Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)
August 2023
Options on Interbank Rates and Implied Disaster Risk
Hitesh Doshi, Hyung Joo Kim, Sang Byung Seo
Abstract:
The identification of disaster risk has remained a significant challenge due to the rarity of macroeconomic disasters. We show that the interbank market can help characterize the time variation in disaster risk. We propose a risk-based model in which macroeconomic disasters are likely to coincide with interbank market failure. Using interbank rates and their options, we estimate our model via MLE and filter out the short-run and long-run components of disaster risk. Our estimation results are independent of the stock market and serve as an external validity test of rare disaster models, which are typically calibrated to match stock moments.
Keywords: economic disasters, extended Kalman filter, interbank rate options, interbank rates, maximum likelihood estimation, time-varying disaster risk
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2023.054
PDF: Full Paper
Related Materials: Accessible materials (.zip)
Disclaimer: The economic research that is linked from this page represents the views of the authors and does not indicate concurrence either by other members of the Board's staff or by the Board of Governors. The economic research and their conclusions are often preliminary and are circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The Board values having a staff that conducts research on a wide range of economic topics and that explores a diverse array of perspectives on those topics. The resulting conversations in academia, the economic policy community, and the broader public are important to sharpening our collective thinking.