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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2010-60 ♣

The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to U.S. Wage Inequality over Three Decades: A Reassessment

David Autor, Alan Manning, and Christopher L. Smith

Figure 1: Share of hours at or below the minimum wage

year share female share male share, male/female pooled
1979 0.127 0.047 0.078
1980 0.128 0.054 0.083
1981 0.130 0.055 0.085
1982 0.106 0.049 0.072
1983 0.098 0.048 0.069
1984 0.089 0.041 0.061
1985 0.080 0.037 0.055
1986 0.072 0.034 0.050
1987 0.064 0.031 0.045
1988 0.061 0.030 0.043
1989 0.054 0.028 0.039
1990 0.057 0.029 0.041
1991 0.076 0.041 0.056
1992 0.064 0.035 0.048
1993 0.057 0.033 0.044
1994 0.058 0.031 0.043
1995 0.052 0.028 0.038
1996 0.045 0.027 0.035
1997 0.058 0.035 0.045
1998 0.065 0.039 0.050
1999 0.054 0.031 0.041
2000 0.049 0.028 0.037
2001 0.046 0.028 0.036
2002 0.043 0.028 0.035
2003 0.040 0.026 0.032
2004 0.039 0.025 0.031
2005 0.042 0.025 0.032
2006 0.041 0.025 0.032
2007 0.055 0.036 0.044
2008 0.057 0.038 0.046
2009 0.061 0.042 0.051

Note: Lines are estimates of the share of hours worked for reported wages equal to or less than the applicable state or federal minimum wage, and correspond with data from column 4 and 8 of Table 1A, and column 4 of Table 1B.

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2A: Trends in state and federal minimum wages, and log(p10)-log(p50)

year Real value of average state/federal mins Real value of fed. min. log(p10)-log(p50), male log(p10)-log(p50), female
1974 2.164 2.164 -0.644 -0.440
1975 2.125 2.125 -0.687 -0.457
1976 2.160 2.161 -0.642 -0.425
1977 2.097 2.098 -0.675 -0.451
1978 2.165 2.165 -0.693 -0.374
1979 2.149 2.149 -0.668 -0.382
1980 2.088 2.088 -0.679 -0.421
1981 2.067 2.068 -0.680 -0.400
1982 2.008 2.008 -0.693 -0.496
1983 1.976 1.977 -0.734 -0.531
1984 1.934 1.934 -0.783 -0.539
1985 1.899 1.900 -0.750 -0.580
1986 1.881 1.884 -0.767 -0.603
1987 1.845 1.848 -0.773 -0.624
1988 1.805 1.843 -0.744 -0.616
1989 1.757 1.805 -0.693 -0.629
1990 1.831 1.850 -0.742 -0.633
1991 1.901 1.903 -0.780 -0.606
1992 1.871 1.880 -0.745 -0.600
1993 1.842 1.852 -0.731 -0.597
1994 1.817 1.829 -0.731 -0.588
1995 1.789 1.802 -0.721 -0.604
1996 1.760 1.775 -0.693 -0.654
1997 1.848 1.862 -0.734 -0.616
1998 1.914 1.930 -0.693 -0.563
1999 1.892 1.914 -0.682 -0.600
2000 1.859 1.889 -0.714 -0.592
2001 1.831 1.877 -0.693 -0.613
2002 1.815 1.875 -0.693 -0.601
2003 1.793 1.855 -0.696 -0.605
2004 1.766 1.833 -0.693 -0.619
2005 1.733 1.828 -0.699 -0.657
2006 1.701 1.824 -0.744 -0.658
2007 1.673 1.897 -0.708 -0.652
2008 1.763 1.913 -0.693 -0.629
2009 1.879 1.968 -0.721 -0.634

Note: Annual data on state and federal minimum wages and log percentiles. Minimum wages are in 2009 dollars.

Return to Figure 2

Figure 2B: Trends in state and federal minimum wages, and log(p90)-log(p50)

year Real value of average state/federal mins Real value of fed. min. log(p90)-log(p50), male log(p90)-log(p50), female
1974 2.164 2.164 0.576 0.534
1975 2.125 2.125 0.566 0.577
1976 2.160 2.161 0.633 0.589
1977 2.097 2.098 0.598 0.588
1978 2.165 2.165 0.560 0.591
1979 2.149 2.149 0.585 0.593
1980 2.088 2.088 0.580 0.587
1981 2.067 2.068 0.612 0.648
1982 2.008 2.008 0.629 0.613
1983 1.976 1.977 0.652 0.643
1984 1.934 1.934 0.664 0.653
1985 1.899 1.900 0.681 0.673
1986 1.881 1.884 0.659 0.655
1987 1.845 1.848 0.679 0.666
1988 1.805 1.843 0.693 0.678
1989 1.757 1.805 0.693 0.693
1990 1.831 1.850 0.724 0.693
1991 1.901 1.903 0.724 0.723
1992 1.871 1.880 0.742 0.729
1993 1.842 1.852 0.756 0.723
1994 1.817 1.829 0.764 0.759
1995 1.789 1.802 0.747 0.766
1996 1.760 1.775 0.772 0.758
1997 1.848 1.862 0.767 0.742
1998 1.914 1.930 0.779 0.789
1999 1.892 1.914 0.771 0.757
2000 1.859 1.889 0.788 0.759
2001 1.831 1.877 0.808 0.759
2002 1.815 1.875 0.836 0.779
2003 1.793 1.855 0.829 0.773
2004 1.766 1.833 0.819 0.797
2005 1.733 1.828 0.843 0.797
2006 1.701 1.824 0.827 0.795
2007 1.673 1.897 0.821 0.800
2008 1.763 1.913 0.828 0.808
2009 1.879 1.968 0.843 0.831

Note: Annual data on state and federal minimum wages and log percentiles. Minimum wages are in 2009 dollars.

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3A: OLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50) or log(min) and its square, 1979-2009 A - Females, no state fixed effects

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.613 0.687 0.539
6 0.614 0.690 0.537
7 0.597 0.668 0.526
8 0.564 0.634 0.493
9 0.529 0.596 0.462
10 0.507 0.577 0.436
11 0.480 0.562 0.399
12 0.453 0.534 0.372
13 0.425 0.499 0.352
14 0.393 0.460 0.325
15 0.367 0.433 0.301
16 0.343 0.405 0.280
17 0.320 0.382 0.259
18 0.302 0.363 0.242
19 0.291 0.350 0.231
20 0.274 0.331 0.218
21 0.253 0.307 0.198
22 0.238 0.293 0.183
23 0.219 0.268 0.169
24 0.204 0.251 0.158
25 0.199 0.246 0.151
26 0.187 0.236 0.139
27 0.173 0.215 0.130
28 0.163 0.202 0.124
29 0.156 0.195 0.116
30 0.146 0.184 0.107
31 0.134 0.168 0.099
32 0.123 0.154 0.092
33 0.117 0.148 0.087
34 0.112 0.143 0.082
35 0.100 0.129 0.072
36 0.094 0.120 0.068
37 0.083 0.105 0.061
38 0.077 0.098 0.055
39 0.071 0.090 0.051
40 0.062 0.078 0.045
41 0.054 0.072 0.035
42 0.048 0.066 0.030
43 0.049 0.065 0.033
44 0.042 0.056 0.029
45 0.032 0.041 0.022
46 0.029 0.039 0.019
47 0.025 0.033 0.016
48 0.016 0.024 0.008
49 0.008 0.014 0.002
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 -0.003 0.000 -0.006
52 -0.007 -0.001 -0.013
53 -0.009 -0.002 -0.015
54 -0.009 0.000 -0.018
55 -0.012 -0.001 -0.022
56 -0.017 -0.004 -0.030
57 -0.020 -0.005 -0.036
58 -0.025 -0.009 -0.042
59 -0.029 -0.011 -0.047
60 -0.030 -0.009 -0.050
61 -0.031 -0.009 -0.054
62 -0.033 -0.009 -0.057
63 -0.033 -0.009 -0.057
64 -0.037 -0.011 -0.064
65 -0.038 -0.012 -0.065
66 -0.040 -0.010 -0.071
67 -0.044 -0.013 -0.076
68 -0.044 -0.012 -0.077
69 -0.045 -0.011 -0.079
70 -0.045 -0.009 -0.080
71 -0.047 -0.010 -0.083
72 -0.048 -0.010 -0.087
73 -0.047 -0.007 -0.087
74 -0.046 -0.005 -0.086
75 -0.041 0.001 -0.083
76 -0.044 0.001 -0.089
77 -0.044 0.003 -0.091
78 -0.038 0.010 -0.086
79 -0.040 0.009 -0.088
80 -0.042 0.010 -0.093
81 -0.040 0.011 -0.091
82 -0.035 0.018 -0.089
83 -0.035 0.020 -0.090
84 -0.036 0.022 -0.094
85 -0.034 0.026 -0.095
86 -0.030 0.031 -0.092
87 -0.027 0.036 -0.090
88 -0.024 0.041 -0.089
89 -0.025 0.043 -0.093
90 -0.026 0.046 -0.097
91 -0.024 0.051 -0.098
92 -0.024 0.054 -0.103
93 -0.033 0.052 -0.118
94 -0.039 0.051 -0.128
95 -0.049 0.043 -0.140

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 1 of Table 2. Panels B and D correspond with column 2 of Table 2.

Return to Figure 3

Figure 3B: OLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50) or log(min) and its square, 1979-2009 B - Females, state fixed effects and trends

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.438 0.511 0.366
6 0.410 0.478 0.341
7 0.377 0.437 0.318
8 0.339 0.390 0.289
9 0.292 0.333 0.251
10 0.303 0.346 0.260
11 0.300 0.357 0.243
12 0.269 0.321 0.216
13 0.247 0.289 0.205
14 0.225 0.268 0.183
15 0.199 0.239 0.159
16 0.171 0.224 0.119
17 0.169 0.211 0.128
18 0.149 0.185 0.113
19 0.151 0.181 0.120
20 0.137 0.173 0.102
21 0.137 0.179 0.096
22 0.145 0.180 0.110
23 0.138 0.172 0.103
24 0.124 0.161 0.087
25 0.113 0.153 0.073
26 0.090 0.131 0.048
27 0.085 0.119 0.052
28 0.093 0.125 0.062
29 0.085 0.118 0.052
30 0.083 0.109 0.058
31 0.077 0.108 0.046
32 0.072 0.098 0.046
33 0.072 0.100 0.045
34 0.073 0.093 0.053
35 0.075 0.099 0.052
36 0.082 0.099 0.064
37 0.074 0.090 0.059
38 0.069 0.090 0.049
39 0.058 0.082 0.034
40 0.054 0.077 0.032
41 0.049 0.082 0.016
42 0.058 0.083 0.034
43 0.058 0.076 0.041
44 0.044 0.072 0.015
45 0.046 0.069 0.023
46 0.061 0.084 0.038
47 0.053 0.072 0.035
48 0.037 0.051 0.022
49 0.022 0.032 0.012
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 0.014 0.030 -0.002
52 0.023 0.045 0.002
53 0.042 0.060 0.024
54 0.046 0.064 0.027
55 0.037 0.058 0.016
56 0.044 0.073 0.014
57 0.061 0.094 0.028
58 0.062 0.087 0.036
59 0.064 0.091 0.037
60 0.061 0.094 0.029
61 0.061 0.095 0.027
62 0.072 0.103 0.041
63 0.068 0.092 0.044
64 0.059 0.096 0.022
65 0.072 0.100 0.045
66 0.072 0.103 0.041
67 0.080 0.107 0.054
68 0.070 0.095 0.044
69 0.076 0.100 0.052
70 0.076 0.103 0.048
71 0.068 0.105 0.032
72 0.076 0.107 0.045
73 0.077 0.107 0.047
74 0.080 0.115 0.044
75 0.106 0.132 0.079
76 0.090 0.124 0.056
77 0.096 0.139 0.053
78 0.106 0.146 0.066
79 0.105 0.152 0.058
80 0.109 0.160 0.057
81 0.108 0.155 0.062
82 0.116 0.162 0.071
83 0.112 0.165 0.060
84 0.123 0.173 0.072
85 0.134 0.178 0.089
86 0.134 0.185 0.082
87 0.142 0.192 0.091
88 0.151 0.194 0.108
89 0.157 0.200 0.114
90 0.157 0.204 0.110
91 0.167 0.215 0.119
92 0.156 0.209 0.104
93 0.151 0.209 0.092
94 0.166 0.219 0.113
95 0.186 0.245 0.128

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 1 of Table 2. Panels B and D correspond with column 2 of Table 2.

Return to Figure 3

Figure 3C: OLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50) or log(min) and its square, 1979-2009 C - Males, no state fixed effects

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.520 0.600 0.439
6 0.473 0.562 0.385
7 0.436 0.521 0.351
8 0.408 0.494 0.322
9 0.386 0.465 0.307
10 0.353 0.430 0.276
11 0.324 0.401 0.247
12 0.299 0.374 0.225
13 0.281 0.356 0.207
14 0.280 0.352 0.208
15 0.271 0.340 0.202
16 0.262 0.330 0.195
17 0.239 0.308 0.171
18 0.224 0.287 0.161
19 0.205 0.268 0.141
20 0.188 0.249 0.127
21 0.177 0.237 0.117
22 0.164 0.221 0.107
23 0.149 0.204 0.094
24 0.133 0.187 0.079
25 0.115 0.164 0.066
26 0.106 0.153 0.059
27 0.101 0.145 0.057
28 0.095 0.137 0.053
29 0.089 0.128 0.051
30 0.078 0.115 0.042
31 0.066 0.104 0.029
32 0.057 0.092 0.022
33 0.054 0.088 0.021
34 0.047 0.082 0.012
35 0.039 0.071 0.008
36 0.032 0.061 0.003
37 0.034 0.060 0.008
38 0.030 0.053 0.008
39 0.030 0.053 0.008
40 0.027 0.048 0.006
41 0.024 0.042 0.006
42 0.015 0.032 -0.002
43 0.014 0.027 0.002
44 0.008 0.022 -0.006
45 0.006 0.019 -0.008
46 0.010 0.021 -0.000
47 0.012 0.020 0.004
48 0.009 0.015 0.002
49 0.003 0.008 -0.002
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 0.003 0.010 -0.003
52 0.007 0.014 -0.001
53 0.015 0.024 0.005
54 0.013 0.026 0.001
55 0.008 0.022 -0.006
56 0.010 0.028 -0.008
57 0.014 0.034 -0.005
58 0.017 0.040 -0.005
59 0.022 0.047 -0.003
60 0.024 0.050 -0.002
61 0.029 0.061 -0.004
62 0.036 0.069 0.003
63 0.042 0.078 0.005
64 0.045 0.085 0.004
65 0.044 0.088 -0.001
66 0.055 0.101 0.008
67 0.063 0.113 0.013
68 0.065 0.118 0.011
69 0.069 0.125 0.014
70 0.073 0.133 0.012
71 0.083 0.146 0.019
72 0.088 0.157 0.020
73 0.088 0.155 0.020
74 0.097 0.171 0.024
75 0.104 0.182 0.026
76 0.108 0.190 0.025
77 0.113 0.198 0.028
78 0.116 0.204 0.028
79 0.120 0.212 0.027
80 0.120 0.215 0.024
81 0.123 0.223 0.024
82 0.124 0.226 0.023
83 0.122 0.228 0.017
84 0.124 0.233 0.015
85 0.126 0.239 0.013
86 0.124 0.242 0.006
87 0.130 0.250 0.010
88 0.127 0.251 0.004
89 0.132 0.261 0.002
90 0.131 0.267 -0.004
91 0.135 0.275 -0.006
92 0.139 0.284 -0.007
93 0.138 0.292 -0.017
94 0.140 0.299 -0.019
95 0.139 0.309 -0.031

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 1 of Table 2. Panels B and D correspond with column 2 of Table 2.

Return to Figure 3

Figure 3D: OLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50) or log(min) and its square, 1979-2009 D - Males, state fixed effects and trends

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.264 0.318 0.211
6 0.212 0.266 0.159
7 0.190 0.257 0.123
8 0.175 0.235 0.114
9 0.196 0.251 0.140
10 0.157 0.206 0.108
11 0.125 0.179 0.071
12 0.106 0.169 0.043
13 0.097 0.175 0.018
14 0.109 0.176 0.042
15 0.091 0.151 0.030
16 0.098 0.151 0.045
17 0.100 0.151 0.050
18 0.096 0.139 0.053
19 0.075 0.129 0.021
20 0.072 0.125 0.018
21 0.075 0.123 0.026
22 0.082 0.125 0.038
23 0.084 0.118 0.049
24 0.084 0.124 0.045
25 0.057 0.110 0.003
26 0.059 0.113 0.005
27 0.065 0.106 0.023
28 0.069 0.103 0.035
29 0.070 0.109 0.031
30 0.065 0.101 0.030
31 0.059 0.094 0.024
32 0.049 0.090 0.009
33 0.044 0.086 0.002
34 0.046 0.079 0.014
35 0.040 0.070 0.010
36 0.037 0.075 -0.001
37 0.036 0.080 -0.008
38 0.054 0.078 0.030
39 0.060 0.079 0.042
40 0.067 0.092 0.042
41 0.059 0.079 0.040
42 0.045 0.062 0.027
43 0.038 0.058 0.018
44 0.027 0.063 -0.009
45 0.031 0.063 -0.001
46 0.024 0.066 -0.018
47 0.033 0.057 0.010
48 0.032 0.057 0.007
49 0.016 0.034 -0.002
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 0.020 0.034 0.005
52 0.034 0.051 0.017
53 0.048 0.063 0.033
54 0.035 0.059 0.011
55 0.029 0.054 0.004
56 0.030 0.058 0.002
57 0.041 0.071 0.010
58 0.045 0.081 0.008
59 0.052 0.088 0.016
60 0.053 0.097 0.009
61 0.053 0.100 0.007
62 0.065 0.102 0.027
63 0.074 0.103 0.045
64 0.077 0.113 0.041
65 0.080 0.116 0.045
66 0.090 0.120 0.060
67 0.097 0.132 0.063
68 0.100 0.143 0.057
69 0.111 0.146 0.077
70 0.114 0.153 0.075
71 0.123 0.164 0.083
72 0.119 0.166 0.072
73 0.122 0.167 0.077
74 0.140 0.187 0.093
75 0.140 0.177 0.103
76 0.144 0.184 0.104
77 0.149 0.192 0.107
78 0.146 0.188 0.103
79 0.154 0.195 0.113
80 0.157 0.203 0.111
81 0.161 0.209 0.113
82 0.156 0.208 0.105
83 0.160 0.206 0.115
84 0.162 0.215 0.110
85 0.153 0.210 0.095
86 0.152 0.222 0.083
87 0.153 0.214 0.091
88 0.148 0.215 0.081
89 0.134 0.199 0.069
90 0.132 0.196 0.068
91 0.123 0.181 0.064
92 0.110 0.170 0.050
93 0.081 0.164 -0.003
94 0.069 0.155 -0.018
95 0.068 0.155 -0.019

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 1 of Table 2. Panels B and D correspond with column 2 of Table 2.

Return to Figure 3

Figure 3E: OLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50) or log(min) and its square, 1979-2009 E - Males and females pooled, no state fixed effects

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.601 0.662 0.541
6 0.562 0.625 0.499
7 0.509 0.577 0.440
8 0.482 0.552 0.413
9 0.450 0.515 0.385
10 0.422 0.488 0.357
11 0.394 0.460 0.328
12 0.364 0.431 0.297
13 0.342 0.408 0.275
14 0.314 0.381 0.247
15 0.296 0.361 0.231
16 0.288 0.350 0.225
17 0.271 0.330 0.211
18 0.260 0.316 0.204
19 0.248 0.307 0.189
20 0.238 0.296 0.180
21 0.225 0.283 0.167
22 0.209 0.261 0.157
23 0.193 0.243 0.143
24 0.191 0.241 0.142
25 0.181 0.231 0.132
26 0.171 0.217 0.124
27 0.157 0.200 0.114
28 0.148 0.190 0.106
29 0.134 0.174 0.095
30 0.129 0.165 0.092
31 0.121 0.154 0.088
32 0.117 0.149 0.084
33 0.104 0.136 0.073
34 0.094 0.123 0.065
35 0.088 0.115 0.060
36 0.082 0.109 0.056
37 0.070 0.093 0.046
38 0.064 0.086 0.042
39 0.058 0.079 0.038
40 0.056 0.075 0.037
41 0.052 0.068 0.036
42 0.045 0.061 0.030
43 0.042 0.058 0.025
44 0.036 0.048 0.023
45 0.034 0.043 0.026
46 0.029 0.037 0.021
47 0.021 0.028 0.013
48 0.017 0.024 0.010
49 0.010 0.015 0.004
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 -0.002 0.004 -0.009
52 0.001 0.007 -0.006
53 0.001 0.010 -0.008
54 -0.000 0.011 -0.011
55 -0.002 0.011 -0.015
56 -0.004 0.010 -0.018
57 -0.010 0.004 -0.025
58 -0.006 0.009 -0.021
59 -0.013 0.005 -0.030
60 -0.010 0.010 -0.029
61 -0.013 0.008 -0.034
62 -0.016 0.006 -0.038
63 -0.015 0.009 -0.040
64 -0.014 0.012 -0.040
65 -0.015 0.013 -0.042
66 -0.009 0.021 -0.039
67 -0.002 0.029 -0.033
68 0.000 0.034 -0.033
69 -0.001 0.035 -0.037
70 0.004 0.041 -0.034
71 0.008 0.047 -0.032
72 0.016 0.058 -0.027
73 0.013 0.057 -0.031
74 0.020 0.066 -0.026
75 0.021 0.068 -0.025
76 0.024 0.071 -0.022
77 0.027 0.077 -0.023
78 0.032 0.082 -0.019
79 0.039 0.095 -0.016
80 0.040 0.097 -0.017
81 0.042 0.102 -0.018
82 0.047 0.109 -0.015
83 0.051 0.118 -0.016
84 0.051 0.120 -0.018
85 0.050 0.122 -0.023
86 0.048 0.122 -0.025
87 0.052 0.129 -0.025
88 0.049 0.128 -0.031
89 0.042 0.125 -0.041
90 0.043 0.130 -0.044
91 0.046 0.136 -0.044
92 0.040 0.135 -0.054
93 0.035 0.133 -0.063
94 0.034 0.140 -0.073
95 0.029 0.143 -0.084

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 1 of Table 2. Panels B and D correspond with column 2 of Table 2.

Return to Figure 3

Figure 3F: OLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50) or log(min) and its square, 1979-2009 F - Males and females pooled, state fixed effects and trends

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.363 0.428 0.298
6 0.317 0.387 0.247
7 0.250 0.291 0.209
8 0.245 0.299 0.191
9 0.227 0.282 0.172
10 0.226 0.298 0.154
11 0.177 0.229 0.124
12 0.150 0.194 0.106
13 0.151 0.190 0.112
14 0.108 0.171 0.046
15 0.094 0.157 0.031
16 0.117 0.161 0.073
17 0.115 0.152 0.078
18 0.111 0.151 0.072
19 0.111 0.157 0.065
20 0.102 0.158 0.045
21 0.073 0.116 0.029
22 0.062 0.097 0.028
23 0.049 0.084 0.014
24 0.075 0.109 0.041
25 0.072 0.106 0.037
26 0.064 0.099 0.028
27 0.072 0.104 0.041
28 0.074 0.102 0.045
29 0.059 0.096 0.023
30 0.067 0.093 0.041
31 0.077 0.105 0.048
32 0.071 0.094 0.048
33 0.054 0.078 0.031
34 0.062 0.083 0.040
35 0.045 0.068 0.021
36 0.044 0.070 0.018
37 0.041 0.064 0.018
38 0.039 0.066 0.012
39 0.044 0.073 0.014
40 0.044 0.071 0.017
41 0.049 0.066 0.032
42 0.058 0.074 0.042
43 0.057 0.076 0.038
44 0.057 0.078 0.037
45 0.047 0.064 0.031
46 0.049 0.061 0.036
47 0.049 0.067 0.031
48 0.041 0.054 0.028
49 0.018 0.029 0.006
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 0.009 0.024 -0.006
52 0.037 0.057 0.017
53 0.038 0.058 0.018
54 0.054 0.069 0.039
55 0.051 0.066 0.037
56 0.055 0.071 0.039
57 0.045 0.060 0.030
58 0.061 0.078 0.044
59 0.059 0.078 0.039
60 0.059 0.076 0.043
61 0.056 0.071 0.040
62 0.048 0.065 0.031
63 0.052 0.068 0.037
64 0.038 0.057 0.019
65 0.043 0.069 0.017
66 0.060 0.085 0.035
67 0.068 0.094 0.043
68 0.075 0.097 0.052
69 0.078 0.105 0.051
70 0.090 0.116 0.063
71 0.097 0.121 0.073
72 0.103 0.128 0.077
73 0.098 0.126 0.071
74 0.116 0.142 0.090
75 0.115 0.143 0.087
76 0.126 0.151 0.100
77 0.122 0.150 0.094
78 0.124 0.154 0.095
79 0.139 0.169 0.109
80 0.134 0.161 0.106
81 0.136 0.167 0.105
82 0.156 0.185 0.126
83 0.160 0.192 0.129
84 0.154 0.190 0.118
85 0.154 0.192 0.116
86 0.155 0.192 0.117
87 0.167 0.202 0.132
88 0.148 0.189 0.107
89 0.138 0.184 0.093
90 0.145 0.197 0.094
91 0.158 0.199 0.117
92 0.157 0.203 0.110
93 0.141 0.194 0.087
94 0.124 0.181 0.068
95 0.099 0.166 0.032

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 1 of Table 2. Panels B and D correspond with column 2 of Table 2.

Return to Figure 3

Figure 4A: 2SLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50), 1979-2009 A - Females, levels (state trends)

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.364 0.473 0.255
6 0.349 0.482 0.216
7 0.349 0.479 0.218
8 0.317 0.436 0.198
9 0.289 0.378 0.199
10 0.314 0.409 0.219
11 0.329 0.456 0.203
12 0.305 0.432 0.179
13 0.275 0.375 0.175
14 0.251 0.329 0.174
15 0.207 0.271 0.142
16 0.159 0.220 0.098
17 0.165 0.218 0.112
18 0.135 0.196 0.075
19 0.149 0.222 0.077
20 0.131 0.205 0.057
21 0.117 0.164 0.069
22 0.116 0.165 0.067
23 0.104 0.150 0.058
24 0.102 0.152 0.053
25 0.086 0.142 0.029
26 0.065 0.125 0.005
27 0.054 0.104 0.003
28 0.073 0.131 0.015
29 0.040 0.077 0.002
30 0.052 0.111 -0.007
31 0.033 0.085 -0.019
32 0.042 0.088 -0.005
33 0.045 0.097 -0.008
34 0.055 0.105 0.005
35 0.046 0.107 -0.016
36 0.059 0.106 0.012
37 0.044 0.091 -0.004
38 0.045 0.082 0.007
39 0.025 0.066 -0.015
40 0.022 0.058 -0.015
41 0.006 0.053 -0.040
42 0.010 0.042 -0.022
43 0.004 0.024 -0.015
44 -0.012 0.017 -0.041
45 -0.003 0.022 -0.028
46 0.016 0.036 -0.004
47 0.021 0.043 -0.001
48 0.014 0.035 -0.007
49 0.009 0.026 -0.007
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 -0.001 0.023 -0.026
52 -0.010 0.018 -0.039
53 0.014 0.034 -0.005
54 0.012 0.035 -0.011
55 -0.023 -0.001 -0.045
56 -0.016 0.009 -0.042
57 -0.002 0.042 -0.046
58 -0.017 0.009 -0.042
59 -0.013 0.015 -0.040
60 -0.027 0.007 -0.062
61 -0.035 -0.005 -0.064
62 -0.017 0.015 -0.049
63 -0.017 0.009 -0.043
64 -0.030 0.006 -0.067
65 -0.017 0.013 -0.047
66 -0.027 0.010 -0.063
67 -0.010 0.025 -0.045
68 -0.023 0.014 -0.060
69 -0.017 0.022 -0.055
70 -0.032 0.005 -0.069
71 -0.048 -0.009 -0.088
72 -0.041 0.003 -0.085
73 -0.037 0.007 -0.082
74 -0.047 -0.001 -0.093
75 -0.004 0.045 -0.052
76 -0.028 0.016 -0.073
77 -0.030 0.021 -0.081
78 -0.048 0.001 -0.098
79 -0.051 0.003 -0.104
80 -0.045 0.012 -0.102
81 -0.050 0.005 -0.105
82 -0.035 0.022 -0.092
83 -0.042 0.021 -0.105
84 -0.039 0.024 -0.101
85 -0.021 0.042 -0.084
86 -0.025 0.039 -0.088
87 -0.023 0.040 -0.087
88 -0.009 0.058 -0.076
89 -0.001 0.073 -0.075
90 0.013 0.084 -0.058
91 0.021 0.106 -0.065
92 0.010 0.098 -0.077
93 -0.001 0.066 -0.067
94 0.024 0.098 -0.050
95 0.048 0.120 -0.024

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 3 of Table 2, and Panels B and D correspond with column 4.

Return to Figure 4

Figure 4B: 2SLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50), 1979-2009 B - Females, levels (first differences, state fixed effects)

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.369 0.469 0.269
6 0.327 0.451 0.204
7 0.266 0.422 0.109
8 0.216 0.359 0.073
9 0.137 0.209 0.065
10 0.155 0.235 0.075
11 0.173 0.287 0.059
12 0.195 0.312 0.077
13 0.155 0.260 0.050
14 0.135 0.227 0.043
15 0.088 0.155 0.020
16 0.050 0.125 -0.026
17 0.012 0.095 -0.070
18 -0.017 0.065 -0.098
19 0.038 0.097 -0.021
20 0.048 0.110 -0.013
21 0.093 0.153 0.033
22 0.063 0.127 -0.000
23 0.053 0.133 -0.027
24 0.061 0.141 -0.020
25 0.048 0.120 -0.024
26 0.010 0.080 -0.060
27 0.015 0.093 -0.063
28 0.040 0.109 -0.028
29 0.026 0.106 -0.055
30 0.055 0.120 -0.010
31 0.045 0.122 -0.031
32 0.040 0.102 -0.022
33 0.034 0.087 -0.020
34 0.045 0.092 -0.003
35 0.035 0.084 -0.015
36 0.033 0.075 -0.009
37 0.006 0.049 -0.038
38 0.033 0.085 -0.018
39 0.027 0.079 -0.026
40 0.002 0.048 -0.044
41 -0.016 0.060 -0.092
42 -0.023 0.048 -0.095
43 -0.004 0.048 -0.056
44 -0.009 0.040 -0.058
45 0.011 0.049 -0.028
46 0.008 0.069 -0.053
47 0.002 0.064 -0.059
48 -0.020 0.047 -0.086
49 -0.001 0.026 -0.027
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 0.006 0.049 -0.037
52 0.008 0.054 -0.039
53 0.027 0.065 -0.011
54 0.010 0.075 -0.056
55 -0.032 0.017 -0.081
56 -0.013 0.048 -0.073
57 0.011 0.073 -0.050
58 0.008 0.051 -0.034
59 -0.006 0.065 -0.077
60 -0.022 0.052 -0.096
61 -0.040 0.037 -0.117
62 -0.060 0.045 -0.164
63 -0.047 0.033 -0.127
64 -0.053 0.035 -0.141
65 -0.018 0.031 -0.067
66 -0.013 0.042 -0.069
67 0.008 0.061 -0.045
68 -0.029 0.028 -0.086
69 -0.027 0.040 -0.094
70 -0.042 0.042 -0.127
71 -0.051 0.021 -0.123
72 -0.056 0.016 -0.128
73 -0.048 0.027 -0.123
74 -0.072 0.025 -0.168
75 -0.016 0.055 -0.087
76 -0.020 0.081 -0.121
77 -0.043 0.077 -0.163
78 -0.038 0.045 -0.121
79 -0.020 0.062 -0.102
80 -0.016 0.096 -0.127
81 -0.021 0.064 -0.107
82 -0.034 0.059 -0.128
83 -0.022 0.091 -0.135
84 -0.015 0.093 -0.122
85 0.012 0.097 -0.074
86 0.006 0.107 -0.095
87 -0.019 0.090 -0.128
88 -0.008 0.081 -0.098
89 -0.011 0.069 -0.091
90 0.029 0.100 -0.043
91 0.024 0.090 -0.043
92 0.005 0.083 -0.072
93 0.035 0.125 -0.054
94 0.023 0.127 -0.081
95 0.012 0.113 -0.090

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 3 of Table 2, and Panels B and D correspond with column 4.

Return to Figure 4

Figure 4C: 2SLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50), 1979-2009 C - Males, levels (state trends)

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.225 0.320 0.130
6 0.147 0.203 0.091
7 0.138 0.198 0.077
8 0.116 0.184 0.048
9 0.159 0.281 0.036
10 0.107 0.170 0.044
11 0.046 0.107 -0.014
12 0.041 0.090 -0.007
13 0.010 0.085 -0.065
14 0.040 0.098 -0.017
15 0.032 0.100 -0.035
16 0.048 0.116 -0.020
17 0.061 0.159 -0.036
18 0.038 0.093 -0.017
19 0.018 0.066 -0.029
20 0.020 0.062 -0.023
21 0.049 0.089 0.009
22 0.066 0.125 0.008
23 0.071 0.136 0.005
24 0.055 0.108 0.002
25 0.027 0.078 -0.024
26 0.031 0.093 -0.031
27 0.039 0.085 -0.008
28 0.040 0.091 -0.010
29 0.052 0.103 0.001
30 0.044 0.095 -0.006
31 0.046 0.074 0.018
32 0.023 0.053 -0.007
33 0.015 0.050 -0.019
34 0.025 0.057 -0.006
35 0.006 0.029 -0.016
36 -0.001 0.033 -0.035
37 -0.004 0.036 -0.045
38 0.021 0.046 -0.005
39 0.041 0.090 -0.009
40 0.058 0.133 -0.017
41 0.053 0.096 0.011
42 0.032 0.065 -0.000
43 0.018 0.043 -0.007
44 -0.006 0.029 -0.041
45 0.014 0.042 -0.015
46 -0.010 0.032 -0.052
47 0.007 0.029 -0.016
48 -0.001 0.025 -0.028
49 -0.003 0.014 -0.020
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 -0.006 0.013 -0.026
52 -0.008 0.007 -0.024
53 -0.006 0.008 -0.021
54 -0.034 -0.008 -0.060
55 -0.051 -0.017 -0.084
56 -0.045 -0.008 -0.082
57 -0.036 0.007 -0.080
58 -0.032 0.019 -0.083
59 -0.025 0.022 -0.073
60 -0.036 0.028 -0.100
61 -0.041 0.021 -0.103
62 -0.024 0.023 -0.072
63 -0.005 0.033 -0.043
64 -0.015 0.032 -0.063
65 -0.014 0.032 -0.060
66 -0.004 0.030 -0.039
67 -0.004 0.039 -0.046
68 -0.009 0.039 -0.057
69 0.006 0.047 -0.035
70 -0.004 0.043 -0.051
71 -0.003 0.047 -0.052
72 -0.007 0.051 -0.064
73 -0.026 0.032 -0.084
74 0.002 0.060 -0.056
75 0.004 0.047 -0.040
76 0.007 0.051 -0.037
77 0.006 0.052 -0.040
78 -0.000 0.043 -0.044
79 0.000 0.043 -0.042
80 0.006 0.059 -0.047
81 0.002 0.061 -0.057
82 -0.013 0.051 -0.078
83 -0.005 0.052 -0.062
84 -0.004 0.060 -0.068
85 -0.018 0.045 -0.080
86 -0.026 0.058 -0.109
87 -0.009 0.057 -0.074
88 -0.024 0.050 -0.099
89 -0.030 0.038 -0.097
90 -0.042 0.025 -0.109
91 -0.051 0.009 -0.112
92 -0.056 0.013 -0.125
93 -0.095 0.009 -0.200
94 -0.100 0.004 -0.203
95 -0.128 -0.018 -0.238

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 3 of Table 2, and Panels B and D correspond with column 4.

Return to Figure 4

Figure 4D: 2SLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50), 1979-2009 D - Males, levels (first differences, state fixed effects)

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.190 0.301 0.079
6 0.156 0.254 0.059
7 0.155 0.242 0.068
8 0.083 0.124 0.043
9 0.130 0.210 0.050
10 0.073 0.148 -0.001
11 -0.014 0.062 -0.091
12 -0.003 0.081 -0.086
13 0.006 0.078 -0.066
14 0.045 0.107 -0.016
15 -0.008 0.049 -0.064
16 0.012 0.068 -0.045
17 0.012 0.121 -0.097
18 -0.013 0.053 -0.079
19 0.014 0.071 -0.043
20 0.037 0.103 -0.029
21 0.010 0.060 -0.040
22 0.052 0.124 -0.020
23 0.045 0.130 -0.041
24 0.008 0.067 -0.051
25 -0.018 0.041 -0.076
26 -0.001 0.062 -0.063
27 -0.007 0.047 -0.060
28 -0.038 0.012 -0.089
29 -0.005 0.053 -0.064
30 -0.017 0.029 -0.063
31 0.015 0.056 -0.026
32 -0.030 0.015 -0.074
33 -0.025 0.016 -0.066
34 -0.006 0.037 -0.048
35 -0.002 0.031 -0.034
36 0.006 0.051 -0.039
37 -0.050 0.005 -0.105
38 -0.019 0.023 -0.061
39 -0.026 0.014 -0.067
40 -0.006 0.032 -0.043
41 0.033 0.062 0.005
42 0.019 0.064 -0.025
43 0.006 0.045 -0.032
44 -0.024 0.025 -0.072
45 0.019 0.044 -0.007
46 0.020 0.052 -0.012
47 -0.000 0.045 -0.046
48 -0.034 0.019 -0.086
49 -0.020 0.012 -0.053
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 0.009 0.044 -0.027
52 0.018 0.049 -0.013
53 0.009 0.041 -0.023
54 -0.032 0.010 -0.074
55 -0.035 0.017 -0.088
56 -0.003 0.046 -0.053
57 -0.021 0.026 -0.067
58 0.002 0.059 -0.055
59 0.005 0.051 -0.041
60 -0.023 0.035 -0.082
61 -0.022 0.048 -0.093
62 -0.012 0.053 -0.077
63 0.016 0.067 -0.034
64 0.015 0.064 -0.034
65 0.011 0.057 -0.035
66 0.015 0.062 -0.032
67 0.016 0.063 -0.032
68 0.015 0.059 -0.029
69 0.008 0.051 -0.035
70 0.014 0.062 -0.035
71 0.024 0.076 -0.029
72 0.036 0.083 -0.011
73 0.017 0.065 -0.032
74 0.036 0.077 -0.006
75 0.027 0.066 -0.012
76 0.046 0.081 0.010
77 0.043 0.081 0.006
78 0.010 0.056 -0.035
79 0.010 0.050 -0.029
80 0.012 0.059 -0.034
81 0.036 0.082 -0.010
82 0.027 0.077 -0.022
83 0.038 0.085 -0.009
84 0.020 0.066 -0.025
85 0.003 0.060 -0.054
86 -0.025 0.048 -0.099
87 0.029 0.102 -0.044
88 0.017 0.091 -0.057
89 0.023 0.093 -0.047
90 0.001 0.076 -0.074
91 -0.028 0.049 -0.105
92 -0.011 0.066 -0.087
93 -0.025 0.081 -0.131
94 0.026 0.128 -0.077
95 -0.021 0.085 -0.126

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 3 of Table 2, and Panels B and D correspond with column 4.

Return to Figure 4

Figure 4E: 2SLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50), 1979-2009 E - Males and females, levels (state trends)

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.322 0.435 0.208
6 0.306 0.427 0.185
7 0.242 0.306 0.178
8 0.237 0.327 0.147
9 0.229 0.322 0.137
10 0.254 0.381 0.127
11 0.204 0.308 0.099
12 0.142 0.218 0.066
13 0.136 0.186 0.086
14 0.073 0.135 0.012
15 0.049 0.107 -0.008
16 0.094 0.151 0.037
17 0.095 0.150 0.040
18 0.079 0.124 0.034
19 0.081 0.138 0.025
20 0.059 0.123 -0.005
21 0.038 0.087 -0.010
22 0.029 0.073 -0.015
23 0.015 0.069 -0.038
24 0.059 0.116 0.002
25 0.055 0.114 -0.005
26 0.015 0.054 -0.025
27 0.038 0.091 -0.014
28 0.037 0.084 -0.011
29 0.020 0.059 -0.019
30 0.037 0.076 -0.003
31 0.049 0.103 -0.006
32 0.059 0.104 0.013
33 0.029 0.060 -0.002
34 0.031 0.065 -0.003
35 0.028 0.054 0.002
36 0.016 0.047 -0.014
37 0.000 0.025 -0.024
38 -0.006 0.023 -0.036
39 0.000 0.031 -0.030
40 0.003 0.024 -0.019
41 0.013 0.032 -0.005
42 0.026 0.053 -0.001
43 0.034 0.062 0.006
44 0.036 0.067 0.005
45 0.012 0.039 -0.015
46 0.007 0.026 -0.012
47 0.022 0.053 -0.008
48 0.013 0.029 -0.004
49 -0.002 0.014 -0.018
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 -0.019 0.009 -0.048
52 0.001 0.027 -0.026
53 -0.017 0.020 -0.054
54 0.004 0.023 -0.015
55 -0.006 0.014 -0.026
56 -0.008 0.014 -0.030
57 -0.012 0.006 -0.031
58 0.000 0.026 -0.025
59 -0.011 0.010 -0.033
60 -0.012 0.007 -0.031
61 -0.021 -0.000 -0.041
62 -0.021 0.001 -0.043
63 -0.025 -0.003 -0.047
64 -0.034 -0.013 -0.054
65 -0.030 0.002 -0.062
66 -0.029 0.005 -0.063
67 -0.019 0.018 -0.055
68 -0.013 0.014 -0.040
69 -0.013 0.022 -0.047
70 -0.007 0.026 -0.041
71 -0.001 0.027 -0.028
72 0.009 0.040 -0.022
73 0.006 0.040 -0.027
74 0.009 0.041 -0.022
75 -0.002 0.035 -0.039
76 0.016 0.052 -0.020
77 0.007 0.040 -0.025
78 0.004 0.036 -0.028
79 0.023 0.058 -0.013
80 0.008 0.039 -0.023
81 0.008 0.040 -0.024
82 0.020 0.051 -0.010
83 0.029 0.063 -0.004
84 0.024 0.063 -0.014
85 0.022 0.061 -0.016
86 0.016 0.049 -0.018
87 0.032 0.064 -0.001
88 0.005 0.042 -0.032
89 -0.006 0.039 -0.050
90 0.000 0.053 -0.052
91 0.019 0.066 -0.028
92 0.012 0.063 -0.039
93 -0.012 0.045 -0.069
94 -0.016 0.042 -0.075
95 -0.044 0.035 -0.123

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 3 of Table 2, and Panels B and D correspond with column 4.

Return to Figure 4

Figure 4F: 2SLS estimates of the relationship between log(p)-log(p50) and log(min)-log(p50), 1979-2009 F - Males and females, levels (first differences, state fixed effects)

percentile marginal effect upper bound of confidence interval lower bound of confidence interval
5 0.268 0.409 0.128
6 0.226 0.366 0.087
7 0.174 0.298 0.051
8 0.209 0.356 0.061
9 0.152 0.261 0.044
10 0.173 0.290 0.055
11 0.168 0.282 0.054
12 0.088 0.174 0.003
13 0.035 0.103 -0.033
14 -0.002 0.047 -0.052
15 0.014 0.078 -0.051
16 0.048 0.129 -0.032
17 0.086 0.182 -0.010
18 0.063 0.135 -0.009
19 0.059 0.136 -0.019
20 0.057 0.135 -0.022
21 0.034 0.090 -0.022
22 -0.003 0.052 -0.058
23 -0.003 0.045 -0.051
24 0.092 0.155 0.029
25 0.086 0.156 0.017
26 0.025 0.074 -0.025
27 0.040 0.103 -0.022
28 0.049 0.142 -0.045
29 0.006 0.060 -0.047
30 -0.006 0.039 -0.051
31 0.018 0.098 -0.062
32 0.040 0.118 -0.037
33 0.031 0.087 -0.025
34 0.016 0.066 -0.035
35 0.020 0.077 -0.038
36 0.019 0.091 -0.053
37 -0.003 0.029 -0.035
38 -0.016 0.016 -0.048
39 -0.005 0.032 -0.042
40 0.016 0.064 -0.032
41 0.027 0.069 -0.015
42 -0.012 0.024 -0.047
43 -0.007 0.022 -0.036
44 0.014 0.060 -0.033
45 -0.006 0.027 -0.039
46 0.009 0.065 -0.046
47 0.019 0.078 -0.040
48 0.011 0.045 -0.022
49 -0.002 0.024 -0.028
50 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 -0.016 0.007 -0.039
52 -0.015 0.029 -0.059
53 -0.024 0.013 -0.060
54 0.028 0.072 -0.017
55 0.010 0.044 -0.024
56 0.013 0.048 -0.023
57 -0.028 0.009 -0.064
58 0.012 0.047 -0.023
59 -0.011 0.028 -0.050
60 -0.001 0.038 -0.041
61 0.007 0.060 -0.045
62 -0.006 0.042 -0.054
63 -0.019 0.017 -0.055
64 -0.002 0.042 -0.046
65 -0.026 0.018 -0.070
66 -0.028 0.021 -0.077
67 -0.023 0.034 -0.080
68 0.003 0.046 -0.040
69 0.000 0.045 -0.044
70 0.025 0.070 -0.020
71 0.029 0.068 -0.011
72 0.032 0.080 -0.016
73 0.022 0.062 -0.018
74 0.024 0.064 -0.017
75 0.009 0.056 -0.038
76 0.040 0.085 -0.005
77 0.010 0.059 -0.040
78 0.028 0.071 -0.015
79 0.055 0.117 -0.007
80 0.040 0.088 -0.008
81 0.024 0.064 -0.016
82 0.044 0.086 0.003
83 0.034 0.076 -0.008
84 0.035 0.086 -0.016
85 0.048 0.112 -0.017
86 0.032 0.087 -0.024
87 0.054 0.108 -0.001
88 0.011 0.063 -0.042
89 -0.006 0.058 -0.070
90 0.010 0.088 -0.068
91 0.044 0.111 -0.023
92 0.043 0.110 -0.025
93 -0.011 0.058 -0.079
94 0.005 0.066 -0.057
95 0.019 0.088 -0.049

Note: Estimates are the marginal effects of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50), evaluated at the hours-weighted average of log(min. wage)-pred. log(p50) across states and years. Observations are state-year observations. 95% confidence interval is represented by the dashed lines. Panels A and C correspond with column 3 of Table 2, and Panels B and D correspond with column 4.

Return to Figure 4

Figure 5A: Marginal effects of change in log(min)-log(p50) on all percentiles, 1979 to 2009--FEMALES

percentile quantile regression, no state effects Two stage least squares ordinary least squares, reduced form quantile regression reduced form
5 0.553 0.341 0.337 0.249
6 0.525 0.319 0.311 0.228
7 0.492 0.325 0.311 0.218
8 0.463 0.297 0.282 0.193
9 0.428 0.254 0.239 0.216
10 0.404 0.270 0.256 0.203
11 0.377 0.289 0.273 0.172
12 0.361 0.256 0.243 0.141
13 0.337 0.228 0.217 0.111
14 0.313 0.211 0.198 0.107
15 0.294 0.178 0.167 0.103
16 0.277 0.134 0.125 0.108
17 0.257 0.140 0.132 0.115
18 0.243 0.110 0.103 0.082
19 0.226 0.122 0.114 0.096
20 0.215 0.111 0.103 0.041
21 0.198 0.100 0.093 0.048
22 0.189 0.108 0.102 0.038
23 0.174 0.105 0.099 0.025
24 0.168 0.087 0.081 0.045
25 0.156 0.068 0.062 0.019
26 0.144 0.038 0.035 0.031
27 0.134 0.035 0.032 0.025
28 0.118 0.054 0.049 0.015
29 0.113 0.026 0.022 0.033
30 0.107 0.040 0.037 0.023
31 0.096 0.030 0.028 0.018
32 0.089 0.033 0.030 0.017
33 0.079 0.039 0.036 0.035
34 0.073 0.050 0.047 0.010
35 0.062 0.044 0.041 0.007
36 0.056 0.045 0.042 0.006
37 0.052 0.037 0.033 0.011
38 0.041 0.035 0.030 0.012
39 0.038 0.017 0.014 0.001
40 0.029 0.015 0.013 0.014
41 0.026 0.003 0.000 0.009
42 0.022 0.016 0.013 -0.006
43 0.014 0.009 0.007 0.010
44 0.012 -0.009 -0.010 0.001
45 0.006 0.003 0.002 -0.001
46 0.000 0.019 0.017 0.000
47 -0.003 0.017 0.016 -0.020
48 -0.009 0.014 0.014 -0.010
49 -0.012 0.010 0.009 -0.002
50 -0.019 0.000 0.000 -0.013
51 -0.020 -0.007 -0.007 -0.020
52 -0.025 -0.012 -0.012 -0.016
53 -0.029 0.010 0.009 0.004
54 -0.034 0.005 0.004 -0.010
55 -0.040 -0.024 -0.024 -0.019
56 -0.043 -0.021 -0.021 -0.011
57 -0.041 -0.000 -0.001 -0.022
58 -0.043 -0.012 -0.012 -0.027
59 -0.046 -0.008 -0.008 -0.032
60 -0.053 -0.020 -0.020 -0.014
61 -0.056 -0.029 -0.029 -0.019
62 -0.055 -0.012 -0.013 -0.018
63 -0.056 -0.012 -0.012 -0.016
64 -0.062 -0.029 -0.030 -0.014
65 -0.058 -0.014 -0.015 -0.017
66 -0.057 -0.026 -0.026 -0.022
67 -0.062 -0.011 -0.012 -0.035
68 -0.059 -0.022 -0.022 -0.018
69 -0.062 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012
70 -0.061 -0.022 -0.022 -0.029
71 -0.062 -0.037 -0.036 -0.026
72 -0.061 -0.029 -0.028 -0.016
73 -0.066 -0.030 -0.028 -0.029
74 -0.059 -0.037 -0.034 -0.011
75 -0.066 -0.001 0.000 -0.024
76 -0.062 -0.019 -0.016 -0.027
77 -0.055 -0.016 -0.014 -0.018
78 -0.059 -0.027 -0.024 -0.012
79 -0.059 -0.034 -0.030 -0.017
80 -0.059 -0.026 -0.022 -0.025
81 -0.057 -0.030 -0.026 -0.005
82 -0.050 -0.016 -0.013 -0.006
83 -0.053 -0.029 -0.026 0.008
84 -0.056 -0.024 -0.020 0.019
85 -0.057 -0.008 -0.006 0.020
86 -0.056 -0.010 -0.007 0.022
87 -0.058 -0.017 -0.014 0.022
88 -0.058 0.004 0.006 -0.004
89 -0.058 0.012 0.013 0.001
90 -0.063 0.011 0.011 0.006
91 -0.064 0.021 0.021 0.028
92 -0.064 0.003 0.004 0.028
93 -0.064 -0.014 -0.012 0.028
94 -0.064 0.022 0.022 0.028
95 -0.064 0.041 0.041 0.028
Return to Figure 5

Figure 5B: Marginal effects of change in log(min)-log(p50) on all percentiles, 1979 to 2009--MALES

percentile quantile regression, no state effects Two stage least squares ordinary least squares, reduced form quantile regression reduced form
5 0.413 0.205 0.209 0.133
6 0.380 0.138 0.141 0.109
7 0.363 0.119 0.122 0.075
8 0.332 0.095 0.097 0.039
9 0.322 0.134 0.136 0.061
10 0.304 0.089 0.090 0.037
11 0.283 0.041 0.042 0.033
12 0.272 0.035 0.035 0.053
13 0.258 0.002 0.002 0.066
14 0.245 0.031 0.031 0.036
15 0.220 0.013 0.013 0.035
16 0.211 0.034 0.034 0.040
17 0.180 0.049 0.049 0.044
18 0.172 0.031 0.031 0.057
19 0.151 0.010 0.010 0.048
20 0.148 0.008 0.008 0.054
21 0.133 0.031 0.031 0.004
22 0.123 0.044 0.044 0.019
23 0.107 0.046 0.046 0.043
24 0.095 0.041 0.042 0.048
25 0.080 0.015 0.016 0.049
26 0.069 0.017 0.018 0.050
27 0.058 0.023 0.024 0.020
28 0.057 0.033 0.033 0.030
29 0.046 0.039 0.040 -0.005
30 0.045 0.032 0.033 0.021
31 0.036 0.034 0.035 0.017
32 0.036 0.012 0.012 -0.005
33 0.028 0.004 0.005 -0.005
34 0.032 0.014 0.014 0.017
35 0.020 -0.003 -0.002 0.030
36 0.020 -0.005 -0.005 0.022
37 0.015 -0.011 -0.011 0.017
38 0.008 0.016 0.016 0.022
39 0.006 0.031 0.032 0.005
40 0.003 0.048 0.048 0.011
41 0.001 0.039 0.040 -0.017
42 0.003 0.019 0.020 -0.010
43 -0.002 0.008 0.008 0.008
44 0.001 -0.016 -0.017 -0.005
45 -0.003 0.001 0.002 -0.008
46 0.000 -0.016 -0.016 0.000
47 -0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.020
48 -0.005 -0.007 -0.007 0.001
49 0.004 -0.005 -0.005 -0.003
50 -0.003 0.000 0.000 -0.026
51 0.001 -0.006 -0.006 -0.003
52 0.000 -0.010 -0.010 -0.015
53 0.008 -0.002 -0.002 -0.018
54 0.007 -0.032 -0.033 -0.019
55 0.012 -0.045 -0.046 -0.031
56 0.015 -0.039 -0.039 -0.025
57 0.018 -0.031 -0.031 -0.014
58 0.028 -0.029 -0.029 -0.023
59 0.034 -0.020 -0.020 -0.001
60 0.040 -0.028 -0.028 -0.006
61 0.046 -0.035 -0.036 0.006
62 0.051 -0.015 -0.015 0.012
63 0.057 -0.002 -0.002 0.011
64 0.059 -0.010 -0.010 0.021
65 0.066 -0.007 -0.007 0.014
66 0.070 -0.002 -0.002 0.027
67 0.073 0.001 0.001 0.000
68 0.075 0.002 0.002 0.023
69 0.086 0.014 0.014 0.009
70 0.090 0.005 0.005 0.023
71 0.097 0.010 0.011 0.016
72 0.100 0.007 0.007 0.011
73 0.104 -0.008 -0.009 0.008
74 0.111 0.016 0.016 0.008
75 0.111 0.016 0.017 0.029
76 0.117 0.019 0.020 0.015
77 0.116 0.016 0.016 0.019
78 0.119 0.012 0.013 0.022
79 0.119 0.015 0.015 0.023
80 0.121 0.021 0.022 0.048
81 0.119 0.015 0.015 0.007
82 0.116 0.003 0.003 0.004
83 0.120 0.010 0.010 0.020
84 0.118 0.014 0.014 -0.004
85 0.124 0.001 0.001 0.013
86 0.131 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005
87 0.139 0.010 0.010 -0.020
88 0.148 -0.005 -0.005 -0.034
89 0.150 -0.012 -0.012 -0.061
90 0.164 -0.020 -0.020 -0.070
91 0.172 -0.036 -0.036 -0.077
92 0.172 -0.040 -0.041 -0.077
93 0.172 -0.077 -0.078 -0.077
94 0.172 -0.088 -0.089 -0.077
95 0.172 -0.103 -0.105 -0.077
Return to Figure 5

Figure 6A: Actual and counterfactual change in log(p)-log(p50), 1979 to 1988--FEMALES

percentile actual change counterfactual change, no state fixed effects counterfactual change, state time trends counterfactual change, first difference
5 -0.281 -0.046 -0.164 -0.145
6 -0.293 -0.046 -0.153 -0.167
7 -0.337 -0.077 -0.174 -0.201
8 -0.304 -0.059 -0.148 -0.186
9 -0.277 -0.060 -0.134 -0.177
10 -0.234 -0.033 -0.105 -0.149
11 -0.212 -0.029 -0.099 -0.141
12 -0.212 -0.048 -0.114 -0.152
13 -0.227 -0.068 -0.128 -0.163
14 -0.198 -0.040 -0.097 -0.125
15 -0.186 -0.044 -0.097 -0.121
16 -0.151 -0.024 -0.072 -0.095
17 -0.129 -0.015 -0.060 -0.085
18 -0.129 -0.030 -0.073 -0.096
19 -0.116 -0.011 -0.057 -0.075
20 -0.107 -0.010 -0.049 -0.064
21 -0.064 0.025 -0.018 -0.025
22 -0.072 0.009 -0.032 -0.037
23 -0.088 -0.008 -0.044 -0.051
24 -0.103 -0.025 -0.058 -0.061
25 -0.103 -0.040 -0.068 -0.071
26 -0.105 -0.042 -0.068 -0.073
27 -0.080 -0.019 -0.045 -0.046
28 -0.087 -0.027 -0.053 -0.051
29 -0.075 -0.011 -0.044 -0.039
30 -0.082 -0.020 -0.048 -0.045
31 -0.073 -0.026 -0.048 -0.042
32 -0.052 -0.015 -0.032 -0.032
33 -0.041 -0.013 -0.028 -0.025
34 -0.035 0.004 -0.014 -0.009
35 -0.037 -0.001 -0.018 -0.014
36 -0.051 -0.014 -0.037 -0.031
37 -0.064 -0.030 -0.045 -0.042
38 -0.041 -0.017 -0.030 -0.028
39 -0.023 -0.012 -0.020 -0.017
40 -0.044 -0.027 -0.034 -0.029
41 -0.039 -0.018 -0.029 -0.025
42 -0.036 -0.017 -0.030 -0.027
43 -0.045 -0.024 -0.034 -0.032
44 -0.021 -0.005 -0.014 -0.012
45 -0.003 -0.002 -0.003 -0.000
46 0.018 0.012 0.012 0.011
47 0.001 0.010 0.006 0.006
48 -0.011 -0.007 -0.009 -0.010
49 -0.009 -0.005 -0.010 -0.006
50 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 0.007 0.005 0.006 0.007
52 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.009
53 -0.001 -0.007 -0.007 -0.005
54 -0.023 -0.018 -0.020 -0.019
55 0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001
56 0.012 0.004 0.006 0.008
57 0.015 0.007 0.011 0.013
58 0.000 -0.009 -0.007 -0.006
59 -0.010 -0.020 -0.018 -0.018
60 -0.005 -0.017 -0.016 -0.013
61 -0.005 -0.018 -0.018 -0.012
62 -0.003 -0.008 -0.006 0.001
63 0.014 0.001 0.008 0.012
64 0.026 0.010 0.015 0.015
65 0.041 0.024 0.027 0.025
66 0.054 0.032 0.026 0.031
67 0.041 0.026 0.025 0.030
68 0.046 0.032 0.033 0.038
69 0.052 0.037 0.036 0.038
70 0.054 0.039 0.037 0.041
71 0.064 0.054 0.054 0.056
72 0.055 0.040 0.038 0.041
73 0.041 0.026 0.021 0.027
74 0.026 0.010 0.006 0.013
75 0.035 0.022 0.011 0.021
76 0.039 0.026 0.020 0.026
77 0.046 0.032 0.027 0.033
78 0.064 0.048 0.036 0.046
79 0.041 0.040 0.032 0.036
80 0.054 0.042 0.033 0.041
81 0.075 0.057 0.044 0.054
82 0.080 0.075 0.063 0.072
83 0.068 0.060 0.047 0.060
84 0.086 0.078 0.067 0.077
85 0.064 0.056 0.046 0.056
86 0.066 0.058 0.049 0.056
87 0.063 0.056 0.049 0.061
88 0.067 0.064 0.056 0.068
89 0.085 0.077 0.074 0.079
90 0.085 0.080 0.078 0.084
91 0.097 0.092 0.093 0.102
92 0.079 0.074 0.075 0.079
93 0.088 0.085 0.096 0.092
94 0.103 0.099 0.103 0.110
95 0.120 0.123 0.135 0.130

Note: Plots represent the actual and counterfactual changes in the 5th through 95th percentiles of the male wage distribution. Counterfactual changes are calculated by adjusting the 1979 wage distributions by the value of states' effective minima in 1988 using coefficients from OLS regressions without state fixed effects for which the minimum wage regressor is log(min)-log(p50) (column 1 of table 2) and 2SLS regressions with state fixed effects and time trends or first-differenced 2SLS regressions with state fixed effects (columns 3 and 4 of table 2).

Return to Figure 6

Figure 6B: Actual and counterfactual change in log(p)-log(p50), 1979 to 1988--MALES

percentile actual change counterfactual change, no state fixed effects counterfactual change, state time trends counterfactual change, first difference
5 -0.143 0.007 -0.090 -0.086
6 -0.143 -0.025 -0.111 -0.106
7 -0.082 -0.003 -0.079 -0.078
8 -0.097 -0.006 -0.085 -0.082
9 -0.105 -0.019 -0.093 -0.092
10 -0.077 0.002 -0.067 -0.065
11 -0.074 0.021 -0.052 -0.052
12 -0.074 -0.005 -0.072 -0.071
13 -0.102 -0.039 -0.094 -0.098
14 -0.143 -0.072 -0.130 -0.130
15 -0.094 -0.043 -0.094 -0.095
16 -0.084 -0.030 -0.078 -0.081
17 -0.112 -0.050 -0.097 -0.103
18 -0.068 -0.020 -0.061 -0.065
19 -0.025 0.005 -0.025 -0.027
20 -0.062 -0.026 -0.054 -0.058
21 -0.086 -0.043 -0.074 -0.081
22 -0.075 -0.044 -0.069 -0.074
23 -0.090 -0.054 -0.077 -0.088
24 -0.063 -0.035 -0.053 -0.060
25 -0.072 -0.052 -0.063 -0.072
26 -0.068 -0.048 -0.061 -0.068
27 -0.061 -0.045 -0.057 -0.063
28 -0.076 -0.057 -0.071 -0.077
29 -0.094 -0.071 -0.083 -0.090
30 -0.074 -0.058 -0.067 -0.072
31 -0.046 -0.036 -0.041 -0.045
32 -0.025 -0.021 -0.024 -0.031
33 -0.025 -0.029 -0.026 -0.041
34 -0.036 -0.026 -0.030 -0.038
35 -0.022 -0.018 -0.021 -0.027
36 -0.034 -0.027 -0.029 -0.037
37 -0.056 -0.047 -0.049 -0.053
38 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 -0.058
39 -0.048 -0.042 -0.042 -0.048
40 -0.043 -0.038 -0.038 -0.044
41 -0.050 -0.046 -0.048 -0.053
42 -0.046 -0.036 -0.041 -0.047
43 -0.036 -0.035 -0.033 -0.035
44 -0.025 -0.027 -0.025 -0.029
45 -0.029 -0.031 -0.031 -0.039
46 -0.031 -0.022 -0.025 -0.028
47 -0.012 -0.013 -0.011 -0.011
48 0.001 -0.003 -0.003 -0.009
49 0.016 0.021 0.016 0.013
50 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 -0.015 -0.006 -0.014 -0.016
52 -0.030 -0.025 -0.030 -0.030
53 -0.047 -0.039 -0.046 -0.048
54 -0.041 -0.031 -0.040 -0.040
55 -0.025 -0.017 -0.025 -0.023
56 -0.006 -0.009 -0.009 -0.010
57 0.009 0.014 0.007 0.009
58 -0.007 0.004 -0.008 -0.006
59 -0.011 -0.003 -0.014 -0.010
60 -0.025 -0.002 -0.016 -0.017
61 -0.001 0.008 -0.001 0.001
62 0.026 0.028 0.022 0.026
63 0.029 0.034 0.027 0.033
64 0.006 0.027 0.010 0.013
65 0.008 0.025 0.010 0.014
66 0.016 0.038 0.020 0.024
67 0.016 0.028 0.015 0.020
68 0.022 0.025 0.015 0.023
69 0.036 0.050 0.038 0.042
70 0.016 0.037 0.020 0.024
71 0.025 0.048 0.030 0.034
72 0.028 0.047 0.029 0.035
73 0.029 0.055 0.036 0.040
74 0.039 0.060 0.039 0.045
75 0.034 0.058 0.038 0.042
76 0.046 0.070 0.051 0.055
77 0.079 0.090 0.078 0.082
78 0.055 0.077 0.059 0.063
79 0.039 0.063 0.040 0.044
80 0.047 0.072 0.049 0.054
81 0.045 0.077 0.049 0.052
82 0.039 0.076 0.044 0.050
83 0.062 0.089 0.064 0.068
84 0.089 0.101 0.089 0.092
85 0.096 0.109 0.093 0.096
86 0.081 0.109 0.081 0.088
87 0.087 0.110 0.082 0.089
88 0.103 0.126 0.098 0.105
89 0.105 0.126 0.096 0.108
90 0.108 0.132 0.098 0.113
91 0.080 0.099 0.067 0.083
92 0.099 0.136 0.092 0.106
93 0.139 0.150 0.107 0.136
94 0.130 0.168 0.112 0.147
95 0.135 0.188 0.138 0.168

Note: Plots represent the actual and counterfactual changes in the 5th through 95th percentiles of the male wage distribution. Counterfactual changes are calculated by adjusting the 1979 wage distributions by the value of states' effective minima in 1988 using coefficients from OLS regressions without state fixed effects for which the minimum wage regressor is log(min)-log(p50) (column 1 of table 2) and 2SLS regressions with state fixed effects and time trends or first-differenced 2SLS regressions with state fixed effects (columns 3 and 4 of table 2).

Return to Figure 6

Figure 7A: Actual and counterfactual change in log(p)-log(p50), 1979 to 1988--MALES AND FEMALES

percentile actual change counterfactual change, no state fixed effects counterfactual change, state time trends counterfactual change, first difference
5 -0.242 -0.021 -0.121 -0.128
6 -0.187 -0.007 -0.093 -0.106
7 -0.135 0.015 -0.066 -0.079
8 -0.140 0.006 -0.074 -0.085
9 -0.157 -0.014 -0.096 -0.102
10 -0.108 0.011 -0.058 -0.070
11 -0.088 0.012 -0.058 -0.062
12 -0.066 0.038 -0.026 -0.025
13 -0.080 0.017 -0.051 -0.052
14 -0.049 0.048 -0.021 -0.018
15 -0.024 0.068 -0.001 0.002
16 -0.020 0.057 -0.009 -0.005
17 -0.044 0.030 -0.031 -0.029
18 -0.073 0.007 -0.056 -0.049
19 -0.088 -0.014 -0.071 -0.065
20 -0.039 0.021 -0.033 -0.027
21 -0.040 0.017 -0.025 -0.021
22 -0.034 0.024 -0.022 -0.017
23 -0.060 0.003 -0.046 -0.036
24 -0.023 0.024 -0.018 -0.013
25 -0.016 0.024 -0.010 -0.007
26 -0.014 0.032 -0.007 -0.001
27 -0.039 0.016 -0.026 -0.019
28 -0.039 0.003 -0.032 -0.027
29 -0.009 0.018 -0.008 -0.006
30 -0.011 0.019 -0.003 -0.003
31 -0.013 0.017 -0.008 -0.005
32 -0.013 0.017 -0.006 -0.006
33 -0.009 0.008 -0.010 -0.010
34 -0.007 0.016 -0.004 -0.003
35 -0.005 0.017 0.000 0.001
36 -0.003 0.018 0.003 0.003
37 -0.003 0.004 -0.005 -0.008
38 -0.013 -0.000 -0.010 -0.011
39 -0.014 -0.002 -0.012 -0.013
40 0.002 0.011 0.005 0.005
41 -0.019 -0.015 -0.021 -0.020
42 -0.039 -0.024 -0.034 -0.034
43 -0.014 -0.004 -0.013 -0.012
44 0.009 0.013 0.008 0.006
45 0.026 0.022 0.022 0.021
46 0.026 0.010 0.015 0.014
47 0.002 0.002 -0.001 -0.002
48 0.008 0.010 0.007 0.007
49 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.006
50 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.011
52 0.007 0.003 0.004 0.007
53 0.019 0.013 0.013 0.016
54 0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001
55 0.004 0.001 0.002 0.003
56 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.007
57 0.023 0.018 0.020 0.020
58 0.048 0.038 0.040 0.042
59 0.034 0.035 0.029 0.035
60 0.026 0.021 0.022 0.023
61 0.026 0.015 0.015 0.017
62 -0.001 -0.002 -0.006 -0.003
63 0.011 0.004 0.005 0.007
64 0.012 0.014 0.011 0.015
65 0.018 0.018 0.014 0.017
66 0.026 0.025 0.021 0.025
67 0.008 0.010 0.008 0.012
68 0.030 0.024 0.023 0.025
69 0.027 0.033 0.027 0.031
70 0.031 0.033 0.027 0.031
71 0.032 0.044 0.036 0.041
72 0.026 0.029 0.027 0.031
73 0.044 0.040 0.039 0.039
74 0.043 0.054 0.046 0.049
75 0.023 0.033 0.025 0.028
76 0.022 0.036 0.029 0.033
77 0.041 0.044 0.041 0.042
78 0.046 0.056 0.049 0.052
79 0.040 0.055 0.047 0.051
80 0.050 0.066 0.056 0.060
81 0.037 0.053 0.042 0.046
82 0.055 0.066 0.060 0.061
83 0.065 0.089 0.076 0.079
84 0.066 0.071 0.067 0.068
85 0.045 0.062 0.052 0.054
86 0.053 0.068 0.059 0.062
87 0.046 0.062 0.051 0.054
88 0.066 0.084 0.072 0.075
89 0.086 0.091 0.088 0.089
90 0.089 0.101 0.089 0.098
91 0.090 0.100 0.092 0.098
92 0.098 0.105 0.095 0.102
93 0.109 0.115 0.106 0.119
94 0.087 0.090 0.076 0.096
95 0.121 0.124 0.112 0.130

Note: Plots represent the actual and counterfactual changes in the 5th through 95th percentiles of the male and female pooled wage distribution. Counterfactual changes in Panel A are calculated by adjusting the 1979 wage distributions by the value of states' effective minima in 1988 using coefficients from OLS regressions (column 1 of table 2) and 2SLS regressions (columns 5 and 6 of table 2). Counterfactual changes in Panel B are calculated by adjusting both the 1979 and 2009 wage distributions by the value of states' effective minima in 1988 using coefficients from OLS regressions (column 1 of table 2) and 2SLS regressions (columns 5 and 6 of table 2).

Return to Figure 7

Figure 7B: Actual and counterfactual change in log(p)-log(p50), 1979 to 2009--MALES AND FEMALES

percentile actual change counterfactual change, no state fixed effects counterfactual change, state time trends counterfactual change, first difference
5 -0.199 0.005 -0.086 -0.092
6 -0.187 -0.008 -0.080 -0.094
7 -0.123 -0.001 -0.076 -0.085
8 -0.140 -0.005 -0.074 -0.083
9 -0.157 0.001 -0.086 -0.090
10 -0.114 -0.002 -0.070 -0.082
11 -0.096 0.002 -0.062 -0.065
12 -0.095 0.004 -0.053 -0.048
13 -0.080 0.008 -0.053 -0.052
14 -0.104 0.004 -0.070 -0.066
15 -0.086 0.003 -0.064 -0.059
16 -0.071 0.007 -0.057 -0.051
17 -0.055 -0.001 -0.049 -0.044
18 -0.073 -0.004 -0.058 -0.050
19 -0.088 -0.015 -0.070 -0.063
20 -0.088 -0.018 -0.078 -0.072
21 -0.083 -0.028 -0.072 -0.068
22 -0.081 -0.025 -0.068 -0.062
23 -0.080 -0.026 -0.067 -0.056
24 -0.061 -0.017 -0.056 -0.050
25 -0.065 -0.021 -0.059 -0.057
26 -0.056 -0.018 -0.052 -0.045
27 -0.062 -0.011 -0.051 -0.042
28 -0.039 -0.005 -0.034 -0.028
29 -0.039 -0.009 -0.036 -0.034
30 -0.050 -0.010 -0.038 -0.038
31 -0.033 -0.011 -0.033 -0.029
32 -0.052 -0.015 -0.042 -0.042
33 -0.027 -0.015 -0.031 -0.031
34 -0.045 -0.020 -0.040 -0.038
35 -0.045 -0.026 -0.041 -0.039
36 -0.039 -0.016 -0.033 -0.031
37 -0.014 -0.007 -0.015 -0.017
38 -0.027 -0.013 -0.023 -0.023
39 -0.032 -0.022 -0.032 -0.032
40 -0.037 -0.024 -0.033 -0.031
41 -0.033 -0.030 -0.035 -0.034
42 -0.039 -0.024 -0.033 -0.032
43 -0.039 -0.026 -0.037 -0.035
44 -0.022 -0.019 -0.025 -0.026
45 -0.006 -0.007 -0.008 -0.009
46 0.022 0.005 0.010 0.009
47 -0.003 0.001 -0.004 -0.004
48 -0.002 0.002 -0.001 -0.001
49 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.006
50 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 -0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003
52 0.005 0.003 0.003 0.006
53 0.011 0.006 0.004 0.008
54 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.001
55 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.001
56 0.002 0.004 0.003 0.006
57 0.020 0.015 0.016 0.017
58 0.024 0.017 0.018 0.020
59 0.009 0.012 0.006 0.012
60 0.026 0.023 0.024 0.025
61 0.026 0.018 0.017 0.020
62 0.022 0.021 0.017 0.020
63 0.035 0.030 0.029 0.032
64 0.024 0.028 0.024 0.029
65 0.027 0.030 0.025 0.029
66 0.026 0.027 0.023 0.027
67 0.030 0.035 0.031 0.036
68 0.052 0.048 0.047 0.049
69 0.050 0.056 0.048 0.053
70 0.059 0.063 0.057 0.061
71 0.034 0.049 0.041 0.048
72 0.066 0.066 0.065 0.068
73 0.066 0.065 0.062 0.063
74 0.064 0.075 0.067 0.069
75 0.064 0.076 0.067 0.071
76 0.071 0.083 0.074 0.079
77 0.094 0.097 0.093 0.094
78 0.100 0.111 0.103 0.106
79 0.104 0.119 0.111 0.115
80 0.097 0.113 0.101 0.106
81 0.106 0.124 0.112 0.117
82 0.120 0.133 0.126 0.128
83 0.116 0.139 0.125 0.128
84 0.144 0.148 0.143 0.144
85 0.152 0.166 0.154 0.157
86 0.155 0.169 0.160 0.164
87 0.152 0.167 0.156 0.159
88 0.161 0.178 0.166 0.169
89 0.209 0.212 0.210 0.210
90 0.204 0.215 0.202 0.211
91 0.207 0.217 0.209 0.215
92 0.215 0.218 0.208 0.214
93 0.224 0.222 0.212 0.225
94 0.250 0.222 0.212 0.226
95 0.219 0.214 0.203 0.220

Note: Plots represent the actual and counterfactual changes in the 5th through 95th percentiles of the male and female pooled wage distribution. Counterfactual changes in Panel A are calculated by adjusting the 1979 wage distributions by the value of states' effective minima in 1988 using coefficients from OLS regressions (column 1 of table 2) and 2SLS regressions (columns 5 and 6 of table 2). Counterfactual changes in Panel B are calculated by adjusting both the 1979 and 2009 wage distributions by the value of states' effective minima in 1988 using coefficients from OLS regressions (column 1 of table 2) and 2SLS regressions (columns 5 and 6 of table 2).

Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: Theoretical relationship between deviations in the minimum and latent wage percentile, and differences between the minimum wage and latent percentile

Verbal description: Chart depicts a single curve. X-axis is log(minimum wage) - log (latent wage for percentile p). Y-axis is log(wage for percentile p) - log (latent wage for percentile p). Only positive values for y-axis are shown. The curve depicts the theoretical relationship between deviations in the minimum and latent wage percentile (what is plotted on the x-axis) and differences between the minimum wage and latent percentile (what is plotted on the y-axis). The curve looks as follows, starting from its leftmost point: for highly negative values of log(min)-log(latent wage for p), the curve lies on the x-axis (interpretation: for high wage percentiles, there is no minimum wage effect, so the actual and latent wages are the same). As we move to the right, the curve slowly rises from the X-axis: for lower wage percentiles, we start to see some influence of the minimum wage, pushing the actual wage above the latent. Eventually, at some point past the intersection of the x and y axes, the curve meets the 45 degree line. The interpretation of this is that, for points in the distribution for which the latent wage is lower than the minimum, the minimum boosts the observed wage up to the value of the minimum.

Return to Figure 8

Figure 9: Average difference between actual and latent percentiles

percentile female male pooled
3 0.189 0.091 0.215
4 0.216 0.073 0.201
5 0.215 0.058 0.179
6 0.202 0.045 0.158
7 0.186 0.034 0.139
8 0.170 0.024 0.122
9 0.155 0.018 0.109
10 0.142 0.014 0.097
11 0.130 0.009 0.087
12 0.119 0.005 0.079
13 0.111 0.003 0.071
14 0.102 0.000 0.064
15 0.095 -0.002 0.059
16 0.088 -0.004 0.053
17 0.082 -0.005 0.048
18 0.076 -0.006 0.044
19 0.071 -0.007 0.040
20 0.066 -0.007 0.037
21 0.062 -0.008 0.034
22 0.059 -0.009 0.031
23 0.055 -0.009 0.027
24 0.051 -0.009 0.025
25 0.048 -0.009 0.023
26 0.045 -0.009 0.021
27 0.042 -0.009 0.019
28 0.039 -0.010 0.016
29 0.036 -0.009 0.015
30 0.033 -0.008 0.013
31 0.031 -0.008 0.012
32 0.029 -0.008 0.010
33 0.027 -0.008 0.009
34 0.025 -0.007 0.008
35 0.023 -0.007 0.008
36 0.021 -0.007 0.007
37 0.020 -0.006 0.005
38 0.019 -0.006 0.004
39 0.017 -0.005 0.003
40 0.015 -0.005 0.003
41 0.014 -0.004 0.003
42 0.013 -0.004 0.002
43 0.011 -0.003 0.002
44 0.010 -0.003 0.001
45 0.009 -0.002 0.001
46 0.007 -0.002 0.000
47 0.007 -0.001 0.000
48 0.005 -0.002 -0.000
49 0.004 -0.002 -0.000
50 0.004 -0.002 0.000
51 0.003 -0.002 0.000
52 0.002 -0.001 0.000
53 0.001 -0.000 -0.000
54 0.000 -0.000 -0.000
55 0.000 0.000 -0.000
56 -0.000 0.001 -0.000
57 -0.001 0.001 -0.000
58 -0.001 0.000 -0.001
59 -0.001 0.000 -0.000
60 -0.001 0.000 -0.000
61 -0.001 0.000 -0.000
62 -0.001 0.000 0.000
63 -0.002 -0.000 0.001
64 -0.002 -0.000 0.001
65 -0.001 0.000 0.000
66 -0.001 0.001 0.000
67 -0.001 0.001 0.001
68 -0.001 0.000 0.000
69 -0.000 0.000 -0.000
70 0.000 0.000 -0.000
71 0.000 -0.000 -0.000
72 0.001 -0.000 -0.000
73 0.002 -0.001 -0.000
74 0.002 -0.001 -0.000
75 0.003 -0.001 -0.000

Note: Deviations are averaged across all states and years. See text for description of how deviations are computed.

Return to Figure 9

Figure 10A: Total, direct, and spillover effects of the minimum wage on the log(50)-log(10), by gender and year--FEMALES

year Total effect direct effect spillover effect
1979 0.188 0.183 0.005
1980 0.182 0.170 0.012
1981 0.185 0.177 0.008
1982 0.158 0.123 0.034
1983 0.148 0.104 0.044
1984 0.129 0.071 0.058
1985 0.119 0.049 0.069
1986 0.103 0.027 0.076
1987 0.089 0.015 0.074
1988 0.074 0.006 0.068
1989 0.071 0.012 0.059
1990 0.097 0.025 0.072
1991 0.121 0.052 0.068
1992 0.102 0.029 0.073
1993 0.090 0.016 0.074
1994 0.098 0.025 0.073
1995 0.095 0.022 0.073
1996 0.082 0.011 0.071
1997 0.107 0.036 0.071
1998 0.127 0.062 0.065
1999 0.113 0.042 0.071
2000 0.096 0.025 0.071
2001 0.090 0.023 0.067
2002 0.085 0.024 0.061
2003 0.087 0.032 0.054
2004 0.075 0.023 0.051
2005 0.085 0.032 0.053
2006 0.081 0.029 0.052
2007 0.113 0.063 0.050
2008 0.114 0.059 0.054
2009 0.121 0.061 0.060

Note: Plots display the total effect of the minimum wage, and the total effect decomposed into the direct and spillover effects.

Return to Figure 10

Figure 10B: Total, direct, and spillover effects of the minimum wage on the log(50)-log(10), by gender and year--MALES

year Total effect direct effect spillover effect
1979 0.049 0.003 0.046
1980 0.044 0.002 0.042
1981 0.043 0.001 0.042
1982 0.027 0.000 0.027
1983 0.027 0.000 0.027
1984 0.015 0.000 0.015
1985 0.007 0.000 0.007
1986 0.000 0.000 0.000
1987 -0.002 0.000 -0.002
1988 0.003 0.000 0.003
1989 -0.001 0.000 -0.001
1990 0.009 0.000 0.009
1991 0.029 0.001 0.028
1992 0.032 0.001 0.031
1993 0.028 0.002 0.027
1994 0.035 0.003 0.032
1995 0.023 0.001 0.022
1996 0.014 0.000 0.014
1997 0.041 0.002 0.039
1998 0.055 0.004 0.051
1999 0.042 0.002 0.039
2000 0.027 0.001 0.026
2001 0.018 0.000 0.018
2002 0.020 0.000 0.019
2003 0.025 0.003 0.022
2004 0.018 0.002 0.016
2005 0.024 0.002 0.021
2006 0.024 0.003 0.021
2007 0.041 0.006 0.035
2008 0.056 0.014 0.041
2009 0.076 0.027 0.048

Note: Plots display the total effect of the minimum wage, and the total effect decomposed into the direct and spillover effects.

Return to Figure 10

Figure 10C: Total, direct, and spillover effects of the minimum wage on the log(50)-log(10), by gender and year--MALES AND FEMALES

year Total effect direct effect spillover effect
1979 0.141 0.068 0.073
1980 0.142 0.070 0.073
1981 0.148 0.076 0.071
1982 0.121 0.043 0.078
1983 0.108 0.030 0.077
1984 0.082 0.010 0.072
1985 0.077 0.008 0.069
1986 0.067 0.003 0.064
1987 0.059 0.002 0.058
1988 0.058 0.003 0.055
1989 0.057 0.010 0.047
1990 0.072 0.011 0.061
1991 0.083 0.008 0.074
1992 0.083 0.009 0.074
1993 0.075 0.005 0.070
1994 0.079 0.007 0.072
1995 0.072 0.005 0.067
1996 0.063 0.005 0.058
1997 0.085 0.010 0.075
1998 0.100 0.021 0.078
1999 0.084 0.009 0.075
2000 0.076 0.009 0.067
2001 0.067 0.008 0.058
2002 0.071 0.020 0.052
2003 0.071 0.025 0.046
2004 0.053 0.008 0.044
2005 0.060 0.011 0.049
2006 0.061 0.010 0.052
2007 0.091 0.033 0.058
2008 0.093 0.037 0.056
2009 0.110 0.046 0.064

Note: Plots display the total effect of the minimum wage, and the total effect decomposed into the direct and spillover effects.

Return to Figure 10

Figure 11A: Comparison of changes in actual, latent and counterfactual 50-10 inequality--FEMALES

year actual 10-50 OLS counterfactual 2SLS counterfactual (first differenced) latent 10-50
1979 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1980 -0.039 -0.021 -0.028 -0.028
1981 -0.018 -0.005 -0.016 -0.005
1982 -0.114 -0.025 -0.070 -0.100
1983 -0.148 -0.044 -0.097 -0.093
1984 -0.157 -0.044 -0.113 -0.073
1985 -0.198 -0.043 -0.131 -0.114
1986 -0.221 -0.045 -0.150 -0.123
1987 -0.242 -0.052 -0.165 -0.133
1988 -0.234 -0.033 -0.149 -0.107
1989 -0.246 -0.025 -0.155 -0.113
1990 -0.250 -0.063 -0.170 -0.169
1991 -0.224 -0.065 -0.155 -0.139
1992 -0.217 -0.042 -0.140 -0.130
1993 -0.215 -0.023 -0.139 -0.106
1994 -0.206 -0.027 -0.127 -0.090
1995 -0.222 -0.016 -0.135 -0.115
1996 -0.272 -0.009 -0.154 -0.168
1997 -0.234 -0.033 -0.148 -0.138
1998 -0.181 0.000 -0.101 -0.109
1999 -0.218 -0.022 -0.134 -0.126
2000 -0.210 0.001 -0.127 -0.100
2001 -0.231 0.004 -0.133 -0.122
2002 -0.218 0.026 -0.116 -0.140
2003 -0.223 0.013 -0.132 -0.102
2004 -0.237 0.022 -0.137 -0.106
2005 -0.275 0.004 -0.160 -0.157
2006 -0.276 -0.002 -0.167 -0.152
2007 -0.270 -0.012 -0.156 -0.210
2008 -0.246 -0.018 -0.159 -0.162
2009 -0.252 -0.033 -0.156 -0.202

Notes: All series show changes in the indicated measure relative to its 1979 level. The 2SLS counterfactual 10-50 is estimated using regression coefficients from 2SLS estimation in first-differences with state and year fixed effects. The OLS counterfactual is estimated from OLS regression estimates with year fixed effects. Latent 10-50 is estimated by subtracting the total minimum wage effect on the 10-50 (what is plotted in figure 10) from actual 10-50 inequality.

Return to Figure 11

Figure 11B: Comparison of changes in actual, latent and counterfactual 50-10 inequality --MALES

year actual 10-50 OLS counterfactual 2SLS counterfactual (first differenced) latent 10-50
1979 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1980 -0.011 -0.004 -0.016 -0.010
1981 -0.012 -0.003 -0.012 -0.008
1982 -0.025 -0.019 -0.031 0.000
1983 -0.066 -0.035 -0.060 -0.045
1984 -0.115 -0.036 -0.087 -0.087
1985 -0.082 -0.024 -0.076 -0.044
1986 -0.099 -0.029 -0.086 -0.055
1987 -0.105 -0.026 -0.094 -0.058
1988 -0.077 0.002 -0.065 -0.032
1989 -0.025 0.052 -0.016 0.025
1990 -0.074 -0.004 -0.062 -0.041
1991 -0.112 -0.031 -0.092 -0.103
1992 -0.078 -0.024 -0.074 -0.066
1993 -0.063 -0.013 -0.055 -0.044
1994 -0.063 -0.002 -0.052 -0.051
1995 -0.054 0.014 -0.042 -0.030
1996 -0.025 0.034 -0.016 0.011
1997 -0.066 0.011 -0.050 -0.068
1998 -0.025 0.004 -0.022 -0.032
1999 -0.014 0.028 -0.007 -0.002
2000 -0.047 0.039 -0.034 -0.030
2001 -0.025 0.045 -0.014 0.005
2002 -0.025 0.060 -0.010 0.002
2003 -0.028 0.057 -0.017 -0.005
2004 -0.025 0.049 -0.014 0.010
2005 -0.032 0.047 -0.021 -0.005
2006 -0.076 0.042 -0.051 -0.056
2007 -0.040 0.031 -0.029 -0.035
2008 -0.025 0.023 -0.020 -0.023
2009 -0.053 -0.018 -0.054 -0.069

Notes: All series show changes in the indicated measure relative to its 1979 level. The 2SLS counterfactual 10-50 is estimated using regression coefficients from 2SLS estimation in first-differences with state and year fixed effects. The OLS counterfactual is estimated from OLS regression estimates with year fixed effects. Latent 10-50 is estimated by subtracting the total minimum wage effect on the 10-50 (what is plotted in figure 10) from actual 10-50 inequality.

Return to Figure 11

Figure 12: Comparison of estimated effects of the minimum on the mean and density at the true spike--FEMALES

year estimated marginal effects (2SLS levels) estimated marginal effects (2SLS first differenced) Density of true spike, lower bound Density of true spike, upper bound
1979 0.064 0.085 0.067 0.128
1980 0.063 0.081 0.071 0.132
1981 0.063 0.080 0.063 0.126
1982 0.059 0.067 0.059 0.126
1983 0.058 0.060 0.052 0.125
1984 0.056 0.053 0.050 0.123
1985 0.054 0.046 0.043 0.113
1986 0.052 0.038 0.036 0.104
1987 0.050 0.032 0.031 0.098
1988 0.050 0.030 0.028 0.092
1989 0.048 0.024 0.021 0.082
1990 0.050 0.032 0.019 0.081
1991 0.052 0.041 0.045 0.108
1992 0.051 0.037 0.036 0.095
1993 0.050 0.031 0.029 0.087
1994 0.049 0.029 0.021 0.077
1995 0.049 0.026 0.018 0.074
1996 0.046 0.018 0.014 0.068
1997 0.050 0.031 0.022 0.076
1998 0.052 0.038 0.022 0.076
1999 0.050 0.032 0.018 0.071
2000 0.048 0.025 0.014 0.066
2001 0.047 0.019 0.012 0.065
2002 0.046 0.015 0.012 0.065
2003 0.044 0.010 0.008 0.078
2004 0.043 0.007 0.008 0.078
2005 0.043 0.007 0.009 0.079
2006 0.043 0.006 0.009 0.080
2007 0.046 0.018 0.015 0.088
2008 0.047 0.020 0.018 0.092
2009 0.048 0.025 0.023 0.097

Notes: Mean effects represent the average marginal effects of the minimum wage (weighted across states), estimated from 2SLS regressions of log(mean)-log(min) on the effective minimum and its square, year and state fixed effects, and state time trends (in the 2SLS levels specification). The bounds for the density of the true spike are estimated from an estimation procedure described in the text.

Return to Figure 12

Figure 12: Comparison of estimated effects of the minimum on the mean and density at the true spike--MALES

year estimated marginal effects (2SLS levels) estimated marginal effects (2SLS first differenced) Density of true spike, lower bound Density of true spike, upper bound
1979 0.019 0.026 0.026 0.065
1980 0.019 0.025 0.031 0.070
1981 0.019 0.025 0.035 0.078
1982 0.019 0.025 0.031 0.076
1983 0.020 0.025 0.031 0.063
1984 0.020 0.024 0.027 0.060
1985 0.020 0.024 0.024 0.056
1986 0.021 0.024 0.020 0.053
1987 0.021 0.024 0.019 0.052
1988 0.021 0.024 0.018 0.049
1989 0.021 0.023 0.014 0.048
1990 0.021 0.024 0.011 0.046
1991 0.020 0.024 0.024 0.060
1992 0.020 0.024 0.021 0.055
1993 0.020 0.024 0.018 0.053
1994 0.020 0.024 0.013 0.048
1995 0.021 0.024 0.011 0.046
1996 0.021 0.024 0.009 0.044
1997 0.020 0.024 0.013 0.046
1998 0.020 0.025 0.014 0.047
1999 0.020 0.024 0.012 0.045
2000 0.020 0.024 0.009 0.044
2001 0.021 0.024 0.009 0.042
2002 0.021 0.024 0.008 0.044
2003 0.021 0.023 0.006 0.046
2004 0.021 0.023 0.007 0.048
2005 0.021 0.023 0.008 0.047
2006 0.021 0.023 0.008 0.048
2007 0.021 0.024 0.012 0.054
2008 0.020 0.024 0.013 0.053
2009 0.020 0.024 0.017 0.059

Notes: Mean effects represent the average marginal effects of the minimum wage (weighted across states), estimated from 2SLS regressions of log(mean)-log(min) on the effective minimum and its square, year and state fixed effects, and state time trends (in the 2SLS levels specification). The bounds for the density of the true spike are estimated from an estimation procedure described in the text.

Return to Figure 12

Figure 12: Comparison of estimated effects of the minimum on the mean and density at the true spike--MALES AND FEMALES

year estimated marginal effects (2SLS levels) estimated marginal effects (2SLS first differenced) Density of true spike, lower bound Density of true spike, upper bound
1979 0.046 0.104 0.050 0.098
1980 0.046 0.100 0.054 0.104
1981 0.046 0.099 0.056 0.108
1982 0.046 0.083 0.048 0.103
1983 0.046 0.075 0.042 0.094
1984 0.045 0.064 0.039 0.090
1985 0.045 0.053 0.033 0.083
1986 0.045 0.043 0.028 0.077
1987 0.045 0.034 0.025 0.073
1988 0.045 0.035 0.023 0.069
1989 0.045 0.028 0.018 0.065
1990 0.045 0.043 0.015 0.062
1991 0.045 0.057 0.034 0.083
1992 0.045 0.052 0.028 0.074
1993 0.045 0.046 0.024 0.070
1994 0.045 0.043 0.016 0.061
1995 0.045 0.035 0.014 0.059
1996 0.045 0.029 0.012 0.056
1997 0.045 0.048 0.017 0.060
1998 0.045 0.059 0.020 0.064
1999 0.045 0.048 0.015 0.057
2000 0.045 0.039 0.012 0.056
2001 0.045 0.030 0.010 0.053
2002 0.045 0.027 0.010 0.055
2003 0.045 0.021 0.007 0.061
2004 0.045 0.014 0.007 0.062
2005 0.045 0.015 0.008 0.062
2006 0.045 0.015 0.009 0.063
2007 0.045 0.032 0.013 0.070
2008 0.045 0.035 0.015 0.072
2009 0.045 0.043 0.021 0.079

Notes: Mean effects represent the average marginal effects of the minimum wage (weighted across states), estimated from 2SLS regressions of log(mean)-log(min) on the effective minimum and its square, year and state fixed effects, and state time trends (in the 2SLS levels specification). The bounds for the density of the true spike are estimated from an estimation procedure described in the text.

Return to Figure 12
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Last update: December 22, 2010