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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, provides the nation with a safe, flexible, and stable monetary and financial system.

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Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Structural Analysis of Downside Risk, Accessible Data

Figure 1. Possible paths of GDP. US GDP

2019: Q1 = 100

Date	Data	COVID+RD	COVID Only	Gemus Pre-COVID	Q3 point
2019-01-01	100	100	100	100
2019-04-01	100.3032924	100.3032924	100.3032924	100.3032924
2019-07-01	100.8801153	100.8801153	100.8801153	100.8801153
2019-10-01	101.4176178	101.4176178	101.4176178	101.4176178
2020-01-01	100.0992331	100.0992331	100.0992331	101.9938384
2020-04-01	90.63662874	90.63662874	90.63662874	102.3764974
2020-07-01		88.39184855	94.95254096	102.6421309	97.82438613
2020-10-01		87.72221773	97.86263991	102.8509522
2021-01-01		87.79829954	99.66870245	103.0453567
2021-04-01		88.19859284	100.7826101	103.2515754
2021-07-01		88.71996986	101.4907584	103.4836078
2021-10-01		89.27314193	101.9812379	103.7472461
2022-01-01		89.82684376	102.370235	104.0433365
2022-04-01		90.3770159	102.7249797	104.370097
2022-07-01		90.93014167	103.0812323	104.7246078
2022-10-01		91.49484437	103.4556489	105.1036758

Note: GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Figure 1. Possible paths of GDP. Foreign GDP

2019: Q1 = 100

Date	Data	COVID+RD	COVID Only	Gemus Pre-COVID	Q3 point
2019-01-01	100	100	100	100
2019-04-01	100.2768107	100.2768107	100.2768107	100.2768107
2019-07-01	100.4565524	100.4565524	100.4565524	100.4565524
2019-10-01	100.6323739	100.6323739	100.6323739	100.6323739
2020-01-01	98.48892397	98.48892397	98.48892397	100.7818853
2020-04-01	84.6776823	84.6776823	84.6776823	101.013226
2020-07-01		81.482228	90.03406541	101.2957414	94.96306008
2020-10-01		81.12334321	93.61551067	101.6268331
2021-01-01		82.25248843	96.21783647	102.0105769
2021-04-01		84.03689845	98.07664412	102.4469028
2021-07-01		85.99189358	99.40754234	102.9309281
2021-10-01		87.86338651	100.3897318	103.454871
2022-01-01		89.54081791	101.1556748	104.0100355
2022-04-01		90.99639011	101.7961399	104.5881901
2022-07-01		92.24517207	102.3696664	105.1823041
2022-10-01		93.32056667	102.911925	105.7868066

Note: GDP is gross domestic product.

Source: Federal Reserve Board staff calculations.

Last Update: February 01, 2021