Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)
February 2026
Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets
Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright
Abstract:
Prediction markets offer a new market-based approach to measuring macroeconomic expectations in real-time. We evaluate the accuracy of prediction market-implied forecasts from Kalshi, the largest federally regulated prediction market overseen by the CFTC. We compare Kalshi with more traditional survey and market-implied forecasts, examine how expectations respond to macroeconomic and financial news, and how policy signals are interpreted by market participants. Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.
Keywords: Kalshi, Federal Reserve, prediction markets, expectations, forecasting
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2026.010
PDF: Full Paper
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