High-frequency Spending Responses to the Earned Income Tax Credit Accessible Data

Figure 1: Weekly Issuance of Federal Tax Refunds with and without EITC

Refunds (billion dollars)

With EITC / Without EITC

Year Week Total Refund Amount Type
2014 1 44365331 EITC
2014 2 19791926 EITC
2014 5 45627842 EITC
2014 6 8.08E+09 EITC
2014 7 3.92E+10 EITC
2014 8 1.6E+10 EITC
2014 9 1.38E+10 EITC
2014 10 8.32E+09 EITC
2014 11 6.04E+09 EITC
2014 12 4.56E+09 EITC
2014 13 3.82E+09 EITC
2014 14 3.22E+09 EITC
2014 15 2.87E+09 EITC
2014 16 2.94E+09 EITC
2014 17 3.38E+09 EITC
2014 18 1.75E+09 EITC
2014 19 9.22E+08 EITC
2014 20 6.42E+08 EITC
2014 21 5E+08 EITC
2014 22 2.73E+08 EITC
2014 23 4.93E+08 EITC
2014 24 3.41E+08 EITC
2014 25 3.12E+08 EITC
2014 26 2.64E+08 EITC
2014 27 1.58E+08 EITC
2014 28 2.36E+08 EITC
2014 29 2.39E+08 EITC
2014 30 1.9E+08 EITC
2014 31 1.68E+08 EITC
2014 32 1.58E+08 EITC
2014 33 1.51E+08 EITC
2014 34 1.36E+08 EITC
2014 35 1.33E+08 EITC
2014 36 76403337 EITC
2014 37 1.49E+08 EITC
2014 38 1.15E+08 EITC
2014 39 1.27E+08 EITC
2014 40 1.12E+08 EITC
2014 41 1.14E+08 EITC
2014 42 82058741 EITC
2014 43 3.41E+08 EITC
2014 44 2.53E+08 EITC
2014 45 1.62E+08 EITC
2014 46 63753852 EITC
2014 47 1.65E+08 EITC
2014 48 36091708 EITC
2014 49 89053560 EITC
2014 50 69848136 EITC
2014 51 56463958 EITC
2014 52 17303521 EITC
2015 1 35118362 EITC
2015 2 20836757 EITC
2015 5 8.38E+09 EITC
2015 6 1.84E+10 EITC
2015 7 2.26E+10 EITC
2015 8 1.35E+10 EITC
2015 9 1.3E+10 EITC
2015 10 7.76E+09 EITC
2015 11 5.73E+09 EITC
2015 12 4.68E+09 EITC
2015 13 3.86E+09 EITC
2015 14 3.3E+09 EITC
2015 15 2.93E+09 EITC
2015 16 2.79E+09 EITC
2015 17 3.8E+09 EITC
2015 18 1.98E+09 EITC
2015 19 1.04E+09 EITC
2015 20 7.13E+08 EITC
2015 21 5.98E+08 EITC
2015 22 3.44E+08 EITC
2015 23 5.2E+08 EITC
2015 24 3.61E+08 EITC
2015 25 3.09E+08 EITC
2015 26 2.83E+08 EITC
2015 27 1.74E+08 EITC
2015 28 2.46E+08 EITC
2015 29 2.71E+08 EITC
2015 30 1.89E+08 EITC
2015 31 1.72E+08 EITC
2015 32 1.61E+08 EITC
2015 33 1.55E+08 EITC
2015 34 1.43E+08 EITC
2015 35 1.48E+08 EITC
2015 36 1.43E+08 EITC
2015 37 79125008 EITC
2015 38 1.5E+08 EITC
2015 39 1.2E+08 EITC
2015 40 1.11E+08 EITC
2015 41 1.16E+08 EITC
2015 42 82551480 EITC
2015 43 3.23E+08 EITC
2015 44 2.48E+08 EITC
2015 45 1.74E+08 EITC
2015 46 75705487 EITC
2015 47 1.77E+08 EITC
2015 48 39015099 EITC
2015 49 95174652 EITC
2015 50 65591042 EITC
2015 51 56719268 EITC
2015 52 23427944 EITC
2016 1 41998930 EITC
2016 2 32643092 EITC
2016 5 4.46E+08 EITC
2016 6 6.85E+09 EITC
2016 7 3.57E+10 EITC
2016 8 1.58E+10 EITC
2016 9 1.36E+10 EITC
2016 10 8.69E+09 EITC
2016 11 6.32E+09 EITC
2016 12 4.96E+09 EITC
2016 13 3.99E+09 EITC
2016 14 3.31E+09 EITC
2016 15 2.89E+09 EITC
2016 16 2.8E+09 EITC
2016 17 3.16E+09 EITC
2016 18 3.33E+09 EITC
2016 19 1.61E+09 EITC
2016 20 8.8E+08 EITC
2016 21 7.04E+08 EITC
2016 22 5.86E+08 EITC
2016 23 3.57E+08 EITC
2016 24 5.27E+08 EITC
2016 25 3.96E+08 EITC
2016 26 3.71E+08 EITC
2016 27 2.98E+08 EITC
2016 28 1.71E+08 EITC
2016 29 2.52E+08 EITC
2016 30 2.22E+08 EITC
2016 31 1.89E+08 EITC
2016 32 1.61E+08 EITC
2016 33 1.51E+08 EITC
2016 34 1.41E+08 EITC
2016 35 1.46E+08 EITC
2016 36 1.25E+08 EITC
2016 37 68039680 EITC
2016 38 1.43E+08 EITC
2016 39 1.14E+08 EITC
2016 40 1.17E+08 EITC
2016 41 1.1E+08 EITC
2016 42 70535743 EITC
2016 43 1.82E+08 EITC
2016 44 3.46E+08 EITC
2016 45 2.42E+08 EITC
2016 46 82764459 EITC
2016 47 1.34E+08 EITC
2016 48 1.02E+08 EITC
2016 49 85201312 EITC
2016 50 74668913 EITC
2016 51 60486324 EITC
2016 52 50599874 EITC
2016 53 22479584 EITC
2017 1 33635158 EITC
2017 4 0 EITC
2017 5 82299933 EITC
2017 6 45348973 EITC
2017 7 38841029 EITC
2017 8 5.86E+10 EITC
2017 9 1.16E+10 EITC
2017 10 8.68E+09 EITC
2017 11 6.27E+09 EITC
2017 12 4.71E+09 EITC
2017 13 3.93E+09 EITC
2017 14 3.48E+09 EITC
2017 15 3.19E+09 EITC
2017 16 3.34E+09 EITC
2017 17 3.65E+09 EITC
2017 18 1.82E+09 EITC
2017 19 9.66E+08 EITC
2017 20 7.02E+08 EITC
2017 21 5.55E+08 EITC
2017 22 3.42E+08 EITC
2017 23 5.5E+08 EITC
2017 24 3.51E+08 EITC
2017 25 3.41E+08 EITC
2017 26 2.93E+08 EITC
2017 27 1.94E+08 EITC
2017 28 3.22E+08 EITC
2017 29 1.92E+08 EITC
2017 30 2.11E+08 EITC
2017 31 2.01E+08 EITC
2017 32 1.83E+08 EITC
2017 33 1.71E+08 EITC
2017 34 1.77E+08 EITC
2017 35 1.42E+08 EITC
2017 36 86141620 EITC
2017 37 1.45E+08 EITC
2017 38 1.18E+08 EITC
2017 39 1.23E+08 EITC
2017 40 1.15E+08 EITC
2017 41 79284145 EITC
2017 42 2E+08 EITC
2017 43 3.66E+08 EITC
2017 44 2.02E+08 EITC
2017 45 82701421 EITC
2017 46 1.2E+08 EITC
2017 47 97881169 EITC
2017 48 1.08E+08 EITC
2017 49 63367974 EITC
2017 50 53086093 EITC
2017 51 42561748 EITC
2017 52 22910368 EITC
2014 1 2.29E+08 Total - EITC
2014 2 1.36E+08 Total - EITC
2014 5 1.55E+08 Total - EITC
2014 6 4.1E+09 Total - EITC
2014 7 2.02E+10 Total - EITC
2014 8 1.22E+10 Total - EITC
2014 9 1.64E+10 Total - EITC
2014 10 1.27E+10 Total - EITC
2014 11 1.13E+10 Total - EITC
2014 12 1.01E+10 Total - EITC
2014 13 1.02E+10 Total - EITC
2014 14 1.01E+10 Total - EITC
2014 15 1.05E+10 Total - EITC
2014 16 1.22E+10 Total - EITC
2014 17 1.5E+10 Total - EITC
2014 18 8.29E+09 Total - EITC
2014 19 3.5E+09 Total - EITC
2014 20 2.38E+09 Total - EITC
2014 21 1.72E+09 Total - EITC
2014 22 8.17E+08 Total - EITC
2014 23 1.4E+09 Total - EITC
2014 24 9.11E+08 Total - EITC
2014 25 8.09E+08 Total - EITC
2014 26 7.51E+08 Total - EITC
2014 27 4.52E+08 Total - EITC
2014 28 6.86E+08 Total - EITC
2014 29 7.75E+08 Total - EITC
2014 30 5.32E+08 Total - EITC
2014 31 4.84E+08 Total - EITC
2014 32 4.74E+08 Total - EITC
2014 33 4.84E+08 Total - EITC
2014 34 4.75E+08 Total - EITC
2014 35 4.83E+08 Total - EITC
2014 36 2.87E+08 Total - EITC
2014 37 6.74E+08 Total - EITC
2014 38 4.79E+08 Total - EITC
2014 39 5.72E+08 Total - EITC
2014 40 5.95E+08 Total - EITC
2014 41 6.25E+08 Total - EITC
2014 42 5.42E+08 Total - EITC
2014 43 2.17E+09 Total - EITC
2014 44 3.01E+09 Total - EITC
2014 45 1.56E+09 Total - EITC
2014 46 9.49E+08 Total - EITC
2014 47 2.49E+09 Total - EITC
2014 48 2.47E+08 Total - EITC
2014 49 6.58E+08 Total - EITC
2014 50 7.14E+08 Total - EITC
2014 51 4.93E+08 Total - EITC
2014 52 63424933 Total - EITC
2015 1 1.83E+08 Total - EITC
2015 2 1.1E+08 Total - EITC
2015 5 2.36E+09 Total - EITC
2015 6 8.11E+09 Total - EITC
2015 7 1.43E+10 Total - EITC
2015 8 1.17E+10 Total - EITC
2015 9 1.65E+10 Total - EITC
2015 10 1.24E+10 Total - EITC
2015 11 1.1E+10 Total - EITC
2015 12 1.03E+10 Total - EITC
2015 13 1.01E+10 Total - EITC
2015 14 9.91E+09 Total - EITC
2015 15 1.01E+10 Total - EITC
2015 16 1.12E+10 Total - EITC
2015 17 1.57E+10 Total - EITC
2015 18 8.55E+09 Total - EITC
2015 19 3.73E+09 Total - EITC
2015 20 2.53E+09 Total - EITC
2015 21 1.92E+09 Total - EITC
2015 22 1.03E+09 Total - EITC
2015 23 1.52E+09 Total - EITC
2015 24 9.33E+08 Total - EITC
2015 25 8.16E+08 Total - EITC
2015 26 7.17E+08 Total - EITC
2015 27 4.54E+08 Total - EITC
2015 28 6.56E+08 Total - EITC
2015 29 7.69E+08 Total - EITC
2015 30 5.29E+08 Total - EITC
2015 31 4.95E+08 Total - EITC
2015 32 4.96E+08 Total - EITC
2015 33 5.05E+08 Total - EITC
2015 34 5.16E+08 Total - EITC
2015 35 5.02E+08 Total - EITC
2015 36 5.16E+08 Total - EITC
2015 37 2.9E+08 Total - EITC
2015 38 6.32E+08 Total - EITC
2015 39 5.07E+08 Total - EITC
2015 40 5.06E+08 Total - EITC
2015 41 5.88E+08 Total - EITC
2015 42 5.23E+08 Total - EITC
2015 43 2E+09 Total - EITC
2015 44 2.24E+09 Total - EITC
2015 45 2.09E+09 Total - EITC
2015 46 1.21E+09 Total - EITC
2015 47 2.65E+09 Total - EITC
2015 48 3.58E+08 Total - EITC
2015 49 9.17E+08 Total - EITC
2015 50 8.69E+08 Total - EITC
2015 51 5.21E+08 Total - EITC
2015 52 1.12E+08 Total - EITC
2016 1 2.72E+08 Total - EITC
2016 2 2.69E+08 Total - EITC
2016 5 5.62E+08 Total - EITC
2016 6 5.41E+09 Total - EITC
2016 7 1.71E+10 Total - EITC
2016 8 1.23E+10 Total - EITC
2016 9 1.67E+10 Total - EITC
2016 10 1.3E+10 Total - EITC
2016 11 1.16E+10 Total - EITC
2016 12 1.07E+10 Total - EITC
2016 13 1E+10 Total - EITC
2016 14 9.65E+09 Total - EITC
2016 15 9.84E+09 Total - EITC
2016 16 1.08E+10 Total - EITC
2016 17 1.37E+10 Total - EITC
2016 18 1.35E+10 Total - EITC
2016 19 6.45E+09 Total - EITC
2016 20 3.53E+09 Total - EITC
2016 21 2.52E+09 Total - EITC
2016 22 1.75E+09 Total - EITC
2016 23 9.63E+08 Total - EITC
2016 24 1.56E+09 Total - EITC
2016 25 1.06E+09 Total - EITC
2016 26 1.04E+09 Total - EITC
2016 27 8.85E+08 Total - EITC
2016 28 4.11E+08 Total - EITC
2016 29 9.58E+08 Total - EITC
2016 30 7.76E+08 Total - EITC
2016 31 6.94E+08 Total - EITC
2016 32 6.05E+08 Total - EITC
2016 33 6E+08 Total - EITC
2016 34 5.75E+08 Total - EITC
2016 35 6E+08 Total - EITC
2016 36 6.05E+08 Total - EITC
2016 37 3.29E+08 Total - EITC
2016 38 7.21E+08 Total - EITC
2016 39 5.57E+08 Total - EITC
2016 40 6.57E+08 Total - EITC
2016 41 6.66E+08 Total - EITC
2016 42 5.27E+08 Total - EITC
2016 43 1.56E+09 Total - EITC
2016 44 2.6E+09 Total - EITC
2016 45 3.89E+09 Total - EITC
2016 46 1.27E+09 Total - EITC
2016 47 1.86E+09 Total - EITC
2016 48 1.5E+09 Total - EITC
2016 49 9.65E+08 Total - EITC
2016 50 7.94E+08 Total - EITC
2016 51 4.94E+08 Total - EITC
2016 52 3.3E+08 Total - EITC
2016 53 86030491 Total - EITC
2017 1 2.08E+08 Total - EITC
2017 4 4.34E+08 Total - EITC
2017 5 5.14E+09 Total - EITC
2017 6 1.12E+10 Total - EITC
2017 7 1.52E+10 Total - EITC
2017 8 1.18E+10 Total - EITC
2017 9 1.62E+10 Total - EITC
2017 10 1.32E+10 Total - EITC
2017 11 1.18E+10 Total - EITC
2017 12 1.12E+10 Total - EITC
2017 13 1.1E+10 Total - EITC
2017 14 1.21E+10 Total - EITC
2017 15 1.23E+10 Total - EITC
2017 16 1.48E+10 Total - EITC
2017 17 1.58E+10 Total - EITC
2017 18 6.58E+09 Total - EITC
2017 19 3.79E+09 Total - EITC
2017 20 2.56E+09 Total - EITC
2017 21 1.73E+09 Total - EITC
2017 22 9.07E+08 Total - EITC
2017 23 1.69E+09 Total - EITC
2017 24 9.76E+08 Total - EITC
2017 25 1.11E+09 Total - EITC
2017 26 8.84E+08 Total - EITC
2017 27 5.36E+08 Total - EITC
2017 28 9.8E+08 Total - EITC
2017 29 6.59E+08 Total - EITC
2017 30 7.03E+08 Total - EITC
2017 31 6.37E+08 Total - EITC
2017 32 5.99E+08 Total - EITC
2017 33 5.75E+08 Total - EITC
2017 34 5.91E+08 Total - EITC
2017 35 5.59E+08 Total - EITC
2017 36 3.31E+08 Total - EITC
2017 37 7.16E+08 Total - EITC
2017 38 6.49E+08 Total - EITC
2017 39 6.96E+08 Total - EITC
2017 40 7.02E+08 Total - EITC
2017 41 5.92E+08 Total - EITC
2017 42 1.83E+09 Total - EITC
2017 43 3.24E+09 Total - EITC
2017 44 2.89E+09 Total - EITC
2017 45 1.39E+09 Total - EITC
2017 46 1.87E+09 Total - EITC
2017 47 1.58E+09 Total - EITC
2017 48 1.52E+09 Total - EITC
2017 49 6.05E+08 Total - EITC
2017 50 5.08E+08 Total - EITC
2017 51 3.33E+08 Total - EITC
2017 52 94044898 Total - EITC

Note: Peak issuance occurred in the week of Friday, February 23rd in 2017, two weeks later than the peak in earlier years.

Source: Internal Revenue Service: Research, Applied Analytics, & Statistics.

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Figure 2: Fraction of Federal Tax Returns with the EITC by State in 2016

State Fraction of EITC Returns
AK 0.12
AL 0.26
AR 0.25
AZ 0.21
CA 0.19
CO 0.14
CT 0.13
DC 0.16
DE 0.17
FL 0.23
GA 0.26
HI 0.16
IA 0.15
ID 0.19
IL 0.17
IN 0.18
KS 0.16
KY 0.22
LA 0.27
MA 0.12
MD 0.15
ME 0.16
MI 0.18
MN 0.13
MO 0.19
MS 0.32
MT 0.16
NC 0.22
ND 0.11
NE 0.15
NH 0.11
NJ 0.14
NM 0.24
NV 0.20
NY 0.19
OH 0.18
OK 0.22
OR 0.16
PA 0.16
RI 0.17
SC 0.24
SD 0.15
TN 0.23
TX 0.23
UT 0.16
VA 0.16
VT 0.14
WA 0.14
WI 0.14
WV 0.20
WY 0.14

Source: Internal Revenue Service.

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Figure 3: Daily Spending at Retail Stores and Restaurants, 2014 to 2017

Index, Seven-Day Trailing Average

Date Value Year Day IRS Refunds
1/10/2014 8.33E+09 2014 1 0
1/11/2014 7.6E+09 2014 2 0
1/12/2014 5.62E+09 2014 3 0
1/13/2014 7.1E+09 2014 4 0
1/14/2014 7.33E+09 2014 5 0
1/15/2014 7.39E+09 2014 6 0
1/16/2014 7.85E+09 2014 7 0
1/17/2014 8.62E+09 2014 8 0
1/18/2014 7.9E+09 2014 9 0
1/19/2014 5.79E+09 2014 10 0
1/20/2014 7.32E+09 2014 11 0
1/21/2014 6.66E+09 2014 12 0
1/22/2014 6.78E+09 2014 13 0
1/23/2014 7.7E+09 2014 14 0
1/24/2014 8.28E+09 2014 15 0
1/25/2014 7.71E+09 2014 16 0
1/26/2014 5.71E+09 2014 17 0
1/27/2014 7.09E+09 2014 18 0
1/28/2014 6.81E+09 2014 19 0
1/29/2014 7.12E+09 2014 20 0
1/30/2014 7.88E+09 2014 21 0
1/31/2014 9.16E+09 2014 22 0
2/1/2014 8.64E+09 2014 23 0
2/2/2014 5.81E+09 2014 24 0
2/3/2014 7.4E+09 2014 25 0
2/4/2014 7.34E+09 2014 26 0
2/5/2014 7.06E+09 2014 27 0
2/6/2014 8.06E+09 2014 28 0
2/7/2014 9.34E+09 2014 29 0
2/8/2014 8.56E+09 2014 30 0
2/9/2014 6.12E+09 2014 31 0
2/10/2014 8.2E+09 2014 32 0
2/11/2014 8.31E+09 2014 33 0
2/12/2014 8.47E+09 2014 34 0
2/13/2014 8.3E+09 2014 35 1
2/14/2014 1.04E+10 2014 36 0
2/15/2014 8.83E+09 2014 37 0
2/16/2014 6.54E+09 2014 38 0
2/17/2014 8.1E+09 2014 39 0
2/18/2014 7.65E+09 2014 40 0
2/19/2014 8.02E+09 2014 41 0
2/20/2014 8.49E+09 2014 42 0
2/21/2014 9.36E+09 2014 43 0
2/22/2014 9E+09 2014 44 0
2/23/2014 6.43E+09 2014 45 0
2/24/2014 7.81E+09 2014 46 0
2/25/2014 8.02E+09 2014 47 0
2/26/2014 8.11E+09 2014 48 0
2/27/2014 8.83E+09 2014 49 0
2/28/2014 1E+10 2014 50 0
3/1/2014 9.23E+09 2014 51 0
3/2/2014 6.2E+09 2014 52 0
3/3/2014 7.8E+09 2014 53 0
3/4/2014 8.18E+09 2014 54 0
3/5/2014 8.26E+09 2014 55 0
3/6/2014 8.47E+09 2014 56 0
3/7/2014 9.56E+09 2014 57 0
3/8/2014 8.88E+09 2014 58 0
3/9/2014 6.48E+09 2014 59 0
3/10/2014 8.28E+09 2014 60 0
3/11/2014 8.07E+09 2014 61 0
3/12/2014 7.85E+09 2014 62 0
3/13/2014 8.63E+09 2014 63 0
3/14/2014 9.9E+09 2014 64 0
3/15/2014 9.13E+09 2014 65 0
3/16/2014 6.37E+09 2014 66 0
3/17/2014 7.73E+09 2014 67 0
3/18/2014 7.98E+09 2014 68 0
3/19/2014 7.97E+09 2014 69 0
3/20/2014 8.62E+09 2014 70 0
1/9/2015 9.11E+09 2015 1 0
1/10/2015 8.48E+09 2015 2 0
1/11/2015 5.63E+09 2015 3 0
1/12/2015 7.5E+09 2015 4 0
1/13/2015 7.83E+09 2015 5 0
1/14/2015 7.93E+09 2015 6 0
1/15/2015 8.46E+09 2015 7 0
1/16/2015 9.47E+09 2015 8 0
1/17/2015 8.79E+09 2015 9 0
1/18/2015 5.62E+09 2015 10 0
1/19/2015 7.98E+09 2015 11 0
1/20/2015 7.52E+09 2015 12 0
1/21/2015 7.72E+09 2015 13 0
1/22/2015 8.1E+09 2015 14 0
1/23/2015 9.28E+09 2015 15 0
1/24/2015 8.3E+09 2015 16 0
1/25/2015 6.07E+09 2015 17 0
1/26/2015 7.63E+09 2015 18 0
1/27/2015 6.8E+09 2015 19 0
1/28/2015 7.71E+09 2015 20 0
1/29/2015 8.22E+09 2015 21 0
1/30/2015 1E+10 2015 22 0
1/31/2015 9.33E+09 2015 23 0
2/1/2015 5.88E+09 2015 24 0
2/2/2015 7.2E+09 2015 25 0
2/3/2015 8.37E+09 2015 26 0
2/4/2015 8.34E+09 2015 27 0
2/5/2015 8.69E+09 2015 28 0
2/6/2015 1.01E+10 2015 29 0
2/7/2015 9.77E+09 2015 30 0
2/8/2015 6.46E+09 2015 31 0
2/9/2015 8.07E+09 2015 32 0
2/10/2015 8.67E+09 2015 33 0
2/11/2015 9.1E+09 2015 34 0
2/12/2015 9.66E+09 2015 35 1
2/13/2015 1.14E+10 2015 36 0
2/14/2015 1.06E+10 2015 37 0
2/15/2015 6.42E+09 2015 38 0
2/16/2015 8.48E+09 2015 39 0
2/17/2015 8.07E+09 2015 40 0
2/18/2015 8.44E+09 2015 41 0
2/19/2015 8.79E+09 2015 42 0
2/20/2015 1.03E+10 2015 43 0
2/21/2015 9.09E+09 2015 44 0
2/22/2015 6.24E+09 2015 45 0
2/23/2015 8.12E+09 2015 46 0
2/24/2015 8.22E+09 2015 47 0
2/25/2015 8.61E+09 2015 48 0
2/26/2015 8.87E+09 2015 49 0
2/27/2015 1.08E+10 2015 50 0
2/28/2015 9.84E+09 2015 51 0
3/1/2015 6.34E+09 2015 52 0
3/2/2015 8.73E+09 2015 53 0
3/3/2015 8.84E+09 2015 54 0
3/4/2015 8.74E+09 2015 55 0
3/5/2015 7.87E+09 2015 56 0
3/6/2015 1.01E+10 2015 57 0
3/7/2015 9.84E+09 2015 58 0
3/8/2015 6.55E+09 2015 59 0
3/9/2015 8.46E+09 2015 60 0
3/10/2015 8.5E+09 2015 61 0
3/11/2015 8.84E+09 2015 62 0
3/12/2015 9.27E+09 2015 63 0
3/13/2015 1.05E+10 2015 64 0
3/14/2015 9.81E+09 2015 65 0
3/15/2015 6.85E+09 2015 66 0
3/16/2015 8.85E+09 2015 67 0
3/17/2015 8.6E+09 2015 68 0
3/18/2015 8.92E+09 2015 69 0
3/19/2015 9.22E+09 2015 70 0
1/8/2016 9.73E+09 2016 1 0
1/9/2016 8.9E+09 2016 2 0
1/10/2016 5.69E+09 2016 3 0
1/11/2016 7.97E+09 2016 4 0
1/12/2016 7.98E+09 2016 5 0
1/13/2016 8.32E+09 2016 6 0
1/14/2016 8.69E+09 2016 7 0
1/15/2016 9.97E+09 2016 8 0
1/16/2016 9.16E+09 2016 9 0
1/17/2016 5.99E+09 2016 10 0
1/18/2016 8.25E+09 2016 11 0
1/19/2016 7.87E+09 2016 12 0
1/20/2016 8.25E+09 2016 13 0
1/21/2016 8.94E+09 2016 14 0
1/22/2016 9.56E+09 2016 15 0
1/23/2016 6.98E+09 2016 16 0
1/24/2016 5.02E+09 2016 17 0
1/25/2016 7.48E+09 2016 18 0
1/26/2016 7.9E+09 2016 19 0
1/27/2016 8.15E+09 2016 20 0
1/28/2016 8.44E+09 2016 21 0
1/29/2016 1.01E+10 2016 22 0
1/30/2016 9.53E+09 2016 23 0
1/31/2016 6.22E+09 2016 24 0
2/1/2016 8.26E+09 2016 25 0
2/2/2016 8.13E+09 2016 26 0
2/3/2016 8.57E+09 2016 27 0
2/4/2016 9.25E+09 2016 28 0
2/5/2016 1.02E+10 2016 29 0
2/6/2016 1.01E+10 2016 30 0
2/7/2016 6.34E+09 2016 31 0
2/8/2016 7.99E+09 2016 32 0
2/9/2016 8.42E+09 2016 33 0
2/10/2016 9.46E+09 2016 34 0
2/11/2016 9.97E+09 2016 35 1
2/12/2016 1.15E+10 2016 36 0
2/13/2016 1.12E+10 2016 37 0
2/14/2016 7.17E+09 2016 38 0
2/15/2016 8.69E+09 2016 39 0
2/16/2016 8.39E+09 2016 40 0
2/17/2016 8.85E+09 2016 41 0
2/18/2016 9.33E+09 2016 42 0
2/19/2016 1.05E+10 2016 43 0
2/20/2016 9.97E+09 2016 44 0
2/21/2016 6.54E+09 2016 45 0
2/22/2016 8.44E+09 2016 46 0
2/23/2016 8.39E+09 2016 47 0
2/24/2016 8.6E+09 2016 48 0
2/25/2016 9.16E+09 2016 49 0
2/26/2016 1.05E+10 2016 50 0
2/27/2016 1.03E+10 2016 51 0
2/28/2016 6.71E+09 2016 52 0
2/29/2016 9.06E+09 2016 53 0
3/1/2016 8.96E+09 2016 54 0
3/2/2016 9E+09 2016 55 0
3/3/2016 9.55E+09 2016 56 0
3/4/2016 1.07E+10 2016 57 0
3/5/2016 1.03E+10 2016 58 0
3/6/2016 6.81E+09 2016 59 0
3/7/2016 8.83E+09 2016 60 0
3/8/2016 8.91E+09 2016 61 0
3/9/2016 9.26E+09 2016 62 0
3/10/2016 9.57E+09 2016 63 0
3/11/2016 1.09E+10 2016 64 0
3/12/2016 1.03E+10 2016 65 0
3/13/2016 6.74E+09 2016 66 0
3/14/2016 8.96E+09 2016 67 0
3/15/2016 9.43E+09 2016 68 0
3/16/2016 9.4E+09 2016 69 0
3/17/2016 9.76E+09 2016 70 0
1/6/2017 9.64E+09 2017 1 0
1/7/2017 8.01E+09 2017 2 0
1/8/2017 5.92E+09 2017 3 0
1/9/2017 8.17E+09 2017 4 0
1/10/2017 8.25E+09 2017 5 0
1/11/2017 8.46E+09 2017 6 0
1/12/2017 9.12E+09 2017 7 0
1/13/2017 1.04E+10 2017 8 0
1/14/2017 9.34E+09 2017 9 0
1/15/2017 6.43E+09 2017 10 0
1/16/2017 8.58E+09 2017 11 0
1/17/2017 7.99E+09 2017 12 0
1/18/2017 8.4E+09 2017 13 0
1/19/2017 8.81E+09 2017 14 0
1/20/2017 9.69E+09 2017 15 0
1/21/2017 9.22E+09 2017 16 0
1/22/2017 6.02E+09 2017 17 0
1/23/2017 7.78E+09 2017 18 0
1/24/2017 8.05E+09 2017 19 0
1/25/2017 8.48E+09 2017 20 0
1/26/2017 8.88E+09 2017 21 0
1/27/2017 1.02E+10 2017 22 0
1/28/2017 9.55E+09 2017 23 0
1/29/2017 6.28E+09 2017 24 0
1/30/2017 8.07E+09 2017 25 0
1/31/2017 8.38E+09 2017 26 0
2/1/2017 9.04E+09 2017 27 0
2/2/2017 9.29E+09 2017 28 0
2/3/2017 1.07E+10 2017 29 0
2/4/2017 1.01E+10 2017 30 0
2/5/2017 6.46E+09 2017 31 0
2/6/2017 8.22E+09 2017 32 0
2/7/2017 8.19E+09 2017 33 0
2/8/2017 9.34E+09 2017 34 0
2/9/2017 8.19E+09 2017 35 0
2/10/2017 1.07E+10 2017 36 0
2/11/2017 1.03E+10 2017 37 0
2/12/2017 6.65E+09 2017 38 0
2/13/2017 9.23E+09 2017 39 0
2/14/2017 9.82E+09 2017 40 0
2/15/2017 8.83E+09 2017 41 0
2/16/2017 9.12E+09 2017 42 0
2/17/2017 1.06E+10 2017 43 0
2/18/2017 1.04E+10 2017 44 0
2/19/2017 7.12E+09 2017 45 0
2/20/2017 9.09E+09 2017 46 0
2/21/2017 8.59E+09 2017 47 0
2/22/2017 9.39E+09 2017 48 0
2/23/2017 1.03E+10 2017 49 1
2/24/2017 1.13E+10 2017 50 0
2/25/2017 1.08E+10 2017 51 0
2/26/2017 7.27E+09 2017 52 0
2/27/2017 8.98E+09 2017 53 0
2/28/2017 9.61E+09 2017 54 0
3/1/2017 9.73E+09 2017 55 0
3/2/2017 9.97E+09 2017 56 0
3/3/2017 1.14E+10 2017 57 0
3/4/2017 1.06E+10 2017 58 0
3/5/2017 7.37E+09 2017 59 0
3/6/2017 9.15E+09 2017 60 0
3/7/2017 9.24E+09 2017 61 0
3/8/2017 9.74E+09 2017 62 0
3/9/2017 1.02E+10 2017 63 0
3/10/2017 1.12E+10 2017 64 0
3/11/2017 1.05E+10 2017 65 0
3/12/2017 7.01E+09 2017 66 0
3/13/2017 9.71E+09 2017 67 0
3/14/2017 7.62E+09 2017 68 0
3/15/2017 9.34E+09 2017 69 0
3/16/2017 9.99E+09 2017 70 0

Note: Spending is a trailing, seven-day moving average, indexed to the second week of January in each year. Vertical lines correspond to week of peak refund issuance. The peak is the same in 2014, 2015, and 2016.

Source: First Data Merchant Services.

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Figure 4: Regression Results of Spending Response to EITC Refunds

Fraction of refund spent at retail stores and restaurants

Estimate Std. Error Lags
-0.0033 0.004357 -2
0.005713 0.004527 -1
0.075631 0.005118 0
0.041383 0.004366 1
0.018903 0.004133 2

Note: Regression coefficients are denoted by circles. The vertical brackets show the 95-percent confidence intervals for each coefficient, constructed from Newey-West standard errors. Sample includes 2014 to 2017.

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Figure 5: Estimated Spending out of EITC Refunds by Store Category

Fraction of refund spent at each type of store

Estimate NAICS
0.015081 Groceries
0.019101 Restaurants
0.010931 Electronics
0.070101 General Merchandise
0.023119 Other Retail Sales Group

Note: The above estimates are from regressions using the same specification as equation (1), where the spending totals are within each category. Each of the estimates is statistically different from zero at the one-percent level using Newey-West standard errors. The estimate for “Other Retail Stores” is the residual of the total spending estimate.

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Last Update: June 21, 2018