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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2012-14 ^♣

Mortgage Debt and Household Deleveraging: Accounting for the Decline in Mortgage Debt Using Consumer Credit Record Data

Neil Bhutta

Figure 1: Household Debt as Percent of Household Disposable Income.

Year	Percent
1999	72.864
2000	74.179
2001	78.367
2002	84.795
2003	88.396
2004	98.040
2005	103.916
2006	109.377
2007	114.180
2008	112.765
2009	112.065
2010	102.987
2011	94.917

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Outstanding Household Debt.

Year	All Debt	Mortgage Debt
1999	6.466	4.653
2000	6.970	5.002
2001	7.598	5.412
2002	8.362	6.063
2003	9.027	6.564
2004	10.282	7.795
2005	11.059	8.500
2006	12.086	9.501
2007	12.910	10.257
2008	12.961	10.315
2009	12.581	10.012
2010	11.909	9.508
2011	10.977	8.994

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Two-Year Dollar Inflows and Outflows.

Period	Entrants	Increasers	Exiters	Decreasers
1999-01	1.175	0.563	-0.632	-0.491
2001-03	1.578	1.022	-0.951	-0.525
2003-05	2.021	1.403	-0.822	-0.688
2005-07	1.820	1.637	-0.875	-0.891
2007-09	1.087	0.830	-1.048	-1.085
2009-11	0.882	0.497	-1.179	-1.188

Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: Number of Borrowers by Group.

Period	Entrants	Increasers	Exiters	Decreasers
1999-01	14.963	12.989	11.093	36.166
2001-03	16.727	22.120	13.620	29.720
2003-05	17.369	22.627	11.392	35.314
2005-07	13.292	23.105	10.867	41.824
2007-09	9.534	17.936	10.110	49.970
2009-11	8.178	12.528	10.609	54.936

Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: First-time Homebuying Activity: The Propensity of Young Individuals to Enter.

	1999-01	2005-07	2009-11	Percent Change 1999-01 to 2009-11	Memo: Share in 1999	Memo: Share in 2009
Credit Score - All	0.14	0.12	0.07	-51	100	100
Credit Score - 740+	0.2	0.19	0.16	-22	12	15
Credit Score - 680-739	0.2	0.19	0.13	-36	16	14
Credit Score - 620-679	0.18	0.16	0.09	-51	19	18
Credit Score - <620	0.09	0.07	0.02	-77	53	53
Memo: Fraction never had a mortgage	0.57	0.54	0.58

Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: Percent Change in Propensity of Young Individuals to Enter from 1999-01 to 2009-11 Grouped by Degree of Unemployment in County of Residence.

Credit Score	Unemployment<=8%	Unemployment>=11%
<620	-75	-80
620-679	-42	-57
680-739	-33	-32
740+	-14	-25

Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: Dollar Inflows from Balance Increasers.

Period	Investors	Non-Investors
1999-01	0.222	0.354
2001-03	0.362	0.679
2003-05	0.573	0.808
2005-07	0.818	0.814
2007-09	0.379	0.449
2009-11	0.203	0.284

Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: Number of Increasers.

Period	Investors	Non-Investors
1999-01	3.241	9.772
2001-03	3.518	18.672
2003-05	4.090	18.447
2005-07	5.382	17.640
2007-09	3.668	14.261
2009-11	2.263	10.363

Return to Figure 8

Figure 9: Dollar Outflows from Exiters.

Period	Not Distressed	Distressed Non-Investors	Distressed Investors
1999-01	-0.502	-0.123	-0.015
2001-03	-0.746	-0.191	-0.026
2003-05	-0.579	-0.231	-0.027
2005-07	-0.593	-0.238	-0.029
2007-09	-0.564	-0.384	-0.092
2009-11	-0.537	-0.512	-0.118

Return to Figure 9

Figure 10: Number of Exiters.

Period	Not Distressed	Distressed Non-Investors	Distressed Investors
1999-01	8.636	2.376	0.128
2001-03	10.500	3.032	0.197
2003-05	8.115	3.218	0.193
2005-07	7.845	2.829	0.149
2007-09	6.788	3.049	0.214
2009-11	6.520	3.718	0.316

Return to Figure 10

Figure 11: Fraction of Distressed Exiters with a Foreclosure.

Period	Fraction
1999-01	0.101
2001-03	0.111
2003-05	0.121
2005-07	0.142
2007-09	0.252
2009-11	0.266

Return to Figure 11

Figure 12: Dollar Outflows from Balance Decreasers.

Period	Not Distressed	Distressed Non-Investors	Distressed Investors
1999-01	-0.434	-0.035	-0.023
2001-03	-0.443	-0.042	-0.031
2003-05	-0.596	-0.055	-0.031
2005-07	-0.769	-0.066	-0.048
2007-09	-0.753	-0.130	-0.201
2009-11	-0.831	-0.147	-0.220

Return to Figure 12

Figure 13: Number of Balance Decreasers.

Period	Not Distressed	Distressed Non-Investors	Distressed Investors
1999-01	31.464	4.299	0.502
2001-03	24.189	4.833	0.586
2003-05	29.705	4.767	0.568
2005-07	35.765	5.131	0.589
2007-09	40.559	7.778	1.361
2009-11	44.149	8.900	1.616

Return to Figure 13

Figure 14: Median Annual Paydown Rate Among Decreasers.

Period	Median Paydown Rate	Proportion Decreasing Balances
1999-01	0.027	0.769
2001-03	0.037	0.564
2003-05	0.042	0.625
2005-07	0.036	0.679
2007-09	0.027	0.751
2009-11	0.026	0.825

Return to Figure 14

Figure 15: Share of Households "Doubling-Up".

Survey Year	Share
1995	0.230
1996	0.232
1997	0.237
1998	0.231
1999	0.230
2000	0.232
2001	0.229
2002	0.226
2003	0.225
2004	0.224
2005	0.227
2006	0.230
2007	0.228
2007Q4	Start of Recession
2008	0.229
2009	0.234
2010	0.246
2011	0.244

Return to Figure 15

A1. Mortgage Inflows and Outflows 2005-2007 versus 2009-2011.

	Dollars (trillions current) 2005-2007	Number of borrowers (millions) 2005-2007	Dollars (trillions current) 2009-2011	Number of borrowers (millions) 2009-2011
Inflows	3.46	36.4	1.38	20.71
Inflows - Entrants	1.82	13.29	0.88	8.18
Inflows - Entrants Potential Refinancers*	0.2	1.47	0.12	0.97
Inflows - Increasers	1.64	23.11	0.5	12.53
Inflows - Increasers Investors	0.82	5.38	0.2	2.26
Inflows - Increasers Non-investors	0.81	17.64	0.28	10.36
Outflows	-1.77	52.69	-2.37	65.55
Outflows - Exiters	-0.88	10.87	-1.18	10.61
Outflows - Exiters Not-distressed	-0.59	7.84	-0.54	6.52
Outflows - Exiters Distressed Non-investors	-0.24	2.83	-0.51	3.72
Outflows - Exiters Distressed Investors	-0.03	0.15	-0.12	0.32
Outflows - Decreasers	-0.89	41.82	-1.19	54.94
Outflows - Decreasers Not-distressed	-0.77	35.76	-0.83	44.15
Outflows - Decreasers Distressed Non-investors	-0.07	5.13	-0.15	8.9
Outflows - Decreasers Distressed Investors	-0.05	0.59	-0.22	1.62

Return to Figure A1

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