Are Rising Home Values Restraining Homebuying for Lower-Income Families? Accessible Data

Figure 1: County house price growth vs. county income growth, 2012-2015

FIPS County Code Growth in median household income, 2012-15 Growth in median home value, 2012-15
1003 7% 12%
1055 27% 4%
1069 8% 9%
1073 10% 4%
1077 2% 6%
1089 3% 4%
1097 8% 2%
1115 5% 9%
1117 7% 10%
1125 19% 12%
2020 8% 11%
2090 10% -1%
4003 0% -6%
4005 16% 26%
4013 9% 41%
4015 19% 26%
4019 5% 16%
4021 1% 39%
4025 9% 32%
4027 3% 14%
5007 12% 13%
5031 -9% 16%
5045 2% 6%
5051 -9% 1%
5119 4% 1%
5125 -5% 2%
5131 8% 4%
5143 12% 10%
5145 0% 8%
6001 16% 62%
6007 11% 23%
6013 12% 56%
6017 13% 41%
6019 13% 38%
6023 0% 7%
6025 2% 33%
6029 12% 41%
6031 0% 25%
6033 12% 69%
6037 12% 36%
6039 12% 41%
6041 11% 31%
6045 1% 32%
6047 -4% 68%
6053 4% 46%
6055 10% 45%
6057 1% 39%
6059 9% 36%
6061 10% 40%
6065 11% 47%
6067 12% 55%
6071 6% 51%
6073 12% 34%
6075 26% 57%
6077 6% 68%
6079 4% 34%
6081 24% 54%
6083 3% 37%
6085 12% 51%
6087 -4% 37%
6089 3% 33%
6095 9% 71%
6097 11% 50%
6099 13% 66%
6101 11% 51%
6107 5% 37%
6111 12% 31%
6113 17% 45%
6115 16% 54%
8001 14% 42%
8005 11% 40%
8013 7% 31%
8031 15% 44%
8035 13% 30%
8041 9% 14%
8059 5% 35%
8069 16% 27%
8077 12% 8%
8101 -3% 13%
8123 27% 38%
9001 8% 9%
9003 10% 0%
9005 4% 4%
9007 12% 4%
9009 4% 3%
9011 -1% 3%
9013 9% -1%
9015 16% 2%
10001 7% 9%
10003 7% 8%
11001 14% 34%
12001 15% 11%
12005 5% 17%
12009 9% 35%
12011 8% 46%
12015 1% 33%
12017 2% 19%
12019 7% 18%
12021 15% 37%
12023 31% 10%
12031 14% 26%
12033 2% 17%
12035 14% 28%
12053 19% 33%
12055 -1% 16%
12057 11% 36%
12061 22% 28%
12069 22% 31%
12071 9% 37%
12073 -1% 11%
12081 7% 36%
12083 8% 25%
12085 15% 33%
12086 6% 46%
12087 14% 31%
12089 -2% 17%
12091 5% 16%
12095 11% 39%
12097 5% 42%
12099 11% 48%
12101 8% 27%
12103 6% 34%
12105 7% 32%
12107 -7% -2%
12109 15% 22%
12111 10% 44%
12113 -2% 11%
12115 17% 40%
12117 4% 34%
12119 14% 22%
12127 5% 33%
13013 12% 35%
13015 9% 28%
13021 7% -7%
13031 -7% 5%
13045 1% 47%
13047 21% 2%
13051 16% 11%
13057 11% 20%
13059 -4% 9%
13067 11% 25%
13073 11% 12%
13077 10% 20%
13089 10% 39%
13095 17% -2%
13097 19% 23%
13113 1% 23%
13115 7% 16%
13117 11% 29%
13121 9% 39%
13127 3% 12%
13135 9% 39%
13139 11% 16%
13151 17% 27%
13153 1% -1%
13179 -15% -3%
13185 -7% -5%
13215 -7% -3%
13217 4% 42%
13223 5% 25%
13245 12% 1%
13247 1% 20%
13295 24% 9%
13297 18% 11%
13313 31% 23%
15001 19% 27%
15003 8% 23%
15009 15% 37%
16001 6% 32%
16019 8% 4%
16027 3% 47%
16083 12% 13%
17019 8% 2%
17031 9% 17%
17037 21% 9%
17043 4% 16%
17089 9% 18%
17091 4% -18%
17093 11% 16%
17097 10% 13%
17099 6% -1%
17111 4% 17%
17113 5% 5%
17119 2% -3%
17143 16% -3%
17161 0% 6%
17163 8% -5%
17167 4% 4%
17179 -7% 3%
17197 5% 13%
17201 1% -6%
18003 2% 8%
18005 1% 13%
18019 4% 5%
18035 10% 12%
18039 9% 6%
18043 8% 5%
18053 -1% -3%
18057 6% 13%
18059 11% 12%
18063 3% 5%
18067 20% 8%
18081 12% 14%
18089 5% 4%
18095 5% 9%
18097 0% 19%
18105 17% 7%
18109 16% 11%
18127 1% 8%
18157 18% 8%
18163 3% 12%
18167 -5% 3%
18177 26% 2%
19049 12% 15%
19113 -1% 3%
19153 4% 9%
19155 6% 6%
20045 6% 1%
20091 13% 12%
20173 7% 9%
20177 7% -7%
20209 11% 12%
21015 2% 5%
21037 -8% 4%
21047 3% 2%
21067 12% 4%
21093 0% -3%
21111 12% 8%
21117 -3% 3%
21151 19% 0%
21227 8% 11%
22005 16% 11%
22015 5% -3%
22017 0% 0%
22019 3% 15%
22033 5% 1%
22045 6% 29%
22051 9% 6%
22057 8% -1%
22063 12% 18%
22071 14% 20%
22079 5% 24%
22097 -15% 25%
22103 12% 9%
22105 23% 1%
22109 -15% -2%
24001 -1% 5%
24003 2% 12%
24005 10% 10%
24009 21% 4%
24013 6% 10%
24015 12% 5%
24017 -2% 10%
24021 4% 18%
24025 2% 3%
24027 2% 8%
24031 4% 12%
24033 10% 33%
24037 -1% 1%
24043 5% 5%
24045 6% 7%
24510 13% 15%
25001 11% 9%
25003 9% 2%
25005 12% 13%
25009 1% 19%
25011 6% 5%
25013 5% 6%
25015 3% 4%
25017 10% 19%
25021 17% 20%
25023 2% 12%
25025 11% 31%
25027 5% 11%
26005 10% 19%
26017 5% 1%
26021 7% 8%
26025 10% 14%
26037 11% 20%
26045 1% 15%
26049 9% 36%
26065 9% 26%
26075 19% 31%
26077 18% 20%
26081 7% 22%
26093 1% 28%
26099 5% 44%
26111 13% 4%
26115 7% 22%
26121 17% 13%
26125 11% 41%
26139 12% 18%
26147 15% 33%
26155 26% 21%
26159 8% 28%
26161 10% 27%
26163 5% 21%
27003 8% 27%
27013 -2% 8%
27019 11% 17%
27037 8% 28%
27053 10% 22%
27109 10% 11%
27123 6% 29%
27137 7% 10%
27139 8% 17%
27141 16% 25%
27163 10% 20%
28033 12% 4%
28035 7% -3%
28047 3% -11%
28049 13% 2%
28059 2% 1%
28067 -5% 18%
28081 -4% 7%
28089 13% 5%
29019 14% 6%
29031 8% 17%
29037 14% 3%
29047 14% 6%
29051 12% 1%
29071 15% 4%
29077 8% 5%
29095 9% 8%
29097 18% 2%
29099 12% 3%
29183 4% 10%
29189 9% 9%
29510 20% -1%
30013 9% 2%
30063 -6% 6%
30111 17% 12%
31055 14% 11%
31109 7% 12%
31153 10% 15%
32003 4% 55%
32031 15% 66%
33005 10% 5%
33009 11% 3%
33011 8% 14%
33013 17% 12%
33015 15% 16%
33017 18% 13%
34001 6% -2%
34003 8% 11%
34005 0% 4%
34007 10% 3%
34009 0% 4%
34011 9% -3%
34013 2% 16%
34015 6% 3%
34017 5% 22%
34019 -3% 8%
34021 7% 5%
34023 2% 8%
34025 7% 10%
34027 7% 9%
34029 8% 8%
34031 -5% 6%
34033 14% 0%
34035 3% 7%
34037 -2% 3%
34039 8% 8%
34041 0% 8%
35001 3% 6%
35013 6% -2%
35031 -5% -1%
35043 10% 3%
35049 10% 5%
35061 10% -4%
36001 -3% 4%
36007 2% 1%
36009 -8% 1%
36011 6% 5%
36015 16% -3%
36019 -13% 5%
36027 8% 3%
36045 10% -1%
36047 13% 27%
36051 1% 5%
36055 7% 5%
36059 9% 14%
36061 13% 21%
36063 -1% 8%
36067 9% 3%
36071 10% 0%
36075 6% 4%
36079 -6% 9%
36081 10% 14%
36085 1% 11%
36087 3% 10%
36091 13% 6%
36093 9% 0%
36101 2% 3%
36103 2% 3%
36109 16% 12%
36111 4% 2%
36113 6% 1%
36119 11% 12%
37001 -1% 6%
37019 -5% 9%
37021 3% 18%
37023 15% 3%
37025 2% 8%
37031 2% -2%
37035 -2% 6%
37037 2% 10%
37051 -6% -4%
37057 6% 7%
37063 5% 10%
37067 9% 3%
37071 8% 13%
37081 12% 7%
37085 7% 2%
37089 4% 12%
37097 14% 5%
37101 11% 9%
37109 2% 4%
37119 3% 19%
37125 4% 3%
37127 7% -9%
37129 2% 16%
37133 4% -6%
37135 20% 9%
37151 2% 4%
37159 13% 4%
37179 20% 15%
37183 11% 15%
37195 11% 3%
38015 3% 30%
38017 5% 24%
39003 21% 7%
39013 4% 22%
39017 6% 7%
39023 22% 9%
39025 17% 5%
39035 8% 5%
39041 13% 13%
39043 6% 11%
39045 1% 10%
39049 8% 11%
39057 14% 4%
39061 9% 7%
39063 14% 8%
39085 11% 6%
39093 7% 8%
39095 5% 6%
39099 6% 3%
39101 -6% 6%
39103 8% 9%
39109 -7% 4%
39113 9% 2%
39119 9% 9%
39133 1% 10%
39139 8% 4%
39141 5% 17%
39145 -3% 13%
39151 7% 13%
39153 5% 8%
39155 3% 7%
39165 11% 13%
39173 15% 4%
40017 -1% 12%
40037 5% 4%
40109 14% 8%
40125 2% 7%
40143 8% 10%
41003 3% 14%
41005 8% 33%
41017 21% 51%
41019 4% 9%
41029 -2% 36%
41033 21% 25%
41035 13% 27%
41039 16% 17%
41043 9% 18%
41047 15% 22%
41051 14% 33%
41053 17% 19%
41059 1% 16%
41067 11% 31%
41071 8% 30%
42001 1% 4%
42003 7% 11%
42005 6% 12%
42007 6% 11%
42011 8% 4%
42013 10% 4%
42017 7% 8%
42019 20% 11%
42021 11% 3%
42025 13% -3%
42027 11% 10%
42029 10% 10%
42033 7% 6%
42037 -8% 3%
42041 11% 3%
42043 4% 3%
42045 11% 0%
42049 2% 5%
42055 12% 5%
42063 6% 4%
42069 13% -1%
42071 8% 6%
42073 -1% 7%
42075 2% -3%
42077 5% 3%
42079 19% 6%
42085 12% 5%
42089 2% -3%
42091 8% 7%
42095 13% 4%
42097 10% 11%
42101 17% 6%
42111 -6% -6%
42125 7% 6%
42129 8% 9%
42133 5% 6%
44003 10% 9%
44005 2% 15%
44007 5% 16%
44009 3% 7%
45003 3% -1%
45007 11% 8%
45013 11% 14%
45015 14% 13%
45035 2% 13%
45041 -1% 7%
45045 11% 12%
45057 2% 7%
45063 6% 4%
45073 16% -4%
45075 13% -9%
45079 7% 6%
45083 10% 6%
45085 4% 2%
45091 11% 7%
47001 11% 4%
47009 7% 6%
47011 11% 3%
47037 17% 24%
47059 1% 10%
47065 2% 7%
47113 11% 5%
47119 21% 14%
47125 2% 3%
47141 29% 7%
47147 -5% 11%
47149 13% 17%
47155 -3% 7%
47157 5% 11%
47163 11% 10%
47165 8% 13%
47179 7% 3%
47187 13% 20%
47189 14% 24%
48027 0% 3%
48041 11% 10%
48061 10% 2%
48085 6% 32%
48091 20% 14%
48099 -2% -3%
48113 10% 25%
48121 6% 28%
48139 19% 15%
48141 8% -3%
48183 13% 2%
48209 12% 21%
48213 29% 3%
48231 9% 12%
48251 2% 12%
48257 7% 19%
48329 32% 25%
48347 22% 6%
48367 4% 18%
48397 10% 26%
48439 8% 21%
48451 8% 23%
48453 14% 31%
48479 9% 19%
48491 11% 29%
49011 4% 16%
49035 12% 25%
49049 12% 24%
49053 25% 21%
49057 9% 14%
51003 -3% 9%
51013 6% 15%
51015 20% 8%
51019 -6% 5%
51041 7% 10%
51059 6% 13%
51061 10% 18%
51069 7% 16%
51085 11% 11%
51087 13% 14%
51095 -7% 8%
51107 6% 11%
51153 6% 16%
51161 10% 6%
51177 -4% 21%
51179 -2% 11%
51199 18% 9%
51510 11% 14%
51550 3% 7%
51650 9% -1%
51680 7% 4%
51700 2% -3%
51710 8% 7%
51740 16% 3%
51760 5% 8%
51770 5% 4%
51800 -6% 3%
51810 9% 7%
53005 8% 25%
53007 24% 13%
53009 6% 10%
53011 15% 32%
53015 5% 16%
53021 8% 9%
53025 12% 8%
53027 5% 0%
53029 5% 11%
53033 19% 34%
53035 12% 16%
53041 12% 14%
53053 4% 24%
53057 7% 18%
53061 14% 35%
53063 2% 11%
53067 7% 10%
53073 7% 13%
53077 7% 8%
54039 -4% 1%
55009 9% 5%
55025 9% 10%
55027 10% 1%
55035 8% 9%
55039 9% 0%
55059 3% 6%
55063 5% 6%
55071 9% -2%
55079 8% 8%
55089 5% 7%
55101 10% 3%
55105 17% 12%
55109 5% 17%
55127 20% -2%
55131 9% 10%
55133 7% 9%
55139 1% 9%
56021 12% 6%
56025 -3% 19%

Sources: Zillow, ACS

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Figure 2: Probability of mortgage denial due to high DTI or insufficient cash

Borrower Income DTI Ratio Insufficient Cash Both
< $25k 0.132 0.013 0.012
$25k - $49k 0.038 0.008 0.004
$50k - $74k 0.022 0.005 0.002
$75k - $99k 0.016 0.004 0.002
>$100k 0.014 0.005 0.002

Source: HMDA

Note: Figure displays the fraction of all home purchase loan applications that are denied for the stated reason of the borrower’s DTI ratio or insufficient cash. Applications restricted to first liens on owner-occupied, 1-4 family residences for which the lender reached a credit decision in 2016.

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Figure 3: Mortgage loan amount relative to income

Borrower Income Median Mortgage Debt to Income Ratio
< $25k 3.71
$25k - $49k 3.33
$50k - $74k 2.99
$75k - $99k 2.70
>$100k 2.25

Source: HMDA

Note: First-lien home purchase loans for owner-occupied, 1-4-family residences in 2016.

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Figure 4: Growth in the likelihood of getting a home purchase loan, by income and county house price growth

County house price growth, 2013-16 Family income < $50k Family income ≥ $50k
< 0% 0.252 0.220
0%-9% 0.239 0.244
10%-19% 0.195 0.220
20%-34% 0.165 0.230
>35% 0.115 0.261

Sources: ACS, Zillow, HMDA

Notes: Each data point represents the change from 2013 to 2016 in the log fraction of families in a given income category and county group that took out a first-lien home purchase loan for a 1-4 family owner-occupied property. Numbers of loans are from the 2013 and 2016 HMDA data; numbers of families are from the 2012 and 2015 ACS.

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Last Update: September 28, 2017