Photo of Manuel P. Gonzalez-Astudillo

Manuel P. Gonzalez-Astudillo

Education

  • Ph.D., Economics, Indiana University, 2012
  • M.Sc., Economics, Universidad de Chile, 2005
Current Research Topics
  • Estimation of the natural rate of interest
  • Estimation of sovereign default probabilities
  • Principal Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2012 - present
  • Hawkish or Dovish Fed? Estimating a Time-Varying Reaction Function of the Federal Open Market Committee's Median Participant
    Manuel González-Astudillo and Rakeen Tanvir
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2023)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2023.070
  • When are trend–cycle decompositions of GDP reliable?
    Manuel González-Astudillo and John M. Roberts
    Empirical Economics (2022)
    https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-02105-4
  • Measuring uncertainty: A streamlined application for the Ecuadorian economy
    Guillermo Avellán, Manuel González-Astudillo, and Juan José Salcedo Cruz
    Empirical Economics (2022)
    https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-021-02069-5
  • Good Policy or Good Luck? Analyzing the Effects of Fiscal Policy and Oil Revenue Shocks in Ecuador
    Freddy García-Albán, Manuel González-Astudillo, and Cristhian Vera-Avellán
    Energy Economics (2021)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105321
  • Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy
    Manuel González-Astudillo and Jean-Philippe Laforte
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2020)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.085
  • An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area: Exploiting Country-Level and Cross-Sectional Data Heterogeneity
    Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo
    European Economic Review (2019)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.103301
    See also » FRB Working Paper (2018)
  • Estimating the U.S. Output Gap with State-Level Data
    Manuel González-Astudillo
    Journal of Applied Econometrics (2019)
    https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2705
  • A New Procedure for Generating the Stochastic Simulations in FRB/US
    Manuel González-Astudillo and Diego Vilán
    FEDS Notes (2019)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2314
  • A Nowcasting Model for Ecuador: Implementing a Time-Varying Mean Output Growth
    Manuel González-Astudillo and Daniel Baquero
    Economic Modelling (2019)
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.01.010
  • A Nowcasting Model for the Growth Rate of Real GDP of Ecuador: Implementing a Time-Varying Intercept
    Manuel González-Astudillo and Daniel Baquero
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2018)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2018.044
  • GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data
    Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2017)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.051
  • When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted?
    Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo and John M. Roberts
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2016)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.099
  • Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence
    Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2014)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2014.97
  • Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients
    Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2013)
    https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2013.58
  • seminar

    November 2020

    Universidad de Cuenca

    Good Luck or Good Policy? An Analysis of the Effects of Oil Revenue and Fiscal Policy Shocks: The Case of Ecuador

  • seminar

    November 2020

    Banco de Mexico

    Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy

  • seminar

    November 2020

    European Central Bank

    Estimates of r* Consistent with a Supply-Side Structure and a Monetary Policy Rule for the U.S. Economy

  • conference

    July 2020

    IAAE 2020 Annual Conference

    When Are Trend-Cycle Decompositions of GDP Reliable?

  • seminar

    December 2019

    ESPOL

    A Nowcasting model for Ecuador: Implementing a time-varying mean output growth

  • seminar

    April 2019

    West Virginia University

    GDP trend-cycle decompositions using state-level data

  • conference

    June 2019

    XXII Applied Economics Meeting

    An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area: Exploiting Country-level and Cross-sectional Data Heterogeneity

  • conference

    June 2019

    IAAE 2019 Annual Conference

    An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area: Exploiting Country-level and Cross-sectional Data Heterogeneity

  • conference

    June 2018

    2018 Computational and Financial Econometrics

    An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area: Exploiting Country-level and Cross-sectional Data Heterogeneity

  • conference

    June 2018

    International Economics Congress

    GDP trend-cycle decompositions using state-level data

  • seminar

    April 2018

    Lehigh University

    GDP trend-cycle decompositions using state-level data

  • conference

    August 2018

    EEA-ESEM Congress

    An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area: Exploiting Country-level and Cross-sectional Data Heterogeneity

  • conference

    September 2018

    2018 NBER-NSF Times Series Conference

    GDP trend-cycle decompositions using state-level data

  • conference

    October 2018

    2018 LACEA LAMES

    An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area: Exploiting Country-level and Cross-sectional Data Heterogeneity

  • conference

    December 2017

    Simposio de la Asociacion Espanola de Economia

    GDP trend-cycle decompositions using state-level data

  • conference

    June 2017

    2017 Computational and Financial Econometrics

    GDP trend-cycle decompositions using state-level data

  • conference

    May 2017

    NBER-NSF SBIES Conference

    GDP trend-cycle decompositions using state-level data

  • conference

    April 2017

    St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Spring Econometrics Workshop

    GDP trend-cycle decompositions using state-level data

  • conference

    December 2016

    CFE-CMStatistics Conference 2016

    GDP trend-cycle decompositions using state-level data

  • conference

    November 2016

    2016 LACEA

    Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence

  • conference

    September 2016

    System Committee on Regional Analysis

    GDP trend-cycle decompositions using state-level data

  • conference

    December 2015

    2015 European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society

    GDP trend-cycle decompositions: what can we learn from the Great Recession using state-level data

  • conference

    December 2015

    2015 Computational and Financial Econometrics

    Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence

  • conference

    October 2015

    2015 LACEA

    When can trend-cycle decompositions be trusted

  • conference

    June 2015

    IAAE 2015 Annual Conference

    When can trend-cycle decompositions be trusted

  • conference

    June 2014

    IAAE 2014 Annual Conference

    Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence

  • conference

    June 2014

    20th International Conference Computing in Economics and Finance

    Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence

  • conference

    May 2014

    2014 Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings

    Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence

  • conference

    October 2013

    2013 LACEA LAMES

    Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients

  • conference

    June 2013

    2013 North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society

    Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients

  • conference

    June 2013

    XVI Applied Economics Meetings

    Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients

  • conference

    May 2013

    2013 Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings

    Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients

Referee
  • European Economic Review
  • Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
  • Journal of Applied Econometrics
  • Review of Economics and Statistics
  • Macroeconomic Dynamics
  • Economic Letters
  • Empirical Economics
  • Journal of Business Cycle Research
  • Journal of Applied Economics
  • Economic Modelling
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Last Update: August 2, 2024