Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Abstract:

We study the short-run macroeconomic effects of trade policies that are equivalent in a friction-less economy, namely a uniform increase in import tariffs and export subsidies (IX), an increase in value-added taxes accompanied by a payroll tax reduction (VP), and a border adjustment of corporate profit taxes (BAT). Using a dynamic New Keynesian open-economy framework, we summarize conditions for exact neutrality and equivalence of these policies. Neutrality requires the real exchange rate to appreciate enough to fully offset the effects of the policies on net exports. We argue that a combination of higher import tariffs and export subsidies is likely to trigger only a partial exchange rate offset and thus boosts net exports and output (with the output stimulus largely due to the subsidies). Under full pass-through of taxes, IX and BAT are equivalent but VP is not. We show that a temporary VP can increase intertemporal prices enough to depress aggregate demand and output, even when wages are sticky. These contractionary effects are especially pronounced under fixed exchange rates.
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Keywords: Trade Policy, Fiscal Policy, Exchange Rates, Fiscal Devaluation

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1242

Abstract:

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on bilateral cross-border bank flows using the BIS Locational Banking Statistics between 1995 and 2014. We find that monetary policy in the source countries is an important determinant of cross-border bank flows. In addition, we find evidence in favor of a cross-border bank portfolio channel. As relatively tighter monetary conditions in source countries erode the net worth and collateral values of domestic borrowers, banks reallocate their claims toward safer foreign counterparties. The cross-border reallocation of credit is more pronounced for banks in source countries with weaker financial sectors, which are likely to be more risk averse. Lastly, the reallocation is directed toward borrowers in safer countries, such as advanced economies or economies with an investment grade sovereign rating. By highlighting the effect of domestic monetary policy on foreign credit, this study enhances our understanding of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through global banks
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Keywords: Bank lending, cross-border bank flows, monetary policy, portfolio rebalancing

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1241

Abstract:

We provide novel evidence that technological news and uncertainty shocks, identified one at a time using VAR models as in the literature, are correlated; that is, they are not truly structural. We then proceed by proposing an identification scheme to disentangle the effects of news and financial uncertainty shocks. We find that by removing uncertainty effects from news shocks, the positive responses of economic activity to news shocks are strengthened in the short term; and that the negative responses of activity to financial uncertainty shocks are deepened in the medium term as `good uncertainty' effects on technology are purged.

Original paper: PDF | Accessible materials (.zip)

Keywords: forecasting error variance, structural VAR, news shocks, uncertainty shocks

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1240r1

Abstract:

Governments issue debt both domestically and abroad. This heterogeneity introduces the possibility for governments to operate selective defaults that discriminate across investors. Using a novel dataset on the legal jurisdiction of sovereign defaults that distinguishes between defaults under domestic law and default under foreign law, we show that selectiveness is the norm and that imports, credit, and output dynamics are different around different types of default. Domestic defaults are associated with contractions of credit and are more likely in countries with smaller credit markets. In turn, external defaults, are associated with a sharp contraction of imports and are more likely in countries with depressed import markets. Based on these regularities, we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that we calibrate to Argentina. We show that the model replicates well the behavior of the Argentinean economy and rationalizes these empirical findings.

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Keywords: Sovereign Default, Selective Defaults, Domestic Debt, External Debt, Credit, Imports.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1239

Abstract:

There are lingering concerns about the health of European banks and extensive market commentary about whether post-crisis regulatory reforms in Europe have adequately addressed these concerns. In June 2012, European policymakers released the broad outlines of a proposal for a "European banking union" to strengthen the banking sector and help assuage concerns of investors and depositors, however, uncertainty remains regarding how the new EU bank resolution regime, the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), will work in practice. This paper addresses whether the BRRD has fulfilled the requirements of the FSB Key Attributes for Resolution Regimes, which many take to be the gold standard bank resolution framework. We find that the BRRD diverges from the FSB Key Attributes or allows variation at the Member State level in multiple areas. The majority of these variations point to slight inconsistencies with the FSB recommendations. That said, some variations may have a larger impact than others.

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Keywords: FSB Key Attributes, BRRD, European Banks

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1238

Abstract:

This paper investigates how government spending multipliers depend on the distribution of taxes across households. We exploit historical variations in the financing of spending in the U.S. since 1913 to show that multipliers are positive only when nanced with more progressive taxes, and zero otherwise. We rationalize this finding within a heterogeneous-household model with indivisible labor supply. The model results in a lower labor responsiveness to tax changes for higher-income earners. In turn, spending financed with more progressive taxes induces a smaller crowding-out, and thus larger multipliers. Finally, we provide evidence in support of the model's cross-sectional implications.
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Keywords: Fiscal Stimulus, Government Spending, Transfers, Heterogeneous Agents

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1237

Abstract:

We characterize optimal monetary policy when agents learn about endogenous asset prices. Learning leads to inefficient asset price fluctuations and distortions in consumption and investment decisions. We find that the policy-relevant natural real interest rate increases with subjective asset price beliefs. Optimal monetary policy therefore raises interest rates when expected capital gains are high. When the asset is not in fixed supply, optimal policy also "leans against the wind". In a simple calibration of the model, a positive response to capital gains in simple interest rate rules is beneficial. Our results are robust to alternative belief specifications.

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Keywords: Optimal Monetary Policy, Asset Prices, Natural Real Interest Rate, Learning, Leaning Against The Wind

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1236r1

Abstract:

This paper looks at the evolution of U.S. stock prices from the time of the Presidential elections to the end of 2017. It concludes that a bit more than half of the increase in the aggregate U.S. stock prices from the presidential election to the end of 2017 can be attributed to higher actual and expected dividends. A general improvement in economic activity and a decrease in economic policy uncertainty around the world were the main factors behind the stock market increase. The prospect and the eventual passage of the corporate tax bill nevertheless played a role. And while part of the rise in stock returns came from a decrease in the equity risk premium, this decrease was relatively limited and returned the premium to the levels of the first half of the 2000s.
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Keywords: Dividends, earnings, equity returns, equity premium, Gordon formula, tax reform, U.S. presidential election

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1235

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the popular view that quantitative easing exerts greater international spillovers than conventional monetary policies. We employ a novel approach to compare the international spillovers of conventional and balance sheet policies undertaken by the Federal Reserve. In principle, conventional monetary policy affects bond yields and financial conditions by affecting the expected path of short rates, while balance-sheet policy is believed act through the term premium. To distinguish the effects of these two types of policies we use a term structure model to decompose longer-term bond yields into expected short-term interest rates and term premiums. We then examine the relative effects of changes in these two components of yields on changes in exchange rates and foreign bond yields. We find that the dollar is more sensitive to expected short-term interest rates than to term premia; moreover, the rise in the sensitivity of the dollar to monetary policy announcements since the GFC owes more to an increased sensitivity of the dollar to expected interest rates than to term premiums. We also find that changes in short rates and term premiums have similar effects on foreign yields. All told, our findings contradict the popular view that quantitative easing exerts greater international spillovers than conventional monetary policies.

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Keywords: Monetary policy, international spillovers, term premium

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1234

Abstract:

Exploiting a unique identification strategy based on inaccurate news analytics, we document a causal effect of news analytics on the market irrespective of the informational content of the news. We show that news analytics speed up the stock price and trading volume response to articles, but reduce liquidity. Inaccurate news analytics lead to small price distortions that are corrected quickly. The market impact of news analytics is greatest for press releases, which are timelier and easier to interpret algorithmically. Furthermore, we provide evidence that high frequency traders rely on the information from news analytics for directional trading on company-specific news.

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Keywords: Stock Price Reaction, News Analytics, High Frequency Trading, Press Releases

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1233

Abstract:

We investigate systematic changes in banks' projected credit losses between the 2014 and 2016 EBA stress tests, employing methodology from Philippon et al. (2017). We find that projected credit losses were smoothed across the tests through systematic model adjustments. Those banks whose losses would have increased the most from 2014 to 2016 due to changes in the supervisory scenarios--keeping the models constant and controlling for changes in the riskiness of underlying portfolios--saw the largest decrease in losses due to model changes. Model changes were more pronounced for banks that rely more on the Internal Ratings-Based approach, and they explain the cross-section of market responses to the release of the 2016 results. Stock prices and CDS spreads increased more for banks with larger reductions in projected credit losses due to model changes, as investors apparently did not interpret lower loan losses as reflecting mainly a decrease in credit risk but, instead, as a sign of lower capital requirements going forward.

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Keywords: Stress tests, financial institutions, regulation, credit risk models

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1232

Abstract:

We analyze how interest rates affect cross-border portfolio investments. Data on U.S. bond holdings by foreign investors from 31 countries for the period 2003 - 2016 and a large variety in movements in interest rates in these countries provide for a unique way to analyze shifts in investment behavior in response to interest rates. We find that low(er) interest rates, now prevailing in many advanced countries, lead to greater investment in general into the United States, with the effects generally driven by investment in (higher yielding) corporate bonds, rather than in Treasury bonds. In addition to affecting overall investments, lower interest rates at home are associated with a greater weight on corporate bonds, consistent with search-for-yield. The results are economically important and robust to controlling for a number of country-specific macroeconomic and financial conditions as well as to sample restrictions and choices of interest rate. Our findings have important policy implications in that they suggest that low interest rates can lead to shifts in the volume and composition of overseas investments.

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Keywords: Low interest rates, search-for-yield, portfolio choice, safe and risky assets, U.S. bonds

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1231

Abstract:

How do import tariffs and R&D subsidies help domestic firms compete globally? How do these policies affect aggregate growth and economic welfare? To answer these questions, we build a dynamic general equilibrium growth model where firm innovation endogenously determines the dynamics of technology, market leadership, and trade flows, in a world with two large open economies at different stages of development. Firms' R&D decisions are driven by (i) the defensive innovation motive, (ii) the expansionary innovation motive, and (iii) technology spillovers. The theoretical investigation illustrates that, statically, globalization (defined as reduced trade barriers) has ambiguous effects on welfare, while, dynamically, intensified globalization boosts domestic innovation through induced international competition. Accounting for transitional dynamics, we use our model for policy evaluation and compute optimal policies over different time horizons. The model suggests that the introduction of the Research and Experimentation Tax Credit in 1981 proves to be an effective policy response to foreign competition, generating substantial welfare gains in the long run. A counterfactual exercise shows that increasing tariffs as an alternative policy response improves domestic welfare only when the policymaker cares about the very short run, and only when introduced unilaterally. Tariffs generate large welfare losses in the medium and long run, or when there is retaliation by the foreign economy. Protectionist measures generate large dynamic losses by distorting the impact of openness on innovation incentives and productivity growth. Finally, our model predicts that a more globalized world entails less government intervention, thanks to innovation-stimulating effects of intensified international competition.

Keywords: Economic growth, short- and long-run gains from globalization, foreign technological catching-up, innovation policy, trade policy, competition.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1230

Abstract:

Recent empirical studies document that the level of resource misallocation in the service sector is significantly higher than in the manufacturing sector. We quantify the importance of this difference and study its sources. Conservative estimates for Portugal (2008) show that closing this gap, by reducing misallocation in the service sector to manufacturing levels, would boost aggregate gross output by around 12 percent and aggregate value added by around 31 percent. Differences in the effect and size of productivity shocks explain most of the gap in misallocation between manufacturing and services, while the remainder is explained by differences in firm productivity and age distribution. We interpret these results as stemming mainly from higher output-price rigidity, higher labor adjustment costs, and higher informality in the service sector.

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Keywords: Misallocation, productivity, firm-level data, structural transformation, Gelbach decomposition.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1229

Abstract:

Global financial institutions play an important role in channeling funds across countries and, therefore, transmitting monetary policy from one country to another. In this paper, we study whether such international transmission depends on financial institutions' business models. In particular, we use Dutch, Spanish, and U.S. confidential supervisory data to test whether the transmission operates differently through banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. We find marked heterogeneity in the transmission of monetary policy across the three types of institutions, across the three banking systems, and across banks within each banking system. While insurance companies and pension funds do not transmit home-country monetary policy internationally, banks do, with the direction and strength of the transmission determined by their business models and balance sheet characteristics.

Keywords: Monetary policy transmission, global financial institutions, bank lending channel, portfolio channel, business models.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1228

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the spillovers of higher U.S. interest rates on economic activity in a large panel of 50 advanced and emerging economies. We allow the response of GDP in each country to vary according to its exchange rate regime, trade openness, and a vulnerability index that includes current account, foreign reserves, inflation, and external debt. We document large heterogeneity in the response of advanced and emerging economies to U.S. interest rate surprises. In response to a U.S. monetary tightening, GDP in foreign economies drops about as much as it does in the United States, with a larger decline in emerging economies than in advanced economies. In advanced economies, trade openness with the United States and the exchange rate regime account for a large portion of the contraction in activity. In emerging economies, the responses do not depend on the exchange rate regime or trade openness, but are larger when vulnerability is high.
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Keywords: U.S. Monetary Policy; Foreign Spillovers; Local Projection; Macroeconomic Transmission; Panel Data.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1227

Abstract:

In this paper we estimate the magnitude of spillovers between bond markets in the U.S. and Germany following monetary policy communications by the FOMC and the ECB. The identification of policy-related co-movements following FOMC announcements, in particular, can be difficult because many foreign bond markets, including those in Germany, are closed at the time of the announcement. To address this issue we use intraday futures market data to estimate spillovers during a narrow and overlapping event window. We find that about half of the reaction in German domestic yields spills over to U.S. yields following ECB announcements, which is nearly identical to the spillover from U.S. yields to German Bund yields following FOMC announcements. This result contrasts with the conventional wisdom that FOMC announcements spill over to other countries but that there is not much effect in the other direction. We also find that spillover estimates are slightly higher in the post-crisis period, but that there is little difference in the spillover impact of conventional versus unconventional monetary policy. Our results based on futures prices differ noticeably from those using daily prices, which suggests that spillover estimates based on cash market data can be misleading.

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Keywords: Monetary policy, quantitative easing, interest rate differentials

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1226

Abstract:

Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 50 percent of world expenditure in 1970 to 80 percent in 2015. Such structural change restrained "openness"--the ratio of world trade to world GDP--over this period. We quantify this with a general equilibrium trade model featuring non-homothetic preferences and input-output linkages. Openness would have been 70 percent in 2015, 23 percentage points higher than the data, if expenditure patterns were unchanged from 1970. Structural change is critical for estimating the dynamics of trade barriers and welfare gains from trade. Ongoing structural change implies declining openness, even absent rising protectionism.

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Keywords: Globalization, Structural Change, International Trade

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1225

Abstract:

The risk-taking effects of low interest rates, now prevailing in many advanced countries, "search-for-yield," can be hard to analyze due to both a paucity of data and challenges in identification. Unique, security-level data on portfolio investment into the United States allow us to overcome both problems. Analyzing holdings of investors from 36 countries in close to 15,000 unique U.S. corporate bonds between 2003 and 2016, we show that declining home-country interest rates lead investors to shift their portfolios toward riskier U.S. corporate bonds, consistent with "search-for-yield". We estimate even stronger effects when home interest rates reach a low level, suggesting that risk-taking further accelerates.

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Keywords: low interest rates, risk-taking, search for yield, portfolio choice, corporate debt, United States

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1224

Abstract:

Using U.S. data from 1926 to 2015, I show that financial skewness--a measure comparing cross-sectional upside and downside risks of the distribution of stock market returns of financial firms--is a powerful predictor of business cycle fluctuations. I then show that shocks to financial skewness are important drivers of business cycles, identifying these shocks using both vector autoregressions and a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Financial skewness appears to reflect the exposure of financial firms to the economic performance of their borrowers.

Keywords: Cross-Sectional Skewness, Business Cycle Fluctuations, Financial Channel

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1223

Abstract:

We present a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment and is associated with higher disaster probability and larger downside risks. The adverse consequences of the GPR index are driven by both the threat and the realization of adverse geopolitical events. We complement our aggregate measures with industry- and firm-level indicators of geopolitical risk. Investment drops more in industries that are exposed to aggregate geopolitical risk. Higher firm-level geopolitical risk is associated with lower firm-level investment.

Keywords: Geopolitical Risk; War; Terrorism; Business Cycles; Disaster Risk; Firm-level investment; Textual Analysis; Earnings Calls; Quantile Regressions.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1222r1

Abstract:

We use the Bayesian method introduced by Gallant and McCulloch (2009) to estimate consumption-based asset pricing models featuring smooth ambiguity preferences. We rely on semi-nonparametric estimation of a flexible auxiliary model in our structural estimation. Based on the market and aggregate consumption data, our estimation provides statistical support for asset pricing models with smooth ambiguity. Statistical model comparison shows that models with ambiguity, learning and time-varying volatility are preferred to the long-run risk model. We analyze asset pricing implications of the estimated models.

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Keywords: Ambiguity, Bayesian estimation, equity premium, Markov-switching, long-run risk

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1221

Abstract:

Using supplier-level trade data, we estimate the effect on consumer welfare from changes in U.S. imports both in the aggregate and for different household income groups from 1998 to 2014. To do this, we use consumer preferences which feature non-homotheticity both within sectors and across sectors. After structurally estimating the parameters of the model, using the universe of U.S. goods imports, we construct import price indexes in which a variety is defined as a foreign establishment producing an HS10 product that is exported to the United States. We find that lower income households experienced the most import price inflation, while higher income households experienced the least import price inflation during our time period. Thus, we do not find evidence that the consumption channel has mitigated the distributional effects of trade that have occurred through the nominal income channel in the United States over the past two decades.

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Keywords: import price index, non-homotheticity, real income inequality, product variety, markups

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1220