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Economic Restrictions during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Measures of Small Business Health, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Relationship between State-level Restrictions and Small Business Operations

Upper-Left Figure
% of businesses with reduced operations

State Share of firms with reduced operations, August 16, 2020 Oxford Stringency Index, August 9, 2020
AK 29.7 51.39
AL 17.8 36.11
AR 16 40.74
AZ 20 58.33
CA 23.4 60.19
CO 18.2 47.22
CT 19.8 58.33
DE 15.2 62.04
FL 23.9 50.46
GA 17 48.15
HI 39.6 79.63
IA 10.9 26.85
ID 6.7 43.98
IL 21.7 50
IN 13.2 43.52
KS 14.8 42.59
KY 26.1 60.19
LA 21.9 53.7
MA 23.6 59.26
MD 18.2 51.39
ME 17.5 75
MI 18.3 58.33
MN 14.8 50
MO 14.6 42.13
MT 9 49.07
NC 17.9 58.33
ND 15.8 35.19
NE 13.1 37.5
NH 21.3 41.67
NJ 23.4 53.7
NM 18.1 80.56
NV 25.3 50.93
NY 29.2 69.44
OH 15.3 61.11
OK 20.2 29.17
OR 17.1 60.19
PA 24.7 48.61
RI 21.6 60.19
SC 16.7 44.44
TN 15.4 49.07
TX 21.9 53.24
UT 16.1 43.06
VA 18.6 53.24
VT 20.2 60.19
WA 17.2 56.94
WI 14 37.5
Figure 1. Relationship between State-level Restrictions and Small Business Operations

Upper-Right Figure
% of businesses with reduced operations

State Share of firms with reduced operations, January 4, 2021 Oxford Stringency Index, December 28, 2020
AK 20.1 62.5
AL 11 29.63
AR 9.3 37.04
AZ 9.1 39.81
CA 22.1 60.65
CO 15.5 43.52
CT 19.2 64.81
DE 25.3 55.56
FL 14.9 33.8
GA 11.8 45.37
HI 34.1 75.93
IA 8.3 25.93
ID 7 48.15
IL 20.1 58.33
IN 13.8 43.98
KS 8.5 44.91
KY 15.9 50
LA 19.2 44.44
MA 22 69.44
MD 20.1 57.41
ME 23.2 52.78
MI 19.2 50
MN 17.4 66.67
MO 10.1 40.74
MS 11.9 39.35
MT 11.7 37.96
NC 15.8 56.48
ND 22.9 30.09
NE 9.9 26.85
NH 6.1 46.3
NJ 20.1 46.3
NM 24.2 72.22
NV 23.9 37.04
NY 22.6 69.91
OH 13.4 52.78
OK 17.5 32.41
OR 18.8 58.33
PA 21.2 61.11
RI 27.2 62.96
SC 12.1 35.19
TN 16.5 50.93
TX 17.7 48.15
UT 15.5 27.78
VA 16.8 50
VT 20.5 66.67
WA 18.4 62.04
WI 16.5 47.69
WV 19.5 48.15
WY 20.4 50.93
Figure 1. Relationship between State-level Restrictions and Small Business Operations

Lower-Left Figure
% of businesses with reduced operations

State Share of firms with reduced operations, March 22, 2021 Oxford Stringency Index, March15, 2021
AK 16.4 44.91
AL 8.1 32.41
AR 7.7 26.85
AZ 14.5 32.41
CA 17.1 55.09
CO 13.9 42.13
CT 15.5 59.26
DE 11.5 42.59
FL 9.5 31.94
GA 12.1 37.96
HI 23.6 74.07
IA 7.1 20.37
ID 8.2 32.41
IL 15 46.3
IN 8.8 35.65
KS 8.5 36.57
KY 10.1 48.15
LA 15.8 43.06
MA 19 62.96
MD 11.1 43.52
ME 11.2 43.52
MI 13.8 49.07
MN 11.3 51.85
MO 9.3 43.06
MT 9.2 31.02
NC 13 52.78
ND 13.3 18.52
NE 8.9 26.85
NH 11.3 44.44
NJ 15.5 51.85
NM 17.4 55.09
NV 17.1 40.74
NY 18.3 58.8
OH 11.6 37.04
OK 10.6 37.96
OR 13.7 58.33
PA 14.9 29.63
RI 11.1 56.48
SC 7.3 33.33
TN 7.7 39.35
TX 11.9 35.65
UT 6.1 19.44
VA 12 40.74
VT 12.1 66.67
WA 18 57.41
WI 9.7 42.13
WV 9.8 44.44
Figure 1. Relationship between State-level Restrictions and Small Business Operations

Lower-Right Figure
% of businesses with reduced operations

State Share of firms with reduced operations, July 5, 2021 Oxford Stringency Index, June 28, 2021
AL 7.7 11.11
AZ 6.6 15.74
CA 10.1 30.56
CO 5.3 28.24
CT 10.1 11.11
FL 8.8 8.33
GA 5.8 24.07
HI 19.8 53.7
IA 5.9 12.96
IL 8.1 14.81
IN 6.1 23.61
KS 5.6 21.3
KY 10 20.37
LA 11.2 39.81
MA 8 20.37
MD 9.3 20.37
MI 7.1 14.81
MN 6.7 22.22
MO 8.5 17.59
NC 5 17.59
NH 8.7 18.52
NJ 8.4 16.67
NV 7.9 14.81
NY 13.3 28.7
OH 4.9 14.81
OK 9.1 32.41
OR 6.8 51.85
PA 8.7 11.11
SC 4.7 18.52
TN 5.9 14.81
TX 7.9 24.07
UT 6.7 22.22
VA 7.8 16.67
VT 10 11.11
WA 9.1 43.52
WI 7.2 16.67

Note: The charts plot the state-level share of respondents from weekly Small Business Pulse Surveys that report that current operating capacity is below 50 percent relative to pre-pandemic levels against the state-level Oxford Stringency Index at four points during the pandemic. For each of the four charts, Pulse survey data collected in the seven days after the date of the OSI measurement is used.

Source: Census Bureau, Oxford University.

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Figure 2: Relationship between State-level Restrictions and Small Business Loan Default Rates

Left Figure
Change in default rate

State Change in the PayNet 12-month trailing default rates between February 2020 and July July 2021 Oxford Stringency Index, December 28, 2020
AK 0.27 62.5
AL -0.34 29.63
AR -0.55 37.04
AZ 0.23 39.81
CA 0.61 60.65
CO 0.5 43.52
CT 0.61 64.81
DE 0.42 55.56
FL -0.24 33.8
GA -0.65 45.37
HI 0.73 75.93
IA -0.13 25.93
ID 0.15 48.15
IL 0.64 58.33
IN 0.12 43.98
KS 0.32 44.91
KY 0.02 50
LA -0.64 44.44
MA 0.39 69.44
MD 0.62 57.41
ME 0.28 52.78
MI 0.05 50
MN 0.05 66.67
MO 0.02 40.74
MS -0.47 39.35
MT 0.29 37.96
NC 0.07 56.48
ND 0.37 30.09
NE -0.06 26.85
NH 0.43 46.3
NJ 0.42 46.3
NM 0.3 72.22
NV 0.69 37.04
NY 1.02 69.91
OH 0.28 52.78
OK 0.36 32.41
OR 0.74 58.33
PA 0.28 61.11
RI 0.59 62.96
SC 0.15 35.19
SD 0.35 9.26
TN -0.48 50.93
TX 0.14 48.15
UT 0.14 27.78
VA -0.19 50
VT 0.54 66.67
WA 0.55 62.04
WI 0.02 47.69
WV 0.32 48.15
WY 0.36 50.93
Figure 2: Relationship between State-level Restrictions and Small Business Loan Default Rates

Right Figure
Change in default rate

State Change in the PayNet 12-month trailing default rates between February 2020 and July July 2021 Oxford Stringency Index, June 28, 2021
AK 0.27 33.8
AL -0.34 11.11
AR -0.55 26.85
AZ 0.23 15.74
CA 0.61 30.56
CO 0.5 28.24
CT 0.61 11.11
DE 0.42 29.63
FL -0.24 8.33
GA -0.65 24.07
HI 0.73 53.7
IA -0.13 12.96
ID 0.15 18.52
IL 0.64 14.81
IN 0.12 23.61
KS 0.32 21.3
KY 0.02 20.37
LA -0.64 39.81
MA 0.39 20.37
MD 0.62 20.37
ME 0.28 20.37
MI 0.05 14.81
MN 0.05 22.22
MO 0.02 17.59
MS -0.47 16.67
MT 0.29 31.02
NC 0.07 17.59
ND 0.37 29.63
NE -0.06 14.81
NH 0.43 18.52
NJ 0.42 16.67
NM 0.3 36.11
NV 0.69 14.81
NY 1.02 28.7
OH 0.28 14.81
OK 0.36 32.41
OR 0.74 51.85
PA 0.28 11.11
RI 0.59 44.44
SC 0.15 18.52
SD 0.35 9.26
TN -0.48 14.81
TX 0.14 24.07
UT 0.14 22.22
VA -0.19 16.67
VT 0.54 11.11
WA 0.55 43.52
WI 0.02 16.67
WV 0.32 11.11
WY 0.36 19.44

Note: The charts plot the state-level change in small business 12-month trailing default rates between February 2020 and July 2021 against the state-level Oxford Stringency Index in December 2020 and June 2021.

Source: PayNet, Oxford University.

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Last Update: June 01, 2022