Accessible Version
Delinquency Rates and the “Missing Originations” in the Auto Loan Market, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Auto Loan Delinquency Rates
This is a line chart with 1 line. The x-axis measures time in quarters and ranges from 2000Q1 to 2021Q3. The y-axis is the auto loan delinquency rate in percent. The line shows seasonally-adjusted quarterly delinquency rates. It starts at slightly above 3 percent in 2000, rises to just below 4 in 2002, falls to below 3 by 2005, rises to above 4.5 by 2010, then falls to just below 3 again by 2012. Subsequently, it rises slowly through 2017 and drops slightly by 2019. In 2020, the rate plummets to less than 2.5 before remaining approximately flat through 2021.
Note: Delinquency is at least 30 days past due, excluding severe derogatory loans. Delinquency rate is seasonally adjusted. Credit scores are lagged four quarters.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.
Figure 2. Total Originations
This is a line chart. The x-axis measures time in quarters and ranges from 2016Q1 to 2021Q2. The y-axis is total auto loan originations (in billions). Originations are approximately flat at $180 billion between 2016 and 2019, before dropping to less than $160 in 2020Q2, and then rebounding sharply to above 220 billion by 2021Q2.
Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. Last three quarters of data are partially estimated.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.
Figure 3. 12−Month Change in Originations
This is a line chart with 3 lines. Each line shows the 12-month decrease in originations. The y-axis is percent. The x-axis is credit score bins. The first bin is credit scores less than 480 and the highest bin is credit scores greater than 820. The rest of the bins 20-point bins between 480 and 820. The black, dashed line shows the 12-month change in originations from 2019Q2 to 2020Q2. The line is mainly below zero and the percent change in originations is lower in lower-credit score bins. The blue line is percent change from 2019Q4 to 2020Q4. This line is mainly higher than the black line for bins of 560 or higher and about the same as the black line for bins below 560. Finally, the red line shows the percent change in originations from 2020Q1 to 2021Q1. The red line lies much higher than the black and blue lines, with a percent change above 20 percent for bins higher than 620. However, the percent change for the lowest credit score bins remains below 0.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.
Figure 4. Share of Consumers with New Auto Loans, by Credit Score Bin and Quarter
This is a line chart with 5 panels. Each panel shows the share of consumers in the CCP that originated an auto loan in that quarter. The top left panel corresponds to quarter 1 and contains 3 lines: 2019, 2020, and 2021. The y-axis is in percent and the x-axis is credit score bins. The first bin is credit scores less than 480 and the highest bin is credit scores greater than 820. The rest of the bins 20-point bins between 480 and 820. The red line for 2019 forms an upside down U with approximately 4 percent of consumers originating new auto loans for the lowest-credit score bins, 6 percent for bins 600-660 and 3 percent for the highest credit score bins. The blue line for 2020 lies approximately a percentage point below the 2019 line. The black line for 2021 lies approximately along the 2020 line for bins lower than 600 and along the 2019 line for higher credit score bins.
The top right quarter for Q2 appears similarly, with the blue line for 2020 below the red line for 2021. However, the black line for 2021 lies along or even above the 2020 line for all credit score bins. The bottom panels for Q3 and Q4 look slightly different, with the blue line for 2020 below the red line for 2019 for the lowest credit score bins of below 600, but the two lines are very similar for higher credit score bins.
Note: The share of new auto loans is defined as the number of new loans originated divided by the number of consumers.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.
Figure 5. Delinquency Rate
This is a stacked bar chart. The y-axis is delinquency rate in percent and the x-axis is time in quarters from 2017Q1 to 2021Q3. Each bar consists of 2 stacked bars—a blue bar that shows the delinquency rate for loans older than 12 months and an white bar that shows the delinquency rate for loans younger than 12 months. The figure shows that starting in 2020Q2 and continuing through 2021Q3, the white bars contracted more than the blue bars.
Note: Delinquency is at least 30 days past due, excluding severe derogatory loans. Key identifies bar segments in the order of top to bottom.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.
Figure 6. Counterfactual Delinquency Rate
This is a line chart with 2 lines. The x-axis is the delinquency rate in percent. The y-axis is time in quarters from 2019Q1 to 2021Q3. The blue line shows the actual auto loan delinquency rate, which begins at around 2.8 percent in 2019Q1, rises to 3 percent by 2019Q4, then falls to about 2.2 percent by 2020Q2, rises to 2.6 percent by 2020Q4, then drops to below 2 percent by 2021Q2 before rebounding to 2.2 percent in 2021Q3.
The black line shows the counterfactual delinquency that would have occurred if delinquency rates on young auto loans of less than 12 months had followed the same trend as delinquency rates on older auto loans of more than 12 months. The black line begins in 2019Q4 and is above the blue line through 2021Q3, with the difference widening over time. By 2021Q3, the black counterfactual line is approximately 0.5 percentage points above the blue delinquency line.
Note: Not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.