Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Domestic Auto and Truck Production

Seasonal factors for auto and truck production have been reestimated using final production data through October 2011 and manufacturers' assembly plans through March 2012; they also reflect the holiday schedule in place from the new domestic autoworkers' agreement signed in the 3rd quarter of 2011. Factors have been revised back to June 2011 and extended through September 2012.

Monthly figures for motor vehicle assemblies in millions of units at an annual rate are published in Table 3 of the G.17 release. The formula for seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of auto and truck production (in millions of units) for each month is

    
       SAAR = ((NSA data in units/1,000,000) * 12)/(SF * .01).

The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) data are obtained from Ward's Communications, and the seasonal factors (SF), which contain adjustments for holiday and length-of-month effects as well as normal seasonal variation, are shown in the table below under "Regular Seasonal Factors."

The table below also shows a set of seasonal factors on a weekday average basis in the columns under "Weekday-basis Seasonal Factors"; the number of production days in a month, or weekdays, is shown separately. Using this information, the formula for seasonally adjusted annual rates of auto and truck production (in millions of units) for each month is

    
       SAAR = ((NSA data in units/1,000,000) * 260)/(weekdays * SFW * .01).

Multiplying by 260, the average number of weekdays in a year, converts the weekday average production to an annual production rate. This formula reduces to

    
       SAAR = (NSA data in units * .026) / (weekdays * SFW).

A comma-delimited text file containing these seasonal factors is available for download here.

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Domestic Auto and Truck Production

	Regular Seasonal Factors			Weekday-basis Seasonal Factors
	Autos	Total Trucks	Light Trucks	Autos	Total Trucks	Light Trucks	Weekdays
Jan-1998	89.68	89.71	89.99	88.32	88.35	88.63	22
Feb-1998	99.57	101.25	101.53	107.87	109.69	109.99	20
Mar-1998	113.55	114.34	114.62	111.83	112.61	112.88	22
Apr-1998	105.41	106.46	106.32	103.81	104.84	104.71	22
May-1998	105.15	105.39	105.56	108.48	108.73	108.92	21
Jun-1998	102.70	101.53	101.32	101.15	99.99	99.79	22
Jul-1998	74.24	67.78	66.23	69.94	63.86	62.39	23
Aug-1998	99.62	95.41	95.11	102.78	98.44	98.13	21
Sep-1998	104.04	110.29	110.77	102.46	108.61	109.09	22
Oct-1998	112.53	113.29	113.41	110.82	111.57	111.69	22
Nov-1998	93.96	93.48	93.77	96.94	96.44	96.75	21
Dec-1998	88.57	89.47	89.50	83.44	84.28	84.31	23
Jan-1999	89.82	89.60	89.95	92.67	92.44	92.80	21
Feb-1999	99.37	101.16	101.44	107.65	109.59	109.90	20
Mar-1999	118.59	119.54	119.83	111.71	112.61	112.89	23
Apr-1999	105.14	106.22	106.09	103.55	104.61	104.48	22
May-1999	104.81	105.12	105.25	108.14	108.45	108.59	21
Jun-1999	112.87	108.01	107.50	111.16	106.38	105.87	22
Jul-1999	63.77	61.58	60.30	62.80	60.64	59.38	22
Aug-1999	105.84	104.65	104.59	104.23	103.06	103.00	22
Sep-1999	105.11	107.02	107.29	103.51	105.40	105.67	22
Oct-1999	106.87	107.73	107.87	110.26	111.15	111.29	21
Nov-1999	99.80	99.20	99.53	98.29	97.70	98.03	22
Dec-1999	87.96	89.44	89.50	82.86	84.25	84.31	23
Jan-2000	94.47	93.95	94.16	97.47	96.94	97.15	21
Feb-2000	104.57	106.14	106.45	107.89	109.51	109.83	21
Mar-2000	118.36	119.75	120.08	111.50	112.81	113.12	23
Apr-2000	94.42	95.05	94.97	102.29	102.97	102.89	20
May-2000	109.45	110.32	110.48	103.10	103.92	104.07	23
Jun-2000	112.27	110.76	110.49	110.57	109.08	108.81	22
Jul-2000	62.32	60.76	59.63	64.30	62.69	61.52	21
Aug-2000	111.31	109.52	109.58	104.86	103.17	103.23	23
Sep-2000	100.80	98.58	98.61	104.00	101.71	101.74	21
Oct-2000	111.51	113.10	113.20	109.82	111.39	111.49	22
Nov-2000	99.61	99.19	99.45	98.10	97.69	97.95	22
Dec-2000	82.13	84.11	84.20	84.73	86.78	86.88	21
Jan-2001	99.46	98.17	98.33	93.70	92.48	92.63	23
Feb-2001	99.57	100.88	101.16	107.87	109.28	109.59	20
Mar-2001	112.85	114.55	114.89	111.14	112.81	113.15	22
Apr-2001	99.60	100.03	99.95	102.76	103.20	103.12	21
May-2001	114.21	115.67	115.82	107.59	108.97	109.11	23
Jun-2001	106.79	105.54	105.31	110.18	108.90	108.65	21
Jul-2001	62.88	60.97	59.56	61.93	60.04	58.66	22
Aug-2001	113.03	110.85	110.99	106.48	104.42	104.56	23
Sep-2001	98.31	96.16	96.34	106.51	104.17	104.37	20
Oct-2001	116.33	118.26	118.36	109.58	111.40	111.50	23
Nov-2001	99.53	99.36	99.62	98.02	97.85	98.11	22
Dec-2001	76.69	78.70	78.81	79.12	81.19	81.31	21
Jan-2002	100.06	97.64	97.72	94.26	91.98	92.06	23
Feb-2002	99.45	100.43	100.70	107.74	108.80	109.09	20
Mar-2002	102.04	103.62	103.92	105.28	106.91	107.22	21
Apr-2002	109.39	109.77	109.64	107.73	108.11	107.98	22
May-2002	113.09	115.05	115.15	106.54	108.38	108.48	23
Jun-2002	101.16	100.78	100.60	109.59	109.18	108.98	20
Jul-2002	70.83	66.03	64.65	66.73	62.20	60.90	23
Aug-2002	103.88	103.85	103.99	102.30	102.28	102.41	22
Sep-2002	102.09	101.37	101.56	105.33	104.59	104.78	21
Oct-2002	116.81	118.23	118.34	110.04	111.37	111.48	23
Nov-2002	89.81	89.33	89.61	92.66	92.16	92.46	21
Dec-2002	76.88	78.62	78.71	75.71	77.43	77.52	22
Jan-2003	100.34	97.05	97.08	94.52	91.42	91.45	23
Feb-2003	99.41	100.30	100.56	107.69	108.65	108.94	20
Mar-2003	106.94	108.53	108.83	110.34	111.98	112.28	21
Apr-2003	103.59	104.29	104.16	102.02	102.71	102.59	22
May-2003	107.03	109.49	109.60	105.41	107.83	107.94	22
Jun-2003	102.41	102.63	102.53	105.66	105.89	105.78	21
Jul-2003	74.38	68.12	66.78	70.07	64.17	62.91	23
Aug-2003	103.18	101.73	101.95	106.46	104.96	105.18	21
Sep-2003	103.75	105.42	105.52	102.18	103.82	103.92	22
Oct-2003	116.97	117.58	117.71	110.19	110.76	110.89	23
Nov-2003	91.33	91.11	91.39	98.94	98.70	99.00	20
Dec-2003	87.14	89.46	89.48	82.09	84.27	84.29	23
Jan-2004	92.46	88.76	88.70	91.06	87.42	87.36	22
Feb-2004	99.53	100.08	100.30	107.83	108.43	108.66	20
Mar-2004	116.86	118.50	118.79	110.09	111.63	111.90	23
Apr-2004	104.12	105.34	105.25	102.54	103.74	103.65	22
May-2004	98.92	102.09	102.24	102.06	105.33	105.49	21
Jun-2004	110.41	111.76	111.75	108.74	110.07	110.05	22
Jul-2004	70.08	64.81	63.50	69.02	63.83	62.54	22
Aug-2004	107.21	104.97	105.14	105.59	103.38	103.55	22
Sep-2004	107.61	108.70	109.01	105.98	107.05	107.36	22
Oct-2004	107.23	106.63	106.69	110.63	110.01	110.07	21
Nov-2004	98.40	98.27	98.62	96.91	96.78	97.12	22
Dec-2004	87.32	89.62	89.55	82.26	84.42	84.36	23
Jan-2005	97.50	93.22	93.05	100.60	96.18	96.01	21
Feb-2005	99.81	99.87	100.03	108.12	108.19	108.37	20
Mar-2005	107.87	109.40	109.63	101.62	103.06	103.28	23
Apr-2005	106.37	108.12	108.07	109.75	111.55	111.50	21
May-2005	102.71	106.88	107.10	101.16	105.26	105.48	22
Jun-2005	109.48	112.39	112.51	107.82	110.69	110.80	22
Jul-2005	65.91	61.47	60.20	68.00	63.42	62.11	21
Aug-2005	115.22	112.15	112.53	108.54	105.65	106.01	23
Sep-2005	107.27	107.48	107.75	105.64	105.85	106.12	22
Oct-2005	108.10	106.42	106.42	111.53	109.80	109.79	21
Nov-2005	94.95	94.64	94.99	93.51	93.21	93.55	22
Dec-2005	87.32	89.45	89.28	86.00	88.09	87.93	22
Jan-2006	97.51	93.28	93.00	96.04	91.87	91.60	22
Feb-2006	99.81	99.67	99.76	108.13	107.98	108.08	20
Mar-2006	115.93	117.77	118.00	109.21	110.94	111.16	23
Apr-2006	91.70	93.38	93.38	99.34	101.16	101.16	20
May-2006	108.36	113.52	113.86	102.08	106.94	107.26	23
Jun-2006	108.48	112.83	113.06	106.83	111.12	111.34	22
Jul-2006	67.94	61.75	60.54	70.10	63.71	62.46	21
Aug-2006	115.15	113.73	114.27	108.47	107.14	107.65	23
Sep-2006	102.70	102.50	102.72	105.96	105.75	105.98	21
Oct-2006	114.29	111.54	111.46	112.56	109.85	109.77	22
Nov-2006	98.80	98.11	98.46	97.30	96.63	96.97	22
Dec-2006	82.15	83.88	83.63	84.76	86.55	86.29	21
Jan-2007	102.16	98.05	97.64	96.24	92.37	91.98	23
Feb-2007	99.82	99.56	99.60	108.13	107.86	107.90	20
Mar-2007	110.40	112.37	112.58	108.73	110.67	110.87	22
Apr-2007	95.68	97.57	97.60	98.72	100.67	100.70	21
May-2007	107.65	113.48	113.90	101.41	106.90	107.29	23
Jun-2007	102.65	108.19	108.55	105.90	111.62	112.00	21
Jul-2007	74.70	67.53	66.39	73.56	66.51	65.39	22
Aug-2007	113.59	112.52	113.04	107.01	106.00	106.49	23
Sep-2007	98.23	97.37	97.60	106.42	105.49	105.73	20
Oct-2007	120.57	117.10	116.99	113.58	110.31	110.21	23
Nov-2007	103.07	101.89	102.20	101.50	100.35	100.66	22
Dec-2007	76.99	78.42	78.09	79.43	80.91	80.57	21
Jan-2008	102.39	98.38	97.84	96.46	92.67	92.17	23
Feb-2008	104.53	104.29	104.26	107.85	107.60	107.57	21
Mar-2008	96.92	98.72	98.89	99.99	101.86	102.03	21
Apr-2008	108.00	110.44	110.50	106.36	108.77	108.83	22
May-2008	100.85	106.87	107.34	99.32	105.25	105.72	22
Jun-2008	102.03	108.66	109.14	105.27	112.11	112.60	21
Jul-2008	76.45	71.13	69.99	72.02	67.00	65.93	23
Aug-2008	105.66	101.61	102.08	109.02	104.83	105.32	21
Sep-2008	109.32	108.57	108.90	107.66	106.92	107.25	22
Oct-2008	121.53	117.16	117.01	114.49	110.37	110.23	23
Nov-2008	89.20	88.05	88.31	96.63	95.39	95.67	20
Dec-2008	87.35	88.81	88.33	82.29	83.66	83.21	23
Jan-2009	92.74	89.29	88.75	91.34	87.94	87.40	22
Feb-2009	99.20	98.85	98.76	107.47	107.09	106.99	20
Mar-2009	109.75	111.89	112.04	108.09	110.20	110.35	22
Apr-2009	100.18	102.73	102.84	98.66	101.18	101.28	22
May-2009	95.57	101.72	102.25	98.60	104.95	105.50	21
Jun-2009	106.30	114.28	114.90	104.69	112.55	113.15	22
Jul-2009	79.25	77.34	76.63	74.66	72.85	72.18	23
Aug-2009	104.76	99.35	99.65	108.08	102.50	102.82	21
Sep-2009	108.86	105.58	105.75	107.21	103.98	104.15	22
Oct-2009	117.12	111.81	111.62	115.34	110.12	109.93	22
Nov-2009	98.13	96.82	97.09	101.25	99.89	100.17	21
Dec-2009	87.51	88.84	88.26	82.44	83.69	83.14	23
Jan-2010	92.65	89.52	88.97	95.60	92.37	91.79	21
Feb-2010	98.78	98.37	98.23	107.01	106.56	106.41	20
Mar-2010	114.33	116.71	116.84	107.70	109.95	110.07	23
Apr-2010	101.35	104.29	104.45	99.82	102.71	102.87	22
May-2010	96.67	103.22	103.84	99.74	106.50	107.14	21
Jun-2010	105.83	114.50	115.17	104.22	112.77	113.42	22
Jul-2010	76.79	70.41	69.56	75.63	69.35	68.50	22
Aug-2010	109.39	107.32	107.86	107.73	105.69	106.22	22
Sep-2010	110.05	105.89	106.02	108.38	104.29	104.41	22
Oct-2010	112.52	106.55	106.34	116.10	109.94	109.71	21
Nov-2010	100.36	98.89	99.16	98.84	97.39	97.66	22
Dec-2010	86.70	88.44	87.87	81.67	83.31	82.78	23
Jan-2011	96.07	93.79	93.39	99.12	96.77	96.35	21
Feb-2011	99.93	99.09	98.89	108.26	107.34	107.13	20
Mar-2011	116.91	118.55	118.45	110.13	111.68	111.59	23
Apr-2011	96.51	98.99	98.73	99.57	102.13	101.86	21
May-2011	101.15	108.42	109.08	99.62	106.78	107.42	22
Jun-2011	103.91	110.49	110.67	102.34	108.81	109.00	22
Jul-2011	72.53	72.50	72.09	74.83	74.80	74.38	21
Aug-2011	116.60	110.56	110.89	109.84	104.15	104.46	23
Sep-2011	108.86	105.73	105.81	107.21	104.12	104.21	22
Oct-2011	115.97	107.66	107.58	119.65	111.07	110.99	21
Nov-2011	104.75	102.33	102.73	103.17	100.78	101.17	22
Dec-2011	86.34	88.39	87.87	85.03	87.06	86.54	22
Jan-2012	94.87	94.71	94.46	93.43	93.28	93.03	22
Feb-2012	104.34	104.53	104.52	107.65	107.85	107.84	21
Mar-2012	111.14	114.85	115.05	109.46	113.11	113.31	22
Apr-2012	95.48	97.67	97.69	98.51	100.78	100.80	21
May-2012	105.15	110.09	110.35	99.06	103.70	103.95	23
Jun-2012	98.66	104.81	104.92	101.79	108.14	108.25	21
Jul-2012	73.69	74.64	74.11	72.57	73.51	72.98	22
Aug-2012	118.31	109.99	110.27	111.45	103.61	103.88	23
Sep-2012	99.93	98.42	98.67	108.26	106.62	106.89	20

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