Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)
May 2016
Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?
Yi Che, Yi Lu, Justin R. Pierce, Peter K. Schott, and Zhigang Tao
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance.
Keywords: China, Elections, Import Competition, Normal Trade Relations, Voting, World Trade Organization
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.039
PDF: Full Paper