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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Accessible Version

Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on January 24-25, 2012.

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2012 through 2014 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2007 through 2011.

Change in real GDP
Percent

  2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
Actual 2.2 (3.3) (0.5) 3.1 1.6 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 3.0 3.8 4.3 3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.7 3.2 4.0 2.6
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.2 2.8 3.3 2.3
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.2

Unemployment rate
Percent

  2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
Actual 4.8 6.9 9.9 9.6 8.7 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 8.6 8.2 7.7 6.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.5 8.1 7.6 6.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 8.2 7.4 6.7 5.2
Lower End of Range - - - - - 7.8 7.0 6.3 5.0

PCE inflation
Percent

  2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
Actual 3.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 2.5 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.4 1.4 1.6 2.0
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.0

Core PCE inflation
Percent

  2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
Actual 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.0 1.7 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.0 2.0 n.a.
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.8 2.0 2.0 n.a.
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.5 1.5 1.6 n.a.
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.3 1.4 1.4 n.a.

Note: Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. The data for the change in real GDP, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation shown for 2011 incorporate the advance estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2011, which the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on January 27, 2012. This information was not available to FOMC meeting participants at the time of their meeting.


 

Figure 2. Overview of FOMC participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy

Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming

  2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Number of Participants 3 3 5 4 2

Note: In the upper panel, the height of each bar denotes the number of FOMC participants who judge that, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy, the first increase in the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0 to 1/4 percent will occur in the specified calendar year.


 

Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming
Number of Participants With Projected Targets

Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End
(Percent)
2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
0 - 0.37 14 11 6  
0.38 - 0.62 1 1 2  
0.63 - 0.87   2 1  
0.88 - 1.12 2 1 2  
1.13 - 1.37        
1.38 - 1.62     1  
1.63 - 1.87   1    
1.88 - 2.12   1 1  
2.13 - 2.37        
2.38 - 2.62     3  
2.63 - 2.87     1  
2.88 - 3.12        
3.13 - 3.37        
3.38 - 3.62        
3.63 - 3.87       1
3.88 - 4.12       7
4.13 - 4.37       3
4.38 - 4.62       6
4.63 - 4.87        

Note: In the lower panel, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/4 percent) of an individual participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run.

Figure 3.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
2 - 2.1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.2 - 2.3 4 1 0 0 0 0 4 3
2.4 - 2.5 4 6 1 0 0 0 8 8
2.6 - 2.7 4 5 1 1 0 1 4 4
2.8 - 2.9 1 3 4 1 2 1 0 1
3 - 3.1 2 0 7 7 1 3 1 1
3.2 - 3.3 0 1 2 4 2 1 0 0
3.4 - 3.5 0 1 1 2 5 5 0 0
3.6 - 3.7 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
3.8 - 3.9 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 0
4 - 4.1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0
4.2 - 4.3 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0
4.4 - 4.5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
5 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7
5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 3
5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 - 6.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5
6.2 - 6.3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
6.6 - 6.7 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0
6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
7 - 7.1 0 0 2 0 4 2 0 0
7.2 - 7.3 0 0 1 0 3 3 0 0
7.4 - 7.5 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 0
7.6 - 7.7 0 0 3 0 5 4 0 0
7.8 - 7.9 2 0 2 2 0 1 0 0
8 - 8.1 1 1 6 5 0 1 0 0
8.2 - 8.3 6 0 2 6 0 0 0 0
8.4 - 8.5 5 5 0 1 0 0 0 0
8.6 - 8.7 3 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
8.8 - 8.9 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. 

Figure 3.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
1.3 - 1.4 5 4 5 2 0 0 0 0
1.5 - 1.6 5 3 3 5 5 6 0 3
1.7 - 1.8 4 4 3 4 2 3 0 2
1.9 - 2 2 3 4 4 9 6 17 12
2.1 - 2.2 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0
2.3 - 2.4 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0
2.5 - 2.6 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
2.7 - 2.8 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

 NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Figure 3.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2012-14

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2012 2013 2014
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
1.3 - 1.4 1 2 3 4 1 3
1.5 - 1.6 10 6 7 5 5 4
1.7 - 1.8 3 4 1 3 3 4
1.9 - 2 3 3 6 4 8 5
2.1 - 2.2 0 2 0 1 0 1

NOTE: Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Figure 3.E. Distribution of participants' projections for the target federal funds rate, 2012-14 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants

Percent range 2012 2013 2014 Longer Run
January
projections
January
projections
January
projections
January
projections
0 - 0.37 14 11 6 0
0.38 - 0.62 1 1 2 0
0.63 - 0.87 0 2 1 0
0.88 - 1.12 2 1 2 0
1.13 - 1.37 0 0 0 0
1.38 - 1.62 0 0 1 0
1.63 - 1.87 0 1 0 0
1.88 - 2.12 0 1 1 0
2.13 - 2.37 0 0 0 0
2.38 - 2.62 0 0 3 0
2.63 - 2.87 0 0 1 0
2.88 - 3.12 0 0 0 0
3.13 - 3.37 0 0 0 0
3.38 - 3.62 0 0 0 0
3.63 - 3.87 0 0 0 1
3.88 - 4.12 0 0 0 7
4.13 - 4.37 0 0 0 3
4.38 - 4.62 0 0 0 6
4.63 - 4.87 0 0 0 0

NOTE: The target funds rate is measured as the level of the target rate at the end of the calendar year or in the longer run. 

Figure 4. Uncertainty and risks in economic projections

Histograms, eight panels. For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box "Forecast Uncertainty." Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Uncertainty about GDP growth
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
January projections 0 1 16
November projections 0 1 16

Uncertainty about Unemployment rate
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
January projections 0 3 14
November projections 0 3 14

Uncertainty about PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
January projections 1 6 10
November projections 1 4 12

Uncertainty about Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Lower Broadly similar Higher
January projections 1 7 9
November projections 1 5 11

Risks to GDP Growth
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
January projections 11 6 0
November projections 11 6 0

Risks to Unemployment rate
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
January projections 1 5 11
November projections 0 6 11

Risks to PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
January projections 3 11 3
November projections 4 10 3

Risks to Core PCE inflation
Number of participants

  Weighted to downside Broadly balanced Weighted to upside
January projections 3 11 3
November projections 4 10 3

NOTE: For definitions of uncertainty and risks in economic projections, see the box “Forecast Uncertainty.” Definitions of variables are in the general
note to table 1.

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Last update: February 15, 2012