FRB: Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data

Figure 1: Estimates of GDP Gap and Employment Slack (Quaterly)

Quarter	GDP: HEB	GDP: ACT	GDP: GAP	Employment: RU	Employment: NAIRU	Employment: SLACK
50q1	279.9	275.2	1.68	6.40	5.26	1.14
50q2	284.3	284.5	-0.08	5.60	5.26	0.34
50q3	293.5	301.9	-2.87	4.60	5.27	-0.67
50q4	302.2	313.3	-3.68	4.20	5.28	-1.08
51q1	316.6	329.0	-3.91	3.50	5.29	-1.79
51q2	322.6	336.6	-4.35	3.10	5.31	-2.21
51q3	327.9	343.5	-4.76	3.20	5.32	-2.12
51q4	336.6	347.9	-3.37	3.40	5.34	-1.94
52q1	341.3	351.2	-2.90	3.10	5.36	-2.26
52q2	347.1	352.1	-1.45	3.00	5.37	-2.37
52q3	354.0	358.5	-1.27	3.20	5.38	-2.18
52q4	359.2	371.4	-3.39	2.80	5.38	-2.58
53q1	363.3	378.4	-4.15	2.70	5.37	-2.67
53q2	367.7	382.0	-3.88	2.60	5.37	-2.77
53q3	372.2	381.1	-2.39	2.70	5.37	-2.67
53q4	376.4	375.9	0.14	3.70	5.37	-1.67
54q1	380.9	375.3	1.48	5.30	5.37	-0.07
54q2	384.2	376.0	2.14	5.80	5.37	0.43
54q3	386.5	380.8	1.48	6.00	5.37	0.63
54q4	389.5	389.4	0.02	5.30	5.37	-0.07
55q1	393.6	402.6	-2.28	4.70	5.37	-0.67
55q2	398.5	410.9	-3.10	4.40	5.38	-0.98
55q3	404.2	419.5	-3.77	4.10	5.38	-1.28
55q4	409.8	426.0	-3.95	4.20	5.39	-1.19
56q1	416.9	428.3	-2.73	4.00	5.40	-1.40
56q2	424.1	434.2	-2.37	4.20	5.41	-1.21
56q3	432.3	439.2	-1.59	4.10	5.41	-1.31
56q4	438.4	448.1	-2.21	4.10	5.41	-1.31
57q1	447.0	457.2	-2.28	3.90	5.40	-1.50
57q2	453.9	459.2	-1.16	4.10	5.40	-1.30
57q3	461.3	466.4	-1.10	4.20	5.40	-1.20
57q4	467.7	461.5	1.32	4.90	5.40	-0.50
58q1	475.6	453.9	4.56	6.30	5.40	0.90
58q2	481.6	458.0	4.89	7.40	5.40	2.00
58q3	486.7	471.7	3.08	7.30	5.40	1.90
58q4	491.1	485.0	1.25	6.40	5.40	1.00
59q1	496.9	495.5	0.29	5.80	5.41	0.39
59q2	502.0	508.5	-1.29	5.10	5.42	-0.32
59q3	507.8	509.3	-0.30	5.30	5.43	-0.13
59q4	514.4	513.2	0.23	5.60	5.45	0.15
60q1	520.1	527.0	-1.32	5.10	5.48	-0.38
60q2	527.3	526.2	0.21	5.20	5.49	-0.29
60q3	535.0	529.0	1.13	5.50	5.50	0.00
60q4	542.7	523.7	3.51	6.30	5.51	0.79
61q1	548.9	528.0	3.81	6.80	5.51	1.29
61q2	555.6	539.0	2.98	7.00	5.51	1.49
61q3	562.7	549.5	2.35	6.80	5.51	1.29
61q4	569.9	562.6	1.28	6.20	5.51	0.69
62q1	578.9	576.1	0.49	5.60	5.50	0.10
62q2	586.3	583.2	0.52	5.50	5.50	0.00
62q3	593.8	590.0	0.64	5.60	5.51	0.09
62q4	602.0	593.3	1.44	5.50	5.51	-0.01
63q1	609.9	602.5	1.22	5.80	5.53	0.27
63q2	616.8	611.2	0.91	5.70	5.54	0.16
63q3	624.3	623.9	0.06	5.50	5.55	-0.05
63q4	634.6	633.5	0.18	5.60	5.56	0.04
64q1	643.4	649.6	-0.97	5.50	5.57	-0.07
64q2	652.3	658.9	-1.01	5.20	5.59	-0.39
64q3	662.3	670.5	-1.23	5.00	5.60	-0.60
64q4	672.3	675.6	-0.49	5.00	5.62	-0.62
65q1	682.3	695.7	-1.96	4.90	5.64	-0.74
65q2	692.7	708.2	-2.23	4.70	5.66	-0.96
65q3	703.3	725.2	-3.11	4.40	5.69	-1.29
65q4	715.4	747.5	-4.48	4.10	5.71	-1.61
66q1	727.9	770.8	-5.89	3.90	5.74	-1.84
66q2	743.2	779.9	-4.94	3.80	5.76	-1.96
66q3	758.9	793.2	-4.51	3.80	5.77	-1.97
66q4	774.5	806.9	-4.19	3.70	5.78	-2.08
67q1	787.4	817.8	-3.86	3.80	5.78	-1.98
67q2	801.4	822.3	-2.61	3.80	5.78	-1.98
67q3	817.9	837.0	-2.34	3.80	5.78	-1.98
67q4	836.0	852.7	-2.00	3.90	5.78	-1.88
68q1	854.3	879.8	-2.98	3.70	5.78	-2.08
68q2	873.1	904.1	-3.55	3.60	5.79	-2.19
68q3	890.7	919.3	-3.21	3.50	5.79	-2.29
68q4	912.4	936.2	-2.61	3.40	5.81	-2.41
69q1	931.0	960.9	-3.21	3.40	5.82	-2.42
69q2	952.8	976.1	-2.45	3.40	5.84	-2.44
69q3	975.9	996.3	-2.09	3.60	5.85	-2.25
69q4	997.4	1004.5	-0.71	3.60	5.86	-2.26
70q1	1020.2	1017.1	0.30	4.20	5.88	-1.68
70q2	1043.6	1033.1	1.01	4.80	5.89	-1.09
70q3	1060.4	1050.5	0.93	5.20	5.90	-0.70
70q4	1082.4	1052.7	2.75	5.80	5.91	-0.11
71q1	1107.1	1098.1	0.82	5.90	5.92	-0.02
71q2	1130.3	1118.8	1.02	5.90	5.93	-0.03
71q3	1150.1	1139.1	0.96	6.00	5.95	0.05
71q4	1167.8	1151.4	1.41	5.90	5.97	-0.07
72q1	1195.7	1190.1	0.46	5.80	6.00	-0.20
72q2	1211.6	1225.6	-1.15	5.70	6.02	-0.32
72q3	1232.0	1249.3	-1.40	5.60	6.05	-0.45
72q4	1256.2	1286.6	-2.42	5.40	6.07	-0.67
73q1	1282.9	1335.1	-4.07	4.90	6.10	-1.20
73q2	1315.2	1371.5	-4.28	4.90	6.12	-1.22
73q3	1352.0	1390.7	-2.86	4.80	6.14	-1.34
73q4	1387.4	1431.8	-3.20	4.80	6.15	-1.35
74q1	1429.1	1446.5	-1.22	5.10	6.16	-1.06
74q2	1474.8	1484.8	-0.68	5.20	6.17	-0.97
74q3	1534.9	1513.7	1.38	5.60	6.17	-0.57
74q4	1596.9	1552.8	2.76	6.60	6.17	0.43
75q1	1648.3	1569.4	4.78	8.30	6.17	2.13
75q2	1686.6	1605.0	4.84	8.90	6.17	2.73
75q3	1732.2	1662.5	4.03	8.50	6.17	2.33
75q4	1776.9	1713.9	3.54	8.30	6.18	2.12
76q1	1810.8	1771.9	2.15	7.70	6.19	1.51
76q2	1844.0	1804.2	2.16	7.60	6.20	1.40
76q3	1883.1	1837.7	2.41	7.70	6.20	1.50
76q4	1930.3	1884.5	2.37	7.80	6.21	1.59
77q1	1978.5	1938.5	2.02	7.50	6.22	1.28
77q2	2026.3	2005.2	1.04	7.10	6.23	0.87
77q3	2071.3	2066.0	0.26	6.90	6.24	0.66
77q4	2124.3	2110.8	0.63	6.70	6.25	0.45
78q1	2178.1	2149.1	1.33	6.30	6.26	0.04
78q2	2240.3	2274.7	-1.54	6.00	6.27	-0.27
78q3	2300.0	2335.2	-1.53	6.00	6.27	-0.27
78q4	2368.3	2416.0	-2.02	5.90	6.27	-0.37
79q1	2433.5	2463.3	-1.22	5.90	6.26	-0.36
79q2	2514.0	2526.4	-0.49	5.70	6.26	-0.56
79q3	2586.5	2599.7	-0.51	5.90	6.25	-0.35
79q4	2656.8	2659.4	-0.10	6.00	6.24	-0.24
80q1	2732.2	2724.1	0.30	6.30	6.23	0.07
80q2	2808.3	2728.0	2.86	7.30	6.22	1.08
80q3	2886.6	2785.2	3.51	7.70	6.21	1.49
80q4	2982.4	2915.3	2.25	7.40	6.20	1.20
81q1	3076.2	3051.4	0.81	7.40	6.19	1.21
81q2	3149.0	3084.3	2.06	7.40	6.17	1.23
81q3	3226.9	3177.0	1.55	7.40	6.16	1.24
81q4	3305.4	3194.7	3.35	8.20	6.15	2.05
82q1	3377.0	3184.9	5.69	8.80	6.13	2.67
82q2	3445.1	3241.0	5.93	9.40	6.12	3.28
82q3	3520.1	3274.4	6.98	9.90	6.11	3.79
82q4	3585.0	3312.5	7.60	10.70	6.10	4.60
83q1	3642.3	3381.0	7.17	10.40	6.09	4.31
83q2	3695.2	3482.2	5.76	10.10	6.08	4.02
83q3	3759.6	3587.1	4.59	9.40	6.07	3.33
83q4	3814.2	3688.1	3.31	8.50	6.06	2.44
84q1	3890.6	3807.4	2.14	7.90	6.05	1.85
84q2	3956.4	3906.3	1.27	7.40	6.05	1.35
84q3	4020.8	3976.0	1.12	7.40	6.04	1.36
84q4	4078.0	4034.0	1.08	7.30	6.03	1.27
85q1	4159.5	4117.2	1.02	7.20	6.03	1.17
85q2	4216.5	4175.7	0.97	7.30	6.02	1.28
85q3	4272.6	4258.3	0.33	7.20	6.02	1.18
85q4	4335.2	4318.7	0.38	7.00	6.01	0.99
86q1	4393.2	4382.4	0.25	7.00	6.00	1.00
86q2	4451.0	4423.3	0.62	7.20	6.00	1.20
86q3	4514.9	4491.3	0.52	7.00	5.99	1.01
86q4	4583.4	4543.3	0.88	6.80	5.98	0.82
87q1	4655.5	4611.1	0.95	6.60	5.98	0.62
87q2	4717.9	4686.7	0.66	6.30	5.97	0.33
87q3	4791.7	4764.5	0.57	6.00	5.97	0.03
87q4	4863.1	4883.1	-0.41	5.80	5.96	-0.16
88q1	4939.8	4948.6	-0.18	5.70	5.94	-0.24
88q2	5025.5	5059.3	-0.67	5.50	5.94	-0.44
88q3	5123.9	5142.8	-0.37	5.50	5.93	-0.43
88q4	5204.6	5251.0	-0.89	5.30	5.92	-0.62
89q1	5299.0	5360.3	-1.16	5.20	5.91	-0.71
89q2	5392.6	5453.6	-1.13	5.20	5.91	-0.71
89q3	5470.5	5532.9	-1.14	5.20	5.90	-0.70
89q4	5546.6	5581.7	-0.63	5.40	5.89	-0.49
90q1	5656.0	5708.1	-0.92	5.30	5.88	-0.58
90q2	5764.1	5797.4	-0.58	5.30	5.87	-0.57
90q3	5859.7	5850.6	0.15	5.70	5.86	-0.16
90q4	5949.7	5846.0	1.74	6.10	5.84	0.26
91q1	6054.6	5880.2	2.88	6.60	5.82	0.78
91q2	6137.6	5962.0	2.86	6.80	5.79	1.01
91q3	6224.3	6033.7	3.06	6.90	5.77	1.13
91q4	6299.7	6092.5	3.29	7.10	5.74	1.36
92q1	6375.6	6190.7	2.90	7.40	5.71	1.69
92q2	6454.3	6295.2	2.47	7.60	5.68	1.92
92q3	6524.4	6389.7	2.06	7.60	5.64	1.96
92q4	6603.7	6493.6	1.67	7.40	5.61	1.79
93q1	6687.9	6544.5	2.14	7.10	5.58	1.52
93q2	6769.2	6622.7	2.16	7.10	5.54	1.56
93q3	6847.1	6688.3	2.32	6.80	5.51	1.29
93q4	6930.0	6813.8	1.68	6.60	5.48	1.12
94q1	7016.6	6916.3	1.43	6.60	5.44	1.16
94q2	7100.1	7044.3	0.79	6.20	5.41	0.79
94q3	7190.7	7131.8	0.82	6.00	5.38	0.62
94q4	7280.6	7248.2	0.44	5.60	5.35	0.25
95q1	7377.2	7307.7	0.94	5.50	5.33	0.17
95q2	7464.4	7355.8	1.45	5.70	5.30	0.40
95q3	7551.6	7452.5	1.31	5.70	5.27	0.43
95q4	7647.1	7542.5	1.37	5.60	5.25	0.35
96q1	7746.5	7638.2	1.40	5.50	5.23	0.27
96q2	7834.3	7800.0	0.44	5.50	5.20	0.30
96q3	7933.6	7892.7	0.52	5.30	5.18	0.12
96q4	8031.8	8023.0	0.11	5.30	5.16	0.14
97q1	8136.0	8137.0	-0.01	5.20	5.14	0.06
97q2	8237.6	8276.8	-0.48	5.00	5.13	-0.13
97q3	8327.4	8409.9	-0.99	4.90	5.11	-0.21
97q4	8427.7	8505.7	-0.93	4.70	5.10	-0.40
98q1	8510.7	8600.6	-1.06	4.60	5.08	-0.48
98q2	8603.9	8698.6	-1.10	4.40	5.07	-0.67
98q3	8709.9	8847.2	-1.58	4.50	5.06	-0.56
98q4	8807.9	9027.5	-2.49	4.40	5.05	-0.65
99q1	8921.7	9148.6	-2.54	4.30	5.04	-0.74
99q2	9036.5	9252.6	-2.39	4.30	5.03	-0.73
99q3	9147.0	9405.1	-2.82	4.20	5.02	-0.82
99q4	9265.2	9607.7	-3.70	4.10	5.01	-0.91
00q1	9418.7	9709.5	-3.09	4.00	5.01	-1.01
00q2	9552.9	9949.1	-4.15	3.90	5.01	-1.11
00q3	9698.0	10017.5	-3.29	4.00	5.00	-1.00
00q4	9837.6	10129.8	-2.97	3.90	5.00	-1.10
01q1	9998.1	10165.1	-1.67	4.20	5.00	-0.80
01q2	10160.3	10301.3	-1.39	4.40	5.00	-0.60
01q3	10284.8	10305.2	-0.20	4.80	5.00	-0.20
01q4	10404.8	10373.1	0.30	5.50	5.00	0.50
02q1	10531.1	10498.7	0.31	5.70	5.00	0.70
02q2	10666.0	10601.9	0.60	5.80	5.00	0.80
02q3	10800.4	10701.7	0.91	5.70	5.00	0.70
02q4	10949.7	10766.9	1.67	5.90	5.00	0.90
03q1	11113.4	10888.4	2.02	5.90	5.00	0.90
03q2	11228.4	11008.1	1.96	6.10	5.00	1.10
03q3	11370.9	11255.7	1.01	6.10	5.00	1.10
03q4	11509.8	11416.5	0.81	5.80	5.00	0.80
04q1	11683.7	11597.2	0.74	5.70	5.00	0.70
04q2	11857.6	11778.4	0.67	5.60	5.00	0.60
04q3	12017.6	11950.6	0.56	5.40	5.00	0.40
04q4	12179.5	12144.9	0.28	5.40	5.00	0.40
05q1	12366.8	12379.5	-0.10	5.30	5.00	0.30
05q2	12525.4	12516.8	0.07	5.10	5.00	0.10
05q3	12730.5	12741.6	-0.09	5.00	5.00	0.00
05q4	12914.9	12915.6	-0.01	4.90	5.00	-0.10
06q1	13091.1	13183.5	-0.71	4.70	5.00	-0.30
06q2	13289.7	13347.8	-0.44	4.70	5.00	-0.30
06q3	13474.8	13452.9	0.16	4.60	5.00	-0.40
06q4	13622.2	13611.5	0.08	4.40	5.00	-0.60
07q1	13852.7	13795.6	0.41	4.50	5.00	-0.50
07q2	14033.7	13997.2	0.26	4.50	5.00	-0.50
07q3	14180.9	14179.9	0.01	4.70	5.00	-0.30
07q4	14352.8	14337.9	0.10	4.80	5.00	-0.20
08q1	14510.5	14373.9	0.94	4.90	5.00	-0.10
08q2	14666.3	14497.8	1.15	5.40	5.00	0.40
08q3	14901.0	14546.7	2.38	6.10	5.00	1.10
08q4	14991.1	14347.3	4.29	6.90	5.00	1.90
09q1	15144.0	14178.0	6.38	8.10	5.00	3.10
09q2	15221.1	14151.2	7.03	9.30	5.00	4.30
09q3	15314.4	14242.1	7.00	9.60	5.00	4.60
09q4	15425.0	14461.7	6.25	10.10	5.00	5.10

Return to Figure 1

Figure 1: Estimates of GDP Gap and Employment Slack (Calendar Years)

Calendar Year	GDP: HEB	GDP: ACT	GDP: GAP	Employment: RU	Employment: NAIRU	Employment: SLACK
1950	290.0	293.7	-1.3	5.2	5.3	-0.07
1951	325.9	339.3	-4.1	3.3	5.3	-2.02
1952	350.4	358.3	-2.3	3.0	5.4	-2.35
1953	369.9	379.3	-2.5	2.9	5.4	-2.45
1954	385.3	380.4	1.3	5.6	5.4	0.23
1955	401.5	414.7	-3.3	4.4	5.4	-1.03
1956	427.9	437.4	-2.2	4.1	5.4	-1.31
1957	457.5	461.1	-0.8	4.3	5.4	-1.13
1958	483.8	467.2	3.4	6.9	5.4	1.45
1959	505.3	506.6	-0.3	5.5	5.4	0.02
1960	531.3	526.4	0.9	5.5	5.5	0.03
1961	559.3	544.8	2.6	6.7	5.5	1.19
1962	590.3	585.7	0.8	5.6	5.5	0.05
1963	621.4	617.8	0.6	5.7	5.5	0.11
1964	657.6	663.6	-0.9	5.2	5.6	-0.42
1965	698.4	719.1	-3.0	4.5	5.7	-1.15
1966	751.1	787.7	-4.9	3.8	5.8	-1.96
1967	810.7	832.4	-2.7	3.8	5.8	-1.96
1968	882.6	909.8	-3.1	3.6	5.8	-2.24
1969	964.3	984.4	-2.1	3.5	5.8	-2.34
1970	1051.7	1038.3	1.3	5.0	5.9	-0.90
1971	1138.8	1126.8	1.1	5.9	5.9	-0.02
1972	1223.9	1237.9	-1.1	5.6	6.0	-0.41
1973	1334.4	1382.3	-3.6	4.9	6.1	-1.28
1974	1508.9	1499.4	0.6	5.6	6.2	-0.54
1975	1711.0	1637.7	4.3	8.5	6.2	2.33
1976	1867.1	1824.6	2.3	7.7	6.2	1.50
1977	2050.1	2030.1	1.0	7.1	6.2	0.82
1978	2271.7	2293.8	-1.0	6.1	6.3	-0.22
1979	2547.7	2562.2	-0.6	5.9	6.3	-0.38
1980	2852.4	2788.1	2.3	7.2	6.2	0.96
1981	3189.4	3126.8	2.0	7.6	6.2	1.43
1982	3481.8	3253.2	6.6	9.7	6.1	3.59
1983	3727.8	3534.6	5.2	9.6	6.1	3.53
1984	3986.5	3930.9	1.4	7.5	6.0	1.46
1985	4246.0	4217.5	0.7	7.2	6.0	1.16
1986	4485.6	4460.1	0.6	7.0	6.0	1.01
1987	4757.1	4736.4	0.4	6.2	6.0	0.21
1988	5073.5	5100.4	-0.5	5.5	5.9	-0.43
1989	5427.2	5482.2	-1.0	5.3	5.9	-0.65
1990	5807.4	5800.5	0.1	5.6	5.9	-0.26
1991	6179.1	5992.1	3.0	6.9	5.8	1.07
1992	6489.5	6342.3	2.3	7.5	5.7	1.84
1993	6808.6	6667.3	2.1	6.9	5.5	1.37
1994	7147.0	7085.2	0.9	6.1	5.4	0.71
1995	7510.1	7414.7	1.3	5.6	5.3	0.34
1996	7886.6	7838.5	0.6	5.4	5.2	0.21
1997	8282.2	8332.4	-0.6	5.0	5.1	-0.17
1998	8658.1	8793.5	-1.6	4.5	5.1	-0.59
1999	9092.6	9353.5	-2.9	4.2	5.0	-0.80
2000	9626.8	9951.5	-3.4	4.0	5.0	-1.06
2001	10212.0	10286.2	-0.7	4.7	5.0	-0.27
2002	10736.8	10642.3	0.9	5.8	5.0	0.78
2003	11305.6	11142.1	1.4	6.0	5.0	0.98
2004	11934.6	11867.8	0.6	5.5	5.0	0.53
2005	12634.4	12638.4	-0.0	5.1	5.0	0.07
2006	13369.5	13398.9	-0.2	4.6	5.0	-0.40
2007	14105.0	14077.6	0.2	4.6	5.0	-0.38
2008	14767.2	14441.4	2.2	5.8	5.0	0.82
2009	15276.1	14258.2	6.7	9.3	5.0	4.28

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Estimates of GDP, Wage, and Profit Gaps (Quaterly)

Quarter	GDP, HEB	GDP, ACT	GDP, GAP	Wages, HEB	Wages, ACT	Wages, GAP	Profits, HEB	Profits, ACT	Profits, GAP
50q1	279.9	275.2	1.68	141.0	137.1	2.76	30.3	29.8	1.59
50q2	284.3	284.5	-0.08	145.1	142.9	1.52	31.9	33.4	-4.89
50q3	293.5	301.9	-2.87	150.2	150.8	-0.37	33.9	38.1	-12.20
50q4	302.2	313.3	-3.68	154.8	158.3	-2.25	36.4	41.3	-13.44
51q1	316.6	329.0	-3.91	160.1	165.5	-3.40	36.4	40.2	-10.53
51q2	322.6	336.6	-4.35	163.8	170.8	-4.29	36.5	40.2	-10.02
51q3	327.9	343.5	-4.76	166.1	173.8	-4.65	37.2	40.7	-9.58
51q4	336.6	347.9	-3.37	169.3	176.2	-4.11	40.3	42.1	-4.34
52q1	341.3	351.2	-2.90	174.8	181.2	-3.63	38.2	39.5	-3.54
52q2	347.1	352.1	-1.45	177.7	182.4	-2.65	37.6	37.4	0.53
52q3	354.0	358.5	-1.27	181.7	185.7	-2.21	37.8	37.1	1.83
52q4	359.2	371.4	-3.39	187.9	193.3	-2.86	38.4	41.3	-7.49
53q1	363.3	378.4	-4.15	190.3	196.9	-3.47	38.2	42.0	-9.90
53q2	367.7	382.0	-3.88	193.0	200.1	-3.67	37.8	41.2	-8.99
53q3	372.2	381.1	-2.39	193.8	200.3	-3.35	38.8	40.2	-3.56
53q4	376.4	375.9	0.14	195.2	198.7	-1.80	35.5	33.1	6.78
54q1	380.9	375.3	1.48	196.0	196.4	-0.23	39.1	35.5	9.43
54q2	384.2	376.0	2.14	198.0	196.0	1.05	40.6	36.8	9.43
54q3	386.5	380.8	1.48	199.0	196.3	1.35	41.0	38.7	5.49
54q4	389.5	389.4	0.02	201.9	200.4	0.78	41.8	42.4	-1.29
55q1	393.6	402.6	-2.28	202.9	204.2	-0.65	43.5	47.5	-9.12
55q2	398.5	410.9	-3.10	206.7	210.3	-1.77	43.8	48.7	-11.33
55q3	404.2	419.5	-3.77	208.6	214.7	-2.90	44.1	49.4	-11.90
55q4	409.8	426.0	-3.95	211.2	219.5	-3.90	46.1	50.4	-9.51
56q1	416.9	428.3	-2.73	215.5	223.3	-3.60	46.9	48.4	-3.20
56q2	424.1	434.2	-2.37	220.8	227.5	-3.03	46.9	48.2	-2.71
56q3	432.3	439.2	-1.59	224.3	230.0	-2.54	47.6	47.4	0.40
56q4	438.4	448.1	-2.21	230.1	235.4	-2.29	46.7	48.1	-2.96
57q1	447.0	457.2	-2.28	232.5	238.3	-2.50	48.0	49.7	-3.50
57q2	453.9	459.2	-1.16	235.3	239.6	-1.83	48.8	48.5	0.45
57q3	461.3	466.4	-1.10	238.2	241.8	-1.52	47.5	48.0	-1.18
57q4	467.7	461.5	1.32	240.4	240.1	0.11	47.4	44.3	6.48
58q1	475.6	453.9	4.56	243.1	237.4	2.36	46.5	38.4	17.37
58q2	481.6	458.0	4.89	246.0	236.9	3.71	46.0	39.2	14.85
58q3	486.7	471.7	3.08	251.0	242.6	3.36	46.9	43.3	7.84
58q4	491.1	485.0	1.25	254.9	248.4	2.55	49.4	49.0	0.89
59q1	496.9	495.5	0.29	258.7	254.0	1.79	50.1	52.6	-5.01
59q2	502.0	508.5	-1.29	261.4	260.6	0.34	52.5	57.6	-9.65
59q3	507.8	509.3	-0.30	260.8	260.9	-0.02	50.5	52.4	-3.62
59q4	514.4	513.2	0.23	263.9	263.9	0.01	52.7	52.8	-0.19
60q1	520.1	527.0	-1.32	268.2	270.8	-0.97	54.6	57.0	-4.49
60q2	527.3	526.2	0.21	272.6	273.4	-0.30	54.6	53.2	2.64
60q3	535.0	529.0	1.13	275.4	274.0	0.53	54.7	52.3	4.43
60q4	542.7	523.7	3.51	279.0	273.3	2.04	56.1	50.0	10.88
61q1	548.9	528.0	3.81	282.2	273.8	2.99	55.5	48.9	11.89
61q2	555.6	539.0	2.98	286.5	277.6	3.11	57.0	53.2	6.69
61q3	562.7	549.5	2.35	291.0	282.3	3.01	57.8	55.4	4.07
61q4	569.9	562.6	1.28	295.3	288.4	2.32	58.8	59.3	-0.85
62q1	578.9	576.1	0.49	297.7	293.3	1.47	59.8	61.7	-3.14
62q2	586.3	583.2	0.52	302.1	298.7	1.10	59.9	61.0	-1.82
62q3	593.8	590.0	0.64	303.8	301.2	0.86	61.9	62.2	-0.53
62q4	602.0	593.3	1.44	307.8	304.3	1.14	66.5	64.5	2.96
63q1	609.9	602.5	1.22	311.7	308.0	1.21	66.3	64.7	2.35
63q2	616.8	611.2	0.91	315.7	312.4	1.05	69.1	68.1	1.46
63q3	624.3	623.9	0.06	318.9	316.8	0.66	68.6	69.5	-1.27
63q4	634.6	633.5	0.18	323.5	322.3	0.38	70.6	71.0	-0.62
64q1	643.4	649.6	-0.97	327.4	328.2	-0.25	72.2	75.2	-4.21
64q2	652.3	658.9	-1.01	332.6	334.8	-0.66	72.4	75.2	-3.80
64q3	662.3	670.5	-1.23	338.4	341.4	-0.90	73.6	76.3	-3.64
64q4	672.3	675.6	-0.49	343.8	346.7	-0.83	74.7	75.4	-1.00
65q1	682.3	695.7	-1.96	347.6	352.8	-1.51	79.4	83.3	-4.94
65q2	692.7	708.2	-2.23	352.0	358.9	-1.95	81.1	85.4	-5.31
65q3	703.3	725.2	-3.11	357.3	366.2	-2.49	80.5	86.7	-7.72
65q4	715.4	747.5	-4.48	363.8	377.1	-3.66	80.7	90.7	-12.41
66q1	727.9	770.8	-5.89	367.6	385.8	-4.93	81.6	93.9	-15.10
66q2	743.2	779.9	-4.94	376.4	395.9	-5.18	84.1	92.8	-10.41
66q3	758.9	793.2	-4.51	385.8	406.1	-5.26	84.5	91.1	-7.81
66q4	774.5	806.9	-4.19	393.2	413.5	-5.17	87.3	92.4	-5.88
67q1	787.4	817.8	-3.86	400.0	418.8	-4.72	86.1	89.6	-4.10
67q2	801.4	822.3	-2.61	408.1	423.6	-3.79	87.5	88.5	-1.07
67q3	817.9	837.0	-2.34	418.4	432.0	-3.26	88.7	89.7	-1.15
67q4	836.0	852.7	-2.00	429.6	441.6	-2.79	92.1	92.9	-0.89
68q1	854.3	879.8	-2.98	441.3	454.2	-2.93	89.4	93.9	-5.01
68q2	873.1	904.1	-3.55	451.1	465.9	-3.28	90.5	97.7	-7.95
68q3	890.7	919.3	-3.21	462.8	478.3	-3.35	92.2	97.9	-6.24
68q4	912.4	936.2	-2.61	474.3	489.4	-3.20	95.4	99.4	-4.25
69q1	931.0	960.9	-3.21	482.4	499.1	-3.46	93.8	99.4	-5.95
69q2	952.8	976.1	-2.45	496.1	511.4	-3.07	93.9	96.4	-2.60
69q3	975.9	996.3	-2.09	512.8	526.4	-2.65	91.8	93.6	-1.93
69q4	997.4	1004.5	-0.71	526.8	536.5	-1.83	90.8	88.5	2.48
70q1	1020.2	1017.1	0.30	540.7	545.1	-0.82	86.1	80.6	6.38
70q2	1043.6	1033.1	1.01	549.6	549.1	0.09	90.6	84.4	6.79
70q3	1060.4	1050.5	0.93	559.0	555.7	0.59	89.3	84.6	5.28
70q4	1082.4	1052.7	2.75	566.7	556.4	1.83	90.1	80.4	10.75
71q1	1107.1	1098.1	0.82	578.2	570.2	1.39	93.3	92.8	0.62
71q2	1130.3	1118.8	1.02	587.8	580.3	1.28	95.7	94.6	1.14
71q3	1150.1	1139.1	0.96	596.8	588.8	1.34	98.3	96.8	1.55
71q4	1167.8	1151.4	1.41	607.1	599.0	1.32	101.8	100.2	1.56
72q1	1195.7	1190.1	0.46	623.8	618.0	0.94	105.5	106.2	-0.68
72q2	1211.6	1225.6	-1.15	630.0	630.5	-0.08	100.6	107.9	-7.20
72q3	1232.0	1249.3	-1.40	638.0	642.4	-0.69	105.4	112.1	-6.36
72q4	1256.2	1286.6	-2.42	653.2	664.3	-1.69	109.0	119.5	-9.59
73q1	1282.9	1335.1	-4.07	663.5	683.4	-3.00	109.4	126.0	-15.16
73q2	1315.2	1371.5	-4.28	675.0	700.1	-3.71	108.4	122.8	-13.31
73q3	1352.0	1390.7	-2.86	691.8	716.2	-3.52	116.7	123.2	-5.54
73q4	1387.4	1431.8	-3.20	708.2	735.4	-3.84	119.1	126.0	-5.81
74q1	1429.1	1446.5	-1.22	728.4	748.2	-2.71	122.7	118.8	3.20
74q2	1474.8	1484.8	-0.68	751.7	765.3	-1.81	123.5	117.4	4.99
74q3	1534.9	1513.7	1.38	781.5	783.1	-0.21	126.9	114.1	10.12
74q4	1596.9	1552.8	2.76	804.0	792.5	1.43	128.2	110.3	14.00
75q1	1648.3	1569.4	4.78	818.1	791.8	3.22	136.2	111.8	17.94
75q2	1686.6	1605.0	4.84	835.7	800.3	4.24	146.4	124.5	14.97
75q3	1732.2	1662.5	4.03	858.9	821.2	4.39	158.6	144.8	8.70
75q4	1776.9	1713.9	3.54	884.1	845.7	4.35	161.8	152.2	5.96
76q1	1810.8	1771.9	2.15	903.0	871.1	3.53	163.5	164.9	-0.83
76q2	1844.0	1804.2	2.16	916.5	889.3	2.97	160.7	160.3	0.21
76q3	1883.1	1837.7	2.41	934.4	908.4	2.79	165.4	160.9	2.73
76q4	1930.3	1884.5	2.37	954.0	929.8	2.54	165.8	160.4	3.29
77q1	1978.5	1938.5	2.02	972.9	949.9	2.36	175.9	170.3	3.22
77q2	2026.3	2005.2	1.04	1000.1	980.8	1.92	189.9	191.5	-0.83
77q3	2071.3	2066.0	0.26	1020.7	1007.4	1.30	199.0	206.2	-3.60
77q4	2124.3	2110.8	0.63	1046.2	1038.1	0.78	199.6	199.5	0.08
78q1	2178.1	2149.1	1.33	1075.9	1064.1	1.10	197.5	192.5	2.54
78q2	2240.3	2274.7	-1.54	1103.7	1105.9	-0.20	203.2	220.2	-8.37
78q3	2300.0	2335.2	-1.53	1128.1	1136.6	-0.76	212.5	225.1	-5.93
78q4	2368.3	2416.0	-2.02	1159.3	1174.6	-1.32	220.0	235.9	-7.25
79q1	2433.5	2463.3	-1.22	1189.8	1208.2	-1.55	216.5	226.1	-4.44
79q2	2514.0	2526.4	-0.49	1220.2	1234.9	-1.21	231.0	228.0	1.29
79q3	2586.5	2599.7	-0.51	1255.3	1268.3	-1.03	228.2	226.2	0.87
79q4	2656.8	2659.4	-0.10	1294.7	1302.5	-0.61	227.2	221.1	2.69
80q1	2732.2	2724.1	0.30	1334.1	1335.0	-0.07	223.1	216.5	2.95
80q2	2808.3	2728.0	2.86	1370.1	1351.0	1.39	213.8	186.3	12.84
80q3	2886.6	2785.2	3.51	1411.5	1376.1	2.51	222.4	192.6	13.39
80q4	2982.4	2915.3	2.25	1468.1	1431.7	2.47	223.1	210.2	5.76
81q1	3076.2	3051.4	0.81	1499.6	1469.1	2.03	218.8	221.0	-1.00
81q2	3149.0	3084.3	2.06	1530.2	1496.2	2.22	225.5	217.2	3.69
81q3	3226.9	3177.0	1.55	1558.9	1528.5	1.95	235.8	235.4	0.19
81q4	3305.4	3194.7	3.35	1591.5	1551.5	2.51	243.8	219.6	9.95
82q1	3377.0	3184.9	5.69	1638.2	1567.3	4.32	247.9	197.3	20.44
82q2	3445.1	3241.0	5.93	1668.2	1580.9	5.23	255.4	211.6	17.15
82q3	3520.1	3274.4	6.98	1705.3	1596.0	6.41	264.9	210.1	20.68
82q4	3585.0	3312.5	7.60	1735.5	1605.8	7.47	257.2	203.9	20.71
83q1	3642.3	3381.0	7.17	1758.3	1623.1	7.69	264.7	225.2	14.93
83q2	3695.2	3482.2	5.76	1783.7	1656.4	7.14	279.7	256.1	8.41
83q3	3759.6	3587.1	4.59	1806.0	1692.2	6.30	282.6	273.3	3.29
83q4	3814.2	3688.1	3.31	1834.3	1740.2	5.13	280.2	284.7	-1.58
84q1	3890.6	3807.4	2.14	1856.0	1785.0	3.82	298.9	311.5	-4.23
84q2	3956.4	3906.3	1.27	1878.7	1828.0	2.70	308.0	323.2	-4.94
84q3	4020.8	3976.0	1.12	1904.0	1866.8	1.96	307.3	316.6	-3.03
84q4	4078.0	4034.0	1.08	1927.6	1899.0	1.49	320.6	323.1	-0.79
85q1	4159.5	4117.2	1.02	1958.0	1933.7	1.24	326.6	325.6	0.31
85q2	4216.5	4175.7	0.97	1986.1	1964.3	1.10	332.1	327.4	1.42
85q3	4272.6	4258.3	0.33	2012.6	1996.1	0.82	341.7	346.0	-1.26
85q4	4335.2	4318.7	0.38	2049.6	2037.1	0.61	329.6	331.2	-0.49
86q1	4393.2	4382.4	0.25	2073.3	2063.5	0.47	322.1	324.4	-0.73
86q2	4451.0	4423.3	0.62	2091.9	2081.8	0.48	319.0	315.1	1.22
86q3	4514.9	4491.3	0.52	2123.4	2111.7	0.55	311.2	307.5	1.19
86q4	4583.4	4543.3	0.88	2168.1	2152.2	0.73	317.4	309.5	2.48
87q1	4655.5	4611.1	0.95	2211.9	2193.7	0.82	334.3	323.3	3.28
87q2	4717.9	4686.7	0.66	2247.3	2230.1	0.77	367.2	363.1	1.11
87q3	4791.7	4764.5	0.57	2287.0	2270.4	0.73	393.4	389.7	0.93
87q4	4863.1	4883.1	-0.41	2336.2	2330.9	0.23	382.6	395.2	-3.30
88q1	4939.8	4948.6	-0.18	2367.7	2367.2	0.02	398.3	405.1	-1.72
88q2	5025.5	5059.3	-0.67	2415.1	2422.2	-0.29	407.9	421.4	-3.29
88q3	5123.9	5142.8	-0.37	2452.9	2462.7	-0.40	421.0	428.3	-1.73
88q4	5204.6	5251.0	-0.89	2491.8	2507.1	-0.61	438.8	451.7	-2.95
89q1	5299.0	5360.3	-1.16	2517.1	2542.0	-0.99	415.1	431.4	-3.92
89q2	5392.6	5453.6	-1.13	2536.0	2563.3	-1.08	411.9	423.9	-2.90
89q3	5470.5	5532.9	-1.14	2561.2	2591.7	-1.19	415.3	428.6	-3.20
89q4	5546.6	5581.7	-0.63	2608.3	2635.3	-1.04	418.1	418.4	-0.07
90q1	5656.0	5708.1	-0.92	2659.6	2686.8	-1.02	420.7	427.3	-1.57
90q2	5764.1	5797.4	-0.58	2712.2	2735.9	-0.87	451.9	452.4	-0.11
90q3	5859.7	5850.6	0.15	2758.3	2768.6	-0.37	440.3	426.9	3.03
90q4	5949.7	5846.0	1.74	2790.1	2773.2	0.60	470.1	431.2	8.28
91q1	6054.6	5880.2	2.88	2824.5	2775.8	1.72	520.5	462.4	11.16
91q2	6137.6	5962.0	2.86	2869.9	2801.6	2.38	504.3	455.8	9.61
91q3	6224.3	6033.7	3.06	2911.9	2826.5	2.93	499.2	453.2	9.20
91q4	6299.7	6092.5	3.29	2953.5	2854.2	3.36	498.8	457.7	8.25
92q1	6375.6	6190.7	2.90	3003.7	2903.5	3.34	516.1	491.0	4.86
92q2	6454.3	6295.2	2.47	3036.2	2942.8	3.08	515.9	498.7	3.33
92q3	6524.4	6389.7	2.06	3060.5	2976.1	2.76	489.9	480.5	1.92
92q4	6603.7	6493.6	1.67	3145.2	3071.9	2.33	517.1	514.7	0.45
93q1	6687.9	6544.5	2.14	3033.0	2962.5	2.33	527.5	509.3	3.44
93q2	6769.2	6622.7	2.16	3138.0	3065.5	2.31	555.0	533.7	3.85
93q3	6847.1	6688.3	2.32	3173.6	3098.3	2.37	569.9	543.4	4.65
93q4	6930.0	6813.8	1.68	3250.5	3180.1	2.17	602.8	588.4	2.38
94q1	7016.6	6916.3	1.43	3192.3	3129.8	1.96	597.5	590.5	1.17
94q2	7100.1	7044.3	0.79	3274.6	3224.6	1.53	603.7	610.0	-1.05
94q3	7190.7	7131.8	0.82	3297.5	3258.0	1.20	641.1	643.2	-0.32
94q4	7280.6	7248.2	0.44	3340.4	3310.9	0.88	663.2	669.2	-0.91
95q1	7377.2	7307.7	0.94	3390.7	3360.6	0.89	684.8	674.8	1.46
95q2	7464.4	7355.8	1.45	3436.1	3395.3	1.19	729.6	702.2	3.76
95q3	7551.6	7452.5	1.31	3481.4	3438.2	1.24	759.1	737.7	2.82
95q4	7647.1	7542.5	1.37	3526.9	3478.0	1.39	774.5	750.0	3.16
96q1	7746.5	7638.2	1.40	3579.3	3525.8	1.49	806.4	783.2	2.88
96q2	7834.3	7800.0	0.44	3629.5	3590.5	1.08	788.2	795.9	-0.97
96q3	7933.6	7892.7	0.52	3681.8	3646.5	0.96	797.6	802.1	-0.57
96q4	8031.8	8023.0	0.11	3723.9	3702.5	0.57	813.3	824.8	-1.41
97q1	8136.0	8137.0	-0.01	3783.4	3777.1	0.17	845.1	855.7	-1.25
97q2	8237.6	8276.8	-0.48	3834.3	3835.3	-0.03	857.6	878.8	-2.47
97q3	8327.4	8409.9	-0.99	3882.2	3903.4	-0.55	880.2	912.0	-3.61
97q4	8427.7	8505.7	-0.93	3961.0	3990.5	-0.75	869.5	892.9	-2.70
98q1	8510.7	8600.6	-1.06	4035.9	4075.9	-0.99	792.8	817.7	-3.14
98q2	8603.9	8698.6	-1.10	4099.2	4145.9	-1.14	790.9	811.5	-2.61
98q3	8709.9	8847.2	-1.58	4158.5	4216.9	-1.40	789.0	820.1	-3.94
98q4	8807.9	9027.5	-2.49	4203.7	4287.8	-2.00	744.2	800.3	-7.54
99q1	8921.7	9148.6	-2.54	4269.6	4370.4	-2.36	807.6	859.7	-6.46
99q2	9036.5	9252.6	-2.39	4306.2	4412.8	-2.48	813.9	859.4	-5.59
99q3	9147.0	9405.1	-2.82	4350.4	4474.3	-2.85	793.8	848.4	-6.88
99q4	9265.2	9607.7	-3.70	4433.8	4582.7	-3.36	782.0	857.6	-9.67
00q1	9418.7	9709.5	-3.09	4598.7	4755.1	-3.40	792.0	840.5	-6.12
00q2	9552.9	9949.1	-4.15	4601.7	4781.9	-3.92	747.9	831.7	-11.20
00q3	9698.0	10017.5	-3.29	4690.3	4874.4	-3.92	766.9	814.7	-6.23
00q4	9837.6	10129.8	-2.97	4728.5	4899.5	-3.62	761.1	790.0	-3.80
01q1	9998.1	10165.1	-1.67	4845.7	4988.1	-2.94	787.0	782.8	0.54
01q2	10160.3	10301.3	-1.39	4850.2	4961.4	-2.29	826.2	812.3	1.68
01q3	10284.8	10305.2	-0.20	4865.3	4932.4	-1.38	805.7	765.0	5.05
01q4	10404.8	10373.1	0.30	4900.1	4926.8	-0.55	823.8	776.6	5.73
02q1	10531.1	10498.7	0.31	4957.3	4963.6	-0.13	857.7	830.3	3.19
02q2	10666.0	10601.9	0.60	5018.5	5003.0	0.31	884.9	852.0	3.72
02q3	10800.4	10701.7	0.91	5040.8	5006.3	0.68	900.7	869.8	3.43
02q4	10949.7	10766.9	1.67	5076.5	5016.4	1.18	988.9	936.7	5.27
03q1	11113.4	10888.4	2.02	5134.7	5049.6	1.66	977.3	917.5	6.12
03q2	11228.4	11008.1	1.96	5208.9	5109.9	1.90	999.7	950.1	4.97
03q3	11370.9	11255.7	1.01	5246.1	5159.6	1.65	1000.9	992.7	0.82
03q4	11509.8	11416.5	0.81	5313.2	5239.4	1.39	1049.1	1050.9	-0.17
04q1	11683.7	11597.2	0.74	5341.4	5279.4	1.16	1185.7	1187.2	-0.13
04q2	11857.6	11778.4	0.67	5434.2	5385.1	0.90	1224.9	1226.9	-0.16
04q3	12017.6	11950.6	0.56	5535.3	5493.9	0.75	1296.8	1292.2	0.35
04q4	12179.5	12144.9	0.28	5575.3	5544.4	0.55	1277.7	1281.4	-0.29
05q1	12366.8	12379.5	-0.10	5599.9	5584.2	0.28	1389.6	1408.2	-1.34
05q2	12525.4	12516.8	0.07	5661.8	5651.7	0.18	1423.2	1429.0	-0.40
05q3	12730.5	12741.6	-0.09	5761.0	5758.3	0.05	1443.6	1454.7	-0.77
05q4	12914.9	12915.6	-0.01	5808.1	5809.8	-0.03	1529.2	1532.5	-0.22
06q1	13091.1	13183.5	-0.71	5959.8	5978.9	-0.32	1557.4	1590.9	-2.16
06q2	13289.7	13347.8	-0.44	5994.2	6018.6	-0.41	1579.8	1597.7	-1.13
06q3	13474.8	13452.9	0.16	6065.7	6075.4	-0.16	1671.2	1655.1	0.97
06q4	13622.2	13611.5	0.08	6195.8	6202.7	-0.11	1594.7	1589.6	0.32
07q1	13852.7	13795.6	0.41	6351.3	6343.6	0.12	1564.1	1535.4	1.83
07q2	14033.7	13997.2	0.26	6388.8	6372.2	0.26	1609.8	1594.9	0.93
07q3	14180.9	14179.9	0.01	6422.6	6412.5	0.16	1530.7	1537.1	-0.42
07q4	14352.8	14337.9	0.10	6517.7	6507.3	0.16	1502.0	1499.4	0.17
08q1	14510.5	14373.9	0.94	6568.1	6533.0	0.53	1501.1	1459.7	2.76
08q2	14666.3	14497.8	1.15	6591.2	6539.2	0.79	1452.8	1403.7	3.38
08q3	14901.0	14546.7	2.38	6669.5	6567.7	1.53	1568.9	1454.6	7.29
08q4	14991.1	14347.3	4.29	6744.8	6543.5	2.98	1313.2	1123.6	14.43
09q1	15144.0	14178.0	6.38	6619.9	6307.8	4.71	1452.0	1182.7	18.55
09q2	15221.1	14151.2	7.03	6725.3	6313.2	6.13	1500.9	1226.5	18.28
09q3	15314.4	14242.1	7.00	6720.0	6249.2	7.01	1603.6	1358.9	15.26
09q4	15425.0	14461.7	6.25	6760.4	6267.3	7.29	1694.8	1520.1	10.31

Return to Figure 2

Figure 2: Estimates of GDP, Wage, and Profit Gaps (Calendar Years)

Calendar Year	GDP, HEB	GDP, ACT	GDP, GAP	Wages, HEB	Wages, ACT	Wages, GAP	Profits, HEB	Profits, ACT	Profits, GAP
1950	290.0	293.7	-1.24	147.8	147.3	0.41	33.1	35.6	-7.24
1951	325.9	339.3	-4.10	164.8	171.6	-4.11	37.6	40.8	-8.62
1952	350.4	358.3	-2.25	180.5	185.6	-2.84	38.0	38.8	-2.17
1953	369.9	379.3	-2.57	193.1	199.0	-3.07	37.6	39.1	-3.92
1954	385.3	380.4	1.28	198.7	197.3	0.74	40.6	38.3	5.76
1955	401.5	414.7	-3.28	207.3	212.2	-2.30	44.4	49.0	-10.47
1956	427.9	437.4	-2.23	222.7	229.0	-2.86	47.0	48.0	-2.12
1957	457.5	461.1	-0.80	236.6	240.0	-1.44	47.9	47.6	0.56
1958	483.8	467.2	3.44	248.8	241.3	3.00	47.2	42.5	10.24
1959	505.3	506.6	-0.27	261.2	259.8	0.53	51.5	53.8	-4.62
1960	531.3	526.4	0.88	273.8	272.9	0.33	55.0	53.1	3.36
1961	559.3	544.8	2.61	288.8	280.5	2.86	57.3	54.2	5.45
1962	590.3	585.7	0.77	302.8	299.4	1.14	62.0	62.3	-0.63
1963	621.4	617.8	0.59	317.5	314.9	0.82	68.7	68.3	0.48
1964	657.6	663.6	-0.92	335.6	337.8	-0.66	73.2	75.5	-3.16
1965	698.4	719.1	-2.95	355.2	363.8	-2.40	80.4	86.5	-7.60
1966	751.1	787.7	-4.88	380.8	400.3	-5.14	84.3	92.5	-9.80
1967	810.7	832.4	-2.70	414.0	429.0	-3.64	88.6	90.2	-1.80
1968	882.6	909.8	-3.09	457.4	472.0	-3.19	91.9	97.3	-5.86
1969	964.3	984.4	-2.11	504.5	518.3	-2.75	92.6	94.5	-2.00
1970	1051.7	1038.3	1.25	554.0	551.6	0.42	89.0	82.5	7.30
1971	1138.8	1126.8	1.05	592.4	584.5	1.33	97.3	96.1	1.22
1972	1223.9	1237.9	-1.13	636.3	638.8	-0.38	105.1	111.4	-5.96
1973	1334.4	1382.3	-3.60	684.6	708.8	-3.52	113.4	124.5	-9.96
1974	1508.9	1499.4	0.56	766.4	772.3	-0.83	125.4	115.1	8.08
1975	1711.0	1637.7	4.30	849.2	814.7	4.05	150.8	133.3	11.89
1976	1867.1	1824.6	2.27	927.0	899.6	2.96	163.8	161.6	1.35
1977	2050.1	2030.1	0.99	1010.0	994.1	1.59	191.1	191.8	-0.28
1978	2271.7	2293.8	-0.94	1116.7	1120.3	-0.29	208.3	218.4	-4.75
1979	2547.7	2562.2	-0.58	1240.0	1253.5	-1.10	225.7	225.4	0.10
1980	2852.4	2788.1	2.23	1395.9	1373.5	1.57	220.6	201.4	8.73
1981	3189.4	3126.8	1.94	1545.0	1511.3	2.18	231.0	223.3	3.21
1982	3481.8	3253.2	6.55	1686.8	1587.5	5.86	256.3	205.7	19.75
1983	3727.8	3534.6	5.21	1795.6	1678.0	6.56	276.8	259.8	6.26
1984	3986.5	3930.9	1.40	1891.6	1844.7	2.49	308.7	318.6	-3.25
1985	4246.0	4217.5	0.67	2001.6	1982.8	0.94	332.5	332.5	-0.01
1986	4485.6	4460.1	0.57	2114.2	2102.3	0.56	317.4	314.1	1.04
1987	4757.1	4736.4	0.44	2270.6	2256.3	0.64	369.4	367.8	0.50
1988	5073.5	5100.4	-0.53	2431.9	2439.8	-0.32	416.5	426.6	-2.42
1989	5427.2	5482.2	-1.02	2555.6	2583.1	-1.07	415.1	425.6	-2.52
1990	5807.4	5800.5	0.10	2730.0	2741.1	-0.42	445.7	434.4	2.41
1991	6179.1	5992.1	3.02	2889.9	2814.5	2.60	505.7	457.3	9.55
1992	6489.5	6342.3	2.27	3061.4	2973.5	2.88	509.7	496.2	2.64
1993	6808.6	6667.3	2.08	3148.8	3076.6	2.29	563.8	543.7	3.58
1994	7147.0	7085.2	0.87	3276.2	3230.8	1.39	626.4	628.2	-0.28
1995	7510.1	7414.7	1.27	3458.8	3418.0	1.18	737.0	716.2	2.80
1996	7886.6	7838.5	0.62	3653.6	3616.3	1.02	801.4	801.5	-0.02
1997	8282.2	8332.4	-0.60	3865.2	3876.6	-0.29	863.1	884.8	-2.51
1998	8658.1	8793.5	-1.56	4124.3	4181.6	-1.38	779.2	812.4	-4.31
1999	9092.6	9353.5	-2.86	4340.0	4460.0	-2.76	799.3	856.3	-7.15
2000	9626.8	9951.5	-3.37	4654.8	4827.7	-3.71	767.0	819.2	-6.84
2001	10212.0	10286.2	-0.74	4865.3	4952.2	-1.79	810.7	784.2	3.25
2002	10736.8	10642.3	0.87	5023.3	4997.3	0.51	908.0	872.2	3.90
2003	11305.6	11142.1	1.45	5225.7	5139.6	1.65	1006.7	977.8	2.93
2004	11934.6	11867.8	0.56	5471.5	5425.7	0.84	1246.3	1246.9	-0.06
2005	12634.4	12638.4	-0.03	5707.7	5701.0	0.12	1446.4	1456.1	-0.68
2006	13369.5	13398.9	-0.23	6053.9	6068.9	-0.25	1600.8	1608.3	-0.50
2007	14105.0	14077.6	0.20	6420.1	6408.9	0.17	1551.6	1541.7	0.63
2008	14767.2	14441.4	2.19	6643.4	6545.8	1.46	1459.0	1360.4	6.97
2009	15276.1	14258.2	6.66	6706.4	6284.4	6.29	1562.8	1322.1	15.60

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3A: Estimates of Cyclical Receipts by Government (Quaterly)

Quarter	General Government, HEB	General Government, ACT	General Government, CYC	Federal Government, HEB	Federal Government, ACT	Federal Government, CYC	State & Local Government*, HEB	State & Local Government*, ACT	State & Local Government*, CYC	GDP, HEB	GDP, ACT	GDP, GAP
1970, Q1	297.9	302.5	0.45	182.6	187.4	0.47	115.3	115.1	-0.02	1020.2	1017.1	0.30
1970, Q2	305.2	306.8	0.15	186.0	188.2	0.22	119.2	118.6	-0.06	1043.6	1033.1	1.01
1970, Q3	306.8	307.0	0.02	183.9	184.8	0.09	122.9	122.2	-0.07	1060.4	1050.5	0.93
1970, Q4	314.1	308.4	-0.53	187.8	183.9	-0.35	126.4	124.5	-0.18	1082.4	1052.7	2.75
1971, Q1	318.5	317.2	-0.12	189.3	188.7	-0.06	129.2	128.5	-0.06	1107.1	1098.1	0.82
1971, Q2	326.5	324.7	-0.15	192.6	191.6	-0.09	133.9	133.2	-0.07	1130.3	1118.8	1.02
1971, Q3	331.3	328.8	-0.22	193.8	192.0	-0.15	137.5	136.7	-0.07	1150.1	1139.1	0.96
1971, Q4	340.2	336.6	-0.31	197.9	195.3	-0.22	142.4	141.3	-0.09	1167.8	1151.4	1.41
1972, Q1	362.6	361.5	-0.09	215.0	214.3	-0.05	147.6	147.2	-0.04	1195.7	1190.1	0.46
1972, Q2	373.1	377.2	0.33	214.6	217.7	0.26	158.5	159.4	0.07	1211.6	1225.6	-1.15
1972, Q3	370.4	375.6	0.42	216.7	220.7	0.32	153.7	154.9	0.10	1232.0	1249.3	-1.40
1972, Q4	391.9	400.7	0.70	221.8	228.4	0.53	170.1	172.3	0.17	1256.2	1286.6	-2.42
1973, Q1	399.0	415.0	1.25	231.6	243.9	0.96	167.4	171.0	0.29	1282.9	1335.1	-4.07
1973, Q2	402.4	420.3	1.37	234.0	248.0	1.06	168.4	172.4	0.30	1315.2	1371.5	-4.28
1973, Q3	412.2	426.4	1.05	240.0	251.2	0.83	172.2	175.1	0.22	1352.0	1390.7	-2.86
1973, Q4	424.6	438.9	1.03	249.0	260.1	0.80	175.6	178.9	0.24	1387.4	1431.8	-3.20
1974, Q1	441.0	448.1	0.50	262.0	267.6	0.40	179.0	180.4	0.10	1429.1	1446.5	-1.22
1974, Q2	461.0	463.9	0.19	275.9	278.0	0.15	185.1	185.8	0.05	1474.8	1484.8	-0.68
1974, Q3	486.4	480.9	-0.36	293.0	288.8	-0.27	193.4	192.0	-0.09	1534.9	1513.7	1.38
1974, Q4	493.0	479.4	-0.85	296.0	285.4	-0.66	197.1	194.0	-0.19	1596.9	1552.8	2.76
1975, Q1	500.8	477.0	-1.44	297.0	278.7	-1.11	203.7	198.3	-0.33	1648.3	1569.4	4.78
1975, Q2	478.6	453.2	-1.51	265.1	245.6	-1.16	213.5	207.6	-0.35	1686.6	1605.0	4.84
1975, Q3	528.6	502.8	-1.49	309.7	289.0	-1.19	218.9	213.8	-0.29	1732.2	1662.5	4.03
1975, Q4	540.1	515.9	-1.36	316.9	297.2	-1.11	223.2	218.6	-0.26	1776.9	1713.9	3.54
1976, Q1	553.2	538.3	-0.82	324.6	312.5	-0.67	228.5	225.8	-0.15	1810.8	1771.9	2.15
1976, Q2	562.9	549.6	-0.72	330.0	319.4	-0.58	232.9	230.2	-0.14	1844.0	1804.2	2.16
1976, Q3	576.4	562.0	-0.76	338.5	327.1	-0.60	237.9	234.9	-0.16	1883.1	1837.7	2.41
1976, Q4	591.6	576.7	-0.77	344.7	332.9	-0.61	246.9	243.8	-0.16	1930.3	1884.5	2.37
1977, Q1	608.0	595.4	-0.64	357.3	347.5	-0.49	250.8	247.9	-0.14	1978.5	1938.5	2.02
1977, Q2	624.9	617.7	-0.36	367.1	361.4	-0.28	257.9	256.3	-0.08	2026.3	2005.2	1.04
1977, Q3	634.2	633.2	-0.05	368.7	368.0	-0.03	265.6	265.2	-0.02	2071.3	2066.0	0.26
1977, Q4	652.5	649.4	-0.15	381.2	379.0	-0.10	271.3	270.4	-0.04	2124.3	2110.8	0.63
1978, Q1	673.0	667.0	-0.28	393.3	389.2	-0.19	279.7	277.8	-0.09	2178.1	2149.1	1.33
1978, Q2	697.2	707.2	0.45	409.9	417.6	0.35	287.3	289.5	0.10	2240.3	2274.7	-1.54
1978, Q3	709.4	722.7	0.58	424.3	435.2	0.48	285.1	287.5	0.10	2300.0	2335.2	-1.53
1978, Q4	730.4	749.5	0.81	438.2	454.0	0.67	292.2	295.5	0.14	2368.3	2416.0	-2.02
1979, Q1	748.8	768.6	0.81	452.5	469.8	0.71	296.3	298.8	0.10	2433.5	2463.3	-1.22
1979, Q2	770.4	783.7	0.53	468.6	480.9	0.49	301.8	302.8	0.04	2514.0	2526.4	-0.49
1979, Q3	794.4	805.9	0.44	482.5	493.1	0.41	311.9	312.8	0.04	2586.5	2599.7	-0.51
1979, Q4	816.9	822.9	0.23	497.9	503.9	0.23	319.0	319.1	0.00	2656.8	2659.4	-0.10
1980, Q1	844.9	846.0	0.04	516.2	518.0	0.07	328.7	328.0	-0.03	2732.2	2724.1	0.30
1980, Q2	864.5	844.6	-0.71	529.2	515.1	-0.50	335.3	329.5	-0.20	2808.3	2728.0	2.86
1980, Q3	909.3	875.8	-1.16	560.2	534.3	-0.90	349.2	341.5	-0.26	2886.6	2785.2	3.51
1980, Q4	948.9	917.6	-1.05	590.0	563.9	-0.87	358.9	353.7	-0.17	2982.4	2915.3	2.25
1981, Q1	993.3	970.6	-0.74	627.5	607.1	-0.66	365.8	363.5	-0.07	3076.2	3051.4	0.81
1981, Q2	1015.5	984.6	-0.98	642.8	616.6	-0.83	372.7	368.1	-0.15	3149.0	3084.3	2.06
1981, Q3	1034.2	1006.4	-0.86	656.8	632.4	-0.76	377.4	374.0	-0.10	3226.9	3177.0	1.55
1981, Q4	1042.8	999.0	-1.33	659.9	623.7	-1.10	382.9	375.3	-0.23	3305.4	3194.7	3.35
1982, Q1	1066.8	997.9	-2.04	670.9	617.1	-1.59	395.9	380.8	-0.45	3377.0	3184.9	5.69
1982, Q2	1090.9	1012.6	-2.27	685.8	623.5	-1.81	405.1	389.1	-0.46	3445.1	3241.0	5.93
1982, Q3	1102.6	1007.8	-2.69	687.7	612.7	-2.13	414.9	395.0	-0.56	3520.1	3274.4	6.98
1982, Q4	1123.5	1016.9	-2.97	700.6	616.1	-2.36	422.9	400.8	-0.62	3585.0	3312.5	7.60
1983, Q1	1132.8	1030.6	-2.81	705.0	623.0	-2.25	427.9	407.6	-0.56	3642.3	3381.0	7.17
1983, Q2	1166.6	1072.2	-2.56	726.0	648.6	-2.09	440.6	423.6	-0.46	3695.2	3482.2	5.76
1983, Q3	1158.0	1078.4	-2.12	707.8	642.0	-1.75	450.2	436.4	-0.37	3759.6	3587.1	4.59
1983, Q4	1169.8	1106.3	-1.66	713.1	659.4	-1.41	456.7	446.9	-0.26	3814.2	3688.1	3.31
1984, Q1	1202.3	1158.8	-1.12	730.9	693.5	-0.96	471.4	465.3	-0.16	3890.6	3807.4	2.14
1984, Q2	1214.4	1184.3	-0.76	732.9	706.2	-0.67	481.6	478.1	-0.09	3956.4	3906.3	1.27
1984, Q3	1218.7	1194.4	-0.60	734.0	712.7	-0.53	484.7	481.6	-0.08	4020.8	3976.0	1.12
1984, Q4	1245.3	1223.1	-0.55	746.6	727.5	-0.47	498.7	495.6	-0.08	4078.0	4034.0	1.08
1985, Q1	1310.1	1287.3	-0.55	800.2	780.8	-0.47	509.9	506.5	-0.08	4159.5	4117.2	1.02
1985, Q2	1282.1	1261.0	-0.50	762.2	744.6	-0.42	520.0	516.4	-0.08	4216.5	4175.7	0.97
1985, Q3	1321.3	1308.4	-0.30	793.9	782.3	-0.27	527.5	526.1	-0.03	4272.6	4258.3	0.33
1985, Q4	1336.1	1325.2	-0.25	799.6	790.0	-0.22	536.6	535.2	-0.03	4335.2	4318.7	0.38
1986, Q1	1362.8	1353.1	-0.22	809.1	800.5	-0.20	553.7	552.6	-0.02	4393.2	4382.4	0.25
1986, Q2	1371.2	1358.5	-0.29	814.1	803.7	-0.23	557.1	554.8	-0.05	4451.0	4423.3	0.62
1986, Q3	1396.9	1384.7	-0.27	827.6	817.6	-0.22	569.3	567.1	-0.05	4514.9	4491.3	0.52
1986, Q4	1430.8	1414.4	-0.36	855.1	842.4	-0.28	575.7	572.0	-0.08	4583.4	4543.3	0.88
1987, Q1	1441.7	1418.1	-0.51	864.6	845.3	-0.41	577.0	572.8	-0.09	4655.5	4611.1	0.95
1987, Q2	1529.4	1508.4	-0.45	932.3	914.3	-0.38	597.1	594.1	-0.06	4717.9	4686.7	0.66
1987, Q3	1518.3	1499.3	-0.40	922.2	905.8	-0.34	596.1	593.5	-0.06	4791.7	4764.5	0.57
1987, Q4	1525.8	1522.7	-0.07	925.2	920.7	-0.09	600.7	602.0	0.03	4863.1	4883.1	-0.41
1988, Q1	1557.7	1554.5	-0.06	942.6	938.7	-0.08	615.0	615.8	0.02	4939.8	4948.6	-0.18
1988, Q2	1567.1	1572.9	0.12	944.2	947.3	0.06	622.9	625.6	0.05	5025.5	5059.3	-0.67
1988, Q3	1602.0	1607.6	0.11	959.9	963.5	0.07	642.1	644.1	0.04	5123.9	5142.8	-0.37
1988, Q4	1628.0	1641.2	0.25	975.3	984.6	0.18	652.7	656.6	0.07	5204.6	5251.0	-0.89
1989, Q1	1684.2	1703.0	0.35	1015.3	1028.4	0.25	668.9	674.6	0.11	5299.0	5360.3	-1.16
1989, Q2	1696.5	1715.4	0.35	1015.4	1028.8	0.25	681.2	686.5	0.10	5392.6	5453.6	-1.13
1989, Q3	1714.5	1736.4	0.40	1025.5	1041.7	0.30	689.0	694.7	0.10	5470.5	5532.9	-1.14
1989, Q4	1735.1	1747.3	0.22	1044.2	1053.2	0.16	690.9	694.2	0.06	5546.6	5581.7	-0.63
1990, Q1	1767.8	1781.8	0.25	1050.7	1060.2	0.17	717.1	721.6	0.08	5656.0	5708.1	-0.92
1990, Q2	1798.7	1806.5	0.14	1071.6	1076.3	0.08	727.1	730.2	0.05	5764.1	5797.4	-0.58
1990, Q3	1843.7	1835.9	-0.13	1099.1	1092.0	-0.12	744.6	743.9	-0.01	5859.7	5850.6	0.15
1990, Q4	1899.1	1858.7	-0.68	1134.3	1102.5	-0.54	764.8	756.2	-0.14	5949.7	5846.0	1.74
1991, Q1	1930.3	1857.6	-1.20	1150.9	1093.4	-0.95	779.4	764.2	-0.25	6054.6	5880.2	2.88
1991, Q2	1957.5	1874.7	-1.35	1162.5	1095.6	-1.09	795.0	779.1	-0.26	6137.6	5962.0	2.86
1991, Q3	1997.4	1902.5	-1.52	1181.8	1104.5	-1.24	815.6	798.0	-0.28	6224.3	6033.7	3.06
1991, Q4	2034.3	1930.4	-1.65	1199.1	1114.1	-1.35	835.3	816.3	-0.30	6299.7	6092.5	3.29
1992, Q1	2044.9	1950.6	-1.48	1202.8	1125.0	-1.22	842.1	825.6	-0.26	6375.6	6190.7	2.90
1992, Q2	2068.1	1981.5	-1.34	1211.5	1139.1	-1.12	856.6	842.4	-0.22	6454.3	6295.2	2.47
1992, Q3	2077.7	2000.2	-1.19	1212.4	1146.5	-1.01	865.3	853.7	-0.18	6524.4	6389.7	2.06
1992, Q4	2112.6	2044.6	-1.03	1240.3	1181.4	-0.89	872.3	863.2	-0.14	6603.7	6493.6	1.67
1993, Q1	2106.2	2036.3	-1.05	1230.9	1172.2	-0.88	875.3	864.0	-0.17	6687.9	6544.5	2.14
1993, Q2	2169.8	2095.6	-1.10	1281.1	1218.6	-0.92	888.7	877.0	-0.17	6769.2	6622.7	2.16
1993, Q3	2198.7	2119.6	-1.15	1292.4	1226.2	-0.97	906.3	893.5	-0.19	6847.1	6688.3	2.32
1993, Q4	2269.9	2197.5	-1.04	1341.4	1279.3	-0.90	928.5	918.1	-0.15	6930.0	6813.8	1.68
1994, Q1	2260.2	2200.7	-0.85	1327.4	1276.6	-0.72	932.9	924.1	-0.12	7016.6	6916.3	1.43
1994, Q2	2299.7	2255.5	-0.62	1362.2	1323.2	-0.55	937.5	932.3	-0.07	7100.1	7044.3	0.79
1994, Q3	2324.7	2286.7	-0.53	1365.1	1332.1	-0.46	959.6	954.5	-0.07	7190.7	7131.8	0.82
1994, Q4	2352.6	2324.9	-0.38	1381.0	1356.5	-0.34	971.6	968.4	-0.04	7280.6	7248.2	0.44
1995, Q1	2397.8	2363.6	-0.46	1407.3	1379.0	-0.38	990.5	984.6	-0.08	7377.2	7307.7	0.94
1995, Q2	2436.9	2388.1	-0.65	1446.6	1407.2	-0.53	990.3	981.0	-0.13	7464.4	7355.8	1.45
1995, Q3	2461.0	2412.8	-0.64	1453.3	1414.0	-0.52	1007.7	998.8	-0.12	7551.6	7452.5	1.31
1995, Q4	2487.4	2434.4	-0.69	1474.3	1431.2	-0.56	1013.1	1003.2	-0.13	7647.1	7542.5	1.37
1996, Q1	2546.9	2490.5	-0.73	1513.7	1467.7	-0.59	1033.2	1022.8	-0.13	7746.5	7638.2	1.40
1996, Q2	2599.3	2566.5	-0.42	1550.2	1521.9	-0.36	1049.1	1044.7	-0.06	7834.3	7800.0	0.44
1996, Q3	2610.0	2585.1	-0.31	1554.3	1533.8	-0.26	1055.7	1051.3	-0.05	7933.6	7892.7	0.52
1996, Q4	2655.7	2644.0	-0.15	1592.7	1582.4	-0.13	1063.1	1061.5	-0.02	8031.8	8023.0	0.11
1997, Q1	2687.9	2683.3	-0.06	1610.3	1605.6	-0.06	1077.7	1077.7	0.00	8136.0	8137.0	-0.01
1997, Q2	2715.2	2726.9	0.14	1632.1	1641.2	0.11	1083.0	1085.8	0.03	8237.6	8276.8	-0.48
1997, Q3	2754.4	2785.2	0.37	1653.4	1677.5	0.29	1101.1	1107.7	0.08	8327.4	8409.9	-0.99
1997, Q4	2792.1	2827.1	0.41	1672.0	1700.4	0.34	1120.1	1126.7	0.08	8427.7	8505.7	-0.93
1998, Q1	2832.5	2873.9	0.49	1700.8	1734.0	0.39	1131.8	1139.9	0.10	8510.7	8600.6	-1.06
1998, Q2	2870.1	2912.4	0.49	1726.5	1760.2	0.39	1143.7	1152.2	0.10	8603.9	8698.6	-1.10
1998, Q3	2909.4	2963.0	0.62	1753.7	1795.7	0.48	1155.7	1167.3	0.13	8709.9	8847.2	-1.58
1998, Q4	2938.2	3020.2	0.93	1758.2	1821.5	0.72	1180.0	1198.6	0.21	8807.9	9027.5	-2.49
1999, Q1	2976.1	3062.6	0.97	1785.5	1852.3	0.75	1190.6	1210.3	0.22	8921.7	9148.6	-2.54
1999, Q2	3007.5	3093.9	0.96	1805.4	1872.4	0.74	1202.2	1221.5	0.21	9036.5	9252.6	-2.39
1999, Q3	3056.7	3156.2	1.09	1827.0	1903.4	0.83	1229.7	1252.9	0.25	9147.0	9405.1	-2.82
1999, Q4	3101.8	3228.8	1.37	1854.7	1951.8	1.05	1247.1	1277.0	0.32	9265.2	9607.7	-3.70
2000, Q1	3216.5	3332.1	1.23	1944.7	2032.9	0.94	1271.9	1299.1	0.29	9418.7	9709.5	-3.09
2000, Q2	3220.2	3370.6	1.58	1932.7	2047.2	1.20	1287.5	1323.4	0.38	9552.9	9949.1	-4.15
2000, Q3	3264.7	3396.3	1.36	1963.3	2064.7	1.05	1301.5	1331.6	0.31	9698.0	10017.5	-3.29
2000, Q4	3307.1	3420.0	1.15	1997.8	2083.8	0.87	1309.4	1336.2	0.27	9837.6	10129.8	-2.97
2001, Q1	3398.1	3470.2	0.72	2047.6	2101.9	0.54	1350.5	1368.3	0.18	9998.1	10165.1	-1.67
2001, Q2	3432.1	3475.6	0.43	2057.0	2087.0	0.29	1375.1	1388.7	0.13	10160.3	10301.3	-1.39
2001, Q3	3263.5	3258.5	-0.05	1903.1	1894.9	-0.08	1360.4	1363.7	0.03	10284.8	10305.2	-0.20
2001, Q4	3413.7	3372.8	-0.39	2035.7	1997.3	-0.37	1378.0	1375.5	-0.02	10404.8	10373.1	0.30
2002, Q1	3285.3	3240.9	-0.42	1902.1	1860.0	-0.40	1383.2	1381.0	-0.02	10531.1	10498.7	0.31
2002, Q2	3314.2	3253.6	-0.57	1914.2	1858.4	-0.52	1400.0	1395.2	-0.05	10666.0	10601.9	0.60
2002, Q3	3358.7	3285.4	-0.68	1922.2	1855.9	-0.61	1436.5	1429.5	-0.06	10800.4	10701.7	0.91
2002, Q4	3409.4	3308.3	-0.92	1951.6	1863.1	-0.81	1457.8	1445.1	-0.12	10949.7	10766.9	1.67
2003, Q1	3444.7	3327.3	-1.06	1987.7	1886.3	-0.91	1457.1	1441.0	-0.14	11113.4	10888.4	2.02
2003, Q2	3499.4	3376.0	-1.10	2010.6	1902.8	-0.96	1488.8	1473.2	-0.14	11228.4	11008.1	1.96
2003, Q3	3440.3	3346.6	-0.82	1912.0	1827.4	-0.74	1528.3	1519.2	-0.08	11370.9	11255.7	1.01
2003, Q4	3560.0	3475.7	-0.73	2001.1	1923.9	-0.67	1558.9	1551.8	-0.06	11509.8	11416.5	0.81
2004, Q1	3565.4	3499.6	-0.56	2004.1	1944.4	-0.51	1561.2	1555.2	-0.05	11683.7	11597.2	0.74
2004, Q2	3624.6	3569.2	-0.47	2039.7	1989.0	-0.43	1585.0	1580.2	-0.04	11857.6	11778.4	0.67
2004, Q3	3706.0	3654.9	-0.43	2090.6	2044.2	-0.39	1615.4	1610.7	-0.04	12017.6	11950.6	0.56
2004, Q4	3774.6	3736.0	-0.32	2114.3	2078.3	-0.30	1660.4	1657.7	-0.02	12179.5	12144.9	0.28
2005, Q1	3940.8	3921.5	-0.16	2250.6	2230.7	-0.16	1690.1	1690.8	0.01	12366.8	12379.5	-0.10
2005, Q2	3991.0	3971.6	-0.16	2276.1	2257.3	-0.15	1715.0	1714.3	-0.01	12525.4	12516.8	0.07
2005, Q3	4058.0	4046.7	-0.09	2317.4	2305.4	-0.09	1740.6	1741.3	0.01	12730.5	12741.6	-0.09
2005, Q4	4153.7	4142.3	-0.09	2378.3	2366.9	-0.09	1775.4	1775.4	-0.00	12914.9	12915.6	-0.01
2006, Q1	4260.4	4274.5	0.11	2465.8	2473.8	0.06	1794.6	1800.6	0.05	13091.1	13183.5	-0.71
2006, Q2	4319.3	4332.1	0.10	2493.5	2501.8	0.06	1825.8	1830.3	0.03	13289.7	13347.8	-0.44
2006, Q3	4400.6	4389.8	-0.08	2556.4	2547.4	-0.07	1844.2	1842.5	-0.01	13474.8	13452.9	0.16
2006, Q4	4429.5	4420.4	-0.07	2583.0	2575.1	-0.06	1846.5	1845.3	-0.01	13622.2	13611.5	0.08
2007, Q1	4572.5	4542.4	-0.22	2664.8	2640.2	-0.18	1907.8	1902.3	-0.04	13852.7	13795.6	0.41
2007, Q2	4614.4	4583.4	-0.22	2686.1	2660.1	-0.19	1928.3	1923.4	-0.04	14033.7	13997.2	0.26
2007, Q3	4610.5	4592.0	-0.13	2676.5	2659.9	-0.12	1934.0	1932.1	-0.01	14180.9	14179.9	0.01
2007, Q4	4657.1	4634.5	-0.16	2702.7	2682.9	-0.14	1954.4	1951.6	-0.02	14352.8	14337.9	0.10
2008, Q1	4608.8	4554.4	-0.37	2633.9	2590.7	-0.30	1975.0	1963.7	-0.08	14510.5	14373.9	0.94
2008, Q2	4435.5	4366.3	-0.47	2427.0	2372.1	-0.37	2008.5	1994.3	-0.10	14666.3	14497.8	1.15
2008, Q3	4610.6	4477.0	-0.90	2594.9	2489.5	-0.71	2015.7	1987.5	-0.19	14901.0	14546.7	2.38
2008, Q4	4635.2	4399.2	-1.57	2632.9	2447.8	-1.24	2002.3	1951.4	-0.34	14991.1	14347.3	4.29
2009, Q1	4546.6	4212.7	-2.20	2510.2	2251.3	-1.71	2036.4	1961.4	-0.50	15144.0	14178.0	6.38
2009, Q2	4622.2	4226.3	-2.60	2552.0	2237.0	-2.07	2070.3	1989.3	-0.53	15221.1	14151.2	7.03
2009, Q3	4613.0	4192.1	-2.75	2526.6	2188.5	-2.21	2086.4	2003.6	-0.54	15314.4	14242.1	7.00
2009, Q4	4693.4	4274.2	-2.72	2602.8	2256.1	-2.25	2090.6	2018.1	-0.47	15425.0	14461.7	6.25

Return to Figure 3

Figure 3A: Estimates of Cyclical Receipts by Government (Calendar Years)

Calendar Year	General Government, HEB	General Government, ACT	General Government, CYC	Federal Government, HEB	Federal Government, ACT	Federal Government, CYC	State & Local Government*, HEB	State & Local Government*, ACT	State & Local Government*, CYC	GDP, HEB	GDP, ACT	GDP, GAP
1970	306.0	306.2	0.02	185.1	186.1	0.10	120.9	120.1	-0.08	1051.7	1038.3	1.27
1971	329.1	326.8	-0.20	193.4	191.9	-0.13	135.7	134.9	-0.07	1138.8	1126.8	1.05
1972	374.5	378.7	0.35	217.0	220.3	0.27	157.5	158.4	0.08	1223.9	1237.9	-1.14
1973	409.5	425.1	1.17	238.7	250.8	0.91	170.9	174.3	0.26	1334.4	1382.3	-3.59
1974	470.3	468.0	-0.15	281.7	280.0	-0.12	188.6	188.1	-0.04	1508.9	1499.4	0.63
1975	512.0	487.2	-1.45	297.2	277.6	-1.14	214.8	209.6	-0.31	1711.0	1637.7	4.28
1976	571.0	556.7	-0.77	334.5	323.0	-0.61	236.5	233.7	-0.15	1867.1	1824.6	2.27
1977	629.9	623.9	-0.29	368.6	364.0	-0.22	261.4	259.9	-0.07	2050.1	2030.1	0.97
1978	702.5	711.6	0.40	416.4	424.0	0.34	286.1	287.6	0.07	2271.7	2293.8	-0.97
1979	782.6	795.3	0.50	475.4	486.9	0.45	307.2	308.4	0.04	2547.7	2562.2	-0.57
1980	891.9	871.0	-0.73	548.9	532.8	-0.56	343.0	338.2	-0.17	2852.4	2788.1	2.25
1981	1021.4	990.2	-0.98	646.8	619.9	-0.84	374.7	370.2	-0.14	3189.4	3126.8	1.96
1982	1096.0	1008.8	-2.50	686.3	617.3	-1.98	409.7	391.4	-0.52	3481.8	3253.2	6.57
1983	1156.8	1071.9	-2.28	713.0	643.3	-1.87	443.8	428.6	-0.41	3727.8	3534.6	5.18
1984	1220.2	1190.1	-0.75	736.1	710.0	-0.65	484.1	480.2	-0.10	3986.5	3930.9	1.39
1985	1312.4	1295.5	-0.40	789.0	774.4	-0.34	523.5	521.1	-0.06	4246.0	4217.5	0.67
1986	1390.4	1377.7	-0.28	826.5	816.0	-0.23	564.0	561.6	-0.05	4485.6	4460.1	0.57
1987	1503.8	1487.1	-0.35	911.1	896.5	-0.31	592.7	590.6	-0.05	4757.1	4736.4	0.44
1988	1588.7	1594.1	0.11	955.5	958.5	0.06	633.2	635.5	0.05	5073.5	5100.4	-0.53
1989	1707.6	1725.5	0.33	1025.1	1038.0	0.24	682.5	687.5	0.09	5427.2	5482.2	-1.01
1990	1827.3	1820.7	-0.11	1088.9	1082.8	-0.11	738.4	738.0	-0.01	5807.4	5800.5	0.12
1991	1979.9	1891.3	-1.43	1173.6	1101.9	-1.16	806.3	789.4	-0.27	6179.1	5992.1	3.03
1992	2075.8	1994.2	-1.26	1216.8	1148.0	-1.06	859.1	846.2	-0.20	6489.5	6342.3	2.27
1993	2186.1	2112.2	-1.09	1286.4	1224.1	-0.92	899.7	888.2	-0.17	6808.6	6667.3	2.07
1994	2309.3	2267.0	-0.59	1358.9	1322.1	-0.51	950.4	944.8	-0.08	7147.0	7085.2	0.87
1995	2445.8	2399.7	-0.61	1445.4	1407.8	-0.50	1000.4	991.9	-0.11	7510.1	7414.7	1.27
1996	2603.0	2571.5	-0.40	1552.7	1526.4	-0.33	1050.3	1045.1	-0.07	7886.6	7838.5	0.61
1997	2737.4	2755.6	0.22	1641.9	1656.2	0.17	1095.5	1099.5	0.05	8282.2	8332.4	-0.61
1998	2887.5	2942.4	0.63	1734.8	1777.9	0.50	1152.8	1164.5	0.14	8658.1	8793.5	-1.56
1999	3035.5	3135.4	1.10	1818.1	1895.0	0.84	1217.4	1240.4	0.25	9092.6	9353.5	-2.87
2000	3252.1	3379.7	1.33	1959.6	2057.1	1.01	1292.6	1322.6	0.31	9626.8	9951.5	-3.37
2001	3376.8	3394.3	0.17	2010.8	2020.3	0.09	1366.0	1374.0	0.08	10212.0	10286.2	-0.73
2002	3341.9	3272.0	-0.65	1922.5	1859.3	-0.59	1419.4	1412.7	-0.06	10736.8	10642.3	0.88
2003	3486.1	3381.4	-0.93	1977.8	1885.1	-0.82	1508.3	1496.3	-0.11	11305.6	11142.1	1.45
2004	3667.7	3614.9	-0.44	2062.2	2013.9	-0.40	1605.5	1601.0	-0.04	11934.6	11867.8	0.56
2005	4035.9	4020.5	-0.12	2305.6	2290.1	-0.12	1730.3	1730.4	0.00	12634.4	12638.4	-0.03
2006	4352.4	4354.2	0.01	2524.7	2524.5	-0.00	1827.8	1829.7	0.01	13369.5	13398.9	-0.22
2007	4613.6	4588.1	-0.18	2682.5	2660.8	-0.15	1931.1	1927.3	-0.03	14105.0	14077.6	0.19
2008	4572.5	4449.2	-0.83	2572.2	2475.0	-0.66	2000.3	1974.2	-0.18	14767.2	14441.4	2.21
2009	4618.8	4226.3	-2.57	2547.9	2233.2	-2.06	2070.9	1993.1	-0.51	15276.1	14258.2	6.66

Return to Figure 3

Figure 3B: Estimates of Cyclical Expenditures by Government (Quaterly)

Quarter	General Government, HEB	General Government, ACT	General Government, CYC	Federal Government, HEB	Federal Government, ACT	Federal Government, CYC	State & Local Government*, HEB	State & Local Government*, ACT	State & Local Government*, CYC	GDP, HEB	GDP, ACT	GDP, GAP
1970, Q1	299.7	296.8	-0.28	192.4	189.9	-0.25	107.2	106.9	-0.03	1020.2	1017.1	0.30
1970, Q2	317.2	315.3	-0.19	206.1	204.4	-0.16	111.1	110.9	-0.02	1043.6	1033.1	1.01
1970, Q3	321.0	319.6	-0.13	205.7	204.6	-0.11	115.3	115.1	-0.02	1060.4	1050.5	0.93
1970, Q4	326.9	326.5	-0.04	207.8	207.4	-0.03	119.2	119.1	-0.01	1082.4	1052.7	2.75
1971, Q1	336.0	336.1	0.01	212.4	212.5	0.01	123.6	123.5	-0.00	1107.1	1098.1	0.82
1971, Q2	348.5	349.1	0.06	221.4	222.0	0.06	127.1	127.1	0.00	1130.3	1118.8	1.02
1971, Q3	351.5	351.8	0.02	220.8	221.5	0.06	130.7	130.2	-0.04	1150.1	1139.1	0.96
1971, Q4	359.3	359.2	-0.01	225.6	226.3	0.06	133.7	132.9	-0.06	1167.8	1151.4	1.41
1972, Q1	374.2	375.4	0.10	237.2	237.2	0.00	137.0	138.1	0.10	1195.7	1190.1	0.46
1972, Q2	386.6	386.7	0.00	246.0	245.9	-0.01	140.6	140.7	0.01	1211.6	1225.6	-1.15
1972, Q3	383.1	382.6	-0.04	238.3	237.8	-0.04	144.9	144.8	-0.01	1232.0	1249.3	-1.40
1972, Q4	408.6	407.4	-0.09	260.9	259.8	-0.09	147.7	147.6	-0.00	1256.2	1286.6	-2.42
1973, Q1	413.4	411.3	-0.17	261.1	259.2	-0.15	152.3	152.1	-0.02	1282.9	1335.1	-4.07
1973, Q2	422.4	419.8	-0.20	265.6	263.2	-0.18	156.8	156.6	-0.01	1315.2	1371.5	-4.28
1973, Q3	425.5	422.4	-0.23	264.6	261.9	-0.20	160.9	160.5	-0.03	1352.0	1390.7	-2.86
1973, Q4	434.8	431.6	-0.23	269.1	266.3	-0.20	165.7	165.3	-0.03	1387.4	1431.8	-3.20
1974, Q1	447.8	445.2	-0.19	278.8	276.5	-0.16	169.0	168.6	-0.03	1429.1	1446.5	-1.22
1974, Q2	466.6	464.6	-0.13	291.1	289.4	-0.11	175.6	175.2	-0.03	1474.8	1484.8	-0.68
1974, Q3	483.5	482.1	-0.09	301.2	300.1	-0.07	182.3	182.0	-0.02	1534.9	1513.7	1.38
1974, Q4	500.1	500.9	0.05	311.0	311.7	0.05	189.1	189.1	-0.00	1596.9	1552.8	2.76
1975, Q1	518.8	524.9	0.37	321.6	327.2	0.34	197.2	197.7	0.03	1648.3	1569.4	4.78
1975, Q2	546.0	556.4	0.61	341.8	351.3	0.57	204.3	205.1	0.05	1686.6	1605.0	4.84
1975, Q3	551.7	562.9	0.65	342.3	352.7	0.60	209.5	210.3	0.05	1732.2	1662.5	4.03
1975, Q4	566.1	577.4	0.63	351.5	361.9	0.58	214.6	215.5	0.05	1776.9	1713.9	3.54
1976, Q1	576.7	586.9	0.56	357.4	366.8	0.52	219.3	220.1	0.05	1810.8	1771.9	2.15
1976, Q2	584.5	593.1	0.47	361.6	369.4	0.43	222.9	223.7	0.05	1844.0	1804.2	2.16
1976, Q3	600.8	609.3	0.45	373.2	380.7	0.40	227.6	228.6	0.05	1883.1	1837.7	2.41
1976, Q4	614.1	622.5	0.44	382.2	389.7	0.39	232.0	232.8	0.05	1930.3	1884.5	2.37
1977, Q1	625.3	633.0	0.39	387.7	394.7	0.35	237.6	238.3	0.04	1978.5	1938.5	2.02
1977, Q2	642.1	647.2	0.25	398.0	402.7	0.23	244.0	244.5	0.02	2026.3	2005.2	1.04
1977, Q3	661.5	664.7	0.15	412.4	415.2	0.14	249.1	249.5	0.02	2071.3	2066.0	0.26
1977, Q4	680.3	682.7	0.11	425.6	427.8	0.10	254.7	254.9	0.01	2124.3	2110.8	0.63
1978, Q1	698.6	698.7	0.01	437.7	437.8	0.01	260.9	260.9	0.00	2178.1	2149.1	1.33
1978, Q2	713.0	712.0	-0.04	446.3	445.5	-0.04	266.6	266.5	-0.01	2240.3	2274.7	-1.54
1978, Q3	730.7	728.6	-0.09	458.4	457.2	-0.05	272.3	271.4	-0.04	2300.0	2335.2	-1.53
1978, Q4	750.9	748.0	-0.12	473.1	471.2	-0.08	277.8	276.8	-0.04	2368.3	2416.0	-2.02
1979, Q1	765.5	762.8	-0.11	480.4	478.5	-0.08	285.2	284.3	-0.04	2433.5	2463.3	-1.22
1979, Q2	781.7	780.7	-0.04	492.2	489.8	-0.10	289.5	290.9	0.05	2514.0	2526.4	-0.49
1979, Q3	808.8	806.5	-0.09	509.8	507.7	-0.08	299.0	298.9	-0.00	2586.5	2599.7	-0.51
1979, Q4	837.5	834.9	-0.10	529.5	527.5	-0.07	308.1	307.4	-0.02	2656.8	2659.4	-0.10
1980, Q1	869.4	869.0	-0.01	552.3	551.7	-0.02	317.2	317.3	0.01	2732.2	2724.1	0.30
1980, Q2	893.1	896.7	0.13	569.5	572.6	0.11	323.7	324.0	0.01	2808.3	2728.0	2.86
1980, Q3	933.2	940.1	0.24	599.8	606.1	0.22	333.4	334.0	0.02	2886.6	2785.2	3.51
1980, Q4	962.5	969.5	0.24	621.0	627.3	0.21	341.5	342.2	0.02	2982.4	2915.3	2.25
1981, Q1	994.9	1001.5	0.21	644.0	649.7	0.19	351.0	351.8	0.03	3076.2	3051.4	0.81
1981, Q2	1017.6	1023.5	0.19	658.5	663.4	0.15	359.1	360.0	0.03	3149.0	3084.3	2.06
1981, Q3	1047.9	1053.4	0.17	682.6	687.0	0.14	365.3	366.4	0.03	3226.9	3177.0	1.55
1981, Q4	1070.5	1079.1	0.26	699.6	706.6	0.21	371.0	372.5	0.05	3305.4	3194.7	3.35
1982, Q1	1089.8	1102.4	0.37	710.3	721.0	0.32	379.5	381.5	0.06	3377.0	3184.9	5.69
1982, Q2	1105.8	1123.4	0.51	717.6	732.9	0.44	388.2	390.6	0.07	3445.1	3241.0	5.93
1982, Q3	1138.0	1157.6	0.56	743.1	759.9	0.48	394.9	397.7	0.08	3520.1	3274.4	6.98
1982, Q4	1178.4	1201.6	0.65	776.9	796.8	0.55	401.4	404.8	0.09	3585.0	3312.5	7.60
1983, Q1	1190.8	1214.4	0.65	779.4	799.4	0.55	411.5	415.0	0.10	3642.3	3381.0	7.17
1983, Q2	1219.3	1241.9	0.61	802.3	821.3	0.51	417.1	420.6	0.10	3695.2	3482.2	5.76
1983, Q3	1240.8	1257.6	0.45	817.4	831.0	0.36	423.4	426.6	0.09	3759.6	3587.1	4.59
1983, Q4	1246.6	1259.0	0.33	816.7	826.4	0.25	429.9	432.7	0.07	3814.2	3688.1	3.31
1984, Q1	1284.0	1293.3	0.24	843.6	850.5	0.18	440.5	442.8	0.06	3890.6	3807.4	2.14
1984, Q2	1317.5	1324.8	0.18	868.0	873.5	0.14	449.5	451.4	0.05	3956.4	3906.3	1.27
1984, Q3	1341.7	1348.4	0.17	882.7	887.9	0.13	459.0	460.5	0.04	4020.8	3976.0	1.12
1984, Q4	1378.2	1384.1	0.15	909.1	913.9	0.12	469.0	470.2	0.03	4078.0	4034.0	1.08
1985, Q1	1408.1	1413.3	0.13	927.0	931.5	0.11	481.1	481.9	0.02	4159.5	4117.2	1.02
1985, Q2	1432.9	1438.0	0.12	941.2	945.6	0.10	491.7	492.4	0.02	4216.5	4175.7	0.97
1985, Q3	1460.2	1464.7	0.10	956.4	960.3	0.09	503.8	504.4	0.01	4272.6	4258.3	0.33
1985, Q4	1487.5	1490.9	0.08	971.9	974.7	0.07	515.7	516.2	0.01	4335.2	4318.7	0.38
1986, Q1	1506.6	1510.4	0.09	981.4	984.7	0.07	525.2	525.8	0.01	4393.2	4382.4	0.25
1986, Q2	1538.4	1544.0	0.12	1004.7	1009.4	0.11	533.8	534.6	0.02	4451.0	4423.3	0.62
1986, Q3	1567.8	1573.1	0.12	1024.0	1028.5	0.10	543.7	544.6	0.02	4514.9	4491.3	0.52
1986, Q4	1574.4	1578.7	0.09	1016.5	1020.0	0.08	557.9	558.7	0.02	4583.4	4543.3	0.88
1987, Q1	1589.5	1592.6	0.07	1024.8	1027.2	0.05	564.7	565.4	0.01	4655.5	4611.1	0.95
1987, Q2	1614.9	1616.3	0.03	1041.1	1042.1	0.02	573.8	574.2	0.01	4717.9	4686.7	0.66
1987, Q3	1627.4	1627.0	-0.01	1045.3	1044.8	-0.01	582.1	582.2	0.00	4791.7	4764.5	0.57
1987, Q4	1663.0	1662.0	-0.02	1070.4	1069.4	-0.02	592.6	592.6	-0.00	4863.1	4883.1	-0.41
1988, Q1	1692.4	1690.1	-0.05	1088.6	1086.6	-0.04	603.7	603.5	-0.01	4939.8	4948.6	-0.18
1988, Q2	1702.3	1698.6	-0.07	1088.3	1085.2	-0.06	614.1	613.5	-0.01	5025.5	5059.3	-0.67
1988, Q3	1720.0	1716.1	-0.08	1096.9	1093.6	-0.06	623.2	622.5	-0.01	5123.9	5142.8	-0.37
1988, Q4	1761.3	1756.2	-0.10	1126.6	1122.4	-0.08	634.7	633.7	-0.02	5204.6	5251.0	-0.89
1989, Q1	1796.8	1790.9	-0.11	1148.5	1143.8	-0.09	648.3	647.1	-0.02	5299.0	5360.3	-1.16
1989, Q2	1830.2	1824.1	-0.11	1168.6	1163.7	-0.09	661.6	660.4	-0.02	5392.6	5453.6	-1.13
1989, Q3	1860.9	1855.7	-0.10	1186.6	1182.6	-0.07	674.3	673.1	-0.02	5470.5	5532.9	-1.14
1989, Q4	1890.7	1886.7	-0.07	1200.9	1197.8	-0.05	689.8	688.8	-0.02	5546.6	5581.7	-0.63
1990, Q1	1942.4	1937.8	-0.08	1235.1	1231.5	-0.06	707.3	706.2	-0.02	5656.0	5708.1	-0.92
1990, Q2	1979.0	1974.2	-0.08	1256.8	1253.0	-0.07	722.2	721.2	-0.02	5764.1	5797.4	-0.58
1990, Q3	2005.0	2003.5	-0.03	1264.9	1264.0	-0.02	740.1	739.5	-0.01	5859.7	5850.6	0.15
1990, Q4	2045.6	2048.5	0.05	1285.4	1288.3	0.05	760.2	760.2	-0.00	5949.7	5846.0	1.74
1991, Q1	2014.0	2021.7	0.13	1243.9	1250.8	0.11	770.2	770.9	0.01	6054.6	5880.2	2.88
1991, Q2	2088.9	2099.9	0.18	1303.0	1312.7	0.16	785.9	787.2	0.02	6137.6	5962.0	2.86
1991, Q3	2133.7	2145.5	0.19	1335.0	1345.1	0.16	798.7	800.4	0.03	6224.3	6033.7	3.06
1991, Q4	2181.0	2195.2	0.22	1361.2	1372.8	0.18	819.8	822.4	0.04	6299.7	6092.5	3.29
1992, Q1	2228.8	2247.1	0.29	1406.0	1421.0	0.24	822.8	826.1	0.05	6375.6	6190.7	2.90
1992, Q2	2262.6	2284.1	0.33	1423.7	1441.3	0.27	838.8	842.8	0.06	6454.3	6295.2	2.47
1992, Q3	2295.6	2318.2	0.35	1441.6	1459.7	0.28	854.0	858.5	0.07	6524.4	6389.7	2.06
1992, Q4	2321.9	2343.1	0.32	1463.2	1480.0	0.26	858.7	863.1	0.07	6603.7	6493.6	1.67
1993, Q1	2339.6	2358.6	0.28	1469.5	1484.3	0.22	870.0	874.2	0.06	6687.9	6544.5	2.14
1993, Q2	2356.0	2374.5	0.27	1479.6	1494.0	0.21	876.4	880.6	0.06	6769.2	6622.7	2.16
1993, Q3	2389.2	2405.5	0.24	1495.9	1508.3	0.18	893.3	897.2	0.06	6847.1	6688.3	2.32
1993, Q4	2420.8	2435.1	0.21	1519.6	1530.6	0.16	901.2	904.4	0.05	6930.0	6813.8	1.68
1994, Q1	2418.5	2431.7	0.19	1502.7	1513.0	0.15	915.8	918.7	0.04	7016.6	6916.3	1.43
1994, Q2	2445.3	2454.7	0.13	1518.8	1526.1	0.10	926.5	928.5	0.03	7100.1	7044.3	0.79
1994, Q3	2485.5	2492.0	0.09	1547.6	1552.7	0.07	937.8	939.3	0.02	7190.7	7131.8	0.82
1994, Q4	2535.8	2538.1	0.03	1576.7	1578.2	0.02	959.1	959.8	0.01	7280.6	7248.2	0.44
1995, Q1	2573.7	2574.2	0.01	1600.2	1600.4	0.00	973.5	973.7	0.00	7377.2	7307.7	0.94
1995, Q2	2594.7	2596.7	0.03	1611.7	1613.4	0.02	983.0	983.3	0.00	7464.4	7355.8	1.45
1995, Q3	2611.0	2613.8	0.04	1621.7	1624.3	0.03	989.3	989.5	0.00	7551.6	7452.5	1.31
1995, Q4	2600.2	2602.2	0.03	1615.9	1617.9	0.03	984.3	984.3	0.00	7647.1	7542.5	1.37
1996, Q1	2663.3	2664.3	0.01	1661.0	1662.0	0.01	1002.4	1002.3	-0.00	7746.5	7638.2	1.40
1996, Q2	2696.4	2697.5	0.01	1670.3	1671.4	0.01	1026.1	1026.1	-0.00	7834.3	7800.0	0.44
1996, Q3	2698.4	2698.4	-0.00	1672.1	1672.1	0.00	1026.3	1026.3	-0.00	7933.6	7892.7	0.52
1996, Q4	2726.7	2727.0	0.00	1693.1	1693.3	0.00	1033.6	1033.8	0.00	8031.8	8023.0	0.11
1997, Q1	2746.0	2745.7	-0.00	1698.4	1698.0	-0.01	1047.6	1047.7	0.00	8136.0	8137.0	-0.01
1997, Q2	2767.1	2764.9	-0.03	1714.2	1712.2	-0.02	1052.9	1052.7	-0.00	8237.6	8276.8	-0.48
1997, Q3	2783.9	2780.4	-0.04	1716.1	1713.0	-0.04	1067.8	1067.4	-0.01	8327.4	8409.9	-0.99
1997, Q4	2832.7	2826.9	-0.07	1746.9	1741.9	-0.06	1085.8	1085.0	-0.01	8427.7	8505.7	-0.93
1998, Q1	2828.1	2820.4	-0.09	1732.6	1726.1	-0.08	1095.5	1094.3	-0.01	8510.7	8600.6	-1.06
1998, Q2	2859.6	2849.2	-0.12	1748.2	1739.5	-0.10	1111.4	1109.6	-0.02	8603.9	8698.6	-1.10
1998, Q3	2875.4	2865.6	-0.11	1751.4	1743.4	-0.09	1124.0	1122.3	-0.02	8709.9	8847.2	-1.58
1998, Q4	2923.1	2912.4	-0.12	1776.8	1768.1	-0.10	1146.4	1144.2	-0.02	8807.9	9027.5	-2.49
1999, Q1	2952.0	2939.5	-0.14	1783.3	1773.2	-0.11	1168.7	1166.3	-0.03	8921.7	9148.6	-2.54
1999, Q2	2973.2	2960.3	-0.14	1786.7	1776.3	-0.11	1186.5	1184.0	-0.03	9036.5	9252.6	-2.39
1999, Q3	3025.2	3011.2	-0.15	1811.2	1799.9	-0.12	1214.0	1211.3	-0.03	9147.0	9405.1	-2.82
1999, Q4	3083.7	3068.0	-0.17	1847.9	1835.2	-0.14	1235.8	1232.8	-0.03	9265.2	9607.7	-3.70
2000, Q1	3092.9	3075.6	-0.18	1841.9	1827.7	-0.15	1251.1	1248.0	-0.03	9418.7	9709.5	-3.09
2000, Q2	3161.6	3142.9	-0.20	1887.6	1872.2	-0.16	1274.1	1270.7	-0.04	9552.9	9949.1	-4.15
2000, Q3	3193.7	3176.0	-0.18	1897.2	1882.9	-0.15	1296.5	1293.1	-0.03	9698.0	10017.5	-3.29
2000, Q4	3237.2	3218.6	-0.19	1920.0	1905.0	-0.15	1317.2	1313.6	-0.04	9837.6	10129.8	-2.97
2001, Q1	3310.8	3295.8	-0.15	1954.4	1942.5	-0.12	1356.4	1353.2	-0.03	9998.1	10165.1	-1.67
2001, Q2	3373.7	3362.4	-0.11	1976.4	1968.0	-0.08	1397.3	1394.4	-0.03	10160.3	10301.3	-1.39
2001, Q3	3390.5	3385.9	-0.05	2002.1	1999.3	-0.03	1388.5	1386.6	-0.02	10284.8	10305.2	-0.20
2001, Q4	3428.7	3434.8	0.06	2003.1	2009.3	0.06	1425.6	1425.5	-0.00	10404.8	10373.1	0.30
2002, Q1	3490.1	3502.2	0.12	2054.4	2065.4	0.10	1435.7	1436.8	0.01	10531.1	10498.7	0.31
2002, Q2	3547.0	3561.1	0.13	2096.2	2108.1	0.11	1450.8	1453.1	0.02	10666.0	10601.9	0.60
2002, Q3	3581.8	3595.3	0.13	2108.4	2118.8	0.10	1473.4	1476.5	0.03	10800.4	10701.7	0.91
2002, Q4	3640.5	3656.9	0.15	2144.2	2156.2	0.11	1496.3	1500.7	0.04	10949.7	10766.9	1.67
2003, Q1	3689.0	3709.1	0.18	2171.9	2186.9	0.13	1517.2	1522.3	0.05	11113.4	10888.4	2.02
2003, Q2	3777.5	3803.3	0.23	2257.9	2277.8	0.18	1519.6	1525.5	0.05	11228.4	11008.1	1.96
2003, Q3	3797.9	3823.5	0.23	2259.2	2278.8	0.17	1538.7	1544.7	0.05	11370.9	11255.7	1.01
2003, Q4	3830.2	3850.5	0.18	2287.2	2302.4	0.13	1543.0	1548.1	0.04	11509.8	11416.5	0.81
2004, Q1	3914.5	3931.5	0.15	2341.2	2353.7	0.11	1573.3	1577.9	0.04	11683.7	11597.2	0.74
2004, Q2	3959.5	3974.6	0.13	2362.3	2373.4	0.09	1597.2	1601.2	0.03	11857.6	11778.4	0.67
2004, Q3	4008.2	4020.1	0.10	2396.9	2405.8	0.07	1611.4	1614.3	0.02	12017.6	11950.6	0.56
2004, Q4	4074.0	4084.7	0.09	2432.4	2440.8	0.07	1641.6	1643.9	0.02	12179.5	12144.9	0.28
2005, Q1	4176.7	4185.2	0.07	2512.7	2519.6	0.06	1664.1	1665.6	0.01	12366.8	12379.5	-0.10
2005, Q2	4236.1	4240.8	0.04	2541.2	2545.4	0.03	1694.9	1695.4	0.00	12525.4	12516.8	0.07
2005, Q3	4307.1	4308.8	0.01	2591.0	2592.8	0.01	1716.1	1716.0	-0.00	12730.5	12741.6	-0.09
2005, Q4	4374.6	4375.6	0.01	2632.8	2634.6	0.01	1741.8	1741.0	-0.01	12914.9	12915.6	-0.01
2006, Q1	4423.1	4419.2	-0.03	2683.5	2681.1	-0.02	1739.6	1738.0	-0.01	13091.1	13183.5	-0.71
2006, Q2	4503.4	4498.2	-0.04	2734.4	2731.2	-0.02	1768.9	1767.0	-0.01	13289.7	13347.8	-0.44
2006, Q3	4569.8	4562.9	-0.05	2767.3	2762.9	-0.03	1802.5	1800.1	-0.02	13474.8	13452.9	0.16
2006, Q4	4556.3	4547.5	-0.06	2743.8	2738.1	-0.04	1812.5	1809.4	-0.02	13622.2	13611.5	0.08
2007, Q1	4720.3	4710.5	-0.07	2847.5	2841.0	-0.05	1872.8	1869.5	-0.02	13852.7	13795.6	0.41
2007, Q2	4778.8	4769.8	-0.06	2887.1	2881.3	-0.04	1891.7	1888.4	-0.02	14033.7	13997.2	0.26
2007, Q3	4835.4	4830.4	-0.04	2920.9	2918.7	-0.02	1914.5	1911.7	-0.02	14180.9	14179.9	0.01
2007, Q4	4903.1	4900.8	-0.02	2947.8	2947.9	0.00	1955.3	1952.9	-0.02	14352.8	14337.9	0.10
2008, Q1	5006.0	5008.0	0.01	3020.4	3024.2	0.03	1985.6	1983.8	-0.01	14510.5	14373.9	0.94
2008, Q2	5179.5	5188.8	0.06	3159.7	3169.0	0.06	2019.8	2019.8	-0.00	14666.3	14497.8	1.15
2008, Q3	5178.2	5201.8	0.16	3134.6	3155.2	0.14	2043.6	2046.5	0.02	14901.0	14546.7	2.38
2008, Q4	5087.0	5129.4	0.28	3086.0	3121.9	0.24	2001.1	2007.5	0.04	14991.1	14347.3	4.29
2009, Q1	5150.6	5218.3	0.45	3164.4	3220.3	0.37	1986.2	1998.0	0.08	15144.0	14178.0	6.38
2009, Q2	5426.1	5519.8	0.62	3430.2	3505.9	0.50	1995.9	2013.9	0.12	15221.1	14151.2	7.03
2009, Q3	5455.3	5560.7	0.69	3459.0	3542.1	0.54	1996.3	2018.6	0.15	15314.4	14242.1	7.00
2009, Q4	5467.0	5583.1	0.75	3466.2	3555.2	0.58	2000.8	2027.9	0.18	15425.0	14461.7	6.25

Return to Figure 3

Figure 3B: Estimates of Cyclical Expenditures by Government (Calendar Years)

Calendar Year	General Government, HEB	General Government, ACT	General Government, CYC	Federal Government, HEB	Federal Government, ACT	Federal Government, CYC	State & Local Government*, HEB	State & Local Government*, ACT	State & Local Government*, CYC	GDP, HEB	GDP, ACT	GDP, GAP
1970	316.2	314.6	-0.16	203.0	201.6	-0.14	113.2	113.0	-0.02	1051.7	1038.3	1.27
1971	348.8	349.0	0.02	220.1	220.6	0.05	128.8	128.5	-0.03	1138.8	1126.8	1.05
1972	388.1	388.0	-0.01	245.6	245.2	-0.03	142.5	142.8	0.02	1223.9	1237.9	-1.14
1973	424.0	421.3	-0.21	265.1	262.6	-0.19	158.9	158.6	-0.02	1334.4	1382.3	-3.59
1974	474.5	473.2	-0.09	295.5	294.5	-0.07	179.0	178.7	-0.02	1508.9	1499.4	0.63
1975	545.7	555.4	0.57	339.3	348.3	0.53	206.4	207.1	0.04	1711.0	1637.7	4.28
1976	594.0	603.0	0.48	368.6	376.7	0.43	225.4	226.3	0.05	1867.1	1824.6	2.27
1977	652.3	656.9	0.22	405.9	410.1	0.20	246.4	246.8	0.02	2050.1	2030.1	0.97
1978	723.3	721.8	-0.06	453.9	452.9	-0.04	269.4	268.9	-0.02	2271.7	2293.8	-0.97
1979	798.4	796.2	-0.09	503.0	500.9	-0.08	295.4	295.4	-0.00	2547.7	2562.2	-0.57
1980	914.5	918.8	0.15	585.6	589.4	0.13	328.9	329.4	0.02	2852.4	2788.1	2.25
1981	1032.7	1039.4	0.21	671.2	676.7	0.17	361.6	362.7	0.03	3189.4	3126.8	1.96
1982	1128.0	1146.3	0.52	737.0	752.6	0.45	391.0	393.6	0.08	3481.8	3253.2	6.57
1983	1224.4	1243.2	0.51	803.9	819.5	0.42	420.4	423.7	0.09	3727.8	3534.6	5.18
1984	1330.4	1337.7	0.18	875.9	881.5	0.14	454.5	456.2	0.04	3986.5	3930.9	1.39
1985	1447.2	1451.7	0.11	949.1	953.0	0.09	498.1	498.7	0.02	4246.0	4217.5	0.67
1986	1546.8	1551.6	0.11	1006.7	1010.7	0.09	540.1	540.9	0.02	4485.6	4460.1	0.57
1987	1623.7	1624.5	0.02	1045.4	1045.9	0.01	578.3	578.6	0.01	4757.1	4736.4	0.44
1988	1719.0	1715.2	-0.07	1100.1	1096.9	-0.06	618.9	618.3	-0.01	5073.5	5100.4	-0.53
1989	1844.6	1839.3	-0.10	1176.2	1172.0	-0.08	668.5	667.4	-0.02	5427.2	5482.2	-1.01
1990	1993.0	1991.0	-0.03	1260.5	1259.2	-0.02	732.4	731.8	-0.01	5807.4	5800.5	0.12
1991	2104.4	2115.6	0.18	1310.7	1320.3	0.16	793.6	795.2	0.03	6179.1	5992.1	3.03
1992	2277.2	2298.1	0.32	1433.6	1450.5	0.26	843.6	847.6	0.06	6489.5	6342.3	2.27
1993	2376.4	2393.4	0.25	1491.2	1504.3	0.19	885.2	889.1	0.06	6808.6	6667.3	2.07
1994	2471.2	2479.1	0.11	1536.4	1542.5	0.08	934.8	936.6	0.03	7147.0	7085.2	0.87
1995	2594.9	2596.7	0.02	1612.4	1614.0	0.02	982.5	982.7	0.00	7510.1	7414.7	1.27
1996	2696.2	2696.8	0.01	1674.1	1674.7	0.01	1022.1	1022.1	0.00	7886.6	7838.5	0.61
1997	2782.4	2779.5	-0.04	1718.9	1716.3	-0.03	1063.5	1063.2	-0.00	8282.2	8332.4	-0.61
1998	2871.5	2861.9	-0.11	1752.2	1744.3	-0.09	1119.3	1117.6	-0.02	8658.1	8793.5	-1.56
1999	3008.5	2994.8	-0.15	1807.3	1796.2	-0.12	1201.3	1198.6	-0.03	9092.6	9353.5	-2.87
2000	3171.4	3153.3	-0.19	1886.7	1871.9	-0.15	1284.7	1281.3	-0.03	9626.8	9951.5	-3.37
2001	3375.9	3369.7	-0.06	1984.0	1979.8	-0.04	1392.0	1389.9	-0.02	10212.0	10286.2	-0.73
2002	3564.8	3578.9	0.13	2100.8	2112.1	0.11	1464.1	1466.8	0.03	10736.8	10642.3	0.88
2003	3773.7	3796.6	0.20	2244.0	2261.5	0.15	1529.6	1535.1	0.05	11305.6	11142.1	1.45
2004	3989.1	4002.7	0.11	2383.2	2393.4	0.09	1605.9	1609.3	0.03	11934.6	11867.8	0.56
2005	4273.6	4277.6	0.03	2569.4	2573.1	0.03	1704.2	1704.5	0.00	12634.4	12638.4	-0.03
2006	4513.1	4506.9	-0.05	2732.2	2728.3	-0.03	1780.9	1778.6	-0.02	13369.5	13398.9	-0.22
2007	4809.4	4802.9	-0.05	2900.8	2897.2	-0.03	1908.6	1905.6	-0.02	14105.0	14077.6	0.19
2008	5112.7	5132.0	0.13	3100.2	3117.6	0.12	2012.5	2014.4	0.01	14767.2	14441.4	2.21
2009	5374.8	5470.5	0.63	3379.9	3455.9	0.50	1994.8	2014.6	0.13	15276.1	14258.2	6.66

Return to Figure 3

Figure 3C: Estimates of Cyclical Deficits by Government (Quaterly)

Quarter	General Government, HEB	General Government, ACT	General Government, CYC	Federal Government, HEB	Federal Government, ACT	Federal Government, CYC	State & Local Government*, HEB	State & Local Government*, ACT	State & Local Government*, CYC	GDP, HEB	GDP, ACT	GDP, GAP
1970, Q1	-1.8	5.7	0.73	-9.8	-2.5	0.71	8.0	8.2	0.02	1020.2	1017.1	0.30
1970, Q2	-12.0	-8.5	0.34	-20.2	-16.2	0.38	8.1	7.7	-0.04	1043.6	1033.1	1.01
1970, Q3	-14.2	-12.6	0.15	-21.8	-19.7	0.20	7.6	7.1	-0.05	1060.4	1050.5	0.93
1970, Q4	-12.8	-18.1	-0.49	-20.0	-23.5	-0.32	7.2	5.4	-0.17	1082.4	1052.7	2.75
1971, Q1	-17.5	-18.9	-0.13	-23.1	-23.9	-0.07	5.6	5.0	-0.06	1107.1	1098.1	0.82
1971, Q2	-22.0	-24.4	-0.21	-28.8	-30.4	-0.14	6.8	6.0	-0.07	1130.3	1118.8	1.02
1971, Q3	-20.2	-23.0	-0.24	-27.0	-29.5	-0.21	6.8	6.5	-0.03	1150.1	1139.1	0.96
1971, Q4	-19.1	-22.6	-0.30	-27.8	-31.0	-0.28	8.7	8.4	-0.02	1167.8	1151.4	1.41
1972, Q1	-11.5	-13.8	-0.19	-22.2	-22.9	-0.06	10.7	9.1	-0.13	1195.7	1190.1	0.46
1972, Q2	-13.5	-9.5	0.33	-31.4	-28.2	0.26	17.9	18.7	0.06	1211.6	1225.6	-1.15
1972, Q3	-12.7	-7.0	0.46	-21.6	-17.1	0.36	8.8	10.1	0.10	1232.0	1249.3	-1.40
1972, Q4	-16.7	-6.7	0.79	-39.1	-31.4	0.62	22.4	24.6	0.18	1256.2	1286.6	-2.42
1973, Q1	-14.5	3.7	1.42	-29.5	-15.2	1.12	15.1	18.9	0.30	1282.9	1335.1	-4.07
1973, Q2	-20.1	0.5	1.56	-31.7	-15.2	1.25	11.6	15.7	0.31	1315.2	1371.5	-4.28
1973, Q3	-13.3	4.0	1.28	-24.6	-10.6	1.03	11.3	14.6	0.24	1352.0	1390.7	-2.86
1973, Q4	-10.1	7.4	1.26	-20.0	-6.2	1.00	9.9	13.6	0.26	1387.4	1431.8	-3.20
1974, Q1	-6.9	2.9	0.68	-16.9	-8.9	0.56	10.0	11.8	0.13	1429.1	1446.5	-1.22
1974, Q2	-5.6	-0.8	0.33	-15.2	-11.4	0.25	9.5	10.6	0.07	1474.8	1484.8	-0.68
1974, Q3	2.9	-1.3	-0.27	-8.2	-11.3	-0.20	11.1	10.0	-0.07	1534.9	1513.7	1.38
1974, Q4	-7.1	-21.5	-0.90	-15.0	-26.4	-0.71	7.9	4.9	-0.19	1596.9	1552.8	2.76
1975, Q1	-18.0	-47.9	-1.81	-24.6	-48.5	-1.45	6.6	0.6	-0.36	1648.3	1569.4	4.78
1975, Q2	-67.4	-103.2	-2.12	-76.6	-105.8	-1.73	9.2	2.6	-0.39	1686.6	1605.0	4.84
1975, Q3	-23.1	-60.1	-2.14	-32.6	-63.7	-1.80	9.5	3.6	-0.34	1732.2	1662.5	4.03
1975, Q4	-26.0	-61.5	-2.00	-34.6	-64.6	-1.69	8.6	3.1	-0.31	1776.9	1713.9	3.54
1976, Q1	-23.5	-48.6	-1.39	-32.8	-54.3	-1.19	9.3	5.7	-0.20	1810.8	1771.9	2.15
1976, Q2	-21.6	-43.5	-1.19	-31.6	-50.0	-1.00	10.0	6.5	-0.19	1844.0	1804.2	2.16
1976, Q3	-24.4	-47.2	-1.21	-34.6	-53.6	-1.00	10.2	6.3	-0.21	1883.1	1837.7	2.41
1976, Q4	-22.5	-45.8	-1.21	-37.5	-56.8	-1.00	14.9	11.0	-0.20	1930.3	1884.5	2.37
1977, Q1	-17.3	-37.6	-1.03	-30.5	-47.2	-0.85	13.1	9.6	-0.18	1978.5	1938.5	2.02
1977, Q2	-17.1	-29.5	-0.61	-31.0	-41.3	-0.51	13.9	11.8	-0.10	2026.3	2005.2	1.04
1977, Q3	-27.3	-31.6	-0.21	-43.7	-47.3	-0.17	16.5	15.7	-0.04	2071.3	2066.0	0.26
1977, Q4	-27.7	-33.3	-0.26	-44.3	-48.7	-0.21	16.6	15.5	-0.05	2124.3	2110.8	0.63
1978, Q1	-25.6	-31.7	-0.28	-44.4	-48.6	-0.19	18.9	16.9	-0.09	2178.1	2149.1	1.33
1978, Q2	-15.8	-4.8	0.49	-36.5	-27.9	0.38	20.7	23.1	0.10	2240.3	2274.7	-1.54
1978, Q3	-21.3	-5.9	0.67	-34.1	-21.9	0.53	12.8	16.1	0.14	2300.0	2335.2	-1.53
1978, Q4	-20.5	1.5	0.93	-34.9	-17.2	0.75	14.4	18.7	0.18	2368.3	2416.0	-2.02
1979, Q1	-16.8	5.8	0.93	-27.9	-8.7	0.79	11.1	14.5	0.14	2433.5	2463.3	-1.22
1979, Q2	-11.3	3.0	0.57	-23.6	-8.9	0.58	12.3	11.9	-0.02	2514.0	2526.4	-0.49
1979, Q3	-14.4	-0.7	0.53	-27.3	-14.6	0.49	12.9	13.9	0.04	2586.5	2599.7	-0.51
1979, Q4	-20.7	-12.0	0.33	-31.6	-23.6	0.30	10.9	11.6	0.03	2656.8	2659.4	-0.10
1980, Q1	-24.5	-23.1	0.05	-36.0	-33.7	0.09	11.6	10.6	-0.03	2732.2	2724.1	0.30
1980, Q2	-28.7	-52.1	-0.83	-40.3	-57.6	-0.62	11.6	5.5	-0.22	2808.3	2728.0	2.86
1980, Q3	-23.8	-64.3	-1.40	-39.6	-71.8	-1.11	15.8	7.5	-0.29	2886.6	2785.2	3.51
1980, Q4	-13.6	-51.9	-1.28	-31.0	-63.4	-1.09	17.4	11.5	-0.20	2982.4	2915.3	2.25
1981, Q1	-1.7	-30.9	-0.95	-16.5	-42.6	-0.85	14.8	11.7	-0.10	3076.2	3051.4	0.81
1981, Q2	-2.1	-38.8	-1.17	-15.7	-46.9	-0.99	13.6	8.0	-0.18	3149.0	3084.3	2.06
1981, Q3	-13.7	-47.0	-1.03	-25.7	-54.6	-0.90	12.1	7.7	-0.14	3226.9	3177.0	1.55
1981, Q4	-27.7	-80.2	-1.59	-39.6	-83.0	-1.31	12.0	2.8	-0.28	3305.4	3194.7	3.35
1982, Q1	-23.0	-104.5	-2.42	-39.4	-103.9	-1.91	16.4	-0.7	-0.51	3377.0	3184.9	5.69
1982, Q2	-14.9	-110.9	-2.78	-31.8	-109.4	-2.25	16.9	-1.4	-0.53	3445.1	3241.0	5.93
1982, Q3	-35.4	-149.8	-3.25	-55.4	-147.2	-2.61	20.0	-2.6	-0.64	3520.1	3274.4	6.98
1982, Q4	-54.9	-184.7	-3.62	-76.3	-180.7	-2.91	21.5	-4.0	-0.71	3585.0	3312.5	7.60
1983, Q1	-58.0	-183.8	-3.45	-74.4	-176.4	-2.80	16.4	-7.4	-0.65	3642.3	3381.0	7.17
1983, Q2	-52.7	-169.7	-3.17	-76.2	-172.7	-2.61	23.5	3.0	-0.56	3695.2	3482.2	5.76
1983, Q3	-82.8	-179.2	-2.56	-109.6	-188.9	-2.11	26.8	9.8	-0.45	3759.6	3587.1	4.59
1983, Q4	-76.8	-152.8	-1.99	-103.6	-167.0	-1.66	26.8	14.2	-0.33	3814.2	3688.1	3.31
1984, Q1	-81.7	-134.5	-1.36	-112.7	-157.0	-1.14	31.0	22.5	-0.22	3890.6	3807.4	2.14
1984, Q2	-103.1	-140.5	-0.95	-135.1	-167.3	-0.81	32.0	26.7	-0.13	3956.4	3906.3	1.27
1984, Q3	-123.1	-154.1	-0.77	-148.7	-175.2	-0.66	25.6	21.1	-0.11	4020.8	3976.0	1.12
1984, Q4	-132.9	-161.0	-0.69	-162.6	-186.4	-0.58	29.7	25.4	-0.11	4078.0	4034.0	1.08
1985, Q1	-98.0	-126.1	-0.68	-126.8	-150.7	-0.58	28.8	24.7	-0.10	4159.5	4117.2	1.02
1985, Q2	-150.8	-177.0	-0.62	-179.1	-201.0	-0.52	28.3	24.0	-0.10	4216.5	4175.7	0.97
1985, Q3	-138.9	-156.3	-0.41	-162.5	-178.0	-0.36	23.6	21.7	-0.05	4272.6	4258.3	0.33
1985, Q4	-151.4	-165.7	-0.33	-172.3	-184.7	-0.29	20.9	19.1	-0.04	4335.2	4318.7	0.38
1986, Q1	-143.8	-157.3	-0.31	-172.3	-184.2	-0.27	28.5	26.9	-0.04	4393.2	4382.4	0.25
1986, Q2	-167.2	-185.5	-0.41	-190.6	-205.7	-0.34	23.4	20.2	-0.07	4451.0	4423.3	0.62
1986, Q3	-170.9	-188.4	-0.39	-196.5	-210.9	-0.32	25.6	22.5	-0.07	4514.9	4491.3	0.52
1986, Q4	-143.6	-164.3	-0.45	-161.4	-177.7	-0.35	17.8	13.3	-0.10	4583.4	4543.3	0.88
1987, Q1	-147.8	-174.5	-0.57	-160.1	-181.9	-0.47	12.3	7.4	-0.11	4655.5	4611.1	0.95
1987, Q2	-85.4	-107.9	-0.48	-108.8	-127.8	-0.40	23.3	19.9	-0.07	4717.9	4686.7	0.66
1987, Q3	-109.1	-127.8	-0.39	-123.1	-139.0	-0.33	14.1	11.2	-0.06	4791.7	4764.5	0.57
1987, Q4	-137.2	-139.3	-0.04	-145.2	-148.7	-0.07	8.0	9.4	0.03	4863.1	4883.1	-0.41
1988, Q1	-134.7	-135.6	-0.02	-146.0	-148.0	-0.04	11.3	12.3	0.02	4939.8	4948.6	-0.18
1988, Q2	-135.3	-125.7	0.19	-144.1	-137.9	0.12	8.8	12.1	0.07	5025.5	5059.3	-0.67
1988, Q3	-118.0	-108.4	0.19	-137.0	-130.0	0.14	19.0	21.6	0.05	5123.9	5142.8	-0.37
1988, Q4	-133.3	-115.0	0.35	-151.3	-137.8	0.26	18.0	22.9	0.09	5204.6	5251.0	-0.89
1989, Q1	-112.6	-87.9	0.46	-133.2	-115.4	0.34	20.7	27.4	0.13	5299.0	5360.3	-1.16
1989, Q2	-133.7	-108.7	0.46	-153.3	-134.9	0.34	19.6	26.1	0.12	5392.6	5453.6	-1.13
1989, Q3	-146.4	-119.2	0.50	-161.1	-140.9	0.37	14.7	21.6	0.13	5470.5	5532.9	-1.14
1989, Q4	-155.6	-139.3	0.29	-156.7	-144.7	0.22	1.1	5.4	0.08	5546.6	5581.7	-0.63
1990, Q1	-174.6	-156.0	0.33	-184.4	-171.3	0.23	9.8	15.3	0.10	5656.0	5708.1	-0.92
1990, Q2	-180.3	-167.7	0.22	-185.2	-176.7	0.15	4.9	9.0	0.07	5764.1	5797.4	-0.58
1990, Q3	-161.3	-167.6	-0.11	-165.8	-172.0	-0.11	4.5	4.4	-0.00	5859.7	5850.6	0.15
1990, Q4	-146.5	-189.8	-0.73	-151.1	-185.8	-0.58	4.6	-3.9	-0.14	5949.7	5846.0	1.74
1991, Q1	-83.7	-164.1	-1.33	-92.9	-157.4	-1.07	9.3	-6.6	-0.26	6054.6	5880.2	2.88
1991, Q2	-131.4	-225.1	-1.53	-140.5	-217.1	-1.25	9.1	-8.1	-0.28	6137.6	5962.0	2.86
1991, Q3	-136.3	-243.0	-1.71	-153.2	-240.5	-1.40	16.9	-2.4	-0.31	6224.3	6033.7	3.06
1991, Q4	-146.7	-264.8	-1.88	-162.1	-258.7	-1.53	15.4	-6.1	-0.34	6299.7	6092.5	3.29
1992, Q1	-183.9	-296.5	-1.77	-203.2	-296.0	-1.46	19.2	-0.5	-0.31	6375.6	6190.7	2.90
1992, Q2	-194.5	-302.6	-1.68	-212.2	-302.2	-1.39	17.8	-0.4	-0.28	6454.3	6295.2	2.47
1992, Q3	-217.9	-317.9	-1.53	-229.2	-313.2	-1.29	11.3	-4.8	-0.25	6524.4	6389.7	2.06
1992, Q4	-209.3	-298.5	-1.35	-222.8	-298.6	-1.15	13.6	0.1	-0.20	6603.7	6493.6	1.67
1993, Q1	-233.4	-322.3	-1.33	-238.7	-312.1	-1.10	5.3	-10.2	-0.23	6687.9	6544.5	2.14
1993, Q2	-186.1	-278.9	-1.37	-198.4	-275.3	-1.14	12.3	-3.6	-0.23	6769.2	6622.7	2.16
1993, Q3	-190.5	-285.8	-1.39	-203.5	-282.2	-1.15	13.0	-3.7	-0.24	6847.1	6688.3	2.32
1993, Q4	-150.9	-237.6	-1.25	-178.2	-251.3	-1.05	27.3	13.7	-0.20	6930.0	6813.8	1.68
1994, Q1	-158.3	-231.0	-1.04	-175.3	-236.4	-0.87	17.1	5.4	-0.17	7016.6	6916.3	1.43
1994, Q2	-145.6	-199.2	-0.75	-156.6	-202.9	-0.65	11.0	3.7	-0.10	7100.1	7044.3	0.79
1994, Q3	-160.8	-205.4	-0.62	-182.6	-220.6	-0.53	21.8	15.2	-0.09	7190.7	7131.8	0.82
1994, Q4	-183.2	-213.1	-0.41	-195.7	-221.7	-0.36	12.5	8.6	-0.05	7280.6	7248.2	0.44
1995, Q1	-175.9	-210.5	-0.47	-193.0	-221.4	-0.39	17.0	10.9	-0.08	7377.2	7307.7	0.94
1995, Q2	-157.8	-208.5	-0.68	-165.1	-206.2	-0.55	7.3	-2.3	-0.13	7464.4	7355.8	1.45
1995, Q3	-149.9	-201.1	-0.68	-168.3	-210.3	-0.56	18.4	9.3	-0.12	7551.6	7452.5	1.31
1995, Q4	-112.8	-167.8	-0.72	-141.6	-186.7	-0.59	28.8	18.9	-0.13	7647.1	7542.5	1.37
1996, Q1	-116.4	-173.8	-0.74	-147.3	-194.3	-0.61	30.8	20.5	-0.13	7746.5	7638.2	1.40
1996, Q2	-97.1	-131.0	-0.43	-120.1	-149.5	-0.38	23.0	18.6	-0.06	7834.3	7800.0	0.44
1996, Q3	-88.4	-113.3	-0.31	-117.8	-138.3	-0.26	29.4	25.1	-0.05	7933.6	7892.7	0.52
1996, Q4	-71.0	-83.0	-0.15	-100.4	-110.8	-0.13	29.5	27.8	-0.02	8031.8	8023.0	0.11
1997, Q1	-58.1	-62.4	-0.05	-88.2	-92.4	-0.05	30.0	30.0	-0.00	8136.0	8137.0	-0.01
1997, Q2	-51.9	-37.9	0.17	-82.0	-71.0	0.13	30.1	33.1	0.04	8237.6	8276.8	-0.48
1997, Q3	-29.5	4.8	0.41	-62.7	-35.6	0.33	33.3	40.4	0.09	8327.4	8409.9	-0.99
1997, Q4	-40.6	0.1	0.48	-74.8	-41.5	0.40	34.3	41.7	0.09	8427.7	8505.7	-0.93
1998, Q1	4.4	53.5	0.58	-31.9	7.9	0.47	36.3	45.6	0.11	8510.7	8600.6	-1.06
1998, Q2	10.5	63.3	0.61	-21.8	20.7	0.49	32.3	42.6	0.12	8603.9	8698.6	-1.10
1998, Q3	34.0	97.3	0.73	2.4	52.3	0.57	31.6	45.1	0.15	8709.9	8847.2	-1.58
1998, Q4	15.1	107.8	1.05	-18.5	53.4	0.82	33.6	54.4	0.24	8807.9	9027.5	-2.49
1999, Q1	24.1	123.2	1.11	2.2	79.1	0.86	21.9	44.1	0.25	8921.7	9148.6	-2.54
1999, Q2	34.3	133.5	1.10	18.7	96.1	0.86	15.6	37.4	0.24	9036.5	9252.6	-2.39
1999, Q3	31.5	145.0	1.24	15.8	103.5	0.96	15.7	41.6	0.28	9147.0	9405.1	-2.82
1999, Q4	18.2	160.7	1.54	6.8	116.6	1.18	11.4	44.2	0.35	9265.2	9607.7	-3.70
2000, Q1	123.6	256.4	1.41	102.8	205.3	1.09	20.8	51.2	0.32	9418.7	9709.5	-3.09
2000, Q2	58.5	227.7	1.77	45.1	175.0	1.36	13.4	52.8	0.41	9552.9	9949.1	-4.15
2000, Q3	71.1	220.3	1.54	66.1	181.8	1.19	5.0	38.6	0.35	9698.0	10017.5	-3.29
2000, Q4	69.9	201.4	1.34	77.8	178.8	1.03	-7.8	22.6	0.31	9837.6	10129.8	-2.97
2001, Q1	87.2	174.4	0.87	93.2	159.4	0.66	-5.9	15.1	0.21	9998.1	10165.1	-1.67
2001, Q2	58.4	113.3	0.54	80.6	119.0	0.38	-22.2	-5.7	0.16	10160.3	10301.3	-1.39
2001, Q3	-127.0	-127.3	-0.00	-99.0	-104.4	-0.05	-28.0	-22.9	0.05	10284.8	10305.2	-0.20
2001, Q4	-15.0	-62.0	-0.45	32.7	-12.0	-0.43	-47.7	-50.0	-0.02	10404.8	10373.1	0.30
2002, Q1	-204.8	-261.3	-0.54	-152.3	-205.4	-0.50	-52.5	-55.9	-0.03	10531.1	10498.7	0.31
2002, Q2	-232.8	-307.6	-0.70	-182.0	-249.7	-0.63	-50.8	-57.9	-0.07	10666.0	10601.9	0.60
2002, Q3	-223.1	-310.0	-0.80	-186.2	-262.9	-0.71	-36.9	-47.0	-0.09	10800.4	10701.7	0.91
2002, Q4	-231.0	-348.6	-1.07	-192.6	-293.0	-0.92	-38.5	-55.6	-0.16	10949.7	10766.9	1.67
2003, Q1	-244.3	-381.9	-1.24	-184.2	-300.6	-1.05	-60.1	-81.3	-0.19	11113.4	10888.4	2.02
2003, Q2	-278.1	-427.3	-1.33	-247.3	-375.0	-1.14	-30.8	-52.3	-0.19	11228.4	11008.1	1.96
2003, Q3	-357.6	-477.0	-1.05	-347.2	-451.4	-0.92	-10.4	-25.5	-0.13	11370.9	11255.7	1.01
2003, Q4	-270.3	-374.8	-0.91	-286.2	-378.6	-0.80	15.9	3.8	-0.11	11509.8	11416.5	0.81
2004, Q1	-349.2	-432.0	-0.71	-337.1	-409.3	-0.62	-12.1	-22.7	-0.09	11683.7	11597.2	0.74
2004, Q2	-334.9	-405.4	-0.60	-322.6	-384.4	-0.52	-12.2	-21.0	-0.07	11857.6	11778.4	0.67
2004, Q3	-302.2	-365.2	-0.52	-306.2	-361.6	-0.46	4.0	-3.6	-0.06	12017.6	11950.6	0.56
2004, Q4	-299.3	-348.7	-0.41	-318.1	-362.5	-0.36	18.8	13.8	-0.04	12179.5	12144.9	0.28
2005, Q1	-235.9	-263.7	-0.22	-262.0	-288.9	-0.22	26.1	25.2	-0.01	12366.8	12379.5	-0.10
2005, Q2	-245.1	-269.2	-0.19	-265.2	-288.1	-0.18	20.1	18.9	-0.01	12525.4	12516.8	0.07
2005, Q3	-249.1	-262.1	-0.10	-273.6	-287.4	-0.11	24.5	25.3	0.01	12730.5	12741.6	-0.09
2005, Q4	-220.9	-233.3	-0.10	-254.5	-267.7	-0.10	33.6	34.4	0.01	12914.9	12915.6	-0.01
2006, Q1	-162.8	-144.7	0.14	-217.7	-207.3	0.08	54.9	62.6	0.06	13091.1	13183.5	-0.71
2006, Q2	-184.1	-166.2	0.13	-241.0	-229.4	0.09	56.9	63.2	0.05	13289.7	13347.8	-0.44
2006, Q3	-169.1	-173.1	-0.03	-210.8	-215.5	-0.03	41.7	42.4	0.00	13474.8	13452.9	0.16
2006, Q4	-126.8	-127.0	-0.00	-160.7	-163.0	-0.02	34.0	35.9	0.01	13622.2	13611.5	0.08
2007, Q1	-147.8	-168.1	-0.15	-182.8	-200.9	-0.13	35.0	32.8	-0.02	13852.7	13795.6	0.41
2007, Q2	-164.4	-186.4	-0.16	-201.0	-221.3	-0.14	36.6	34.9	-0.01	14033.7	13997.2	0.26
2007, Q3	-224.9	-238.5	-0.10	-244.4	-258.8	-0.10	19.5	20.3	0.01	14180.9	14179.9	0.01
2007, Q4	-246.0	-266.3	-0.14	-245.1	-265.0	-0.14	-0.9	-1.3	-0.00	14352.8	14337.9	0.10
2008, Q1	-397.2	-453.6	-0.39	-386.6	-433.5	-0.32	-10.6	-20.1	-0.07	14510.5	14373.9	0.94
2008, Q2	-744.1	-822.5	-0.53	-732.7	-796.9	-0.44	-11.3	-25.5	-0.10	14666.3	14497.8	1.15
2008, Q3	-567.6	-724.8	-1.05	-539.7	-665.7	-0.85	-28.0	-59.0	-0.21	14901.0	14546.7	2.38
2008, Q4	-451.8	-730.2	-1.86	-453.0	-674.1	-1.47	1.2	-56.1	-0.38	14991.1	14347.3	4.29
2009, Q1	-604.0	-1005.7	-2.65	-654.2	-969.1	-2.08	50.2	-36.6	-0.57	15144.0	14178.0	6.38
2009, Q2	-803.9	-1293.5	-3.22	-878.2	-1268.9	-2.57	74.3	-24.6	-0.65	15221.1	14151.2	7.03
2009, Q3	-842.3	-1368.6	-3.44	-932.4	-1353.6	-2.75	90.1	-15.0	-0.69	15314.4	14242.1	7.00
2009, Q4	-773.7	-1308.9	-3.47	-863.4	-1299.1	-2.82	89.8	-9.8	-0.65	15425.0	14461.7	6.25

Return to Figure 3

Figure 3C: Estimates of Cyclical Deficits by Government (Calendar Years)

Calendar Year	General Government, HEB	General Government, ACT	General Government, CYC	Federal Government, HEB	Federal Government, ACT	Federal Government, CYC	State & Local Government*, HEB	State & Local Government*, ACT	State & Local Government*, CYC	GDP, HEB	GDP, ACT	GDP, GAP
1970	-10.2	-8.4	0.17	-17.9	-15.5	0.23	7.8	7.1	-0.06	1051.7	1038.3	1.27
1971	-19.7	-22.2	-0.22	-26.7	-28.7	-0.18	7.0	6.5	-0.04	1138.8	1126.8	1.05
1972	-13.6	-9.3	0.35	-28.6	-24.9	0.30	15.0	15.6	0.05	1223.9	1237.9	-1.14
1973	-14.5	3.9	1.38	-26.4	-11.8	1.10	12.0	15.7	0.28	1334.4	1382.3	-3.59
1974	-4.2	-5.2	-0.07	-13.8	-14.5	-0.05	9.6	9.3	-0.02	1508.9	1499.4	0.63
1975	-33.6	-68.2	-2.02	-42.1	-70.6	-1.67	8.5	2.5	-0.35	1711.0	1637.7	4.28
1976	-23.0	-46.3	-1.25	-34.1	-53.7	-1.05	11.1	7.4	-0.20	1867.1	1824.6	2.27
1977	-22.4	-33.0	-0.52	-37.4	-46.1	-0.43	15.0	13.1	-0.09	2050.1	2030.1	0.97
1978	-20.8	-10.2	0.46	-37.5	-28.9	0.38	16.7	18.7	0.09	2271.7	2293.8	-0.97
1979	-15.8	-1.0	0.58	-27.6	-14.0	0.53	11.8	13.0	0.05	2547.7	2562.2	-0.57
1980	-22.6	-47.8	-0.88	-36.7	-56.6	-0.70	14.1	8.8	-0.19	2852.4	2788.1	2.25
1981	-11.3	-49.2	-1.19	-24.4	-56.8	-1.01	13.1	7.6	-0.17	3189.4	3126.8	1.96
1982	-32.0	-137.5	-3.03	-50.7	-135.3	-2.43	18.7	-2.2	-0.60	3481.8	3253.2	6.57
1983	-67.6	-171.4	-2.78	-91.0	-176.2	-2.29	23.4	4.9	-0.50	3727.8	3534.6	5.18
1984	-110.2	-147.5	-0.94	-139.8	-171.5	-0.79	29.6	23.9	-0.14	3986.5	3930.9	1.39
1985	-134.8	-156.3	-0.51	-160.2	-178.6	-0.43	25.4	22.4	-0.07	4246.0	4217.5	0.67
1986	-156.4	-173.9	-0.39	-180.2	-194.6	-0.32	23.8	20.7	-0.07	4485.6	4460.1	0.57
1987	-119.9	-137.4	-0.37	-134.3	-149.3	-0.32	14.4	12.0	-0.05	4757.1	4736.4	0.44
1988	-130.3	-121.2	0.18	-144.6	-138.4	0.12	14.3	17.2	0.06	5073.5	5100.4	-0.53
1989	-137.1	-113.8	0.43	-151.1	-133.9	0.32	14.0	20.1	0.11	5427.2	5482.2	-1.01
1990	-165.7	-170.3	-0.08	-171.6	-176.4	-0.08	5.9	6.2	0.00	5807.4	5800.5	0.12
1991	-124.5	-224.2	-1.61	-137.2	-218.4	-1.32	12.7	-5.8	-0.30	6179.1	5992.1	3.03
1992	-201.4	-303.9	-1.58	-216.9	-302.5	-1.32	15.5	-1.4	-0.26	6489.5	6342.3	2.27
1993	-190.2	-281.2	-1.34	-204.7	-280.2	-1.11	14.5	-0.9	-0.23	6808.6	6667.3	2.07
1994	-162.0	-212.2	-0.70	-177.5	-220.4	-0.60	15.6	8.2	-0.10	7147.0	7085.2	0.87
1995	-149.1	-197.0	-0.64	-167.0	-206.2	-0.52	17.9	9.2	-0.12	7510.1	7414.7	1.27
1996	-93.2	-125.3	-0.41	-121.4	-148.2	-0.34	28.2	23.0	-0.07	7886.6	7838.5	0.61
1997	-45.0	-23.8	0.26	-76.9	-60.1	0.20	31.9	36.3	0.05	8282.2	8332.4	-0.61
1998	16.0	80.5	0.74	-17.5	33.6	0.59	33.5	46.9	0.16	8658.1	8793.5	-1.56
1999	27.0	140.6	1.25	10.9	98.8	0.97	16.1	41.8	0.28	9092.6	9353.5	-2.87
2000	80.8	226.5	1.51	72.9	185.2	1.17	7.9	41.3	0.35	9626.8	9951.5	-3.37
2001	0.9	24.6	0.23	26.9	40.5	0.13	-26.0	-15.9	0.10	10212.0	10286.2	-0.73
2002	-222.9	-306.9	-0.78	-178.3	-252.8	-0.69	-44.7	-54.1	-0.09	10736.8	10642.3	0.88
2003	-287.6	-415.2	-1.13	-266.2	-376.4	-0.97	-21.3	-38.8	-0.15	11305.6	11142.1	1.45
2004	-321.4	-387.8	-0.56	-321.0	-379.5	-0.49	-0.4	-8.4	-0.07	11934.6	11867.8	0.56
2005	-237.8	-257.1	-0.15	-263.8	-283.0	-0.15	26.1	25.9	-0.00	12634.4	12638.4	-0.03
2006	-160.7	-152.7	0.06	-207.5	-203.8	0.03	46.9	51.0	0.03	13369.5	13398.9	-0.22
2007	-195.8	-214.8	-0.13	-218.3	-236.5	-0.13	22.5	21.7	-0.01	14105.0	14077.6	0.19
2008	-540.2	-682.7	-0.97	-528.0	-642.6	-0.78	-12.2	-40.2	-0.19	14767.2	14441.4	2.21
2009	-756.0	-1244.1	-3.20	-832.1	-1222.7	-2.56	76.1	-21.5	-0.64	15276.1	14258.2	6.66

Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: Estimates of Fiscal Impetus (Levels)

Year	Federal FI	Federal Grants	S&L FI	Total Gov. FI	Real GDP (t-1)
1968	0.62	-0.17	34.74	35.53	3942.52
1969	-31.76	0.06	20.53	-11.29	4133.39
1970	-0.53	9.57	18.59	8.49	4261.8
1971	-8.62	7.53	22.06	5.91	4269.94
1972	24.44	14.05	12.47	22.86	4413.26
1973	-7.53	22.49	20.80	-9.22	4647.73
1974	0.16	-6.33	20.74	27.23	4917.01
1975	28.15	7.57	31.04	51.62	4889.92
1976	17.48	8.71	6.49	15.26	4879.52
1977	11.27	5.65	1.87	7.49	5141.3
1978	22.14	12.06	32.42	42.50	5377.65
1979	10.95	-3.85	13.84	28.64	5677.62
1980	-2.61	-5.31	4.58	7.28	5855.05
1981	-18.19	-7.66	-20.06	-30.59	5838.98
1982	45.59	-16.98	-7.17	55.40	5987.19
1983	55.80	-5.88	7.09	68.77	5870.94
1984	24.36	0.18	18.45	42.63	6136.17
1985	26.66	1.34	51.61	76.93	6577.12
1986	0.77	2.63	60.52	58.66	6849.27
1987	23.85	-7.37	14.57	45.79	7086.51
1988	-11.22	-1.19	29.84	19.81	7313.28
1989	-17.57	2.73	38.48	18.18	7613.89
1990	-21.36	2.47	43.67	19.84	7885.93
1991	-37.49	3.48	22.79	-18.18	8033.91
1992	-24.71	2.98	16.31	-11.38	8015.14
1993	-46.27	-13.69	14.79	-17.79	8287.07
1994	-54.99	-7.38	30.74	-16.87	8523.45
1995	-31.68	0.51	30.83	-1.36	8870.67
1996	-15.99	0.98	27.48	10.51	9093.72
1997	-8.49	1.15	37.38	27.74	9433.89
1998	-4.03	7.04	53.28	42.21	9854.33
1999	31.32	9.79	64.60	86.13	10283.52
2000	8.02	3.27	44.37	49.12	10779.85
2001	53.59	5.37	67.63	115.85	11225.98
2002	108.29	6.84	46.03	147.48	11347.16
2003	104.02	13.53	-8.16	82.33	11552.97
2004	85.31	5.44	-6.19	73.68	11840.7
2005	28.26	0.20	-7.07	20.99	12263.81
2006	42.29	-0.71	6.60	49.60	12638.38
2007	20.14	-4.21	30.23	54.58	12976.25
2008	111.53	-1.31	4.56	117.40	13254.06
2009	135.21	37.57	-13.95	83.69	13312.16

Return to Figure 4

Figure 4: Estimates of Fiscal Impetus (% of real GDP)

Year	Federal, FI	Federal, FI ex. Grants	State and Local, FI ex. Grants	State and Local, FI	General Gov., FI
1968	0.02	0.02	0.89	0.88	0.90
1969	-0.77	-0.77	0.50	0.50	-0.27
1970	-0.01	-0.24	0.21	0.44	0.20
1971	-0.20	-0.38	0.34	0.52	0.14
1972	0.55	0.24	-0.04	0.28	0.52
1973	-0.16	-0.65	-0.04	0.45	-0.20
1974	0.00	0.13	0.55	0.42	0.55
1975	0.58	0.42	0.48	0.63	1.06
1976	0.36	0.18	-0.05	0.13	0.31
1977	0.22	0.11	-0.07	0.04	0.15
1978	0.41	0.19	0.38	0.60	0.79
1979	0.19	0.26	0.31	0.24	0.50
1980	-0.04	0.05	0.17	0.08	0.12
1981	-0.31	-0.18	-0.21	-0.34	-0.52
1982	0.76	1.05	0.16	-0.12	0.93
1983	0.95	1.05	0.22	0.12	1.17
1984	0.40	0.39	0.30	0.30	0.69
1985	0.41	0.38	0.76	0.78	1.17
1986	0.01	-0.03	0.85	0.88	0.86
1987	0.34	0.44	0.31	0.21	0.65
1988	-0.15	-0.14	0.42	0.41	0.27
1989	-0.23	-0.27	0.47	0.51	0.24
1990	-0.27	-0.30	0.52	0.55	0.25
1991	-0.47	-0.51	0.24	0.28	-0.23
1992	-0.31	-0.35	0.17	0.20	-0.14
1993	-0.56	-0.39	0.34	0.18	-0.21
1994	-0.65	-0.56	0.45	0.36	-0.20
1995	-0.36	-0.36	0.34	0.35	-0.02
1996	-0.18	-0.19	0.29	0.30	0.12
1997	-0.09	-0.10	0.38	0.40	0.29
1998	-0.04	-0.11	0.47	0.54	0.43
1999	0.30	0.21	0.53	0.63	0.84
2000	0.07	0.04	0.38	0.41	0.46
2001	0.48	0.43	0.55	0.60	1.03
2002	0.95	0.89	0.35	0.41	1.30
2003	0.90	0.78	-0.19	-0.07	0.71
2004	0.72	0.67	-0.10	-0.05	0.62
2005	0.23	0.23	-0.06	-0.06	0.17
2006	0.33	0.34	0.06	0.05	0.39
2007	0.16	0.19	0.27	0.23	0.42
2008	0.84	0.85	0.04	0.03	0.89
2009	1.02	0.73	-0.39	-0.10	0.63

Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Effect of Fiscal Stimulus Actions

	Stimulus Effect, Deficit	Stimulus Effect, Demand
2008 Q1	0.0	0.0
2008 Q2	2.7	0.4
2008 Q3	0.9	0.5
2008 Q4	0.6	0.4
2009 Q1	1.1	0.6
2009 Q2	2.5	1.0
2009 Q3	2.3	1.2
2009 Q4	2.3	1.4

Return to Figure 5

Fiscal Policy in the United States: Automatic Stabilizers, Discretionary Fiscal Policy Actions, and the Economy

Figure 1: Estimates of GDP Gap and Employment Slack (Quaterly)

Figure 1: Estimates of GDP Gap and Employment Slack (Calendar Years)

Figure 2: Estimates of GDP, Wage, and Profit Gaps (Quaterly)

Figure 2: Estimates of GDP, Wage, and Profit Gaps (Calendar Years)

Figure 3A: Estimates of Cyclical Receipts by Government (Quaterly)

Figure 3A: Estimates of Cyclical Receipts by Government (Calendar Years)

Figure 3B: Estimates of Cyclical Expenditures by Government (Quaterly)

Figure 3B: Estimates of Cyclical Expenditures by Government (Calendar Years)

Figure 3C: Estimates of Cyclical Deficits by Government (Quaterly)

Figure 3C: Estimates of Cyclical Deficits by Government (Calendar Years)

Figure 4: Estimates of Fiscal Impetus (Levels)

Figure 4: Estimates of Fiscal Impetus (% of real GDP)

Figure 5: Effect of Fiscal Stimulus Actions