Accessible Version
Improving Housing Payment Projections during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Accessible Data
Figure 1. State-level forecasted and actual on-time payment rates in July using the binary approach and the historical approach, by housing tenure
A two-panel figure, which has the actual percent of on-time payments in July on the Y-axis and the predicted on-time payments using each forecasting model on the X-axis. Panel A shows the predicted and actual on-time payment rate using the binary model for each state with renters shown in blue and owners shown in orange. A linear trend-line runs through these points. Points in Figure A are concentrated are above the 45 degree line, indicating that actual on-time payment rates are above the predicted on-time payment rates. The difference between actual and expected results is greater for renters than for owners. Panel B shows the predicted and actual on-time payment rate using the historical probability model for each state with renters shown in blue and owners shown in orange. Points are concentrated close to the 45 degree line, indicating that actual and predicted on-time payment rates are similar, although they are slightly below the 45 degree line so actual on-time payment rates are slightly below the predicted results.
Notes: Forecasted results are based on all responses in June. Actual results from responses in the first three week in July. Bubble size represents the number of owners or renters in the state. Linear trend lines are weighted by the number of renters and owners with a mortgage in each state. The binary approach assumes that those who have moderate or high confidence that they will pay on time do so, whereas those who have no or slight confidence that they will pay on time to do not. The historical approach is based on the implied probabilities from late May. Deferrals and those expecting to have their payment deferred are included with payments not made on time.
Source: Author's calculations using the June and July Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey.