Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2010-57
♣
Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues
Bennett T. McCallum and Edward Nelson
Figure 1 Growth in M1 and M2 (four quarter growth rates)
|
M1 4 qtr growth |
M2 4 qtr growth |
1960 |
0.406698564593544 |
3.7753329473076 |
1960 |
-0.664136622391361 |
3.06937471474191 |
1960 |
-0.447479981158492 |
3.50106945851604 |
1960 |
0.380137799952238 |
4.64437962755217 |
1961 |
1.16750059566332 |
5.89219953130232 |
1961 |
2.12511938872996 |
6.98549761983861 |
1961 |
1.77430801987225 |
6.88492495105504 |
1961 |
2.74556213017775 |
7.2041166380789 |
1962 |
2.89684408855396 |
7.56665612814828 |
1962 |
2.82908580780898 |
7.85389072847683 |
1962 |
2.13854021385354 |
7.71344255622277 |
1962 |
1.7737848422018 |
7.97000000000011 |
1963 |
2.17441062027947 |
8.14147153913981 |
1963 |
2.43292405638951 |
8.20301256835845 |
1963 |
3.57305416476993 |
8.71043930089741 |
1963 |
4.02897238569467 |
8.64128924701307 |
1964 |
3.60663082437231 |
8.04493567675305 |
1964 |
3.37402885682599 |
7.55453094520305 |
1964 |
3.99912107229205 |
7.79525506213611 |
1964 |
4.32985204525721 |
7.91986359761279 |
1965 |
4.45405405405428 |
8.25926547040072 |
1965 |
4.3375563667595 |
8.21104699093159 |
1965 |
3.88759771814898 |
7.88455336988069 |
1965 |
4.37956204379563 |
8.02591041946449 |
1966 |
5.40260815566138 |
7.95445743939294 |
1966 |
5.92714550319 |
7.46609782111824 |
1966 |
4.35224730526786 |
6.03048871618594 |
1966 |
2.81718281718282 |
4.80438756855577 |
1967 |
2.06205813040063 |
4.49131869708695 |
1967 |
2.3703128035751 |
5.72096980008508 |
1967 |
4.95030208536369 |
7.95686799633534 |
1967 |
6.35445005829772 |
9.14038515210703 |
1968 |
6.69617086780836 |
9.24196649272186 |
1968 |
7.04118428544335 |
8.44229866559387 |
1968 |
6.77808727947967 |
7.62501632066842 |
1968 |
7.32687739813651 |
7.8378723948345 |
1969 |
7.84490532010822 |
7.83155248271521 |
1969 |
6.8794326241133 |
7.01830324016831 |
1969 |
5.30434782608715 |
5.64721581948316 |
1969 |
3.91556009533502 |
4.14394119041975 |
1970 |
3.16053511705687 |
2.77453951970163 |
1970 |
3.10218978102174 |
2.56543595077138 |
1970 |
3.9966969446735 |
4.22001492794397 |
1970 |
5.01310615989518 |
6.10804349063591 |
1971 |
5.64110876965473 |
9.11411070780405 |
1971 |
7.0796460176993 |
12.5626725254915 |
1971 |
7.51151341908865 |
13.3539003966505 |
1971 |
6.59906396255852 |
13.3744635193133 |
1972 |
6.90501764615622 |
13.1503716409376 |
1972 |
6.40120210368145 |
11.6810970421901 |
1972 |
6.77991137370755 |
12.0966174183515 |
1972 |
8.38577491584958 |
12.7667628826953 |
1973 |
8.42543418975184 |
12.0722127796408 |
1973 |
7.93673209998575 |
11.1270445888416 |
1973 |
6.9442523170562 |
9.02232820290488 |
1973 |
5.71158520118825 |
6.87759640804004 |
1974 |
5.34815991527642 |
6.32454810017621 |
1974 |
5.10270836059142 |
5.86740866198887 |
1974 |
4.824731600052 |
5.5197645748826 |
1974 |
4.76433771873828 |
5.77149587750294 |
1975 |
3.70696154812754 |
5.83654587509642 |
1975 |
4.29478401593428 |
8.40665828667191 |
1975 |
5.31836130306035 |
11.1668048541494 |
1975 |
4.7671299683003 |
12.134372680029 |
1976 |
5.64643160063033 |
13.5317257958761 |
1976 |
5.84865122941061 |
12.8074490512994 |
1976 |
4.9560632688928 |
11.7333966166041 |
1976 |
6.10962411264984 |
13.0524016021723 |
1977 |
7.08796880376192 |
13.2952613173352 |
1977 |
7.35227785295431 |
12.9543684784309 |
1977 |
7.94820272382215 |
12.564475999758 |
1977 |
8.12678218907656 |
10.8778402436165 |
1978 |
7.81835707400653 |
9.2345595106618 |
1978 |
8.37184873949561 |
8.35539377895434 |
1978 |
8.52119958634966 |
7.88970053101191 |
1978 |
8.12455624302668 |
7.67686904164579 |
1979 |
7.38055031290366 |
7.25359050137347 |
1979 |
7.68634292914627 |
7.78490354761491 |
1979 |
8.18562988374299 |
8.31709388897166 |
1979 |
7.26078799249532 |
7.91190464511675 |
1980 |
7.7058279370954 |
8.21328434690157 |
1980 |
4.20342034203404 |
7.28165655325482 |
1980 |
5.5227693120761 |
7.96909237688876 |
1980 |
7.4164771733425 |
8.6454545454546 |
1981 |
6.93979214978949 |
8.60397587670316 |
1981 |
10.330828366589 |
9.90382287563004 |
1981 |
6.91151919866445 |
8.57081820123885 |
1981 |
5.55284155674989 |
9.0578194293369 |
1982 |
6.60187936711911 |
9.64995269631034 |
1982 |
5.01056916934174 |
9.04339467729322 |
1982 |
5.89475327920059 |
9.09842194325335 |
1982 |
8.82443690219062 |
8.76395442513523 |
1983 |
9.40254652301666 |
12.1619086919006 |
1983 |
11.62305226273 |
12.6182212182988 |
1983 |
12.8880041288799 |
12.3363272373114 |
1983 |
10.4054437198754 |
11.8424069273229 |
1984 |
9.08339646029895 |
8.33807150740829 |
1984 |
7.66096713865879 |
7.9137042593435 |
1984 |
6.13284566651427 |
7.64537777349683 |
1984 |
5.46995377503852 |
8.06868712352976 |
1985 |
6.51515151515132 |
8.97443813287235 |
1985 |
7.19027234940147 |
8.57397585263797 |
1985 |
10.0676923076923 |
9.43354015033991 |
1985 |
11.9917214511808 |
8.63646312103306 |
1986 |
11.4331436699858 |
7.02144536672457 |
1986 |
13.0686422039589 |
7.93725904997843 |
1986 |
13.8544112713855 |
8.35320894607009 |
1986 |
15.5016849657572 |
9.15598893276372 |
1987 |
16.7331524918888 |
9.25418569254158 |
1987 |
14.2966830466829 |
7.34842819196921 |
1987 |
9.77705755254375 |
5.36967623456016 |
1987 |
6.33411764705873 |
4.2524393695168 |
1988 |
3.69070943636944 |
4.44595200310116 |
1988 |
3.81566572618582 |
5.56376346798352 |
1988 |
5.05032431223437 |
5.91732222368112 |
1988 |
4.21756063020008 |
5.64282932241211 |
1989 |
3.37478578019949 |
4.38892561791783 |
1989 |
0.414132263491644 |
3.11202139159106 |
1989 |
-0.434338272866645 |
4.10129835001354 |
1989 |
0.535054567072904 |
5.22076238995375 |
1990 |
1.81083953241233 |
6.14215397606705 |
1990 |
3.93951110538292 |
6.28889869785931 |
1990 |
4.60183046788133 |
5.39478385137551 |
1990 |
4.18585005279841 |
4.14520975568343 |
1991 |
4.32132270051355 |
3.93807116163645 |
1991 |
5.34430023972886 |
4.2733001796115 |
1991 |
6.23926731539787 |
3.54288649203914 |
1991 |
7.94616070704609 |
3.09425498292278 |
1992 |
10.9581365564717 |
2.71323684926128 |
1992 |
11.7667830658768 |
1.60700950863743 |
1992 |
12.5692733990148 |
1.36509290766784 |
1992 |
14.3393675354917 |
1.76720727848111 |
1993 |
11.9030442937524 |
0.628523802520077 |
1993 |
11.935687706241 |
1.00441944556057 |
1993 |
12.2358974358974 |
1.37313432835831 |
1993 |
10.5899356194974 |
1.25550254112947 |
1994 |
9.85688499226376 |
1.85625475025822 |
1994 |
7.55503982939225 |
1.71721287618604 |
1994 |
5.18139449876634 |
1.28309100388114 |
1994 |
2.52465248901093 |
0.661234752732556 |
1995 |
1.09441934158853 |
0.469717117410242 |
1995 |
0.274092433299902 |
1.1168974857883 |
1995 |
-0.582102519548223 |
2.86253538848694 |
1995 |
-1.53543078973318 |
3.88032949431786 |
1996 |
-2.35089246843709 |
5.03227895107674 |
1996 |
-2.3961150367853 |
5.30962599632119 |
1996 |
-3.57715051414314 |
4.44166434992105 |
1996 |
-4.33976697658027 |
4.62747113566704 |
1997 |
-3.93520582553188 |
4.5853844270992 |
1997 |
-4.85624906897038 |
4.50628784350258 |
1997 |
-3.07845684420351 |
5.15514227660321 |
1997 |
-1.32562359671547 |
5.56052631578948 |
1998 |
-0.0711611645682436 |
6.26533177306801 |
1998 |
1.1899170189441 |
6.98950074994661 |
1998 |
0.679508758804921 |
7.14436390944444 |
1998 |
2.12268561810455 |
8.27163263779822 |
1999 |
1.94439284166266 |
8.15299405349417 |
1999 |
2.24972922791338 |
7.75454618280845 |
1999 |
1.98142414860745 |
7.46731768782495 |
1999 |
1.84354302109056 |
6.15075253467177 |
2000 |
1.42440624430512 |
5.94473104655014 |
2000 |
0.556867017734683 |
6.12891234852429 |
2000 |
0.258044930175781 |
5.80014949216625 |
2000 |
-1.73524740012587 |
5.95269942952989 |
2001 |
-0.907321455307678 |
7.13106001281412 |
2001 |
1.15271173177663 |
8.10625271445978 |
2001 |
5.78046934140774 |
9.34359350866143 |
2001 |
7.35025009149661 |
10.2088167053365 |
2002 |
8.01704339417447 |
9.31974190461635 |
2002 |
6.1382367818138 |
7.46860541969617 |
2002 |
2.47896032518493 |
7.03123515364199 |
2002 |
3.23597931700694 |
6.83653250773988 |
2003 |
3.63407469576164 |
6.49496693250328 |
2003 |
6.43081408387561 |
7.72676844415492 |
2003 |
8.34636871508381 |
7.89621642095788 |
2003 |
7.38641054572505 |
5.48565268544868 |
2004 |
6.84051398337059 |
4.68272858553522 |
2004 |
5.52863088026157 |
4.81006565286265 |
2004 |
4.54522017118647 |
3.75955109182767 |
2004 |
5.41503293098562 |
5.32784633473617 |
2005 |
3.88852392743445 |
5.17608955240168 |
2005 |
2.39610632721827 |
3.70178520887948 |
2005 |
1.61524993218466 |
4.01135528618172 |
2005 |
0.308747021928085 |
4.03436565937935 |
2006 |
0.792859401221151 |
4.87884537621699 |
2006 |
0.955514929920293 |
5.1057453152278 |
2006 |
-0.499927195068921 |
4.89451133666411 |
2006 |
-0.479872034124229 |
5.20615532724636 |
2007 |
-0.875901841082929 |
5.2317046044339 |
2007 |
-0.304222903638607 |
5.80819958061408 |
2007 |
0.346341463415136 |
6.09164603330737 |
2007 |
0.508974015537339 |
5.88123153178911 |
2008 |
0.808179162609789 |
6.5372095317278 |
2008 |
0.779830955898137 |
6.49694623616083 |
2008 |
3.3590977589806 |
6.10587660365463 |
2008 |
11.2909478581118 |
8.30482535109831 |
Figure 2 Old and New Definitions of M1 (growth rates of annual averages)
|
M1 growth-old |
M1 growth-new |
1960 |
-0.110170111005531 |
-0.0712250712250672 |
1961 |
2.1082600233825 |
1.96008553100499 |
1962 |
2.20687230923858 |
2.4117441454037 |
1963 |
2.9050062941803 |
3.05460750853242 |
1964 |
3.99648909900936 |
3.82513661202186 |
1965 |
4.29033430629377 |
4.25837320574163 |
1966 |
4.64233358264772 |
4.60455866605475 |
1967 |
3.97879159554789 |
3.93389880081895 |
1968 |
7.12625125968047 |
6.97903475446743 |
1969 |
6.01885777867328 |
5.94502170195976 |
1970 |
3.86151797603195 |
3.8361266294227 |
1971 |
6.69009324009325 |
6.70731707317075 |
1972 |
7.07143645243996 |
7.12605042016807 |
1973 |
7.45480460304875 |
7.23773663842694 |
1974 |
5.47218002278772 |
5.00341363503364 |
1975 |
4.2370905437631 |
4.52349990711502 |
1976 |
5.04646342516625 |
5.63405314138449 |
Figure 3. Growth in M1 and Adjusted M1
|
M1 4-qtr growth |
Adjusted M1 4-qtr growth |
1981 |
6.93979214978949 |
6.43489883101636 |
1981 |
10.330828366589 |
10.2384073786627 |
1981 |
6.91151919866445 |
6.69397685023348 |
1981 |
5.55284155674989 |
5.36158799740019 |
1982 |
6.60187936711911 |
6.79953617731848 |
1982 |
5.01056916934174 |
4.71951734219805 |
1982 |
5.89475327920059 |
5.55165754382714 |
1982 |
8.82443690219062 |
8.67566347959702 |
1983 |
9.40254652301666 |
9.03593726495704 |
1983 |
11.62305226273 |
11.6074112707061 |
1983 |
12.8880041288799 |
12.76674929958 |
1983 |
10.4054437198754 |
9.94163853284521 |
1984 |
9.08339646029895 |
8.7099478276392 |
1984 |
7.66096713865879 |
7.17548811165773 |
1984 |
6.13284566651427 |
5.73321689965182 |
1984 |
5.46995377503852 |
5.29566723439253 |
1985 |
6.51515151515132 |
6.29368771787849 |
1985 |
7.19027234940147 |
7.08479082473171 |
1985 |
10.0676923076923 |
10.0222597673402 |
1985 |
11.9917214511808 |
12.0352307988936 |
1986 |
11.4331436699858 |
11.5191387829335 |
1986 |
13.0686422039589 |
13.4772190494877 |
1986 |
13.8544112713855 |
14.4125779615731 |
1986 |
15.5016849657572 |
16.056500094161 |
1987 |
16.7331524918888 |
17.5076556860846 |
1987 |
14.2966830466829 |
14.7470155511913 |
1987 |
9.77705755254375 |
9.97102209841455 |
1987 |
6.33411764705873 |
6.29997636189996 |
1988 |
3.69070943636944 |
3.32549179397576 |
1988 |
3.81566572618582 |
3.35386447805518 |
1988 |
5.05032431223437 |
4.60647048058073 |
1988 |
4.21756063020008 |
3.79910296419883 |
1989 |
3.37478578019949 |
2.83716253454376 |
1989 |
0.414132263491644 |
-0.26212151623399 |
1989 |
-0.434338272866645 |
-1.03948474371679 |
1989 |
0.535054567072904 |
-0.0648265611101167 |
1990 |
1.81083953241233 |
0.96601233577924 |
1990 |
3.93951110538292 |
2.87285537038502 |
1990 |
4.60183046788133 |
2.86798484559569 |
1990 |
4.18585005279841 |
2.0539670235463 |
1991 |
4.32132270051355 |
1.92983814987338 |
1991 |
5.34430023972886 |
3.53960607577083 |
1991 |
6.23926731539787 |
4.80889796414782 |
1991 |
7.94616070704609 |
6.87449268917427 |
1992 |
10.9581365564717 |
10.819168600596 |
1992 |
11.7667830658768 |
11.8934666454821 |
1992 |
12.5692733990148 |
12.4707144218858 |
1992 |
14.3393675354917 |
14.3753841010925 |
1993 |
11.9030442937524 |
11.3276692647095 |
1993 |
11.935687706241 |
10.6433124756982 |
1993 |
12.2358974358974 |
11.0984381168299 |
1993 |
10.5899356194974 |
9.53278294431554 |
1994 |
9.85688499226376 |
9.32890327035934 |
1994 |
7.55503982939225 |
6.95625858771077 |
1994 |
5.18139449876634 |
4.47930609437775 |
1994 |
2.52465248901093 |
1.41866999570807 |
1995 |
1.09441934158853 |
-0.858848683689576 |
1995 |
0.274092433299902 |
-0.748172257211513 |
1995 |
-0.582102519548223 |
-0.15803477240321 |
1995 |
-1.53543078973318 |
0.961452380753403 |
1996 |
-2.35089246843709 |
3.7955318059515 |
1996 |
-2.3961150367853 |
5.08324337305646 |
1996 |
-3.57715051414314 |
4.80482344620962 |
1996 |
-4.33976697658027 |
4.85386631310219 |
1997 |
-3.93520582553188 |
4.1271670766717 |
1997 |
-4.85624906897038 |
3.56895587361431 |
1997 |
-3.07845684420351 |
4.48276560577068 |
1997 |
-1.32562359671547 |
5.01968573465618 |
1998 |
-0.0711611645682436 |
5.58336114556857 |
1998 |
1.1899170189441 |
5.98265563772062 |
1998 |
0.679508758804921 |
5.46821124522461 |
1998 |
2.12268561810455 |
6.11383363428782 |
1999 |
1.94439284166266 |
5.64444422666682 |
1999 |
2.24972922791338 |
5.58995539163895 |
1999 |
1.98142414860745 |
5.36497218203274 |
1999 |
1.84354302109056 |
3.57601799032238 |
2000 |
1.42440624430512 |
3.56745821367549 |
2000 |
0.556867017734683 |
2.84406283329077 |
2000 |
0.258044930175781 |
2.66597639839619 |
2000 |
-1.73524740012587 |
2.46303538434473 |
2001 |
-0.907321455307678 |
2.32805441403171 |
2001 |
1.15271173177663 |
3.70329211293189 |
2001 |
5.78046934140774 |
6.62714864966708 |
2001 |
7.35025009149661 |
7.65081859935151 |
2002 |
8.01704339417447 |
8.49843214680787 |
2002 |
6.1382367818138 |
7.87941607149172 |
2002 |
2.47896032518493 |
5.93792309581313 |
2002 |
3.23597931700694 |
6.53459404231068 |
2003 |
3.63407469576164 |
5.9963673382489 |
2003 |
6.43081408387561 |
7.4641555620644 |
2003 |
8.34636871508381 |
9.04734230975809 |
2003 |
7.38641054572505 |
8.7754159922602 |
2004 |
6.84051398337059 |
9.90369924517735 |
2004 |
5.52863088026157 |
9.14484736324922 |
2004 |
4.54522017118647 |
7.68749629046236 |
2004 |
5.41503293098562 |
7.65493324739785 |
2005 |
3.88852392743445 |
5.56498428034163 |
2005 |
2.39610632721827 |
4.3411408788973 |
2005 |
1.61524993218466 |
3.87942670548302 |
2005 |
0.308747021928085 |
2.68997397975225 |
2006 |
0.792859401221151 |
2.9244962510312 |
2006 |
0.955514929920293 |
2.86233067662988 |
2006 |
-0.499927195068921 |
2.10061271642382 |
2006 |
-0.479872034124229 |
1.95428178073183 |
Figure 4. Quarterly values of M1 and M2 velocity
|
M1 velocity |
M2 velocity |
1959 |
3.55622009569379 |
1.72148233931674 |
1959 |
3.6183586337761 |
1.74064354176175 |
1959 |
3.59844559585493 |
1.72002701789936 |
1959 |
3.65787598004277 |
1.72717074265201 |
1960 |
3.76697641172266 |
1.76431201874791 |
1960 |
3.76934097421206 |
1.74759216207241 |
1960 |
3.75443577004968 |
1.72612573417447 |
1960 |
3.71857988165681 |
1.68428387650086 |
1961 |
3.73056994818654 |
1.66930129623775 |
1961 |
3.78068739770869 |
1.6732201986755 |
1961 |
3.83193863319386 |
1.6775211152946 |
1961 |
3.88804422944022 |
1.6878 |
1962 |
3.95582513160907 |
1.69324973057706 |
1962 |
3.97817189631653 |
1.6785954139883 |
1962 |
4.02822030040967 |
1.67217760982523 |
1962 |
4.02874603893166 |
1.64851347596554 |
1963 |
4.04905913978495 |
1.63752491393369 |
1963 |
4.07014428412876 |
1.62582018088314 |
1963 |
4.11272247857616 |
1.62657512818285 |
1963 |
4.13511749347261 |
1.62020460358056 |
1964 |
4.21362162162164 |
1.63407680697636 |
1964 |
4.24457805454155 |
1.62959604286892 |
1964 |
4.24994717937885 |
1.62165430506289 |
1964 |
4.22690302398332 |
1.6010743344656 |
1965 |
4.32022355619955 |
1.61652854155372 |
1965 |
4.37188721959253 |
1.61839097973488 |
1965 |
4.42464917632706 |
1.62576595426693 |
1965 |
4.48051948051949 |
1.63985374771481 |
1966 |
4.54124116260802 |
1.65906155832974 |
1966 |
4.5457548086264 |
1.65865589111017 |
1966 |
4.63710777626195 |
1.67686235816478 |
1966 |
4.70404197434901 |
1.68901758303098 |
1967 |
4.72080046180489 |
1.68456468003296 |
1967 |
4.6819130764851 |
1.65419432709716 |
1967 |
4.66295264623955 |
1.63924794359577 |
1967 |
4.67403617759913 |
1.63540467970848 |
1968 |
4.7599639314698 |
1.65895663104965 |
1968 |
4.80904255319149 |
1.67715805095227 |
1968 |
4.79634782608697 |
1.67287395365765 |
1968 |
4.78140960163432 |
1.66504624140384 |
1969 |
4.82056856187291 |
1.68028678013523 |
1969 |
4.85783012607831 |
1.69197434564049 |
1969 |
4.93625103220479 |
1.71608198886146 |
1969 |
4.9369266055046 |
1.71543234473729 |
1970 |
4.94618252553089 |
1.73054673321234 |
1970 |
4.98680611423971 |
1.74598614162581 |
1970 |
5.00476417341594 |
1.73617232260908 |
1970 |
4.92683307332295 |
1.69425965665236 |
1971 |
5.05493325149605 |
1.71230313425852 |
1971 |
5.04342599549212 |
1.67979580601572 |
1971 |
5.04771048744458 |
1.66081842923793 |
1971 |
5.05517342309382 |
1.63450527610846 |
1972 |
5.12458734031861 |
1.6400845238642 |
1972 |
5.19248693687329 |
1.64768093210843 |
1972 |
5.18453451376402 |
1.62492954693258 |
1972 |
5.21172022684307 |
1.61965507112583 |
1973 |
5.30222398729146 |
1.64171824404639 |
1973 |
5.38335732042393 |
1.6592063876119 |
1973 |
5.39658517656191 |
1.65915056072536 |
1973 |
5.48652446033978 |
1.68645465253239 |
1974 |
5.45300326715256 |
1.67289899768697 |
1974 |
5.54512635379063 |
1.69672037481431 |
1974 |
5.60352912142153 |
1.71142684857165 |
1974 |
5.67959034381858 |
1.72917594654788 |
1975 |
5.70483460559799 |
1.71494135645079 |
1975 |
5.74719503461448 |
1.69184820801125 |
1975 |
5.84323374340949 |
1.69074821168254 |
1975 |
5.98359129524032 |
1.70204243768415 |
1976 |
6.09668539970181 |
1.70544451217557 |
1976 |
6.10351826792963 |
1.68590562217724 |
1976 |
6.1543871399866 |
1.67276533770255 |
1976 |
6.20037288879141 |
1.65539353478566 |
1977 |
6.22844596765557 |
1.64684393849291 |
1977 |
6.31890756302522 |
1.65883520847121 |
1977 |
6.40951396070321 |
1.67066497749266 |
1977 |
6.42296378943098 |
1.67227401167244 |
1978 |
6.40439058309326 |
1.67141079483589 |
1978 |
6.61442279732479 |
1.73667735532142 |
1978 |
6.67581475128642 |
1.75026232948583 |
1978 |
6.79924953095686 |
1.77760337469957 |
1979 |
6.83617021276596 |
1.78620806342455 |
1979 |
6.82196219621963 |
1.78953084787383 |
1979 |
6.86963798115034 |
1.79889286126168 |
1979 |
6.97761063494841 |
1.81322727272728 |
1980 |
7.01906725070855 |
1.82539647085101 |
1980 |
7.06918890904381 |
1.80117525364792 |
1980 |
6.97462437395658 |
1.78500320444349 |
1980 |
7.12090864680021 |
1.82953309346499 |
1981 |
7.35218054774717 |
1.88272798321748 |
1981 |
7.24410866671887 |
1.85291467248734 |
1981 |
7.44144284821987 |
1.87536893471332 |
1981 |
7.39285714285713 |
1.83835884451605 |
1982 |
7.19859865893167 |
1.79215590651612 |
1982 |
7.2487139342429 |
1.7855214588728 |
1982 |
7.24264543242645 |
1.77166973271291 |
1982 |
7.04387581514036 |
1.75255277498545 |
1983 |
6.98505612561119 |
1.69621057560454 |
1983 |
6.97742452578145 |
1.70350922966538 |
1983 |
7.02847625889882 |
1.72772372603796 |
1983 |
7.10342835130969 |
1.74466239868807 |
1984 |
7.21098484848485 |
1.76312052358608 |
1984 |
7.27024008933558 |
1.77084183326534 |
1984 |
7.3403076923077 |
1.77902398281828 |
1984 |
7.36669101533966 |
1.76581308820311 |
1985 |
7.32076813655761 |
1.74956797642993 |
1985 |
7.25031832388006 |
1.74348304129379 |
1985 |
7.14240187856425 |
1.74109004674745 |
1985 |
7.04212414392868 |
1.74014827947457 |
1986 |
6.99281953087601 |
1.74008338296605 |
1986 |
6.79238329238328 |
1.71101426103102 |
1986 |
6.61652916912199 |
1.69478755251441 |
1986 |
6.4140705882353 |
1.67709268988938 |
1987 |
6.30304825260856 |
1.67580893309267 |
1987 |
6.29678892919521 |
1.6888400418003 |
1987 |
6.39387161708791 |
1.70625872915448 |
1987 |
6.4831386086033 |
1.72900020064442 |
1988 |
6.52361910620908 |
1.72191099203174 |
1988 |
6.54756050213537 |
1.72701826250213 |
1988 |
6.56974961676036 |
1.73884230457128 |
1988 |
6.68945602785681 |
1.75995441748224 |
1989 |
6.83566418703508 |
1.78674681392429 |
1989 |
7.02874081711561 |
1.8054292650629 |
1989 |
7.09892224788298 |
1.79703790314723 |
1989 |
7.07290390707497 |
1.77797007889065 |
1990 |
7.14972234979751 |
1.79257607637471 |
1990 |
7.1886418120195 |
1.80568735140522 |
1990 |
7.1763022323984 |
1.80295839753467 |
1990 |
7.11019216735587 |
1.78804098486007 |
1991 |
7.06019370847674 |
1.77665649454634 |
1991 |
7.01769529564092 |
1.78085328819635 |
1991 |
6.96624846059112 |
1.79576186271689 |
1991 |
6.8645309096372 |
1.80750593354431 |
1992 |
6.69892511903043 |
1.82106192087072 |
1992 |
6.62978305132345 |
1.85064037864163 |
1992 |
6.55353846153845 |
1.87610472229019 |
1992 |
6.39889633425306 |
1.89304906371773 |
1993 |
6.32848762248584 |
1.91311168709684 |
1993 |
6.23097911309041 |
1.92755690086733 |
1993 |
6.11194370830668 |
1.93717777906505 |
1993 |
6.07146251633602 |
1.96176546799873 |
1994 |
6.08793498034156 |
1.98495183247075 |
1994 |
6.16209359965013 |
2.01565182556942 |
1994 |
6.19617723718506 |
2.03946352483628 |
1994 |
6.29949591517468 |
2.07312561970864 |
1995 |
6.36282107096212 |
2.08747690959989 |
1995 |
6.41699380615895 |
2.08153563175023 |
1995 |
6.51271519706371 |
2.07186544342508 |
1995 |
6.65749676356363 |
2.07671763431781 |
1996 |
6.81069995541684 |
2.07734776578096 |
1996 |
6.97154774318489 |
2.09594783418724 |
1996 |
7.15328842028945 |
2.10092899035518 |
1996 |
7.40288499984626 |
2.11131578947368 |
1997 |
7.5526747315987 |
2.11597971655181 |
1997 |
7.77529356505401 |
2.12816798800086 |
1997 |
7.86412941836543 |
2.12885506231384 |
1997 |
7.95371236207226 |
2.12043477176975 |
1998 |
7.9886680289802 |
2.10467155547217 |
1998 |
8.0754448398577 |
2.09050708964191 |
1998 |
8.21721362229107 |
2.0902189321153 |
1998 |
8.26618441534658 |
2.07858442126592 |
1999 |
8.33560104476708 |
2.07000633541497 |
1999 |
8.4007626656982 |
2.06362352241469 |
1999 |
8.56566484517304 |
2.06763054916387 |
1999 |
8.63820541253337 |
2.08399430252988 |
2000 |
8.72241353496038 |
2.07364561828149 |
2000 |
8.98311563233615 |
2.09082057245331 |
2000 |
9.09992429977293 |
2.08152960651628 |
2000 |
9.26845187263627 |
2.07379555070286 |
2001 |
9.2153088359725 |
2.02644082213082 |
2001 |
9.19512630545381 |
2.00250767855059 |
2001 |
8.84971660846172 |
1.95833201365707 |
2001 |
8.84121256889601 |
1.92689164086687 |
2002 |
8.81133025597986 |
1.914516874149 |
2002 |
8.91615272482624 |
1.91771579480501 |
2002 |
8.96790502793299 |
1.90008108092113 |
2002 |
8.88920384181415 |
1.87205939457868 |
2003 |
8.81794622610949 |
1.86448398089009 |
2003 |
8.69838803139654 |
1.84837155154561 |
2003 |
8.70555326389607 |
1.85219051171363 |
2003 |
8.77719689398016 |
1.88177862268277 |
2004 |
8.79064126534948 |
1.89702346224939 |
2004 |
8.81946836390865 |
1.88694923128681 |
2004 |
8.84108899903831 |
1.89527021669143 |
2004 |
8.85756308649781 |
1.90058058559334 |
2005 |
9.03239535958367 |
1.92533204765312 |
2005 |
9.15305301645331 |
1.93366393227355 |
2005 |
9.27651312915597 |
1.94280079897942 |
2005 |
9.39065946050755 |
1.94280900735571 |
2006 |
9.54334869579907 |
1.95499369763476 |
2006 |
9.66834874568411 |
1.96187312599211 |
2006 |
9.84358536585371 |
1.9555433881995 |
2006 |
9.94435379782291 |
1.94616814412353 |
2007 |
10.0746835443038 |
1.94405535278948 |
2007 |
10.1696737787896 |
1.94438862212509 |
2007 |
10.3397258276214 |
1.94286901755171 |
2007 |
10.4220052335724 |
1.93615862441484 |
2008 |
10.4128513474355 |
1.9012592259464 |
2008 |
10.4518780188883 |
1.89106672347973 |
2008 |
10.2624635499953 |
1.87843165950707 |
2008 |
9.37078725071843 |
1.78886579942645 |
2009 |
9.05152050392632 |
1.71269806116491 |
2009 |
8.76999359543825 |
1.69818657513531 |
Figure 5 responses (monetary policy shock)
Dm (money growth) |
pi (inflation) |
R (nominal interest rate) |
Dx (nominal income growth) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-4 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
-0.511 |
-0.1262 |
0.724999999999999 |
-1.6109 |
1.1142 |
-0.0914999999999999 |
0.525599999999999 |
0.316699999999999 |
0.807799999999999 |
-0.0664 |
0.381099999999999 |
0.2296 |
0.5857 |
-0.0480999999999999 |
0.276299999999999 |
0.1665 |
0.424599999999999 |
-0.0349 |
0.2003 |
0.1207 |
0.3079 |
-0.0253 |
0.1452 |
0.0874999999999999 |
0.2232 |
-0.0183 |
0.1053 |
0.0633999999999999 |
0.1618 |
-0.0132999999999999 |
0.0763 |
0.0459999999999999 |
0.1173 |
-0.00959999999999999 |
0.0553 |
0.0333999999999999 |
0.0850999999999999 |
-0.007 |
0.0400999999999999 |
0.0241999999999999 |
0.0616999999999999 |
-0.0051 |
0.0291 |
0.0175 |
0.0446999999999999 |
-0.0037 |
0.0211 |
0.0126999999999999 |
0.0323999999999999 |
-0.0027 |
0.0152999999999999 |
0.00919999999999999 |
0.0235 |
-0.0019 |
0.0111 |
0.0067 |
0.017 |
-0.0014 |
0.008 |
0.00479999999999999 |
0.0124 |
-0.001 |
0.00579999999999999 |
0.0035 |
0.00899999999999999 |
-0.000699999999999999 |
0.00419999999999999 |
0.0025 |
0.00649999999999999 |
-0.0005 |
0.00309999999999999 |
0.0018 |
Response dates depicted refer to date 1 expectation for periods 0 through 19 for a shock occurring in period 1
Figure 6 responses (IS shock)
Dm |
pi |
R |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.9 |
0 |
0.025 |
5.1931 |
1.55539999999999 |
0.666699999999999 |
-1.64969999999999 |
1.3965 |
1.09959999999999 |
-0.8508 |
1.2678 |
1.3826 |
-0.288899999999999 |
1.1617 |
1.5585 |
0.1022 |
1.0727 |
1.65819999999999 |
0.370099999999999 |
0.9967 |
1.70409999999999 |
0.549499999999999 |
0.930599999999999 |
1.71229999999999 |
0.665599999999999 |
0.872199999999999 |
1.69439999999999 |
0.7364 |
0.8201 |
1.6588 |
0.775 |
0.7729 |
1.61139999999999 |
0.7909 |
0.7297 |
1.5566 |
0.791 |
0.689999999999999 |
1.4975 |
0.7802 |
0.6531 |
1.43619999999999 |
0.7621 |
0.6188 |
1.3742 |
0.739099999999999 |
0.5866 |
1.3126 |
0.713099999999999 |
0.5564 |
1.2522 |
0.6854 |
0.5279 |
1.1933 |
0.6568 |
0.501 |
1.1364 |
Figure 7 responses (natural output shock)
Dm |
pi |
R |
Dx |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.261 |
-0.181299999999999 |
-0.0482 |
0.0683 |
0.0229 |
-0.166199999999999 |
-0.0806999999999999 |
-0.1072 |
-0.0318999999999999 |
-0.1535 |
-0.1019 |
-0.1171 |
-0.0691999999999999 |
-0.1426 |
-0.1152 |
-0.1223 |
-0.094 |
-0.1331 |
-0.1227 |
-0.1242 |
-0.1097 |
-0.124799999999999 |
-0.1263 |
-0.123799999999999 |
-0.1191 |
-0.1174 |
-0.1269 |
-0.1218 |
-0.1239 |
-0.1106 |
-0.1257 |
-0.1188 |
-0.1255 |
-0.1044 |
-0.1231 |
-0.115 |
-0.124799999999999 |
-0.0986999999999999 |
-0.1196 |
-0.1109 |
-0.1227 |
-0.0935 |
-0.1155 |
-0.1065 |
-0.1195 |
-0.0885999999999999 |
-0.1111 |
-0.101999999999999 |
-0.1157 |
-0.084 |
-0.1066 |
-0.0975 |
-0.1115 |
-0.0796 |
-0.101999999999999 |
-0.0931 |
-0.107 |
-0.0756 |
-0.0974 |
-0.0888 |
-0.102499999999999 |
-0.0717 |
-0.0929999999999999 |
-0.0845999999999999 |
-0.098 |
-0.0680999999999999 |
-0.0885999999999999 |
-0.0805 |
-0.0935 |
-0.0646 |
-0.0844 |
-0.0766 |
Figure 8 data (annual data)
|
M1 growth |
M1 growth-per_unit_of_output |
CPI inflation |
M1 growth-lagged_2_years |
1960 |
-0.0712250712250672 |
-2.48569686645915 |
1.45797598627788 |
#N/A |
1961 |
1.96008553100499 |
-0.362868538878802 |
1.07072414764733 |
#N/A |
1962 |
2.4117441454037 |
-3.43816507784794 |
1.19877334820173 |
-0.0712250712250672 |
1963 |
3.05460750853242 |
-1.26142884921724 |
1.23966942148761 |
1.96008553100499 |
1964 |
3.82513661202186 |
-1.85535902668678 |
1.27891156462594 |
2.4117441454037 |
1965 |
4.25837320574163 |
-2.03161147174943 |
1.58516926383643 |
3.05460750853242 |
1966 |
4.60455866605475 |
-1.79363970553034 |
3.01507537688444 |
3.82513661202186 |
1967 |
3.93389880081895 |
1.37147014807586 |
2.77278562259307 |
4.25837320574163 |
1968 |
6.97903475446743 |
2.03823596058641 |
4.27179615288533 |
4.60455866605475 |
1969 |
5.94502170195976 |
2.75309791704923 |
5.46238620028749 |
3.93389880081895 |
1970 |
3.8361266294227 |
3.63914950450217 |
5.83825533848259 |
6.97903475446743 |
1971 |
6.70731707317075 |
3.24010902742431 |
4.29276668813059 |
5.94502170195976 |
1972 |
7.12605042016807 |
1.72330363821414 |
3.27227824655281 |
3.8361266294227 |
1973 |
7.23773663842694 |
1.36441500394893 |
6.17776006377033 |
6.70731707317075 |
1974 |
5.00341363503364 |
5.58534629408791 |
11.0548048048047 |
7.12605042016807 |
1975 |
4.52349990711502 |
4.74627773251393 |
9.14314686496551 |
7.23773663842694 |
1976 |
5.63405314138449 |
0.255064342361977 |
5.74481263549074 |
5.00341363503364 |
1977 |
7.63018423487846 |
2.89883522821666 |
6.50168399472835 |
4.52349990711502 |
1978 |
8.22260434578707 |
2.50611162997376 |
7.63096383885604 |
5.63405314138449 |
1979 |
7.61952910587895 |
4.35877684910988 |
11.2544711292796 |
7.63018423487846 |
1980 |
6.21434803033353 |
6.50539608111027 |
13.5492019749684 |
8.22260434578707 |
1981 |
7.39874897327352 |
4.74032857678783 |
10.3347153402771 |
7.61952910587895 |
1982 |
6.59489351688435 |
8.70649243970942 |
6.13142700027496 |
6.21434803033353 |
1983 |
11.0822893095646 |
6.27962131409054 |
3.21243523316062 |
7.39874897327352 |
1984 |
7.05023103294082 |
-0.125947961209139 |
4.30053547523424 |
6.59489351688435 |
1985 |
8.96686159844056 |
4.63637823122123 |
3.54564415209375 |
11.0822893095646 |
1986 |
13.5105204872647 |
9.71108558151723 |
1.89804772234277 |
7.05023103294082 |
1987 |
11.6060037523452 |
8.14487927351459 |
3.66456321751685 |
8.96686159844056 |
1988 |
4.19594526443199 |
0.0822451703293314 |
4.07774110744406 |
13.5105204872647 |
1989 |
0.955116001419749 |
-2.52702193494594 |
4.82700303008954 |
11.6060037523452 |
1990 |
3.63409722888103 |
1.72495641434831 |
5.39795643990315 |
4.19594526443199 |
1991 |
5.97396989884034 |
6.22253955288061 |
4.23496396453862 |
0.955116001419749 |
1992 |
12.4356101394022 |
8.74523763781332 |
3.02881967814965 |
3.63409722888103 |
1993 |
11.6529481803593 |
8.55751775881168 |
2.95165696638553 |
5.97396989884034 |
1994 |
6.19668026706232 |
2.03893543782101 |
2.60744159215462 |
12.4356101394022 |
1995 |
-0.19428496583642 |
-2.64176777840099 |
2.80541968853663 |
11.6529481803593 |
1996 |
-3.16054243219598 |
-6.65271252776268 |
2.93120419993433 |
6.19668026706232 |
1997 |
-3.3156408808583 |
-7.44034832569834 |
2.33768993730736 |
-0.19428496583642 |
1998 |
0.978811876562279 |
-3.23571684006344 |
1.55227909874374 |
-3.16054243219598 |
1999 |
2.00111044278904 |
-2.69500183320459 |
2.18802719697353 |
-3.3156408808583 |
2000 |
0.12020593771972 |
-3.85927347519766 |
3.37685727149932 |
0.978811876562279 |
2001 |
3.32548024646612 |
2.22185572183697 |
2.82617111885402 |
2.00111044278904 |
2002 |
4.90879593089539 |
3.03999733290543 |
1.58603162650608 |
0.12020593771972 |
2003 |
6.45336565589014 |
3.86680968376014 |
2.2700949733611 |
3.32548024646612 |
2004 |
5.56940654508335 |
1.92727148831264 |
2.67723669309179 |
4.90879593089539 |
2005 |
2.03436477238916 |
-0.989916231831078 |
3.39274684549544 |
6.45336565589014 |
2006 |
0.191361399671952 |
-2.41684761998012 |
3.22594410070407 |
5.56940654508335 |
2007 |
-0.0854934060936922 |
-2.18041055493416 |
2.85267248150138 |
2.03436477238916 |
2008 |
4.0653218759103 |
3.61113735336778 |
3.83910029665098 |
0.191361399671952 |
Figure 9 data (annual data)
|
M1 growth |
M1 growth-per_unit_of_output |
CPI inflation |
M1 growth-lagged_2_years |
1960 |
-0.0712250712250672 |
-2.48569686645915 |
1.45797598627788 |
#N/A |
1961 |
1.96008553100499 |
-0.362868538878802 |
1.07072414764733 |
#N/A |
1962 |
2.4117441454037 |
-3.43816507784794 |
1.19877334820173 |
-0.0712250712250672 |
1963 |
3.05460750853242 |
-1.26142884921724 |
1.23966942148761 |
1.96008553100499 |
1964 |
3.82513661202186 |
-1.85535902668678 |
1.27891156462594 |
2.4117441454037 |
1965 |
4.25837320574163 |
-2.03161147174943 |
1.58516926383643 |
3.05460750853242 |
1966 |
4.60455866605475 |
-1.79363970553034 |
3.01507537688444 |
3.82513661202186 |
1967 |
3.93389880081895 |
1.37147014807586 |
2.77278562259307 |
4.25837320574163 |
1968 |
6.97903475446743 |
2.03823596058641 |
4.27179615288533 |
4.60455866605475 |
1969 |
5.94502170195976 |
2.75309791704923 |
5.46238620028749 |
3.93389880081895 |
1970 |
3.8361266294227 |
3.63914950450217 |
5.83825533848259 |
6.97903475446743 |
1971 |
6.70731707317075 |
3.24010902742431 |
4.29276668813059 |
5.94502170195976 |
1972 |
7.12605042016807 |
1.72330363821414 |
3.27227824655281 |
3.8361266294227 |
1973 |
7.23773663842694 |
1.36441500394893 |
6.17776006377033 |
6.70731707317075 |
1974 |
5.00341363503364 |
5.58534629408791 |
11.0548048048047 |
7.12605042016807 |
1975 |
4.52349990711502 |
4.74627773251393 |
9.14314686496551 |
7.23773663842694 |
1976 |
5.63405314138449 |
0.255064342361977 |
5.74481263549074 |
5.00341363503364 |
1977 |
7.63018423487846 |
2.89883522821666 |
6.50168399472835 |
4.52349990711502 |
1978 |
8.22260434578707 |
2.50611162997376 |
7.63096383885604 |
5.63405314138449 |
1979 |
7.61952910587895 |
4.35877684910988 |
11.2544711292796 |
7.63018423487846 |
1980 |
6.21434803033353 |
6.50539608111027 |
13.5492019749684 |
8.22260434578707 |
1981 |
7.39874897327352 |
4.74032857678783 |
10.3347153402771 |
7.61952910587895 |
1982 |
6.59489351688435 |
8.70649243970942 |
6.13142700027496 |
6.21434803033353 |
1983 |
11.0822893095646 |
6.27962131409054 |
3.21243523316062 |
7.39874897327352 |
1984 |
7.05023103294082 |
-0.125947961209139 |
4.30053547523424 |
6.59489351688435 |
1985 |
8.96686159844056 |
4.63637823122123 |
3.54564415209375 |
11.0822893095646 |
1986 |
13.5105204872647 |
9.71108558151723 |
1.89804772234277 |
7.05023103294082 |
1987 |
11.6060037523452 |
8.14487927351459 |
3.66456321751685 |
8.96686159844056 |
1988 |
4.19594526443199 |
0.0822451703293314 |
4.07774110744406 |
13.5105204872647 |
1989 |
0.955116001419749 |
-2.52702193494594 |
4.82700303008954 |
11.6060037523452 |
1990 |
3.63409722888103 |
1.72495641434831 |
5.39795643990315 |
4.19594526443199 |
1991 |
5.97396989884034 |
6.22253955288061 |
4.23496396453862 |
0.955116001419749 |
1992 |
12.4356101394022 |
8.74523763781332 |
3.02881967814965 |
3.63409722888103 |
1993 |
11.6529481803593 |
8.55751775881168 |
2.95165696638553 |
5.97396989884034 |
1994 |
6.19668026706232 |
2.03893543782101 |
2.60744159215462 |
12.4356101394022 |
1995 |
-0.19428496583642 |
-2.64176777840099 |
2.80541968853663 |
11.6529481803593 |
1996 |
-3.16054243219598 |
-6.65271252776268 |
2.93120419993433 |
6.19668026706232 |
1997 |
-3.3156408808583 |
-7.44034832569834 |
2.33768993730736 |
-0.19428496583642 |
1998 |
0.978811876562279 |
-3.23571684006344 |
1.55227909874374 |
-3.16054243219598 |
1999 |
2.00111044278904 |
-2.69500183320459 |
2.18802719697353 |
-3.3156408808583 |
2000 |
0.12020593771972 |
-3.85927347519766 |
3.37685727149932 |
0.978811876562279 |
2001 |
3.32548024646612 |
2.22185572183697 |
2.82617111885402 |
2.00111044278904 |
2002 |
4.90879593089539 |
3.03999733290543 |
1.58603162650608 |
0.12020593771972 |
2003 |
6.45336565589014 |
3.86680968376014 |
2.2700949733611 |
3.32548024646612 |
2004 |
5.56940654508335 |
1.92727148831264 |
2.67723669309179 |
4.90879593089539 |
2005 |
2.03436477238916 |
-0.989916231831078 |
3.39274684549544 |
6.45336565589014 |
2006 |
0.191361399671952 |
-2.41684761998012 |
3.22594410070407 |
5.56940654508335 |
2007 |
-0.0854934060936922 |
-2.18041055493416 |
2.85267248150138 |
2.03436477238916 |
2008 |
4.0653218759103 |
3.61113735336778 |
3.83910029665098 |
0.191361399671952 |