Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for FEDS 2013-23
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Made Poorer by Choice: Worker Outcomes in Social Security v. Private Retirement Accounts
Javed I. Ahmed, Brad M. Barber, and Terrance Odean
Figure 1: Cohort mortality
| Year |
Age |
N Living |
% Living |
| 2000 |
21 |
3615 |
100% |
| 2001 |
22 |
3612 |
100% |
| 2002 |
23 |
3611 |
100% |
| 2003 |
24 |
3606 |
100% |
| 2004 |
25 |
3603 |
100% |
| 2005 |
26 |
3598 |
100% |
| 2006 |
27 |
3595 |
99% |
| 2007 |
28 |
3592 |
99% |
| 2008 |
29 |
3588 |
99% |
| 2009 |
30 |
3586 |
99% |
| 2010 |
31 |
3583 |
99% |
| 2011 |
32 |
3575 |
99% |
| 2012 |
33 |
3568 |
99% |
| 2013 |
34 |
3562 |
99% |
| 2014 |
35 |
3555 |
98% |
| 2015 |
36 |
3551 |
98% |
| 2016 |
37 |
3548 |
98% |
| 2017 |
38 |
3539 |
98% |
| 2018 |
39 |
3533 |
98% |
| 2019 |
40 |
3526 |
98% |
| 2020 |
41 |
3522 |
97% |
| 2021 |
42 |
3517 |
97% |
| 2022 |
43 |
3510 |
97% |
| 2023 |
44 |
3496 |
97% |
| 2024 |
45 |
3489 |
97% |
| 2025 |
46 |
3485 |
96% |
| 2026 |
47 |
3481 |
96% |
| 2027 |
48 |
3472 |
96% |
| 2028 |
49 |
3456 |
96% |
| 2029 |
50 |
3444 |
95% |
| 2030 |
51 |
3436 |
95% |
| 2031 |
52 |
3421 |
95% |
| 2032 |
53 |
3408 |
94% |
| 2033 |
54 |
3396 |
94% |
| 2034 |
55 |
3380 |
93% |
| 2035 |
56 |
3365 |
93% |
| 2036 |
57 |
3343 |
92% |
| 2037 |
58 |
3329 |
92% |
| 2038 |
59 |
3309 |
92% |
| 2039 |
60 |
3282 |
91% |
| 2040 |
61 |
3255 |
90% |
| 2041 |
62 |
3229 |
89% |
| 2042 |
63 |
3190 |
88% |
| 2043 |
64 |
3143 |
87% |
| 2044 |
65 |
3102 |
86% |
| 2045 |
66 |
3060 |
85% |
| 2046 |
67 |
3017 |
83% |
| 2047 |
68 |
2969 |
82% |
| 2048 |
69 |
2919 |
81% |
| 2049 |
70 |
2866 |
79% |
| 2050 |
71 |
2811 |
78% |
| 2051 |
72 |
2753 |
76% |
| 2052 |
73 |
2691 |
74% |
| 2053 |
74 |
2634 |
73% |
| 2054 |
75 |
2565 |
71% |
| 2055 |
76 |
2495 |
69% |
| 2056 |
77 |
2421 |
67% |
| 2057 |
78 |
2339 |
65% |
| 2058 |
79 |
2252 |
62% |
| 2059 |
80 |
2165 |
60% |
| 2060 |
81 |
2076 |
57% |
| 2061 |
82 |
1979 |
55% |
| 2062 |
83 |
1879 |
52% |
| 2063 |
84 |
1764 |
49% |
| 2064 |
85 |
1640 |
45% |
| 2065 |
86 |
1521 |
42% |
| 2066 |
87 |
1392 |
39% |
| 2067 |
88 |
1258 |
35% |
| 2068 |
89 |
1131 |
31% |
| 2069 |
90 |
1003 |
28% |
| 2070 |
91 |
881 |
24% |
| 2071 |
92 |
764 |
21% |
| 2072 |
93 |
655 |
18% |
| 2073 |
94 |
559 |
15% |
| 2074 |
95 |
464 |
13% |
| 2075 |
96 |
372 |
10% |
| 2076 |
97 |
301 |
8% |
| 2077 |
98 |
244 |
7% |
| 2078 |
99 |
190 |
5% |
| 2079 |
100 |
156 |
4% |
Figure 3: Stock Allocation in Retirement Accounts
| Percentile |
Equity Share |
| 0 |
0.00% |
| 1 |
0.00% |
| 2 |
0.00% |
| 3 |
0.00% |
| 4 |
0.00% |
| 5 |
0.00% |
| 6 |
0.00% |
| 7 |
0.00% |
| 8 |
0.00% |
| 9 |
0.00% |
| 10 |
0.00% |
| 11 |
0.00% |
| 12 |
0.00% |
| 13 |
0.79% |
| 14 |
3.68% |
| 15 |
5.10% |
| 16 |
8.67% |
| 17 |
10.00% |
| 18 |
11.09% |
| 19 |
14.08% |
| 20 |
15.03% |
| 21 |
17.39% |
| 22 |
18.71% |
| 23 |
20.00% |
| 24 |
20.00% |
| 25 |
21.46% |
| 26 |
23.00% |
| 27 |
24.18% |
| 28 |
25.00% |
| 29 |
25.00% |
| 30 |
26.00% |
| 31 |
27.03% |
| 32 |
28.63% |
| 33 |
30.00% |
| 34 |
30.00% |
| 35 |
30.87% |
| 36 |
32.14% |
| 37 |
33.02% |
| 38 |
34.29% |
| 39 |
35.00% |
| 40 |
36.00% |
| 41 |
37.50% |
| 42 |
38.33% |
| 43 |
39.62% |
| 44 |
40.00% |
| 45 |
41.00% |
| 46 |
42.00% |
| 47 |
43.00% |
| 48 |
44.24% |
| 49 |
45.50% |
| 50 |
46.36% |
| 51 |
48.00% |
| 52 |
49.00% |
| 53 |
50.00% |
| 54 |
50.00% |
| 55 |
50.00% |
| 56 |
50.00% |
| 57 |
50.00% |
| 58 |
50.00% |
| 59 |
50.00% |
| 60 |
51.00% |
| 61 |
53.33% |
| 62 |
55.05% |
| 63 |
57.14% |
| 64 |
58.59% |
| 65 |
60.00% |
| 66 |
60.00% |
| 67 |
60.00% |
| 68 |
60.04% |
| 69 |
61.88% |
| 70 |
65.00% |
| 71 |
65.79% |
| 72 |
68.00% |
| 73 |
70.00% |
| 74 |
70.59% |
| 75 |
73.56% |
| 76 |
75.00% |
| 77 |
75.89% |
| 78 |
78.92% |
| 79 |
80.00% |
| 80 |
80.85% |
| 81 |
83.33% |
| 82 |
86.67% |
| 83 |
90.00% |
| 84 |
92.02% |
| 85 |
97.39% |
| 86 |
100.00% |
| 87 |
100.00% |
| 88 |
100.00% |
| 89 |
100.00% |
| 90 |
100.00% |
| 91 |
100.00% |
| 92 |
100.00% |
| 93 |
100.00% |
| 94 |
100.00% |
| 95 |
100.00% |
| 96 |
100.00% |
| 97 |
100.00% |
| 98 |
100.00% |
| 99 |
100.00% |
| 100 |
100.00% |
Figure 4: Distribution of Variable Annuity Payout by Age
| |
Mean |
Q1 |
Median |
Q3 |
| 66 |
6.178 |
5.621 |
6.13 |
6.677 |
| 67 |
6.368 |
5.525 |
6.27 |
7.085 |
| 68 |
6.545 |
5.494 |
6.389 |
7.412 |
| 69 |
6.743 |
5.482 |
6.529 |
7.768 |
| 70 |
6.953 |
5.484 |
6.683 |
8.091 |
| 71 |
7.143 |
5.521 |
6.803 |
8.382 |
| 72 |
7.347 |
5.533 |
6.941 |
8.705 |
| 73 |
7.594 |
5.57 |
7.1 |
9.06 |
| 74 |
7.825 |
5.619 |
7.242 |
9.428 |
| 75 |
8.076 |
5.651 |
7.412 |
9.747 |
| 76 |
8.32 |
5.681 |
7.59 |
10.142 |
| 77 |
8.592 |
5.75 |
7.786 |
10.54 |
| 78 |
8.852 |
5.794 |
7.938 |
10.899 |
| 79 |
9.107 |
5.842 |
8.125 |
11.295 |
| 80 |
9.392 |
5.86 |
8.214 |
11.686 |
| 81 |
9.668 |
5.883 |
8.467 |
12.023 |
| 82 |
9.964 |
5.969 |
8.686 |
12.452 |
| 83 |
10.27 |
6.056 |
8.872 |
12.789 |
| 84 |
10.577 |
6.114 |
9.07 |
13.187 |
| 85 |
10.879 |
6.198 |
9.273 |
13.551 |
| 86 |
11.235 |
6.329 |
9.491 |
13.978 |
| 87 |
11.562 |
6.39 |
9.67 |
14.387 |
| 88 |
11.928 |
6.503 |
9.921 |
14.884 |
| 89 |
12.27 |
6.583 |
10.153 |
15.289 |
| 90 |
12.658 |
6.639 |
10.319 |
15.913 |
| 91 |
13.058 |
6.705 |
10.572 |
16.399 |
| 92 |
13.433 |
6.773 |
10.769 |
16.83 |
| 93 |
13.846 |
6.921 |
11.01 |
17.314 |
| 94 |
14.265 |
7.064 |
11.262 |
17.621 |
| 95 |
14.693 |
7.099 |
11.44 |
18.253 |
| 96 |
15.146 |
7.245 |
11.706 |
18.895 |
| 97 |
15.568 |
7.315 |
11.965 |
19.301 |
| 98 |
16.013 |
7.366 |
12.3 |
19.861 |
| 99 |
16.458 |
7.45 |
12.438 |
20.521 |
| 100 |
16.943 |
7.527 |
12.663 |
21.125 |