Accessible Version

Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasury Securities during the Pandemic, Accessible Data

Figure 1.

Cumlative Foreign Investor Net Purchases of U.S. Treasury Securities during Financial Stress Episodes (Left panel)

Billions of Dollars

Crisis FOI Foreign Private Investors
GFC 234.12 101.32
Eurozone Debt 8.71 138.47
Taper Tantrum -38.39 65.90
China Scare -158.78 46.38
COVID-19 -243.51 -143.13

Note: GFC months are September-November 2008, Eurozone Debt crisis months are August-October 2011, Taper Tantrum months are June-August 2013, China Scare months are July-September 2015, COVID-19 crisis months are March-May 2020.

Source: Staff estimates using Treasury International Capital data

Cumulative Foreign Investor Net Purchases of U.S. Treasury Securities during Five Financial Stress Episodes (Right panel)

Percent of Total Foreign Holdings

Crisis FOI Foreign Private Investors
GFC 8.60 3.72
Eurozone Debt 0.18 2.94
Taper Tantrum -0.68 1.16
China Scare -2.58 0.75
COVID-19 -3.37 -1.98

Note: GFC months are September-November 2008, Eurozone Debt crisis months are August-October 2011, Taper Tantrum months are June-August 2013, China Scare months are July-September 2015, COVID-19 crisis months are March-May 2020.

Source: Staff estimates using Treasury International Capital data

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Figure 2. Major EME Sellers of U.S. Treasury Securities, Spring 2020

Percent of Pre-Crisis Holdings

Country COVID-19 Net Purchases GFC Net Purchases
Saudi Arabia -33.94 26.78
Brazil -11.73 -9.75
China -4.37 38.11
India -13.52 13.01
Singapore -13.96 22.03
Hong Kong -5.64 3.56
Thailand -13.74 9.03
United Arab Emirates -31.08 36.46
Russia -46.37 -4.26
Egypt -23.01 5.48

Notes: COVID-19 months are March and April 2020; GFC months are September-November 2008.

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Figure 3.

Foreign Private Investor Net Purchases by Security Type (Left Panel)

Billions of Dollars

Crisis Treasury Bills Treasury Notes and Bonds
GFC 116.76 -15.44
COVID-19 160.30 -303.13

Notes: GFC months are September-November 2008; COVID-19 months are March-April 2020.

Source: Staff estimates using Treasury International Capital data

Foreign Private Investor Net Purchases by Security Type (Right Panel)

Percent of Pre-Crisis Holdings

Crisis Treasury Bills Treasury Notes and Bonds
GFC 70.50 -2.80
COVID-19 37.20 -12.60

Notes: GFC months are September-November 2008; COVID-19 months are March-April 2020.

Source: Staff estimates using Treasury International Capital data

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Figure 4. Absorption of Treasury Net Issuance by Sector

Percent (Left scale)

Trillions of Dollars (Right scale)

Date Foreign private (right scale) Foreign official (right scale) Other domestic (right scale) Foreign share (left scale)
2006 -0.06 0.21 -0.03 0.98
2007 0.07 0.10 0.04 0.85
2008 0.16 0.55 0.84 0.57
2009 -0.02 0.57 0.62 0.38
2010 0.30 0.45 0.65 0.47
2011 0.19 0.17 0.02 0.33
2012 0.15 0.44 0.54 0.53
2013 0.17 0.25 -0.32 0.67
2014 0.22 0.09 0.24 0.38
2015 0.15 -0.10 0.64 0.07
2016 0.18 -0.29 0.82 -0.15
2017 0.07 0.23 0.26 0.55
2018 0.15 -0.03 1.23 0.11
2019 0.22 0.00 0.78 0.21
Jan. - May 2020 -0.16 -0.46 2.49 -0.10
June 2020 - Sept. 2021 0.14 0.23 0.62 0.19

Source: Staff estimates using data from Treasury International Capital and the Department of the Treasury.

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Figure 5. Foreign Private Investor Purchases of U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds and Stock Market Values

y=0.70-0.15x
t-stat: -2.06, Adj-R2: 0.18

Date S&P 500 (Percent Change) Foreign Purchases (Percent of Holdings)
Jun-20 2% -1%
Jul-20 6% 0%
Aug-20 7% -1%
Sep-20 -4% 0%
Oct-20 -3% 1%
Nov-20 11% -2%
Dec-20 4% 0%
Jan-21 -1% 3%
Feb-21 3% 0%
Mar-21 4% 0%
Apr-21 5% 2%
May-21 1% 1%
Jun-21 2% 0%
Jul-21 2% 0%
Aug-21 3% 1%
Sep-21 -5% 1%

Notes: Figure plots monthly foreign private investor purchases of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds (as a percent of previous month’s holdings) against the percent change in the S&P 500 index from the previous month’s value.

Source: Staff estimates using Treasury International Capital data and Bloomberg

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Figure 6. Global FX Reserves and Foreign Official Investor Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities

Trillions of Dollars

Date Global FX Reserves Foreign Official U.S. Treasury Security Holdings
3/1/2007 5.59 1.79
6/1/2007 5.96 1.77
9/1/2007 6.30 1.84
12/1/2007 6.71 1.95
3/1/2008 7.25 2.09
6/1/2008 7.46 2.14
9/1/2008 7.50 2.37
12/1/2008 7.35 2.85
3/1/2009 7.16 3.06
6/1/2009 7.57 3.20
9/1/2009 7.88 3.37
12/1/2009 8.17 3.39
3/1/2010 8.29 3.47
6/1/2010 8.42 3.53
9/1/2010 8.99 3.83
12/1/2010 9.27 3.82
3/1/2011 9.71 3.81
6/1/2011 10.09 3.93
9/1/2011 10.17 4.01
12/1/2011 10.20 3.98
3/1/2012 10.44 4.08
6/1/2012 10.53 4.22
9/1/2012 10.79 4.34
12/1/2012 10.95 4.41
3/1/2013 11.10 4.50
6/1/2013 11.14 4.37
9/1/2013 11.45 4.39
12/1/2013 11.70 4.45
3/1/2014 11.86 4.44
6/1/2014 12.01 4.45
9/1/2014 11.78 4.47
12/1/2014 11.61 4.46
3/1/2015 11.45 4.50
6/1/2015 11.47 4.55
9/1/2015 11.19 4.48
12/1/2015 10.93 4.43
3/1/2016 10.94 4.37
6/1/2016 10.98 4.31
9/1/2016 11.00 4.19
12/1/2016 10.73 4.11
3/1/2017 10.91 4.20
6/1/2017 11.13 4.32
9/1/2017 11.31 4.40
12/1/2017 11.46 4.34
3/1/2018 11.62 4.37
6/1/2018 11.48 4.32
9/1/2018 11.41 4.33
12/1/2018 11.44 4.27
3/1/2019 11.61 4.40
6/1/2019 11.74 4.43
9/1/2019 11.66 4.44
12/1/2019 11.83 4.35
3/1/2020 11.70 4.40
6/1/2020 12.01 4.53
9/1/2020 12.25 4.57
12/1/2020 12.70 4.55
3/1/2021 12.57 4.56

Source: Staff estimates using Treasury International Capital data and IMF COFER

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Last Update: January 28, 2022