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How Can We Measure the Value of a Home? Comparing Model-Based Estimates with Owner-Occupant Estimates Accessible Data
Figure 1: Distributions of (Owner Valuation/Sales Price) and (AVM/Sales Price) for Homes Sold 2 to 4 Months Later
Distributions of (Owner Valuation/Sales Price) and (AVM/Sales Price) for Homes Sold 2 to 4 Months Later. One Panel, two series. X axis is the ratio of the valuation measure to the sales price, Y axis plots the kernel density estimate of the ratio. Vertical lines at x=0.9 and x=1.1 demarcate the region with 10 percent of either side of 1.
Series 1: (Owner Valuation/Sales Price) A smooth distribution with a peak very close 1 (on the x-axis). The distribution is skewed, with more values far above 1 than far below. The distribution has two "humps" at around 0.75 and 1.5, which are the approximate values at which outliers were top and bottom coded.
Series 2: (AVM/Sales Price) A smooth distribution with a peak very close 1 (on the x-axis). The distribution is skewed, with more values far above 1 than far below. The distribution has two "humps" at around 0.78 and 1.7, which are the approximate values at which outliers were top and bottom coded.
Series 2 is more disperse than Series 1 -- the peak of series 2 at x=1 is below the peak of series 1, also near x=1. Series 2 is always greater than series 1 for values of x below 0.9 and greater than 1.1.
Note: kernel=epanechnikov, bandwidth=0.0200
Source: Authors’ calculations based on the 2014 ACS, AVM data, and tax assessor data.
Figure 2: Distributions of (Owner Valuation/Adjusted Sales Price) and (AVM/Adjusted Sales Price) for Homes Sold in 2016
Distributions of (Owner Valuation/Adjusted Sales Price) and (AVM/Adjusted Sales Price) for Homes Sold in 2016. One Panel, two series. X axis is the ratio of the valuation measure to the adjusted sales price, Y axis plots the kernel density estimate of the ratio. Vertical lines at x=0.9 and x=1.1 demarcate the region with 10 percent of either side of 1.
Series 1: (Owner Valuation/Adjusted Sales Price) A smooth distribution with a peak slightly above 1 (on the x-axis). The distribution is skewed, with more values far above 1 than far below. The distribution has two "humps" at around 0.7 and 1.55, which are the approximate values at which outliers were top and bottom coded.
Series 2: (AVM/Sales Price) A smooth distribution with a peak very close 1 (on the x-axis). The distribution is skewed, with more values far above 1 than far below. The distribution has two "humps" at around 0.75 and 1.6, which are the approximate values at which outliers were top and bottom coded.
The two series show similar amounts of dispersion. Series 1 is lower (indicating less density) for values of x less than 1, while series 2 generally has slighly less density for values of x greater than 1.
Note: kernel=epanechnikov, bandwidth=0.0200
Source: Authors’ calculations based on the 2014 ACS, the Zillow House Value Index (ZHVI), AVM data, and tax assessor data.
Figure 3: Distributions of (Owner Valuation/AVM Estimate)
Distributions of (Owner Valuation/AVM Estimate). One Panel, two series. X axis is the ratio of the owner valuation measure to the AVM estimate, Y axis plots the kernel density estimate. Vertical lines at x=0.9 and x=1.1 demarcate the region with 10 percent of either side of 1.
Series 1: (Owner Valuation/AVM Estimate) A smooth distribution with a peak slightly above 1 (on the x-axis). The distribution is modestly skewed, with slightly more values far above 1 than far below. The distribution has two "humps" at around 0.7 and 1.45, which are the approximate values at which outliers were top and bottom coded.
Series 2: (Owner Valuation/AVM Estimate for homes sold in 2016) A smooth distribution with a peak slightly above 1 (on the x-axis). The distribution is modestly skewed, with slightly more values far above 1 than far below. The distribution has two "humps" at around 0.7 and 1.45, which are the approximate values at which outliers were top and bottom coded.
The two series peak at at very similar values of x, slightly above 1. Series 1 shows greater dispersion -- it is below series 2 for values of x between about 0.9 and 1.2 and above series 2 for values of x outside of this interval.
Note: kernel=epanechnikov, bandwidth=0.0200
Source: Authors’ calculations based on the 2014 ACS, AVM data, and tax assessor data.