Accessible Version

Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Global Economic Activity? Accessible Data

Figure 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty

Month Firm-Level TPU News-Based TPU
1985m1   26.59
1985m2   30.65
1985m3   42.44
1985m4   42.02
1985m5   31.66
1985m6   34.80
1985m7   50.40
1985m8   41.98
1985m9   60.03
1985m10   36.14
1985m11   39.58
1985m12   44.47
1986m1   40.25
1986m2   41.18
1986m3   40.27
1986m4   43.62
1986m5   41.72
1986m6   41.21
1986m7   32.04
1986m8   37.77
1986m9   49.16
1986m10   43.37
1986m11   44.26
1986m12   33.57
1987m1   51.20
1987m2   48.56
1987m3   64.37
1987m4   83.27
1987m5   43.02
1987m6   44.40
1987m7   47.50
1987m8   30.96
1987m9   36.72
1987m10   44.79
1987m11   50.89
1987m12   43.08
1988m1   49.58
1988m2   60.86
1988m3   52.54
1988m4   37.53
1988m5   32.41
1988m6   42.09
1988m7   45.29
1988m8   38.41
1988m9   42.81
1988m10   46.74
1988m11   51.01
1988m12   49.59
1989m1   37.14
1989m2   33.85
1989m3   32.95
1989m4   35.61
1989m5   42.43
1989m6   39.99
1989m7   39.51
1989m8   32.44
1989m9   31.66
1989m10   32.9
1989m11   28.66
1989m12   36.86
1990m1   30.92
1990m2   30.69
1990m3   36.77
1990m4   36.44
1990m5   37.74
1990m6   40.41
1990m7   39.87
1990m8   34.01
1990m9   33.19
1990m10   30.1
1990m11   35.44
1990m12   41.61
1991m1   32.9
1991m2   31.29
1991m3   33.24
1991m4   39.74
1991m5   42.74
1991m6   39.27
1991m7   44.01
1991m8   33.83
1991m9   33.19
1991m10   35.72
1991m11   38.61
1991m12   41.9
1992m1   51.13
1992m2   42.27
1992m3   33.28
1992m4   39.77
1992m5   33.89
1992m6   39.02
1992m7   50.34
1992m8   54.21
1992m9   45.73
1992m10   49.29
1992m11   65.3
1992m12   46.45
1993m1   52.84
1993m2   58.23
1993m3   41.17
1993m4   46.75
1993m5   43.89
1993m6   44.33
1993m7   54.7
1993m8   43.62
1993m9   51.4
1993m10   51.79
1993m11   94.97
1993m12   72.2
1994m1   37.69
1994m2   49.54
1994m3   52.28
1994m4   46.23
1994m5   52.02
1994m6   36.22
1994m7   37.84
1994m8   32.89
1994m9   38.72
1994m10   38.39
1994m11   59.42
1994m12   44.8
1995m1   40.02
1995m2   38.49
1995m3   31.66
1995m4   35.36
1995m5   60.58
1995m6   60.38
1995m7   38.82
1995m8   26.04
1995m9   30.61
1995m10   28.06
1995m11   30.51
1995m12   31.21
1996m1   39.44
1996m2   45.67
1996m3   39.66
1996m4   33.98
1996m5   37.47
1996m6   33.63
1996m7   30.55
1996m8   29.09
1996m9   25.54
1996m10   26.47
1996m11   29.23
1996m12   33.49
1997m1   26.79
1997m2   35.16
1997m3   30.29
1997m4   32.09
1997m5   33.64
1997m6   34.37
1997m7   30.63
1997m8   27.38
1997m9   33.76
1997m10   36.76
1997m11   47.08
1997m12   31.97
1998m1   30.69
1998m2   25.53
1998m3   29.84
1998m4   30.77
1998m5   25.66
1998m6   33.54
1998m7   36.33
1998m8   32.31
1998m9   32.45
1998m10   33.77
1998m11   30.2
1998m12   35.7
1999m1   34.19
1999m2   34.41
1999m3   39.11
1999m4   34.93
1999m5   30.32
1999m6   33.05
1999m7   31.7
1999m8   32.25
1999m9   30.39
1999m10   32.64
1999m11   48.94
1999m12   41.58
2000m1   32.12
2000m2   28.18
2000m3   36.84
2000m4   35.28
2000m5   49.33
2000m6   27.37
2000m7   31.94
2000m8   29.21
2000m9   33.43
2000m10   25.48
2000m11   26.9
2000m12   29.82
2001m1   25.99
2001m2   20.65
2001m3   25.08
2001m4   34.31
2001m5   27.79
2001m6   30.16
2001m7   34.3
2001m8   28.29
2001m9   24.13
2001m10   24.04
2001m11   33.66
2001m12   34.29
2002m1   31.63
2002m2   31.95
2002m3   53.88
2002m4   36.55
2002m5   41.12
2002m6   39.78
2002m7   40.61
2002m8   34.51
2002m9   27.69
2002m10   32.55
2002m11   31.85
2002m12   24.72
2003m1   25.27
2003m2   31.57
2003m3   23.27
2003m4   16.25
2003m5   28.6
2003m6   32.86
2003m7   28.43
2003m8   24.55
2003m9   39.81
2003m10   31.4
2003m11   50.18
2003m12   46.64
2004m1   30.88
2004m2   35.4
2004m3   27.12
2004m4   28.38
2004m5   31
2004m6   22.94
2004m7   34.25
2004m8   28.87
2004m9   28.53
2004m10   29.36
2004m11   31.06
2004m12   30.1
2005m1   27.61
2005m2   19.92
2005m3   23.08
2005m4   31.5
2005m5   33.33
2005m6   38.65
2005m7   34.03
2005m8   22.79
2005m9   22.9
2005m10   34.36
2005m11   28.04
2005m12   32.11
2006m1   23.66
2006m2   24.29
2006m3   24.32
2006m4   26.57
2006m5   27.05
2006m6   26.84
2006m7   30.91
2006m8   20.98
2006m9   26.79
2006m10   23.69
2006m11   26
2006m12   26.98
2007m1   22.5
2007m2   27.56
2007m3   26.71
2007m4   30.44
2007m5   29.71
2007m6   34.27
2007m7   24.37
2007m8   23.17
2007m9   19
2007m10   25.88
2007m11   27.37
2007m12   21.82
2008m1   27.87
2008m2   24.89
2008m3   25.98
2008m4   31.78
2008m5   25.64
2008m6   34.38
2008m7   32.97
2008m8   25.97
2008m9   29.58
2008m10   31.71
2008m11   28.88
2008m12   31.33
2009m1   23.31
2009m2   26.2
2009m3   34.15
2009m4   22.99
2009m5   21.32
2009m6   21.15
2009m7   24.7
2009m8   29.13
2009m9   37.14
2009m10   28.32
2009m11   27.94
2009m12   31.12
2010m1   24.49
2010m2   18.85
2010m3   28.56
2010m4   25.49
2010m5   21.41
2010m6   27.38
2010m7   28.69
2010m8   29.79
2010m9   31.5
2010m10   31.01
2010m11   30.49
2010m12   32.21
2011m1   30.24
2011m2   24.95
2011m3   29.95
2011m4   31.69
2011m5   20.82
2011m6   29.77
2011m7   30.57
2011m8   30.83
2011m9   21.24
2011m10   36.77
2011m11   36.38
2011m12   30.97
2012m1 1.374885 29.72
2012m2 1.374885 23.26
2012m3 1.374885 27.71
2012m4 1.419111 21.95
2012m5 1.419111 28.6
2012m6 1.419111 20.72
2012m7 1.114206 29.37
2012m8 1.114206 20.97
2012m9 1.114206 22.71
2012m10 1.377551 27.78
2012m11 1.377551 27.59
2012m12 1.377551 25.88
2013m1 1.24031 22.87
2013m2 1.24031 28.6
2013m3 1.24031 31.86
2013m4 1.33265 11.3
2013m5 1.33265 33.65
2013m6 1.33265 26.86
2013m7 1.786626 24.47
2013m8 1.786626 20.35
2013m9 1.786626 25.63
2013m10 1.229508 33.37
2013m11 1.229508 26.03
2013m12 1.229508 21.48
2014m1 1.589595 23.01
2014m2 1.589595 26.8
2014m3 1.589595 27.13
2014m4 0.8667883 24.47
2014m5 0.8667883 16.78
2014m6 0.8667883 27.61
2014m7 1.496479 20.21
2014m8 1.496479 22.25
2014m9 1.496479 19.87
2014m10 1.30513 21.02
2014m11 1.30513 25.03
2014m12 1.30513 28.7
2015m1 0.8978195 26.61
2015m2 0.8978195 25.19
2015m3 0.8978195 20.87
2015m4 1.465364 21.37
2015m5 1.465364 43.44
2015m6 1.465364 44.5
2015m7 1.317467 26.48
2015m8 1.317467 35.42
2015m9 1.317467 29.25
2015m10 1.539158 53.25
2015m11 1.539158 30.72
2015m12 1.539158 31.82
2016m1 1.211073 36.03
2016m2 1.211073 32.21
2016m3 1.211073 54.33
2016m4 1.361502 46.85
2016m5 1.361502 57.42
2016m6 1.361502 74.69
2016m7 1.612138 46.11
2016m8 1.612138 43.67
2016m9 1.612138 44.25
2016m10 2.090261 50.46
2016m11 2.090261 111.3
2016m12 2.090261 105.84
2017m1 8.762886 166.42
2017m2 8.762886 122.7
2017m3 8.762886 90.58
2017m4 2.867988 97.09
2017m5 2.867988 54.46
2017m6 2.867988 60.12
2017m7 2.212389 65.98
2017m8 2.212389 54.83
2017m9 2.212389 51.3
2017m10 2.486751 47.74
2017m11 2.486751 44.03
2017m12 2.486751 46.75
2018m1 4.37247 73.73
2018m2 4.37247 57.59
2018m3 4.37247 261.47
2018m4 9.345795 174.08
2018m5 9.345795 152.14
2018m6 9.345795 228.53
2018m7 20.76613 246.28
2018m8 20.76613 225.75
2018m9 20.76613 150.08
2018m10 20.19909 155.15
2018m11 20.19909 144.79
2018m12 20.19909 164.61
2019m1 13.59264 141.32
2019m2 13.59264 127.75
2019m3 13.59264 94.38
2019m4 42.85714 91.44
2019m5 42.85714 190.36
2019m6 42.85714 269.11
2019m7 42.85714 148.43
2019m8   262.91

Left scale: News-based TPU (data through July 2019). At an index value of 100, 1 percent of news articles contain references to trade policy uncertainty. The articles are from seven major daily newspapers: Boston Globe, Chicago Tribune, Guardian, Los Angeles Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post.

Right-scale: Firm-level TPU index, average across firms (data through June 2019).

Inset: News-based TPU from January 2018 through July 2019. Two waves of heightened trade policy uncertainty are labelled as 2018H1 and 2019 Q2.

Source: Caldara, Dario, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, Andrea Raffo (2019), "The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty".

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Figure 2: World Trade and Industrial Production

Index, Jan. 2013=100

Month World IP World Exports World Imports
2015m1 106.08 107.21 103.6219
2015m2 106.1543 107.01 103.3262
2015m3 106.3306 103.61 104.6383
2015m4 106.4327 104.67 104.0747
2015m5 106.3492 104.14 101.7093
2015m6 106.804 105.23 103.8529
2015m7 106.9711 105.53 104.4442
2015m8 106.8969 105.13 104.3888
2015m9 107.361 105.92 104.666
2015m10 107.3888 106.50 105.2758
2015m11 107.3331 105.26 104.7491
2015m12 107.2125 107.07 105.2019
2016m1 107.9458 105.92 103.4833
2016m2 107.8994 107.32 105.3312
2016m3 107.8437 104.86 103.9453
2016m4 108.1314 106.92 104.5644
2016m5 107.853 105.62 104.3241
2016m6 108.5399 106.56 105.8671
2016m7 108.5863 105.95 104.6013
2016m8 109.0504 107.18 106.7819
2016m9 109.0968 106.99 106.6248
2016m10 109.728 106.76 105.8394
2016m11 110.6006 109.16 108.2602
2016m12 110.7862 110.90 109.1657
2017m1 110.4799 109.77 109.0548
2017m2 110.7398 109.62 108.445
2017m3 111.5103 112.26 110.6255
2017m4 111.6681 110.06 109.0733
2017m5 112.1879 111.42 111.0598
2017m6 112.6056 111.32 110.6994
2017m7 112.7263 111.41 110.9119
2017m8 113.3389 112.25 112.0669
2017m9 113.4874 112.87 112.2979
2017m10 113.6081 110.74 111.6419
2017m11 114.7034 114.59 114.6725
2017m12 115.1304 115.70 115.4486
2018m1 114.9912 115.89 115.3285
2018m2 115.2511 114.88 114.8111
2018m3 115.7895 113.12 114.3214
2018m4 115.9194 114.36 114.6263
2018m5 115.8359 114.87 115.6981
2018m6 115.9194 115.45 114.5523
2018m7 116.2165 116.04 116.89
2018m8 116.7084 116.00 117.2965
2018m9 116.5785 115.67 115.1437
2018m10 117.2283 116.92 117.6476
2018m11 116.8755 115.53 115.2453
2018m12 116.727 114.12 113.8871
2019m1 116.792 115.80 115.9475
2019m2 116.6992 114.53 114.5801
2019m3 117.9059 115.61 114.7187
2019m4 117.2097 113.39 115.4855
2019m5 117.3953 115.29 114.2659

Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver (data through May 2019).

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Figure 3: VAR Impulse Responses to an Increase in TPU

HORIZON USIP_LOW USIP_MED USIP_UP AFEIP_LOW AFEIP_MED AFEIP_UP EMEIP_LOW EMEIP_MED EMEIP_UP DOLLAR_LOW DOLLAR_MED DOLLAR_UP IMPORTS_LOW IMPORTS_MED IMPORTS_UP SP500_LOW SP500_MED SP500_UP
Impulse response horizon Lower bound U.S. IP response Median U.S. IP response Upper bound U.S. IP response Lower bound AFE IP response Median AFE IP response Upper bound AFE IP response Lower bound EME IP response Median EME IP response Upper bound EME IP response Lower bound Broad Dollar response Median Broad Dollar response Upper bound Broad Dollar response Lower bound World Imports response Median World Imports response Upper bound World Imports response Lower bound S&P; 500 response Median S&P; 500 response Upper bound S&P; 500 response
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.50 -0.17 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.60 0.43 1.42
1 0.02 0.18 0.35 -0.48 -0.25 0.00 -0.38 -0.12 0.14 -0.58 -0.04 0.47 -0.15 0.18 0.53 -1.33 0.32 1.83
2 -0.38 -0.15 0.07 -0.75 -0.43 -0.13 -0.60 -0.30 0.03 0.10 0.71 1.44 -0.55 -0.16 0.22 -2.31 -0.52 1.42
3 -0.37 -0.11 0.17 -0.81 -0.46 -0.12 -0.68 -0.35 -0.05 0.25 0.86 1.59 -0.95 -0.52 -0.10 -3.33 -1.44 0.59
4 -0.61 -0.26 0.08 -1.08 -0.69 -0.27 -0.82 -0.43 -0.06 0.22 0.97 1.71 -1.18 -0.66 -0.13 -4.39 -2.21 0.10
5 -0.82 -0.38 0.03 -1.25 -0.80 -0.30 -0.92 -0.50 -0.10 0.16 1.02 1.88 -1.41 -0.80 -0.22 -5.01 -2.56 -0.08
6 -1.00 -0.50 -0.02 -1.43 -0.92 -0.34 -1.03 -0.56 -0.12 0.11 1.06 1.97 -1.74 -1.05 -0.41 -5.69 -2.94 -0.29
7 -1.19 -0.63 -0.08 -1.58 -1.03 -0.37 -1.12 -0.59 -0.12 0.09 1.08 2.06 -1.94 -1.15 -0.42 -6.29 -3.30 -0.51
8 -1.37 -0.76 -0.12 -1.73 -1.12 -0.42 -1.20 -0.62 -0.14 0.07 1.09 2.12 -2.17 -1.28 -0.49 -6.62 -3.51 -0.63
9 -1.53 -0.86 -0.14 -1.88 -1.20 -0.48 -1.28 -0.66 -0.14 -0.01 1.07 2.14 -2.35 -1.43 -0.53 -6.93 -3.69 -0.76
10 -1.68 -0.93 -0.19 -2.00 -1.27 -0.50 -1.30 -0.68 -0.14 -0.04 1.05 2.13 -2.48 -1.53 -0.56 -7.03 -3.77 -0.70
11 -1.81 -1.00 -0.20 -2.08 -1.31 -0.54 -1.33 -0.69 -0.12 -0.07 1.03 2.12 -2.62 -1.60 -0.57 -7.14 -3.79 -0.67
12 -1.92 -1.08 -0.22 -2.17 -1.32 -0.53 -1.34 -0.70 -0.11 -0.16 0.99 2.08 -2.71 -1.67 -0.58 -7.26 -3.79 -0.52
13 -2.02 -1.13 -0.23 -2.20 -1.35 -0.55 -1.33 -0.71 -0.09 -0.17 0.94 2.04 -2.77 -1.71 -0.55 -7.19 -3.74 -0.38
14 -2.11 -1.16 -0.22 -2.21 -1.35 -0.55 -1.33 -0.71 -0.07 -0.24 0.90 1.99 -2.84 -1.72 -0.55 -7.14 -3.65 -0.23
15 -2.21 -1.19 -0.22 -2.21 -1.34 -0.53 -1.31 -0.67 -0.06 -0.30 0.85 1.93 -2.88 -1.71 -0.51 -7.01 -3.56 0.00
16 -2.26 -1.19 -0.20 -2.18 -1.33 -0.51 -1.27 -0.65 -0.03 -0.36 0.79 1.84 -2.89 -1.70 -0.49 -6.82 -3.35 0.04
17 -2.28 -1.17 -0.16 -2.16 -1.30 -0.50 -1.26 -0.63 0.01 -0.43 0.71 1.77 -2.88 -1.68 -0.46 -6.65 -3.11 0.19
18 -2.31 -1.14 -0.12 -2.13 -1.28 -0.46 -1.24 -0.61 0.04 -0.46 0.66 1.72 -2.88 -1.64 -0.45 -6.52 -2.93 0.37
19 -2.35 -1.13 -0.09 -2.09 -1.26 -0.43 -1.22 -0.59 0.06 -0.52 0.58 1.65 -2.89 -1.60 -0.40 -6.35 -2.68 0.57
20 -2.35 -1.09 -0.02 -2.06 -1.20 -0.39 -1.19 -0.56 0.10 -0.58 0.51 1.56 -2.85 -1.55 -0.35 -6.20 -2.47 0.86
21 -2.33 -1.05 0.01 -2.01 -1.14 -0.34 -1.16 -0.52 0.13 -0.60 0.47 1.48 -2.81 -1.50 -0.27 -6.00 -2.29 1.01
22 -2.29 -1.00 0.08 -1.95 -1.08 -0.30 -1.13 -0.48 0.16 -0.65 0.42 1.40 -2.78 -1.43 -0.23 -5.75 -2.06 1.25
23 -2.23 -0.96 0.12 -1.88 -1.02 -0.26 -1.08 -0.43 0.19 -0.70 0.36 1.34 -2.72 -1.39 -0.16 -5.54 -1.86 1.50
24 -2.19 -0.92 0.20 -1.81 -0.97 -0.21 -1.04 -0.39 0.23 -0.73 0.32 1.28 -2.65 -1.32 -0.10 -5.33 -1.69 1.75
25 -2.17 -0.87 0.27 -1.77 -0.90 -0.16 -1.01 -0.35 0.27 -0.76 0.27 1.23 -2.58 -1.23 -0.03 -5.09 -1.51 1.97
26 -2.14 -0.81 0.32 -1.68 -0.84 -0.11 -0.97 -0.33 0.31 -0.80 0.23 1.17 -2.52 -1.17 0.04 -4.88 -1.31 2.18
27 -2.11 -0.76 0.37 -1.60 -0.77 -0.05 -0.94 -0.29 0.34 -0.84 0.20 1.11 -2.50 -1.09 0.11 -4.65 -1.09 2.39
28 -2.06 -0.70 0.43 -1.53 -0.71 -0.01 -0.90 -0.26 0.37 -0.88 0.17 1.08 -2.42 -1.02 0.17 -4.47 -0.93 2.48
29 -2.03 -0.65 0.50 -1.45 -0.65 0.03 -0.86 -0.22 0.40 -0.90 0.12 1.05 -2.37 -0.95 0.23 -4.33 -0.74 2.61
30 -1.99 -0.60 0.57 -1.40 -0.59 0.09 -0.82 -0.20 0.44 -0.94 0.09 0.99 -2.30 -0.89 0.30 -4.24 -0.61 2.68
31 -1.96 -0.56 0.63 -1.34 -0.54 0.14 -0.81 -0.17 0.47 -0.96 0.05 0.97 -2.24 -0.80 0.39 -4.08 -0.45 2.80
32 -1.91 -0.49 0.68 -1.28 -0.49 0.19 -0.78 -0.15 0.49 -1.00 0.02 0.93 -2.17 -0.73 0.47 -3.88 -0.29 2.91
33 -1.85 -0.44 0.74 -1.21 -0.43 0.21 -0.76 -0.12 0.52 -1.03 0.00 0.92 -2.12 -0.68 0.52 -3.69 -0.15 3.00
34 -1.80 -0.39 0.77 -1.15 -0.38 0.26 -0.74 -0.10 0.53 -1.07 -0.01 0.89 -2.06 -0.61 0.59 -3.49 -0.03 3.15
35 -1.76 -0.34 0.83 -1.07 -0.34 0.30 -0.71 -0.09 0.56 -1.07 -0.03 0.86 -1.98 -0.55 0.64 -3.38 0.09 3.23
36 -1.71 -0.28 0.86 -1.01 -0.28 0.34 -0.69 -0.07 0.56 -1.09 -0.05 0.85 -1.93 -0.49 0.70 -3.20 0.19 3.34

Note: Impulse responses to a TPU shock of 150 points (dashed lines: 1 standard deviation confidence interval). Sample from 1985M1 through 2019M5. The size of the shock matches the increase in TPU in March 2018.

Source: Authors’ calculations.

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Figure 4: Effects of TPU on the Level of GDP since 2018

Quarter AFE Total AFE First Wave EME Total EME First Wave U.S. Total U.S. First Wave
2018q1 -0.0119 -0.0119 -0.0131 -0.0131 -0.0022 -0.0022
2018q2 -0.1514 -0.1514 -0.1710 -0.1710 -0.0237 -0.0237
2018q3 -0.3842 -0.3842 -0.4110 -0.4110 -0.1806 -0.1806
2018q4 -0.6007 -0.6007 -0.6072 -0.6072 -0.4060 -0.4060
2019q1 -0.7558 -0.7558 -0.7157 -0.7157 -0.5928 -0.5928
2019q2 -0.8293 -0.8197 -0.7343 -0.7264 -0.7205 -0.7291
2019q3 -0.9596 -0.8072 -0.8393 -0.6661 -0.8040 -0.7717
2019q4 -1.0766 -0.7438 -0.9254 -0.5692 -0.9294 -0.7495
2020q1 -1.1219 -0.6477 -0.9239 -0.4545 -1.0197 -0.6799
2020q2 -1.0959 -0.5361 -0.8571 -0.3387 -1.0455 -0.5821
2020q3 -1.0127 -0.4224 -0.7451 -0.2326 -1.0071 -0.4722
2020q4 -0.8904 -0.3156 -0.6088 -0.1426 -0.9171 -0.3622

Note: We use the estimated TPU shocks from the VAR from 2018M1 to construct a counterfactual path for the variables in the VAR, assuming only TPU shocks are active. We then construct GDP estimates using the historical sensitivity of GDP growth to IP growth (estimated elasticity of GDP to IP is 0.33 for the United States, 0.32 for the AFEs, and 0.51 for the EMEs). The projection period begins in 2019Q2.

Source: Authors’ calculations.

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Figure 5: Responses to an Increase in TPU (1985-2015 Sample)

HORIZON USIP_LOW USIP_MED USIP_UP AFEIP_LOW AFEIP_MED AFEIP_UP EMEIP_LOW EMEIP_MED EMEIP_UP DOLLAR_LOW DOLLAR_MED DOLLAR_UP IMPORTS_LOW IMPORTS_MED IMPORTS_UP SP500_LOW SP500_MED SP500_UP
Impulse response horizon Lower bound U.S. IP response Median U.S. IP response Upper bound U.S. IP response Lower bound AFE IP response Median AFE IP response Upper bound AFE IP response Lower bound EME IP response Median EME IP response Upper bound EME IP response Lower bound Broad Dollar response Median Broad Dollar response Upper bound Broad Dollar response Lower bound World Imports response Median World Imports response Upper bound World Imports response Lower bound S&P; 500 response Median S&P; 500 response Upper bound S&P; 500 response
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.61 -0.26 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.01 0.06 1.20
1 -0.02 0.16 0.33 -0.62 -0.36 -0.12 -0.35 -0.09 0.17 -0.56 0.00 0.63 -0.08 0.25 0.57 -2.31 -0.55 1.16
2 -0.38 -0.10 0.13 -1.05 -0.70 -0.40 -0.56 -0.21 0.15 0.18 0.88 1.67 -0.65 -0.26 0.13 -4.33 -2.18 -0.14
3 -0.48 -0.14 0.18 -1.43 -1.02 -0.60 -0.55 -0.16 0.22 0.34 1.14 1.98 -1.00 -0.50 -0.02 -5.55 -3.24 -0.94
4 -0.76 -0.33 0.08 -1.78 -1.28 -0.77 -0.67 -0.26 0.16 0.21 1.14 2.09 -1.20 -0.65 -0.07 -6.19 -3.78 -1.16
5 -0.98 -0.47 0.00 -2.00 -1.41 -0.82 -0.79 -0.34 0.11 0.13 1.10 2.13 -1.48 -0.84 -0.20 -6.62 -3.98 -1.29
6 -1.20 -0.61 -0.07 -2.21 -1.53 -0.91 -0.87 -0.37 0.10 0.09 1.09 2.16 -1.77 -1.02 -0.32 -6.99 -4.22 -1.45
7 -1.39 -0.73 -0.16 -2.33 -1.61 -0.97 -0.91 -0.40 0.08 0.03 1.07 2.14 -1.92 -1.11 -0.36 -7.19 -4.39 -1.52
8 -1.56 -0.82 -0.21 -2.43 -1.68 -1.01 -0.96 -0.42 0.07 -0.01 1.05 2.13 -2.06 -1.20 -0.38 -7.28 -4.40 -1.60
9 -1.70 -0.91 -0.26 -2.51 -1.72 -1.02 -0.98 -0.44 0.06 -0.07 0.98 2.05 -2.19 -1.30 -0.45 -7.31 -4.39 -1.60
10 -1.82 -0.98 -0.29 -2.57 -1.74 -1.05 -1.00 -0.44 0.04 -0.13 0.94 1.99 -2.27 -1.35 -0.47 -7.23 -4.31 -1.48
11 -1.90 -1.02 -0.31 -2.58 -1.75 -1.04 -1.00 -0.44 0.04 -0.18 0.88 1.91 -2.35 -1.39 -0.49 -7.12 -4.21 -1.37
12 -1.95 -1.06 -0.34 -2.57 -1.74 -1.05 -1.00 -0.43 0.05 -0.23 0.80 1.82 -2.42 -1.42 -0.49 -7.08 -4.11 -1.33
13 -1.98 -1.10 -0.33 -2.54 -1.72 -1.03 -0.99 -0.41 0.07 -0.29 0.74 1.72 -2.45 -1.40 -0.49 -6.94 -3.95 -1.18
14 -2.03 -1.09 -0.30 -2.53 -1.68 -0.99 -0.97 -0.39 0.10 -0.34 0.67 1.65 -2.48 -1.41 -0.48 -6.75 -3.77 -1.01
15 -2.05 -1.09 -0.26 -2.47 -1.63 -0.95 -0.95 -0.36 0.14 -0.40 0.61 1.59 -2.48 -1.40 -0.42 -6.61 -3.57 -0.80
16 -2.07 -1.06 -0.23 -2.43 -1.59 -0.91 -0.91 -0.32 0.16 -0.45 0.55 1.52 -2.47 -1.36 -0.38 -6.36 -3.36 -0.58
17 -2.06 -1.03 -0.16 -2.40 -1.54 -0.86 -0.86 -0.30 0.20 -0.49 0.49 1.43 -2.44 -1.34 -0.31 -6.16 -3.16 -0.37
18 -2.04 -1.00 -0.13 -2.32 -1.49 -0.80 -0.83 -0.26 0.24 -0.54 0.41 1.38 -2.39 -1.27 -0.24 -5.94 -2.96 -0.12
19 -2.01 -0.96 -0.07 -2.25 -1.43 -0.75 -0.78 -0.22 0.27 -0.62 0.35 1.32 -2.35 -1.19 -0.19 -5.59 -2.75 0.02
20 -1.99 -0.91 -0.02 -2.20 -1.35 -0.69 -0.74 -0.19 0.31 -0.67 0.28 1.26 -2.30 -1.13 -0.13 -5.43 -2.51 0.19
21 -1.95 -0.86 0.05 -2.11 -1.29 -0.63 -0.71 -0.16 0.34 -0.71 0.22 1.21 -2.23 -1.06 -0.06 -5.15 -2.30 0.44
22 -1.92 -0.82 0.10 -2.04 -1.21 -0.57 -0.68 -0.13 0.37 -0.73 0.16 1.15 -2.18 -1.00 0.00 -4.93 -2.11 0.62
23 -1.86 -0.77 0.15 -1.98 -1.14 -0.51 -0.64 -0.11 0.41 -0.77 0.11 1.10 -2.13 -0.94 0.05 -4.78 -1.95 0.77
24 -1.82 -0.74 0.20 -1.91 -1.07 -0.45 -0.60 -0.08 0.44 -0.79 0.06 1.06 -2.07 -0.88 0.11 -4.56 -1.74 0.94
25 -1.77 -0.66 0.26 -1.85 -0.99 -0.38 -0.57 -0.05 0.46 -0.80 0.04 1.01 -2.01 -0.83 0.19 -4.42 -1.56 1.11
26 -1.73 -0.61 0.33 -1.77 -0.93 -0.33 -0.53 -0.02 0.48 -0.83 0.01 0.95 -1.93 -0.76 0.21 -4.25 -1.39 1.32
27 -1.68 -0.56 0.38 -1.70 -0.86 -0.29 -0.51 0.01 0.50 -0.88 -0.01 0.90 -1.85 -0.68 0.30 -4.00 -1.23 1.50
28 -1.65 -0.51 0.43 -1.61 -0.80 -0.23 -0.48 0.03 0.53 -0.91 -0.04 0.86 -1.81 -0.61 0.37 -3.80 -1.06 1.65
29 -1.61 -0.47 0.49 -1.56 -0.74 -0.18 -0.46 0.05 0.54 -0.92 -0.07 0.84 -1.76 -0.56 0.42 -3.66 -0.92 1.78
30 -1.56 -0.42 0.57 -1.49 -0.70 -0.12 -0.42 0.08 0.55 -0.94 -0.08 0.82 -1.72 -0.52 0.48 -3.45 -0.80 1.91
31 -1.53 -0.38 0.62 -1.42 -0.65 -0.07 -0.39 0.10 0.56 -0.95 -0.09 0.80 -1.63 -0.47 0.55 -3.31 -0.66 1.98
32 -1.48 -0.34 0.68 -1.37 -0.61 -0.02 -0.37 0.12 0.57 -0.97 -0.11 0.79 -1.59 -0.41 0.59 -3.14 -0.55 2.10
33 -1.41 -0.30 0.72 -1.29 -0.57 0.01 -0.35 0.13 0.58 -0.97 -0.12 0.79 -1.51 -0.37 0.63 -3.00 -0.42 2.26
34 -1.37 -0.24 0.78 -1.24 -0.54 0.04 -0.34 0.14 0.58 -0.98 -0.14 0.77 -1.45 -0.33 0.68 -2.87 -0.32 2.38
35 -1.33 -0.20 0.80 -1.19 -0.49 0.09 -0.33 0.16 0.59 -0.99 -0.14 0.75 -1.40 -0.28 0.72 -2.82 -0.20 2.46
36 -1.29 -0.17 0.85 -1.14 -0.44 0.14 -0.32 0.17 0.59 -0.97 -0.14 0.76 -1.37 -0.25 0.76 -2.71 -0.09 2.49

Note: Impulse responses to a TPU shock of 150 points (dashed lines: one standard deviation confidence interval). Sample from 1985M1 through 2019M5. The size of the shock matches the surprise increase in TPU in March 2018.

Source: Authors’ calculations.

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Figure 6: Firm-level Investment and Firm-level TPU

A scatter plot of firms shows firm-level investment growth in percent over the year ending in 2019Q1 on the y-axis, and firm-level trade policy uncertainty (TPU) over the same year on the x-axis. Firm investment growth is winsorized to range between about -60 and 160 percent. The TPU measure is normalized to range from 0 to 100 depending on the intensity of TPU over the year. The dots in the plot are proportional to firm size. The majority of dots are concentrated between a TPU value of between 0 and 20, while the highest density of firm investment growth ranges from -50 to 50 percent. A negative relationship between firm investment and TPU is evident in the scatter. This observation is emphasized by a line of fit showing a clear downward trend from left to right. There is an additional plot annotation showing an estimated regression of investment growth on TPU and a set of controls (not specified here). The regression equation is INVESTMENT GROWTH = -0.18 x TPU + CONTROLS + Ɛ(i). (Investment growth on the left-hand side, with -0.18 times TPU, plus controls, plus an error term epsilon on the right-hand side). The estimated coefficient on TPU in -0.18, indicating that a unit increase in the normalized measure of TPU reduces firm investment growth by 0.18 percentage points.

Source: Proquest, Compustat, and authors’ calculations.

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Figure 7: Comparison of TPU Measures

Month News-Based TPU Baker, Bloom, and Davis TPU
1960m1 18.130  
1960m2 11.493  
1960m3 15.225  
1960m4 18.047  
1960m5 17.724  
1960m6 15.015  
1960m7 18.528  
1960m8 13.321  
1960m9 14.659  
1960m10 13.768  
1960m11 17.646  
1960m12 18.156  
1961m1 14.089  
1961m2 21.038  
1961m3 20.094  
1961m4 9.647  
1961m5 17.748  
1961m6 17.389  
1961m7 20.186  
1961m8 15.213  
1961m9 16.492  
1961m10 14.707  
1961m11 38.553  
1961m12 40.574  
1962m1 56.672  
1962m2 28.539  
1962m3 31.085  
1962m4 25.073  
1962m5 29.842  
1962m6 39.288  
1962m7 29.176  
1962m8 25.892  
1962m9 39.680  
1962m10 24.530  
1962m11 21.265  
1962m12 24.774  
1963m1 43.793  
1963m2 41.835  
1963m3 26.331  
1963m4 25.791  
1963m5 27.711  
1963m6 20.654  
1963m7 24.516  
1963m8 23.162  
1963m9 26.949  
1963m10 24.171  
1963m11 25.316  
1963m12 27.976  
1964m1 30.742  
1964m2 20.380  
1964m3 24.718  
1964m4 15.762  
1964m5 25.104  
1964m6 17.181  
1964m7 12.89461  
1964m8 15.657356  
1964m9 13.085237  
1964m10 25.736556  
1964m11 43.540293  
1964m12 29.307577  
1965m1 35.017005  
1965m2 27.749748  
1965m3 15.796178  
1965m4 16.161305  
1965m5 14.709915  
1965m6 17.281259  
1965m7 17.754929  
1965m8 10.97408  
1965m9 17.864464  
1965m10 17.986102  
1965m11 18.855219  
1965m12 13.414536  
1966m1 18.454441  
1966m2 9.8782649  
1966m3 13.334017  
1966m4 17.821045  
1966m5 17.828445  
1966m6 14.182534  
1966m7 11.986658  
1966m8 11.452567  
1966m9 17.637613  
1966m10 14.078134  
1966m11 16.526404  
1966m12 19.398134  
1967m1 19.862814  
1967m2 22.504749  
1967m3 22.174134  
1967m4 28.194732  
1967m5 41.558018  
1967m6 17.67457  
1967m7 19.297461  
1967m8 12.791635  
1967m9 19.891856  
1967m10 25.898603  
1967m11 29.193496  
1967m12 18.751224  
1968m1 32.950769  
1968m2 23.227138  
1968m3 28.350296  
1968m4 16.857904  
1968m5 23.364486  
1968m6 22.865854  
1968m7 20.211937  
1968m8 19.117848  
1968m9 12.455713  
1968m10 17.468174  
1968m11 29.445135  
1968m12 19.360292  
1969m1 22.038567  
1969m2 18.088634  
1969m3 19.123034  
1969m4 15.276929  
1969m5 23.604102  
1969m6 20.505042  
1969m7 16.432889  
1969m8 17.877029  
1969m9 11.914448  
1969m10 21.803328  
1969m11 23.370835  
1969m12 18.847604  
1970m1 23.122039  
1970m2 36.104397  
1970m3 26.00887  
1970m4 20.791797  
1970m5 19.098231  
1970m6 18.97367  
1970m7 32.684594  
1970m8 48.2881  
1970m9 20.718028  
1970m10 22.682809  
1970m11 27.085893  
1970m12 27.294541  
1971m1 26.346072  
1971m2 24.497795  
1971m3 20.774777  
1971m4 17.611617  
1971m5 21.068874  
1971m6 29.392655  
1971m7 27.364035  
1971m8 95.833595  
1971m9 90.21601  
1971m10 67.176821  
1971m11 69.192652  
1971m12 53.950366  
1972m1 42.116107  
1972m2 28.650528  
1972m3 32.202278  
1972m4 26.637757  
1972m5 32.868465  
1972m6 32.055234  
1972m7 27.247093  
1972m8 23.22443  
1972m9 31.42329  
1972m10 28.911662  
1972m11 27.239889  
1972m12 20.588591  
1973m1 26.110444  
1973m2 52.299191  
1973m3 38.205786  
1973m4 37.1824  
1973m5 23.890686  
1973m6 31.738427  
1973m7 27.586207  
1973m8 19.869942  
1973m9 26.876738  
1973m10 26.893354  
1973m11 23.33323  
1973m12 28.074824  
1974m1 25.546409  
1974m2 20.722924  
1974m3 31.789827  
1974m4 25.006331  
1974m5 21.419647  
1974m6 22.528531  
1974m7 26.614735  
1974m8 19.366527  
1974m9 22.620929  
1974m10 29.366851  
1974m11 30.001818  
1974m12 42.458868  
1975m1 90.683467  
1975m2 70.441615  
1975m3 48.968599  
1975m4 39.722257  
1975m5 51.622642  
1975m6 42.258444  
1975m7 32.079787  
1975m8 47.286506  
1975m9 31.356809  
1975m10 26.004421  
1975m11 30.022357  
1975m12 24.396677  
1976m1 26.316644  
1976m2 21.677505  
1976m3 28.746177  
1976m4 19.273911  
1976m5 25.866996  
1976m6 21.732877  
1976m7 25.595086  
1976m8 27.233988  
1976m9 23.394437  
1976m10 25.692954  
1976m11 28.333963  
1976m12 26.960025  
1977m1 28.286295  
1977m2 24.566717  
1977m3 26.652936  
1977m4 36.853876  
1977m5 33.415146  
1977m6 35.65843  
1977m7 25.794535  
1977m8 20.031797  
1977m9 27.279209  
1977m10 46.583399  
1977m11 38.659411  
1977m12 51.098302  
1978m1 49.081697  
1978m2 30.589264  
1978m3 37.639667  
1978m4 39.05459  
1978m5 26.441813  
1978m6 32.792645  
1978m7 40.180202  
1978m8 27.252598  
1978m9 24.234413  
1978m10 23.931743  
1978m11 34.364261  
1978m12 35.092937  
1979m1 30.257186  
1979m2 47.648176  
1979m3 34.96106  
1979m4 47.44993  
1979m5 41.204075  
1979m6 35.37423  
1979m7 36.587194  
1979m8 33.190102  
1979m9 27.447128  
1979m10 39.091062  
1979m11 30.577639  
1979m12 36.322361  
1980m1 34.159587  
1980m2 36.049027  
1980m3 69.253233  
1980m4 50.099309  
1980m5 57.848919  
1980m6 45.760737  
1980m7 35.737685  
1980m8 39.64899  
1980m9 38.501102  
1980m10 45.48211  
1980m11 37.679836  
1980m12 33.738791  
1981m1 32.259757  
1981m2 29.384342  
1981m3 30.680159  
1981m4 22.613131  
1981m5 27.567554  
1981m6 30.932741  
1981m7 26.853283  
1981m8 22.051296  
1981m9 24.103255  
1981m10 32.92456  
1981m11 40.494827  
1981m12 27.791814  
1982m1 43.968698  
1982m2 38.368779  
1982m3 34.47187  
1982m4 39.744797  
1982m5 33.266462  
1982m6 26.41659  
1982m7 36.587613  
1982m8 35.143684  
1982m9 30.566535  
1982m10 42.992476  
1982m11 47.996606  
1982m12 43.673571  
1983m1 44.216434  
1983m2 47.943553  
1983m3 39.36063  
1983m4 33.669141  
1983m5 40.559676  
1983m6 30.909182  
1983m7 38.485725  
1983m8 27.837468  
1983m9 29.90736  
1983m10 26.994876  
1983m11 30.371025  
1983m12 24.386279  
1984m1 25.229186  
1984m2 28.187447  
1984m3 27.873762  
1984m4 29.017749  
1984m5 22.622324  
1984m6 33.738019  
1984m7 32.027034  
1984m8 32.507217  
1984m9 43.422134  
1984m10 28.598665  
1984m11 23.725109  
1984m12 25.772489  
1985m1 26.59244 88.182852
1985m2 30.645161 45.052521
1985m3 42.439081 77.619208
1985m4 42.02379 0
1985m5 31.659582 67.096018
1985m6 34.803326 66.092332
1985m7 50.395429 31.892785
1985m8 41.984177 59.15216
1985m9 60.030251 181.05738
1985m10 36.138472 131.38923
1985m11 39.581438 50.385777
1985m12 44.467208 25.231201
1986m1 40.251376 104.57213
1986m2 41.183392 68.234861
1986m3 40.270821 118.89209
1986m4 43.61628 60.358187
1986m5 41.71588 157.65561
1986m6 41.210594 143.37999
1986m7 32.038759 81.138903
1986m8 37.768814 77.871999
1986m9 49.158038 59.80513
1986m10 43.373721 127.43425
1986m11 44.255445 38.089538
1986m12 33.568141 75.683229
1987m1 51.199847 104.77309
1987m2 48.559818 71.506004
1987m3 64.365256 80.226618
1987m4 83.273907 98.369425
1987m5 43.018902 48.353563
1987m6 44.402232 152.57473
1987m7 47.50262 94.839974
1987m8 30.955189 31.868822
1987m9 36.716807 30.922894
1987m10 44.787094 189.33315
1987m11 50.887178 169.254
1987m12 43.081087 76.201927
1988m1 49.580817 172.2733
1988m2 60.861747 75.166217
1988m3 52.543893 66.904594
1988m4 37.532414 95.164396
1988m5 32.408918 66.506862
1988m6 42.090415 95.252536
1988m7 45.291959 54.730192
1988m8 38.409878 119.38744
1988m9 42.810781 115.2278
1988m10 46.736149 51.212892
1988m11 51.009857 195.88399
1988m12 49.585307 135.38089
1989m1 37.141275 123.91961
1989m2 33.854231 59.007756
1989m3 32.945358 81.766268
1989m4 35.607112 73.63811
1989m5 42.427473 102.38203
1989m6 39.991726 52.809351
1989m7 39.511664 98.097733
1989m8 32.435188 73.170376
1989m9 31.65883 63.221732
1989m10 32.902468 58.582868
1989m11 28.658348 88.809733
1989m12 36.859977 83.033242
1990m1 30.920652 114.02776
1990m2 30.685625 99.9866
1990m3 36.76701 77.854598
1990m4 36.441399 52.429529
1990m5 37.74057 253.07652
1990m6 40.41469 255.25404
1990m7 39.868876 138.85933
1990m8 34.012132 32.894956
1990m9 33.189222 131.69173
1990m10 30.095982 67.845103
1990m11 35.441658 132.49747
1990m12 41.611625 182.43866
1991m1 32.899384 82.922818
1991m2 31.285802 163.71408
1991m3 33.235622 145.42075
1991m4 39.74462 84.347622
1991m5 42.744521 103.92999
1991m6 39.26646 55.047534
1991m7 44.008631 63.037488
1991m8 33.826272 37.446233
1991m9 33.191289 45.505327
1991m10 35.720773 56.27157
1991m11 38.609201 66.552839
1991m12 41.897909 208.07854
1992m1 51.127564 152.65765
1992m2 42.272127 122.43147
1992m3 33.276864 170.39947
1992m4 39.768089 98.325517
1992m5 33.890599 147.68008
1992m6 39.016188 98.002117
1992m7 50.34085 125.74218
1992m8 54.207482 331.50776
1992m9 45.732689 307.41822
1992m10 49.294646 421.50342
1992m11 65.301276 330.04091
1992m12 46.451215 113.98967
1993m1 52.84246 204.89092
1993m2 58.234908 126.43855
1993m3 41.168289 145.89814
1993m4 46.748119 157.78882
1993m5 43.887147 254.65171
1993m6 44.331493 214.49946
1993m7 54.697804 395.396
1993m8 43.615552 607.22135
1993m9 51.397551 770.24358
1993m10 51.788574 375.67861
1993m11 94.972682 1094.1557
1993m12 72.20484 547.78783
1994m1 37.686151 229.38595
1994m2 49.538149 135.85284
1994m3 52.282957 201.73326
1994m4 46.23446 349.28602
1994m5 52.021521 229.35692
1994m6 36.224552 190.97221
1994m7 37.836408 380.75038
1994m8 32.893341 249.04316
1994m9 38.720364 154.25452
1994m10 38.391082 233.29628
1994m11 59.415272 631.93826
1994m12 44.797688 391.57193
1995m1 40.023226 542.58161
1995m2 38.488533 236.57198
1995m3 31.65565 176.96407
1995m4 35.362726 84.646776
1995m5 60.576293 100.01796
1995m6 60.378624 150.68315
1995m7 38.820713 49.870117
1995m8 26.043391 59.919934
1995m9 30.609896 29.87241
1995m10 28.05633 173.22455
1995m11 30.506667 92.144653
1995m12 31.212907 53.75006
1996m1 39.438329 54.175912
1996m2 45.671392 188.09664
1996m3 39.662122 122.33913
1996m4 33.975085 44.414413
1996m5 37.472629 58.354116
1996m6 33.628069 85.373992
1996m7 30.547777 44.803916
1996m8 29.094232 43.385994
1996m9 25.543992 55.570894
1996m10 26.467757 87.78832
1996m11 29.231359 85.971928
1996m12 33.489966 133.86641
1997m1 26.794308 31.758297
1997m2 35.15929 94.739924
1997m3 30.29109 54.65596
1997m4 32.08636 87.81305
1997m5 33.638991 115.69392
1997m6 34.366024 47.822084
1997m7 30.627484 156.31211
1997m8 27.380055 82.939177
1997m9 33.760158 93.040991
1997m10 36.763058 94.6
1997m11 47.080534 170.14707
1997m12 31.967174 56.183701
1998m1 30.686003 69.717518
1998m2 25.529681 41.492694
1998m3 29.842415 37.130894
1998m4 30.766467 75.918786
1998m5 25.65857 112.76375
1998m6 33.537316 55.25165
1998m7 36.331247 44.386459
1998m8 32.313961 49.43104
1998m9 32.450704 81.025528
1998m10 33.767696 88.945046
1998m11 30.20467 118.02522
1998m12 35.700211 63.345456
1999m1 34.19078 79.678915
1999m2 34.410533 76.152466
1999m3 39.113429 116.2385
1999m4 34.927216 117.99096
1999m5 30.320596 25.951763
1999m6 33.049186 59.943566
1999m7 31.695721 55.23436
1999m8 32.253474 53.717997
1999m9 30.385191 48.92379
1999m10 32.639739 48.885337
1999m11 48.941955 144.93887
1999m12 41.58354 133.98122
2000m1 32.117348 90.510134
2000m2 28.175856 54.319501
2000m3 36.838506 95.127123
2000m4 35.28104 89.079945
2000m5 49.327563 276.51208
2000m6 27.366881 34.296707
2000m7 31.944444 56.819625
2000m8 29.212618 36.6265
2000m9 33.431747 126.13991
2000m10 25.481138 67.217347
2000m11 26.904864 154.48617
2000m12 29.816674 126.95063
2001m1 25.987872 94.896664
2001m2 20.646276 50.768167
2001m3 25.078636 30.147835
2001m4 34.314735 100.53143
2001m5 27.793338 22.55873
2001m6 30.159709 48.39122
2001m7 34.298957 57.217349
2001m8 28.285616 53.309452
2001m9 24.12961 159.73638
2001m10 24.04201 107.18756
2001m11 33.660466 100.33698
2001m12 34.288913 111.37645
2002m1 31.634129 74.002101
2002m2 31.948882 29.179756
2002m3 53.877445 53.563201
2002m4 36.553405 14.093724
2002m5 41.123304 37.386273
2002m6 39.78325 47.826308
2002m7 40.610592 77.877328
2002m8 34.508024 66.194298
2002m9 27.687001 17.051742
2002m10 32.545754 53.464887
2002m11 31.854725 26.031863
2002m12 24.72299 37.522857
2003m1 25.274534 47.874361
2003m2 31.573777 61.170548
2003m3 23.274662 82.734224
2003m4 16.249808 41.690633
2003m5 28.598665 40.459283
2003m6 32.85968 36.635319
2003m7 28.434941 29.562099
2003m8 24.551592 44.972589
2003m9 39.80838 110.78593
2003m10 31.404585 49.157887
2003m11 50.179053 122.81057
2003m12 46.644149 51.411668
2004m1 30.879174 44.994394
2004m2 35.399033 63.445654
2004m3 27.123606 54.675963
2004m4 28.383892 38.069187
2004m5 30.995395 72.890348
2004m6 22.941568 31.055828
2004m7 34.254448 21.921611
2004m8 28.872398 30.324889
2004m9 28.531327 26.613792
2004m10 29.358821 60.055101
2004m11 31.062332 35.225421
2004m12 30.100649 32.227945
2005m1 27.609428 11.393462
2005m2 19.917451 25.289953
2005m3 23.082116 35.358689
2005m4 31.504272 61.055913
2005m5 33.325828 124.17737
2005m6 38.649121 64.124452
2005m7 34.02699 94.361283
2005m8 22.787786 32.888339
2005m9 22.904363 21.041502
2005m10 34.356789 38.303338
2005m11 28.042109 20.699817
2005m12 32.108372 39.96039
2006m1 23.662386 18.058752
2006m2 24.286582 24.057434
2006m3 24.32237 49.19917
2006m4 26.573229 22.398957
2006m5 27.0539 38.070215
2006m6 26.841565 35.230522
2006m7 30.907423 47.156181
2006m8 20.984357 38.521195
2006m9 26.787603 31.74303
2006m10 23.693474 18.493825
2006m11 25.997929 37.885408
2006m12 26.975795 14.865618
2007m1 22.502573 56.608274
2007m2 27.555304 19.714139
2007m3 26.706231 13.183098
2007m4 30.437474 18.476312
2007m5 29.711493 13.230777
2007m6 34.274566 21.754072
2007m7 24.370641 16.80326
2007m8 23.173828 51.509718
2007m9 18.99715 23.227363
2007m10 25.882296 50.626428
2007m11 27.370913 31.382559
2007m12 21.819882 54.672595
2008m1 27.870823 70.120342
2008m2 24.886818 76.723369
2008m3 25.979318 67.264295
2008m4 31.776626 98.931362
2008m5 25.636424 36.147204
2008m6 34.376259 30.224357
2008m7 32.968231 29.00764
2008m8 25.969257 41.373741
2008m9 29.582587 26.366196
2008m10 31.707254 54.197181
2008m11 28.878461 57.85648
2008m12 31.325301 31.940341
2009m1 23.314049 62.765118
2009m2 26.204143 30.992523
2009m3 34.148619 53.067049
2009m4 22.991809 13.351495
2009m5 21.321355 22.436736
2009m6 21.150074 38.866504
2009m7 24.699539 21.187122
2009m8 29.128595 38.294377
2009m9 37.136867 31.91049
2009m10 28.322128 17.129926
2009m11 27.936317 38.893849
2009m12 31.115441 18.371926
2010m1 24.490808 67.56485
2010m2 18.847337 48.271759
2010m3 28.556673 55.994537
2010m4 25.487728 24.992722
2010m5 21.410693 68.379621
2010m6 27.382768 37.691676
2010m7 28.694405 46.410526
2010m8 29.78942 61.384997
2010m9 31.495552 56.403172
2010m10 31.012989 66.761284
2010m11 30.492857 72.396977
2010m12 32.209941 93.190866
2011m1 30.238887 66.757477
2011m2 24.952297 34.447361
2011m3 29.947751 50.767551
2011m4 31.694101 32.034236
2011m5 20.822139 21.356157
2011m6 29.773988 44.873471
2011m7 30.57254 80.117572
2011m8 30.831003 60.412454
2011m9 21.235058 159.81844
2011m10 36.765913 118.55633
2011m11 36.383237 22.252492
2011m12 30.966289 45.120341
2012m1 29.719689 80.350472
2012m2 23.255814 22.422021
2012m3 27.713626 24.932718
2012m4 21.945867 28.608483
2012m5 28.60195 36.031367
2012m6 20.717479 39.36734
2012m7 29.370787 62.446119
2012m8 20.969405 80.117572
2012m9 22.710068 49.509913
2012m10 27.777778 71.278734
2012m11 27.588636 16.97029
2012m12 25.884869 36.907528
2013m1 22.872624 24.028307
2013m2 28.59686 45.991309
2013m3 31.86308 73.474313
2013m4 11.299124 32.366667
2013m5 33.647719 19.356136
2013m6 26.863846 34.864761
2013m7 24.472063 54.280773
2013m8 20.349087 40.948559
2013m9 25.629941 60.039905
2013m10 33.370412 52.862275
2013m11 26.026086 15.794924
2013m12 21.482277 13.771242
2014m1 23.008689 33.099053
2014m2 26.799387 189.06077
2014m3 27.133126 145.3895
2014m4 24.473669 17.94305
2014m5 16.783804 22.717341
2014m6 27.614024 13.674677
2014m7 20.208605 29.845956
2014m8 22.245148 16.178013
2014m9 19.87131 15.839016
2014m10 21.015148 12.232163
2014m11 25.030099 5.4197181
2014m12 28.699306 5.4667626
2015m1 26.612767 15.630579
2015m2 25.192705 5.5416467
2015m3 20.873134 15.053177
2015m4 21.367521 37.398382
2015m5 43.439847 77.777465
2015m6 44.503111 52.978308
2015m7 26.478705 47.217293
2015m8 35.422343 19.661831
2015m9 29.247249 27.500998
2015m10 53.252187 68.013251
2015m11 30.720786 28.754037
2015m12 31.821493 35.341986
2016m1 36.033439 39.558596
2016m2 32.20795 30.522187
2016m3 54.326737 43.236752
2016m4 46.850408 20.132682
2016m5 57.421329 48.528351
2016m6 74.691305 143.01287
2016m7 46.107947 84.404204
2016m8 43.670195 156.77015
2016m9 44.245975 62.758027
2016m10 50.460197 71.257724
2016m11 111.29687 325.79209
2016m12 105.83834 105.52744
2017m1 166.421 302.1829
2017m2 122.70262 185.79161
2017m3 90.582184 140.21574
2017m4 97.092213 125.13448
2017m5 54.455914 94.143008
2017m6 60.115497 86.493724
2017m7 65.977351 63.719942
2017m8 54.825645 96.256472
2017m9 51.304181 82.301781
2017m10 47.737444 114.55383
2017m11 44.029494 47.220421
2017m12 46.752104 148.04927
2018m1 73.7322 271.51865
2018m2 57.588482 51.245199
2018m3 261.46525 342.12666
2018m4 174.08014 279.55274
2018m5 152.13839 197.97501
2018m6 228.53264 318.9378
2018m7 246.28279 535.48039
2018m8 225.75058 313.4033
2018m9 150.08306 186.89466
2018m10 155.1481 386.28935
2018m11 144.79086 209.83294
2018m12 164.60661 324.84267
2019m1 141.32471 460.18325
2019m2 127.74974 165.64373
2019m3 94.383702 192.40428
2019m4 91.441289 131.38926
2019m5 190.36428 230.84489
2019m6 269.11406 635.3806
2019m7 148.42595 199.43326
2019m8 262.91138  

Note: News-based TPU from Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino, and Raffo (2019) compared with the categorical trade policy uncertainty index of Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016).

Source: Authors’ calculations, www.policyuncertainty.com

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Last Update: September 04, 2019