Developments in Chinese Chipmaking, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Global Chip Revenues by End Use
Make Full Screen
  Percent
Industrial electronics 10.00
Consumer electronics 9.00
Computing and data storage 38.00
Communications technologies 35.00
Automotive electronics 8.00

Note: The data are for 2021. Legend entries appear in counterclockwise chart order.

Source: McKinsey & Company.

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Figure 2. China's Progress in Chipmaking

(a) China Chipmaking Spending
Billion USD

Make Full Screen
Date Equipment Construction
6/1/2008 2.29 0.51
6/1/2009 1.10 0.80
6/1/2010 3.01 0.62
6/1/2011 3.74 0.30
6/1/2012 2.51 0.44
6/1/2013 3.48 1.93
6/1/2014 4.52 0.47
6/1/2015 5.29 0.73
6/1/2016 6.39 2.23
6/1/2017 6.70 6.38
6/1/2018 11.38 7.30
6/1/2019 12.03 4.74
6/1/2020 16.50 1.77
6/1/2021 21.76 3.92
6/1/2022 22.35 8.28
6/1/2023 35.51 13.79

Note: The data extend through 2023.

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast; authors’ calculations.

(b) Global Wafer Capacity
Percent

Make Full Screen
Date U.S. China Taiwan Korea
2/15/1996 24.80 1.62 8.20 9.19
5/16/1996 24.75 1.57 8.53 9.50
8/16/1996 24.38 1.54 8.27 9.35
11/16/1996 24.24 1.53 8.11 9.31
2/14/1997 24.06 1.76 8.56 10.22
5/16/1997 24.00 1.75 9.48 10.30
8/16/1997 24.14 1.76 10.13 10.24
11/16/1997 24.76 1.76 11.84 9.74
2/14/1998 23.77 2.22 12.39 11.03
5/16/1998 23.66 2.42 12.47 11.38
8/16/1998 23.16 2.41 12.63 11.56
11/16/1998 22.94 2.36 12.74 11.59
2/14/1999 25.69 2.57 13.39 11.69
5/16/1999 25.99 2.59 12.38 12.22
8/16/1999 26.02 2.55 12.43 12.47
11/16/1999 26.19 2.45 12.27 12.71
2/15/2000 24.11 2.43 13.86 12.57
5/16/2000 24.07 2.33 13.47 12.66
8/16/2000 24.15 2.32 13.52 12.52
11/16/2000 23.90 2.54 13.22 11.85
2/14/2001 23.10 2.61 14.55 11.44
5/16/2001 22.68 2.66 14.97 11.67
8/16/2001 22.53 2.66 15.12 11.70
11/16/2001 22.58 2.47 14.41 12.01
2/14/2002 22.90 3.18 14.53 12.56
5/16/2002 22.97 3.25 14.61 12.59
8/16/2002 22.99 3.31 14.64 12.90
11/16/2002 22.83 3.30 14.76 13.15
2/14/2003 23.08 5.03 13.70 11.60
5/16/2003 23.08 4.90 13.65 11.57
8/16/2003 21.77 5.21 13.46 11.77
11/16/2003 21.39 5.48 13.26 11.24
2/15/2004 19.93 6.61 14.68 12.00
5/16/2004 20.27 6.43 15.04 11.78
8/16/2004 20.25 6.13 15.13 11.77
11/16/2004 19.98 6.14 15.21 12.04
2/14/2005 19.18 6.11 17.32 11.22
5/16/2005 19.33 6.35 17.34 11.14
8/16/2005 19.45 6.30 17.46 11.09
11/16/2005 19.16 6.17 17.16 11.19
2/14/2006 18.85 7.58 18.42 11.56
5/16/2006 18.56 7.40 18.35 13.47
8/16/2006 18.64 7.44 16.69 14.82
11/16/2006 18.74 7.31 16.34 14.41
2/14/2007 18.00 7.56 16.26 15.41
5/16/2007 17.59 7.48 16.03 16.57
8/16/2007 17.19 7.40 15.81 17.68
11/16/2007 16.59 8.08 16.61 17.76
2/15/2008 16.00 8.76 17.40 17.85
5/16/2008 15.95 8.86 17.46 18.32
8/16/2008 15.91 9.06 17.22 18.41
11/16/2008 15.82 9.35 17.57 17.28
2/14/2009 15.85 9.46 17.26 17.35
5/16/2009 15.28 9.31 17.79 17.08
8/16/2009 15.06 9.55 17.83 16.81
11/16/2009 13.98 9.70 18.12 17.45
2/14/2010 13.91 9.79 18.25 17.60
5/16/2010 13.72 9.74 18.45 17.84
8/16/2010 13.45 9.83 18.34 18.16
11/16/2010 13.35 9.85 18.34 18.03
2/14/2011 13.52 10.20 18.83 16.80
5/16/2011 13.59 10.39 19.08 16.75
8/16/2011 13.46 10.58 18.85 16.75
11/16/2011 13.35 10.75 18.54 17.04
2/15/2012 13.40 10.89 18.77 16.67
5/16/2012 13.57 11.15 18.71 17.17
8/16/2012 13.27 11.16 18.90 17.70
11/16/2012 12.78 11.40 18.60 18.38
2/14/2013 12.89 11.45 18.54 18.58
5/16/2013 12.83 11.57 18.41 18.84
8/16/2013 12.73 11.60 18.66 18.88
11/16/2013 12.58 11.67 18.78 19.04
2/14/2014 12.58 12.21 18.65 19.03
5/16/2014 12.61 12.45 18.80 19.03
8/16/2014 12.64 12.58 19.38 18.89
11/16/2014 12.64 12.79 19.38 18.87
2/14/2015 12.83 13.00 19.55 18.79
5/16/2015 12.81 13.17 19.62 18.81
8/16/2015 12.75 13.49 19.75 18.59
11/16/2015 12.65 13.59 19.76 18.59
2/15/2016 12.49 13.90 19.77 18.19
5/16/2016 12.39 14.32 19.69 17.92
8/16/2016 12.37 14.54 19.83 17.74
11/16/2016 12.31 14.72 19.84 17.53
2/14/2017 12.25 14.96 20.08 17.34
5/16/2017 12.15 15.22 20.22 17.49
8/16/2017 12.00 15.41 20.12 17.98
11/16/2017 11.81 15.47 20.17 18.44
2/14/2018 11.58 15.51 20.33 18.73
5/16/2018 11.34 15.64 20.25 19.06
8/16/2018 11.23 15.86 20.01 19.38
11/16/2018 11.18 16.10 19.92 19.61
2/14/2019 11.19 16.44 20.01 19.44
5/16/2019 11.21 16.79 20.00 19.29
8/16/2019 11.26 17.10 20.00 19.07
11/16/2019 11.25 17.47 20.07 18.81
2/15/2020 11.04 18.03 19.98 18.75
5/16/2020 11.07 18.38 19.95 18.59
8/16/2020 10.97 19.01 19.86 18.32
11/16/2020 10.92 19.54 19.80 18.07
2/14/2021 10.67 20.58 19.50 17.98
5/16/2021 10.49 21.62 19.24 17.89
8/16/2021 9.76 22.54 19.23 17.86
11/16/2021 9.55 23.20 19.05 17.76
2/14/2022 9.70 23.38 18.81 17.36
5/16/2022 9.69 23.74 18.70 17.39
8/16/2022 9.65 24.12 18.61 17.35
11/16/2022 9.32 24.47 18.66 17.39
2/14/2023 9.28 25.07 18.71 17.14
5/16/2023 9.28 25.40 18.73 16.95
8/16/2023 9.24 25.83 18.71 16.81

Note: Capacity in other sizes is standardized to the equivalent of an 8-inch wafer. The data prior to 2008 from Gartner. The data extend through 2023:Q3.

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast; Gartner; authors’ calculations.

(c) Capacity by Node Group
Percent share

Make Full Screen
Geometry new China Taiwan Korea U.S. ROW
Legacy 30.19 15.24 5.50 11.66 37.40
Advanced 17.57 19.54 34.39 6.90 21.60
Cutting-edge 0.00 51.85 18.17 14.83 15.16

Note: Legacy nodes are 28 nm and above, advanced nodes are 6 to 27 nm, and cutting-edge nodes are 5 nm and below. Global production share of legacy nodes is 69%, advanced nodes is 37%, and cutting-edge nodes is 4%. The data are for 2023:Q3 and by country of production.

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast; authors’ calculations.

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Figure 3. Impact of Sanctions on China’s Overall Access to Chips

(a) China Chip Imports
Billion USD; 3-month moving average

Make Full Screen
Date Imports Trend line
1/16/2010 11.94 12.41
2/16/2010 12.32 12.53
3/16/2010 12.48 12.63
4/16/2010 12.94 12.74
5/16/2010 13.12 12.85
6/16/2010 13.26 12.97
7/16/2010 13.17 13.08
8/16/2010 13.18 13.19
9/16/2010 13.13 13.30
10/16/2010 13.46 13.41
11/16/2010 13.46 13.53
12/16/2010 13.43 13.64
1/16/2011 14.05 13.75
2/16/2011 13.88 13.86
3/16/2011 14.32 13.97
4/16/2011 13.64 14.08
5/16/2011 14.12 14.19
6/16/2011 13.93 14.30
7/16/2011 14.03 14.41
8/16/2011 14.13 14.53
9/16/2011 13.99 14.64
10/16/2011 14.08 14.75
11/16/2011 14.02 14.86
12/16/2011 14.48 14.97
1/16/2012 13.81 15.09
2/16/2012 14.93 15.20
3/16/2012 15.00 15.31
4/16/2012 15.10 15.42
5/16/2012 14.20 15.53
6/16/2012 14.40 15.65
7/16/2012 15.51 15.76
8/16/2012 16.14 15.87
9/16/2012 16.95 15.98
10/16/2012 17.35 16.09
11/16/2012 17.50 16.21
12/16/2012 17.50 16.32
1/16/2013 18.82 16.43
2/16/2013 19.65 16.54
3/16/2013 22.39 16.65
4/16/2013 22.74 16.76
5/16/2013 22.25 16.87
6/16/2013 18.87 16.98
7/16/2013 18.02 17.09
8/16/2013 17.79 17.21
9/16/2013 18.23 17.32
10/16/2013 17.67 17.43
11/16/2013 17.63 17.54
12/16/2013 17.65 17.65
1/16/2014 17.48 17.77
2/16/2014 17.52 17.88
3/16/2014 17.33 17.98
4/16/2014 17.57 18.10
5/16/2014 17.69 18.21
6/16/2014 18.00 18.32
7/16/2014 18.21 18.43
8/16/2014 17.94 18.54
9/16/2014 18.34 18.66
10/16/2014 18.51 18.77
11/16/2014 18.55 18.88
12/16/2014 18.86 18.99
1/16/2015 18.61 19.11
2/16/2015 19.00 19.22
3/16/2015 18.39 19.32
4/16/2015 18.29 19.44
5/16/2015 18.23 19.55
6/16/2015 18.56 19.66
7/16/2015 18.92 19.77
8/16/2015 18.99 19.88
9/16/2015 18.72 20.00
10/16/2015 18.90 20.11
11/16/2015 19.61 20.22
12/16/2015 20.85 20.33
1/16/2016 19.85 20.44
2/16/2016 18.73 20.56
3/16/2016 17.74 20.66
4/16/2016 18.55 20.78
5/16/2016 19.00 20.89
6/16/2016 19.03 21.00
7/16/2016 18.74 21.11
8/16/2016 19.02 21.22
9/16/2016 19.06 21.34
10/16/2016 19.38 21.45
11/16/2016 19.35 21.56
12/16/2016 20.40 21.67
1/16/2017 19.59 21.79
2/16/2017 20.72 21.90
3/16/2017 19.46 22.00
4/16/2017 20.28 22.12
5/16/2017 19.39 22.23
6/16/2017 20.36 22.34
7/16/2017 21.07 22.45
8/16/2017 21.88 22.56
9/16/2017 22.22 22.68
10/16/2017 23.02 22.79
11/16/2017 23.74 22.90
12/16/2017 24.03 23.01
1/16/2018 24.97 23.12
2/16/2018 25.42 23.24
3/16/2018 26.40 23.34
4/16/2018 26.24 23.45
5/16/2018 26.75 23.56
6/16/2018 26.43 23.68
7/16/2018 27.13 23.79
8/16/2018 26.39 23.90
9/16/2018 27.08 24.01
10/16/2018 27.20 24.12
11/16/2018 26.35 24.24
12/16/2018 23.87 24.35
1/16/2019 22.52 24.46
2/16/2019 22.54 24.57
3/16/2019 23.96 24.68
4/16/2019 24.40 24.79
5/16/2019 25.03 24.90
6/16/2019 25.08 25.01
7/16/2019 25.22 25.12
8/16/2019 25.73 25.24
9/16/2019 25.82 25.35
10/16/2019 25.94 25.46
11/16/2019 26.25 25.58
12/16/2019 26.64 25.69
1/16/2020 25.34 25.80
2/16/2020 25.50 25.91
3/16/2020 26.42 26.02
4/16/2020 28.40 26.13
5/16/2020 28.47 26.24
6/16/2020 28.50 26.36
7/16/2020 28.70 26.47
8/16/2020 29.30 26.58
9/16/2020 30.40 26.69
10/16/2020 30.90 26.80
11/16/2020 31.29 26.92
12/16/2020 31.38 27.03
1/16/2021 32.18 27.14
2/16/2021 33.03 27.25
3/16/2021 33.87 27.36
4/16/2021 34.53 27.47
5/16/2021 35.24 27.58
6/16/2021 36.07 27.69
7/16/2021 36.28 27.80
8/16/2021 36.68 27.92
9/16/2021 36.20 28.03
10/16/2021 35.65 28.14
11/16/2021 36.34 28.26
12/16/2021 37.87 28.37
1/16/2022 39.62 28.48
2/16/2022 39.86 28.59
3/16/2022 38.72 28.69
4/16/2022 37.97 28.81
5/16/2022 36.50 28.92
6/16/2022 35.77 29.03
7/16/2022 35.13 29.14
8/16/2022 34.23 29.26
9/16/2022 34.02 29.37
10/16/2022 33.50 29.48
11/16/2022 32.00 29.59
12/16/2022 31.00 29.70
1/16/2023 28.12 29.82
2/16/2023 28.78 29.93
3/16/2023 28.23 30.03
4/16/2023 29.59 30.15
5/16/2023 29.17 30.26
6/16/2023 29.29 30.37
7/16/2023 29.42 30.48
8/16/2023 29.63 30.59
9/16/2023 29.13 30.71
10/16/2023 29.38 30.82
11/16/2023 29.75 30.93
12/16/2023 30.26 31.04
1/16/2024 30.80 31.15
2/16/2024 30.74 31.27

Note: The data extend through February 2024. The dotted line shows pre-pandemic trend line. Vertical line indicates U.S. export controls in October 2022.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.

(b) Taiwan Chip Exports
Oct. 2022 = 100; 3-month moving average

Make Full Screen
Date China Rest of world
1/15/2010 22.14 32.61
2/15/2010 23.62 34.31
3/18/2010 24.39 34.47
4/15/2010 25.32 35.27
5/16/2010 24.76 34.79
6/15/2010 24.73 35.71
7/16/2010 24.46 36.02
8/15/2010 24.60 37.00
9/15/2010 24.56 37.18
10/16/2010 23.99 37.70
11/15/2010 25.10 38.27
12/16/2010 25.79 38.75
1/15/2011 27.50 39.37
2/15/2011 28.71 40.33
3/18/2011 29.96 41.45
4/15/2011 30.18 41.49
5/16/2011 29.90 41.44
6/15/2011 29.29 40.48
7/16/2011 28.69 40.09
8/15/2011 28.48 40.42
9/15/2011 27.48 40.08
10/16/2011 27.00 39.79
11/15/2011 26.43 38.68
12/16/2011 26.55 38.44
1/15/2012 26.61 39.20
2/15/2012 23.99 37.29
3/17/2012 25.80 39.58
4/15/2012 26.09 39.94
5/16/2012 28.54 41.96
6/15/2012 26.88 40.26
7/16/2012 27.14 40.13
8/15/2012 26.97 40.48
9/15/2012 26.86 40.83
10/16/2012 27.09 41.65
11/15/2012 26.51 41.42
12/16/2012 26.21 42.00
1/15/2013 25.87 41.77
2/15/2013 26.22 42.23
3/18/2013 26.08 41.20
4/15/2013 26.26 42.03
5/16/2013 26.63 42.68
6/15/2013 27.45 45.31
7/16/2013 28.43 46.03
8/15/2013 29.08 45.81
9/15/2013 29.46 44.70
10/16/2013 28.75 44.04
11/15/2013 28.06 44.47
12/16/2013 28.78 45.54
1/15/2014 29.54 45.65
2/15/2014 30.78 45.80
3/18/2014 30.97 45.73
4/15/2014 31.29 46.32
5/16/2014 32.10 47.92
6/15/2014 33.23 48.92
7/16/2014 34.39 49.78
8/15/2014 34.34 50.07
9/15/2014 33.91 51.42
10/16/2014 32.89 51.94
11/15/2014 32.03 52.69
12/16/2014 31.50 52.19
1/15/2015 31.16 52.30
2/15/2015 31.84 52.34
3/18/2015 31.82 51.62
4/15/2015 31.55 50.63
5/16/2015 31.49 49.49
6/15/2015 31.30 49.02
7/16/2015 31.57 47.75
8/15/2015 31.87 47.78
9/15/2015 31.30 47.20
10/16/2015 30.11 47.65
11/15/2015 28.92 47.59
12/16/2015 28.26 46.93
1/15/2016 28.81 46.89
2/15/2016 29.81 46.71
3/17/2016 30.43 47.63
4/15/2016 31.21 48.30
5/16/2016 32.09 47.94
6/15/2016 33.44 48.08
7/16/2016 34.58 49.04
8/15/2016 35.33 50.41
9/15/2016 37.60 51.43
10/16/2016 40.36 51.05
11/15/2016 44.38 50.39
12/16/2016 46.17 50.87
1/15/2017 45.94 52.12
2/15/2017 43.77 52.58
3/18/2017 43.85 54.26
4/15/2017 44.80 54.58
5/16/2017 44.28 55.11
6/15/2017 43.91 52.18
7/16/2017 47.34 52.23
8/15/2017 48.67 53.03
9/15/2017 49.53 56.00
10/16/2017 48.19 57.46
11/15/2017 50.07 57.88
12/16/2017 52.12 58.61
1/15/2018 54.58 59.24
2/15/2018 53.93 59.38
3/18/2018 51.38 57.03
4/15/2018 58.09 54.93
5/16/2018 58.32 55.32
6/15/2018 60.21 56.65
7/16/2018 50.29 56.45
8/15/2018 51.24 55.81
9/15/2018 51.83 54.95
10/16/2018 54.46 54.92
11/15/2018 55.41 54.44
12/16/2018 55.45 54.64
1/15/2019 55.10 54.50
2/15/2019 53.88 55.30
3/18/2019 48.70 53.94
4/15/2019 46.86 54.46
5/16/2019 47.24 52.76
6/15/2019 53.55 54.64
7/16/2019 55.88 54.14
8/15/2019 59.49 54.93
9/15/2019 61.37 55.41
10/16/2019 62.64 56.06
11/15/2019 62.58 57.16
12/16/2019 63.60 57.80
1/15/2020 63.06 60.16
2/15/2020 61.96 60.00
3/17/2020 63.32 62.71
4/15/2020 66.52 62.27
5/16/2020 69.29 64.01
6/15/2020 69.81 61.58
7/16/2020 72.84 62.24
8/15/2020 73.25 62.91
9/15/2020 77.15 64.76
10/16/2020 76.74 67.24
11/15/2020 77.90 70.17
12/16/2020 77.49 71.97
1/15/2021 77.77 73.04
2/15/2021 82.15 77.10
3/18/2021 79.46 80.39
4/15/2021 82.63 80.90
5/16/2021 80.43 81.69
6/15/2021 83.28 82.49
7/16/2021 92.62 82.06
8/15/2021 93.40 83.36
9/15/2021 92.60 86.14
10/16/2021 86.85 91.69
11/15/2021 82.47 90.90
12/16/2021 86.98 92.85
1/15/2022 85.60 95.13
2/15/2022 97.30 99.61
3/18/2022 105.10 105.77
4/15/2022 108.81 109.87
5/16/2022 112.60 110.23
6/15/2022 107.73 107.05
7/16/2022 105.04 106.20
8/15/2022 102.48 105.02
9/15/2022 102.60 102.75
10/16/2022 100.00 100.00
11/15/2022 95.78 99.66
12/16/2022 88.69 99.50
1/15/2023 90.39 98.73
2/15/2023 84.43 94.52
3/18/2023 84.48 95.79
4/15/2023 77.22 97.85
5/16/2023 78.98 104.30
6/15/2023 79.70 103.98
7/16/2023 81.90 97.36
8/15/2023 86.58 93.67
9/15/2023 83.83 92.17
10/16/2023 83.08 98.07
11/15/2023 80.64 97.41
12/16/2023 84.28 96.19
1/15/2024 85.52 96.49
2/15/2024 86.16 95.08

Note: The data extend through February 2024. Vertical line indicates U.S. export controls in October 2022.

Source: Haver Analytics; authors’ calculations.

Return to text

Figure 4. Chinese Imports of Chip Manufacturing Equipment

Jan. 2023 = 100; 3-month moving average

Make Full Screen
Date Japan Netherlands
1/16/2019 80.34 47.60
2/16/2019 87.75 50.49
3/16/2019 102.46 61.90
4/16/2019 104.55 96.10
5/16/2019 103.89 104.21
6/16/2019 101.41 92.12
7/16/2019 109.20 68.89
8/16/2019 115.51 60.88
9/16/2019 110.63 79.16
10/16/2019 108.60 114.17
11/16/2019 106.59 130.94
12/16/2019 109.88 163.74
1/16/2020 101.67 149.35
2/16/2020 93.40 142.86
3/16/2020 97.43 105.07
4/16/2020 104.55 120.75
5/16/2020 107.91 154.94
6/16/2020 95.28 216.78
7/16/2020 98.85 189.79
8/16/2020 117.77 242.76
9/16/2020 138.16 212.39
10/16/2020 144.25 196.65
11/16/2020 136.21 155.44
12/16/2020 128.42 126.61
1/16/2021 130.86 189.53
2/16/2021 130.92 195.93
3/16/2021 139.47 218.64
4/16/2021 145.54 191.11
5/16/2021 155.64 192.23
6/16/2021 166.91 206.21
7/16/2021 166.35 193.89
8/16/2021 159.98 159.21
9/16/2021 147.33 125.96
10/16/2021 147.16 122.96
11/16/2021 157.14 159.37
12/16/2021 161.43 258.65
1/16/2022 161.57 250.42
2/16/2022 148.89 246.37
3/16/2022 144.17 201.84
4/16/2022 137.18 242.87
5/16/2022 128.73 220.56
6/16/2022 120.83 170.98
7/16/2022 118.49 120.56
8/16/2022 125.43 127.85
9/16/2022 141.91 120.63
10/16/2022 138.37 179.23
11/16/2022 130.22 148.29
12/16/2022 104.06 153.27
1/16/2023 100.00 100.00
2/16/2023 106.21 117.13
3/16/2023 121.38 143.14
4/16/2023 130.48 156.71
5/16/2023 118.53 199.92
6/16/2023 108.55 350.37
7/16/2023 114.76 460.54
8/16/2023 126.37 545.22
9/16/2023 152.03 644.47
10/16/2023 144.62 656.65
11/16/2023 159.77 668.74
12/16/2023 161.97 634.57

Note: The data extend through December 2023. First vertical line indicates restrictions announced in January 2023, second vertical line indicates restrictions enacted on October 2023.

Source: UN Comtrade; authors’ calculations.

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Figure 5. Minimum Chip Production Node

Node range (nm)

Make Full Screen
Node range SMIC (China) TSMC (Taiwan)
34-46 2/15/2014  
21-33 11/15/2014  
17-21 2/15/2018 2/15/2014
11-16 2/15/2018 11/15/2014
8-10 2/15/2018 8/15/2016
6-7 2/15/2022 5/16/2018
4-5   8/15/2019
<3   8/15/2021

Note: Units are adjusted to 8-inch wafers per month.

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast; authors' calculations.

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Last Update: January 17, 2025