Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Figure 1. Recent Trends in Production Worker Employment

This is a line chart titled “Recent Trends in Production Worker Employment.” The x axis ranges from January 2012 to August 2024 in months. The Y axis ranges from 68 to 112, with 100 denoting the February 2020 levels. The data are monthly. There are two variables charted on the plot. The first variable is the employment in the private sector, indexed at its February 2020 value; is labeled “Private”; is designated by a dashed red line; and ranges from 84 in April 2020 to 105 in August 2024. After gradually rising through February 2020, this variable sharply drops in March and April 2020 and recovers thereafter. The second variable measures employment in the temporary help services industry, indexed at its February 2020 value; is labeled “Temporary Help”; is designated by a black line; and ranges from around 69 in April 2020 to 111 in March 2022. After increasing over the early years in the sample, this variable remains roughly flat over 2018 and 2019, before sharply dropping in March and April of 2020; thereafter, it shows a remarkable recovery through March 2022 before reversing some of its gains.

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Figure 2. Measuring Temporary Help Services Employment in Manufacturing

This is a line chart titled “Measuring Temporary Help Services Employment in Manufacturing.” The x axis ranges from 2014 to 2024 in years. The Y axis ranges from 400 to 650 in thousands of employees. The data are yearly. There are two variables charted on the plot. The first variable is an annual proxy of temporary services employment across manufacturing industries from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics’ (OEWS) data; is labeled “OEWS, Production Occupations”; is designated by a dark blue line with diamond markers; and ranges from around 640 thousand in 2016 to 450 thousand in 2023. After peaking in 2016, this variable gradually declines, with the exception of a temporary recovery in 2022. The second variable measures employment of temporary workers in the U.S. Census Bureau’s quarterly survey of plant capacity; is labeled “QSPC, Manufacturing ex. NAICS 336”; is designated by a light blue line with square markers; and ranges from around 600 thousand in 2016 to 400 thousand in 2020. After peaking in 2016, this variable significantly drops in 2020 and recovers somewhat thereafter. The two variables align pretty well over the sample period.

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