International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP)
October 1989
Savings Rates and Output Variability in Industrial Countries
Garry J. Schinasi and Joseph E. Gagnon
Abstract:
The economics literature offers competing hypotheses about the relationship between savings rates and output variability. This paper examines data for eight industrial countries to determine if there is a discernible pattern between savings rates and cyclical volatility of output. We find a striking coincidence of high gross savings rates and high output variability when real GDP gaps are estimated from a constant growth trend. But there is also strong evidence that this coincidence is an artifact. The major conclusion is that there is not a robust relationship between average gross savings rates and the variability of real GDP gaps (measured as deviations from trends) between 1960-Q1 and 1988-Q4. We also report a number of interesting features regarding estimated autoregressive processes for output in the major foreign industrial countries.
PDF: Full Paper
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