Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)
April 2024
Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation
Leland D. Crane, Emily Green, Molly Harnish, Will McClennan, Paul E. Soto, Betsy Vrankovich, and Jacob Williams
Abstract:
We explore a new source of data on layoffs: timely 8-K filings with the Securities and and Exchange Commission. We develop measures of both the number of reported layoff events and the number of affected workers. These series are highly correlated with the business cycle and other layoff indicators. Linking firm-level reported layoff events with WARN notices suggests that 8-K filings are sometimes available before WARN notices, and preliminary regression results suggest our layoff series are useful for forecasting. We also document the industry composition of the data and specific areas where the industry shares diverge.
Keywords: Alternative Data, Forecasting, Labor Markets, Large Language Models, Layoffs, Natural Language Processing
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.020
PDF: Full Paper
Disclaimer: The economic research that is linked from this page represents the views of the authors and does not indicate concurrence either by other members of the Board's staff or by the Board of Governors. The economic research and their conclusions are often preliminary and are circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The Board values having a staff that conducts research on a wide range of economic topics and that explores a diverse array of perspectives on those topics. The resulting conversations in academia, the economic policy community, and the broader public are important to sharpening our collective thinking.