Accessible Version

Accumulated Savings During the Pandemic: An International Comparison with Historical Perspective, Accessible Data

Figure 1: Evolution of savings rates during the COVID-19 pandemic

Figure 1a: Savings rate across Advanced Economies
Percent

Quarter Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Spain UK US
2017:Q1 0.148 0.059 0.134 0.109 0.096 0.030 0.058 0.040 0.107
2017:Q2 0.143 0.062 0.136 0.106 0.094 0.023 0.063 0.065 0.112
2017:Q3 0.141 0.073 0.135 0.105 0.100 0.035 0.053 0.059 0.111
2017:Q4 0.145 0.072 0.139 0.106 0.100 0.027 0.058 0.049 0.105
2018:Q1 0.144 0.061 0.133 0.116 0.095 0.024 0.048 0.056 0.108
2018:Q2 0.142 0.051 0.138 0.114 0.098 0.028 0.050 0.051 0.109
2018:Q3 0.144 0.049 0.138 0.113 0.093 0.027 0.057 0.053 0.112
2018:Q4 0.151 0.059 0.147 0.109 0.095 0.040 0.067 0.049 0.118
2019:Q1 0.154 0.058 0.145 0.112 0.097 0.038 0.080 0.051 0.129
2019:Q2 0.146 0.068 0.141 0.108 0.100 0.046 0.108 0.058 0.123
2019:Q3 0.166 0.071 0.145 0.106 0.092 0.035 0.061 0.054 0.123
2019:Q4 0.158 0.074 0.150 0.104 0.090 0.068 0.077 0.058 0.123
2020:Q1 0.180 0.100 0.181 0.135 0.155 0.068 0.129 0.066 0.143
2020:Q2 0.308 0.293 0.258 0.207 0.210 0.227 0.251 0.273 0.296
2020:Q3 0.279 0.167 0.160 0.150 0.146 0.126 0.175 0.151 0.198
2020:Q4 0.224 0.151 0.215 0.166 0.167 0.087 0.157 0.163 0.173
2021:Q1 0.221 0.176 0.201 0.193 0.181 0.103 0.157 0.209 0.235
2021:Q2 0.203 0.179 0.195 0.171 0.155 0.086 0.129 0.121 0.145
2021:Q3 0.272 0.136 0.161 0.120 0.132 0.097 0.142 0.099 0.129
2021:Q4 0.217 0.112 0.166 0.122 0.118 0.076 0.123 0.091 0.112
2022:Q1 0.203 0.127 0.163 0.117 0.123 0.098 0.101 0.086 0.084
2022:Q2 0.177 0.100 0.154 0.112 0.107 0.050 0.084 0.075 0.074
2022:Q3 0.167 0.099 0.156 0.113 0.088 0.049 0.057 0.092 0.075
2022:Q4 0.146 0.109 0.171 0.114 0.070 0.043   0.096 0.082
2023:Q1                 0.089

Source: Haver analytics.

Figure 1b: Savings rate across Emerging Economies
Percent

Quarter China Israel Singapore South Korea
2017:Q1 0.2875644 0.309763125 0.289734378  
2017:Q2 0.2975802 0.309763125 0.282691594  
2017:Q3 0.2988545 0.309763125 0.278605126  
2017:Q4 0.2999762 0.309763125 0.280676625  
2018:Q1 0.2920559 0.328633722 0.287643215  
2018:Q2 0.2887371 0.328633722 0.265949938  
2018:Q3 0.3059735 0.328633722 0.277729045  
2018:Q4 0.3056001 0.328633722 0.294736456  
2019:Q1 0.2956193 0.337421489 0.285048605 0.398209223
2019:Q2 0.2963593 0.337421489 0.278517955 0.398209223
2019:Q3 0.3018493 0.337421489 0.289989391 0.398209223
2019:Q4 0.3070162 0.337421489 0.302458362 0.398209223
2020:Q1 0.3537496 0.420631797 0.31559998 0.436198633
2020:Q2 0.3484795 0.420631797 0.523808171 0.436198633
2020:Q3 0.3403815 0.420631797 0.38331195 0.436198633
2020:Q4 0.3334049 0.420631797 0.384335689 0.436198633
2021:Q1 0.3289162 0.376138002 0.356278635 0.429214315
2021:Q2 0.3073528 0.376138002 0.389196858 0.429214315
2021:Q3 0.3086034 0.376138002 0.380645533 0.429214315
2021:Q4 0.3121838 0.376138002 0.386126572 0.429214315
2022:Q1 0.3265651 0.351761151 0.365825253 0.43976184
2022:Q2 0.3403366 0.351761151 0.315100275 0.43976184
2022:Q3 0.3160684 0.351761151 0.329870808 0.43976184
2022:Q4 0.3538374 0.351761151 0.359507428 0.43976184
2023:Q1 0.3272899      

Note: Data are annual for Israel and South Korea

Source: Haver analytics.

Return to text

Figure 2: Evolution of the accumulated stock of excess savings during the pandemic

Figure 2a: Stock of excess savings across Advanced Economies
Percent of GDP

Quarter Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Spain UK US
2019:Q1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2019:Q2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2019:Q3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2019:Q4 0.000 0.000 0.158 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2020:Q1 0.000 0.000 0.780 0.000 0.670 0.000 0.000 -0.221 0.000
2020:Q2 1.963 1.949 2.399 1.099 2.055 0.000 1.673 1.580 2.564
2020:Q3 3.552 2.780 2.425 1.557 2.311 0.671 2.414 2.289 3.742
2020:Q4 4.418 3.554 3.368 2.196 3.117 1.087 3.140 3.243 4.695
2021:Q1 5.181 4.445 4.114 3.119 4.008 1.633 3.901 4.601 6.412
2021:Q2 5.793 5.421 4.754 3.775 4.528 2.032 4.318 4.951 6.737
2021:Q3 7.219 5.978 4.855 3.839 4.745 2.547 4.884 5.104 6.823
2021:Q4 7.808 6.201 5.106 3.974 4.863 2.738 5.182 5.137 6.454
2022:Q1 8.033 6.461 5.106 3.943 4.769 3.174 5.442 5.046 5.588
2022:Q2 7.183 5.668 4.319 3.658 4.270 1.710 5.093 3.949 4.102
2022:Q3 6.312 5.068 3.938 3.462 4.082 1.173 4.689 3.216 2.219
2022:Q4 5.130 4.488 3.496 3.308 2.993 0.889   2.879 0.462
2023:Q1                 -1.941

Note: Stock begins accumulating from 0 at t=-1, where t=0 is the fist period of low growth due to COVID-19. Excess savings are calculated as deviation from the predicted savings rate using a Hamilton trend.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

Figure 2b: Stock of excess savings across Emerging Economies
Percent of GDP

Quarter China South Korea Singapore Israel
2019:Q1   0   0
2019:Q2   0   0
2019:Q3   0   0
2019:Q4 0 0 0 0
2020:Q1 1.893891263 2.149656318 0.838134578 5.970028726
2020:Q2 3.670557216 2.149656318 4.687294217 5.970028726
2020:Q3 4.976294465 2.149656318 6.483557131 5.970028726
2020:Q4 5.86068638 2.149656318 8.25454959 5.970028726
2021:Q1 6.711992602 3.877957992 9.339369706 7.278800996
2021:Q2 6.42854954 3.877957992 10.93842156 7.278800996
2021:Q3 6.127194029 3.877957992 12.5090248 7.278800996
2021:Q4 6.071549187 3.877957992 14.03836116 7.278800996
2022:Q1 6.289208409 6.194205181 15.02884287 5.535494228
2022:Q2 6.354831629 6.194205181 14.22822057 5.535494228
2022:Q3 5.566242033 6.194205181 14.07032391 5.535494228
2022:Q4 5.611814011 6.194205181 14.14888535 5.535494228
2023:Q1 4.719426072      

Note: Data is annual for Israel and South Korea. Stock begins accumulating from 0 at t=-1, where t=0 is the fist period of low growth due to COVID-19. Excess savings are calculated as deviation from the predicted savings rate using a Hamilton trend, except for South Korea where it is calculated as deviation from the 2019 rate due to data availability.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

Return to text

Figure 3: Historical comparison of excess savings evolutions

Figure 3a: Stock of U.S. excess savings
Percent of GDP

Quarters since start of episode 1980 recession Global Financial Crisis COVID-19
-1 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 0.312 0.205 2.564
1 0.599 0.424 3.742
2 0.812 0.804 4.695
3 1.031 0.889 6.412
4 1.452 1.031 6.737
5 1.983 1.214 6.823
6 2.492 1.494 6.454
7 2.973 1.745 5.588
8 3.409 1.918 4.102
9 3.607 2.069 2.219
10 3.698 2.156 0.462
11 3.549 2.166 -1.941
12 3.336 2.216  
13 3.208 2.407  
14 3.223 2.776  
15 3.220 2.989  
16 3.296 3.522  
17 3.348 3.292  
18 3.080 3.199  
19 3.041 3.101  

Note: Data are quarterly.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

Figure 3b: Stock of excess savings across AFEs
Percent of GDP

Quarters since start of episode COVID-19 Non-COVID-19
Average across AFEs Standard deviation across AFEs Average across AFEs Standard deviation across AFEs
-1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 0.995 0.820 0.169 0.242
1 1.976 0.917 0.424 0.352
2 2.743 0.900 0.604 0.529
3 3.433 1.036 0.848 0.660
4 4.229 1.058 1.108 0.747
5 4.781 1.362 1.398 0.851
6 5.118 1.402 1.580 1.052
7 5.055 1.832 1.796 1.276
8 4.712 1.735 1.927 1.502
9 4.218 1.597 2.044 1.610
10 4.091 0.730 2.147 1.841
11     2.375 1.983
12     2.384 2.185
13     2.263 2.284
14     2.195 2.364
15     2.141 2.489
16     2.050 2.456
17     1.940 2.678
18     1.813 2.874
19     1.696 3.056

Note: Data are quarterly.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

Figure 3c: Stock of excess savings across EMEs
Percent of GDP

Years since start of episode COVID-19 Non-COVID-19
Average across EMEs Standard deviation across EMEs Average across EMEs Standard deviation across EMEs
-1 0 0.000 0 0.00000
0 3.580140054 3.132 -0.357203911 1.52384
1 5.641091101 4.841 0.586637579 2.62268
2 6.264834747 4.386 0.901808285 2.89729
3     0.374016649 3.65038
4     0.084327859 4.81074
5     -1.542614924 4.67001

Note: Data are annual. For China, Israel, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, t=0 at 2020. For Thailand, t=0 in 2019.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

Return to text

Figure 4: Forecasted stock of excess savings across Advanced Economies

Percent of GDP

Quarter Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Spain UK AFE aggregate
2019:Q3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2019:Q4 0.000 0.000 0.158 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.053
2020:Q1 0.000 0.000 0.780 0.000 0.670 0.000 0.000 -0.221 0.176
2020:Q2 1.963 1.949 2.399 1.099 2.055 0.000 1.673 1.580 1.590
2020:Q3 3.552 2.780 2.425 1.557 2.311 0.671 2.414 2.289 2.250
2020:Q4 4.418 3.554 3.368 2.196 3.117 1.087 3.140 3.243 3.016
2021:Q1 5.181 4.445 4.114 3.119 4.008 1.633 3.901 4.601 3.875
2021:Q2 5.793 5.421 4.754 3.775 4.528 2.032 4.318 4.951 4.446
2021:Q3 7.219 5.978 4.855 3.839 4.745 2.547 4.884 5.104 4.897
2021:Q4 7.808 6.201 5.106 3.974 4.863 2.738 5.182 5.137 5.126
2022:Q1 8.033 6.461 5.106 3.943 4.769 3.174 5.442 5.046 5.247
2022:Q2 7.183 5.668 4.319 3.658 4.270 1.710 5.093 3.949 4.481
2022:Q3 6.312 5.068 3.938 3.462 4.082 1.173 4.689 3.216 3.993
2022:Q4 5.130 4.488 3.496 3.308 2.993 0.889 4.316 2.879 3.437
2023:Q1 3.962 3.729 3.105 2.991 2.099 0.104 3.775 2.292 2.757
2023:Q2 2.489 2.763 2.615 2.564 1.013 -0.839 3.066 1.563 1.904
2023:Q3 0.711 1.591 2.026 2.027 -0.267 -1.942 2.191 0.690 0.878
2023:Q4 -1.372 0.211 1.337 1.380 -1.739 -3.204   -0.326 -0.530

Note: Forecasts begin in 2023:1 except for Spain and the AFE aggregate, for which the forecast begins in 2022:4. Forecasts are based on an AR(1) model with a linear time trend.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

Return to text

Figure 5a: Excess Savings during COVID-19 constructed using an alternative method based on linear trend

Figure 5a 1:Stock of excess savings across Advanced Economies
Percent of GDP

Quarter Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Spain UK US
2019:Q1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2019:Q2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2019:Q3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2019:Q4 0.000 0.000 0.044 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2020:Q1 0.000 0.000 0.570 0.000 1.051 0.000 0.000 0.174 0.000
2020:Q2 2.549 4.183 2.557 1.667 3.334 0.000 2.798 4.290 3.845
2020:Q3 4.387 5.209 2.382 2.302 3.855 0.768 3.647 5.456 4.863
2020:Q4 5.074 6.100 3.398 3.261 5.147 0.850 4.461 7.207 5.495
2021:Q1 5.627 7.286 4.130 4.695 6.643 1.100 5.208 9.894 7.454
2021:Q2 5.902 8.599 4.705 5.722 7.526 1.017 5.331 10.533 7.252
2021:Q3 7.426 9.055 4.620 5.931 7.991 1.012 5.435 10.946 6.770
2021:Q4 7.738 8.994 4.702 6.282 8.390 0.620 5.135 11.200 5.855
2022:Q1 7.692 9.108 4.715 6.512 8.821 0.468 4.651 11.389 4.530
2022:Q2 7.241 8.743 4.535 6.768 8.909 -0.451 3.693 11.423 2.983
2022:Q3 6.813 8.731 4.361 7.059 8.886 -1.476 2.354 11.813 1.441
2022:Q4 5.988 8.816 4.409 7.324 8.317 -2.635   12.202 0.004
2023:Q1                 -1.344

Note: Stock begins accumulating from 0 at t=-1, where t=0 is the first period of low growth due to COVID-19. Excess savings are calculated as deviation from the predicted savings rate using a linear trend.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

Figure 5a 2: Stock of excess savings across Emerging Economies
Percent of GDP

Quarter China Israel South Korea Singapore
2019:Q1   0 0  
2019:Q2   0 0  
2019:Q3   0 0  
2019:Q4 0 0 0 0
2020:Q1 2.193222285 5.603198872 4.063696375 0.345192582
2020:Q2 4.097920025 5.603198872 4.063696375 3.561530816
2020:Q3 5.587363709 5.603198872 4.063696375 4.782196903
2020:Q4 6.711807757 5.603198872 4.063696375 6.016829298
2021:Q1 7.550808257 7.366553327 7.879928494 6.749074868
2021:Q2 7.408471013 7.366553327 7.879928494 7.887390881
2021:Q3 7.269692414 7.366553327 7.879928494 8.928659444
2021:Q4 7.235051561 7.366553327 7.879928494 10.05496928
2022:Q1 7.769188232 6.995017288   10.83563633
2022:Q2 8.845751439 6.995017288   11.05656182
2022:Q3 8.827575488 6.995017288   11.44888291
2022:Q4 10.38463873 6.995017288   12.19925878
2023:Q1        

Note: Data is annual for Israel and South Korea. Stock begins accumulating from 0 at t=-1, where t=0 is the first period of low growth due to COVID-19. Excess savings are calculated as deviation from the predicted savings rate using a linear trend.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

Return to text

Figure 5b: Excess Savings during COVID-19 constructed using an alternative method based on linear trend

Figure 5b 1: Stock of U.S. excess savings
Percent of GDP

Quarters since start of episode 1980 recession COVID-19 Global Financial Crisis
-1 0.000 0.000 0.000
0 0.289 3.845 0.299
1 0.568 4.863 0.585
2 0.748 5.495 1.027
3 0.965 7.454 1.115
4 1.414 7.252 1.231
5 2.010 6.770 1.367
6 2.548 5.855 1.607
7 3.081 4.530 1.823
8 3.608 2.983 1.980
9 3.907 1.441 2.240
10 4.160 0.004 2.393
11 4.160 -1.344 2.571
12 4.116   2.729
13 4.187   3.052
14 4.444   3.491
15 4.757   3.773
16 5.189   4.449
17 5.561   4.298
18 5.578   4.273
19 5.784   4.205

Note: Data are quarterly.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

Figure 5b 2: Stock of excess savings across AFEs
Percent of GDP

Quarters since start of episode COVID-19 Non-COVID-19
Average across AFEs Standard deviation across AFEs Average across AFEs Standard deviation across AFEs
-1 0 0.000 0 0.000
0 1.654231 1.436 0.1522941 0.331
1 3.073534 1.689 0.4176937 0.584
2 3.982861 1.646 0.6503966 0.996
3 4.821052 2.175 0.9226559 1.369
4 5.812654 2.784 1.197494 1.734
5 6.332031 3.074 1.487681 2.048
6 6.532361 3.190 1.68306 2.487
7 6.465193 3.569 1.873697 2.823
8 6.235244 3.948 1.996993 3.112
9 5.921269 4.417 2.134084 3.574
10 7.893675 2.547 2.227962 4.045
11     2.45733 4.483
12     2.470364 5.009
13     2.33207 5.514
14     2.195424 6.074
15     2.072315 6.621
16     1.925691 7.081
17     1.725064 7.665
18     1.524924 8.211
19     1.327053 8.783

Note: Data are quarterly.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

Figure 5b 3:Stock of excess savings across EMEs
Percent of GDP

Years since start of episode COVID-19 Non-COVID-19
Average across EMEs Standard deviation across EMEs Average across EMEs Standard deviation across EMEs
-1 0 0.000 0 0.000
0 3.662874703 2.710 0.574751626 2.024
1 5.692419193 4.271 2.522761112 5.586
2 6.422395349 6.453 4.478673339 9.455
3     6.703708178 14.159
4     8.773829538 19.180
5     12.6350065 25.914

Note: Data are annual. For China, Israel, South Korea, and Taiwan, t=0 in 2020. For Thailand, t=0 in 2019.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

Return to text

Last Update: June 23, 2023