Meet the Researchers
Michele Modugno
[email protected]
Education
- Ph.D., Economics, Université libre de Bruxelles, 2011
- Macroeconomic news and asset prices
Chief, Financial and Macroeconomic Stability Studies
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2021 - presentPrincipal Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2016 - 2021Senior Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2015 - 2016Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2013 - 2015Chief Economist
Now-Casting Economics Limited
2011 - 2013Postdoctoral researcher
Universite' libre de Bruxelles
2011 - 2013Economist
European Central Bank
2007 - 2011
- Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Thiago R.T. Ferreira, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno
International Journal of Forecasting (Forthcoming)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.04.005
See also » FRB Working Paper (2021) - Sowing the Seeds of Financial Imbalances: The Role of Macroeconomic Performance
Elena Afanasyeva, Sam Jerow, Seung Jung Lee, and Michele Modugno
Journal of Financial Stability (Forthcoming)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2020.100839
See also » FRB Working Paper (2020) - Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Matteo Luciani, and Michele Modugno
International Finance Discussion Papers (2023)
https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2023.1385 - Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
Michiel De Pooter, Giovanni Favara, Michele Modugno, and Jason Wu
Journal of International Money and Finance (2021)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102323
See also » FRB Working Paper (2020) - The Information Content of Stress Test Announcements
Luca Guerrieri and Michele Modugno
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2021)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.012 - Macroeconomic News and Stock Prices Over the FOMC Cycle
Jack McCoy, Michele Modugno, Dino Palazzo, and Steve Sharpe
FEDS Notes (2020)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2745 - Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission
David Aikman, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang, and Michele Modugno
International Journal of Central Banking (2020) - The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability: A Narrative Investigation
Elena Afanasyeva, Seung Jung Lee, Michele Modugno, and Francisco Palomino
FEDS Notes (2018)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2253 - The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability: A Quantitative Exploration
Elena Afanasyeva, Seung Jung Lee, Michele Modugno, and Francisco Palomino
FEDS Notes (2018)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2254 - Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
Carlo Altavilla, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno
Journal of Monetary Economics (2017)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.08.004
See also » FRB Working Paper (2014) - A Now-Casting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?
Daniela Bragoli and Michele Modugno
International Journal of Forecasting (2017)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.03.002
See also » FRB Working Paper (2016) - A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area
Antonello D'Agostino, Michele Modugno, and Chiara Osbat
International Journal of Central Banking (2017)
See also » FRB Working Paper (2015) - Nowcasting Turkish GDP and News Decomposition
Michele Modugno, Baris Soybilgen, and Ege Yazgan
International Journal of Forecasting (2016)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.07.001
See also » FRB Working Paper (2016) - Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
David Aikman, Andreas Lehnert, Nellie Liang, and Michele Modugno
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2016)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.055 - Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
Antonello D'Agostino, Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, and Michele Modugno
Dynamic Factor Models (2016)
https://doi.org/10.1108/S0731-9053201635
See also » FRB Working Paper (2015) - Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve
Laura Coroneo, Domenico Giannone, and Michele Modugno
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2016)
https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2015.1052456
See also » FRB Working Paper (2014) - The Importance of Updating: Evidence from a Brazilian Nowcasting Model
Daniela Bragoli, Luca Metelli, and Michele Modugno
Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis (2015)
https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrtfl958gmp
See also » FRB Working Paper (2014) - Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Factor Models on Data Sets with Arbitrary Pattern of Missing Data
Marta Banbura and Michele Modugno
Journal of Applied Econometrics (2014)
https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2306 - Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow
Marta Banbura, Domenico Giannone, Michele Modugno, and Lucrezia Reichlin
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, vol. 2 (2013)
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53683-9.00004-9 - Now-Casting Inflation Using High Frequency Data
Michele Modugno
International Journal of Forecasting (2013)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.12.003 - An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area
Domenico Giannone, Jerome Henry, Magdalena Lalik, and Michele Modugno
Review of Economics and Statistics (2012)
https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00317 - The Forecasting Power of International Yield Curve Linkages
Michele Modugno and Kleopatra Nikolaou
Working paper series (European Central Bank) (2009)
seminar
December 21, 2023Banca d'Italia/Rome
The Information Content of Stress Tests Announcements
conference
December 16-18, 2023CFE-CMStatistics 2023/Berlin
Macro News and Firms' Behavior
conference
October 31 and November 1, 20235th Biennial Conference on Financial Stability/Banco de Mexico/Mexico City
The Information Content of Stress Tests Announcements
discussion
October 31 and November 1, 20235th Biennial Conference on Financial Stability/Banco de Mexico/Mexico City
Financial Shock Transmission to Heterogeneous Firms: The Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraint Channel, by L. Chiţu, M. Grothe, T. Schulze, and I. Van Robays
seminar
September 21, 2023National Bank of Croatia/Zagreb
Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World
discussion
September 18-19, 20239th Research Workshop of the MPC Task Force on Banking Analysis for Monetary Policy/National Bank of Croatia/Split
The combined effect of CCyB release and monetary policy easing. Theory and evidence based on the COVID-19 crisis, by C. Jude and G. Levieuge.
conference
June 8-9, 2023QFFE 2023/Marseille
The Information Content of Stress Tests Announcements
seminar
June 6, 2023Bank of Albania/Tirana
The Information Content of Stress Tests Announcements
conference
October 21, 2022Workshop "Measurement in Economics" Chair/Paris School of Economics/Paris
Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model
conference
September 12-13, 20228th Research Workshop of the MPC Task Force on Banking Analysis for Monetary Policy/Bank of Greece/Athens
The Information Content of Stress Tests Announcements
conference
December 2021University of Bordeaux/webinar
The Information Content of Stress Tests Announcements
seminar
November 2020Queen Mary University of London/webinar
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
seminar
September 2020Universita' Ca' Foscari Venezia/webinar
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
seminar
June 2020Universita di Napoli Federico II/webinar
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
conference
June 2019Asset Pricing Workshop 2019/York
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
seminar
February 2019Banco de la República/Bogota
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises
seminar
February 2019Banco de la República/Bogota
Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice
seminar
June 2018Kiel Summer School on Economic Policy/Kiel
Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice
discussion
October 2017ECB conference on Credit, Banking and Monetary Policy/Frankfurt am Main
Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect, by G. K. Can, R. S. Gurkaynak, and S. S. Lee
seminar
September 2017CEMLA-IMF workshop
Nowcasting in Theory and in Practice
seminar
September 2017Banco de Mexico/Mexico City
Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission
seminar
June 2017Otaru University of Commerce/Otaru
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
May 2017University of Tokyo/Tokyo
Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission
seminar
May 2017Keio University/Tokyo
Credit, Financial Conditions, and Monetary Policy Transmission
conference
November 2016System Committee Meeting on Financial Structure and Regulation/San Francisco
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
conference
June 2016IAAE2016/Milan
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
conference
June 2016ISF2016/Santander
A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?
seminar
June 2014Bank of England/London
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
conference
May 2016System Macro Meeting/Nashville
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
conference
May 2016System Macro Meeting/Nashville
A Nowcasting Model for Canada: Do U.S. Variables Matter?
seminar
April 2016Norges Bank/Oslo
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
conference
April 2016First annual ECB Macroprudential Policy and Research Conference/Frankfurt
Financial Vulnerabilities, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Monetary Policy
seminar
October 2015University of Padova
Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
seminar
October 2015University College of London
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
October 2015LUISS University/Rome
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
October 2015Queen Mary University of London
Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
conference
August 20152015 World Congress of the Econometric Society/Montreal
Unspanned Macroeconomic factors in the Yield Curve
conference
June 2015ISF2015/Riverside
Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
conference
June 2015ISF2015/Riverside
Nowcasting China
seminar
June 2015Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Ispra
Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models
seminar
June 2015Banque de France/Paris
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
June 2015Bank of Finland/Helsinki
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
conference
May 20158th Nordic Econometric Meeting/Helsinki
Unspanned Macroeconomic factors in the Yield Curve
conference
December 20148th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics/Pisa
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
December 2014Bocconi University/Milan
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
conference
May 2014Macroeconomics & Econometrics conference, University of Birmingham
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
May 2014University of York
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
seminar
May 2014Universite' libre de Bruxelles
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
discussion
April 2014Macro System Meeting/Kansas City
Now-casting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation, by E. Knotek and S. Zaman
conference
April 201422nd Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics/New York
Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields
Awards
- 2019
AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH COUNCIL
ARC Discovery Project 2019
Conference Organization
9-10 May, 2024 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC, U.S.
The Macro Seeds of Financial Imbalances.
Organizer
17-18 December 2019 | Melbourne
Advances in Applied Macro-Finance
Organizer
3-4 December 2018 | Istanbul
Advances in Applied Macro-Finance
Organizer
1-2 September 2014 | Istanbul
Advances in Applied Macro-Finance and Forecasting
Organizer
Referee
- American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
- Economic Journal
- Economic Letters
- Economic Modelling
- Empirical Economics
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Journal of Applied Econometrics
- Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
- Journal of Forecasting
- Journal of Monetary Economics
- Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
- Macroeconomic Dynamics
- Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
- The Review of Economics and Statistics