Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1. Natural Gas Imports from Russia to the EU

Line chart shows two data series: 2022 and historical average. The vertical axis shows billion cubic meters, and the horizontal axis shows the 12 months of the year. The first series is a red line showing natural gas imports for each month of 2022. It increases from around 9 1/4 billion cubic meters in January and February to 12 billion in March; declines gradually through September, reaching 4.2 billion; and then fluctuates between 4.2 and 4.9 billion over the remainder of the year. The second series is a gray dashed line showing the historical averages for each month, which are the average values of those months over the period 2015 to 2021. The historical average increases slightly over the year, from 10.5 billion cubic meters in January to 11.8 billion in December.

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Figure 2. Natural Gas Flows in the EU in the Second Half of 2022

Bar chart with two bars for each type of natural gas flow in the EU: change in inventories, consumption, imports from Russia, net imports ex-Russia, and production. The first bar, in gray, shows average second-half flows over the years 2015 to 2021, and the second bar, in red, shows natural gas flows in the second half of 2022. The vertical axis shows billion cubic meters. For the change in inventories, the first pair of bars, the gray bar is negative at -10.9 billion and the red bar is positive at 28.2 billion. For consumption, the second pair of bars, the gray bar is taller than the red bar and they have values of 185.1 and 155.2 billion, respectively. For imports from Russia, the third pair of bars, the gray bar is also taller than the red bar and they have values of 68.1 and 28.8 billion, respectively. For net imports ex-Russia, the fourth pair of bars, the gray bar is shorter than the red bar and they have values of 92.3 and 133.4 billion, respectively. Finally, for production, the fifth and last pair of bars, the gray bar is slightly taller than the red bar and they have values of 35.7 and 22.7, respectively.

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Figure 3. Natural Gas Consumption in the EU in the Second Half of 2022

Bar chart with three bars: historical average (in gray), 2022 (in red), and 2022 counterfactual (in blue). The vertical axis shows billion cubic meters. The first bar is the tallest of the three and corresponds to 185.1 billion cubic meters. The second bar corresponds to 155.2 billion, and the third bar corresponds to 167.9 billion. The figure also includes a horizontal gray line above the red line at 185.1 billion and a vertical curly bracket with the label 29.9, which is the difference between 185.1 and 155.2 billion, the latter being the value corresponding to the red bar. There is also a horizontal red line crossing the blue bar at 155.2 billion and a vertical curly bracket with the label 12.7, which is the difference between 167.2, the value showed by the blue bar, and 155.2 billion.

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Figure 4. Natural Gas Inventories in the EU (End of Period)

Line chart shows three series over the period January 2022 to June 2024 (average 2015-2021, baseline, and storage capacity) and two series over the period July 2023 to June 2024 (harsh winter and adverse scenario). The vertical axis shows billion cubic meters. The chart includes a shaded area starting in July 2023 to indicate that values before this date are based on data and those after this date are estimates. The first series is average natural gas inventories over the period 2015-2021. This gray dashed line declines from October to March every year and increases from April through September. The second series is a black line depicting our baseline scenario for natural gas inventories in the EU. This series comoves with the first series showing average inventories but is above it from May 2022 through June 2024. The third series is a blue dashed line showing our estimate of storage capacity over the period January 2022 to June 2024. The fourth series is green dashed line that starts in June 2023 and depicts estimates for natural gas inventories under the harsh winter scenario. These estimates comove with the baseline estimates but are always below them. In addition, the gap between the two series increases between December 2023 and April 2024 and then declines slightly through June 2024. The fifth series is a red dashed line that starts in June 2023 and depicts estimates for natural gas inventories under the adverse scenario. These estimates comove with those for the harsh winter scenario but are always below them.

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