Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Abstract:

Rising interest rates in 2022 introduced large moving costs for homeowners with low, fixed-rate mortgages. Using a novel dataset linking mortgage loans, consumer credit profiles, and property sales, we examine the effects of rate hikes on household mobility and the broader economic impacts of the resulting mortgage rate lock-in. As market rates rise relative to those on borrowers' existing loans, likelihood of moving falls with the highest elasticity among borrowers just "in the money." Our results suggest about 44% of the decline in moves among mortgage holders between 2021 and 2022 may be attributable to the widening gap between borrower's existing and market rates. We find limited scope for labor misallocation due to lock-in, as moves across labor market areas are rather unaffected. Instead, lock-in primarily reduces within-metro churn and moves up the housing ladder, leading to fewer real estate listings and greater house price growth. We explain lock-in-driven price increases through a housing search model: in a seller's market, reduced churn raises market tightness, driving up prices. Consistent with such a model, we show measures of market tightness increase in response to lock-in, with the most significant effects in markets that were already tight.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.088

Abstract:

We identify and study two mechanisms that can overturn the stabilizing effects of unemployment insurance (UI) policies. First, households in economies with more generous UI reduce their precautionary savings and increase their mortgage debt. Second, the share of mortgages, especially those with higher loan-to-income ratios, increases on bank balance sheets. As a result, both bank and household balance sheets become more vulnerable to adverse shocks, which deepens recessions. We demonstrate the importance of these channels by employing a quantitative heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium model and by providing county-level empirical evidence from the U.S. housing and mortgage markets.

Keywords: Automatic stabilizers, Unemployment insurance, Household and bank balance sheets, Housing market, Mortgage debt, Foreclosures

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.087

Abstract:

We study estimation of large Dynamic Factor models implemented through the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, jointly with the Kalman smoother. We prove that as both the cross-sectional dimension, n, and the sample size, T, diverge to infinity: (i) the estimated loadings are √T-consistent, asymptotically normal and equivalent to their Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimates; (ii) the estimated factors are √n-consistent, asymptotically normal and equivalent to their Weighted Least Squares estimates. Moreover, the estimated loadings are asymptotically as efficient as those obtained by Principal Components analysis, while the estimated factors are more efficient if the idiosyncratic covariance is sparse enough.

Keywords: Approximate Dynamic Factor Model; Expectation Maximization Algorithm; Kalman Smoother; Quasi Maximum Likelihood.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.086

Abstract:

Community banks are critical for local economies, yet research on their corporate governance has been scarce due to limited data availability. We explore a unique, proprietary dataset of board membership and meeting minutes of failed community banks to present several stylized facts regarding their board structure and meetings. Community bank boards have fewer members and a higher percentage of insiders than larger publicly traded banks, and experience little turnover during normal times. Their meetings are held monthly and span about two hours. During times of distress, community bank boards convene less often in regularly scheduled meetings in lieu of impromptu meetings, experience higher turnover, particularly among their independent directors, and their meeting tone switches from neutral to significantly negative. Board attention during distressed times shifts towards discussion of capital and examination oversight, and away from lending activities and meeting formalities.

Keywords: corporate governance, board of directors, banking, machine learning, natural language processing

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.085

Abstract:

We develop a model of the individual term structure of inflation expectations across forecasting horizons. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we decompose disagreement about inflation expectations into individuals’ long-term beliefs, private information, and public information. We find that in normal times, long-horizon disagreement is predominantly driven by individuals’ long-term beliefs, while short-horizon disagreement stems from private information. During economic downturns, heterogeneous reactions to public information become a key driver of disagreement at all horizons. When forecasters disagree about public information, monetary policy exhibits a delayed response and a price puzzle emerges, underscoring the importance of anchoring inflation expectations.

Keywords: Inflation Expectations, Term Structure, Disagreement, Monetary Policy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.084

Abstract:

We study the importance of information technology (IT) in banking for entrepreneurship. Guided by a parsimonious model, we establish that job creation by young firms is stronger in US counties more exposed to banks with greater IT adoption. We present evidence consistent with banks' IT adoption spurring entrepreneurship through a collateral channel: entrepreneurship increases by more in IT-exposed counties when house prices rise. Further analysis suggests that IT improves banks' ability to determine collateral values, in particular when collateral appraisal is more complex. IT also reduces the time and cost of disbursing collateralized loans.

Keywords: Collateral, Entrepreneurship, Information Technology, Screening, Technology in Banking

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.083

Abstract:

We study how the mortgage interest deduction (MID) affects refinancing. Households who deduct mortgage interest from their taxes face a lower post-tax mortgage rate, reducing the interest savings from refinancing net of taxes. We estimate the effect of the MID on refinancing using the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 as a natural experiment. The TCJA doubled the standard deduction, reducing MID uptake and value. We show that, following the TCJA, the refinancing rate amongst households who lose the MID increased by 25%. Our results suggest that reducing the MID may improve the pass-through of monetary policy when rates fall.

Keywords: Consumption, Household Finance, Monetary policy, Mortgages

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.082

Abstract:

This paper investigates the impact of loan-to-value (LtV) borrowing constraints in models with occasionally binding credit constraints. These constraints give rise to a Fisherian debt-deflation mechanism, where exogenous shocks can trigger cascading effects resulting in significant declines in consumption, asset prices, and borrowing reversals—characteristic of financial crises. However, recent literature challenges traditional view by suggesting that collateral constraints may not always exacerbate financial disturbances but could instead foster dynamics leading to multiple equilibria. Building on this discussion, the paper explores equilibrium asset pricing models with LtV collateral constraints, identifying critical thresholds that govern asset price dynamics, consumption patterns, and current account behaviors. Our analysis uncovers that when the LtV limit is close to zero, tighter constraints induce smaller drops in consumption during crises. Conversely, when the LtV limit is close to one, we observe that tighter constraints induce larger drops in consumption during crises. The nonlinear relationship between the LtV ratio and adverse effects on macroeconomic outcomes aligns with cross-country evidence regarding the relationship between the level of financial development and the severity of consumption declines during crises.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.081

Abstract:

Using 150,000 actual trades, we study the U.S. equity retail broker-wholesaler market, focusing on brokers’ order routing and competition among wholesalers. We document substantial and persistent dispersion in execution costs across wholesalers within brokers. Despite this, many brokers hardly change their routing and even consistently send more orders to the more expensive wholesalers, although there is considerable variation among brokers. We also document a case where, after a new wholesaler enters, existing wholesalers significantly reduce their execution costs. Overall, our findings and theoretical framework highlight the heterogeneity across brokers and are inconsistent with perfect competition in this market.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.080

Abstract:

We estimate the impact of anticipated transfers on labor supply using confidential driver-level data from Uber. Leveraging the staggered timing of Social Security retirement benefits within each month and a novel identification strategy, we find that the labor supply of older drivers declines by 2%, on average, during the week of benefit receipt—a precisely estimated but economically small effect. Individual-level analyses reveal that the average effect obscures heterogeneous micro-behavior: while the majority of drivers do not meaningfully adjust labor supply in response to social security benefits, a small group reduces labor supply by more than 40%. The results suggest that departures from standard models of labor supply can be substantial, but only for a small number of individuals.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.079

Abstract:

We develop a tractable sticky price model in which the fraction of price changes evolves endogenously over time and, consistent with the evidence, increases with inflation. Because we assume that firms sell multiple products and choose how many, but not which, prices to adjust in any given period, our model admits exact aggregation and reduces to a one-equation extension of the Calvo model. This additional equation determines the fraction of price changes. The model features a powerful inflation accelerator – a feedback loop between inflation and the fraction of price changes – which significantly increases the slope of the Phillips curve during periods of high inflation. Applied to the U.S. time series, our model predicts that the slope of the Phillips curve ranges from 0.02 in the 1990s to 0.12 in the 1970s and 1980s.

Keywords: Phillips curve, inflation, price rigidities

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.078

Abstract:

How does the design of debt repayment schedules affect household borrowing? To answer this question, we exploit a Swedish policy reform that eliminated interest-only mortgages for loan-to-value ratios above 50%. We document substantial bunching at the threshold, leading to 5% lower borrowing. Wealthy borrowers drive the results, challenging credit constraints as the primary explanation. We develop a model to evaluate the mechanisms driving household behavior and find that much of the effect comes from households experiencing ongoing flow disutility to amortization payments. Our results indicate that mortgage contracts with low initial payments substantially increase household borrowing and lifetime interest costs.

Keywords: Mortgage design; Amortization payments; Macroprudential policy; Bunching

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.077

Abstract:

We show that standard menu cost models cannot simultaneously reproduce the dispersion in the size of micro-price changes and the extent to which the fraction of price changes increases with inflation in the U.S. time-series. Though the Golosov and Lucas (2007) model generates fluctuations in the fraction of price changes, it predicts too little dispersion in the size of price changes and therefore little monetary non-neutrality. In contrast, versions of the model that reproduce the dispersion in the size of price changes and generate stronger monetary non-neutrality predict a nearly constant fraction of price changes.

Keywords: menu costs, inflation, fraction of price changes

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.076

Abstract:

Machine learning and artificial intelligence are often described as "black boxes." Traditional linear regression is interpreted through its marginal relationships as captured by regression coefficients. We show that the same marginal relationship can be described rigorously for any machine learning model by calculating the slope of the partial dependence functions, which we call the partial marginal effect (PME). We prove that the PME of OLS is analytically equivalent to the OLS regression coefficient. Bootstrapping provides standard errors and confidence intervals around the point estimates of the PMEs. We apply the PME to a hedonic house pricing example and demonstrate that the PMEs of neural networks, support vector machines, random forests, and gradient boosting models reveal the non-linear relationships discovered by the machine learning models and allow direct comparison between those models and a traditional linear regression. Finally we extend PME to a Shapley value decomposition and explore how it can be used to further explain model outputs.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.075

Abstract:

Using administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we introduce a new public-use database that tracks activities across firm growth distributions over time. With these new data, we uncover several key trends for high-growth firms—critical engines of innovation and economic growth. First, the share of firms that are high-growth has steadily decreased over the past four decades, driven not only by falling rates of entrepreneurship but also languishing growth among existing firms. Second, this decline is particularly pronounced among young and small firms, while the share of high-growth firms has been relatively stable among large and old firms. We also find rich variation across states and sectors. To facilitate future research, we highlight how these data can be used to address various research questions.

Keywords: Organizational Growth, Entrepreneurship, High-Growth Firms, Business Dynamism, Publicly Available Dataset

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.074

Abstract:

Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing in the labor market should take into account the current state of the labor market and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment. We use a simple model of the Beveridge curve to investigate what conditions are necessary for a soft landing in the labor market to occur and what the likelihood of these conditions was during the height of the pandemic-period inflation. We find that a soft landing was a plausible outcome at that time. Since then, the evolution of the labor market has borne out that prediction.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.073

Abstract:

Rising interest rates and structural shifts in the demand for space have strained CRE markets and prompted concern about contagion to the largest CRE debt holder: banks. We use confidential loan-level data on bank CRE portfolios to examine banks’ exposure to at-risk CRE loans. We investigate (1) what loan characteristics are associated with delinquency and (2) to what extent the portfolio composition of major CRE lenders determines their exposure to losses. Higher LTVs, larger property sizes, and greater local remote work tendencies are all associated with increased delinquency risk, particularly for office loans. We use several machine learning algorithms to demonstrate that variation in exposure to these risk factors can account for most of the performance disparity across different types of CRE lenders. The headline result is that small banks’ comparatively modest delinquency rates mostly reflect observable portfolio characteristics—predominantly their low holdings of large-sized office loans—rather than unobserved factors like extension or modification tendencies.

Keywords: commercial real estate, banks, CMBS

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.072

Abstract:

Since 2010, the total number of commercial bank branches in the United States has fallen by about 20%. Do branch closures meaningfully affect economic activity? We investigate the impact of branch closures on small businesses, whose credit access may be facilitated through local relationships with bankers. We use exogenous variation in branch closures related to mergers and acquisitions to show that closures of nearby branches decrease small business employment growth and entry. Our results are robust to variations in our measure of employment, proximity, and construction of the instrument. Altogether, our analysis highlights the importance of local bank branches to small businesses.

Keywords: Credit access; small businesses; firm growth; branch closures; bank mergers; Longitudinal Business Database.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.071

Abstract:

A convex combination of renting and traditional homeownership—Partial Ownership (PO)—is increasingly popular in many countries. We incorporate an existing for-profit PO contract into a life-cycle model to quantify its impact on investment in housing, households’ welfare, and financial stability. We have the following results: 1) PO makes more households invest in (some) housing. 2) Willingness to pay for PO increases with housing unaffordability and is highest among low-income and renting households. 3) PO may reduce systemic risk despite raising aggregate debt because the most indebted traditional homeowners become partial owners.

Keywords: Partial Homeownership, Housing Affordability, Financial Innovation, Financial Stability

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.070

Abstract:

Despite the widespread use of fixed-rate mortgages in the United States, I show that monetary policy is effectively passed through to aggregate outstanding mortgage debt service. Using credit bureau, lender, and servicer data on mortgage payments and originations and exogenous monetary policy shocks, I estimate a mortgage rate semi-elasticity of payments over 10. Inframarginal borrowers—households whose choice to buy a home or refinance does not depend on the particular monetary policy decision under consideration—are the most important conduit, explaining over half of the pass-through. Consistently large flows of inframarginal borrowing relative to the stock of outstanding debt account for the strength of this channel. Households with adjustable-rate mortgages and marginal refinancers, the focus of much of the literature on monetary policy's effect on mortgage borrowers, each explain about 20 percent of the pass-through. I show the mortgage payment channel induces a lag in the operation of policy, as the cumulative effects on debt service build over time in response to persistent shocks to longer-term rates. Estimated magnitudes suggest that mortgage payments are a primary channel by which monetary policy affects consumption.

Keywords: Monetary policy, Interest rates, Refinancing channel, Debt service

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.069

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic caused severe disruptions to the U.S. labor market and economic activity. We establish connections between family experiences of the pandemic, their income under normal conditions, and their later economic well-being using the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances. By their interview, one-third of families experienced net employment declines, one-third had teleworked, and one-fifth had significant COVID-19-related health events. These experiences strongly reflected families’ positions in the income distribution, with lower-income families bearing the brunt. They also tightly predict income and wealth after the initial disruptions, signifying that the pandemic economy likely amplified pre-pandemic differences and fostered new divides.

Keywords: COVID-19, Survey of Consumer Finances, Family economic well-being

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.068

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduce a model to study the interaction between insurance and banking. We build on the Federal Crop Insurance Act of 1980, which significantly expanded and restructured the decades-old federal crop insurance program and adverse weather shocks – over-exposure of crops to heat and acute weather events – to investigate some insights from our model. Banks increased lending to the agricultural sector in counties with higher insurance coverage after 1980, even when affected by adverse weather shocks. Further, while they increased risky lending, they were sufficiently compensated by insurance such that their overall risk did not increase meaningfully. We discuss the implications of our results in the light of potential changes to insurance availability as a consequence of global warming.

Keywords: Climate risks, Insurance, Bank lending, Financial stability

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.067

Abstract:

Does interconnectedness improve market quality? Yes. We develop an alternative network structure, the assets network: assets are connected if they are held by the same investors. We use several large datasets to build the assets network for the corporate bond market. Through careful identification strategies based on the COVID-19 shock and “fallen angels,” we find that interconnectedness improves market quality especially during stress periods. Our findings contribute to the debate on the role of interconnectedness in financial markets and show that highly interconnected corporate bonds allow for risk sharing and require a lower compensation for risk.

Keywords: Financial stability, Interconnectedness, Institutional investors, Big data

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.066

Abstract:

Financing cost differentials tilt the calculus for households toward electric vehicles (EVs). Using 85 million observations on U.S. auto loans, we study households’ credit risk by engine type, seek to uncover the sources and ask if credit risk differentials are being priced. We find that EV borrowers default 29% less relative to internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) borrowers with a back-of-the-envelope value of $1,457 in lender savings. To disentangle selection from ex post exposure to differential costs of running an EV, we implement a differential shock exposure by treatment model of Borusyak and Hull (2023). We find that a prolonged higher gasoline price regime could result in ICEV borrowers defaulting up to a 83% increase. Do lenders pass along these savings to borrowers? EV borrowers pay 2.2 percentage point lower interest rate, the equivalent of $2,711 in foregone payments. This lower rate is only for captive (manufacturer-based) lenders, not for bank and nonbank lenders, suggestive of policy and strategic motives by manufacturers, not a passing along of credit risk value. Another $1,457 is probably not being priced to households. Finally, we find that the ABS market knows, at least partially, allowing for less in loan loss reserves buffering the ABS, reflecting $233 in savings for the ABS issuer.

Keywords: Auto loans, Climate finance, Electric vehicles

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.065

Abstract:

This paper discusses the findings from the 2020 Survey of Finance Companies.

Keywords: Consumer finance, Nonbank lenders, Survey

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.064

Abstract:

Under finite horizon planning, households and firms evaluate a full set of state-contingent paths along which the economy might evolve out to a finite horizon but have limited ability to process events beyond that horizon. We show–analytically and empirically–that such a model accounts for an initial underreaction and subsequent overreaction of inflation forecasts. A planning horizon of four quarters can account for the evidence on the predictability of inflation forecast errors and macroeconomic data. Our identification and estimation strategies combine full-information methods based on aggregate data with regression-based estimates that directly use inflation expectations data.

Keywords: Finite horizon planning, inflation expectations, bayesian estimation

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.063

Abstract:

We study the consequences of shocks to the household wealth distribution in dynamic general equilibrium by characterizing the rate at which excess wealth is depleted. Analytical results link the aggregate decumulation rate to the distribution of the additional balances, micro intertemporal marginal propensities to consume, and general equilibrium feedback. A quantitative heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model matches the depletion path of the excess savings built up during the COVID-19 pandemic across the income distribution. The model predicts a substantial but steadily waning boost to consumption and explains up to 40 percent of the surge in inflation observed in 2020 and 2021.

Keywords: Excess savings, heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) models, incomplete markets, household portfolios, inflation dynamics, COVID-19 pandemic

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.062

Abstract:

Studies of intermediated arbitrage argue that bank balance sheets are an important consideration, yet little evidence exists on banks’ positioning in this context. Using confidential supervisory data (covering $25 trillion in daily notional exposures) we examine banks’ positions in connection with covered-interest parity (CIP) deviations. Exploiting cross-sectional variation in CIP deviations that have largely challenged existing theories, we document three novel forces that drive bases: 1) foreign safe asset scarcity, 2) market power and segmentation of banks specializing in different markets, and 3) concentration of demand. Our findings shed empirical light on the interplay of frictions influencing banks’ provision of dollar funding.

Keywords: basis, covered-interest parity deviation, foreign exchange, safe assets

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.061

Abstract:

In the spectral backtesting framework of Gordy and McNeil (2020) a probability measure on the unit interval is used to weight the quantiles of greatest interest in the validation of forecast models using probability-integral transform (PIT) data. We extend this framework to allow general Lebesgue-Stieltjes kernel measures with unbounded distribution functions, which brings powerful new tests based on truncated location-scale families into the spectral class. Moreover, by considering uniform distribution preserving transformations of PIT values the test framework is generalized to allow tests that are focused on both tails of the forecast distribution.

Keywords: Backtesting; Volatility; Risk management

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.060

Abstract:

Central banks operate in a world in which there is substantial uncertainty regarding the transmission of its actions to the economy because of uncertainty regarding the formation of private-sector expectations. We model private sector expectations using a finite horizon planning framework: Households and firms have limited foresight when deciding spending, saving, and pricing decisions. In this setting, contrary to standard New Keynesian (NK) models, we show that "an inflation scares problem" for the central bank can arise where agents' longer-run inflation expectations deviate persistently from a central bank's inflation target. We formally characterize optimal time-consistent monetary policy when there is uncertainty about the planning horizons of private sector agents and a risk of inflation scares. We show how risk management considerations modify the optimal leaning-against-the-wind principle in the NK literature with a novel, additional preemptive motive to avert inflation scares. We quantify the importance of such risk management considerations during the recent post-pandemic inflation surge.

Keywords: Finite horizon planning, optimal time-consistent policy under uncertainty, leaning against the wind, attenuation principle.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.059

Abstract:

We develop a theory that connects insurance prices, insurance companies’ investment behavior, and equilibrium asset prices. Consistent with the model’s predictions, we show empirically that (1) insurers with more stable insurance funding take more investment risk and, therefore, earn higher average investment returns; (2) insurers set lower prices on policies when expected investment returns are higher, both in the cross-section of insurance companies and in the time series. Our results hold for both life insurance and property and casualty insurance companies. The findings show that insurers’ asset allocation and product pricing decisions are more connected than previously thought.

Keywords: Insurance pricing, Corporate bonds, Portfolio choice

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.058

Abstract:

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive investigation of the potential for expanded central clearing to reduce the costs of the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) on Treasury market intermediation in both cash and repo markets. Combining a detailed analysis of the rules involved in calculating the SLR with a unique set of regulatory data, we conclude that expanding central clearing would have relatively limited effects on the level of SLRs. We do find intermediaries’ increase their balance sheet netting when their regulatory balance sheet costs are higher. Our data permits us to establish a number of empirical facts related to the noncentrally cleared bilateral (NCCB) repo segment, and to repo activity overall, at the bank holding company level. We find that sizeable amounts of bilaterally-cleared activity would not be nettable even if centrally cleared. We also find that a significant portion of activity is already nettable outside of central clearing because dealers are structuring their NCCB trades to net. While expanded central clearing could have other benefits, such as imposing a more uniform margin regime on Treasury market intermediation, the scope of its effects on reducing balance sheet costs associated with the leverage ratio is limited.

Keywords: Treasury securities, Supplementary leverage ratio, Central clearing, Netting

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.057

Abstract:

We document a secular trend of increasing auto loan maturity from 30 months to over 70 months during the past 50 years, partly reflecting improved vehicle durability. Analyzing more than half of the auto loans originated during the past 16 years, we find that longer-maturity new car loans have significantly higher interest rates with a yield curve much steeper than comparable-maturity Treasury securities. In addition, we show that the majority of auto loans were prepaid, including loans of zero interest, and that many prepaying borrowers could have paid materially less interest by choosing loans of a shorter maturity. We argue that factors such as liquidity constraints, uncertainty about future income, and monthly payment targeting likely account for only a portion of borrowers' choice of long-maturity loans.

Keywords: Prepayment, Auto loan, Maturity choice, Household financial decisions, Term structure, Liquidity constraints

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.056

Abstract:

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Congress established the Emergency Rental Assistance (ERA) program, which provided nearly $45 billion to prevent evictions and increase housing stability. We provide new evidence on the implementation of ERA by examining the fine-grained geographic distribution of ERA funds and the timing of ERA expenditures by state and local governments. Using administrative data on ERA transactions, we find that ERA sent more funds per renting household to census tracts with higher pre-pandemic eviction filing rates, higher poverty rates, higher shares of Black renters, higher shares of renting households with children, and higher shares of renting single mothers. Our results suggest that ERA was largely successful in reaching communities that were most likely to have the highest risk of eviction. We also document that ERA spending increased substantially around the expiration of the federal eviction moratorium and at a time when eviction filings were increasing, which may confound quasi-experimental analysis of ERA.

Keywords: Emergency rental assistance, Eviction filings, Pandemic relief programs

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.055

Abstract:

Treasury yields have fallen since the 1980s. Standard decompositions of Treasury yields into expected short-term interest rates and term premiums suggest term premiums account for much of the decline. In an alternative real-time decomposition, term premiums have fluctuated in a stable range, while long-run expected short-term interest rates have fallen. For example, a real-time decomposition of the 10-yr. Treasury yield shows term premiums essentially equal in late 2013 and 2023, while the long-run value of expected short-term interest rates is estimated to have fallen in a manner similar to the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections and estimates from research on long-run neutral interest rates. These results suggest standard decompositions may overstate the role of term premiums in fluctuations of the yield curve.

Keywords: Term structure model, Recursive and rolling least squares; Real-time data

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.054

Abstract:

This paper studies how measured beliefs can be used to identify monetary non-neutrality. In a general equilibrium model with both nominal rigidities and endogenous information acquisition, we analytically characterize firms’ optimal dynamic information policies and how their beliefs affect monetary non-neutrality. We then show that data on the cross-sectional distributions of uncertainty and pricing durations are both necessary and sufficient to identify monetary non-neutrality. Finally, implementing our approach in New Zealand survey data, we find that informational frictions approximately double monetary non-neutrality and endogeneity of information is important: models with exogenous information would overstate monetary non-neutrality by approximately 50%.

Keywords: measured beliefs, nominal rigidities, rational inattention, monetary non-neutrality

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.053

Abstract:

We study the aggregate and distributional effects of monetary policy in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model that explicitly represents the life cycle of households. The model matches the age patterns in the level and dispersion of labor income and financial wealth in the U.S. despite the absence of preference heterogeneity and portfolio adjustment costs. Monetary policy affects the consumption of young households mainly through labor income and the consumption of old households mainly through asset returns. More than half of the aggregate consumption response to an expansionary monetary policy shock comes from those below the age of 40. The shock redistributes welfare from the wealthiest old to the poorest young and increases average welfare of most cohorts.

Keywords: heterogeneous agents New Keynesian (HANK) models, life cycle, monetary policy transmission

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.052

Abstract:

This paper proposes a parsimonious framework for designing contingent capital contracts (CoCos). CoCos designed this way (i) are either optimal or incentive compatible for equity holders, (ii) implement a unique equilibrium, and (iii) result in an optimal capital structure for the firm. We consider CoCos with equity conversion and write-down modalities. Equity conversion CoCos are optimal; write-down CoCos are incentive-compatible. Both types of CoCos can be implemented by exogenously specifying a capital ratio rule that triggers conversion and, hence, qualify as additional tier 1 (AT1) capital. A policymaker can use a normative criterion, e.g., capital ratio after conversion, to determine the desired capital ratio rule ex-ante. Given the policymaker's choice of the capital ratio rule, our model pins down the CoCo that respects (i), (ii), and (iii). We show that including such a CoCo in the firm's capital structure increases its optimal levered value while making it more resilient to bankruptcy. Lastly, CoCos in this framework are time-consistent. This characteristic alleviates the risk of renegotiation by stakeholders and removes the uncertainty of a discretionary trigger: precisely what spooked markets during the run on Credit Suisse in March 2023.

Keywords: Contingent convertible debt, Bail-in debt, Capital structure, Capital requirements, Bank regulation, Bank capital

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.051

Abstract:

We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of labor market outcomes and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job loss. In order to link our approach with previous theoretical and empirical work, we extend the procedure for estimating a Bayesian sign-restricted VAR so that priors can be directly imposed on the VAR's impact matrix. We find that structural shocks that shift the Beveridge curve have different effects on inflation. Our model allows us to fully decompose movements of or along the empirical Beveridge curve in terms of the contribution of each shock and also allows us to estimate the Phillips correlation associated with each shock; our results imply that observed Beveridge and Phillips correlations can change over time depending on what types of structural shocks predominate in a given period. Applying our model to the pandemic-related recession and recovery, we find that reallocation shocks were a key source of labor market dynamics during this period and explain how a post-pandemic "soft landing,’’ in which inflation declined without a significant rise in unemployment, was possible.

Keywords: Sign-restricted VAR, Bayesian methods, Labor market dynamics, Reallocation, Inflation, Beveridge curve, Phillips curve, Covid-19

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.050

Abstract:

This study scrutinizes the quality of “bottom-up” forecasts of near-term S&P 500 Composite earnings, derived by aggregating analysts’ forecasts for individual firm-level earnings. We examine whether forecasts are broadly consistent with current macroeconomic conditions reflected in economists’ near-term outlook and other available data. To the contrary, we find that a simple macroeconomic model of aggregate S&P 500 earnings, coupled with GDP forecasts from the Blue Chip Survey and recent dollar exchange rate movements, can predict large and statistically significant errors in equity analysts’ bottom-up forecasts for S&P 500 earnings in the current quarter and the quarter ahead. This finding is robust to the requirement that our econometric model is calibrated using only data available at the time of forecast. Moreover, the discrepancy between the macro-model-based earnings forecasts and analysts’ forecasts has predictive power for 3-month-ahead stock returns.

Keywords: Bottom-up Forecast, Earnings Forecasts, Equity Analyst Bias, Forecast Efficiency, Predicting Returns

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.049

Abstract:

We study the relationship between financial well-being and sexual orientation in the United States using Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED) data for 2019-2022. We document that people who are lesbian, gay, and bisexual (or LGB) have significantly more difficulty managing financially than similarly situated heterosexual individuals—and this pre-dated the COVID-19 pandemic. Differences are found across a broad array of current and future financial well-being outcomes, including retirement savings, rainy-day funds, credit card and schooling debts, and the use of alternative financial services such as payday loans. Differences in partnership, financial assistance from parents, financial knowledge, and risk preferences cannot explain these differences. Instead, we document that some social vulnerabilities such as exposure to discriminatory behavior and violence are differentially experienced by LGB people, which may play a role. Our results demonstrate that people who are lesbian, gay, and bisexual experience significantly more financial insecurity than previously understood.

Keywords: sexual orientation, financial well-being, debt, financial knowledge

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.048

Abstract:

In standard macroeconomic models, the costs of inflation are tightly linked to the price dispersion of identical goods. Therefore, understanding how price dispersion empirically relates to inflation is crucial for welfare analysis. In this paper, I study the relationship between steady-state inflation and price dispersion for a cross section of U.S. retail products using scanner data. By comparing prices of items with the same barcode, my measure of relative price dispersion controls for product heterogeneity, overcoming an important challenge in the literature. I document a new fact: price dispersion of identical goods increases steeply around zero inflation and becomes flatter as inflation increases, displaying a Y-shaped pattern. Current sticky-price models are inconsistent with this finding. I develop a menu-cost model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks and sequential consumer search that reproduces the new fact and exhibits realistic price-setting behavior. In the model, inflation-induced price dispersion increases shoppers' incentives to search for low prices and thus competition among retailers. The positive welfare-maximizing inflation rate optimally trades off the efficiency gains from lower markups and the resources spent on search.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.047

Abstract:

A significant share of commercial real estate (CRE) investment properties—about half by our estimates—are purchased without a mortgage. Using comprehensive microdata on transactions in the U.S. CRE market, we analyze which types of properties are purchased without a mortgage, highlighting the important role of renovation or redevelopment options. We show that mortgage-financed properties are less likely to be subsequently redeveloped, and that owners anticipate these redevelopment frictions and avoid mortgage financing for properties with greater redevelopment options. These effects were even stronger during the COVID-19 pandemic, when uncertainty increased redevelopment option values.

Keywords: Commercial real estate, Cash buyers, Redevelopment

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.046

Abstract:

We use high-frequency data to examine the effectiveness of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) in supporting the liquidity positions of vulnerable banks during the March 2023 banking turmoil. We uncover three key findings. First, our high-frequency data confirm that banks with high reliance on uninsured deposits and large unrealized losses on securities holdings suffered larger deposit outflows at the onset of the episode. Second, the BTFP played an outsized role in meeting these outflows at banks with larger securities losses, reflecting the at-par valuation of securities collateral at the BTFP (banks at the 90th percentile in securities losses replaced 26 cents of every dollar of outflows with BTFP borrowing, compared to only 7 cents on average). Third, in addition to funding loan growth and deposit outflows, banks used the BTFP to build cash holdings, indicating that the program enabled banks to position themselves against potential future funding needs. Overall, we demonstrate that the BTFP enabled banks to meet funding needs and preserve liquidity during the period of stress.

Keywords: 2023 banking turmoil, Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), deposit outflows, emergency liquidity facilities, securities losses, uninsured deposits

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.045

Abstract:

One in five banks in the United States share a similar name. This can increase the likelihood of confusion among customers in the event of an idiosyncratic shock to a similarly named bank. We find that banks that share their name with a failed bank experience a half percent drop in transaction deposits relative to banks with similar characteristics but different name. This effect doubles for failures that are covered in media. We rationalize our findings via a model of financial contagion without fundamental linkages. Our model explains that when distinguishing banks is more costly due to similar trademarks, depositors are more likely to confuse their banks' condition resulting in financial contagion.

Keywords: Bank Failures, Bank Runs, Banking, Trademarks

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.044

Abstract:

We review recent developments in the estimation and identification of the Phillips curve and its slope. We have three main objectives. First, we describe the econometric challenges faced by traditional approaches of estimating the Phillips curve, explain how new approaches address those challenges, and assess which limitations still remain. Second, we review the findings of those new approaches and examine the evidence regarding a potential flattening of the Phillips curve in the pre-pandemic period. Third, we provide an account of inflation dynamics in the post-pandemic period with a particular emphasis on the role of nonlinearities.

Keywords: Inflation dynamics, Phillips curve flattening, Phillips curve nonlinearities, Phillips curve slope

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.043

Abstract:

This paper examines the role of uncertainty on elasticities of trade flows with respect to variable trade costs in a canonical model of trade with monopolistic competition and heterogeneous firms. We identify two channels through which uncertainty impacts trade: through export participation thresholds (the selection effect) and the distribution of shocks governing export selection (the dispersion effect). While the selection effect dampens trade elasticities under uncertainty, the dispersion effect is ambiguous. We develop a methodology for using customs firm-level data to quantify trade elasticities under uncertainty, and the magnitude of each of the two channels through which uncertainty impacts trade. We find that uncertainty amplifies trade elasticities, on average, indicating that the dispersion effect of idiosyncratic firm-level shocks dominates -- though the effect is heterogeneous across industries. The overall magnitude of the endogenous selection mechanism on trade elasticities is small, indicating that the main drivers of trade in this class of trade models are overwhelmingly incumbent firms.

Keywords: Demand uncertainty, Extensive margin, Firm size distribution, Selection, Trade elasticities, Welfare

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.042

Abstract:

By examining statements made by the Federal Reserve leadership since the early 1950s, we establish that there has been considerable continuity in policymakers’ perceptions of the benefits of price stability. Policymakers have consistently contended that deviations from price stability give rise to greater cyclical instability, and they have also frequently suggested that potential output is significantly lowered by inflation. The recurrent support for price stability that comes through in these statements implies that it is invalid to take periods in the U.S. record of deviations from price stability as indicating a policymaker belief in the desirability of inflation.

Keywords: Dual mandate, Federal Reserve, Phillips curve, Price stability, Costs of inflation, Monetary policy objectives, Superneutrality

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.041

Abstract:

In over-the-counter (OTC) securities markets, interdealer markets are an important venue through which dealers can offload positions and share risk amongst themselves. Contrary to the popular conception that search frictions matter the most in OTC markets, we find that in the interdealer market for U.S. corporate bonds, information frictions are most relevant. Large dealers face large and informed customers and pay more than small dealers to transact in the interdealer market, despite on average providing liquidity to other dealers. Large dealers tend to trade through interdealer brokers (IDBs) to mitigate information leakage, but interdealer markets are still far from efficient.

Keywords: OTC markets, Information asymmetry, Interdealer markets

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.040

Abstract:

We show substantial variation in mutual funds’ use of Treasury futures, both over time and across funds. This variation from mutual funds drives much of the time series variation in aggregate Treasury futures open interest, including over 60% of the recent rise in Treasury futures positions. We provide evidence these Treasury futures positions are largely attributable to mutual funds “reaching for duration” in order to track the duration of a benchmark index with high cash Treasury exposure. Specifically, we show mutual funds use futures to fill the gap between their portfolio and the index that results when they tilt their cash positions toward higher return but lower duration assets, such as mortgage-backed securities and equities, and away from cash Treasuries. Treasury futures positions are more common in mutual funds which indicate a focus on dual objectives of duration management and total return whose style has a higher allocation to Treasuries. Reaching for duration allows funds to track their index better at lower cost, but increases leverage in the Treasury market both through mutual funds long Treasury futures positions and through the leverage of hedge funds who take the corresponding short positions in Treasury futures.

Keywords: Treasury markets, mutual funds, duration, indexing, futures, mortgage-backed securities

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.039

Abstract:

This paper reviews the economics literature of, primarily, the past 20 years that studies the link between income shocks and consumption fluctuations at the household level. We identify three broad approaches through which researchers estimate the consumption response to income shocks: (1) structural methods in which a fully or partially specified model helps identify the consumption response to income shocks from the data, (2) natural experiments in which the consumption response of one group that receives an income shock is compared with another group that does not, and (3) elicitation surveys in which consumers are asked how they expect to react to various hypothetical events.

Keywords: Consumption, Income, MPC

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.038

Abstract:

We develop a new approach to select risk factors in an asset pricing model that allows the set to change at multiple unknown break dates. Using the six factors displayed in Table 1 since 1963, we document a marked shift towards parsimonious models in the last two decades. Prior to 2005, five or six factors are selected, but just two are selected thereafter. This finding offers a simple implication for the factor zoo literature: ignoring breaks detects additional factors that are no longer relevant. Moreover, all omitted factors are priced by the selected factors in every regime. Finally, the selected factors outperform popular factor models as an investment strategy.

Keywords: Model comparison, Factor models, Structural breaks, Anomaly, Bayesian analysis, Discount factor, Portfolio analysis, Sparsity.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.037

Abstract:

We document novel facts about U.S. household preferences over inflation and monetary policy. Many households are highly attentive to news about monetary policy and to interest rates. The median household perceives the Federal Reserve's inflation target to be three percent, but would prefer it to be lower. Quantifying the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, we find an average acceptable sacrifice ratio of 0.6, implying that households are likely to find disinflation costly. Average preferences are well represented by a non-linear loss function with near equal weights on inflation and unemployment. These preferences also exhibit sizable demographic heterogeneity.

Keywords: Household Survey, Attention, Inflation Target, Sacrifice Ratio, Dual Mandate

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.036

Abstract:

The world economy has experienced the largest financial crisis in generations, a global pandemic, and a resurgence in inflation during the first quarter of the 21st century, yielding important insights for central banking. Price stability has important benefits and is the responsibility of a central bank. Achieving price stability in a complex and uncertain environment involves a credible commitment to a nominal anchor with a strong response to inflation and pre-emptive leaning against an overheating economy. Associated challenges imply that central bank communication and transparency are key elements of monetary policy strategies and tactics. Crises have emphasized the role of central banks in promoting financial stability, as financial stability is key to achieving price and economic stability, but this role increases risks to independence. Goals for central banks other than price and economic stability, complemented by financial stability, can make it more difficult for them to stabilize both inflation and economic activity.

Keywords: central bank governance, central banking, financial stability, monetary policy, science of central banking

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.035

Abstract:

Eurodollar futures were the bedrock for constructing high-frequency series of monetary policy surprises, so their discontinuation poses a challenge for the continued empirical study of monetary policy. We propose an approach for updating the series of Gürkaynak et al. (2005) and Nakamura and Steinsson (2018) with SOFR futures in place of Eurodollar futures that is conceptually and materially consistent. We recommend using SOFR futures from January 2022 onward based on regulatory developments and trading volumes. The updated series suggest that surprises over the recent tightening cycle are larger in magnitude than those seen over the decade prior and restrictive on average.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.034

Abstract:

I assess monetary policy strategies to foster price stability and labor market strength. The assessment incorporates a range of challenges, including uncertainty regarding the equilibrium real interest rate, mismeasurement of economic potential, and balancing the costs and benefits associated with employment shortfalls and labor market strength. I find that the ELB remains a significant constraint, hindering achievement of the inflation objective and worsening employment shortfalls. Symmetric policy reaction functions mitigate the most adverse effects of employment shortfalls by contributing to economic stability. Make-up strategies address ELB risks. These strategies call for policy to accommodate some period of inflation above its long-run objective following an ELB episode. I also consider an asymmetric shortfalls approach to policy. This approach provides accommodation in response to weak activity while foregoing tightening in response to strong activity. While the approach can, in principle, address ELB risks by raising inflation, it performs poorly. The shortfalls approach exacerbates economic volatility, worsens employment shortfalls, and creates excess inflationary pressures. Mismeasurement is not sufficient to limit the importance of strong responses to measured slack. Overall, monetary policy can promote price stability and labor market strength by focusing on economic stability, with a strategy targeted to address ELB risks.

Keywords: Monetary policy, Rules and discretion, effective lower bound, symmetric loss function, asymmetric loss function

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.033

Abstract:

Activity shortfalls are more costly than strong activity. I consider optimal monetary policy under discretion with an asymmetric (activity shortfalls) loss function. The model satisfies the natural rate hypothesis. The asymmetric loss function and resulting optimal monetary policy exacerbates shortfalls in activity. The additional frequency of activity shortfalls arises from the adjustment of expectations implied by the natural rate hypothesis. The shortfalls asymmetry leads to an inflationary bias, similar to results in the time-consistency literature. Mandating a central bank objective with greater symmetry than the social loss function improves outcomes. Greater symmetry lowers the magnitude of activity shortfalls. Greater symmetry also reduces inflation bias. The model also implies that an optimal monetary policy does not accommodate fluctuations from aggregate demand shocks, as is standard in such models. As a result, the analysis implies that monetary accommodation of strength in economic activity likely requires justifications other than asymmetric costs of shortfalls.

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Rules, discretion, symmetric loss function, asymmetric loss function

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.032

Abstract:

We show that supply networks are inefficiently, and insufficiently, resilient. Upstream firms can expand their production capacity to hedge against supply and demand shocks. The social benefits of such investments are not internalized, however, because of market power and market incompleteness. Upstream firms underinvest in capacity and resilience, passing on the costs to downstream firms, and drive trade excessively toward the spot markets. There is a wedge between the market solution and a constrained optimal benchmark, which persists even without rare and large shocks. Policies designed to incentivize capacity investment, reduce reliance on spot markets, and enhance competition ameliorate the externality.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.031

Abstract:

A central aspect of poverty measurement is how well the measure can identify the people and places that are experiencing financial hardships. This paper explores the relationship between poverty and financial hardship by using the CFPB’s financial well-being scale, which reflects individuals’ self-assessments of their financial challenges. Using this measure, for every 1 percentage point increase in a state’s official poverty rate for working-age adults, there is a 0.59 percentage point increase in the share of working-age adults with very low financial well-being. In contrast, the state’s supplemental poverty rate is negatively correlated with the rate of financial hardship using the CFPB measure. This finding is due to the supplemental poverty measure’s geographic adjustment shifting poverty towards areas that have lower rates of self-reported financial hardship.

Keywords: Cost of living adjustments, Poverty, Well-being

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.030

Abstract:

We estimate the effects of personal income tax decreases on financial well-being, including qualitative subjective assessments and quantitative measures. A plausibly causal design shows that tax decreases in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act made survey respondents more likely to say they were “living comfortably” financially, with null effects at lower levels of subjective financial well-being. Estimates from a similar design using credit bureau data show that people who had larger tax decreases were modestly more likely to open new accounts, and more likely to have higher consumer credit balances. Tax decreases had effects on credit scores that are indistinguishable from zero. Results suggest that larger tax decreases improve financial wellbeing in ways not fully proxied by typical administrative data.

Keywords: Taxes, subjective well-being, household finances, credit, financial well-being

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.029

Abstract:

We study probabilities of extreme inflation events in the United States and the euro area. Using a state-space model that incorporates information from a large set of professional forecasters, we generate the term structure of inflation forecasts as well as probabilities of future inflation for any range of inflation outcomes in closed form at any horizon. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation expectations increased materially amid heightened uncertainty about future inflation. Likelihood of significant departures of inflation targets in the longer term reached about 15 percent in the middle of 2022, increasing from near zero levels in 2020. Such an increase in the right tail of the probability distribution over future inflation outcomes drives an increase in inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums. Several popular external uncertainty measures are associated with variation in tail probabilities.

Keywords: inflation anchoring, inflation forecasts, inflation state-space model, probability of rare inflation events

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.028

Abstract:

We study the relationship between government debt and interest rates in an environment where financial market participants have limited foresight about the future path of government debt. We show that limited foresight substantially attenuates estimates of the effect of government debt on longer-term yields relative to the benchmark of rational expectations often used in empirical analysis.

Keywords: government debt, longer-term interest rates, term premiums, limited foresight

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.027

Abstract:

This paper examines the link between industrial production and the sentiment expressed in natural language survey responses from U.S. manufacturing firms. We compare several natural language processing (NLP) techniques for classifying sentiment, ranging from dictionary-based methods to modern deep learning methods. Using a manually labeled sample as ground truth, we find that deep learning models--partially trained on a human-labeled sample of our data--outperform other methods for classifying the sentiment of survey responses. Further, we capitalize on the panel nature of the data to train models which predict firm-level production using lagged firm-level text. This allows us to leverage a large sample of "naturally occurring" labels with no manual input. We then assess the extent to which each sentiment measure, aggregated to monthly time series, can serve as a useful statistical indicator and forecast industrial production. Our results suggest that the text responses provide information beyond the available numerical data from the same survey and improve out-of-sample forecasting; deep learning methods and the use of naturally occurring labels seem especially useful for forecasting. We also explore what drives the predictions made by the deep learning models, and find that a relatively small number of words--associated with very positive/negative sentiment--account for much of the variation in the aggregate sentiment index.

Keywords: Industrial Production, Natural Language Processing, Machine Learning, Forecasting

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.026

Abstract:

This paper examines corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) outcomes under lender scrutiny. Using the unique shocks of U.S. supervisory stress testing, we find that firms under increased lender scrutiny after their relationship banks fail stress tests engage in fewer but higher-quality M&A deals. Evidence from comprehensive supervisory data reveals improved credit quality for newly originated M&A-related loans under enhanced lender scrutiny. This improvement is further evident in positive stock return reactions to M&A deals financed by loans subject to enhanced lender scrutiny. As companies engage in fewer but higher-quality deals, they also experience higher returns on assets. Our findings highlight the importance of lender scrutiny in corporate M&A activities.

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions, Lender Scrutiny, Stress Tests

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.025

Abstract:

We conduct a survey-based experiment with 2,776 students at a non-profit university to analyze income insurance demand in education financing. We offered students a hypothetical choice: either a federal loan with income-driven repayment or an income-share agreement (ISA), with randomized framing of downside protections. Emphasizing income insurance increased ISA uptake by 43%. We observe that students are responsive to changes in contract terms and possible student loan cancellation, which is evidence of preference adjustment or adverse selection. Our results indicate that framing specific terms can increase demand for higher education insurance to potentially address risk for students with varying outcomes.

Keywords: Adverse Selection, Education Finance, Higher Education, Income Share Agreements, Student Loans

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.024

Abstract:

To encourage survey participation and improve sample representativeness, the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) offers an unconditional pre-paid monetary incentive and separate post-paid incentive upon survey completion. We conducted a pre-registered between-subject randomized control experiment within the 2022 SCF, with at least 1,200 households per experimental group, to examine whether changing the pre-paid incentive structure affects survey outcomes. We assess the effects of: (1) altering the total dollar value of the pre-paid incentive (“incentive effect”), (2) giving two identical pre-paid incentives holding the total dollar value fixed (“reminder effect”), and (3) offering multiple pre-paid incentives of different amounts holding the total dollar value fixed (“slope effect”) on survey response rates, interviewer burden, and data quality. Our evidence indicates that a single $15 pre-paid incentive increases response rates and maintains similar levels of interviewer burden and data quality, relative to a single $5 pre-paid incentive. Splitting the $15 into two pre-paid incentives of different amounts increases interviewer burden though lengthening time in the field without improving response rates, reducing the number of contact attempts needed for a response, or improving data quality, regardless of whether the first pre-paid is larger or smaller than the second.

Keywords: Pre-paid incentives, unconditional incentives, sequential incentives, response rates, surveys, data quality, household finance

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.023

Abstract:

The common ownership hypothesis (COH) states that firms with common shareholders, primarily large asset managers, compete less aggressively with each other. The U.S. banking industry is well suited to assess the common ownership hypothesis, because thousands of private banks without common ownership (CO) compete with hundreds of public banks with high and increasing levels of CO. This paper assesses the COH in the banking industry using more comprehensive ownership data than previous studies. In simple comparisons of raw deposit rate averages we document that the deposit rates of public banks are similar in markets where they share common shareholders with their rival and in markets where they do not. Panel regressions of deposit rates on the profit weights implied by the COH are generally not consistent with the COH if bank-quarter FEs are included. These estimates are “precise zeros” with 95% CIs suggesting that the threefold rise in CO among public banks between 2005 and 2022 moved their deposit rates by less than a quarter of a basis point in either direction. To assess the COH along non-price dimensions we also estimate the effect of CO on deposit quantities, and find that the estimates are also not consistent with the COH.

Keywords: Bank Competition, Common Ownership

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.022r1

Abstract:

A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is a form of digital money that is denominated in the national unit of account and constitutes a direct liability of the central bank. We examine the financial stability risks and benefits of issuing a CBDC under different design options. Our analysis is based on lessons derived from historical case studies as well as on an analytical framework that allows us to characterize the mechanisms through which a CBDC can affect financial stability. We further discuss various policy tools that can be employed to mitigate financial stability risks.

Keywords: CBDC, financial stability, runs, stablecoins, central bank liabilities, regulation

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.021

Abstract:

We explore a new source of data on layoffs: timely 8-K filings with the Securities and and Exchange Commission. We develop measures of both the number of reported layoff events and the number of affected workers. These series are highly correlated with the business cycle and other layoff indicators. Linking firm-level reported layoff events with WARN notices suggests that 8-K filings are sometimes available before WARN notices, and preliminary regression results suggest our layoff series are useful for forecasting. We also document the industry composition of the data and specific areas where the industry shares diverge.

Keywords: Alternative Data, Forecasting, Labor Markets, Large Language Models, Layoffs, Natural Language Processing

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.020

Abstract:

We use model-implied volatility to proxy for property risk perceptions in the commercial real estate lending market. Although loan-to-value ratios (LTVs) unconditionally decreased following the Global Financial Crisis, LTVs conditioned on implied volatility and other theoretically motivated fundamental determinants of optimal leverage show no conclusive trend before or after the crisis. Taking reported property and loan attributes at face value, we find no clear pattern of unwarranted credit being extended to commercial real estate assets. We conclude that systematically higher LTV decisions pre-crisis would have primarily stemmed from risk misperceptions rather than imprudent practices. Our findings suggest that the aggregate LTV level should be interpreted as a proxy for lending standards only after controlling for aggregate risk perceptions, among a host of asset and lending market factors. Our findings also highlight the importance of measuring and tracking aggregate risk perceptions in informing regulators and policymakers.

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis, Implied volatility, Lending standards, Loan underwriting, Mortgages, Real estate finance

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.019

Abstract:

We examine how a student’s field of degree and institution attended contribute to the labor market outcomes of young graduates. Administrative panel data that combines student transcripts with matched employer-employee records allow us to provide the first decomposition of premia into individual and firm-specific components. We find that both major and institutional premia are more strongly related to the firm-specific component of wages than the individual-specific component of wages. On average, a student’s major is a more important predictor of future wages than the selectivity of the institution attended, but major premia (and their relative ranking) can differ substantially across institutions, suggesting the importance of program-level data for prospective students and their parents.

Keywords: College Major, College Premium, Firm Effect, Higher Education, Returns to Institution, Wage Decomposition

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.018

Abstract:

Targeted financing of transition to a "net zero" global economy entails climate transition risk. We propose a measure of transition risk at the country-sector dyad level composed of five tiers of transition risk based on two factors: i) the gap between a dyad's existing emission factor (EF) – a measure of the greenhouse gas intensity of output – and the global 'frontier' sectoral EF, and ii) a dyad's recent convergence towards the frontier EF. Dyads that are either close to the frontier or converging towards the frontier carry lower transition risk. Our measure, using 45 sectors across 66 countries, accounts for both direct greenhouse gas emissions as well as those that enter into production through complex supply chains as captured by intercountry, input-output tables, and can be applied at different levels of stringency to high-, middle-, and low-income economies. Our measure thus accounts for, and sheds light on, EF reductions through investment in lower emissions production techniques in own facilities as well as sourcing intermediate inputs with lower embodied emissions.

Keywords: convergence, direct emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, production emissions, transition risk

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.017

Abstract:

We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long—about 1.5 years on average—and highly variable, (2) roughly one-third of projects are abandoned in planning, (3) property price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment. We construct a model with endogenous planning starts and abandonment that matches these facts. Endogenous abandonment make short-term building supply more elastic, as price shocks immediately affect the exercise of construction options rather than just planning starts. The model has the testable implication that supply is more elastic when there are more “shovel ready” projects available to advance to construction. We use local projections to validate that this prediction holds in the cross-section for U.S. cities.

Keywords: Commercial real estate, Construction, Time to plan

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.016

Abstract:

We show how private equity (PE) buyouts fuel loan sales and non-bank participation in the U.S. syndicated loan market. Combining loan-level data from the Shared National Credit register with buyout deals from Pitchbook, we find that PE-backed loans feature lower bank monitoring, lower loan shares retained by the lead bank, and more loan sales to non-bank financial intermediaries. For PE-backed loans, the sponsor’s reputation and the strength of its relationship with the lead bank further reduce the lead bank’s retained share and monitoring. Our results suggest that PE sponsor engagement substitutes for bank monitoring, allowing banks to retain less skin-in-the game in the loans they originate and to sell greater loan shares to non-banks.

Keywords: Syndicated Loans, Private Equity, LBO, Bank Monitoring, CLO, Securitization, Loan Sales

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.015

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the properties of expected return estimators on individual assets implied by the linear factor models of asset pricing, i.e., the product of β and λ. We provide the asymptotic properties of factor-model-based expected return estimators, which yield the standard errors for risk premium estimators for individual assets. We show that using factor-model-based risk premium estimates leads to sizable precision gains compared to using historical averages. Finally, inference about expected returns does not suffer from a small-beta bias when factors are traded. The more precise factor-model-based estimates of expected returns translate into sizable improvements in out-of-sample performance of optimal portfolios.

Keywords: Cross Section of Expected Returns, Risk Premium, Small β's

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.014

Abstract:

This paper explores the impact of two fiscal programs, the Economic Impact Payments and the Paycheck Protection Program, on vehicle purchases and relates our findings to post-pandemic price pressures. We find that receiving a stimulus check increased the probability of purchasing new vehicles. In addition, the disbursement of funds from the Paycheck Protection Program was associated with a rise in local new car registrations. Our estimates indicate that these two programs account for a boost of 1 3/4 million units—or 12 percent—to new car sales in 2020. Furthermore, the induced boost in sales coincided with the presence of significant production constraints and exacerbated an inventory drawdown, thereby contributing to the rapid increase in new vehicle prices that prevailed in the subsequent years.

Keywords: Discretionary Fiscal Policy, Light Vehicle Purchases, Inflation

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.013

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic had disproportionate impacts on women’s employment, especially for mothers with school-age and younger children. However, the impacts likely varied depending on the type of policy response adopted by various governments. New Zealand presents a unique policy setting in which one of the strictest lockdown restrictions was combined with a generous wage subsidy scheme to secure employment. We utilize tax records to compare employment patterns of parents from the pandemic period (treatment group) to similar parents from a recent pre-pandemic period (control group). For mothers whose youngest child is aged between one and 12, we find a 1-2-percentage point decline in the likelihood of being employed in the first six months of the pandemic; for fathers, we hardly see any significant changes in employment. Additionally, the decline in mothers’ employment rates is mainly driven by those not employed in the month before the lockdown. We also find similar employment patterns for future parents who had no children during the evaluation period. This indicates that the adverse labour market impacts are not uniquely experienced by mothers, but by women in general.

Keywords: Pandemic, Employment. Parental gap, Administrative data

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.012

Abstract:

Different series of high-frequency monetary shocks can have a correlation coefficient as low as 0.5 and the same sign in only two-thirds of observations. Both data and methods drive these differences, which are starkest when the federal funds rate is at its effective lower bound. Methods that exploit the differential responsiveness of short- and long-term asset prices can incorporate additional information. After documenting differences in monetary shocks, we explore their consequence for inference. We find that empirical estimates of monetary policy transmission from local projections and VARs are less affected by shock choice than forecast revision specifications.

Keywords: High-frequency monetary policy shocks, Monetary policy transmission, Empirical monetary economics.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.011

Abstract:

Using a novel data set of U.S. residential land developments, we document that the average time to develop residential properties—which includes both the time spent preparing land infrastructures and construction—is about three years, consistent with sizable lags in housing investment projects. We show that the time to develop is highly dispersed across locations, a finding that helps quantify the housing supply elasticity that is relevant for assessing local housing variations over the business cycle. We also show that incorporating long and dispersed time to develop into an otherwise standard housing investment model helps rationalize some empirical facts on the housing market. Our model implies that policies to boost housing supply are less effective in immediately stabilizing house prices for regions where land development takes a long time.

Keywords: house price dynamics, housing supply, residential investment

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.010

Abstract:

Concerns have lingered since the 2007 subprime crisis that government housing policies promote risky mortgage lending. The first peer-reviewed evidence of a causal effect was published by the Review of Financial Studies in a paper (Saadi, 2020) linking the crisis to changes in the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in 1995. A review of that paper, however, shows that it misrepresents the policy changes as having taken effect in mid-1998, 2.5 years after they were implemented. When the correct timing is used, a similar analysis yields no evidence of a relationship between CRA and riskier mortgage lending. Instead, the results are shown to reflect an unrelated confounding event, the first collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market following Russia’s debt default in August 1998.

Keywords: Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), house prices, mortgage lending, subprime crisis

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.009

Abstract:

Price theory says that the most important effects of policy and technological change are often found beyond their first point of contact. This appears opposed to econometric methods that rule out spillovers of one person's treatment on another's outcomes. This paper uses the industry model from price theory to represent the statistical concepts of treatments and controls. When treated and control observations are in the same market, the controls are indirectly affected by the treatment. Moreover, even the effect of the treatment on the treated reveals only part of the consequence for the treated of treating the entire market, which is often the parameter of interest. Marshall's Laws of Derived Demand provide a guide for empirical work: precise price-theoretic interpretations of the direct and spillover effects of a treatment, the quantitative relationships between them, and how they correspond to the scale and substitution effects emphasized in price theory.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.008

Abstract:

We find that each of the past four generations of Americans was better off than the previous one, using a post-tax, post-transfer income measure constructed annually from 1963-2022 based on the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement. At age 36–40, Millennials had a real median household income that was 18 percent higher than that of the previous generation at the same age. This rate of intergenerational progress was slower than that experienced by the Silent Generation (34 percent) and Baby Boomers (27 percent), but similar to that experienced by Generation X (16 percent). Slower progress for Generation X and Millennials is due to their stalled growth in work hours—holding work hours constant, they experienced a greater intergenerational increase in real market income than Baby Boomers. Intergenerational progress for Millennials under age 30 has remained robust as well, although their income growth largely results from higher reliance on their parents. We also find that the higher educational costs incurred by younger generations is far outweighed by their lifetime income gains.

Keywords: Full income, Growth, Generations, Mobility, Millennials

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.007

Abstract:

The equity and debt prices of large nonbank firms contain information about the future state of the banking system. In this sense, banks are informationally central. The amount of this information varies over time and over equity and debt. During a financial crisis banks are, by definition of a crisis, at risk of failure. Debt prices became about 50 percent more informative than equity prices about the future state of the banking system during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. This was partly due to investors' fears that banks might not be able to refinance the firms' debt.

Keywords: Price informativeness, Asset pricing, Banking system, Financial crises

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.006

Abstract:

Canonical menu cost models, when parameterized to match the micro-price data, cannot reproduce the extent to which the fraction of price changes increases with inflation. They also predict implausibly large menu costs and misallocation in the presence of strategic complementarities. We resolve these shortcomings by extending the multiproduct menu cost model along two dimensions. First, the products sold by a firm are imperfect substitutes. Second, strategic complementarities are at the firm, not product level. In contrast to standard models, the fraction of price changes increases rapidly with the size of monetary shocks, so our model implies a non-linear Phillips curve.

Keywords: Menu costs, Inflation, Phillips curve

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.005

Abstract:

Changes in pay and benefits alone incorrectly predict self-assessed changes in overall job quality 30 percent of the time, according to survey evidence from job changers. Job changers also place more emphasis on their interest in their work than they do on pay and benefits in evaluating whether their new job is better. Parents particularly emphasize work-life balance, and we find some indications that mothers value it more than fathers. Improvements in pay are highly correlated with improvements in other amenities for workers with less education but not for workers with a bachelor's degree or more. The higher positive correlation implies that differences in pay and benefits understate differences in total job quality to a greater degree among workers with less education.

Keywords: Job quality, Amenities, Surveys, Employment

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.004

Abstract:

We analyze the content of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) communications and whether it provides information to the crude oil market. To this end, we derive an empirical strategy which allows us to measure OPEC's public signal and test whether market participants find it credible. Using Structural Topic Models, we analyze OPEC narratives and identify several topics related to fundamental factors, such as demand, supply, and speculative activity in the crude oil market. Importantly, we find that OPEC communication reduces oil price volatility and prompts market participants to rebalance their positions. Our analysis indicates that market participants assess OPEC communications as providing an important signal to the crude oil market.

Keywords: OPEC Announcements, Structural Topic Models, Volatility, Traders' Positions

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.003

Abstract:

This paper analyzes a model of the mortgage market, considering scenarios with and without government-sponsored mortgage securitization. Conventional wisdom says that securitization, by fostering diversification and creating a “safe” asset in the form of mortgage-backed security (MBS), will reduce risk and enhance liquidity, thereby mitigating financial crises. We construct a strategic-game framework to model the interaction between the securitizer and banks. In this framework, the securitizer initiates the process by setting the MBS contract terms, which includes the guaranteed rate and the criterion that qualifies a mortgage for securitization. The bank then selects which qualifying mortgages to exchange for the MBS. Our investigation leads to a key result: government-sponsored securitization, somewhat counterintuitively, is more likely to exacerbate the severity and frequency of financial crises.

Keywords: Financial Crises, Government Sponsored, Mortgage Market, Mortgage-backed securities (MBS), Securitization

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.002

Abstract:

This paper develops an analytical framework aimed at shedding light on the implications of the evolution of financial market structure for monetary policy implementation and transmission. The basic model builds on that developed in Chen et. al. (2014) which, in turn, draws inspiration from the pioneering work of Tobin (1969) and Gurley and Shaw (1960). The paper focuses, in particular, on the implications of introducing new types of fixed-rate financial assets in the financial system including retail and wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC), stablecoins issued by narrow nonbanks, and deposits issued by narrow banks. The analysis also provides a crude way of capturing some of the effects of bank capital and liquidity regulation on financial intermediation and monetary policy implementation. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that the introduction of new fixed-rate assets by the Federal Reserve or by other financial intermediaries can have significant effects on equilibrium interest rates and patterns of financial intermediation and may also affect the potency of monetary policy tools. These effects are most pronounced when new financial assets are close substitutes for existing financial assets.

Keywords: Bank Regulation, Financial Innovation, Monetary Policy Implementation, Monetary policy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.001