Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Abstract:

This paper examines several aspects of the problem of international debt that has been a feature of the world economy of the 1980s. First, the paper considers the sources or causes of these problems. It goes on to consider responses to those problems, the outlook for international lending, and the criteria that might be used to conclude that they have been dealt with effectively. The paper concludes by examining some of the risks to continued progress in dealing with the problem of international debt.

Abstract:

Very little has been written about the cost competitiveness of the market for Europaper (Euronotes and Eurocommercial paper) despite the extraordinarily rapid growth of this market over the past three years. This paper tries to compare costs to the borrower on 3-month Europaper with similar costs in the U.S. commercial paper market. On the basis of weekly data in the period June-October, the conclusion is reached that the costs may have been lower in the Europaper market roughly one-third to one-half of the time. Rates paid to investors are, at most times and for most borrowers, lower in the U.S. market than in the Euromarket, but the higher remuneration to dealers in the U.S. market frequently means that all-in costs to the borrower are lower in the Euromarket. Because of the nature and limitations of the data, cost comparisons were limited to estimated rates paid in the two markets only by borrowers whose U.S. commercial paper is rated P-1 or A-1. U.S. market borrowing costs were estimated from published composite rates for double-A borrowers, with adjustments where the long-term debt rating of the borrower was not double-A, and from market reports about dealer fees. Europaper borrowing costs had to be inferred from secondary market quotations. Fluctuations in the relative rates suggest the frequent appearance and disappearance of "windows of opportunity" for borrowing in the market with the lower cost at the time.

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the growth of unemployment in Europe in the late 70s and early 80s. Unemployment has risen to double digit rates in many countries, rates which are not considered likely to fall much in the rest of the 80s. A theory--'the disease'--is expounded, with empirical evidence from the Federal Republic of Germany. The disease is characterized by high unemployment and low output growth, these being systematic rather than the consequence of some temporary phenomenon such as the downphase of the business cycle. Consequently we present a 'natural rate' explanation as an underlying determinant of unemployment with consideration given to the role of the business cycle in recent German unemployment. The latter role is examined with the use of a full macroeconomic model of the Federal Republic. The model is new-classical with two of its most distinguishing features being the assumption of rational expectations throughout and the endogenous determination of natural rates. We find that the natural rate of unemployment in Germany more than trebled its 1973 level by the end of the 70s, reaching 1.21 million by 1982 before falling to 1.16 million in 1983. We suggest that Germany may have caught the now familiar 'British disease'--that is, the prevention of real wage adjustment, via unemployment benefits and social aid.

Abstract:

This paper presents a detailed description of how the Flow of Funds' foreign sector asset and liability account is derived. The statistics found in the Flow of Funds' (FOF) foreign sector are related to the Commerce Department's U.S. International Investment Position (IIP) tabulation; a survey of information sources for the foreign sector shows how these data are largely reconcilable with the Commerce Department's IIP. A second section of the paper, based on these statistics, offers some observations about recent developments in the United States' net international investment position.

Abstract:

This paper develops an intertemporal, international asset pricing model for use in applied theoretical and empirical research. An important feature of the model is that it incorporates both stochastic inflation rates and stochastic Purchasing Power Parity deviations (PPP). The model derives the equilibrium real return on assets, and obtains empirically tractable reduced form equations which can be used to examine such issues as capital market segmentation, currency substitution, exchange rate volatility, and the forward exchange market's risk premium. Mechanically, the model begins as a system of stochastic differential equations which describe the dynamic paths of a vector of state variables, prices, and PPP deviations. The state variables' intertemporal development determines the production and credit opportunities, and provides the model's fundamental dynamic nature. The model is shown to be consistent with the domestic-general equilibrium asset pricing models of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985) and Brock (1982). The model is applied to pricing forward exchange, and an empirically tractable equation of the risk premium is derived which will allow researchers to uncover the risk premium's economic determinants.

Abstract:

The FRB Multicountry Model (MCM) is a linked system of five quarterly national macroeconometric models of the United States, Canada, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The MCM emphasizes international linkages, and has equations for trade in goods and services, investment income flows, and exchange rates. This paper documents the current version of the MCM. The paper describes the theoretical structure of the model, and presents the empirical estimation results. The paper also describes a series of simulations of fiscal and monetary policy scenarios and external shocks. A complete listing of the model is given in an appendix.

Abstract:

Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater than the forward premium, implying that investors were willing to accept a lower expected return on dollar assets. At short-term horizons expectations exhibit bandwagon effects, while at longer-term horizons they show the reverse. A 10 percent yen appreciation generates the expectation of a further appreciation of 2.4 percent over the following week, for example, but a depreciation of 3.4 percent over the following year. At any horizon, investors would do better to reduce the absolute magnitude of expected depreciation. The true spot rate process behaves more like a random walk.

Abstract:

The announcement of a plan to cut the U.S. federal budget deficit through the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings legislation provides an excellent opportunity to examine the influence of expectations on economic behavior. This paper presents a small forward-looking macroeconomic model and simulates the effects of the announcement of a multistaged reduction in the fiscal deficit. Open and closed economy specifications are compared and contrasted to highlight the importance of international transmission mechanisms in macroeconomic adjustment. The results of the simulations are compared with the stylized facts of the U.S. macroeconomy over the period surrounding the passage of the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings legislation.

Abstract:

This paper applies a new method to investigate the foreign exchange risk premium. The method is new in the sense that it utilizes the time-varying second moment expectations implied by foreign currency option pricing. The vast empirical literature on the risk premium generally neglects the role of time-varying second moments, in spite of their importance in assessing risk-return tradeoffs. In fact, this importance is borne out in the data: time-varying expectations generate valuable new evidence regarding both unbiasedness in the forward rate and portfolio balance models. Moreover, the results suggest that previous tests which assume constant second moments involve serious misspecification errors. The results also highlight the unreliability of the portfolio balance effects of sterilized intervention, in spite of the quantitative importance of expected return differentials.

Abstract:

The financial intermediary is shown to result from a market imperfection related to the costly monitoring of the actions of consumers. In such an environment complete insurance is not obtainable and consumers respond by holding some of their wealth as precautionary balances in order to self-insure. Precautionary balances are those financial vehicles which permit one to invest and then liquidate with the smallest amount of loss because of the "sunk costs" associated with the transaction. An economy of N identical consumers is created and it is shown that a financial intermediary which collects the precautionary balances of the community can then implement risk sharing and liberate social resources for greater investment.

Abstract:

This paper explores the interaction between exchange rate alignment and external balance for Japan and the United States. The analysis highlights the influence of current account developments on the yen-dollar exchange rate, as well as the reverse, and the interaction between the capital account and the exchange rate. We first sketch the broad outlines of the factors driving medium-run swings in the yen-dollar exchange rate over the floating rate period. After a brief consideration of the implications of financial liberalization for the yen-dollar exchange rate, the paper takes a more detailed look at the secular developments underlying movements in the yen-dollar relationship, tracing the evolution over the past two-and-a-half decades of some of the more salient structural features of the American and Japanese economies. Developments in each economy related to productivity, the composition and regional pattern of trade, real wages, the terms of trade and the savings-investment balance provide insights into the longer-run trends of the Japanese current account and associated pressures for yen appreciation over time. Finally, we weigh the relative contributions of changes in the exchange value of the yen and other economic factors in fostering more balanced trade between Japan and its major trading partners, including the United States. Evidence from the Multi-Country Model indicates that a 35 percent appreciation of the yen against the dollar over time will reduce Japan's surplus with the United States by $20 billion.

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates that forecast accuracy is not necessarily improved when fixed coefficient models are sequentially reestimated, and used for prediction, after updating the database with the latest observation(s). This is at variance with the now popular method (see Meese and Rogoff (1983, 1985)) of sequentially reestimating fixed coefficient models for prediction as new data "rolls" in. It is argued that although "rolling" may minimize the variance of predictions for some classes of estimators, "rolling" does not necessarily yield accurate predictions (i.e., predictions that are close to actual data). Minimizing the mean squared prediction errors is a necessary condition for maximizing the probability that a given predictor is more accurate than other predictors. This minimization need not require, and may even exclude, the most recent data. A by-product of the demonstration is that for predictors based on the same sample size, a predictor with smaller variance need not be more accurate than another predictor with a larger variance.

Abstract:

Coordination of macroeconomic policy has been a major topic at recent summit meetings, and has been the subject of a number of theoretical studies. However, relatively little empirical research exists on policy coordination. This paper is an attempt to help fill this gap. The paper considers the quantitative importance of the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy under flexible exchange rates. We also evaluate the mechanisms by which the effects of macroeconomic policy are transmitted abroad. The nature of the equilibrium reached in the absence of coordination is also analyzed, and the empirical results are related to the theoretical literature. The analysis is based on simulations with the Multicountry Model (MCM) developed at the Federal Reserve Board.

Abstract:

This paper develops an alternative test of the neutrality of anticipated monetary policy. A multi-good equilibrium model along the lines of Barro and Hercowitz is used to derive a neutrality proposition for anticipated movements in the aggregate price level and to demonstrate econometrically its equivalence to the exogeneity of relative prices with respect to the aggregate price level. Multivariate causality tests provide a basis for testing these restrictions. The empirical results provide mixed evidence for the equilibrium models, while the variation in the findings across industries suggests a role for supply-side disturbances in explaining comovements in aggregate and relative prices.

Abstract:

It is frequently alleged that the persistent, high rates of unemployment in many European countries are due, at least in part, to various labor market rigidities. One of these rigidities is the high cost of firing workers, compared with the cost in the United States, or in Europe in the early 1960s.

This paper assesses the empirical importance of severance costs on labor demand. A partial equilibrium model of the firm's employment decision in the presence of significant severance costs is formulated and solved. The theoretical section of the paper identifies the following determinants of the impact of severance costs on labor demand: (1) the size of the required severance payments, (2) the variability and persistence of shocks to labor demand, (3) the expected rate of growth of labor demand, (4) the rate at which workers voluntarily leave the firm to retire or take other jobs, (5) the wage elasticity of labor demand, and (6) the firm's discount rate.

The analytical framework is then used to evaluate the impact of severance costs on the expected cost of hiring a worker, and hence on labor demand. These costs are evaluated for a plausible base case, and the sensitivity of the conclusions to alternative assumptions is investigated.

Abstract:

The following note presents a framework for analyzing financial management techniques and financial product innovation. The framework attempts to illustrate how characteristics of the economic system and its participants motivate financing needs and encourage innovations in financing techniques. New sets of financial contracts are the joint product of (1) changes in technology and in the international macro environment of asset prices; (2) the interplay of individual market participant's existing financial exposures; and (3) the presence of fruitful cross-market arbitrage opportunities based on differing national jurisdictions and structures. We use stylized examples to explore several different manifestations of this process and we offer general observations on how financial innovation may change the character of international money and credit markets. Finally, in thinking about official attitudes toward the process of innovation policies, it is necessary to form a view of the counterfactual world. How would the world economies have functioned without innovation?

Abstract:

Recently the role of the ECU has increased and there has been concern whether it is sustainable. The first part of this paper examines the composition of the ECU and investigates the impact of changes in this composition on the value of the ECU. The results show that when there is little exchange rate variability among the currencies that comprise the ECU or when the changes in composition are small the value of the ECU remains stable. The second part of this paper constructs an alternative, optimal basket of currencies for Germany and compares this basket to the ECU. The path of the optimal basket resembles the ECU path but is dramatically different from the DM/$.

Abstract:

Tests of rational expectations in foreign exchange markets have been inconclusive because of disagreement over the underlying asset pricing model. This paper uses a newly available set of data on foreign exchange forecasts to examine directly expectations formation in four foreign currency markets. Generally, results do not support the simple rational expectations hypothesis.

Abstract:

In a two-country world with perfect capital markets and no taxes, the existence of purchasing power parity is fully consistent with interest party and the equalization of real interest rates across countries. In such a world, changes in anticipated inflation in either country will not alter the world equilibrium real interest rate. If asset returns are taxed, the existence of taxes may drive a wedge between real after-tax interest rates, and changes in anticipated inflation may create arbitrage opportunities, thereby creating capital flows between countries and thereby altering equilibrium interest-rate differentials.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the paper demonstrates that the source of the wedge between real rates is not the existence of a tax on interest income (as argued in the literature on this subject) but instead the implicit assumption that capital gains are taxed as if they were interest income. Second, the paper attempts to clarify the conditions under which the basic proposition first argued by Howard and Johnson (1982) holds "exactly" (rather than as an approximation)--the proposition that in a world in which interest income is taxed, both purchasing power parity and equalization of real after-tax interest-rates (or constancy of the real after-tax interest-rate differential) cannot hold simultaneously. Furthermore, cases in which real returns are taxed are also considered.

Abstract:

This paper analyses the possibility of increased tensions in the European Monetary System (EMS) as a result of the recent dollar depreciation. The analysis employs a static, fairly stylized macroeconomic model in which the EMS is characterized as a means of achieving a cooperative outcome even though policymakers in member countries weigh output-inflation tradeoffs differently. Compared with the Nash (noncooperative) equilibrium, such cooperation is shown to have been welfare-improving for member countries before the depreciation of the dollar began. However, the inflationary consequences of the dollar depreciation in Europe give rise to the possibility that even if there is an optimal realignment afterwards, the members will not be able to achieve a better output-inflation tradeoff within the EMS than outside of it.

Abstract:

This paper articulates a model of the small, open economy in which the stock market, rather than the bond market, determines domestic aggregate demand. It resembles in many respects the widely adopted dynamic Mundell-Fleming approach, but can, in some circumstances, exhibit output and asset price dynamics that differ in economically illuminating ways from that more standard framework. In particular, if the stock market effects are important enough, then a monetary expansion can result in real exchange rate appreciation, rather than depreciation. Anticipated fiscal expansion can, if the favorable effects on future productivity lead to strong enough stock market effects, lead to an output expansion, rather than a contraction as in, for example, Burgstaller (1983), Blanchard (1984) and Branson, Fraga and Johnson (1985). Furthermore, if the delay between announcement and implementation of the fiscal expansion is long enough, an anticipated fiscal expansion can lead to exchange rate depreciation, rather than appreciation.

Abstract:

Interest in income and price elasticities for international trade has increased recently because of the debt crisis that many developing countries are experiencing. Estimates of income elasticities of import demand, however, range from a low of 1.3 to a high of 4.7. Such differences have important implications for debtor and creditor countries alike. Using quarterly data for the period 1973-1981, this paper estimates income and price elasticities for non-oil imports of five major industrial countries from non-OPEC developing countries. The empirical results suggest that the income elasticity is closer to 1 than to 4.

Abstract:

"Monte Carlo experimentation in econometrics helps 'solve' deterministic problems by simulating stochastic analogues in which the analytical unknowns are reformulated as parameters to be estimated." (Hendry (1980) With that in mind, Monte Carlo studies may be divided operationally into three phases: design, simulation, and post-simulation analysis. This paper provides a guide to the last of those three, post-simulation analysis, given the design and simulation of a Monte Carlo study, and uses Pesaran's (1974) study of statistics for testing non-nested hypotheses to illustrate the techniques described. A statistic is derived for testing for significant deviations between the asymptotic and (observed) finite sample properties. Further, that statistic provides the basis for analyzing discrepancies between the finite sample and asymptotic properties using response surfaces. The results for Pesaran's study indicate the value of asymptotic theory in interpreting finite sample properties and certain limitations for doing so. Finally, a method is proposed for adjusting the finite sample sizes of different test statistics so that comparisons of their power may be made. Extensions to other finite sample properties are indicated.

Abstract:

This paper presents a method for solving a system of first order linear differential equations with constant coefficients when the elements of the forcing vector are step functions. The analysis presented in the text has been programmed for use in the computer simulation of linear continuous time rational expectations models using any combination of anticipated and unanticipated, permanent or temporary shocks. The program entitled "JAB" is available from the author upon request.

Abstract:

Both the OECD and the IMF periodically estimate and publish measures of fiscal impulse to gauge the extent to which fiscal policy in the major industrial countries has become more or less expansive over time. This paper compares these measures analytically and numerically. The paper shows that the OECD and IMF measures of fiscal impulse differ in at least four fundamental ways: (1) the OECD includes fiscal drag under the presumption that it is part of the "structure" of fiscal policy, while the IMF excludes it from its adjusted measure of the budget balance; (2) the OECD and the IMF both adjust for cyclical factors but they do so differently; (3) the OECD estimates its marginal tax and expenditure rates from a structural model whereas the IMF assumes unit income-elasticity of its parameters and uses historical average tax and spending rates; and (4) each agency uses different estimates of potential output. The paper then numerically allocates differences in the published figures of the OECD and the IMF to these various sources. The paper assesses the usefulness of each measure.

Abstract:

We construct a two-period model of an open economy and use the model to analyze the welfare implications of fixed and floating exchange regimes. Consumers have perfect foresight and save by holding domestic and foreign bonds, which are chosen according to relative interest rates, deflated by the rate of devaluation of the domestic currency. The government produces a pure public good and finances its deficits by issuing money, domestic bonds, and by foreign borrowing. The government's bonds compete with private investment, which is entirely debt financed. Foreign exchange, i.e., foreign bonds, is made available via the current account, endogenous private borrowing, and exogenous public borrowing. The government, in turn, acts as a passive auctioneer, trading foreign currency at market prices, and the exchange rate is defined as the domestic price of foreign bonds.

The parameters of the model are estimated for Australia, and two counterfactual simulations have been carried out. In the first of these, a fixed exchange regime has been imposed upon 1983-84, when the exchange rate was actually allowed to float. Assuming that all exogenous parameters remain constant, the welfare implications of the two regimes are compared. The floating regime is found to be welfare superior for both categories of domestic consumers. Similar results are derived in a simulation in which the floating regime is imposed upon 1981-82, when a fixed exchange regime was actually in place. Our initial conclusion would be that, from the point of view of consumer welfare, floating exchange rates are superior to fixed rates in this Australian case.