February 2024 (Revised November 2024)

Monetary Policy Shocks: Data or Methods?

Connor M. Brennan, Margaret M. Jacobson, Christian Matthes, Todd B. Walker

Abstract:

Different series of high-frequency monetary shocks can have a correlation coefficient as low as 0.3 and the same sign in only one half of observations. Both data and methods drive these differences, which are starkest when the federal funds rate is at its effective lower bound. After documenting differences in monetary shock series, we explore their consequence for inference in several specifications. We find that empirical estimates of monetary policy transmission have few qualitative differences. We caution that inference may not be entirely robust to all shock constructions because qualitative differences can emerge when we interchange data and methods.

Keywords: High-frequency monetary policy shocks, Monetary policy transmission, Empirical monetary economics.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.011r1

PDF: Full Paper

Original Paper: PDF | Accessible materials (.zip)

Disclaimer: The economic research that is linked from this page represents the views of the authors and does not indicate concurrence either by other members of the Board's staff or by the Board of Governors. The economic research and their conclusions are often preliminary and are circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The Board values having a staff that conducts research on a wide range of economic topics and that explores a diverse array of perspectives on those topics. The resulting conversations in academia, the economic policy community, and the broader public are important to sharpening our collective thinking.

Back to Top
Last Update: October 09, 2024