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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for FEDS 2012-73 ♣

Job-to-Job Flows and the Consequences of Job Separations

Bruce Fallick, John Haltiwanger, and Erika McEntarfer

Figure 1: Real quarterly earnings for distressed spearators vs. stayers: 1995 sample

date Job Stayers (distressed employers) Job Separators (distressed employers)
1992.2 8794.8572654 6552.1050439
1992.3 9072.6458334 6694.5212901
1992.4 9283.4907899 6912.9877067
1993.1 9123.5359162 6668.6695742
1993.2 9474.0861023 7091.9421417
1993.3 9701.0683078 7389.2224528
1993.4 9833.1972301 7676.094636
1994.1 9897.644901 7683.9523936
1994.2 10085.585031 8205.1165097
1994.3 10484.244717 8635.5784494
1994.4 10184.248434 8404.5999814
1995.1 10335.353957 8263.088888
1995.2 10343.440581 7414.8481361
1995.3 10308.191404 5010.8127557
1995.4 10388.789581 5552.0345757
1996.1 10547.063623 5768.2055219
1996.2 10616.738998 6057.9556613
1996.3 10605.33002 6270.7686424
1996.4 10697.662364 6323.8840995
1997.1 10802.107446 6362.0474453
1997.2 10611.771081 6511.395501
1997.3 10484.916467 6636.9585106
1997.4 10513.823061 6721.4259495
1998.1 10523.888341 6859.1144392
1998.2 10565.124878 6999.6654162
1998.3 10274.315341 7101.1231396
1998.4 10593.743335 7239.6068356
1999.1 10126.963714 6913.8304499
1999.2 10208.385944 7121.4534782
1999.3 10335.179005 7302.316819
1999.4 10436.910114 7397.7562022
2000.1 10220.920045 7328.1187317
2000.2 10243.546062 7389.1470807
2000.3 10241.666676 7415.4067893
2000.4 10120.781684 7414.3850714
2001.1 10250.618143 7467.2830517
2001.2 10127.995833 7396.1195933
2001.3 9930.7081394 7274.9941216
2001.4 9773.3322386 7196.2120187
2002.1 9792.9105193 7172.3007854
2002.2 9681.340244 7105.5667479
2002.3 9543.2125408 7035.853098
2002.4 9414.7192903 6994.1506349
2003.1 9388.56641 6944.3694334
2003.2 9225.9407289 6872.565068
2003.3 9112.2568699 6809.3563714
2003.4 9146.5539397 6836.6397602
2004.1 9003.3247223 6767.2729704
2004.2 8953.2725955 6796.1618961
2004.3 8982.1728119 6820.2568352
2004.4 8919.9892086 6873.7692453
2005.1 8571.7827992 6603.9859886
2005.2 8703.0582751 6749.73448
2005.3 8823.3983064 6842.2387268
2005.4 8637.6075575 6718.9967092
2006.1 8596.267826 6746.8656816
2006.2 8620.5404405 6705.8441591
2006.3 8451.2911325 6625.5463133
2006.4 8412.7759357 6634.1964273
2007.1 8508.5615187 6661.6239756
2007.2 8403.7348501 6626.4660588
2007.3 8251.990574 6543.0648103
2007.4 8165.1867661 6503.6730333
2008.1 8012.5558122 6438.4478161
2008.2 7962.5470371 6363.446618
2008.3 7818.1829827 6286.8602249
2008.4 7739.4593072 6203.1000721
2009.1 7625.6148076 6067.3785752
2009.2 7394.6065856 5946.3229224
2009.3 7319.5844887 5793.7978952
2009.4 7222.6113093 5830.8857438
2010.1 6908.922558 5572.4473915
2010.2 6921.648555 5651.1504638
2010.3 6951.7468253 5657.071797
2010.4 6768.9942773 5631.9211708
Return to Figure 1

Figure 2a: Real quarterly earnings for distressed spearators vs. stayers: 1995 sample

date Job Stayers (distressed employers) New job in same quarter New job in adjacent quarter Full-quarter non-emp Two or three quarters non-emp Four or more quarters non-emp
1992.2 8794.8572654 7252.460958 6292.212724 6246.5299588 5948.177526 5639.3784269
1992.3 9072.6458334 7382.9330328 6403.940785 6469.368042 6241.1343549 5863.4843406
1992.4 9283.4907899 7681.0605311 6582.0031643 6460.2417945 6740.4326894 6064.2861464
1993.1 9123.5359162 7610.6957251 6509.1256746 5857.3318133 5915.2968088 5592.0080637
1993.2 9474.0861023 7806.9166003 6844.4327367 6671.4958291 6385.9501709 6199.0366702
1993.3 9701.0683078 8078.6178229 7137.2075457 7040.5812796 6874.4892522 6644.3353465
1993.4 9833.1972301 8426.2162805 7495.3091364 7125.0942885 7321.8170824 6891.736141
1994.1 9897.644901 8550.6253683 7595.4658206 6863.716435 6867.2723648 6739.36458
1994.2 10085.585031 8829.1521049 8147.7606117 7654.229842 7346.4449754 7476.346963
1994.3 10484.244717 9291.9645411 8476.5016213 8226.2523067 8105.1587209 7948.4722808
1994.4 10184.248434 9141.4244816 8218.2040595 7810.9350549 8075.36462 7755.2123991
1995.1 10335.353957 9225.507579 8232.2742391 7292.1037683 7314.8011418 7171.5433335
1995.2 10343.440581 9368.6243162 7015.8751897 5962.0873799 5467.1790008 5091.8468461
1995.3 10308.191404 8870.7666821 5645.9766415 0 0 0
1995.4 10388.789581 8721.5604559 6795.2610391 4089.9047617 0 0
1996.1 10547.063623 8668.8117936 6712.0976929 4808.2387992 2163.1212976 0
1996.2 10616.738998 8602.7579447 6922.6525261 5422.3157291 4179.888856 0
1996.3 10605.33002 8621.101596 7088.3960119 5637.1531077 5096.937732 628.87863522
1996.4 10697.662364 8689.8633663 7058.5835458 5553.4156969 5091.2176103 1056.6507866
1997.1 10802.107446 8733.6739836 7178.8435495 5255.7907525 4903.7170428 1202.9012816
1997.2 10611.771081 8735.0338241 7251.0289268 5681.696615 5037.2961102 1710.3439864
1997.3 10484.916467 8769.7413089 7319.2945805 6025.6032647 5285.1425269 2148.661294
1997.4 10513.823061 8838.6109966 7398.6203348 5955.7256569 5499.0372945 2345.5321432
1998.1 10523.888341 8973.0238266 7445.3286201 5888.6252149 5280.9159323 3028.2077606
1998.2 10565.124878 9019.8325938 7566.8069761 6188.8110363 5406.2917802 3461.9730258
1998.3 10274.315341 9067.9712318 7623.7156828 6385.4394598 5640.5629778 3682.749682
1998.4 10593.743335 9242.7226337 7744.3716616 6417.2309216 5787.7617447 3833.8878745
1999.1 10126.963714 8817.990291 7470.2415216 6083.4863312 5573.6833519 3632.1522528
1999.2 10208.385944 9024.4914453 7672.783076 6366.1357558 5645.8093112 3901.0142978
1999.3 10335.179005 9181.5009618 7832.1682028 6569.215301 5923.4889489 4183.2380524
1999.4 10436.910114 9245.2508345 7945.5295353 6553.3842456 6038.0762433 4336.9343641
2000.1 10220.920045 9168.3909723 7887.2159833 6460.1469806 5986.7596129 4430.8117503
2000.2 10243.546062 9187.42313 7917.2918546 6614.5232565 5952.5542103 4598.5585522
2000.3 10241.666676 9174.1911511 7968.1681217 6604.7784812 6117.381995 4646.3874923
2000.4 10120.781684 9147.174839 7956.3834588 6623.2014823 6154.1926107 4711.2036636
2001.1 10250.618143 9192.4912989 8043.9108257 6650.4272536 6232.6198381 4745.1926335
2001.2 10127.995833 9115.714632 7937.4855505 6550.2414683 6131.5298589 4766.6241812
2001.3 9930.7081394 8969.107325 7828.2946165 6439.8152415 5924.0722405 4715.5641231
2001.4 9773.3322386 8899.7327803 7690.7392597 6370.179348 5783.5110801 4707.8789727
2002.1 9792.9105193 8866.9996935 7692.9189577 6413.7296771 5728.6794088 4617.1003514
2002.2 9681.340244 8747.3541602 7646.5148433 6316.0799576 5653.3161655 4663.2055187
2002.3 9543.2125408 8679.5280849 7524.3885486 6240.1180814 5600.2354933 4660.3844434
2002.4 9414.7192903 8622.4295977 7486.8610297 6189.9392517 5500.1516413 4615.879513
2003.1 9388.56641 8548.9031084 7434.7603837 6100.9607411 5520.5575017 4646.4367972
2003.2 9225.9407289 8468.7150769 7334.6226651 6114.5519959 5406.0579222 4611.2968554
2003.3 9112.2568699 8374.611802 7261.8774096 6043.5266131 5386.8647735 4632.6057807
2003.4 9146.5539397 8372.2721056 7302.1787198 5989.1810843 5545.1870552 4660.3456182
2004.1 9003.3247223 8325.0545794 7178.1604051 5971.9619752 5453.1190882 4636.1250581
2004.2 8953.2725955 8324.7246761 7243.2207685 5903.1795786 5587.5249257 4650.9894711
2004.3 8982.1728119 8375.3067615 7259.761496 5900.8379628 5494.8188326 4711.6790181
2004.4 8919.9892086 8386.6508292 7355.6240982 5989.2701512 5705.0341363 4727.8941067
2005.1 8571.7827992 8113.1299717 6986.6196926 5725.6636034 5337.6613103 4701.1855349
2005.2 8703.0582751 8267.2636782 7181.4680296 5797.03433 5542.5647129 4748.5315834
2005.3 8823.3983064 8330.7754685 7292.6375513 5957.6749271 5658.4654758 4895.9568211
2005.4 8637.6075575 8180.019225 7194.046166 5807.0088635 5546.7056384 4755.4653406
2006.1 8596.267826 8195.0679258 7240.7977753 5856.3168654 5583.2171699 4782.1522559
2006.2 8620.5404405 8123.3496259 7196.9896571 5835.9427603 5552.3503201 4763.4879982
2006.3 8451.2911325 8016.3175827 7112.6274175 5757.0927137 5543.9170157 4757.9770122
2006.4 8412.7759357 8053.5358523 7081.1436471 5747.92673 5481.1541828 4762.2290354
2007.1 8508.5615187 8055.4176306 7153.2062732 5739.6829469 5449.486639 4901.8035048
2007.2 8403.7348501 8039.729644 7048.0186566 5815.5632887 5416.1879168 4802.4118043
2007.3 8251.990574 7925.7353633 6923.3621641 5813.968273 5384.0581476 4814.7656617
2007.4 8165.1867661 7835.8795303 6854.3661171 5775.9949965 5341.4970497 4909.1284427
2008.1 8012.5558122 7777.3685053 6769.9327523 5733.2051389 5278.996186 4833.3724633
2008.2 7962.5470371 7667.0116484 6723.8926846 5597.0309325 5205.1909843 4815.3205699
2008.3 7818.1829827 7596.7981559 6683.5558061 5517.2008785 5067.5309027 4701.1247086
2008.4 7739.4593072 7481.9017828 6581.7942696 5422.5978918 5013.9039578 4625.9997829
2009.1 7625.6148076 7330.3325755 6379.613784 5324.714762 4938.0997683 4613.0138636
2009.2 7394.6065856 7208.9439733 6225.6750365 5183.9380632 4780.1687683 4543.8116233
2009.3 7319.5844887 7000.2373109 6087.9134229 5087.7862634 4664.482452 4434.4749063
2009.4 7222.6113093 7070.3880395 6119.1236662 5139.8428004 4698.1579081 4368.0153651
2010.1 6908.922558 6770.8054055 5880.3054442 4842.4833958 4478.7462374 4165.0906477
2010.2 6921.648555 6867.6079666 5927.9249957 5059.0549824 4407.1973998 4211.0208899
2010.3 6951.7468253 6905.8705253 5903.5591202 4954.4241836 4492.0951529 4239.8474895
2010.4 6768.9942773 6859.4734572 5903.384534 4967.1551292 4453.783951 4162.0365521
Return to Figure 2a

Figure 2b: Real quarterly earnings for distressed spearators vs. stayers: 1999 sample

date Job Stayers (distressed employers) New job in same quarter New job in adjacent quarter Full-quarter non-emp Two or three quarters non-emp Four or more quarters non-emp
1996.2 8297.68888 7086.857298 6602.501845 6960.42001 5603.923308 5592.794697
1996.3 8537.61226 7257.196375 6737.908158 7398.575577 6031.826734 5966.378995
1996.4 8536.241657 7453.89 6743.575197 7075.622415 5920.772789 5892.36934
1997.1 8917.260148 7849.172381 7078.89756 6974.0192 5884.042706 5868.930827
1997.2 9025.116172 7937.840276 7350.140145 7726.979485 6208.169846 6387.173036
1997.3 9332.368254 8262.411283 7687.686532 8165.559499 6835.375932 6737.688738
1997.4 9477.252488 8613.177193 7865.056792 8191.463228 7193.516772 6956.445539
1998.1 9724.051182 8872.004617 8071.932594 7779.457848 6813.831993 6745.863298
1998.2 10044.23764 9284.944055 8550.028039 8976.661365 7405.387909 7642.163326
1998.3 10144.68953 9521.993654 8782.508864 9259.125995 7988.572878 7949.457261
1998.4 10358.96401 9813.590849 8924.450227 9294.7116 8284.689212 7939.344742
1999.1 10035.07415 9281.305795 8378.532655 8054.615136 7128.832071 6946.940231
1999.2 10262.78956 9761.015029 7718.284029 7599.296061 5400.525476 5161.654749
1999.3 10407.25648 9458.023781 6600.574957 0 0 0
1999.4 10697.69917 9425.354157 7833.662211 6265.461789 0 0
2000.1 10654.75907 9256.802226 7735.782418 7055.427786 2719.607113 0
2000.2 10636.36721 9256.70235 7854.762216 7471.645703 4973.819433 0
2000.3 10785.35852 9307.509931 7880.052779 7949.038525 5887.070196 708.3376758
2000.4 10840.3338 9292.299288 7814.524449 7496.185788 5840.778837 1165.035222
2001.1 10845.45249 9250.225905 7801.167057 7193.593014 5599.681277 1661.294343
2001.2 10711.73359 9097.382587 7837.407621 7421.842795 5423.035468 2120.012191
2001.3 10301.85401 8855.051494 7700.825949 7525.517255 5593.583608 2664.302453
2001.4 10103.62295 8627.30889 7401.401062 7127.697054 5401.843861 2751.187802
2002.1 10134.48367 8652.223813 7381.938727 6801.550778 5176.559909 2798.782517
2002.2 10081.51414 8549.162289 7403.475697 6941.240165 5058.841351 2946.850319
2002.3 9958.579969 8479.059898 7389.648714 7008.752242 5255.725995 3160.461678
2002.4 9765.030727 8457.221159 7320.965753 6837.801266 5351.46135 3185.855833
2003.1 9731.984701 8432.020285 7275.346431 6847.709167 5204.516676 3277.987452
2003.2 9558.511335 8308.96238 7192.016129 6887.142905 5074.918173 3332.583243
2003.3 9407.830627 8242.494781 7145.284915 6788.907693 5215.025676 3405.61284
2003.4 9405.94677 8374.998591 7170.027927 6804.488619 5257.596861 3522.89071
2004.1 9317.598676 8251.599415 7132.982866 6745.335286 5177.595506 3515.018071
2004.2 9379.289717 8349.556934 7215.314096 6867.057435 5287.301568 3678.073459
2004.3 9405.369656 8402.51768 7251.268187 6846.476827 5345.720992 3718.610771
2004.4 9316.850401 8565.999794 7298.269643 6909.298962 5444.909607 3820.625344
2005.1 8999.691589 8156.372926 7062.972519 6671.819624 5235.969824 3704.193233
2005.2 9078.926673 8355.432519 7145.465503 6796.247375 5199.197802 3897.016275
2005.3 9240.387072 8453.932943 7351.859891 6963.922092 5518.71566 3971.332624
2005.4 8910.60614 8308.785171 7208.94396 6789.939591 5280.214043 3891.721388
2006.1 9079.843035 8328.611381 7284.937475 6914.566259 5433.315933 4089.581024
2006.2 9029.736185 8280.02236 7226.849113 6872.788806 5413.326482 4109.523693
2006.3 8967.192155 8209.35865 7154.356767 6802.312454 5331.660222 4165.598445
2006.4 8912.503274 8173.706205 7094.088271 6787.270888 5314.781122 4185.356637
2007.1 8988.411625 8274.885301 7193.812906 6811.642775 5450.495468 4259.676845
2007.2 8927.427665 8192.13487 7164.947275 6854.123096 5413.384362 4339.896226
2007.3 8837.894629 8134.612144 7141.622464 6805.136354 5312.77579 4281.53851
2007.4 8756.788061 8102.045578 7131.835645 6757.620296 5306.988422 4364.66031
2008.1 8637.724592 7977.201857 7021.51253 6686.571442 5258.677013 4328.755706
2008.2 8591.510163 7993.443745 6971.065422 6669.752523 5274.294447 4283.507732
2008.3 8486.467802 7882.506336 6907.757555 6636.354667 5214.945115 4289.024523
2008.4 8337.617594 7811.474598 6766.373881 6469.182065 5162.229706 4182.71211
2009.1 8181.97983 7657.199707 6616.030353 6325.015241 4976.989636 4167.604868
2009.2 7998.679401 7405.797769 6433.256635 6055.83782 4789.696084 4107.338805
2009.3 7906.941807 7270.676156 6269.708191 5869.188859 4681.944745 4095.733529
2009.4 7887.623827 7306.24893 6352.631962 5984.591408 4680.596744 4127.185331
Return to Figure 2b

Figure 2c: Real quarterly earnings for distressed spearators vs. stayers: 2001 sample

date Job Stayers (distressed employers) New job in same quarter New job in adjacent quarter Full-quarter non-emp Two or three quarters non-emp Four or more quarters non-emp
1998.2 8734.7697 7455.555416 7272.522025 6884.432737 6523.78739 6244.972485
1998.3 8961.317563 7707.705783 7572.649439 7326.607342 7107.710733 6633.050621
1998.4 9276.308851 8104.049832 7700.048509 7220.726203 7405.71859 6799.255965
1999.1 9056.255691 7962.98161 7519.594513 6421.667924 6574.430916 6190.21562
1999.2 9495.18727 8327.247843 8135.395566 7411.506334 7136.549727 6922.009716
1999.3 9830.214047 8623.574317 8460.128199 8084.498603 7917.379264 7544.107561
1999.4 10100.4588 9039.239679 8704.743057 8079.141116 8378.414696 7782.909786
2000.1 10226.5255 9414.536813 9035.661445 7960.428387 8134.917617 7769.085238
2000.2 10446.48738 9917.252906 9747.878673 9235.053377 8870.21676 8773.650417
2000.3 10704.01597 10158.48723 9986.038994 9754.368913 9461.456761 9266.410031
2000.4 10790.08171 10271.23012 9859.530144 9513.321991 9658.664802 9169.787023
2001.1 10830.54454 10199.90074 9773.017743 8831.072065 8874.157373 8478.787428
2001.2 10827.74191 9994.088393 8193.263067 6972.343644 6842.649345 6326.51375
2001.3 10656.69467 9756.823239 6757.013713 0 0 0
2001.4 10760.25772 9316.324083 7909.386218 4590.735281 0 0
2002.1 10925.66449 9187.237617 7958.016444 5666.16143 2343.875827 0
2002.2 11039.28025 8980.175691 7703.854192 6210.329077 4828.605213 0
2002.3 11019.18822 8835.997393 7786.314468 6550.30208 5889.56516 813.9149698
2002.4 11018.39863 8800.889508 7843.540888 6260.102115 5813.302496 1369.54573
2003.1 10872.79266 8796.368702 7816.72829 5796.538707 5410.242683 1712.077721
2003.2 10492.73565 8634.968246 7870.844774 6186.941547 5206.400512 2273.60525
2003.3 10209.61349 8644.229901 7911.139737 6494.058806 5686.648118 2783.612442
2003.4 10161.67263 8692.771793 7779.280711 6327.435417 5876.031291 2962.8792
2004.1 10051.70422 8628.378494 7718.52344 6070.293422 5585.88819 2987.008776
2004.2 10105.98177 8705.161726 7986.134364 6526.045163 5710.315914 3398.87902
2004.3 10027.68457 8699.326908 8055.781777 6672.898898 5956.765713 3691.055442
2004.4 10155.32406 8841.648878 8043.780822 6680.494484 6107.640882 3869.773588
2005.1 9684.019732 8491.345634 7706.447888 6229.166527 5800.590621 3728.078634
2005.2 9870.647246 8690.199876 7996.180144 6645.212003 5864.013488 4061.632553
2005.3 9974.028269 8825.782219 8188.458212 6779.996048 6051.881463 4261.029303
2005.4 9801.327108 8660.46274 7954.793444 6668.336198 6061.533127 4279.417227
2006.1 9728.732909 8727.496778 8069.384629 6699.233282 6145.636133 4426.773015
2006.2 9608.05854 8730.852935 8129.625393 6801.038001 6074.242955 4523.865097
2006.3 9571.352869 8676.450729 8010.764077 6753.484744 6052.904231 4585.376706
2006.4 9528.023831 8674.107996 7988.441894 6757.387808 6083.084742 4636.855332
2007.1 9601.264945 8741.773338 8063.871697 6791.021135 6162.957695 4721.990996
2007.2 9522.312888 8647.378629 7998.040186 6763.402664 6150.736567 4825.70395
2007.3 9370.030131 8602.961607 8019.09812 6783.078215 6095.38392 4884.030626
2007.4 9272.109763 8601.07841 7915.685276 6724.570877 6056.416843 4943.551401
2008.1 9305.738654 8507.506246 7842.675971 6675.590748 5978.991514 4888.95306
2008.2 9248.35796 8447.068218 7892.610655 6603.43556 5993.317298 4924.120314
2008.3 9180.888686 8347.346315 7777.847729 6559.156745 5883.175138 4889.812434
2008.4 9057.259942 8211.779482 7666.183605 6434.83961 5762.443809 4800.836469
2009.1 8671.684713 8043.713922 7510.355594 6227.842914 5592.083339 4701.889077
2009.2 8549.238861 7858.746165 7179.39138 6056.48092 5394.446029 4535.305529
2009.3 8381.131436 7679.733703 7119.702733 5922.481259 5267.579372 4442.339733
2009.4 8487.778095 7726.050919 7203.22387 5945.323272 5331.372779 4508.067708
2010.1 8015.013763 7391.823023 6963.807171 5723.268363 5116.862702 4398.805104
2010.2 8214.97714 7583.478921 7078.260616 5890.973328 5215.228339 4474.829354
2010.3 8253.860486 7566.965753 7058.179761 5807.661052 5326.435503 4472.390164
2010.4 8272.749436 7574.663145 7047.385053 5850.195135 5326.033267 4475.981838
Return to Figure 2c

Figure 3a: Earnings change relative to stayers: 1995 Sample percentage points

Quarters of nonemployment Closed Fast-shrinking Slow-shrinking Slow-growing Fast-growing
-1 -1.1477 3.2980 -0.2186 -0.0404 3.8306
0 -1.1691 -3.0936 -8.8264 -8.9486 -4.6348
1 -11.7670 -19.9265 -19.8249 -22.8858 -21.6171
2 -25.6381 -17.1730 -21.6222 -19.4019 -16.2851
3 -19.6558 -18.2447 -24.5284 -20.6180 -22.0560
4 -19.4133 -15.5991 -21.0171 -20.5559 -16.8803
5 -23.0738 -28.8928 -29.3537 -26.6283 -29.8632
6 -21.4658 -17.7877 -21.3270 -22.5700 -22.5242
7 -7.5245 -22.9196 -27.2544 -23.7898 -19.8289
8 -21.3127 -19.2361 -19.2917 -17.3796 -7.9089
Return to Figure 3a

Figure 3b: Earnings change relative to stayers: 1999 Sample percentage points

Quarters of nonemployment Closed Fast-shrinking Slow-shrinking Slow-growing Fast-growing
-1 -3.0665 3.4130 -0.3895 -0.9459 3.2343
0 6.4526 0.4265 -3.4538 -7.1237 -5.5620
1 -5.2324 -16.4916 -24.1259 -25.5488 -23.5262
2 -14.9835 -13.6974 -18.9230 -20.9245 -14.5000
3 -12.7057 -14.5616 -21.0215 -19.9514 -13.1897
4 -22.9293 -15.2390 -19.8080 -19.1580 -17.3566
5 -38.2106 -18.6818 -28.4158 -30.1545 -19.7785
6 -30.4306 -19.4916 -24.5278 -22.4771 -18.0104
7 -27.8138 -26.1882 -28.3655 -25.9783 -21.9298
8 -32.4351 -16.9202 -19.2302 -21.5478 -21.0933
Return to Figure 3b

Figure 3c: Earnings change relative to stayers: 2001 Sample percentage points

Quarters of nonemployment Closed Fast-shrinking Slow-shrinking Slow-growing Fast-growing
-1 -4.3650 3.1894 -0.9260 -1.5846 0.3519
0 -6.6100 2.6092 -9.7418 -8.3167 -9.5391
1 -17.2544 -19.2746 -20.7331 -24.1231 -20.7074
2 -18.7644 -17.7360 -22.1069 -24.4243 -20.9679
3 -24.2427 -18.8167 -23.8113 -23.7096 -24.0588
4 -18.4403 -18.0531 -23.8355 -21.2805 -18.6818
5 -26.4119 -27.0280 -29.7733 -32.7564 -28.7912
6 -26.0507 -24.2965 -26.7836 -26.1543 -20.4749
7 -25.2186 -22.4027 -24.9215 -25.3477 -16.6410
8 -22.1360 -19.6159 -23.7419 -21.9556 -17.4978
Return to Figure 3c

Figure 4a: Earnings change relative to stayers: 1995 Sample (10th percentile) percentage points

Quarters of nonemployment Closed Fast-shrinking Slow-shrinking Slow-growing Fast-growing
-1 1.7123 4.2696 -10.5405 -11.1644 4.9662
0 0.5093 -8.074 -21.2853 -21.4919 -4.8354
1 -14.966 -25.7202 -29.7987 -32.9735 -27.6326
2 -26.3638 -27.7574 -30.6412 -31.7735 -21.4743
3 -16.8382 -32.866 -34.7446 -35.5533 -31.3873
4 -26.9519 -17.6271 -28.1043 -28.4165 -22.2291
5 -22.5574 -37.1346 -36.6801 -35.6585 -35.6814
6 -38.0852 -22.6965 -29.9385 -33.9564 -35.9605
7 -8.5118 -24.6096 -36.4241 -33.8298 -33.699
8 -28.4789 -18.9153 -27.0262 -21.5031 -14.4868
Return to Figure 4a

Figure 4b: Earnings change relative to stayers: 1995 Sample (25th percentile) percentage points

Quarters of nonemployment Closed Fast-shrinking Slow-shrinking Slow-growing Fast-growing
-1 -4.9974 -1.3855 -5.8975 -7.3103 -1.4685
0 -8.2868 -11.1526 -17.4575 -19.0347 -13.2741
1 -17.2305 -27.4955 -29.8813 -32.3009 -29.9336
2 -29.1895 -23.3913 -29.9367 -30.8548 -24.5367
3 -21.3565 -36.0987 -35.4008 -32.2377 -30.8351
4 -32.8162 -28.0028 -30.7174 -32.8358 -29.0937
5 -36.1803 -36.3291 -39.5505 -37.7576 -36.5734
6 -30.5987 -23.2672 -28.9971 -35.2978 -32.4834
7 -8.448 -32.9463 -37.8879 -32.8089 -29.6613
8 -42.1649 -28.3381 -30.1019 -27.768 -26.5358
Return to Figure 4b

Figure 4c: Earnings change relative to stayers: 1995 Sample (50th percentile) percentage points

Quarters of nonemployment Closed Fast-shrinking Slow-shrinking Slow-growing Fast-growing
-1 -1.7737 0.9798 0.6933 0.7528 1.7425
0 -2.7061 -3.7815 -8.3349 -8.5892 -6.465
1 -8.371 -23.222 -19.6826 -20.7381 -20.5659
2 -22.431 -17.0081 -20.3976 -17.1832 -14.9686
3 -19.6141 -20.4522 -24.1599 -19.9883 -22.8223
4 -12.2368 -20.0324 -22.6924 -21.306 -21.585
5 -10.8748 -31.9081 -30.7485 -24.7963 -36.0958
6 -22.5686 -18.1429 -19.0073 -19.9088 -23.1379
7 -14.0434 -25.1748 -28.8468 -25.1854 -7.764
8 -45.4231 -27.0972 -19.6496 -16.7665 -16.0245
Return to Figure 4c

Figure 4d: Earnings change relative to stayers: 1995 Sample (75th percentile) percentage points

Quarters of nonemployment Closed Fast-shrinking Slow-shrinking Slow-growing Fast-growing
-1 -2.2697 2.2163 7.385 8.1776 4.8527
0 0.1559 -0.3535 1.2033 0.2816 -1.4161
1 -6.6463 -15.8503 -8.5226 -12.9226 -15.8792
2 -14.5958 -6.1491 -12.2511 -6.6914 -5.7529
3 -7.5827 -8.6975 -13.5025 -6.7132 -17.5746
4 -9.9048 -10.0615 -9.0662 -10.1394 -10.8148
5 -8.6948 -30.0182 -18.8501 -17.0794 -21.4024
6 -5.9681 -16.6116 -13.2397 -8.0965 -6.9392
7 -11.6124 -15.4002 -14.1297 -10.3177 -4.1245
8 12.1691 -16.9595 -7.9388 -7.8915 11.3887
Return to Figure 4d

Figure 4e: Earnings change relative to stayers: 1995 Sample (90th percentile) percentage points

Quarters of nonemployment Closed Fast-shrinking Slow-shrinking Slow-growing Fast-growing
-1 2.9377 2.9672 13.6765 13.7308 11.4385
0 6.3005 0.8181 8.094 7.8103 8.1979
1 -7.4466 -8.8334 1.7919 -7.4354 -13.2883
2 -28.6268 -2.2134 -9.9888 0.8427 -2.694
3 -24.9334 16.1259 -3.3881 3.4729 -7.3659
4 -11.2453 2.3021 -1.5034 0.7096 -2.6394
5 -35.1855 -23.9151 -9.3092 -8.6711 -15.2522
6 -3.2242 2.9753 -7.0543 -3.9895 -6.8197
7 9.1953 -0.2624 6.0594 -1.8337 -0.5193
8 26.2635 -3.5578 10.6094 6.9261 31.0846
Return to Figure 4e
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Last update: April 15, 2013