Abstract: This paper utilizes frequency-domain techniques to identify and characterize
economically important properties of government spending. Using post-war data
for
the United States, the paper first identifies peaks in the estimated spectra of
the
major components of fiscal spending. Second, the paper examines the
relationship between
these fiscal variables and various measures of aggregate economic activity. The
analysis reveals that defense spending is best modeled as exogenous with respect
to
the aggregate economy and that nondefense spending (growth) appears to be white
noise.
Further, the unemployment rate has a very high coherency at the business cycle
frequencies
with unemployment insurance but far smaller coherency with other transfer
payments.
Finally, the paper finds a moderate degree of direct substitutability between
certain
types of government spending and private consumption and in the process
illustrates how
spectral techniques can be readily combined with a standard intertemporal
optimizing model.
Keywords: Government spending, spectral analysis
Full paper (2841 KB PDF)
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