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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 201359 ^♣

Cost of Borrowing Shocks and Fiscal Adjustment

Oliver de Groot, Federic Holm-Hadulla, and Nadine Leiner-Killinger

Figure 1: Cost of borrowing shock: extreme calibrations

Panel (row;column), Years	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state
1	-0.233867173210843	-0.93254104416538	0.953372947791742	0.173593823709972	-2.58012036877407	-0.93846631942946	0.114239370975655	1.05270569040512	-0.000406843735561552	-0.0316935916526429	0.998415320417267	-0.000120080819587809	-0.0796695449239984	-0.0317038994738561	0.000198734913492427	0.031902634387348	-0.233867173210843	-0.93254104416538	0.953372947791742	0.173593823709972	-2.58012036877407	-0.93846631942946	0.114239370975655	1.05270569040512	-0.230592570042779	-0.63620227652626	0.968189886173687	0.171963312688916	-1.83576382755188	-0.642044586209672	0.11263979374137	0.754684379951048	-0.253118340649332	-0.218176444662976	0.989091177766865	0.19644838208156	-0.814612928259592	-0.224589468864916	0.123643175830035	0.348232644694954	-0.335925910689937	0.0408727185292834	1.00204363592644	0.269230577726332	-0.255018707217972	0.0323616758844458	0.164092994347026	0.131731318462582	-0.497508399820153	0.181025045503758	1.00905125227519	0.376072561849383	-0.07644237158007	0.16842013747983	0.243022763178996	0.0746026256991651	-0.0620894234261059	-1.00428296875413	0.949785851562313	0.0251696463508533	-2.57682327319811	-1.00585607077828	0.0303294240874274	1.0361854948657	-0.0605241413225993	-0.708256598535134	0.964587170073261	0.0246972247341271	-1.83506534843548	-0.709790042466135	0.0295648155258732	0.739354857992008	-0.0616108201893974	-0.300290891478933	0.984985455426068	0.0286139762286419	-0.816268599851067	-0.30185186758494	0.0300956361130089	0.331947503697948	-0.0800908650698743	-0.06862094242433	0.996568952878874	0.0446760059018891	-0.256722770174618	-0.070650130254879	0.0391227632371871	0.109772893492065	-0.131957256180031	0.0250862015228615	1.00125431007625	0.0593603628974426	-0.0775979234222197	0.021742923157797	0.0644584433749929	0.0427155202171979	-0.0138385763411796	-1.02372817936356	0.948813591031916	-0.00144204424738503	-2.57413093247986	-1.02407879451052	0.00675986387790872	1.03083865838843	-0.0134552081847233	-0.727683830557263	0.963615808472174	-0.00139072950743335	-1.83358483894234	-0.72802473266384	0.006572596308696	0.734597328972535	-0.0129889524993206	-0.321094692031099	0.983945265398489	-0.000372937405529461	-0.816578338507799	-0.321423781050584	0.00634483986265977	0.327768620913247	-0.0154855056171489	-0.0965400185914567	0.995172999070415	0.00319559502247602	-0.257825433822909	-0.0969323604562922	0.00756435542729195	0.104496715883582	-0.0287748623200358	-0.0193004535837427	0.999034977321012	0.00119705007943782	-0.0788504664134624	-0.020029495518914	0.0140559366507975	0.0340854321697072	-0.00201323980407883	-1.02826713500573	0.948586643249372	-0.00127647449676416	-2.57290436095165	-1.02831814259418	0.000983426813094823	1.02930156940727	-0.00195775985480283	-0.732251417662999	0.963387429116636	-0.00124316062108387	-1.8327785062072	-0.732301019605847	0.000956325983086925	0.733257345588934	-0.0018476783530213	-0.325787449763809	0.983710627511814	-0.00101973255021148	-0.816463679151397	-0.325834262671754	0.00090255340208234	0.326736816073836	-0.00200329600280458	-0.102409164505363	0.994879541774796	-0.000305995962512906	-0.258162638193041	-0.102459920143033	0.000978569467863233	0.103438489610894	-0.00386829219541299	-0.0301684071630726	0.998491579641891	-0.000946987463240623	-0.0795371469560208	-0.0302664144504583	0.00188958228334313>	0.0321559967338032	-0.00022529773793141	-1.02892688633358	0.948553655683537	-0.00019660546777267	-2.57265260584316	-1.0289325944883	0.000110053375645958	1.02904264786395	-0.000219134525243151	-0.732921117627139	0.963353944118661	-0.00019154122212206	-1.83260406421683	-0.732926669635442	0.000107042771230192	0.73303371240667	-0.000205690245507233	-0.326467238502082	0.983676638075237	-0.000162197935033026	-0.816417218504155	-0.326472449882764	0.000100475513259424	0.326572925396023	-0.000214819448924479	-0.103188071445098	0.994840596427649	-6.78E-05	-0.258208214915901	-0.103193514126632	0.000104934943967461	0.103298449070597	-0.000406843735561552	-0.0316935916526429	0.998415320417267	-0.000120080819587809	-0.0796695449239984	-0.0317038994738561	0.000198734913492427	0.031902634387348	0.027728047878048	-1.04080490002376	0.947959754998862	-0.554458658033397	-2.57262476482512	-1.04010238024194	-0.0135445890266761	1.02655779121527	0.0309336733784702	-0.746237642928455	0.96268811785365	-0.556033807482215	-1.83277051182741	-0.745453905189281	-0.0151104720692685	0.730343433120012	0.00823242742233462	-0.330120233269615	0.983493988336615	-0.531420735964411	-0.81657743618637	-0.329911655908971	-0.00402137383120893	0.325890282077759	-0.0755461111433873	-0.0709250783818838	0.996453746080972	-0.457934371133878	-0.257650694437458	-0.0728391199885825	0.0369027431177671	0.109741863106349	-0.240544055248189	0.0711470614668808	1.00355735307347	-0.349030294560454	-0.0779064463894679	0.0650526202692348	0.117500892434846
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Parameters:upsilon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Parameters:psi-tau	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Parameters:psi-g	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Cost of borrowing shock: intermediate calibrations

Panel (row;column), Years	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state
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10	0.0103454135524055	0.267124742934866	0.147573965146086	0.1282827502606	0.0526396465084956	-0.168764646731295	0.00741606090696734	0.176180707636257	-0.000126914026119574	-0.676074257877313	0.100414015096595	-0.000835741550880842	0.0985936932298273	-0.0208477015500641	0.00353689051028061	0.024384592059358	0.00863139867627225	-0.941150197010449	0.087160218154847	0.173967978405465	0.0349878767794467	0.0972506638854676	0.0151756464276342	-0.0820750174570192	0.00832981631534272	-0.895257718334597	0.0894548420827146	0.168621366035082	0.0469172368080131	0.081027653416399	0.0149276188440128	-0.0661000345730916	0.00601350128903129	-0.690680360005569	0.0996837100062153	0.15484686437619	0.0975145747172151	-0.00870709347651211	0.0117727507527587	0.0204798442316611	0.00787526250897188	0.246144032279594	0.146524929614134	0.194810272484869	0.0521221340558286	-0.174572788686533	-0.00233656679264338	0.17223622189364	0.0205795870722267	1.42212617978521	0.205324036977705	0.404033350853372	-0.00972347693738335	-0.130917172947831	0.0233115163204789	0.154228689251709	0.00902142402703232	-0.933173920097724	0.087559031966733	0.11726650611612	0.0361453320109232	0.101301377458218	0.0213096732704032	-0.0799917041868619	0.00868571540577462	-0.887509697611255	0.0898422431202528	0.113382847951127	0.0480365141604814	0.0848649396565704	0.0208108323174805	-0.0640541073388354	0.00717722172873899	-0.682477274678817	0.100093864267681	0.101244009602541	0.098520080814632	-0.00532309115410801	0.0173662963015686	0.0226893874557009	0.0103454135524055	0.267124742934866	0.147573965146086	0.1282827502606	0.0526396465084956	-0.168764646731295	0.00741606090696734	0.176180707636257	0.0215783524164501	1.47464488959012	0.207949973454102	0.285667489155306	-0.00993658289586001	-0.12258654050783	0.0368811517280743	0.15946769309221	0.00179760751945551	-0.925601291836864	0.087937663410198	0.0290265201160711	0.0368488516380561	0.0942368009331451	0.0166203642033291	-0.0776164367446694	0.00171971380604199	-0.880169674891329	0.090209244256001	0.0279818424810063	0.0486569532848863	0.0779748432793048	0.0161823422797858	-0.061792500999551	0.00148074332116795	-0.674664048685647	0.100484525565769	0.024807355660672	0.0989046692601994	-0.0105938461419486	0.0141136626394478	0.0247075087815437	0.0029211908108438	0.285974073069328	0.148516431648682	0.036269093428265	0.0528227783456591	-0.169211656380058	0.00987838877829494	0.179090045158465	0.00565598621842852	1.51897419937233	0.2101664379494	0.0914580704275636	-0.0103291858869206	-0.132743592429313	0.0287615795611096	0.161505171714917	-0.000135667993197359	-0.927246722108482	0.0878553904711588	-0.000859153413529379	0.0365230089853882	0.0819810903842866	0.0041150844854454	-0.0778660057466997	-0.000136386477012018	-0.881817681269576	0.0901268439339908	-0.000883761246134318	0.0483253528462451	0.0660721976291412	0.0040081440522477	-0.0620640535744338	-0.000126914026119574	-0.676074257877313	0.100414015096595	-0.000835741550880842	0.0985936932298273	-0.0208477015500641	0.00353689051028061	0.024384592059358	0.000166641428037199	0.287125934621479	0.148574024709358	0.00227319742043264	0.0526708838982177	-0.176533795386852	0.00246470798320742	0.178998503369607	0.000402050776610738	1.52123854541124	0.210279655336088	0.0107169392437489	-0.0106895273652959	-0.153599168980245	0.00598360514676988	0.159582774119171	-3.72E-05	-0.92814701620087	0.0878103613103365	-0.000500745061710051	0.0364000461643916	0.0786376900158925	0.000531515214130529	-0.0781061831123173	-3.67E-05	-0.882706975167807	0.0900823792353789	-0.000494194925343416	0.0482038731131294	0.0628204230282203	0.000517870112737295	-0.0623025529183245	-3.34E-05	-0.676904342806373	0.100372510851665	-0.000448350412324272	0.0984854557246941	-0.0236970764755762	0.000458416463111622	0.0241554929359768	4.55E-06	0.286650390962362	0.148550247281021	1.67E-05	0.0526159831646049	-0.178537151603331	0.000313561989895295	0.178850713616176	3.35E-05	1.52001718033987	0.21021858721384	0.00109964395913487	-0.0107753223286252	-0.158403546742553	0.000671089099757438	0.159074635850233	0.00079785143671008	-0.925059579994553	0.0879647490117819	-0.18738973357163	0.0368783524367042	0.0867456734713723	0.00936271805134781	-0.0773829554177435	0.000496889767560574	-0.879041282069137	0.0902656638960275	-0.192697322361551	0.0487456411723256	0.0705103712881183	0.00910914514564154	-0.0614012261428565	-0.00180374895218296	-0.67226894869688	0.100604280575634	-0.206272108619476	0.0988533018302691	-0.0193926530335675	0.00591529298542004	0.0253079460246329	0.000186175790343213	0.27566937646647	0.148001196823233	-0.164866465424524	0.0523196392583077	-0.185024660339855	-0.008220364719419	0.176804295620169	0.0131490434475964	1.47058119224175	0.207746787601271	0.0490849982986097	-0.0101987183223383	-0.139031824743724	0.0183278912574192
Parameters:upsilon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Parameters:psi-tau	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Parameters:psi-g	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Cost of borrowing shock: with and without pass-through

Panel (row;column), Years	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid red line with solid red circle markers : (2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid green line with solid green square markers :(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;4), Primary balance-to-GDP Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;1), Output growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;2), Government debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;3), Interest rate on government debt Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(1;4), Household debt-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;1), Primary expenditure growth % deviation from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;2), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio Percentage points from steady state	Solid grey line:(2;3), Tax rate (also revenue-to-GDP ratio) Percentage points from steady state
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10	0.0205795870722267	1.42212617978521	0.205324036977705	0.404033350853372	-0.00972347693738335	-0.130917172947831	0.0233115163204789	0.154228689251709	0.0131490434475964	1.47058119224175	0.207746787601271	0.0490849982986097	-0.0101987183223383	-0.139031824743724	0.0183278912574192	0.157359715982621	0.00863139867627225	-0.941150197010449	0.087160218154847	0.173967978405465	0.0349878767794467	0.0972506638854676	0.0151756464276342	-0.0820750174570192	0.00832981631534272	-0.895257718334597	0.0894548420827146	0.168621366035082	0.0469172368080131	0.081027653416399	0.0149276188440128	-0.0661000345730916	0.00601350128903129	-0.690680360005569	0.0996837100062153	0.15484686437619	0.0975145747172151	-0.00870709347651211	0.0117727507527587	0.0204798442316611	0.00787526250897188	0.246144032279594	0.146524929614134	0.194810272484869	0.0521221340558286	-0.174572788686533	-0.00233656679264338	0.17223622189364	0.0205795870722267	1.42212617978521	0.205324036977705	0.404033350853372	-0.00972347693738335	-0.130917172947831	0.0233115163204789	0.154228689251709	0.00902142402703232	-0.933173920097724	0.087559031966733	0.11726650611612	0.0361453320109232	0.101301377458218	0.0213096732704032	-0.0799917041868619	0.00868571540577462	-0.887509697611255	0.0898422431202528	0.113382847951127	0.0480365141604814	0.0848649396565704	0.0208108323174805	-0.0640541073388354	0.00717722172873899	-0.682477274678817	0.100093864267681	0.101244009602541	0.098520080814632	-0.00532309115410801	0.0173662963015686	0.0226893874557009	0.0103454135524055	0.267124742934866	0.147573965146086	0.1282827502606	0.0526396465084956	-0.168764646731295	0.00741606090696734	0.176180707636257	0.0215783524164501	1.47464488959012	0.207949973454102	0.285667489155306	-0.00993658289586001	-0.12258654050783	0.0368811517280743	0.15946769309221	0.00179760751945551	-0.925601291836864	0.087937663410198	0.0290265201160711	0.0368488516380561	0.0942368009331451	0.0166203642033291	-0.0776164367446694	0.00171971380604199	-0.880169674891329	0.090209244256001	0.0279818424810063	0.0486569532848863	0.0779748432793048	0.0161823422797858	-0.061792500999551	0.00148074332116795	-0.674664048685647	0.100484525565769	0.024807355660672	0.0989046692601994	-0.0105938461419486	0.0141136626394478	0.0247075087815437	0.0029211908108438	0.285974073069328	0.148516431648682	0.036269093428265	0.0528227783456591	-0.169211656380058	0.00987838877829494	0.179090045158465	0.00565598621842852	1.51897419937233	0.2101664379494	0.0914580704275636	-0.0103291858869206	-0.132743592429313	0.0287615795611096	0.161505171714917	-0.000135667993197359	-0.927246722108482	0.0878553904711588	-0.000859153413529379	0.0365230089853882	0.0819810903842866	0.0041150844854454	-0.0778660057466997	-0.000136386477012018	-0.881817681269576	0.0901268439339908	-0.000883761246134318	0.0483253528462451	0.0660721976291412	0.0040081440522477	-0.0620640535744338	-0.000126914026119574	-0.676074257877313	0.100414015096595	-0.000835741550880842	0.0985936932298273	-0.0208477015500641	0.00353689051028061	0.024384592059358	0.000166641428037199	0.287125934621479	0.148574024709358	0.00227319742043264	0.0526708838982177	-0.176533795386852	0.00246470798320742	0.178998503369607	0.000402050776610738	1.52123854541124	0.210279655336088	0.0107169392437489	-0.0106895273652959	-0.153599168980245	0.00598360514676988	0.159582774119171	-3.72E-05	-0.92814701620087	0.0878103613103365	-0.000500745061710051	0.0364000461643916	0.0786376900158925	0.000531515214130529	-0.0781061831123173	-3.67E-05	-0.882706975167807	0.0900823792353789	-0.000494194925343416	0.0482038731131294	0.0628204230282203	0.000517870112737295	-0.0623025529183245	-3.34E-05	-0.676904342806373	0.100372510851665	-0.000448350412324272	0.0984854557246941	-0.0236970764755762	0.000458416463111622	0.0241554929359768	4.55E-06	0.286650390962362	0.148550247281021	1.67E-05	0.0526159831646049	-0.178537151603331	0.000313561989895295	0.178850713616176	3.35E-05	1.52001718033987	0.21021858721384	0.00109964395913487	-0.0107753223286252	-0.158403546742553	0.000671089099757438	0.159074635850233	0.00079785143671008	-0.925059579994553	0.0879647490117819	-0.18738973357163	0.0368783524367042	0.0867456734713723	0.00936271805134781	-0.0773829554177435	0.000496889767560574	-0.879041282069137	0.0902656638960275	-0.192697322361551	0.0487456411723256	0.0705103712881183	0.00910914514564154	-0.0614012261428565	-0.00180374895218296	-0.67226894869688	0.100604280575634	-0.206272108619476	0.0988533018302691	-0.0193926530335675	0.00591529298542004	0.0253079460246329	0.000186175790343213	0.27566937646647	0.148001196823233	-0.164866465424524	0.0523196392583077	-0.185024660339855	-0.008220364719419	0.176804295620169	0.0131490434475964	1.47058119224175	0.207746787601271	0.0490849982986097	-0.0101987183223383	-0.139031824743724	0.0183278912574192
Parameters:upsilon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Parameters:psi-tau	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Parameters:psi-g	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	500	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000	5000

Return to Figure 3

Figure 5: Responses to 1 p.p.t. increase in cost of borrowing

Panel (row;column), Years	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio: 14th percentile	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio: 14th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio: 50th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio: 86th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate: 14th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate: 50th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate: 86th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:14th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:50th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:86th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal): 14th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal): 50th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal): 86th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):14th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):50th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):86th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio: 14th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio: 50th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio: 86th percentile
0	-1.90E-05	-6.00E-06	1.70E-05	-1.10E-05	4.00E-06	1.10E-05	-1.40E-05	6.00E-06	1.50E-05	-3.70E-05	-1.60E-05	2.80E-05	1	1	1	0.999965	1.000011	1.000039	-2.10E-05	1.00E-05	2.50E-05	-2.10E-05	1.00E-05	2.50E-05	0.499963	0.499995	0.500031
1	-0.150368	-0.055148	0.035313	-0.063608	0.00478	0.071931	-0.015873	0.080448	0.174895	-0.103342	0.002728	0.11164	0.754061	0.799644	0.845075	0.577668	0.716066	0.860115	-0.032927	0.059928	0.151453	-0.032905	0.059938	0.151449	0.68441	0.801681	0.923201
2	-0.142136	-0.063964	0.01643	-0.007138	0.061621	0.130578	-0.06445	-0.006542	0.050431	-0.095975	-0.017959	0.059482	0.647801	0.687543	0.72655	0.616414	0.712302	0.810194	0.059775	0.125585	0.194656	0.041057	0.185523	0.330092	0.849852	1.037991	1.234223
3	-0.160996	-0.063882	0.034945	0.031728	0.109001	0.187389	-0.074005	-0.018902	0.035092	-0.122777	-0.044247	0.036042	0.540599	0.584104	0.628254	0.550168	0.647744	0.751611	0.100552	0.172883	0.245761	0.160224	0.358406	0.558944	0.939605	1.195768	1.445496
4	-0.168179	-0.055131	0.056346	0.057055	0.140808	0.228606	-0.069333	-0.020325	0.027311	-0.149403	-0.064754	0.022116	0.442338	0.490817	0.539178	0.4744	0.576465	0.684807	0.118442	0.195939	0.274135	0.293664	0.554345	0.802828	0.953571	1.29505	1.631782
5	-0.163651	-0.045825	0.076901	0.069508	0.164066	0.259	-0.063226	-0.01865	0.025316	-0.171391	-0.080454	0.007641	0.354919	0.408537	0.461042	0.401495	0.508221	0.614317	0.131416	0.209891	0.286915	0.445055	0.764236	1.094926	0.935727	1.345979	1.765101
6	-0.157102	-0.035957	0.095827	0.08265	0.180721	0.280343	-0.056007	-0.016319	0.023488	-0.179873	-0.091417	-0.007507	0.280711	0.336983	0.392011	0.341677	0.445269	0.55001	0.141837	0.216678	0.29035	0.608384	0.980914	1.356676	0.891873	1.358083	1.861645
7	-0.152741	-0.026132	0.10741	0.088237	0.192025	0.297002	-0.049705	-0.013972	0.020799	-0.184614	-0.098355	-0.018252	0.217921	0.275149	0.333181	0.291186	0.387976	0.487094	0.153531	0.218157	0.284747	0.755789	1.19907	1.633131	0.816752	1.339352	1.908154
8	-0.140567	-0.01636	0.118475	0.091852	0.198874	0.307006	-0.043662	-0.01194	0.020354	-0.187431	-0.102291	-0.02516	0.16554	0.222102	0.280984	0.240048	0.336777	0.43496	0.154775	0.215234	0.274708	0.934969	1.414304	1.881658	0.72914	1.297193	1.924397
9	-0.13138	-0.006709	0.127495	0.088489	0.202014	0.313992	-0.036193	-0.010259	0.01807	-0.182705	-0.103995	-0.028942	0.11907	0.176899	0.234033	0.198911	0.291541	0.385952	0.156119	0.208724	0.260341	1.109634	1.623028	2.127784	0.612916	1.238201	1.896544
10	-0.119673	0.002746	0.135323	0.087743	0.202091	0.317354	-0.032267	-0.008923	0.016669	-0.182695	-0.104062	-0.029664	0.0816	0.138633	0.193802	0.162989	0.251955	0.34545	0.152319	0.199345	0.246954	1.301589	1.822373	2.352038	0.533714	1.168133	1.852104

Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: Sensitivity to initial Debt-to-GDP ratio

Panel (row;column), Years	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio: 20%	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio: 50% baseline	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio: 140%	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:20%	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50% baseline	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:140%	(1;2), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:20%	(1;2), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50% baseline	(1;2), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:140%	(2;2), Debt-to-GDP ratio:20%	(2;2), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50% baseline	(2;2), Debt-to-GDP ratio:140%	(1;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesPrimary expenditure-to-GDP ratio: 14th percentile	(1;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesPrimary expenditure-to-GDP ratio: 50th percentile	(1;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesPrimary expenditure-to-GDP ratio: 86th percentile	(2;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesRevenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesRevenue-to-GDP ratio50th percentile	(2;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesRevenue-to-GDP ratio86th percentile	(1;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesPrimary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesPrimary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesPrimary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesDebt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesDebt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(2;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responsesDebt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile
0	-2.00E-06	-6.00E-06	0.00E+00	1.00E-06	4.00E-06	-1.00E-06	4.00E-06	1.00E-05	-1.00E-06	2.00E-01	5.00E-01	1.40E+00	-1.90E-05	-6.00E-06	1.70E-05	-1.10E-05	4.00E-06	1.10E-05	-2.10E-05	1.00E-05	2.50E-05	0.499963	0.499995	0.500031
1	-0.044959	-0.055148	-0.084303	0.003894	0.00478	0.020099	0.048853	0.059928	0.104403	0.299982	0.801681	2.205844	-0.150368	-0.055148	0.035313	-0.063608	0.00478	0.071931	-0.032927	0.059928	0.151453	0.68441	0.801681	0.923201
2	-0.041165	-0.063964	-0.1251	0.056311	0.061621	0.09059	0.097477	0.125585	0.215691	0.366375	1.037991	2.789582	-0.142136	-0.063964	0.01643	-0.007138	0.061621	0.130578	0.059775	0.125585	0.194656	0.849852	1.037991	1.234223
3	-0.027044	-0.063882	-0.160715	0.096922	0.109001	0.151573	0.123966	0.172883	0.312287	0.412099	1.195768	3.079942	-0.160996	-0.063882	0.034945	0.031728	0.109001	0.187389	0.100552	0.172883	0.245761	0.939605	1.195768	1.445496
4	-0.004198	-0.055131	-0.18182	0.122407	0.140808	0.196139	0.126605	0.195939	0.377959	0.459245	1.29505	3.139325	-0.168179	-0.055131	0.056346	0.057055	0.140808	0.228606	0.118442	0.195939	0.274135	0.953571	1.29505	1.631782
5	0.017076	-0.045825	-0.193786	0.139932	0.164066	0.229566	0.122856	0.209891	0.423352	0.512244	1.345979	3.031814	-0.163651	-0.045825	0.076901	0.069508	0.164066	0.259	0.131416	0.209891	0.286915	0.935727	1.345979	1.765101
6	0.035752	-0.035957	-0.195021	0.15177	0.180721	0.252785	0.116018	0.216678	0.447805	0.571205	1.358083	2.816795	-0.157102	-0.035957	0.095827	0.08265	0.180721	0.280343	0.141837	0.216678	0.29035	0.891873	1.358083	1.861645
7	0.050659	-0.026132	-0.186625	0.159525	0.192025	0.266927	0.108866	0.218157	0.453553	0.63285	1.339352	2.540799	-0.152741	-0.026132	0.10741	0.088237	0.192025	0.297002	0.153531	0.218157	0.284747	0.816752	1.339352	1.908154
8	0.061672	-0.01636	-0.170114	0.164247	0.198874	0.27322	0.102575	0.215234	0.443334	0.692848	1.297193	2.23866	-0.140567	-0.01636	0.118475	0.091852	0.198874	0.307006	0.154775	0.215234	0.274708	0.72914	1.297193	1.924397
9	0.069015	-0.006709	-0.147505	0.166667	0.202014	0.27299	0.097652	0.208724	0.420495	0.746856	1.238201	1.934917	-0.13138	-0.006709	0.127495	0.088489	0.202014	0.313992	0.156119	0.208724	0.260341	0.612916	1.238201	1.896544
10	0.073159	0.002746	-0.120882	0.167303	0.202091	0.267564	0.094144	0.199345	0.388446	0.791275	1.168133	1.646078	-0.119673	0.002746	0.135323	0.087743	0.202091	0.317354	0.152319	0.199345	0.246954	0.533714	1.168133	1.852104

Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: No debt and no interest rate feedback

Panel (rowcolumn), Years	(11), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:No interest rate feedback	(11), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:Baseline	(11), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:No debt feedback	(21), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:No interest rate feedback	(21), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:Baseline	(21), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:No debt feedback	(12), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:No interest rate feedback	(12), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:Baseline	(12), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:No debt feedback	(22), Debt-to-GDP ratio:No interest rate feedback	(22), Debt-to-GDP ratio:Baseline	(22), Debt-to-GDP ratio:No debt feedback	(1;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responses:: Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio: 14th percentile	(1;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responses:: Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio: 50th percentile	(1;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responses:: Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio: 86th percentile	(2;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responses: Revenue-to-GDP ratio: 14th percentile	(2;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responses: Revenue-to-GDP ratio: 50th percentile	(2;1), 5-variable VAR impulse responses: Revenue-to-GDP ratio: 86th percentile	(1;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responses: Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responses: Primary balance-to-GDP ratio	(1;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responses: Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responses: Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responses: Debt-to-GDP ratio	(2;2), 5-variable VAR impulse responses: Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile
0	-2.00E-06	-6.00E-06	2.00E-06	2.00E-06	4.00E-06	-2.00E-06	4.00E-06	1.00E-05	-3.00E-06	5.00E-01	5.00E-01	5.00E-01	-1.90E-05	-6.00E-06	1.70E-05	-1.10E-05	4.00E-06	1.10E-05	-2.10E-05	1.00E-05	2.50E-05	0.499963	0.499995	0.500031
1	-0.051803	-0.055148	-0.041964	0.008749	0.00478	0.001978	0.060552	0.059928	0.043942	0.795415	0.801681	0.815541	-0.150368	-0.055148	0.035313	-0.063608	0.00478	0.071931	-0.032927	0.059928	0.151453	0.68441	0.801681	0.923201
2	-0.086341	-0.063964	-0.029823	0.016035	0.061621	0.05285	0.102376	0.125585	0.082673	1.055333	1.037991	1.094067	-0.142136	-0.063964	0.01643	-0.007138	0.061621	0.130578	0.059775	0.125585	0.194656	0.849852	1.037991	1.234223
3	-0.120888	-0.063882	-0.009629	0.027054	0.109001	0.092649	0.147942	0.172883	0.102278	1.241367	1.195768	1.31933	-0.160996	-0.063882	0.034945	0.031728	0.109001	0.187389	0.100552	0.172883	0.245761	0.939605	1.195768	1.445496
4	-0.144563	-0.055131	0.018738	0.031412	0.140808	0.117531	0.175975	0.195939	0.098793	1.358894	1.29505	1.510428	-0.168179	-0.055131	0.056346	0.057055	0.140808	0.228606	0.118442	0.195939	0.274135	0.953571	1.29505	1.631782
5	-0.164711	-0.045825	0.045404	0.034966	0.164066	0.134675	0.199677	0.209891	0.089271	1.41008	1.345979	1.673859	-0.163651	-0.045825	0.076901	0.069508	0.164066	0.259	0.131416	0.209891	0.286915	0.935727	1.345979	1.765101
6	-0.179241	-0.035957	0.069709	0.038115	0.180721	0.146099	0.217356	0.216678	0.07639	1.402279	1.358083	1.814766	-0.157102	-0.035957	0.095827	0.08265	0.180721	0.280343	0.141837	0.216678	0.29035	0.891873	1.358083	1.861645
7	-0.188252	-0.026132	0.090686	0.040741	0.192025	0.153279	0.228993	0.218157	0.062593	1.34454	1.339352	1.936289	-0.152741	-0.026132	0.10741	0.088237	0.192025	0.297002	0.153531	0.218157	0.284747	0.816752	1.339352	1.908154
8	-0.191668	-0.01636	0.108257	0.042604	0.198874	0.157239	0.234272	0.215234	0.048982	1.247553	1.297193	2.040886	-0.140567	-0.01636	0.118475	0.091852	0.198874	0.307006	0.154775	0.215234	0.274708	0.72914	1.297193	1.924397
9	-0.189878	-0.006709	0.122515	0.043528	0.202014	0.158755	0.233406	0.208724	0.03624	1.122275	1.238201	2.130452	-0.13138	-0.006709	0.127495	0.088489	0.202014	0.313992	0.156119	0.208724	0.260341	0.612916	1.238201	1.896544
10	-0.18348	0.002746	0.133704	0.043409	0.202091	0.158428	0.226888	0.199345	0.024724	0.979206	1.168133	2.206537	-0.119673	0.002746	0.135323	0.087743	0.202091	0.317354	0.152319	0.199345	0.246954	0.533714	1.168133	1.852104

Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: Heterogeneity across sub-samples

Panel (row;column), Years	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Post-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	A. Maastricht Treaty: Pre-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	B. Political constraints: 7 least politically constrainted countriesPost-1992 period (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;2), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	C. Government indebtedness: 7 countries with least indebted governments (1;4), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile
0	-1.00E-05	1.00E-06	1.10E-05	-8.00E-06	-1.00E-06	9.00E-06	-1.60E-05	-1.00E-06	1.50E-05	0.49998	0.5	0.500025	-4.60E-05	2.00E-06	4.40E-05	-1.90E-05	-1.00E-06	1.80E-05	-5.00E-05	-2.00E-06	6.00E-05	0.49992	0.500004	0.500066	-1.30E-05	-2.00E-06	1.40E-05	-1.00E-05	2.00E-06	1.10E-05	-2.10E-05	4.00E-06	1.80E-05	0.499972	0.5	0.500032	-2.00E-05	0.00E+00	2.20E-05	-1.10E-05	-1.00E-06	1.10E-05	-2.80E-05	-1.00E-06	2.90E-05	0.499961	0.499998	0.500038	-3.10E-05	-9.00E-06	2.60E-05	-1.40E-05	5.00E-06	1.40E-05	-3.10E-05	1.40E-05	3.70E-05	0.499952	0.49999	0.500047	-1.00E-05	-1.00E-06	1.00E-05	-8.00E-06	2.00E-06	1.00E-05	-1.50E-05	3.00E-06	1.50E-05	0.499977	0.499998	0.500021
1	-0.117048	-0.014303	0.082853	-0.101071	-0.015054	0.07189	-0.097284	-0.000751	0.09043	0.519084	0.664878	0.809306	-0.94331	-0.612175	-0.276504	-0.265132	-0.097458	0.071011	0.162941	0.514716	0.860902	-0.046569	0.360592	0.743052	-0.198032	-0.104178	-0.006938	-0.128266	-0.039987	0.048808	-0.047571	0.064191	0.171709	0.872658	1.013897	1.163589	-0.019792	0.129591	0.289128	-0.009417	0.095269	0.199148	-0.19536	-0.034322	0.130713	0.497066	0.707192	0.928174	-0.186733	0.027613	0.237851	-0.019642	0.111751	0.237434	-0.131869	0.084138	0.301312	0.296706	0.549782	0.810462	-0.162752	-0.075365	0.005971	-0.128273	-0.051099	0.025482	-0.06386	0.024266	0.115011	0.785377	0.909646	1.035561
2	-0.132195	-0.04666	0.045052	-0.035192	0.043568	0.125759	0.01428	0.090227	0.166697	0.523174	0.702278	0.901248	-0.670119	-0.429431	-0.175664	-0.376209	-0.197227	-0.01548	-0.015037	0.232205	0.46106	-0.39563	0.281922	0.981224	-0.268665	-0.16017	-0.052194	-0.121119	-0.022483	0.079794	0.034111	0.137687	0.242573	1.151358	1.430975	1.703372	0.069637	0.183845	0.291526	0.149727	0.250904	0.343769	-0.040198	0.067059	0.169118	0.616767	0.91496	1.226372	0.038123	0.177031	0.32362	0.164631	0.279229	0.388072	-0.036359	0.102198	0.2347	0.417295	0.784235	1.165076	-0.277547	-0.182359	-0.094271	-0.14673	-0.05749	0.03123	0.051692	0.124869	0.203442	0.905313	1.129565	1.336562
3	-0.159886	-0.051129	0.058209	-0.018186	0.076112	0.169216	0.050843	0.127241	0.205667	0.486996	0.721552	0.981961	-0.917698	-0.611421	-0.301885	-0.392668	-0.22913	-0.06288	0.112672	0.382291	0.653398	-1.144034	-0.139699	0.893885	-0.339202	-0.219904	-0.10402	-0.113152	-0.005379	0.107931	0.112618	0.214524	0.31783	1.322821	1.712631	2.102694	0.160177	0.299767	0.44229	0.237362	0.355546	0.466562	-0.061835	0.055779	0.172578	0.701847	1.115999	1.52877	0.107043	0.276648	0.454249	0.237402	0.361401	0.488222	-0.069103	0.084753	0.236698	0.498051	1.006237	1.555536	-0.371007	-0.258699	-0.152376	-0.151805	-0.051401	0.05047	0.125657	0.207298	0.292917	0.902595	1.211002	1.499256
4	-0.16709	-0.050611	0.070044	-0.025162	0.075774	0.180634	0.056508	0.126385	0.198468	0.410518	0.732264	1.054457	-0.953964	-0.653708	-0.352315	-0.371105	-0.21691	-0.065679	0.175367	0.436798	0.701091	-2.049528	-0.713551	0.669808	-0.405788	-0.275186	-0.134631	-0.122328	0.003129	0.130034	0.166875	0.278315	0.383988	1.382328	1.867536	2.372211	0.236686	0.399052	0.563267	0.299946	0.425759	0.555007	-0.082854	0.026707	0.145739	0.804742	1.341856	1.857641	0.186245	0.378748	0.574855	0.295588	0.432671	0.574242	-0.097091	0.053923	0.209441	0.611359	1.272604	1.957756	-0.431498	-0.303934	-0.178724	-0.170698	-0.049816	0.061792	0.167842	0.254118	0.340278	0.811589	1.190988	1.552292
5	-0.178685	-0.058766	0.066276	-0.039026	0.068015	0.180176	0.063209	0.126781	0.195213	0.355793	0.727093	1.101634	-1.012222	-0.719886	-0.434979	-0.347183	-0.198458	-0.054416	0.282313	0.521428	0.764609	-3.058733	-1.413313	0.202262	-0.474594	-0.322486	-0.173045	-0.127346	0.008864	0.144248	0.226676	0.331349	0.435425	1.344849	1.911802	2.510605	0.293231	0.472408	0.662723	0.341132	0.478915	0.619964	-0.100263	0.006507	0.120985	0.910732	1.579505	2.192893	0.239426	0.444965	0.665005	0.334479	0.488848	0.640868	-0.108894	0.043883	0.192898	0.701	1.552562	2.4095	-0.469181	-0.324742	-0.182974	-0.185429	-0.051502	0.077874	0.188601	0.27324	0.353994	0.657302	1.102624	1.552351
6	-0.19219	-0.072978	0.049295	-0.048387	0.056712	0.163259	0.071528	0.129689	0.19129	0.285352	0.706508	1.132731	-0.96214	-0.679982	-0.402653	-0.30708	-0.178657	-0.04969	0.272051	0.501325	0.716806	-3.954367	-2.091082	-0.279939	-0.531737	-0.358578	-0.197677	-0.133866	0.011464	0.155096	0.2691	0.370042	0.48257	1.214037	1.865848	2.566493	0.33268	0.527112	0.730325	0.372378	0.520852	0.676322	-0.11041	-0.00626	0.099495	1.073637	1.826917	2.526434	0.291509	0.503503	0.733607	0.365651	0.530586	0.688753	-0.124599	0.027083	0.179933	0.861321	1.848916	2.861973	-0.480082	-0.328292	-0.176666	-0.195561	-0.055117	0.084257	0.197832	0.273175	0.348711	0.447926	0.971232	1.483374
7	-0.202362	-0.089016	0.036873	-0.060417	0.040872	0.14489	0.073778	0.129888	0.188424	0.180967	0.670631	1.14703	-0.840287	-0.601746	-0.35058	-0.277865	-0.164782	-0.043268	0.244409	0.436964	0.622483	-4.644975	-2.685475	-0.75553	-0.556085	-0.382573	-0.205424	-0.138515	0.01085	0.1635	0.294742	0.393423	0.49941	1.030016	1.750179	2.48383	0.356569	0.565202	0.785606	0.39117	0.553367	0.717631	-0.101442	-0.011835	0.08187	1.220812	2.0735	2.853069	0.323518	0.53985	0.77458	0.386858	0.561102	0.729888	-0.110941	0.021252	0.158297	1.014028	2.141526	3.306713	-0.481152	-0.31985	-0.158014	-0.205206	-0.059332	0.08536	0.190666	0.260518	0.336044	0.23478	0.816763	1.382803
8	-0.216274	-0.104997	0.006066	-0.074451	0.023265	0.118762	0.072468	0.128261	0.183853	0.103334	0.619431	1.11425	-0.684	-0.472533	-0.245418	-0.253806	-0.154765	-0.048445	0.130544	0.317769	0.498098	-5.11449	-3.131539	-1.141737	-0.566502	-0.394634	-0.208859	-0.143396	0.007258	0.169374	0.306358	0.401892	0.498407	0.79344	1.583968	2.354232	0.37132	0.588932	0.813803	0.408221	0.577639	0.748744	-0.095683	-0.011293	0.071776	1.394389	2.311041	3.160876	0.340123	0.562833	0.797651	0.397753	0.582904	0.75963	-0.094434	0.020071	0.141363	1.212141	2.423178	3.689084	-0.482348	-0.303401	-0.135671	-0.224823	-0.063674	0.088614	0.169949	0.239727	0.304673	0.059048	0.654436	1.256538
9	-0.226763	-0.119132	-0.018595	-0.084696	0.005888	0.096029	0.070347	0.12502	0.180024	0.03012	0.554348	1.082948	-0.533506	-0.332245	-0.121997	-0.240599	-0.147572	-0.050907	0.008328	0.184673	0.375024	-5.346829	-3.412055	-1.399984	-0.565915	-0.395713	-0.212782	-0.155527	0.001312	0.161338	0.299559	0.397025	0.494602	0.527366	1.384328	2.170267	0.381127	0.599005	0.835133	0.415347	0.594842	0.777009	-0.083828	-0.004163	0.070322	1.588335	2.530127	3.401837	0.341723	0.570101	0.805265	0.406421	0.596857	0.787935	-0.080712	0.026756	0.132835	1.408319	2.680585	4.008249	-0.464763	-0.282076	-0.103777	-0.236081	-0.067992	0.092738	0.149588	0.214085	0.275014	-0.104293	0.495367	1.104448
10	-0.222075	-0.129876	-0.031824	-0.09508	-0.010079	0.073203	0.063832	0.119797	0.176906	-0.03862	0.478046	1.024381	-0.395158	-0.186495	0.006097	-0.227167	-0.140444	-0.047585	-0.144344	0.046051	0.249549	-5.433199	-3.519365	-1.606429	-0.559139	-0.387159	-0.206458	-0.164404	-0.006255	0.158631	0.281806	0.380904	0.476748	0.293799	1.166111	1.970524	0.373653	0.597212	0.832141	0.421001	0.605921	0.793328	-0.066889	0.008708	0.081485	1.704468	2.723095	3.707596	0.334826	0.56539	0.796532	0.407832	0.604393	0.803413	-0.055605	0.039003	0.136529	1.563639	2.905534	4.31254	-0.445915	-0.258349	-0.078673	-0.246275	-0.072216	0.093234	0.125605	0.186134	0.241749	-0.263765	0.347117	0.964596

Return to Figure 8

Figure 9: Impulse Responses to a Cost of Borrowing Shock

Panel (row;column), Years	8-variable VAR impulse responses(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses (2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses (2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses (2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(3;1), Stock-flow adjustment:14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(3;1), Stock-flow adjustment:50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(3;1), Stock-flow adjustment:86th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(4;1), Output growth rate:14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(4;1), Output growth rate:50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(4;1), Output growth rate:86th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(4;1), Output growth rate:14th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(4;1), Output growth rate:50th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(4;1), Output growth rate:86th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(1;2), Inflation rate:14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(1;2), Inflation rate:50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(1;2), Inflation rate:86th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(1;2), Inflation rate:14th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(1;2), Inflation rate:50th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(1;2), Inflation rate:86th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):86th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):14th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):50th percentile	Cost of Borrowing (nominal):86th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(3;2), Short-term interest rate:14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(3;2), Short-term interest rate:50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(3;2), Short-term interest rate:86th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(4;2), Long-term interest rate:14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(4;2), Long-term interest rate:50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(4;2), Long-term interest rate:86th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(1;3), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(1;3), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(1;3), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):86th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(1;3), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):14th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(1;3), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):50th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(1;3), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):86th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(2;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(2;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(2;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(2;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(2;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(2;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(3;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(3;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(3;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(3;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(3;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(3;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(4;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(4;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	8-variable VAR impulse responses(4;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(4;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(4;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	5-variable VAR impulse responses(4;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile
0	-4.53E-04	-1.01E-04	3.11E-04	-1.90E-05	-6.00E-06	1.70E-05	-1.99E-04	-1.20E-05	1.56E-04	-1.10E-05	4.00E-06	1.10E-05	-1.60E-05	-4.00E-06	1.50E-05	-1.91E-04	-1.00E-06	1.71E-04	-1.40E-05	6.00E-06	1.50E-05	-0.000201	2.80E-05	0.000321	-3.70E-05	-1.60E-05	2.80E-05	1	1	1	1	1	1	-5.82E-01	-5.06E-01	-4.35E-01	3.00E-01	3.47E-01	3.95E-01	0.999657	0.999973	1.000271	0.999965	1.000011	1.000039	-0.000362	8.90E-05	0.000494	-2.10E-05	1.00E-05	2.50E-05	-0.000362	8.90E-05	0.000494	-2.10E-05	1.00E-05	2.50E-05	0.499462	0.499893	0.500321	0.499963	0.499995	0.500031
1	-0.166402	-0.05179	0.064592	-0.150368	-0.055148	0.035313	-0.1166	-0.036953	0.050391	-0.063608	0.00478	0.071931	0.075036	0.227337	0.384452	-0.093496	0.017944	0.122871	-0.015873	0.080448	0.174895	0.009047	0.145374	0.280473	-0.103342	0.002728	0.11164	0.955978	1.007385	1.060721	0.754061	0.799644	0.845075	-0.375502	-0.234283	-0.094995	0.280824	0.387365	0.493521	0.661791	0.842957	1.007495	0.577668	0.716066	0.860115	-0.094921	0.014838	0.131054	-0.032927	0.059928	0.151453	-0.095442	0.014927	0.13129	-0.032905	0.059938	0.151449	0.929662	1.138084	1.34384	0.68441	0.801681	0.923201
2	-0.273949	-0.152056	-0.035421	-0.142136	-0.063964	0.01643	-0.099654	-0.004958	0.092118	-0.007138	0.061621	0.130578	0.124621	0.227792	0.32762	-0.123663	-0.043296	0.033535	-0.06445	-0.006542	0.050431	-0.026239	0.093244	0.213367	-0.095975	-0.017959	0.059482	0.824024	0.885567	0.94513	0.647801	0.687543	0.72655	-0.073027	0.072591	0.227099	0.291301	0.439105	0.582952	0.691699	0.835443	0.974868	0.616414	0.712302	0.810194	0.051107	0.147098	0.245733	0.059775	0.125585	0.194656	-0.039927	0.162025	0.363157	0.041057	0.185523	0.330092	1.303466	1.646094	1.978554	0.849852	1.037991	1.234223
3	-0.311875	-0.167354	-0.023594	-0.160996	-0.063882	0.034945	-0.067354	0.03729	0.140351	0.031728	0.109001	0.187389	0.108976	0.194227	0.287	-0.137827	-0.061068	0.021934	-0.074005	-0.018902	0.035092	-0.086871	0.035316	0.157206	-0.122777	-0.044247	0.036042	0.702087	0.767692	0.842326	0.540599	0.584104	0.628254	0.079089	0.241363	0.412434	0.282503	0.457597	0.6301	0.638581	0.793883	0.947574	0.550168	0.647744	0.751611	0.100723	0.204643	0.310395	0.100552	0.172883	0.245761	0.066582	0.366668	0.647699	0.160224	0.358406	0.558944	1.566605	2.045848	2.506871	0.939605	1.195768	1.445496
4	-0.352374	-0.185502	-0.014467	-0.168179	-0.055131	0.056346	-0.040209	0.074561	0.199188	0.057055	0.140808	0.228606	0.092615	0.170345	0.259317	-0.125259	-0.046328	0.033306	-0.069333	-0.020325	0.027311	-0.126425	-0.005546	0.12347	-0.149403	-0.064754	0.022116	0.578863	0.65028	0.730266	0.442338	0.490817	0.539178	0.125133	0.322581	0.522097	0.238722	0.449096	0.651597	0.551063	0.702741	0.867535	0.4744	0.576465	0.684807	0.140904	0.260063	0.37767	0.118442	0.195939	0.274135	0.251269	0.626731	1.001903	0.293664	0.554345	0.802828	1.712016	2.322121	2.907204	0.953571	1.29505	1.631782
5	-0.377049	-0.199668	-0.021325	-0.163651	-0.045825	0.076901	-0.029699	0.106249	0.242178	0.069508	0.164066	0.259	0.068312	0.138326	0.216641	-0.102752	-0.02599	0.049638	-0.063226	-0.01865	0.025316	-0.166841	-0.040103	0.080774	-0.171391	-0.080454	0.007641	0.463868	0.540113	0.619005	0.354919	0.408537	0.461042	0.126296	0.352048	0.5763	0.189302	0.424642	0.65061	0.454755	0.606819	0.769279	0.401495	0.508221	0.614317	0.186779	0.305917	0.425871	0.131416	0.209891	0.286915	0.448655	0.932648	1.392011	0.445055	0.764236	1.094926	1.732237	2.472369	3.183821	0.935727	1.345979	1.765101
6	-0.405049	-0.212544	-0.032187	-0.157102	-0.035957	0.095827	-0.010555	0.133419	0.278825	0.08265	0.180721	0.280343	0.048431	0.113568	0.18227	-0.077039	-0.008405	0.060881	-0.056007	-0.016319	0.023488	-0.192695	-0.062686	0.061309	-0.179873	-0.091417	-0.007507	0.358941	0.441768	0.52648	0.280711	0.336983	0.392011	0.112733	0.352895	0.588146	0.137167	0.392319	0.638932	0.36145	0.51343	0.6759	0.341677	0.445269	0.55001	0.226172	0.345963	0.463084	0.141837	0.216678	0.29035	0.706533	1.278611	1.84884	0.608384	0.980914	1.356676	1.676783	2.509803	3.326102	0.891873	1.358083	1.861645
7	-0.425635	-0.222866	-0.031182	-0.152741	-0.026132	0.10741	0.001785	0.155583	0.318128	0.088237	0.192025	0.297002	0.034426	0.094453	0.158077	-0.059893	0.004255	0.066062	-0.049705	-0.013972	0.020799	-0.207622	-0.076309	0.048627	-0.184614	-0.098355	-0.018252	0.270135	0.355993	0.442375	0.217921	0.275149	0.333181	0.09465	0.338829	0.586072	0.088456	0.357047	0.62613	0.275921	0.428554	0.588148	0.291186	0.387976	0.487094	0.265111	0.378449	0.485304	0.153531	0.218157	0.284747	1.008314	1.65706	2.335036	0.755789	1.19907	1.633131	1.554522	2.451324	3.363508	0.816752	1.339352	1.908154
8	-0.42892	-0.228208	-0.031886	-0.140567	-0.01636	0.118475	0.01766	0.172257	0.334325	0.091852	0.198874	0.307006	0.024161	0.080061	0.14128	-0.047221	0.012383	0.072166	-0.043662	-0.01194	0.020354	-0.210023	-0.083987	0.036539	-0.187431	-0.102291	-0.02516	0.193638	0.282509	0.370216	0.16554	0.222102	0.280984	0.060349	0.317202	0.580819	0.036338	0.321002	0.611578	0.206642	0.354556	0.51545	0.240048	0.336777	0.43496	0.286273	0.400465	0.505632	0.154775	0.215234	0.274708	1.343168	2.057524	2.784355	0.934969	1.414304	1.881658	1.367079	2.317424	3.263783	0.72914	1.297193	1.924397
9	-0.424918	-0.22741	-0.024684	-0.13138	-0.006709	0.127495	0.023944	0.183384	0.347774	0.088489	0.202014	0.313992	0.017117	0.069258	0.125159	-0.038204	0.016992	0.071073	-0.036193	-0.010259	0.01807	-0.20923	-0.08801	0.028332	-0.182705	-0.103995	-0.028942	0.132385	0.220238	0.307751	0.11907	0.176899	0.234033	0.019211	0.292032	0.561391	-0.014414	0.285321	0.58952	0.146315	0.291642	0.44283	0.198911	0.291541	0.385952	0.304047	0.410793	0.51111	0.156119	0.208724	0.260341	1.681281	2.468318	3.247375	1.109634	1.623028	2.127784	1.131745	2.129042	3.117652	0.612916	1.238201	1.896544
10	-0.415577	-0.220075	-0.023888	-0.119673	0.002746	0.135323	0.025212	0.189307	0.355979	0.087743	0.202091	0.317354	0.013174	0.060872	0.111696	-0.029628	0.019036	0.069185	-0.032267	-0.008923	0.016669	-0.206361	-0.089987	0.021472	-0.182695	-0.104062	-0.029664	0.081263	0.167915	0.251133	0.0816	0.138633	0.193802	-0.01411	0.265366	0.543326	-0.061231	0.250651	0.566448	0.101539	0.239201	0.381657	0.162989	0.251955	0.34545	0.311507	0.409382	0.499529	0.152319	0.199345	0.246954	2.058168	2.8777	3.702368	1.301589	1.822373	2.352038	0.918847	1.905831	2.945701	0.533714	1.168133	1.852104

Return to Figure 9

Figure 10: Impulse Responses to a 10yr Bond Yield Shock

Panel (row;column), Years	(1;1), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):14th percentile	(1;1), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):50th percentile	(1;1), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):84th percentile	(1;2), Long-term interest rate:14th percentile	(1;2), Long-term interest rate:50th percentile	(1;2), Long-term interest rate:84th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:84th percentile
0	-9.08E-02	-3.27E-02	2.56E-02	1.00E+00	1.00E+00	1.00E+00	-1.50E-04	-2.60E-05	1.53E-04
1	0.110324	0.19295	0.275092	0.994869	1.10582	1.215409	-0.12427	0.015017	0.154181
2	0.16612	0.26509	0.362227	1.121068	1.287681	1.457394	-0.054056	0.097878	0.246518
3	0.195742	0.310594	0.420026	1.203192	1.426414	1.650035	-0.058238	0.109727	0.276215
4	0.192165	0.314162	0.433221	1.23198	1.496356	1.763388	-0.059374	0.110541	0.275407
5	0.171553	0.29319	0.414428	1.215137	1.511836	1.807628	-0.04979	0.104174	0.25793
6	0.144246	0.261129	0.37474	1.175901	1.495727	1.813434	-0.022102	0.10757	0.241576
7	0.115416	0.22614	0.333583	1.127183	1.46294	1.790756	0.004643	0.119342	0.234831
8	0.090697	0.192414	0.293732	1.079072	1.421472	1.757318	0.026544	0.134172	0.241574
9	0.069823	0.161603	0.25462	1.024215	1.375641	1.719541	0.039253	0.14749	0.25473
10	0.049565	0.134212	0.219646	0.973116	1.327806	1.67327	0.043345	0.15626	0.268575

Return to Figure 10

Figure 12:Impulse Responses to an Aggregate Demand Shock

Panel (row;column), Years	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:14th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:50th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:86th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:14th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:50th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:86th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):14th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):50th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):86th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):14th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):50th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):86th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile
0	-2.60E-01	-1.55E-01	-4.41E-02	6.01E-01	7.33E-01	8.66E-01	1.00E+00	1.00E+00	1.00E+00	1.44E+00	1.69E+00	1.93E+00	-0.029873	0.028294	0.084023	-2.837858	-2.605393	-2.364597	7.38E-01	8.88E-01	1.04E+00	7.38E-01	8.88E-01	1.04E+00	-2.422902	-2.191086	-1.962652
1	-0.253411	-0.10655	0.036172	0.627971	0.784449	0.9357	-0.04782	0.079384	0.202113	1.131955	1.341978	1.540929	0.058246	0.130505	0.205186	-1.472534	-1.273323	-1.070356	0.730954	0.890999	1.057419	1.496184	1.779389	2.064546	-4.10072	-3.690669	-3.292545
2	-0.00707	0.161461	0.324654	0.608057	0.760927	0.914306	-0.162511	-0.054873	0.05302	0.549788	0.720553	0.874037	0.193269	0.280291	0.374573	-0.566634	-0.382108	-0.205662	0.455926	0.599467	0.736452	1.990438	2.378855	2.791064	-4.995347	-4.466914	-3.942123
3	0.216958	0.425546	0.615074	0.507537	0.672088	0.83359	-0.189947	-0.081812	0.02063	0.161468	0.326719	0.489998	0.241817	0.338845	0.44386	-0.098253	0.094316	0.290252	0.096733	0.246542	0.384339	2.125209	2.625397	3.134057	-5.320756	-4.670354	-4.031101
4	0.40226	0.625688	0.826217	0.41067	0.588208	0.76428	-0.193106	-0.107007	-0.021916	-0.118867	0.048575	0.220471	0.254192	0.355495	0.4658	0.224597	0.414543	0.609295	-0.182273	-0.037481	0.101369	1.997169	2.587917	3.16286	-5.173137	-4.444828	-3.711432
5	0.539041	0.772745	0.996388	0.331685	0.517047	0.700337	-0.189809	-0.118617	-0.045307	-0.301985	-0.139846	0.029896	0.242167	0.349562	0.462279	0.417994	0.609738	0.795986	-0.391067	-0.255699	-0.121361	1.670931	2.332218	2.975082	-4.730448	-3.911228	-3.119606
6	0.632609	0.8658	1.09386	0.276035	0.459074	0.651513	-0.186041	-0.119948	-0.05143	-0.415775	-0.255885	-0.097838	0.216628	0.328584	0.435154	0.522836	0.70706	0.898804	-0.533669	-0.406727	-0.281174	1.201167	1.925491	2.625979	-4.048195	-3.178473	-2.318102
7	0.676541	0.910994	1.144772	0.224267	0.414203	0.604416	-0.178192	-0.11519	-0.05329	-0.475393	-0.319908	-0.159101	0.188559	0.299068	0.407188	0.543611	0.737296	0.942398	-0.619685	-0.496791	-0.376594	0.670719	1.4287	2.180361	-3.261719	-2.336269	-1.439249
8	0.675595	0.915556	1.153956	0.190608	0.381461	0.572248	-0.169862	-0.106151	-0.047499	-0.507106	-0.346822	-0.188753	0.157217	0.265326	0.368977	0.52661	0.721488	0.926865	-0.653792	-0.534095	-0.425278	0.134068	0.894605	1.696271	-2.401626	-1.458008	-0.529175
9	0.648443	0.887587	1.133297	0.170132	0.359329	0.552632	-0.153669	-0.094597	-0.038348	-0.498909	-0.348267	-0.189833	0.124869	0.230111	0.332274	0.483696	0.675921	0.865564	-0.644051	-0.528258	-0.417563	-0.415216	0.366347	1.205559	-1.560562	-0.60127	0.386029
10	0.592437	0.835133	1.076374	0.157844	0.346013	0.537829	-0.138253	-0.081796	-0.028707	-0.470386	-0.333255	-0.181998	0.0972	0.195177	0.290939	0.426853	0.612767	0.794022	-0.603309	-0.48912	-0.377525	-0.910926	-0.122773	0.716023	-0.844226	0.191022	1.18677

Return to Figure 12

Figure 14: Impulse Responses to a Cost-Push Shock

Panel (row;column), Years	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:14th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:50th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:86th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:14th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:50th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:86th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):14th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):50th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):86th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):14th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):50th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):86th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile
0	1.19E-01	2.36E-01	3.59E-01	5.68E-01	6.87E-01	8.16E-01	1.00E+00	1.00E+00	1.00E+00	-2.63E+00	-2.40E+00	-2.20E+00	-0.1477	-0.100141	-0.049661	1.138901	1.347079	1.576987	3.44E-01	4.51E-01	5.60E-01	3.44E-01	4.51E-01	5.60E-01	0.100567	0.22221	0.335155
1	0.053452	0.18579	0.324576	0.519458	0.653439	0.785744	0.433807	0.534076	0.632317	-1.262253	-1.082749	-0.908301	-0.224902	-0.162688	-0.101274	0.214094	0.394319	0.566622	0.352312	0.46765	0.59001	0.718868	0.918979	1.122723	-0.253946	-0.047363	0.161284
2	-0.008378	0.125093	0.260292	0.541297	0.674551	0.799109	-0.00037	0.079846	0.161686	-0.971407	-0.816646	-0.662434	-0.290187	-0.222112	-0.153391	0.355375	0.519443	0.68143	0.443707	0.549458	0.659755	1.166118	1.468437	1.746053	-0.632288	-0.337211	-0.032769
3	0.077408	0.225033	0.372654	0.489456	0.623031	0.750514	-0.06958	-0.004642	0.063113	-0.857355	-0.705636	-0.562994	-0.302143	-0.232288	-0.160852	0.331682	0.481599	0.639282	0.301219	0.397998	0.50532	1.496045	1.866435	2.231721	-0.917551	-0.495814	-0.08806
4	0.156236	0.30949	0.456624	0.41478	0.5472	0.677092	-0.076169	-0.024803	0.024604	-0.738867	-0.60467	-0.477045	-0.319392	-0.246388	-0.169711	0.253367	0.385525	0.520235	0.15131	0.23771	0.328332	1.667302	2.104146	2.528051	-1.045401	-0.542418	-0.065575
5	0.213631	0.371748	0.522597	0.347202	0.475083	0.602031	-0.078167	-0.034843	0.007488	-0.650273	-0.5269	-0.41243	-0.326936	-0.250116	-0.172635	0.187958	0.313337	0.436795	0.025351	0.103334	0.186621	1.724889	2.20748	2.706495	-1.065631	-0.49052	0.064805
6	0.253974	0.410727	0.566184	0.278429	0.411753	0.538594	-0.073754	-0.036489	0.002047	-0.569472	-0.458974	-0.349632	-0.3214	-0.245693	-0.170646	0.136405	0.250959	0.365612	-0.069676	0.001026	0.070361	1.693919	2.208507	2.767412	-1.006159	-0.367039	0.230676
7	0.270302	0.428596	0.584171	0.223685	0.357783	0.482098	-0.067046	-0.034808	-0.000201	-0.496743	-0.397455	-0.296312	-0.307989	-0.235996	-0.161613	0.087526	0.197079	0.302731	-0.134684	-0.070813	-0.002962	1.613802	2.137693	2.731546	-0.890448	-0.198164	0.436612
8	0.275603	0.428997	0.584336	0.183594	0.312839	0.440228	-0.060701	-0.031546	-0.000558	-0.434445	-0.341926	-0.248013	-0.295978	-0.222893	-0.151726	0.051357	0.151125	0.250979	-0.174955	-0.116158	-0.057405	1.47557	2.021536	2.606401	-0.709166	-0.006512	0.675338
9	0.259524	0.415828	0.566681	0.145511	0.276023	0.401378	-0.056066	-0.027542	-0.000144	-0.381127	-0.292087	-0.2032	-0.279604	-0.20785	-0.13855	0.01534	0.112138	0.211752	-0.198944	-0.139805	-0.07715	1.308863	1.881731	2.475162	-0.51373	0.189574	0.933403
10	0.236663	0.392732	0.540926	0.116624	0.246272	0.375523	-0.049695	-0.023324	0.00208	-0.335678	-0.247802	-0.161586	-0.261797	-0.191979	-0.127039	-0.014862	0.07938	0.174257	-0.209251	-0.14646	-0.081909	1.170733	1.735271	2.301481	-0.356548	0.376086	1.147742

Return to Figure 14

Figure 16: Impulse Responses to a Primary Expenditure Shock

Panel (row;column), Years	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:14th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:50th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:86th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:14th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:50th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:86th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):14th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):50th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):86th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):14th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):50th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):86th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile
0	1.00E+00	1.00E+00	1.00E+00	-4.05E-01	-3.51E-01	-2.94E-01	4.23E-01	5.05E-01	5.82E-01	-2.30E-05	3.00E-06	2.10E-05	-0.015115	0.019881	0.053448	-0.574692	-0.482356	-0.394402	-1.40E+00	-1.35E+00	-1.29E+00	-1.40E+00	-1.35E+00	-1.29E+00	1.086861	1.110077	1.133006
1	0.363283	0.444894	0.526969	-0.285656	-0.217016	-0.148976	0.082601	0.165511	0.252265	0.328946	0.425639	0.520755	-0.034209	0.01417	0.062466	-0.699595	-0.574125	-0.442179	-0.738951	-0.66191	-0.579828	-2.113858	-2.013165	-1.912293	1.37278	1.478546	1.586918
2	0.209552	0.290686	0.371754	-0.190121	-0.121358	-0.047792	-0.033166	0.024172	0.085647	0.223648	0.310613	0.390692	0.025861	0.069604	0.111564	-0.367111	-0.264275	-0.160577	-0.471144	-0.412044	-0.351152	-2.557219	-2.425209	-2.288832	1.600731	1.754569	1.926268
3	0.071912	0.164656	0.255749	-0.13607	-0.063598	0.01635	-0.020138	0.027011	0.07591	0.191712	0.274573	0.351976	0.045464	0.094627	0.139759	-0.309367	-0.206327	-0.108219	-0.291374	-0.228254	-0.162774	-2.831587	-2.653463	-2.471589	1.659129	1.876104	2.116984
4	-0.020815	0.074812	0.17012	-0.102672	-0.022025	0.062963	-0.017477	0.01945	0.055297	0.155066	0.231212	0.30467	0.05358	0.102108	0.149327	-0.242133	-0.148164	-0.060256	-0.157205	-0.096838	-0.035459	-2.976522	-2.750301	-2.521965	1.62177	1.896168	2.183965
5	-0.091016	0.007829	0.103943	-0.067038	0.012186	0.098213	-0.012987	0.017302	0.046102	0.121385	0.189753	0.258832	0.052936	0.102397	0.148949	-0.190198	-0.104421	-0.023361	-0.051276	0.004356	0.061577	-3.018273	-2.745944	-2.468137	1.508327	1.837722	2.184937
6	-0.136303	-0.038729	0.060604	-0.040254	0.03924	0.125466	-0.009213	0.015839	0.040919	0.087093	0.152874	0.21544	0.050585	0.097259	0.14418	-0.152462	-0.071313	0.006373	0.031679	0.077969	0.126458	-2.972275	-2.667975	-2.365321	1.345623	1.722886	2.111624
7	-0.165449	-0.069368	0.028969	-0.019702	0.060128	0.145288	-0.008427	0.014374	0.036566	0.05626	0.120296	0.18135	0.042688	0.088756	0.133981	-0.122614	-0.045829	0.027083	0.088558	0.129496	0.172429	-2.863161	-2.53848	-2.210925	1.156887	1.56978	1.976314
8	-0.184368	-0.086808	0.009502	-0.005064	0.075494	0.158311	-0.007636	0.012716	0.033735	0.031036	0.091462	0.148092	0.034841	0.078456	0.12082	-0.100189	-0.025671	0.045887	0.124168	0.162302	0.203152	-2.719623	-2.376177	-2.031907	0.95404	1.394325	1.824672
9	-0.187434	-0.093871	0.001663	0.004946	0.086007	0.167176	-0.008016	0.010935	0.030517	0.00645	0.066222	0.12283	0.025314	0.067419	0.108113	-0.079949	-0.009703	0.057521	0.141118	0.179877	0.220003	-2.548287	-2.1963	-1.844875	0.729543	1.209541	1.657468
10	-0.184615	-0.092969	-0.000833	0.010939	0.092361	0.173316	-0.008764	0.009047	0.026763	-0.011036	0.044363	0.09905	0.017433	0.056397	0.09537	-0.063315	0.003014	0.067985	0.144266	0.18533	0.228551	-2.335642	-2.01097	-1.656492	0.529932	1.025832	1.482756

Return to Figure 16

Figure 18: Impulse Responses to a Government Revenue Shock

Panel (row;column), Years	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;1), Primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(2;1), Revenue-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:14th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:50th percentile	(3;1), Output growth rate:86th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:14th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:50th percentile	(1;2), Inflation rate:86th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):14th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):50th percentile	(2;2), Cost of Borrowing (nominal):86th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):14th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):50th percentile	(3;2), Cost of Borrowing (inflation and growth adjusted):86th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(1;3), Primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(2;3), Cumulative primary balance-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:14th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:50th percentile	(3;3), Debt-to-GDP ratio:86th percentile
0	6.57E-01	7.31E-01	8.04E-01	1.00E+00	1.00E+00	1.00E+00	-1.44E+00	-1.44E+00	-1.44E+00	-3.00E-05	-4.00E-06	2.50E-05	0.031777	0.069922	0.110726	1.490249	1.528877	1.57034	1.96E-01	2.69E-01	3.43E-01	1.96E-01	2.69E-01	3.43E-01	0.417756	0.495722	0.574449
1	0.821329	0.911381	0.997088	0.878847	0.936459	0.994431	-0.581197	-0.5021	-0.421221	-0.422712	-0.325816	-0.223445	-0.011472	0.04132	0.094167	0.740661	0.874993	1.011143	-0.062783	0.025078	0.110802	0.159895	0.293794	0.432965	0.762162	0.912473	1.065337
2	0.935558	1.035223	1.128229	0.700409	0.772999	0.843911	-0.300341	-0.225895	-0.152865	-0.546289	-0.440976	-0.332516	-0.068261	-0.011212	0.044338	0.525042	0.659209	0.788514	-0.354003	-0.262224	-0.177972	-0.161384	0.03157	0.229497	1.282033	1.51036	1.758109
3	0.897543	0.99823	1.093781	0.619206	0.697876	0.778306	-0.177206	-0.124669	-0.073993	-0.542979	-0.456198	-0.366926	-0.089133	-0.037049	0.015619	0.432404	0.546518	0.653694	-0.383693	-0.300354	-0.222757	-0.532196	-0.268784	-0.010856	1.789589	2.092309	2.414458
4	0.8276	0.926388	1.026337	0.571882	0.654985	0.735987	-0.122855	-0.083976	-0.045741	-0.514911	-0.435389	-0.355031	-0.105252	-0.053959	-0.003016	0.368123	0.467535	0.558311	-0.343953	-0.271402	-0.198004	-0.859648	-0.540187	-0.233199	2.247435	2.607354	2.992391
5	0.729233	0.834834	0.937883	0.541304	0.627008	0.710498	-0.094884	-0.060556	-0.028084	-0.472975	-0.398333	-0.319467	-0.121762	-0.068423	-0.015631	0.298572	0.392082	0.477053	-0.274436	-0.207826	-0.143041	-1.106846	-0.748012	-0.397623	2.587218	3.021531	3.439536
6	0.631699	0.73931	0.839825	0.518567	0.606344	0.694018	-0.077202	-0.045196	-0.013964	-0.435306	-0.359724	-0.287782	-0.135635	-0.081119	-0.029571	0.236666	0.325011	0.411761	-0.195677	-0.132966	-0.074754	-1.271414	-0.880978	-0.49665	2.852195	3.326908	3.774406
7	0.533325	0.645678	0.754626	0.499283	0.58958	0.678938	-0.064273	-0.033418	-0.003524	-0.396227	-0.323124	-0.253783	-0.146392	-0.092284	-0.037886	0.178226	0.265154	0.355789	-0.111797	-0.056098	0.001305	-1.345711	-0.937076	-0.532961	3.019345	3.52449	4.011222
8	0.444954	0.55808	0.670598	0.482967	0.574717	0.668998	-0.055991	-0.024292	0.007142	-0.362464	-0.290421	-0.222464	-0.156968	-0.101993	-0.048505	0.125926	0.21338	0.308195	-0.036801	0.016637	0.074024	-1.353247	-0.92044	-0.498056	3.103723	3.622158	4.141407
9	0.364174	0.478844	0.592841	0.461193	0.560475	0.659985	-0.048431	-0.017176	0.013115	-0.334676	-0.262304	-0.189939	-0.166274	-0.110269	-0.055699	0.077321	0.169702	0.261277	0.023038	0.081631	0.137959	-1.283106	-0.838809	-0.418991	3.095698	3.631635	4.169472
10	0.290264	0.409298	0.527563	0.441717	0.54597	0.648325	-0.04241	-0.011741	0.018039	-0.314607	-0.238844	-0.162918	-0.173267	-0.117134	-0.061661	0.039098	0.133824	0.231544	0.075583	0.136672	0.195681	-1.165605	-0.702137	-0.278967	3.033338	3.566865	4.09871

Return to Figure 18

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