538461
Jul-37 1.43344709897611 2.1096 140.8 0.0076300544
Aug-37 1.45485714285714 2.119132 45.9 0.00732838076923077
Sep-37 1.27002288329519 2.298952 34.1 0.01948853856
Oct-37 1.10421545667447 2.650434 154.8 0.02568157376
Nov-37 1.0516206482593 2.983006 27.8 0.0239517342155009
Dec-37 1.04895960832313 2.936871 27 0.0136652050295858
Jan-38 1.08034610630408 3.107567 48.9 0.01557959776
Feb-38 1.06766917293233 3.192831 70 0.0156091772727273
Mar-38 0.993726474278545 3.503757 61 0.0154019637860082
Apr-38 0.972045743329098 3.683041 60 0.02209570048
May-38 0.986093552465234 3.404462 42.3 0.01356270592
Jun-38 1.00504413619168 3.573691 243.5 0.0156637230769231
Jul-38 1.18781725888325 2.988452 132.2 0.013586088
Aug-38 1.20358514724712 2.865581 230.9 0.0112041887517147
Sep-38 1.14431673052363 2.948876 85.3 0.0213938176
Oct-38 1.26282051282051 2.77154 356.1 0.00979196736
Nov-38 1.27435897435897 2.628563 66.3 0.0108420699432892
Dec-38 1.26103896103896 2.676325 193.3 0.00741621153846154
Jan-39 1.25974025974026 2.553248 15.5 0.01264357056
Feb-39 1.23506493506493 2.515917 129.3 0.00927993925619835
Mar-39 1.24675324675325 2.461158 59 0.0126487283950617
Apr-39 1.11842105263158 2.747823 213.9 0.0151475496527778
May-39 1.16315789473684 2.79887 24.8 0.00810845976331361
Jun-39 1.18289473684211 2.685632 225.1 0.00840468047337278
Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Production, prices, and employment

  Industrial production Manufacturing employment Weekly hours Wholesale price index
Jul-22 77 7419 43.16582 107.9269
Aug-22 74 7510 43.79532 107.9269
Sep-22 76 7565 44.06511 107.2728
Oct-22 80 7694 44.60468 107.9269
Nov-22 83 7883 44.69461 102.04
Dec-22 85 8080 44.87447 102.04
Jan-23 83 8210 46.34932 102.2
Feb-23 85 8301 46.07122 103.5
Mar-23 87 8369 46.44201 104.6
Apr-23 89 8448 46.53471 104
May-23 90 8487 46.25661 102
Jun-23 89 8569 45.88582 100.4
Jul-23 88 8580 45.60772 98.6
Aug-23 86 8493 45.23693 97.9
Sep-23 86 8404 44.49534 99.7
Oct-23 84 8310 44.95884 99.6
Nov-23 84 8285 44.68074 98.6
Dec-23 83 8203 44.68074 98.3
Jan-24 84 8176 44.87144 99.8
Feb-24 86 8193 44.87144 100
Mar-24 85 8147 44.31287 98.7
Apr-24 83 8052 44.40596 97.6
May-24 78 7840 43.38193 96.1
Jun-24 75 7622 42.54408 95.1
Jul-24 73 7451 41.89242 95.9
Aug-24 77 7452 42.35789 97.4
Sep-24 79 7523 43.19574 97.5
Oct-24 81 7591 44.21978 98.6
Nov-24 83 7625 43.66121 99.6
Dec-24 86 7791 44.68525 102.1
Jan-25 88 7890 44.76923 103.5
Feb-25 89 7921 44.76923 104.5
Mar-25 89 7932 44.86154 104.8
Apr-25 89 7962 44.4 102.4
May-25 89 7991 44.30769 102.1
Jun-25 88 8009 43.75385 103.4
Jul-25 90 8090 43.75385 104.6
Aug-25 88 8106 43.93846 104.2
Sep-25 89 8122 44.67692 103.7
Oct-25 93 8187 44.67692 103.6
Nov-25 96 8253 44.86154 104.5
Dec-25 97 8266 45.23077 103.4
Jan-26 95 8275 45.24931 103.6
Feb-26 94 8226 45.81025 102.1
Mar-26 94 8205 45.62327 100.4
Apr-26 94 8185 44.96884 100.1
May-26 94 8175 44.78186 100.5
Jun-26 94 8202 44.78186 100.5
Jul-26 94 8205 44.40789 99.5
Aug-26 96 8228 44.40789 99
Sep-26 97 8251 45.3428 99.7
Oct-26 97 8238 45.52978 99.4
Nov-26 95 8205 44.50138 98.4
Dec-26 95 8160 44.59488 97.9
Jan-27 95 8103 45.35359 96.6
Feb-27 95 8108 45.63646 95.9
Mar-27 96 8112 45.54217 94.5
Apr-27 96 8085 45.16501 93.7
May-27 96 8089 45.44788 93.7
Jun-27 96 8104 44.97643 93.8
Jul-27 96 8063 44.31639 94.1
Aug-27 95 8037 44.88214 95.2
Sep-27 93 8007 44.97643 96.5
Oct-27 92 7943 44.69356 97
Nov-27 91 7906 44.41069 96.7
Dec-27 92 7887 44.59927 96.8
Jan-28 95 7875 44.46948 96.3
Feb-28 96 7888 44.84006 96.4
Mar-28 95 7907 44.65477 96
Apr-28 96 7883 43.91362 97
May-28 97 7938 44.19155 99
Jun-28 98 7990 44.46948 98
Jul-28 100 8049 44.0989 98
Aug-28 101 8121 44.37684 99
Sep-28 102 8138 44.74742 100
Oct-28 104 8185 44.37684 97.8
Nov-28 106 8271 44.19155 96.7
Dec-28 108 8348 44.46948 96.7
Jan-29 108 8435 44.4362 97.2
Feb-29 108 8487 44.89336 96.7
Mar-29 110 8526 44.80193 97.5
Apr-29 111 8610 44.61906 96.8
May-29 113 8635 44.4362 95.8
Jun-29 115 8673 44.25333 96.4
Jul-29 115 8753 44.25333 98
Aug-29 114 8747 44.1619 98
Sep-29 113 8652 44.61906 98
Oct-29 111 8607 45.07623 96
Nov-29 105 8447 42.24182 94
Dec-29 99 8240 42.60755 94
Jan-30 100 8158 44.31411 93
Feb-30 100 8016 44.7937 91
Mar-30 98 7917 44.02635 90
Apr-30 98 7857 43.93044 90
May-30 96 7742 43.06717 89
Jun-30 93 7612 42.6835 87
Jul-30 88 7400 41.14882 84
Aug-30 86 7193 40.66922 84
Sep-30 84 7089 40.66922 84
Oct-30 82 6981 40.86106 83
Nov-30 80 6873 39.32637 81
Dec-30 78 6772 39.71004 80
Jan-31 78 6653 40.34111 78
Feb-31 79 6568 42.44848 77
Mar-31 80 6612 42.44848 76
Apr-31 80 6583 42.04708 75
May-31 80 6546 42.95024 73
Jun-31 77 6400 41.44497 72
Jul-31 75 6334 40.24076 72
Aug-31 73 6222 39.83936 72
Sep-31 69 6087 39.5383 71
Oct-31 66 5908 38.23374 70
Nov-31 65 5857 37.93269 70
Dec-31 64 5888 38.53479 69
Jan-32 64 5841 38.6 67
Feb-32 62 5778 39.7 66
Mar-32 60 5691 39.1 66
Apr-32 56 5486 37.8 66
May-32 55 5285 37.7 64
Jun-32 53 5133 36.8 64
Jul-32 51 4983 36 65
Aug-32 53 4999 36.7 65
Sep-32 56 5138 39 65
Oct-32 58 5270 40.2 64
Nov-32 58 5350 39 63.9
Dec-32 57 5316 38.6 62.6
Jan-33 56 5273 37.7 61
Feb-33 55 5253 38.4 59.8
Mar-33 51 5059 36.7 60.2
Apr-33 57 5181 38.2 60.4
May-33 67 5437 40.9 62.7
Jun-33 78 5839 42.9 65
Jul-33 86 6223 42.8 68.9
Aug-33 81 6467 38.5 69.5
Sep-33 77 6609 36.3 70.8
Oct-33 73 6635 35.8 71.2
Nov-33 68 6555 34.3 71.1
Dec-33 69 6491 34.1 70.8
Jan-34 70 6551 33.7 72.2
Feb-34 74 6788 35.7 73.6
Mar-34 78 7068 36.1 73.7
Apr-34 79 7178 36 73.7
May-34 80 7227 35.5 73.7
Jun-34 78 7148 34.8 74.6
Jul-34 72 7038 33.2 74.8
Aug-34 71 6949 33.9 76.4
Sep-34 68 6514 33.3 77.6
Oct-34 70 6733 34.2 76.6
Nov-34 71 6780 33.9 76.5
Dec-34 77 6966 35.1 76.9
Jan-35 83 7204 35.2 78.8
Feb-35 85 7298 36.4 79.5
Mar-35 84 7408 36.5 79.4
Apr-35 83 7403 36.3 80.1
May-35 82 7319 35.6 80.2
Jun-35 83 7231 35.3 79.8
Jul-35 85 7236 35.3 79.4
Aug-35 88 7288 36.7 80.5
Sep-35 90 7356 37.5 80.7
Oct-35 93 7477 38.2 80.5
Nov-35 95 7616 37.7 80.6
Dec-35 96 7679 38.6 80.9
Jan-36 94 7716 37.4 80.6
Feb-36 91 7598 37.5 80.6
Mar-36 94 7613 38.6 79.6
Apr-36 99 7731 38.7 79.7
May-36 102 7861 39.2 78.6
Jun-36 104 8008 39.2 79.2
Jul-36 106 8090 38.6 80.5
Aug-36 108 8098 39.6 81.6
Sep-36 109 8162 38.9 81.6
Oct-36 110 8268 40.6 81.5
Nov-36 114 8408 40.6 82.4
Dec-36 117 8610 41.2 84.2
Jan-37 118 8699 39.7 85.9
Feb-37 119 8813 40.6 86.3
Mar-37 120 8921 41.1 87.8
Apr-37 122 9015 40.4 88
May-37 123 9113 39.9 87.4
Jun-37 120 9101 39.3 87.2
Jul-37 121 9120 38.1 87.9
Aug-37 121 8989 38.8 87.5
Sep-37 115 8826 37.6 87.4
Oct-37 106 8658 37.7 85.4
Nov-37 93 8316 35.6 83.3
Dec-37 84 7917 34.6 81.7
Jan-38 82 7632 33.5 80.9
Feb-38 82 7593 34.5 79.8
Mar-38 82 7503 34.8 79.7
Apr-38 79 7372 34.4 78.7
May-38 79 7249 34.6 79.1
Jun-38 79 7177 34.6 79.3
Jul-38 84 7217 35.1 78.8
Aug-38 89 7375 36.6 78.1
Sep-38 91 7498 37.2 78.3
Oct-38 95 7522 37.7 78
Nov-38 100 7714 36.7 78
Dec-38 101 7884 37.5 77
Jan-39 101 7917 36.7 77
Feb-39 101 8001 37.2 77
Mar-39 100 8107 37.5 77
Apr-39 98 8125 36.7 76
May-39 98 8100 36.9 76
Jun-39 102 8123 37.4 76
Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Durable and nondurable goods sectors

  Durables sector output Durables sector employment Nondurables sector output Nondurables sector employment
Jan-23 98 100.2 71 103.1
Feb-23 99 101.6 73 103.6
Mar-23 103 103 74 104.9
Apr-23 107 104.2 75 105.7
May-23 108 105 75 106
Jun-23 108 106.3 75 106
Jul-23 108 106.4 72 104.8
Aug-23 104 105.9 71 103.6
Sep-23 105 105.3 71 102.4
Oct-23 102 104.4 69 101.1
Nov-23 103 104.2 69 100.8
Dec-23 102 103 68 100.3
Jan-24 103 103.1 70 100.4
Feb-24 106 103.2 70 100.5
Mar-24 105 103.1 70 99.7
Apr-24 100 101.8 69 98.2
May-24 91 97.8 68 96.4
Jun-24 86 93.9 66 94.5
Jul-24 83 90.8 65 92.3
Aug-24 89 90.6 67 93.2
Sep-24 91 91.2 69 94.4
Oct-24 93 92.5 71 94.9
Nov-24 96 92.9 73 95.4
Dec-24 100 95.5 74 97.3
Jan-25 105 97.6 75 98.4
Feb-25 105 97.9 76 99.2
Mar-25 106 98 76 99.3
Apr-25 104 98.4 76 99.6
May-25 105 98.4 76 99.4
Jun-25 105 98.3 75 99.6
Jul-25 105 98.4 77 100.5
Aug-25 102 98.8 77 100.7
Sep-25 105 99.7 76 100.1
Oct-25 113 101.6 77 100.6
Nov-25 118 103 78 101.2
Dec-25 119 103.9 79 101.1
Jan-26 115 103.9 79 101.6
Feb-26 114 103.8 79 101.1
Mar-26 113 103.2 78 100.8
Apr-26 113 102.8 78 100.6
May-26 114 102 77 100.4
Jun-26 115 102.2 78 100.4
Jul-26 115 102.4 78 99.5
Aug-26 116 102.8 80 100.3
Sep-26 116 102.9 82 101.1
Oct-26 116 102.4 82 101.4
Nov-26 113 101.4 81 101.4
Dec-26 111 100.2 82 101.8
Jan-27 110 98.7 82 102.2
Feb-27 112 99.1 82 102.4
Mar-27 112 98.6 83 102.3
Apr-27 111 97.9 83 102.4
May-27 111 97.6 84 102.4
Jun-27 108 97.2 86 103
Jul-27 107 96.2 86 103
Aug-27 106 96.1 85 102.9
Sep-27 103 95.1 84 102.8
Oct-27 101 94.6 83 102.2
Nov-27 100 93.6 83 102
Dec-27 104 93.1 82 101.5
Jan-28 110 93 82 101.4
Feb-28 110 93.9 83 101.5
Mar-28 110 94.4 83 101.2
Apr-28 113 94.7 82 100.6
May-28 112 95.9 84 100.3
Jun-28 115 97.1 84 100.3
Jul-28 118 97.8 84 100.6
Aug-28 120 99.6 86 101.2
Sep-28 122 100.4 86 101.3
Oct-28 124 101 87 102.3
Nov-28 126 102 89 103.3
Dec-28 131 102.5 90 104.1
Jan-29 131 104.4 90 103.9
Feb-29 130 105.4 90 104.5
Mar-29 133 105.8 91 104.8
Apr-29 134 106.8 92 106.1
May-29 136 107.4 94 105.7
Jun-29 141 108.2 95 106
Jul-29 141 109.2 94 107.1
Aug-29 140 109.7 94 107.3
Sep-29 137 108.2 94 106.5
Oct-29 131 106.4 94 106.8
Nov-29 121 102.8 91 105.8
Dec-29 111 99.3 89 104.3
Jan-30 113 98 89 103.1
Feb-30 114 96.5 88 101.3
Mar-30 112 95.1 87 100.2
Apr-30 110 93.8 88 100.1
May-30 107 92.2 86 99
Jun-30 103 89.7 85 97.9
Jul-30 95 86.3 83 95.9
Aug-30 92 83.4 81 94.3
Sep-30 89 81.2 81 93.8
Oct-30 84 80.2 80 92.9
Nov-30 80 78.4 80 91.9
Dec-30 77 76.5 79 90.7
Jan-31 77 74.7 79 89.7
Feb-31 77 73.3 80 89.1
Mar-31 79 72.6 81 89.2
Apr-31 77 72 82 89.5
May-31 75 70.8 83 90.1
Jun-31 70 69 82 89
Jul-31 67 67.3 82 89.6
Aug-31 63 65.7 81 88.8
Sep-31 58 64.2 79 87.3
Oct-31 55 61.9 75 85.4
Nov-31 55 60.9 74 83.8
Dec-31 54 60.6 73 83.8
Jan-32 52 59.8 73 83.2
Feb-32 48 59.2 73 83
Mar-32 45 57.4 72 81.7
Apr-32 43 55 67 79.6
May-32 42 53.2 65 77
Jun-32 40 51.9 64 74.8
Jul-32 36 50.1 63 73
Aug-32 34 48.8 67 75.4
Sep-32 37 48.7 72 79.4
Oct-32 39 49.4 74 81.4
Nov-32 39 50.3 73 81.4
Dec-32 39 49.9 71 80.4
Jan-33 39 49.1 71 80
Feb-33 37 49 70 80.2
Mar-33 32 46.8 66 76.9
Apr-33 39 47.5 72 79.2
May-33 49 50.1 82 83.4
Jun-33 63 54.6 91 88.9
Jul-33 76 60 94 94.1
Aug-33 73 64.8 88 96.4
Sep-33 67 67.8 84 97.1
Oct-33 64 67.9 80 97.2
Nov-33 54 66.3 78 95.3
Dec-33 57 66.3 78 93.2
Jan-34 59 67 80 93.7
Feb-34 66 70.2 81 97.1
Mar-34 71 73.4 83 99.7
Apr-34 74 76 84 100
May-34 76 77.2 83 100.3
Jun-34 76 76.9 80 99.2
Jul-34 63 75.8 80 98.4
Aug-34 60 73.4 81 98.7
Sep-34 58 71.3 76 90.8
Oct-34 57 70.3 81 98
Nov-34 57 70.4 82 98.1
Dec-34 65 72.9 86 99.3
Jan-35 77 76.6 88 100.4
Feb-35 80 79.2 89 100.4
Mar-35 80 80.1 88 100.8
Apr-35 78 80.4 87 100.7
May-35 75 79.7 87 100
Jun-35 77 78.3 88 99.6
Jul-35 79 79.7 89 100.1
Aug-35 86 81.4 90 100.2
Sep-35 88 82.3 92 100.8
Oct-35 93 84.3 94 101.4
Nov-35 95 85.7 95 102
Dec-35 97 86.4 96 102.3
Jan-36 94 86.6 95 101.7
Feb-36 90 85.2 92 100
Mar-36 95 85.5 94 100.1
Apr-36 103 87.5 96 100.8
May-36 107 89.4 97 101.6
Jun-36 110 90.6 99 102.5
Jul-36 112 92.4 100 104.2
Aug-36 114 92.8 103 105.4
Sep-36 115 93.8 104 105.7
Oct-36 115 95.4 105 106
Nov-36 120 97.7 108 107.6
Dec-36 125 100.6 111 109.1
Jan-37 127 100.3 111 109.9
Feb-37 127 102.1 112 109.8
Mar-37 129 104.3 113 110.2
Apr-37 132 106.2 114 110.4
May-37 134 107.4 114 110.6
Jun-37 129 106.6 113 110
Jul-37 135 108.6 110 109.9
Aug-37 139 108.3 107 108.9
Sep-37 128 107.6 104 106.8
Oct-37 114 105.4 99 104.7
Nov-37 94 99.8 92 101.3
Dec-37 80 91.9 87 98.1
Jan-38 75 83.7 88 96
Feb-38 73 81 90 96.4
Mar-38 72 79 90 95.4
Apr-38 69 76.2 88 94.1
May-38 67 74.1 88 92.9
Jun-38 65 71.9 90 92.4
Jul-38 71 70.7 95 94.5
Aug-38 77 72 99 97.1
Sep-38 81 75.8 100 97.6
Oct-38 88 78.3 100 101.5
Nov-38 96 82.1 103 103.1
Dec-38 97 83.7 104 104.7
Jan-39 98 84.4 104 104.4
Feb-39 97 84.2 104 103.9
Mar-39 96 83.7 104 103.8
Apr-39 93 83.9 103 103.3
May-39 90 82.9 104 103.3
Jun-39 97 83.9 106 104.2
Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: Responses to stock prices Panel A: Impulse response function (total hours and output)

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0.705203 0.384876 1.02553 0.754896 0.440841 1.06895
2 0.994204 0.418441 1.56997 1.13727 0.488649 1.78588
3 0.878613 0.05805 1.69918 1.15302 0.218003 2.08803
4 0.536241 -0.460094 1.53258 1.06608 -0.085175 2.21734
5 0.484335 -0.665759 1.63443 0.96503 -0.375316 2.30538
6 0.946014 -0.375508 2.26754 1.45294 -0.088829 2.99471
7 1.05122 -0.42181 2.52425 1.74071 0.044867 3.43655
8 1.55007 -0.033033 3.13318 2.39089 0.556472 4.22531
9 2.24335 0.53694 3.94976 3.09807 1.0965 5.09964
10 2.5593 0.739788 4.37882 3.55208 1.38751 5.71665
11 2.92645 0.952645 4.90026 4.02909 1.68807 6.3701
12 2.40255 0.297192 4.50791 3.64974 1.14864 6.15083
13 2.20985 -0.047547 4.46725 3.17656 0.528849 5.82427
14 1.9839 -0.385885 4.35368 2.7917 0.015468 5.56793
15 2.0787 -0.373901 4.5313 2.73843 -0.081872 5.55874
16 2.13339 -0.337412 4.60418 2.97368 0.135187 5.81218
17 2.26157 -0.215104 4.73825 3.20137 0.345179 6.05757
18 2.41037 -0.074753 4.8955 3.31709 0.461371 6.17281
19 2.5418 0.013351 5.07024 3.36134 0.487605 6.23508
20 2.41655 -0.118045 4.95114 3.12637 0.256463 5.99628
21 2.32443 -0.2343 4.88315 2.94002 0.081801 5.79824
22 2.04341 -0.518336 4.60515 2.69204 -0.163717 5.5478
23 1.90608 -0.676296 4.48846 2.52335 -0.319714 5.36642
24 1.72766 -0.874046 4.32936 2.46146 -0.382614 5.30554
Return to Figure 4

Figure 4: Responses to stock prices Panel B: Forecast error variance decomposition

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0.061597 -0.00099 0.124184 0.064792 0.005731 0.123853
3 0.061533 -0.00652 0.129586 0.069601 -0.003719 0.14292
4 0.062483 -0.004833 0.129799 0.067704 -0.005886 0.141295
5 0.073117 -0.000189 0.146423 0.066868 -0.00612 0.139856
6 0.072683 -0.001304 0.14667 0.066575 -0.006875 0.140025
7 0.090965 0.011811 0.170119 0.085512 0.007601 0.163422
8 0.090886 0.010473 0.171299 0.09138 0.006644 0.176115
9 0.110746 0.024721 0.196771 0.120917 0.021229 0.220606
10 0.147214 0.044069 0.25036 0.15413 0.041066 0.267194
11 0.152732 0.048593 0.25687 0.164804 0.048698 0.28091
12 0.156765 0.052935 0.260596 0.172948 0.055318 0.290578
13 0.170983 0.070901 0.271064 0.17848 0.068058 0.288902
14 0.171134 0.07158 0.270689 0.187213 0.073309 0.301116
15 0.170151 0.07033 0.269972 0.188644 0.072665 0.304623
16 0.16595 0.06767 0.26423 0.183529 0.069958 0.297101
17 0.164987 0.06718 0.262794 0.185902 0.072083 0.299721
18 0.165656 0.066468 0.264844 0.188289 0.073157 0.303422
19 0.164711 0.066015 0.263407 0.186252 0.072314 0.30019
20 0.164703 0.066153 0.263253 0.184905 0.071853 0.297958
21 0.165204 0.065435 0.264974 0.187233 0.072444 0.302022
22 0.165558 0.065313 0.265802 0.188451 0.072683 0.304219
23 0.169021 0.066445 0.271597 0.189599 0.073219 0.305978
24 0.169447 0.067052 0.271841 0.190428 0.074297 0.30656
Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Responses to credit spreads Panel A: Impulse response function (total hours and output)

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 -0.574794 -0.883971 -0.265618 -0.206366 -0.485804 0.073073
2 -0.641392 -1.17754 -0.10524 -0.177467 -0.761847 0.406913
3 -0.237913 -1.03447 0.558646 0.026481 -0.875133 0.928096
4 0.165837 -0.862109 1.19378 0.057938 -1.10004 1.21591
5 0.201475 -1.02234 1.42529 0.132985 -1.21514 1.48111
6 -0.018207 -1.38768 1.35126 -0.146312 -1.67729 1.38466
7 -0.468489 -1.94178 1.0048 -0.779474 -2.44986 0.890907
8 -1.22641 -2.79045 0.337621 -1.5833 -3.40355 0.236944
9 -1.7448 -3.42719 -0.06241 -2.16276 -4.15661 -0.1689
10 -2.2674 -4.08686 -0.447935 -2.83874 -4.94921 -0.728264
11 -2.51708 -4.47071 -0.563448 -3.21334 -5.48936 -0.937324
12 -1.96583 -4.02235 0.090699 -2.7199 -5.14699 -0.292809
13 -1.6321 -3.80855 0.544341 -2.06993 -4.58946 0.449604
14 -1.19456 -3.43042 1.04131 -1.31963 -3.88548 1.24621
15 -1.38302 -3.63658 0.870543 -1.385 -3.92448 1.15448
16 -1.52431 -3.80287 0.754245 -1.75514 -4.28222 0.771946
17 -1.88731 -4.19198 0.417355 -2.1854 -4.72738 0.356588
18 -2.16466 -4.47752 0.148211 -2.5053 -5.07945 0.068851
19 -2.05546 -4.41783 0.306915 -2.25575 -4.85766 0.346158
20 -1.88242 -4.23369 0.468857 -1.86228 -4.45278 0.728214
21 -1.6063 -3.94189 0.729289 -1.51141 -4.08541 1.06258
22 -1.32859 -3.68265 1.02547 -1.23903 -3.80806 1.33
23 -1.19029 -3.55297 1.1724 -1.13917 -3.69329 1.41495
24 -1.00603 -3.36361 1.35155 -1.03912 -3.58385 1.5056
Return to Figure 5

Figure 5: Responses to credit spreads Panel B: Forecast error variance decomposition

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0.045942 -0.014251 0.106134 0.005925 -0.017176 0.029025
3 0.040776 -0.015336 0.096887 0.005269 -0.021036 0.031574
4 0.059125 -0.002279 0.120529 0.009878 -0.026999 0.046754
5 0.075425 -0.000328 0.151177 0.009588 -0.033359 0.052535
6 0.074381 -0.003068 0.15183 0.00985 -0.036454 0.056154
7 0.077058 0.00171 0.152406 0.017835 -0.036169 0.071839
8 0.09511 0.010476 0.179743 0.057093 -0.023648 0.137834
9 0.144376 0.040939 0.247813 0.112336 0.00395 0.220722
10 0.164398 0.052063 0.276733 0.137392 0.013317 0.261466
11 0.181215 0.059825 0.302605 0.168635 0.032702 0.304568
12 0.183607 0.059992 0.307222 0.176496 0.035559 0.317434
13 0.197044 0.076329 0.317758 0.191451 0.055489 0.327412
14 0.202141 0.078972 0.325311 0.212632 0.074975 0.350288
15 0.209807 0.083742 0.335873 0.234989 0.090653 0.379325
16 0.205745 0.081512 0.329978 0.228241 0.085916 0.370566
17 0.20567 0.081348 0.329993 0.234308 0.091301 0.377314
18 0.213243 0.084635 0.34185 0.243294 0.095859 0.390729
19 0.216614 0.085008 0.348219 0.246362 0.096846 0.395877
20 0.216711 0.086006 0.347416 0.248492 0.101291 0.395694
21 0.21791 0.087562 0.348259 0.255596 0.108265 0.402926
22 0.22202 0.089156 0.354884 0.260401 0.111745 0.409058
23 0.225571 0.090306 0.360837 0.261099 0.111515 0.410682
24 0.224542 0.089147 0.359938 0.260167 0.110619 0.409715
Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: Responses to securities issuance Panel A: Impulse response function (total hours and output)

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0.315669 -0.006135 0.637473 0.414612 0.064984 0.764241
2 0.378961 -0.18102 0.938941 0.479408 -0.212879 1.1717
3 0.45002 -0.362404 1.26244 0.417408 -0.604502 1.43932
4 0.020577 -0.952471 0.993625 -0.030654 -1.30006 1.23876
5 -0.371761 -1.47182 0.728301 -0.303566 -1.73252 1.12539
6 0.001506 -1.23753 1.24054 0.056506 -1.53101 1.64403
7 0.379391 -0.936128 1.69491 0.292213 -1.38931 1.97373
8 0.682199 -0.71443 2.07883 0.712379 -1.05867 2.48343
9 1.12762 -0.386731 2.64197 1.28078 -0.604247 3.1658
10 1.60532 -0.055186 3.26583 1.67573 -0.343494 3.69495
11 2.04241 0.238372 3.84644 1.83687 -0.33605 4.0098
12 1.50367 -0.40111 3.40845 1.59474 -0.71761 3.90709
13 1.35128 -0.609896 3.31245 1.53887 -0.823003 3.90074
14 1.14542 -0.856275 3.14712 1.39423 -1.01492 3.80337
15 1.23576 -0.784683 3.2562 1.22286 -1.18266 3.62838
16 1.09647 -0.919945 3.11288 1.13761 -1.23295 3.50816
17 1.11964 -0.863563 3.10284 1.22482 -1.12116 3.57081
18 1.26226 -0.718294 3.24282 1.48274 -0.851557 3.81703
19 1.5863 -0.411907 3.58451 1.57228 -0.785024 3.92959
20 1.47381 -0.562853 3.51047 1.34003 -1.05579 3.73584
21 1.20212 -0.828587 3.23282 1.05351 -1.34586 3.45287
22 0.985535 -1.06367 3.03474 0.785301 -1.62937 3.19997
23 1.00604 -1.04606 3.05815 0.578389 -1.83189 2.98867
24 0.763614 -1.29712 2.82435 0.541204 -1.84921 2.93162
Return to Figure 6

Figure 6: Responses to securities issuance Panel B: Forecast error variance decomposition

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0.012633 -0.021214 0.046481 0.018158 -0.016955 0.05327
3 0.011467 -0.02524 0.048174 0.015881 -0.022078 0.053841
4 0.011913 -0.030324 0.054151 0.016069 -0.028045 0.060184
5 0.031421 -0.02773 0.090573 0.032831 -0.027294 0.092955
6 0.046419 -0.023703 0.11654 0.038422 -0.029943 0.106787
7 0.058517 -0.012949 0.129984 0.048374 -0.021588 0.118336
8 0.071348 -0.008479 0.151174 0.052674 -0.021428 0.126775
9 0.077684 -0.007052 0.16242 0.064555 -0.017151 0.14626
10 0.09363 0.002301 0.184959 0.08721 -0.005952 0.180371
11 0.110397 0.013804 0.20699 0.09575 -0.002255 0.193754
12 0.118878 0.020958 0.216798 0.092692 -0.003178 0.188562
13 0.138813 0.03956 0.238066 0.093768 8.3e-05 0.187454
14 0.135048 0.039249 0.230847 0.090798 0.000618 0.180978
15 0.134796 0.038683 0.230909 0.088901 0.000446 0.177357
16 0.130457 0.036816 0.224099 0.088357 0.000741 0.175974
17 0.131301 0.038261 0.224341 0.08865 0.000304 0.176995
18 0.130998 0.03767 0.224326 0.088902 -0.000106 0.177909
19 0.130735 0.037727 0.223742 0.091711 0.002043 0.18138
20 0.136124 0.04161 0.230638 0.091548 0.001899 0.181197
21 0.136608 0.04263 0.230587 0.09444 0.004589 0.18429
22 0.1408 0.044354 0.237247 0.098594 0.006721 0.190468
23 0.143181 0.044431 0.24193 0.101817 0.00806 0.195574
24 0.142071 0.044154 0.239989 0.103349 0.00814 0.198557
Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: Responses of durable goods sector employment and output Panel A: Stock prices

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0.287695 0.138348 0.437042 1.52007 0.930695 2.10945
2 0.606581 0.278328 0.934834 2.47151 1.30858 3.63443
3 1.02839 0.488865 1.56792 2.86628 1.30063 4.43193
4 1.14258 0.393828 1.89133 2.87297 0.979038 4.7669
5 1.21419 0.256963 2.17142 2.94107 0.725753 5.15639
6 1.41079 0.283494 2.53808 3.44534 1.02062 5.87007
7 1.54692 0.270649 2.82319 3.73451 1.09204 6.37697
8 2.0778 0.631921 3.52368 5.24794 2.32343 8.17246
9 2.83585 1.19498 4.47671 6.77549 3.54282 10.0082
10 3.45468 1.62407 5.28529 7.62586 4.1388 11.1129
11 3.95697 1.96662 5.94732 8.79387 5.0931 12.4946
12 4.17612 2.05457 6.29768 7.84316 4.00854 11.6778
13 4.22056 1.97879 6.46233 6.57601 2.65187 10.5001
14 3.92239 1.58308 6.2617 5.79409 1.79745 9.79074
15 3.77726 1.35484 6.19968 5.58559 1.4989 9.67229
16 3.63742 1.13783 6.13702 5.70164 1.52684 9.87643
17 3.6104 1.03847 6.18234 6.12679 1.87937 10.3742
18 3.75447 1.12736 6.38157 6.36442 2.04203 10.6868
19 3.88389 1.19685 6.57094 6.51705 2.10265 10.9315
20 3.83851 1.10382 6.57319 6.05158 1.62858 10.4746
21 3.64082 0.874125 6.40751 5.66155 1.23066 10.0924
22 3.38188 0.595462 6.1683 5.1266 0.700918 9.55229
23 3.10723 0.295266 5.91919 4.84434 0.338361 9.35031
24 2.96942 0.119896 5.81895 4.54108 -0.032153 9.11432
Return to Figure 7

Figure 7: Responses of durable goods sector employment and output Panel B: Credit spreads

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 -0.010288 -0.155248 0.134672 -0.068948 -0.557341 0.419445
2 -0.078133 -0.366762 0.210496 -0.261106 -1.21195 0.689737
3 -0.16689 -0.649502 0.315723 -0.430434 -1.80693 0.946064
4 -0.158942 -0.822216 0.504333 -0.594204 -2.28228 1.09388
5 -0.175482 -1.01664 0.665681 -0.930539 -2.86371 1.00263
6 -0.202457 -1.19046 0.785543 -0.951641 -3.09167 1.18839
7 -0.410566 -1.5429 0.721772 -1.81484 -4.19629 0.566614
8 -0.984205 -2.27613 0.307722 -3.81094 -6.45671 -1.16517
9 -1.64614 -3.10384 -0.188443 -4.72947 -7.64602 -1.81292
10 -2.33001 -3.98155 -0.678467 -6.13862 -9.36919 -2.90805
11 -2.94386 -4.77825 -1.10948 -7.33298 -10.8822 -3.78381
12 -3.27251 -5.28328 -1.26174 -6.62747 -10.4952 -2.75978
13 -3.26699 -5.44078 -1.0932 -5.41879 -9.49319 -1.34438
14 -2.94437 -5.24409 -0.644645 -3.99204 -8.15165 0.167572
15 -2.85624 -5.25844 -0.45405 -4.09508 -8.29162 0.101467
16 -2.81184 -5.30058 -0.323089 -4.75862 -9.0633 -0.453937
17 -2.97944 -5.55405 -0.404829 -5.58088 -10.0352 -1.12653
18 -3.32797 -5.9898 -0.666137 -6.38683 -11.0042 -1.76946
19 -3.50314 -6.25193 -0.754362 -6.13613 -10.8454 -1.42686
20 -3.45436 -6.2753 -0.633426 -5.58815 -10.3171 -0.859192
21 -3.18909 -6.04797 -0.330214 -4.96719 -9.71003 -0.224355
22 -2.87707 -5.74968 -0.004463 -4.22858 -8.98479 0.527639
23 -2.58604 -5.46319 0.291114 -3.94555 -8.70816 0.817069
24 -2.39661 -5.26788 0.474651 -3.65102 -8.3935 1.09147
Return to Figure 7

Figure 7: Responses of durable goods sector employment and output Panel C: Securities issuance

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0.156229 0.004567 0.307892 0.668761 0.129237 1.20829
2 0.188765 -0.157301 0.534832 1.05072 -0.077934 2.17938
3 0.371892 -0.213169 0.956953 1.47972 -0.223978 3.18342
4 0.30022 -0.534992 1.13543 0.359056 -1.80998 2.52809
5 0.090723 -0.96369 1.14514 -0.011992 -2.47001 2.44603
6 -0.04053 -1.30295 1.22189 0.29652 -2.4118 3.00485
7 -0.059128 -1.49526 1.37701 0.400701 -2.51139 3.31279
8 0.095833 -1.51439 1.70605 0.968365 -2.19119 4.12792
9 0.363667 -1.43229 2.15963 2.29138 -1.11301 5.69577
10 0.73526 -1.22627 2.69679 2.9212 -0.666416 6.50882
11 0.889724 -1.22879 3.00824 2.9027 -0.86717 6.67256
12 0.90094 -1.35661 3.15849 2.47345 -1.41463 6.36153
13 0.859603 -1.51747 3.23668 2.13883 -1.90115 6.17881
14 0.735966 -1.74679 3.21872 1.88346 -2.30702 6.07394
15 0.563822 -2.01755 3.14519 1.40976 -2.86195 5.68147
16 0.476687 -2.19193 3.1453 1.08921 -3.2695 5.44792
17 0.408844 -2.31721 3.13489 1.04087 -3.31909 5.40083
18 0.420097 -2.33775 3.17794 1.50493 -2.78715 5.797
19 0.446323 -2.31499 3.20764 1.47052 -2.75611 5.69716
20 0.448388 -2.3157 3.21248 1.36669 -2.78448 5.51786
21 0.375918 -2.39761 3.14944 1.24754 -2.8731 5.36819
22 0.273205 -2.50619 3.0526 1.03625 -3.14966 5.22216
23 0.067965 -2.73648 2.87241 0.563848 -3.72379 4.85149
24 -0.065394 -2.91347 2.78268 0.457594 -3.96994 4.88513
Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: Responses of nondurable goods sector employment and output Panel A: Stock prices

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0.495744 0.31445 0.677037 0.905295 0.512686 1.2979
2 0.60899 0.32904 0.88894 1.04987 0.420868 1.67888
3 0.641689 0.243205 1.04017 0.607755 -0.186079 1.40159
4 0.639511 0.093331 1.18569 0.654824 -0.30292 1.61257
5 0.527794 -0.114637 1.17023 0.6658 -0.385548 1.71715
6 0.796829 0.051778 1.54188 1.10575 -0.086482 2.29798
7 0.774495 -0.060697 1.60969 1.21071 -0.089562 2.51097
8 0.975757 0.087389 1.86412 1.5839 0.213115 2.95468
9 1.21761 0.24673 2.18849 1.90937 0.474552 3.34419
10 1.35306 0.299859 2.40625 2.06458 0.532848 3.59631
11 1.61503 0.488114 2.74195 2.30666 0.66992 3.9434
12 1.59736 0.371195 2.82352 2.14177 0.41023 3.87331
13 1.63349 0.348779 2.9182 1.83857 0.045691 3.63144
14 1.55729 0.199084 2.9155 1.63613 -0.16965 3.44192
15 1.53207 0.149606 2.91453 1.66274 -0.130161 3.45564
16 1.41894 0.005997 2.83187 1.55593 -0.214177 3.32604
17 1.39386 -0.03437 2.82208 1.57721 -0.155103 3.30952
18 1.47164 0.048301 2.89499 1.65403 -0.067236 3.3753
19 1.51917 0.07956 2.95877 1.61897 -0.078 3.31594
20 1.51689 0.06831 2.96547 1.60524 -0.089234 3.29972
21 1.43213 -0.03991 2.90417 1.47773 -0.191596 3.14705
22 1.3196 -0.150347 2.78954 1.33127 -0.312119 2.97465
23 1.26312 -0.211784 2.73803 1.21436 -0.410429 2.83914
24 1.18976 -0.278112 2.65763 1.14294 -0.461865 2.74775
Return to Figure 8

Figure 8: Responses of nondurable goods sector employment and output Panel B: Credit spreads

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 -0.420044 -0.610136 -0.229953 -0.578661 -0.951871 -0.205451
2 -0.445591 -0.721585 -0.169596 -0.503316 -1.06431 0.057678
3 -0.420728 -0.791906 -0.049549 -0.010418 -0.692405 0.671569
4 -0.161453 -0.637765 0.314859 0.185327 -0.59667 0.967325
5 0.025852 -0.542658 0.594363 0.181445 -0.715642 1.07853
6 -0.073351 -0.713355 0.566654 -0.139598 -1.07439 0.795193
7 -0.189177 -0.882592 0.504239 -0.645383 -1.63428 0.343513
8 -0.549893 -1.30862 0.208832 -1.18915 -2.27882 -0.099486
9 -0.845001 -1.67126 -0.018743 -1.49266 -2.6723 -0.313015
10 -1.25532 -2.16639 -0.344262 -2.03965 -3.29936 -0.77994
11 -1.50852 -2.49581 -0.521224 -2.27257 -3.59076 -0.954388
12 -1.64414 -2.71422 -0.574052 -1.96583 -3.34377 -0.587895
13 -1.51856 -2.64124 -0.395867 -1.44548 -2.82113 -0.069822
14 -1.34045 -2.49958 -0.181323 -0.9949 -2.38648 0.396685
15 -1.25868 -2.45672 -0.060647 -0.951708 -2.34598 0.442569
16 -1.19606 -2.41058 0.018451 -1.03196 -2.39144 0.327523
17 -1.2378 -2.48142 0.005811 -1.27865 -2.62077 0.063476
18 -1.32982 -2.59519 -0.064456 -1.34952 -2.68477 -0.01427
19 -1.40801 -2.68913 -0.126894 -1.20973 -2.52485 0.105397
20 -1.38506 -2.67702 -0.093114 -1.07065 -2.37492 0.233616
21 -1.25061 -2.55661 0.05539 -0.838746 -2.1218 0.444306
22 -1.03935 -2.35119 0.272486 -0.583451 -1.86655 0.699647
23 -0.843055 -2.15281 0.466701 -0.364684 -1.6276 0.898233
24 -0.791639 -2.09555 0.512271 -0.295792 -1.54423 0.952649
Return to Figure 8

Figure 8: Responses of nondurable goods sector employment and output Panel C: Securities issuance

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0.121248 -0.040775 0.28327 0.413587 0.037258 0.789916
2 0.081525 -0.184758 0.347808 0.446288 -0.100956 0.993532
3 -0.052302 -0.399615 0.29501 0.185729 -0.485262 0.85672
4 -0.176866 -0.646593 0.292861 -0.003247 -0.830545 0.824051
5 -0.370412 -0.92598 0.185155 -0.038106 -0.962284 0.886072
6 -0.298685 -0.948818 0.351449 0.350792 -0.681582 1.38317
7 -0.180994 -0.884086 0.522098 0.625399 -0.469024 1.71982
8 -0.273639 -1.04067 0.493398 0.667666 -0.50648 1.84181
9 -0.291546 -1.13664 0.553549 0.697596 -0.527911 1.9231
10 -0.101367 -1.04473 0.842 0.930876 -0.400883 2.26264
11 -0.076065 -1.10516 0.953029 0.931462 -0.526279 2.3892
12 -0.316819 -1.42778 0.794138 0.672245 -0.863167 2.20766
13 -0.233949 -1.39856 0.930659 0.577427 -0.956185 2.11104
14 -0.483869 -1.68011 0.712374 0.34559 -1.14995 1.84113
15 -0.4161 -1.62446 0.792257 0.417992 -1.06938 1.90536
16 -0.522533 -1.73021 0.685146 0.322496 -1.15194 1.79693
17 -0.708201 -1.93404 0.517644 0.212597 -1.24847 1.67366
18 -0.689376 -1.94662 0.567873 0.268177 -1.21421 1.75056
19 -0.583374 -1.84054 0.673794 0.331193 -1.14431 1.80669
20 -0.750041 -2.04982 0.549737 0.200677 -1.29623 1.69758
21 -0.816799 -2.13178 0.498185 0.123533 -1.37606 1.62312
22 -0.864756 -2.19775 0.468236 0.004765 -1.49179 1.50132
23 -0.941924 -2.26742 0.383576 -0.081607 -1.56207 1.39886
24 -0.975744 -2.29976 0.348274 -0.115835 -1.582 1.35033
Return to Figure 8

Figure 9: Responses of total hours and output to stock market volatility and stock prices Panel A: Stock market volatility

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 -0.222901 -0.571453 0.125651 -0.351355 -0.679978 -0.022732
2 -0.286774 -0.910518 0.336969 -0.841857 -1.48618 -0.197532
3 -0.681679 -1.50923 0.14587 -1.32607 -2.25954 -0.392604
4 -0.923741 -1.95162 0.104134 -1.35515 -2.54863 -0.161673
5 -0.930984 -2.11838 0.256412 -1.29991 -2.69237 0.092547
6 -1.28054 -2.60155 0.040475 -1.55959 -3.11392 -0.005251
7 -1.4787 -2.92284 -0.034563 -1.98986 -3.68765 -0.292072
8 -1.58346 -3.0948 -0.07212 -2.36299 -4.16504 -0.560947
9 -2.00413 -3.64581 -0.362449 -2.61056 -4.54305 -0.678076
10 -1.883 -3.65747 -0.108541 -2.47734 -4.55505 -0.399636
11 -1.68189 -3.59439 0.230614 -2.30298 -4.52233 -0.083619
12 -1.77825 -3.80844 0.251941 -2.54714 -4.90854 -0.185735
13 -2.06511 -4.1837 0.053473 -2.69326 -5.15283 -0.233691
14 -2.11873 -4.29671 0.059254 -2.7461 -5.23531 -0.256885
15 -2.05803 -4.26054 0.144483 -2.4412 -4.92759 0.045183
16 -1.94287 -4.13797 0.252238 -2.1691 -4.62929 0.291094
17 -1.67647 -3.87755 0.52462 -1.91651 -4.36143 0.528414
18 -1.52372 -3.72601 0.678567 -1.77392 -4.22256 0.674716
19 -1.4621 -3.71646 0.792258 -1.7729 -4.26713 0.721338
20 -1.54129 -3.8481 0.76553 -1.90201 -4.44804 0.644011
21 -1.83467 -4.18381 0.514474 -2.05144 -4.61784 0.514963
22 -1.85932 -4.23854 0.519908 -2.13295 -4.70032 0.434431
23 -1.86662 -4.26254 0.529303 -2.2042 -4.75662 0.348219
24 -1.7418 -4.12617 0.642569 -2.14668 -4.69176 0.398402
Return to Figure 9

Figure 9: Responses of total hours and output to stock market volatility and stock prices Panel B: Stock prices

Months Total hours Estimate Total hours Lower Total hours Upper Output Estimate Output Lower Output Upper
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0.687598 0.414681 0.960515 0.579351 0.288944 0.869757
2 0.819456 0.307839 1.33107 0.690564 0.103895 1.27723
3 0.530842 -0.233667 1.29535 0.628266 -0.280741 1.53727
4 0.183726 -0.782729 1.15018 0.664606 -0.527827 1.85704
5 0.214487 -0.996135 1.42511 0.636336 -0.834791 2.10746
6 0.57752 -0.819105 1.97415 1.00295 -0.668539 2.67443
7 0.600308 -0.919781 2.1204 1.15573 -0.637515 2.94897
8 1.07629 -0.537208 2.6898 1.73233 -0.191484 3.65613
9 1.73552 -0.012842 3.48388 2.47677 0.414982 4.53857
10 2.14911 0.281768 4.01644 3.03404 0.843983 5.2241
11 2.61778 0.601533 4.63403 3.59825 1.21325 5.98326
12 1.96474 -0.241583 4.17105 3.0383 0.445716 5.63088
13 1.66702 -0.722714 4.05676 2.44024 -0.340134 5.22061
14 1.38847 -1.1643 3.94124 2.02502 -0.921073 4.97112
15 1.45062 -1.20276 4.10399 2.00613 -1.02374 5.03599
16 1.4775 -1.27084 4.22583 2.23161 -0.863913 5.32714
17 1.67379 -1.10071 4.4483 2.51908 -0.605288 5.64344
18 1.92313 -0.849321 4.69558 2.72469 -0.400501 5.84988
19 2.05807 -0.745109 4.86124 2.78686 -0.357417 5.93113
20 1.78595 -1.03523 4.60712 2.39092 -0.772044 5.55388
21 1.51328 -1.34905 4.37562 1.99795 -1.17587 5.17178
22 1.10235 -1.80335 4.00806 1.56419 -1.60821 4.73659
23 0.847519 -2.04507 3.74011 1.23644 -1.90026 4.37314
24 0.724237 -2.16804 3.61651 1.24113 -1.84382 4.32607
Return to Figure 9
Home | Working Papers | Accessibility | Contact us
Last update: April 22, 2010