FRB: Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data

Figure 1.1 State-Space Model Estimates of Potential GDP and its Components (shaded region denotes 95% confidence interval)

	Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Level of Potential GDP	Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Level of Potential GDP	Level of Potential GDP	2000 to 2007 Trend for the Level of Potential GDP	Level of Actual GDP	Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Four Quarter Growth Rate of Potental GDP	Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Four Quarter Growth Rate of Potental GDP	Four Quarter Growth Rate of Potental GDP	Four Quarter Growth Rate of Actual GDP	Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Natural Rate of Unemployment	Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Natural Rate of Unemployment	Natural Rate of Unemployment	Actual Unemployment Rate	Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Trend Labor Force Participation Rate	Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the Trend Labor Force Participation Rate	Trend Labor Force Participation Rate	Actual Labor Force Participation Rate	Contribution of Actual Capital Deepening	Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for Trend Multifactor Productivity	Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for Trend Multifactor Productivity	Trend Multifactor Productivity	2000 to 2007 Trend in Multifactor Productivity
1990Q1	7837.98	8109.34	7972.50		8020.84	2.45	3.86	3.15	2.83	6.61	4.77	5.70	5.43	66.40	67.07	66.74	66.95	0.51	80.49	82.59	81.53
1990Q2	7901.29	8174.87	8036.92		8052.72	2.45	3.86	3.16	2.47	6.53	4.68	5.61	5.47	66.41	67.08	66.74	66.76	0.46	80.74	82.84	81.78
1990Q3	7958.36	8233.96	8094.99		8052.60	2.41	3.82	3.12	1.67	6.52	4.67	5.60	5.82	66.43	67.09	66.76	66.69	0.42	80.93	83.04	81.97
1990Q4	8004.57	8281.80	8142.00		7982.05	2.36	3.77	3.07	0.56	6.46	4.61	5.54	6.24	66.43	67.10	66.77	66.64	0.42	80.98	83.09	82.03
1991Q1	8050.61	8329.48	8188.86		7943.38	1.97	3.38	2.68	-0.97	6.43	4.58	5.51	6.70	66.43	67.09	66.76	66.48	0.48	81.10	83.22	82.16
1991Q2	8097.96	8378.50	8237.04		7996.99	1.76	3.16	2.46	-0.69	6.36	4.51	5.44	6.95	66.43	67.09	66.76	66.47	0.47	81.25	83.37	82.31
1991Q3	8145.48	8427.72	8285.40		8030.68	1.62	3.03	2.32	-0.27	6.22	4.37	5.30	6.98	66.42	67.09	66.75	66.29	0.39	81.34	83.46	82.39
1991Q4	8203.32	8487.62	8344.26		8062.16	1.75	3.16	2.45	1.00	6.18	4.33	5.26	7.22	66.44	67.10	66.77	66.32	0.30	81.53	83.66	82.59
1992Q1	8277.43	8564.35	8419.67		8150.65	2.08	3.48	2.78	2.61	6.32	4.47	5.40	7.50	66.45	67.11	66.78	66.52	0.24	81.95	84.08	83.01
1992Q2	8341.81	8631.02	8485.18		8237.26	2.26	3.67	2.97	3.00	6.41	4.57	5.49	7.72	66.47	67.14	66.80	66.77	0.22	82.16	84.30	83.22
1992Q3	8394.45	8685.56	8538.76		8322.25	2.31	3.72	3.01	3.63	6.43	4.58	5.51	7.75	66.48	67.14	66.81	66.83	0.27	82.27	84.41	83.33
1992Q4	8437.03	8729.69	8582.11		8409.83	2.11	3.51	2.81	4.31	6.40	4.55	5.48	7.53	66.46	67.12	66.79	66.55	0.34	82.32	84.47	83.39
1993Q1	8475.81	8769.89	8621.60		8425.29	1.67	3.07	2.37	3.37	6.27	4.42	5.35	7.28	66.45	67.12	66.79	66.46	0.38	82.22	84.36	83.28
1993Q2	8525.99	8821.89	8672.68		8479.19	1.48	2.89	2.19	2.94	6.27	4.42	5.35	7.20	66.46	67.13	66.79	66.61	0.44	82.27	84.42	83.34
1993Q3	8557.21	8854.29	8704.48		8523.83	1.22	2.63	1.92	2.42	6.22	4.36	5.29	6.93	66.44	67.11	66.77	66.63	0.48	82.24	84.38	83.30
1993Q4	8628.21	8927.84	8776.75		8636.39	1.54	2.95	2.24	2.69	6.22	4.37	5.30	6.75	66.43	67.09	66.76	66.62	0.50	82.46	84.61	83.53
1994Q1	8702.70	9005.02	8852.57		8720.47	1.94	3.35	2.64	3.50	6.21	4.35	5.29	6.58	66.41	67.07	66.74	66.45	0.55	82.67	84.83	83.74
1994Q2	8773.31	9078.20	8924.46		8839.75	2.16	3.57	2.86	4.25	6.13	4.27	5.21	6.19	66.39	67.06	66.72	66.34	0.51	82.77	84.93	83.84
1994Q3	8838.02	9145.28	8990.34		8896.69	2.53	3.94	3.23	4.37	6.11	4.25	5.19	6.03	66.39	67.06	66.73	66.40	0.52	82.88	85.04	83.95
1994Q4	8892.46	9201.73	9045.77		8995.50	2.31	3.72	3.02	4.16	6.09	4.22	5.16	5.65	66.38	67.04	66.71	66.62	0.57	83.01	85.18	84.08
1995Q1	8938.62	9249.64	9092.80		9017.57	1.97	3.38	2.68	3.41	6.06	4.20	5.13	5.51	66.37	67.03	66.70	66.56	0.63	83.05	85.22	84.13
1995Q2	8990.29	9303.25	9145.43		9036.95	1.74	3.15	2.45	2.23	6.16	4.30	5.24	5.70	66.36	67.03	66.69	66.42	0.79	83.21	85.39	84.29
1995Q3	9042.44	9357.36	9198.55		9112.90	1.59	2.99	2.29	2.43	6.23	4.37	5.30	5.68	66.36	67.03	66.69	66.40	0.87	83.33	85.51	84.41
1995Q4	9101.16	9418.29	9258.37		9176.44	1.62	3.03	2.32	2.01	6.26	4.40	5.33	5.60	66.35	67.02	66.68	66.33	0.92	83.49	85.67	84.57
1996Q1	9178.63	9498.64	9337.26		9239.30	1.95	3.36	2.65	2.46	6.23	4.36	5.30	5.57	66.37	67.04	66.70	66.31	0.93	83.74	85.93	84.83
1996Q2	9276.60	9600.21	9437.02		9399.03	2.43	3.84	3.14	4.01	6.26	4.39	5.33	5.50	66.40	67.07	66.74	66.48	0.88	84.07	86.26	85.16
1996Q3	9345.79	9672.00	9507.50		9480.78	2.60	4.01	3.30	4.04	6.25	4.38	5.32	5.29	66.43	67.10	66.76	66.66	0.89	84.21	86.41	85.31
1996Q4	9424.82	9754.01	9588.00		9584.27	2.79	4.20	3.50	4.44	6.35	4.48	5.42	5.34	66.48	67.14	66.81	66.85	0.89	84.45	86.66	85.54
1997Q1	9512.19	9844.65	9676.99		9657.99	2.87	4.28	3.57	4.53	6.36	4.49	5.43	5.24	66.50	67.17	66.83	66.86	0.92	84.67	86.89	85.77
1997Q2	9611.31	9947.48	9777.95		9801.18	2.84	4.25	3.55	4.28	6.30	4.43	5.37	4.99	66.51	67.18	66.84	66.89	0.97	84.97	87.20	86.08
1997Q3	9711.95	10051.89	9880.46		9924.20	3.14	4.55	3.85	4.68	6.33	4.46	5.40	4.88	66.51	67.18	66.84	66.92	1.08	85.32	87.55	86.43
1997Q4	9795.80	10138.95	9965.90		10000.33	3.16	4.57	3.87	4.34	6.30	4.43	5.37	4.71	66.51	67.18	66.84	66.87	1.16	85.58	87.81	86.69
1998Q1	9879.30	10225.67	10050.99		10094.80	3.09	4.50	3.79	4.52	6.32	4.45	5.39	4.63	66.51	67.18	66.84	66.96	1.27	85.84	88.08	86.95
1998Q2	9974.78	10324.80	10148.28		10185.58	3.01	4.42	3.72	3.92	6.24	4.37	5.31	4.40	66.50	67.17	66.84	66.86	1.36	86.15	88.40	87.27
1998Q3	10078.58	10432.58	10254.05		10319.97	3.01	4.42	3.71	3.99	6.35	4.48	5.42	4.52	66.51	67.17	66.84	66.91	1.42	86.59	88.86	87.72
1998Q4	10172.57	10530.22	10349.85		10498.61	3.08	4.49	3.78	4.98	6.42	4.54	5.48	4.42	66.50	67.17	66.83	67.03	1.46	86.85	89.13	87.98
1999Q1	10269.00	10630.41	10448.14		10592.15	3.17	4.58	3.88	4.93	6.46	4.58	5.52	4.27	66.48	67.14	66.81	67.04	1.52	87.20	89.49	88.34
1999Q2	10366.09	10731.31	10547.12		10674.94	3.15	4.56	3.85	4.80	6.45	4.57	5.51	4.24	66.47	67.14	66.80	66.96	1.57	87.45	89.74	88.59
1999Q3	10467.28	10836.49	10650.29		10810.68	3.09	4.50	3.79	4.75	6.48	4.59	5.54	4.23	66.46	67.13	66.80	66.95	1.59	87.77	90.07	88.91
1999Q4	10590.14	10964.14	10775.52		11004.83	3.33	4.74	4.03	4.82	6.48	4.59	5.54	4.07	66.45	67.12	66.79	67.00	1.61	88.26	90.57	89.41
2000Q1	10700.98	11079.38	10888.54		11033.57	3.42	4.83	4.13	4.17	6.52	4.63	5.58	4.05	66.46	67.12	66.79	67.24	1.59	88.70	91.02	89.85
2000Q2	10815.18	11198.13	11004.99		11248.80	3.54	4.95	4.25	5.38	6.50	4.61	5.56	3.95	66.42	67.09	66.76	67.12	1.59	89.14	91.48	90.30
2000Q3	10893.48	11279.74	11084.93		11258.26	3.29	4.71	4.00	4.14	6.53	4.63	5.58	4.03	66.38	67.05	66.71	66.85	1.56	89.46	91.81	90.62
2000Q4	10975.92	11365.68	11169.10		11324.96	2.88	4.29	3.59	2.91	6.39	4.49	5.44	3.92	66.33	67.00	66.66	66.87	1.49	89.73	92.08	90.90
2001Q1	11049.30	11442.29	11244.08		11287.75	2.51	3.92	3.21	2.30	6.39	4.48	5.44	4.23	66.31	66.98	66.65	67.07	1.39	90.09	92.46	91.27
2001Q2	11127.48	11523.90	11323.96		11361.73	2.15	3.56	2.86	1.00	6.34	4.43	5.39	4.41	66.23	66.90	66.57	66.67	1.23	90.51	92.89	91.69
2001Q3	11202.49	11602.27	11400.63		11330.38	2.10	3.51	2.81	0.64	6.31	4.40	5.36	4.82	66.17	66.84	66.50	66.56	1.04	90.89	93.28	92.08
2001Q4	11275.80	11678.92	11475.59		11370.03	2.00	3.41	2.71	0.40	6.43	4.52	5.48	5.53	66.11	66.78	66.45	66.62	0.97	91.32	93.72	92.51
2002Q1	11340.98	11747.21	11542.31		11467.14	1.91	3.32	2.62	1.59	6.49	4.57	5.54	5.70	66.03	66.69	66.36	66.46	0.91	91.79	94.20	92.99
2002Q2	11422.81	11832.79	11625.99		11528.14	1.93	3.34	2.63	1.46	6.50	4.58	5.54	5.84	65.97	66.63	66.30	66.48	0.87	92.10	94.52	93.30
2002Q3	11480.24	11893.14	11684.86		11586.61	1.76	3.17	2.46	2.26	6.37	4.45	5.42	5.73	65.90	66.56	66.23	66.40	0.87	92.32	94.76	93.53
2002Q4	11529.69	11945.29	11735.65		11590.58	1.53	2.95	2.24	1.94	6.35	4.42	5.39	5.84	65.84	66.50	66.17	66.21	0.79	92.60	95.04	93.82
2003Q1	11607.78	12027.16	11815.61		11638.92	1.63	3.05	2.34	1.50	6.27	4.34	5.31	5.87	65.78	66.44	66.11	66.09	0.69	93.01	95.47	94.23
2003Q2	11672.19	12094.92	11881.67		11737.52	1.47	2.88	2.18	1.82	6.43	4.49	5.47	6.15	65.72	66.39	66.05	66.16	0.68	93.51	95.98	94.73
2003Q3	11717.74	12143.21	11928.58		11930.68	1.36	2.77	2.06	2.97	6.49	4.55	5.53	6.11	65.65	66.32	65.98	65.84	0.68	93.90	96.38	95.13
2003Q4	11808.53	12238.44	12021.57		12038.59	1.70	3.11	2.41	3.87	6.43	4.48	5.46	5.82	65.59	66.26	65.92	65.75	0.65	94.29	96.78	95.53
2004Q1	11889.96	12324.04	12105.06		12117.92	1.71	3.13	2.42	4.12	6.44	4.49	5.47	5.69	65.54	66.20	65.87	65.74	0.63	94.67	97.17	95.91
2004Q2	11951.14	12388.74	12167.97		12195.89	1.67	3.09	2.38	3.91	6.45	4.49	5.47	5.59	65.50	66.16	65.83	65.65	0.59	95.04	97.56	96.29
2004Q3	12038.18	12480.33	12257.26		12286.67	2.01	3.42	2.72	2.98	6.44	4.47	5.46	5.43	65.47	66.13	65.80	65.63	0.54	95.40	97.93	96.66
2004Q4	12131.25	12578.26	12352.73		12387.23	2.01	3.42	2.72	2.90	6.44	4.47	5.46	5.39	65.45	66.11	65.78	65.61	0.58	95.77	98.30	97.03
2005Q1	12217.97	12669.69	12441.78		12515.00	2.04	3.45	2.74	3.28	6.44	4.46	5.46	5.28	65.42	66.09	65.75	65.53	0.64	96.17	98.72	97.44
2005Q2	12295.63	12751.83	12521.65		12570.71	2.16	3.57	2.87	3.07	6.41	4.41	5.42	5.11	65.41	66.07	65.74	65.71	0.66	96.41	98.97	97.68
2005Q3	12368.69	12829.29	12596.88		12670.53	2.03	3.44	2.73	3.12	6.39	4.39	5.39	4.96	65.39	66.06	65.72	65.75	0.64	96.72	99.29	98.00
2005Q4	12435.54	12900.42	12665.85		12735.59	1.80	3.21	2.50	2.81	6.47	4.46	5.47	4.95	65.37	66.04	65.70	65.68	0.67	97.00	99.58	98.28
2006Q1	12521.70	12991.70	12754.53		12896.38	1.77	3.19	2.48	3.05	6.46	4.44	5.46	4.72	65.36	66.03	65.70	65.76	0.67	97.34	99.93	98.63
2006Q2	12597.46	13072.29	12832.68		12948.71	1.75	3.16	2.45	3.01	6.50	4.47	5.49	4.65	65.34	66.01	65.68	65.79	0.70	97.58	100.18	98.87
2006Q3	12648.78	13127.65	12885.99		12950.44	1.56	2.98	2.27	2.21	6.54	4.51	5.53	4.64	65.32	65.99	65.65	65.79	0.75	97.70	100.31	99.00
2006Q4	12701.97	13185.06	12941.26		13038.44	1.44	2.86	2.15	2.38	6.51	4.47	5.49	4.45	65.30	65.97	65.63	65.94	0.71	97.87	100.49	99.17
2007Q1	12762.06	13249.77	13003.63		13056.12	1.23	2.64	1.93	1.24	6.48	4.43	5.46	4.52	65.28	65.95	65.61	65.95	0.67	97.95	100.58	99.26
2007Q2	12832.03	13324.87	13076.13		13173.55	1.17	2.59	1.88	1.74	6.41	4.34	5.38	4.49	65.24	65.92	65.58	65.60	0.61	98.14	100.78	99.45
2007Q3	12903.90	13402.10	13150.64		13269.83	1.32	2.74	2.03	2.47	6.44	4.36	5.40	4.65	65.21	65.89	65.55	65.54	0.59	98.37	101.01	99.68
2007Q4	13005.12	13509.96	13255.14	13255.14	13325.96	1.69	3.11	2.40	2.21	6.40	4.30	5.36	4.80	65.20	65.88	65.54	65.59	0.57	98.68	101.34	100.00	100.00
2008Q1	13104.07	13615.63	13357.40	13340.47	13266.83	1.97	3.39	2.68	1.61	6.38	4.27	5.33	4.99	65.19	65.87	65.53	65.77	0.54	98.97	101.64	100.30	100.35
2008Q2	13204.04	13722.56	13460.80	13426.35	13310.47	2.19	3.61	2.90	1.04	6.37	4.25	5.32	5.33	65.17	65.85	65.51	65.69	0.52	99.30	101.98	100.63	100.70
2008Q3	13268.96	13793.23	13528.56	13512.78	13186.93	2.12	3.54	2.83	-0.62	6.46	4.32	5.40	6.02	65.15	65.83	65.49	65.68	0.47	99.58	102.28	100.92	101.05
2008Q4	13308.23	13837.42	13570.25	13599.77	12883.53	1.64	3.06	2.35	-3.32	6.45	4.30	5.39	6.89	65.10	65.78	65.44	65.56	0.37	99.68	102.38	101.02	101.40
2009Q1	13290.25	13822.24	13553.64	13687.32	12710.98	0.75	2.17	1.46	-4.19	6.77	4.62	5.70	8.31	65.06	65.74	65.40	65.38	0.33	99.91	102.63	101.27	101.75
2009Q2	13382.68	13922.08	13649.71	13775.43	12700.99	0.68	2.11	1.39	-4.58	6.89	4.72	5.82	9.30	65.02	65.71	65.36	65.35	0.21	100.34	103.08	101.70	102.11
2009Q3	13484.12	14031.53	13755.10	13864.11	12746.71	0.95	2.37	1.66	-3.34	6.74	4.55	5.65	9.63	64.96	65.65	65.30	64.99	0.03	100.67	103.43	102.04	102.46
2009Q4	13546.16	14100.20	13820.40	13953.37	12873.05	1.11	2.54	1.83	-0.08	6.82	4.61	5.72	9.95	64.89	65.58	65.23	64.56	-0.03	101.01	103.79	102.39	102.82
2010Q1	13589.23	14149.35	13866.46	14043.19	12947.56	1.57	3.00	2.28	1.86	6.84	4.62	5.74	9.84	64.81	65.49	65.15	64.53	-0.13	101.27	104.07	102.66	103.18
2010Q2	13622.08	14188.11	13902.22	14133.60	13019.59	1.12	2.55	1.83	2.51	6.83	4.59	5.72	9.67	64.72	65.41	65.06	64.53	-0.17	101.37	104.17	102.76	103.54
2010Q3	13617.87	14188.49	13900.25	14224.58	13103.50	0.34	1.76	1.05	2.80	6.95	4.69	5.82	9.50	64.60	65.29	64.94	64.29	-0.05	101.51	104.33	102.91	103.90
2010Q4	13617.07	14192.66	13901.89	14316.15	13181.21	-0.13	1.30	0.59	2.39	7.13	4.85	6.00	9.56	64.49	65.18	64.84	64.09	0.05	101.62	104.46	103.03	104.26
2011Q1	13653.26	14235.66	13941.42	14408.31	13183.78	-0.18	1.26	0.54	1.82	6.96	4.65	5.81	9.04	64.37	65.07	64.72	63.92	0.06	101.70	104.56	103.12	104.62
2011Q2	13680.01	14269.11	13971.45	14501.07	13264.66	-0.22	1.21	0.50	1.88	7.06	4.73	5.90	9.07	64.27	64.97	64.62	63.83	0.16	101.83	104.72	103.26	104.99
2011Q3	13707.05	14303.20	14001.95	14594.42	13306.92	0.01	1.45	0.73	1.55	7.09	4.73	5.92	9.02	64.16	64.87	64.52	63.78	0.20	101.89	104.80	103.33	105.35
2011Q4	13758.53	14363.17	14057.60	14688.37	13441.05	0.39	1.83	1.11	1.97	7.01	4.64	5.83	8.68	64.06	64.77	64.41	63.75	0.20	102.04	104.99	103.50	105.72
2012Q1	13798.30	14411.36	14101.50	14782.93	13506.43	0.42	1.86	1.14	2.45	6.91	4.50	5.72	8.24	63.94	64.67	64.31	63.74	0.29	102.13	105.11	103.61	106.09
2012Q2	13809.17	14429.86	14116.10	14878.10	13548.54	0.30	1.76	1.03	2.14	6.99	4.56	5.78	8.16	63.82	64.57	64.19	63.69	0.36	102.21	105.24	103.71	106.46
2012Q3	13829.38	14458.73	14140.56	14973.88	13652.52	0.26	1.71	0.99	2.60	6.98	4.51	5.75	8.03	63.72	64.49	64.11	63.55	0.37	102.28	105.37	103.81	106.83
2012Q4	13868.07	14507.78	14184.32	15070.27	13665.44	0.16	1.63	0.90	1.67	7.01	4.51	5.77	7.82	63.62	64.42	64.02	63.63	0.42	102.44	105.60	104.01	107.20
2013Q1	13933.28	14585.97	14255.89	15167.29	13725.71	0.34	1.83	1.09	1.62	7.03	4.51	5.78	7.74	63.50	64.35	63.93	63.38	0.45	102.65	105.90	104.26	107.57
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4

Return to Figure 1.1

Figure 1.2. Estimates of Resource Utilization (shaded region denotes 95% confidence interval)

	Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the 2-Sided Estimated of the GDP Gap	Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the 2-Sided Estimate of the GDP Gap	2-Sided Estimate of the GDP Gap	2-Sided Estimate of the Common Cycle	Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the 2-Sided Estimated of the Unemployment Gap	Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the 2-Sided Estimate of the Unemployment Gap	2-Sided Estimate of the Unemployment Gap	2-Sided Estimate of the Rescaled Common Cycle
1990Q1	2.31	-1.10	0.60	0.29	-1.18	0.66	-0.27	-0.19
1990Q2	1.90	-1.51	0.20	-0.10	-1.06	0.79	-0.14	0.06
1990Q3	1.18	-2.23	-0.53	-0.96	-0.70	1.14	0.22	0.60
1990Q4	-0.28	-3.69	-1.98	-2.07	-0.22	1.63	0.70	1.29
1991Q1	-1.34	-4.75	-3.04	-2.98	0.28	2.13	1.20	1.85
1991Q2	-1.25	-4.66	-2.96	-3.23	0.59	2.44	1.51	2.01
1991Q3	-1.42	-4.83	-3.12	-3.51	0.76	2.62	1.69	2.18
1991Q4	-1.74	-5.14	-3.44	-3.95	1.04	2.90	1.97	2.45
1992Q1	-1.54	-4.95	-3.25	-3.90	1.19	3.04	2.11	2.42
1992Q2	-1.26	-4.67	-2.97	-3.81	1.31	3.16	2.23	2.37
1992Q3	-0.86	-4.27	-2.57	-3.76	1.32	3.17	2.24	2.33
1992Q4	-0.32	-3.73	-2.03	-3.16	1.13	2.98	2.05	1.96
1993Q1	-0.60	-4.01	-2.30	-3.16	1.00	2.86	1.93	1.96
1993Q2	-0.55	-3.96	-2.26	-2.77	0.92	2.77	1.84	1.73
1993Q3	-0.39	-3.80	-2.10	-2.59	0.71	2.56	1.63	1.61
1993Q4	0.09	-3.32	-1.61	-2.04	0.52	2.38	1.45	1.27
1994Q1	0.20	-3.21	-1.50	-1.83	0.37	2.23	1.29	1.14
1994Q2	0.75	-2.66	-0.95	-1.19	0.06	1.92	0.98	0.74
1994Q3	0.66	-2.76	-1.05	-0.92	-0.09	1.78	0.84	0.58
1994Q4	1.15	-2.27	-0.56	-0.45	-0.44	1.42	0.49	0.28
1995Q1	0.88	-2.54	-0.83	-0.50	-0.55	1.31	0.37	0.32
1995Q2	0.52	-2.90	-1.19	-0.80	-0.46	1.40	0.46	0.50
1995Q3	0.78	-2.65	-0.94	-0.38	-0.55	1.32	0.38	0.24
1995Q4	0.82	-2.60	-0.89	-0.38	-0.66	1.20	0.26	0.24
1996Q1	0.66	-2.77	-1.05	-0.46	-0.65	1.21	0.27	0.29
1996Q2	1.31	-2.12	-0.40	-0.04	-0.76	1.11	0.17	0.02
1996Q3	1.43	-2.00	-0.28	0.24	-0.96	0.91	-0.03	-0.15
1996Q4	1.68	-1.76	-0.04	0.57	-1.01	0.86	-0.08	-0.36
1997Q1	1.52	-1.91	-0.20	0.69	-1.12	0.75	-0.19	-0.43
1997Q2	1.96	-1.48	0.24	0.87	-1.30	0.57	-0.37	-0.55
1997Q3	2.16	-1.28	0.44	1.16	-1.45	0.42	-0.52	-0.73
1997Q4	2.07	-1.38	0.34	1.31	-1.59	0.28	-0.66	-0.83
1998Q1	2.16	-1.29	0.43	1.45	-1.69	0.18	-0.76	-0.92
1998Q2	2.09	-1.36	0.37	1.61	-1.84	0.04	-0.91	-1.02
1998Q3	2.37	-1.09	0.64	1.71	-1.84	0.04	-0.90	-1.08
1998Q4	3.15	-0.30	1.43	2.12	-2.00	-0.12	-1.06	-1.34
1999Q1	3.10	-0.36	1.37	2.25	-2.19	-0.31	-1.25	-1.43
1999Q2	2.94	-0.53	1.20	2.19	-2.21	-0.33	-1.28	-1.39
1999Q3	3.23	-0.24	1.49	2.33	-2.24	-0.36	-1.31	-1.48
1999Q4	3.84	0.37	2.11	2.72	-2.41	-0.53	-1.47	-1.73
2000Q1	3.06	-0.41	1.32	2.90	-2.47	-0.58	-1.53	-1.84
2000Q2	3.93	0.45	2.19	2.87	-2.55	-0.66	-1.61	-1.82
2000Q3	3.29	-0.19	1.55	2.64	-2.50	-0.60	-1.55	-1.68
2000Q4	3.13	-0.36	1.39	2.14	-2.47	-0.57	-1.53	-1.35
2001Q1	2.14	-1.36	0.39	1.81	-2.16	-0.25	-1.21	-1.14
2001Q2	2.08	-1.42	0.33	1.02	-1.93	-0.03	-0.98	-0.65
2001Q3	1.14	-2.37	-0.62	-0.06	-1.49	0.42	-0.54	0.04
2001Q4	0.83	-2.68	-0.92	-0.94	-0.90	1.01	0.05	0.59
2002Q1	1.11	-2.41	-0.65	-0.66	-0.79	1.13	0.17	0.42
2002Q2	0.92	-2.61	-0.85	-0.67	-0.65	1.26	0.30	0.42
2002Q3	0.92	-2.61	-0.84	-0.84	-0.65	1.28	0.31	0.53
2002Q4	0.53	-3.01	-1.24	-0.95	-0.51	1.42	0.45	0.60
2003Q1	0.27	-3.28	-1.51	-1.35	-0.40	1.54	0.56	0.85
2003Q2	0.56	-3.00	-1.22	-1.22	-0.28	1.66	0.69	0.77
2003Q3	1.80	-1.77	0.02	-0.61	-0.39	1.56	0.58	0.38
2003Q4	1.93	-1.65	0.14	-0.35	-0.61	1.34	0.36	0.22
2004Q1	1.90	-1.69	0.11	-0.21	-0.76	1.20	0.22	0.13
2004Q2	2.03	-1.57	0.23	0.06	-0.86	1.10	0.12	-0.04
2004Q3	2.04	-1.56	0.24	0.29	-1.00	0.97	-0.02	-0.18
2004Q4	2.09	-1.53	0.28	0.34	-1.05	0.92	-0.07	-0.21
2005Q1	2.40	-1.23	0.59	0.57	-1.16	0.82	-0.18	-0.36
2005Q2	2.21	-1.43	0.39	0.67	-1.30	0.69	-0.31	-0.42
2005Q3	2.41	-1.25	0.58	0.81	-1.42	0.58	-0.43	-0.51
2005Q4	2.38	-1.29	0.55	1.16	-1.52	0.49	-0.52	-0.73
2006Q1	2.95	-0.74	1.11	1.79	-1.74	0.27	-0.74	-1.13
2006Q2	2.75	-0.95	0.90	1.62	-1.85	0.18	-0.84	-1.02
2006Q3	2.36	-1.36	0.50	1.66	-1.90	0.13	-0.89	-1.05
2006Q4	2.61	-1.12	0.75	1.93	-2.06	-0.02	-1.05	-1.22
2007Q1	2.28	-1.47	0.40	1.39	-1.97	0.09	-0.94	-0.88
2007Q2	2.63	-1.14	0.74	1.35	-1.92	0.15	-0.89	-0.85
2007Q3	2.80	-0.99	0.90	0.95	-1.79	0.29	-0.75	-0.60
2007Q4	2.44	-1.37	0.53	0.56	-1.60	0.49	-0.56	-0.35
2008Q1	1.23	-2.60	-0.68	0.02	-1.39	0.72	-0.34	-0.01
2008Q2	0.80	-3.05	-1.12	-0.79	-1.05	1.08	0.01	0.49
2008Q3	-0.62	-4.50	-2.56	-2.12	-0.44	1.69	0.62	1.32
2008Q4	-3.24	-7.14	-5.19	-4.75	0.43	2.58	1.50	2.94
2009Q1	-4.46	-8.38	-6.42	-6.32	1.54	3.70	2.61	3.90
2009Q2	-5.23	-9.18	-7.20	-7.57	2.41	4.58	3.49	4.65
2009Q3	-5.62	-9.60	-7.61	-8.04	2.90	5.09	3.98	4.93
2009Q4	-5.10	-9.11	-7.10	-7.51	3.13	5.34	4.23	4.61
2010Q1	-4.84	-8.88	-6.86	-6.88	3.00	5.22	4.10	4.23
2010Q2	-4.52	-8.59	-6.56	-6.56	2.84	5.08	3.95	4.04
2010Q3	-3.85	-7.96	-5.90	-5.87	2.55	4.82	3.68	3.62
2010Q4	-3.25	-7.39	-5.32	-5.50	2.42	4.70	3.56	3.40
2011Q1	-3.50	-7.68	-5.59	-5.26	2.08	4.39	3.23	3.25
2011Q2	-3.08	-7.30	-5.19	-5.10	2.01	4.34	3.16	3.15
2011Q3	-2.96	-7.22	-5.09	-5.05	1.94	4.29	3.11	3.12
2011Q4	-2.33	-6.64	-4.49	-4.41	1.67	4.05	2.85	2.73
2012Q1	-2.14	-6.49	-4.31	-3.88	1.33	3.74	2.53	2.41
2012Q2	-1.91	-6.30	-4.10	-3.94	1.17	3.60	2.38	2.45
2012Q3	-1.29	-5.74	-3.51	-3.58	1.05	3.52	2.28	2.22
2012Q4	-1.47	-5.98	-3.73	-3.12	0.82	3.31	2.06	1.94
2013Q1	-1.50	-6.08	-3.79	-3.10	0.71	3.23	1.96	1.93
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4

Return to Figure 1.2

Figure 1.3. Real-Time Estimates and Projections of Potential Output and the Natural Rate

	2008 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP	2009 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP	2010 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP	2011 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP	2012 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP	Current Estimate of the Historical Level of Potential GDP	2008 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP	2009 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP	2010 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP	2011 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP	2012 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP	Current Projection of the Future Level of Potential GDP	2008 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP	2009 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP	2010 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP	2011 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP	2012 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP	Current Estimate of the Historical Growth Rate of Potential GDP	2008 Real-Time Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP	2009 Real-Time Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP	2010 Real-Time Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP	2011 Real-Time Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP	2012 Real-Time Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP	Current Projection of the Future Growth Rate of Potential GDP	2008 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	2009 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	2010 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	2011 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	2012 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	Current Estimate of the Historical Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	2008 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	2009 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	2010 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	2011 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	2012 Real-Time Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	Current Projection of the Future Level of the Natural Rate of Unemployment	2008 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap	2009 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap	2010 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap	2011 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap	2012 Real-Time Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap	Current Estimate of the Historical Unemployment Gap
2005Q1	12381.59	12371.64	12519.94	12481.91	12430.45	12441.78							2.48	2.57	2.85	2.81	2.79	2.78							4.81	4.87	5.35	5.48	5.62	5.46							0.46	0.40	-0.08	-0.20	-0.34	-0.18
2005Q2	12454.39	12449.23	12600.53	12561.33	12510.37	12521.65							2.59	2.71	2.96	2.93	2.93	2.91							4.77	4.85	5.31	5.44	5.59	5.42							0.34	0.26	-0.21	-0.34	-0.48	-0.31
2005Q3	12533.30	12527.29	12677.49	12637.08	12585.49	12596.88							2.49	2.58	2.81	2.78	2.78	2.77							4.76	4.83	5.29	5.42	5.56	5.39							0.22	0.13	-0.33	-0.46	-0.60	-0.43
2005Q4	12595.79	12592.74	12748.75	12706.35	12654.48	12665.85							2.32	2.43	2.57	2.53	2.53	2.53							4.76	4.89	5.36	5.49	5.64	5.47							0.18	0.03	-0.42	-0.55	-0.69	-0.52
2006Q1	12697.67	12683.56	12839.30	12795.88	12742.34	12754.53							2.55	2.52	2.55	2.52	2.51	2.51							4.68	4.85	5.36	5.48	5.63	5.46							0.02	-0.15	-0.65	-0.77	-0.92	-0.74
2006Q2	12781.75	12767.53	12921.38	12874.84	12820.94	12832.68							2.63	2.56	2.55	2.50	2.48	2.48							4.69	4.89	5.38	5.51	5.67	5.49							-0.03	-0.23	-0.74	-0.87	-1.02	-0.84
2006Q3	12848.09	12838.46	12978.35	12926.87	12873.05	12885.99							2.51	2.48	2.37	2.29	2.28	2.30							4.67	4.90	5.41	5.55	5.71	5.53							-0.01	-0.26	-0.78	-0.92	-1.07	-0.89
2006Q4	12920.11	12912.64	13035.62	12980.03	12925.18	12941.26							2.57	2.54	2.25	2.15	2.14	2.17							4.55	4.76	5.37	5.52	5.68	5.49							-0.12	-0.34	-0.92	-1.08	-1.23	-1.05
2007Q1	12989.04	12989.61	13100.43	13043.01	12985.78	13003.63							2.29	2.41	2.03	1.93	1.91	1.95							4.55	4.70	5.33	5.50	5.65	5.46							-0.06	-0.21	-0.84	-1.00	-1.13	-0.94
2007Q2	13091.26	13096.28	13192.91	13110.26	13054.96	13076.13							2.42	2.57	2.10	1.83	1.83	1.90							4.50	4.66	5.26	5.42	5.56	5.38							0.01	-0.15	-0.79	-0.95	-1.08	-0.89
2007Q3	13196.51	13200.66	13283.09	13178.83	13126.52	13150.64							2.71	2.82	2.35	1.95	1.97	2.05							4.55	4.70	5.28	5.44	5.59	5.40							0.13	-0.04	-0.64	-0.79	-0.94	-0.75
2007Q4	13272.29	13268.47	13384.70	13291.01	13229.73	13255.14							2.73	2.76	2.68	2.40	2.36	2.43							4.50	4.62	5.26	5.42	5.54	5.36							0.30	0.15	-0.44	-0.62	-0.75	-0.56
2008Q1	13342.58	13345.08	13470.21	13398.98	13330.85	13357.40	13342.58						2.72	2.74	2.82	2.73	2.66	2.72	2.72						4.48	4.58	5.18	5.35	5.51	5.33	4.48						0.46	0.36	-0.23	-0.41	-0.53	-0.34
2008Q2		13461.44	13564.60	13497.64	13432.59	13460.80	13409.00							2.79	2.82	2.95	2.89	2.94	2.43							4.65	5.19	5.32	5.50	5.32	4.48							0.71	0.12	-0.01	-0.18	0.01
2008Q3		13578.59	13647.77	13580.99	13496.65	13528.56	13475.87							2.86	2.75	3.05	2.82	2.87	2.12							4.75	5.30	5.35	5.59	5.40	4.49							1.29	0.73	0.68	0.43	0.62
2008Q4		13627.28	13705.71	13634.83	13542.36	13570.25	13543.19							2.70	2.40	2.59	2.36	2.38	2.04							4.77	5.39	5.38	5.58	5.39	4.49							2.08	1.55	1.53	1.32	1.50
2009Q1		13666.05	13741.10	13665.73	13560.37	13553.64	13610.94	13666.05						2.41	2.01	1.99	1.72	1.47	2.01	2.41						5.01	5.54	5.58	5.77	5.70	4.49	5.01						3.06	2.67	2.64	2.52	2.61
2009Q2			13804.69	13691.71	13608.39	13649.71	13679.13	13742.74							1.77	1.44	1.31	1.40	2.01	2.09							5.72	5.80	5.89	5.82	4.50	4.98							3.56	3.49	3.41	3.49
2009Q3			13885.69	13760.82	13683.37	13755.10	13747.74	13819.80							1.74	1.32	1.38	1.67	2.02	1.78							5.63	5.73	5.78	5.65	4.50	4.95							4.03	3.97	3.87	3.98
2009Q4			13968.76	13831.21	13726.39	13820.40	13816.78	13897.24							1.92	1.44	1.36	1.84	2.02	1.98							5.77	5.84	5.88	5.72	4.50	4.93							4.28	4.17	4.09	4.23
2010Q1			14024.20	13889.96	13787.95	13866.46	13886.25	13975.06	14024.20						2.06	1.64	1.68	2.31	2.02	2.26	2.06						5.65	5.77	5.90	5.74	4.50	4.91	5.65						4.06	3.93	3.91	4.10
2010Q2				13956.13	13850.46	13902.22	13956.13	14053.27	14092.37							1.93	1.78	1.85	2.02	2.26	2.08							5.79	5.93	5.72	4.50	4.89	5.62							3.87	3.73	3.95
2010Q3				13991.73	13886.14	13900.25	14026.42	14131.88	14161.95							1.68	1.48	1.06	2.03	2.26	1.99							5.85	6.02	5.82	4.51	4.87	5.59							3.74	3.52	3.68
2010Q4				14026.72	13898.14	13901.89	14097.13	14210.88	14232.88							1.41	1.25	0.59	2.03	2.26	1.89							5.98	6.16	6.00	4.51	4.86	5.57							3.65	3.43	3.56
2011Q1				14044.45	13927.55	13941.42	14168.25	14290.29	14305.07	14044.45						1.11	1.01	0.54	2.03	2.26	2.00	1.11						5.75	5.93	5.81	4.51	4.84	5.55	5.75						3.19	3.06	3.23
2011Q2					13955.40	13971.45	14239.78	14370.12	14378.49	14097.41							0.76	0.50	2.03	2.25	2.03	1.01							6.03	5.90	4.51	4.83	5.53	5.72							3.04	3.16
2011Q3					13983.46	14001.95	14311.72	14450.35	14453.07	14152.77							0.70	0.73	2.03	2.25	2.06	1.15							6.12	5.92	4.51	4.82	5.51	5.70							2.95	3.11
2011Q4					14032.16	14057.60	14384.06	14531.01	14528.77	14210.36							0.96	1.12	2.04	2.25	2.08	1.31							6.02	5.83	4.51	4.80	5.49	5.68							2.69	2.85
2012Q1					14075.41	14101.50	14456.81	14612.09	14605.54	14270.06	14075.41						1.06	1.15	2.04	2.25	2.10	1.61	1.06						5.88	5.72	4.51	4.79	5.47	5.66	5.88						2.36	2.53
2012Q2						14116.10	14529.97	14693.60	14683.34	14331.74	14121.12							1.04	2.04	2.25	2.12	1.66	1.19							5.78	4.51	4.78	5.46	5.64	5.85							2.38
2012Q3						14140.56	14603.53	14775.54	14762.13	14395.28	14169.93							0.99	2.04	2.25	2.14	1.71	1.33							5.75	4.51	4.77	5.44	5.63	5.83							2.28
2012Q4						14184.32	14677.49	14857.91	14841.87	14460.58	14221.62							0.90	2.04	2.25	2.16	1.76	1.35							5.77	4.51	4.76	5.43	5.61	5.81							2.06
2013Q1						14255.89		14940.73	14922.54	14527.54	14276.02	14255.89						1.09		2.25	2.17	1.80	1.43	1.09						5.78		4.76	5.42	5.60	5.80	5.78						1.96
2013Q2								15023.99	15004.11	14596.07	14332.95	14313.42								2.25	2.18	1.84	1.50	1.40								4.75	5.41	5.59	5.78	5.75
2013Q3								15107.69	15086.54	14666.09	14392.25	14373.28								2.25	2.20	1.88	1.57	1.65								4.74	5.40	5.58	5.76	5.72
2013Q4								15191.85	15169.82	14737.52	14453.78	14435.32								2.25	2.21	1.92	1.63	1.77								4.74	5.39	5.56	5.75	5.70
2014Q1									15253.92	14810.29	14517.41	14499.41									2.22	1.95	1.69	1.71									5.38	5.56	5.74	5.67
2014Q2									15338.82	14884.34	14583.00	14565.44									2.23	1.98	1.74	1.76									5.37	5.55	5.72	5.65
2014Q3									15424.50	14959.62	14650.46	14633.29									2.24	2.00	1.79	1.81									5.37	5.54	5.71	5.63
2014Q4									15510.94	15036.06	14719.67	14702.86									2.25	2.03	1.84	1.85									5.36	5.53	5.70	5.61
2015Q1										15113.63	14790.55	14774.07										2.05	1.88	1.89										5.52	5.69	5.60
2015Q2										15192.26	14863.00	14846.83										2.07	1.92	1.93										5.52	5.68	5.58
2015Q3										15271.93	14936.96	14921.05										2.09	1.96	1.97										5.51	5.68	5.57
2015Q4										15352.59	15012.33	14996.68										2.11	1.99	2.00										5.51	5.67	5.55
2016Q1											15089.07	15073.65											2.02	2.03											5.66	5.54
2016Q2											15167.10	15151.89											2.05	2.05											5.66	5.53
2016Q3											15246.36	15231.35											2.07	2.08											5.65	5.52
2016Q4											15326.82	15311.97											2.09	2.10											5.65	5.51
2017Q1												15393.73												2.12												5.50
2017Q2												15476.56												2.14												5.49
2017Q3												15560.44												2.16												5.49
2017Q4												15645.32												2.18												5.48

Return to Figure 1.3

Figure 2.1 - Employment Losses in Housing-Related Industries

	Private Employment	Construction Employment	Real Estate Employment	Mortgage Finance Employment
Jan 04	94.71	88.65	93.43	86.73
Feb 04	94.73	88.52	93.46	87.39
Mar 04	94.99	89.15	93.69	92.26
Apr 04	95.18	89.33	94.13	93.07
May 04	95.45	89.94	94.91	93.58
Jun 04	95.53	90.12	94.61	93.44
Jul 04	95.55	90.32	94.45	93.44
Aug 04	95.65	90.65	94.86	95.43
Sep 04	95.77	90.99	95.42	93.73
Oct 04	96.05	91.61	95.41	96.61
Nov 04	96.08	91.79	95.79	97.05
Dec 04	96.19	92.13	95.99	98.38
Jan 05	96.26	91.84	95.82	98.08
Feb 05	96.46	92.6	96.2	100.22
Mar 05	96.59	92.96	96.28	101.33
Apr 05	96.89	94.06	96.45	101.33
May 05	97.01	94.42	96.74	102.43
Jun 05	97.24	94.93	97.16	104.87
Jul 05	97.48	95.18	97.74	103.98
Aug 05	97.64	95.72	98.2	106.05
Sep 05	97.72	95.99	98.45	105.9
Oct 05	97.8	96.57	98.9	107.37
Nov 05	98.06	97.4	99.04	106.64
Dec 05	98.18	97.51	99.34	108.04
Jan 06	98.45	98.39	99.91	107.74
Feb 06	98.7	99.21	100.18	108.41
Mar 06	98.92	99.53	99.8	107.96
Apr 06	99.06	100.01	100.41	109.29
May 06	99.08	99.84	100.16	108.33
Jun 06	99.15	99.66	100.29	107.15
Jul 06	99.29	99.83	100.11	107.3
Aug 06	99.41	99.94	100.09	105.75
Sep 06	99.49	99.91	99.93	104.94
Oct 06	99.5	99.44	99.45	106.34
Nov 06	99.66	99.24	100.02	104.87
Dec 06	99.8	99.48	99.95	104.06
Jan 07	100	100	100	100
Feb 07	100.05	98.72	100.07	101.7
Mar 07	100.19	99.75	100.27	100.96
Apr 07	100.24	99.5	100.31	99.48
May 07	100.34	99.33	100.34	94.25
Jun 07	100.4	99.51	100.3	92.04
Jul 07	100.4	99.16	100.29	87.98
Aug 07	100.33	98.51	100.16	86.87
Sep 07	100.35	98.08	100.07	83.04
Oct 07	100.41	97.93	99.97	78.83
Nov 07	100.48	97.39	99.61	75.66
Dec 07	100.52	96.96	99.55	72.57
Jan 08	100.52	96.78	99.6	68.29
Feb 08	100.42	96.48	99.48	67.48
Mar 08	100.33	95.87	99.5	65.04
Apr 08	100.14	94.85	99.35	63.27
May 08	99.95	94.16	99.51	62.46
Jun 08	99.77	93.37	99.82	61.95
Jul 08	99.54	92.69	99.29	60.55
Aug 08	99.31	92.09	99.29	59.59
Sep 08	98.93	91.18	98.63	58.55
Oct 08	98.51	90.19	98.39	55.46
Nov 08	97.83	88.19	97.96	54.13
Dec 08	97.22	86.74	97.65	53.1
Jan 09	96.51	84.84	96.94	51.62
Feb 09	95.91	83.53	96.16	51.18
Mar 09	95.2	81.44	95.66	51.03
Apr 09	94.49	79.6	94.83	51.11
May 09	94.24	79	94.21	48.97
Jun 09	93.85	77.77	94.18	49.48
Jul 09	93.61	76.74	94.27	47.79
Aug 09	93.42	75.74	94.07	47.12
Sep 09	93.27	74.89	94.25	47.35
Oct 09	93.07	74.1	94.1	45.94
Nov 09	93.04	73.7	94.61	47.12
Dec 09	92.9	73.14	94.09	46.98
Jan 10	92.88	72.25	94.01	44.76
Feb 10	92.86	71.48	93.92	45.06
Mar 10	92.96	71.74	93.48	44.69
Apr 10	93.1	71.9	93.76	44.76
May 10	93.19	71.55	93.25	45.58
Jun 10	93.27	71.35	92.94	44.99
Jul 10	93.36	71.16	92.55	45.28
Aug 10	93.48	71.44	92.73	45.5
Sep 10	93.57	71.18	92.91	47.05
Oct 10	93.74	71.21	92.91	48.82
Nov 10	93.87	71.16	92.76	49.04
Dec 10	93.97	70.78	93.11	48.16
Jan 11	94.04	70.36	92.92	45.13
Feb 11	94.25	70.91	93.11	44.91
Mar 11	94.44	71	93.22	43.51
Apr 11	94.71	71.16	93.61	42.26
May 11	94.87	71.51	93.95	41.59
Jun 11	95.02	71.59	93.57	40.71
Jul 11	95.2	71.81	93.59	41.15
Aug 11	95.31	71.79	93.66	40.78
Sep 11	95.53	72.27	93.23	41.81
Oct 11	95.69	72.18	93.68	43.36
Nov 11	95.86	72.19	93.89	44.17
Dec 11	96.07	72.65	93.79	44.91
Jan 12	96.35	72.87	94	43.81
Feb 12	96.58	73.06	94.17	44.76
Mar 12	96.77	73.01	94.37	45.65
Apr 12	96.87	72.96	94.36	47.64
May 12	97	72.69	94.55	49.19
Jun 12	97.07	72.78	94.67	51.7
Jul 12	97.22	72.84	94.61	52.95
Aug 12	97.34	72.88	94.29	54.35
Sep 12	97.44	72.92	94.71	54.87
Oct 12	97.63	73.13	94.69	55.9
Nov 12	97.85	73.44	94.73	56.49
Dec 12	98.05	73.93	94.96	56.93
Jan 13	98.19	74.24	95.23	56.49
Feb 13	98.47	74.86	95.6	56.71
Mar 13	98.6	75.07	95.9	57.08
Apr 13	98.76	74.98	95.78	58.92
May 13	98.92	74.96	96.16	58.33
Jun 13	99.09	75.09	96.41	58.19
Jul 13	99.18	75.13	96.84	59.37
Aug 13	99.36	75.15	96.79	57.74
Sep 13	99.49	75.38	96.85	55.9
Oct 13	99.67	75.52	97.1
Nov 13
Dec 13

Return to Figure 2.1

Figure 2.2 - Dispersion in Employment Change Across Industries

	Idiosyncratic dispersion	Total dispersion	Dispersion attributed to usual cyclicality
61:1		13.4
61:2		8.69
61:3	-1.12	5.4	3.12
61:4	-1.16	2.17	0.44
62:1	0.13	2.69	0.08
62:2	0.05	2.06	0.1
62:3	1.19	2.06	-0.91
62:4	0.63	1.77	-0.83
63:1	0.29	2.29	-0.18
63:2	-1.06	1.81	0.39
63:3	-1.54	1.38	0.37
63:4	-1.16	1.6	0.3
64:1	-0.52	1.41	-0.33
64:2	0.52	1.62	-1.05
64:3	0.47	1.29	-1.18
64:4	-0.45	0.97	-0.63
65:1	-1.44	0.82	0.09
65:2	-0.94	1.4	0.14
65:3	-0.44	1.88	0.18
65:4	0.39	2.81	0.41
66:1	2.82	2.94	-1.61
66:2	6.32	4.5	-3.18
66:3	5.97	3.87	-3.47
66:4	6.83	5.67	-2.74
67:1	3.74	4.35	-1.3
67:2	2.48	5.62	0.9
67:3	0.88	6.01	2.62
67:4	0.19	5.18	2.43
68:1	-0.18	3.83	1.5
68:2	-1.02	1.76	0.35
68:3	-0.04	1.1	-1.02
68:4	1.26	1.29	-1.87
69:1	0.92	1.95	-0.92
69:2	0.78	2.41	-0.44
69:3	0.07	2.34	0.05
69:4	-0.17	2.45	0.16
70:1	-0.16	3.87	1.48
70:2	-0.79	7.13	5.15
70:3	-0.35	10.64	7.93
70:4	3.3	18.59	12.24
71:1	1.53	13.62	9.11
71:2	2.93	10.03	4.19
71:3	4.38	8.61	1.81
71:4	0.88	3.77	0.57
72:1	1.81	3.75	-0.35
72:2	-0.03	2.35	0.3
72:3	-0.45	1.68	-0.02
72:4	1.07	2.55	-0.36
73:1	0.43	2.96	0.79
73:2	0.29	2.73	0.93
73:3	-0.45	3.21	2.2
73:4	-0.87	1.93	1.05
74:1	-0.85	1.33	0.09
74:2	-0.89	2.37	0.89
74:3	0.1	5.76	2.74
74:4	-0.03	12.07	9.06
75:1	5.56	29.22	20.57
75:2	7.37	37.27	26.63
75:3	6.65	30.85	20.95
75:4	2.79	15.98	10.17
76:1	0.64	3.29	0.21
76:2	-0.14	2.34	0.47
76:3	0.82	2.23	-0.07
76:4	1.1	2.09	-0.56
77:1	0.18	2.13	0.17
77:2	-0.19	2.51	0.81
77:3	0.03	2.86	0.84
77:4	0.76	3.12	0.62
78:1	0.38	1.7	-0.27
78:2	1.11	2.53	-0.28
78:3	2.1	3.66	-0.22
78:4	1.8	3.72	0.44
79:1	2.34	3.95	0.06
79:2	1.34	3.17	0.42
79:3	0.05	2.29	0.61
79:4	-0.01	2.54	0.27
80:1	0.36	3.77	1.04
80:2	0.55	9.57	6.44
80:3	1.26	12.97	9.05
80:4	0.17	9.25	6.04
81:1	1.09	7.88	3.71
81:2	2.15	3.94	-0.93
81:3	4.98	6.23	-1.1
81:4	3.07	6.64	1.44
82:1	1.96	7.58	3.5
82:2	1.8	11.84	7.29
82:3	1.88	14.34	9.16
82:4	3.03	17.24	11.1
83:1	2.59	14.48	8.66
83:2	2.37	9.83	4.61
83:3	1.57	4.94	1.09
83:4	0.76	4.95	2.33
84:1	1.37	7	4.23
84:2	2.1	7.62	4.44
84:3	2.41	5.52	2.11
84:4	4.25	4.26	-1.13
85:1	5.13	3.84	-2.46
85:2	6.29	5.7	-2.01
85:3	7.19	7.11	-1.68
85:4	6.91	7.07	-1.55
86:1	7.02	6.55	-2.09
86:2	7.84	7.61	-1.86
86:3	7.53	7.94	-1.26
86:4	6.01	7.31	-0.47
87:1	4.48	6.49	0.13
87:2	1.73	3.93	0.3
87:3	0.41	2.42	0.1
87:4	0.02	1.54	-0.27
88:1	0.36	1.55	-0.56
88:2	0.99	1.57	-0.99
88:3	1.74	2.35	-0.97
88:4	2.57	3.03	-1.12
89:1	2.3	3.06	-0.88
89:2	2.41	3.19	-0.9
89:3	2.69	2.95	-1.36
89:4	1.6	2.87	-0.45
90:1	1.55	3.16	-0.13
90:2	0.81	3.49	0.76
90:3	0.95	4.19	1.3
90:4	-0.14	4.78	2.85
91:1	0.91	9.27	6.1
91:2	0.84	9.56	6.22
91:3	-0.07	8.74	6.08
91:4	0.17	7.65	4.88
92:1	-0.02	5.48	3.07
92:2	0.65	4.22	1.44
92:3	2.48	4.1	-0.22
92:4	2.29	3.23	-0.81
93:1	1.56	2.59	-0.63
93:2	1.79	2.92	-0.49
93:3	1.23	3	-0.05
93:4	1.12	3.01	-0.02
94:1	0.7	2.69	0.03
94:2	0.88	2.92	0.19
94:3	1.06	3.18	0.43
94:4	1.3	3.36	0.5
95:1	2.26	4.22	0.39
95:2	1.81	3.53	0.06
95:3	1.38	3.15	-0.03
95:4	1.06	2.7	-0.31
96:1	0.54	2.33	-0.14
96:2	1.08	2.99	-0.04
96:3	1.26	3.03	-0.05
96:4	1.25	3.01	0.18
97:1	1.69	3.36	0.14
97:2	2.14	3.75	0.14
97:3	2.1	3.72	0.15
97:4	1.79	3.55	0.25
98:1	1.53	3.46	0.45
98:2	1.02	2.91	0.36
98:3	1.31	3.05	0.21
98:4	2.17	3.97	0.17
99:1	3.46	4.69	-0.37
99:2	4.37	5.32	-0.53
99:3	3.58	4.8	-0.28
99:4	3.42	4.65	-0.29
00:1	2.6	3.98	-0.16
00:2	2.05	3.1	-0.47
00:3	1.07	2.29	-0.36
00:4	0.58	1.82	-0.22
01:1	0.32	2.22	0.2
01:2	1.02	4.04	1.1
01:3	2.74	8.33	3.54
01:4	5.51	14.1	6.32
02:1	7.06	16.38	7.03
02:2	4.96	12.91	5.69
02:3	3.96	9.33	3.34
02:4	2.2	6.49	2.31
03:1	1.82	5.45	1.76
03:2	2.06	5.63	1.66
03:3	2.25	5.32	1.14
03:4	2.27	4.07	0.03
04:1	2.32	3.08	-0.75
04:2	1.74	2.47	-0.6
04:3	0.79	2	-0.1
04:4	0.56	2.04	0.13
05:1	0.6	2.15	0.09
05:2	1.12	2.67	0.08
05:3	1.57	2.92	-0.04
05:4	1.43	2.97	0.12
06:1	1.74	3.57	0.39
06:2	1.43	3.08	0.17
06:3	0.95	2.54	0.12
06:4	0.62	2.08	-0.07
07:1	0.14	2.01	0.23
07:2	0.25	2.15	0.27
07:3	0.22	2.37	0.38
07:4	0.55	2.46	0.25
08:1	0.77	2.78	0.43
08:2	1.22	4.16	1.26
08:3	0.91	5.94	3.18
08:4	0.79	9.52	6.74
09:1	2.76	18.14	13.08
09:2	2.77	25.33	19.84
09:3	3.58	26.07	19.72
09:4	4.55	21.78	14.53
10:1	3.54	12.26	6.39
10:2	4.11	5.58	-0.22
10:3	3.31	3.26	-1.43
10:4	2.78	3.13	-0.87
11:1	1.76	3.17	0.2
11:2	2.98	4.89	0.59
11:3	2.06	3.82	0.28
11:4	1.74	3.38	0.11
12:1	2.04	3.7	0.1
12:2	0.83	2.65	0.36
12:3	0.37	1.72	0.07
12:4	-0.19	1.37	0.19
13:1	-0.33	1.12	0.06
13:2	0.03	1.53	-0.1
13:3	0.43	1.81	-0.32
13:4	-0.07	1.46	-0.12

Return to Figure 2.2

Figure 2.3 - Variance in Cumulative Change in Industry Employment Shares over the Business Cycle

Quarters since peak	Business cycle peak 2007:Q4	Business cycle peak 2001:Q1	Business cycle peak 1990:Q3	Business cycle peak 1981:Q3	Business cycle peak 1973:Q4
1	0.01	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.01
2	0.1	0.35	0.19	0.22	0.03
3	0.29	0.81	0.39	0.48	0.15
4	0.74	1.26	0.54	0.88	0.65
5	1.8	1.52	0.73	1.61	2.61
6	3.17	1.81	0.89	1.67	3.94
7	3.82	2.03	0.94	1.35	3.95
8	4.28	2.35	1.09	1.03	3.35
9	4.47	2.58	1.02	0.62	2.49
10	4.73	2.53	0.91	0.53	2.08
11	3.99	2.4	0.88	0.48	1.89
12	3.63	2.31	0.84	0.47	1.76
13	3.33	2.05	0.69	0.64	1.26
14	2.96	1.91	0.61	0.74	0.82
15	2.69	1.84	0.48	0.94	0.7
16	2.49	1.78	0.41	1	0.63
17	2.28	1.68	0.38	1.13	0.53
18	2.27	1.59	0.41	1.2	0.33
19	2.25	1.49	0.44	1.44	0.25
20	2.14	1.43	0.44	1.66	0.26
21	1.96	1.38	0.45	1.7	0.35
22	1.91	1.35	0.45	1.73	0.33
23	1.91	1.36	0.46	1.8	0.28
24		1.29	0.51	1.75	0.32

Return to Figure 2.3

Figure 2.4 - Permanent Job Loss

	Stock of permanent job losers (percent of labor force)	Rate of permanent job loss (percent of employment)
Jan 80	1.94	0.8
Feb 80	1.88	0.64
Mar 80	1.93	0.63
Apr 80	2.11	0.67
May 80	2.26	0.73
Jun 80	2.29	0.74
Jul 80	2.52	0.83
Aug 80	2.5	0.83
Sep 80	2.5	0.78
Oct 80	2.47	0.77
Nov 80	2.63	0.8
Dec 80	2.57	0.75
Jan 81	2.52	0.83
Feb 81	2.57	0.76
Mar 81	2.44	0.73
Apr 81	2.41	0.68
May 81	2.48	0.72
Jun 81	2.59	0.85
Jul 81	2.46	0.8
Aug 81	2.63	0.79
Sep 81	2.74	0.87
Oct 81	2.66	0.89
Nov 81	2.81	0.96
Dec 81	3.01	0.95
Jan 82	3.18	1.17
Feb 82	3.17	0.98
Mar 82	3.43	0.97
Apr 82	3.55	0.88
May 82	3.6	0.91
Jun 82	3.73	1.06
Jul 82	3.83	1.03
Aug 82	3.76	1.04
Sep 82	3.93	1.15
Oct 82	4.32	1.26
Nov 82	4.4	1.17
Dec 82	4.3	1.01
Jan 83	4.23	1.05
Feb 83	4.35	1
Mar 83	4.4	0.91
Apr 83	4.29	0.84
May 83	4.35	0.85
Jun 83	4.21	0.95
Jul 83	4	1.01
Aug 83	3.98	0.96
Sep 83	3.86	1.09
Oct 83	3.69	1.01
Nov 83	3.49	0.89
Dec 83	3.35	0.88
Jan 84	3.21	0.99
Feb 84	3.11	0.87
Mar 84	2.99	0.82
Apr 84	2.99	0.76
May 84	2.77	0.64
Jun 84	2.7	0.71
Jul 84	2.9	0.93
Aug 84	2.68	0.82
Sep 84	2.69	0.84
Oct 84	2.74	0.87
Nov 84	2.72	0.87
Dec 84	2.76	0.84
Jan 85	2.7	0.98
Feb 85	2.64	0.82
Mar 85	2.6	0.78
Apr 85	2.59	0.75
May 85	2.46	0.64
Jun 85	2.59	0.82
Jul 85	2.74	0.89
Aug 85	2.61	0.87
Sep 85	2.53	0.8
Oct 85	2.51	0.82
Nov 85	2.53	0.82
Dec 85	2.47	0.75
Jan 86	2.27	0.83
Feb 86	2.56	0.82
Mar 86	2.61	0.72
Apr 86	2.5	0.77
May 86	2.61	0.76
Jun 86	2.72	0.81
Jul 86	2.53	0.8
Aug 86	2.41	0.76
Sep 86	2.54	0.79
Oct 86	2.49	0.82
Nov 86	2.42	0.76
Dec 86	2.38	0.78
Jan 87	2.39	0.87
Feb 87	2.37	0.76
Mar 87	2.36	0.68
Apr 87	2.29	0.68
May 87	2.22	0.62
Jun 87	2.26	0.62
Jul 87	2.17	0.71
Aug 87	2.09	0.68
Sep 87	2.07	0.64
Oct 87	2.09	0.7
Nov 87	2	0.69
Dec 87	1.92	0.64
Jan 88	1.88	0.69
Feb 88	1.9	0.62
Mar 88	1.88	0.51
Apr 88	1.72	0.59
May 88	1.99	0.65
Jun 88	1.85	0.62
Jul 88	1.85	0.6
Aug 88	1.82	0.59
Sep 88	1.85	0.65
Oct 88	1.76	0.61
Nov 88	1.79	0.67
Dec 88	1.82	0.63
Jan 89	1.82	0.76
Feb 89	1.69	0.7
Mar 89	1.67	0.55
Apr 89	1.7	0.62
May 89	1.58	0.54
Jun 89	1.61	0.61
Jul 89	1.7	0.6
Aug 89	1.69	0.57
Sep 89	1.69	0.6
Oct 89	1.79	0.67
Nov 89	1.73	0.64
Dec 89	1.73	0.62
Jan 90	1.71	0.65
Feb 90	1.68	0.67
Mar 90	1.71	0.6
Apr 90	1.75	0.64
May 90	1.74	0.59
Jun 90	1.8	0.64
Jul 90	1.82	0.66
Aug 90	1.96	0.76
Sep 90	1.96	0.64
Oct 90	2.08	0.69
Nov 90	2.19	0.84
Dec 90	2.18	0.69
Jan 91	2.42	0.9
Feb 91	2.4	0.77
Mar 91	2.61	0.73
Apr 91	2.56	0.7
May 91	2.62	0.74
Jun 91	2.71	0.79
Jul 91	2.81	0.78
Aug 91	2.75	0.85
Sep 91	2.9	0.85
Oct 91	2.82	0.8
Nov 91	2.87	0.84
Dec 91	2.99	0.84
Jan 92	3	0.89
Feb 92	3.21	0.83
Mar 92	3.25	0.81
Apr 92	3.23	0.7
May 92	3.41	0.82
Jun 92	3.37	0.85
Jul 92	3.3	0.8
Aug 92	3.26	0.79
Sep 92	3.14	0.81
Oct 92	3.27	0.81
Nov 92	3.16	0.77
Dec 92	3.06	0.71
Jan 93	3.09	0.92
Feb 93	2.97	0.76
Mar 93	3	0.7
Apr 93	3.05	0.78
May 93	2.83	0.66
Jun 93	2.96	0.7
Jul 93	2.92	0.75
Aug 93	2.85	0.71
Sep 93	2.76	0.68
Oct 93	2.72	0.66
Nov 93	2.69	0.67
Dec 93	2.63	0.7
Jan 94	2.44	0.89
Feb 94	2.39	0.56
Mar 94	2.36	0.59
Apr 94	2.23	0.56
May 94	2.11	0.5
Jun 94	2.15	0.63
Jul 94	2.15	0.68
Aug 94	2.05	0.63
Sep 94	2.1	0.61
Oct 94	2.05	0.51
Nov 94	2.01	0.61
Dec 94	1.88	0.52
Jan 95	1.92	0.75
Feb 95	1.78	0.48
Mar 95	1.78	0.56
Apr 95	1.83	0.47
May 95	1.95	0.58
Jun 95	1.78	0.59
Jul 95	1.81	0.59
Aug 95	1.81	0.57
Sep 95	1.9	0.62
Oct 95	1.88	0.55
Nov 95	1.87	0.63
Dec 95	1.86	0.49
Jan 96	1.84	0.69
Feb 96	1.87	0.6
Mar 96	1.85	0.47
Apr 96	1.94	0.5
May 96	1.75	0.57
Jun 96	1.76	0.52
Jul 96	1.76	0.56
Aug 96	1.6	0.49
Sep 96	1.65	0.47
Oct 96	1.64	0.45
Nov 96	1.72	0.58
Dec 96	1.63	0.46
Jan 97	1.68	0.7
Feb 97	1.63	0.53
Mar 97	1.59	0.47
Apr 97	1.53	0.4
May 97	1.51	0.47
Jun 97	1.59	0.55
Jul 97	1.48	0.41
Aug 97	1.56	0.49
Sep 97	1.54	0.5
Oct 97	1.41	0.48
Nov 97	1.51	0.5
Dec 97	1.5	0.44
Jan 98	1.45	0.63
Feb 98	1.45	0.53
Mar 98	1.44	0.51
Apr 98	1.43	0.5
May 98	1.46	0.51
Jun 98	1.43	0.52
Jul 98	1.38	0.54
Aug 98	1.4	0.52
Sep 98	1.41	0.52
Oct 98	1.41	0.53
Nov 98	1.41	0.5
Dec 98	1.41	0.51
Jan 99	1.33	0.56
Feb 99	1.35	0.51
Mar 99	1.27	0.48
Apr 99	1.32	0.51
May 99	1.32	0.48
Jun 99	1.27	0.51
Jul 99	1.32	0.52
Aug 99	1.27	0.54
Sep 99	1.2	0.53
Oct 99	1.23	0.54
Nov 99	1.19	0.44
Dec 99	1.18	0.46
Jan 00	1.25	0.6
Feb 00	1.27	0.49
Mar 00	1.2	0.5
Apr 00	1.11	0.4
May 00	1.12	0.46
Jun 00	1.03	0.45
Jul 00	1.13	0.5
Aug 00	1.21	0.5
Sep 00	1.17	0.53
Oct 00	1.15	0.45
Nov 00	1.14	0.44
Dec 00	1.14	0.37
Jan 01	1.24	0.52
Feb 01	1.35	0.6
Mar 01	1.42	0.51
Apr 01	1.42	0.58
May 01	1.46	0.6
Jun 01	1.59	0.67
Jul 01	1.64	0.54
Aug 01	1.69	0.66
Sep 01	1.71	0.7
Oct 01	2.08	0.76
Nov 01	2.28	0.78
Dec 01	2.31	0.62
Jan 02	2.32	0.87
Feb 02	2.3	0.74
Mar 02	2.31	0.68
Apr 02	2.41	0.62
May 02	2.43	0.61
Jun 02	2.46	0.68
Jul 02	2.37	0.64
Aug 02	2.36	0.7
Sep 02	2.4	0.68
Oct 02	2.47	0.67
Nov 02	2.52	0.71
Dec 02	2.52	0.6
Jan 03	2.47	0.78
Feb 03	2.5	0.66
Mar 03	2.48	0.64
Apr 03	2.51	0.62
May 03	2.63	0.66
Jun 03	2.6	0.72
Jul 03	2.62	0.7
Aug 03	2.66	0.74
Sep 03	2.6	0.66
Oct 03	2.54	0.65
Nov 03	2.45	0.57
Dec 03	2.36	0.58
Jan 04	2.28	0.66
Feb 04	2.2	0.55
Mar 04	2.41	0.58
Apr 04	2.27	0.57
May 04	2.2	0.58
Jun 04	2.11	0.61
Jul 04	2.14	0.66
Aug 04	2.04	0.61
Sep 04	2.1	0.69
Oct 04	2.12	0.64
Nov 04	2.1	0.56
Dec 04	2.07	0.59
Jan 05	2.07	0.63
Feb 05	1.98	0.59
Mar 05	1.9	0.47
Apr 05	1.89	0.52
May 05	1.83	0.51
Jun 05	1.79	0.59
Jul 05	1.77	0.59
Aug 05	1.7	0.54
Sep 05	1.81	0.62
Oct 05	1.74	0.58
Nov 05	1.74	0.48
Dec 05	1.7	0.5
Jan 06	1.65	0.59
Feb 06	1.64	0.5
Mar 06	1.65	0.55
Apr 06	1.74	0.51
May 06	1.68	0.49
Jun 06	1.56	0.58
Jul 06	1.57	0.54
Aug 06	1.57	0.51
Sep 06	1.55	0.52
Oct 06	1.43	0.46
Nov 06	1.5	0.46
Dec 06	1.49	0.57
Jan 07	1.56	0.55
Feb 07	1.54	0.54
Mar 07	1.51	0.45
Apr 07	1.54	0.42
May 07	1.57	0.45
Jun 07	1.63	0.53
Jul 07	1.73	0.52
Aug 07	1.74	0.57
Sep 07	1.74	0.54
Oct 07	1.74	0.52
Nov 07	1.75	0.51
Dec 07	1.89	0.58
Jan 08	1.81	0.6
Feb 08	1.89	0.61
Mar 08	1.98	0.62
Apr 08	1.92	0.48
May 08	2.06	0.68
Jun 08	2.14	0.61
Jul 08	2.24	0.61
Aug 08	2.39	0.73
Sep 08	2.53	0.67
Oct 08	2.83	0.79
Nov 08	3.11	0.88
Dec 08	3.33	0.83
Jan 09	3.86	1.31
Feb 09	4.25	1.01
Mar 09	4.49	0.94
Apr 09	4.71	0.87
May 09	4.93	0.89
Jun 09	5.05	0.89
Jul 09	5.01	0.87
Aug 09	5.17	0.82
Sep 09	5.24	0.81
Oct 09	5.37	0.88
Nov 09	5.34	0.74
Dec 09	5.29	0.84
Jan 10	5.14	0.88
Feb 10	5.23	0.73
Mar 10	5.14	0.65
Apr 10	5.19	0.66
May 10	5.04	0.63
Jun 10	5	0.72
Jul 10	5.07	0.82
Aug 10	4.99	0.71
Sep 10	5.06	0.84
Oct 10	4.95	0.7
Nov 10	5.21	0.79
Dec 10	4.84	0.66
Jan 11	4.75	0.9
Feb 11	4.64	0.59
Mar 11	4.62	0.59
Apr 11	4.57	0.57
May 11	4.57	0.63
Jun 11	4.53	0.79
Jul 11	4.5	0.68
Aug 11	4.46	0.66
Sep 11	4.41	0.76
Oct 11	4.31	0.67
Nov 11	4.18	0.55
Dec 11	4.08	0.65
Jan 12	3.9	0.69
Feb 12	3.91	0.6
Mar 12	3.81	0.56
Apr 12	3.74	0.55
May 12	3.77	0.59
Jun 12	3.75	0.66
Jul 12	3.66	0.66
Aug 12	3.7	0.69
Sep 12	3.44	0.66
Oct 12	3.51	0.59
Nov 12	3.44	0.55
Dec 12	3.42	0.69
Jan 13	3.52	0.74
Feb 13	3.5	0.66
Mar 13	3.37	0.46
Apr 13	3.38	0.49
May 13	3.31	0.59
Jun 13	3.16	0.55
Jul 13	3.02	0.56
Aug 13	3.16	0.68
Sep 13	3.06	0.62
Oct 13	3.05	0.62
Nov 13
Dec 13

Return to Figure 2.4

Figure 2.5 - Beveridge Curve

	Job openings rate (percent)	Unemployment rate (percent)
01:1	3.4	4.2
01:2	3.12	4.4
01:3	2.87	4.8
01:4	2.47	5.5
02:1	2.43	5.7
02:2	2.33	5.8
02:3	2.32	5.7
02:4	2.33	5.8
03:1	2.29	5.9
03:2	2.14	6.2
03:3	2.13	6.1
03:4	2.2	5.8
04:1	2.3	5.7
04:2	2.39	5.6
04:3	2.53	5.4
04:4	2.48	5.4
05:1	2.54	5.3
05:2	2.68	5.1
05:3	2.79	5
05:4	2.87	5
06:1	2.89	4.7
06:2	2.92	4.7
06:3	2.89	4.6
06:4	3	4.5
07:1	3	4.5
07:2	2.98	4.5
07:3	2.92	4.7
07:4	2.8	4.8
08:1	2.65	5
08:2	2.52	5.3
08:3	2.3	6
08:4	2.06	6.9
09:1	1.77	8.3
09:2	1.53	9.3
09:3	1.5	9.6
09:4	1.57	9.9
10:1	1.72	9.8
10:2	1.87	9.6
10:3	1.86	9.5
10:4	1.95	9.5
11:1	1.95	9
11:2	1.99	9.1
11:3	2.15	9
11:4	2.12	8.7
12:1	2.33	8.2
12:2	2.39	8.2
12:3	2.31	8
12:4	2.37	7.8
13:1	2.44	7.7
13:2	2.48	7.5
13:3	2.47	7.35

Return to Figure 2.5

Figure 2.6 - Barnichon-Figura Estimate of Matching Efficiency

	Mismatch (percentage points)
80:1	0.06
80:2	-0.39
80:3	0
80:4	0.12
81:1	0.17
81:2	0.12
81:3	0.34
81:4	-0.26
82:1	-0.03
82:2	0.08
82:3	-0.07
82:4	0.27
83:1	0.65
83:2	0.39
83:3	0.48
83:4	0.74
84:1	0.39
84:2	0.55
84:3	0.43
84:4	0.66
85:1	0.08
85:2	0.32
85:3	0.42
85:4	0.59
86:1	0.11
86:2	0.36
86:3	0.54
86:4	0.23
87:1	0.24
87:2	0.33
87:3	0.3
87:4	0.19
88:1	0.41
88:2	-0.07
88:3	-0.05
88:4	0.44
89:1	-0.02
89:2	-0.15
89:3	-0.2
89:4	-0.32
90:1	-0.44
90:2	-0.04
90:3	0.09
90:4	-0.19
91:1	-0.26
91:2	-0.34
91:3	-0.29
91:4	0.01
92:1	-0.09
92:2	0.05
92:3	0.1
92:4	-0.02
93:1	0.22
93:2	0.06
93:3	0.19
93:4	0.03
94:1	-0.03
94:2	-0.02
94:3	-0.21
94:4	-0.14
95:1	-0.23
95:2	-0.16
95:3	-0.23
95:4	0.04
96:1	-0.06
96:2	0.04
96:3	-0.24
96:4	-0.04
97:1	-0.28
97:2	-0.22
97:3	0.02
97:4	-0.19
98:1	-0.08
98:2	-0.21
98:3	-0.26
98:4	-0.2
99:1	-0.27
99:2	-0.04
99:3	-0.32
99:4	-0.48
00:1	-0.37
00:2	-0.24
00:3	-0.41
00:4	-0.21
01:1	-0.34
01:2	-0.66
01:3	-0.6
01:4	-0.57
02:1	-0.54
02:2	-0.01
02:3	-0.29
02:4	0
03:1	0.07
03:2	-0.08
03:3	0.12
03:4	-0.08
04:1	0.21
04:2	-0.04
04:3	-0.14
04:4	-0.26
05:1	0.14
05:2	0.17
05:3	0.2
05:4	0.28
06:1	0.3
06:2	-0.04
06:3	-0.26
06:4	-0.11
07:1	-0.22
07:2	0.24
07:3	0.06
07:4	0.06
08:1	0.09
08:2	0.07
08:3	0.26
08:4	0.73
09:1	0.77
09:2	0.78
09:3	0.94
09:4	1.45
10:1	1.19
10:2	1.12
10:3	1.38
10:4	1.34
11:1	1.6
11:2	1.61
11:3	1.49
11:4	1.26
12:1	1.34
12:2	1.54
12:3	1.45
12:4	1.6
13:1	1.55
13:2	1.2
13:3	1.28
13:4	1.85

Return to Figure 2.6

Figure 2.7 - Long-Term Unemployment

	Long-term unemployed (percent of labor force)
80:1	0.52
80:2	0.68
80:3	0.87
80:4	1.04
81:1	1.15
81:2	1.04
81:3	1.03
81:4	1.05
82:1	1.16
82:2	1.48
82:3	1.72
82:4	2.15
83:1	2.45
83:2	2.5
83:3	2.25
83:4	1.93
84:1	1.68
84:2	1.48
84:3	1.33
84:4	1.24
85:1	1.16
85:2	1.13
85:3	1.07
85:4	1.06
86:1	0.98
86:2	1.03
86:3	1.03
86:4	0.99
87:1	0.94
87:2	0.91
87:3	0.84
87:4	0.77
88:1	0.72
88:2	0.68
88:3	0.66
88:4	0.6
89:1	0.55
89:2	0.53
89:3	0.48
89:4	0.52
90:1	0.51
90:2	0.51
90:3	0.58
90:4	0.65
91:1	0.72
91:2	0.83
91:3	0.91
91:4	1.08
92:1	1.33
92:2	1.53
92:3	1.64
92:4	1.62
93:1	1.47
93:2	1.34
93:3	1.36
93:4	1.39
94:1	1.35
94:2	1.28
94:3	1.19
94:4	1.12
95:1	0.99
95:2	1
95:3	0.94
95:4	0.93
96:1	0.94
96:2	1.02
96:3	0.95
96:4	0.86
97:1	0.83
97:2	0.79
97:3	0.79
97:4	0.72
98:1	0.7
98:2	0.61
98:3	0.62
98:4	0.61
99:1	0.53
99:2	0.53
99:3	0.51
99:4	0.5
00:1	0.47
00:2	0.44
00:3	0.48
00:4	0.43
01:1	0.48
01:2	0.48
01:3	0.55
01:4	0.73
02:1	0.87
02:2	1.08
02:3	1.09
02:4	1.22
03:1	1.24
03:2	1.35
03:3	1.36
03:4	1.34
04:1	1.31
04:2	1.23
04:3	1.13
04:4	1.15
05:1	1.11
05:2	1.01
05:3	0.94
05:4	0.92
06:1	0.85
06:2	0.84
06:3	0.85
06:4	0.72
07:1	0.79
07:2	0.76
07:3	0.83
07:4	0.87
08:1	0.88
08:2	0.98
08:3	1.2
08:4	1.53
09:1	1.94
09:2	2.6
09:3	3.34
09:4	3.84
10:1	4.15
10:2	4.32
10:3	4.09
10:4	4.12
11:1	4
11:2	3.95
11:3	4
11:4	3.71
12:1	3.5
12:2	3.39
12:3	3.24
12:4	3.12
13:1	3.03
13:2	2.79
13:3	2.72
13:4

Return to Figure 2.7

Figure 2.8 - Job Finding Rates by Unemployment Duration

	1-26 weeks	27-52 weeks	53+ weeks
Jan 07	31.32	18.17	11.94
Feb 07	32.08	18.5	13
Mar 07	32.45	18.91	12.35
Apr 07	30.94	18.55	13
May 07	30.04	18.31	13.21
Jun 07	29.15	17.3	12.22
Jul 07	30.06	16.79	12.11
Aug 07	30.05	16.75	12.06
Sep 07	29.15	16.92	10.96
Oct 07	29.43	17.87	9.62
Nov 07	28.58	18.71	8.85
Dec 07	29.29	17.81	10.7
Jan 08	28.76	17.35	11.98
Feb 08	29.14	18.08	11.66
Mar 08	28.8	18.78	11.84
Apr 08	28.34	16.95	13.81
May 08	28.7	14.84	14.72
Jun 08	27.74	12.78	14.6
Jul 08	27.33	12.01	13.03
Aug 08	26.05	11.54	10.36
Sep 08	25.89	12.39	9.56
Oct 08	26.74	12.93	8.49
Nov 08	25.46	13.17	10.92
Dec 08	24.53	13.07	9.52
Jan 09	22.67	12.55	9.68
Feb 09	21.72	11.53	8.95
Mar 09	21.05	10.26	8.77
Apr 09	20.77	10.08	8.04
May 09	20.28	10.32	7.08
Jun 09	20.07	11.05	7.8
Jul 09	20.19	11.15	8.44
Aug 09	20.23	10.88	8.39
Sep 09	20.45	9.69	8.48
Oct 09	19.91	9.74	7.81
Nov 09	20.38	10.16	8.33
Dec 09	20.3	10.6	8.48
Jan 10	20.64	10.36	7.94
Feb 10	20.62	10.08	7.97
Mar 10	21.44	10.34	7.98
Apr 10	22.25	11.46	8.6
May 10	22.8	12.24	8.86
Jun 10	22.29	11.92	8.86
Jul 10	22.17	11.95	9.81
Aug 10	21.58	11.74	9.18
Sep 10	21.41	13.23	9.3
Oct 10	20.61	12.62	7.89
Nov 10	21.06	12.39	8.44
Dec 10	21.93	12.09	8.33
Jan 11	22.08	11.86	8.75
Feb 11	21.84	11.9	7.66
Mar 11	21.38	11.65	7.98
Apr 11	21.49	13.7	8.13
May 11	21.72	12.71	9.15
Jun 11	22.77	12.92	9.35
Jul 11	22.75	10.93	8.6
Aug 11	22.74	11.69	8.79
Sep 11	22.11	11.43	7.96
Oct 11	22.24	11.82	8.91
Nov 11	22.66	12.79	8.18
Dec 11	22.96	13.8	9.07
Jan 12	23.36	14.15	9.44
Feb 12	23.87	14.19	10.19
Mar 12	23.67	13.64	10.05
Apr 12	23.27	13.05	8.74
May 12	22.85	12.1	8.34
Jun 12	23.25	11.49	8.19
Jul 12	23.18	11.98	8.44
Aug 12	23.61	11.85	8.73
Sep 12	23.46	11.45	8.03
Oct 12	23.85	11.28	8.44
Nov 12	22.57	12.06	8.41
Dec 12	22.12	12.78	9.31
Jan 13	22.04	13.55	9.78
Feb 13	23.1	13.37	9.93
Mar 13	23.46	12.23	9.64
Apr 13	23.66	11.31	9.13
May 13	24.42	12.14	8.97
Jun 13	24.11	14.41	8.9
Jul 13	24.33	13.99	8.54
Aug 13	23.98	14.29	8.62
Sep 13	23.48	13.55	9.6
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13

Return to Figure 2.8

Figure 2.9 - Labor Force Exit by Unemployment Duration

	1-26 weeks	27-52 weeks	53+ weeks
Jan 07	23.49	28.11	30.55
Feb 07	24.54	29.44	31.1
Mar 07	24.5	28.94	31.2
Apr 07	24.18	29.47	28.45
May 07	23.24	28.36	30.01
Jun 07	23.2	29.7	30.61
Jul 07	23.1	29.54	28.84
Aug 07	23.2	28.19	27.06
Sep 07	22.83	27.15	28.7
Oct 07	22.49	27.22	31.1
Nov 07	23.08	26.01	31.38
Dec 07	22.31	26.08	31.05
Jan 08	22.47	25.39	31.01
Feb 08	22.71	25.27	30.03
Mar 08	23.43	25.51	28.94
Apr 08	24.5	26.95	29.35
May 08	23.49	27.54	30.26
Jun 08	23.46	25.84	28.45
Jul 08	21.48	25.84	24.62
Aug 08	21.41	25.07	22.98
Sep 08	21.24	26.44	25.93
Oct 08	21.73	25.16	27.33
Nov 08	21.67	24.78	27.7
Dec 08	21.58	23.41	25.56
Jan 09	21.25	22.78	25.4
Feb 09	20.54	22.82	24.6
Mar 09	19.92	22.75	24.85
Apr 09	19.54	21.49	24.63
May 09	19.51	21.14	23.95
Jun 09	18.78	19.88	23.17
Jul 09	18.78	19.25	22.19
Aug 09	18.95	18.49	22.01
Sep 09	19.34	18.13	19.92
Oct 09	19.51	18.45	20.39
Nov 09	19.14	17.78	19.09
Dec 09	19.31	18.57	19.09
Jan 10	19.06	18.76	18.97
Feb 10	19.54	19.41	19.47
Mar 10	19.76	19.36	20.15
Apr 10	20.18	19.54	19.19
May 10	20.69	19.52	18.59
Jun 10	21.33	20.32	18.61
Jul 10	21.61	20.84	19
Aug 10	21.45	20.87	19.02
Sep 10	21.67	20.41	18.62
Oct 10	21.63	20.06	19
Nov 10	21.57	20.45	18.97
Dec 10	21.22	20.71	19.17
Jan 11	21.53	21.82	19.32
Feb 11	21.61	21.88	21.33
Mar 11	21.88	20.82	21.21
Apr 11	22.2	20.15	21.1
May 11	22.44	20.37	19.48
Jun 11	22.1	21.72	20.16
Jul 11	21.84	22.36	20.73
Aug 11	21.05	22.3	21.1
Sep 11	21.39	23.25	21.39
Oct 11	20.47	23.09	20.61
Nov 11	21.19	23.08	21.42
Dec 11	20.83	21.51	21.26
Jan 12	21.75	21.49	21.54
Feb 12	21.85	22.01	20.85
Mar 12	22.24	22.96	20.97
Apr 12	22.17	22.99	22.15
May 12	22.35	22.01	23
Jun 12	22.73	21.68	22.42
Jul 12	22.85	20.82	22.28
Aug 12	23.08	21.55	22.97
Sep 12	22.8	21.65	24.69
Oct 12	23.05	23.17	24.91
Nov 12	23.47	24.23	23.99
Dec 12	23.78	24.28	23.98
Jan 13	22.94	23.04	23.91
Feb 13	22.55	22.17	24.71
Mar 13	22.32	22.75	25.1
Apr 13	22.41	24.65	24.94
May 13	21.7	24.24	24.42
Jun 13	21.2	22.89	23.46
Jul 13	21.66	21.27	24.03
Aug 13	22.2	21.71	24.91
Sep 13	22.32	22.37	24.85
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13

Return to Figure 2.9

Figure 2.10 - Disability Insurance (SSDI) Recipiency

	SSDI Recipiency (Percent of population 16 years and over)
1995	2.1
1996	2.18
1997	2.22
1998	2.29
1999	2.34
2000	2.37
2001	2.45
2002	2.55
2003	2.65
2004	2.78
2005	2.89
2006	2.98
2007	3.06
2008	3.18
2009	3.3
2010	3.45
2011	3.58
2012	3.63
2013

Return to Figure 2.10

Figure 3.1a - Startups and Young Business Employment (New Establishments)

	No. of estabs. (Thousands)	Share of all estabs. (Percent of all Establishments)
1977	614.71	14.8
1978	508.61	12.04
1979	503.61	11.51
1980	456.17	10.37
1981	456.35	10.51
1982	462.12	10.34
1983	439.03	9.63
1984	507.51	10.75
1985	514.87	10.56
1986	527.73	10.53
1987	558.51	10.81
1988	496.56	9.51
1989	480.29	9.1
1990	485.24	8.97
1991	477.38	8.64
1992	473.6	8.49
1993	477.67	8.48
1994	501.38	8.75
1995	517.05	8.85
1996	519.35	8.75
1997	527.98	8.74
1998	519.95	8.51
1999	501.45	8.12
2000	486.98	7.83
2001	476.98	7.51
2002	510.84	7.98
2003	510.52	7.9
2004	529.33	8.09
2005	555.63	8.32
2006	573.88	8.46
2007	533.03	7.74
2008	496.33	7.23
2009	413.73	6.2
2010	396.23	6.01
2011	413.97	6.28

Return to Figure 3.1a

Figure 3.1b Startups and Young Business Employment (Employment at Startups and Young Businesses)

	Age 1-2 (Percent)	Age 0 (Percent)
1979	12.56	3.87
1980	10.08	3.35
1981	10.52	4.03
1982	10.96	4.1
1983	11.04	3.44
1984	10.75	3.62
1985	10.69	3.64
1986	11.16	3.77
1987	11.91	4.19
1988	11.53	3.53
1989	10.96	3.28
1990	9.68	3.16
1991	9.06	2.99
1992	8.75	3.08
1993	8.63	2.84
1994	8.65	3.08
1995	8.58	3.02
1996	8.61	2.98
1997	8.44	2.96
1998	8.69	3.23
1999	8.71	2.94
2000	8.81	2.75
2001	8.13	2.6
2002	7.91	2.97
2003	7.86	2.81
2004	7.91	2.77
2005	7.81	2.95
2006	8.03	2.99
2007	7.73	2.56
2008	7.09	2.38
2009	6.29	2.13
2010	6.06	2.19
2011	5.96	2.25

Return to Figure 3.1b

Figure 4.1 Assumed Relationship Between the Level of Slack and the Relative Strength of Hysteresis Effects

Unemployment Gap	Relative Strength of Hysteresis Effects
-2.0000	0.0000
-1.7500	0.0000
-1.5000	0.0000
-1.2500	0.0000
-1.0000	0.0000
-0.7500	0.0000
-0.5000	0.0002
-0.2500	0.0006
0.0000	0.0019
0.2500	0.0067
0.5000	0.0230
0.7500	0.0759
1.0000	0.2227
1.2500	0.5000
1.5000	0.7773
1.7500	0.9241
2.0000	0.9770
2.2500	0.9933
2.5000	0.9981
2.7500	0.9994
3.0000	0.9998
3.2500	1.0000
3.5000	1.0000
3.7500	1.0000
4.0000	1.0000
4.2500	1.0000
4.5000	1.0000
4.7500	1.0000
5.0000	1.0000
5.2500	1.0000
5.5000	1.0000
5.7500	1.0000
6.0000	1.0000

Return to Figure 4.1

Figure 4.2. Financial Crisis Scenario Under the Inertial Policy Rule (deviations from baseline)

Simulation Year: Simulation Quarter	Output Gap	Inflation	Federal Funds Rate	Real GDP	Potential GDP	Capital Services	Unemployment Rate	Natural Rate of Unemployment	Actual Labor Force Participation Rate	Trend Labor Force Participation Rate
1:1	-0.82	-0.28	-0.18	-0.90	-0.09	-0.03	0.11	0.05	-0.05	0.00
1:2	-1.85	-0.59	-0.54	-2.02	-0.19	-0.14	0.35	0.10	-0.13	-0.00
1:3	-3.02	-0.93	-1.09	-3.28	-0.31	-0.34	0.72	0.14	-0.25	-0.00
1:4	-3.99	-1.31	-1.78	-4.34	-0.45	-0.64	1.17	0.19	-0.39	-0.00
2:1	-4.81	-1.42	-2.51	-5.28	-0.62	-1.02	1.66	0.24	-0.51	-0.01
2:2	-5.40	-1.53	-3.25	-6.06	-0.86	-1.46	2.13	0.30	-0.63	-0.05
2:3	-5.81	-1.60	-3.96	-6.73	-1.15	-1.96	2.56	0.36	-0.76	-0.12
2:4	-6.10	-1.63	-4.47	-7.29	-1.46	-2.49	2.92	0.42	-0.90	-0.20
3:1	-6.22	-1.65	-4.47	-7.71	-1.79	-3.03	3.19	0.47	-1.02	-0.29
3:2	-6.17	-1.65	-4.47	-7.97	-2.11	-3.57	3.38	0.52	-1.14	-0.39
3:3	-5.97	-1.65	-4.47	-8.08	-2.42	-4.10	3.48	0.55	-1.24	-0.49
3:4	-5.65	-1.64	-4.47	-8.08	-2.73	-4.60	3.49	0.59	-1.33	-0.58
4:1	-5.26	-1.62	-4.47	-7.98	-3.01	-5.06	3.43	0.62	-1.41	-0.68
4:2	-4.81	-1.60	-4.47	-7.82	-3.28	-5.47	3.31	0.65	-1.47	-0.76
4:3	-4.33	-1.58	-4.47	-7.60	-3.51	-5.82	3.14	0.68	-1.52	-0.84
4:4	-3.85	-1.54	-4.47	-7.35	-3.71	-6.12	2.94	0.70	-1.55	-0.90
5:1	-3.38	-1.50	-4.47	-7.07	-3.87	-6.35	2.71	0.72	-1.56	-0.95
5:2	-2.93	-1.45	-4.47	-6.77	-4.00	-6.53	2.47	0.73	-1.56	-0.99
5:3	-2.51	-1.39	-4.47	-6.46	-4.08	-6.66	2.23	0.73	-1.54	-1.02
5:4	-2.13	-1.34	-4.39	-6.14	-4.12	-6.73	1.99	0.73	-1.51	-1.02
6:1	-1.82	-1.27	-4.27	-5.82	-4.09	-6.75	1.76	0.71	-1.46	-1.01
6:2	-1.54	-1.20	-4.11	-5.49	-4.03	-6.73	1.55	0.69	-1.39	-0.98
6:3	-1.30	-1.13	-3.92	-5.18	-3.94	-6.68	1.36	0.66	-1.32	-0.94
6:4	-1.08	-1.06	-3.71	-4.89	-3.85	-6.60	1.20	0.64	-1.25	-0.91
7:1	-0.90	-0.99	-3.49	-4.62	-3.75	-6.50	1.05	0.61	-1.18	-0.87
7:2	-0.75	-0.92	-3.27	-4.38	-3.66	-6.38	0.93	0.59	-1.11	-0.84
7:3	-0.63	-0.86	-3.05	-4.17	-3.56	-6.25	0.83	0.56	-1.04	-0.80
7:4	-0.54	-0.79	-2.84	-3.98	-3.47	-6.11	0.74	0.54	-0.98	-0.77
8:1	-0.47	-0.73	-2.63	-3.82	-3.38	-5.98	0.67	0.52	-0.93	-0.74
8:2	-0.42	-0.68	-2.44	-3.69	-3.29	-5.84	0.62	0.50	-0.87	-0.71
8:3	-0.38	-0.63	-2.26	-3.57	-3.20	-5.71	0.58	0.48	-0.83	-0.68
8:4	-0.37	-0.58	-2.10	-3.48	-3.12	-5.58	0.55	0.46	-0.79	-0.66
9:1	-0.36	-0.54	-1.95	-3.40	-3.04	-5.46	0.53	0.44	-0.75	-0.63
9:2	-0.37	-0.50	-1.81	-3.33	-2.97	-5.35	0.52	0.42	-0.71	-0.60
9:3	-0.38	-0.47	-1.69	-3.27	-2.90	-5.24	0.52	0.41	-0.68	-0.58
9:4	-0.40	-0.44	-1.59	-3.22	-2.83	-5.15	0.52	0.39	-0.65	-0.56
10:1	-0.42	-0.42	-1.50	-3.17	-2.77	-5.06	0.52	0.37	-0.63	-0.53
10:2	-0.44	-0.40	-1.42	-3.13	-2.71	-4.97	0.52	0.36	-0.60	-0.51
10:3	-0.46	-0.39	-1.35	-3.09	-2.65	-4.90	0.53	0.35	-0.58	-0.49
10:4	-0.48	-0.37	-1.30	-3.06	-2.59	-4.82	0.54	0.33	-0.56	-0.47
11:1	-0.48	-0.36	-1.25	-3.01	-2.54	-4.75	0.54	0.32	-0.54	-0.45
11:2	-0.48	-0.35	-1.20	-2.95	-2.49	-4.68	0.54	0.31	-0.52	-0.44
11:3	-0.46	-0.35	-1.16	-2.89	-2.44	-4.62	0.53	0.29	-0.51	-0.42
11:4	-0.45	-0.34	-1.12	-2.83	-2.39	-4.55	0.52	0.28	-0.49	-0.40
12:1	-0.44	-0.34	-1.09	-2.76	-2.33	-4.49	0.51	0.27	-0.47	-0.39
12:2	-0.43	-0.33	-1.06	-2.69	-2.27	-4.42	0.50	0.26	-0.45	-0.37
12:3	-0.42	-0.33	-1.03	-2.62	-2.21	-4.36	0.49	0.25	-0.44	-0.36
12:4	-0.40	-0.33	-1.00	-2.55	-2.16	-4.29	0.47	0.24	-0.42	-0.34
13:1	-0.39	-0.33	-0.97	-2.48	-2.10	-4.22	0.45	0.23	-0.40	-0.33
13:2	-0.37	-0.32	-0.95	-2.41	-2.04	-4.15	0.44	0.22	-0.39	-0.31
13:3	-0.36	-0.32	-0.92	-2.34	-1.99	-4.08	0.42	0.21	-0.37	-0.30
13:4	-0.34	-0.31	-0.90	-2.27	-1.94	-4.00	0.41	0.20	-0.36	-0.29
14:1	-0.33	-0.31	-0.88	-2.20	-1.88	-3.93	0.39	0.20	-0.34	-0.28
14:2	-0.31	-0.30	-0.85	-2.14	-1.83	-3.86	0.37	0.19	-0.33	-0.27
14:3	-0.30	-0.30	-0.83	-2.07	-1.78	-3.78	0.36	0.18	-0.32	-0.26
14:4	-0.28	-0.29	-0.81	-2.01	-1.73	-3.71	0.34	0.17	-0.30	-0.25
15:1	-0.27	-0.28	-0.78	-1.94	-1.68	-3.64	0.33	0.17	-0.29	-0.24
15:2	-0.25	-0.27	-0.76	-1.88	-1.63	-3.56	0.31	0.16	-0.28	-0.23
15:3	-0.24	-0.27	-0.73	-1.82	-1.58	-3.49	0.30	0.15	-0.27	-0.22
15:4	-0.23	-0.26	-0.71	-1.76	-1.54	-3.42	0.29	0.15	-0.26	-0.21

Return to Figure 4.2

Figure 4.3. Macroeconomic Effects of the Illustrative Financial Crisis Under Optimal Control (OC) Policy Without and With Recognition of Supply-Side Damage and Policy Feedback Effects on Supply-Side Conditions (FRB/US simulation results expressed as deviations from baseline)

Simulation Year: Simulation Quarter	Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome	Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome	Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome	Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome	Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Federal Funds Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule	Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome	Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome	Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome	Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome	Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Real Federal Funds Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule	Real GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome	Real GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome	Real GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome	Real GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome	Real GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Real GDP Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Real GDP Under the Inertial Policy Rule	Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome	Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome	Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome	Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome	Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Unemployment Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule	Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome	Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome	Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome	Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome	Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Labor Force Participation Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule	Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Expected Outcome	Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome	Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Expected Outcome	Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome	Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Inflation Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule
1:1	-1.36	-1.29	-1.30	-1.25	-1.21	-1.86	-0.18	-1.33	-1.26	-1.27	-1.19	-1.17	-1.90	0.11	-0.90	-0.91	-0.91	-0.91	-0.91	-0.92	-0.90	0.08	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.11	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.06	-0.04	0.04	-0.28
1:2	-2.63	-2.49	-2.50	-2.41	-2.35	-3.38	-0.54	-2.50	-2.40	-2.38	-2.24	-2.22	-3.42	0.05	-1.67	-1.76	-1.75	-1.77	-1.75	-1.65	-2.02	0.22	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.28	0.35	-0.14	-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.11	-0.17	-0.13	0.03	-0.59
1:3	-3.69	-3.52	-3.49	-3.40	-3.34	-4.34	-1.09	-3.46	-3.34	-3.29	-3.11	-3.11	-4.36	-0.15	-2.48	-2.66	-2.64	-2.67	-2.64	-2.40	-3.28	0.44	0.56	0.56	0.57	0.56	0.50	0.72	-0.25	-0.24	-0.24	-0.24	-0.24	-0.24	-0.25	-0.23	-0.17	-0.20	-0.29	-0.23	0.02	-0.93
1:4	-4.42	-4.22	-4.18	-4.10	-4.06	-4.48	-1.78	-4.08	-3.96	-3.87	-3.67	-3.72	-4.48	-0.47	-3.07	-3.33	-3.31	-3.36	-3.31	-2.92	-4.34	0.69	0.85	0.85	0.86	0.85	0.73	1.17	-0.38	-0.38	-0.38	-0.38	-0.38	-0.37	-0.39	-0.34	-0.26	-0.30	-0.43	-0.34	-0.00	-1.31
2:1	-4.47	-4.26	-4.45	-4.41	-4.43	-4.49	-2.51	-4.05	-3.93	-4.08	-3.90	-4.02	-4.43	-1.09	-3.56	-3.90	-3.88	-3.95	-3.87	-3.37	-5.28	0.94	1.15	1.14	1.17	1.14	0.95	1.66	-0.48	-0.47	-0.48	-0.47	-0.47	-0.46	-0.51	-0.42	-0.33	-0.37	-0.51	-0.42	-0.06	-1.42
2:2	-4.48	-4.25	-4.47	-4.46	-4.46	-4.49	-3.25	-4.03	-3.90	-4.08	-3.92	-4.02	-4.43	-1.72	-3.96	-4.39	-4.37	-4.44	-4.34	-3.75	-6.06	1.17	1.43	1.43	1.46	1.42	1.17	2.13	-0.55	-0.55	-0.57	-0.55	-0.55	-0.53	-0.63	-0.45	-0.35	-0.40	-0.54	-0.44	-0.06	-1.53
2:3	-4.48	-4.23	-4.47	-4.47	-4.47	-4.49	-3.96	-4.03	-3.88	-4.07	-3.92	-4.02	-4.44	-2.36	-4.31	-4.82	-4.82	-4.88	-4.75	-4.09	-6.73	1.39	1.69	1.68	1.71	1.66	1.36	2.56	-0.62	-0.62	-0.67	-0.63	-0.62	-0.58	-0.76	-0.45	-0.35	-0.40	-0.56	-0.45	-0.05	-1.60
2:4	-4.48	-4.22	-4.48	-4.47	-4.47	-4.49	-4.47	-4.04	-3.89	-4.08	-3.92	-4.03	-4.47	-2.84	-4.62	-5.22	-5.25	-5.27	-5.13	-4.40	-7.29	1.58	1.91	1.90	1.94	1.87	1.52	2.92	-0.67	-0.70	-0.78	-0.70	-0.69	-0.63	-0.90	-0.44	-0.34	-0.39	-0.55	-0.44	-0.02	-1.63
3:1	-4.48	-4.19	-4.47	-4.47	-4.47	-4.49	-4.47	-4.05	-3.88	-4.10	-3.94	-4.05	-4.50	-2.83	-4.83	-5.51	-5.57	-5.57	-5.40	-4.61	-7.71	1.75	2.10	2.07	2.13	2.05	1.66	3.19	-0.70	-0.76	-0.87	-0.77	-0.75	-0.66	-1.02	-0.42	-0.31	-0.37	-0.53	-0.42	0.01	-1.65
3:2	-4.47	-4.17	-4.47	-4.47	-4.48	-4.49	-4.47	-4.08	-3.89	-4.13	-3.96	-4.08	-4.53	-2.82	-4.89	-5.67	-5.77	-5.73	-5.55	-4.69	-7.97	1.86	2.23	2.19	2.26	2.17	1.75	3.38	-0.71	-0.81	-0.96	-0.82	-0.80	-0.68	-1.14	-0.39	-0.28	-0.35	-0.51	-0.40	0.04	-1.65
3:3	-4.47	-4.14	-4.47	-4.47	-4.48	-4.49	-4.47	-4.11	-3.89	-4.15	-3.99	-4.11	-4.56	-2.83	-4.82	-5.69	-5.82	-5.75	-5.55	-4.63	-8.08	1.93	2.29	2.25	2.32	2.22	1.78	3.48	-0.71	-0.86	-1.05	-0.87	-0.85	-0.70	-1.24	-0.37	-0.26	-0.32	-0.49	-0.37	0.07	-1.65
3:4	-4.47	-4.12	-4.47	-4.47	-4.48	-4.49	-4.47	-4.13	-3.89	-4.18	-4.01	-4.13	-4.59	-2.84	-4.62	-5.60	-5.77	-5.67	-5.45	-4.47	-8.08	1.92	2.28	2.24	2.31	2.21	1.76	3.49	-0.71	-0.91	-1.12	-0.92	-0.89	-0.72	-1.33	-0.34	-0.23	-0.29	-0.47	-0.35	0.10	-1.64
4:1	-4.47	-4.09	-4.47	-4.47	-4.48	-4.49	-4.47	-4.16	-3.88	-4.20	-4.03	-4.15	-4.62	-2.85	-4.34	-5.41	-5.62	-5.48	-5.25	-4.21	-7.98	1.86	2.21	2.17	2.24	2.14	1.67	3.43	-0.69	-0.94	-1.19	-0.96	-0.92	-0.72	-1.41	-0.31	-0.20	-0.27	-0.44	-0.33	0.12	-1.62
4:2	-4.47	-4.06	-4.47	-4.47	-4.48	-4.49	-4.47	-4.19	-3.88	-4.22	-4.06	-4.17	-4.64	-2.87	-3.99	-5.15	-5.40	-5.23	-4.99	-3.89	-7.82	1.74	2.09	2.04	2.12	2.01	1.54	3.31	-0.66	-0.97	-1.25	-0.98	-0.94	-0.72	-1.47	-0.29	-0.18	-0.25	-0.42	-0.30	0.15	-1.60
4:3	-4.47	-4.04	-4.47	-4.47	-4.48	-4.49	-4.47	-4.22	-3.89	-4.25	-4.08	-4.20	-4.67	-2.90	-3.59	-4.84	-5.14	-4.93	-4.67	-3.51	-7.60	1.58	1.91	1.88	1.95	1.83	1.36	3.14	-0.63	-0.98	-1.29	-0.99	-0.94	-0.70	-1.52	-0.25	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	-0.27	0.18	-1.58
4:4	-4.47	-4.02	-4.46	-4.47	-4.47	-4.49	-4.47	-4.25	-3.91	-4.28	-4.12	-4.24	-4.71	-2.93	-3.15	-4.48	-4.83	-4.58	-4.30	-3.09	-7.35	1.38	1.71	1.68	1.74	1.63	1.14	2.94	-0.58	-0.97	-1.31	-0.99	-0.93	-0.66	-1.55	-0.21	-0.11	-0.18	-0.36	-0.24	0.21	-1.54
5:1	-4.47	-4.00	-4.46	-4.47	-4.47	-4.49	-4.47	-4.29	-3.93	-4.31	-4.16	-4.27	-4.73	-2.98	-2.69	-4.09	-4.50	-4.20	-3.91	-2.65	-7.07	1.15	1.47	1.45	1.52	1.40	0.91	2.71	-0.54	-0.94	-1.33	-0.96	-0.90	-0.62	-1.56	-0.17	-0.07	-0.15	-0.32	-0.20	0.24	-1.50
5:2	-4.47	-4.00	-4.46	-4.47	-4.47	-4.49	-4.47	-4.34	-3.97	-4.35	-4.20	-4.30	-4.77	-3.02	-2.22	-3.66	-4.15	-3.79	-3.49	-2.19	-6.77	0.91	1.23	1.22	1.28	1.15	0.67	2.47	-0.48	-0.90	-1.32	-0.92	-0.85	-0.56	-1.56	-0.13	-0.03	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	0.28	-1.45
5:3	-4.47	-4.00	-4.45	-4.47	-4.46	-4.49	-4.47	-4.38	-4.01	-4.38	-4.24	-4.34	-4.80	-3.07	-1.75	-3.23	-3.78	-3.37	-3.06	-1.73	-6.46	0.67	0.98	0.98	1.03	0.91	0.42	2.23	-0.43	-0.84	-1.31	-0.86	-0.79	-0.50	-1.54	-0.09	0.01	-0.07	-0.24	-0.12	0.31	-1.39
5:4	-4.46	-4.00	-4.45	-4.47	-4.46	-4.48	-4.39	-4.42	-4.05	-4.42	-4.28	-4.38	-4.83	-3.06	-1.29	-2.79	-3.41	-2.96	-2.63	-1.27	-6.14	0.43	0.73	0.75	0.79	0.67	0.18	1.99	-0.37	-0.77	-1.27	-0.80	-0.73	-0.44	-1.51	-0.04	0.05	-0.03	-0.19	-0.08	0.35	-1.34
6:1	-4.46	-4.01	-4.45	-4.47	-4.45	-4.48	-4.27	-4.47	-4.11	-4.45	-4.33	-4.42	-4.86	-3.00	-0.83	-2.35	-3.03	-2.54	-2.21	-0.83	-5.82	0.19	0.50	0.53	0.57	0.45	-0.05	1.76	-0.31	-0.70	-1.22	-0.73	-0.66	-0.38	-1.46	0.01	0.09	0.01	-0.15	-0.04	0.38	-1.27
6:2	-4.46	-4.03	-4.44	-4.47	-4.45	-4.48	-4.11	-4.51	-4.16	-4.49	-4.37	-4.45	-4.89	-2.90	-0.39	-1.91	-2.65	-2.14	-1.80	-0.39	-5.49	-0.04	0.27	0.32	0.36	0.23	-0.27	1.55	-0.25	-0.64	-1.16	-0.66	-0.59	-0.32	-1.39	0.05	0.13	0.04	-0.10	0.00	0.41	-1.20
6:3	-4.47	-4.06	-4.44	-4.47	-4.44	-4.47	-3.92	-4.57	-4.23	-4.52	-4.41	-4.49	-4.91	-2.78	0.03	-1.50	-2.27	-1.75	-1.41	0.02	-5.18	-0.25	0.07	0.14	0.16	0.04	-0.47	1.36	-0.19	-0.57	-1.09	-0.60	-0.53	-0.26	-1.32	0.10	0.17	0.08	-0.06	0.04	0.44	-1.13
6:4	-4.47	-4.08	-4.42	-4.47	-4.44	-4.47	-3.71	-4.61	-4.29	-4.54	-4.46	-4.52	-4.93	-2.65	0.43	-1.10	-1.91	-1.39	-1.05	0.41	-4.89	-0.45	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	-0.14	-0.66	1.20	-0.14	-0.50	-1.02	-0.53	-0.47	-0.20	-1.25	0.14	0.21	0.12	-0.02	0.08	0.46	-1.06
7:1	-4.45	-4.09	-4.37	-4.47	-4.43	-4.47	-3.49	-4.63	-4.33	-4.52	-4.50	-4.55	-4.95	-2.50	0.79	-0.73	-1.58	-1.06	-0.71	0.77	-4.62	-0.62	-0.30	-0.17	-0.17	-0.30	-0.82	1.05	-0.09	-0.44	-0.95	-0.47	-0.41	-0.15	-1.18	0.19	0.24	0.15	0.02	0.12	0.49	-0.99
7:2	-4.45	-4.11	-4.25	-4.39	-4.41	-4.47	-3.27	-4.67	-4.38	-4.43	-4.45	-4.57	-4.97	-2.35	1.13	-0.38	-1.29	-0.76	-0.40	1.10	-4.38	-0.78	-0.46	-0.29	-0.31	-0.44	-0.96	0.93	-0.04	-0.38	-0.88	-0.42	-0.35	-0.10	-1.11	0.23	0.27	0.18	0.06	0.16	0.51	-0.92
7:3	-4.44	-4.13	-4.08	-4.24	-4.33	-4.46	-3.05	-4.71	-4.43	-4.29	-4.34	-4.52	-4.98	-2.20	1.43	-0.07	-1.02	-0.49	-0.13	1.39	-4.17	-0.92	-0.60	-0.39	-0.43	-0.56	-1.08	0.83	0.00	-0.33	-0.81	-0.36	-0.30	-0.05	-1.04	0.26	0.30	0.21	0.10	0.19	0.52	-0.86
7:4	-4.44	-4.15	-3.88	-4.06	-4.20	-4.46	-2.84	-4.73	-4.47	-4.11	-4.19	-4.42	-4.99	-2.04	1.70	0.21	-0.80	-0.26	0.11	1.65	-3.98	-1.03	-0.72	-0.47	-0.53	-0.66	-1.19	0.74	0.04	-0.28	-0.75	-0.32	-0.26	-0.01	-0.98	0.30	0.32	0.23	0.13	0.22	0.54	-0.79
8:1	-4.42	-4.16	-3.70	-3.87	-4.04	-4.44	-2.63	-4.75	-4.50	-3.95	-4.03	-4.28	-4.98	-1.90	1.93	0.46	-0.61	-0.08	0.31	1.88	-3.82	-1.12	-0.82	-0.53	-0.60	-0.74	-1.27	0.67	0.08	-0.23	-0.70	-0.27	-0.22	0.02	-0.93	0.32	0.34	0.25	0.16	0.24	0.54	-0.73
8:2	-4.31	-4.07	-3.50	-3.67	-3.84	-4.42	-2.44	-4.66	-4.43	-3.76	-3.86	-4.11	-4.97	-1.76	2.13	0.67	-0.46	0.08	0.47	2.06	-3.69	-1.20	-0.90	-0.56	-0.66	-0.79	-1.33	0.62	0.11	-0.19	-0.65	-0.24	-0.18	0.05	-0.87	0.35	0.36	0.27	0.19	0.27	0.55	-0.68
8:3	-4.17	-3.95	-3.29	-3.45	-3.65	-4.36	-2.26	-4.53	-4.32	-3.57	-3.67	-3.94	-4.91	-1.63	2.28	0.85	-0.35	0.19	0.59	2.21	-3.57	-1.25	-0.96	-0.58	-0.69	-0.83	-1.37	0.58	0.13	-0.16	-0.60	-0.21	-0.15	0.08	-0.83	0.37	0.37	0.28	0.21	0.29	0.55	-0.63
8:4	-3.98	-3.78	-3.10	-3.24	-3.45	-4.22	-2.10	-4.37	-4.17	-3.38	-3.47	-3.75	-4.77	-1.51	2.40	0.98	-0.26	0.27	0.68	2.32	-3.48	-1.28	-0.99	-0.58	-0.70	-0.84	-1.39	0.55	0.15	-0.13	-0.56	-0.18	-0.12	0.10	-0.79	0.38	0.38	0.28	0.23	0.30	0.55	-0.58
9:1	-3.78	-3.60	-2.91	-3.04	-3.24	-4.02	-1.95	-4.17	-3.99	-3.19	-3.28	-3.55	-4.56	-1.41	2.47	1.08	-0.21	0.32	0.73	2.39	-3.40	-1.28	-1.01	-0.57	-0.69	-0.84	-1.38	0.53	0.17	-0.10	-0.53	-0.16	-0.10	0.12	-0.75	0.39	0.39	0.29	0.25	0.31	0.54	-0.54
9:2	-3.57	-3.42	-2.74	-2.85	-3.03	-3.84	-1.81	-3.97	-3.80	-3.02	-3.10	-3.35	-4.37	-1.31	2.51	1.14	-0.17	0.35	0.76	2.43	-3.33	-1.27	-1.01	-0.54	-0.67	-0.82	-1.36	0.52	0.18	-0.08	-0.50	-0.14	-0.08	0.13	-0.71	0.40	0.39	0.28	0.26	0.32	0.53	-0.50
9:3	-3.37	-3.23	-2.59	-2.67	-2.84	-3.62	-1.69	-3.77	-3.61	-2.86	-2.93	-3.15	-4.14	-1.22	2.52	1.17	-0.16	0.36	0.76	2.43	-3.27	-1.24	-0.99	-0.50	-0.64	-0.78	-1.33	0.52	0.19	-0.06	-0.48	-0.12	-0.07	0.14	-0.68	0.40	0.39	0.28	0.26	0.32	0.52	-0.47
9:4	-3.16	-3.04	-2.45	-2.52	-2.66	-3.40	-1.59	-3.56	-3.42	-2.72	-2.78	-2.98	-3.90	-1.15	2.49	1.17	-0.15	0.34	0.74	2.39	-3.22	-1.19	-0.95	-0.45	-0.60	-0.73	-1.27	0.52	0.19	-0.05	-0.45	-0.11	-0.06	0.15	-0.65	0.40	0.38	0.27	0.26	0.32	0.50	-0.44
10:1	-2.96	-2.85	-2.34	-2.39	-2.51	-3.18	-1.50	-3.35	-3.22	-2.60	-2.65	-2.82	-3.66	-1.08	2.45	1.15	-0.17	0.32	0.71	2.34	-3.17	-1.13	-0.90	-0.39	-0.54	-0.68	-1.20	0.52	0.19	-0.04	-0.44	-0.11	-0.06	0.15	-0.63	0.39	0.37	0.26	0.26	0.31	0.48	-0.42
10:2	-2.78	-2.69	-2.25	-2.27	-2.37	-2.97	-1.42	-3.16	-3.04	-2.49	-2.52	-2.67	-3.43	-1.02	2.38	1.11	-0.18	0.29	0.66	2.25	-3.13	-1.06	-0.84	-0.33	-0.49	-0.61	-1.12	0.52	0.19	-0.03	-0.42	-0.10	-0.05	0.14	-0.60	0.38	0.35	0.24	0.25	0.30	0.46	-0.40
10:3	-2.61	-2.53	-2.16	-2.17	-2.25	-2.78	-1.35	-2.98	-2.87	-2.39	-2.41	-2.54	-3.21	-0.97	2.30	1.05	-0.21	0.24	0.61	2.16	-3.09	-0.98	-0.77	-0.27	-0.43	-0.54	-1.03	0.53	0.18	-0.03	-0.41	-0.10	-0.05	0.14	-0.58	0.37	0.34	0.23	0.25	0.29	0.44	-0.39
10:4	-2.46	-2.39	-2.09	-2.07	-2.15	-2.60	-1.30	-2.81	-2.71	-2.30	-2.31	-2.42	-3.01	-0.92	2.20	0.98	-0.24	0.20	0.55	2.05	-3.06	-0.89	-0.69	-0.21	-0.36	-0.47	-0.93	0.54	0.17	-0.03	-0.40	-0.10	-0.06	0.13	-0.56	0.35	0.32	0.21	0.24	0.28	0.41	-0.37
11:1	-2.33	-2.27	-2.03	-1.99	-2.06	-2.45	-1.25	-2.66	-2.56	-2.22	-2.22	-2.32	-2.83	-0.88	2.14	0.94	-0.23	0.19	0.52	1.97	-3.01	-0.80	-0.62	-0.16	-0.31	-0.41	-0.83	0.54	0.16	-0.03	-0.39	-0.10	-0.06	0.12	-0.54	0.33	0.30	0.20	0.22	0.26	0.38	-0.36
11:2	-2.22	-2.16	-1.97	-1.92	-1.98	-2.32	-1.20	-2.52	-2.43	-2.15	-2.13	-2.22	-2.68	-0.85	2.10	0.91	-0.21	0.19	0.51	1.91	-2.95	-0.73	-0.55	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-0.74	0.54	0.15	-0.04	-0.38	-0.10	-0.06	0.11	-0.52	0.31	0.27	0.18	0.21	0.24	0.35	-0.35
11:3	-2.11	-2.06	-1.92	-1.86	-1.91	-2.21	-1.16	-2.40	-2.31	-2.08	-2.05	-2.14	-2.54	-0.81	2.06	0.89	-0.19	0.19	0.51	1.86	-2.89	-0.66	-0.49	-0.08	-0.22	-0.31	-0.67	0.53	0.14	-0.04	-0.37	-0.11	-0.07	0.09	-0.51	0.29	0.25	0.16	0.20	0.23	0.32	-0.35
11:4	-2.02	-1.98	-1.87	-1.80	-1.85	-2.12	-1.12	-2.29	-2.21	-2.01	-1.98	-2.06	-2.42	-0.78	2.02	0.88	-0.15	0.21	0.51	1.81	-2.83	-0.60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.19	-0.27	-0.60	0.52	0.12	-0.05	-0.36	-0.11	-0.07	0.08	-0.49	0.27	0.23	0.14	0.18	0.21	0.30	-0.34
12:1	-1.95	-1.91	-1.83	-1.74	-1.80	-2.05	-1.09	-2.19	-2.11	-1.96	-1.91	-1.99	-2.31	-0.75	1.99	0.87	-0.11	0.23	0.52	1.78	-2.76	-0.54	-0.39	-0.04	-0.17	-0.24	-0.54	0.51	0.11	-0.05	-0.35	-0.11	-0.07	0.07	-0.47	0.24	0.20	0.13	0.17	0.19	0.27	-0.34
12:2	-1.88	-1.84	-1.79	-1.69	-1.75	-1.98	-1.06	-2.10	-2.03	-1.90	-1.85	-1.92	-2.22	-0.72	1.96	0.86	-0.07	0.25	0.54	1.75	-2.69	-0.50	-0.35	-0.03	-0.15	-0.21	-0.48	0.50	0.10	-0.05	-0.34	-0.11	-0.07	0.06	-0.45	0.22	0.18	0.11	0.15	0.18	0.24	-0.33
12:3	-1.82	-1.79	-1.74	-1.65	-1.70	-1.93	-1.03	-2.02	-1.95	-1.84	-1.79	-1.86	-2.14	-0.70	1.94	0.86	-0.02	0.28	0.56	1.73	-2.62	-0.46	-0.32	-0.02	-0.14	-0.19	-0.44	0.49	0.09	-0.06	-0.33	-0.10	-0.07	0.05	-0.44	0.20	0.16	0.10	0.14	0.16	0.22	-0.33
12:4	-1.76	-1.74	-1.70	-1.60	-1.66	-1.88	-1.00	-1.94	-1.88	-1.79	-1.73	-1.80	-2.07	-0.67	1.92	0.86	0.03	0.31	0.59	1.71	-2.55	-0.42	-0.28	-0.01	-0.12	-0.18	-0.40	0.47	0.09	-0.06	-0.32	-0.10	-0.07	0.04	-0.42	0.18	0.14	0.09	0.13	0.14	0.19	-0.33
13:1	-1.70	-1.69	-1.66	-1.55	-1.61	-1.83	-0.97	-1.87	-1.81	-1.74	-1.67	-1.74	-2.00	-0.65	1.90	0.87	0.07	0.34	0.61	1.70	-2.48	-0.39	-0.26	-0.01	-0.11	-0.16	-0.36	0.45	0.08	-0.06	-0.31	-0.10	-0.07	0.04	-0.40	0.16	0.12	0.08	0.12	0.13	0.17	-0.33
13:2	-1.65	-1.64	-1.62	-1.51	-1.57	-1.78	-0.95	-1.80	-1.74	-1.68	-1.61	-1.69	-1.93	-0.63	1.89	0.88	0.12	0.38	0.64	1.69	-2.41	-0.37	-0.23	-0.01	-0.11	-0.15	-0.33	0.44	0.07	-0.06	-0.30	-0.10	-0.07	0.03	-0.39	0.15	0.10	0.07	0.11	0.12	0.15	-0.32
13:3	-1.60	-1.60	-1.57	-1.46	-1.53	-1.73	-0.92	-1.73	-1.68	-1.63	-1.56	-1.63	-1.86	-0.61	1.87	0.89	0.17	0.41	0.66	1.69	-2.34	-0.34	-0.21	-0.01	-0.10	-0.15	-0.30	0.42	0.07	-0.06	-0.28	-0.09	-0.07	0.03	-0.37	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.10	0.11	0.13	-0.32
13:4	-1.55	-1.55	-1.53	-1.42	-1.48	-1.68	-0.90	-1.67	-1.62	-1.58	-1.51	-1.58	-1.80	-0.59	1.86	0.90	0.21	0.44	0.69	1.68	-2.27	-0.32	-0.19	-0.01	-0.10	-0.14	-0.28	0.41	0.06	-0.06	-0.27	-0.09	-0.07	0.02	-0.36	0.12	0.07	0.05	0.09	0.10	0.12	-0.31
14:1	-1.51	-1.51	-1.48	-1.37	-1.44	-1.64	-0.88	-1.61	-1.57	-1.53	-1.46	-1.53	-1.74	-0.57	1.85	0.91	0.26	0.47	0.72	1.68	-2.20	-0.30	-0.18	-0.01	-0.09	-0.13	-0.26	0.39	0.06	-0.06	-0.26	-0.09	-0.06	0.02	-0.34	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.08	0.09	0.11	-0.31
14:2	-1.46	-1.47	-1.44	-1.33	-1.40	-1.60	-0.85	-1.56	-1.52	-1.48	-1.41	-1.48	-1.69	-0.55	1.84	0.93	0.30	0.50	0.75	1.69	-2.14	-0.29	-0.17	-0.01	-0.09	-0.13	-0.24	0.37	0.06	-0.06	-0.25	-0.08	-0.06	0.02	-0.33	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.08	0.09	0.10	-0.30
14:3	-1.42	-1.43	-1.39	-1.29	-1.36	-1.55	-0.83	-1.50	-1.47	-1.44	-1.37	-1.44	-1.64	-0.53	1.84	0.94	0.35	0.54	0.77	1.69	-2.07	-0.27	-0.15	-0.02	-0.09	-0.12	-0.23	0.36	0.05	-0.06	-0.24	-0.08	-0.06	0.02	-0.32	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.30
14:4	-1.37	-1.39	-1.35	-1.25	-1.31	-1.51	-0.81	-1.45	-1.42	-1.40	-1.32	-1.39	-1.59	-0.52	1.83	0.96	0.39	0.57	0.80	1.70	-2.01	-0.26	-0.15	-0.02	-0.09	-0.12	-0.22	0.34	0.05	-0.06	-0.23	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	-0.30	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.07	0.08	0.08	-0.29
15:1	-1.33	-1.35	-1.31	-1.21	-1.27	-1.46	-0.78	-1.41	-1.38	-1.35	-1.28	-1.35	-1.54	-0.50	1.82	0.98	0.43	0.60	0.83	1.70	-1.94	-0.25	-0.14	-0.02	-0.09	-0.12	-0.21	0.33	0.05	-0.05	-0.22	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	-0.29	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.07	0.08	0.08	-0.28
15:2	-1.28	-1.31	-1.26	-1.17	-1.23	-1.41	-0.76	-1.36	-1.33	-1.31	-1.24	-1.31	-1.48	-0.49	1.82	0.99	0.47	0.63	0.85	1.71	-1.88	-0.24	-0.13	-0.02	-0.09	-0.12	-0.20	0.31	0.04	-0.05	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	-0.28	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.07	0.08	0.07	-0.27
15:3	-1.24	-1.27	-1.22	-1.13	-1.19	-1.36	-0.73	-1.31	-1.29	-1.27	-1.20	-1.26	-1.43	-0.47	1.81	1.01	0.50	0.66	0.88	1.72	-1.82	-0.23	-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.11	-0.19	0.30	0.04	-0.05	-0.20	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	-0.27	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.08	0.08	0.07	-0.27
15:4	-1.20	-1.23	-1.18	-1.09	-1.15	-1.31	-0.71	-1.27	-1.25	-1.23	-1.17	-1.23	-1.38	-0.45	1.80	1.03	0.54	0.68	0.90	1.72	-1.76	-0.22	-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.11	-0.18	0.29	0.04	-0.05	-0.19	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	-0.26	0.07	0.02	0.06	0.08	0.08	0.07	-0.26

Return to Figure 4.3

Figure 4.4. Supply-Side Effects of the Illustrative Financial Crisis Under Optimal Control (OC) Policy Without and With Recognition of Supply-Side Damage and Policy Feedback Effects on Supply-Side Conditions (FRB/US simulation results expressed as deviations from baseline)

Simulation Year: Simulation Quarter	Natural Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome	Natural Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome	Natural Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Natural Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Natural Unemployment Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule	Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome	Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome	Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Trend Labor Force Participation Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule	Capital Services Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome	Capital Services Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome	Capital Services Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Capital Services Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Capital Services Under the Inertial Policy Rule	Potential GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Damage Actual Outcome	Potential GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming No Supply-Side Feedback Actual Outcome	Potential GDP Under Optimal Control Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Potential GDP Under Optimal Control with Employment to Population Ratio Targeting Assuming Supply-Side Feedback	Potential GDP Under the Inertial Policy Rule
1:1	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.09
1:2	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.14	-0.18	-0.18	-0.18	-0.18	-0.19
1:3	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.14	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.26	-0.26	-0.26	-0.23	-0.34	-0.29	-0.29	-0.29	-0.28	-0.31
1:4	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.46	-0.46	-0.45	-0.38	-0.64	-0.40	-0.40	-0.40	-0.38	-0.45
2:1	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.24	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.69	-0.71	-0.69	-0.56	-1.02	-0.52	-0.53	-0.52	-0.49	-0.62
2:2	0.28	0.28	0.27	0.27	0.30	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.05	-0.96	-0.98	-0.95	-0.76	-1.46	-0.66	-0.66	-0.65	-0.60	-0.86
2:3	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.30	0.36	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.12	-1.26	-1.29	-1.24	-0.98	-1.96	-0.81	-0.82	-0.80	-0.71	-1.15
2:4	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.33	0.42	-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.20	-1.57	-1.61	-1.55	-1.21	-2.49	-0.98	-1.00	-0.97	-0.82	-1.46
3:1	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.34	0.47	-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.04	-0.29	-1.91	-1.95	-1.88	-1.46	-3.03	-1.18	-1.20	-1.16	-0.94	-1.79
3:2	0.41	0.41	0.40	0.36	0.52	-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-0.39	-2.24	-2.29	-2.20	-1.70	-3.57	-1.38	-1.41	-1.35	-1.07	-2.11
3:3	0.42	0.43	0.42	0.36	0.55	-0.23	-0.24	-0.22	-0.10	-0.49	-2.57	-2.62	-2.52	-1.94	-4.10	-1.58	-1.61	-1.54	-1.19	-2.42
3:4	0.44	0.45	0.43	0.37	0.59	-0.29	-0.30	-0.27	-0.14	-0.58	-2.87	-2.93	-2.81	-2.15	-4.60	-1.77	-1.80	-1.73	-1.31	-2.73
4:1	0.46	0.46	0.45	0.37	0.62	-0.35	-0.36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.68	-3.14	-3.20	-3.06	-2.32	-5.06	-1.95	-1.98	-1.90	-1.42	-3.01
4:2	0.47	0.48	0.46	0.37	0.65	-0.40	-0.41	-0.38	-0.19	-0.76	-3.36	-3.43	-3.26	-2.45	-5.47	-2.10	-2.14	-2.04	-1.50	-3.28
4:3	0.48	0.49	0.47	0.36	0.68	-0.44	-0.45	-0.41	-0.20	-0.84	-3.52	-3.60	-3.42	-2.52	-5.82	-2.23	-2.27	-2.15	-1.55	-3.51
4:4	0.48	0.49	0.47	0.35	0.70	-0.46	-0.48	-0.43	-0.20	-0.90	-3.63	-3.72	-3.51	-2.53	-6.12	-2.30	-2.35	-2.22	-1.56	-3.71
5:1	0.47	0.48	0.46	0.34	0.72	-0.46	-0.48	-0.43	-0.20	-0.95	-3.68	-3.77	-3.55	-2.48	-6.35	-2.33	-2.38	-2.24	-1.55	-3.87
5:2	0.46	0.47	0.44	0.33	0.73	-0.45	-0.47	-0.42	-0.19	-0.99	-3.66	-3.77	-3.52	-2.37	-6.53	-2.32	-2.38	-2.22	-1.52	-4.00
5:3	0.44	0.45	0.43	0.31	0.73	-0.44	-0.46	-0.40	-0.18	-1.02	-3.59	-3.71	-3.44	-2.20	-6.66	-2.29	-2.35	-2.19	-1.48	-4.08
5:4	0.43	0.43	0.41	0.30	0.73	-0.42	-0.44	-0.39	-0.17	-1.02	-3.46	-3.59	-3.30	-1.98	-6.73	-2.24	-2.30	-2.14	-1.43	-4.12
6:1	0.41	0.42	0.39	0.29	0.71	-0.41	-0.42	-0.37	-0.17	-1.01	-3.28	-3.43	-3.11	-1.70	-6.75	-2.15	-2.22	-2.05	-1.34	-4.09
6:2	0.39	0.40	0.38	0.28	0.69	-0.39	-0.41	-0.36	-0.16	-0.98	-3.04	-3.22	-2.88	-1.38	-6.73	-2.06	-2.13	-1.96	-1.24	-4.03
6:3	0.38	0.38	0.36	0.27	0.66	-0.37	-0.39	-0.34	-0.15	-0.94	-2.77	-2.97	-2.61	-1.02	-6.68	-1.95	-2.03	-1.86	-1.13	-3.94
6:4	0.36	0.37	0.35	0.26	0.64	-0.36	-0.37	-0.33	-0.15	-0.91	-2.46	-2.69	-2.31	-0.63	-6.60	-1.84	-1.92	-1.75	-1.02	-3.85
7:1	0.35	0.35	0.33	0.25	0.61	-0.34	-0.36	-0.32	-0.14	-0.87	-2.13	-2.38	-1.99	-0.22	-6.50	-1.72	-1.81	-1.64	-0.90	-3.75
7:2	0.33	0.34	0.32	0.24	0.59	-0.33	-0.34	-0.30	-0.14	-0.84	-1.76	-2.06	-1.64	0.21	-6.38	-1.60	-1.70	-1.53	-0.77	-3.66
7:3	0.32	0.33	0.31	0.23	0.56	-0.32	-0.33	-0.29	-0.13	-0.80	-1.39	-1.73	-1.28	0.66	-6.25	-1.48	-1.59	-1.41	-0.65	-3.56
7:4	0.31	0.31	0.30	0.22	0.54	-0.30	-0.32	-0.28	-0.13	-0.77	-1.00	-1.38	-0.92	1.11	-6.11	-1.36	-1.48	-1.30	-0.53	-3.47
8:1	0.29	0.30	0.28	0.21	0.52	-0.29	-0.30	-0.27	-0.12	-0.74	-0.61	-1.04	-0.56	1.56	-5.98	-1.24	-1.37	-1.18	-0.40	-3.38
8:2	0.28	0.29	0.27	0.20	0.50	-0.28	-0.29	-0.26	-0.12	-0.71	-0.22	-0.71	-0.20	2.00	-5.84	-1.12	-1.26	-1.07	-0.28	-3.29
8:3	0.27	0.28	0.26	0.19	0.48	-0.27	-0.28	-0.25	-0.11	-0.68	0.17	-0.39	0.14	2.43	-5.71	-1.00	-1.16	-0.97	-0.17	-3.20
8:4	0.26	0.27	0.25	0.18	0.46	-0.26	-0.27	-0.24	-0.11	-0.66	0.54	-0.08	0.47	2.84	-5.58	-0.88	-1.06	-0.87	-0.05	-3.12
9:1	0.25	0.26	0.24	0.18	0.44	-0.25	-0.26	-0.23	-0.10	-0.63	0.90	0.21	0.79	3.24	-5.46	-0.77	-0.96	-0.77	0.05	-3.04
9:2	0.24	0.25	0.23	0.17	0.42	-0.24	-0.25	-0.22	-0.10	-0.60	1.24	0.48	1.08	3.62	-5.35	-0.67	-0.87	-0.68	0.16	-2.97
9:3	0.23	0.24	0.22	0.16	0.41	-0.23	-0.24	-0.21	-0.09	-0.58	1.56	0.73	1.35	3.96	-5.24	-0.57	-0.79	-0.59	0.25	-2.90
9:4	0.22	0.23	0.21	0.16	0.39	-0.22	-0.23	-0.20	-0.09	-0.56	1.86	0.96	1.60	4.29	-5.15	-0.47	-0.71	-0.51	0.35	-2.83
10:1	0.21	0.22	0.20	0.15	0.37	-0.21	-0.22	-0.19	-0.09	-0.53	2.13	1.17	1.82	4.58	-5.06	-0.39	-0.64	-0.44	0.43	-2.77
10:2	0.20	0.21	0.20	0.14	0.36	-0.20	-0.21	-0.19	-0.08	-0.51	2.38	1.36	2.02	4.84	-4.97	-0.31	-0.57	-0.37	0.51	-2.71
10:3	0.20	0.20	0.19	0.14	0.35	-0.19	-0.20	-0.18	-0.08	-0.49	2.60	1.52	2.20	5.07	-4.90	-0.23	-0.51	-0.30	0.57	-2.65
10:4	0.19	0.19	0.18	0.13	0.33	-0.19	-0.19	-0.17	-0.08	-0.47	2.80	1.67	2.36	5.27	-4.82	-0.16	-0.46	-0.25	0.64	-2.59
11:1	0.18	0.18	0.17	0.13	0.32	-0.18	-0.19	-0.16	-0.07	-0.45	2.97	1.80	2.50	5.44	-4.75	-0.10	-0.40	-0.19	0.69	-2.54
11:2	0.17	0.18	0.17	0.12	0.31	-0.17	-0.18	-0.16	-0.07	-0.44	3.12	1.92	2.62	5.59	-4.68	-0.04	-0.35	-0.14	0.74	-2.49
11:3	0.17	0.17	0.16	0.12	0.29	-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	-0.07	-0.42	3.25	2.03	2.73	5.72	-4.62	0.01	-0.31	-0.10	0.79	-2.44
11:4	0.16	0.16	0.15	0.11	0.28	-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.07	-0.40	3.37	2.13	2.83	5.82	-4.55	0.06	-0.26	-0.05	0.83	-2.39
12:1	0.15	0.16	0.15	0.11	0.27	-0.15	-0.16	-0.14	-0.06	-0.39	3.47	2.22	2.92	5.91	-4.49	0.12	-0.21	-0.00	0.88	-2.33
12:2	0.15	0.15	0.14	0.10	0.26	-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.06	-0.37	3.57	2.30	3.00	5.99	-4.42	0.17	-0.16	0.05	0.92	-2.27
12:3	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.10	0.25	-0.14	-0.15	-0.13	-0.06	-0.36	3.65	2.38	3.08	6.06	-4.36	0.22	-0.11	0.10	0.97	-2.21
12:4	0.14	0.14	0.13	0.10	0.24	-0.13	-0.14	-0.12	-0.06	-0.34	3.73	2.46	3.16	6.12	-4.29	0.27	-0.06	0.15	1.01	-2.16
13:1	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.09	0.23	-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.05	-0.33	3.80	2.54	3.23	6.17	-4.22	0.32	-0.01	0.19	1.05	-2.10
13:2	0.13	0.13	0.12	0.09	0.22	-0.12	-0.13	-0.11	-0.05	-0.31	3.86	2.61	3.29	6.21	-4.15	0.37	0.04	0.24	1.08	-2.04
13:3	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.09	0.21	-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.05	-0.30	3.92	2.68	3.36	6.25	-4.08	0.41	0.08	0.28	1.12	-1.99
13:4	0.12	0.12	0.11	0.08	0.20	-0.11	-0.12	-0.11	-0.05	-0.29	3.98	2.74	3.42	6.29	-4.00	0.45	0.12	0.32	1.15	-1.94
14:1	0.11	0.11	0.11	0.08	0.20	-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.05	-0.28	4.03	2.81	3.48	6.32	-3.93	0.49	0.17	0.36	1.18	-1.88
14:2	0.11	0.11	0.10	0.08	0.19	-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.04	-0.27	4.08	2.87	3.54	6.35	-3.86	0.53	0.21	0.40	1.21	-1.83
14:3	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.07	0.18	-0.10	-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.26	4.12	2.93	3.59	6.37	-3.78	0.56	0.25	0.44	1.24	-1.78
14:4	0.10	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.17	-0.10	-0.10	-0.09	-0.04	-0.25	4.16	2.99	3.65	6.39	-3.71	0.60	0.28	0.47	1.26	-1.73
15:1	0.09	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.17	-0.09	-0.10	-0.09	-0.04	-0.24	4.20	3.04	3.70	6.41	-3.64	0.63	0.32	0.51	1.29	-1.68
15:2	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.06	0.16	-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.04	-0.23	4.24	3.10	3.74	6.43	-3.56	0.66	0.36	0.54	1.31	-1.63
15:3	0.09	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.15	-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.04	-0.22	4.27	3.14	3.79	6.44	-3.49	0.69	0.39	0.57	1.33	-1.58
15:4	0.08	0.08	0.08	0.06	0.15	-0.08	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.21	4.30	3.19	3.83	6.45	-3.42	0.72	0.42	0.60	1.35	-1.54

Return to Figure 4.4

Figure 4.5. Illustrative Financial Crisis Under Optimal-Control Policies that Target the Adjusted Employment-Population Ratio When Persistently Low Interest Rates Generate Adverse Leverage and So Cause a Second Recession (FRB/US simulation results expressed as deviations from baseline)

Simulation Year:Simulation Quarter	Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects	Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects	Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects	Federal Funds Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects	Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects	Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects	Real Federal Funds Rate Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects	Real Federal Funds Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects	Real GDP Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects	Real GDP Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects	Real GDP Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects	Real GDP Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects	Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects	Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects	Unemployment Rate Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects	Unemployment Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects	Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects	Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects	Labor Force Participation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects	Labor Force Participation Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects	Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Absence of Leverage Effects	Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy in the Presence of Leverage Effects	Inflation Rate Under Optimal Control Policy that Constrains the Funds Rate to Avoid Leverage Effects	Inflation Rate Under the Inertial Policy Rule in the Presence of Leverage Effects
1:1	-1.86	-1.57	-1.49	-0.19	-1.90	-1.64	-1.58	0.17	-0.92	-0.92	-0.92	-0.89	0.12	0.12	0.12	0.11	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.04	0.06	0.09	-0.36
1:2	-3.38	-2.79	-2.65	-0.57	-3.42	-2.87	-2.80	0.18	-1.65	-1.64	-1.80	-1.94	0.28	0.28	0.31	0.33	-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	0.03	0.08	0.15	-0.75
1:3	-4.34	-3.44	-2.98	-1.15	-4.36	-3.53	-3.20	0.04	-2.40	-2.39	-2.72	-3.14	0.50	0.49	0.58	0.68	-0.24	-0.24	-0.25	-0.25	0.02	0.09	0.22	-1.19
1:4	-4.48	-4.03	-2.99	-1.88	-4.48	-4.13	-3.28	-0.21	-2.92	-2.92	-3.44	-4.13	0.73	0.72	0.89	1.10	-0.37	-0.37	-0.38	-0.39	-0.00	0.11	0.29	-1.66
2:1	-4.49	-4.38	-2.99	-2.64	-4.43	-4.45	-3.28	-0.83	-3.37	-3.36	-4.08	-5.02	0.95	0.95	1.21	1.55	-0.46	-0.46	-0.48	-0.50	-0.06	0.06	0.28	-1.81
2:2	-4.49	-4.43	-3.00	-3.41	-4.43	-4.50	-3.31	-1.46	-3.75	-3.71	-4.62	-5.75	1.17	1.15	1.53	1.99	-0.53	-0.53	-0.56	-0.61	-0.06	0.07	0.31	-1.94
2:3	-4.49	-4.44	-3.00	-4.14	-4.44	-4.52	-3.34	-2.10	-4.09	-4.03	-5.09	-6.38	1.36	1.33	1.81	2.39	-0.58	-0.58	-0.64	-0.73	-0.05	0.09	0.34	-2.04
2:4	-4.49	-4.44	-3.00	-4.47	-4.47	-4.55	-3.39	-2.37	-4.40	-4.31	-5.51	-6.92	1.52	1.48	2.05	2.72	-0.63	-0.63	-0.72	-0.86	-0.02	0.11	0.38	-2.10
3:1	-4.49	-4.44	-3.00	-4.47	-4.50	-4.59	-3.43	-2.34	-4.61	-4.50	-5.81	-7.31	1.66	1.61	2.25	2.98	-0.66	-0.65	-0.79	-0.97	0.01	0.15	0.43	-2.13
3:2	-4.49	-4.44	-3.00	-4.47	-4.53	-4.62	-3.48	-2.32	-4.69	-4.55	-5.97	-7.55	1.75	1.69	2.39	3.15	-0.68	-0.67	-0.86	-1.07	0.04	0.18	0.48	-2.16
3:3	-4.49	-4.44	-3.00	-4.47	-4.56	-4.66	-3.52	-2.30	-4.63	-4.48	-5.98	-7.64	1.78	1.71	2.45	3.24	-0.70	-0.69	-0.92	-1.17	0.07	0.22	0.52	-2.18
3:4	-4.49	-4.44	-3.01	-4.47	-4.59	-4.68	-3.57	-2.28	-4.47	-4.30	-5.87	-7.62	1.76	1.67	2.43	3.25	-0.72	-0.69	-0.97	-1.25	0.10	0.25	0.56	-2.19
4:1	-4.49	-4.44	-3.01	-4.47	-4.62	-4.71	-3.61	-2.27	-4.21	-4.03	-5.66	-7.50	1.67	1.58	2.35	3.18	-0.72	-0.69	-1.01	-1.32	0.12	0.27	0.60	-2.20
4:2	-4.49	-4.44	-3.01	-4.47	-4.64	-4.74	-3.65	-2.27	-3.89	-3.69	-5.37	-7.30	1.54	1.44	2.20	3.05	-0.72	-0.68	-1.04	-1.37	0.15	0.30	0.65	-2.21
4:3	-4.49	-4.44	-3.01	-4.47	-4.67	-4.77	-3.70	-2.27	-3.51	-3.30	-5.02	-7.05	1.36	1.25	2.00	2.87	-0.70	-0.66	-1.05	-1.41	0.18	0.33	0.69	-2.21
4:4	-4.49	-4.47	-3.01	-4.47	-4.71	-4.83	-3.75	-2.27	-3.09	-2.88	-4.62	-6.76	1.14	1.04	1.77	2.65	-0.66	-0.62	-1.04	-1.43	0.21	0.36	0.74	-2.20
5:1	-4.49	-4.46	-3.01	-4.47	-4.73	-4.85	-3.79	-2.28	-2.65	-2.43	-4.18	-6.44	0.91	0.81	1.51	2.41	-0.62	-0.57	-1.01	-1.44	0.24	0.39	0.79	-2.19
5:2	-4.49	-4.24	-3.00	-4.47	-4.77	-4.66	-3.84	-2.30	-2.19	-1.98	-3.70	-6.10	0.67	0.56	1.23	2.15	-0.56	-0.51	-0.96	-1.43	0.28	0.42	0.84	-2.18
5:3	-4.49	-3.83	-3.00	-4.47	-4.80	-4.28	-3.89	-2.32	-1.73	-1.53	-3.21	-5.73	0.42	0.32	0.95	1.89	-0.50	-0.45	-0.90	-1.40	0.31	0.45	0.89	-2.16
5:4	-4.48	-3.43	-3.00	-4.47	-4.83	-3.91	-3.94	-2.34	-1.27	-1.11	-2.71	-5.35	0.18	0.09	0.68	1.63	-0.44	-0.39	-0.83	-1.34	0.35	0.48	0.94	-2.13
6:1	-4.48	-3.16	-3.00	-4.44	-4.86	-3.67	-3.98	-2.33	-0.83	-0.70	-2.22	-4.95	-0.05	-0.13	0.41	1.38	-0.38	-0.33	-0.75	-1.28	0.38	0.51	0.98	-2.11
6:2	-4.48	-3.13	-3.00	-4.36	-4.89	-3.66	-4.03	-2.28	-0.39	-0.31	-1.72	-4.55	-0.27	-0.33	0.16	1.14	-0.32	-0.27	-0.68	-1.20	0.41	0.53	1.02	-2.08
6:3	-4.47	-3.35	-3.00	-4.23	-4.91	-3.90	-4.06	-2.18	0.02	0.07	-1.25	-4.17	-0.47	-0.51	-0.07	0.93	-0.26	-0.21	-0.60	-1.13	0.44	0.55	1.06	-2.05
6:4	-4.47	-3.27	-3.00	-4.08	-4.93	-3.83	-4.09	-2.06	0.41	0.45	-0.79	-3.80	-0.66	-0.68	-0.29	0.73	-0.20	-0.16	-0.53	-1.05	0.46	0.56	1.10	-2.02
7:1	-4.47	-2.98	-2.99	-3.91	-4.95	-3.55	-4.12	-1.91	0.77	0.82	-0.35	-3.46	-0.82	-0.84	-0.49	0.55	-0.15	-0.11	-0.46	-0.97	0.49	0.56	1.13	-1.99
7:2	-4.47	-2.61	-2.99	-3.72	-4.97	-3.17	-4.15	-1.75	1.10	1.15	0.06	-3.15	-0.96	-0.98	-0.68	0.39	-0.10	-0.07	-0.39	-0.90	0.51	0.56	1.15	-1.97
7:3	-4.46	-2.17	-2.99	-3.53	-4.98	-2.73	-4.16	-1.58	1.39	1.46	0.44	-2.86	-1.08	-1.11	-0.84	0.24	-0.05	-0.02	-0.33	-0.83	0.52	0.56	1.17	-1.95
7:4	-4.46	-1.76	-2.99	-3.34	-4.99	-2.31	-4.17	-1.41	1.65	1.73	0.79	-2.60	-1.19	-1.22	-0.99	0.12	-0.01	0.02	-0.28	-0.77	0.54	0.54	1.18	-1.93
8:1	-4.44	-1.44	-2.99	-3.16	-4.98	-1.96	-4.18	-1.24	1.88	1.98	1.10	-2.37	-1.27	-1.31	-1.11	0.01	0.02	0.05	-0.23	-0.71	0.54	0.52	1.19	-1.92
8:2	-4.42	-1.26	-2.98	-2.99	-4.97	-1.75	-4.18	-1.08	2.06	2.21	1.39	-2.16	-1.33	-1.39	-1.22	-0.08	0.05	0.08	-0.18	-0.65	0.55	0.49	1.19	-1.91
8:3	-4.36	-1.19	-2.99	-2.83	-4.91	-1.64	-4.18	-0.91	2.21	2.43	1.64	-1.96	-1.37	-1.45	-1.31	-0.16	0.08	0.11	-0.14	-0.60	0.55	0.45	1.19	-1.91
8:4	-4.22	-1.28	-2.98	-2.68	-4.77	-1.69	-4.15	-0.76	2.32	2.65	1.86	-1.79	-1.39	-1.51	-1.37	-0.23	0.10	0.13	-0.10	-0.56	0.55	0.41	1.17	-1.92
9:1	-4.02	-1.51	-2.98	-2.55	-4.56	-1.86	-4.13	-0.62	2.39	2.88	2.05	-1.63	-1.38	-1.57	-1.42	-0.29	0.12	0.15	-0.07	-0.52	0.54	0.35	1.16	-1.93
9:2	-3.84	-1.86	-2.97	-2.43	-4.37	-2.15	-4.10	-0.48	2.43	3.12	2.21	-1.48	-1.36	-1.63	-1.46	-0.34	0.13	0.17	-0.04	-0.48	0.53	0.29	1.13	-1.95
9:3	-3.62	-2.29	-2.96	-2.32	-4.14	-2.50	-4.07	-0.36	2.43	3.38	2.34	-1.33	-1.33	-1.70	-1.48	-0.38	0.14	0.19	-0.01	-0.44	0.52	0.22	1.10	-1.97
9:4	-3.40	-2.70	-2.96	-2.23	-3.90	-2.84	-4.03	-0.24	2.39	3.66	2.45	-1.20	-1.27	-1.77	-1.48	-0.42	0.15	0.21	0.01	-0.41	0.50	0.14	1.07	-2.00
10:1	-3.18	-3.04	-2.96	-2.28	-3.66	-3.10	-3.99	-0.25	2.34	3.22	2.52	-1.90	-1.20	-1.72	-1.47	-0.29	0.15	0.23	0.03	-0.38	0.48	0.06	1.03	-2.03
10:2	-2.97	-4.10	-2.95	-2.49	-3.43	-4.08	-3.94	-0.43	2.25	2.40	2.58	-2.96	-1.12	-1.49	-1.44	0.04	0.14	0.24	0.04	-0.37	0.46	-0.02	0.99	-2.06
10:3	-2.78	-4.48	-2.94	-2.85	-3.21	-4.38	-3.89	-0.75	2.16	1.53	2.61	-4.05	-1.03	-1.14	-1.41	0.51	0.14	0.23	0.05	-0.37	0.44	-0.10	0.94	-2.10
10:4	-2.60	-4.51	-2.92	-3.29	-3.01	-4.34	-3.82	-1.15	2.05	0.83	2.62	-4.90	-0.93	-0.73	-1.37	1.03	0.13	0.20	0.06	-0.41	0.41	-0.17	0.90	-2.13
11:1	-2.45	-4.53	-2.93	-3.76	-2.83	-4.29	-3.78	-1.60	1.97	0.30	2.65	-5.53	-0.83	-0.32	-1.32	1.53	0.12	0.15	0.06	-0.46	0.38	-0.24	0.85	-2.16
11:2	-2.32	-4.54	-2.93	-4.22	-2.68	-4.25	-3.73	-2.04	1.91	-0.05	2.69	-5.92	-0.74	0.04	-1.28	1.96	0.11	0.09	0.06	-0.54	0.35	-0.30	0.80	-2.19
11:3	-2.21	-4.56	-2.92	-4.47	-2.54	-4.21	-3.67	-2.27	1.86	-0.25	2.72	-6.15	-0.67	0.33	-1.24	2.28	0.09	0.03	0.07	-0.63	0.32	-0.35	0.75	-2.20
11:4	-2.12	-4.57	-2.90	-4.47	-2.42	-4.19	-3.60	-2.27	1.81	-0.34	2.75	-6.26	-0.60	0.53	-1.20	2.49	0.08	-0.03	0.07	-0.74	0.30	-0.38	0.70	-2.20
12:1	-2.05	-4.58	-2.88	-4.47	-2.31	-4.17	-3.52	-2.29	1.78	-0.33	2.77	-6.27	-0.54	0.66	-1.16	2.59	0.07	-0.08	0.07	-0.84	0.27	-0.41	0.65	-2.19
12:2	-1.98	-4.59	-2.83	-4.47	-2.22	-4.16	-3.43	-2.31	1.75	-0.24	2.79	-6.20	-0.48	0.71	-1.12	2.60	0.06	-0.11	0.07	-0.93	0.24	-0.43	0.60	-2.16
12:3	-1.93	-4.59	-2.72	-4.47	-2.14	-4.15	-3.27	-2.34	1.73	-0.10	2.79	-6.09	-0.44	0.71	-1.08	2.53	0.05	-0.14	0.07	-1.00	0.22	-0.44	0.55	-2.13
12:4	-1.88	-4.60	-2.58	-4.47	-2.07	-4.15	-3.09	-2.38	1.71	0.08	2.78	-5.93	-0.40	0.66	-1.03	2.41	0.04	-0.15	0.07	-1.07	0.19	-0.45	0.51	-2.09
13:1	-1.83	-4.60	-2.43	-4.47	-2.00	-4.15	-2.90	-2.43	1.70	0.29	2.76	-5.73	-0.36	0.57	-0.99	2.25	0.04	-0.16	0.07	-1.11	0.17	-0.44	0.46	-2.04
13:2	-1.78	-4.59	-2.28	-4.47	-1.93	-4.16	-2.70	-2.49	1.69	0.53	2.73	-5.51	-0.33	0.45	-0.93	2.07	0.03	-0.15	0.06	-1.14	0.15	-0.43	0.42	-1.98
13:3	-1.73	-4.59	-2.12	-4.47	-1.86	-4.17	-2.51	-2.55	1.69	0.78	2.69	-5.26	-0.30	0.32	-0.88	1.87	0.03	-0.14	0.06	-1.14	0.13	-0.42	0.38	-1.92
13:4	-1.68	-4.59	-1.98	-4.41	-1.80	-4.19	-2.33	-2.56	1.68	1.04	2.64	-5.00	-0.28	0.18	-0.82	1.67	0.02	-0.12	0.06	-1.13	0.12	-0.39	0.35	-1.85
14:1	-1.64	-4.58	-1.85	-4.31	-1.74	-4.22	-2.17	-2.53	1.68	1.30	2.58	-4.72	-0.26	0.04	-0.76	1.47	0.02	-0.10	0.05	-1.11	0.11	-0.36	0.31	-1.78
14:2	-1.60	-4.57	-1.74	-4.17	-1.69	-4.24	-2.03	-2.48	1.69	1.55	2.52	-4.43	-0.24	-0.10	-0.70	1.28	0.02	-0.07	0.05	-1.07	0.10	-0.33	0.28	-1.69
14:3	-1.55	-4.57	-1.65	-4.00	-1.64	-4.28	-1.90	-2.39	1.69	1.80	2.47	-4.15	-0.23	-0.24	-0.64	1.11	0.02	-0.05	0.04	-1.02	0.09	-0.29	0.25	-1.61
14:4	-1.51	-4.56	-1.56	-3.81	-1.59	-4.31	-1.79	-2.29	1.70	2.04	2.41	-3.88	-0.22	-0.37	-0.58	0.95	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.96	0.08	-0.25	0.23	-1.52
15:1	-1.46	-4.55	-1.48	-3.61	-1.54	-4.35	-1.69	-2.18	1.70	2.25	2.35	-3.63	-0.21	-0.49	-0.53	0.80	0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.91	0.08	-0.20	0.20	-1.43
15:2	-1.41	-4.54	-1.41	-3.39	-1.48	-4.39	-1.59	-2.05	1.71	2.45	2.30	-3.40	-0.20	-0.59	-0.47	0.68	0.01	0.03	0.02	-0.85	0.07	-0.15	0.18	-1.34
15:3	-1.36	-4.53	-1.35	-3.17	-1.43	-4.44	-1.51	-1.92	1.72	2.63	2.25	-3.19	-0.19	-0.68	-0.42	0.57	0.01	0.05	0.01	-0.80	0.07	-0.10	0.16	-1.25
15:4	-1.31	-4.52	-1.30	-2.96	-1.38	-4.48	-1.44	-1.80	1.72	2.78	2.21	-3.00	-0.18	-0.76	-0.38	0.48	0.01	0.07	0.01	-0.75	0.07	-0.04	0.14	-1.16
	-1.27	-4.51	-1.26	-2.74	-1.34	-4.52	-1.38	-1.67	1.73	2.90	2.16	-2.84	-0.17	-0.82	-0.34	0.40	0.01	0.09	0.00	-0.71	0.07	0.01	0.13	-1.07
	-1.22	-3.69	-1.22	-2.54	-1.30	-3.75	-1.33	-1.55	1.73	2.99	2.13	-2.70	-0.17	-0.86	-0.30	0.34	0.01	0.11	-0.00	-0.66	0.08	0.06	0.11	-0.99
	-1.18	-2.99	-1.19	-2.34	-1.26	-3.10	-1.29	-1.43	1.73	3.03	2.09	-2.57	-0.16	-0.88	-0.26	0.30	0.01	0.12	-0.01	-0.63	0.08	0.11	0.10	-0.91
	-1.14	-2.41	-1.16	-2.16	-1.23	-2.58	-1.25	-1.32	1.74	3.01	2.06	-2.47	-0.15	-0.88	-0.23	0.26	0.01	0.13	-0.01	-0.59	0.08	0.16	0.09	-0.84
	-1.11	-1.95	-1.13	-1.99	-1.19	-2.16	-1.21	-1.21	1.74	2.96	2.03	-2.38	-0.15	-0.85	-0.21	0.24	0.01	0.14	-0.02	-0.56	0.09	0.21	0.08	-0.77
	-1.07	-1.59	-1.10	-1.83	-1.16	-1.83	-1.17	-1.12	1.74	2.88	2.01	-2.31	-0.14	-0.81	-0.19	0.23	0.01	0.14	-0.02	-0.53	0.09	0.25	0.07	-0.71
	-1.03	-1.32	-1.06	-1.69	-1.12	-1.60	-1.13	-1.03	1.74	2.79	1.99	-2.25	-0.14	-0.75	-0.16	0.22	0.01	0.14	-0.02	-0.51	0.09	0.28	0.07	-0.65
	-1.00	-1.13	-1.03	-1.56	-1.09	-1.44	-1.10	-0.96	1.74	2.69	1.97	-2.20	-0.13	-0.68	-0.15	0.22	0.01	0.13	-0.02	-0.49	0.10	0.31	0.06	-0.60
	-0.97	-1.01	-1.01	-1.45	-1.07	-1.34	-1.07	-0.89	1.74	2.60	1.95	-2.15	-0.12	-0.61	-0.13	0.22	0.01	0.12	-0.02	-0.47	0.10	0.33	0.06	-0.56
	-0.94	-0.95	-0.98	-1.34	-1.05	-1.29	-1.04	-0.83	1.74	2.51	1.93	-2.11	-0.12	-0.53	-0.12	0.23	0.01	0.11	-0.03	-0.45	0.10	0.34	0.05	-0.52
	-0.92	-0.92	-0.96	-1.26	-1.03	-1.27	-1.01	-0.77	1.74	2.44	1.91	-2.08	-0.11	-0.47	-0.10	0.24	0.01	0.10	-0.03	-0.43	0.11	0.35	0.05	-0.48
	-0.90	-0.93	-0.94	-1.18	-1.01	-1.28	-0.99	-0.73	1.73	2.37	1.90	-2.04	-0.11	-0.41	-0.09	0.25	0.01	0.09	-0.03	-0.42	0.11	0.35	0.05	-0.45
	-0.88	-0.95	-0.91	-1.11	-0.99	-1.30	-0.96	-0.69	1.73	2.33	1.88	-2.01	-0.10	-0.35	-0.08	0.27	0.01	0.08	-0.03	-0.40	0.11	0.35	0.05	-0.42
	-0.85	-0.99	-0.88	-1.05	-0.96	-1.33	-0.93	-0.65	1.73	2.29	1.87	-1.98	-0.09	-0.31	-0.07	0.28	0.01	0.07	-0.03	-0.39	0.11	0.35	0.05	-0.40
	-0.83	-1.02	-0.85	-1.00	-0.94	-1.37	-0.91	-0.62	1.72	2.27	1.85	-1.94	-0.09	-0.27	-0.06	0.29	0.01	0.06	-0.03	-0.38	0.11	0.34	0.05	-0.38
	-0.81	-1.06	-0.83	-0.96	-0.92	-1.40	-0.88	-0.60	1.72	2.25	1.84	-1.91	-0.08	-0.25	-0.05	0.30	0.00	0.05	-0.03	-0.37	0.11	0.33	0.05	-0.37
	-0.79	-1.10	-0.80	-0.93	-0.90	-1.43	-0.86	-0.57	1.71	2.25	1.82	-1.87	-0.08	-0.23	-0.04	0.31	0.00	0.05	-0.03	-0.36	0.11	0.32	0.05	-0.35
	-0.77	-1.13	-0.78	-0.89	-0.89	-1.45	-0.84	-0.55	1.71	2.25	1.81	-1.83	-0.07	-0.22	-0.03	0.31	0.00	0.04	-0.03	-0.35	0.11	0.31	0.05	-0.34
	-0.76	-1.16	-0.76	-0.87	-0.87	-1.46	-0.82	-0.54	1.70	2.26	1.79	-1.79	-0.07	-0.21	-0.02	0.32	0.00	0.04	-0.03	-0.34	0.11	0.30	0.06	-0.33
	-0.74	-1.17	-0.74	-0.85	-0.85	-1.46	-0.79	-0.52	1.70	2.27	1.78	-1.75	-0.06	-0.20	-0.02	0.32	0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.33	0.11	0.29	0.06	-0.32

Return to Figure 4.5

Figure A.1. Sensitivity of Supply-Side Estimates to Changes in Model Specification Potential Output Growth (4-quarter)

	Estimated 4-Quarter Growth in Potential Output from the Baseline Model	Estimated 4-Quarter Growth in Potential Output from the Model with a Post-1994 Shift in the Slope of the Phillips Curve	Estimated 4-Quarter Growth in Potential Output from the Model Without Inflation	Estimated 4-Quarter Growth in Potential Output from the Model Without Nonfarm Business Income	Estimated Natural Rate of Unemployment from the Baseline Model	Estimated Natural Rate of Unemployment from the Model with a Post-1994 Shift in the Slope of the Phillips Curve	Estimated Natural Rate of Unemployment from the Model Without Inflation	Estimated Natural Rate of Unemployment from the Model Without Nonfarm Business Income
1990Q1	3.20	3.13	3.14	3.28	5.70	5.86	6.15	5.87
1990Q2	3.21	3.13	3.14	3.14	5.61	5.78	6.07	5.77
1990Q3	3.16	3.09	3.09	3.06	5.60	5.78	6.08	5.74
1990Q4	3.11	3.04	3.03	3.06	5.54	5.74	6.04	5.69
1991Q1	2.71	2.64	2.62	2.77	5.51	5.72	6.02	5.66
1991Q2	2.49	2.42	2.39	2.64	5.44	5.66	5.96	5.59
1991Q3	2.35	2.28	2.24	2.59	5.30	5.53	5.84	5.46
1991Q4	2.48	2.42	2.38	2.55	5.26	5.50	5.82	5.44
1992Q1	2.82	2.77	2.72	2.59	5.40	5.65	5.96	5.51
1992Q2	3.01	2.97	2.92	2.75	5.49	5.75	6.07	5.57
1992Q3	3.06	3.02	2.97	2.76	5.51	5.77	6.11	5.60
1992Q4	2.85	2.82	2.76	2.68	5.48	5.75	6.10	5.58
1993Q1	2.40	2.36	2.29	2.72	5.35	5.63	5.99	5.51
1993Q2	2.21	2.17	2.10	2.63	5.35	5.63	6.01	5.55
1993Q3	1.94	1.90	1.83	2.51	5.29	5.58	5.98	5.52
1993Q4	2.27	2.23	2.16	2.66	5.30	5.59	6.01	5.52
1994Q1	2.68	2.64	2.59	2.77	5.29	5.59	6.01	5.51
1994Q2	2.90	2.87	2.81	2.96	5.21	5.51	5.95	5.45
1994Q3	3.28	3.25	3.19	3.20	5.19	5.50	5.96	5.47
1994Q4	3.07	3.03	2.97	3.08	5.16	5.48	5.95	5.45
1995Q1	2.71	2.67	2.62	2.90	5.13	5.46	5.94	5.43
1995Q2	2.48	2.43	2.38	2.62	5.24	5.57	6.06	5.53
1995Q3	2.32	2.27	2.22	2.49	5.30	5.64	6.13	5.58
1995Q4	2.35	2.30	2.26	2.53	5.33	5.68	6.18	5.60
1996Q1	2.69	2.64	2.60	2.68	5.30	5.65	6.16	5.55
1996Q2	3.19	3.15	3.10	3.04	5.33	5.69	6.19	5.56
1996Q3	3.36	3.32	3.27	3.20	5.32	5.68	6.19	5.55
1996Q4	3.56	3.52	3.47	3.36	5.42	5.79	6.30	5.65
1997Q1	3.64	3.59	3.55	3.49	5.43	5.81	6.32	5.66
1997Q2	3.61	3.57	3.51	3.51	5.37	5.75	6.28	5.62
1997Q3	3.92	3.88	3.83	3.64	5.40	5.79	6.32	5.64
1997Q4	3.94	3.90	3.84	3.67	5.37	5.77	6.31	5.60
1998Q1	3.86	3.83	3.77	3.59	5.39	5.80	6.34	5.61
1998Q2	3.79	3.75	3.70	3.57	5.31	5.72	6.27	5.50
1998Q3	3.78	3.75	3.70	3.51	5.42	5.83	6.38	5.56
1998Q4	3.85	3.82	3.77	3.59	5.48	5.90	6.44	5.62
1999Q1	3.95	3.93	3.88	3.62	5.52	5.94	6.49	5.64
1999Q2	3.93	3.91	3.85	3.67	5.51	5.94	6.49	5.64
1999Q3	3.86	3.84	3.78	3.72	5.54	5.97	6.52	5.70
1999Q4	4.11	4.09	4.04	3.76	5.54	5.97	6.53	5.70
2000Q1	4.22	4.20	4.15	3.85	5.58	6.01	6.56	5.67
2000Q2	4.34	4.33	4.28	3.78	5.56	5.99	6.55	5.64
2000Q3	4.08	4.07	4.02	3.58	5.58	6.01	6.57	5.65
2000Q4	3.65	3.64	3.58	3.38	5.44	5.88	6.44	5.54
2001Q1	3.27	3.26	3.20	3.05	5.44	5.87	6.44	5.50
2001Q2	2.90	2.90	2.83	2.74	5.39	5.82	6.39	5.42
2001Q3	2.85	2.85	2.78	2.63	5.36	5.78	6.36	5.39
2001Q4	2.74	2.76	2.69	2.38	5.48	5.90	6.47	5.52
2002Q1	2.65	2.68	2.60	2.20	5.54	5.95	6.52	5.51
2002Q2	2.67	2.69	2.62	2.34	5.54	5.95	6.52	5.51
2002Q3	2.49	2.51	2.44	2.28	5.42	5.82	6.40	5.42
2002Q4	2.27	2.28	2.21	2.21	5.39	5.80	6.38	5.42
2003Q1	2.37	2.38	2.31	2.32	5.31	5.71	6.30	5.34
2003Q2	2.20	2.22	2.16	1.97	5.47	5.86	6.45	5.47
2003Q3	2.09	2.11	2.06	1.73	5.53	5.92	6.50	5.49
2003Q4	2.44	2.47	2.42	1.99	5.46	5.84	6.43	5.42
2004Q1	2.45	2.48	2.44	2.05	5.47	5.85	6.44	5.45
2004Q2	2.41	2.44	2.40	2.13	5.47	5.85	6.44	5.43
2004Q3	2.76	2.78	2.74	2.52	5.46	5.83	6.43	5.40
2004Q4	2.75	2.78	2.75	2.53	5.46	5.83	6.43	5.42
2005Q1	2.78	2.81	2.78	2.52	5.46	5.82	6.43	5.41
2005Q2	2.91	2.94	2.91	2.76	5.42	5.78	6.39	5.38
2005Q3	2.77	2.80	2.77	2.63	5.39	5.75	6.36	5.36
2005Q4	2.53	2.57	2.54	2.47	5.47	5.82	6.44	5.43
2006Q1	2.51	2.55	2.53	2.51	5.46	5.80	6.42	5.38
2006Q2	2.48	2.52	2.50	2.47	5.49	5.83	6.45	5.41
2006Q3	2.30	2.33	2.31	2.46	5.53	5.86	6.49	5.45
2006Q4	2.17	2.22	2.19	2.42	5.49	5.82	6.46	5.39
2007Q1	1.95	1.99	1.95	2.36	5.46	5.78	6.43	5.40
2007Q2	1.90	1.94	1.90	2.29	5.38	5.69	6.35	5.37
2007Q3	2.05	2.11	2.06	2.27	5.40	5.70	6.37	5.45
2007Q4	2.43	2.48	2.43	2.49	5.36	5.65	6.33	5.44
2008Q1	2.72	2.78	2.73	2.66	5.33	5.61	6.29	5.40
2008Q2	2.94	3.00	2.95	2.79	5.32	5.59	6.28	5.39
2008Q3	2.87	2.93	2.88	2.74	5.40	5.66	6.35	5.44
2008Q4	2.38	2.43	2.38	2.44	5.39	5.64	6.33	5.46
2009Q1	1.47	1.53	1.48	1.55	5.70	5.93	6.62	5.74
2009Q2	1.40	1.47	1.41	1.38	5.82	6.03	6.72	5.84
2009Q3	1.67	1.74	1.67	1.56	5.65	5.86	6.54	5.70
2009Q4	1.84	1.91	1.84	1.51	5.72	5.92	6.60	5.76
2010Q1	2.31	2.37	2.30	1.94	5.74	5.93	6.61	5.73
2010Q2	1.85	1.90	1.84	1.75	5.72	5.90	6.59	5.73
2010Q3	1.06	1.10	1.05	1.11	5.82	6.01	6.70	5.82
2010Q4	0.59	0.63	0.59	0.80	6.00	6.18	6.87	5.99
2011Q1	0.54	0.57	0.54	0.86	5.81	5.98	6.69	5.80
2011Q2	0.50	0.53	0.50	0.76	5.90	6.07	6.78	5.91
2011Q3	0.73	0.76	0.73	1.01	5.92	6.08	6.80	5.97
2011Q4	1.12	1.14	1.11	1.33	5.83	5.99	6.72	5.91
2012Q1	1.15	1.17	1.14	1.33	5.72	5.88	6.61	5.80
2012Q2	1.04	1.05	1.02	1.23	5.78	5.94	6.68	5.89
2012Q3	0.99	1.00	0.97	1.15	5.75	5.91	6.66	5.90
2012Q4	0.90	0.91	0.89	1.10	5.77	5.93	6.67	5.88
2013Q1	1.09	1.10	1.08	1.18	5.78	5.94	6.69	5.88
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4

Return to Figure A.1

Figure A.2 Output Gap Estimates -- State-Space Model Versus EDO

	Lower Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the GDP Gap	Upper Bound of the 95 Percent Confidence Interval for the GDP Gap	Estimated GDP GAP From the State-Space Model	Production-Function Estimate of the GDP GAP From the EDO Model	Beveridge-Nelson Estimate of the GDP Gap From the EDO Model
1985Q1	-2.58	0.58	-1.00	0.22	1.90
1985Q2	-2.69	0.47	-1.11	0.13	1.72
1985Q3	-2.64	0.52	-1.06	0.14	1.71
1985Q4	-2.65	0.51	-1.07	0.26	1.55
1986Q1	-2.59	0.57	-1.01	-0.02	1.08
1986Q2	-2.75	0.41	-1.17	-0.38	0.53
1986Q3	-2.71	0.45	-1.13	-0.47	0.40
1986Q4	-2.58	0.58	-1.00	-0.26	0.38
1987Q1	-2.29	0.87	-0.71	0.31	0.58
1987Q2	-1.83	1.33	-0.25	0.62	0.80
1987Q3	-1.63	1.53	-0.05	0.82	0.96
1987Q4	-1.19	1.97	0.39	0.91	1.34
1988Q1	-1.19	1.97	0.39	1.22	1.35
1988Q2	-0.64	2.52	0.94	1.84	1.86
1988Q3	-0.67	2.49	0.91	2.21	1.94
1988Q4	-0.16	3.00	1.42	2.72	2.40
1989Q1	-0.44	2.72	1.14	3.18	2.78
1989Q2	-0.85	2.31	0.73	3.09	2.64
1989Q3	-0.95	2.21	0.63	3.02	2.53
1989Q4	-1.22	1.94	0.36	3.09	2.33
1990Q1	-1.29	1.88	0.29	2.97	2.36
1990Q2	-1.68	1.48	-0.10	2.51	1.89
1990Q3	-2.54	0.62	-0.96	2.00	1.27
1990Q4	-3.65	-0.48	-2.07	1.21	0.15
1991Q1	-4.56	-1.39	-2.98	0.31	-0.88
1991Q2	-4.81	-1.65	-3.23	-0.59	-1.51
1991Q3	-5.09	-1.92	-3.51	-1.18	-1.88
1991Q4	-5.53	-2.36	-3.95	-1.90	-2.37
1992Q1	-5.48	-2.31	-3.90	-2.42	-2.72
1992Q2	-5.40	-2.23	-3.81	-2.85	-2.78
1992Q3	-5.34	-2.17	-3.76	-3.03	-2.85
1992Q4	-4.74	-1.57	-3.16	-2.77	-2.59
1993Q1	-4.74	-1.57	-3.16	-2.32	-2.38
1993Q2	-4.35	-1.18	-2.77	-1.70	-2.03
1993Q3	-4.18	-1.00	-2.59	-1.47	-2.02
1993Q4	-3.62	-0.45	-2.04	-1.35	-1.77
1994Q1	-3.41	-0.24	-1.83	-1.11	-1.53
1994Q2	-2.77	0.40	-1.19	-0.34	-0.84
1994Q3	-2.51	0.67	-0.92	0.28	-0.58
1994Q4	-2.04	1.14	-0.45	0.44	-0.30
1995Q1	-2.09	1.09	-0.50	0.62	-0.34
1995Q2	-2.39	0.79	-0.80	0.46	-0.65
1995Q3	-1.97	1.21	-0.38	0.44	-0.65
1995Q4	-1.97	1.21	-0.38	0.05	-0.90
1996Q1	-2.06	1.13	-0.46	-0.38	-1.25
1996Q2	-1.63	1.56	-0.04	-0.53	-1.04
1996Q3	-1.36	1.84	0.24	-0.29	-0.84
1996Q4	-1.03	2.17	0.57	0.03	-0.63
1997Q1	-0.91	2.29	0.69	0.43	-0.34
1997Q2	-0.73	2.47	0.87	0.45	-0.18
1997Q3	-0.44	2.77	1.16	0.64	-0.02
1997Q4	-0.29	2.91	1.31	0.84	0.01
1998Q1	-0.15	3.05	1.45	1.02	0.13
1998Q2	0.00	3.21	1.61	1.28	0.17
1998Q3	0.10	3.32	1.71	1.09	0.09
1998Q4	0.51	3.72	2.12	1.45	0.50
1999Q1	0.64	3.86	2.25	1.72	0.56
1999Q2	0.58	3.80	2.19	2.18	0.67
1999Q3	0.72	3.94	2.33	2.38	0.77
1999Q4	1.11	4.34	2.72	2.60	0.99
2000Q1	1.28	4.52	2.90	3.01	1.00
2000Q2	1.25	4.49	2.87	2.87	1.05
2000Q3	1.02	4.27	2.64	3.11	0.82
2000Q4	0.51	3.76	2.14	2.96	0.50
2001Q1	0.18	3.44	1.81	2.79	-0.08
2001Q2	-0.61	2.66	1.02	2.01	-0.74
2001Q3	-1.70	1.57	-0.06	1.13	-1.66
2001Q4	-2.58	0.70	-0.94	0.19	-2.44
2002Q1	-2.31	0.98	-0.66	-0.71	-2.93
2002Q2	-2.32	0.97	-0.67	-0.74	-2.94
2002Q3	-2.49	0.81	-0.84	-1.07	-3.10
2002Q4	-2.60	0.70	-0.95	-1.25	-3.28
2003Q1	-3.01	0.31	-1.35	-1.62	-3.47
2003Q2	-2.89	0.44	-1.22	-1.98	-3.54
2003Q3	-2.28	1.06	-0.61	-2.06	-3.22
2003Q4	-2.02	1.33	-0.35	-1.69	-2.81
2004Q1	-1.89	1.46	-0.21	-1.18	-2.47
2004Q2	-1.62	1.74	0.06	-0.94	-2.16
2004Q3	-1.40	1.98	0.29	-0.55	-1.76
2004Q4	-1.36	2.03	0.34	-0.02	-1.27
2005Q1	-1.13	2.27	0.57	0.33	-0.81
2005Q2	-1.04	2.38	0.67	0.69	-0.49
2005Q3	-0.91	2.52	0.81	0.84	-0.17
2005Q4	-0.56	2.88	1.16	1.39	0.32
2006Q1	0.06	3.52	1.79	1.98	1.06
2006Q2	-0.12	3.36	1.62	2.52	1.51
2006Q3	-0.09	3.40	1.66	3.01	1.83
2006Q4	0.18	3.69	1.93	3.43	2.19
2007Q1	-0.38	3.15	1.39	3.75	2.39
2007Q2	-0.43	3.12	1.35	3.90	2.66
2007Q3	-0.83	2.74	0.95	3.83	2.64
2007Q4	-1.23	2.36	0.56	3.83	2.54
2008Q1	-1.78	1.83	0.02	3.82	2.20
2008Q2	-2.60	1.03	-0.79	3.67	2.00
2008Q3	-3.95	-0.29	-2.12	3.01	1.06
2008Q4	-6.59	-2.90	-4.75	1.65	-0.75
2009Q1	-8.18	-4.46	-6.32	-0.09	-2.63
2009Q2	-9.44	-5.70	-7.57	-1.94	-4.15
2009Q3	-9.92	-6.15	-8.04	-3.43	-5.04
2009Q4	-9.41	-5.61	-7.51	-3.88	-5.00
2010Q1	-8.80	-4.96	-6.88	-3.77	-4.69
2010Q2	-8.50	-4.63	-6.56	-3.45	-4.25
2010Q3	-7.82	-3.92	-5.87	-2.87	-3.65
2010Q4	-7.47	-3.53	-5.50	-2.50	-3.36
2011Q1	-7.25	-3.27	-5.26	-1.87	-3.02
2011Q2	-7.11	-3.09	-5.10	-1.48	-2.66
2011Q3	-7.08	-3.02	-5.05	-1.28	-2.48
2011Q4	-6.46	-2.35	-4.41	-1.08	-2.01
2012Q1	-5.96	-1.80	-3.88	-0.50	-1.58
2012Q2	-6.05	-1.84	-3.94	-0.47	-1.63
2012Q3	-5.71	-1.45	-3.58	-0.38	-1.45
2012Q4	-5.28	-0.96	-3.12	-0.11	-1.33
2013Q1	-5.29	-0.91	-3.10
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4

Return to Figure A.2

Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Figure 1.1 State-Space Model Estimates of Potential GDP and its Components (shaded region denotes 95% confidence interval)

Figure 1.2. Estimates of Resource Utilization (shaded region denotes 95% confidence interval)

Figure 1.3. Real-Time Estimates and Projections of Potential Output and the Natural Rate

Figure 2.1 - Employment Losses in Housing-Related Industries

Figure 2.2 - Dispersion in Employment Change Across Industries

Figure 2.3 - Variance in Cumulative Change in Industry Employment Shares over the Business Cycle

Figure 2.4 - Permanent Job Loss

Figure 2.5 - Beveridge Curve

Figure 2.6 - Barnichon-Figura Estimate of Matching Efficiency

Figure 2.7 - Long-Term Unemployment

Figure 2.8 - Job Finding Rates by Unemployment Duration

Figure 2.9 - Labor Force Exit by Unemployment Duration

Figure 2.10 - Disability Insurance (SSDI) Recipiency

Figure 3.1a - Startups and Young Business Employment (New Establishments)

Figure 3.1b Startups and Young Business Employment (Employment at Startups and Young Businesses)

Figure 4.1 Assumed Relationship Between the Level of Slack and the Relative Strength of Hysteresis Effects

Figure 4.2. Financial Crisis Scenario Under the Inertial Policy Rule (deviations from baseline)

Figure 4.3. Macroeconomic Effects of the Illustrative Financial Crisis Under Optimal Control (OC) Policy Without and With Recognition of Supply-Side Damage and Policy Feedback Effects on Supply-Side Conditions (FRB/US simulation results expressed as deviations from baseline)

Figure 4.4. Supply-Side Effects of the Illustrative Financial Crisis Under Optimal Control (OC) Policy Without and With Recognition of Supply-Side Damage and Policy Feedback Effects on Supply-Side Conditions (FRB/US simulation results expressed as deviations from baseline)

Figure 4.5. Illustrative Financial Crisis Under Optimal-Control Policies that Target the Adjusted Employment-Population Ratio When Persistently Low Interest Rates Generate Adverse Leverage and So Cause a Second Recession (FRB/US simulation results expressed as deviations from baseline)

Figure A.1. Sensitivity of Supply-Side Estimates to Changes in Model Specification Potential Output Growth (4-quarter)

Figure A.2 Output Gap Estimates -- State-Space Model Versus EDO