Accessible Version

An update on Excess Savings in Selected Advanced Economies, Accessible Data

Figure 1: Stock of Excess Savings Across Countries

Percent of nominal GDP

  Linear Trend Hamilton Trend
Date Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Spain UK US Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Spain UK US
2019 Q4 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2020 Q1 0.516 0.685 0.636 0.348 1.095 0.302 0.831 0.539 0.359 0.609 0.476 0.793 0.391 1.043 0.530 0.716 -0.019 0.633
2020 Q2 3.428 5.398 2.731 1.892 3.415 3.378 4.295 5.156 4.208 3.637 5.098 3.064 1.997 3.245 3.945 4.009 3.803 4.817
2020 Q3 5.611 6.744 2.543 2.331 3.939 4.331 5.569 6.726 5.392 5.904 6.509 2.985 2.507 3.715 5.152 5.160 4.836 6.188
2020 Q4 6.626 8.074 3.658 3.058 5.200 4.748 6.999 9.043 6.227 6.947 7.780 4.168 3.364 4.884 5.720 6.347 6.520 7.175
2021 Q1 7.552 9.736 4.509 4.133 6.745 5.502 8.338 12.338 8.629 7.852 9.305 5.075 4.548 6.327 6.649 7.388 9.093 9.620
2021 Q2 8.220 11.630 5.265 4.855 7.757 5.942 9.247 13.238 8.867 8.518 10.914 5.916 5.412 7.226 7.178 7.922 9.351 9.927
2021 Q3 10.316 12.677 5.337 4.765 8.326 6.539 10.198 14.009 8.801 10.505 11.629 6.057 5.468 7.731 8.034 8.734 9.388 10.000
2021 Q4 11.105 13.192 5.713 4.769 8.771 6.723 10.533 14.544 8.224 11.163 11.754 6.490 5.646 8.094 8.216 9.012 9.159 9.589
2022 Q1 11.496 14.035 6.034 4.616 9.227 7.311 10.719 15.236 7.401 11.295 11.977 6.596 5.433 7.880 8.740 8.945 8.906 8.798
2022 Q2 11.458 14.291 6.121 4.459 9.346 7.118 10.519 15.692 6.393 10.208 9.903 5.812 4.674 6.784 6.969 7.828 6.543 6.478
2022 Q3 11.743 15.154 6.195 4.302 9.315 7.002 9.945 16.639 5.455 9.121 8.397 5.508 4.324 5.971 5.750 6.565 5.143 4.359
2022 Q4 11.506 16.238 6.595 4.092 8.682 6.595 10.116 17.573 4.524 7.714 7.243 5.108 3.899 4.378 4.919 6.528 4.310 2.658
2023 Q1 11.182 16.795 6.833 3.843 8.483 6.008 10.602 18.403 3.829 6.336 6.388 4.917 3.389 2.813 4.586 7.166 3.150 0.783
2023 Q2 11.209 17.577 7.051 3.755 8.355 5.436 11.297 19.390 3.215 5.400 5.294 4.537 3.082 1.638 4.026 7.782 2.743 -0.434
2023 Q3                 2.329                 -1.402

Note: Excess Savings are defined as savings accumulated when the household savings rate is above trend. Accumulation starts in the first quarter of 2020.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.

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Figure 2: U.S. Disposable personal income and personal savings

Trillions USD, annualized

Date Disposable personal income Personal savings
January 2018 15064.6 854.7
Februrary 2018 15132 885.2
March 2018 15202.6 900.8
April 2018 15271.7 919.9
May 2018 15349.7 927.3
June 2018 15425.7 972.6
July 2018 15508.8 1004.3
August 2018 15574.8 1027.5
September 2018 15605.6 1053.7
October 2018 15670.2 1053.7
November 2018 15717.7 1021.3
December 2018 15925 1338.9
January 2019 15922 1303.5
Februrary 2019 15998.5 1352.9
March 2019 16044.3 1273
April 2019 16047.2 1229.1
May 2019 16050.8 1165.1
June 2019 16085.2 1141.8
July 2019 16126.7 1099.6
August 2019 16226.6 1143.5
September 2019 16279.6 1167.8
October 2019 16339.8 1195
November 2019 16407.8 1168
December 2019 16355.2 1051.4
January 2020 16557.6 1191.4
Februrary 2020 16640.3 1281.1
March 2020 16358.9 2040.6
April 2020 18700.6 5976.4
May 2020 17766.1 4036.2
June 2020 17746.5 3258.4
July 2020 17970.3 3221.3
August 2020 17327.2 2433.3
September 2020 17443.1 2308.6
October 2020 17407.1 2232.3
November 2020 17214.9 2078.3
December 2020 17337.9 2085
January 2021 19213.9 3699.8
Februrary 2021 17681.8 2256.4
March 2021 21858.1 5712.9
April 2021 18637.1 2285.3
May 2021 18193.5 1800.3
June 2021 18195.8 1580.3
July 2021 18392.7 1730.8
August 2021 18421.5 1604.8
September 2021 18231.3 1320.8
October 2021 18331 1202.4
November 2021 18392 1137.4
December 2021 18424.3 1115.2
January 2022 18140.4 741
Februrary 2022 18261.6 749.1
March 2022 18341.2 621.1
April 2022 18413.5 576.9
May 2022 18496.7 577.9
June 2022 18595.6 502.4
July 2022 18768.2 648.4
August 2022 18890.3 613.2
September 2022 18986.6 576.2
October 2022 19118 579.4
November 2022 19167.8 636
December 2022 19249.4 651.9
January 2023 19758.1 871.1
Februrary 2023 19885 926
March 2023 19997.5 1047.5
April 2023 20106.6 1050.4
May 2023 20198.8 1073.4
June 2023 20224.8 996.5
July 2023 20219.3 836.3
August 2023 20271.1 806.7
September 2023 20327.3 687.7

Note: The chart presents the evolution of household disposable income and personal savings in the U.S. using monthly data. Values are annualized trillions of dollars for ease of comparison with other macroeconomic aggregates.

Source: Haver Analytics.

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Figure 3: Implied Savings Rate

Ratio of savings to disposable personal income

Date Implied trend savings rate
January 2019 0.068
Februrary 2019 0.069
March 2019 0.069
April 2019 0.070
May 2019 0.071
June 2019 0.072
July 2019 0.072
August 2019 0.072
September 2019 0.073
October 2019 0.073
November 2019 0.074
December 2019 0.075
January 2020 0.075
Februrary 2020 0.075
March 2020 0.077
April 2020 0.068
May 2020 0.072
June 2020 0.073
July 2020 0.073
August 2020 0.076
September 2020 0.076
October 2020 0.077
November 2020 0.079
December 2020 0.079
January 2021 0.072
Februrary 2021 0.079
March 2021 0.064
April 2021 0.076
May 2021 0.079
June 2021 0.079
July 2021 0.079
August 2021 0.080
September 2021 0.081
October 2021 0.081
November 2021 0.082
December 2021 0.082
January 2022 0.084
Februrary 2022 0.084
March 2022 0.084
April 2022 0.085
May 2022 0.085
June 2022 0.085
July 2022 0.085
August 2022 0.085
September 2022 0.085
October 2022 0.085
November 2022 0.086
December 2022 0.086
January 2023 0.085
Februrary 2023 0.085
March 2023 0.085
April 2023 0.085
May 2023 0.085
June 2023 0.086
July 2023 0.086
August 2023 0.087
September 2023 0.087

Note: This chart shows the savings rate obtained as a counterfactual where the flow of nominal savings is at its trend while Disposable Personal Income fluctuates as it does in the data. This represents the implied savings rate used in Abdelrahman and Oliveira (2023) as a counterfactual to construct “excess savings”.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.

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Figure 4: Various measures of U.S. excess savings

Billions USD

Date Our Linear Estimate Aladangady et al. Abdelrahman and Oliveira
October 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00
November 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00
December 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00
January 2020 78.01 78.55 0.00
Februrary 2020 78.01 78.55 2.83
March 2020 78.01 78.55 67.94
April 2020 837.96 879.47 460.03
May 2020 837.96 879.47 689.43
June 2020 837.96 879.47 853.01
July 2020 1167.28 1230.49 1012.48
August 2020 1167.28 1230.49 1105.29
September 2020 1167.28 1230.49 1186.70
October 2020 1371.38 1443.18 1260.74
November 2020 1371.38 1443.18 1320.94
December 2020 1371.38 1443.18 1380.70
January 2021 1950.25 2087.49 1574.01
Februrary 2021 1950.25 2087.49 1646.04
March 2021 1950.25 2087.49 2005.10
April 2021 2065.44 2223.58 2077.52
May 2021 2065.44 2223.58 2108.51
June 2021 2065.44 2223.58 2120.17
July 2021 2097.12 2267.45 2143.36
August 2021 2097.12 2267.45 2155.05
September 2021 2097.12 2267.45 2142.06
October 2021 2027.69 2202.94 2118.20
November 2021 2027.69 2202.94 2087.92
December 2021 2027.69 2202.94 2054.78
January 2022 1852.48 2018.12 1989.45
Februrary 2022 1852.48 2018.12 1923.79
March 2022 1852.48 2018.12 1846.46
April 2022 1632.97 1786.93 1764.43
May 2022 1632.97 1786.93 1681.49
June 2022 1632.97 1786.93 1591.24
July 2022 1418.05 1562.15 1512.16
August 2022 1418.05 1562.15 1429.13
September 2022 1418.05 1562.15 1342.02
October 2022 1194.67 1331.03 1254.17
November 2022 1194.67 1331.03 1170.02
December 2022 1194.67 1331.03 1086.20
January 2023 1026.70 1172.42 1019.63
Februrary 2023 1026.70 1172.42 956.64
March 2023 1026.70 1172.42 902.76
April 2023 869.96 1027.71 848.12
May 2023 869.96 1027.71 794.38
June 2023 869.96 1027.71 733.24
July 2023 643.44 807.97 657.73
August 2023 643.44 807.97 578.76
September 2023 643.44 807.97 488.86

Note: Excess savings are computed at the quarterly frequency for our estimates as well as Aladangady et al. (2022), while they are computed at monthly frequency in Abdelrahman and Oliveira (2023).

Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.

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Figure 5: U.S. Excess Savings with Trend Estimated Across Different Sample Periods

Hamilton Trend (left panel)
Percent of nominal GDP

  Starts in 1950 Q1 Starts in 1990 Q1
2019 Q4 0.000 0.000
2020 Q1 0.594 0.724
2020 Q2 4.729 5.031
2020 Q3 6.084 6.494
2020 Q4 7.048 7.616
2021 Q1 9.469 10.258
2021 Q2 9.764 10.744
2021 Q3 9.803 11.010
2021 Q4 9.332 10.783
2022 Q1 8.488 10.213
2022 Q2 6.098 8.489
2022 Q3 4.174 6.858
2022 Q4 2.544 5.794
2023 Q1 0.293 5.015
2023 Q2 -0.952 4.414
2023 Q3 -1.982 3.919

Linear Trend (right panel)
Percent of nominal GDP

  2-year linear trend 10-year linear trend
2019 Q4 0.000 0.000
2020 Q1 0.259 0.534
2020 Q2 3.959 4.628
2020 Q3 5.022 6.002
2020 Q4 5.710 7.062
2021 Q1 7.940 9.723
2021 Q2 8.013 10.200
2021 Q3 7.768 10.387
2021 Q4 7.020 10.050
2022 Q1 5.998 9.503
2022 Q2 4.787 8.770
2022 Q3 3.631 8.127
2022 Q4 2.469 7.504
2023 Q1 1.525 7.139
2023 Q2 0.636 6.887
2023 Q3 -0.503 6.330

Note: Excess savings are computed as deviation from a Hamilton trend. The sample used in the estimation of the Hamilton trend plays a quantitatively important role in the estimates.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.

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Figure 6: U.S. Savings Rate (Gross vs. Net) and Estimated Stock of Excess Savings

Savings rates (left panel)
Percent of nominal GDP

Date Gross Savings rate Net saving rate
2018 Q1 0.096 0.060
2018 Q2 0.099 0.063
2018 Q3 0.104 0.068
2018 Q4 0.110 0.075
2019 Q1 0.119 0.085
2019 Q2 0.111 0.076
2019 Q3 0.108 0.073
2019 Q4 0.107 0.072
2020 Q1 0.129 0.094
2020 Q2 0.278 0.251
2020 Q3 0.186 0.155
2020 Q4 0.160 0.126
2021 Q1 0.231 0.204
2021 Q2 0.140 0.106
2021 Q3 0.123 0.087
2021 Q4 0.102 0.064
2022 Q1 0.081 0.040
2022 Q2 0.073 0.031
2022 Q3 0.076 0.033
2022 Q4 0.076 0.034
2023 Q1 0.089 0.049
2023 Q2 0.093 0.053
2023 Q3 0.080 0.040

Stock of exess savings (right panel)
Percent of nominal GDP

Date Using net saving rate Using gross saving rate
2019 Q4 0.000 0.000
2020 Q1 0.379 0.359
2020 Q2 4.444 4.208
2020 Q3 5.703 5.392
2020 Q4 6.582 6.227
2021 Q1 9.155 8.629
2021 Q2 9.409 8.867
2021 Q3 9.325 8.801
2021 Q4 8.692 8.224
2022 Q1 7.770 7.401
2022 Q2 6.644 6.393
2022 Q3 5.590 5.455
2022 Q4 4.549 4.524
2023 Q1 3.785 3.829
2023 Q2 3.111 3.215
2023 Q3 2.149 2.329

Note: Gross and Net savings rate in the United States are very highly correlated. Computing excess savings as deviation of gross vs. net savings rate does not have a large impact on the results.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.

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Figure 7: Excess Savings and Government Fiscal Support

Linear trend (left panel)
Slope = 0.2673***; R-squared = 0.2454

Cummulative Government Fiscal Support Household Excess Savings (Linear Trend)
6.209 6.626
9.683 11.105
9.103 11.743
11.898 8.074
16.838 13.192
17.292 16.238
5.511 3.058
11.701 4.769
16.175 4.616
10.817 4.748
20.721 6.723
28.247 7.311
6.495 3.658
10.952 6.034
15.189 6.595
11.932 9.043
20.693 14.544
28.757 16.639
9.300 5.200
19.360 8.771
29.367 9.346
7.662 4.748
13.567 6.723
20.777 7.311
8.813 6.227
15.671 8.801
17.857 7.401

Hamilton trend (right panel)
Slope = 0.1434**; R-squared = 0.1841

Cummulative Government Fiscal Support Household Excess Savings (Hamilton Trend)
6.209 6.947
9.683 11.163
9.103 11.295
11.898 7.780
16.838 11.754
17.292 11.977
5.511 3.364
11.701 5.646
16.175 5.433
10.817 6.347
20.721 9.012
28.247 8.945
6.495 4.168
10.952 6.490
15.189 6.596
11.932 6.520
20.693 9.388
28.757 8.906
9.300 4.884
19.360 8.094
29.367 7.880
7.662 5.720
13.567 8.216
20.777 8.740
8.813 7.175
15.671 10.000
17.857 8.798

Note: Each point represents a country-year. The yearly value is the maximum excess savings and government expenditure value for that year. *** means significant at the 1 percent level, ** means significant at the 5 percent level.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors' calculations.

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Figure A1: U.S. Gross Savings Rate Over Time
Date US Gross Savings Rate
1950 Q1 0.133
1950 Q2 0.116
1950 Q3 0.082
1950 Q4 0.115
1951 Q1 0.095
1951 Q2 0.140
1951 Q3 0.140
1951 Q4 0.134
1952 Q1 0.131
1952 Q2 0.125
1952 Q3 0.138
1952 Q4 0.126
1953 Q1 0.125
1953 Q2 0.131
1953 Q3 0.128
1953 Q4 0.132
1954 Q1 0.133
1954 Q2 0.122
1954 Q3 0.119
1954 Q4 0.119
1955 Q1 0.113
1955 Q2 0.116
1955 Q3 0.120
1955 Q4 0.119
1956 Q1 0.126
1956 Q2 0.132
1956 Q3 0.134
1956 Q4 0.136
1957 Q1 0.132
1957 Q2 0.137
1957 Q3 0.135
1957 Q4 0.128
1958 Q1 0.133
1958 Q2 0.132
1958 Q3 0.137
1958 Q4 0.138
1959 Q1 0.128
1959 Q2 0.128
1959 Q3 0.118
1959 Q4 0.123
1960 Q1 0.124
1960 Q2 0.118
1960 Q3 0.124
1960 Q4 0.122
1961 Q1 0.130
1961 Q2 0.131
1961 Q3 0.138
1961 Q4 0.137
1962 Q1 0.137
1962 Q2 0.135
1962 Q3 0.132
1962 Q4 0.128
1963 Q1 0.129
1963 Q2 0.128
1963 Q3 0.125
1963 Q4 0.132
1964 Q1 0.132
1964 Q2 0.140
1964 Q3 0.134
1964 Q4 0.142
1965 Q1 0.133
1965 Q2 0.133
1965 Q3 0.141
1965 Q4 0.135
1966 Q1 0.131
1966 Q2 0.130
1966 Q3 0.131
1966 Q4 0.138
1967 Q1 0.146
1967 Q2 0.140
1967 Q3 0.145
1967 Q4 0.146
1968 Q1 0.140
1968 Q2 0.141
1968 Q3 0.127
1968 Q4 0.130
1969 Q1 0.123
1969 Q2 0.125
1969 Q3 0.139
1969 Q4 0.138
1970 Q1 0.142
1970 Q2 0.148
1970 Q3 0.154
1970 Q4 0.155
1971 Q1 0.156
1971 Q2 0.160
1971 Q3 0.158
1971 Q4 0.154
1972 Q1 0.146
1972 Q2 0.139
1972 Q3 0.143
1972 Q4 0.157
1973 Q1 0.148
1973 Q2 0.156
1973 Q3 0.157
1973 Q4 0.168
1974 Q1 0.163
1974 Q2 0.153
1974 Q3 0.150
1974 Q4 0.162
1975 Q1 0.153
1975 Q2 0.178
1975 Q3 0.154
1975 Q4 0.152
1976 Q1 0.146
1976 Q2 0.143
1976 Q3 0.141
1976 Q4 0.136
1977 Q1 0.127
1977 Q2 0.131
1977 Q3 0.135
1977 Q4 0.139
1978 Q1 0.141
1978 Q2 0.131
1978 Q3 0.134
1978 Q4 0.133
1979 Q1 0.140
1979 Q2 0.133
1979 Q3 0.128
1979 Q4 0.128
1980 Q1 0.131
1980 Q2 0.144
1980 Q3 0.145
1980 Q4 0.144
1981 Q1 0.138
1981 Q2 0.138
1981 Q3 0.152
1981 Q4 0.157
1982 Q1 0.152
1982 Q2 0.154
1982 Q3 0.152
1982 Q4 0.140
1983 Q1 0.139
1983 Q2 0.127
1983 Q3 0.124
1983 Q4 0.129
1984 Q1 0.138
1984 Q2 0.140
1984 Q3 0.144
1984 Q4 0.140
1985 Q1 0.121
1985 Q2 0.130
1985 Q3 0.110
1985 Q4 0.118
1986 Q1 0.122
1986 Q2 0.124
1986 Q3 0.114
1986 Q4 0.108
1987 Q1 0.115
1987 Q2 0.094
1987 Q3 0.100
1987 Q4 0.112
1988 Q1 0.111
1988 Q2 0.114
1988 Q3 0.115
1988 Q4 0.114
1989 Q1 0.118
1989 Q2 0.111
1989 Q3 0.108
1989 Q4 0.112
1990 Q1 0.112
1990 Q2 0.116
1990 Q3 0.112
1990 Q4 0.112
1991 Q1 0.118
1991 Q2 0.117
1991 Q3 0.116
1991 Q4 0.123
1992 Q1 0.125
1992 Q2 0.127
1992 Q3 0.121
1992 Q4 0.116
1993 Q1 0.116
1993 Q2 0.111
1993 Q3 0.102
1993 Q4 0.101
1994 Q1 0.097
1994 Q2 0.098
1994 Q3 0.096
1994 Q4 0.099
1995 Q1 0.104
1995 Q2 0.098
1995 Q3 0.097
1995 Q4 0.095
1996 Q1 0.095
1996 Q2 0.093
1996 Q3 0.094
1996 Q4 0.091
1997 Q1 0.090
1997 Q2 0.093
1997 Q3 0.088
1997 Q4 0.091
1998 Q1 0.100
1998 Q2 0.097
1998 Q3 0.094
1998 Q4 0.088
1999 Q1 0.090
1999 Q2 0.076
1999 Q3 0.072
1999 Q4 0.071
2000 Q1 0.073
2000 Q2 0.075
2000 Q3 0.077
2000 Q4 0.074
2001 Q1 0.079
2001 Q2 0.077
2001 Q3 0.095
2001 Q4 0.066
2002 Q1 0.088
2002 Q2 0.091
2002 Q3 0.087
2002 Q4 0.088
2003 Q1 0.085
2003 Q2 0.085
2003 Q3 0.088
2003 Q4 0.084
2004 Q1 0.081
2004 Q2 0.085
2004 Q3 0.081
2004 Q4 0.081
2005 Q1 0.062
2005 Q2 0.060
2005 Q3 0.056
2005 Q4 0.063
2006 Q1 0.071
2006 Q2 0.069
2006 Q3 0.063
2006 Q4 0.065
2007 Q1 0.066
2007 Q2 0.068
2007 Q3 0.063
2007 Q4 0.060
2008 Q1 0.066
2008 Q2 0.083
2008 Q3 0.072
2008 Q4 0.092
2009 Q1 0.094
2009 Q2 0.104
2009 Q3 0.087
2009 Q4 0.090
2010 Q1 0.090
2010 Q2 0.097
2010 Q3 0.096
2010 Q4 0.094
2011 Q1 0.100
2011 Q2 0.097
2011 Q3 0.100
2011 Q4 0.100
2012 Q1 0.107
2012 Q2 0.112
2012 Q3 0.103
2012 Q4 0.124
2013 Q1 0.083
2013 Q2 0.088
2013 Q3 0.088
2013 Q4 0.081
2014 Q1 0.089
2014 Q2 0.091
2014 Q3 0.090
2014 Q4 0.092
2015 Q1 0.098
2015 Q2 0.094
2015 Q3 0.092
2015 Q4 0.094
2016 Q1 0.095
2016 Q2 0.089
2016 Q3 0.088
2016 Q4 0.089
2017 Q1 0.092
2017 Q2 0.097
2017 Q3 0.097
2017 Q4 0.093
2018 Q1 0.096
2018 Q2 0.099
2018 Q3 0.104
2018 Q4 0.110
2019 Q1 0.119
2019 Q2 0.111
2019 Q3 0.108
2019 Q4 0.107
2020 Q1 0.129
2020 Q2 0.278
2020 Q3 0.186
2020 Q4 0.160
2021 Q1 0.231
2021 Q2 0.140
2021 Q3 0.123
2021 Q4 0.102
2022 Q1 0.081
2022 Q2 0.073
2022 Q3 0.076
2022 Q4 0.076
2023 Q1 0.089
2023 Q2 0.093
2023 Q3 0.080

Note: The figure plots the monthly U.S. gross savings rate from 1950q1 to 2023q3. The gross savings rate is defined as the sum of net savings and consumption of fixed capital divided by disposable personal income.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.

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Last Update: December 15, 2023