Accessible Version
Bottlenecks, Shortages, and Soaring Prices in the U.S. Economy, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Personal Consumption Expenditures on Goods
The left panel, “Real Spending” depicts two data series over the period 2017 to 2022. Both series are indexed to December 2019=100. The first series is the red trend line for real spending. This straight trend line rises from about 90 in early 2017 to just under 110 in early 2022. The second series is the black line depicting data on real spending. It tracks the trend line from early 2017 to early 2020. It drops sharply in 2020:Q2 before rebounding and exceeding the trend line by 2020:Q3. It rises even more sharply by mid-2021, reaching above 120 before drifting back down slightly to reach 115 by early 2022, still well above trend.
The right panel, “Price Levels” depicts two data series over the period 2017 to 2022. Both series are indexed to December 2019=100. The first series is the red trend line for the price level. This straight trend declines very slightly over the period, from about 100.1 in early 2017 to 100.0 in early 2022. The second series is the black line depicting data on the price level. It tracks the trend line from early 2017 to late 2020, fluctuating between 98 and 101. It the rises steeply beginning at the start of 2021, reaching 112 by early 2022.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.
Figure 2. Imports and Shipping
The left panel, “U.S. Imports and Container Throughput” depicts three data series over the period 2017 to 2022. All 3 are indexed to 2019:Q4=100. The first series is Trend: real consumer goods imports. This straight red dashed trend line rises from about 90 in 2017:Q1 to just over 115 in 2022:Q1. The second series is the black line depicting data on real consumer goods imports. It tracks the trend line from 2017:Q1 to 2019:Q3. Then it drops back near 90 in 2020:Q2 before rising sharply above trend, ending near 145 in 2022:Q1. The third series is the dotted blue line depicting data on seaborne containers throughput at various U.S. ports. This data series strongly comoves with the data on real goods imports, increasing from about 95 in 2017:Q1 to 110 in 2019:Q3. Then, like real consumer goods imports, it drops back near 90 in 2020:Q2 before rising sharply above trend, ending near 130 in 2022:Q1.
Note: The containers data are seasonally adjusted quarterly averages of monthly data.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Maryland Port Administration; Virginia Port Authority; South Carolina Port Authority; Port of Houston Authority; Port of Los Angeles; Port of Long Beach; Port of New York and New Jersey; Port of Oakland; Georgia Ports Authority; Northwest Seaport Alliance; all via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.
The right panel, “Shipping Cost and Timeliness” depicts two data series over the period 2018 to 2022. The first is a dotted blue line depicting the cost of chartering a container ship, and its units are index values, with December 2019 = 100. The series remains near 100 from early 2018 through mid-2020. It starts rising and rises most sharply in mid-2021. It ranges around 600 to 800 from 2021:Q4 to 2022:Q2. The second series is black line depicting vessel schedule reliability and its units are Percent of vessels on schedule. It fluctuates between 60 and 80 from early 2018 through mid-2020. It then declines to around 40 by early 2021, and remains around that level through 2022:Q2.
Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted. "On schedule" is defined as a vessel arriving within 1 day of its listed schedule.
Source: NewConTex, © VHSS e.V., Hamburg and Bremen Shipbrokers' Association; Sea-Intelligence (2021), Global Liner Performance, issue 127 (March).
Figure 3. Labor Market
The left panel, “Labor Force Participation Rate” depicts one data series over the period 2017 to 2022. The series depicts the labor force participation rate and its units are Percent. It fluctuates between 62.5 and 63.5 from early 2017 through March 2020. It then declines precipitously to just above 60 in April 2020, rebounds quickly to 61.5 around May 2020, and remains near that level till late in 2021. It then climbs to about 62.3 by early 2022.
Note: The labor force participation rate is a percentage of the population aged 16 and over.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.
The right panel, “Total Hourly Compensation” depicts two data series over the period 2017 to 2022. Both series are indexed to 2019:Q4=100. The first series is the red trend line for total hourly compensation. This straight trend line rises from about 93 in early 2017 to just over 105 in early 2022. The second series is a black line depicting the data on total hourly compensation. It tracks the trend line from early 2017 through mid-2021. It then rises more steeply, up to about 109 by in early 2022.
Note: The data are the private-sector employment cost index for total compensation, which includes both wages and benefits.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.
Figure 4. Motor Vehicles
The left panel, “Domestic Light Vehicles” depicts two data series over the period 2017 to 2022. The first is a blue line depicting inventories, and its units are Millions of units, end of month. The series fluctuates around 3 from early 2017 to mid-2019 before declining to about 1.0 in mid-2021. It then remains near the same level, rising only very slightly through April 2022. The second series is black line depicting production and its units are Millions of units, annual rate. It fluctuates between 10 and 12 from early 2017 through early 2020. It then declines sharply to 0 in April 2020 before rebounding sharply to about 12 in June 2020. It then declines gradually to about 8 in September 2021 before picking up to around 10 in April 2022.
Source: Ward’s Communications.
The right panel, “Used and New Vehicle Prices” depicts two data series over the period 2018 to 2022. Both series are indexed to December 2019 = 100. The first is a dotted blue line depicting the price of used vehicles. It remains around 100 from early 2017 through 2021:Q1, and then rises gradually to about 115 by April 2022. The second series is black line depicting new vehicles prices. It ranges from 100 to 105 from early 2017 through mid-2020. It steps up to around 110 for a few quarters, then skyrockets to range between 140 and 150 from mid-2021 to mid-2022.
Note: Consumer Price Indexes for new and used vehicles.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics.
Figure 5. Total and Core PCE Prices
The depicts Total PCE Inflation with a black line and Core PCE inflation with a dotted blue line. Both are in units of 12-month percent change. Total PCE inflation declines from a high of nearly 12 percent in mid-1980 to around 1 percent in 1998. Total PCE inflation then fluctuates between 1 and 4 from 1998 to 2020, notably declining during recessions (shaded in gray) and picking up just following them. Total PCE inflation then rises steeply beginning in early 2021, rising to above 6 percent by April 2022. Core PCE inflation declines from a high of nearly 10 percent in 1981 to around 1.5 percent in 1998. Core PCE inflation then fluctuates between 1 and 2.5 from 1998 to 2020, also declining during recessions and picking up just following them. Core PCE inflation then rises steeply beginning in early 2021, rising to around 5.5 percent by April 2022.
Note: The shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER): January 1980–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March 2001–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009, and February 2020–April 2020.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.
Figure 6. Industry Bottlenecks
Left panel: An Industry without Bottlenecks.
It has a vertical axis on the left for prices (P) and a horizontal axis on the bottom for quantities (Q).
There is a straight, slightly upward sloping, dashed green line, labeled “Long-run supply.” There is also a solid green line, labeled “Short-run supply (S).” This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve on the left side of the graph, but then is kinked in the middle of the chart, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply. The steeper rise of the short-run supply curve S indicates that [at some higher quantities], prices rise more quickly for a given increase in quantities, as compared to the long-run supply curve.
There is a straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “Demand (D).”
The demand curve intersects the supply curve on the left side of the graph, where the long-run and short-run supply curves are overlapping. The intersection of the lines is represented by a red dot and labeled as point A.
Right panel: Bottlenecks Emerge.
It has a vertical axis on the left for prices (P) and a horizontal axis on the bottom for quantities (Q).
There is a straight, slightly upward sloping, dashed green line, labeled “Long-run supply.” There is also a solid green line, labeled “Short-run supply (S).” This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve on the left side of the graph, but then is kinked in the middle of the chart, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply. The steeper rise of the short-run supply curve S indicates that [at some higher quantities], prices rise more quickly for a given increase in quantities, as compared to the long-run supply curve.
There is a straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “Demand (D).”
The demand curve intersects the supply curve on the right side of the graph, where the long-run and short-run supply curves diverge. The intersection of the demand curve and the short-run supply curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point B. The intersection of the demand curve and the long-run supply curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point C. The bottleneck is characterized by the difference between the realized quantity and price in the bottleneck equilibrium (point B) and the counterfactual higher quantity and lower price that would be achieved with the long-run supply curve (point C).
Figure 7. Shifts in Supply or Demand
Left panel: Supply Shifts Inward.
It has a vertical axis on the left for prices (P) and a horizontal axis on the bottom for quantities (Q).
There is a straight, slightly upward sloping, dashed green line, labeled “Long-run supply.” There is also a solid green line, labeled “S0” This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve on the left side of the graph, but then is kinked in the middle of the chart, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply. There is also another short-run supply curve, represented by a solid green line labeled “S1,” representing an inward shift of supply. This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve for only a short segment on the very leftmost side of the graph, but then is kinked just a little to the right of that point, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply, and running in parallel to the initial short-run supply curve, “S0.”
There is a demand curve, represented by a straight, downward sloping, solid blue line.
The demand curve intersects the S1 supply curve on the leftmost side of the graph, at a quantity a bit higher than where the long-run and S1 curves diverge. The intersection of the demand curve and the S1 curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point B. The intersection of the demand curve and the long-run supply curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point A=C. The bottleneck is characterized by the difference between the realized quantity and price in the bottleneck equilibrium (point B) and the counterfactual higher quantity and lower price that would be achieved with the long-run supply curve (point C), which was equivalent to the initial equilibrium A.
Right panel: Demand Shifts Outward.
It has a vertical axis on the left for prices (P) and a horizontal axis on the bottom for quantities (Q).
There is a straight, slightly upward sloping, dashed green line, labeled “Long-run supply.” There is also a solid green line, labeled “S0.” This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve on the left side of the graph, but then is kinked in the middle of the chart, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply.
There is a straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D0.” This line intersects the supply curve on the left side of the graph, where the long-run and short-run supply curves are overlapping. The intersection of the lines is represented by a red dot and labeled as point A.
There is a second straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D1,” running parallel to D0 and to its right, representing the outward shift of demand. This line intersects the supply curve on the right side of the graph, where the long-run and short-run supply curves diverge. The intersection of D1 and the S0 is represented by a red dot and labeled as point B. The intersection of D1 and the long-run supply curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point C. The bottleneck is characterized by the difference between the realized quantity and price in the bottleneck equilibrium (point B) and the counterfactual higher quantity and lower price that would be achieved with the long-run supply curve (point C).
Figure 8. Supply and Demand Shifts
Left panel: Supply Shifts In, Demand Shifts Outward.
It has a vertical axis on the left for prices (P) and a horizontal axis on the bottom for quantities (Q).
There is a straight, slightly upward sloping, dashed green line, labeled “Long-run supply.” There is also a solid green line, labeled “S0” This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve on the left side of the graph, but then is kinked in the middle of the chart, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply. There is also another short-run supply curve, represented by a solid green line labeled “S1,” representing an inward shift of supply. This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve for only a short segment on the very leftmost side of the graph, but then is kinked just a little to the right of that point, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply, and running in parallel to the initial short-run supply curve, “S0.”
There is a straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D0.” This line intersects the supply curve on the left side of the graph, just to the right of where the long-run supply curve and S1 diverge. The intersection of D0 and the long run supply curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point A.
There is a second straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D1,” running parallel to D0 and to its right, and representing an outward shift of demand. This line intersects the supply curves on the right side of the graph. The intersection of D1 and S1 towards the top of the graph is represented by a red dot and labeled as point B. The intersection of D1 and the long-run supply curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point C. The bottleneck is characterized by the difference between the realized quantity and much higher price in the bottleneck equilibrium (point B) and the counterfactual higher quantity and lower price that would be achieved with the long-run supply curve (point C).
Right panel: Supply and Demand both Shift Inward.
It has a vertical axis on the left for prices (P) and a horizontal axis on the bottom for quantities (Q).
There is a straight, slightly upward sloping, dashed green line, labeled “Long-run supply.” There is also a solid green line, labeled “S0” This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve on the left side of the graph, but then is kinked in the middle of the chart, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply. There is also another short-run supply curve, representing supply after it is shifted inward and depicted by a solid green line labeled “S1.” This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve for only a short segment on the very leftmost side of the graph, but then is kinked just a little to the right of that point, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply, and running in parallel to the initial short-run supply curve, “S0.”
There is a straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D0.” This line intersects the Long-run supply curve in the middle of the graph, after S1 has diverged from Long-run supply but where S1 and Long-run supply are still overlapping. The intersection of D0 and the long run supply curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point A.
There is a second straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D1,” representing demand after it has shifted inward, which runs parallel to D0 and to its left. This line intersects the supply curves on the left side of the graph. The intersection of D1 and S1 is represented by a red dot and labeled as point B. This line intersects the Long-run supply curve just to the left of point A, still after S1 has diverged from Long-run supply but where S1 and Long-run supply are still overlapping. The intersection of D1 and the long-run supply curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point C. The bottleneck is characterized by the difference between the realized quantity and price in the bottleneck equilibrium (point B) and the counterfactual higher quantity and lower price that would be achieved with the long-run supply curve (point C).
Figure 9. Personal Consumption Expenditures on Leisure, Hospitality, and Travel Services
The left panel, “Real Spending” depicts two data series over the period 2017 to 2022. Both series are in units of Millions of dollars. The first series is the red trend line for real spending. This straight trend line rises from about 1900 in early 2017 to around 2150 in early 2022. The second series is the black line depicting data on real spending. It tracks the trend line very tightly from early 2017 early 2020. It drops sharply to reach about 1000 in 2020:Q2 before rebounding quickly but only partially to 1500 by mid-2020, and remains near that level till 2021:Q1. It then climbs to about 1900 by mid-2021 and remains near that level till 2022:Q1.
The right panel, “Price Levels” depicts two data series over the period 2017 to 2022. Both series are indexed to December 2019 = 100. The first series is the red trend line for the price level. This straight trend rises from around 94 in early 2017 to 105 in early 2022. The second series is the black line depicting data on the price level. It tracks the trend line from early 2017 to early 2020. It then dips a bit below the trend for much of 2020 and then rises steeply beginning in early 2021, going above the trend line and reaching just above 110 by early 2022.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics; Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.
Figure 10. Bottlenecks, Sluggish Price Adjustment, Shortages
The figure has a vertical axis on the left for prices (P) and a horizontal axis on the bottom for quantities (Q).
There is a straight, slightly upward sloping, dashed green line, labeled “Long-run supply.” There is also a solid green line representing the short-run supply curve, labeled “S,” This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve on the left side of the graph, but then is kinked in the middle of the chart, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply.
There is a straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D0.” This line intersects the supply curve on the left side of the graph, where the long-run and short-run supply curves are overlapping. The intersection of the lines is represented by a red dot and labeled as point A.
There is a second straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D1,” representing demand after it has shifted outward, running parallel to D0 and to its right. This line intersects the supply curve on the right side of the graph, where the long-run and short-run supply curves diverge. The intersection of D1 and the S is depicted by a red dot and labeled as point B, and represents the market-clearing price level.
Below the price level of B, there is a horizontal line representing a price set by a producer that is lower than the market-clearing price level. This line is labeled P* and extends from the left axis to the D1 line. Where it crosses line S, the intersection is represented by a red dot and labeled as point E. Where it crosses line D1 (a bit to the right), the intersection is represented by a red dot and labeled as point F. In this figure, P* is the price set by the producer, and the shortage is represented by the difference between the quantity demanded (at point F) and supplied (at point E) at that price.
Figure 11. Personal Consumption Expenditures on Furniture
The left panel, “Real Spending” depicts two data series over the period 2017 to 2022. Both series are in units of Millions of dollars. The first series is the red trend line for real spending. This straight trend line rises from about 120 in early 2017 to around 170 in early 2022. The second series is the black line depicting data on real spending. It tracks the trend line from early 2017 to early 2020. It drops sharply in 2020:Q2 before rebounding and exceeding the trend line by 2020:Q3. It remains above the trend line through the end of 2021 and drops back below trend in early 2022.
The right panel, “Price Level” depicts two data series over the period 2017 to 2022. Both series are indexed to December 2019 = 100. The first series is the red trend line for the price level. This straight trend rises from around 97 in early 2017 to 103 in early 2022. The second series is the black line depicting data on the price level. It tracks the trend line from early 2017 to early 2021. It then rises sharply, reaching just above 120 by early 2022.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.
Figure 12. Rebalancing Demand from Goods to Services
Left panel: Goods Demand Shifts Inward, Supply Shifts Outward.
It has a vertical axis on the left for prices (P) and a horizontal axis on the bottom for quantities (Q).
There is a straight, slightly upward sloping, dashed green line, labeled “Long-run supply.” There is also a solid green line, labeled “S1.” This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve on the left side of the graph, but then is kinked just a little to the right of that point, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply. There is also another short-run supply curve diverging from long run supply, represented by a solid green line labeled “S2,” representing an outward shift of supply, and running in parallel to the earlier short-run supply curve, “S1.”
There is a straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D1.” This line intersects the supply curves in the middle of the graph. The intersection of D1 and the S1 supply curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point B.
There is a second straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D2,” running parallel to D1 and to its left, and representing an inward shift of demand for goods. This line intersects the supply curves on the left side of the graph. The intersection of D2 and the long-run supply curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point G. The bottleneck has resolved at point G, as there is no difference between long run and short run supply curves at this point. Though the quantity at G is little changed from the quantity at point B, the price has fallen precipitously.
Right panel: Services Demand Shifts Outward, Supply Shifts Outward.
It has a vertical axis on the left for prices (P) and a horizontal axis on the bottom for quantities (Q).
There is a straight, slightly upward sloping, dashed green line, labeled “Long-run supply.” There is also a solid green line, labeled “S1.” This solid green line overlaps with the long-run supply curve on the left side of the graph, but then is kinked just a little to the right of that point, diverging from the long-run supply curve by rising more steeply. There is also another short-run supply curve diverging from long run supply, represented by a solid green line labeled “S2,” representing an outward shift of supply, and running in parallel to the earlier short-run supply curve, “S1.”
There is a straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D1.” This line intersects the supply curves towards the left of the graph. The intersection of D1 and the S1 supply curve is represented by a red dot and labeled as point B1.
There is a second straight, downward sloping, solid blue line labeled “D2,” running parallel to D1 and to its right, and representing an outward shift of demand for services. This line intersects the supply curves on the right side of the graph. The intersection of D2 and S2 is represented by a red dot and labeled as point B2. The bottleneck remains at point B2, as there remains a difference between long run and short run supply curves at this point. Though the price at B2 is little changed from the price at point B1, the quantity has increased significantly.