Accessible Version
Developments in Chinese Chipmaking, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Global Chip Revenues by End Use
Percent | |
---|---|
Industrial electronics | 10.00 |
Consumer electronics | 9.00 |
Computing and data storage | 38.00 |
Communications technologies | 35.00 |
Automotive electronics | 8.00 |
Note: The data are for 2021. Legend entries appear in counterclockwise chart order.
Source: McKinsey & Company.
Figure 2. China's Progress in Chipmaking
(a) China Chipmaking Spending
Billion USD
Date | Equipment | Construction |
---|---|---|
6/1/2008 | 2.29 | 0.51 |
6/1/2009 | 1.10 | 0.80 |
6/1/2010 | 3.01 | 0.62 |
6/1/2011 | 3.74 | 0.30 |
6/1/2012 | 2.51 | 0.44 |
6/1/2013 | 3.48 | 1.93 |
6/1/2014 | 4.52 | 0.47 |
6/1/2015 | 5.29 | 0.73 |
6/1/2016 | 6.39 | 2.23 |
6/1/2017 | 6.70 | 6.38 |
6/1/2018 | 11.38 | 7.30 |
6/1/2019 | 12.03 | 4.74 |
6/1/2020 | 16.50 | 1.77 |
6/1/2021 | 21.76 | 3.92 |
6/1/2022 | 22.35 | 8.28 |
6/1/2023 | 35.51 | 13.79 |
Note: The data extend through 2023.
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast; authors’ calculations.
(b) Global Wafer Capacity
Percent
Date | U.S. | China | Taiwan | Korea |
---|---|---|---|---|
2/15/1996 | 24.80 | 1.62 | 8.20 | 9.19 |
5/16/1996 | 24.75 | 1.57 | 8.53 | 9.50 |
8/16/1996 | 24.38 | 1.54 | 8.27 | 9.35 |
11/16/1996 | 24.24 | 1.53 | 8.11 | 9.31 |
2/14/1997 | 24.06 | 1.76 | 8.56 | 10.22 |
5/16/1997 | 24.00 | 1.75 | 9.48 | 10.30 |
8/16/1997 | 24.14 | 1.76 | 10.13 | 10.24 |
11/16/1997 | 24.76 | 1.76 | 11.84 | 9.74 |
2/14/1998 | 23.77 | 2.22 | 12.39 | 11.03 |
5/16/1998 | 23.66 | 2.42 | 12.47 | 11.38 |
8/16/1998 | 23.16 | 2.41 | 12.63 | 11.56 |
11/16/1998 | 22.94 | 2.36 | 12.74 | 11.59 |
2/14/1999 | 25.69 | 2.57 | 13.39 | 11.69 |
5/16/1999 | 25.99 | 2.59 | 12.38 | 12.22 |
8/16/1999 | 26.02 | 2.55 | 12.43 | 12.47 |
11/16/1999 | 26.19 | 2.45 | 12.27 | 12.71 |
2/15/2000 | 24.11 | 2.43 | 13.86 | 12.57 |
5/16/2000 | 24.07 | 2.33 | 13.47 | 12.66 |
8/16/2000 | 24.15 | 2.32 | 13.52 | 12.52 |
11/16/2000 | 23.90 | 2.54 | 13.22 | 11.85 |
2/14/2001 | 23.10 | 2.61 | 14.55 | 11.44 |
5/16/2001 | 22.68 | 2.66 | 14.97 | 11.67 |
8/16/2001 | 22.53 | 2.66 | 15.12 | 11.70 |
11/16/2001 | 22.58 | 2.47 | 14.41 | 12.01 |
2/14/2002 | 22.90 | 3.18 | 14.53 | 12.56 |
5/16/2002 | 22.97 | 3.25 | 14.61 | 12.59 |
8/16/2002 | 22.99 | 3.31 | 14.64 | 12.90 |
11/16/2002 | 22.83 | 3.30 | 14.76 | 13.15 |
2/14/2003 | 23.08 | 5.03 | 13.70 | 11.60 |
5/16/2003 | 23.08 | 4.90 | 13.65 | 11.57 |
8/16/2003 | 21.77 | 5.21 | 13.46 | 11.77 |
11/16/2003 | 21.39 | 5.48 | 13.26 | 11.24 |
2/15/2004 | 19.93 | 6.61 | 14.68 | 12.00 |
5/16/2004 | 20.27 | 6.43 | 15.04 | 11.78 |
8/16/2004 | 20.25 | 6.13 | 15.13 | 11.77 |
11/16/2004 | 19.98 | 6.14 | 15.21 | 12.04 |
2/14/2005 | 19.18 | 6.11 | 17.32 | 11.22 |
5/16/2005 | 19.33 | 6.35 | 17.34 | 11.14 |
8/16/2005 | 19.45 | 6.30 | 17.46 | 11.09 |
11/16/2005 | 19.16 | 6.17 | 17.16 | 11.19 |
2/14/2006 | 18.85 | 7.58 | 18.42 | 11.56 |
5/16/2006 | 18.56 | 7.40 | 18.35 | 13.47 |
8/16/2006 | 18.64 | 7.44 | 16.69 | 14.82 |
11/16/2006 | 18.74 | 7.31 | 16.34 | 14.41 |
2/14/2007 | 18.00 | 7.56 | 16.26 | 15.41 |
5/16/2007 | 17.59 | 7.48 | 16.03 | 16.57 |
8/16/2007 | 17.19 | 7.40 | 15.81 | 17.68 |
11/16/2007 | 16.59 | 8.08 | 16.61 | 17.76 |
2/15/2008 | 16.00 | 8.76 | 17.40 | 17.85 |
5/16/2008 | 15.95 | 8.86 | 17.46 | 18.32 |
8/16/2008 | 15.91 | 9.06 | 17.22 | 18.41 |
11/16/2008 | 15.82 | 9.35 | 17.57 | 17.28 |
2/14/2009 | 15.85 | 9.46 | 17.26 | 17.35 |
5/16/2009 | 15.28 | 9.31 | 17.79 | 17.08 |
8/16/2009 | 15.06 | 9.55 | 17.83 | 16.81 |
11/16/2009 | 13.98 | 9.70 | 18.12 | 17.45 |
2/14/2010 | 13.91 | 9.79 | 18.25 | 17.60 |
5/16/2010 | 13.72 | 9.74 | 18.45 | 17.84 |
8/16/2010 | 13.45 | 9.83 | 18.34 | 18.16 |
11/16/2010 | 13.35 | 9.85 | 18.34 | 18.03 |
2/14/2011 | 13.52 | 10.20 | 18.83 | 16.80 |
5/16/2011 | 13.59 | 10.39 | 19.08 | 16.75 |
8/16/2011 | 13.46 | 10.58 | 18.85 | 16.75 |
11/16/2011 | 13.35 | 10.75 | 18.54 | 17.04 |
2/15/2012 | 13.40 | 10.89 | 18.77 | 16.67 |
5/16/2012 | 13.57 | 11.15 | 18.71 | 17.17 |
8/16/2012 | 13.27 | 11.16 | 18.90 | 17.70 |
11/16/2012 | 12.78 | 11.40 | 18.60 | 18.38 |
2/14/2013 | 12.89 | 11.45 | 18.54 | 18.58 |
5/16/2013 | 12.83 | 11.57 | 18.41 | 18.84 |
8/16/2013 | 12.73 | 11.60 | 18.66 | 18.88 |
11/16/2013 | 12.58 | 11.67 | 18.78 | 19.04 |
2/14/2014 | 12.58 | 12.21 | 18.65 | 19.03 |
5/16/2014 | 12.61 | 12.45 | 18.80 | 19.03 |
8/16/2014 | 12.64 | 12.58 | 19.38 | 18.89 |
11/16/2014 | 12.64 | 12.79 | 19.38 | 18.87 |
2/14/2015 | 12.83 | 13.00 | 19.55 | 18.79 |
5/16/2015 | 12.81 | 13.17 | 19.62 | 18.81 |
8/16/2015 | 12.75 | 13.49 | 19.75 | 18.59 |
11/16/2015 | 12.65 | 13.59 | 19.76 | 18.59 |
2/15/2016 | 12.49 | 13.90 | 19.77 | 18.19 |
5/16/2016 | 12.39 | 14.32 | 19.69 | 17.92 |
8/16/2016 | 12.37 | 14.54 | 19.83 | 17.74 |
11/16/2016 | 12.31 | 14.72 | 19.84 | 17.53 |
2/14/2017 | 12.25 | 14.96 | 20.08 | 17.34 |
5/16/2017 | 12.15 | 15.22 | 20.22 | 17.49 |
8/16/2017 | 12.00 | 15.41 | 20.12 | 17.98 |
11/16/2017 | 11.81 | 15.47 | 20.17 | 18.44 |
2/14/2018 | 11.58 | 15.51 | 20.33 | 18.73 |
5/16/2018 | 11.34 | 15.64 | 20.25 | 19.06 |
8/16/2018 | 11.23 | 15.86 | 20.01 | 19.38 |
11/16/2018 | 11.18 | 16.10 | 19.92 | 19.61 |
2/14/2019 | 11.19 | 16.44 | 20.01 | 19.44 |
5/16/2019 | 11.21 | 16.79 | 20.00 | 19.29 |
8/16/2019 | 11.26 | 17.10 | 20.00 | 19.07 |
11/16/2019 | 11.25 | 17.47 | 20.07 | 18.81 |
2/15/2020 | 11.04 | 18.03 | 19.98 | 18.75 |
5/16/2020 | 11.07 | 18.38 | 19.95 | 18.59 |
8/16/2020 | 10.97 | 19.01 | 19.86 | 18.32 |
11/16/2020 | 10.92 | 19.54 | 19.80 | 18.07 |
2/14/2021 | 10.67 | 20.58 | 19.50 | 17.98 |
5/16/2021 | 10.49 | 21.62 | 19.24 | 17.89 |
8/16/2021 | 9.76 | 22.54 | 19.23 | 17.86 |
11/16/2021 | 9.55 | 23.20 | 19.05 | 17.76 |
2/14/2022 | 9.70 | 23.38 | 18.81 | 17.36 |
5/16/2022 | 9.69 | 23.74 | 18.70 | 17.39 |
8/16/2022 | 9.65 | 24.12 | 18.61 | 17.35 |
11/16/2022 | 9.32 | 24.47 | 18.66 | 17.39 |
2/14/2023 | 9.28 | 25.07 | 18.71 | 17.14 |
5/16/2023 | 9.28 | 25.40 | 18.73 | 16.95 |
8/16/2023 | 9.24 | 25.83 | 18.71 | 16.81 |
Note: Capacity in other sizes is standardized to the equivalent of an 8-inch wafer. The data prior to 2008 from Gartner. The data extend through 2023:Q3.
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast; Gartner; authors’ calculations.
(c) Capacity by Node Group
Percent share
Geometry new | China | Taiwan | Korea | U.S. | ROW |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Legacy | 30.19 | 15.24 | 5.50 | 11.66 | 37.40 |
Advanced | 17.57 | 19.54 | 34.39 | 6.90 | 21.60 |
Cutting-edge | 0.00 | 51.85 | 18.17 | 14.83 | 15.16 |
Note: Legacy nodes are 28 nm and above, advanced nodes are 6 to 27 nm, and cutting-edge nodes are 5 nm and below. Global production share of legacy nodes is 69%, advanced nodes is 37%, and cutting-edge nodes is 4%. The data are for 2023:Q3 and by country of production.
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast; authors’ calculations.
Figure 3. Impact of Sanctions on China’s Overall Access to Chips
(a) China Chip Imports
Billion USD; 3-month moving average
Date | Imports | Trend line |
---|---|---|
1/16/2010 | 11.94 | 12.41 |
2/16/2010 | 12.32 | 12.53 |
3/16/2010 | 12.48 | 12.63 |
4/16/2010 | 12.94 | 12.74 |
5/16/2010 | 13.12 | 12.85 |
6/16/2010 | 13.26 | 12.97 |
7/16/2010 | 13.17 | 13.08 |
8/16/2010 | 13.18 | 13.19 |
9/16/2010 | 13.13 | 13.30 |
10/16/2010 | 13.46 | 13.41 |
11/16/2010 | 13.46 | 13.53 |
12/16/2010 | 13.43 | 13.64 |
1/16/2011 | 14.05 | 13.75 |
2/16/2011 | 13.88 | 13.86 |
3/16/2011 | 14.32 | 13.97 |
4/16/2011 | 13.64 | 14.08 |
5/16/2011 | 14.12 | 14.19 |
6/16/2011 | 13.93 | 14.30 |
7/16/2011 | 14.03 | 14.41 |
8/16/2011 | 14.13 | 14.53 |
9/16/2011 | 13.99 | 14.64 |
10/16/2011 | 14.08 | 14.75 |
11/16/2011 | 14.02 | 14.86 |
12/16/2011 | 14.48 | 14.97 |
1/16/2012 | 13.81 | 15.09 |
2/16/2012 | 14.93 | 15.20 |
3/16/2012 | 15.00 | 15.31 |
4/16/2012 | 15.10 | 15.42 |
5/16/2012 | 14.20 | 15.53 |
6/16/2012 | 14.40 | 15.65 |
7/16/2012 | 15.51 | 15.76 |
8/16/2012 | 16.14 | 15.87 |
9/16/2012 | 16.95 | 15.98 |
10/16/2012 | 17.35 | 16.09 |
11/16/2012 | 17.50 | 16.21 |
12/16/2012 | 17.50 | 16.32 |
1/16/2013 | 18.82 | 16.43 |
2/16/2013 | 19.65 | 16.54 |
3/16/2013 | 22.39 | 16.65 |
4/16/2013 | 22.74 | 16.76 |
5/16/2013 | 22.25 | 16.87 |
6/16/2013 | 18.87 | 16.98 |
7/16/2013 | 18.02 | 17.09 |
8/16/2013 | 17.79 | 17.21 |
9/16/2013 | 18.23 | 17.32 |
10/16/2013 | 17.67 | 17.43 |
11/16/2013 | 17.63 | 17.54 |
12/16/2013 | 17.65 | 17.65 |
1/16/2014 | 17.48 | 17.77 |
2/16/2014 | 17.52 | 17.88 |
3/16/2014 | 17.33 | 17.98 |
4/16/2014 | 17.57 | 18.10 |
5/16/2014 | 17.69 | 18.21 |
6/16/2014 | 18.00 | 18.32 |
7/16/2014 | 18.21 | 18.43 |
8/16/2014 | 17.94 | 18.54 |
9/16/2014 | 18.34 | 18.66 |
10/16/2014 | 18.51 | 18.77 |
11/16/2014 | 18.55 | 18.88 |
12/16/2014 | 18.86 | 18.99 |
1/16/2015 | 18.61 | 19.11 |
2/16/2015 | 19.00 | 19.22 |
3/16/2015 | 18.39 | 19.32 |
4/16/2015 | 18.29 | 19.44 |
5/16/2015 | 18.23 | 19.55 |
6/16/2015 | 18.56 | 19.66 |
7/16/2015 | 18.92 | 19.77 |
8/16/2015 | 18.99 | 19.88 |
9/16/2015 | 18.72 | 20.00 |
10/16/2015 | 18.90 | 20.11 |
11/16/2015 | 19.61 | 20.22 |
12/16/2015 | 20.85 | 20.33 |
1/16/2016 | 19.85 | 20.44 |
2/16/2016 | 18.73 | 20.56 |
3/16/2016 | 17.74 | 20.66 |
4/16/2016 | 18.55 | 20.78 |
5/16/2016 | 19.00 | 20.89 |
6/16/2016 | 19.03 | 21.00 |
7/16/2016 | 18.74 | 21.11 |
8/16/2016 | 19.02 | 21.22 |
9/16/2016 | 19.06 | 21.34 |
10/16/2016 | 19.38 | 21.45 |
11/16/2016 | 19.35 | 21.56 |
12/16/2016 | 20.40 | 21.67 |
1/16/2017 | 19.59 | 21.79 |
2/16/2017 | 20.72 | 21.90 |
3/16/2017 | 19.46 | 22.00 |
4/16/2017 | 20.28 | 22.12 |
5/16/2017 | 19.39 | 22.23 |
6/16/2017 | 20.36 | 22.34 |
7/16/2017 | 21.07 | 22.45 |
8/16/2017 | 21.88 | 22.56 |
9/16/2017 | 22.22 | 22.68 |
10/16/2017 | 23.02 | 22.79 |
11/16/2017 | 23.74 | 22.90 |
12/16/2017 | 24.03 | 23.01 |
1/16/2018 | 24.97 | 23.12 |
2/16/2018 | 25.42 | 23.24 |
3/16/2018 | 26.40 | 23.34 |
4/16/2018 | 26.24 | 23.45 |
5/16/2018 | 26.75 | 23.56 |
6/16/2018 | 26.43 | 23.68 |
7/16/2018 | 27.13 | 23.79 |
8/16/2018 | 26.39 | 23.90 |
9/16/2018 | 27.08 | 24.01 |
10/16/2018 | 27.20 | 24.12 |
11/16/2018 | 26.35 | 24.24 |
12/16/2018 | 23.87 | 24.35 |
1/16/2019 | 22.52 | 24.46 |
2/16/2019 | 22.54 | 24.57 |
3/16/2019 | 23.96 | 24.68 |
4/16/2019 | 24.40 | 24.79 |
5/16/2019 | 25.03 | 24.90 |
6/16/2019 | 25.08 | 25.01 |
7/16/2019 | 25.22 | 25.12 |
8/16/2019 | 25.73 | 25.24 |
9/16/2019 | 25.82 | 25.35 |
10/16/2019 | 25.94 | 25.46 |
11/16/2019 | 26.25 | 25.58 |
12/16/2019 | 26.64 | 25.69 |
1/16/2020 | 25.34 | 25.80 |
2/16/2020 | 25.50 | 25.91 |
3/16/2020 | 26.42 | 26.02 |
4/16/2020 | 28.40 | 26.13 |
5/16/2020 | 28.47 | 26.24 |
6/16/2020 | 28.50 | 26.36 |
7/16/2020 | 28.70 | 26.47 |
8/16/2020 | 29.30 | 26.58 |
9/16/2020 | 30.40 | 26.69 |
10/16/2020 | 30.90 | 26.80 |
11/16/2020 | 31.29 | 26.92 |
12/16/2020 | 31.38 | 27.03 |
1/16/2021 | 32.18 | 27.14 |
2/16/2021 | 33.03 | 27.25 |
3/16/2021 | 33.87 | 27.36 |
4/16/2021 | 34.53 | 27.47 |
5/16/2021 | 35.24 | 27.58 |
6/16/2021 | 36.07 | 27.69 |
7/16/2021 | 36.28 | 27.80 |
8/16/2021 | 36.68 | 27.92 |
9/16/2021 | 36.20 | 28.03 |
10/16/2021 | 35.65 | 28.14 |
11/16/2021 | 36.34 | 28.26 |
12/16/2021 | 37.87 | 28.37 |
1/16/2022 | 39.62 | 28.48 |
2/16/2022 | 39.86 | 28.59 |
3/16/2022 | 38.72 | 28.69 |
4/16/2022 | 37.97 | 28.81 |
5/16/2022 | 36.50 | 28.92 |
6/16/2022 | 35.77 | 29.03 |
7/16/2022 | 35.13 | 29.14 |
8/16/2022 | 34.23 | 29.26 |
9/16/2022 | 34.02 | 29.37 |
10/16/2022 | 33.50 | 29.48 |
11/16/2022 | 32.00 | 29.59 |
12/16/2022 | 31.00 | 29.70 |
1/16/2023 | 28.12 | 29.82 |
2/16/2023 | 28.78 | 29.93 |
3/16/2023 | 28.23 | 30.03 |
4/16/2023 | 29.59 | 30.15 |
5/16/2023 | 29.17 | 30.26 |
6/16/2023 | 29.29 | 30.37 |
7/16/2023 | 29.42 | 30.48 |
8/16/2023 | 29.63 | 30.59 |
9/16/2023 | 29.13 | 30.71 |
10/16/2023 | 29.38 | 30.82 |
11/16/2023 | 29.75 | 30.93 |
12/16/2023 | 30.26 | 31.04 |
1/16/2024 | 30.80 | 31.15 |
2/16/2024 | 30.74 | 31.27 |
Note: The data extend through February 2024. The dotted line shows pre-pandemic trend line. Vertical line indicates U.S. export controls in October 2022.
Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.
(b) Taiwan Chip Exports
Oct. 2022 = 100; 3-month moving average
Date | China | Rest of world |
---|---|---|
1/15/2010 | 22.14 | 32.61 |
2/15/2010 | 23.62 | 34.31 |
3/18/2010 | 24.39 | 34.47 |
4/15/2010 | 25.32 | 35.27 |
5/16/2010 | 24.76 | 34.79 |
6/15/2010 | 24.73 | 35.71 |
7/16/2010 | 24.46 | 36.02 |
8/15/2010 | 24.60 | 37.00 |
9/15/2010 | 24.56 | 37.18 |
10/16/2010 | 23.99 | 37.70 |
11/15/2010 | 25.10 | 38.27 |
12/16/2010 | 25.79 | 38.75 |
1/15/2011 | 27.50 | 39.37 |
2/15/2011 | 28.71 | 40.33 |
3/18/2011 | 29.96 | 41.45 |
4/15/2011 | 30.18 | 41.49 |
5/16/2011 | 29.90 | 41.44 |
6/15/2011 | 29.29 | 40.48 |
7/16/2011 | 28.69 | 40.09 |
8/15/2011 | 28.48 | 40.42 |
9/15/2011 | 27.48 | 40.08 |
10/16/2011 | 27.00 | 39.79 |
11/15/2011 | 26.43 | 38.68 |
12/16/2011 | 26.55 | 38.44 |
1/15/2012 | 26.61 | 39.20 |
2/15/2012 | 23.99 | 37.29 |
3/17/2012 | 25.80 | 39.58 |
4/15/2012 | 26.09 | 39.94 |
5/16/2012 | 28.54 | 41.96 |
6/15/2012 | 26.88 | 40.26 |
7/16/2012 | 27.14 | 40.13 |
8/15/2012 | 26.97 | 40.48 |
9/15/2012 | 26.86 | 40.83 |
10/16/2012 | 27.09 | 41.65 |
11/15/2012 | 26.51 | 41.42 |
12/16/2012 | 26.21 | 42.00 |
1/15/2013 | 25.87 | 41.77 |
2/15/2013 | 26.22 | 42.23 |
3/18/2013 | 26.08 | 41.20 |
4/15/2013 | 26.26 | 42.03 |
5/16/2013 | 26.63 | 42.68 |
6/15/2013 | 27.45 | 45.31 |
7/16/2013 | 28.43 | 46.03 |
8/15/2013 | 29.08 | 45.81 |
9/15/2013 | 29.46 | 44.70 |
10/16/2013 | 28.75 | 44.04 |
11/15/2013 | 28.06 | 44.47 |
12/16/2013 | 28.78 | 45.54 |
1/15/2014 | 29.54 | 45.65 |
2/15/2014 | 30.78 | 45.80 |
3/18/2014 | 30.97 | 45.73 |
4/15/2014 | 31.29 | 46.32 |
5/16/2014 | 32.10 | 47.92 |
6/15/2014 | 33.23 | 48.92 |
7/16/2014 | 34.39 | 49.78 |
8/15/2014 | 34.34 | 50.07 |
9/15/2014 | 33.91 | 51.42 |
10/16/2014 | 32.89 | 51.94 |
11/15/2014 | 32.03 | 52.69 |
12/16/2014 | 31.50 | 52.19 |
1/15/2015 | 31.16 | 52.30 |
2/15/2015 | 31.84 | 52.34 |
3/18/2015 | 31.82 | 51.62 |
4/15/2015 | 31.55 | 50.63 |
5/16/2015 | 31.49 | 49.49 |
6/15/2015 | 31.30 | 49.02 |
7/16/2015 | 31.57 | 47.75 |
8/15/2015 | 31.87 | 47.78 |
9/15/2015 | 31.30 | 47.20 |
10/16/2015 | 30.11 | 47.65 |
11/15/2015 | 28.92 | 47.59 |
12/16/2015 | 28.26 | 46.93 |
1/15/2016 | 28.81 | 46.89 |
2/15/2016 | 29.81 | 46.71 |
3/17/2016 | 30.43 | 47.63 |
4/15/2016 | 31.21 | 48.30 |
5/16/2016 | 32.09 | 47.94 |
6/15/2016 | 33.44 | 48.08 |
7/16/2016 | 34.58 | 49.04 |
8/15/2016 | 35.33 | 50.41 |
9/15/2016 | 37.60 | 51.43 |
10/16/2016 | 40.36 | 51.05 |
11/15/2016 | 44.38 | 50.39 |
12/16/2016 | 46.17 | 50.87 |
1/15/2017 | 45.94 | 52.12 |
2/15/2017 | 43.77 | 52.58 |
3/18/2017 | 43.85 | 54.26 |
4/15/2017 | 44.80 | 54.58 |
5/16/2017 | 44.28 | 55.11 |
6/15/2017 | 43.91 | 52.18 |
7/16/2017 | 47.34 | 52.23 |
8/15/2017 | 48.67 | 53.03 |
9/15/2017 | 49.53 | 56.00 |
10/16/2017 | 48.19 | 57.46 |
11/15/2017 | 50.07 | 57.88 |
12/16/2017 | 52.12 | 58.61 |
1/15/2018 | 54.58 | 59.24 |
2/15/2018 | 53.93 | 59.38 |
3/18/2018 | 51.38 | 57.03 |
4/15/2018 | 58.09 | 54.93 |
5/16/2018 | 58.32 | 55.32 |
6/15/2018 | 60.21 | 56.65 |
7/16/2018 | 50.29 | 56.45 |
8/15/2018 | 51.24 | 55.81 |
9/15/2018 | 51.83 | 54.95 |
10/16/2018 | 54.46 | 54.92 |
11/15/2018 | 55.41 | 54.44 |
12/16/2018 | 55.45 | 54.64 |
1/15/2019 | 55.10 | 54.50 |
2/15/2019 | 53.88 | 55.30 |
3/18/2019 | 48.70 | 53.94 |
4/15/2019 | 46.86 | 54.46 |
5/16/2019 | 47.24 | 52.76 |
6/15/2019 | 53.55 | 54.64 |
7/16/2019 | 55.88 | 54.14 |
8/15/2019 | 59.49 | 54.93 |
9/15/2019 | 61.37 | 55.41 |
10/16/2019 | 62.64 | 56.06 |
11/15/2019 | 62.58 | 57.16 |
12/16/2019 | 63.60 | 57.80 |
1/15/2020 | 63.06 | 60.16 |
2/15/2020 | 61.96 | 60.00 |
3/17/2020 | 63.32 | 62.71 |
4/15/2020 | 66.52 | 62.27 |
5/16/2020 | 69.29 | 64.01 |
6/15/2020 | 69.81 | 61.58 |
7/16/2020 | 72.84 | 62.24 |
8/15/2020 | 73.25 | 62.91 |
9/15/2020 | 77.15 | 64.76 |
10/16/2020 | 76.74 | 67.24 |
11/15/2020 | 77.90 | 70.17 |
12/16/2020 | 77.49 | 71.97 |
1/15/2021 | 77.77 | 73.04 |
2/15/2021 | 82.15 | 77.10 |
3/18/2021 | 79.46 | 80.39 |
4/15/2021 | 82.63 | 80.90 |
5/16/2021 | 80.43 | 81.69 |
6/15/2021 | 83.28 | 82.49 |
7/16/2021 | 92.62 | 82.06 |
8/15/2021 | 93.40 | 83.36 |
9/15/2021 | 92.60 | 86.14 |
10/16/2021 | 86.85 | 91.69 |
11/15/2021 | 82.47 | 90.90 |
12/16/2021 | 86.98 | 92.85 |
1/15/2022 | 85.60 | 95.13 |
2/15/2022 | 97.30 | 99.61 |
3/18/2022 | 105.10 | 105.77 |
4/15/2022 | 108.81 | 109.87 |
5/16/2022 | 112.60 | 110.23 |
6/15/2022 | 107.73 | 107.05 |
7/16/2022 | 105.04 | 106.20 |
8/15/2022 | 102.48 | 105.02 |
9/15/2022 | 102.60 | 102.75 |
10/16/2022 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
11/15/2022 | 95.78 | 99.66 |
12/16/2022 | 88.69 | 99.50 |
1/15/2023 | 90.39 | 98.73 |
2/15/2023 | 84.43 | 94.52 |
3/18/2023 | 84.48 | 95.79 |
4/15/2023 | 77.22 | 97.85 |
5/16/2023 | 78.98 | 104.30 |
6/15/2023 | 79.70 | 103.98 |
7/16/2023 | 81.90 | 97.36 |
8/15/2023 | 86.58 | 93.67 |
9/15/2023 | 83.83 | 92.17 |
10/16/2023 | 83.08 | 98.07 |
11/15/2023 | 80.64 | 97.41 |
12/16/2023 | 84.28 | 96.19 |
1/15/2024 | 85.52 | 96.49 |
2/15/2024 | 86.16 | 95.08 |
Note: The data extend through February 2024. Vertical line indicates U.S. export controls in October 2022.
Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.
Figure 4. Chinese Imports of Chip Manufacturing Equipment
Jan. 2023 = 100; 3-month moving average
Make Full ScreenDate | Japan | Netherlands |
---|---|---|
1/16/2019 | 80.34 | 47.60 |
2/16/2019 | 87.75 | 50.49 |
3/16/2019 | 102.46 | 61.90 |
4/16/2019 | 104.55 | 96.10 |
5/16/2019 | 103.89 | 104.21 |
6/16/2019 | 101.41 | 92.12 |
7/16/2019 | 109.20 | 68.89 |
8/16/2019 | 115.51 | 60.88 |
9/16/2019 | 110.63 | 79.16 |
10/16/2019 | 108.60 | 114.17 |
11/16/2019 | 106.59 | 130.94 |
12/16/2019 | 109.88 | 163.74 |
1/16/2020 | 101.67 | 149.35 |
2/16/2020 | 93.40 | 142.86 |
3/16/2020 | 97.43 | 105.07 |
4/16/2020 | 104.55 | 120.75 |
5/16/2020 | 107.91 | 154.94 |
6/16/2020 | 95.28 | 216.78 |
7/16/2020 | 98.85 | 189.79 |
8/16/2020 | 117.77 | 242.76 |
9/16/2020 | 138.16 | 212.39 |
10/16/2020 | 144.25 | 196.65 |
11/16/2020 | 136.21 | 155.44 |
12/16/2020 | 128.42 | 126.61 |
1/16/2021 | 130.86 | 189.53 |
2/16/2021 | 130.92 | 195.93 |
3/16/2021 | 139.47 | 218.64 |
4/16/2021 | 145.54 | 191.11 |
5/16/2021 | 155.64 | 192.23 |
6/16/2021 | 166.91 | 206.21 |
7/16/2021 | 166.35 | 193.89 |
8/16/2021 | 159.98 | 159.21 |
9/16/2021 | 147.33 | 125.96 |
10/16/2021 | 147.16 | 122.96 |
11/16/2021 | 157.14 | 159.37 |
12/16/2021 | 161.43 | 258.65 |
1/16/2022 | 161.57 | 250.42 |
2/16/2022 | 148.89 | 246.37 |
3/16/2022 | 144.17 | 201.84 |
4/16/2022 | 137.18 | 242.87 |
5/16/2022 | 128.73 | 220.56 |
6/16/2022 | 120.83 | 170.98 |
7/16/2022 | 118.49 | 120.56 |
8/16/2022 | 125.43 | 127.85 |
9/16/2022 | 141.91 | 120.63 |
10/16/2022 | 138.37 | 179.23 |
11/16/2022 | 130.22 | 148.29 |
12/16/2022 | 104.06 | 153.27 |
1/16/2023 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
2/16/2023 | 106.21 | 117.13 |
3/16/2023 | 121.38 | 143.14 |
4/16/2023 | 130.48 | 156.71 |
5/16/2023 | 118.53 | 199.92 |
6/16/2023 | 108.55 | 350.37 |
7/16/2023 | 114.76 | 460.54 |
8/16/2023 | 126.37 | 545.22 |
9/16/2023 | 152.03 | 644.47 |
10/16/2023 | 144.62 | 656.65 |
11/16/2023 | 159.77 | 668.74 |
12/16/2023 | 161.97 | 634.57 |
Note: The data extend through December 2023. First vertical line indicates restrictions announced in January 2023, second vertical line indicates restrictions enacted on October 2023.
Source: UN Comtrade; authors’ calculations.
Figure 5. Minimum Chip Production Node
Node range (nm)
Make Full ScreenNode range | SMIC (China) | TSMC (Taiwan) |
---|---|---|
34-46 | 2/15/2014 | |
21-33 | 11/15/2014 | |
17-21 | 2/15/2018 | 2/15/2014 |
11-16 | 2/15/2018 | 11/15/2014 |
8-10 | 2/15/2018 | 8/15/2016 |
6-7 | 2/15/2022 | 5/16/2018 |
4-5 | 8/15/2019 | |
<3 | 8/15/2021 |
Note: Units are adjusted to 8-inch wafers per month.
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast; authors' calculations.