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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
International Finance Discussion Papers
Number 983, October 2009 --- Screen Reader Version*

The Effects of Foreign Shocks When Interest Rates are at Zero^**

Martin Bodenstein, Christopher J. Erceg, and Luca Guerrieri^***

NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs are available on the Web at http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http://www.ssrn.com/.

Abstract:

In a two-country DSGE model, the effects of foreign demand shocks on the home country are greatly amplified if the home economy is constrained by the zero lower bound for policy interest rates. This result applies even to countries that are relatively closed to trade such as the United States. The duration of the liquidity trap is determined endogenously. Adverse foreign shocks can extend the duration of the liquidity trap, implying more contractionary effects for the home country; conversely, large positive shocks can prompt an early exit, implying effects that are closer to those when the zero bound constraint is not binding.

Keywords: Zero lower bound, spillover effects, DSGE models

JEL classification: F32, F41

1.  Introduction

For large and relatively closed economies such as the United States and the euro area, foreign shocks are often perceived as having small effects on domestic output. Thus, researchers, policymakers, and forecasters frequently abstract from the open economy dimension in analyzing business cycle fluctuations in large economies.¹

The expanding literature that uses open economy DSGE models to analyze the transmission of shocks across countries appears to corroborate this view. Drawing on the two country real business cycle model of [Backus et al. 1992], [Baxter and Crucini 1995] show that a positive country-specific productivity shock in the foreign sector induces a small contraction in domestic output. Thus, accounting for positive comovement in output across countries requires substantial correlation in the underlying shocks. More recent analysis that incorporates nominal price rigidities and a wider set of shocks, including work by [Lubik and Schorfheide 2005] and [Adolfson et al. 2007], also finds that country-specific shocks abroad tend to have very small effects on home output.²

Although these results support the view that foreign shocks typically have a small impact on large economies such as the United States, a key qualification is that they are derived under the assumption that monetary policy has complete latitude to offset shocks by adjusting policy rates. A wide group of economies - including the United States and Japan - have been constrained from reducing policy rates for some time. In our analysis, the effects of foreign shocks on domestic output are greatly amplified by a prolonged liquidity trap, even for relatively closed economies.

We analyze the spillover effects of country-specific foreign shocks in a two country DSGE model that imposes the zero bound constraint on policy rates. The model incorporates nominal and real rigidities that have been found to be empirically relevant in both the closed and open economy DSGE literature, including sticky prices and wages, and habit persistence in consumption.³ Our benchmark simulations assume that only the home country is constrained by the zero lower bound, though we also conduct sensitivity analysis which allows for both economies to be constrained.

The model is calibrated based on data for the United States (the home country) and an aggregate of its trading partners. A foreign demand shock that reduces foreign output by 1 percent induces U.S. GDP to fall only around 0.3 percent in normal circumstances in which U.S. short-term interest rates decline as prescribed by a standard linear Taylor rule. With the United States in a liquidity trap lasting 10 quarters (our benchmark case), the same foreign shock causes U.S. output to fall 0.7 percent.

The foreign shock has a similar contractionary effect on home exports irrespective of whether domestic monetary policy is constrained: exports fall in response to lower foreign absorption, and because lower foreign policy rates cause the home real exchange rate to appreciate. With policy rates unconstrained, the impact on home output is cushioned by a robust expansion of private domestic demand, as monetary policy responds immediately to lower demand and inflation, and real rates fall at all maturities. By contrast, because home policy rates remain frozen for some time in a liquidity trap, the fall in expected inflation pushes up short-term real interest rates, implying a much smaller expansion in domestic demand than in the unconstrained case. If the liquidity trap is sufficiently prolonged, private demand can even fall.

An important feature of our modeling framework is the endogenous determination of the duration of the liquidity trap. In our simulations the exit date from the trap depends both on the underlying domestic shock that is assumed to generate the liquidity trap - a preference shock that depresses the natural real interest rate - and on the characteristics of the foreign demand shock. The effects of a foreign shock on domestic GDP are linear provided that the size of the shock is small. However, if foreign shocks are large enough to affect the duration of the liquidity trap, their effects become nonlinear. Intuitively, negative foreign shocks of larger magnitude extend the duration of the liquidity trap, implying more contractionary marginal effects; conversely, positive shocks can prompt an early exit, implying effects that are closer to those when the zero bound constraint is not binding.

We conduct sensitivity analysis on several dimensions, including to the conduct of domestic and foreign monetary policy, to the trade price elasticities, and to the nature of the shocks affecting the foreign economy. Our result that the effects of foreign shocks are greatly magnified in a liquidity trap does not hinge on our particular specification of the rule that home monetary policy follows after exiting the liquidity trap. If foreign GDP contracts 1 percent, the spillover effect to U.S. GDP remains in the range of 0.7 even under the assumption that monetary policy reacts very aggressively to inflation and/or the output gap.

When the zero bound is not binding, increasing the trade price elasticity of demand magnifies the decline of home real net exports caused by a foreign demand contraction. However, the spillover effects on home output are partly offset by a more vigorous reaction of domestic monetary policy. By contrast, in a liquidity trap, monetary policy is unable to compensate in such a manner, and the larger effects on real net exports translate into much greater effects on home output.

The magnitude of the spillover effects in our benchmark case depend on the nature of the foreign shocks. Foreign demand shocks exert larger effects on domestic exports and imports than foreign supply shocks, because their impact on the real exchange rate and foreign activity reinforce each other.⁴ For example, a negative taste shock abroad reduces foreign absorption, and causes the domestic exchange rate to appreciate. By contrast, near unit-root technology shocks, the typical source of fluctuations in open economy models, have comparatively small effects on domestic real net exports because they affect foreign activity and the real exchange rate in an offsetting manner.⁵ Thus, foreign demand shocks have larger effects on domestic output than foreign supply shocks even under normal conditions in which policy can react; but the disparity becomes much greater in a liquidity trap.

It might be expected that the spillover effects of foreign shocks would be further magnified if the foreign sector were also in a liquidity trap. However, our analysis shows that the effects of a given structural shock abroad are similar, irrespective of whether the foreign economy is in a liquidity trap or not. For example, although an adverse foreign demand shock causes foreign absorption to fall more when the foreign economy is in a liquidity trap, it also reduces the appreciation of the home real exchange rate since foreign long-term real interest rates fall by less. Analogously, the transmission of domestic shocks is hardly affected by whether the foreign economy is in a liquidity trap.

In related work, [Reifschneider and Williams 2000] argue that there is a significant increase in the volatility of output in a liquidity trap, but their methodology does not allow them to link this higher volatility to structural shocks. Other papers that are related to our analysis, but abstract from the open economy dimension, are [Eggertsson 2006] and [Christiano et al. 2009]. [Coenen and Wieland 2003] investigate the quantitative effects of exchange rate based policies in a model that is partly optimization-based but does not explore the spillover effects of foreign shocks and their dependence on different model parameters.⁶

2.  The Model

Apart from the explicit treatment of the zero-lower bound on policy rates, our two-country model is close to [Erceg et al. 2006] and [Erceg et al. 2008] who themselves build on [Christiano et al. 2005] and [Smets and Wouters 2003]. We focus on describing the home country as the setup for the foreign country is analogous. The calibration for the home country reflects key features of the United States.

2.1  Firms and Price Setting

Production of Domestic Intermediate Goods. There is a continuum of differentiated intermediate goods (indexed by $i\in[0,1]$) in the home country, each of which is produced by a single monopolistically competitive firm. Firms charge different prices at home and abroad, i.e., they practice pricing to market. In the home market, firm $i$ faces a demand function that varies inversely with its output price $P_{Dt}(i)$ and directly with aggregate demand at home $Y_{Dt}:$

$$Y_{Dt}(i) =\left[ \frac{P_{Dt}(i) }{P_{Dt}}\right] ^{\frac{-\left( 1+\theta_{p}\right) }{\theta_{p}}}Y_{Dt},$$ (1)

where $\theta_{p} > 0$, and $P_{Dt}$ is an aggregate price index defined below. Similarly, in the foreign market, firm $i$ faces the demand function:

$$X_{t}(i) =\left[ \frac{P^{*}_{Mt}(i)}{P^{*}_{Mt}}\right] ^{\frac{-\left( 1+\theta_{p}\right) }{\theta_{p}}}M^{*}_{t},$$ (2)

where $X_{t}(i)$ denotes the foreign quantity demanded of home good $i$, $P^{*}_{Mt}(i)$ denotes the price, denominated in foreign currency, that firm $i$ sets in the foreign market, $P^{*}_{Mt}$ is the foreign import price index, and $M^{*}_{t}$ is aggregate foreign imports.

Each producer utilizes capital services $K_{t}\left( i\right)$ and a labor index $L_{t}\left( i\right)$ (defined below) to produce its respective output good. The production function has a constant-elasticity of substitution form:

$$Y_{t}\left( i\right) =\left( \omega_{K}^{\frac{\rho}{1+\rho}}K_{t}(i)^{ \frac{1}{1+\rho}}+\omega_{L}{}^{\frac{\rho}{1+\rho}}(z_{t}L_{t}(i))^{ \frac {1}{1+\rho}}\right) ^{1+\rho},$$ (3)

where $z_{t}$ is a country-specific shock to the level of technology. Firms face perfectly competitive factor markets for hiring capital and labor.

The prices of intermediate goods are determined by Calvo-style staggered contracts, see [Calvo 1983]. Each period, a firm faces a constant probability, $1-\xi_{p}$, to reoptimize its price at home $P_{Dt}(i)$ and probability of $1-\xi_{px}$ to reoptimize the price that it sets in the foreign country of $P^{*}_{Mt}(i)$. These probabilities are independent across firms, time, and countries.

Production of the Domestic Output Index. A representative aggregator combines the differentiated intermediate products into a composite home-produced good $Y_{Dt}$ according to

$$Y_{Dt}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}Y_{Dt}\left( i\right) ^{\frac{1}{1+\theta_{p}} }di\right] ^{1+\theta_{p}}.$$ (4)

The optimal bundle of goods minimizes the cost of producing $Y_{Dt}$ taking the price of each intermediate good as given. A unit of the sectoral output index sells at the price $P_{Dt}$:

$$P_{Dt}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}P_{Dt}\left( i\right) ^{\frac{-1\,\,}{\theta _{p}\, }}di\right] ^{-\theta_{p}} .$$ (5)

Similarly, a representative aggregator in the foreign economy combines the differentiated home products $X_{t}(i)$ into a single index for foreign imports:

$$M^{*}_{t}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}X_{t}\left( i\right) ^{\frac{1}{1+\theta_{p}} }di \right] ^{1+\theta_{p}},$$ (6)

and sells $M^{*}_{t}$ at price $P^{*}_{Mt}$:

$$P^{*}_{Mt}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}P^{*}_{Mt}\left( i\right) ^{\frac {-1\,\,}{\theta_{p}\, }}di\right] ^{-\theta_{p}}.$$ (7)

Production of Consumption and Investment Goods. Assuming equal import content of consumption and investment, there is effectively one final good $A_{t}$ that is used for consumption or investment, (i.e., $A_{t} \equiv C_{t} + I_{t}$, allowing us to interpret $A_{t}$ as private absorption). Domestically-produced goods and imported goods are combined to produce final goods $A_{t}$ according to

$$A_{t}=\left( \omega_{A}^{\frac{\rho_{A}}{1+\rho_{A}}}A_{Dt}^{\frac{1}{ 1+\rho_{A}}}+(1-\omega_{A})^{\frac{\rho_{A}}{1+\rho_{A}}}M_{t}^{\frac {1}{1+\rho_{A}}}\right) ^{1+\rho_{A}},$$ (8)

where $A_{Dt}$ denotes the distributor's demand for the domestically-produced good and $M_{t}$ denotes the distributor's demand for imports. The quasi-share parameter $\omega_{A}$ determines the degree of home bias in private absorption, and $\rho_{A}$ determines the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods. Each representative distributor chooses a plan for $A_{Dt}$ and $M_{t}$ to minimize its costs of producing the final good $A_{t}$ and sells $A_{t}$ to households at a price $P_{t}$. Accordingly, the prices of consumption and investment are equalized.

2.2  Households and Wage Setting

A continuum of monopolistically competitive households (indexed on the unit interval) supplies a differentiated labor service to the intermediate goods-producing sector. A representative labor aggregator combines the households' labor hours in the same proportions as firms would choose. This labor index $L_{t}$ has the Dixit-Stiglitz form:

$$L_{t}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}N_{t}\left( h\right) ^{\frac{1}{1+\theta_{w}} }dh\right] ^{1+\theta_{w}},$$ (9)

where $\theta_{w}>0$ and $N_{t}(h)$ is hours worked by a typical member of household $h$. The aggregator minimizes the cost of producing a given amount of the aggregate labor index, taking each household's wage rate $W_{t}\left( h\right)$ as given. One unit of the labor index sells at the unit cost $W_{t}$:

$$W_{t}=\left[ \int_{0}^{1}W_{t}{}\left( h\right) ^{\frac{-1}{\theta_{w}} }dh\right] ^{-\theta_{w}}.$$ (10)

$W_{t}$ is referred to as the aggregate wage index. The aggregator's demand for the labor services of household $h$ satisfies

$$N_{t}\left( h\right) =\left[ \frac{W_{t}\left( h\right) }{W_{t}}\right] ^{-\frac{1+\theta_{w}}{\theta_{w}}}L_{t}.$$ (11)

The utility functional of a representative household $h$ is:

$$\widetilde{\mathbb{E}}_{t}\sum_{j=0}^{\infty}\beta^{j}\left\{ \frac {1}{1-\sigma}\left( C_{t+j}\left( h\right) -\varkappa\frac{C_{t+j-1}} {\zeta}-\nu_{ct}\right) ^{1-\sigma}\right.$$

$$\left. + \frac{\chi_{0}}{1-\chi}(1-N_{t+j}\left( h\right) )^{1-\chi }+V\left( \frac{MB_{t+j+1}\left( h\right) }{P_{t+j}}\right) \right\} ,$$ (12)

where the discount factor $\beta$ satisfies $\ 0<\beta<1.$ As in [Smets and Wouters 2003], we allow for the possibility of external habits. At date $t$ household $h$ cares about consumption relative to lagged per capita consumption, $C_{t-1}$. The preference shock $\nu_{ct}$ follows an exogenous first order process with a persistence parameter of $\rho_{\nu}$. The parameter $\zeta$ controls for population size. The household's period utility function depends on current leisure $1-N_{t}\left( h\right)$, the end-of-period real money balances, $\frac{MB_{t+1}\left( h\right) }{P_{t}}$. The liquidity-service function $V\left( \cdot\right)$ is increasing in real money balances at a decreasing rate up to a satiation level. Beyond the satiation level, utility from liquidity services is constant. With this specification of the utility function, the demand for real money balances is always positive regardless of the level of the nominal interest rate.⁷

The budget constraint of each household is given by:

$$\begin{array}[c]{c} P_{t}C_{t}\left( h\right) +P_{t}I_{t}\left( h\right) + MB_{t+1}\left( h\right) -MB_{t}(h) +\frac{e_{t}P_{Bt}^{\ast}B_{Ft+1}(h)}{\phi_{bt}} -e_{t}B_{Ft}(h)\\ \\ =W_{t}\left( h\right) N_{t}\left( h\right) +\Gamma_{t}\left( h\right) -T_{t}\left( h\right) +R_{Kt}(1-\tau_{Kt})K_{t}(h)-P_{Dt}\phi_{It}(h).\\ \end{array}$$ (13)

Final consumption and investment goods are purchased at a price $P_{t}.$ Investment in physical capital augments the per capita capital stock $K_{t+1}(h)$ according to a linear transition law of the form:

$$K_{t+1}\left( h\right) =(1-\delta)K_{t}(h)+I_{t}(h),$$ (14)

where $\delta$ is the depreciation rate of capital. The term $R_{Kt} (1-\tau_{Kt})K_{t}(h)$ in the budget constraint represents the proceeds to the household from renting capital to firms net of capital taxes.

Financial asset accumulation consists of increases in nominal money holdings $MB_{t+1}\left( h\right) -MB_{t}\left( h\right)$ and the net acquisition of international bonds. Trade in international assets is restricted to a non-state contingent nominal bond. $B_{Ft+1}(h)$ represents the quantity of the international bond purchased by household $h$ at time $t$ that pays one unit of foreign currency in the subsequent period. $P_{Bt} ^{\ast}$ is the foreign currency price of the bond, and $e_{t}$ is the nominal exchange rate expressed in units of home currency per unit of foreign currency. Following [Turnovsky 1985] households pay an intermediation fee $\phi_{bt}$.⁸ The intermediation fee depends on the ratio of economy-wide holdings of net foreign assets to nominal output according to:

$$\phi_{bt} = \exp\left( -\phi_{b} \left( \frac{e_{t} B_{Ft+1}}{P_{Dt} Y_{t} }\right) \right) .$$ (15)

If the home economy has an overall net lender position, a household will earn a lower return on any holdings of foreign bonds. By contrast, if the economy has a net debtor position, a household will pay a higher return on any foreign debt.

Households earn labor income, $W_{t}\left( h\right) N_{t}\left( h\right)$, lease capital to firms at the rental rate $R_{Kt}$, and receive an aliquot share $\Gamma_{t}\left( h\right)$ of the profits of all firms. Furthermore, they pay a lump-sum tax $T_{t}(h)$. We follow [Christiano et al. 2005] in assuming that households bear a cost of changing the level of gross investment from the previous period, so that the acceleration in the capital stock is penalized:

$$\phi_{It}(h) = \frac{1}{2}\phi_{I}\frac{\left( I_{t}(h)- I_{t-1}(h)\right) ^{2}}{ I_{t-1}(h)}.$$ (16)

Households maximizes the utility functional (29) with respect to consumption, investment, (end-of-period) capital stock, money balances, and holdings of foreign bonds, subject to the labor demand function (11), budget constraint (13), and transition equation for capital (14). They also set nominal wages in staggered contracts that are analogous to the price contracts described above. In particular, each member of a household is allowed to re-optimize its wage contract with probability $1-\xi_{w}$.

2.3  Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Monetary policy follows an interest rate reaction function as suggested by [Taylor 1993]. However, when policy rates reach zero, we assume that no further actions are taken by the central bank. The notional rate that is dictated by the interest rate reaction function is denoted by $i_{t}^{not}$, whereas the actual policy rate that is implemented is denoted by $i_{t}$. The two differ only if the notional rate turns negative:

$$i_{t}^{not}= \bar{i} + \gamma_{i} (i_{t-1}^{not} - \bar{i}) +(1-\gamma _{i})(\pi_{t} + \gamma_{\pi}(\pi_{t}-\bar{\pi})+\frac{\gamma_{y}}{4} y_{t}^{gap}),$$ (17)

and the actual (short-term) policy interest rate satisfies

$$i_{t} = max(0,i_{t}^{not}).$$ (18)

The terms $\bar{i}$ and $\bar{\pi}$ are the steady-state values for the nominal interest rate and inflation, respectively. The inflation rate $\pi_{t}$ is expressed as the logarithmic percentage change of the domestic price level, $\pi_{t} = log(P_{Dt}/P_{Dt-1})$. The term $y_{t}^{gap}$ denotes the output gap, given by the log difference between actual and potential output, where the latter is the level of output that would prevail in the absence of nominal rigidities. Notice that the coefficient $\gamma_{y}$ is divided by four as the rule is expressed in terms of quarterly inflation and interest rates. The parameter $\gamma_{i}$ allows for interest rate smoothing. ⁹

Government purchases are a constant fraction of output $\bar{g}$ and they fall exclusively on the domestically-produced good. These purchases make no direct contribution to household utility. To finance its purchases, the government imposes a lump-sum tax on households that is adjusted so that the government's budget is balanced every period.

2.4  Resource Constraints

The home economy's aggregate resource constraint satisfies:

$$Y_{Dt} = C_{Dt}+I_{Dt}+G_{t}+\phi_{It}.$$ (19)

The composite domestically-produced good $Y_{Dt}$, net of investment adjustment costs $\phi_{It}$, is used to produce final consumption and investment goods ( $A_{Dt} = C_{Dt} + I_{Dt}$), or directly to satisfy government demand. Moreover, since each individual intermediate goods producer can sell its output either at home or abroad, there are also a continuum of resource constraints that apply at the firm level.

2.5  Calibration of Parameters

The model is calibrated at a quarterly frequency. The values of key parameters are presented in Table 1 and reflect fairly standard calibration choices for the U.S. economy. We choose $\omega_{A} = 0.15$ to be consistent with an import share of output of 15%. The domestic and foreign population levels, respectively $\zeta$ and $\zeta^{*}$, are set so that the home country constitutes 25 percent of world output. Balanced trade in steady state implies an import (or export) share of output of the foreign country of 5 percent. Because the foreign country is assumed to be identical to the home country except in its size, $\omega _{A}^{*} = 0.05$. We set $\rho_{A}=10$, so that the price elasticity of import demand is 1.1.

Nominal rigidities in prices and wages have an average duration of four quarters, determined by the parameters $\xi_{p}=0.75$ and $\xi _{w}=0.75$. Export price rigidities have a shorter duration of 2 quarters, as implied by the parameter $\xi_{px}=0.5$. As noted above, monetary policy follows the Taylor rule, aside from allowing for interest rate smoothing and taking account of the zero lower bound constraint. Thus, the parameter $\gamma_{\pi}$ on the inflation gap is 0.5 and the parameter $\gamma_{y}$ on the output gap is also 0.5; we set the smoothing parameter $\gamma_{i}$ to 0.7. The steady state real interest rate is set to 2% per year ( $\beta= 0.995$). Given steady state inflation $\bar{\pi}$ equal to zero, the implied steady state nominal interest rate is two percent. The values of remaining parameters are also fairly standard in the literature, and are summarized in Table 1.

3  Solution Method

All equilibrium conditions except the non-linear policy rule are linearized around the model's non-stochastic steady state. We solve the model using a shooting algorithm first proposed by [Laffargue 1990] and extended by [Boucekkine 1995] and [Juillard 1996], which in turn builds on the algorithm by [Fair and Taylor 1983]. This algorithm stacks all equations through time, which is equivalent to collapsing the Type I and II iterations in the Fair-Taylor shooting algorithm into one step. The size of the first-derivative used to implement a Newton-type recursion is kept manageable by exploiting the sparsity of the stacked system. The end point of the shooting algorithm imposes that the economy will eventually exit from the liquidity trap. ¹⁰

The solution from our algorithm is numerically equivalent to that obtained following the method described by [Eggertsson and Woodford 2003] and [Jung et al. 2005]. The solution proposed by these authors recognizes that the model is piecewise-linear. All model equations are linear when the zero bound constraint binds, and they are also linear, albeit modified, when the zero bound constraint does not bind. However, the time period for which the economy is at the zero bound is a non-linear function of the exogenous disturbances.¹¹

Relative to [Eggertsson and Woodford 2003] and [Jung et al. 2005], our method deals easily with shocks whose effects build up over time and only eventually lead to zero short-term interest rates. Moreover, our algorithm extends naturally to deal with the case when both countries are constrained by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.

4  Initial Baseline Path

Our principal goal is to compare the impact of foreign shocks on the home country when it faces a liquidity trap with the effects that occur when policy rates can be freely adjusted. In the former case, the impact of a foreign shock depends on the economic conditions that precipitated the liquidity trap. Intuitively, the effects of an adverse foreign shock against the backdrop of a recession-induced liquidity trap in the home country should depend on the expected severity of the recession, and the perceived duration of the liquidity trap. In a shallow recession in which interest rates are only constrained for a short period, the effects of the foreign shock would not differ substantially from the usual case in which rates could be cut immediately.¹² By contrast, the effects of the foreign shock on the home country might be amplified substantially if it occurred against the backdrop of a steep recession in which policy rates were expected to be constrained from falling for a protracted period.

We use the term "initial baseline path" to describe the evolution of the economy that would prevail in the absence of the foreign shock. Given agents' full knowledge of the model, the initial baseline path depends on the underlying shocks that push the economy into a liquidity trap, including their magnitude and persistence, as these features play an important role in determining agents' perceptions about the duration of the liquidity trap.

Our analysis focuses on the effects of foreign shocks against the backdrop of an initial baseline path that is intended to capture a severe recession in the home country. This "severe recession" baseline is depicted in Figure 1 by the solid lines. It is generated by a preference shock $\nu_{ct}$ that follows an autoregressive process with persistence parameter equal to 0.75. The shock reduces the home country's marginal utility of consumption. As the shock occurs exclusively in the home country, the foreign economy has latitude to offset much of the contractionary impact of the shock by reducing its policy rate.¹³

As shown in Figure 1 policy rates immediately fall to 0 (2 percentage points below their steady state value at annualized rates) and remain frozen at this level for ten quarters.¹⁴ Given that the shock drives inflation persistently below its steady state value and that nominal interest rates are constrained from falling by the zero bound, real rates increase substantially in the near term. This increase in real interest rates accounts in part for the substantial output decline, which peaks in magnitude at about 9 percent below its steady state value. Real interest rates decline in the longer term, helping the economy recover.¹⁵ This longer term decline also causes the home currency to depreciate in real terms, and the ensuing expansion of real net exports mitigates the effects of the shock on domestic output. However, the improvement in real net exports is delayed due to the zero bound constraint, since higher real interest rates limit the size of the depreciation of the home currency in the near-term.

For purposes of comparison, the figure also shows the effects of the same shocks in the case in which the home country's policy rates can be adjusted, i.e., ignoring the zero bound constraint. In this linear simulation, the home nominal interest rate falls more sharply, turns negative, and induces a decline in real interest rates in the short term. Hence, the fall in home output is smaller than in the benchmark framework in which the zero bound constraint is binding. The home output contraction is also mitigated by a more substantial improvement in real net exports. Given that real interest rates fall very quickly, the real depreciation is considerably larger and more front-loaded, contributing to a more rapid improvement in real net exports.

5  International Transmission at the Zero Bound

We turn to assessing the impact of a negative foreign consumption preference shock $\nu^{*}_{ct}$ when the home country faces a liquidity trap. The foreign shock is scaled to induce a 1 percent reduction in foreign output relative to the initial baseline when it occurs against the backdrop of the severe recession scenario in Figure 1. The size of the foreign shock is small enough that the duration of the liquidity trap in the home country remains at ten quarters.

Figure 2 shows the effects of the foreign shock abroad, while Figure 3 reports the effects on the home country. The solid lines show the responses when the zero bound constraint is imposed on home policy rates, while the dashed lines report the responses to the same shock when the zero lower bound is ignored. To be specific, the responses in Figures 2 and 3 are derived from a simulation that adds both the adverse domestic taste shock from Figure 1 and the foreign taste shock, and then subtracts the impulse response functions associated with the domestic taste shock alone.¹⁶ Thus, all variables are measured as deviations from the baseline path shown in Figure 1.

As shown in Figure 2 the preference shock leads to a contraction in foreign output. Foreign policy rates are cut. As real rates also drop, investment is stimulated. Lower real rates contribute to a real exchange rate depreciation that boosts foreign exports. Perhaps surprisingly, whether the home country is at the zero lower bound or not has minimal implications for the foreign responses. This reflects that there are offsetting effects on the exports of the foreign country that arise from the responses of home activity and relative prices, as more fully discussed below.

By contrast, the effects of the foreign demand shock on the home country, shown in Figure 3, are strikingly different whether the zero lower bound is imposed or not. Although the foreign shock has nearly the same effect on foreign output across the two cases, the effects on home output are more than twice as large when the zero bound constraint is imposed.¹⁷ In either case home real net exports contract because foreign absorption falls and the home real exchange rate appreciates. However, in a liquidity trap, the decline in home export demand causes a fall in the marginal cost of production and inflation that is not accompanied by lower policy rates. The zero bound constraint keeps nominal rates from declining for ten quarters. Real rates rise sharply in the short run, even though they fall at longer horizons. Consequently, domestic absorption does not expand as much as when policy rates can be cut immediately. If the initial recession were more pronounced, private absorption could even fall, as shown below. With net exports falling and with domestic absorption not filling the gap, output falls by nearly as much in the home country as abroad.¹⁸

5.1  Alternative Initial Conditions and Monetary Policy

The analysis so far has been based on one particular choice of the size of the underlying baseline shock and the size of the additional foreign shock. Sensitivity to these values and to alternative monetary policy rules is examined below.

Alternative Initial Baseline Paths

In Figure 4, we change the assumptions concerning the initial domestic recession by increasing its persistence. The underlying initial domestic preference shock $\nu_{ct}$ is now assumed to follow an autoregressive process of order one with persistence parameter equal to 0.9 instead of 0.75. With this prolonged recession, the liquidity trap is initially expected to last 16 quarters, instead of the 10 quarters considered previously. The figure compares the effects of the same additional foreign consumption shock with the liquidity trap lasting 10 quarters and with the trap lasting 16 quarters. When the duration of the liquidity trap is extended, the rise in short-term real interest rate at home is so large as to generate a initial drop in absorption, thus widening the fall in home output. The analysis that follows traces more systematically how the duration of the liquidity trap affects the spillover of foreign shocks.

In Figure 5, we consider the impact of the same foreign consumption shock $\nu^{*}_{ct}$ under different initial baseline paths and policy rules. For each baseline path, we choose the size of the domestic shock to ensure that the zero lower bound will bind for the number of quarters in the figure's abscissae. We calculate the spillover effects of the foreign shock $\nu^{*}_{ct}$ as the ratio of the shock's effects on home GDP (expressed in deviation from the baseline path) to the effects on foreign GDP (also expressed in deviation from the baseline path). The figure's ordinates show an average of these spillover effects for the first four quarters.

Focusing first on the results for the benchmark Taylor rule, the same rule used for Figures 1 to 3, the spillover effects become larger as the number of periods spent at the zero lower bound increases. Intuitively, the longer the policy rates are constrained from adjusting, the higher is the increase in the home real interest rates stemming from the contractionary foreign demand shock. As real interest rates rise more, they progressively hinder domestic absorption from cushioning the contraction in home GDP that is caused by the fall in net exports. When policy rates in the home economy are expected to be constrained for longer than two years, the spillover effects from a small foreign consumption shock more than double relative to the unconstrained case.

The figure also shows the same measure of spillover effects under alternative interest rate rules. Both rules leave the basic form of reaction function described in Equation (17) unchanged. However, the rule that is labeled "more aggressive on inflation" doubles the elasticity with respect to inflation $\gamma_{\pi}$ from 1.5 to 3, while the rule that is labeled "more aggressive on output gap" uses an elasticity with respect to the output gap $\gamma_{y}$ equal to 4 instead of 0.5. When the baseline conditions lead to a higher number of periods spent at the zero lower bound, both alternative rules imply a substantial increase in the spillover effects of the foreign consumption shock, confirming that our results do not hinge on the specific weights in the policy rule.

Alternative Foreign Consumption Shocks

The spillover effects shown in Figure 5 abstract from non-linear dynamics that are associated with changes in the number of periods for which the zero lower bound is expected to bind. As long as the foreign consumption shock does not affect the duration of the liquidity trap, the effects of the shock are linear in the size of its innovation. However, there is a size of the innovation above which the duration of the liquidity trap is extended, thus decoupling the marginal and average effects of shocks. Furthermore, the duration of the liquidity trap is a nonlinear function of the size of the innovations.¹⁹

These properties are illustrated in Figure 6 using the same baseline path as in Figure 1. Figure 6shows the effects of progressively larger foreign shocks on the duration of the liquidity trap (upper panel), as well as the spillover effect to the home country. The magnitude of the foreign shock is measured by the change in foreign GDP relative to the baseline path (on average over the first four quarters).

We first consider the case of the benchmark Taylor rule (the solid lines). If the foreign shock is sufficiently small, the number of periods at the zero lower bound does not change relative to the initial baseline and remains at 10 quarters, as reported in the upper panel. Then, the spillover effect shown in the lower panel of Figure 6 is roughly 3/4, the same magnitude as in Figure 5 when the trap lasts 10 quarters. The spillover effects are linear in the size of the shock and remain 3/4 as long as the additional shock does not vary the duration of the liquidity trap. Hence, within that range, the marginal and average effects of the foreign shock coincide.

Once the magnitude of the foreign shocks is sufficiently large, the shocks can affect the duration of the liquidity trap, as shown in the top panel. As negative foreign shocks prolong the time spent at the zero lower bound, the spillover effects become larger. Conversely, larger and larger expansionary shocks abroad can shorten the time for which the zero lower bound constraint binds at home, and thus reduce the spillover effects. However, even shocks that are sufficiently large to push the economy out of the liquidity trap cause spillovers that are elevated relative to the case when the zero bound does not bind initially (the latter case is shown in the bottom right panel).²⁰ The reason is that the average effect of the shock differs from the shock's marginal effect. The latter falls below the former and the two will only coincide again asymptotically.

We now turn to comparing the effects of the foreign shocks under alternative monetary policy rules. For the given initial baseline shock, the rules that are more aggressive on inflation or the output gap tend to increase the duration of the liquidity trap although they dampen the contraction of the economy. Intuitively, more aggressive rules call for a more sustained fall in the interest rate in reaction to a deflationary shock, and may extend the number of periods spent at the zero lower bound. For the specific rules chosen, the benchmark Taylor rule delivers larger marginal spillover effects when the foreign shock is too small to affect the number of periods spent at the zero lower bound, as shown in the bottom panel.

The top panel of Figure 6 also shows that different rules imply different threshold sizes for shocks to influence the duration of the liquidity trap. The rule that is more aggressive on inflation requires larger foreign expansionary shocks to reduce the home economy's time spent at the zero lower bound.

5.2  Alternative Trade Elasticities

The value of the import price elasticity of demand is an important determinant of the duration of a liquidity trap and the spillover effects of country-specific shocks. When the zero bound is not binding, increasing the trade price elasticity of demand magnifies the decline of home real net exports caused by a foreign demand contraction. The spillover effects on home output are partly offset by a more vigorous reaction of domestic monetary policy. However, in a liquidity trap, monetary policy is unable to compensate in such a manner, and the larger effects on real net exports translate into greater effects on home output.

Figure 7 shows how the spillover effects of a foreign consumption shock are affected by a higher elasticity, equal to 1.5 versus 1.1 in our original calibration, or a lower elasticity, equal to 0.75. Away from the zero lower bound, the linearization of the model ensures that spillover effects are unrelated to the size of shocks. The figure's bottom right panel, shows that when the policy rule is unconstrained, a higher elasticity increases the spillover effects. The higher elasticity reduces the responsiveness of exchange rates to country-specific shocks. However, the increased sensitivity to movements in relative import prices more than offsets the decreased volatility of exchange rates. Accordingly, with the higher elasticity, home country net exports drop by more in response to a contractionary foreign consumption shock, leading to a larger fall in home GDP.

The figure's bottom left and top panels consider instead how the spillover effects are influenced by the size of the foreign shock against the backdrop of the same domestic recession considered above. The top panel of Figure 7 shows that the higher the trade elasticity the smaller is the size of foreign shocks that can lift the home economy out of the liquidity trap. The lower panel confirms that the zero lower bound constraint magnifies the spillover effects regardless of the elasticity chosen. However, the higher the trade price elasticity of demand, the more pronounced is the magnification.

5.3  A Foreign Technology Shock

Near unit-root technology shocks are the typical source of fluctuations in open economy models. However, the spillover effects of country-specific technology shocks are quite small and remain so even in a liquidity trap. The basic reason is that lower foreign activity retards the demand for home exports, but this effect is counterbalanced by a depreciation of the home real exchange rate, which boosts home exports. Under our benchmark calibration, the exchange rate channel initially dominates, implying a rise in home real net exports, and a small and short-lived expansion in home GDP; the effects when the home country is constrained by the zero lower bound aren't noticeably different.

It is possible for a negative foreign technology shock to induce a contraction of home GDP if domestic and foreign absorption respond more quickly to the foreign shock. This is illustrated in Figure 8, which shows the effects of a foreign technology shock $z_{t}^{*}$ under a model calibration which eliminates consumption habits and investment adjustment costs.²¹ In the absence of these real rigidities, foreign absorption falls more quickly, inducing home real exports to contract rapidly. If interest rates can't fall immediately to counteract the export contraction - as in the liquidity trap case - then home output declines; nevertheless, the fall in home GDP is only a tiny fraction of that abroad.

5.4  Both Countries in a Liquidity Trap

We showed that when one country is in a liquidity trap, the spillover effects of foreign shocks are greatly amplified. We next consider whether or not these spillover effects reverberate back and forth when both countries are mired a liquidity trap, further exacerbating the domestic spillovers of a foreign shock.

Figure 9 illustrates the effects of a foreign consumption preference shock under three distinct initial baseline paths: both countries are at the zero bound for 10 quarters (the dotted line), only the home country is at the zero bound for 10 quarters (the solid line), and no country is at the zero bound (the dashed line). In each case, the baseline paths were constructed using different domestic consumption shocks.

The size of the foreign consumption shock is unchanged across the three scenarios and is set to induce a 1% decline of foreign GDP if neither country is at the zero bound. Unsurprisingly, the effects of the foreign consumption shock on foreign GDP are greatly amplified if the foreign country is constrained by the zero bound. The maximum decline of foreign GDP is about 3.5% relative to baseline if the zero bound binds (dotted line) but only 1 if the policy rate is unconstrained.

However, the the spillover effects on the home country of the foreign shock are little changed irrespective of whether the foreign economy is in a liquidity trap, so the dotted and solid lines almost overlap. Although an adverse foreign demand shock causes foreign absorption to fall more when the foreign economy is in a liquidity trap, it also reduces the appreciation of the home real exchange rate since foreign long-term real interest rates fall by less. As the relative price movement offsets the movement in foreign activity, home exports and GDP are little varied.

The apparent irrelevance of the foreign zero lower bound for the spillover effects on the home country is predicated on the particular calibration of the trade price elasticity. With a lower trade elasticity, the activity channel dominates the relative price channel. With real net exports responding more vigorously, spillover effects on home GDP are larger when the foreign economy is at the zero lower bound, as illustrated in Figure 10. Each line in the figure is constructed by subtracting the impulse responses to a foreign consumption shock in the case when both countries are at the zero bound from those which obtain when only the home country is at the zero bound. This difference captures the reverberation effects on the home country that are associated with the liquidity trap in the foreign country.²²

Figure 10 considers two cases: the benchmark elasticity equal to 1.1 (the solid lines), and a case in which the elasticity is equal to 0.5. When the foreign economy is also at the zero lower bound, lower foreign activity causes a bigger contraction in home exports, which exacerbates the contraction in home GDP relative to the case when only the home economy is at the zero lower bound.²³

6  Conclusions

When monetary policy is unconstrained, it can cushion the impact of foreign disturbances. By contrast, in a liquidity trap, monetary policy cannot crowd in domestic demand as effectively, and the spillover effects of foreign shocks can be magnified greatly. The amplification of idiosyncratic foreign shocks depends both on the duration of the liquidity trap and the size of the foreign shock, as well as on key structural features such as the trade price elasticity.

Our model results allay fears that a global liquidity trap is likely to worsen the spillover effects of a given-size country-specific shock, relative to the case in which the trap is limited to one region. Although demand shocks abroad cause foreign activity to fall more sharply when the foreign economy is also in a liquidity trap, the home real exchange rate appreciates less, so that home exports are roughly unaffected. Hence, the spillover effects on the home GDP are very similar to those when only the home country is in a liquidity trap.

Our analysis suggests that the benefits of policy coordination across countries are enhanced in a liquidity trap. In fact, although coordinated policy actions by major central banks are rare when policy rates are unconstrained, coordination has become frequent since 2008, when many economies became constrained by the zero lower bound. In future research, it will be useful to quantify the benefits from such coordination.

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Table 1. Calibration*

Parameter	Determines:
$\beta= 0.995$	s.s. real interest rate = 2% per year
$\chi_{0}$	leisure's share of time = 1/2
$\sigma= 2$	intertemporal substitution elast. 1/2
$\rho= -2$	capital-labor substitution elast. = 1/2
$\omega_{A} = 0.15$	import share of output = 15%
$\zeta= 1$	population size
$\kappa= 0.8$	consumption habits
$\theta_{w} = 0.1$	wage markup = 10%
$\xi_{p} = 0.75$	price contract expected duration = 4 quarters
$\xi_{px} = 0.5$	export price contract expected duration = 2 quarters
$\gamma_{i} = 0.7$	monetary policy's weight on lagged interest rate
$\gamma_{y} = 0.5$	monetary policy's weight on output gap
$\delta= 0.025$	depreciation rate = 10% per year
$\chi= 10$	labor supply elasticity = 1/5
$\phi_{b} = 0.001$	interest elasticity of foreign assets
$\rho_{A} = 10$	long-run import price elasticity = 1.1
$\omega_{A}^{*} = 0.05$	foreign import share of output = 5%
$\zeta^{*} = 3$	foreign population size
$\phi_{I} = 3$	investment adjustment costs
$\theta_{p} = 0.1$	domestic/export price markup = 10%
$\xi_{w} = 0.75$	wage contract expected duration = 4 quarters
$\tau_{k} = 0$	capital tax rate
$\gamma_{\pi} = 0.5$	monetary policy's weight on inflation

$^{*}$ Parameter values for the foreign country are chosen identical to their home country counterparts except for the population size $\zeta^{*}$ and the import share $\omega_{A}^{*}$.

Figure 1. Severe Domestic Recession Scenario (Initial Baseline Path)

Data for Figure 1 (Solid Line)

Period	Home Absorption	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Real Interest Rate	Home GDP	Real Exchange Rate
1	-7.2502	0	-5.6052	6.4589	-5.5356	3.2986
2	-10.7453	0	-4.4488	4.9016	-8.0483	4.389
3	-11.8235	0	-2.8916	3.3756	-8.6796	5.1375
4	-11.443	0	-1.3655	2.0863	-8.2177	5.5329
5	-10.269	0	-0.0762	1.1033	-7.1935	5.6186
6	-8.7465	0	0.9067	0.4204	-5.9519	5.4587
7	-7.1589	0	1.5897	-0.0068	-4.706	5.1198
8	-5.674	0	2.0168	-0.2366	-3.5765	4.662
9	-4.379	0	2.2467	-0.328	-2.6216	4.1336
10	-3.307	0	2.338	-0.3328	-1.8577	3.5706
11	-2.4553	0.2001	2.3428	-0.0922	-1.2741	2.9968
12	-1.796	0.6586	2.3023	0.4243	-0.8384	2.4764
13	-1.2893	0.9846	2.2443	0.8109	-0.5104	2.0807
14	-0.9027	1.2093	2.1837	1.0913	-0.2635	1.7797
15	-0.6099	1.3597	2.128	1.2894	-0.0788	1.5485
16	-0.3904	1.4579	2.0804	1.4262	0.0575	1.3679
17	-0.2276	1.5203	2.0418	1.5185	0.1555	1.2232
18	-0.1088	1.5594	2.0119	1.5795	0.2235	1.1035
19	-0.0237	1.5839	1.99	1.619	0.2679	1.0012
20	0.0356	1.5996	1.9749	1.6443	0.2937	0.9106
21	0.0754	1.6108	1.9654	1.6603	0.3052	0.828
22	0.1006	1.62	1.9606	1.6706	0.3057	0.7506
23	0.1151	1.6287	1.9594	1.6777	0.298	0.6768
24	0.1219	1.638	1.961	1.6833	0.2843	0.6056
25	0.1233	1.6483	1.9648	1.6883	0.2665	0.5363
26	0.1212	1.6597	1.97	1.6934	0.246	0.4686
27	0.1169	1.6722	1.9763	1.6991	0.2239	0.4023
28	0.1113	1.6858	1.9832	1.7054	0.2012	0.3375
29	0.1054	1.7001	1.9904	1.7125	0.1784	0.2743
30	0.0996	1.7151	1.9976	1.7204	0.1562	0.2128
31	0.0943	1.7304	2.0047	1.729	0.1349	0.1531
32	0.0897	1.7459	2.0115	1.7381	0.1147	0.0954
33	0.0861	1.7614	2.0178	1.7478	0.0958	0.0397
34	0.0834	1.7768	2.0237	1.7578	0.0784	-0.0138
35	0.0817	1.7919	2.029	1.7681	0.0624	-0.065
36	0.0809	1.8065	2.0338	1.7786	0.048	-0.1139
37	0.0811	1.8207	2.0379	1.7892	0.0349	-0.1604
38	0.0821	1.8342	2.0415	1.7997	0.0233	-0.2046
39	0.0839	1.8472	2.0445	1.8102	0.013	-0.2464
40	0.0863	1.8594	2.047	1.8205	0.0039	-0.2858

Data for Figure 1 (Dashed Line)

Period	Home Absorption	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Real Interest Rate	Home GDP	Real Exchange Rate
1	-5.6136	-0.9108	-3.2884	3.6714	-3.5767	8.904
2	-8.1161	-2.6112	-2.5721	1.0293	-5.0738	9.3014
3	-8.7465	-3.3706	-1.6304	-0.6341	-5.3457	9.0921
4	-8.3311	-3.4625	-0.7264	-1.4808	-4.9575	8.4956
5	-7.3996	-3.1359	0.0284	-1.7322	-4.2637	7.6962
6	-6.2762	-2.5892	0.6063	-1.5998	-3.4751	6.8289
7	-5.1476	-1.9635	1.0206	-1.2544	-2.7084	5.9822
8	-4.1123	-1.3484	1.301	-0.8188	-2.0213	5.2066
9	-3.2135	-0.7942	1.4805	-0.3728	-1.4363	4.5255
10	-2.4627	-0.3227	1.5887	0.0377	-0.9564	3.9442
11	-1.8533	0.0622	1.6497	0.3907	-0.5744	3.457
12	-1.3702	0.3667	1.6815	0.6797	-0.2784	3.0527
13	-0.9951	0.6022	1.697	0.9074	-0.0555	2.718
14	-0.7096	0.7817	1.7048	1.0813	0.107	2.4397
15	-0.4966	0.9174	1.7104	1.2105	0.2206	2.2056
16	-0.3412	1.0203	1.7169	1.3045	0.295	2.0054
17	-0.2307	1.0994	1.7259	1.3715	0.3388	1.8309
18	-0.1545	1.1618	1.7379	1.4188	0.3589	1.6752
19	-0.1043	1.2128	1.753	1.4521	0.3611	1.5334
20	-0.0732	1.2565	1.7707	1.476	0.35	1.4018
21	-0.0558	1.2955	1.7905	1.4938	0.3295	1.2778
22	-0.0478	1.3318	1.8118	1.508	0.3025	1.1595
23	-0.0462	1.3666	1.8339	1.5203	0.2715	1.0458
24	-0.0484	1.4005	1.8564	1.5319	0.2383	0.9361
25	-0.0525	1.4339	1.8786	1.5436	0.2044	0.8299
26	-0.0574	1.467	1.9004	1.5558	0.1708	0.7271
27	-0.0619	1.4997	1.9212	1.5688	0.1384	0.6277
28	-0.0656	1.532	1.941	1.5826	0.1078	0.5317
29	-0.0679	1.5637	1.9595	1.5972	0.0793	0.4393
30	-0.0686	1.5947	1.9766	1.6125	0.0532	0.3506
31	-0.0677	1.6247	1.9922	1.6284	0.0296	0.2657
32	-0.0651	1.6537	2.0064	1.6448	0.0085	0.1847
33	-0.061	1.6816	2.019	1.6614	-0.01	0.1076
34	-0.0554	1.7081	2.0302	1.6782	-0.0262	0.0346
35	-0.0485	1.7334	2.04	1.695	-0.0401	-0.0345
36	-0.0404	1.7572	2.0484	1.7117	-0.0518	-0.0995
37	-0.0313	1.7796	2.0555	1.7281	-0.0615	-0.1606
38	-0.0215	1.8005	2.0615	1.7443	-0.0695	-0.2178
39	-0.011	1.8201	2.0663	1.76	-0.0758	-0.2713
40	-0.0001	1.8382	2.0701	1.7752	-0.0806	-0.3212

Figure 2. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against Backdrop of Domestic Recession

Data for Figure 2 (Solid Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Foreign Consumption	Foreign Inflation	Foreign Investment	Foreign Exports
1	-0.5465	-0.6775	-1.5778	-1.3234	1.2081	2.0773
2	-0.8459	-1.082	-2.6296	-1.2377	2.3168	3.1869
3	-0.9736	-1.3104	-3.2916	-1.1148	3.2619	3.7433
4	-0.9896	-1.4162	-3.6674	-0.987	4.0122	3.9793
5	-0.9384	-1.4389	-3.8352	-0.871	4.5614	4.029
6	-0.8507	-1.4087	-3.8538	-0.7731	4.9202	3.9714
7	-0.7465	-1.3485	-3.7672	-0.6941	5.1091	3.8534
8	-0.6386	-1.2742	-3.6082	-0.6319	5.1538	3.7034
9	-0.5343	-1.1962	-3.4012	-0.5833	5.0805	3.5378
10	-0.4377	-1.1209	-3.1645	-0.545	4.9148	3.3671
11	-0.3504	-1.0512	-2.9116	-0.514	4.6793	3.1982
12	-0.273	-0.9885	-2.6524	-0.488	4.3938	3.0364
13	-0.2058	-0.9327	-2.3942	-0.4653	4.0749	2.878
14	-0.1483	-0.8833	-2.1424	-0.4446	3.7363	2.7229
15	-0.0997	-0.8394	-1.9005	-0.4251	3.3888	2.5717
16	-0.0592	-0.7999	-1.6711	-0.406	3.0408	2.425
17	-0.0259	-0.764	-1.4558	-0.3871	2.699	2.2832
18	0.001	-0.7309	-1.2555	-0.3683	2.3681	2.1465
19	0.0223	-0.6999	-1.0706	-0.3494	2.0518	2.0148
20	0.0386	-0.6705	-0.9011	-0.3305	1.7525	1.8878
21	0.0508	-0.6423	-0.7467	-0.3116	1.4718	1.7654
22	0.0593	-0.6151	-0.6068	-0.2929	1.2107	1.6474
23	0.0648	-0.5887	-0.4808	-0.2744	0.9697	1.5335
24	0.0677	-0.563	-0.368	-0.2562	0.7487	1.4236
25	0.0685	-0.5378	-0.2674	-0.2383	0.5475	1.3175
26	0.0676	-0.5132	-0.1782	-0.221	0.3655	1.2151
27	0.0653	-0.4892	-0.0996	-0.2041	0.202	1.1164
28	0.062	-0.4657	-0.0307	-0.1878	0.0562	1.0214
29	0.058	-0.4427	0.0293	-0.1722	-0.0729	0.9298
30	0.0533	-0.4203	0.0812	-0.1572	-0.1863	0.8419
31	0.0484	-0.3985	0.1258	-0.1429	-0.2851	0.7574
32	0.0432	-0.3774	0.1637	-0.1293	-0.3702	0.6765
33	0.038	-0.3569	0.1957	-0.1164	-0.4428	0.599
34	0.0329	-0.337	0.2223	-0.1043	-0.5038	0.525
35	0.0279	-0.3178	0.2442	-0.0929	-0.5542	0.4544
36	0.0231	-0.2993	0.2618	-0.0822	-0.5951	0.3872
37	0.0186	-0.2816	0.2756	-0.0722	-0.6273	0.3234
38	0.0144	-0.2645	0.2862	-0.0629	-0.6517	0.2628
39	0.0106	-0.2482	0.2938	-0.0543	-0.669	0.2054
40	0.007	-0.2326	0.2989	-0.0463	-0.6802	0.1511

Data for Figure 2 (Dashed Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Foreign Consumption	Foreign Inflation	Foreign Investment	Foreign Exports
1	-0.5561	-0.6807	-1.5764	-1.3273	1.2143	1.9809
2	-0.8539	-1.086	-2.6271	-1.239	2.3273	3.1197
3	-0.9769	-1.3134	-3.2883	-1.1141	3.2742	3.7391
4	-0.9888	-1.4175	-3.6637	-0.9855	4.0245	4.0318
5	-0.9349	-1.4386	-3.8315	-0.8695	4.5729	4.1178
6	-0.8458	-1.4075	-3.8501	-0.7723	4.9307	4.0745
7	-0.7414	-1.3469	-3.7636	-0.6942	5.1191	3.9529
8	-0.6338	-1.2727	-3.6046	-0.6329	5.1638	3.7869
9	-0.53	-1.1954	-3.3976	-0.585	5.0914	3.5984
10	-0.4339	-1.1207	-3.1608	-0.5473	4.927	3.4017
11	-0.3472	-1.0519	-2.9076	-0.5167	4.6933	3.2055
12	-0.2706	-0.9899	-2.6482	-0.491	4.4098	3.0149
13	-0.2039	-0.9348	-2.3898	-0.4685	4.0928	2.8326
14	-0.1466	-0.886	-2.1377	-0.4478	3.7558	2.6595
15	-0.098	-0.8424	-1.8957	-0.4282	3.4095	2.4958
16	-0.0574	-0.8032	-1.6661	-0.4091	3.0623	2.3413
17	-0.0239	-0.7674	-1.4507	-0.3903	2.7207	2.1951
18	0.0031	-0.7344	-1.2504	-0.3714	2.3897	2.0566
19	0.0245	-0.7034	-1.0655	-0.3525	2.0728	1.925
20	0.041	-0.6741	-0.896	-0.3337	1.7726	1.7997
21	0.0531	-0.6459	-0.7416	-0.3149	1.4908	1.6799
22	0.0617	-0.6188	-0.6018	-0.2961	1.2285	1.5653
23	0.0671	-0.5924	-0.4759	-0.2776	0.986	1.4554
24	0.07	-0.5667	-0.3632	-0.2594	0.7636	1.3499
25	0.0707	-0.5415	-0.2627	-0.2416	0.5608	1.2484
26	0.0696	-0.5169	-0.1736	-0.2241	0.3773	1.1508
27	0.0673	-0.4929	-0.0952	-0.2072	0.2123	1.057
28	0.0638	-0.4694	-0.0264	-0.1909	0.0649	0.9668
29	0.0596	-0.4464	0.0334	-0.1751	-0.0657	0.8801
30	0.0549	-0.4239	0.0852	-0.16	-0.1805	0.7969
31	0.0497	-0.4021	0.1296	-0.1456	-0.2806	0.7171
32	0.0445	-0.3809	0.1674	-0.1319	-0.367	0.6406
33	0.0391	-0.3603	0.1992	-0.1189	-0.4408	0.5674
34	0.0338	-0.3403	0.2256	-0.1067	-0.5029	0.4975
35	0.0287	-0.321	0.2473	-0.0951	-0.5544	0.4308
36	0.0238	-0.3025	0.2647	-0.0843	-0.5962	0.3672
37	0.0192	-0.2846	0.2784	-0.0742	-0.6292	0.3068
38	0.0149	-0.2674	0.2888	-0.0648	-0.6543	0.2494
39	0.0109	-0.251	0.2962	-0.056	-0.6724	0.1949
40	0.0072	-0.2352	0.3012	-0.048	-0.6841	0.1434

Figure 3. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against Backdrop of Domestic Recession

Data for Figure 3 (Soild Line)

Period	Home GDP	Home Policy Rate	Home Absorption	Home Inflation	Home Exports	Home Real Interest Rate	Real Exchange Rate	Home Trade Balance
1	-0.5185	0	0.0274	-0.6346	-2.4717	0.1305	-3.525	-0.4552
2	-0.7081	0	0.1187	-0.5219	-3.703	0.0952	-3.5346	-0.5204
3	-0.7226	0	0.2374	-0.3809	-4.2568	0.0629	-3.4476	-0.5478
4	-0.6494	0	0.3599	-0.2517	-4.4314	0.0375	-3.3039	-0.5512
5	-0.5382	0	0.4723	-0.1498	-4.3918	0.0195	-3.1302	-0.5397
6	-0.4168	0	0.5676	-0.078	-4.232	0.0083	-2.9443	-0.5193
7	-0.3004	0	0.6429	-0.0332	-4.0078	0.0026	-2.7574	-0.4941
8	-0.1963	0	0.6985	-0.0104	-3.7528	0.001	-2.5757	-0.4664
9	-0.1073	0	0.7357	-0.0039	-3.4873	0.0022	-2.4022	-0.438
10	-0.0342	0	0.7568	-0.0088	-3.2243	0.0052	-2.2373	-0.4095
11	0.0233	-0.1453	0.7638	-0.0209	-2.9728	-0.0271	-2.0804	-0.3817
12	0.0626	-0.1191	0.7559	-0.0368	-2.7417	-0.0166	-1.9669	-0.358
13	0.0903	-0.1053	0.7388	-0.0528	-2.5256	-0.0096	-1.8528	-0.3345
14	0.1104	-0.1003	0.7159	-0.067	-2.3231	-0.0054	-1.7406	-0.3118
15	0.125	-0.1011	0.6897	-0.0789	-2.1342	-0.0032	-1.6315	-0.2901
16	0.1358	-0.1054	0.6618	-0.0884	-1.9588	-0.0024	-1.5265	-0.2696
17	0.1436	-0.1115	0.6331	-0.0958	-1.7966	-0.0026	-1.4259	-0.2504
18	0.149	-0.1181	0.6042	-0.1011	-1.6467	-0.0033	-1.3297	-0.2323
19	0.1526	-0.1247	0.5753	-0.1049	-1.5085	-0.0044	-1.2379	-0.2154
20	0.1545	-0.1306	0.5468	-0.1072	-1.3808	-0.0056	-1.1501	-0.1996
21	0.1552	-0.1358	0.5186	-0.1083	-1.2628	-0.0068	-1.0662	-0.1847
22	0.1547	-0.1401	0.4908	-0.1084	-1.1534	-0.0081	-0.9859	-0.1707
23	0.1534	-0.1434	0.4636	-0.1078	-1.0518	-0.0092	-0.909	-0.1575
24	0.1512	-0.1458	0.4369	-0.1064	-0.9571	-0.0103	-0.8353	-0.145
25	0.1485	-0.1474	0.4108	-0.1045	-0.8686	-0.0113	-0.7647	-0.1332
26	0.1452	-0.1482	0.3853	-0.1021	-0.7858	-0.0122	-0.6971	-0.1221
27	0.1414	-0.1483	0.3604	-0.0993	-0.708	-0.013	-0.6323	-0.1115
28	0.1374	-0.1478	0.3361	-0.0962	-0.6349	-0.0137	-0.5702	-0.1014
29	0.1331	-0.1467	0.3126	-0.0928	-0.566	-0.0144	-0.5108	-0.0918
30	0.1286	-0.1451	0.2897	-0.0893	-0.5009	-0.0149	-0.454	-0.0826
31	0.124	-0.143	0.2676	-0.0855	-0.4394	-0.0153	-0.3998	-0.0739
32	0.1193	-0.1405	0.2463	-0.0816	-0.3813	-0.0157	-0.3481	-0.0657
33	0.1147	-0.1377	0.2257	-0.0777	-0.3263	-0.016	-0.2988	-0.0578
34	0.11	-0.1346	0.2059	-0.0736	-0.2743	-0.0163	-0.252	-0.0503
35	0.1054	-0.1313	0.1869	-0.0696	-0.225	-0.0164	-0.2074	-0.0431
36	0.1009	-0.1277	0.1688	-0.0656	-0.1783	-0.0165	-0.1652	-0.0364
37	0.0965	-0.1239	0.1514	-0.0615	-0.1341	-0.0166	-0.1252	-0.0299
38	0.0922	-0.12	0.1348	-0.0576	-0.0923	-0.0166	-0.0874	-0.0238
39	0.0881	-0.1159	0.1191	-0.0536	-0.0528	-0.0165	-0.0517	-0.018
40	0.0841	-0.1118	0.1041	-0.0498	-0.0154	-0.0164	-0.018	-0.0125

Data for Figure 3 (Dashed Line)

Period	Home GDP	Home Policy Rate	Home Absorption	Home Inflation	Home Exports	Home Real Interest Rate	Real Exchange Rate	Home Trade Balance
1	-0.2855	-0.1988	0.2229	-0.3466	-2.2558	0.0218	-2.8563	-0.4038
2	-0.3565	-0.2924	0.4315	-0.2858	-3.4469	-0.0189	-2.9741	-0.4899
3	-0.3262	-0.3212	0.6056	-0.2166	-4.0261	-0.0403	-3.0001	-0.534
4	-0.2546	-0.3127	0.7383	-0.16	-4.2422	-0.0478	-2.9585	-0.5492
5	-0.1725	-0.2851	0.8303	-0.1217	-4.2396	-0.0463	-2.8693	-0.5449
6	-0.0949	-0.2508	0.8868	-0.1	-4.1063	-0.0399	-2.749	-0.5279
7	-0.0279	-0.2179	0.9142	-0.0913	-3.898	-0.0316	-2.6106	-0.5033
8	0.0267	-0.1906	0.9192	-0.0914	-3.6509	-0.0235	-2.4638	-0.4745
9	0.0695	-0.1705	0.9079	-0.0967	-3.3882	-0.0165	-2.3155	-0.444
10	0.102	-0.1576	0.8852	-0.1045	-3.1251	-0.0111	-2.1701	-0.4133
11	0.126	-0.1507	0.8552	-0.113	-2.8706	-0.0075	-2.0304	-0.3834
12	0.1433	-0.1486	0.8207	-0.1209	-2.6301	-0.0053	-1.8978	-0.3551
13	0.1552	-0.1499	0.7839	-0.1276	-2.4061	-0.0043	-1.7728	-0.3284
14	0.163	-0.1533	0.7461	-0.1328	-2.1996	-0.0042	-1.6555	-0.3036
15	0.1676	-0.1577	0.7084	-0.1365	-2.0104	-0.0048	-1.5454	-0.2806
16	0.1698	-0.1625	0.6713	-0.1386	-1.8377	-0.0058	-1.442	-0.2594
17	0.1701	-0.1671	0.6352	-0.1394	-1.6801	-0.007	-1.3447	-0.2398
18	0.169	-0.1712	0.6001	-0.1391	-1.5363	-0.0084	-1.2529	-0.2217
19	0.1668	-0.1744	0.5663	-0.1377	-1.4049	-0.0097	-1.166	-0.2049
20	0.1636	-0.1769	0.5338	-0.1355	-1.2845	-0.0111	-1.0835	-0.1893
21	0.1599	-0.1784	0.5024	-0.1326	-1.1739	-0.0123	-1.005	-0.1748
22	0.1556	-0.1791	0.4721	-0.1292	-1.072	-0.0134	-0.93	-0.1613
23	0.151	-0.179	0.443	-0.1254	-0.9777	-0.0145	-0.8584	-0.1486
24	0.1462	-0.1781	0.415	-0.1212	-0.8901	-0.0154	-0.7898	-0.1366
25	0.1411	-0.1766	0.3879	-0.1167	-0.8085	-0.0161	-0.7241	-0.1254
26	0.1359	-0.1745	0.3619	-0.1121	-0.7322	-0.0168	-0.6612	-0.1148
27	0.1307	-0.1719	0.3369	-0.1073	-0.6607	-0.0174	-0.6008	-0.1047
28	0.1255	-0.1689	0.3128	-0.1024	-0.5934	-0.0178	-0.5429	-0.0952
29	0.1204	-0.1654	0.2896	-0.0975	-0.53	-0.0182	-0.4874	-0.0862
30	0.1153	-0.1616	0.2674	-0.0925	-0.4702	-0.0185	-0.4343	-0.0776
31	0.1103	-0.1576	0.246	-0.0876	-0.4135	-0.0187	-0.3835	-0.0695
32	0.1055	-0.1533	0.2256	-0.0827	-0.3599	-0.0189	-0.3349	-0.0617
33	0.1008	-0.1488	0.206	-0.0778	-0.309	-0.0189	-0.2885	-0.0543
34	0.0963	-0.1442	0.1873	-0.0731	-0.2607	-0.0189	-0.2443	-0.0473
35	0.0919	-0.1394	0.1694	-0.0684	-0.2149	-0.0189	-0.2022	-0.0406
36	0.0877	-0.1346	0.1524	-0.0638	-0.1714	-0.0188	-0.1622	-0.0342
37	0.0837	-0.1297	0.1362	-0.0594	-0.1301	-0.0187	-0.1242	-0.0282
38	0.0799	-0.1248	0.1208	-0.0551	-0.0909	-0.0185	-0.0882	-0.0224
39	0.0763	-0.1198	0.1061	-0.0509	-0.0537	-0.0182	-0.0541	-0.017
40	0.0729	-0.1149	0.0923	-0.0469	-0.0184	-0.018	-0.0218	-0.0118

Figure 4. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against Backdrop of Deeper Domestic Recession

Data for Figure 4 (Soild Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Foreign Relative Import Price	Home Exports
1	-0.5465	-0.6775	0	-0.6346	0.0274	-0.5185	1.5848	-2.4717
2	-0.8459	-1.082	0	-0.5219	0.1187	-0.7081	2.3468	-3.703
3	-0.9736	-1.3104	0	-0.3809	0.2374	-0.7226	2.6938	-4.2568
4	-0.9896	-1.4162	0	-0.2517	0.3599	-0.6494	2.8231	-4.4314
5	-0.9384	-1.4389	0	-0.1498	0.4723	-0.5382	2.8332	-4.3918
6	-0.8507	-1.4087	0	-0.078	0.5676	-0.4168	2.7756	-4.232
7	-0.7465	-1.3485	0	-0.0332	0.6429	-0.3004	2.6789	-4.0078
8	-0.6386	-1.2742	0	-0.0104	0.6985	-0.1963	2.5599	-3.7528
9	-0.5343	-1.1962	0	-0.0039	0.7357	-0.1073	2.4291	-3.4873
10	-0.4377	-1.1209	0	-0.0088	0.7568	-0.0342	2.2936	-3.2243
11	-0.3504	-1.0512	-0.1453	-0.0209	0.7638	0.0233	2.1595	-2.9728
12	-0.273	-0.9885	-0.1191	-0.0368	0.7559	0.0626	2.0341	-2.7417
13	-0.2058	-0.9327	-0.1053	-0.0528	0.7388	0.0903	1.9124	-2.5256
14	-0.1483	-0.8833	-0.1003	-0.067	0.7159	0.1104	1.7937	-2.3231
15	-0.0997	-0.8394	-0.1011	-0.0789	0.6897	0.125	1.6785	-2.1342
16	-0.0592	-0.7999	-0.1054	-0.0884	0.6618	0.1358	1.5675	-1.9588
17	-0.0259	-0.764	-0.1115	-0.0958	0.6331	0.1436	1.4613	-1.7966
18	0.001	-0.7309	-0.1181	-0.1011	0.6042	0.149	1.36	-1.6467
19	0.0223	-0.6999	-0.1247	-0.1049	0.5753	0.1526	1.2635	-1.5085
20	0.0386	-0.6705	-0.1306	-0.1072	0.5468	0.1545	1.1716	-1.3808
21	0.0508	-0.6423	-0.1358	-0.1083	0.5186	0.1552	1.0841	-1.2628
22	0.0593	-0.6151	-0.1401	-0.1084	0.4908	0.1547	1.0006	-1.1534
23	0.0648	-0.5887	-0.1434	-0.1078	0.4636	0.1534	0.921	-1.0518
24	0.0677	-0.563	-0.1458	-0.1064	0.4369	0.1512	0.845	-0.9571
25	0.0685	-0.5378	-0.1474	-0.1045	0.4108	0.1485	0.7724	-0.8686
26	0.0676	-0.5132	-0.1482	-0.1021	0.3853	0.1452	0.703	-0.7858
27	0.0653	-0.4892	-0.1483	-0.0993	0.3604	0.1414	0.6367	-0.708
28	0.062	-0.4657	-0.1478	-0.0962	0.3361	0.1374	0.5733	-0.6349
29	0.058	-0.4427	-0.1467	-0.0928	0.3126	0.1331	0.5128	-0.566
30	0.0533	-0.4203	-0.1451	-0.0893	0.2897	0.1286	0.455	-0.5009
31	0.0484	-0.3985	-0.143	-0.0855	0.2676	0.124	0.4	-0.4394
32	0.0432	-0.3774	-0.1405	-0.0816	0.2463	0.1193	0.3475	-0.3813
33	0.038	-0.3569	-0.1377	-0.0777	0.2257	0.1147	0.2976	-0.3263
34	0.0329	-0.337	-0.1346	-0.0736	0.2059	0.11	0.2502	-0.2743
35	0.0279	-0.3178	-0.1313	-0.0696	0.1869	0.1054	0.2052	-0.225
36	0.0231	-0.2993	-0.1277	-0.0656	0.1688	0.1009	0.1625	-0.1783
37	0.0186	-0.2816	-0.1239	-0.0615	0.1514	0.0965	0.1222	-0.1341
38	0.0144	-0.2645	-0.12	-0.0576	0.1348	0.0922	0.0841	-0.0923
39	0.0106	-0.2482	-0.1159	-0.0536	0.1191	0.0881	0.0482	-0.0528
40	0.007	-0.2326	-0.1118	-0.0498	0.1041	0.0841	0.0144	-0.0154

Data for Figure 4 (Dashed Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Foreign Relative Import Price	Home Exports
1	-0.5425	-0.6762	0	-0.8299	-0.0651	-0.6256	1.6656	-2.5615
2	-0.8427	-1.0804	0	-0.6952	-0.0354	-0.8767	2.4439	-3.8114
3	-0.9723	-1.3093	0	-0.523	0.0449	-0.9252	2.7858	-4.36
4	-0.99	-1.4159	0	-0.3606	0.1462	-0.8688	2.9066	-4.5256
5	-0.94	-1.4392	0	-0.227	0.2497	-0.7636	2.911	-4.4798
6	-0.8529	-1.4095	0	-0.1267	0.3445	-0.6415	2.8522	-4.319
7	-0.749	-1.3494	0	-0.0573	0.4252	-0.5204	2.7585	-4.0985
8	-0.641	-1.275	0	-0.0134	0.4898	-0.409	2.6458	-3.8509
9	-0.5365	-1.1967	0	0.0108	0.5388	-0.311	2.5232	-3.5952
10	-0.4395	-1.121	0	0.021	0.5738	-0.2272	2.3965	-3.3426
11	-0.3521	-1.0509	0	0.0217	0.5969	-0.1565	2.269	-3.0991
12	-0.2749	-0.9879	0	0.0163	0.6103	-0.0973	2.1427	-2.8677
13	-0.2079	-0.9318	0	0.0075	0.6163	-0.0477	2.0187	-2.6498
14	-0.1504	-0.8821	0	-0.003	0.6165	-0.0059	1.8977	-2.4453
15	-0.1019	-0.8379	0	-0.0142	0.6124	0.0295	1.7798	-2.254
16	-0.0615	-0.7982	0	-0.0256	0.6048	0.0596	1.6654	-2.0751
17	-0.0282	-0.7621	-0.0435	-0.0366	0.5942	0.0848	1.5553	-1.9088
18	-0.0013	-0.7287	-0.0784	-0.0473	0.5799	0.104	1.4513	-1.7563
19	0.0201	-0.6974	-0.0805	-0.0569	0.562	0.1178	1.353	-1.6163
20	0.0365	-0.6677	-0.0847	-0.065	0.5419	0.1278	1.2586	-1.4859
21	0.0487	-0.6394	-0.0901	-0.0715	0.5203	0.1352	1.1675	-1.3639
22	0.0572	-0.612	-0.0959	-0.0765	0.4978	0.1404	1.0796	-1.2495
23	0.0627	-0.5855	-0.1015	-0.0802	0.4747	0.1438	0.9949	-1.142
24	0.0656	-0.5597	-0.1066	-0.0827	0.4512	0.1459	0.9135	-1.041
25	0.0664	-0.5345	-0.1111	-0.0843	0.4276	0.1467	0.8353	-0.9461
26	0.0655	-0.5099	-0.1149	-0.0849	0.4039	0.1464	0.7604	-0.8567
27	0.0633	-0.4858	-0.1179	-0.0849	0.3804	0.1453	0.6886	-0.7726
28	0.0601	-0.4623	-0.1202	-0.0842	0.3571	0.1434	0.62	-0.6932
29	0.0561	-0.4393	-0.1218	-0.083	0.3341	0.1409	0.5545	-0.6182
30	0.0516	-0.4169	-0.1227	-0.0813	0.3115	0.1379	0.4919	-0.5474
31	0.0467	-0.3952	-0.1229	-0.0793	0.2893	0.1344	0.4323	-0.4805
32	0.0417	-0.374	-0.1227	-0.0769	0.2677	0.1306	0.3757	-0.4172
33	0.0366	-0.3535	-0.1219	-0.0742	0.2466	0.1265	0.3218	-0.3574
34	0.0316	-0.3337	-0.1206	-0.0713	0.2262	0.1223	0.2707	-0.3008
35	0.0268	-0.3146	-0.119	-0.0683	0.2064	0.1179	0.2224	-0.2473
36	0.0221	-0.2962	-0.117	-0.065	0.1874	0.1135	0.1766	-0.1968
37	0.0178	-0.2785	-0.1146	-0.0617	0.169	0.109	0.1334	-0.149
38	0.0137	-0.2616	-0.112	-0.0584	0.1515	0.1045	0.0927	-0.104
39	0.01	-0.2453	-0.1091	-0.055	0.1347	0.1002	0.0544	-0.0615
40	0.0065	-0.2298	-0.1061	-0.0515	0.1187	0.0958	0.0185	-0.0214

Figure 5. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against the Backdrop of Domestic Recession Alternative Monetary Policy Rules*

$^{*}$ The parameters for the policy rule described in equation (17) are chosen as: $\gamma_{i} = 0.7, \gamma_{\pi} = 1.5, \gamma_{y} = 0.5$ for the benchmark Taylor rule; the rule more aggressive on inflation takes $\gamma_{\pi} = 3$ while leaving the other parameters unchanged; and the rule more aggressive on the output gap takes $\gamma_{y} = 4$ while leaving the other parameters unchanged.
$^{**}$ The spillover effects are defined as the ratio of the response of home GDP (in log deviation from the path implied by the initial baseline recession) to the response of foreign GDP (also in deviation from its initial path). The measure shown is an average of the spillover effects over the first four quarters. The size of the foreign consumption shock is small enough not to influence the number of periods for which the zero lower bound on policy rates is binding.

Data for Figure 5

Taylor Rule	More aggressive on inflation	More aggressive on output gap
0.3571	0.3052	0.2711
0.3788	0.3273	0.2826
0.4016	0.3301	0.3231
0.4757	0.4177	0.3575
0.5261	0.4496	0.3963
0.5535	0.5008	0.4346
0.6073	0.5511	0.4694
0.6593	0.5651	0.5112
0.6688	0.6148	0.5495
0.7183	0.66	0.5619
0.7639	0.699	0.5975
0.8053	0.7302	0.6288
0.8427	0.7527	0.6561
0.8768	0.7669	0.6798

Figure 6. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against Backdrop of Domestic Recession Alternative Monetary Policy Rules*

$^{*}$ The parameters for the policy rule described in equation (17) are chosen as: $\gamma_{i} = 0.7, \gamma_{\pi} = 1.5, \gamma_{y} = 0.5$ for the benchmark Taylor rule; the rule more aggressive on inflation takes $\gamma_{\pi} = 3$ while leaving the other parameters unchanged; and the rule more aggressive on the output gap takes $\gamma_{y} = 4$ while leaving the other parameters unchanged.
$^{**}$ The spillover effects are defined as the ratio of the response of home GDP (in deviation from the path implied by the initial baseline recession) to the response of foreign GDP (also in deviation from its initial path). The measure shown is an average of the spillover effects over the first four quarters.

Data for Figure 6 (Top Panel)

Average percent change in foreign GDP	Baseline Monetary Policy Rule	Average percent change in foreign GDP	More aggressive on inflation	Average percent change in foreign GDP	More aggressive on output gap
-9.4813	13	-9.4588	11	-9.4955	15
-9.4451	13	-9.403	11	-9.4604	15
-9.409	13	-9.3471	11	-9.4254	15
-9.3728	13	-9.2913	11	-9.3904	15
-9.3366	13	-9.2355	11	-9.3553	15
-9.3005	13	-9.1797	11	-9.3203	15
-9.2643	13	-9.1239	11	-9.2853	15
-9.2281	13	-9.068	11	-9.2502	15
-9.192	13	-9.0122	11	-9.2152	15
-9.1558	13	-8.9564	11	-9.1802	15
-9.1196	13	-8.9006	11	-9.1451	15
-9.0834	13	-8.8448	11	-9.1101	15
-9.0473	13	-8.7889	11	-9.0751	15
-9.0111	13	-8.7331	11	-9.04	15
-8.9749	13	-8.6773	11	-9.005	15
-8.9388	13	-8.6215	11	-8.97	15
-8.9026	13	-8.5657	11	-8.9349	15
-8.8664	13	-8.5098	11	-8.8999	15
-8.8303	13	-8.454	11	-8.8649	15
-8.7941	13	-8.3982	11	-8.8299	15
-8.7579	13	-8.3424	11	-8.7948	15
-8.7217	13	-8.2866	11	-8.7598	15
-8.6856	13	-8.2308	11	-8.7248	15
-8.6494	13	-8.1749	11	-8.6897	14
-8.6132	13	-8.1191	11	-8.6547	14
-8.5771	13	-8.0633	11	-8.6196	14
-8.5409	13	-8.0075	11	-8.5846	14
-8.5047	13	-7.9517	11	-8.5496	14
-8.4686	13	-7.8958	11	-8.5145	14
-8.4324	13	-7.84	11	-8.4795	14
-8.3962	13	-7.7842	11	-8.4445	14
-8.36	13	-7.7284	11	-8.4094	14
-8.3239	13	-7.6726	11	-8.3744	14
-8.2877	13	-7.6167	11	-8.3393	14
-8.2515	13	-7.5609	11	-8.3043	14
-8.2154	13	-7.5051	11	-8.2693	14
-8.1792	13	-7.4493	11	-8.2342	14
-8.143	13	-7.3935	11	-8.1992	14
-8.1069	13	-7.3376	11	-8.1641	14
-8.0707	13	-7.2818	11	-8.1291	14
-8.0345	13	-7.226	11	-8.0941	14
-7.9983	13	-7.1702	11	-8.059	14
-7.9622	13	-7.1144	11	-8.024	14
-7.926	13	-7.0585	11	-7.989	14
-7.8898	13	-7.0027	11	-7.9539	14
-7.8537	13	-6.9469	11	-7.9189	14
-7.8175	13	-6.8911	11	-7.8838	14
-7.7813	13	-6.8353	11	-7.8488	14
-7.7452	13	-6.7795	11	-7.8138	14
-7.709	13	-6.7236	11	-7.7787	14
-7.6728	13	-6.6678	11	-7.7437	14
-7.6366	13	-6.612	11	-7.7086	14
-7.6005	13	-6.5562	11	-7.6736	14
-7.5643	13	-6.5004	11	-7.6386	14
-7.5281	13	-6.4445	11	-7.6035	14
-7.492	13	-6.3887	11	-7.5685	14
-7.4558	13	-6.3329	11	-7.5335	14
-7.4196	13	-6.2771	11	-7.4984	14
-7.3835	13	-6.2213	11	-7.4634	14
-7.3473	13	-6.1654	11	-7.4283	14
-7.3111	13	-6.1096	11	-7.3933	14
-7.2749	13	-6.0538	11	-7.3583	14
-7.2388	13	-5.998	11	-7.3232	14
-7.2026	13	-5.9422	11	-7.2882	14
-7.1664	13	-5.8863	11	-7.2531	14
-7.1303	13	-5.8305	11	-7.2181	14
-7.0941	13	-5.7747	11	-7.1831	14
-7.0579	13	-5.7189	11	-7.148	14
-7.0217	12	-5.6631	11	-7.113	14
-6.9856	12	-5.6072	11	-7.078	14
-6.9494	12	-5.5514	11	-7.0429	14
-6.9132	12	-5.4956	11	-7.0079	14
-6.877	12	-5.4398	11	-6.9728	14
-6.8408	12	-5.384	11	-6.9378	14
-6.8046	12	-5.3282	11	-6.9028	14
-6.7685	12	-5.2723	11	-6.8677	14
-6.7323	12	-5.2165	11	-6.8327	14
-6.6961	12	-5.1607	11	-6.7976	14
-6.6599	12	-5.1049	11	-6.7626	14
-6.6237	12	-5.0491	11	-6.7276	14
-6.5875	12	-4.9932	11	-6.6925	14
-6.5514	12	-4.9374	11	-6.6575	14
-6.5152	12	-4.8816	11	-6.6225	14
-6.479	12	-4.8258	11	-6.5874	14
-6.4428	12	-4.77	11	-6.5524	14
-6.4066	12	-4.7141	11	-6.5173	14
-6.3704	12	-4.6583	11	-6.4823	14
-6.3343	12	-4.6025	11	-6.4473	14
-6.2981	12	-4.5467	11	-6.4122	14
-6.2619	12	-4.4909	11	-6.3772	14
-6.2257	12	-4.435	11	-6.3421	14
-6.1895	12	-4.3792	11	-6.3071	14
-6.1533	12	-4.3234	11	-6.2721	14
-6.1172	12	-4.2676	11	-6.237	14
-6.081	12	-4.2118	11	-6.202	14
-6.0448	12	-4.1559	11	-6.167	14
-6.0086	12	-4.1001	11	-6.1319	14
-5.9724	12	-4.0443	11	-6.0969	14
-5.9362	12	-3.9885	11	-6.0618	14
-5.9001	12	-3.9327	11	-6.0268	14
-5.8639	12	-3.8769	11	-5.9918	14
-5.8277	12	-3.821	11	-5.9567	14
-5.7915	12	-3.7652	11	-5.9217	14
-5.7553	12	-3.7094	11	-5.8866	14
-5.7191	12	-3.6536	11	-5.8516	14
-5.6829	12	-3.5978	11	-5.8166	14
-5.6468	12	-3.5419	11	-5.7815	14
-5.6106	12	-3.4861	11	-5.7465	14
-5.5744	12	-3.4303	11	-5.7115	14
-5.5382	12	-3.3745	11	-5.6764	14
-5.502	12	-3.3187	11	-5.6414	14
-5.4658	12	-3.2628	11	-5.6063	14
-5.4297	12	-3.207	11	-5.5713	14
-5.3935	12	-3.1512	11	-5.5363	14
-5.3573	12	-3.0954	11	-5.5012	14
-5.3211	12	-3.0396	11	-5.4662	14
-5.2849	12	-2.9837	11	-5.4311	14
-5.2487	12	-2.9279	11	-5.3961	14
-5.2126	12	-2.8721	11	-5.3611	14
-5.1764	12	-2.8163	11	-5.326	14
-5.1402	12	-2.7605	11	-5.291	14
-5.104	12	-2.7046	11	-5.256	14
-5.0678	12	-2.6488	11	-5.2209	14
-5.0316	12	-2.593	11	-5.1859	14
-4.9955	12	-2.5372	11	-5.1508	14
-4.9593	12	-2.4814	11	-5.1158	14
-4.9231	12	-2.4256	11	-5.0808	14
-4.8869	12	-2.3697	11	-5.0457	14
-4.8507	12	-2.3139	11	-5.0107	14
-4.8145	12	-2.2581	11	-4.9756	14
-4.7784	12	-2.2023	11	-4.9406	14
-4.7422	12	-2.1465	11	-4.9056	14
-4.706	12	-2.0906	11	-4.8705	14
-4.6698	12	-2.0348	11	-4.8355	14
-4.6336	12	-1.979	11	-4.8005	14
-4.5974	12	-1.9232	11	-4.7654	14
-4.5613	12	-1.8674	11	-4.7304	14
-4.5251	12	-1.8115	11	-4.6953	14
-4.4889	12	-1.7557	11	-4.6603	13
-4.4527	12	-1.6999	11	-4.6253	13
-4.4165	12	-1.6441	11	-4.5902	13
-4.3803	12	-1.5883	11	-4.5552	13
-4.3441	12	-1.5324	11	-4.5201	13
-4.308	12	-1.4766	11	-4.4851	13
-4.2718	12	-1.4208	11	-4.45	13
-4.2356	12	-1.365	11	-4.415	13
-4.1994	12	-1.3092	11	-4.3799	13
-4.1632	12	-1.2533	11	-4.3449	13
-4.127	12	-1.1975	11	-4.3098	13
-4.0909	12	-1.1417	11	-4.2748	13
-4.0547	12	-1.0859	11	-4.2398	13
-4.0185	12	-1.0301	11	-4.2047	13
-3.9823	12	-0.9743	11	-4.1697	13
-3.9461	12	-0.9184	11	-4.1346	13
-3.9099	11	-0.8626	11	-4.0996	13
-3.8737	11	-0.8068	11	-4.0645	13
-3.8375	11	-0.751	11	-4.0295	13
-3.8013	11	-0.6952	11	-3.9944	13
-3.7651	11	-0.6393	11	-3.9594	13
-3.7289	11	-0.5835	11	-3.9243	13
-3.6927	11	-0.5277	11	-3.8893	13
-3.6566	11	-0.4719	11	-3.8542	13
-3.6204	11	-0.4161	11	-3.8192	13
-3.5842	11	-0.3602	11	-3.7842	13
-3.548	11	-0.3044	11	-3.7491	13
-3.5118	11	-0.2486	11	-3.7141	13
-3.4756	11	-0.1928	11	-3.679	13
-3.4394	11	-0.137	11	-3.644	13
-3.4032	11	-0.0811	11	-3.6089	13
-3.367	11	-0.0253	11	-3.5739	13
-3.3308	11	0.0305	11	-3.5388	13
-3.2946	11	0.0863	11	-3.5038	13
-3.2584	11	0.1421	11	-3.4687	13
-3.2222	11	0.198	11	-3.4337	13
-3.186	11	0.2538	11	-3.3987	13
-3.1498	11	0.3096	11	-3.3636	13
-3.1136	11	0.3654	11	-3.3286	13
-3.0774	11	0.4212	11	-3.2935	13
-3.0412	11	0.477	11	-3.2585	13
-3.005	11	0.5329	11	-3.2234	13
-2.9688	11	0.5887	11	-3.1884	13
-2.9326	11	0.6445	11	-3.1533	13
-2.8964	11	0.7003	11	-3.1183	13
-2.8602	11	0.7561	11	-3.0832	13
-2.824	11	0.812	11	-3.0482	13
-2.7878	11	0.8678	11	-3.0132	13
-2.7516	11	0.9236	11	-2.9781	13
-2.7154	11	0.9794	11	-2.9431	13
-2.6792	11	1.0352	11	-2.908	13
-2.643	11	1.0911	11	-2.873	13
-2.6068	11	1.1469	11	-2.8379	13
-2.5706	11	1.2027	11	-2.8029	13
-2.5344	11	1.2585	11	-2.7678	13
-2.4982	11	1.3143	11	-2.7328	13
-2.462	11	1.3702	11	-2.6977	13
-2.4258	11	1.426	11	-2.6627	13
-2.3896	11	1.4818	11	-2.6277	13
-2.3534	11	1.5376	11	-2.5926	13
-2.3172	11	1.5934	11	-2.5576	13
-2.281	11	1.6493	11	-2.5225	13
-2.2448	11	1.7051	11	-2.4875	13
-2.2086	11	1.7609	11	-2.4524	13
-2.1724	11	1.8167	11	-2.4174	13
-2.1362	11	1.8725	11	-2.3823	13
-2.1	11	1.9283	11	-2.3473	13
-2.0638	11	1.9842	11	-2.3122	13
-2.0276	11	2.04	11	-2.2772	13
-1.9915	11	2.0958	11	-2.2422	13
-1.9553	11	2.1516	11	-2.2071	13
-1.9191	11	2.2074	11	-2.1721	13
-1.8829	11	2.2633	11	-2.137	13
-1.8467	11	2.3191	11	-2.102	13
-1.8105	11	2.3749	11	-2.0669	13
-1.7743	11	2.4307	11	-2.0319	13
-1.7381	11	2.4865	11	-1.9968	13
-1.7019	11	2.5424	11	-1.9618	13
-1.6657	11	2.5982	10	-1.9267	13
-1.6295	11	2.654	10	-1.8917	13
-1.5933	11	2.7099	10	-1.8567	13
-1.5571	11	2.7657	10	-1.8216	13
-1.5209	11	2.8215	10	-1.7866	13
-1.4847	11	2.8774	10	-1.7515	13
-1.4485	11	2.9332	10	-1.7165	13
-1.4123	11	2.9891	10	-1.6814	13
-1.3761	11	3.0449	10	-1.6464	13
-1.3399	11	3.1007	10	-1.6113	13
-1.3037	11	3.1566	10	-1.5763	13
-1.2675	11	3.2124	10	-1.5412	13
-1.2313	11	3.2683	10	-1.5062	13
-1.1951	11	3.3241	10	-1.4712	13
-1.1589	11	3.3799	10	-1.4361	13
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13.2867	0			12.5451	0
13.3232	0			12.5803	0
13.3596	0			12.6156	0
13.396	0			12.6509	0
13.4324	0			12.6861	0
13.4689	0			12.7214	0
13.5053	0			12.7566	0
13.5417	0			12.7919	0
13.5781	0			12.8272	0
13.6146	0			12.8624	0
13.651	0			12.8977	0
13.6874	0			12.9329	0
13.7238	0			12.9682	0
13.7603	0			13.0034	0
13.7967	0			13.0387	0
13.8331	0			13.074	0
13.8695	0			13.1092	0
13.906	0			13.1445	0
13.9424	0			13.1797	0
13.9788	0			13.215	0
14.0152	0			13.2502	0
14.0517	0			13.2855	0
14.0881	0			13.3208	0
14.1245	0			13.356	0
14.1609	0			13.3913	0
14.1974	0			13.4265	0
14.2338	0			13.4618	0
14.2702	0			13.497	0
14.3066	0			13.5323	0
14.3431	0			13.5676	0
14.3795	0			13.6028	0
14.4159	0			13.6381	0
14.4523	0			13.6733	0
14.4888	0			13.7086	0
14.5252	0			13.7439	0
14.5616	0			13.7791	0
14.598	0			13.8144	0
14.6345	0			13.8496	0
14.6709	0			13.8849	0
14.7073	0			13.9201	0
14.7437	0			13.9554	0
14.7802	0			13.9907	0
14.8166	0			14.0259	0
14.853	0			14.0612	0
14.8894	0			14.0964	0
14.9259	0			14.1317	0
14.9623	0			14.1669	0
14.9987	0			14.2022	0
15.0351	0			14.2375	0
15.0716	0			14.2727	0
15.108	0			14.308	0
15.1444	0			14.3432	0
15.1808	0			14.3785	0
15.2173	0			14.4137	0
15.2537	0			14.449	0
15.2901	0			14.4843	0
15.3265	0			14.5195	0
15.363	0			14.5548	0
15.3994	0			14.59	0
15.4358	0			14.6253	0
15.4722	0			14.6605	0
15.5087	0			14.6958	0
15.5451	0			14.7311	0
15.5815	0			14.7663	0
15.6179	0			14.8016	0
15.6544	0			14.8368	0
15.6908	0			14.8721	0
15.7272	0			14.9074	0
15.7636	0			14.9426	0
15.8001	0			14.9779	0
15.8365	0			15.0131	0
15.8729	0			15.0484	0
15.9093	0			15.0836	0
15.9458	0			15.1189	0
15.9822	0			15.1542	0
16.0186	0			15.1894	0
16.055	0			15.2247	0
16.0915	0			15.2599	0
16.1279	0			15.2952	0
16.1643	0			15.3304	0
16.2007	0			15.3657	0
16.2372	0			15.401	0
16.2736	0			15.4362	0
16.31	0			15.4715	0
16.3464	0			15.5067	0
16.3829	0			15.542	0
16.4193	0			15.5772	0
16.4557	0			15.6125	0
16.4921	0			15.6478	0
16.5286	0			15.683	0
16.565	0			15.7183	0
16.6014	0			15.7535	0
16.6378	0			15.7888	0
16.6743	0			15.824	0
16.7107	0			15.8593	0
16.7471	0			15.8946	0
16.7835	0			15.9298	0
16.82	0			15.9651	0
16.8564	0			16.0003	0
16.8928	0			16.0356	0
16.9292	0			16.0709	0
16.9657	0			16.1061	0
17.0021	0			16.1414	0
17.0385	0			16.1766	0
17.0749	0			16.2119	0
17.1114	0			16.2471	0
17.1478	0			16.2824	0
17.1842	0			16.3177	0
17.2206	0			16.3529	0
17.2571	0			16.3882	0
17.2935	0			16.4234	0
17.3299	0			16.4587	0
17.3663	0			16.4939	0
17.4028	0			16.5292	0
17.4392	0			16.5645	0
17.4756	0			16.5997	0
17.512	0			16.635	0
17.5485	0			16.6702	0
17.5849	0			16.7055	0
17.6213	0			16.7407	0
17.6577	0			16.776	0
17.6942	0			16.8113	0
17.7306	0			16.8465	0
17.767	0			16.8818	0
17.8034	0			16.917	0
17.8399	0			16.9523	0
17.8763	0			16.9876	0
17.9127	0			17.0228	0
17.9491	0			17.0581	0
17.9856	0			17.0933	0
18.022	0			17.1286	0
18.0584	0			17.1638	0
18.0948	0			17.1991	0
18.1313	0			17.2344	0
18.1677	0			17.2696	0
18.2041	0			17.3049	0
18.2405	0			17.3401	0
18.277	0			17.3754	0
18.3134	0			17.4106	0
18.3498	0			17.4459	0
18.3862	0			17.4812	0
18.4227	0			17.5164	0
18.4591	0			17.5517	0
18.4955	0			17.5869	0
18.5319	0			17.6222	0
18.5684	0			17.6574	0
18.6048	0			17.6927	0
18.6412	0			17.728	0
18.6776	0			17.7632	0
18.7141	0			17.7985	0
18.7505	0			17.8337	0
18.7869	0			17.869	0
18.8233	0			17.9042	0
18.8598	0			17.9395	0
18.8962	0			17.9748	0
18.9326	0			18.01	0
18.969	0			18.0453	0
19.0055	0			18.0805	0
19.0419	0			18.1158	0
19.0783	0			18.1511	0
19.1147	0			18.1863	0
19.1512	0			18.2216	0
19.1876	0			18.2568	0
19.224	0			18.2921	0
19.2604	0			18.3273	0
19.2969	0			18.3626	0
19.3333	0			18.3979	0
19.3697	0			18.4331	0
19.4061	0			18.4684	0
19.4426	0			18.5036	0
19.479	0			18.5389	0
19.5154	0			18.5741	0
19.5518	0			18.6094	0
19.5883	0			18.6447	0
19.6247	0			18.6799	0
19.6611	0			18.7152	0
19.6975	0			18.7504	0
19.734	0			18.7857	0
19.7704	0			18.8209	0
19.8068	0			18.8562	0
19.8432	0			18.8915	0
19.8796	0			18.9267	0
19.9161	0			18.962	0
19.9525	0			18.9972	0
19.9889	0			19.0325	0
				19.0678	0
				19.103	0
				19.1383	0
				19.1735	0
				19.2088	0
				19.244	0
				19.2793	0
				19.3146	0
				19.3498	0
				19.3851	0
				19.4203	0
				19.4556	0
				19.4908	0
				19.5261	0
				19.5614	0
				19.5966	0
				19.6319	0
				19.6671	0
				19.7024	0
				19.7376	0
				19.7729	0
				19.8082	0
				19.8434	0
				19.8787	0
				19.9139	0
				19.9492	0
				19.9844	0

Data for Figure 6 (Bottom Left Panel)

Average percent change in foreign GDP	Baseline Monetary Policy Rule	Average percent change in foreign GDP	More aggressive on inflation	Average percent change in foreign GDP	More aggressive on output gap
-9.4813	0.8327	-9.4588	0.7302	-9.4955	0.6887
-9.4451	0.8325	-9.403	0.7302	-9.4604	0.6886
-9.409	0.8323	-9.3471	0.7302	-9.4254	0.6885
-9.3728	0.8322	-9.2913	0.7302	-9.3904	0.6884
-9.3366	0.832	-9.2355	0.7302	-9.3553	0.6883
-9.3005	0.8318	-9.1797	0.7302	-9.3203	0.6882
-9.2643	0.8316	-9.1239	0.7302	-9.2853	0.6881
-9.2281	0.8315	-9.068	0.7302	-9.2502	0.688
-9.192	0.8313	-9.0122	0.7302	-9.2152	0.6878
-9.1558	0.8311	-8.9564	0.7302	-9.1802	0.6877
-9.1196	0.8309	-8.9006	0.7302	-9.1451	0.6876
-9.0834	0.8307	-8.8448	0.7302	-9.1101	0.6875
-9.0473	0.8306	-8.7889	0.7302	-9.0751	0.6874
-9.0111	0.8304	-8.7331	0.7302	-9.04	0.6872
-8.9749	0.8302	-8.6773	0.7302	-9.005	0.6871
-8.9388	0.83	-8.6215	0.7302	-8.97	0.687
-8.9026	0.8298	-8.5657	0.7302	-8.9349	0.6869
-8.8664	0.8296	-8.5098	0.7302	-8.8999	0.6867
-8.8303	0.8294	-8.454	0.7302	-8.8649	0.6866
-8.7941	0.8292	-8.3982	0.7302	-8.8299	0.6865
-8.7579	0.829	-8.3424	0.7302	-8.7948	0.6864
-8.7217	0.8288	-8.2866	0.7302	-8.7598	0.6862
-8.6856	0.8286	-8.2308	0.7302	-8.7248	0.6861
-8.6494	0.8284	-8.1749	0.7302	-8.6897	0.686
-8.6132	0.8282	-8.1191	0.7302	-8.6547	0.686
-8.5771	0.828	-8.0633	0.7302	-8.6196	0.6859
-8.5409	0.8278	-8.0075	0.7302	-8.5846	0.6858
-8.5047	0.8276	-7.9517	0.7302	-8.5496	0.6858
-8.4686	0.8274	-7.8958	0.7302	-8.5145	0.6857
-8.4324	0.8272	-7.84	0.7302	-8.4795	0.6857
-8.3962	0.827	-7.7842	0.7302	-8.4445	0.6856
-8.36	0.8268	-7.7284	0.7302	-8.4094	0.6855
-8.3239	0.8265	-7.6726	0.7302	-8.3744	0.6855
-8.2877	0.8263	-7.6167	0.7302	-8.3393	0.6854
-8.2515	0.8261	-7.5609	0.7302	-8.3043	0.6853
-8.2154	0.8259	-7.5051	0.7302	-8.2693	0.6853
-8.1792	0.8257	-7.4493	0.7302	-8.2342	0.6852
-8.143	0.8254	-7.3935	0.7302	-8.1992	0.6851
-8.1069	0.8252	-7.3376	0.7302	-8.1641	0.6851
-8.0707	0.825	-7.2818	0.7302	-8.1291	0.685
-8.0345	0.8247	-7.226	0.7302	-8.0941	0.685
-7.9983	0.8245	-7.1702	0.7302	-8.059	0.6849
-7.9622	0.8243	-7.1144	0.7302	-8.024	0.6848
-7.926	0.824	-7.0585	0.7302	-7.989	0.6847
-7.8898	0.8238	-7.0027	0.7302	-7.9539	0.6847
-7.8537	0.8235	-6.9469	0.7302	-7.9189	0.6846
-7.8175	0.8233	-6.8911	0.7302	-7.8838	0.6845
-7.7813	0.823	-6.8353	0.7302	-7.8488	0.6845
-7.7452	0.8228	-6.7795	0.7302	-7.8138	0.6844
-7.709	0.8225	-6.7236	0.7302	-7.7787	0.6843
-7.6728	0.8223	-6.6678	0.7302	-7.7437	0.6842
-7.6366	0.822	-6.612	0.7302	-7.7086	0.6842
-7.6005	0.8218	-6.5562	0.7302	-7.6736	0.6841
-7.5643	0.8215	-6.5004	0.7302	-7.6386	0.684
-7.5281	0.8212	-6.4445	0.7302	-7.6035	0.684
-7.492	0.821	-6.3887	0.7302	-7.5685	0.6839
-7.4558	0.8207	-6.3329	0.7302	-7.5335	0.6838
-7.4196	0.8204	-6.2771	0.7302	-7.4984	0.6837
-7.3835	0.8201	-6.2213	0.7302	-7.4634	0.6836
-7.3473	0.8199	-6.1654	0.7302	-7.4283	0.6836
-7.3111	0.8196	-6.1096	0.7302	-7.3933	0.6835
-7.2749	0.8193	-6.0538	0.7302	-7.3583	0.6834
-7.2388	0.819	-5.998	0.7302	-7.3232	0.6833
-7.2026	0.8187	-5.9422	0.7302	-7.2882	0.6832
-7.1664	0.8184	-5.8863	0.7302	-7.2531	0.6832
-7.1303	0.8181	-5.8305	0.7302	-7.2181	0.6831
-7.0941	0.8178	-5.7747	0.7302	-7.1831	0.683
-7.0579	0.8175	-5.7189	0.7302	-7.148	0.6829
-7.0217	0.8174	-5.6631	0.7302	-7.113	0.6828
-6.9856	0.8173	-5.6072	0.7302	-7.078	0.6827
-6.9494	0.8171	-5.5514	0.7302	-7.0429	0.6826
-6.9132	0.817	-5.4956	0.7302	-7.0079	0.6825
-6.877	0.8169	-5.4398	0.7302	-6.9728	0.6825
-6.8408	0.8167	-5.384	0.7302	-6.9378	0.6824
-6.8046	0.8166	-5.3282	0.7302	-6.9028	0.6823
-6.7685	0.8165	-5.2723	0.7302	-6.8677	0.6822
-6.7323	0.8163	-5.2165	0.7302	-6.8327	0.6821
-6.6961	0.8162	-5.1607	0.7302	-6.7976	0.682
-6.6599	0.816	-5.1049	0.7302	-6.7626	0.6819
-6.6237	0.8159	-5.0491	0.7302	-6.7276	0.6818
-6.5875	0.8157	-4.9932	0.7302	-6.6925	0.6817
-6.5514	0.8156	-4.9374	0.7302	-6.6575	0.6816
-6.5152	0.8154	-4.8816	0.7302	-6.6225	0.6815
-6.479	0.8153	-4.8258	0.7302	-6.5874	0.6814
-6.4428	0.8151	-4.77	0.7302	-6.5524	0.6813
-6.4066	0.815	-4.7141	0.7302	-6.5173	0.6812
-6.3704	0.8148	-4.6583	0.7302	-6.4823	0.6811
-6.3343	0.8147	-4.6025	0.7302	-6.4473	0.681
-6.2981	0.8145	-4.5467	0.7302	-6.4122	0.6809
-6.2619	0.8143	-4.4909	0.7302	-6.3772	0.6808
-6.2257	0.8142	-4.435	0.7302	-6.3421	0.6807
-6.1895	0.814	-4.3792	0.7302	-6.3071	0.6806
-6.1533	0.8138	-4.3234	0.7302	-6.2721	0.6804
-6.1172	0.8137	-4.2676	0.7302	-6.237	0.6803
-6.081	0.8135	-4.2118	0.7302	-6.202	0.6802
-6.0448	0.8133	-4.1559	0.7302	-6.167	0.6801
-6.0086	0.8131	-4.1001	0.7302	-6.1319	0.68
-5.9724	0.813	-4.0443	0.7302	-6.0969	0.6799
-5.9362	0.8128	-3.9885	0.7302	-6.0618	0.6798
-5.9001	0.8126	-3.9327	0.7302	-6.0268	0.6796
-5.8639	0.8124	-3.8769	0.7302	-5.9918	0.6795
-5.8277	0.8122	-3.821	0.7302	-5.9567	0.6794
-5.7915	0.812	-3.7652	0.7302	-5.9217	0.6793
-5.7553	0.8118	-3.7094	0.7302	-5.8866	0.6791
-5.7191	0.8116	-3.6536	0.7302	-5.8516	0.679
-5.6829	0.8114	-3.5978	0.7302	-5.8166	0.6789
-5.6468	0.8112	-3.5419	0.7302	-5.7815	0.6787
-5.6106	0.811	-3.4861	0.7302	-5.7465	0.6786
-5.5744	0.8108	-3.4303	0.7302	-5.7115	0.6785
-5.5382	0.8106	-3.3745	0.7302	-5.6764	0.6783
-5.502	0.8104	-3.3187	0.7302	-5.6414	0.6782
-5.4658	0.8102	-3.2628	0.7302	-5.6063	0.6781
-5.4297	0.81	-3.207	0.7302	-5.5713	0.6779
-5.3935	0.8098	-3.1512	0.7302	-5.5363	0.6778
-5.3573	0.8095	-3.0954	0.7302	-5.5012	0.6776
-5.3211	0.8093	-3.0396	0.7302	-5.4662	0.6775
-5.2849	0.8091	-2.9837	0.7302	-5.4311	0.6773
-5.2487	0.8089	-2.9279	0.7302	-5.3961	0.6772
-5.2126	0.8086	-2.8721	0.7302	-5.3611	0.677
-5.1764	0.8084	-2.8163	0.7302	-5.326	0.6769
-5.1402	0.8081	-2.7605	0.7302	-5.291	0.6767
-5.104	0.8079	-2.7046	0.7302	-5.256	0.6766
-5.0678	0.8076	-2.6488	0.7302	-5.2209	0.6764
-5.0316	0.8074	-2.593	0.7302	-5.1859	0.6763
-4.9955	0.8071	-2.5372	0.7302	-5.1508	0.6761
-4.9593	0.8069	-2.4814	0.7302	-5.1158	0.6759
-4.9231	0.8066	-2.4256	0.7302	-5.0808	0.6758
-4.8869	0.8063	-2.3697	0.7302	-5.0457	0.6756
-4.8507	0.8061	-2.3139	0.7302	-5.0107	0.6754
-4.8145	0.8058	-2.2581	0.7302	-4.9756	0.6752
-4.7784	0.8055	-2.2023	0.7302	-4.9406	0.6751
-4.7422	0.8052	-2.1465	0.7302	-4.9056	0.6749
-4.706	0.8049	-2.0906	0.7302	-4.8705	0.6747
-4.6698	0.8047	-2.0348	0.7302	-4.8355	0.6745
-4.6336	0.8044	-1.979	0.7302	-4.8005	0.6743
-4.5974	0.8041	-1.9232	0.7302	-4.7654	0.6741
-4.5613	0.8037	-1.8674	0.7302	-4.7304	0.6739
-4.5251	0.8034	-1.8115	0.7302	-4.6953	0.6737
-4.4889	0.8031	-1.7557	0.7302	-4.6603	0.6737
-4.4527	0.8028	-1.6999	0.7302	-4.6253	0.6736
-4.4165	0.8025	-1.6441	0.7302	-4.5902	0.6736
-4.3803	0.8021	-1.5883	0.7302	-4.5552	0.6735
-4.3441	0.8018	-1.5324	0.7302	-4.5201	0.6735
-4.308	0.8015	-1.4766	0.7302	-4.4851	0.6734
-4.2718	0.8011	-1.4208	0.7302	-4.45	0.6734
-4.2356	0.8008	-1.365	0.7302	-4.415	0.6733
-4.1994	0.8004	-1.3092	0.7302	-4.3799	0.6733
-4.1632	0.8	-1.2533	0.7302	-4.3449	0.6732
-4.127	0.7996	-1.1975	0.7302	-4.3098	0.6732
-4.0909	0.7993	-1.1417	0.7302	-4.2748	0.6731
-4.0547	0.7989	-1.0859	0.7302	-4.2398	0.6731
-4.0185	0.7985	-1.0301	0.7302	-4.2047	0.673
-3.9823	0.7981	-0.9743	0.7302	-4.1697	0.673
-3.9461	0.7977	-0.9184	0.7302	-4.1346	0.6729
-3.9099	0.7975	-0.8626	0.7302	-4.0996	0.6728
-3.8737	0.7974	-0.8068	0.7302	-4.0645	0.6728
-3.8375	0.7973	-0.751	0.7302	-4.0295	0.6727
-3.8013	0.7972	-0.6952	0.7302	-3.9944	0.6727
-3.7651	0.7972	-0.6393	0.7302	-3.9594	0.6726
-3.7289	0.7971	-0.5835	0.7302	-3.9243	0.6725
-3.6927	0.797	-0.5277	0.7302	-3.8893	0.6725
-3.6566	0.7969	-0.4719	0.7302	-3.8542	0.6724
-3.6204	0.7968	-0.4161	0.7302	-3.8192	0.6723
-3.5842	0.7967	-0.3602	0.7302	-3.7842	0.6723
-3.548	0.7967	-0.3044	0.7302	-3.7491	0.6722
-3.5118	0.7966	-0.2486	0.7302	-3.7141	0.6721
-3.4756	0.7965	-0.1928	0.7302	-3.679	0.672
-3.4394	0.7964	-0.137	0.7302	-3.644	0.672
-3.4032	0.7963	-0.0811	0.7302	-3.6089	0.6719
-3.367	0.7962	-0.0253	0.7302	-3.5739	0.6718
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-3.2946	0.796	0.0863	0.7302	-3.5038	0.6717
-3.2584	0.7959	0.1421	0.7302	-3.4687	0.6716
-3.2222	0.7958	0.198	0.7302	-3.4337	0.6715
-3.186	0.7957	0.2538	0.7302	-3.3987	0.6714
-3.1498	0.7956	0.3096	0.7302	-3.3636	0.6713
-3.1136	0.7955	0.3654	0.7302	-3.3286	0.6712
-3.0774	0.7953	0.4212	0.7302	-3.2935	0.6711
-3.0412	0.7952	0.477	0.7302	-3.2585	0.671
-3.005	0.7951	0.5329	0.7302	-3.2234	0.671
-2.9688	0.795	0.5887	0.7302	-3.1884	0.6709
-2.9326	0.7949	0.6445	0.7302	-3.1533	0.6708
-2.8964	0.7947	0.7003	0.7302	-3.1183	0.6707
-2.8602	0.7946	0.7561	0.7302	-3.0832	0.6706
-2.824	0.7945	0.812	0.7302	-3.0482	0.6704
-2.7878	0.7943	0.8678	0.7302	-3.0132	0.6703
-2.7516	0.7942	0.9236	0.7302	-2.9781	0.6702
-2.7154	0.794	0.9794	0.7302	-2.9431	0.6701
-2.6792	0.7939	1.0352	0.7302	-2.908	0.67
-2.643	0.7937	1.0911	0.7302	-2.873	0.6699
-2.6068	0.7936	1.1469	0.7302	-2.8379	0.6698
-2.5706	0.7934	1.2027	0.7302	-2.8029	0.6696
-2.5344	0.7932	1.2585	0.7302	-2.7678	0.6695
-2.4982	0.793	1.3143	0.7302	-2.7328	0.6694
-2.462	0.7929	1.3702	0.7302	-2.6977	0.6692
-2.4258	0.7927	1.426	0.7302	-2.6627	0.6691
-2.3896	0.7925	1.4818	0.7302	-2.6277	0.669
-2.3534	0.7923	1.5376	0.7302	-2.5926	0.6688
-2.3172	0.7921	1.5934	0.7302	-2.5576	0.6687
-2.281	0.7919	1.6493	0.7302	-2.5225	0.6685
-2.2448	0.7917	1.7051	0.7302	-2.4875	0.6683
-2.2086	0.7914	1.7609	0.7302	-2.4524	0.6682
-2.1724	0.7912	1.8167	0.7302	-2.4174	0.668
-2.1362	0.791	1.8725	0.7302	-2.3823	0.6678
-2.1	0.7907	1.9283	0.7302	-2.3473	0.6677
-2.0638	0.7905	1.9842	0.7302	-2.3122	0.6675
-2.0276	0.7902	2.04	0.7302	-2.2772	0.6673
-1.9915	0.7899	2.0958	0.7302	-2.2422	0.6671
-1.9553	0.7896	2.1516	0.7302	-2.2071	0.6669
-1.9191	0.7893	2.2074	0.7302	-2.1721	0.6667
-1.8829	0.789	2.2633	0.7302	-2.137	0.6665
-1.8467	0.7887	2.3191	0.7302	-2.102	0.6662
-1.8105	0.7884	2.3749	0.7302	-2.0669	0.666
-1.7743	0.788	2.4307	0.7302	-2.0319	0.6658
-1.7381	0.7877	2.4865	0.7302	-1.9968	0.6655
-1.7019	0.7873	2.5424	0.7302	-1.9618	0.6653
-1.6657	0.7869	2.5982	0.7298	-1.9267	0.665
-1.6295	0.7865	2.654	0.7292	-1.8917	0.6647
-1.5933	0.7861	2.7099	0.7286	-1.8567	0.6645
-1.5571	0.7856	2.7657	0.728	-1.8216	0.6642
-1.5209	0.7852	2.8215	0.7274	-1.7866	0.6639
-1.4847	0.7847	2.8774	0.7268	-1.7515	0.6635
-1.4485	0.7842	2.9332	0.7263	-1.7165	0.6632
-1.4123	0.7836	2.9891	0.7258	-1.6814	0.6629
-1.3761	0.7831	3.0449	0.7253	-1.6464	0.6625
-1.3399	0.7825	3.1007	0.7248	-1.6113	0.6621
-1.3037	0.7818	3.1566	0.7244	-1.5763	0.6617
-1.2675	0.7812	3.2124	0.7239	-1.5412	0.6613
-1.2313	0.7804	3.2683	0.7235	-1.5062	0.6609
-1.1951	0.7797	3.3241	0.7231	-1.4712	0.6605
-1.1589	0.7789	3.3799	0.7227	-1.4361	0.66
-1.1227	0.778	3.4358	0.7223	-1.4011	0.6595
-1.0865	0.7771	3.4916	0.7219	-1.366	0.659
-1.0503	0.7762	3.5475	0.7216	-1.331	0.6584
-1.0141	0.7751	3.6033	0.7212	-1.2959	0.6578
-0.9779	0.774	3.6591	0.7209	-1.2609	0.6572
-0.9417	0.7728	3.715	0.7206	-1.2258	0.6566
-0.9055	0.7715	3.7708	0.7202	-1.1908	0.6561
-0.8693	0.7701	3.8267	0.7199	-1.1557	0.6561
-0.8331	0.7686	3.8825	0.7196	-1.1207	0.6561
-0.7969	0.7669	3.9383	0.7193	-1.0856	0.6561
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-0.7245	0.7639	4.05	0.7188	-1.0155	0.6561
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-0.5435	0.7639	4.3292	0.7175	-0.8403	0.6561
-0.5072	0.7639	4.3851	0.7173	-0.8052	0.6561
-0.471	0.7639	4.4409	0.717	-0.7702	0.6561
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-0.29	0.7639	4.7201	0.716	-0.5949	0.6561
-0.2538	0.7639	4.7759	0.7158	-0.5598	0.6561
-0.2175	0.7639	4.8318	0.7156	-0.5248	0.6561
-0.1813	0.7639	4.8876	0.7154	-0.4897	0.6561
-0.1451	0.7639	4.9435	0.7152	-0.4547	0.6561
-0.1089	0.7639	4.9993	0.715	-0.4196	0.6561
-0.0727	0.7639	5.0551	0.7148	-0.3846	0.6561
-0.0365	0.7639	5.111	0.7147	-0.3495	0.6561
-0.0003	0.7639	5.1668	0.7145	-0.3145	0.6561
0.0359	0.7639	5.2227	0.7143	-0.2794	0.6561
0.0722	0.7639	5.2785	0.7142	-0.2444	0.6561
0.1084	0.7639	5.3343	0.714	-0.2093	0.6561
0.1446	0.7639	5.3902	0.7139	-0.1743	0.6561
0.1808	0.7639	5.446	0.7137	-0.1392	0.6561
0.217	0.7639	5.5019	0.7136	-0.1042	0.6561
0.2532	0.7639	5.5577	0.7134	-0.0691	0.6561
0.2894	0.7639	5.6135	0.7133	-0.034	0.6561
0.3256	0.7639	5.6694	0.7131	0.001	0.6561
0.3619	0.7639	5.7252	0.713	0.0361	0.6561
0.3981	0.7639	5.7811	0.7129	0.0711	0.6561
0.4343	0.7639	5.8369	0.7127	0.1062	0.6561
0.4705	0.7639	5.8927	0.7126	0.1412	0.6561
0.5067	0.7639	5.9486	0.7125	0.1763	0.6561
0.5429	0.7639	6.0044	0.7123	0.2113	0.6561
0.5791	0.7639	6.0603	0.7122	0.2464	0.6561
0.6153	0.7639	6.1161	0.7121	0.2814	0.6561
0.6515	0.7639	6.1719	0.712	0.3165	0.6561
0.6878	0.7639	6.2278	0.7119	0.3515	0.6561
0.724	0.7639	6.2836	0.7117	0.3866	0.6561
0.7602	0.7639	6.3395	0.7116	0.4216	0.6561
0.7964	0.7639	6.3953	0.7115	0.4567	0.6561
0.8326	0.7639	6.4511	0.7114	0.4917	0.6561
0.8688	0.7639	6.507	0.7113	0.5268	0.6561
0.905	0.7639	6.5628	0.7112	0.5619	0.6561
0.9412	0.7639	6.6187	0.7111	0.5969	0.6561
0.9775	0.7639	6.6745	0.711	0.632	0.6561
1.0137	0.7639	6.7303	0.7109	0.667	0.6561
1.0499	0.7639	6.7862	0.7108	0.7021	0.6561
1.0861	0.7639	6.842	0.7107	0.7371	0.6561
1.1223	0.7639	6.8979	0.7106	0.7722	0.6561
1.1585	0.7639	6.9537	0.7105	0.8072	0.6561
1.1947	0.7639	7.0095	0.7104	0.8423	0.6561
1.2309	0.7639	7.0654	0.7103	0.8773	0.6561
1.2672	0.7639	7.1212	0.7102	0.9124	0.6561
1.3034	0.7639	7.1771	0.7102	0.9474	0.6561
1.3396	0.7639	7.2329	0.7101	0.9825	0.6561
1.3758	0.7639	7.2887	0.71	1.0175	0.6561
1.412	0.7639	7.3446	0.7099	1.0526	0.6561
1.4482	0.7639	7.4004	0.7098	1.0876	0.6561
1.4844	0.7639	7.4563	0.7097	1.1227	0.6561
1.5206	0.7639	7.5121	0.7097	1.1577	0.6561
1.5569	0.7639	7.5679	0.7096	1.1928	0.6561
1.5931	0.7639	7.6238	0.7095	1.2279	0.6561
1.6293	0.7639	7.6796	0.7094	1.2629	0.6561
1.6655	0.7639	7.7355	0.7094	1.298	0.6561
1.7017	0.7639	7.7913	0.7093	1.333	0.6561
1.7379	0.7639	7.8471	0.7092	1.3681	0.6561
1.7741	0.7639	7.903	0.7091	1.4031	0.6561
1.8103	0.7639	7.9588	0.7091	1.4382	0.6561
1.8466	0.7639	8.0147	0.709	1.4732	0.6561
1.8828	0.7639	8.0705	0.7089	1.5083	0.6561
1.919	0.7639	8.1263	0.7089	1.5433	0.6561
1.9552	0.7639	8.1822	0.7086	1.5784	0.6561
1.9914	0.7639	8.2381	0.7083	1.6134	0.6561
2.0276	0.7639	8.2939	0.7079	1.6485	0.6561
2.0638	0.7639	8.3498	0.7076	1.6835	0.6557
2.1	0.7639	8.4056	0.7073	1.7186	0.6551
2.1363	0.7639	8.4615	0.707	1.7537	0.6546
2.1725	0.7639	8.5174	0.7067	1.7887	0.6541
2.2087	0.7632	8.5733	0.7063	1.8238	0.6536
2.2449	0.7624	8.6291	0.7059	1.8588	0.6531
2.2811	0.7617	8.685	0.7055	1.8939	0.6527
2.3174	0.7611	8.7409	0.7051	1.929	0.6523
2.3536	0.7604	8.7968	0.7047	1.964	0.6518
2.3898	0.7598	8.8527	0.7043	1.9991	0.6514
2.4261	0.7591	8.9086	0.7039	2.0341	0.651
2.4623	0.7585	8.9644	0.7035	2.0692	0.6507
2.4985	0.758	9.0203	0.7031	2.1043	0.6503
2.5347	0.7574	9.0762	0.7027	2.1393	0.6499
2.571	0.7568	9.1321	0.7024	2.1744	0.6496
2.6072	0.7563	9.188	0.702	2.2094	0.6493
2.6434	0.7558	9.2439	0.7016	2.2445	0.649
2.6797	0.7553	9.2997	0.7013	2.2796	0.6486
2.7159	0.7548	9.3556	0.7009	2.3146	0.6483
2.7521	0.7543	9.4115	0.7006	2.3497	0.648
2.7883	0.7538	9.4674	0.7002	2.3847	0.6478
2.8246	0.7534	9.5233	0.6999	2.4198	0.6475
2.8608	0.7529	9.5792	0.6995	2.4549	0.6472
2.897	0.7525	9.635	0.6992	2.4899	0.647
2.9332	0.7521	9.6909	0.6989	2.525	0.6467
2.9695	0.7517	9.7468	0.6986	2.56	0.6465
3.0057	0.7513	9.8027	0.6982	2.5951	0.6462
3.0419	0.7509	9.8586	0.6979	2.6302	0.646
3.0782	0.7505	9.9145	0.6976	2.6652	0.6458
3.1144	0.7501	9.9701	0.6983	2.7003	0.6455
3.1506	0.7498	10.0261	0.6976	2.7353	0.6453
3.1868	0.7494	10.0821	0.697	2.7704	0.6451
3.2231	0.7491	10.138	0.6964	2.8055	0.6449
3.2593	0.7487	10.194	0.6958	2.8405	0.6447
3.2955	0.7484	10.2499	0.6951	2.8756	0.6445
3.3317	0.748	10.3059	0.6945	2.9106	0.6443
3.368	0.7477	10.3618	0.6939	2.9457	0.6441
3.4042	0.7474	10.4178	0.6933	2.9808	0.644
3.4404	0.7471	10.4737	0.6927	3.0158	0.6438
3.4767	0.7468	10.5297	0.6921	3.0509	0.6436
3.5129	0.7465	10.5856	0.6916	3.0859	0.6435
3.5491	0.7462	10.6416	0.691	3.121	0.6433
3.5853	0.7459	10.6975	0.6904	3.1561	0.6431
3.6216	0.7457	10.7535	0.6898	3.1911	0.643
3.6578	0.7454	10.8094	0.6891	3.2262	0.6428
3.694	0.7451	10.8654	0.6883	3.2612	0.6427
3.7302	0.7449	10.9215	0.6872	3.2963	0.6425
3.7665	0.7446	10.9775	0.686	3.3314	0.6424
3.8027	0.7444	11.0336	0.6849	3.3664	0.6422
3.8389	0.7441	11.0897	0.6839	3.4015	0.6421
3.8752	0.7439	11.1457	0.6828	3.4365	0.642
3.9114	0.7436	11.2018	0.6817	3.4716	0.6418
3.9476	0.7434	11.2578	0.6807	3.5067	0.6417
3.9838	0.7432	11.3139	0.6796	3.5417	0.6416
4.0201	0.743	11.37	0.6786	3.5768	0.6414
4.0563	0.7427	11.426	0.6776	3.6118	0.6413
4.0925	0.7425	11.4822	0.6762	3.6469	0.6412
4.1287	0.7423	11.5383	0.6748	3.682	0.6411
4.165	0.7421	11.5944	0.6735	3.717	0.641
4.2012	0.7419	11.6506	0.6722	3.7521	0.6408
4.2374	0.7417	11.7067	0.6709	3.7871	0.6407
4.2737	0.7415	11.7629	0.6696	3.8222	0.6406
4.3099	0.7413	11.819	0.6683	3.8573	0.6405
4.3461	0.7411	11.8752	0.667	3.8923	0.6403
4.3823	0.7409	11.9313	0.6657	3.9274	0.6399
4.4186	0.7407	11.9875	0.6642	3.9625	0.6395
4.4548	0.7406	12.0437	0.6628	3.9975	0.6392
4.491	0.7404	12.0998	0.6613	4.0326	0.6388
4.5272	0.7402	12.156	0.6598	4.0677	0.6385
4.5635	0.74	12.2122	0.6583	4.1027	0.6381
4.5997	0.7398	12.2684	0.6568	4.1378	0.6378
4.6359	0.7393	12.3246	0.6554	4.1729	0.6374
4.6722	0.7387	12.3807	0.6539	4.2079	0.6371
4.7084	0.7382	12.4369	0.6524	4.243	0.6368
4.7447	0.7377	12.4931	0.6509	4.2781	0.6364
4.7809	0.7371	12.5493	0.6494	4.3131	0.6361
4.8172	0.7366	12.6055	0.6479	4.3482	0.6358
4.8534	0.7361	12.6617	0.6463	4.3833	0.6355
4.8896	0.7356	12.7179	0.6448	4.4183	0.6352
4.9259	0.7351	12.7741	0.6433	4.4534	0.6349
4.9621	0.7346	12.8303	0.6419	4.4885	0.6346
4.9984	0.7342	12.8864	0.6404	4.5235	0.6343
5.0346	0.7337	12.9426	0.6389	4.5586	0.634
5.0709	0.7332	12.9988	0.6375	4.5937	0.6338
5.1071	0.7328	13.055	0.6361	4.6288	0.6335
5.1434	0.7323	13.1112	0.6346	4.6638	0.6332
5.1796	0.7319	13.1674	0.6332	4.6989	0.633
5.2158	0.7314	13.2236	0.6318	4.734	0.6327
5.2521	0.731	13.2798	0.6305	4.769	0.6324
5.2883	0.7305	13.336	0.6291	4.8041	0.6322
5.3246	0.73	13.3922	0.6277	4.8392	0.6319
5.3608	0.7295	13.4484	0.6264	4.8742	0.6317
5.3971	0.729	13.5045	0.625	4.9093	0.6314
5.4333	0.7286	13.5607	0.6237	4.9444	0.6312
5.4696	0.7281	13.6169	0.6224	4.9794	0.631
5.5058	0.7277	13.6731	0.6211	5.0145	0.6307
5.5421	0.7272	13.7293	0.6198	5.0496	0.6305
5.5783	0.7268	13.7855	0.6185	5.0846	0.6303
5.6146	0.7263	13.8417	0.6173	5.1197	0.63
5.6508	0.7259	13.8979	0.616	5.1548	0.6298
5.6871	0.7255	13.9541	0.6147	5.1898	0.6296
5.7233	0.7251	14.0103	0.6135	5.2249	0.6294
5.7596	0.7246	14.0664	0.6123	5.26	0.6292
5.7958	0.7242	14.1226	0.6111	5.295	0.629
5.8321	0.7238	14.1788	0.6098	5.3301	0.6288
5.8683	0.7234	14.235	0.6086	5.3652	0.6285
5.9046	0.723	14.2912	0.6074	5.4003	0.6282
5.9408	0.7227	14.3474	0.6063	5.4353	0.6279
5.9771	0.7223	14.4036	0.6051	5.4704	0.6277
6.0133	0.7219	14.4598	0.6039	5.5055	0.6274
6.0496	0.7215	14.516	0.6028	5.5406	0.627
6.0858	0.7211	14.5722	0.6016	5.5756	0.6265
6.1221	0.7208	14.6284	0.6005	5.6107	0.6261
6.1583	0.7204	14.6845	0.5993	5.6458	0.6256
6.1946	0.7201	14.7407	0.5982	5.6809	0.6251
6.2308	0.7197	14.7969	0.5971	5.716	0.6246
6.2671	0.7194	14.8531	0.596	5.7511	0.6242
6.3033	0.719	14.9093	0.5949	5.7862	0.6237
6.3396	0.7187	14.9655	0.5938	5.8212	0.6233
6.3758	0.7183	15.0217	0.5927	5.8563	0.6228
6.4121	0.718	15.0779	0.5917	5.8914	0.6224
6.4483	0.7177	15.1341	0.5906	5.9265	0.622
6.4846	0.7172	15.1903	0.5896	5.9616	0.6215
6.5209	0.7166	15.2464	0.5885	5.9967	0.6211
6.5571	0.716	15.3026	0.5875	6.0318	0.6207
6.5934	0.7154	15.3588	0.5864	6.0668	0.6203
6.6297	0.7148	15.415	0.5854	6.1019	0.6199
6.6659	0.7142	15.4712	0.5844	6.137	0.6195
6.7022	0.7136	15.5274	0.5834	6.1721	0.6191
6.7385	0.7131	15.5836	0.5824	6.2072	0.6187
6.7747	0.7125	15.6398	0.5814	6.2423	0.6183
6.811	0.7119	15.696	0.5804	6.2773	0.6179
6.8473	0.7114	15.7522	0.5794	6.3124	0.6175
6.8835	0.7108	15.8084	0.5784	6.3475	0.6172
6.9198	0.7103	15.8645	0.5775	6.3826	0.6168
6.9561	0.7098	15.9207	0.5765	6.4177	0.6164
6.9924	0.7092	15.9769	0.5756	6.4528	0.6161
7.0286	0.7087	16.0331	0.5746	6.4879	0.6157
7.0649	0.7082	16.0893	0.5737	6.5229	0.6154
7.1012	0.7077	16.1455	0.5727	6.558	0.615
7.1374	0.7071	16.2017	0.5718	6.5931	0.6147
7.1737	0.7066	16.2579	0.5709	6.6282	0.6143
7.21	0.7061	16.3141	0.57	6.6633	0.614
7.2462	0.7056	16.3703	0.5691	6.6984	0.6136
7.2825	0.7052	16.4265	0.5682	6.7335	0.6131
7.3188	0.7047	16.4826	0.5673	6.7686	0.6126
7.355	0.7042	16.5388	0.5664	6.8037	0.6121
7.3913	0.7037	16.595	0.5655	6.8387	0.6115
7.4276	0.7032	16.6512	0.5646	6.8738	0.611
7.4638	0.7028	16.7074	0.5637	6.9089	0.6105
7.5001	0.7023	16.7636	0.5629	6.944	0.61
7.5364	0.7019	16.8198	0.562	6.9791	0.6095
7.5726	0.7014	16.876	0.5612	7.0142	0.609
7.6089	0.701	16.9322	0.5603	7.0493	0.6085
7.6452	0.7005	16.9884	0.5595	7.0844	0.6081
7.6814	0.7001	17.0445	0.5586	7.1195	0.6076
7.7177	0.6996	17.1007	0.5578	7.1546	0.6071
7.754	0.6992	17.1569	0.557	7.1897	0.6066
7.7902	0.6988	17.2131	0.5561	7.2248	0.6062
7.8265	0.6982	17.2693	0.5553	7.2599	0.6057
7.8628	0.6974	17.3255	0.5545	7.295	0.6053
7.8991	0.6966	17.3817	0.5537	7.3301	0.6048
7.9355	0.6958	17.4379	0.5529	7.3652	0.6044
7.9718	0.6951	17.4941	0.5521	7.4003	0.6037
8.0081	0.6943	17.5503	0.5513	7.4354	0.6031
8.0444	0.6935	17.6065	0.5505	7.4705	0.6025
8.0807	0.6928	17.6626	0.5498	7.5057	0.6018
8.117	0.692	17.7188	0.549	7.5408	0.6011
8.1533	0.6913	17.775	0.5482	7.5759	0.6003
8.1896	0.6906	17.8312	0.5474	7.6111	0.5995
8.2259	0.6898	17.8874	0.5467	7.6462	0.5988
8.2622	0.6891	17.9436	0.5459	7.6814	0.598
8.2986	0.6884	17.9998	0.5452	7.7165	0.5973
8.3349	0.6877	18.056	0.5444	7.7516	0.5965
8.3712	0.687	18.1122	0.5437	7.7868	0.5958
8.4075	0.6863	18.1684	0.543	7.8219	0.5951
8.4438	0.6856	18.2245	0.5422	7.857	0.5944
8.4801	0.6849	18.2807	0.5415	7.8922	0.5937
8.5164	0.6843	18.3369	0.5408	7.9273	0.593
8.5527	0.6836	18.3931	0.54	7.9625	0.5923
8.589	0.6829	18.4493	0.5393	7.9976	0.5916
8.6254	0.6823	18.5055	0.5386	8.0327	0.5908
8.6617	0.6816	18.5617	0.5379	8.0679	0.5898
8.698	0.6808	18.6179	0.5372	8.1031	0.5888
8.7343	0.6799	18.6741	0.5365	8.1383	0.5877
8.7707	0.6791	18.7303	0.5358	8.1735	0.5867
8.807	0.6781	18.7865	0.5351	8.2087	0.5857
8.8434	0.6771	18.8426	0.5344	8.2439	0.5847
8.8798	0.6761	18.8988	0.5338	8.2791	0.5837
8.9161	0.6752	18.955	0.5331	8.3143	0.5828
8.9525	0.6742	19.0112	0.5324	8.3495	0.5817
8.9889	0.6732	19.0674	0.5317	8.3847	0.5805
9.0252	0.6723	19.1236	0.5311	8.42	0.5793
9.0616	0.6713	19.1798	0.5304	8.4552	0.5781
9.098	0.6704	19.236	0.5298	8.4905	0.5768
9.1343	0.6694	19.2922	0.5291	8.5257	0.5756
9.1707	0.6683	19.3484	0.5285	8.561	0.5743
9.2072	0.6671	19.4046	0.5278	8.5962	0.5731
9.2436	0.6659	19.4607	0.5272	8.6315	0.5718
9.28	0.6647	19.5169	0.5265	8.6668	0.5706
9.3164	0.6635	19.5731	0.5259	8.702	0.5694
9.3529	0.6623	19.6293	0.5253	8.7373	0.5682
9.3893	0.6611	19.6855	0.5246	8.7725	0.567
9.4257	0.6599	19.7417	0.524	8.8078	0.5658
9.4621	0.6587	19.7979	0.5234	8.843	0.5646
9.4986	0.6576	19.8541	0.5228	8.8783	0.5635
9.535	0.6564	19.9103	0.5222	8.9136	0.5623
9.5714	0.6553	19.9665	0.5215	8.9488	0.5612
9.6078	0.6542			8.9841	0.56
9.6443	0.653			9.0193	0.5589
9.6807	0.6519			9.0546	0.5578
9.7171	0.6508			9.0898	0.5567
9.7535	0.6497			9.1251	0.5556
9.79	0.6486			9.1604	0.5545
9.8264	0.6476			9.1956	0.5534
9.8628	0.6465			9.2309	0.5523
9.8992	0.6454			9.2661	0.5512
9.9357	0.6444			9.3014	0.5502
9.9721	0.6433			9.3366	0.5491
10.0085	0.6423			9.3719	0.5481
10.0449	0.6412			9.4072	0.547
10.0814	0.6402			9.4424	0.546
10.1178	0.6392			9.4777	0.545
10.1542	0.6382			9.5129	0.544
10.1906	0.6372			9.5482	0.543
10.2271	0.6362			9.5835	0.542
10.2635	0.6352			9.6187	0.541
10.2999	0.6342			9.654	0.54
10.3363	0.6332			9.6892	0.539
10.3728	0.6323			9.7245	0.538
10.4092	0.6313			9.7597	0.5371
10.4456	0.6303			9.795	0.5361
10.482	0.6294			9.8303	0.5352
10.5185	0.6285			9.8655	0.5342
10.5549	0.6275			9.9008	0.5333
10.5913	0.6266			9.936	0.5323
10.6277	0.6257			9.9713	0.5314
10.6642	0.6247			10.0065	0.5305
10.7006	0.6238			10.0418	0.5296
10.737	0.6229			10.0771	0.5287
10.7734	0.622			10.1123	0.5278
10.8099	0.6211			10.1476	0.5269
10.8463	0.6203			10.1828	0.526
10.8827	0.6194			10.2181	0.5251
10.9191	0.6185			10.2533	0.5243
10.9556	0.6176			10.2886	0.5234
10.992	0.6168			10.3239	0.5225
11.0284	0.6159			10.3591	0.5217
11.0648	0.6151			10.3944	0.5208
11.1013	0.6142			10.4296	0.52
11.1377	0.6134			10.4649	0.5191
11.1741	0.6125			10.5001	0.5183
11.2105	0.6117			10.5354	0.5175
11.247	0.6109			10.5707	0.5167
11.2834	0.6101			10.6059	0.5158
11.3198	0.6092			10.6412	0.515
11.3562	0.6084			10.6764	0.5142
11.3927	0.6076			10.7117	0.5134
11.4291	0.6068			10.747	0.5126
11.4655	0.606			10.7822	0.5118
11.5019	0.6053			10.8175	0.5111
11.5383	0.6045			10.8527	0.5103
11.5748	0.6037			10.888	0.5095
11.6112	0.6029			10.9232	0.5087
11.6476	0.6021			10.9585	0.508
11.684	0.6014			10.9938	0.5072
11.7205	0.6006			11.029	0.5064
11.7569	0.5999			11.0643	0.5057
11.7933	0.5991			11.0995	0.505
11.8297	0.5984			11.1348	0.5042
11.8662	0.5976			11.17	0.5035
11.9026	0.5969			11.2053	0.5027
11.939	0.5962			11.2406	0.502
11.9754	0.5954			11.2758	0.5013
12.0119	0.5947			11.3111	0.5006
12.0483	0.594			11.3463	0.4999
12.0847	0.5933			11.3816	0.4992
12.1211	0.5926			11.4168	0.4985
12.1576	0.5919			11.4521	0.4978
12.194	0.5912			11.4874	0.4971
12.2304	0.5905			11.5226	0.4964
12.2668	0.5898			11.5579	0.4957
12.3033	0.5891			11.5931	0.495
12.3397	0.5884			11.6284	0.4943
12.3761	0.5877			11.6637	0.4936
12.4125	0.587			11.6989	0.493
12.449	0.5864			11.7342	0.4923
12.4854	0.5857			11.7694	0.4916
12.5218	0.585			11.8047	0.491
12.5582	0.5844			11.8399	0.4903
12.5947	0.5837			11.8752	0.4897
12.6311	0.5831			11.9105	0.489
12.6675	0.5824			11.9457	0.4884
12.7039	0.5818			11.981	0.4877
12.7404	0.5811			12.0162	0.4871
12.7768	0.5805			12.0515	0.4865
12.8132	0.5799			12.0867	0.4858
12.8496	0.5792			12.122	0.4852
12.8861	0.5786			12.1573	0.4846
12.9225	0.578			12.1925	0.484
12.9589	0.5774			12.2278	0.4834
12.9953	0.5767			12.263	0.4828
13.0318	0.5761			12.2983	0.4822
13.0682	0.5755			12.3335	0.4815
13.1046	0.5749			12.3688	0.4809
13.141	0.5743			12.4041	0.4804
13.1775	0.5737			12.4393	0.4798
13.2139	0.5731			12.4746	0.4792
13.2503	0.5725			12.5098	0.4786
13.2867	0.5719			12.5451	0.478
13.3232	0.5713			12.5803	0.4774
13.3596	0.5707			12.6156	0.4768
13.396	0.5702			12.6509	0.4763
13.4324	0.5696			12.6861	0.4757
13.4689	0.569			12.7214	0.4751
13.5053	0.5684			12.7566	0.4746
13.5417	0.5679			12.7919	0.474
13.5781	0.5673			12.8272	0.4735
13.6146	0.5667			12.8624	0.4729
13.651	0.5662			12.8977	0.4723
13.6874	0.5656			12.9329	0.4718
13.7238	0.5651			12.9682	0.4712
13.7603	0.5645			13.0034	0.4707
13.7967	0.564			13.0387	0.4702
13.8331	0.5634			13.074	0.4696
13.8695	0.5629			13.1092	0.4691
13.906	0.5624			13.1445	0.4686
13.9424	0.5618			13.1797	0.468
13.9788	0.5613			13.215	0.4675
14.0152	0.5608			13.2502	0.467
14.0517	0.5602			13.2855	0.4665
14.0881	0.5597			13.3208	0.466
14.1245	0.5592			13.356	0.4654
14.1609	0.5587			13.3913	0.4649
14.1974	0.5581			13.4265	0.4644
14.2338	0.5576			13.4618	0.4639
14.2702	0.5571			13.497	0.4634
14.3066	0.5566			13.5323	0.4629
14.3431	0.5561			13.5676	0.4624
14.3795	0.5556			13.6028	0.4619
14.4159	0.5551			13.6381	0.4614
14.4523	0.5546			13.6733	0.4609
14.4888	0.5541			13.7086	0.4604
14.5252	0.5536			13.7439	0.46
14.5616	0.5531			13.7791	0.4595
14.598	0.5526			13.8144	0.459
14.6345	0.5521			13.8496	0.4585
14.6709	0.5517			13.8849	0.458
14.7073	0.5512			13.9201	0.4576
14.7437	0.5507			13.9554	0.4571
14.7802	0.5502			13.9907	0.4566
14.8166	0.5497			14.0259	0.4562
14.853	0.5493			14.0612	0.4557
14.8894	0.5488			14.0964	0.4552
14.9259	0.5483			14.1317	0.4548
14.9623	0.5479			14.1669	0.4543
14.9987	0.5474			14.2022	0.4539
15.0351	0.5469			14.2375	0.4534
15.0716	0.5465			14.2727	0.453
15.108	0.546			14.308	0.4525
15.1444	0.5456			14.3432	0.4521
15.1808	0.5451			14.3785	0.4516
15.2173	0.5447			14.4137	0.4512
15.2537	0.5442			14.449	0.4507
15.2901	0.5438			14.4843	0.4503
15.3265	0.5433			14.5195	0.4499
15.363	0.5429			14.5548	0.4494
15.3994	0.5424			14.59	0.449
15.4358	0.542			14.6253	0.4486
15.4722	0.5416			14.6605	0.4481
15.5087	0.5411			14.6958	0.4477
15.5451	0.5407			14.7311	0.4473
15.5815	0.5403			14.7663	0.4469
15.6179	0.5399			14.8016	0.4465
15.6544	0.5394			14.8368	0.446
15.6908	0.539			14.8721	0.4456
15.7272	0.5386			14.9074	0.4452
15.7636	0.5382			14.9426	0.4448
15.8001	0.5377			14.9779	0.4444
15.8365	0.5373			15.0131	0.444
15.8729	0.5369			15.0484	0.4436
15.9093	0.5365			15.0836	0.4432
15.9458	0.5361			15.1189	0.4428
15.9822	0.5357			15.1542	0.4424
16.0186	0.5353			15.1894	0.442
16.055	0.5349			15.2247	0.4416
16.0915	0.5345			15.2599	0.4412
16.1279	0.5341			15.2952	0.4408
16.1643	0.5337			15.3304	0.4404
16.2007	0.5333			15.3657	0.44
16.2372	0.5329			15.401	0.4396
16.2736	0.5325			15.4362	0.4392
16.31	0.5321			15.4715	0.4389
16.3464	0.5317			15.5067	0.4385
16.3829	0.5313			15.542	0.4381
16.4193	0.5309			15.5772	0.4377
16.4557	0.5306			15.6125	0.4373
16.4921	0.5302			15.6478	0.437
16.5286	0.5298			15.683	0.4366
16.565	0.5294			15.7183	0.4362
16.6014	0.529			15.7535	0.4359
16.6378	0.5287			15.7888	0.4355
16.6743	0.5283			15.824	0.4351
16.7107	0.5279			15.8593	0.4348
16.7471	0.5275			15.8946	0.4344
16.7835	0.5272			15.9298	0.434
16.82	0.5268			15.9651	0.4337
16.8564	0.5264			16.0003	0.4333
16.8928	0.5261			16.0356	0.433
16.9292	0.5257			16.0709	0.4326
16.9657	0.5253			16.1061	0.4322
17.0021	0.525			16.1414	0.4319
17.0385	0.5246			16.1766	0.4315
17.0749	0.5243			16.2119	0.4312
17.1114	0.5239			16.2471	0.4308
17.1478	0.5236			16.2824	0.4305
17.1842	0.5232			16.3177	0.4302
17.2206	0.5228			16.3529	0.4298
17.2571	0.5225			16.3882	0.4295
17.2935	0.5221			16.4234	0.4291
17.3299	0.5218			16.4587	0.4288
17.3663	0.5215			16.4939	0.4285
17.4028	0.5211			16.5292	0.4281
17.4392	0.5208			16.5645	0.4278
17.4756	0.5204			16.5997	0.4275
17.512	0.5201			16.635	0.4271
17.5485	0.5198			16.6702	0.4268
17.5849	0.5194			16.7055	0.4265
17.6213	0.5191			16.7407	0.4261
17.6577	0.5187			16.776	0.4258
17.6942	0.5184			16.8113	0.4255
17.7306	0.5181			16.8465	0.4252
17.767	0.5178			16.8818	0.4248
17.8034	0.5174			16.917	0.4245
17.8399	0.5171			16.9523	0.4242
17.8763	0.5168			16.9876	0.4239
17.9127	0.5164			17.0228	0.4236
17.9491	0.5161			17.0581	0.4233
17.9856	0.5158			17.0933	0.4229
18.022	0.5155			17.1286	0.4226
18.0584	0.5152			17.1638	0.4223
18.0948	0.5148			17.1991	0.422
18.1313	0.5145			17.2344	0.4217
18.1677	0.5142			17.2696	0.4214
18.2041	0.5139			17.3049	0.4211
18.2405	0.5136			17.3401	0.4208
18.277	0.5133			17.3754	0.4205
18.3134	0.513			17.4106	0.4202
18.3498	0.5126			17.4459	0.4199
18.3862	0.5123			17.4812	0.4196
18.4227	0.512			17.5164	0.4193
18.4591	0.5117			17.5517	0.419
18.4955	0.5114			17.5869	0.4187
18.5319	0.5111			17.6222	0.4184
18.5684	0.5108			17.6574	0.4181
18.6048	0.5105			17.6927	0.4178
18.6412	0.5102			17.728	0.4175
18.6776	0.5099			17.7632	0.4172
18.7141	0.5096			17.7985	0.4169
18.7505	0.5093			17.8337	0.4166
18.7869	0.509			17.869	0.4163
18.8233	0.5087			17.9042	0.4161
18.8598	0.5084			17.9395	0.4158
18.8962	0.5082			17.9748	0.4155
18.9326	0.5079			18.01	0.4152
18.969	0.5076			18.0453	0.4149
19.0055	0.5073			18.0805	0.4146
19.0419	0.507			18.1158	0.4144
19.0783	0.5067			18.1511	0.4141
19.1147	0.5064			18.1863	0.4138
19.1512	0.5061			18.2216	0.4135
19.1876	0.5059			18.2568	0.4133
19.224	0.5056			18.2921	0.413
19.2604	0.5053			18.3273	0.4127
19.2969	0.505			18.3626	0.4124
19.3333	0.5047			18.3979	0.4122
19.3697	0.5045			18.4331	0.4119
19.4061	0.5042			18.4684	0.4116
19.4426	0.5039			18.5036	0.4114
19.479	0.5036			18.5389	0.4111
19.5154	0.5034			18.5741	0.4108
19.5518	0.5031			18.6094	0.4106
19.5883	0.5028			18.6447	0.4103
19.6247	0.5025			18.6799	0.41
19.6611	0.5023			18.7152	0.4098
19.6975	0.502			18.7504	0.4095
19.734	0.5017			18.7857	0.4093
19.7704	0.5015			18.8209	0.409
19.8068	0.5012			18.8562	0.4087
19.8432	0.5009			18.8915	0.4085
19.8796	0.5007			18.9267	0.4082
19.9161	0.5004			18.962	0.408
19.9525	0.5002			18.9972	0.4077
19.9889	0.4999			19.0325	0.4075
				19.0678	0.4072
				19.103	0.407
				19.1383	0.4067
				19.1735	0.4065
				19.2088	0.4062
				19.244	0.406
				19.2793	0.4057
				19.3146	0.4055
				19.3498	0.4052
				19.3851	0.405
				19.4203	0.4047
				19.4556	0.4045
				19.4908	0.4043
				19.5261	0.404
				19.5614	0.4038
				19.5966	0.4035
				19.6319	0.4033
				19.6671	0.4031
				19.7024	0.4028
				19.7376	0.4026
				19.7729	0.4024
				19.8082	0.4021
				19.8434	0.4019
				19.8787	0.4017
				19.9139	0.4014
				19.9492	0.4012
				19.9844	0.401

Data for Figure 6 (Bottom Right Panel)

Baseline Monetary Policy Rule	More aggressive on inflation	More aggressive on output gap
0.3571	0.3052	0.2711

Figure 7. Effects of Foreign Consumption Shock Against the Backdrop of Domestic Recession Alternative Trade Elasticities*

$^{*}$ The baseline trade elasticity is 1.1; the high trade elasticity is 1.5; the low trade elasticity is 0.75.
$^{**}$ The spillover effects are defined as the ratio of the response of home GDP (in deviation from the path implied by the initial baseline recession) to the response of foreign GDP (also in deviation from its initial path). The measure shown is an average of the spillover effects over the first four quarters.

Data for Figure 7 (Top Panel)

Average percent change in foreign GDP	Baseline Trade Elasticity	Average percent change in foreign GDP	High Trade Elasticity	Average percent change in foreign GDP	Low Trade Elasticity
-9.4813	13	-9.4898	16	-9.4545	12
-9.4451	13	-9.4595	16	-9.3911	12
-9.409	13	-9.4292	16	-9.3278	12
-9.3728	13	-9.3989	16	-9.2645	12
-9.3366	13	-9.3685	16	-9.2011	12
-9.3005	13	-9.3382	16	-9.1378	12
-9.2643	13	-9.3079	16	-9.0745	12
-9.2281	13	-9.2775	16	-9.0111	12
-9.192	13	-9.2472	15	-8.9478	12
-9.1558	13	-9.2169	15	-8.8845	12
-9.1196	13	-9.1865	15	-8.8211	12
-9.0834	13	-9.1562	15	-8.7578	12
-9.0473	13	-9.1258	15	-8.6945	12
-9.0111	13	-9.0955	15	-8.6311	12
-8.9749	13	-9.0651	15	-8.5678	12
-8.9388	13	-9.0348	15	-8.5044	12
-8.9026	13	-9.0044	15	-8.4411	12
-8.8664	13	-8.9741	15	-8.3778	12
-8.8303	13	-8.9437	15	-8.3144	12
-8.7941	13	-8.9133	15	-8.2511	12
-8.7579	13	-8.883	15	-8.1878	12
-8.7217	13	-8.8526	15	-8.1244	12
-8.6856	13	-8.8223	15	-8.0611	12
-8.6494	13	-8.7919	15	-7.9978	12
-8.6132	13	-8.7616	15	-7.9344	12
-8.5771	13	-8.7312	15	-7.8711	12
-8.5409	13	-8.7009	15	-7.8077	12
-8.5047	13	-8.6705	15	-7.7444	12
-8.4686	13	-8.6402	15	-7.6811	12
-8.4324	13	-8.6098	15	-7.6177	12
-8.3962	13	-8.5795	15	-7.5544	12
-8.36	13	-8.5491	15	-7.4911	12
-8.3239	13	-8.5188	15	-7.4277	12
-8.2877	13	-8.4884	15	-7.3644	12
-8.2515	13	-8.4581	15	-7.3011	12
-8.2154	13	-8.4277	15	-7.2377	12
-8.1792	13	-8.3974	15	-7.1744	12
-8.143	13	-8.367	15	-7.111	12
-8.1069	13	-8.3367	15	-7.0477	11
-8.0707	13	-8.3063	15	-6.9844	11
-8.0345	13	-8.276	14	-6.921	11
-7.9983	13	-8.2456	14	-6.8577	11
-7.9622	13	-8.2152	14	-6.7943	11
-7.926	13	-8.1848	14	-6.731	11
-7.8898	13	-8.1545	14	-6.6677	11
-7.8537	13	-8.1241	14	-6.6043	11
-7.8175	13	-8.0937	14	-6.541	11
-7.7813	13	-8.0633	14	-6.4776	11
-7.7452	13	-8.033	14	-6.4143	11
-7.709	13	-8.0026	14	-6.3509	11
-7.6728	13	-7.9722	14	-6.2876	11
-7.6366	13	-7.9418	14	-6.2243	11
-7.6005	13	-7.9115	14	-6.1609	11
-7.5643	13	-7.8811	14	-6.0976	11
-7.5281	13	-7.8507	14	-6.0342	11
-7.492	13	-7.8203	14	-5.9709	11
-7.4558	13	-7.7899	14	-5.9076	11
-7.4196	13	-7.7596	14	-5.8442	11
-7.3835	13	-7.7292	14	-5.7809	11
-7.3473	13	-7.6988	14	-5.7175	11
-7.3111	13	-7.6684	14	-5.6542	11
-7.2749	13	-7.6381	14	-5.5908	11
-7.2388	13	-7.6077	14	-5.5275	11
-7.2026	13	-7.5773	14	-5.4642	11
-7.1664	13	-7.5469	14	-5.4008	11
-7.1303	13	-7.5166	14	-5.3375	11
-7.0941	13	-7.4862	14	-5.2741	11
-7.0579	13	-7.4558	14	-5.2108	11
-7.0217	12	-7.4254	14	-5.1474	11
-6.9856	12	-7.3951	14	-5.0841	11
-6.9494	12	-7.3647	14	-5.0208	11
-6.9132	12	-7.3343	14	-4.9574	11
-6.877	12	-7.3039	14	-4.8941	11
-6.8408	12	-7.2736	14	-4.8307	11
-6.8046	12	-7.2432	14	-4.7674	11
-6.7685	12	-7.2128	14	-4.7041	11
-6.7323	12	-7.1824	14	-4.6407	11
-6.6961	12	-7.1521	14	-4.5774	11
-6.6599	12	-7.1217	14	-4.514	11
-6.6237	12	-7.0913	14	-4.4507	11
-6.5875	12	-7.0609	14	-4.3873	11
-6.5514	12	-7.0306	14	-4.324	11
-6.5152	12	-7.0002	14	-4.2607	11
-6.479	12	-6.9698	14	-4.1973	11
-6.4428	12	-6.9394	14	-4.134	11
-6.4066	12	-6.9091	14	-4.0706	11
-6.3704	12	-6.8787	14	-4.0073	11
-6.3343	12	-6.8483	14	-3.944	11
-6.2981	12	-6.8179	14	-3.8806	11
-6.2619	12	-6.7875	13	-3.8173	11
-6.2257	12	-6.7571	13	-3.7539	11
-6.1895	12	-6.7267	13	-3.6906	11
-6.1533	12	-6.6963	13	-3.6272	11
-6.1172	12	-6.6659	13	-3.5639	11
-6.081	12	-6.6355	13	-3.5006	11
-6.0448	12	-6.6051	13	-3.4372	11
-6.0086	12	-6.5747	13	-3.3739	11
-5.9724	12	-6.5443	13	-3.3105	11
-5.9362	12	-6.5139	13	-3.2472	11
-5.9001	12	-6.4835	13	-3.1838	11
-5.8639	12	-6.4531	13	-3.1205	11
-5.8277	12	-6.4227	13	-3.0572	11
-5.7915	12	-6.3923	13	-2.9938	11
-5.7553	12	-6.3619	13	-2.9305	11
-5.7191	12	-6.3315	13	-2.8671	11
-5.6829	12	-6.3011	13	-2.8038	11
-5.6468	12	-6.2707	13	-2.7405	11
-5.6106	12	-6.2403	13	-2.6771	11
-5.5744	12	-6.2099	13	-2.6138	11
-5.5382	12	-6.1795	13	-2.5504	11
-5.502	12	-6.1491	13	-2.4871	11
-5.4658	12	-6.1187	13	-2.4237	11
-5.4297	12	-6.0883	13	-2.3604	11
-5.3935	12	-6.0579	13	-2.2971	11
-5.3573	12	-6.0275	13	-2.2337	11
-5.3211	12	-5.9971	13	-2.1704	11
-5.2849	12	-5.9667	13	-2.107	11
-5.2487	12	-5.9363	13	-2.0437	11
-5.2126	12	-5.9059	13	-1.9804	11
-5.1764	12	-5.8755	13	-1.917	11
-5.1402	12	-5.8451	13	-1.8537	11
-5.104	12	-5.8147	13	-1.7903	11
-5.0678	12	-5.7843	13	-1.727	11
-5.0316	12	-5.7539	13	-1.6636	11
-4.9955	12	-5.7235	13	-1.6003	11
-4.9593	12	-5.6931	13	-1.537	11
-4.9231	12	-5.6627	13	-1.4736	11
-4.8869	12	-5.6323	13	-1.4103	11
-4.8507	12	-5.6019	13	-1.3469	11
-4.8145	12	-5.5715	13	-1.2836	11
-4.7784	12	-5.5411	13	-1.2202	11
-4.7422	12	-5.5107	13	-1.1569	11
-4.706	12	-5.4803	13	-1.0936	11
-4.6698	12	-5.4499	13	-1.0302	11
-4.6336	12	-5.4195	13	-0.9669	11
-4.5974	12	-5.3891	13	-0.9035	11
-4.5613	12	-5.3587	13	-0.8402	11
-4.5251	12	-5.3283	13	-0.7769	11
-4.4889	12	-5.2979	13	-0.7135	11
-4.4527	12	-5.2675	13	-0.6502	11
-4.4165	12	-5.2371	13	-0.5868	11
-4.3803	12	-5.2067	13	-0.5235	11
-4.3441	12	-5.1763	13	-0.4601	10
-4.308	12	-5.1459	13	-0.3968	10
-4.2718	12	-5.1155	13	-0.3334	10
-4.2356	12	-5.0851	13	-0.2701	10
-4.1994	12	-5.0547	13	-0.2068	10
-4.1632	12	-5.0243	13	-0.1434	10
-4.127	12	-4.9939	13	-0.0801	10
-4.0909	12	-4.9635	13	-0.0167	10
-4.0547	12	-4.9331	13	0.0466	10
-4.0185	12	-4.9027	12	0.11	10
-3.9823	12	-4.8722	12	0.1733	10
-3.9461	12	-4.8418	12	0.2367	10
-3.9099	11	-4.8114	12	0.3	10
-3.8737	11	-4.7809	12	0.3634	10
-3.8375	11	-4.7505	12	0.4267	10
-3.8013	11	-4.7201	12	0.4901	10
-3.7651	11	-4.6897	12	0.5534	10
-3.7289	11	-4.6592	12	0.6168	10
-3.6927	11	-4.6288	12	0.6801	10
-3.6566	11	-4.5984	12	0.7434	10
-3.6204	11	-4.5679	12	0.8068	10
-3.5842	11	-4.5375	12	0.8701	10
-3.548	11	-4.5071	12	0.9335	10
-3.5118	11	-4.4767	12	0.9968	10
-3.4756	11	-4.4462	12	1.0602	10
-3.4394	11	-4.4158	12	1.1235	10
-3.4032	11	-4.3854	12	1.1869	10
-3.367	11	-4.3549	12	1.2502	10
-3.3308	11	-4.3245	12	1.3136	10
-3.2946	11	-4.2941	12	1.3769	10
-3.2584	11	-4.2637	12	1.4403	10
-3.2222	11	-4.2332	12	1.5036	10
-3.186	11	-4.2028	12	1.567	10
-3.1498	11	-4.1724	12	1.6303	10
-3.1136	11	-4.1419	12	1.6936	10
-3.0774	11	-4.1115	12	1.757	10
-3.0412	11	-4.0811	12	1.8203	10
-3.005	11	-4.0507	12	1.8837	10
-2.9688	11	-4.0202	12	1.947	10
-2.9326	11	-3.9898	12	2.0104	10
-2.8964	11	-3.9594	12	2.0737	10
-2.8602	11	-3.9289	12	2.1371	10
-2.824	11	-3.8985	12	2.2004	10
-2.7878	11	-3.8681	12	2.2638	10
-2.7516	11	-3.8377	12	2.3271	10
-2.7154	11	-3.8072	12	2.3905	10
-2.6792	11	-3.7768	12	2.4538	10
-2.643	11	-3.7464	12	2.5172	10
-2.6068	11	-3.7159	12	2.5805	10
-2.5706	11	-3.6855	12	2.6438	10
-2.5344	11	-3.6551	12	2.7072	10
-2.4982	11	-3.6247	12	2.7705	10
-2.462	11	-3.5942	12	2.8339	10
-2.4258	11	-3.5638	12	2.8972	10
-2.3896	11	-3.5334	12	2.9606	10
-2.3534	11	-3.503	12	3.0239	10
-2.3172	11	-3.4725	12	3.0873	10
-2.281	11	-3.4421	12	3.1506	10
-2.2448	11	-3.4117	12	3.214	10
-2.2086	11	-3.3812	12	3.2773	10
-2.1724	11	-3.3508	12	3.3407	10
-2.1362	11	-3.3204	12	3.404	10
-2.1	11	-3.29	12	3.4674	10
-2.0638	11	-3.2595	12	3.5307	10
-2.0276	11	-3.2291	12	3.5941	10
-1.9915	11	-3.1987	12	3.6574	10
-1.9553	11	-3.1682	12	3.7207	10
-1.9191	11	-3.1378	12	3.7841	10
-1.8829	11	-3.1074	12	3.8474	10
-1.8467	11	-3.077	12	3.9108	10
-1.8105	11	-3.0465	12	3.9741	10
-1.7743	11	-3.0161	12	4.0375	10
-1.7381	11	-2.9857	12	4.1008	10
-1.7019	11	-2.9552	12	4.1642	10
-1.6657	11	-2.9248	12	4.2275	10
-1.6295	11	-2.8944	12	4.2909	10
-1.5933	11	-2.864	12	4.3542	10
-1.5571	11	-2.8335	11	4.4176	10
-1.5209	11	-2.8031	11	4.4809	10
-1.4847	11	-2.7726	11	4.5443	10
-1.4485	11	-2.7421	11	4.6076	10
-1.4123	11	-2.7117	11	4.6709	10
-1.3761	11	-2.6812	11	4.7343	10
-1.3399	11	-2.6508	11	4.7976	10
-1.3037	11	-2.6203	11	4.861	10
-1.2675	11	-2.5899	11	4.9243	10
-1.2313	11	-2.5594	11	4.9877	10
-1.1951	11	-2.5289	11	5.051	10
-1.1589	11	-2.4985	11	5.1144	10
-1.1227	11	-2.468	11	5.1777	10
-1.0865	11	-2.4376	11	5.2411	10
-1.0503	11	-2.4071	11	5.3044	10
-1.0141	11	-2.3767	11	5.3678	10
-0.9779	11	-2.3462	11	5.4311	10
-0.9417	11	-2.3157	11	5.4945	10
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14.853	0	11.0349	0
14.8894	0	11.0658	0
14.9259	0	11.0968	0
14.9623	0	11.1277	0
14.9987	0	11.1586	0
15.0351	0	11.1896	0
15.0716	0	11.2205	0
15.108	0	11.2515	0
15.1444	0	11.2824	0
15.1808	0	11.3133	0
15.2173	0	11.3443	0
15.2537	0	11.3752	0
15.2901	0	11.4061	0
15.3265	0	11.4371	0
15.363	0	11.468	0
15.3994	0	11.499	0
15.4358	0	11.5299	0
15.4722	0	11.5608	0
15.5087	0	11.5918	0
15.5451	0	11.6227	0
15.5815	0	11.6536	0
15.6179	0	11.6846	0
15.6544	0	11.7155	0
15.6908	0	11.7465	0
15.7272	0	11.7774	0
15.7636	0	11.8083	0
15.8001	0	11.8393	0
15.8365	0	11.8702	0
15.8729	0	11.9012	0
15.9093	0	11.9321	0
15.9458	0	11.963	0
15.9822	0	11.994	0
16.0186	0	12.0249	0
16.055	0	12.0558	0
16.0915	0	12.0868	0
16.1279	0	12.1177	0
16.1643	0	12.1487	0
16.2007	0	12.1796	0
16.2372	0	12.2105	0
16.2736	0	12.2415	0
16.31	0	12.2724	0
16.3464	0	12.3033	0
16.3829	0	12.3343	0
16.4193	0	12.3652	0
16.4557	0	12.3962	0
16.4921	0	12.4271	0
16.5286	0	12.458	0
16.565	0	12.489	0
16.6014	0	12.5199	0
16.6378	0	12.5509	0
16.6743	0	12.5818	0
16.7107	0	12.6127	0
16.7471	0	12.6437	0
16.7835	0	12.6746	0
16.82	0	12.7055	0
16.8564	0	12.7365	0
16.8928	0	12.7674	0
16.9292	0	12.7984	0
16.9657	0	12.8293	0
17.0021	0	12.8602	0
17.0385	0	12.8912	0
17.0749	0	12.9221	0
17.1114	0	12.9531	0
17.1478	0	12.984	0
17.1842	0	13.0149	0
17.2206	0	13.0459	0
17.2571	0	13.0768	0
17.2935	0	13.1077	0
17.3299	0	13.1387	0
17.3663	0	13.1696	0
17.4028	0	13.2006	0
17.4392	0	13.2315	0
17.4756	0	13.2624	0
17.512	0	13.2934	0
17.5485	0	13.3243	0
17.5849	0	13.3552	0
17.6213	0	13.3862	0
17.6577	0	13.4171	0
17.6942	0	13.4481	0
17.7306	0	13.479	0
17.767	0	13.5099	0
17.8034	0	13.5409	0
17.8399	0	13.5718	0
17.8763	0	13.6028	0
17.9127	0	13.6337	0
17.9491	0	13.6646	0
17.9856	0	13.6956	0
18.022	0	13.7265	0
18.0584	0	13.7574	0
18.0948	0	13.7884	0
18.1313	0	13.8193	0
18.1677	0	13.8503	0
18.2041	0	13.8812	0
18.2405	0	13.9121	0
18.277	0	13.9431	0
18.3134	0	13.974	0
18.3498	0	14.005	0
18.3862	0	14.0359	0
18.4227	0	14.0668	0
18.4591	0	14.0978	0
18.4955	0	14.1287	0
18.5319	0	14.1596	0
18.5684	0	14.1906	0
18.6048	0	14.2215	0
18.6412	0	14.2525	0
18.6776	0	14.2834	0
18.7141	0	14.3143	0
18.7505	0	14.3453	0
18.7869	0	14.3762	0
18.8233	0	14.4071	0
18.8598	0	14.4381	0
18.8962	0	14.469	0
18.9326	0	14.5	0
18.969	0	14.5309	0
19.0055	0	14.5618	0
19.0419	0	14.5928	0
19.0783	0	14.6237	0
19.1147	0	14.6547	0
19.1512	0	14.6856	0
19.1876	0	14.7165	0
19.224	0	14.7475	0
19.2604	0	14.7784	0
19.2969	0	14.8093	0
19.3333	0	14.8403	0
19.3697	0	14.8712	0
19.4061	0	14.9022	0
19.4426	0	14.9331	0
19.479	0	14.964	0
19.5154	0	14.995	0
19.5518	0	15.0259	0
19.5883	0	15.0569	0
19.6247	0	15.0878	0
19.6611	0	15.1187	0
19.6975	0	15.1497	0
19.734	0	15.1806	0
19.7704	0	15.2115	0
19.8068	0	15.2425	0
19.8432	0	15.2734	0
19.8796	0	15.3044	0
19.9161	0	15.3353	0
19.9525	0	15.3662	0
19.9889	0	15.3972	0
		15.4281	0
		15.459	0
		15.49	0
		15.5209	0
		15.5519	0
		15.5828	0
		15.6137	0
		15.6447	0
		15.6756	0
		15.7066	0
		15.7375	0
		15.7684	0
		15.7994	0
		15.8303	0
		15.8612	0
		15.8922	0
		15.9231	0
		15.9541	0
		15.985	0
		16.0159	0
		16.0469	0
		16.0778	0
		16.1088	0
		16.1397	0
		16.1706	0
		16.2016	0
		16.2325	0
		16.2634	0
		16.2944	0
		16.3253	0
		16.3563	0
		16.3872	0
		16.4181	0
		16.4491	0
		16.48	0
		16.5109	0
		16.5419	0
		16.5728	0
		16.6038	0
		16.6347	0
		16.6656	0
		16.6966	0
		16.7275	0
		16.7585	0
		16.7894	0
		16.8203	0
		16.8513	0
		16.8822	0
		16.9131	0
		16.9441	0
		16.975	0
		17.006	0
		17.0369	0
		17.0678	0
		17.0988	0
		17.1297	0
		17.1607	0
		17.1916	0
		17.2225	0
		17.2535	0
		17.2844	0
		17.3153	0
		17.3463	0
		17.3772	0
		17.4082	0
		17.4391	0
		17.47	0
		17.501	0
		17.5319	0
		17.5628	0
		17.5938	0
		17.6247	0
		17.6557	0
		17.6866	0
		17.7175	0
		17.7485	0
		17.7794	0
		17.8104	0
		17.8413	0
		17.8722	0
		17.9032	0
		17.9341	0
		17.965	0
		17.996	0
		18.0269	0
		18.0579	0
		18.0888	0
		18.1197	0
		18.1507	0
		18.1816	0
		18.2126	0
		18.2435	0
		18.2744	0
		18.3054	0
		18.3363	0
		18.3672	0
		18.3982	0
		18.4291	0
		18.4601	0
		18.491	0
		18.5219	0
		18.5529	0
		18.5838	0
		18.6147	0
		18.6457	0
		18.6766	0
		18.7076	0
		18.7385	0
		18.7694	0
		18.8004	0
		18.8313	0
		18.8623	0
		18.8932	0
		18.9241	0
		18.9551	0
		18.986	0
		19.0169	0
		19.0479	0
		19.0788	0
		19.1098	0
		19.1407	0
		19.1716	0
		19.2026	0
		19.2335	0
		19.2645	0
		19.2954	0
		19.3263	0
		19.3573	0
		19.3882	0
		19.4191	0
		19.4501	0
		19.481	0
		19.512	0
		19.5429	0
		19.5738	0
		19.6048	0
		19.6357	0
		19.6666	0
		19.6976	0
		19.7285	0
		19.7595	0
		19.7904	0
		19.8213	0
		19.8523	0
		19.8832	0
		19.9142	0
		19.9451	0
		19.976	0

Data for Figure 7 (Bottom Left Panel)

Average percent change in foreign GDP	Baseline Trade Elasticity	Average percent change in foreign GDP	High Trade Elasticity	Average percent change in foreign GDP	Low Trade Elasticity
-9.4813	0.8327	-9.4898	1.2069	-9.4545	0.5039
-9.4451	0.8325	-9.4595	1.2064	-9.3911	0.5038
-9.409	0.8323	-9.4292	1.2058	-9.3278	0.5037
-9.3728	0.8322	-9.3989	1.2053	-9.2645	0.5036
-9.3366	0.832	-9.3685	1.2047	-9.2011	0.5035
-9.3005	0.8318	-9.3382	1.2041	-9.1378	0.5034
-9.2643	0.8316	-9.3079	1.2036	-9.0745	0.5033
-9.2281	0.8315	-9.2775	1.203	-9.0111	0.5032
-9.192	0.8313	-9.2472	1.2025	-8.9478	0.5031
-9.1558	0.8311	-9.2169	1.202	-8.8845	0.503
-9.1196	0.8309	-9.1865	1.2016	-8.8211	0.5029
-9.0834	0.8307	-9.1562	1.2012	-8.7578	0.5028
-9.0473	0.8306	-9.1258	1.2007	-8.6945	0.5026
-9.0111	0.8304	-9.0955	1.2003	-8.6311	0.5025
-8.9749	0.8302	-9.0651	1.1998	-8.5678	0.5024
-8.9388	0.83	-9.0348	1.1994	-8.5044	0.5023
-8.9026	0.8298	-9.0044	1.1989	-8.4411	0.5022
-8.8664	0.8296	-8.9741	1.1985	-8.3778	0.5021
-8.8303	0.8294	-8.9437	1.198	-8.3144	0.5019
-8.7941	0.8292	-8.9133	1.1976	-8.2511	0.5018
-8.7579	0.829	-8.883	1.1971	-8.1878	0.5017
-8.7217	0.8288	-8.8526	1.1966	-8.1244	0.5016
-8.6856	0.8286	-8.8223	1.1961	-8.0611	0.5014
-8.6494	0.8284	-8.7919	1.1957	-7.9978	0.5013
-8.6132	0.8282	-8.7616	1.1952	-7.9344	0.5012
-8.5771	0.828	-8.7312	1.1947	-7.8711	0.501
-8.5409	0.8278	-8.7009	1.1942	-7.8077	0.5009
-8.5047	0.8276	-8.6705	1.1937	-7.7444	0.5008
-8.4686	0.8274	-8.6402	1.1933	-7.6811	0.5006
-8.4324	0.8272	-8.6098	1.1928	-7.6177	0.5005
-8.3962	0.827	-8.5795	1.1923	-7.5544	0.5003
-8.36	0.8268	-8.5491	1.1918	-7.4911	0.5002
-8.3239	0.8265	-8.5188	1.1912	-7.4277	0.5
-8.2877	0.8263	-8.4884	1.1907	-7.3644	0.4999
-8.2515	0.8261	-8.4581	1.1902	-7.3011	0.4997
-8.2154	0.8259	-8.4277	1.1897	-7.2377	0.4995
-8.1792	0.8257	-8.3974	1.1892	-7.1744	0.4994
-8.143	0.8254	-8.367	1.1887	-7.111	0.4992
-8.1069	0.8252	-8.3367	1.1881	-7.0477	0.4991
-8.0707	0.825	-8.3063	1.1876	-6.9844	0.4991
-8.0345	0.8247	-8.276	1.1872	-6.921	0.4991
-7.9983	0.8245	-8.2456	1.1868	-6.8577	0.499
-7.9622	0.8243	-8.2152	1.1864	-6.7943	0.499
-7.926	0.824	-8.1848	1.186	-6.731	0.499
-7.8898	0.8238	-8.1545	1.1857	-6.6677	0.499
-7.8537	0.8235	-8.1241	1.1853	-6.6043	0.499
-7.8175	0.8233	-8.0937	1.1849	-6.541	0.499
-7.7813	0.823	-8.0633	1.1845	-6.4776	0.499
-7.7452	0.8228	-8.033	1.1841	-6.4143	0.4989
-7.709	0.8225	-8.0026	1.1837	-6.3509	0.4989
-7.6728	0.8223	-7.9722	1.1833	-6.2876	0.4989
-7.6366	0.822	-7.9418	1.1829	-6.2243	0.4989
-7.6005	0.8218	-7.9115	1.1825	-6.1609	0.4989
-7.5643	0.8215	-7.8811	1.1821	-6.0976	0.4989
-7.5281	0.8212	-7.8507	1.1817	-6.0342	0.4989
-7.492	0.821	-7.8203	1.1813	-5.9709	0.4988
-7.4558	0.8207	-7.7899	1.1809	-5.9076	0.4988
-7.4196	0.8204	-7.7596	1.1805	-5.8442	0.4988
-7.3835	0.8201	-7.7292	1.18	-5.7809	0.4988
-7.3473	0.8199	-7.6988	1.1796	-5.7175	0.4988
-7.3111	0.8196	-7.6684	1.1792	-5.6542	0.4987
-7.2749	0.8193	-7.6381	1.1787	-5.5908	0.4987
-7.2388	0.819	-7.6077	1.1783	-5.5275	0.4987
-7.2026	0.8187	-7.5773	1.1779	-5.4642	0.4987
-7.1664	0.8184	-7.5469	1.1774	-5.4008	0.4987
-7.1303	0.8181	-7.5166	1.177	-5.3375	0.4986
-7.0941	0.8178	-7.4862	1.1765	-5.2741	0.4986
-7.0579	0.8175	-7.4558	1.1761	-5.2108	0.4986
-7.0217	0.8174	-7.4254	1.1756	-5.1474	0.4986
-6.9856	0.8173	-7.3951	1.1752	-5.0841	0.4986
-6.9494	0.8171	-7.3647	1.1747	-5.0208	0.4985
-6.9132	0.817	-7.3343	1.1742	-4.9574	0.4985
-6.877	0.8169	-7.3039	1.1738	-4.8941	0.4985
-6.8408	0.8167	-7.2736	1.1733	-4.8307	0.4985
-6.8046	0.8166	-7.2432	1.1728	-4.7674	0.4984
-6.7685	0.8165	-7.2128	1.1723	-4.7041	0.4984
-6.7323	0.8163	-7.1824	1.1718	-4.6407	0.4984
-6.6961	0.8162	-7.1521	1.1713	-4.5774	0.4983
-6.6599	0.816	-7.1217	1.1708	-4.514	0.4983
-6.6237	0.8159	-7.0913	1.1703	-4.4507	0.4983
-6.5875	0.8157	-7.0609	1.1698	-4.3873	0.4982
-6.5514	0.8156	-7.0306	1.1693	-4.324	0.4982
-6.5152	0.8154	-7.0002	1.1688	-4.2607	0.4982
-6.479	0.8153	-6.9698	1.1683	-4.1973	0.4981
-6.4428	0.8151	-6.9394	1.1678	-4.134	0.4981
-6.4066	0.815	-6.9091	1.1672	-4.0706	0.4981
-6.3704	0.8148	-6.8787	1.1667	-4.0073	0.498
-6.3343	0.8147	-6.8483	1.1662	-3.944	0.498
-6.2981	0.8145	-6.8179	1.1656	-3.8806	0.498
-6.2619	0.8143	-6.7875	1.1652	-3.8173	0.4979
-6.2257	0.8142	-6.7571	1.1648	-3.7539	0.4979
-6.1895	0.814	-6.7267	1.1645	-3.6906	0.4978
-6.1533	0.8138	-6.6963	1.1642	-3.6272	0.4978
-6.1172	0.8137	-6.6659	1.1638	-3.5639	0.4977
-6.081	0.8135	-6.6355	1.1635	-3.5006	0.4977
-6.0448	0.8133	-6.6051	1.1632	-3.4372	0.4976
-6.0086	0.8131	-6.5747	1.1628	-3.3739	0.4976
-5.9724	0.813	-6.5443	1.1625	-3.3105	0.4975
-5.9362	0.8128	-6.5139	1.1621	-3.2472	0.4975
-5.9001	0.8126	-6.4835	1.1617	-3.1838	0.4974
-5.8639	0.8124	-6.4531	1.1614	-3.1205	0.4974
-5.8277	0.8122	-6.4227	1.161	-3.0572	0.4973
-5.7915	0.812	-6.3923	1.1606	-2.9938	0.4972
-5.7553	0.8118	-6.3619	1.1603	-2.9305	0.4971
-5.7191	0.8116	-6.3315	1.1599	-2.8671	0.4971
-5.6829	0.8114	-6.3011	1.1595	-2.8038	0.497
-5.6468	0.8112	-6.2707	1.1591	-2.7405	0.4969
-5.6106	0.811	-6.2403	1.1588	-2.6771	0.4968
-5.5744	0.8108	-6.2099	1.1584	-2.6138	0.4967
-5.5382	0.8106	-6.1795	1.158	-2.5504	0.4967
-5.502	0.8104	-6.1491	1.1576	-2.4871	0.4966
-5.4658	0.8102	-6.1187	1.1572	-2.4237	0.4965
-5.4297	0.81	-6.0883	1.1568	-2.3604	0.4963
-5.3935	0.8098	-6.0579	1.1564	-2.2971	0.4962
-5.3573	0.8095	-6.0275	1.1559	-2.2337	0.4961
-5.3211	0.8093	-5.9971	1.1555	-2.1704	0.496
-5.2849	0.8091	-5.9667	1.1551	-2.107	0.4959
-5.2487	0.8089	-5.9363	1.1547	-2.0437	0.4957
-5.2126	0.8086	-5.9059	1.1543	-1.9804	0.4956
-5.1764	0.8084	-5.8755	1.1538	-1.917	0.4954
-5.1402	0.8081	-5.8451	1.1534	-1.8537	0.4952
-5.104	0.8079	-5.8147	1.1529	-1.7903	0.495
-5.0678	0.8076	-5.7843	1.1525	-1.727	0.4948
-5.0316	0.8074	-5.7539	1.152	-1.6636	0.4946
-4.9955	0.8071	-5.7235	1.1516	-1.6003	0.4944
-4.9593	0.8069	-5.6931	1.1511	-1.537	0.4941
-4.9231	0.8066	-5.6627	1.1506	-1.4736	0.4939
-4.8869	0.8063	-5.6323	1.1502	-1.4103	0.4936
-4.8507	0.8061	-5.6019	1.1497	-1.3469	0.4933
-4.8145	0.8058	-5.5715	1.1492	-1.2836	0.4929
-4.7784	0.8055	-5.5411	1.1487	-1.2202	0.4925
-4.7422	0.8052	-5.5107	1.1482	-1.1569	0.4921
-4.706	0.8049	-5.4803	1.1477	-1.0936	0.4916
-4.6698	0.8047	-5.4499	1.1472	-1.0302	0.491
-4.6336	0.8044	-5.4195	1.1467	-0.9669	0.4904
-4.5974	0.8041	-5.3891	1.1462	-0.9035	0.4897
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-0.3262	0.7639	-1.798	1.0927	6.5714	0.4781
-0.29	0.7639	-1.7675	1.0922	6.6348	0.4779
-0.2538	0.7639	-1.7371	1.0916	6.6981	0.4777
-0.2175	0.7639	-1.7066	1.0911	6.7615	0.4776
-0.1813	0.7639	-1.6761	1.0905	6.8248	0.4774
-0.1451	0.7639	-1.6457	1.0899	6.8882	0.4772
-0.1089	0.7639	-1.6152	1.0893	6.9515	0.4771
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-0.0003	0.7639	-1.5239	1.0872	7.1416	0.4766
0.0359	0.7639	-1.4934	1.0865	7.2049	0.4765
0.0722	0.7639	-1.4629	1.0858	7.2683	0.4763
0.1084	0.7639	-1.4325	1.085	7.3316	0.4762
0.1446	0.7639	-1.402	1.0841	7.395	0.4761
0.1808	0.7639	-1.3716	1.0833	7.4583	0.4759
0.217	0.7639	-1.3411	1.0824	7.5217	0.4758
0.2532	0.7639	-1.3107	1.0814	7.585	0.4757
0.2894	0.7639	-1.2802	1.0804	7.6484	0.4755
0.3256	0.7639	-1.2497	1.0794	7.7117	0.4754
0.3619	0.7639	-1.2193	1.0783	7.7751	0.4753
0.3981	0.7639	-1.1888	1.0772	7.8384	0.4752
0.4343	0.7639	-1.1584	1.076	7.9018	0.475
0.4705	0.7639	-1.1279	1.0747	7.9651	0.4749
0.5067	0.7639	-1.0975	1.0733	8.0285	0.4748
0.5429	0.7639	-1.067	1.0719	8.0918	0.4747
0.5791	0.7639	-1.0365	1.0704	8.1552	0.4746
0.6153	0.7639	-1.0061	1.0688	8.2185	0.4744
0.6515	0.7639	-0.9756	1.0671	8.2819	0.4743
0.6878	0.7639	-0.9452	1.0653	8.3452	0.4742
0.724	0.7639	-0.9147	1.0634	8.4086	0.4741
0.7602	0.7639	-0.8843	1.0614	8.4719	0.474
0.7964	0.7639	-0.8538	1.0592	8.5353	0.4739
0.8326	0.7639	-0.8233	1.0568	8.5986	0.4738
0.8688	0.7639	-0.7929	1.0561	8.662	0.4737
0.905	0.7639	-0.7624	1.0561	8.7253	0.4736
0.9412	0.7639	-0.7319	1.0561	8.7887	0.4735
0.9775	0.7639	-0.7014	1.0561	8.852	0.4734
1.0137	0.7639	-0.6709	1.0561	8.9154	0.4733
1.0499	0.7639	-0.6404	1.0561	8.9787	0.4732
1.0861	0.7639	-0.6099	1.0561	9.0421	0.4731
1.1223	0.7639	-0.5795	1.0561	9.1054	0.473
1.1585	0.7639	-0.549	1.0561	9.1688	0.4729
1.1947	0.7639	-0.5185	1.0561	9.2321	0.4729
1.2309	0.7639	-0.488	1.0561	9.2955	0.4728
1.2672	0.7639	-0.4575	1.0561	9.3588	0.4727
1.3034	0.7639	-0.427	1.0561	9.4222	0.4726
1.3396	0.7639	-0.3965	1.0561	9.4855	0.4724
1.3758	0.7639	-0.366	1.0561	9.5489	0.4723
1.412	0.7639	-0.3355	1.0561	9.6123	0.4722
1.4482	0.7639	-0.3051	1.0561	9.6756	0.4721
1.4844	0.7639	-0.2746	1.0561	9.739	0.472
1.5206	0.7639	-0.2441	1.0561	9.8023	0.4719
1.5569	0.7639	-0.2136	1.0561	9.8657	0.4717
1.5931	0.7639	-0.1831	1.0561	9.929	0.4716
1.6293	0.7639	-0.1526	1.0561	9.9924	0.4715
1.6655	0.7639	-0.1221	1.0561	10.0557	0.4714
1.7017	0.7639	-0.0916	1.0561	10.1191	0.4713
1.7379	0.7639	-0.0612	1.0561	10.1824	0.4712
1.7741	0.7639	-0.0307	1.0561	10.2458	0.4711
1.8103	0.7639	-0.0002	1.0561	10.3091	0.471
1.8466	0.7639	0.0303	1.0561	10.3725	0.4707
1.8828	0.7639	0.0608	1.0561	10.4358	0.4705
1.919	0.7639	0.0913	1.0561	10.4992	0.4703
1.9552	0.7639	0.1218	1.0561	10.5625	0.47
1.9914	0.7639	0.1523	1.0561	10.6259	0.4698
2.0276	0.7639	0.1827	1.0561	10.6893	0.4695
2.0638	0.7639	0.2132	1.0561	10.7526	0.4693
2.1	0.7639	0.2437	1.0561	10.816	0.4691
2.1363	0.7639	0.2742	1.0561	10.8793	0.4689
2.1725	0.7639	0.3047	1.0561	10.9427	0.4686
2.2087	0.7632	0.3352	1.0561	11.006	0.4684
2.2449	0.7624	0.3657	1.0561	11.0694	0.4682
2.2811	0.7617	0.3962	1.0561	11.1327	0.468
2.3174	0.7611	0.4266	1.0561	11.1961	0.4678
2.3536	0.7604	0.4571	1.0561	11.2595	0.4676
2.3898	0.7598	0.4876	1.0561	11.3228	0.4674
2.4261	0.7591	0.5181	1.0561	11.3862	0.4671
2.4623	0.7585	0.5486	1.0561	11.4495	0.4669
2.4985	0.758	0.5791	1.0561	11.5129	0.4667
2.5347	0.7574	0.6096	1.0561	11.5762	0.4665
2.571	0.7568	0.6401	1.0561	11.6396	0.4663
2.6072	0.7563	0.6706	1.0561	11.7029	0.4662
2.6434	0.7558	0.701	1.0561	11.7663	0.466
2.6797	0.7553	0.7315	1.0561	11.8297	0.4658
2.7159	0.7548	0.762	1.0561	11.893	0.4656
2.7521	0.7543	0.7925	1.0561	11.9564	0.4654
2.7883	0.7538	0.823	1.0561	12.0197	0.4652
2.8246	0.7534	0.8535	1.0561	12.0831	0.465
2.8608	0.7529	0.884	1.0561	12.1464	0.4648
2.897	0.7525	0.9145	1.0561	12.2098	0.4647
2.9332	0.7521	0.9449	1.0561	12.2731	0.4645
2.9695	0.7517	0.9754	1.0561	12.3365	0.4643
3.0057	0.7513	1.0059	1.0561	12.3999	0.4641
3.0419	0.7509	1.0364	1.0561	12.4632	0.464
3.0782	0.7505	1.0669	1.0545	12.5266	0.4638
3.1144	0.7501	1.0974	1.0525	12.5899	0.4636
3.1506	0.7498	1.128	1.0507	12.6533	0.4635
3.1868	0.7494	1.1585	1.0489	12.7166	0.4633
3.2231	0.7491	1.189	1.0472	12.78	0.4631
3.2593	0.7487	1.2195	1.0456	12.8433	0.463
3.2955	0.7484	1.25	1.0441	12.9067	0.4628
3.3317	0.748	1.2806	1.0426	12.97	0.4627
3.368	0.7477	1.3111	1.0412	13.0334	0.4625
3.4042	0.7474	1.3416	1.0399	13.0968	0.4623
3.4404	0.7471	1.3721	1.0387	13.1601	0.4622
3.4767	0.7468	1.4027	1.0375	13.2235	0.462
3.5129	0.7465	1.4332	1.0363	13.2868	0.4619
3.5491	0.7462	1.4637	1.0352	13.3502	0.4617
3.5853	0.7459	1.4942	1.0341	13.4135	0.4616
3.6216	0.7457	1.5247	1.0331	13.4769	0.4613
3.6578	0.7454	1.5553	1.0321	13.5403	0.461
3.694	0.7451	1.5858	1.0312	13.6036	0.4607
3.7302	0.7449	1.6163	1.0303	13.667	0.4603
3.7665	0.7446	1.6468	1.0294	13.7304	0.46
3.8027	0.7444	1.6773	1.0286	13.7937	0.4596
3.8389	0.7441	1.7079	1.0278	13.8571	0.4593
3.8752	0.7439	1.7384	1.027	13.9205	0.459
3.9114	0.7436	1.7689	1.0262	13.9838	0.4586
3.9476	0.7434	1.7994	1.0255	14.0472	0.4583
3.9838	0.7432	1.8299	1.0248	14.1105	0.458
4.0201	0.743	1.8605	1.0241	14.1739	0.4577
4.0563	0.7427	1.891	1.0235	14.2373	0.4573
4.0925	0.7425	1.9215	1.0228	14.3006	0.457
4.1287	0.7423	1.952	1.0222	14.364	0.4567
4.165	0.7421	1.9826	1.0216	14.4274	0.4564
4.2012	0.7419	2.0131	1.021	14.4907	0.4561
4.2374	0.7417	2.0436	1.0205	14.5541	0.4558
4.2737	0.7415	2.0741	1.0199	14.6175	0.4555
4.3099	0.7413	2.1046	1.0194	14.6808	0.4552
4.3461	0.7411	2.1352	1.0189	14.7442	0.4549
4.3823	0.7409	2.1657	1.0184	14.8076	0.4546
4.4186	0.7407	2.1962	1.0179	14.8709	0.4543
4.4548	0.7406	2.2267	1.0174	14.9343	0.454
4.491	0.7404	2.2572	1.0169	14.9977	0.4537
4.5272	0.7402	2.2878	1.0165	15.061	0.4533
4.5635	0.74	2.3183	1.016	15.1244	0.4528
4.5997	0.7398	2.3488	1.0156	15.1878	0.4524
4.6359	0.7393	2.3793	1.0152	15.2512	0.452
4.6722	0.7387	2.4099	1.0148	15.3145	0.4516
4.7084	0.7382	2.4404	1.0144	15.3779	0.4512
4.7447	0.7377	2.4709	1.014	15.4413	0.4507
4.7809	0.7371	2.5014	1.0136	15.5047	0.4502
4.8172	0.7366	2.5319	1.0133	15.5681	0.4498
4.8534	0.7361	2.5625	1.0129	15.6314	0.4493
4.8896	0.7356	2.593	1.0126	15.6948	0.4488
4.9259	0.7351	2.6235	1.0122	15.7582	0.4483
4.9621	0.7346	2.654	1.0113	15.8216	0.4479
4.9984	0.7342	2.6846	1.0101	15.885	0.4473
5.0346	0.7337	2.7152	1.0089	15.9483	0.4468
5.0709	0.7332	2.7457	1.0077	16.0117	0.4462
5.1071	0.7328	2.7763	1.0066	16.0751	0.4456
5.1434	0.7323	2.8068	1.0055	16.1385	0.4451
5.1796	0.7319	2.8374	1.0044	16.2019	0.4445
5.2158	0.7314	2.868	1.0034	16.2653	0.4439
5.2521	0.731	2.8985	1.0023	16.3287	0.4433
5.2883	0.7305	2.9291	1.0013	16.3921	0.4426
5.3246	0.73	2.9596	1.0003	16.4555	0.4419
5.3608	0.7295	2.9902	0.9994	16.5189	0.4412
5.3971	0.729	3.0207	0.9984	16.5823	0.4405
5.4333	0.7286	3.0513	0.9975	16.6457	0.4398
5.4696	0.7281	3.0819	0.9966	16.7091	0.4391
5.5058	0.7277	3.1124	0.9957	16.7725	0.4384
5.5421	0.7272	3.143	0.9948	16.8359	0.4378
5.5783	0.7268	3.1735	0.9939	16.8993	0.4371
5.6146	0.7263	3.2041	0.9931	16.9627	0.4364
5.6508	0.7259	3.2346	0.9922	17.0261	0.4358
5.6871	0.7255	3.2652	0.9914	17.0895	0.4351
5.7233	0.7251	3.2958	0.9906	17.1529	0.4345
5.7596	0.7246	3.3263	0.9898	17.2163	0.4338
5.7958	0.7242	3.3569	0.989	17.2797	0.4332
5.8321	0.7238	3.3875	0.9881	17.3431	0.4325
5.8683	0.7234	3.418	0.9873	17.4065	0.4319
5.9046	0.723	3.4486	0.9864	17.4699	0.4313
5.9408	0.7227	3.4792	0.9856	17.5333	0.4307
5.9771	0.7223	3.5097	0.9847	17.5967	0.4301
6.0133	0.7219	3.5403	0.9839	17.6601	0.4294
6.0496	0.7215	3.5709	0.9831	17.7235	0.4288
6.0858	0.7211	3.6015	0.9824	17.7869	0.4282
6.1221	0.7208	3.632	0.9816	17.8503	0.4276
6.1583	0.7204	3.6626	0.9808	17.9137	0.427
6.1946	0.7201	3.6932	0.9801	17.9771	0.4265
6.2308	0.7197	3.7238	0.9794	18.0405	0.4259
6.2671	0.7194	3.7543	0.9786	18.1039	0.4253
6.3033	0.719	3.7849	0.9779	18.1673	0.4247
6.3396	0.7187	3.8155	0.9772	18.2307	0.4241
6.3758	0.7183	3.846	0.9766	18.2941	0.4236
6.4121	0.718	3.8766	0.9759	18.3575	0.423
6.4483	0.7177	3.9072	0.9752	18.4209	0.4224
6.4846	0.7172	3.9378	0.9742	18.4843	0.4219
6.5209	0.7166	3.9684	0.9729	18.5477	0.4213
6.5571	0.716	3.999	0.9717	18.6111	0.4208
6.5934	0.7154	4.0296	0.9705	18.6745	0.4202
6.6297	0.7148	4.0602	0.9693	18.7379	0.4197
6.6659	0.7142	4.0909	0.9681	18.8013	0.4191
6.7022	0.7136	4.1215	0.9669	18.8647	0.4186
6.7385	0.7131	4.1521	0.9658	18.9281	0.4181
6.7747	0.7125	4.1827	0.9646	18.9915	0.4176
6.811	0.7119	4.2133	0.9635	19.0549	0.417
6.8473	0.7114	4.2439	0.9624	19.1183	0.4165
6.8835	0.7108	4.2745	0.9613	19.1817	0.416
6.9198	0.7103	4.3052	0.9603	19.2451	0.4155
6.9561	0.7098	4.3358	0.9592	19.3085	0.415
6.9924	0.7092	4.3664	0.9582	19.3719	0.4145
7.0286	0.7087	4.397	0.9572	19.4353	0.414
7.0649	0.7082	4.4276	0.9561	19.4987	0.4134
7.1012	0.7077	4.4582	0.9551	19.5621	0.413
7.1374	0.7071	4.4888	0.9542	19.6255	0.4125
7.1737	0.7066	4.5194	0.9532	19.6889	0.412
7.21	0.7061	4.5501	0.9522	19.7523	0.4115
7.2462	0.7056	4.5807	0.9513	19.8157	0.411
7.2825	0.7052	4.6113	0.9504	19.8791	0.4105
7.3188	0.7047	4.6419	0.9494	19.9425	0.41
7.355	0.7042	4.6725	0.9485
7.3913	0.7037	4.7031	0.9476
7.4276	0.7032	4.7337	0.9468
7.4638	0.7028	4.7644	0.9459
7.5001	0.7023	4.795	0.945
7.5364	0.7019	4.8256	0.9442
7.5726	0.7014	4.8562	0.9433
7.6089	0.701	4.8868	0.9425
7.6452	0.7005	4.9174	0.9415
7.6814	0.7001	4.9481	0.9402
7.7177	0.6996	4.9788	0.9389
7.754	0.6992	5.0094	0.9376
7.7902	0.6988	5.0401	0.9363
7.8265	0.6982	5.0707	0.9351
7.8628	0.6974	5.1014	0.9338
7.8991	0.6966	5.1321	0.9326
7.9355	0.6958	5.1627	0.9314
7.9718	0.6951	5.1934	0.9302
8.0081	0.6943	5.2241	0.929
8.0444	0.6935	5.2547	0.9279
8.0807	0.6928	5.2854	0.9267
8.117	0.692	5.3161	0.9253
8.1533	0.6913	5.3468	0.9239
8.1896	0.6906	5.3775	0.9226
8.2259	0.6898	5.4082	0.9213
8.2622	0.6891	5.4389	0.92
8.2986	0.6884	5.4696	0.9187
8.3349	0.6877	5.5003	0.9174
8.3712	0.687	5.531	0.9161
8.4075	0.6863	5.5617	0.9149
8.4438	0.6856	5.5925	0.9137
8.4801	0.6849	5.6232	0.9122
8.5164	0.6843	5.654	0.9106
8.5527	0.6836	5.6847	0.909
8.589	0.6829	5.7155	0.9074
8.6254	0.6823	5.7462	0.9058
8.6617	0.6816	5.777	0.9043
8.698	0.6808	5.8078	0.9028
8.7343	0.6799	5.8385	0.9012
8.7707	0.6791	5.8693	0.8997
8.807	0.6781	5.9	0.8983
8.8434	0.6771	5.9308	0.8968
8.8798	0.6761	5.9616	0.8953
8.9161	0.6752	5.9924	0.8936
8.9525	0.6742	6.0232	0.8919
8.9889	0.6732	6.054	0.8901
9.0252	0.6723	6.0849	0.8881
9.0616	0.6713	6.1158	0.8861
9.098	0.6704	6.1467	0.8841
9.1343	0.6694	6.1776	0.8821
9.1707	0.6683	6.2085	0.8799
9.2072	0.6671	6.2395	0.8778
9.2436	0.6659	6.2704	0.8757
9.28	0.6647	6.3013	0.8735
9.3164	0.6635	6.3323	0.8715
9.3529	0.6623	6.3632	0.8694
9.3893	0.6611	6.3941	0.8673
9.4257	0.6599	6.4251	0.8653
9.4621	0.6587	6.456	0.8633
9.4986	0.6576	6.487	0.8613
9.535	0.6564	6.5179	0.8593
9.5714	0.6553	6.5488	0.8574
9.6078	0.6542	6.5798	0.8554
9.6443	0.653	6.6107	0.8535
9.6807	0.6519	6.6417	0.8516
9.7171	0.6508	6.6726	0.8497
9.7535	0.6497	6.7035	0.8479
9.79	0.6486	6.7345	0.846
9.8264	0.6476	6.7654	0.8442
9.8628	0.6465	6.7963	0.8424
9.8992	0.6454	6.8273	0.8406
9.9357	0.6444	6.8582	0.8388
9.9721	0.6433	6.8892	0.837
10.0085	0.6423	6.9201	0.8353
10.0449	0.6412	6.951	0.8335
10.0814	0.6402	6.982	0.8318
10.1178	0.6392	7.0129	0.8301
10.1542	0.6382	7.0439	0.8284
10.1906	0.6372	7.0748	0.8267
10.2271	0.6362	7.1057	0.8251
10.2635	0.6352	7.1367	0.8234
10.2999	0.6342	7.1676	0.8218
10.3363	0.6332	7.1985	0.8202
10.3728	0.6323	7.2295	0.8186
10.4092	0.6313	7.2604	0.817
10.4456	0.6303	7.2914	0.8154
10.482	0.6294	7.3223	0.8138
10.5185	0.6285	7.3532	0.8123
10.5549	0.6275	7.3842	0.8108
10.5913	0.6266	7.4151	0.8092
10.6277	0.6257	7.446	0.8077
10.6642	0.6247	7.477	0.8062
10.7006	0.6238	7.5079	0.8047
10.737	0.6229	7.5389	0.8033
10.7734	0.622	7.5698	0.8018
10.8099	0.6211	7.6007	0.8003
10.8463	0.6203	7.6317	0.7989
10.8827	0.6194	7.6626	0.7975
10.9191	0.6185	7.6936	0.7961
10.9556	0.6176	7.7245	0.7947
10.992	0.6168	7.7554	0.7933
11.0284	0.6159	7.7864	0.7919
11.0648	0.6151	7.8173	0.7905
11.1013	0.6142	7.8482	0.7892
11.1377	0.6134	7.8792	0.7878
11.1741	0.6125	7.9101	0.7865
11.2105	0.6117	7.9411	0.7851
11.247	0.6109	7.972	0.7838
11.2834	0.6101	8.0029	0.7825
11.3198	0.6092	8.0339	0.7812
11.3562	0.6084	8.0648	0.7799
11.3927	0.6076	8.0958	0.7786
11.4291	0.6068	8.1267	0.7774
11.4655	0.606	8.1576	0.7761
11.5019	0.6053	8.1886	0.7749
11.5383	0.6045	8.2195	0.7736
11.5748	0.6037	8.2504	0.7724
11.6112	0.6029	8.2814	0.7712
11.6476	0.6021	8.3123	0.77
11.684	0.6014	8.3433	0.7688
11.7205	0.6006	8.3742	0.7676
11.7569	0.5999	8.4051	0.7664
11.7933	0.5991	8.4361	0.7652
11.8297	0.5984	8.467	0.764
11.8662	0.5976	8.4979	0.7629
11.9026	0.5969	8.5289	0.7617
11.939	0.5962	8.5598	0.7606
11.9754	0.5954	8.5908	0.7594
12.0119	0.5947	8.6217	0.7583
12.0483	0.594	8.6526	0.7572
12.0847	0.5933	8.6836	0.7561
12.1211	0.5926	8.7145	0.755
12.1576	0.5919	8.7455	0.7539
12.194	0.5912	8.7764	0.7528
12.2304	0.5905	8.8073	0.7517
12.2668	0.5898	8.8383	0.7506
12.3033	0.5891	8.8692	0.7496
12.3397	0.5884	8.9001	0.7485
12.3761	0.5877	8.9311	0.7475
12.4125	0.587	8.962	0.7464
12.449	0.5864	8.993	0.7454
12.4854	0.5857	9.0239	0.7444
12.5218	0.585	9.0548	0.7433
12.5582	0.5844	9.0858	0.7423
12.5947	0.5837	9.1167	0.7413
12.6311	0.5831	9.1477	0.7403
12.6675	0.5824	9.1786	0.7393
12.7039	0.5818	9.2095	0.7383
12.7404	0.5811	9.2405	0.7374
12.7768	0.5805	9.2714	0.7364
12.8132	0.5799	9.3023	0.7354
12.8496	0.5792	9.3333	0.7345
12.8861	0.5786	9.3642	0.7335
12.9225	0.578	9.3952	0.7326
12.9589	0.5774	9.4261	0.7316
12.9953	0.5767	9.457	0.7307
13.0318	0.5761	9.488	0.7297
13.0682	0.5755	9.5189	0.7288
13.1046	0.5749	9.5498	0.7279
13.141	0.5743	9.5808	0.727
13.1775	0.5737	9.6117	0.7261
13.2139	0.5731	9.6427	0.7252
13.2503	0.5725	9.6736	0.7243
13.2867	0.5719	9.7045	0.7234
13.3232	0.5713	9.7355	0.7225
13.3596	0.5707	9.7664	0.7216
13.396	0.5702	9.7974	0.7208
13.4324	0.5696	9.8283	0.7199
13.4689	0.569	9.8592	0.719
13.5053	0.5684	9.8902	0.7182
13.5417	0.5679	9.9211	0.7173
13.5781	0.5673	9.952	0.7165
13.6146	0.5667	9.983	0.7156
13.651	0.5662	10.0139	0.7148
13.6874	0.5656	10.0449	0.714
13.7238	0.5651	10.0758	0.7132
13.7603	0.5645	10.1067	0.7123
13.7967	0.564	10.1377	0.7115
13.8331	0.5634	10.1686	0.7107
13.8695	0.5629	10.1996	0.7099
13.906	0.5624	10.2305	0.7091
13.9424	0.5618	10.2614	0.7083
13.9788	0.5613	10.2924	0.7075
14.0152	0.5608	10.3233	0.7067
14.0517	0.5602	10.3542	0.706
14.0881	0.5597	10.3852	0.7052
14.1245	0.5592	10.4161	0.7044
14.1609	0.5587	10.4471	0.7036
14.1974	0.5581	10.478	0.7029
14.2338	0.5576	10.5089	0.7021
14.2702	0.5571	10.5399	0.7014
14.3066	0.5566	10.5708	0.7006
14.3431	0.5561	10.6017	0.6999
14.3795	0.5556	10.6327	0.6991
14.4159	0.5551	10.6636	0.6984
14.4523	0.5546	10.6946	0.6977
14.4888	0.5541	10.7255	0.6969
14.5252	0.5536	10.7564	0.6962
14.5616	0.5531	10.7874	0.6955
14.598	0.5526	10.8183	0.6948
14.6345	0.5521	10.8493	0.6941
14.6709	0.5517	10.8802	0.6934
14.7073	0.5512	10.9111	0.6927
14.7437	0.5507	10.9421	0.692
14.7802	0.5502	10.973	0.6913
14.8166	0.5497	11.0039	0.6906
14.853	0.5493	11.0349	0.6899
14.8894	0.5488	11.0658	0.6892
14.9259	0.5483	11.0968	0.6885
14.9623	0.5479	11.1277	0.6878
14.9987	0.5474	11.1586	0.6872
15.0351	0.5469	11.1896	0.6865
15.0716	0.5465	11.2205	0.6858
15.108	0.546	11.2515	0.6852
15.1444	0.5456	11.2824	0.6845
15.1808	0.5451	11.3133	0.6839
15.2173	0.5447	11.3443	0.6832
15.2537	0.5442	11.3752	0.6826
15.2901	0.5438	11.4061	0.6819
15.3265	0.5433	11.4371	0.6813
15.363	0.5429	11.468	0.6806
15.3994	0.5424	11.499	0.68
15.4358	0.542	11.5299	0.6794
15.4722	0.5416	11.5608	0.6788
15.5087	0.5411	11.5918	0.6781
15.5451	0.5407	11.6227	0.6775
15.5815	0.5403	11.6536	0.6769
15.6179	0.5399	11.6846	0.6763
15.6544	0.5394	11.7155	0.6757
15.6908	0.539	11.7465	0.6751
15.7272	0.5386	11.7774	0.6745
15.7636	0.5382	11.8083	0.6739
15.8001	0.5377	11.8393	0.6733
15.8365	0.5373	11.8702	0.6727
15.8729	0.5369	11.9012	0.6721
15.9093	0.5365	11.9321	0.6715
15.9458	0.5361	11.963	0.6709
15.9822	0.5357	11.994	0.6703
16.0186	0.5353	12.0249	0.6698
16.055	0.5349	12.0558	0.6692
16.0915	0.5345	12.0868	0.6686
16.1279	0.5341	12.1177	0.668
16.1643	0.5337	12.1487	0.6675
16.2007	0.5333	12.1796	0.6669
16.2372	0.5329	12.2105	0.6663
16.2736	0.5325	12.2415	0.6658
16.31	0.5321	12.2724	0.6652
16.3464	0.5317	12.3033	0.6647
16.3829	0.5313	12.3343	0.6641
16.4193	0.5309	12.3652	0.6636
16.4557	0.5306	12.3962	0.663
16.4921	0.5302	12.4271	0.6625
16.5286	0.5298	12.458	0.662
16.565	0.5294	12.489	0.6614
16.6014	0.529	12.5199	0.6609
16.6378	0.5287	12.5509	0.6604
16.6743	0.5283	12.5818	0.6598
16.7107	0.5279	12.6127	0.6593
16.7471	0.5275	12.6437	0.6588
16.7835	0.5272	12.6746	0.6583
16.82	0.5268	12.7055	0.6577
16.8564	0.5264	12.7365	0.6572
16.8928	0.5261	12.7674	0.6567
16.9292	0.5257	12.7984	0.6562
16.9657	0.5253	12.8293	0.6557
17.0021	0.525	12.8602	0.6552
17.0385	0.5246	12.8912	0.6547
17.0749	0.5243	12.9221	0.6542
17.1114	0.5239	12.9531	0.6537
17.1478	0.5236	12.984	0.6532
17.1842	0.5232	13.0149	0.6527
17.2206	0.5228	13.0459	0.6522
17.2571	0.5225	13.0768	0.6517
17.2935	0.5221	13.1077	0.6512
17.3299	0.5218	13.1387	0.6507
17.3663	0.5215	13.1696	0.6503
17.4028	0.5211	13.2006	0.6498
17.4392	0.5208	13.2315	0.6493
17.4756	0.5204	13.2624	0.6488
17.512	0.5201	13.2934	0.6483
17.5485	0.5198	13.3243	0.6479
17.5849	0.5194	13.3552	0.6474
17.6213	0.5191	13.3862	0.6469
17.6577	0.5187	13.4171	0.6465
17.6942	0.5184	13.4481	0.646
17.7306	0.5181	13.479	0.6456
17.767	0.5178	13.5099	0.6451
17.8034	0.5174	13.5409	0.6446
17.8399	0.5171	13.5718	0.6442
17.8763	0.5168	13.6028	0.6437
17.9127	0.5164	13.6337	0.6433
17.9491	0.5161	13.6646	0.6428
17.9856	0.5158	13.6956	0.6424
18.022	0.5155	13.7265	0.6419
18.0584	0.5152	13.7574	0.6415
18.0948	0.5148	13.7884	0.6411
18.1313	0.5145	13.8193	0.6406
18.1677	0.5142	13.8503	0.6402
18.2041	0.5139	13.8812	0.6398
18.2405	0.5136	13.9121	0.6393
18.277	0.5133	13.9431	0.6389
18.3134	0.513	13.974	0.6385
18.3498	0.5126	14.005	0.638
18.3862	0.5123	14.0359	0.6376
18.4227	0.512	14.0668	0.6372
18.4591	0.5117	14.0978	0.6368
18.4955	0.5114	14.1287	0.6363
18.5319	0.5111	14.1596	0.6359
18.5684	0.5108	14.1906	0.6355
18.6048	0.5105	14.2215	0.6351
18.6412	0.5102	14.2525	0.6347
18.6776	0.5099	14.2834	0.6343
18.7141	0.5096	14.3143	0.6339
18.7505	0.5093	14.3453	0.6335
18.7869	0.509	14.3762	0.6331
18.8233	0.5087	14.4071	0.6327
18.8598	0.5084	14.4381	0.6323
18.8962	0.5082	14.469	0.6319
18.9326	0.5079	14.5	0.6315
18.969	0.5076	14.5309	0.6311
19.0055	0.5073	14.5618	0.6307
19.0419	0.507	14.5928	0.6303
19.0783	0.5067	14.6237	0.6299
19.1147	0.5064	14.6547	0.6295
19.1512	0.5061	14.6856	0.6291
19.1876	0.5059	14.7165	0.6287
19.224	0.5056	14.7475	0.6283
19.2604	0.5053	14.7784	0.628
19.2969	0.505	14.8093	0.6276
19.3333	0.5047	14.8403	0.6272
19.3697	0.5045	14.8712	0.6268
19.4061	0.5042	14.9022	0.6264
19.4426	0.5039	14.9331	0.6261
19.479	0.5036	14.964	0.6257
19.5154	0.5034	14.995	0.6253
19.5518	0.5031	15.0259	0.6249
19.5883	0.5028	15.0569	0.6246
19.6247	0.5025	15.0878	0.6242
19.6611	0.5023	15.1187	0.6238
19.6975	0.502	15.1497	0.6235
19.734	0.5017	15.1806	0.6231
19.7704	0.5015	15.2115	0.6228
19.8068	0.5012	15.2425	0.6224
19.8432	0.5009	15.2734	0.622
19.8796	0.5007	15.3044	0.6217
19.9161	0.5004	15.3353	0.6213
19.9525	0.5002	15.3662	0.621
19.9889	0.4999	15.3972	0.6206
		15.4281	0.6203
		15.459	0.6199
		15.49	0.6196
		15.5209	0.6192
		15.5519	0.6189
		15.5828	0.6185
		15.6137	0.6182
		15.6447	0.6178
		15.6756	0.6175
		15.7066	0.6172
		15.7375	0.6168
		15.7684	0.6165
		15.7994	0.6162
		15.8303	0.6158
		15.8612	0.6155
		15.8922	0.6152
		15.9231	0.6148
		15.9541	0.6145
		15.985	0.6142
		16.0159	0.6138
		16.0469	0.6135
		16.0778	0.6132
		16.1088	0.6129
		16.1397	0.6126
		16.1706	0.6122
		16.2016	0.6119
		16.2325	0.6116
		16.2634	0.6113
		16.2944	0.611
		16.3253	0.6107
		16.3563	0.6103
		16.3872	0.61
		16.4181	0.6097
		16.4491	0.6094
		16.48	0.6091
		16.5109	0.6088
		16.5419	0.6085
		16.5728	0.6082
		16.6038	0.6079
		16.6347	0.6076
		16.6656	0.6073
		16.6966	0.607
		16.7275	0.6067
		16.7585	0.6064
		16.7894	0.6061
		16.8203	0.6058
		16.8513	0.6055
		16.8822	0.6052
		16.9131	0.6049
		16.9441	0.6046
		16.975	0.6043
		17.006	0.604
		17.0369	0.6038
		17.0678	0.6035
		17.0988	0.6032
		17.1297	0.6029
		17.1607	0.6026
		17.1916	0.6023
		17.2225	0.602
		17.2535	0.6018
		17.2844	0.6015
		17.3153	0.6012
		17.3463	0.6009
		17.3772	0.6006
		17.4082	0.6004
		17.4391	0.6001
		17.47	0.5998
		17.501	0.5996
		17.5319	0.5993
		17.5628	0.599
		17.5938	0.5987
		17.6247	0.5985
		17.6557	0.5982
		17.6866	0.5979
		17.7175	0.5977
		17.7485	0.5974
		17.7794	0.5971
		17.8104	0.5969
		17.8413	0.5966
		17.8722	0.5963
		17.9032	0.5961
		17.9341	0.5958
		17.965	0.5956
		17.996	0.5953
		18.0269	0.5951
		18.0579	0.5948
		18.0888	0.5945
		18.1197	0.5943
		18.1507	0.594
		18.1816	0.5938
		18.2126	0.5935
		18.2435	0.5933
		18.2744	0.593
		18.3054	0.5928
		18.3363	0.5925
		18.3672	0.5923
		18.3982	0.592
		18.4291	0.5918
		18.4601	0.5915
		18.491	0.5913
		18.5219	0.5911
		18.5529	0.5908
		18.5838	0.5906
		18.6147	0.5903
		18.6457	0.5901
		18.6766	0.5898
		18.7076	0.5896
		18.7385	0.5894
		18.7694	0.5891
		18.8004	0.5889
		18.8313	0.5887
		18.8623	0.5884
		18.8932	0.5882
		18.9241	0.588
		18.9551	0.5877
		18.986	0.5875
		19.0169	0.5873
		19.0479	0.587
		19.0788	0.5868
		19.1098	0.5866
		19.1407	0.5863
		19.1716	0.5861
		19.2026	0.5859
		19.2335	0.5857
		19.2645	0.5854
		19.2954	0.5852
		19.3263	0.585
		19.3573	0.5848
		19.3882	0.5845
		19.4191	0.5843
		19.4501	0.5841
		19.481	0.5839
		19.512	0.5837
		19.5429	0.5834
		19.5738	0.5832
		19.6048	0.583
		19.6357	0.5828
		19.6666	0.5826
		19.6976	0.5824
		19.7285	0.5821
		19.7595	0.5819
		19.7904	0.5817
		19.8213	0.5815
		19.8523	0.5813
		19.8832	0.5811
		19.9142	0.5809
		19.9451	0.5807
		19.976	0.5805

Data for Figure 7 (Bottom Right Panel)

Baseline Trade Elasticity	High Trade Elasticity	Low Trade Elasticity
0.3571	0.4454	0.2598

Figure 8. Foreign Technology Shock When Home Country is at Zero Lower Bound

Data for Figure 8 (Soild Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Real Exchange Rate	Home Exports
1	-0.9933	-0.0936	0	-0.0353	0.0668	-0.0283	0.2195	-0.865
2	-0.9502	-0.0552	0	-0.0291	0.021	-0.0357	0.2839	-0.6969
3	-0.9117	-0.0222	0	-0.0198	0.0052	-0.0248	0.3382	-0.5704
4	-0.8722	0.0065	0	-0.0132	-0.01	-0.0177	0.384	-0.4639
5	-0.8323	0.0313	0	-0.0083	-0.0242	-0.0127	0.4225	-0.371
6	-0.7926	0.0528	0	-0.0044	-0.0373	-0.0092	0.4543	-0.2886
7	-0.7534	0.0714	0	-0.0012	-0.0492	-0.0067	0.4801	-0.215
8	-0.7149	0.0872	0	0.0014	-0.0598	-0.005	0.5004	-0.1492
9	-0.6774	0.1007	0	0.0036	-0.0693	-0.0038	0.5159	-0.0907
10	-0.6411	0.1119	0	0.0053	-0.0777	-0.0031	0.527	-0.0386
11	-0.6059	0.1212	0	0.0067	-0.085	-0.0027	0.5341	0.0074
12	-0.572	0.1287	-0.0029	0.0076	-0.0912	-0.0024	0.5377	0.0483
13	-0.539	0.1347	-0.0017	0.0081	-0.1056	-0.0103	0.5375	0.0857
14	-0.5078	0.1393	-0.0002	0.0103	-0.1122	-0.0126	0.5344	0.1165
15	-0.478	0.1425	0.0017	0.0125	-0.1174	-0.0147	0.5287	0.1421
16	-0.4497	0.1446	0.0037	0.0146	-0.1215	-0.0167	0.5209	0.1632
17	-0.4227	0.1458	0.0059	0.0166	-0.1245	-0.0185	0.5111	0.1803
18	-0.3971	0.146	0.0081	0.0185	-0.1265	-0.02	0.4999	0.1937
19	-0.3729	0.1456	0.0104	0.0202	-0.1275	-0.0213	0.4873	0.2041
20	-0.35	0.1444	0.0126	0.0217	-0.1277	-0.0224	0.4737	0.2116
21	-0.3284	0.1427	0.0148	0.0231	-0.1272	-0.0232	0.4593	0.2167
22	-0.3081	0.1406	0.0168	0.0243	-0.126	-0.0238	0.4443	0.2196
23	-0.2889	0.138	0.0188	0.0253	-0.1242	-0.0241	0.4288	0.2207
24	-0.271	0.1351	0.0206	0.0261	-0.1219	-0.0243	0.413	0.2201
25	-0.2541	0.132	0.0223	0.0267	-0.1191	-0.0243	0.3971	0.2182
26	-0.2382	0.1286	0.0238	0.0272	-0.116	-0.0241	0.3811	0.215
27	-0.2234	0.1251	0.0252	0.0275	-0.1126	-0.0238	0.3652	0.2109
28	-0.2095	0.1214	0.0264	0.0276	-0.109	-0.0233	0.3494	0.206
29	-0.1965	0.1177	0.0275	0.0276	-0.1051	-0.0227	0.3338	0.2004
30	-0.1843	0.1138	0.0284	0.0275	-0.1012	-0.0221	0.3185	0.1943
31	-0.1729	0.11	0.0291	0.0273	-0.0971	-0.0213	0.3035	0.1877
32	-0.1623	0.1061	0.0297	0.0269	-0.093	-0.0205	0.2889	0.1808
33	-0.1524	0.1023	0.0301	0.0265	-0.0888	-0.0197	0.2747	0.1737
34	-0.1431	0.0985	0.0304	0.026	-0.0846	-0.0188	0.2609	0.1664
35	-0.1344	0.0948	0.0306	0.0254	-0.0805	-0.0179	0.2476	0.1591
36	-0.1263	0.0911	0.0307	0.0248	-0.0765	-0.0169	0.2347	0.1517
37	-0.1188	0.0874	0.0306	0.0241	-0.0725	-0.016	0.2222	0.1443
38	-0.1117	0.0839	0.0305	0.0233	-0.0686	-0.0151	0.2103	0.1371
39	-0.1052	0.0804	0.0302	0.0225	-0.0648	-0.0142	0.1988	0.1299
40	-0.099	0.0771	0.0299	0.0217	-0.0611	-0.0133	0.1878	0.1228

Data for Figure 8 (Dashed Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Real Exchange Rate	Home Exports
1	-1.0001	-0.095	0.0249	0.0133	0.2479	0.126	0.235	-0.9101
2	-0.9516	-0.0559	0.0098	-0.0222	0.088	0.0225	0.3044	-0.7145
3	-0.9128	-0.0223	-0.0008	-0.0224	0.0593	0.0249	0.3623	-0.5725
4	-0.873	0.0067	-0.0082	-0.022	0.0335	0.0247	0.4105	-0.454
5	-0.8329	0.0319	-0.0134	-0.021	0.0099	0.0228	0.4502	-0.3521
6	-0.7929	0.0536	-0.0169	-0.0193	-0.0117	0.0198	0.4824	-0.2632
7	-0.7534	0.0722	-0.0189	-0.017	-0.0312	0.0162	0.508	-0.1852
8	-0.7147	0.0881	-0.0197	-0.0144	-0.0489	0.0121	0.5275	-0.1167
9	-0.677	0.1015	-0.0197	-0.0114	-0.0646	0.0079	0.5417	-0.0566
10	-0.6404	0.1126	-0.0188	-0.0082	-0.0785	0.0037	0.551	-0.0043
11	-0.605	0.1218	-0.0173	-0.0049	-0.0906	-0.0005	0.5561	0.0411
12	-0.571	0.1292	-0.0154	-0.0016	-0.101	-0.0045	0.5575	0.08
13	-0.5383	0.135	-0.013	0.0017	-0.1098	-0.0082	0.5556	0.1132
14	-0.5071	0.1394	-0.0104	0.0048	-0.1169	-0.0116	0.5508	0.1411
15	-0.4772	0.1425	-0.0075	0.0079	-0.1227	-0.0147	0.5436	0.1642
16	-0.4488	0.1445	-0.0046	0.0108	-0.1271	-0.0174	0.5343	0.1831
17	-0.4219	0.1455	-0.0015	0.0134	-0.1303	-0.0198	0.5232	0.1981
18	-0.3963	0.1457	0.0015	0.0159	-0.1323	-0.0218	0.5106	0.2097
19	-0.3722	0.1452	0.0044	0.0181	-0.1334	-0.0234	0.4969	0.2183
20	-0.3493	0.144	0.0073	0.0201	-0.1335	-0.0248	0.4822	0.2242
21	-0.3278	0.1423	0.0101	0.0218	-0.1328	-0.0258	0.4667	0.2278
22	-0.3075	0.1401	0.0127	0.0233	-0.1314	-0.0265	0.4507	0.2293
23	-0.2884	0.1375	0.0152	0.0246	-0.1294	-0.0269	0.4344	0.2291
24	-0.2705	0.1346	0.0175	0.0256	-0.1268	-0.0271	0.4178	0.2274
25	-0.2536	0.1314	0.0196	0.0264	-0.1238	-0.0271	0.4012	0.2244
26	-0.2378	0.128	0.0215	0.0271	-0.1204	-0.0269	0.3845	0.2203
27	-0.223	0.1245	0.0232	0.0275	-0.1167	-0.0265	0.368	0.2154
28	-0.2092	0.1208	0.0247	0.0278	-0.1128	-0.0259	0.3517	0.2096
29	-0.1962	0.1171	0.026	0.0279	-0.1087	-0.0253	0.3356	0.2033
30	-0.1841	0.1133	0.0271	0.0278	-0.1044	-0.0245	0.3199	0.1966
31	-0.1727	0.1095	0.028	0.0276	-0.1001	-0.0236	0.3045	0.1895
32	-0.1621	0.1056	0.0288	0.0273	-0.0957	-0.0227	0.2896	0.1821
33	-0.1522	0.1018	0.0294	0.0269	-0.0913	-0.0217	0.2751	0.1745
34	-0.143	0.098	0.0298	0.0264	-0.0869	-0.0207	0.2611	0.1669
35	-0.1344	0.0943	0.0301	0.0259	-0.0825	-0.0196	0.2475	0.1592
36	-0.1263	0.0906	0.0303	0.0252	-0.0783	-0.0186	0.2344	0.1516
37	-0.1188	0.087	0.0303	0.0245	-0.0741	-0.0175	0.2219	0.144
38	-0.1117	0.0835	0.0302	0.0237	-0.07	-0.0165	0.2098	0.1365
39	-0.1052	0.0801	0.0301	0.023	-0.066	-0.0155	0.1982	0.1291
40	-0.0991	0.0767	0.0298	0.0221	-0.0622	-0.0145	0.1871	0.1219

Figure 9. Zero Lower Bound Binds at Home and Abroad

Data for Figure 9 (Soild Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Foreign Relative Import Price	Home Exports
1	-0.563	-0.6073	0	-0.6366	0.0324	-0.5222	1.604	-2.5123
2	-0.8671	-1.0182	0	-0.5231	0.1287	-0.713	2.3831	-3.769
3	-0.9916	-1.2683	0	-0.381	0.2519	-0.727	2.7443	-4.3367
4	-1.0005	-1.3944	0	-0.251	0.3783	-0.6521	2.8841	-4.5165
5	-0.9408	-1.432	0	-0.1484	0.4938	-0.5384	2.9008	-4.4758
6	-0.8447	-1.4121	0	-0.0764	0.5914	-0.4145	2.8466	-4.3112
7	-0.7331	-1.3587	0	-0.0318	0.6684	-0.2956	2.7508	-4.0802
8	-0.619	-1.2889	0	-0.0094	0.7249	-0.1893	2.631	-3.8178
9	-0.5099	-1.2142	0	-0.0037	0.7627	-0.0986	2.4983	-3.545
10	-0.4097	-1.1413	0	-0.0095	0.7839	-0.0241	2.3603	-3.2753
11	-0.32	-1.0736	-0.1504	-0.0226	0.7908	0.0342	2.2235	-3.018
12	-0.2412	-1.0126	-0.1239	-0.0394	0.7825	0.0739	2.0954	-2.7823
13	-0.1733	-0.9584	-0.11	-0.0562	0.7646	0.1018	1.9711	-2.5625
14	-0.1158	-0.9103	-0.1053	-0.0712	0.741	0.1217	1.8497	-2.357
15	-0.0679	-0.8676	-0.1065	-0.0837	0.7141	0.1362	1.732	-2.1656
16	-0.0284	-0.8292	-0.1112	-0.0938	0.6854	0.1467	1.6185	-1.9883
17	0.0035	-0.7942	-0.1177	-0.1016	0.6559	0.1542	1.5098	-1.8245
18	0.0287	-0.7617	-0.1248	-0.1073	0.6261	0.1593	1.406	-1.6735
19	0.0482	-0.7311	-0.1318	-0.1112	0.5965	0.1624	1.307	-1.5342
20	0.0626	-0.7019	-0.1381	-0.1137	0.5671	0.164	1.2127	-1.4058
21	0.0727	-0.6738	-0.1436	-0.115	0.5381	0.1643	1.1229	-1.287
22	0.0792	-0.6464	-0.1481	-0.1152	0.5096	0.1635	1.0371	-1.177
23	0.0826	-0.6197	-0.1517	-0.1146	0.4815	0.1617	0.9552	-1.0747
24	0.0834	-0.5935	-0.1543	-0.1133	0.454	0.1592	0.8769	-0.9794
25	0.0822	-0.5677	-0.1561	-0.1114	0.427	0.156	0.802	-0.8903
26	0.0794	-0.5424	-0.157	-0.109	0.4007	0.1523	0.7303	-0.8067
27	0.0753	-0.5176	-0.1571	-0.1061	0.3749	0.1482	0.6617	-0.7282
28	0.0702	-0.4932	-0.1566	-0.1029	0.3498	0.1437	0.5962	-0.6542
29	0.0645	-0.4693	-0.1555	-0.0995	0.3253	0.139	0.5335	-0.5844
30	0.0584	-0.4459	-0.1539	-0.0958	0.3016	0.1342	0.4736	-0.5184
31	0.052	-0.4231	-0.1517	-0.0919	0.2786	0.1292	0.4164	-0.4559
32	0.0455	-0.4008	-0.1492	-0.0879	0.2564	0.1241	0.362	-0.3968
33	0.0391	-0.3792	-0.1463	-0.0837	0.235	0.1191	0.3101	-0.3407
34	0.0329	-0.3583	-0.143	-0.0795	0.2144	0.1141	0.2608	-0.2875
35	0.0269	-0.338	-0.1395	-0.0753	0.1946	0.1091	0.2141	-0.237
36	0.0212	-0.3185	-0.1357	-0.0711	0.1756	0.1043	0.1697	-0.1892
37	0.016	-0.2996	-0.1318	-0.0668	0.1574	0.0996	0.1278	-0.1439
38	0.0111	-0.2815	-0.1277	-0.0626	0.1401	0.095	0.0881	-0.1009
39	0.0066	-0.2642	-0.1234	-0.0585	0.1236	0.0906	0.0507	-0.0602
40	0.0026	-0.2476	-0.119	-0.0545	0.108	0.0863	0.0155	-0.0217

Data for Figure 9 (Dashed Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Foreign Relative Import Price	Home Exports
1	-0.5725	-0.6105	-0.1694	-0.3458	0.2281	-0.2894	1.4117	-2.2978
2	-0.875	-1.0222	-0.2701	-0.284	0.443	-0.3601	2.1549	-3.513
3	-0.995	-1.2714	-0.3116	-0.2138	0.6233	-0.3273	2.5387	-4.1044
4	-0.9998	-1.3957	-0.3118	-0.1569	0.7612	-0.2525	2.7154	-4.3246
5	-0.9373	-1.4318	-0.2886	-0.1187	0.8571	-0.1673	2.7654	-4.3208
6	-0.8398	-1.4108	-0.256	-0.0978	0.916	-0.087	2.7352	-4.1829
7	-0.7279	-1.357	-0.2234	-0.09	0.9447	-0.018	2.6541	-3.9683
8	-0.6141	-1.2875	-0.1958	-0.0913	0.95	0.038	2.5419	-3.7142
9	-0.5055	-1.2133	-0.1753	-0.0977	0.9385	0.0817	2.4124	-3.4446
10	-0.4058	-1.1411	-0.1622	-0.1066	0.9151	0.1148	2.275	-3.1751
11	-0.3167	-1.0742	-0.1553	-0.1161	0.8842	0.139	2.1362	-2.915
12	-0.2387	-1.0141	-0.1535	-0.1249	0.8487	0.1562	2.0001	-2.6696
13	-0.1713	-0.9605	-0.1551	-0.1324	0.8108	0.1679	1.8692	-2.4417
14	-0.1141	-0.9131	-0.1589	-0.1382	0.772	0.1754	1.7446	-2.2321
15	-0.0661	-0.8707	-0.1639	-0.1423	0.7333	0.1796	1.627	-2.0404
16	-0.0266	-0.8326	-0.1691	-0.1449	0.6952	0.1814	1.5162	-1.8657
17	0.0055	-0.7976	-0.1742	-0.146	0.6581	0.1812	1.4119	-1.7066
18	0.0309	-0.7652	-0.1787	-0.1458	0.6222	0.1796	1.3137	-1.5617
19	0.0505	-0.7347	-0.1823	-0.1446	0.5875	0.1769	1.2209	-1.4294
20	0.065	-0.7055	-0.1851	-0.1426	0.554	0.1734	1.1331	-1.3083
21	0.0751	-0.6774	-0.1869	-0.1398	0.5218	0.1691	1.0497	-1.1971
22	0.0816	-0.6501	-0.1878	-0.1364	0.4907	0.1644	0.9704	-1.0947
23	0.0849	-0.6234	-0.1879	-0.1325	0.4607	0.1594	0.8948	-0.9998
24	0.0857	-0.5972	-0.1872	-0.1283	0.4318	0.154	0.8226	-0.9117
25	0.0844	-0.5715	-0.1857	-0.1238	0.4039	0.1485	0.7535	-0.8296
26	0.0815	-0.5462	-0.1837	-0.1191	0.377	0.143	0.6874	-0.7527
27	0.0773	-0.5213	-0.1811	-0.1142	0.3511	0.1373	0.6241	-0.6805
28	0.0721	-0.4969	-0.178	-0.1092	0.3262	0.1317	0.5634	-0.6125
29	0.0662	-0.473	-0.1745	-0.1042	0.3021	0.1261	0.5053	-0.5483
30	0.0599	-0.4496	-0.1707	-0.0991	0.279	0.1207	0.4497	-0.4875
31	0.0534	-0.4267	-0.1665	-0.094	0.2568	0.1153	0.3965	-0.43
32	0.0467	-0.4044	-0.1621	-0.0889	0.2355	0.1101	0.3457	-0.3754
33	0.0402	-0.3827	-0.1575	-0.0839	0.215	0.105	0.2973	-0.3235
34	0.0338	-0.3617	-0.1527	-0.0789	0.1955	0.1001	0.2511	-0.2742
35	0.0277	-0.3413	-0.1478	-0.0741	0.1768	0.0954	0.2071	-0.2273
36	0.0219	-0.3216	-0.1428	-0.0693	0.159	0.0909	0.1653	-0.1826
37	0.0165	-0.3027	-0.1377	-0.0646	0.142	0.0866	0.1257	-0.1402
38	0.0115	-0.2845	-0.1325	-0.0601	0.1259	0.0825	0.0881	-0.0999
39	0.0069	-0.267	-0.1273	-0.0557	0.1106	0.0786	0.0526	-0.0616
40	0.0028	-0.2503	-0.1222	-0.0514	0.096	0.0749	0.019	-0.0252

Data for Figure 9 (Dotted Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Foreign Relative Import Price	Home Exports
1	-1.7488	0	0	-0.5879	-0.0132	-0.3762	0.2117	-2.1026
2	-2.7668	0	0	-0.5135	0.0457	-0.5983	0.5316	-3.5662
3	-3.2501	0	0	-0.402	0.146	-0.6888	0.8671	-4.4822
4	-3.3577	0	0	-0.2833	0.2622	-0.6827	1.1693	-4.9588
5	-3.2148	0	0	-0.1764	0.3762	-0.6143	1.4154	-5.102
6	-2.9178	0	0	-0.0908	0.4761	-0.5123	1.5989	-5.006
7	-2.5381	0	0	-0.0294	0.5556	-0.3981	1.7221	-4.7503
8	-2.128	0	0	0.0093	0.6126	-0.2864	1.7922	-4.3991
9	-1.7242	0	0	0.0289	0.6474	-0.1863	1.8168	-4.0005
10	-1.3526	0	0	0.0343	0.6618	-0.102	1.8002	-3.5874
11	-1.0322	-1.0674	-0.1421	0.03	0.6582	-0.033	1.7376	-3.174
12	-0.7956	-0.8347	-0.099	0.0199	0.6366	0.023	1.6054	-2.7661
13	-0.6156	-0.6677	-0.0705	0.0061	0.6049	0.0625	1.4585	-2.4007
14	-0.4746	-0.5534	-0.0544	-0.0085	0.5687	0.088	1.3192	-2.0859
15	-0.3611	-0.4782	-0.0479	-0.0218	0.5319	0.1034	1.1951	-1.8185
16	-0.2678	-0.4303	-0.0479	-0.0327	0.4966	0.1122	1.0874	-1.592
17	-0.1901	-0.4006	-0.0518	-0.041	0.464	0.1169	0.9944	-1.3996
18	-0.125	-0.3825	-0.0575	-0.0468	0.4343	0.1192	0.9138	-1.2352
19	-0.0704	-0.3712	-0.0637	-0.0506	0.4074	0.1201	0.8433	-1.0938
20	-0.0248	-0.3637	-0.0696	-0.0527	0.3831	0.1202	0.7807	-0.9712
21	0.0128	-0.358	-0.0747	-0.0536	0.361	0.1198	0.7243	-0.8643
22	0.0434	-0.3529	-0.0789	-0.0536	0.3408	0.119	0.6726	-0.7704
23	0.0678	-0.3477	-0.0821	-0.053	0.322	0.118	0.6247	-0.6874
24	0.0869	-0.3421	-0.0843	-0.052	0.3045	0.1167	0.5797	-0.6134
25	0.1012	-0.3359	-0.0858	-0.0507	0.2879	0.1153	0.537	-0.5471
26	0.1115	-0.329	-0.0867	-0.0492	0.2722	0.1136	0.4962	-0.4872
27	0.1183	-0.3215	-0.087	-0.0475	0.2572	0.1118	0.4569	-0.4328
28	0.1221	-0.3133	-0.0869	-0.0458	0.2428	0.1098	0.4189	-0.383
29	0.1236	-0.3047	-0.0864	-0.044	0.2288	0.1078	0.3821	-0.3371
30	0.123	-0.2956	-0.0856	-0.0421	0.2154	0.1056	0.3464	-0.2946
31	0.1208	-0.2861	-0.0846	-0.0403	0.2023	0.1034	0.3116	-0.255
32	0.1173	-0.2764	-0.0834	-0.0384	0.1896	0.1011	0.2778	-0.2178
33	0.1129	-0.2664	-0.082	-0.0365	0.1773	0.0988	0.245	-0.1828
34	0.1077	-0.2562	-0.0805	-0.0347	0.1653	0.0964	0.2131	-0.1497
35	0.1019	-0.2459	-0.0789	-0.0328	0.1536	0.0941	0.1821	-0.1182
36	0.0959	-0.2357	-0.0771	-0.0309	0.1423	0.0917	0.1521	-0.0883
37	0.0896	-0.2254	-0.0753	-0.0291	0.1313	0.0894	0.123	-0.0597
38	0.0833	-0.2151	-0.0734	-0.0273	0.1206	0.087	0.0949	-0.0323
39	0.077	-0.205	-0.0714	-0.0255	0.1102	0.0847	0.0678	-0.0062
40	0.0708	-0.1951	-0.0694	-0.0237	0.1002	0.0825	0.0418	0.019

Figure 10. Reverberation Effects When Both Countries are in a Liquidity Trap*

$^{*}$ Each line is constructed by subtracting the impulse responses to a foreign consumption shock in the case when both countries are at the zero bound from those which obtain when only the home country is at the zero bound.

Data for Figure 10 (Soild Line)

Period	Foreign Relative Import Price	Home Export	Foreign Absorption	Home GDP
1	-1.3923	0.4096	-1.1219	0.146
2	-1.8515	0.2028	-1.8338	0.1146
3	-1.8773	-0.1455	-2.2105	0.0382
4	-1.7148	-0.4424	-2.3287	-0.0306
5	-1.4853	-0.6262	-2.2601	-0.0759
6	-1.2477	-0.6948	-2.0672	-0.0978
7	-1.0287	-0.6701	-1.8016	-0.1025
8	-0.8388	-0.5813	-1.5039	-0.0971
9	-0.6815	-0.4555	-1.2051	-0.0877
10	-0.5601	-0.3121	-0.9282	-0.0779
11	-0.4859	-0.156	-0.6904	-0.0673
12	-0.49	0.0162	-0.5228	-0.0509
13	-0.5126	0.1617	-0.4022	-0.0393
14	-0.5306	0.2711	-0.3126	-0.0338
15	-0.5369	0.3471	-0.2434	-0.0328
16	-0.5311	0.3963	-0.188	-0.0345
17	-0.5154	0.4249	-0.142	-0.0373
18	-0.4921	0.4383	-0.1031	-0.0401
19	-0.4637	0.4405	-0.0696	-0.0424
20	-0.4321	0.4345	-0.0407	-0.0439
21	-0.3986	0.4227	-0.0158	-0.0445
22	-0.3645	0.4066	0.0056	-0.0445
23	-0.3305	0.3874	0.0238	-0.0437
24	-0.2972	0.366	0.0391	-0.0424
25	-0.265	0.3432	0.0517	-0.0407
26	-0.2341	0.3195	0.062	-0.0387
27	-0.2048	0.2954	0.0701	-0.0364
28	-0.1772	0.2712	0.0763	-0.0339
29	-0.1513	0.2473	0.0808	-0.0313
30	-0.1272	0.2238	0.0839	-0.0285
31	-0.1048	0.201	0.0857	-0.0258
32	-0.0841	0.179	0.0864	-0.0231
33	-0.0651	0.1579	0.0862	-0.0203
34	-0.0478	0.1378	0.0853	-0.0177
35	-0.032	0.1188	0.0837	-0.0151
36	-0.0177	0.1009	0.0815	-0.0126
37	-0.0048	0.0842	0.0789	-0.0102
38	0.0068	0.0686	0.076	-0.008
39	0.0171	0.0541	0.0729	-0.0058
40	0.0262	0.0407	0.0695	-0.0039

Data for Figure 10 (Dashed Line)

Period	Foreign Relative Import Price	Home Export	Foreign Absorption	Home GDP
1	-1.7234	-0.3005	-1.1622	-0.0273
2	-2.3532	-0.7239	-1.9005	-0.1061
3	-2.4526	-1.0655	-2.2918	-0.1749
4	-2.31	-1.2602	-2.4152	-0.2145
5	-2.0734	-1.3082	-2.3449	-0.2251
6	-1.8175	-1.2371	-2.1459	-0.2138
7	-1.5777	-1.0826	-1.8714	-0.189
8	-1.3686	-0.8794	-1.5637	-0.1587
9	-1.1957	-0.657	-1.2549	-0.1285
10	-1.0632	-0.4372	-0.9688	-0.102
11	-0.9823	-0.2321	-0.7232	-0.0805
12	-0.9839	-0.0581	-0.55	-0.0643
13	-1.0059	0.0776	-0.4253	-0.055
14	-1.0229	0.1789	-0.3326	-0.0511
15	-1.0269	0.2527	-0.2608	-0.0503
16	-1.0174	0.3058	-0.2029	-0.0511
17	-0.9964	0.3435	-0.1547	-0.0522
18	-0.9669	0.37	-0.1135	-0.053
19	-0.9315	0.3881	-0.0777	-0.0532
20	-0.8926	0.3998	-0.0465	-0.0527
21	-0.8518	0.4067	-0.0192	-0.0517
22	-0.8104	0.4096	0.0045	-0.05
23	-0.7692	0.4095	0.0248	-0.048
24	-0.729	0.4067	0.0422	-0.0456
25	-0.6902	0.4019	0.0568	-0.043
26	-0.6529	0.3954	0.069	-0.0402
27	-0.6175	0.3876	0.0788	-0.0373
28	-0.584	0.3786	0.0867	-0.0344
29	-0.5524	0.3689	0.0927	-0.0314
30	-0.5228	0.3585	0.0971	-0.0284
31	-0.4952	0.3478	0.1002	-0.0255
32	-0.4695	0.3368	0.102	-0.0226
33	-0.4457	0.3257	0.1028	-0.0197
34	-0.4238	0.3146	0.1028	-0.017
35	-0.4036	0.3037	0.1019	-0.0143
36	-0.3852	0.293	0.1004	-0.0118
37	-0.3683	0.2826	0.0984	-0.0094
38	-0.3531	0.2725	0.096	-0.0071
39	-0.3393	0.2629	0.0932	-0.0049
40	-0.3269	0.2536	0.0902	-0.0029

A.  Appendix: Formalizing the Role of the Initial Baseline Forecast

This Appendix provides background notes for implementing the piecewise-linear approach. This approach is very helpful in conducting sensitivity analysis. Moreover, we highlight limited relevance of the initial baseline path with regard to the international spillover effects; we also show that the effects of additional shocks are linear provided that the shock does not affect the duration of the liquidity trap.

For simplicity, assume that a shock immediately depresses the policy rate so that the zero lower bound binds from periods 1 to T.²⁴ If the shock does not also bring down policy rates in the foreign country to the zero lower bound, there are two linear systems that summarize the equilibrium conditions.²⁵

Let the linear system that summarizes the equilibrium conditions for $t\geq T+1$ be written as

$$\bar{A}E_{t} s_{t+1}+\bar{B}s_{t}+\bar{C}s_{t-1} + \bar{D} \varepsilon _{t}=0,$$ (20)

where $s$ is a $N\times1$ vector stacking all the N variables in the model; $\varepsilon$ is a $M\times1$ vector stacking the innovations to the shock processes; and $\bar{A}$, $\bar{B}$, $\bar{C}$, are $N\times N$ matrices and $\bar{D}$ is a $N\times M$ matrix of coefficients. For $1\leq t\leq T$, the linear equilibrium conditions are denoted by

$$\bar{A}E_{t} s_{t+1}+\bar{B}^{\ast}s_{t}+\bar{C}s_{t-1}+\bar{D}\varepsilon _{t}+\bar{d}=0,$$ (21)

where $\bar{B}^{\ast}$ is an $N\times N$ matrix and $\bar{d}$ is a $N\times1$ vector. Furthermore, $\varepsilon_{t}=0$ for all $t>1$.

The matrices $\bar{B}$ and $\bar{B}^{\ast}$ differ in one entry only. Without loss in generality, let the $N$th row in these two matrices record the relationship between the nominal interest rate $r_{t}$ and the notional interest rate $r_{t}^{not}$, where in the original nonlinear system $r_{t} = \max(-\bar{r},r_{t}^{not})$. Let $r_{t}^{not}$ be the $n_{r^{not}}$th entry into $s_{t}$, and $\bar{B}\left( N,n_{r^{not}}\right)$, $\bar {B}^{\ast}\left( N,n_{r^{not}}\right)$ be the entry in row $N$, column $n_{r^{not}}$ into $\bar{B}$ and $\bar{B}^{\ast}$, respectively. Then $\bar {B}\left( N,n_{r^{not}}\right) =-1$ and $\bar{B}^{\ast}\left( N,n_{r^{not} }\right) =0$.²⁶ The vector $\bar{d}$ contains zeros everywhere except in the $N$th row, which equals $\bar{r}$.²⁷

Dynamics for $t\geq T+1$  The solution of the system (20) is given by

$$s_{t}=Ps_{t-1} + Q\varepsilon_{t},$$ (22)

where $P$ is the matrix that solves the linear rational expectations model in which the zero bound constraint on $i_{t}$ is ignored.

Dynamics for $t\leq T$   As [Eggertsson and Woodford 2003] and [Jung et al. 2005] we derive the solution using backward induction. In the last period in which the economy is at the zero bound, the values of the endogenous variables is computed from (21) and the fact that $s_{T+1}=Ps_{T}$:

$$s_{T} =-\left( \bar{A}P+\bar{B}^{\ast}\right) ^{-1}\bar{C}s_{T-1}-\left( \bar{A}P+\bar{B}^{\ast}\right) ^{-1}\bar{d}$$

$$=G^{\left( 1\right) }s_{T-1}+h^{\left( 1\right) } .$$ (23)

In all other periods

$$s_{t} =As_{t+1}+Cs_{t-1}+d,$$

$$s_{1} =As_{2}+Cs_{0}+d+D\varepsilon_{1},$$ (24)

where $X=-\left( \bar{B}^{\ast}\right) ^{-1}\bar{X}$.

Combining (23) and (24) we obtain

$$s_{t} =G^{\left( T-t+1\right) }s_{t-1}+h^{\left( T-t+1\right) } 2\leq t\leq T$$

$$s_{1} =G^{\left( T\right) }s_{0}+h^{\left( T\right) }+\left( I-AG^{\left( T-1\right) }\right) ^{-1}D\varepsilon_{1}$$ (25)

$G^{T-t}$ and $h^{T-t}$ are generated recursively with

$$G^{\left( T-t+1\right) } =\left( I-AG^{\left( T-t\right) }\right) ^{-1}C,$$

$$h^{\left( T-t+1\right) } =\left( I-AG^{\left( T-t\right) }\right) ^{-1}\left( Ah^{\left( T-t\right) }+d\right) .$$ (26)

with

$$G^{\left( 1\right) } =-\left( \bar{A}P+\bar{B}^{\ast}\right) ^{-1} \bar{C},$$

$$h^{\left( 1\right) } =-\left( \bar{A}P+\bar{B}^{\ast}\right) ^{-1} \bar{d}.$$ (27)

We can also express the values of the endogenous variables as a function of the time 1 innovations. If

$$s_{0} =\vec{0},$$

$$s_{1} =\left( I-AG^{\left( T-1\right) }\right) ^{-1}D\varepsilon_{1} +h^{(T)},$$

then for $2\leq t\leq T$

$$s_{t} =\left( \prod\limits_{i=1}^{t-1}G^{\left( T-i\right) }\right) s_{1}+\sum\limits_{j=1}^{t-1}\left( \prod\limits_{i=j+1}^{t-1}G^{\left( T-i\right) }\right) h^{\left( T-j\right) }$$

$$=\left( \prod\limits_{i=1}^{t-1}G^{\left( T-i\right) }\right) \left( I-AG^{\left( T-1\right) }\right) ^{-1}D\varepsilon_{1}+\sum\limits_{j=0} ^{t-1}\left( \prod\limits_{i=j+1}^{t-1}G^{\left( T-i\right) }\right) h^{\left( T-j\right) },$$ (28)

where $\prod\limits_{i=j+1}^{t-1}G^{\left( T-i\right) }=I$ if $j+1>t-1$.

Finding $T$   Given the guess for $T$, compute $r_{T}^{not}$ and $r_{T+1} ^{not}$. The current guess for $T$ is associated with the model's solution path if $r_{T}^{not}<-\bar{r}$ and $r_{T+1}^{not}\geq-\bar{r}$. We denote the number of periods for which policy rates are expected to remain at the zero lower bound following a set of innovations $\varepsilon_{1}$ by $T\left( \varepsilon_{1}\right)$.

The following statements are implied by these observations.

Proposition 1   Linearity at the zero bound: Consider the two shock vectors $\varepsilon_{1}$ and $\varepsilon_{1}+\mu_{1}$, $\mu_{1}\neq0$. If $T\left( \varepsilon_{1}\right) =T\left( \varepsilon_{1}+\mu_{1}\right) =T^{\ast}$ , then $\left\{ s_{t}^{\left( \varepsilon_{1},T^{\ast}\right) }\right\} _{t=1}^{\infty}-\left\{ s_{t}^{\left( \varepsilon_{1}+\mu_{1},T^{\ast }\right) }\right\} _{t=1}^{\infty}=\left\{ s_{t}^{\left( \mu_{1},T^{\ast }\right) }\right\} _{t=1}^{\infty}$ .

Corollary 2   Consider the four different shock realizations: $\varepsilon_{1}$, $\varepsilon_{1}+\mu_{1}$, $\varepsilon_{1}^{\ast}$, $\varepsilon_{1} ^{\ast}+\mu_{1}$. Let $T^{\ast}=T\left( \varepsilon_{1}\right) =T\left( \varepsilon_{1}+\mu_{1}\right) =T^{\ast}\left( \varepsilon_{1}^{\ast }\right) =T^{\ast}\left( \varepsilon_{1}^{\ast}+\mu_{1}\right)$ . Then $\left\{ s_{t}^{\left( \varepsilon_{1},T^{\ast}\right) }\right\} _{t=1}^{\infty}-\left\{ s_{t}^{\left( \varepsilon_{1}+\mu_{1},T^{\ast }\right) }\right\} _{t=1}^{\infty}$ $\ =\left\{ s_{t}^{\left( \varepsilon_{1}^{\ast},T^{\ast}\right) }\right\} _{t=1}^{\infty}-\left\{ s_{t}^{\left( \varepsilon_{1}^{\ast}+\mu_{1},T^{\ast}\right) }\right\} _{t=1}^{\infty}$ , i.e. the effect of the $\mu_{1}$ does not depend on the initial conditions $\varepsilon_{1}$ or $\varepsilon_{1}^{\ast}$, provided that the duration of the liquidity trap is unchanged.

The effect of a positive and a negative shocks are symmetric if the duration of the liquidity trap is not affected by the additional shock $\mu_{1}$.

Corollary 3   Consider the shocks $\varepsilon_{1}+\mu_{1}$ and $\varepsilon _{1}-\mu_{1}$ with $T\left( \varepsilon_{1}+\mu_{1}\right) =T\left( \varepsilon_{1}-\mu_{1}\right)$ . Then $\left\{ s_{t}^{\left( \varepsilon_{1}+\mu_{1},T^{\ast}\right) }\right\} _{t=1}^{\infty}=-\left\{ s_{t}^{\left( \varepsilon_{1}-\mu_{1},T^{\ast}\right) }\right\} _{t=1}^{\infty}$ .

Closely related to the question of how to find $T\left( \varepsilon_{1}\right)$, note that one can define combinations of the innovations such that agents expect the zero lower bound to be binding for any number of periods.

Corollary 4   Any shock vector $\bar{\varepsilon}_{1}$ that is compatible with policy rates at the zero bound for $T$ periods needs to satisfy:

$$e_{n_{r^{not}}}^{\prime} P\left[ \left( \prod\limits_{i=1}^{t-1}G^{\left( T-i\right) }\right) \left( I-AG^{\left( T-1\right) }\right) ^{-1} D\bar{\varepsilon}_{1}+\sum\limits_{j=0}^{T-1}\left( \prod\limits_{i=j+1} ^{T-1}G^{\left( T-i\right) }\right) h^{\left( T-j\right) }\right] =-\bar{r}$$

where $e_{n_{r^{not}}}$ is a $N\times1$ vector with zeros everywhere expect for the $n_{r^{not}}$th position, which has an entry of $1$. If $\bar {\varepsilon}_{1}$ contains only a non-zero element in its $k$th position, then

$$\bar{\varepsilon}_{k,1}=\frac{-\bar{r}-e_{n_{r^{not}}}^{\prime}P\sum \limits_{j=0}^{T-1}\left( \prod\limits_{i=j+1}^{T-1}G^{\left( T-i\right) }\right) h^{\left( T-j\right) }}{e_{n_{r^{not}}}^{\prime}P\left( \prod\limits_{i=1}^{t-1}G^{\left( T-i\right) }\right) \left( I-AG^{\left( T-1\right) }\right) ^{-1}De_{k}}\mbox{.}$$

B.  Appendix: Additional Sensitivity Analysis

The magnification of foreign spillover effects is not peculiar to foreign preference shocks. We show in this appendix how shocks to government spending and capital tax rates in the foreign country affect the home economy. We also consider an alternative preference shock that influences intertemporal consumption allocation directly through the discount factor. Furthermore, we provide sensitivity analysis to the degree of price indexation.

Government Spending Shock

Figure 11 shows the impulse responses for the case of a contraction in foreign government spending. The shock follows an AR(1) process with persistence parameter equal to 0.995. The channels for the transmission of the decline in foreign demand are very similar to the ones described for a consumption preference shock. The spillover effects are smaller, because the effects of the government spending shock are less persistent, as consumption habits increase the endogenous persistence of the preference shock. Choosing an AR(2) process for government spending shocks could increase the persistence of the effects of government spending shocks and bring the quantitative responses to this shock closer to those of the preference shock considered in the paper.

Capital Tax Rate Shock

Figure 12 shows the impulse responses for the case of an increase in the foreign capital tax rate. This shock could be interpreted as boosting investment demand and similar effects would obtain in response to a shock increasing the productivity of investment in the capital accumulation equation. The AR(1) persistence parameter for the shock is set to 0.95. In a liquidity trap, the cross-country spillover effects are magnified at least twofold as measured by the reaction of home GDP relative to the movement in foreign GDP. Increases in the shock persistence would again act to increase the spillover effects.

Alternative Consumption Preference Shock

Figure 13 considers an alternative consumption preference shock. We modified households preferences, described in equation 12, to encompass a time-varying discount factor $\beta_{t}$ as follows:

$$\widetilde{\mathbb{E}}_{t}\sum_{j=0}^{\infty}\beta_{t+j} ^{j}\left\{ \frac{1}{1-\sigma}\left( C_{t+j}\left( h\right) -\varkappa\frac{C_{t+j-1} }{\zeta}-\nu_{ct}\right) ^{1-\sigma}\right.$$

$$\left. + \frac{\chi_{0}}{1-\chi}(1-N_{t+j}\left( h\right) )^{1-\chi }+V\left( \frac{MB_{t+j+1}\left( h\right) }{P_{t+j}}\right) \right\} .$$

We let $\beta_{t}$ be governed by the following process:

$$\beta_{t} - \beta= 0.75 (\beta_{t-1}-\beta) + \epsilon_{\beta t},$$   (29) 

where $\epsilon_{\beta t}$ is an exogenous innovation. The responses shown in Figure 13 were constructed using an initial shock to $\beta_{t}$ that delivered a liquidity trap lasting ten quarters in the home country. The additional contraction in foreign consumption was engineered through a shock to $\beta_{t}^{*}$.

An increase in $\beta_{t}^{*}$ makes postponing consumption relatively more attractive to the foreign households, just like a decrease in $\nu_{ct}^{*}$ considered previously does. However, an increase in $\beta _{t}^{*}$ is associated with a direct fall in foreign real rates and a robust increase in investment. These forces underlie the quick and dramatic rebound in foreign output. After about 10 quarters, foreign output increases 0.5 percent relative to the initial baseline path.

The figure still shows a magnification of the spillover effects of the foreign shock on home GDP when the zero lower bound is imposed. The early rebound in foreign activity, leads to a quicker recovery in the level of home exports. As demand for the home production inputs is expected to recover quickly, home inflation does not drop as much. Accordingly, the Taylor rule for monetary policy, when policy rates are unconstrained, does not call for quite as much easing as after the shock to $\nu_{ct}*$. Accordingly, the magnification of the spillover effects is not as large as for the benchmark preference shock.

Sensitivity to Inflation Indexation

Finally, Figure 14 offers sensitivity analysis with respect to inflation indexation. The benchmark calibration abstracted from inflation indexation in the setting of domestic prices and wages. The figure considers the effects of a foreign consumption shock when price setting is subject to partial indexation. Those firms that do not receive the Calvo signal are assumed to adjust prices according to a rule of thumb that lets them catch up to 50% of the previous period's aggregate inflation. Whereas the initial fall in inflation is not as dramatic with partial indexation, the persistence of the drop is increased, so that short-term real rates are little changed. This is reflected in a response of domestic private absorption that is little changed across the two columns of Figure 14. Without providing graphical evidence, a flatter Phillips curve, as would obtain with a lower Calvo probability, would result in a similar reduction of the initial inflation response and an increase in the persistence of the inflation movement. There would also be little overall change in the output response relative to the case illustrated for the benchmark calibration.

Figure 11. Foreign Government Spending When Home Country is at Zero Lower Bound

Data for Figure 11 (Soild Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Real Exchange Rate	Home Exports
1	-0.9922	-0.4601	0	-0.1892	0.0378	-0.2076	-1.9046	-0.7223
2	-0.745	-0.5421	0	-0.1416	0.0889	-0.2508	-1.8668	-0.962
3	-0.5779	-0.5353	0	-0.0895	0.1395	-0.2266	-1.7855	-0.9966
4	-0.4692	-0.4864	0	-0.0483	0.1834	-0.1808	-1.6952	-0.9544
5	-0.402	-0.4254	0	-0.0211	0.2188	-0.1339	-1.6126	-0.8922
6	-0.3636	-0.368	0	-0.0058	0.2459	-0.0936	-1.543	-0.8328
7	-0.3441	-0.3207	0	0.0007	0.2657	-0.0617	-1.4865	-0.7831
8	-0.3368	-0.2845	0	0.0014	0.2796	-0.0376	-1.4406	-0.7436
9	-0.3368	-0.2581	0	-0.0013	0.2889	-0.0198	-1.4024	-0.7122
10	-0.3409	-0.2395	0	-0.0056	0.2946	-0.0068	-1.369	-0.6865
11	-0.3471	-0.2263	-0.0255	-0.0107	0.2975	0.0025	-1.3384	-0.6648
12	-0.354	-0.217	-0.0224	-0.0157	0.2977	0.0084	-1.3154	-0.6463
13	-0.3609	-0.2099	-0.0219	-0.0201	0.2962	0.0124	-1.2921	-0.6288
14	-0.3675	-0.2042	-0.023	-0.0237	0.2935	0.0154	-1.2685	-0.6114
15	-0.3734	-0.1993	-0.0251	-0.0267	0.29	0.0176	-1.2448	-0.5938
16	-0.3787	-0.1947	-0.0276	-0.029	0.286	0.0193	-1.2213	-0.5759
17	-0.3833	-0.1902	-0.0301	-0.0307	0.2816	0.0207	-1.1981	-0.5579
18	-0.3872	-0.1858	-0.0326	-0.032	0.2768	0.0218	-1.1753	-0.5397
19	-0.3904	-0.1814	-0.0348	-0.033	0.2718	0.0226	-1.1529	-0.5216
20	-0.393	-0.177	-0.0368	-0.0337	0.2665	0.0231	-1.1312	-0.5037
21	-0.3951	-0.1726	-0.0386	-0.0341	0.2611	0.0233	-1.11	-0.486
22	-0.3967	-0.1683	-0.04	-0.0343	0.2556	0.0234	-1.0896	-0.4685
23	-0.3977	-0.1641	-0.0413	-0.0344	0.2501	0.0233	-1.0698	-0.4515
24	-0.3984	-0.16	-0.0423	-0.0343	0.2445	0.023	-1.0508	-0.4349
25	-0.3987	-0.1561	-0.0431	-0.0341	0.239	0.0225	-1.0324	-0.4188
26	-0.3987	-0.1523	-0.0438	-0.0338	0.2335	0.022	-1.0148	-0.4032
27	-0.3983	-0.1486	-0.0442	-0.0333	0.2281	0.0214	-0.9979	-0.3882
28	-0.3977	-0.1452	-0.0446	-0.0328	0.2228	0.0207	-0.9816	-0.3737
29	-0.3968	-0.1419	-0.0447	-0.0323	0.2176	0.0199	-0.9661	-0.3598
30	-0.3957	-0.1388	-0.0448	-0.0317	0.2126	0.0192	-0.9512	-0.3464
31	-0.3945	-0.1358	-0.0447	-0.031	0.2077	0.0184	-0.9369	-0.3336
32	-0.393	-0.133	-0.0446	-0.0303	0.203	0.0176	-0.9232	-0.3214
33	-0.3915	-0.1304	-0.0443	-0.0296	0.1985	0.0168	-0.91	-0.3096
34	-0.3898	-0.128	-0.044	-0.0289	0.1942	0.016	-0.8974	-0.2985
35	-0.388	-0.1257	-0.0436	-0.0281	0.19	0.0153	-0.8853	-0.2878
36	-0.3861	-0.1235	-0.0432	-0.0274	0.1861	0.0146	-0.8737	-0.2776
37	-0.3842	-0.1215	-0.0427	-0.0267	0.1823	0.014	-0.8625	-0.2679
38	-0.3822	-0.1196	-0.0422	-0.0259	0.1787	0.0134	-0.8518	-0.2586
39	-0.3802	-0.1178	-0.0416	-0.0252	0.1752	0.0128	-0.8414	-0.2498
40	-0.3781	-0.1161	-0.041	-0.0245	0.1719	0.0123	-0.8314	-0.2413

Data for Figure 11 (Dashed Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Real Exchange Rate	Home Exports
1	-0.9947	-0.4609	-0.0787	-0.1244	0.0843	-0.1517	-1.7375	-0.6692
2	-0.747	-0.5431	-0.087	-0.0894	0.162	-0.1683	-1.7324	-0.9005
3	-0.5787	-0.536	-0.0933	-0.0543	0.224	-0.1355	-1.6812	-0.9429
4	-0.4689	-0.4867	-0.0869	-0.0301	0.2685	-0.0922	-1.6186	-0.9122
5	-0.4011	-0.4253	-0.0729	-0.0171	0.2975	-0.0539	-1.5585	-0.8601
6	-0.3624	-0.3677	-0.0574	-0.0127	0.3144	-0.0249	-1.5055	-0.8076
7	-0.3429	-0.3203	-0.0443	-0.0137	0.3227	-0.0048	-1.4598	-0.7616
8	-0.3357	-0.2841	-0.0351	-0.0173	0.3251	0.0081	-1.4205	-0.7233
9	-0.3359	-0.2579	-0.0298	-0.0219	0.324	0.0162	-1.386	-0.6918
10	-0.3402	-0.2394	-0.0277	-0.0264	0.3206	0.0209	-1.3551	-0.6653
11	-0.3465	-0.2265	-0.0279	-0.0303	0.316	0.0236	-1.3266	-0.6424
12	-0.3535	-0.2173	-0.0296	-0.0335	0.3108	0.0251	-1.3	-0.6218
13	-0.3605	-0.2104	-0.032	-0.0359	0.3053	0.0259	-1.2745	-0.6028
14	-0.3671	-0.2048	-0.0347	-0.0376	0.2995	0.0263	-1.2501	-0.5847
15	-0.3731	-0.2	-0.0374	-0.0388	0.2937	0.0264	-1.2263	-0.5672
16	-0.3783	-0.1954	-0.0399	-0.0395	0.2877	0.0264	-1.2033	-0.55
17	-0.3828	-0.191	-0.042	-0.0399	0.2818	0.0262	-1.1808	-0.533
18	-0.3867	-0.1866	-0.0439	-0.04	0.2757	0.0258	-1.1589	-0.5163
19	-0.3899	-0.1822	-0.0454	-0.0399	0.2697	0.0254	-1.1377	-0.4997
20	-0.3925	-0.1778	-0.0466	-0.0396	0.2636	0.0248	-1.1171	-0.4833
21	-0.3946	-0.1734	-0.0476	-0.0392	0.2575	0.0242	-1.0971	-0.4672
22	-0.3961	-0.1691	-0.0483	-0.0387	0.2515	0.0234	-1.0778	-0.4514
23	-0.3972	-0.1649	-0.0488	-0.0381	0.2456	0.0226	-1.0592	-0.4359
24	-0.3979	-0.1608	-0.0492	-0.0374	0.2398	0.0218	-1.0412	-0.4209
25	-0.3983	-0.1569	-0.0493	-0.0366	0.234	0.0209	-1.0239	-0.4062
26	-0.3982	-0.1531	-0.0493	-0.0358	0.2284	0.0199	-1.0073	-0.392
27	-0.3979	-0.1494	-0.0492	-0.035	0.223	0.019	-0.9913	-0.3783
28	-0.3973	-0.146	-0.049	-0.0341	0.2178	0.0181	-0.976	-0.3651
29	-0.3965	-0.1427	-0.0487	-0.0332	0.2127	0.0172	-0.9613	-0.3523
30	-0.3954	-0.1395	-0.0483	-0.0323	0.2078	0.0163	-0.9471	-0.3401
31	-0.3942	-0.1366	-0.0478	-0.0314	0.2031	0.0154	-0.9336	-0.3283
32	-0.3928	-0.1338	-0.0473	-0.0305	0.1986	0.0146	-0.9205	-0.317
33	-0.3912	-0.1312	-0.0467	-0.0296	0.1943	0.0138	-0.908	-0.3062
34	-0.3896	-0.1287	-0.046	-0.0287	0.1902	0.0131	-0.8959	-0.2958
35	-0.3878	-0.1264	-0.0453	-0.0278	0.1863	0.0124	-0.8844	-0.2858
36	-0.386	-0.1242	-0.0446	-0.027	0.1826	0.0118	-0.8732	-0.2763
37	-0.3841	-0.1221	-0.0439	-0.0262	0.1791	0.0112	-0.8625	-0.2672
38	-0.3821	-0.1202	-0.0432	-0.0254	0.1757	0.0107	-0.8521	-0.2585
39	-0.3801	-0.1184	-0.0424	-0.0246	0.1725	0.0103	-0.842	-0.2501
40	-0.3781	-0.1167	-0.0417	-0.0239	0.1695	0.0099	-0.8323	-0.2421

Figure 12. An Increase in the Capital Tax Rate When Home Country is at Zero Lower Bound

Data for Figure 12 (Soild Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Real Exchange Rate	Home Exports
1	-0.2985	-0.3711	0	-0.2458	0.0334	-0.197	-1.3476	-1.0486
2	-0.5143	-0.6111	0	-0.2033	0.0889	-0.2697	-1.371	-1.6299
3	-0.668	-0.7532	0	-0.1495	0.1508	-0.2733	-1.3261	-1.9358
4	-0.777	-0.8209	0	-0.0998	0.2092	-0.2409	-1.2334	-2.0713
5	-0.8544	-0.8337	0	-0.0603	0.2581	-0.1921	-1.1091	-2.0969
6	-0.9094	-0.8081	0	-0.0323	0.2946	-0.1385	-0.9655	-2.0499
7	-0.9481	-0.7574	0	-0.0148	0.318	-0.0868	-0.8118	-1.9547
8	-0.9745	-0.6918	0	-0.0058	0.3288	-0.0405	-0.6545	-1.8276
9	-0.9912	-0.6185	0	-0.003	0.3283	-0.0012	-0.4982	-1.6803
10	-0.9997	-0.5426	0	-0.0045	0.3179	0.0305	-0.3459	-1.5213
11	-1.0012	-0.4674	-0.0571	-0.0085	0.2993	0.0548	-0.1997	-1.3576
12	-0.9964	-0.395	-0.0462	-0.0136	0.273	0.0704	-0.0749	-1.1955
13	-0.9862	-0.3266	-0.0399	-0.0182	0.2418	0.0803	0.0443	-1.0355
14	-0.9713	-0.263	-0.0369	-0.0218	0.2078	0.0859	0.1562	-0.8793
15	-0.9523	-0.2044	-0.036	-0.024	0.1726	0.0883	0.2595	-0.7289
16	-0.9297	-0.1508	-0.0361	-0.0248	0.1371	0.0884	0.3536	-0.5857
17	-0.9041	-0.1021	-0.0366	-0.0245	0.1023	0.0866	0.4382	-0.4509
18	-0.876	-0.0582	-0.037	-0.0231	0.0686	0.0833	0.5133	-0.3251
19	-0.8458	-0.0187	-0.037	-0.0208	0.0365	0.0789	0.579	-0.2089
20	-0.8141	0.0165	-0.0365	-0.0178	0.0062	0.0737	0.6358	-0.1023
21	-0.7813	0.0477	-0.0354	-0.0143	-0.0221	0.0678	0.6841	-0.0052
22	-0.7478	0.0752	-0.0336	-0.0103	-0.0483	0.0615	0.7243	0.0824
23	-0.7138	0.0992	-0.0314	-0.0061	-0.0722	0.055	0.7571	0.161
24	-0.6798	0.12	-0.0286	-0.0017	-0.094	0.0483	0.783	0.2308
25	-0.646	0.1378	-0.0254	0.0028	-0.1135	0.0417	0.8025	0.2923
26	-0.6125	0.1529	-0.0218	0.0073	-0.1309	0.0352	0.8162	0.346
27	-0.5797	0.1655	-0.0179	0.0117	-0.1461	0.029	0.8247	0.3923
28	-0.5476	0.1758	-0.0138	0.016	-0.1593	0.023	0.8284	0.4318
29	-0.5164	0.184	-0.0096	0.0201	-0.1705	0.0173	0.8278	0.4649
30	-0.4862	0.1904	-0.0054	0.024	-0.1799	0.0121	0.8235	0.4922
31	-0.4571	0.195	-0.0011	0.0277	-0.1875	0.0072	0.8159	0.514
32	-0.4291	0.1981	0.0032	0.0311	-0.1934	0.0028	0.8054	0.5309
33	-0.4023	0.1999	0.0074	0.0342	-0.1978	-0.0012	0.7923	0.5434
34	-0.3768	0.2004	0.0114	0.0369	-0.2008	-0.0047	0.7771	0.5519
35	-0.3524	0.1999	0.0153	0.0394	-0.2025	-0.0078	0.7602	0.5567
36	-0.3293	0.1985	0.019	0.0416	-0.203	-0.0105	0.7417	0.5583
37	-0.3074	0.1963	0.0225	0.0435	-0.2024	-0.0128	0.722	0.5571
38	-0.2867	0.1933	0.0258	0.045	-0.2009	-0.0146	0.7013	0.5534
39	-0.2672	0.1898	0.0288	0.0463	-0.1986	-0.0161	0.6799	0.5475
40	-0.2489	0.1858		0.0473	-0.1954	-0.0173	0.658	0.5397

Data for Figure 12 (Dashed Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Real Exchange Rate	Home Exports
1	-0.3023	-0.3724	-0.0753	-0.1322	0.1103	-0.1055	-1.0855	-0.9639
2	-0.5174	-0.6127	-0.1117	-0.1101	0.212	-0.1313	-1.1509	-1.5292
3	-0.6693	-0.7544	-0.1242	-0.0845	0.2959	-0.1171	-1.1497	-1.8449
4	-0.7767	-0.8214	-0.1223	-0.0634	0.3585	-0.0851	-1.0967	-1.9965
5	-0.853	-0.8336	-0.1124	-0.049	0.3996	-0.0475	-1.0055	-2.0365
6	-0.9075	-0.8076	-0.0995	-0.0409	0.4209	-0.0111	-0.8878	-2
7	-0.9461	-0.7568	-0.0867	-0.0377	0.4254	0.0211	-0.7534	-1.9111
8	-0.9726	-0.6912	-0.0759	-0.0378	0.4162	0.0478	-0.6101	-1.7872
9	-0.9895	-0.6181	-0.0678	-0.0397	0.3964	0.0688	-0.4639	-1.6411
10	-0.9982	-0.5425	-0.0623	-0.0423	0.3688	0.0845	-0.3194	-1.4821
11	-0.9999	-0.4676	-0.0592	-0.0449	0.3355	0.0954	-0.1799	-1.3172
12	-0.9954	-0.3955	-0.0578	-0.0468	0.2986	0.1024	-0.0476	-1.1513
13	-0.9855	-0.3275	-0.0575	-0.0478	0.2597	0.1059	0.0759	-0.9882
14	-0.9707	-0.2641	-0.0578	-0.0478	0.2198	0.1067	0.1898	-0.8305
15	-0.9516	-0.2056	-0.0583	-0.0467	0.18	0.1052	0.2936	-0.6799
16	-0.929	-0.1521	-0.0587	-0.0447	0.1409	0.1019	0.3871	-0.5378
17	-0.9033	-0.1035	-0.0586	-0.0418	0.1031	0.0971	0.4703	-0.4048
18	-0.8751	-0.0596	-0.0579	-0.0381	0.0671	0.0912	0.5437	-0.2814
19	-0.8449	-0.0201	-0.0567	-0.0338	0.033	0.0845	0.6075	-0.1679
20	-0.8132	0.0151	-0.0548	-0.0291	0.0011	0.0773	0.6622	-0.0642
21	-0.7804	0.0463	-0.0522	-0.0239	-0.0285	0.0697	0.7083	0.0299
22	-0.7468	0.0737	-0.0491	-0.0186	-0.0556	0.0619	0.7464	0.1146
23	-0.7129	0.0977	-0.0454	-0.0131	-0.0804	0.0541	0.7772	0.1903
24	-0.6789	0.1185	-0.0414	-0.0075	-0.1027	0.0463	0.801	0.2573
25	-0.6451	0.1364	-0.0369	-0.002	-0.1226	0.0388	0.8186	0.3161
26	-0.6117	0.1515	-0.0322	0.0034	-0.1401	0.0316	0.8304	0.3672
27	-0.5789	0.164	-0.0272	0.0086	-0.1554	0.0247	0.8371	0.4111
28	-0.5469	0.1743	-0.0222	0.0136	-0.1686	0.0183	0.8392	0.4482
29	-0.5158	0.1826	-0.0171	0.0183	-0.1796	0.0123	0.8371	0.4792
30	-0.4856	0.1889	-0.0119	0.0227	-0.1887	0.0068	0.8313	0.5043
31	-0.4566	0.1936	-0.0068	0.0269	-0.196	0.0018	0.8224	0.5243
32	-0.4286	0.1967	-0.0019	0.0306	-0.2016	-0.0027	0.8106	0.5395
33	-0.4019	0.1985	0.003	0.0341	-0.2056	-0.0067	0.7964	0.5503
34	-0.3764	0.1991	0.0076	0.0372	-0.2082	-0.0102	0.7802	0.5572
35	-0.3521	0.1987	0.0121	0.0399	-0.2094	-0.0132	0.7622	0.5607
36	-0.329	0.1973	0.0163	0.0423	-0.2095	-0.0157	0.7429	0.5611
37	-0.3072	0.1951	0.0202	0.0443	-0.2085	-0.0178	0.7224	0.5587
38	-0.2866	0.1922	0.0239	0.046	-0.2065	-0.0195	0.701	0.554
39	-0.2671	0.1887	0.0273	0.0474	-0.2037	-0.0208	0.679	0.5472
40	-0.2488	0.1847	0.0304	0.0484	-0.2001	-0.0218	0.6565	0.5386

Figure 13. Alternative Preference Shock to Discount Factor

Data for Figure 13 (Soild Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Real Exchange Rate	Home Exports
1	-0.7861	-0.6694	0	-0.4972	0.0777	-0.509	-3.4728	-2.6865
2	-0.9968	-1.3452	0	-0.3815	0.1894	-0.6602	-3.4698	-3.77
3	-0.9008	-1.6943	0	-0.2419	0.3013	-0.6242	-3.2753	-3.985
4	-0.6689	-1.7761	0	-0.1218	0.3947	-0.5043	-2.9732	-3.7554
5	-0.401	-1.6886	0	-0.0358	0.4622	-0.3605	-2.6346	-3.3285
6	-0.1496	-1.5156	0	0.0159	0.5034	-0.225	-2.3062	-2.8446
7	0.0618	-1.3153	0	0.0395	0.5217	-0.1121	-2.0128	-2.3792
8	0.2265	-1.1224	0	0.0431	0.5222	-0.0258	-1.7638	-1.9681
9	0.3464	-0.9542	0	0.0344	0.5104	0.0357	-1.5587	-1.6237
10	0.4276	-0.8167	0	0.0193	0.4909	0.0765	-1.3923	-1.3458
11	0.477	-0.7093	-0.0099	0.0022	0.4674	0.1015	-1.2573	-1.1279
12	0.5017	-0.6281	-0.0074	-0.0143	0.4418	0.114	-1.1562	-0.9618
13	0.5075	-0.5679	-0.007	-0.0284	0.4167	0.1192	-1.0699	-0.8355
14	0.4995	-0.5236	-0.008	-0.0395	0.3936	0.1203	-0.9952	-0.7398
15	0.4816	-0.4906	-0.0097	-0.0477	0.3728	0.1193	-0.9293	-0.6672
16	0.4569	-0.4653	-0.0117	-0.0534	0.3542	0.1172	-0.8699	-0.6116
17	0.428	-0.445	-0.0137	-0.0572	0.3375	0.1147	-0.8151	-0.5681
18	0.3965	-0.4274	-0.0154	-0.0594	0.3222	0.1121	-0.7635	-0.5329
19	0.3638	-0.4114	-0.017	-0.0605	0.308	0.1095	-0.7142	-0.5031
20	0.3309	-0.396	-0.0182	-0.0607	0.2944	0.107	-0.6664	-0.4765
21	0.2985	-0.3807	-0.0192	-0.0603	0.2812	0.1046	-0.6196	-0.4515
22	0.2673	-0.3652	-0.0199	-0.0595	0.2681	0.1022	-0.5738	-0.427
23	0.2375	-0.3494	-0.0205	-0.0583	0.255	0.0997	-0.5287	-0.4024
24	0.2094	-0.3333	-0.0208	-0.0569	0.2419	0.0973	-0.4844	-0.3772
25	0.1832	-0.317	-0.021	-0.0553	0.2287	0.0947	-0.441	-0.3513
26	0.1589	-0.3007	-0.021	-0.0535	0.2153	0.0921	-0.3986	-0.3247
27	0.1366	-0.2843	-0.021	-0.0516	0.202	0.0894	-0.3574	-0.2973
28	0.1164	-0.2681	-0.0208	-0.0496	0.1886	0.0866	-0.3173	-0.2695
29	0.098	-0.2521	-0.0206	-0.0475	0.1753	0.0837	-0.2786	-0.2412
30	0.0815	-0.2365	-0.0203	-0.0453	0.1621	0.0808	-0.2414	-0.2128
31	0.0668	-0.2212	-0.0199	-0.043	0.1491	0.0778	-0.2058	-0.1845
32	0.0538	-0.2065	-0.0195	-0.0407	0.1364	0.0748	-0.1717	-0.1563
33	0.0423	-0.1923	-0.0191	-0.0384	0.124	0.0718	-0.1394	-0.1286
34	0.0323	-0.1787	-0.0186	-0.036	0.1119	0.0688	-0.1087	-0.1014
35	0.0236	-0.1657	-0.018	-0.0336	0.1002	0.0658	-0.0798	-0.0749
36	0.0162	-0.1534	-0.0175	-0.0312	0.089	0.0628	-0.0526	-0.0493
37	0.0098	-0.1417	-0.0169	-0.0288	0.0782	0.06	-0.027	-0.0246
38	0.0045	-0.1307	-0.0163	-0.0264	0.0679	0.0571	-0.0032	-0.0009
39	0	-0.1202	-0.0157	-0.024	0.0581	0.0544	0.0191	0.0217
40	-0.0036	-0.1105	-0.015	-0.0217	0.0488	0.0518	0.0397	0.0433

Data for Figure 13 (Dashed Line)

Period	Foreign GDP	Foreign Policy Rate	Home Policy Rate	Home Inflation	Home Absorption	Home GDP	Real Exchange Rate	Home Exports
1	-0.7924	-0.6714	-0.0507	-0.3294	0.1983	-0.3643	-3.0425	-2.5492
2	-1.0019	-1.3478	-0.0492	-0.2464	0.379	-0.4461	-3.1236	-3.6107
3	-0.903	-1.6962	-0.0581	-0.1511	0.5213	-0.3865	-3.0003	-3.8437
4	-0.6685	-1.7769	-0.0592	-0.0751	0.6168	-0.2722	-2.7672	-3.6432
5	-0.3988	-1.6884	-0.0525	-0.0269	0.6673	-0.1515	-2.4896	-3.2432
6	-0.1465	-1.5148	-0.042	-0.0039	0.681	-0.047	-2.2086	-2.7791
7	0.0651	-1.3142	-0.0314	0.0005	0.6678	0.0333	-1.9478	-2.3251
8	0.2295	-1.1214	-0.0226	-0.0067	0.6375	0.0895	-1.7181	-1.9184
9	0.349	-0.9536	-0.0165	-0.0197	0.598	0.1252	-1.5226	-1.5735
10	0.4296	-0.8166	-0.0131	-0.0344	0.5553	0.1453	-1.3598	-1.2925
11	0.4786	-0.7098	-0.0119	-0.0482	0.5133	0.1543	-1.2257	-1.0701
12	0.5029	-0.629	-0.0123	-0.0598	0.4742	0.1559	-1.1155	-0.8984
13	0.5085	-0.5692	-0.0137	-0.0686	0.4392	0.1531	-1.0243	-0.7683
14	0.5004	-0.5252	-0.0156	-0.0747	0.4084	0.1479	-0.9476	-0.671
15	0.4825	-0.4924	-0.0177	-0.0785	0.3816	0.1415	-0.8817	-0.5988
16	0.4579	-0.4672	-0.0196	-0.0802	0.3582	0.1348	-0.8235	-0.5451
17	0.4291	-0.4469	-0.0213	-0.0805	0.3376	0.1283	-0.7708	-0.5045
18	0.3977	-0.4294	-0.0227	-0.0796	0.3192	0.1222	-0.7218	-0.4729
19	0.365	-0.4134	-0.0238	-0.078	0.3024	0.1166	-0.6753	-0.447
20	0.3322	-0.398	-0.0245	-0.0758	0.2867	0.1114	-0.6304	-0.4244
21	0.2999	-0.3827	-0.025	-0.0732	0.2718	0.1066	-0.5867	-0.4035
22	0.2686	-0.3672	-0.0252	-0.0705	0.2575	0.1021	-0.5438	-0.3832
23	0.2388	-0.3514	-0.0253	-0.0676	0.2434	0.098	-0.5016	-0.3626
24	0.2106	-0.3353	-0.0252	-0.0646	0.2296	0.0941	-0.4602	-0.3414
25	0.1843	-0.3191	-0.0249	-0.0617	0.2159	0.0903	-0.4195	-0.3192
26	0.16	-0.3027	-0.0246	-0.0587	0.2024	0.0867	-0.3796	-0.2962
27	0.1377	-0.2864	-0.0241	-0.0557	0.189	0.0832	-0.3408	-0.2722
28	0.1173	-0.2701	-0.0236	-0.0527	0.1758	0.0799	-0.303	-0.2476
29	0.0989	-0.2541	-0.0231	-0.0498	0.1627	0.0765	-0.2665	-0.2224
30	0.0824	-0.2385	-0.0225	-0.0469	0.1499	0.0733	-0.2312	-0.1968
31	0.0676	-0.2232	-0.0219	-0.044	0.1373	0.0702	-0.1974	-0.171
32	0.0545	-0.2084	-0.0212	-0.0411	0.1251	0.0671	-0.1651	-0.1453
33	0.0429	-0.1942	-0.0205	-0.0383	0.1132	0.0641	-0.1343	-0.1198
34	0.0328	-0.1806	-0.0198	-0.0355	0.1018	0.0612	-0.1051	-0.0947
35	0.0241	-0.1675	-0.0191	-0.0328	0.0907	0.0583	-0.0775	-0.0701
36	0.0165	-0.1551	-0.0184	-0.0301	0.0801	0.0556	-0.0514	-0.0462
37	0.0101	-0.1433	-0.0177	-0.0275	0.07	0.0529	-0.027	-0.023
38	0.0047	-0.1322	-0.0169	-0.0249	0.0603	0.0504	-0.0041	-0.0007
39	0.0002	-0.1218	-0.0162	-0.0225	0.0511	0.0479	0.0173	0.0207
40	-0.0035	-0.1119	-0.0154	-0.0201	0.0425	0.0456	0.0372	0.0411

Figure 14. Sensitivity to Degree of Inflation Indexation

Data for Figure 14 (Solid Line)

Period	No indexation - Home real interest rate	No indexation - Home inflation	No indexation - Home Absorption	No indexation - Home GDP	Partial Indexation - Home real interest rate	Partial Indexation - Home inflation	Partial Indexation - Home Absorption	Partial Indexation - Home GDP
1	0.5219	-0.6346	0.0274	-0.5185	0.6644	-0.5327	0.0154	-0.5563
2	0.3809	-0.5219	0.1187	-0.7081	0.5735	-0.6644	0.1085	-0.7609
3	0.2517	-0.3809	0.2374	-0.7226	0.3988	-0.5735	0.238	-0.7737
4	0.1498	-0.2517	0.3599	-0.6494	0.2239	-0.3988	0.3738	-0.6896
5	0.078	-0.1498	0.4723	-0.5382	0.0876	-0.2239	0.4973	-0.5655
6	0.0332	-0.078	0.5676	-0.4168	0.0004	-0.0876	0.5987	-0.4341
7	0.0104	-0.0332	0.6429	-0.3004	-0.0429	-0.0004	0.675	-0.3123
8	0.0039	-0.0104	0.6985	-0.1963	-0.0532	0.0429	0.7273	-0.2073
9	0.0088	-0.0039	0.7357	-0.1073	-0.0422	0.0532	0.7588	-0.1208
10	0.0209	-0.0088	0.7568	-0.0342	-0.0195	0.0422	0.7735	-0.0516
11	-0.1085	-0.0209	0.7638	0.0233	-0.1051	0.0195	0.775	0.0023
12	-0.0664	-0.0368	0.7559	0.0626	-0.0533	-0.0076	0.7641	0.0404
13	-0.0383	-0.0528	0.7388	0.0903	-0.0221	-0.0337	0.7461	0.069
14	-0.0214	-0.067	0.7159	0.1104	-0.0063	-0.0559	0.7243	0.0915
15	-0.0127	-0.0789	0.6897	0.125	-0.0008	-0.0734	0.7004	0.1096
16	-0.0097	-0.0884	0.6618	0.1358	-0.0015	-0.0865	0.6753	0.1241
17	-0.0103	-0.0958	0.6331	0.1436	-0.0054	-0.096	0.6495	0.1357
18	-0.0133	-0.1011	0.6042	0.149	-0.0108	-0.1026	0.6232	0.1448
19	-0.0175	-0.1049	0.5753	0.1526	-0.0166	-0.1071	0.5967	0.1515
20	-0.0224	-0.1072	0.5468	0.1545	-0.0224	-0.1099	0.57	0.1562
21	-0.0274	-0.1083	0.5186	0.1552	-0.0278	-0.1115	0.5432	0.1591
22	-0.0323	-0.1084	0.4908	0.1547	-0.0328	-0.1121	0.5164	0.1606
23	-0.037	-0.1078	0.4636	0.1534	-0.0375	-0.1119	0.4897	0.1607
24	-0.0413	-0.1064	0.4369	0.1512	-0.0417	-0.111	0.4632	0.1598
25	-0.0453	-0.1045	0.4108	0.1485	-0.0456	-0.1095	0.4369	0.1579
26	-0.0489	-0.1021	0.3853	0.1452	-0.0492	-0.1074	0.411	0.1553
27	-0.0521	-0.0993	0.3604	0.1414	-0.0524	-0.105	0.3856	0.152
28	-0.0549	-0.0962	0.3361	0.1374	-0.0553	-0.1021	0.3606	0.1483
29	-0.0574	-0.0928	0.3126	0.1331	-0.0579	-0.0989	0.3363	0.1442
30	-0.0596	-0.0893	0.2897	0.1286	-0.0602	-0.0955	0.3125	0.1398
31	-0.0614	-0.0855	0.2676	0.124	-0.0622	-0.0918	0.2894	0.1351
32	-0.0629	-0.0816	0.2463	0.1193	-0.0639	-0.0879	0.2669	0.1304
33	-0.0641	-0.0777	0.2257	0.1147	-0.0653	-0.0839	0.2453	0.1255
34	-0.065	-0.0736	0.2059	0.11	-0.0664	-0.0798	0.2243	0.1206
35	-0.0657	-0.0696	0.1869	0.1054	-0.0673	-0.0757	0.2042	0.1157
36	-0.0661	-0.0656	0.1688	0.1009	-0.0679	-0.0715	0.1848	0.1109
37	-0.0663	-0.0615	0.1514	0.0965	-0.0683	-0.0673	0.1663	0.1061
38	-0.0663	-0.0576	0.1348	0.0922	-0.0685	-0.0631	0.1486	0.1014
39	-0.0661	-0.0536	0.1191	0.0881	-0.0684	-0.059	0.1317	0.0969
40	-0.0657	-0.0498	0.1041	0.0841		-0.0549	0.1156	0.0925

Data for Figure 14 (Dashed Line)

Period	No indexation - Home real interest rate	No indexation - Home inflation	No indexation - Home Absorption	No indexation - Home GDP	Partial Indexation - Home real interest rate	Partial Indexation - Home inflation	Partial Indexation - Home Absorption	Partial Indexation - Home GDP
1	0.087	-0.3466	0.2229	-0.2855	0.1725	-0.2724	0.234	-0.2919
2	-0.0758	-0.2858	0.4315	-0.3565	0.0038	-0.3388	0.4564	-0.3654
3	-0.1612	-0.2166	0.6056	-0.3262	-0.1369	-0.2972	0.6436	-0.3331
4	-0.1911	-0.16	0.7383	-0.2546	-0.2142	-0.2207	0.7851	-0.2572
5	-0.185	-0.1217	0.8303	-0.1725	-0.2308	-0.1506	0.8808	-0.1713
6	-0.1595	-0.1	0.8868	-0.0949	-0.2063	-0.1028	0.9362	-0.0916
7	-0.1265	-0.0913	0.9142	-0.0279	-0.162	-0.0788	0.9595	-0.0244
8	-0.0939	-0.0914	0.9192	0.0267	-0.1144	-0.0736	0.9592	0.0293
9	-0.066	-0.0967	0.9079	0.0695	-0.0732	-0.0803	0.9429	0.0707
10	-0.0446	-0.1045	0.8852	0.102	-0.0426	-0.0928	0.9162	0.1021
11	-0.0298	-0.113	0.8552	0.126	-0.0229	-0.1069	0.8836	0.1256
12	-0.021	-0.1209	0.8207	0.1433	-0.0127	-0.1198	0.8479	0.143
13	-0.0171	-0.1276	0.7839	0.1552	-0.0095	-0.1305	0.8108	0.1558
14	-0.0168	-0.1328	0.7461	0.163	-0.011	-0.1384	0.7735	0.1648
15	-0.0191	-0.1365	0.7084	0.1676	-0.0155	-0.1438	0.7365	0.171
16	-0.0231	-0.1386	0.6713	0.1698	-0.0214	-0.1468	0.7003	0.1747
17	-0.028	-0.1394	0.6352	0.1701	-0.0279	-0.1481	0.6649	0.1766
18	-0.0335	-0.1391	0.6001	0.169	-0.0343	-0.1479	0.6304	0.1768
19	-0.0389	-0.1377	0.5663	0.1668	-0.0405	-0.1465	0.5968	0.1757
20	-0.0442	-0.1355	0.5338	0.1636	-0.0461	-0.1443	0.5641	0.1735
21	-0.0492	-0.1326	0.5024	0.1599	-0.0513	-0.1414	0.5324	0.1705
22	-0.0537	-0.1292	0.4721	0.1556	-0.0559	-0.1379	0.5015	0.1667
23	-0.0578	-0.1254	0.443	0.151	-0.06	-0.134	0.4716	0.1624
24	-0.0614	-0.1212	0.415	0.1462	-0.0637	-0.1297	0.4426	0.1577
25	-0.0646	-0.1167	0.3879	0.1411	-0.0669	-0.1251	0.4145	0.1526
26	-0.0673	-0.1121	0.3619	0.1359	-0.0696	-0.1204	0.3873	0.1474
27	-0.0695	-0.1073	0.3369	0.1307	-0.072	-0.1154	0.3611	0.142
28	-0.0714	-0.1024	0.3128	0.1255	-0.074	-0.1104	0.3357	0.1365
29	-0.0729	-0.0975	0.2896	0.1204	-0.0756	-0.1053	0.3113	0.131
30	-0.0741	-0.0925	0.2674	0.1153	-0.0769	-0.1001	0.2877	0.1256
31	-0.0749	-0.0876	0.246	0.1103	-0.0779	-0.0949	0.2651	0.1203
32	-0.0755	-0.0827	0.2256	0.1055	-0.0786	-0.0898	0.2434	0.115
33	-0.0757	-0.0778	0.206	0.1008	-0.079	-0.0846	0.2225	0.1099
34	-0.0758	-0.0731	0.1873	0.0963	-0.0791	-0.0796	0.2026	0.1049
35	-0.0756	-0.0684	0.1694	0.0919	-0.079	-0.0746	0.1835	0.1001
36	-0.0752	-0.0638	0.1524	0.0877	-0.0788	-0.0698	0.1653	0.0955
37	-0.0746	-0.0594	0.1362	0.0837	-0.0783	-0.065	0.1479	0.0911
38	-0.0739	-0.0551	0.1208	0.0799	-0.0776	-0.0604	0.1314	0.0869
39	-0.073	-0.0509	0.1061	0.0763	-0.0767	-0.0559	0.1158	0.0828
40	-0.0719	-0.0469	0.0923	0.0729	-0.0757	-0.0515	0.1009	0.079

Footnotes

**  We thank Roberto Billi, Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, Mark Gertler, Christopher Gust, Michel Juillard, Jinil Kim, Lars Svensson, Linda Tesar, Daniel Waggoner, John Williams, and Tao Zha for insightful discussions and comments. We also benefited from comments at presentations at the Atlanta Fed, SAIS Johns Hopkins, the San Francisco Fed, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Italy, and the NBER Summer Institute (Impulse and Propagation). The views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System. Return to text

***  Contact information: Martin Bodenstein: phone (202) 452 3796, [email protected]; Christopher Erceg: phone (202) 452 2575, [email protected]; Luca Guerrieri: Telephone (202) 452 2550, E-mail [email protected]. Return to text

1.  In support of this perspective, the correlation between U.S. growth and that of its major trading partners is low and has shown little tendency to rise even as trade ties have grown, as documented by [Doyle and Faust 2005]. Return to text

2.  Alternatively, a large literature has used dynamic factor analysis to decompose output variation into country-specific and global factors, e.g., [Kose et al. 2003] and [Stock and Watson 2005]. However, the global factors reflect both the effects of shocks that are correlated across countries (such as oil shocks), as well as the spillover effects of country-specific shocks. Return to text

3.  See [Christiano et al. 2005] and [Smets and Wouters 2003]. Return to text

4.  [Stockman and Tesar 1995] extend the model of [Backus et al. 1992] to include consumption preference shocks. They argue that such shocks can more closely align the model's predictions on the comovement of prices and quantities with the data for the United States. Return to text

5.  As highlighted by [Cole and Obstfeld 1991], exchange rate fluctuations provide insurance against country-specific technology shocks. Return to text

6.  In an open economy setting, [McCallum 2000], [Orphanides and Wieland 2000], [Svensson 2004], and [Jeanne and Svensson 2007] show how to use an exchange rate depreciation to facilitate the escape from a liquidity trap. Return to text

7.  More formally, we follow [Jeanne and Svensson 2007] in assuming that $V\left( MB_{t+1}/P_{t}\right) <V_{0}$, $V^{\prime}\left( MB_{t+1} /P_{t}\right) >0$, $V^{\prime\prime}\left( MB_{t+1}/P_{t}\right) <0$ for $MB_{t+1}<\bar{m}$, the satiation level of real money. And $V\left( MB_{t+1}/P_{t}\right) =V_{0}$ for $MB_{t+1}\geq\bar{m}$, and $V^{\prime }\left( MB_{t+1}/P_{t}\right) \rightarrow\infty$ for $MB_{t+1} /P_{t}\rightarrow0.$ Return to text

8.  The assumption of an intermediation fee ensures that given our solution technique the evolution of net foreign assets is stationary. See [Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe 2003] and [Bodenstein 2009] for a discussion. The intermediation cost is asymmetric, as foreign households do not face these costs. Rather, they collect profits on the monopoly rents associated with these intermediation costs. Return to text

9.  [Jung et al. 2005], [Eggertsson and Woodford 2003], [Adam and Billi 2006], and [Adam and Billi 2007] derive the optimal policy under the zero bound constraint in a closed economy. In the face of contractionary shocks, optimal monetary policy calls for keeping interest rates lower for an extended period in a liquidity trap relative to normal times. This feature is captured by interest rate smoothing in our model. Return to text

10.  Following [Anderson 1999], instead of using the steady state values as end point, we use a mid-way point from the linear solution computed from standard algorithms. As shown by [Anderson 1999], this alternative procedure leads to a shorter length of the simulation horizon needed to achieve any desired level of accuracy for those values that are at the beginning of the simulation. Return to text

11.  [Christiano 2004] suggests an alternative shooting algorithm that also exploits piecewise linearity. [Hebden et al. 2009] implement the max-operator through a sequence of anticipated monetary policy innovations, which can be shown to be equivalent to the method of [Jung et al. 2005] as argued in Appendix A. Return to text

12.  In the case of a linear model, the effects of a shock are unrelated to the initial conditions. Return to text

13.  We investigate the sensitivity of our results to the initial baseline path in Section 5.1. Return to text

14.  In Figure 1, real variables are plotted in deviation from their steady-state values, while nominal variables are in levels to highlight the zero bound constraint. The policy rate, real interest rate and inflation are annualized. Return to text

15.  A higher degree of inflation inertia due to lagged indexation as in [Christiano et al. 2005] implies a smaller reaction of inflation on impact. However, the inflation response becomes more persistent. The real interest rate responds less on impact but remains elevated relative to the case shown in Figure 1 as time progresses. Accordingly, the behavior of output and the output gap turn out to be more or less unchanged as do the spillover effects, as shown in Appendix B. Return to text

16.  Because the model we solve is linear when the zero lower bound does not bind, the dashed lines in Figures 2 and 3 can also be interpreted as the responses starting from the model's steady state, rather than the severe recession. Return to text

17.  As illustrated in Appendix B, similar results obtain if the foreign shock is constructed through time variation in the discount factor. Return to text

18.  Appendix B shows that the magnification of the spillover effects of foreign shocks when the home economy is at the zero lower bound is not particular to the consumption shock discussed so far. Return to text

19.  We relegate the formal proofs to Appendix A. Return to text

20.  It bears emphasizing that the spillover effects are constant at the level shown in the bottom right panel of Figure 6 if the zero lower bound constraint does not bind. Return to text

21.  The shock is assumed to follow an AR(1) process with persistence parameter equal to 0.95. Return to text

22.  More specifically, the solid line in Figure 10 shows the difference between the dotted and dolid lines of Figure 9. Return to text

23.  A high value for the trade elasticity skews the determination of trade flows towards the price channel. In that case, the contraction of home GDP is reduced if the foreign country is also mired in a liquidity trap. Return to text

24.  The extension to the case in which the interest rate does not reach zero on impact is straightforward, but is omitted for brevity. Return to text

25.  There is a proliferation of the number of linear systems for more complex cases in which the ZLB binds in both countries Return to text

26.  Notice that $r_{t}$ is expressed in deviation from its steady state level. Thus, using the notation of equation 17, $r_{t} = i_{t}-\bar{i}$ and $r^{not}_{t}=i^{not}_{t}-\bar{i}$. Return to text

27.  An alternative way to think about the dynamics under the zero lower bound is in terms of monetary policy shocks. Instead of replacing $\bar{B}$ by $\bar{B}^{\ast}$ and introducing $\bar{d}$, one can simply add a monetary policy shock in the policy rule of size $\varepsilon_{m,t} =\max\left( -\bar{r}-r_{t}^{not},0\right)$ and $r_{t}=r_{t}^{not} +\varepsilon_{m,t}$. Return to text

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