Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)
March 2015
A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area
Antonello D'Agostino, Michele Modugno, and Chiara Osbat
Abstract:
We propose a model for analyzing euro area trade based on the interaction between macroeconomic and trade variables. First, we show that macroeconomic variables are necessary to generate accurate short-term trade forecasts; this result can be explained by the high correlation between trade and macroeconomic variables, with the latter being released in a more timely manner. Second, the model tracks well the dynamics of trade variables conditional on the path of macroeconomic variables during the great recession; this result makes our model a reliable tool for scenario analysis. Third, we quantify the contribution of the most important euro area trading partners (regions) to the aggregate extra euro area developments: we evaluate the impact of an increase of the external demand from a specific region on the extra euro area trade.
Keywords: euro area trade, factor models, nowcast, conditional forecast, scenario analysis
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.013
PDF: Full Paper