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Have pandemic-induced declines in home listings fueled house price growth? Accessible Data
Figure 1: Year-over-Year Listings Growth vs. House-Price Growth
| Week Ending: | Year-on-Year Percent Change in Total Listings (left scale) | Annualized Monthly House Price Growth (right scale) |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2019 | --- | 4.46 |
| January 5, 2020 | -14.78 | --- |
| January 12, 2020 | -4.32 | --- |
| January 19, 2020 | -2.68 | --- |
| January 26, 2020 | 4.03 | 5.26 |
| February 2, 2020 | 1.93 | --- |
| February 9, 2020 | 3.57 | --- |
| February 16, 2020 | 4.08 | --- |
| February 23, 2020 | 7.88 | 6.02 |
| March 1, 2020 | 1.11 | --- |
| March 8, 2020 | 9.34 | --- |
| March 15, 2020 | 6.28 | --- |
| March 22, 2020 | -4.84 | --- |
| March 29, 2020 | -29.44 | 5.73 |
| April 5, 2020 | -41.98 | --- |
| April 12, 2020 | -47.67 | --- |
| April 19, 2020 | -35.50 | --- |
| April 26, 2020 | -42.18 | --- |
| May 3, 2020 | -34.20 | --- |
| May 10, 2020 | -22.10 | --- |
| May 17, 2020 | -21.81 | --- |
| May 24, 2020 | -9.17 | --- |
| May 31, 2020 | -17.05 | 5.59 |
| June 7, 2020 | -9.65 | --- |
| June 14, 2020 | -6.66 | --- |
| June 21, 2020 | -4.43 | --- |
| June 28, 2020 | -2.28 | 7.16 |
| July 5, 2020 | 15.92 | --- |
| July 12, 2020 | -2.15 | --- |
| July 19, 2020 | 3.54 | --- |
| July 26, 2020 | 8.75 | 9.18 |
| August 2, 2020 | 5.04 | --- |
| August 9, 2020 | 8.85 | --- |
| August 16, 2020 | 13.98 | --- |
| August 23, 2020 | 14.29 | --- |
| August 30, 2020 | 18.97 | 10.67 |
| September 6, 2020 | 16.56 | --- |
| September 13, 2020 | 1.98 | --- |
| September 20, 2020 | 12.45 | --- |
| September 27, 2020 | 14.22 | 11.67 |
| October 4, 2020 | 12.30 | --- |
| October 11, 2020 | 16.86 | --- |
| October 18, 2020 | 14.57 | --- |
| October 25, 2020 | 17.92 | 12.55 |
| November 1, 2020 | 11.70 | --- |
| November 8, 2020 | 9.11 | --- |
| November 15, 2020 | 14.81 | --- |
| November 22, 2020 | 25.11 | --- |
| November 29, 2020 | 17.35 | 12.92 |
| December 6, 2020 | 16.17 | --- |
| December 13, 2020 | 22.06 | --- |
| December 20, 2020 | 26.82 | --- |
| December 27, 2020 | 26.63 | 12.93 |
Note: Figure shows year-over-year percent change in total listings and annualized monthly house price growth over time. Listings data from Redfin.com, house price data from Zillow, Inc.
Figure 2: Year-over-Year Percent Change in New Listings by Quartile of Listings Shock
Percent Change in Listings from 2019
| Week Ending | First Quartile | Second Quartile | Third Quartile | Fourth Quartile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 5, 2020 | -19.47 | -20.40 | -13.48 | -8.86 |
| January 12, 2020 | -9.20 | -6.10 | -1.02 | -2.57 |
| January 19, 2020 | -4.41 | -3.86 | -1.58 | -1.64 |
| January 26, 2020 | 0.99 | -3.09 | 1.06 | 13.56 |
| February 2, 2020 | 5.04 | 2.95 | -0.08 | 1.00 |
| February 9, 2020 | 1.64 | 1.33 | 6.62 | 4.09 |
| February 16, 2020 | 6.31 | 4.71 | 1.71 | 4.19 |
| February 23, 2020 | 8.41 | 6.63 | 7.79 | 8.59 |
| March 1, 2020 | 0.81 | 1.19 | -1.03 | 3.16 |
| March 8, 2020 | 11.00 | 6.97 | 9.43 | 9.97 |
| March 15, 2020 | 4.33 | 1.80 | 8.61 | 9.27 |
| March 22, 2020 | -18.47 | -11.62 | 0.88 | 5.89 |
| March 29, 2020 | -54.19 | -36.43 | -22.03 | -11.89 |
| April 5, 2020 | -65.03 | -48.29 | -36.69 | -22.99 |
| April 12, 2020 | -67.32 | -53.71 | -42.45 | -31.71 |
| April 19, 2020 | -55.86 | -40.04 | -29.64 | -22.30 |
| April 26, 2020 | -61.61 | -47.32 | -38.06 | -25.88 |
| May 3, 2020 | -55.24 | -40.18 | -29.60 | -15.68 |
| May 10, 2020 | -38.73 | -27.63 | -17.38 | -8.30 |
| May 17, 2020 | -35.46 | -27.10 | -18.97 | -8.24 |
| May 24, 2020 | -15.91 | -12.22 | -8.49 | -2.14 |
| May 31, 2020 | -22.53 | -21.64 | -17.29 | -8.27 |
| June 7, 2020 | -18.89 | -13.17 | -8.05 | 0.13 |
| June 14, 2020 | -9.13 | -9.33 | -7.53 | -1.61 |
| June 21, 2020 | -4.70 | -8.03 | -6.69 | 1.02 |
| June 28, 2020 | -0.89 | -3.75 | -3.81 | -0.77 |
| July 5, 2020 | 21.69 | 14.13 | 15.83 | 13.30 |
| July 12, 2020 | -0.01 | -3.00 | -3.31 | -2.00 |
| July 19, 2020 | 7.34 | -0.58 | 1.94 | 5.60 |
| July 26, 2020 | 15.76 | 6.77 | 6.13 | 7.63 |
| August 2, 2020 | 8.75 | 3.42 | 5.75 | 2.98 |
| August 9, 2020 | 8.26 | 8.10 | 8.99 | 9.78 |
| August 16, 2020 | 17.39 | 12.36 | 13.70 | 12.98 |
| August 23, 2020 | 19.04 | 13.67 | 12.30 | 13.09 |
| August 30, 2020 | 23.96 | 21.45 | 19.98 | 12.69 |
| September 6, 2020 | 11.61 | 15.77 | 14.40 | 23.38 |
| September 13, 2020 | 3.71 | 3.46 | 1.00 | 0.29 |
| September 20, 2020 | 14.35 | 13.14 | 13.28 | 9.70 |
| September 27, 2020 | 16.77 | 18.28 | 13.83 | 9.55 |
| October 4, 2020 | 16.16 | 17.68 | 11.94 | 5.91 |
| October 11, 2020 | 22.04 | 19.94 | 15.07 | 12.43 |
| October 18, 2020 | 20.16 | 19.35 | 11.99 | 9.40 |
| October 25, 2020 | 22.79 | 20.65 | 16.27 | 13.90 |
| November 1, 2020 | 14.71 | 14.55 | 13.11 | 6.41 |
| November 8, 2020 | 10.29 | 9.67 | 9.82 | 7.34 |
| November 15, 2020 | 15.57 | 21.18 | 14.77 | 9.77 |
| November 22, 2020 | 29.50 | 39.76 | 23.80 | 13.52 |
| November 29, 2020 | 23.26 | 23.12 | 16.81 | 10.46 |
| December 6, 2020 | 22.34 | 20.73 | 13.96 | 11.24 |
| December 13, 2020 | 26.48 | 26.45 | 20.20 | 18.05 |
| December 20, 2020 | 25.99 | 33.35 | 28.32 | 21.99 |
| December 27, 2020 | 32.34 | 33.99 | 25.06 | 20.17 |
Note: Figure shows the year-over-year percent change in total listings over 2020 by quartile of the listings shock, where quartiles are weighted by the number of households per county. Listings shock defined as the year-over-year percent change in total new listings averaged over April-June 2020. Listings data from Redfin.com, population data from the Census Bureau.
Figure 3: Listings Shock and House Price Acceleration
| Bin | Mean change in year-on-year April-June total new listings | House price acceleration between 2020 H2 and 2019 H2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -47.46 | 4.43 |
| 2 | -37.96 | 8.73 |
| 3 | -34.43 | 7.58 |
| 4 | -31.64 | 9.57 |
| 5 | -30.39 | 9.68 |
| 6 | -29.31 | 9.15 |
| 7 | -28.91 | 9.44 |
| 8 | -28.38 | 8.60 |
| 9 | -27.03 | 7.49 |
| 10 | -25.03 | 5.81 |
| 11 | -23.32 | 8.50 |
| 12 | -22.04 | 7.71 |
| 13 | -20.45 | 6.70 |
| 14 | -19.33 | 7.20 |
| 15 | -17.87 | 7.71 |
| 16 | -16.56 | 6.58 |
| 17 | -15.27 | 6.52 |
| 18 | -14.05 | 7.10 |
| 19 | -11.30 | 5.32 |
| 20 | 0.25 | 2.93 |
Note: Figure shows the household-weighted correlation between house price acceleration and the listings shock. County level listings and price data were collapsed into 20 household-weighted bins where each county was assigned to a bin based on the size of its listings shock. House price acceleration defined as the annualized percent change in house prices from June to December 2020 minus the same for 2019. Listings shock defined as the year-over-year percent change in total listings averaged over April-June 2020. Listings data from Redfin.com, population data from the Census Bureau, house price data from Zillow, Inc.
Figure 4: Time-Varying Relationship between Listings Shocks and House Price Acceleration
Percentage Points
| Quarter | Estimated effect of listings shock on price acceleration relative to 2020 Q2 | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019Q4 | 0.04 | -0.03 | 0.12 |
| 2020Q1 | -0.07 | -0.13 | 0.00 |
| 2020Q2 | --- | --- | --- |
| 2020Q3 | -0.07 | -0.12 | -0.01 |
| 2020Q4 | -0.14 | -0.21 | -0.07 |
| 2021Q1 | 0.00 | -0.10 | 0.10 |
Note: Figure shows estimates from a regression of year-over-year acceleration in quarterly price growth (annualized) on the listings shock interacted with dummies for each quarter of the sample, omitting 2020q2. The regression is estimated at the county-by-quarter level, weighting by number of households, from 2019q4 through 2021q1. Figure plots the coefficients of these interactions and their confidence intervals by quarter. Listings data from Redfin.com, population data from the Census Bureau, and house price data from Zillow, Inc.