Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

The Federal Reserve Board has re-estimated seasonal factors for new motor vehicle sales, using data through April 2024; in the estimation, data for September through November 2023 as well as for January 2024 are identified as outliers because of the United Auto Workers strike and winter storms. These factors are estimated once per year using X13-ARIMA. The factors will be revised again in the summer of 2025.

The Federal Reserve Board provides seasonal factors for sales of cars and light trucks to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. The BEA has posted on their website seasonal factors for motor vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through August 2025. These factors are available for download here. A Technical Q&A with details on the calculation of the seasonal factors for light vehicles is available here.

The table below shows the Federal Reserve seasonal factors for monthly motor vehicle sales. For cars and light trucks, these are essentially the same seasonal factors that are available from the BEA extended through December 2026. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors posted by the BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments to align annual totals of the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here (CSV).

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

	Domestic Autos	Foreign Autos	Domestic Light Trucks	Foreign Light Trucks	Domestic Heavy Trucks	Foreign Heavy Trucks
Jan-2019	83.81	78.04	82.97	84.48	88.49	68.82
Feb-2019	94.11	85.81	91.60	90.97	87.09	77.73
Mar-2019	117.20	112.67	108.12	112.33	101.74	97.33
Apr-2019	99.67	101.05	97.41	92.94	100.04	96.31
May-2019	113.95	112.67	108.00	107.55	102.04	112.85
Jun-2019	108.72	108.50	104.19	103.70	100.94	110.49
Jul-2019	97.18	103.67	98.08	98.57	101.39	97.23
Aug-2019	111.29	114.51	113.78	116.76	102.85	109.12
Sep-2019	88.22	90.55	88.80	89.72	100.85	94.12
Oct-2019	96.13	93.74	98.48	95.69	107.20	101.44
Nov-2019	95.32	99.22	99.36	101.28	91.94	87.86
Dec-2019	96.87	100.91	111.25	107.32	115.00	141.44
Jan-2020	83.25	79.32	82.92	85.13	88.17	73.26
Feb-2020	100.21	90.61	97.62	97.85	88.86	79.13
Mar-2020	109.57	105.22	102.16	104.03	104.46	97.33
Apr-2020	103.04	102.23	100.57	96.07	100.62	100.36
May-2020	115.06	115.75	108.23	110.67	96.02	102.39
Jun-2020	104.12	104.86	100.67	98.57	106.51	115.16
Jul-2020	99.30	105.95	100.05	100.30	100.32	100.19
Aug-2020	100.04	107.95	100.57	109.09	100.77	104.05
Sep-2020	97.84	96.49	100.49	95.72	104.32	97.06
Oct-2020	100.61	98.13	101.69	100.65	103.85	99.93
Nov-2020	87.97	90.97	91.30	91.91	92.11	86.87
Dec-2020	105.44	109.22	120.81	117.49	119.42	148.39
Jan-2021	82.36	77.16	81.61	83.95	83.04	70.01
Feb-2021	93.02	85.38	91.72	91.07	86.98	79.23
Mar-2021	111.78	106.88	105.17	106.63	108.21	101.73
Apr-2021	102.43	103.15	100.17	96.19	99.25	97.89
May-2021	115.52	115.31	108.86	110.85	96.95	102.16
Jun-2021	104.43	105.01	100.53	99.14	106.49	115.41
Jul-2021	103.53	110.23	103.22	104.52	97.40	96.47
Aug-2021	95.20	104.45	96.76	103.20	102.74	105.79
Sep-2021	98.39	95.72	100.64	95.97	104.90	98.51
Oct-2021	98.43	96.99	99.02	98.67	101.06	96.66
Nov-2021	90.61	92.58	94.00	93.30	94.65	89.04
Dec-2021	102.69	106.28	116.97	114.63	119.16	148.20
Jan-2022	82.87	77.29	82.12	84.53	84.03	73.21
Feb-2022	92.50	85.28	91.78	91.21	86.69	80.39
Mar-2022	114.78	107.84	108.44	109.11	107.49	101.61
Apr-2022	106.78	107.93	103.73	101.76	97.03	93.02
May-2022	107.42	109.20	102.20	103.20	99.00	103.80
Jun-2022	107.84	106.54	103.44	101.20	106.63	116.35
Jul-2022	100.26	109.16	99.98	101.84	94.57	93.22
Aug-2022	97.23	106.89	99.11	105.68	106.66	112.04
Sep-2022	97.58	96.48	100.10	95.46	103.32	96.91
Oct-2022	97.41	94.36	97.08	96.96	102.39	97.21
Nov-2022	93.28	94.10	96.71	95.33	94.90	90.70
Dec-2022	102.40	105.68	116.52	113.43	115.75	137.36
Jan-2023	83.36	77.37	82.61	85.06	85.85	77.66
Feb-2023	92.15	85.39	91.97	91.19	86.54	82.13
Mar-2023	113.47	108.36	107.64	109.24	107.10	103.34
Apr-2023	105.29	105.13	101.76	100.19	94.60	87.78
May-2023	109.85	111.55	104.98	106.00	103.09	109.81
Jun-2023	107.08	107.52	102.71	100.73	105.15	112.46
Jul-2023	98.47	106.30	97.70	99.49	95.52	93.85
Aug-2023	99.86	108.49	101.74	107.80	106.15	112.97
Sep-2023	101.43	100.89	103.43	100.27	100.75	93.22
Oct-2023	93.63	91.04	94.21	92.24	104.47	99.93
Nov-2023	94.15	93.01	96.68	95.10	95.34	93.28
Dec-2023	99.15	103.83	112.64	110.53	112.21	128.69
Jan-2024	85.86	79.00	85.44	87.91	89.41	84.42
Feb-2024	94.56	86.55	94.97	93.14	90.08	87.34
Mar-2024	114.62	110.91	107.92	111.81	100.81	93.68
Apr-2024	101.20	101.66	98.68	95.58	99.85	91.56
May-2024	112.12	113.84	107.32	108.58	102.54	113.06
Jun-2024	109.47	109.20	103.75	103.77	100.43	102.32
Jul-2024	96.61	104.79	97.17	96.74	101.10	101.25
Aug-2024	108.67	115.98	111.38	115.03	102.76	109.78
Sep-2024	88.28	90.85	88.83	89.51	100.49	92.73
Oct-2024	99.31	93.94	100.20	97.03	108.06	107.21
Nov-2024	97.45	97.93	99.27	99.07	92.21	88.32
Dec-2024	96.03	98.06	109.27	105.09	115.79	129.31
Jan-2025	85.42	79.67	85.27	88.06	88.78	88.07
Feb-2025	91.34	85.44	92.23	91.06	86.27	83.22
Mar-2025	112.33	107.80	105.44	109.39	101.56	92.90
Apr-2025	104.23	103.98	101.86	98.65	100.04	93.07
May-2025	117.07	118.23	110.91	113.86	99.61	107.64
Jun-2025	102.21	103.17	97.42	96.51	103.27	104.53
Jul-2025	99.55	106.03	100.21	98.65	100.80	102.25
Aug-2025	105.15	114.68	107.83	112.25	99.96	104.46
Sep-2025	90.33	92.91	91.23	91.32	103.32	94.71
Oct-2025	98.81	94.47	99.76	97.54	107.42	110.58
Nov-2025	96.14	95.26	97.20	96.65	89.93	85.28
Dec-2025	97.70	100.52	111.47	106.96	120.40	136.79
Jan-2026	86.05	78.93	85.36	88.67	86.12	84.28
Feb-2026	91.08	85.38	92.20	90.98	86.23	82.58
Mar-2026	112.27	108.11	106.29	108.80	103.06	93.53
Apr-2026	104.94	103.29	102.01	99.25	100.47	96.06
May-2026	111.01	114.54	105.39	108.83	96.67	102.18
Jun-2026	107.30	107.41	102.44	100.86	106.46	106.81
Jul-2026	98.76	106.80	99.62	98.65	100.59	104.36
Aug-2026	98.05	109.21	98.59	107.64	101.23	103.88
Sep-2026	97.41	96.76	100.14	95.48	103.84	95.79
Oct-2026	98.69	94.34	99.04	97.58	103.90	106.12
Nov-2026	94.19	93.47	95.30	94.23	92.05	88.60
Dec-2026	95.99	97.64	108.83	104.62	119.88	138.10

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