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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for FEDS 2012-83 ♣

The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound

Christopher Gust, David Lopez-Salido, and Matthew E. Smith

Figure 1: Smoothed Estimates of Model Objects Upper Left Panel: Output Growth

Dates Data Median Lower 68% CB Upper 68% CB
1983 0.9702 0.96209 0.87933 1.0431
1983.25 1.9628 1.8971 1.7902 2.0118
1983.5 1.6712 1.6614 1.5331 1.7692
1983.75 1.7593 1.7355 1.6114 1.8412
1984 1.5054 1.4816 1.3863 1.5857
1984.25 1.4577 1.4133 1.328 1.5105
1984.5 0.70073 0.70744 0.6139 0.76537
1984.75 0.50756 0.52032 0.41609 0.60463
1985 0.71845 0.68638 0.60042 0.77744
1985.25 0.60427 0.59495 0.49884 0.69858
1985.5 1.2881 1.2642 1.1892 1.3535
1985.75 0.46131 0.48643 0.35411 0.58636
1986 0.46376 0.47385 0.3714 0.58236
1986.25 0.12564 0.12532 0.03035 0.2021
1986.5 0.67399 0.66448 0.54391 0.74915
1986.75 0.19036 0.20626 0.10794 0.31871
1987 0.20247 0.19715 0.10563 0.27494
1987.25 0.76884 0.7197 0.65175 0.84007
1987.5 0.59609 0.6164 0.51147 0.71618
1987.75 1.451 1.3945 1.2975 1.471
1988 0.24317 0.28278 0.19443 0.3613
1988.25 1.047 1.0181 0.93788 1.1147
1988.5 0.27109 0.30284 0.19253 0.38182
1988.75 1.103 1.1026 0.97049 1.1903
1989 0.65354 0.65089 0.53772 0.76715
1989.25 0.52817 0.53513 0.42558 0.61353
1989.5 0.56219 0.53604 0.41755 0.63577
1989.75 -0.0045066 0.01865 -0.081809 0.11906
1990 0.23902 0.24481 0.16816 0.35276
1990.25 0.18709 0.17671 0.050141 0.26875
1990.5 -0.23229 -0.23776 -0.33048 -0.14034
1990.75 -1.1512 -1.1333 -1.2243 -1.0311
1991 -0.69837 -0.67199 -0.78706 -0.59456
1991.25 0.47089 0.46609 0.34239 0.53564
1991.5 0.17692 0.16905 0.04864 0.25358
1991.75 0.11455 0.1264 0.028268 0.23414
1992 0.87074 0.82926 0.74887 0.91544
1992.25 0.83222 0.8465 0.74695 0.90621
1992.5 0.7584 0.7248 0.63528 0.82447
1992.75 0.73968 0.71957 0.62226 0.84041
1993 -0.068619 -0.037198 -0.13346 0.043363
1993.25 0.40665 0.37251 0.30489 0.49269
1993.5 0.26128 0.25428 0.16724 0.38195
1993.75 1.0293 1.0031 0.93264 1.1162
1994 0.73216 0.76244 0.64114 0.84656
1994.25 1.1362 1.1141 1.0045 1.2287
1994.5 0.37331 0.37977 0.28949 0.48378
1994.75 0.82517 0.82222 0.73497 0.91863
1995 0.10327 0.14866 0.042467 0.23344
1995.25 0.0059067 0.02542 -0.063815 0.12032
1995.5 0.57901 0.57905 0.46937 0.67694
1995.75 0.42064 0.39698 0.29547 0.51595
1996 0.47065 0.48184 0.3728 0.55788
1996.25 1.4623 1.4303 1.3376 1.528
1996.5 0.58184 0.61198 0.52179 0.70807
1996.75 0.784 0.79278 0.68548 0.89425
1997 0.301 0.32228 0.21535 0.39598
1997.25 1.2552 1.2196 1.1303 1.3445
1997.5 0.9852 1.0061 0.90842 1.0998
1997.75 0.48498 0.50377 0.40951 0.59223
1998 0.71523 0.70248 0.6266 0.79726
1998.25 0.64625 0.69117 0.59591 0.75289
1998.5 1.0292 1.0436 0.91277 1.1078
1998.75 1.417 1.4119 1.3297 1.4979
1999 0.50987 0.53126 0.42687 0.64131
1999.25 0.51028 0.53355 0.43782 0.62635
1999.5 0.96952 0.98177 0.85739 1.0861
1999.75 1.4839 1.432 1.3462 1.4955
2000 -1.1312 -1.0145 -1.0938 -0.90556
2000.25 1.6221 1.5431 1.46 1.6408
2000.5 -0.23405 -0.20073 -0.28176 -0.12028
2000.75 0.2901 0.30838 0.20198 0.36645
2001 -0.58202 -0.52114 -0.64925 -0.43355
2001.25 0.35641 0.32991 0.23647 0.43001
2001.5 -0.59482 -0.57189 -0.67415 -0.48267
2001.75 0.029103 0.036085 -0.065831 0.13015
2002 0.59528 0.58789 0.48285 0.64787
2002.25 0.28162 0.2981 0.23346 0.35035
2002.5 0.20094 0.18732 0.10562 0.2814
2002.75 -0.27482 -0.25345 -0.34925 -0.13831
2003 -0.29816 -0.28081 -0.36577 -0.19437
2003.25 0.54192 0.52061 0.44094 0.63638
2003.5 1.2984 1.2581 1.1788 1.3386
2003.75 0.55647 0.61863 0.50786 0.69666
2004 0.62057 0.61383 0.51476 0.6974
2004.25 0.36451 0.35498 0.25719 0.44987
2004.5 0.42518 0.39514 0.31246 0.49999
2004.75 0.48524 0.47911 0.40764 0.59142
2005 0.75054 0.73703 0.64756 0.80091
2005.25 0.16186 0.15436 0.041845 0.25971
2005.5 0.45987 0.44217 0.35439 0.545
2005.75 0.17122 0.18092 0.078415 0.28958
2006 1.005 0.99301 0.90392 1.0821
2006.25 0.11142 0.1092 0.021848 0.22426
2006.5 -0.30724 -0.30188 -0.38359 -0.16145
2006.75 0.35918 0.35666 0.2491 0.46267
2007 -0.27369 -0.26096 -0.36306 -0.15905
2007.25 0.61778 0.59093 0.48626 0.70826
2007.5 0.41359 0.40369 0.28235 0.50867
2007.75 0.11003 0.099292 0.0058537 0.20257
2008 -0.38941 -0.39617 -0.45559 -0.30878
2008.25 0.070174 0.052148 -0.047932 0.15343
2008.5 -1.2324 -1.207 -1.3007 -1.1272
2008.75 -2.6326 -2.622 -2.7127 -2.5019
2009 -1.7622 -1.7441 -1.8529 -1.6383
2009.25 -0.40525 -0.41843 -0.522 -0.30152
2009.5 0.15106 0.16099 0.087687 0.22675
2009.75 0.6598 0.66166 0.56666 0.7517
2010 0.85612 0.86181 0.77053 0.96088
2010.25 0.71441 0.75221 0.65549 0.82547
2010.5 0.36766 0.37866 0.28159 0.46033
2010.75 0.32591 0.27885 0.21055 0.39451
2011 0.030195 0.039355 -0.068171 0.15149
2011.25 0.13725 0.10355 0.015599 0.19927
2011.5 0.21792 0.24647 0.12015 0.34147
2011.75 0.44559 0.43903 0.32746 0.52762
Return to Figure 1

Figure 1: Smoothed Estimates of Model Objects Upper Right Panel: Inflation

Dates Data Median Lower 68% CB Upper 68% CB
1983 3.2381 2.9223 2.5691 3.3451
1983.25 2.9123 3.0042 2.665 3.2855
1983.5 4.053 3.4561 3.0826 3.8188
1983.75 2.9308 3.295 2.9065 3.6774
1984 5.0473 4.0229 3.7043 4.5106
1984.25 3.4104 3.3953 3.0788 3.8912
1984.5 3.2018 3.2315 2.8173 3.5153
1984.75 2.5484 2.9318 2.6364 3.1819
1985 4.4145 3.5684 3.1782 3.7627
1985.25 2.2639 2.327 1.8626 2.8303
1985.5 1.6426 1.9397 1.7095 2.2989
1985.75 2.6091 2.4083 2.0674 2.7968
1986 2.029 2.2681 1.7959 2.5358
1986.25 2.1079 2.1013 1.8458 2.3589
1986.5 2.268 2.2034 1.9553 2.4689
1986.75 2.677 2.7704 2.4543 2.9598
1987 3.7142 3.1672 2.5995 3.7176
1987.25 2.2753 2.6266 2.162 3.218
1987.5 3.1306 2.9932 2.4732 3.3159
1987.75 3.0453 2.9044 2.6199 3.231
1988 3.2706 3.4 3.0672 3.6204
1988.25 3.7422 3.879 3.525 4.1734
1988.5 4.4912 3.8553 3.5975 4.2365
1988.75 3.0193 3.5317 3.046 3.8529
1989 4.5071 3.8498 3.4598 4.3067
1989.25 3.9154 3.6265 3.3803 3.9463
1989.5 2.6197 2.8154 2.5308 3.2036
1989.75 2.6368 3.1894 2.9545 3.4357
1990 4.8006 4.3587 4.0559 4.5733
1990.25 4.6215 4.3076 4.0394 4.6521
1990.5 3.6613 3.697 3.3857 3.987
1990.75 3.2023 3.4037 3.1637 3.6751
1991 4.2753 3.7923 3.5161 4.0915
1991.25 2.8376 3.2724 2.6029 3.4891
1991.5 3.0998 2.7691 2.5162 3.0564
1991.75 2.3145 2.1701 1.9608 2.4109
1992 2.0327 2.248 2.0001 2.4501
1992.25 2.4623 2.3827 2.1149 2.6589
1992.5 1.8538 1.924 1.6404 2.281
1992.75 2.2651 1.9655 1.7297 2.5563
1993 2.3914 2.2655 2.0893 2.4745
1993.25 2.2031 2.0529 1.8768 2.2563
1993.5 1.8394 2.1213 1.8137 2.2906
1993.75 2.1911 2.002 1.7251 2.5957
1994 2.0935 1.9866 1.6411 2.5436
1994.25 1.9019 2.1163 1.8713 2.3059
1994.5 2.3722 2.1647 1.9639 2.6329
1994.75 2.0555 2.3546 2.0177 2.6258
1995 2.2869 2.3239 2.06 2.5687
1995.25 1.7681 2.2293 1.6497 2.4736
1995.5 1.8777 2.1611 1.6548 2.3857
1995.75 2.0247 2.2243 1.6379 2.6102
1996 2.3049 2.106 1.7403 2.5398
1996.25 1.5309 1.7331 1.2324 2.2043
1996.5 1.2657 1.5994 1.339 2.0492
1996.75 2.2041 2.1236 1.599 2.4123
1997 2.5768 1.9923 1.6681 2.5813
1997.25 0.92947 1.3279 1.021 1.8107
1997.5 1.3949 1.3309 1.0165 1.7799
1997.75 1.4747 1.4428 1.2229 1.7204
1998 0.67194 1.2118 0.93489 1.5132
1998.25 0.95662 1.2223 0.92611 1.5152
1998.5 1.5287 1.4062 1.2182 1.6958
1998.75 1.2066 1.4127 1.0953 1.6982
1999 1.7777 1.9459 1.5749 2.2109
1999.25 1.4054 1.7948 1.3791 2.0874
1999.5 1.4879 1.6152 1.2799 1.9794
1999.75 1.409 2.1069 1.841 2.3409
2000 3.1716 2.224 2.0412 2.4832
2000.25 2.0222 2.5016 2.0093 2.7966
2000.5 2.4033 2.3842 2.1722 2.6349
2000.75 2.0984 2.1848 1.9432 2.4456
2001 2.7053 2.4055 2.1928 2.6669
2001.25 2.7092 2.5951 2.3134 2.8783
2001.5 1.2598 1.307 1.0584 1.9682
2001.75 1.2295 1.5301 1.2628 1.7478
2002 1.4137 1.579 1.3242 1.8011
2002.25 1.7873 1.748 1.5146 1.9195
2002.5 1.7274 1.935 1.6953 2.138
2002.75 2.293 2.3226 2.0053 2.578
2003 2.7849 2.5558 2.1462 2.7783
2003.25 1.1614 1.9247 1.5275 2.2053
2003.5 2.2195 1.9017 1.6333 2.1835
2003.75 2.0343 2.1958 1.8728 2.4462
2004 3.4653 3.1729 2.6638 3.4564
2004.25 3.3609 3.3307 2.7517 3.5657
2004.5 2.8885 3.0978 2.5592 3.3034
2004.75 2.974 2.9142 2.6761 3.2793
2005 3.6695 3.4972 3.0193 3.7725
2005.25 2.6678 3.027 2.5582 3.4657
2005.5 4.0862 3.4623 3.1182 4.0567
2005.75 3.3466 3.1383 2.7975 3.5907
2006 2.9623 3.1082 2.8841 3.4116
2006.25 3.4848 3.3475 3.1575 3.6676
2006.5 3.0038 3.261 2.9572 3.5806
2006.75 1.7777 2.7429 2.3668 3.1012
2007 4.558 3.5436 3.292 3.8413
2007.25 2.7161 2.8675 2.5358 3.1343
2007.5 1.3362 1.906 1.4073 2.2127
2007.75 1.8931 1.8863 1.6726 2.1319
2008 2.3603 2.0511 1.7786 2.7836
2008.25 2.6346 2.6445 2.1843 3.2096
2008.5 3.1638 2.9323 2.5535 3.2716
2008.75 0.50535 0.86609 0.5324 1.1399
2009 1.5232 1.0327 0.64841 1.3179
2009.25 -0.44868 0.46977 0.19574 0.68654
2009.5 0.23352 0.24361 -0.056417 0.50551
2009.75 1.0382 1.3798 0.33567 1.7218
2010 1.507 1.5029 1.2299 1.8445
2010.25 1.5736 1.3759 1.1189 1.7222
2010.5 1.3084 1.5315 1.2358 1.814
2010.75 1.7522 1.7532 1.5008 2.0979
2011 2.6924 2.1343 1.8366 2.6306
2011.25 2.5542 2.1787 1.9021 2.5489
2011.5 2.5309 1.9814 1.709 2.338
2011.75 0.38633 1.1293 0.30652 1.4816
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2007.75 1.8931 1.8863 1.6726 2.1319
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2008 2.3603 2.0511 1.7786 2.7836
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2008.25 2.6346 2.6445 2.1843 3.2096
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2008.5 3.1638 2.9323 2.5535 3.2716
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2008.75 0.50535 0.86609 0.5324 1.1399
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2009 1.5232 1.0327 0.64841 1.3179
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2009.25 -0.44868 0.46977 0.19574 0.68654
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2009.5 0.23352 0.24361 -0.056417 0.50551
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2009.75 1.0382 1.3798 0.33567 1.7218
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2010 1.507 1.5029 1.2299 1.8445
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2010.25 1.5736 1.3759 1.1189 1.7222
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2010.5 1.3084 1.5315 1.2358 1.814
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2010.75 1.7522 1.7532 1.5008 2.0979
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2011 2.6924 2.1343 1.8366 2.6306
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2011.25 2.5542 2.1787 1.9021 2.5489
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2011.5 2.5309 1.9814 1.709 2.338
(Small Additional Panel: Great Recession) 2011.75 0.38633 1.1293 0.30652 1.4816
Return to Figure 1

Figure 1: Smoothed Estimates of Model Objects Lower Left Panel: Nominal Interest Rate

Dates Data Median Lower 68% CB Upper 68% CB
1983 8.2853 8.2846 7.9063 8.5972
1983.25 8.5951 8.6345 8.288 8.9007
1983.5 9.3603 9.1954 8.9517 9.4539
1983.75 8.9982 9.1239 8.9215 9.3757
1984 9.3914 9.4382 9.1538 9.7299
1984.25 10.034 10.017 9.7305 10.287
1984.5 10.573 10.42 10.103 10.7
1984.75 9.0293 9.1682 8.943 9.4074
1985 8.3576 8.4129 8.0948 8.7366
1985.25 7.6252 7.7384 7.4466 8.0106
1985.5 7.2544 7.2867 7.0653 7.6199
1985.75 7.3059 7.1382 6.8428 7.5069
1986 7.0382 7.0265 6.8131 7.3021
1986.25 6.2569 6.2267 5.9291 6.4248
1986.5 5.6309 5.6327 5.4067 5.8309
1986.75 5.4464 5.3848 5.2016 5.694
1987 5.6411 5.6536 5.2906 6
1987.25 5.754 5.8312 5.544 6.0689
1987.5 6.1542 6.0746 5.8242 6.3128
1987.75 5.9797 5.8677 5.6819 6.2077
1988 5.8258 6.0082 5.7753 6.2296
1988.25 6.3391 6.4708 6.2171 6.7353
1988.5 7.1617 7.0994 6.8644 7.3561
1988.75 7.8933 7.9983 7.6093 8.2699
1989 8.7398 8.5208 8.2596 8.7662
1989.25 8.5848 8.5808 8.3375 8.8717
1989.5 8.017 8.0111 7.7841 8.3556
1989.75 7.8108 7.8457 7.6934 8.0562
1990 7.9242 7.9316 7.6731 8.1359
1990.25 7.9139 7.9107 7.6178 8.1446
1990.5 7.6355 7.6056 7.404 7.934
1990.75 7.1309 6.9962 6.7789 7.2636
1991 6.1439 6.1897 5.975 6.4116
1991.25 5.6617 5.8309 5.3401 6.0814
1991.5 5.4771 5.4227 5.1965 5.6416
1991.75 4.6272 4.6213 4.3777 4.8382
1992 3.9629 4.0094 3.8184 4.2846
1992.25 3.7383 3.8218 3.6015 4.0252
1992.5 3.1264 3.1453 2.8706 3.4458
1992.75 3.1162 3.0405 2.8184 3.3069
1993 3.0041 3.0611 2.8977 3.2971
1993.25 3.0143 3.0166 2.752 3.2323
1993.5 3.0449 3.0633 2.84 3.2748
1993.75 3.106 2.9901 2.7822 3.3844
1994 3.3099 3.3879 3.0648 3.7368
1994.25 4.065 4.0399 3.8111 4.2795
1994.5 4.5556 4.5066 4.2418 4.7495
1994.75 5.3746 5.3148 5.1299 5.651
1995 5.8463 5.8074 5.5564 6.0457
1995.25 5.6924 5.7625 5.4346 5.9804
1995.5 5.4669 5.5036 5.248 5.778
1995.75 5.3541 5.3448 5.0245 5.5857
1996 5.0161 4.9684 4.6686 5.361
1996.25 5.1083 5.078 4.7604 5.3432
1996.5 5.1902 5.1904 4.9025 5.4738
1996.75 5.0571 5.1404 4.7988 5.4029
1997 5.1492 5.0728 4.7566 5.4158
1997.25 5.139 5.0915 4.8978 5.3559
1997.5 5.139 5.1414 4.8442 5.4193
1997.75 5.18 5.1132 4.9144 5.4041
1998 5.139 5.1419 4.8777 5.4497
1998.25 5.0571 5.0997 4.8572 5.3333
1998.5 4.9137 4.7552 4.5197 5.1373
1998.75 4.3205 4.4925 4.2511 4.7194
1999 4.484 4.4513 4.225 4.7395
1999.25 4.5249 4.5828 4.2933 4.8156
1999.5 4.7295 4.7161 4.4248 5.0308
1999.75 5.139 5.2507 4.969 5.4269
2000 5.6309 5.3359 5.1282 5.6032
2000.25 5.8155 5.8424 5.469 6.1253
2000.5 6.1337 6.0617 5.8331 6.248
2000.75 6.1337 5.89 5.6768 6.2513
2001 4.8933 4.8067 4.5903 5.0492
2001.25 3.7179 3.9117 3.6595 4.2134
2001.5 3.2589 3.0755 2.8575 3.4241
2001.75 1.9359 2.0692 1.8746 2.3038
2002 1.7429 1.7071 1.4725 1.9431
2002.25 1.7429 1.7244 1.4851 1.8772
2002.5 1.6617 1.5715 1.3009 1.7733
2002.75 1.3572 1.3803 1.1631 1.5843
2003 1.1645 1.1907 0.89601 1.432
2003.25 1.0529 1.1279 0.86365 1.4687
2003.5 0.94144 0.88595 0.66999 1.1503
2003.75 0.93131 0.97328 0.64511 1.2282
2004 0.93131 1.0277 0.63777 1.3647
2004.25 1.0935 1.1828 0.85236 1.5755
2004.5 1.5094 1.7115 1.2724 1.9273
2004.75 2.0375 2.0195 1.7905 2.1992
2005 2.5765 2.5663 2.2572 2.7909
2005.25 2.9125 2.9083 2.5751 3.295
2005.5 3.4118 3.3184 3.037 3.5676
2005.75 3.8914 3.7782 3.4746 4.1082
2006 4.4738 4.4781 4.2414 4.727
2006.25 4.7909 4.7927 4.5366 5.0328
2006.5 4.9956 5.0808 4.8197 5.3379
2006.75 4.9854 5.1059 4.7942 5.3516
2007 5.0673 4.9229 4.7001 5.1069
2007.25 4.8216 4.9257 4.6194 5.1037
2007.5 4.3818 4.4826 4.1864 4.7029
2007.75 3.4628 3.4342 3.1715 3.6385
2008 2.0883 2.0565 1.7989 2.4352
2008.25 1.6414 1.6022 1.2094 2.023
2008.5 1.5195 1.4264 1.1167 1.6466
2008.75 0.31357 0 0 0
2009 0.21239 0 0 0
2009.25 0.17193 0 0 0
2009.5 0.16181 0 0 0
2009.75 0.060671 0 0 0
2010 0.11124 0 0 0
2010.25 0.1517 0 0 0
2010.5 0.1517 0 0 0
2010.75 0.14158 0 0 0
2011 0.13147 0 0 0
2011.25 0.050559 0 0 0
2011.5 0.030334 0 0 0
2011.75 0.010111 0 0 0.02749
Return to Figure 1

Figure 1: Smoothed Estimates of Model Objects Lower Right Panel: Notional Interest Rate

Dates Data Median Lower 68% CB Upper 68% CB
1983 8.2853 8.2846 7.9063 8.5972
1983.25 8.5951 8.6345 8.288 8.9007
1983.5 9.3603 9.1954 8.9517 9.4539
1983.75 8.9982 9.1239 8.9215 9.3757
1984 9.3914 9.4382 9.1538 9.7299
1984.25 10.034 10.017 9.7305 10.287
1984.5 10.573 10.42 10.103 10.7
1984.75 9.0293 9.1682 8.943 9.4074
1985 8.3576 8.4129 8.0948 8.7366
1985.25 7.6252 7.7384 7.4466 8.0106
1985.5 7.2544 7.2867 7.0653 7.6199
1985.75 7.3059 7.1382 6.8428 7.5069
1986 7.0382 7.0265 6.8131 7.3021
1986.25 6.2569 6.2267 5.9291 6.4248
1986.5 5.6309 5.6327 5.4067 5.8309
1986.75 5.4464 5.3848 5.2016 5.694
1987 5.6411 5.6536 5.2906 6
1987.25 5.754 5.8312 5.544 6.0689
1987.5 6.1542 6.0746 5.8242 6.3128
1987.75 5.9797 5.8677 5.6819 6.2077
1988 5.8258 6.0082 5.7753 6.2296
1988.25 6.3391 6.4708 6.2171 6.7353
1988.5 7.1617 7.0994 6.8644 7.3561
1988.75 7.8933 7.9983 7.6093 8.2699
1989 8.7398 8.5208 8.2596 8.7662
1989.25 8.5848 8.5808 8.3375 8.8717
1989.5 8.017 8.0111 7.7841 8.3556
1989.75 7.8108 7.8457 7.6934 8.0562
1990 7.9242 7.9316 7.6731 8.1359
1990.25 7.9139 7.9107 7.6178 8.1446
1990.5 7.6355 7.6056 7.404 7.934
1990.75 7.1309 6.9962 6.7789 7.2636
1991 6.1439 6.1897 5.975 6.4116
1991.25 5.6617 5.8309 5.3401 6.0814
1991.5 5.4771 5.4227 5.1965 5.6416
1991.75 4.6272 4.6213 4.3777 4.8382
1992 3.9629 4.0094 3.8184 4.2846
1992.25 3.7383 3.8218 3.6015 4.0252
1992.5 3.1264 3.1453 2.8706 3.4458
1992.75 3.1162 3.0405 2.8184 3.3069
1993 3.0041 3.0611 2.8977 3.2971
1993.25 3.0143 3.0166 2.752 3.2323
1993.5 3.0449 3.0633 2.84 3.2748
1993.75 3.106 2.9901 2.7822 3.3844
1994 3.3099 3.3879 3.0648 3.7368
1994.25 4.065 4.0399 3.8111 4.2795
1994.5 4.5556 4.5066 4.2418 4.7495
1994.75 5.3746 5.3148 5.1299 5.651
1995 5.8463 5.8074 5.5564 6.0457
1995.25 5.6924 5.7625 5.4346 5.9804
1995.5 5.4669 5.5036 5.248 5.778
1995.75 5.3541 5.3448 5.0245 5.5857
1996 5.0161 4.9684 4.6686 5.361
1996.25 5.1083 5.078 4.7604 5.3432
1996.5 5.1902 5.1904 4.9025 5.4738
1996.75 5.0571 5.1404 4.7988 5.4029
1997 5.1492 5.0728 4.7566 5.4158
1997.25 5.139 5.0915 4.8978 5.3559
1997.5 5.139 5.1414 4.8442 5.4193
1997.75 5.18 5.1132 4.9144 5.4041
1998 5.139 5.1419 4.8777 5.4497
1998.25 5.0571 5.0997 4.8572 5.3333
1998.5 4.9137 4.7552 4.5197 5.1373
1998.75 4.3205 4.4925 4.2511 4.7194
1999 4.484 4.4513 4.225 4.7395
1999.25 4.5249 4.5828 4.2933 4.8156
1999.5 4.7295 4.7161 4.4248 5.0308
1999.75 5.139 5.2507 4.969 5.4269
2000 5.6309 5.3359 5.1282 5.6032
2000.25 5.8155 5.8424 5.469 6.1253
2000.5 6.1337 6.0617 5.8331 6.248
2000.75 6.1337 5.89 5.6768 6.2513
2001 4.8933 4.8067 4.5903 5.0492
2001.25 3.7179 3.9117 3.6595 4.2134
2001.5 3.2589 3.0755 2.8575 3.4241
2001.75 1.9359 2.0692 1.8746 2.3038
2002 1.7429 1.7071 1.4725 1.9431
2002.25 1.7429 1.7244 1.4851 1.8772
2002.5 1.6617 1.5715 1.3009 1.7733
2002.75 1.3572 1.3803 1.1631 1.5843
2003 1.1645 1.1907 0.89601 1.432
2003.25 1.0529 1.1279 0.86365 1.4687
2003.5 0.94144 0.88595 0.66999 1.1503
2003.75 0.93131 0.97328 0.64511 1.2282
2004 0.93131 1.0277 0.63777 1.3647
2004.25 1.0935 1.1828 0.85236 1.5755
2004.5 1.5094 1.7115 1.2724 1.9273
2004.75 2.0375 2.0195 1.7905 2.1992
2005 2.5765 2.5663 2.2572 2.7909
2005.25 2.9125 2.9083 2.5751 3.295
2005.5 3.4118 3.3184 3.037 3.5676
2005.75 3.8914 3.7782 3.4746 4.1082
2006 4.4738 4.4781 4.2414 4.727
2006.25 4.7909 4.7927 4.5366 5.0328
2006.5 4.9956 5.0808 4.8197 5.3379
2006.75 4.9854 5.1059 4.7942 5.3516
2007 5.0673 4.9229 4.7001 5.1069
2007.25 4.8216 4.9257 4.6194 5.1037
2007.5 4.3818 4.4826 4.1864 4.7029
2007.75 3.4628 3.4342 3.1715 3.6385
2008 2.0883 2.0565 1.7989 2.4352
2008.25 1.6414 1.6022 1.2094 2.023
2008.5 1.5195 1.4264 1.1167 1.6466
2008.75 0.31357 -1.7431 -2.5876 -0.7632
2009 0.21239 -3.1686 -4.4429 -2.1944
2009.25 0.17193 -3.3952 -4.4176 -2.4844
2009.5 0.16181 -3.2202 -4.2798 -2.2379
2009.75 0.060671 -2.354 -3.9503 -1.0406
2010 0.11124 -1.5507 -2.4083 -0.6086
2010.25 0.1517 -0.9103 -1.6634 -0.18345
2010.5 0.1517 -0.93507 -1.4133 -0.16721
2010.75 0.14158 -1.0619 -1.7888 -0.33823
2011 0.13147 -1.1519 -2.1152 -0.39591
2011.25 0.050559 -1.2745 -2.009 -0.24688
2011.5 0.030334 -1.0216 -1.7996 -0.13533
2011.75 0.010111 -0.53208 -2.1101 0.02749
Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: The Dynamic Paths of Alternative Initial Conditions Top Left Panel: Nominal Rate

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 4.4701 0
2 4.8547 0
3 4.9855 0
4 5.0363 0
5 5.0502 0.086422
6 5.0429 0.79195
7 5.0318 1.35
8 5.0139 1.8189
9 4.9956 2.1938
10 4.9785 2.536
11 4.9514 2.8052
12 4.9342 3.0413
Return to Figure 2

Figure 2: The Dynamic Paths of Alternative Initial Conditions Top Right Panel: Notional Rate

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 4.4701 -3.5054
2 4.8547 -2.8636
3 4.9855 -1.7973
4 5.0363 -0.78994
5 5.0502 0.086422
6 5.0429 0.79195
7 5.0318 1.35
8 5.0139 1.8189
9 4.9956 2.1938
10 4.9785 2.536
11 4.9514 2.8052
12 4.9342 3.0413
Return to Figure 2

Figure 2: The Dynamic Paths of Alternative Initial Conditions Left Column Second Row Panel: Output Growth

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 2.118 -4.0681
2 0.84205 -0.0095434
3 0.83405 1.7992
4 0.93749 2.1911
5 1.0661 2.1358
6 1.2127 2.0345
7 1.328 1.9113
8 1.4018 1.8358
9 1.4859 1.7885
10 1.5151 1.7381
11 1.5472 1.6966
12 1.5717 1.6844
Return to Figure 2

Figure 2: The Dynamic Paths of Alternative Initial Conditions Right Column Second Row Panel: Inflation Rate

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 3.5143 1.2767
2 3.2233 1.4356
3 3.0757 1.926
4 2.9477 2.1346
5 2.8606 2.2657
6 2.7971 2.357
7 2.7449 2.4152
8 2.7082 2.454
9 2.682 2.484
10 2.6624 2.5072
11 2.6508 2.5256
12 2.6428 2.5352
Return to Figure 2

Figure 2: The Dynamic Paths of Alternative Initial Conditions Left Column Third Row Panel: Technology Shock

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 1.5027 0.50092
2 0.00059409 0.00059409
3 0.0006542 0.0006542
4 0.0018784 0.0018784
5 -0.0017262 -0.0017262
6 -6.71E-05 -6.71E-05
7 -0.00082751 -0.00082751
8 0.0018414 0.0018414
9 -0.00073234 -0.00073234
10 -0.001093 -0.001093
11 -0.0017542 -0.0017542
12 0.0010139 0.0010139
Return to Figure 2

Figure 2: The Dynamic Paths of Alternative Initial Conditions Right Column Third Row Panel: Discount Rate Shock

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 0.16115 -1.4503
2 0.14265 -1.2822
3 0.12593 -1.1337
4 0.11122 -1.0023
5 0.098583 -0.88606
6 0.087038 -0.78342
7 0.076724 -0.69293
8 0.067725 -0.61252
9 0.059532 -0.54203
10 0.052567 -0.47906
11 0.046361 -0.42367
12 0.04093 -0.3746
Return to Figure 2

Figure 2: The Dynamic Paths of Alternative Initial Conditions

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 -0.078966 0.078966
2 0.0003394 0.0003394
3 -0.0001295 -0.0001295
4 0.00058009 0.00058009
5 0.00030892 0.00030892
6 5.75E-05 5.75E-05
7 0.00023311 0.00023311
8 7.17E-05 7.17E-05
9 0.00017246 0.00017246
10 0.00012382 0.00012382
11 0.000202 0.000202
12 0.00025759 0.00025759
Return to Figure 2

Figure 2: The Dynamic Paths of Alternative Initial Conditions Right Column Third Row Panel: Slop of Philips Curve

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 0.053311 0.052717
2 0.053212 0.052747
3 0.053152 0.053006
4 0.053117 0.053039
5 0.053094 0.053056
6 0.053079 0.053064
7 0.053066 0.053063
8 0.053058 0.05306
9 0.053052 0.053059
10 0.053047 0.053057
11 0.053045 0.053054
12 0.053044 0.053053
Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: The Effects of a Discount Rate Shock Column 1 Row 1: Nominal Rate

Quarters 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 0.72577 0
2 0.88514 0
3 0.92279 0
4 0.86629 0.56613
5 0.78712 1.1633
6 0.70925 0.98266
7 0.63639 0.83363
8 0.56718 0.70107
9 0.5055 0.59564
10 0.45564 0.51643
11 0.40342 0.44873
12 0.35747 0.39288
Return to Figure 3

Figure 3: The Effects of a Discount Rate Shock Column 2 Row 1: Notional Rate

Quarters 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 0.72577 1.571
2 0.88514 1.9183
3 0.92279 1.7532
4 0.86629 1.4919
5 0.78712 1.197
6 0.70925 0.98266
7 0.63639 0.83363
8 0.56718 0.70107
9 0.5055 0.59564
10 0.45564 0.51643
11 0.40342 0.44873
12 0.35747 0.39288
Return to Figure 3

Figure 3: The Effects of a Discount Rate Shock Column 1 Row 2: Output

Quarters 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 0.37404 0.86995
2 0.41574 1.1106
3 0.35834 0.96538
4 0.275 0.73884
5 0.21459 0.53704
6 0.16578 0.3896
7 0.1265 0.2803
8 0.094004 0.19809
9 0.073986 0.14457
10 0.056643 0.10804
11 0.04181 0.076246
12 0.031449 0.051391
Return to Figure 3

Figure 3: The Effects of a Discount Rate Shock Column 1 Row 2: Inflation

Quarters 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 0.45931 1.3147
2 0.37549 1.1573
3 0.24214 0.6793
4 0.18606 0.49717
5 0.14002 0.35304
6 0.10952 0.25272
7 0.086079 0.18068
8 0.067918 0.13324
9 0.054506 0.09957
10 0.042589 0.072074
11 0.035426 0.05448
12 0.028957 0.041623
Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: The Effects of a Productivity Shock Column 1 Row 1: Nominal Rate

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 0.09165 0
2 0.11267 0
3 0.093322 0
4 0.072086 0
5 0.054291 0.036894
6 0.039737 0.04781
7 0.029987 0.037197
8 0.020906 0.025518
9 0.016058 0.017213
10 0.013348 0.016426
11 0.0098849 0.0096038
12 0.0056186 0.0077452
Return to Figure 4

Figure 4: The Effects of a Productivity Shock Column 2 Row 1: Notional Rate

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 0.09165 0.19894
2 0.11267 0.18896
3 0.093322 0.14872
4 0.072086 0.10355
5 0.054291 0.070606
6 0.039737 0.04781
7 0.029987 0.037197
8 0.020906 0.025518
9 0.016058 0.017213
10 0.013348 0.016426
11 0.0098849 0.0096038
12 0.0056186 0.0077452
Return to Figure 4

Figure 4: The Effects of a Productivity Shock Column 1 Row 2: Output

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 0.32906 0.4248
2 0.53289 0.61362
3 0.66897 0.75296
4 0.7626 0.82143
5 0.82815 0.86864
6 0.87683 0.90665
7 0.91016 0.93185
8 0.93204 0.94587
9 0.95156 0.96381
10 0.96636 0.97588
11 0.97425 0.98127
12 0.98064 0.98162
Return to Figure 4

Figure 4: The Effects of a Productivity Shock Column 2 Row 2: Inflation

Quarter 2006:Q1 Baseline 2009:Q2 Baseline
1 -0.30969 -0.2295
2 -0.23373 -0.15999
3 -0.17257 -0.13103
4 -0.12514 -0.09574
5 -0.093967 -0.074146
6 -0.068703 -0.054194
7 -0.049828 -0.041698
8 -0.037145 -0.029332
9 -0.027053 -0.018954
10 -0.020187 -0.015135
11 -0.014173 -0.011889
12 -0.010114 -0.0089605
Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: The Path of the Estimated Shocks Top Panel: Discount Rate Shock Full sample: 1983-2011

Dates Median Lower 68%CB Upper 68% CB
1983 0.97516 1.1597 0.79725
1983.25 1.171 1.3838 1.0559
1983.5 1.4073 1.5602 1.2269
1983.75 1.3805 1.5374 1.1855
1984 1.5379 1.8033 1.3598
1984.25 1.525 1.7901 1.3686
1984.5 1.4792 1.6065 1.3542
1984.75 1.1105 1.2331 0.97692
1985 1.1096 1.234 0.96426
1985.25 0.69051 0.83195 0.47504
1985.5 0.5103 0.76214 0.45617
1985.75 0.49418 0.62208 0.449
1986 0.47745 0.52378 0.41326
1986.25 0.16272 0.17813 0.14923
1986.5 0.16129 0.17671 0.14879
1986.75 0.16129 0.17813 0.14821
1987 0.38025 0.49917 0.1552
1987.25 0.38025 0.49446 0.1581
1987.5 0.46248 0.51672 0.17548
1987.75 0.48888 0.5438 0.44463
1988 0.47591 0.52095 0.41923
1988.25 0.79564 0.87297 0.6978
1988.5 0.82577 0.95622 0.75234
1988.75 1.0801 1.2089 0.85874
1989 1.1634 1.3635 1.0533
1989.25 1.1361 1.2495 1.044
1989.5 0.8218 0.92366 0.75224
1989.75 0.80333 0.88082 0.74105
1990 1.1139 1.2331 0.97692
1990.25 1.1105 1.2331 0.97035
1990.5 0.8218 0.91692 0.74751
1990.75 0.482 0.52849 0.44463
1991 0.47531 0.51998 0.41326
1991.25 0.44886 0.51274 0.16299
1991.5 0.16272 0.1785 0.14914
1991.75 -0.16129 -0.14821 -0.17616
1992 -0.16211 -0.14879 -0.17754
1992.25 -0.16344 -0.14976 -0.18127
1992.5 -0.47216 -0.40319 -0.51619
1992.75 -0.47269 -0.17887 -0.5167
1993 -0.48491 -0.44636 -0.53014
1993.25 -0.48633 -0.44636 -0.53209
1993.5 -0.48633 -0.44741 -0.53209
1993.75 -0.45199 -0.16454 -0.50623
1994 -0.44105 -0.16286 -0.49834
1994.25 -0.16067 -0.14684 -0.17671
1994.5 -0.15851 -0.1372 -0.17266
1994.75 0.15992 0.17459 0.14452
1995 0.15964 0.17605 0.14184
1995.25 0.15086 0.16862 -0.15956
1995.5 0.15342 0.16915 -0.15847
1995.75 0.14779 0.16828 -0.16436
1996 -0.14967 0.16361 -0.16916
1996.25 0.14593 0.16663 -0.16813
1996.5 -0.1543 0.15338 -0.17223
1996.75 0.14183 0.16867 -0.16415
1997 -0.14967 0.16394 -0.17206
1997.25 -0.15486 0.14921 -0.17206
1997.5 -0.15756 0.13806 -0.17605
1997.75 -0.16067 -0.14684 -0.17671
1998 -0.16296 -0.14879 -0.18275
1998.25 -0.16315 -0.14949 -0.18275
1998.5 -0.16067 -0.14684 -0.17616
1998.75 -0.16277 -0.14879 -0.1785
1999 -0.16344 -0.14906 -0.18218
1999.25 -0.16369 -0.14906 -0.20357
1999.5 -0.15992 -0.13961 -0.17613
1999.75 0.16067 0.17616 0.14684
2000 -0.15964 -0.14452 -0.17605
2000.25 0.45283 0.51493 0.16006
2000.5 0.16272 0.1785 0.14923
2000.75 0.16164 0.17754 0.14821
2001 -0.16129 -0.14821 -0.17616
2001.25 -0.16296 -0.14879 -0.17968
2001.5 -0.77429 -0.5268 -0.86196
2001.75 -0.8148 -0.74747 -0.89066
2002 -0.81362 -0.74747 -0.88682
2002.25 -0.81054 -0.74568 -0.88682
2002.5 -0.81054 -0.74568 -0.88682
2002.75 -0.81362 -0.74747 -0.88682
2003 -0.81362 -0.74747 -0.88682
2003.25 -0.82904 -0.7536 -0.98026
2003.5 -0.80333 -0.73565 -0.88082
2003.75 -0.8148 -0.74747 -0.88772
2004 -0.55108 -0.47853 -0.7942
2004.25 -0.5333 -0.47242 -0.77809
2004.5 -0.50573 -0.45254 -0.72813
2004.75 -0.48491 -0.44463 -0.53263
2005 -0.16886 -0.15207 -0.44674
2005.25 -0.29117 -0.1581 -0.49826
2005.5 -0.1543 0.14999 -0.17266
2005.75 -0.15376 0.15786 -0.17266
2006 0.16129 0.17616 0.14879
2006.25 0.16067 0.17605 0.14821
2006.5 0.15851 0.17459 0.13961
2006.75 0.15844 0.17365 0.13396
2007 0.16164 0.17671 0.14879
2007.25 0.15992 0.17605 0.13961
2007.5 -0.16581 -0.14976 -0.46059
2007.75 -0.48491 -0.44052 -0.53209
2008 -0.76693 -0.52702 -0.85411
2008.25 -0.69639 -0.47876 -0.82774
2008.5 -0.80333 -0.73565 -0.88772
2008.75 -1.4645 -1.3455 -1.6392
2009 -1.459 -1.3422 -1.6392
2009.25 -1.4666 -1.3455 -1.6622
2009.5 -1.4645 -1.3455 -1.642
2009.75 -1.2444 -1.0728 -1.5169
2010 -1.1441 -1.0465 -1.2689
2010.25 -1.1348 -1.0465 -1.2415
2010.5 -1.1391 -1.0465 -1.2428
2010.75 -1.1247 -1.0256 -1.2323
2011 -1.108 -0.91208 -1.2156
2011.25 -1.1096 -0.95426 -1.2156
2011.5 -1.109 -0.95426 -1.2133
2011.75 -1.177 -1.055 -1.4374
Recession sample: 2007-2011 Sub-panel: Discount Rate Shock      
Dates Median Lower 68%CB Upper 68% CB
2007.75 -0.48491 -0.44052 -0.53209
2008 -0.76693 -0.52702 -0.85411
2008.25 -0.69639 -0.47876 -0.82774
2008.5 -0.80333 -0.73565 -0.88772
2008.75 -1.4645 -1.3455 -1.6392
2009 -1.459 -1.3422 -1.6392
2009.25 -1.4666 -1.3455 -1.6622
2009.5 -1.4645 -1.3455 -1.642
2009.75 -1.2444 -1.0728 -1.5169
2010 -1.1441 -1.0465 -1.2689
2010.25 -1.1348 -1.0465 -1.2415
2010.5 -1.1391 -1.0465 -1.2428
2010.75 -1.1247 -1.0256 -1.2323
2011 -1.108 -0.91208 -1.2156
2011.25 -1.1096 -0.95426 -1.2156
2011.5 -1.109 -0.95426 -1.2133
2011.75 -1.177 -1.055 -1.4374
Return to Figure 5

Figure 5: The Path of the Estimated Shocks Full sample: 1983-2011 Middle Panel: Technology Shock

Dates Median Lower 68%CB Upper 68% CB
1983 0.0053519 -0.0046532 0.016033
1983.25 0.021947 0.014464 0.027314
1983.5 0.004874 -0.0051614 0.014095
1983.75 0.014996 0.012574 0.020395
1984 -0.0047043 -0.0077342 0.0051802
1984.25 0.017323 0.01429 0.024621
1984.5 -0.0040252 -0.005192 0.0055595
1984.75 0.0048272 -0.0048922 0.0061111
1985 -0.0048652 -0.0060604 -0.0023286
1985.25 0.015848 0.012623 0.024934
1985.5 0.016079 0.013711 0.024728
1985.75 -0.013656 -0.016429 -0.0046842
1986 0.0047453 -0.0049075 0.014325
1986.25 -0.0049042 -0.0066442 0.0045747
1986.5 0.0049487 0.0041913 0.0060604
1986.75 -0.013958 -0.016495 -0.0049013
1987 -0.0056801 -0.015886 -0.0044398
1987.25 0.01476 0.0051414 0.018925
1987.5 -0.0041964 -0.012115 0.0050442
1987.75 0.014996 0.0052566 0.023988
1988 -0.014837 -0.020198 -0.011912
1988.25 0.0049457 0.0027824 0.011841
1988.5 -0.0052255 -0.01471 -0.0044176
1988.75 0.016506 0.013769 0.02622
1989 -0.0052552 -0.015361 0.0045747
1989.25 0.00489 -0.0048913 0.013002
1989.5 0.013609 0.004858 0.017046
1989.75 -0.014305 -0.016931 -0.0049124
1990 -0.015506 -0.022931 -0.013159
1990.25 -0.0047715 -0.0056776 0.0048527
1990.5 0.0041489 -0.0053995 0.0054628
1990.75 -0.0185 -0.024565 -0.013665
1991 -0.014236 -0.018278 -0.0051606
1991.25 0.015629 0.013769 0.025985
1991.5 0.003651 -0.0056844 0.0053819
1991.75 0.0049154 0.0037287 0.0060604
1992 0.0057105 0.0046763 0.014665
1992.25 0.0047043 -0.0048454 0.0056697
1992.5 0.005502 0.0044019 0.014478
1992.75 0.0046121 -0.0049871 0.0056437
1993 -0.01441 -0.016497 -0.0054999
1993.25 0.0049457 0.0044398 0.0059389
1993.5 -0.0047685 -0.0054836 0.0049246
1993.75 0.013784 0.0049394 0.016731
1994 0.0046746 -0.0049871 0.0053647
1994.25 0.0057351 0.0045756 0.016396
1994.5 -0.0052538 -0.015063 -0.0044904
1994.75 0.0050452 0.0043862 0.01472
1995 -0.0052826 -0.014767 -0.004548
1995.25 -0.0047483 -0.0055771 0.0048259
1995.5 0.0051208 0.0044249 0.014558
1995.75 -0.0047833 -0.0056441 0.0048263
1996 0.0043895 -0.0053065 0.0057752
1996.25 0.02337 0.014698 0.02787
1996.5 -0.0048037 -0.0058163 0.0048361
1996.75 0.0042827 -0.005309 0.0052441
1997 -0.0049432 -0.013563 0.0039905
1997.25 0.024093 0.015949 0.028865
1997.5 0.004874 -0.0045742 0.0066458
1997.75 -0.0048281 -0.0057569 0.004363
1998 0.0053495 0.0045595 0.014393
1998.25 0.0048177 -0.0045696 0.0055086
1998.5 0.0049877 0.0041913 0.011872
1998.75 0.01441 0.0052902 0.017177
1999 -0.013758 -0.016082 -0.0046747
1999.25 0.0048177 -0.0047256 0.0055819
1999.5 0.012606 0.0048162 0.016601
1999.75 0.0053675 0.0045702 0.014713
2000 -0.034365 -0.039506 -0.030703
2000.25 0.027134 0.021931 0.036325
2000.5 -0.016729 -0.025969 -0.013727
2000.75 0.0049987 0.0041913 0.0066147
2001 -0.017677 -0.025173 -0.014311
2001.25 0.004895 -0.0045792 0.0061111
2001.5 -0.0047274 -0.0063511 0.0048259
2001.75 -0.0043708 -0.0052746 0.0052799
2002 0.0049154 0.0042998 0.0057485
2002.25 -0.0049298 -0.0059389 -0.0044682
2002.5 -0.0049432 -0.0059389 -0.0043338
2002.75 -0.014907 -0.01829 -0.013039
2003 -0.0067578 -0.014869 -0.0048406
2003.25 0.014829 0.012163 0.021155
2003.5 0.014472 0.0053548 0.017271
2003.75 -0.0049663 -0.013232 -0.0043338
2004 -0.0063492 -0.016388 -0.0045907
2004.25 -0.0048369 -0.0058163 0.0046097
2004.5 0.004874 -0.0045796 0.0059416
2004.75 0.0048034 -0.0048905 0.0056776
2005 -0.0047447 -0.0057258 0.0049468
2005.25 -0.0045533 -0.0054628 0.0051965
2005.5 -0.0049093 -0.013203 0.0047831
2005.75 0.0037754 -0.0052953 0.0055337
2006 0.014022 0.0048093 0.019854
2006.25 -0.014555 -0.017778 -0.0049507
2006.5 -0.0052695 -0.014966 -0.0044176
2006.75 0.013567 0.0045752 0.016931
2007 -0.023521 -0.027885 -0.014835
2007.25 0.016515 0.013697 0.02457
2007.5 0.012 0.0048995 0.016495
2007.75 -0.0050246 -0.013934 -0.0042709
2008 -0.015135 -0.024034 -0.012899
2008.25 -0.0050903 -0.014335 -0.0045305
2008.5 -0.031298 -0.035243 -0.022125
2008.75 -0.020268 -0.025631 -0.01422
2009 -0.014711 -0.01777 -0.0069479
2009.25 0.0050246 0.0045209 0.017177
2009.5 0.004895 0.004305 0.0055819
2009.75 -0.0048367 -0.0066442 0.004871
2010 0.0046837 -0.0055469 0.0056845
2010.25 0.0048177 -0.0045706 0.0055771
2010.5 -0.004874 -0.0056697 -0.0040462
2010.75 -0.0048834 -0.0059389 -0.0040462
2011 -0.011482 -0.016198 -0.0047912
2011.25 -0.0047416 -0.0053065 0.0048371
2011.5 0.004585 -0.0049075 0.0055168
2011.75 0.014038 0.0046802 0.023831
Recession sample: 2007-2011 Sub-panel: Technology Shock      
Dates Median Lower 68%CB Upper 68% CB
2007.75 -0.0050246 -0.013934 -0.0042709
2008 -0.015135 -0.024034 -0.012899
2008.25 -0.0050903 -0.014335 -0.0045305
2008.5 -0.031298 -0.035243 -0.022125
2008.75 -0.020268 -0.025631 -0.01422
2009 -0.014711 -0.01777 -0.0069479
2009.25 0.0050246 0.0045209 0.017177
2009.5 0.004895 0.004305 0.0055819
2009.75 -0.0048367 -0.0066442 0.004871
2010 0.0046837 -0.0055469 0.0056845
2010.25 0.0048177 -0.0045706 0.0055771
2010.5 -0.004874 -0.0056697 -0.0040462
2010.75 -0.0048834 -0.0059389 -0.0040462
2011 -0.011482 -0.016198 -0.0047912
2011.25 -0.0047416 -0.0053065 0.0048371
2011.5 0.004585 -0.0049075 0.0055168
2011.75 0.014038 0.0046802 0.023831
Return to Figure 5

Figure 5: The Path of the Estimated Shocks Full sample: 1983-2011 Bottom Panel: Monetary Policy Shock

Dates Median Lower 68%CB Upper 68% CB
1983 0.00067146 -0.0019025 0.0022405
1983.25 -0.0023669 -0.0037768 -0.0008027
1983.5 -0.0022011 -0.0026867 -0.00072928
1983.75 -0.0034055 -0.0043349 -0.0021735
1984 -0.0034957 -0.0044368 -0.0022175
1984.25 -0.00082113 -0.0023988 0.00065073
1984.5 0.00079808 -0.0007355 0.0022336
1984.75 -0.002228 -0.0026903 -0.00079898
1985 -0.0025858 -0.0039755 -0.0021094
1985.25 -0.00074257 -0.00097255 0.00079884
1985.5 -0.00080399 -0.002286 -0.00042939
1985.75 0.00076527 -0.00076691 0.0019235
1986 0.0008365 -0.00064016 0.0023725
1986.25 0.00073246 -0.00081599 0.00090993
1986.5 -0.00080399 -0.0020826 0.00070497
1986.75 -0.0006445 -0.00082062 0.0008581
1987 0.00070269 -0.00081844 0.0008856
1987.25 -0.00074496 -0.001173 0.00081599
1987.5 -0.00069915 -0.00086693 0.00084522
1987.75 -0.0028504 -0.0041434 -0.0020904
1988 -0.00075469 -0.00091168 0.00077206
1988.25 -0.0023796 -0.0035633 -0.00080419
1988.5 0.0006669 -0.00083643 0.00085427
1988.75 -0.00074362 -0.00091188 0.00077317
1989 -0.00075758 -0.0011697 0.00079884
1989.25 -0.00081796 -0.002138 0.00074955
1989.5 -0.00079566 -0.0021451 0.00073562
1989.75 0.00075469 -0.00079046 0.00091251
1990 -0.0020422 -0.0026621 -0.00075302
1990.25 -0.0020974 -0.0025556 -0.00074099
1990.5 7.28E-06 -0.00084087 0.0008581
1990.75 0.0014753 0.00075354 0.0025866
1991 -0.0008072 -0.002226 0.00072909
1991.25 -0.0021065 -0.0025405 -0.00073973
1991.5 -0.00070571 -0.00089676 0.00081844
1991.75 -0.00073571 -0.00089676 0.00081076
1992 -0.0021519 -0.0025561 -0.00076096
1992.25 -0.0008888 -0.0025405 -0.00072607
1992.5 -0.00099173 -0.0024923 -0.00074145
1992.75 -0.00077512 -0.0019568 0.00076392
1993 0.00083224 0.00071706 0.0022814
1993.25 0.00074092 -0.0007779 0.00089609
1993.5 0.00080135 -0.00065068 0.0021911
1993.75 -0.00083185 -0.0023785 -0.00066269
1994 0.00074699 -0.0007769 0.00094771
1994.25 0.00074294 -0.00080148 0.00089758
1994.5 0.0021257 0.00074902 0.0025826
1994.75 0.00092363 0.00074389 0.0025024
1995 0.0024137 0.00093988 0.0038129
1995.25 0.0022865 0.00078371 0.0026903
1995.5 0.00074496 -0.00080522 0.0021695
1995.75 0.0007782 -0.0007833 0.0021944
1996 0.0007152 -0.00085337 0.00086697
1996.25 -0.00076527 -0.0022405 0.00080584
1996.5 0.0022166 0.00072956 0.0026568
1996.75 0.00068067 -0.0008328 0.00089166
1997 0.000856 0.00064639 0.0024703
1997.25 0.0007626 -0.00076953 0.00094975
1997.5 0.00081505 -0.00070672 0.0023922
1997.75 0.0022429 0.00081997 0.0028956
1998 0.0022641 0.00074389 0.0032925
1998.25 0.0022277 0.00079872 0.0027006
1998.5 -0.00068741 -0.00088735 0.0008551
1998.75 -0.00081231 -0.002416 0.0007256
1999 0.00079318 -0.0007248 0.0023266
1999.25 0.0019715 0.00070405 0.0025053
1999.5 0.00078898 -0.00074489 0.0023086
1999.75 -0.00074496 -0.0009029 0.00077206
2000 0.0047559 0.0037441 0.0057989
2000.25 -0.0008516 -0.0023905 -0.00068416
2000.5 0.0026326 0.0021735 0.0039542
2000.75 0.00082113 0.000681 0.0023896
2001 0.0007263 -0.00082345 0.00088807
2001.25 -0.0022562 -0.0026913 -0.00075253
2001.5 0.0024041 0.00081473 0.0038477
2001.75 -0.00065718 -0.00087387 0.00086693
2002 -0.00074124 -0.00086693 0.00082153
2002.25 0.0007954 0.00064662 0.002213
2002.5 0.00075758 -0.00079084 0.00094771
2002.75 0.00077149 -0.00075605 0.00097255
2003 0.00071586 -0.00081543 0.00089659
2003.25 -0.00069632 -0.0008443 0.00085917
2003.5 -0.0024489 -0.0038477 -0.0019881
2003.75 -0.00081215 -0.0021967 0.00075051
2004 -0.0024634 -0.003714 -0.0020341
2004.25 -0.0020287 -0.0027228 -0.00074148
2004.5 -0.0007911 -0.0023337 0.00074095
2004.75 -0.00081489 -0.0023725 -0.00064639
2005 -0.002213 -0.0027017 -0.0007676
2005.25 -0.0006365 -0.00083506 0.00085478
2005.5 -0.00092879 -0.0025643 -0.00068416
2005.75 0.00069915 -0.00082302 0.0008856
2006 -0.00082112 -0.0024463 0.00069427
2006.25 -0.00067838 -0.00084719 0.00083466
2006.5 0.00085242 0.00067948 0.0024951
2006.75 0.00068067 -0.00087192 0.00085187
2007 -0.00075758 -0.0020315 0.00079654
2007.25 -0.00079671 -0.0022837 0.0007231
2007.5 0.00073571 -0.00082302 0.00087389
2007.75 -0.00076148 -0.00094771 0.00082333
2008 -0.00081435 -0.0022513 0.00073011
2008.25 -0.00086313 -0.0024691 -0.00069838
2008.5 0.0021328 0.00072984 0.0027132
2008.75 0.00080135 -0.00084659 0.0032621
2009 0.00070218 -0.00089555 0.002252
2009.25 0.00099173 -0.00075605 0.0035069
2009.5 0.00081806 -0.00095078 0.0025357
2009.75 0.00080071 -0.0022959 0.0026082
2010 -0.00074926 -0.002562 0.0022292
2010.25 0.00071874 -0.0011155 0.0021956
2010.5 -0.00070549 -0.00094835 0.0011923
2010.75 -0.00082489 -0.0025789 0.000763
2011 -0.00092502 -0.0038535 0.00076019
2011.25 -0.0021781 -0.0036607 0.00064116
2011.5 -0.0007263 -0.0022492 0.00089711
2011.75 0.00079318 -0.00082369 0.0026924
Recession sample: 2007-2011 Sub-panel: Monetary Policy Shock      
Dates Median Lower 68%CB Upper 68% CB
2007.75 -0.00076148 -0.00094771 0.00082333
2008 -0.00081435 -0.0022513 0.00073011
2008.25 -0.00086313 -0.0024691 -0.00069838
2008.5 0.0021328 0.00072984 0.0027132
2008.75 0.00080135 -0.00084659 0.0032621
2009 0.00070218 -0.00089555 0.002252
2009.25 0.00099173 -0.00075605 0.0035069
2009.5 0.00081806 -0.00095078 0.0025357
2009.75 0.00080071 -0.0022959 0.0026082
2010 -0.00074926 -0.002562 0.0022292
2010.25 0.00071874 -0.0011155 0.0021956
2010.5 -0.00070549 -0.00094835 0.0011923
2010.75 -0.00082489 -0.0025789 0.000763
2011 -0.00092502 -0.0038535 0.00076019
2011.25 -0.0021781 -0.0036607 0.00064116
2011.5 -0.0007263 -0.0022492 0.00089711
2011.75 0.00079318 -0.00082369 0.0026924
Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: The Contribution of the Estimated Shocks to the Great Recession Upper Left Panel: Output Growth

Dates Fitted Data (median) Only Beta Only Tech Only Monetary
2007.75 0.099292 0.098017 0.098017 0.098017
2008 -0.39617 0.50067 0.97991 1.8693
2008.25 0.052148 0.78317 0.1925 1.0637
2008.5 -1.207 0.55976 -0.75485 0.409
2008.75 -2.622 -0.6221 -1.0329 0.3366
2009 -1.7441 -0.047576 -1.0308 0.39915
2009.25 -0.41843 0.21706 -0.31934 0.30559
2009.5 0.16099 0.38983 0.048251 0.36787
2009.75 0.66166 0.99419 0.052506 0.41088
2010 0.86181 1.0065 0.18238 0.50243
2010.25 0.75221 0.7334 0.33041 0.4708
2010.5 0.37866 0.54283 0.20662 0.46656
2010.75 0.27885 0.53078 0.10975 0.58345
2011 0.039355 0.55774 -0.13525 0.60458
2011.25 0.10355 0.46617 -0.033495 0.60352
2011.5 0.24647 0.43915 0.16834 0.42364
2011.75 0.43903 0.11118 0.66522 0.26127
Return to Figure 6

Figure 6: The Contribution of the Estimated Shocks to the Great Recession Upper Right Panel: Inflation

Dates Fitted Data (median) Only Beta Only Tech Only Monetary
2007.75 1.8863 1.8857 1.8857 1.8857
2008 2.0511 1.8142 4.0704 3.739
2008.25 2.6445 2.2782 4.0362 3.7891
2008.5 2.9323 2.2023 4.7216 3.4523
2008.75 0.86609 0.22397 4.9581 3.3341
2009 1.0327 0.42839 4.983 3.3487
2009.25 0.46977 0.45919 4.2795 3.2298
2009.5 0.24361 0.59516 3.8795 3.2207
2009.75 1.3798 1.5703 3.803 3.2345
2010 1.5029 2.0132 3.6295 3.3501
2010.25 1.3759 2.0715 3.4489 3.3785
2010.5 1.5315 2.0489 3.5249 3.4179
2010.75 1.7532 2.1335 3.6091 3.6003
2011 2.1343 2.2692 3.8549 3.7498
2011.25 2.1787 2.2425 3.786 3.8897
2011.5 1.9814 2.2411 3.599 3.8205
2011.75 1.1293 1.7605 3.1165 3.6265
Return to Figure 6

Figure 6: The Contribution of the Estimated Shocks to the Great Recession Bottom Left Panel: Nominal Interest Rate

Dates Fitted Data (median) Only Beta Only Tech Only Monetary
2007.75 3.4342 3.4229 3.4229 3.4229
2008 2.0565 2.2704 4.9712 5.0221
2008.25 1.6022 1.9246 5.486 5.481
2008.5 1.4264 1.3428 5.5165 6.2314
2008.75 0 0 5.4587 6.4189
2009 0 0 5.4219 6.3711
2009.25 0 0 5.5552 6.5403
2009.5 0 0 5.7317 6.5167
2009.75 0 0 5.8302 6.4812
2010 0 0 5.9104 6.3062
2010.25 0 0 5.9919 6.3052
2010.5 0 0 6.0015 6.2729
2010.75 0 0.0024679 5.9816 6.0148
2011 0 0.0082211 5.9101 5.8555
2011.25 0 0.02002 5.8941 5.7143
2011.5 0 0.030029 5.9412 5.8851
2011.75 0 0.00063184 6.1007 6.175
Return to Figure 6

Figure 6: The Contribution of the Estimated Shocks to the Great Recession Bottom Right Panel: Notional Interest Rate

Dates Fitted Data (median) Only Beta Only Tech Only Monetary
2007.75 3.4342 3.4229 3.4229 3.4229
2008 2.0565 2.2704 4.9712 5.0221
2008.25 1.6022 1.9246 5.486 5.481
2008.5 1.4264 1.3428 5.5165 6.2314
2008.75 -1.7431 -1.5177 5.4587 6.4189
2009 -3.1686 -2.942 5.4219 6.3711
2009.25 -3.3952 -3.7155 5.5552 6.5403
2009.5 -3.2202 -4.0343 5.7317 6.5167
2009.75 -2.354 -3.1224 5.8302 6.4812
2010 -1.5507 -2.1989 5.9104 6.3062
2010.25 -0.9103 -1.7409 5.9919 6.3052
2010.5 -0.93507 -1.591 6.0015 6.2729
2010.75 -1.0619 -1.4418 5.9816 6.0148
2011 -1.1519 -1.2223 5.9101 5.8555
2011.25 -1.2745 -1.1535 5.8941 5.7143
2011.5 -1.0216 -1.1279 5.9412 5.8851
2011.75 -0.53208 -1.6777 6.1007 6.175
Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: The Contribution of the Lower Bound to the Great Recession Upper Left Panel: Output level

Dates Data Fitted No ZLB Counter Lower 95% CB Upper 95% CB
2008 100 100 100 100 100
2008.25 100.07 100.05 100.05 99.952 100.15
2008.5 98.845 98.845 98.845 98.712 98.981
2008.75 96.276 96.299 96.546 96.37 96.748
2009 94.595 94.631 95.251 94.923 95.556
2009.25 94.212 94.239 95.096 94.755 95.481
2009.5 94.354 94.39 95.397 95.008 95.759
2009.75 94.979 95.018 96.043 95.654 96.474
2010 95.796 95.844 96.782 96.425 97.245
2010.25 96.483 96.562 97.357 96.981 97.71
2010.5 96.838 96.926 97.614 97.22 97.955
2010.75 97.154 97.212 97.865 97.469 98.242
2011 97.183 97.253 97.911 97.457 98.314
2011.25 97.317 97.357 98.029 97.647 98.405
2011.5 97.529 97.587 98.216 97.837 98.589
2011.75 97.965 98.015 98.574 98.127 98.994
Return to Figure 7

Figure 7: The Contribution of the Lower Bound to the Great Recession Upper Right Panel: Inflation

Dates Data Fitted No ZLB Counter Lower 95% CB Upper 95% CB
2005 3.6695 3.4426 3.4426 2.6036 4.1926
2005.25 2.6678 3.0323 3.0323 2.3413 3.7754
2005.5 4.0862 3.5292 3.5292 2.9207 4.2918
2005.75 3.3466 3.1929 3.1929 2.5558 4.0059
2006 2.9623 3.1082 3.1082 2.6233 3.6154
2006.25 3.4848 3.3837 3.3837 2.8418 3.9156
2006.5 3.0038 3.217 3.217 2.2877 3.7074
2006.75 1.7777 2.7176 2.7176 1.8711 3.3461
2007 4.558 3.5491 3.5491 3.0683 4.0259
2007.25 2.7161 2.8385 2.8385 2.1408 3.4144
2007.5 1.3362 1.8399 1.8399 1.0433 2.3471
2007.75 1.8931 1.8857 1.8857 1.2875 2.5146
2008 2.3603 2.1822 2.1822 1.4678 3.1271
2008.25 2.6346 2.6917 2.6917 1.8175 3.4882
2008.5 3.1638 2.9133 2.9133 2.285 3.6644
2008.75 0.50535 0.86307 1.0453 0.43542 1.6238
2009 1.5232 1.0122 1.4142 0.65169 2.0257
2009.25 -0.44868 0.40465 0.91733 -0.18734 1.4817
2009.5 0.23352 0.24097 0.82496 0.32062 1.4035
2009.75 1.0382 1.1427 1.7259 0.63725 2.8837
2010 1.507 1.5055 2.0419 1.2172 3.012
2010.25 1.5736 1.4375 1.8918 1.2829 2.6587
2010.5 1.3084 1.5185 1.9149 1.2453 2.638
2010.75 1.7522 1.7962 2.1794 1.5432 3.0316
2011 2.6924 2.2331 2.6189 1.8849 3.4967
2011.25 2.5542 2.2224 2.6191 1.9755 3.3574
2011.5 2.5309 2.0037 2.3709 1.6535 2.9136
2011.75 0.38633 1.0018 1.3253 0.30588 2.1073
Return to Figure 7

Figure 7: The Contribution of the Lower Bound to the Great Recession Lower Left Panel: Nominal Interest Rate

Dates Data Fitted No ZLB Counter Lower 95% CB Upper 95% CB
2005 2.5765 2.5473 2.5473 2.0184 3.0058
2005.25 2.9125 2.9251 2.9251 2.3587 3.6497
2005.5 3.4118 3.3151 3.3151 2.7796 3.9348
2005.75 3.8914 3.8079 3.8079 3.334 4.5007
2006 4.4738 4.485 4.485 4.0498 4.8986
2006.25 4.7909 4.7943 4.7943 4.3955 5.2275
2006.5 4.9956 5.0683 5.0683 4.4065 5.5446
2006.75 4.9854 5.0813 5.0813 4.5515 5.5606
2007 5.0673 4.8967 4.8967 4.3189 5.3508
2007.25 4.8216 4.8948 4.8948 4.4001 5.4124
2007.5 4.3818 4.4405 4.4405 3.8113 4.876
2007.75 3.4628 3.4229 3.4229 2.9213 3.9335
2008 2.0883 2.0972 2.0972 1.5907 2.8558
2008.25 1.6414 1.6254 1.6254 0.88086 2.2586
2008.5 1.5195 1.3873 1.3873 0.883 1.9237
2008.75 0.31357 0.017065 -1.6944 -3.5218 0.2707
2009 0.21239 0 -3.3575 -5.6449 -1.2019
2009.25 0.17193 0 -3.5882 -6.353 -1.1949
2009.5 0.16181 0 -3.6093 -6.2518 -1.648
2009.75 0.060671 0.0012371 -2.6529 -4.9041 -0.57871
2010 0.11124 0 -1.8395 -3.7366 -0.42219
2010.25 0.1517 0.0077349 -1.2593 -2.973 -0.14471
2010.5 0.1517 0.011034 -1.1243 -2.3964 0.019398
2010.75 0.14158 0.0081452 -1.2965 -2.7368 -0.059586
2011 0.13147 0.028906 -1.3846 -2.8409 0.29758
2011.25 0.050559 0.020868 -1.4976 -3.2677 0.19082
2011.5 0.030334 0.056152 -1.1852 -2.957 0.58358
2011.75 0.010111 0.043982 -1.0878 -4.042 0.30009
Return to Figure 7

Figure 7: The Contribution of the Lower Bound to the Great Recession Lower Right Panel: Notional Rate

Dates Data Fitted No ZLB Counter Lower 95% CB Upper 95% CB
2005 2.5765 2.5473 2.5473 2.0184 3.0058
2005.25 2.9125 2.9251 2.9251 2.3587 3.6497
2005.5 3.4118 3.3151 3.3151 2.7796 3.9348
2005.75 3.8914 3.8079 3.8079 3.334 4.5007
2006 4.4738 4.485 4.485 4.0498 4.8986
2006.25 4.7909 4.7943 4.7943 4.3955 5.2275
2006.5 4.9956 5.0683 5.0683 4.4065 5.5446
2006.75 4.9854 5.0813 5.0813 4.5515 5.5606
2007 5.0673 4.8967 4.8967 4.3189 5.3508
2007.25 4.8216 4.8948 4.8948 4.4001 5.4124
2007.5 4.3818 4.4405 4.4405 3.8113 4.876
2007.75 3.4628 3.4229 3.4229 2.9213 3.9335
2008 2.0883 2.0972 2.0972 1.5907 2.8558
2008.25 1.6414 1.6254 1.6254 0.88086 2.2586
2008.5 1.5195 1.3873 1.3873 0.883 1.9237
2008.75 0.31357 -1.6944 -1.6944 -3.5218 0.2707
2009 0.21239 -3.3067 -3.3575 -5.6449 -1.2019
2009.25 0.17193 -3.4239 -3.5882 -6.353 -1.1949
2009.5 0.16181 -3.3403 -3.6093 -6.2518 -1.648
2009.75 0.060671 -2.3498 -2.6529 -4.9041 -0.57871
2010 0.11124 -1.5329 -1.8395 -3.7366 -0.42219
2010.25 0.1517 -0.96585 -1.2593 -2.973 -0.14471
2010.5 0.1517 -0.86174 -1.1243 -2.3964 0.019398
2010.75 0.14158 -1.0689 -1.2965 -2.7368 -0.059586
2011 0.13147 -1.1827 -1.3846 -2.8409 0.29758
2011.25 0.050559 -1.3013 -1.4976 -3.2677 0.19082
2011.5 0.030334 -0.98638 -1.1852 -2.957 0.58358
2011.75 0.010111 -0.87938 -1.0878 -4.042 0.30009
Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: The Expected Path of Nominal Interest Rates Financial Market Federal Funds-Rate Expectations Upper Left Panel: Expectations as of 2009:Q1

Dates Financial Market Expectations Median Financial Market Expectations Lower 90% CB Financial Market Expectations Lower 70% CB Financial Market Expectations Upper 70% CB Financial Market Expectations Upper 90% CB Model Median Model Lower 67% CB Model Upper 67% CB
2009 0.14462 0.13836 0.14049 0.14865 0.15148 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.25 0.2271 0.18468 0.19901 0.26024 0.28317 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.5 0.2903 0.18798 0.22083 0.38411 0.45234 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.75 0.36811 0.19642 0.24739 0.53776 0.67316 0.125 0.125 0.89667
2010 0.49919 0.24958 0.32293 0.77021 0.99207 0.125 0.125 1.8306
2010.25 0.6148 0.29399 0.38677 0.97886 1.2855 0.59893 0.125 2.5533
2010.5 0.79253 0.37364 0.49342 1.2719 1.6841 1.1874 0.125 3.1385
2010.75 0.98852 0.46971 0.61892 1.5926 2.114 1.6823 0.125 3.6149
2011 1.3726 0.66374 0.86718 2.2067 2.9496 2.0904 0.125 4.0117
2011.25 1.9952 0.98435 1.2735 3.1963 4.3024 2.4294 0.1712 4.3518
2011.5 2.2547 1.1253 1.451 3.5811 4.7821 2.7152 0.51026 4.6379
2011.75 2.4346 1.217 1.5699 3.8344 5.0741 2.9628 0.79135 4.8859
2012 2.5623 1.2666 1.6428 4.0096 5.2579 3.1779 1.0242 5.1014
2012.25 2.6421 1.2819 1.6786 4.131 5.3757 3.3629 1.2302 5.2915
2012.5 2.6905 1.2718 1.6864 4.2162 5.4559 3.5226 1.4104 5.4519
2012.75 2.722 1.2445 1.6736 4.2756 5.5149 3.6655 1.571 5.5932
2013 2.7267 1.2068 1.6468 4.3157 5.5612 3.7895 1.7085 5.7167
2013.25 2.7143 1.1635 1.6109 4.3417 5.5996 3.8981 1.8375 5.8212
2013.5 2.6944 1.117 1.5687 4.3571 5.6325 3.9952 1.9414 5.9139
2013.75 2.671 1.0698 1.5231 4.3634 5.66 4.0792 2.0294 5.9988
2014 2.6381 1.024 1.4765 4.3619 5.6814 4.1531 2.1117 6.0752
2014.25 2.5986 0.98034 1.4301 4.3536 5.6968 4.2176 2.1864 6.141
2014.5 2.5584 0.93841 1.384 4.3393 5.706 4.2714 2.2502 6.1982
2014.75 2.5179 0.89872 1.3389 4.3195 5.7089 4.3239 2.3047 6.247
Return to Figure 8

Figure 8: The Expected Path of Nominal Interest Rates Financial Market Federal Funds-Rate Expectations Upper Right Panel: Expectations as of 2010:Q2

Dates Financial Market Expectations Median Financial Market Expectations Lower 90% CB Financial Market Expectations Lower 70% CB Financial Market Expectations Upper 70% CB Financial Market Expectations Upper 90% CB Model Median Model Lower 67% CB Model Upper 67% CB
2009 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.25 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.5 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.75 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 0.125 0.125 0.125
2010 NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN 0.125 0.125 0.125
2010.25 0.13277 0.12975 0.13072 0.13488 0.13618 0.125 0.125 0.125
2010.5 0.19217 0.15441 0.16605 0.22204 0.24379 0.125 0.125 0.54747
2010.75 0.24718 0.1395 0.17111 0.352 0.43766 0.23016 0.125 1.5854
2011 0.2011 0.072906 0.10643 0.38156 0.54979 0.83008 0.125 2.3857
2011.25 0.23598 0.059621 0.099648 0.52644 0.82919 1.3437 0.125 3.0119
2011.5 0.32492 0.073022 0.12798 0.78317 1.2669 1.7838 0.125 3.5194
2011.75 0.46057 0.10339 0.18111 1.1147 1.7875 2.1625 0.125 3.9408
2012 0.62932 0.15038 0.2577 1.4782 2.3124 2.4812 0.39875 4.2929
2012.25 0.83208 0.21582 0.35808 1.8422 2.7977 2.7549 0.66795 4.5927
2012.5 1.0547 0.30269 0.48309 2.1904 3.231 2.9916 0.90511 4.8544
2012.75 1.2868 0.41388 0.63267 2.5108 3.6101 3.1975 1.1183 5.0737
2013 1.5168 0.55485 0.80717 2.7906 3.9319 3.3783 1.3009 5.2652
2013.25 1.7309 0.69148 0.97302 3.0528 4.2336 3.5357 1.4631 5.4348
2013.5 1.9095 0.7503 1.0647 3.3449 4.5765 3.675 1.6115 5.5816
2013.75 2.0956 0.87526 1.212 3.5721 4.847 3.7953 1.7419 5.7072
2014 2.2512 0.9551 1.315 3.7944 5.115 3.9025 1.8572 5.8204
2014.25 2.3655 0.92396 1.3183 4.0438 5.4079 3.9989 1.9594 5.913
2014.5 2.4806 0.94787 1.3663 4.2386 5.6415 4.082 2.0534 5.9952
2014.75 2.5772 0.96176 1.4023 4.4126 5.8508 4.1555 2.1298 6.0683
Return to Figure 8

Figure 8: The Expected Path of Nominal Interest Rates Blue Chip 3-month Treasury Bill Expectations Lower Left Panel: Expectations as of 2009:Q1

Dates Financial Market Expectations Median Financial Market Expectations Mean Lowest 10 Obs Financial Market Expectations Mean Highest 10 Obs Model Median Model Lower 67% CB Model Upper 67% CB
2009 0.125 0.1 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.25 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.75 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.125 0.125 0.89667
2010 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.125 0.125 1.8306
2010.25 0.8 0.4 1.4 0.59893 0.125 2.5533
2010.5 1.1 0.4 1.9 1.1874 0.125 3.1385
2010.75 1.5 0.5 2.5 1.6823 0.125 3.6149
2011 1.8834 0.74782 3.022 2.0904 0.125 4.0117
2011.25 2.2248 1.0899 3.4368 2.4294 0.1712 4.3518
2011.5 2.5288 1.4621 3.7581 2.7152 0.51026 4.6379
2011.75 2.8 1.8 4 2.9628 0.79135 4.8859
2012 3.0422 2.0547 4.177 3.1779 1.0242 5.1014
2012.25 3.2562 2.2381 4.3069 3.3629 1.2302 5.2915
2012.5 3.4421 2.3774 4.4084 3.5226 1.4104 5.4519
2012.75 3.6 2.5 4.5 3.6655 1.571 5.5932
2013 3.7308 2.6273 4.5966 3.7895 1.7085 5.7167
2013.25 3.8381 2.7578 4.6981 3.8981 1.8375 5.8212
2013.5 3.9264 2.8844 4.8005 3.9952 1.9414 5.9139
2013.75 4 3 4.9 4.0792 2.0294 5.9988
2014 4.0628 3.0988 4.9927 4.1531 2.1117 6.0752
2014.25 4.1165 3.1807 5.0756 4.2176 2.1864 6.141
2014.5 4.1619 3.2473 5.1457 4.2714 2.2502 6.1982
2014.75 4.2 3.3 5.2 4.3239 2.3047 6.247
Return to Figure 8

Figure 8: The Expected Path of Nominal Interest Rates Blue Chip 3-month Treasury Bill Expectations Lower Right Panel: Expectations as of 2010:Q2

Dates Financial Market Expectations Median Financial Market Expectations Mean Lowest 10 Obs Financial Market Expectations Mean Highest 10 Obs Model Median Model Lower 67% CB Model Upper 67% CB
2009 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.25 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.5 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125
2009.75 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125
2010 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125
2010.25 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125
2010.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.125 0.125 0.54747
2010.75 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.23016 0.125 1.5854
2011 0.7 0.3 1.2 0.83008 0.125 2.3857
2011.25 1.1 0.5 1.7 1.3437 0.125 3.0119
2011.5 1.6 0.8 2.4 1.7838 0.125 3.5194
2011.75 2 1.1 2.9 2.1625 0.125 3.9408
2012 2.2508 1.2696 3.2446 2.4812 0.39875 4.2929
2012.25 2.4025 1.3372 3.5048 2.7549 0.66795 4.5927
2012.5 2.5153 1.3737 3.7126 2.9916 0.90511 4.8544
2012.75 2.65 1.45 3.9 3.1975 1.1183 5.0737
2013 2.8503 1.6171 4.0913 3.3783 1.3009 5.2652
2013.25 3.0934 1.8466 4.2807 3.5357 1.4631 5.4348
2013.5 3.3398 2.0903 4.4548 3.675 1.6115 5.5816
2013.75 3.55 2.3 4.6 3.7953 1.7419 5.7072
2014 3.6941 2.4395 4.7065 3.9025 1.8572 5.8204
2014.25 3.7802 2.5203 4.7786 3.9989 1.9594 5.913
2014.5 3.8263 2.5659 4.8238 4.082 2.0534 5.9952
2014.75 3.85 2.6 4.85 4.1555 2.1298 6.0683
Return to Figure 8

Figure 9: The Distributin of the Probability of Hitting the Lower Bound Top Panel: The CDF of the Prob(0
Percent Population Probability Percent Sample Probability
0 0 0 0.42796
0.1 0 0.01 0.52362
0.35 0 1 0.66052
0.6 0.030303 3 0.7569
0.85 0.040404 5 0.85512
1.1 0.050505 7 0.89861
1.35 0.050505 9 0.92913
1.6 0.070707 11 0.95915
1.85 0.090909 13 0.97192
2.1 0.17172 15 0.98087
2.35 0.22222 17 0.98949
2.6 0.36364 19 0.99317
2.85 0.50505 21 0.9956
3.1 0.64646 23 0.99713
3.35 0.74747 25 0.99845
3.6 0.80808 27 0.99897
3.85 0.89899 29 0.99897
4.1 0.93939    
4.35 0.94949    
4.6 0.9798    
4.85 0.9899    
5.1 1    
5.35 1    
Return to Figure 9

Figure 9: The Distributin of the Probability of Hitting the Lower Bound Middle Panel: Right Tail of Population Histogram of Prob(0
Percent Percent of Observations
3.5 17.172
4 6.0606
4.5 5.0505
5 1.0101
5.5 0
Return to Figure 9

Figure 9: The Distributin of the Probability of Hitting the Lower Bound Bottom Panel: Right Tail of the Sample Histogram of Prob(0
Percent Percent of Observations Percent Far-Right Tail of the histogram
2 11.41 30 0.038904
4 8.3545 32 0.012304
6 8.2221 34 0.0073824
8 3.7087 36 0.010312
10 2.5789 38 0.0036326
12 2.5063 40 0.0033983
14 1.0742 42 0.0018749
16 0.74035 44 0.0010546
18 0.72992 46 0.00093745
20 0.296 48 0.00058591
22 0.20038 50 0.00035154
24 0.16101    
26 0.060348    
28 0.045232    
30 0    
Return to Figure 9

Figure 10: The Distribution of the Duration of a Lower Bound Spell Top Panel: Estimated CDF of Duration of ZLB Spells

Probability Duration
1 0.37651
2 0.5636
3 0.68522
4 0.76982
5 0.8316
6 0.87598
7 0.90834
8 0.9326
9 0.94999
10 0.96293
11 0.97182
12 0.97822
13 0.98365
14 0.98738
15 0.99069
16 0.99294
17 0.99446
18 0.99575
19 0.99685
20 0.99758
21 0.99806
22 0.99862
23 0.99893
24 0.99919
25 0.99934
Return to Figure 10

Figure 10: The Distribution of the Duration of a Lower Bound Spell Bottom Panel: Right Tail of Histogram of Duration of ZLB Spells

Full Tail Quarters Full Tail Percent of Spells Far-Right Tail of the Histogram Quarters Far-Right Tail of the Histogram Percent of Spells
5 6.1772 20 0.073024
6 4.4382 21 0.047969
7 3.2361 22 0.055893
8 2.4264 23 0.031266
9 1.7386 24 0.026554
10 1.2942 25 0.01499
11 0.88914 26 0.015847
12 0.64009 27 0.017239
13 0.54286 28 0.0049254
14 0.37315 29 0.0047112
15 0.33032 30 0.0049254
16 0.22496 31 0.0046042
17 0.15269 32 0.0016061
18 0.1286 33 0.0041759
19 0.10996 34 0.002891
20 0.073024 35 0.00096366
21 0.047969 36 0.0012849
22 0.055893 37 0.0010707
23 0.031266 38 0.00021415
24 0.026554 39 0.00010707
25 0.01499 40 0
Return to Figure 10

Figure 11: The Dynamics of Short and Long Lower Bound Spells Column 1 Row 1: Output

Quarters Long Duration Spells Short Duration Spells
1 100 100
2 97.346 97.844
3 96.218 98.142
4 96.063 99.042
5 96.294 100.09
6 96.697 101.14
7 97.199 102.15
8 97.779 103.15
9 98.481 104.13
10 99.235 105.07
11 100.18 106.01
12 101.38 106.94
13 102.92 107.85
14 104.4 108.75
15 105.78 109.65
16 107.04 110.56
17 108.18 111.47
18 109.32 112.39
19 110.36 113.31
20 111.35 114.23
Return to Figure 11

Figure 11: The Dynamics of Short and Long Lower Bound Spells Column 2 Row 1: Inflation

Quarters Long Duration Spells Short Duration Spells Steady State
1 1.3518 1.3518 2.6121
2 1.1405 1.4788 2.6121
3 1.027 2.0321 2.6121
4 0.94402 2.2274 2.6121
5 0.87687 2.3581 2.6121
6 0.83367 2.4415 2.6121
7 0.81014 2.4954 2.6121
8 0.80599 2.5275 2.6121
9 0.84198 2.5476 2.6121
10 0.94314 2.5647 2.6121
11 1.1853 2.5769 2.6121
12 1.4154 2.5796 2.6121
13 1.7148 2.5754 2.6121
14 1.9548 2.5727 2.6121
15 2.1327 2.5722 2.6121
16 2.2498 2.5739 2.6121
17 2.3372 2.5733 2.6121
18 2.3971 2.5762 2.6121
19 2.4376 2.5753 2.6121
20 2.4638 2.5762 2.6121
Return to Figure 11

Figure 11: The Dynamics of Short and Long Lower Bound Spells Column 1 Row 2: Nominal Interest Rate

Quarters Long Duration Spells Short Duration Spells Steady State
1 0 0 4.7762
2 0 0 4.7762
3 0 0 4.7762
4 0 0 4.7762
5 0 0.064568 4.7762
6 0 0.7692 4.7762
7 0 1.3447 4.7762
8 0 1.8283 4.7762
9 0 2.2292 4.7762
10 0 2.5613 4.7762
11 0 2.8441 4.7762
12 0 3.0867 4.7762
13 0 3.2993 4.7762
14 0 3.4838 4.7762
15 0.51393 3.638 4.7762
16 1.0744 3.7696 4.7762
17 1.548 3.8831 4.7762
18 1.9533 3.9825 4.7762
19 2.31 4.0668 4.7762
20 2.5976 4.1407 4.7762
Return to Figure 11

Figure 11: The Dynamics of Short and Long Lower Bound Spells Column 2 Row 2: Notional Interest Rate

Quarters Long Duration Spells Short Duration Spells Steady State
1 -1.708 -1.708 4.7762
2 -2.9354 -2.3424 4.7762
3 -3.2169 -1.6791 4.7762
4 -3.155 -0.80737 4.7762
5 -2.9728 0.064568 4.7762
6 -2.8266 0.7692 4.7762
7 -2.7062 1.3447 4.7762
8 -2.6146 1.8283 4.7762
9 -2.5004 2.2292 4.7762
10 -2.3169 2.5613 4.7762
11 -2.0015 2.8441 4.7762
12 -1.4802 3.0867 4.7762
13 -0.85684 3.2993 4.7762
14 -0.16343 3.4838 4.7762
15 0.51393 3.638 4.7762
16 1.0744 3.7696 4.7762
17 1.548 3.8831 4.7762
18 1.9533 3.9825 4.7762
19 2.31 4.0668 4.7762
20 2.5976 4.1407 4.7762
Return to Figure 11

Figure 11: The Dynamics of Short and Long Lower Bound Spells Column 1 Row 3: Discount Factor Shock

Quarters Long Duration Spells Short Duration Spells
1 -1.4503 -1.4503
2 -1.4171 -1.2757
3 -1.3985 -1.1206
4 -1.3881 -0.98342
5 -1.3825 -0.86223
6 -1.378 -0.75448
7 -1.3741 -0.6595
8 -1.367 -0.5753
9 -1.3541 -0.50157
10 -1.3325 -0.4369
11 -1.2922 -0.38039
12 -1.2183 -0.3325
13 -1.0765 -0.29378
14 -0.95224 -0.25988
15 -0.83883 -0.23001
16 -0.74091 -0.2034
17 -0.65438 -0.18011
18 -0.579 -0.15928
19 -0.51371 -0.14097
20 -0.45357 -0.12501
Return to Figure 11

Figure 11: The Dynamics of Short and Long Lower Bound Spells Column 2 Row 3: Technology Shock

Quarters Long Duration Spells Short Duration Spells
1 -1.5027 -1.5027
2 -0.052493 0.0012045
3 -0.067843 0.0032027
4 -0.08777 0.0035231
5 -0.096859 0.0041934
6 -0.11286 0.005058
7 -0.11568 0.0052881
8 -0.12024 0.0064312
9 -0.12149 0.0065961
10 -0.12611 0.0042438
11 -0.12372 0.0065331
12 -0.07432 0.0021742
13 0.0017163 0.0012843
14 -0.001155 -0.00073909
15 -0.0028821 -6.36E-05
16 -0.0073294 -0.00025792
17 0.0064011 -0.0018916
18 0.003573 -0.00091453
19 -0.0024503 0.0024011
20 0.0016084 -0.00083049
Return to Figure 11

Figure B.1: Comparison of Model Solutions (2009:Q2 Initial Conditions) Top Left: Nominal Rate

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0.083224 0
6 0.78334 0
7 1.3394 0
8 1.8074 0
9 2.1975 0
10 2.5235 0
11 2.8021 0
12 3.0444 0
13 3.2499 0
14 3.429 0
15 3.5881 0.17721
16 3.7304 0.63772
17 3.8509 0.89532
18 3.9594 1.0548
19 4.0546 1.2051
20 4.1408 1.3335
Return to Figure b1

Figure B.1: Comparison of Model Solutions (2009:Q2 Initial Conditions) Top Right: Notional Rate

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 -3.5074 -5.5362
2 -2.8677 -7.6777
3 -1.7913 -9.4348
4 -0.79125 -10.782
5 0.083224 -11.74
6 0.78334 -12.403
7 1.3394 -12.745
8 1.8074 -12.787
9 2.1975 -12.43
10 2.5235 -11.647
11 2.8021 -10.304
12 3.0444 -8.1987
13 3.2499 -5.3661
14 3.429 -1.9743
15 3.5881 0.17782
16 3.7304 0.63772
17 3.8509 0.89532
18 3.9594 1.0548
19 4.0546 1.2051
20 4.1408 1.3335
Return to Figure b1

Figure B.1: Comparison of Model Solutions (2009:Q2 Initial Conditions) Middle Left: Output Growth

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 -4.0735 -5.1145
2 -0.012328 -2.3485
3 1.804 -0.22275
4 2.1812 0.83164
5 2.1534 1.0637
6 2.0404 0.89593
7 1.9262 0.48864
8 1.8401 0.054256
9 1.7772 -0.40897
10 1.7337 -0.79456
11 1.7058 -1.1597
12 1.6822 -1.5366
13 1.6749 -1.791
14 1.6642 -2.022
15 1.6537 -2.1937
16 1.6645 -2.3486
17 1.6534 -2.4844
18 1.6511 -2.5554
19 1.6564 -2.6447
20 1.649 -2.6815
Return to Figure b1

Figure B.1: Comparison of Model Solutions (2009:Q2 Initial Conditions) Middle Right: Inflation

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 1.2758 0.014846
2 1.4347 -0.90782
3 1.9244 -1.2539
4 2.1277 -1.4732
5 2.2634 -1.5349
6 2.3521 -1.4534
7 2.4157 -1.2938
8 2.455 -1.0085
9 2.4848 -0.59286
10 2.5074 -0.074143
11 2.525 0.51543
12 2.5364 0.88361
13 2.5472 1.0504
14 2.555 1.1034
15 2.5602 1.1484
16 2.5672 1.1726
17 2.5723 1.185
18 2.5765 1.2094
19 2.5811 1.1962
20 2.5841 1.1801
Return to Figure b1

Figure B.1: Comparison of Model Solutions (2009:Q2 Initial Conditions) Bottom Left: Consumption Euler Error

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 0.00051448 0.020371
2 0.00068335 0.014992
3 0.00082296 0.010051
4 0.00081515 0.0060683
5 0.00077973 0.0075529
6 0.00065223 0.0092491
7 0.00046343 0.011768
8 0.0002183 0.01382
9 0.00018117 0.016096
10 0.00014775 0.017441
11 0.00012702 0.018381
12 0.00011102 0.018076
13 0.00010761 0.017813
14 0.00010199 0.019418
15 0.00010385 0.019642
16 9.88E-05 0.020658
17 0.00010111 0.018923
18 9.80E-05 0.019873
19 9.26E-05 0.021577
20 9.31E-05 0.021435
Return to Figure b1

Figure B.1: Comparison of Model Solutions (2009:Q2 Initial Conditions) Bottom Right: x10^-3 Sticky Price Euler Error

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 5.65E-05 0.0043448
2 8.20E-05 0.0030809
3 9.03E-05 0.0017847
4 7.42E-05 0.0015965
5 6.77E-05 0.0020628
6 4.42E-05 0.0027246
7 3.60E-05 0.00319
8 3.21E-05 0.0038412
9 2.94E-05 0.0040855
10 2.77E-05 0.0044416
11 2.54E-05 0.0046888
12 2.43E-05 0.0041817
13 2.33E-05 0.003958
14 2.22E-05 0.0039916
15 2.23E-05 0.0039392
16 2.18E-05 0.0039403
17 1.98E-05 0.0039399
18 1.99E-05 0.0039447
19 1.95E-05 0.0039428
20 1.89E-05 0.0039454
Return to Figure b1

Figure B.2: Comparison of Model Solutions (2006:Q1 Initial Conditions) Top Left: Nominal Rate

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 4.4689 4.4605
2 4.8531 4.8613
3 4.9836 4.982
4 5.037 5.0322
5 5.0483 5.048
6 5.0421 5.0412
7 5.0293 5.0312
8 5.011 5.0093
9 4.9938 5.0016
10 4.9712 4.9916
11 4.9508 4.9638
12 4.9326 4.9475
13 4.917 4.9341
14 4.8998 4.919
15 4.8846 4.9047
16 4.8738 4.8883
17 4.8628 4.8786
18 4.8518 4.8671
19 4.8406 4.8468
20 4.835 4.8485
Return to Figure b2

Figure B.2: Comparison of Model Solutions (2006:Q1 Initial Conditions) Top Right: Notional Rate

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 4.4689 4.4605
2 4.8531 4.8613
3 4.9836 4.982
4 5.037 5.0322
5 5.0483 5.048
6 5.0421 5.0412
7 5.0293 5.0312
8 5.011 5.0093
9 4.9938 5.0016
10 4.9712 4.9916
11 4.9508 4.9638
12 4.9326 4.9475
13 4.917 4.9341
14 4.8998 4.919
15 4.8846 4.9047
16 4.8738 4.8883
17 4.8628 4.8786
18 4.8518 4.8671
19 4.8406 4.8468
20 4.835 4.8485
Return to Figure b2

Figure B.2: Comparison of Model Solutions (2006:Q1 Initial Conditions) Middle Left: Output Growth

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 2.1196 2.0965
2 0.84465 0.78278
3 0.83612 0.83145
4 0.9313 0.91377
5 1.0761 1.0574
6 1.2174 1.2067
7 1.3285 1.3191
8 1.4114 1.4082
9 1.4745 1.4745
10 1.5184 1.5173
11 1.5546 1.5565
12 1.574 1.5672
13 1.5969 1.6029
14 1.6107 1.6125
15 1.6142 1.613
16 1.6316 1.6422
17 1.6324 1.6304
18 1.637 1.6404
19 1.6436 1.6459
20 1.6398 1.6452
Return to Figure b2

Figure B.2: Comparison of Model Solutions (2006:Q1 Initial Conditions) Middle Right: Inflation

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 3.5123 3.5088
2 3.2217 3.2388
3 3.0714 3.0792
4 2.9465 2.956
5 2.8579 2.8665
6 2.7927 2.7991
7 2.7454 2.7572
8 2.7086 2.7192
9 2.682 2.6903
10 2.6629 2.6745
11 2.6496 2.6548
12 2.6375 2.6413
13 2.631 2.6389
14 2.6245 2.6303
15 2.619 2.6251
16 2.6171 2.6205
17 2.6143 2.6173
18 2.6128 2.614
19 2.6121 2.6123
20 2.6111 2.6069
Return to Figure b2

Figure B.2: Comparison of Model Solutions (2006:Q1 Initial Conditions) Bottom Left: x10^-3 Consumption Euler Error

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 3.31E-05 0.006629
2 1.39E-05 0.006651
3 4.84E-05 0.0066519
4 5.93E-05 0.0066553
5 7.24E-05 0.0066708
6 8.09E-05 0.0066779
7 8.55E-05 0.0066867
8 8.73E-05 0.0066853
9 9.27E-05 0.0066918
10 9.54E-05 0.0067038
11 9.70E-05 0.0066957
12 9.61E-05 0.0066916
13 0.0001009 0.0067103
14 0.00010167 0.0066931
15 0.00010257 0.0066969
16 9.96E-05 0.0066964
17 0.00010117 0.0066933
18 9.85E-05 0.0066956
19 0.00010014 0.006702
20 0.00010623 0.0067088
Return to Figure b2

Figure B.2: Comparison of Model Solutions (2006:Q1 Initial Conditions) x10^-3 Sticky Price Euler Error

Quarters Projection Method Constrained-Linear Method
1 2.51E-05 0.00095431
2 1.80E-05 0.00095997
3 1.45E-05 0.00096713
4 1.38E-05 0.0009722
5 1.37E-05 0.00098208
6 1.40E-05 0.0009852
7 1.40E-05 0.000988
8 1.52E-05 0.00099156
9 1.46E-05 0.00099441
10 1.46E-05 0.0009972
11 1.52E-05 0.0009939
12 1.55E-05 0.0010011
13 1.59E-05 0.0010043
14 1.55E-05 0.00099752
15 1.62E-05 0.0010014
16 1.65E-05 0.00099974
17 1.60E-05 0.0009999
18 1.67E-05 0.00099823
19 1.59E-05 0.0010034
20 1.59E-05 0.0010051
Return to Figure b2
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Last update: May 30, 2013