INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

[2001 Revision Notice Below]

Industrial production fell 0.3 percent in November. At 137.1 percent of its 1992 average, output was 5.9 percent below its level in November 2000. Manufacturing output declined 0.2 percent in November. Excluding a 6.4 percent increase in the production of motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output dropped 0.7 percent, the third month of similarly sized declines. Utilities production fell 2.0 percent, and the output at mines rose 0.2 percent. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined 0.3 percentage point, to 74.7 percent, a level 6.0 percentage points below that of November 2000 and 7.4 percentage points below its 1967-2000 average.

 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION:  SUMMARY
 Seasonally adjusted
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                               |                    1992=100                     |                  Percent change
                               | ----------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------
                               |       2001                                      |   2001                          |    Nov. '00 to 
 Industrial production         |       Aug.       Sept.        Oct.        Nov.  |   Aug.   Sept.    Oct.    Nov.  |      Nov. '01 
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               |                                                 |                                 |
  Total index                  |      140.0       138.8       137.6       137.1  |    -.3     -.8     -.9     -.3  |           -5.9 
     Previous estimates        |      139.8       138.5       136.9              |    -.4     -.9    -1.2          |                
                               |                                                 |                                 |
  Major market groups:         |                                                 |                                 |
  Products, total              |      129.4       128.1       126.7       126.5  |    -.7    -1.0    -1.0     -.1  |           -5.4 
     Consumer goods            |      121.4       120.6       119.6       120.1  |    -.7     -.7     -.8      .4  |           -1.6 
     Business equipment        |      173.3       168.6       166.0       164.9  |   -1.6    -2.7    -1.6     -.6  |          -13.5 
     Construction supplies     |      138.8       138.9       135.3       135.2  |    1.1      .1    -2.6      .0  |           -3.6 
  Materials                    |      157.6       156.8       155.7       154.8  |     .2     -.5     -.7     -.5  |           -6.7 
                               |                                                 |                                 |
  Major industry groups:       |                                                 |                                 |
  Manufacturing                |      144.5       143.2       142.0       141.7  |    -.5     -.9     -.9     -.2  |           -6.3 
     Durable                   |      178.9       176.4       173.7       173.6  |    -.6    -1.4    -1.5     -.1  |           -8.5 
     Nondurable                |      111.1       110.8       110.6       110.3  |    -.4     -.3     -.1     -.3  |           -3.7 
  Mining                       |      101.4       102.1       100.0       100.2  |    -.5      .7    -2.1      .2  |            -.9 
  Utilities                    |      121.1       119.1       118.7       116.4  |    2.4    -1.6     -.4    -2.0  |           -6.3 
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                               |                                                                                   |    Capacity
                               |                                Percent of capacity                                |     growth
                               | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------
                               |     Average        1982     1988-89       2000  |   2001                          |    Nov. '00 to 
 Capacity utilization          |  1967-2000          Low        High       Nov.  |   Aug.   Sept.    Oct.    Nov.  |      Nov. '01 
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                               |                                                 |                                 |
  Total industry               |       82.1        71.1        85.4        80.7  |   76.4    75.7    75.0    74.7  |            1.7 
     Previous estimates        |                                                 |   76.3    75.5    74.6          |                
                               |                                                 |                                 |
  Manufacturing                |       81.1        69.0        85.7        79.2  |   74.6    73.9    73.2    73.0  |            1.6 
     Advanced processing       |       80.5        71.0        84.2        78.0  |   74.5    73.5    72.8    72.8  |             .9 
     Primary processing        |       82.2        65.7        88.3        81.0  |   74.8    74.5    73.8    73.3  |            2.7 
  Mining                       |       87.6        80.3        88.0        90.4  |   90.4    90.9    89.0    89.2  |             .4 
  Utilities                    |       87.7        75.9        92.6        93.3  |   87.7    85.9    85.2    83.1  |            5.2 
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 Note:  Estimates for November are preliminary.  Estimates from August to October are revised.
 
 
 

Market Groups

The output of consumer goods increased 0.4 percent in November. A 3.3 percent increase in the production of durables was led by a 6.4 percent increase in automotive products. Despite increasing 1.3 percent, the production of home electronics was more than 18 percent below its year-ago level. A 2.8 percent drop in energy products pulled down the nondurable consumer goods category, which slipped 0.4 percent. The production of nondurable non-energy products was flat; an increase in the output of chemical products offset declines in the production of foods and tobacco, clothing, and paper products.

The production of business equipment declined 0.6 percent in November. An increase in transit equipment was more than offset by further decreases in information-processing equipment and in industrial and other equipment. The output for each major category has fallen 13 percent to 14 percent in the past twelve months.

The output of defense and space equipment rose 0.4 percent, its third consecutive monthly increase. The output of construction supplies was unchanged as gains in plywood and flooring offset declines in gypsum and construction steel. The production of business supplies, which fell 1.2 percent, has declined 7.6 percent in the past twelve months.

The production of industrial materials fell 0.5 percent; both the durable and nondurable materials groups declined. Energy materials increased 0.1 percent as improvements in primary fuels more than offset declines in converted energy materials.

Industry Groups

After consecutive decreases of 0.9 percent in September and October, manufacturing output declined 0.2 percent in November. The overall factory operating rate slipped 0.2 percentage point, to 73.0 percent, a level 6.2 percentage points below its year-ago level and 8.1 percentage points below its 1967-2000 average. The production of motor vehicles and parts jumped 6.4 percent; the production indexes both for autos and for light trucks registered large increases. Even so, the production of durable goods slipped 0.1 percent; widespread declines in the sector's remaining industries offset the large increase in motor vehicle output. Among durables, the output of primary metals and of aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment fell the most. Among nondurables, which declined 0.3 percent, only chemicals and products and textile mill products rose. A 2.0 percent decline in the output of petroleum products offset almost all of its October increase.

Production at mines ticked up 0.2 percent in November; the utilization rate rose 0.2 percentage point, to 89.2 percent, a level 1.6 percentage points above its 1967-2000 average. A warm November pushed down the output of utilities, which decreased 2.0 percent. The operating rate at utilities fell 2.1 percentage points; at 83.1 percent, it is more than 10 percentage points below its year-ago level and 4.6 percentage points below its 1967-2000 average.

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

On November 27, the Federal Reserve Board published revisions to the index of industrial production (IP), to the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization, and to the index of industrial use of electric power. The updated measures reflected the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical of annual revisions. The new source data were for recent years, primarily 1999 and 2000, although data from 1992 onward was subject to revision.

Industrial production and capacity utilization will continue to be based on the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) until the 2002 annual revision, after which they will be constructed from the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). The new NAICS-related production indexes will be based on annual output measures that are constructed by reclassifying the establishments in historical Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries under NAICS; annual output indexes constructed this way will maximize the reliability and historical consistency of the IP industry detail.

The updating of source data for IP in the 2001 annual revision included annual data from the 1999 Bureau of the Census Annual Survey of Manufactures and from selected editions of its 1999 and 2000 Current Industrial Reports. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 1999 and 2000 also were introduced. The updating included revisions to the monthly indicator for each industry (either physical product data, production-worker hours, or electric power usage) and to seasonal factors.

Capacity and capacity utilization were revised to incorporate preliminary data from the 2000 Survey of Plant Capacity of the Bureau of the Census, which covers manufacturing, along with other new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy, and other organizations. The statistics on the industrial use of electric power incorporated additional information received from utilities for the past few years and included some data from the 1997 Census of Manufactures and the 1998 and 1999 Annual Survey of Manufactures.

The revision release and revised data are available on the Board's web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17). The revised data also are available through the web site of the Department of Commerce. Further information on these revisions is available from the Board's Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197).

G.17 Release Tables: