Accessible Version
Fiscal implications of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Normalization Accessible Data
Figure 1. Projected Average Annual Remittances (Billions of Dollars)
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| Year | $100 bn Scenario | $500 bn Scenario | $1.0 tn Scenario | $2.3 tn Scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 74.776 | 74.711 | 74.573 | 73.809 |
| 2018 | 57.628 | 57.285 | 56.691 | 53.545 |
| 2019 | 42.476 | 41.849 | 40.848 | 35.810 |
| 2020 | 40.282 | 39.557 | 38.392 | 31.512 |
| 2021 | 46.303 | 45.648 | 43.849 | 36.444 |
| 2022 | 53.490 | 52.536 | 51.408 | 43.479 |
| 2023 | 59.577 | 59.052 | 58.973 | 51.407 |
| 2024 | 64.895 | 65.589 | 65.916 | 59.855 |
| 2025 | 69.730 | 70.806 | 71.410 | 66.981 |
| 2026 | 74.992 | 76.283 | 76.955 | 74.106 |
| 2027 | 79.907 | 81.319 | 82.370 | 81.245 |
| 2028 | 85.136 | 86.666 | 88.017 | 88.243 |
| 2029 | 90.573 | 92.264 | 93.862 | 95.104 |
| 2030 | 95.619 | 97.335 | 99.208 | 101.107 |
| 2031 | 100.814 | 102.684 | 104.536 | 106.746 |
| 2032 | 106.003 | 107.877 | 109.633 | 111.922 |
| 2033 | 111.723 | 113.443 | 115.314 | 117.798 |
| 2034 | 117.402 | 119.237 | 121.204 | 123.913 |
| 2035 | 123.211 | 125.156 | 127.300 | 130.420 |
Figure 2. Projected Standard Deviation of Annual Remittances (Billions of Dollars)
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| Year | $100 bn Scenario | $500 bn Scenario | $1.0 tn Scenario | $2.3 tn Scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 4.747 | 4.757 | 4.787 | 4.967 |
| 2018 | 16.298 | 16.313 | 16.331 | 16.635 |
| 2019 | 20.287 | 20.268 | 20.230 | 21.994 |
| 2020 | 18.299 | 18.272 | 18.238 | 23.877 |
| 2021 | 13.866 | 13.874 | 15.228 | 25.782 |
| 2022 | 8.424 | 9.036 | 12.733 | 27.391 |
| 2023 | 4.114 | 6.448 | 11.356 | 28.418 |
| 2024 | 4.345 | 6.707 | 11.840 | 28.923 |
| 2025 | 5.951 | 7.808 | 12.974 | 29.768 |
| 2026 | 7.994 | 9.135 | 13.737 | 29.983 |
| 2027 | 9.888 | 10.669 | 14.710 | 30.385 |
| 2028 | 11.749 | 12.187 | 15.677 | 30.763 |
| 2029 | 13.669 | 13.784 | 16.639 | 30.866 |
| 2030 | 15.494 | 15.368 | 17.736 | 31.076 |
| 2031 | 17.280 | 17.025 | 19.051 | 31.729 |
| 2032 | 19.154 | 18.630 | 20.264 | 32.197 |
| 2033 | 21.064 | 20.392 | 21.681 | 32.737 |
| 2034 | 23.102 | 22.474 | 23.543 | 33.794 |
| 2035 | 25.150 | 24.545 | 25.521 | 35.306 |
Figure 3. Projected Likelihood of Deferred Asset (Percent)
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| Quarter | $100 bn Scenario | $500 bn Scenario | $1.0 tn Scenario | $2.3 tn Scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017:Q2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 2017:Q3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 2017:Q4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 2018:Q1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 2018:Q2 | 0.020 | 0.020 | 0.020 | 0.040 |
| 2018:Q3 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.200 |
| 2018:Q4 | 0.320 | 0.320 | 0.320 | 0.860 |
| 2019:Q1 | 0.800 | 0.840 | 0.920 | 2.600 |
| 2019:Q2 | 1.740 | 1.820 | 2.080 | 5.960 |
| 2019:Q3 | 2.740 | 2.960 | 3.340 | 9.780 |
| 2019:Q4 | 3.600 | 3.860 | 4.260 | 14.040 |
| 2020:Q1 | 3.820 | 4.040 | 4.500 | 16.560 |
| 2020:Q2 | 3.880 | 4.120 | 4.600 | 18.200 |
| 2020:Q3 | 3.880 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 19.480 |
| 2020:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 20.720 |
| 2021:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 22.080 |
| 2021:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 23.060 |
| 2021:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 23.840 |
| 2021:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 24.760 |
| 2022:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 25.200 |
| 2022:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 25.860 |
| 2022:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 26.500 |
| 2022:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 26.940 |
| 2023:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 27.300 |
| 2023:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 27.720 |
| 2023:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 28.200 |
| 2023:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 28.320 |
| 2024:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 28.680 |
| 2024:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 28.860 |
| 2024:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 29.040 |
| 2024:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 29.260 |
| 2025:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 29.340 |
| 2025:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 29.560 |
| 2025:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 29.720 |
| 2025:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 29.920 |
| 2026:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 29.980 |
| 2026:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.120 |
| 2026:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.260 |
| 2026:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.320 |
| 2027:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.360 |
| 2027:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.440 |
| 2027:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.520 |
| 2027:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.540 |
| 2028:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.560 |
| 2028:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.620 |
| 2028:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.640 |
| 2028:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.660 |
| 2029:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.660 |
| 2029:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.680 |
| 2029:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.720 |
| 2029:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.720 |
| 2030:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.720 |
| 2030:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.720 |
| 2030:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.740 |
| 2030:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.740 |
| 2031:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.780 |
| 2031:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.780 |
| 2031:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.780 |
| 2031:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.800 |
| 2032:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2032:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2032:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2032:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2033:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2033:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2033:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2033:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2034:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2034:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2034:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2034:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2035:Q1 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2035:Q2 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2035:Q3 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
| 2035:Q4 | 3.900 | 4.140 | 4.620 | 30.820 |
Last Update:
January 05, 2018