The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Securities Holdings on Longer-term Interest Rates, Accessible Data

Figure 1

10-Year Term Premium Effect
Quarterly
Percentage Points

Period 10-Year Term Premium Effect 90% Confidence Interval Upper Bound 90% Confidence Interval Lower Bound
1 December 2016 -0.99 -0.52 -1.46
1 March 2017 -0.95 -0.49 -1.42
1 June 2017 -0.91 -0.46 -1.37
1 September 2017 -0.88 -0.43 -1.32
1 December 2017 -0.84 -0.40 -1.27
1 March 2018 -0.80 -0.38 -1.22
1 June 2018 -0.76 -0.35 -1.18
1 September 2018 -0.72 -0.32 -1.12
1 December 2018 -0.68 -0.30 -1.07
1 March 2019 -0.65 -0.27 -1.02
1 June 2019 -0.61 -0.25 -0.97
1 September 2019 -0.57 -0.22 -0.92
1 December 2019 -0.54 -0.20 -0.87
1 March 2020 -0.51 -0.18 -0.83
1 June 2020 -0.48 -0.17 -0.79
1 September 2020 -0.45 -0.15 -0.75
1 December 2020 -0.42 -0.14 -0.71
1 March 2021 -0.40 -0.12 -0.67
1 June 2021 -0.37 -0.11 -0.64
1 September 2021 -0.35 -0.10 -0.60
1 December 2021 -0.33 -0.09 -0.57
1 March 2022 -0.31 -0.08 -0.54
1 June 2022 -0.29 -0.07 -0.51
1 September 2022 -0.27 -0.06 -0.48
1 December 2022 -0.26 -0.05 -0.46
1 March 2023 -0.24 -0.05 -0.43
1 June 2023 -0.23 -0.04 -0.41
1 September 2023 -0.21 -0.04 -0.39
1 December 2023 -0.20 -0.03 -0.36
1 March 2024 -0.19 -0.03 -0.34
1 June 2024 -0.18 -0.03 -0.32
1 September 2024 -0.16 -0.03 -0.30
1 December 2024 -0.15 -0.02 -0.29
1 March 2025 -0.14 -0.02 -0.27
1 June 2025 -0.13 -0.02 -0.25
1 September 2025 -0.12 -0.02 -0.23
1 December 2025 -0.11 -0.01 -0.21

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Figure 2

Percent

  2007 2023
Agency MBS 0 51
Treasury Bills 32 1
Treasury Notes/Bonds 63 44
Other 5 4

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Figure 3

Left Panel
10-Year Term Premium Effect
Quarterly

Period 10-Year Term Premium Effect Upper bound Lower bound
1 December 2016 -0.99 -0.52 -1.46
1 March 2017 -0.95 -0.49 -1.42
1 June 2017 -0.91 -0.46 -1.37
1 September 2017 -0.88 -0.43 -1.32
1 December 2017 -0.84 -0.40 -1.27
1 March 2018 -0.80 -0.38 -1.22
1 June 2018 -0.76 -0.35 -1.18
1 September 2018 -0.72 -0.32 -1.12
1 December 2018 -0.68 -0.30 -1.07
1 March 2019 -0.65 -0.27 -1.02
1 June 2019 -0.61 -0.25 -0.97
1 September 2019 -0.57 -0.22 -0.92
1 December 2019 -0.54 -0.20 -0.87
1 March 2020 -0.51 -0.18 -0.83
1 June 2020 -0.48 -0.17 -0.79
1 September 2020 -0.45 -0.15 -0.75
1 December 2020 -0.42 -0.14 -0.71
1 March 2021 -0.40 -0.12 -0.67
1 June 2021 -0.37 -0.11 -0.64
1 September 2021 -0.35 -0.10 -0.60
1 December 2021 -0.33 -0.09 -0.57
1 March 2022 -0.31 -0.08 -0.54
1 June 2022 -0.29 -0.07 -0.51
1 September 2022 -0.27 -0.06 -0.48
1 December 2022 -0.26 -0.05 -0.46
1 March 2023 -0.24 -0.05 -0.43
1 June 2023 -0.23 -0.04 -0.41
1 September 2023 -0.21 -0.04 -0.39
1 December 2023 -0.20 -0.03 -0.36
1 March 2024 -0.19 -0.03 -0.34
1 June 2024 -0.18 -0.03 -0.32
1 September 2024 -0.16 -0.03 -0.30
1 December 2024 -0.15 -0.02 -0.29
1 March 2025 -0.14 -0.02 -0.27
1 June 2025 -0.13 -0.02 -0.25
1 September 2025 -0.12 -0.02 -0.23
1 December 2025 -0.11 -0.01 -0.21

Center panel
SOMA Holdings
Monthly

Period Billions of Dollars
1 January 2006 748.82
1 February 2006 754.68
1 March 2006 758.54
1 April 2006 759.69
1 May 2006 762.41
1 June 2006 766.36
1 July 2006 764.81
1 August 2006 766.74
1 September 2006 768.92
1 October 2006 768.49
1 November 2006 772.60
1 December 2006 778.91
1 January 2007 778.86
1 February 2007 780.79
1 March 2007 780.90
1 April 2007 787.19
1 May 2007 790.27
1 June 2007 790.52
1 July 2007 790.80
1 August 2007 779.64
1 September 2007 779.63
1 October 2007 779.59
1 November 2007 779.70
1 December 2007 740.61
1 January 2008 713.38
1 February 2008 713.35
1 March 2008 591.23
1 April 2008 548.69
1 May 2008 486.90
1 June 2008 478.84
1 July 2008 479.24
1 August 2008 479.70
1 September 2008 491.13
1 October 2008 490.09
1 November 2008 488.62
1 December 2008 495.63
1 January 2009 510.79
1 February 2009 581.68
1 March 2009 779.35
1 April 2009 983.18
1 May 2009 1113.52
1 June 2009 1215.52
1 July 2009 1354.07
1 August 2009 1491.50
1 September 2009 1592.70
1 October 2009 1697.80
1 November 2009 1783.76
1 December 2009 1844.84
1 January 2010 1910.42
1 February 2010 1970.83
1 March 2010 2014.39
1 April 2010 2042.12
1 May 2010 2057.14
1 June 2010 2059.88
1 July 2010 2053.99
1 August 2010 2045.95
1 September 2010 2044.31
1 October 2010 2040.23
1 November 2010 2081.47
1 December 2010 2161.09
1 January 2011 2238.30
1 February 2011 2319.84
1 March 2011 2410.10
1 April 2011 2472.32
1 May 2011 2567.25
1 June 2011 2645.10
1 July 2011 2647.93
1 August 2011 2646.83
1 September 2011 2643.81
1 October 2011 2619.75
1 November 2011 2605.00
1 December 2011 2605.12
1 January 2012 2597.45
1 February 2012 2603.21
1 March 2012 2594.40
1 April 2012 2603.40
1 May 2012 2606.44
1 June 2012 2606.40
1 July 2012 2589.00
1 August 2012 2573.34
1 September 2012 2563.68
1 October 2012 2579.27
1 November 2012 2620.64
1 December 2012 2669.59
1 January 2013 2750.98
1 February 2013 2844.07
1 March 2013 2939.42
1 April 2013 3036.42
1 May 2013 3124.08
1 June 2013 3213.90
1 July 2013 3295.89
1 August 2013 3385.57
1 September 2013 3475.02
1 October 2013 3570.52
1 November 2013 3661.90
1 December 2013 3756.16
1 January 2014 3831.69
1 February 2014 3904.80
1 March 2014 3970.06
1 April 2014 4027.11
1 May 2014 4066.82
1 June 2014 4108.14
1 July 2014 4136.79
1 August 2014 4156.86
1 September 2014 4188.17
1 October 2014 4219.16
1 November 2014 4230.13
1 December 2014 4236.87
1 January 2015 4237.01
1 February 2015 4237.20
1 March 2015 4228.37
1 April 2015 4214.81
1 May 2015 4219.05
1 June 2015 4228.91
1 July 2015 4231.48
1 August 2015 4233.68
1 September 2015 4238.27
1 October 2015 4240.02
1 November 2015 4239.34
1 December 2015 4241.96
1 January 2016 4236.81
1 February 2016 4244.28
1 March 2016 4243.67
1 April 2016 4233.35
1 May 2016 4229.91
1 June 2016 4230.97
1 July 2016 4226.42
1 August 2016 4230.12
1 September 2016 4220.83
1 October 2016 4217.90
1 November 2016 4223.03
1 December 2016 4214.76
1 January 2017 4214.05
1 February 2017 4214.47
1 March 2017 4214.47
1 April 2017 4213.93
1 May 2017 4213.38
1 June 2017 4214.53
1 July 2017 4216.97
1 August 2017 4219.19
1 September 2017 4224.24
1 October 2017 4227.27
1 November 2017 4225.42
1 December 2017 4226.48
1 January 2018 4229.87
1 February 2018 4231.21
1 March 2018 4230.03
1 April 2018 4229.22
1 May 2018 4229.84
1 June 2018 4221.12
1 July 2018 4213.95
1 August 2018 4204.28
1 September 2018 4195.98
1 October 2018 4183.48
1 November 2018 4154.36
1 December 2018 4137.09
1 January 2019 4122.74
1 February 2019 4081.10
1 March 2019 4052.71
1 April 2019 4018.07
1 May 2019 3958.84
1 June 2019 3923.23
1 July 2019 3887.87
1 August 2019 3803.90
1 September 2019 3776.65
1 October 2019 3745.46
1 November 2019 3682.14
1 December 2019 3654.91
1 January 2020 3623.35
1 February 2020 3551.57
1 March 2020 3515.10
1 April 2020 3484.05
1 May 2020 3403.70
1 June 2020 3367.16
1 July 2020 3332.20
1 August 2020 3255.47
1 September 2020 3229.73
1 October 2020 3210.68
1 November 2020 3169.00
1 December 2020 3147.89
1 January 2021 3123.02
1 February 2021 3058.80
1 March 2021 3033.51
1 April 2021 3004.60
1 May 2021 2925.52
1 June 2021 2906.03
1 July 2021 2889.06
1 August 2021 2833.61
1 September 2021 2820.16
1 October 2021 2806.57
1 November 2021 2731.88
1 December 2021 2717.13
1 January 2022 2701.43
1 February 2022 2635.73
1 March 2022 2621.14
1 April 2022 2605.59
1 May 2022 2544.46
1 June 2022 2529.30
1 July 2022 2514.15
1 August 2022 2453.14
1 September 2022 2439.57
1 October 2022 2426.84
1 November 2022 2377.29
1 December 2022 2362.11
1 January 2023 2343.92
1 February 2023 2305.41
1 March 2023 2312.24
1 April 2023 2319.66
1 May 2023 2326.86
1 June 2023 2334.29
1 July 2023 2341.57
1 August 2023 2349.06
1 September 2023 2356.51
1 October 2023 2363.88
1 November 2023 2371.48
1 December 2023 2378.84
1 January 2024 2386.46
1 February 2024 2394.07
1 March 2024 2401.25
1 April 2024 2408.88
1 May 2024 2416.30
1 June 2024 2423.93
1 July 2024 2431.41
1 August 2024 2439.12
1 September 2024 2446.83
1 October 2024 2454.46
1 November 2024 2462.31
1 December 2024 2469.91
1 January 2025 2477.88
1 February 2025 2485.83
1 March 2025 2493.08
1 April 2025 2500.95
1 May 2025 2508.60
1 June 2025 2516.48
1 July 2025 2524.21
1 August 2025 2532.17
1 September 2025 2540.12
1 October 2025 2547.98
1 November 2025 2556.09
1 December 2025 2563.94

Right panel
Reserve Balances
Monthly

Period Billions of Dollars
1 January 2006 22.25
1 February 2006 24.24
1 March 2006 21.02
1 April 2006 21.41
1 May 2006 23.40
1 June 2006 20.96
1 July 2006 24.49
1 August 2006 19.53
1 September 2006 17.33
1 October 2006 20.00
1 November 2006 20.38
1 December 2006 18.70
1 January 2007 24.23
1 February 2007 22.91
1 March 2007 18.33
1 April 2007 17.83
1 May 2007 21.90
1 June 2007 17.29
1 July 2007 21.54
1 August 2007 12.77
1 September 2007 23.01
1 October 2007 20.72
1 November 2007 17.91
1 December 2007 20.77
1 January 2008 17.66
1 February 2008 20.26
1 March 2008 24.16
1 April 2008 20.30
1 May 2008 18.77
1 June 2008 33.50
1 July 2008 23.22
1 August 2008 20.17
1 September 2008 222.06
1 October 2008 501.31
1 November 2008 642.25
1 December 2008 860.00
1 January 2009 691.99
1 February 2009 685.58
1 March 2009 805.21
1 April 2009 718.62
1 May 2009 877.70
1 June 2009 660.54
1 July 2009 703.15
1 August 2009 783.48
1 September 2009 848.09
1 October 2009 1113.54
1 November 2009 1081.68
1 December 2009 976.99
1 January 2010 1153.99
1 February 2010 1225.13
1 March 2010 1053.88
1 April 2010 1003.07
1 May 2010 1082.73
1 June 2010 972.34
1 July 2010 1079.10
1 August 2010 984.28
1 September 2010 932.44
1 October 2010 1009.66
1 November 2010 965.89
1 December 2010 968.05
1 January 2011 1043.44
1 February 2011 1255.65
1 March 2011 1406.98
1 April 2011 1481.15
1 May 2011 1552.05
1 June 2011 1595.94
1 July 2011 1614.46
1 August 2011 1592.00
1 September 2011 1592.41
1 October 2011 1539.40
1 November 2011 1487.25
1 December 2011 1562.25
1 January 2012 1532.30
1 February 2012 1607.11
1 March 2012 1546.87
1 April 2012 1440.65
1 May 2012 1467.05
1 June 2012 1506.98
1 July 2012 1497.54
1 August 2012 1514.78
1 September 2012 1437.32
1 October 2012 1434.40
1 November 2012 1516.87
1 December 2012 1491.04
1 January 2013 1599.21
1 February 2013 1695.14
1 March 2013 1787.31
1 April 2013 1771.11
1 May 2013 2004.95
1 June 2013 2013.26
1 July 2013 2120.84
1 August 2013 2267.38
1 September 2013 2220.74
1 October 2013 2377.37
1 November 2013 2485.20
1 December 2013 2249.07
1 January 2014 2524.80
1 February 2014 2608.27
1 March 2014 2430.06
1 April 2014 2514.44
1 May 2014 2664.83
1 June 2014 2363.42
1 July 2014 2690.41
1 August 2014 2761.89
1 September 2014 2537.85
1 October 2014 2519.84
1 November 2014 2416.55
1 December 2014 2378.00
1 January 2015 2665.59
1 February 2015 2513.02
1 March 2015 2437.28
1 April 2015 2508.28
1 May 2015 2400.86
1 June 2015 2242.47
1 July 2015 2563.64
1 August 2015 2596.55
1 September 2015 2197.66
1 October 2015 2596.44
1 November 2015 2425.13
1 December 2015 1977.17
1 January 2016 2329.31
1 February 2016 2407.37
1 March 2016 2125.36
1 April 2016 2342.41
1 May 2016 2317.12
1 June 2016 2038.27
1 July 2016 2274.55
1 August 2016 2230.61
1 September 2016 1923.02
1 October 2016 2042.23
1 November 2016 2015.31
1 December 2016 2414.28
1 January 2017 2407.50
1 February 2017 2402.06
1 March 2017 2396.12
1 April 2017 2388.85
1 May 2017 2382.27
1 June 2017 2377.75
1 July 2017 2374.33
1 August 2017 2370.61
1 September 2017 2369.73
1 October 2017 2366.47
1 November 2017 2358.04
1 December 2017 2352.67
1 January 2018 2349.34
1 February 2018 2344.15
1 March 2018 2337.15
1 April 2018 2329.96
1 May 2018 2324.42
1 June 2018 2309.37
1 July 2018 2295.80
1 August 2018 2279.59
1 September 2018 2264.73
1 October 2018 2245.59
1 November 2018 2209.54
1 December 2018 2185.57
1 January 2019 2164.22
1 February 2019 2115.60
1 March 2019 2080.85
1 April 2019 2039.29
1 May 2019 1973.27
1 June 2019 1930.67
1 July 2019 1888.39
1 August 2019 1797.25
1 September 2019 1762.92
1 October 2019 1724.72
1 November 2019 1654.21
1 December 2019 1620.00
1 January 2020 1581.27
1 February 2020 1502.34
1 March 2020 1459.10
1 April 2020 1420.91
1 May 2020 1333.61
1 June 2020 1289.95
1 July 2020 1248.02
1 August 2020 1164.14
1 September 2020 1131.34
1 October 2020 1105.30
1 November 2020 1056.42
1 December 2020 1028.35
1 January 2021 996.23
1 February 2021 924.78
1 March 2021 892.87
1 April 2021 856.80
1 May 2021 770.76
1 June 2021 744.15
1 July 2021 720.19
1 August 2021 657.57
1 September 2021 637.00
1 October 2021 616.35
1 November 2021 534.40
1 December 2021 521.03
1 January 2022 506.39
1 February 2022 441.77
1 March 2022 428.88
1 April 2022 414.45
1 May 2022 354.65
1 June 2022 340.60
1 July 2022 326.71
1 August 2022 266.74
1 September 2022 254.25
1 October 2022 242.66
1 November 2022 194.04
1 December 2022 171.68
1 January 2023 145.99
1 February 2023 100.00
1 March 2023 100.00
1 April 2023 100.00
1 May 2023 100.00
1 June 2023 100.00
1 July 2023 100.00
1 August 2023 100.00
1 September 2023 100.00
1 October 2023 100.00
1 November 2023 100.00
1 December 2023 100.00
1 January 2024 100.00
1 February 2024 100.00
1 March 2024 100.00
1 April 2024 100.00
1 May 2024 100.00
1 June 2024 100.00
1 July 2024 100.00
1 August 2024 100.00
1 September 2024 100.00
1 October 2024 100.00
1 November 2024 100.00
1 December 2024 100.00
1 January 2025 100.00
1 February 2025 100.00
1 March 2025 100.00
1 April 2025 100.00
1 May 2025 100.00
1 June 2025 100.00
1 July 2025 100.00
1 August 2025 100.00
1 September 2025 100.00
1 October 2025 100.00
1 November 2025 100.00
1 December 2025 100.00

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Last Update: April 20, 2017