Accessible Version
Longer-Run Neutral Rates in Major Advanced Economies, Accessible Data
Figure 1. Neutral Nominal Interest Rates across Advanced Economies
| Date | United States | Canada | Euro Area | United Kingdom |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 3.41995766 | 4.14798131 | 3.423444223 | 3.440962267 |
| 1990.5 | 3.450137864 | 4.196935162 | 3.461446434 | 3.538373864 |
| 1991 | 3.499619676 | 4.29547326 | 3.514112141 | 3.686499827 |
| 1991.5 | 3.575646909 | 4.40915608 | 3.601939526 | 3.878266426 |
| 1992 | 3.650190022 | 4.518680169 | 3.656733998 | 4.034037113 |
| 1992.5 | 3.739228 | 4.654132613 | 3.718511369 | 4.212751492 |
| 1993 | 3.827889441 | 4.778510259 | 3.785707178 | 4.365052595 |
| 1993.5 | 3.883687644 | 4.863061444 | 3.81146444 | 4.459803662 |
| 1994 | 3.909013783 | 4.888164819 | 3.799623395 | 4.491614901 |
| 1994.5 | 3.885181685 | 4.853655793 | 3.726791572 | 4.445400945 |
| 1995 | 3.894876928 | 4.838404447 | 3.6593065 | 4.410324715 |
| 1995.5 | 3.887277841 | 4.805950748 | 3.568304005 | 4.34592391 |
| 1996 | 3.918137305 | 4.81551789 | 3.505773348 | 4.320032623 |
| 1996.5 | 3.959905573 | 4.861463507 | 3.443954381 | 4.300517109 |
| 1997 | 3.979212772 | 4.897917535 | 3.370820942 | 4.262185542 |
| 1997.5 | 3.982633784 | 4.92546138 | 3.285084655 | 4.206321086 |
| 1998 | 3.967868904 | 4.943621961 | 3.190272113 | 4.138278813 |
| 1998.5 | 3.918200541 | 4.919868987 | 3.062662354 | 4.035959765 |
| 1999 | 3.86242149 | 4.903254336 | 2.947766331 | 3.948696743 |
| 1999.5 | 3.790327865 | 4.849977748 | 2.835368106 | 3.860057931 |
| 2000 | 3.697579088 | 4.765108252 | 2.715280919 | 3.762431911 |
| 2000.5 | 3.576486419 | 4.653646647 | 2.586851538 | 3.658103244 |
| 2001 | 3.509995368 | 4.577422099 | 2.515172149 | 3.61203294 |
| 2001.5 | 3.460924455 | 4.50567071 | 2.461513885 | 3.582149463 |
| 2002 | 3.404263891 | 4.433068488 | 2.406576034 | 3.548884611 |
| 2002.5 | 3.32812547 | 4.345116468 | 2.348057256 | 3.499157351 |
| 2003 | 3.251981016 | 4.259320306 | 2.292586713 | 3.434450876 |
| 2003.5 | 3.141958154 | 4.149880324 | 2.217085611 | 3.340290085 |
| 2004 | 3.020561712 | 4.037411315 | 2.13988115 | 3.221024271 |
| 2004.5 | 2.888931795 | 3.919477989 | 2.046948988 | 3.072920163 |
| 2005 | 2.748368585 | 3.797213676 | 1.955290248 | 2.912670189 |
| 2005.5 | 2.567103683 | 3.631021917 | 1.817575821 | 2.702576901 |
| 2006 | 2.373430608 | 3.442232825 | 1.666287825 | 2.486219375 |
| 2006.5 | 2.115168742 | 3.1988993 | 1.449775141 | 2.205103281 |
| 2007 | 1.863407781 | 2.956989872 | 1.217637595 | 1.904699135 |
| 2007.5 | 1.626690288 | 2.724019415 | 0.985870749 | 1.597601408 |
| 2008 | 1.450062731 | 2.562318504 | 0.801791583 | 1.342470683 |
| 2008.5 | 1.443977992 | 2.568292904 | 0.778743083 | 1.271536993 |
| 2009 | 1.543236507 | 2.701163539 | 0.853787582 | 1.309106451 |
| 2009.5 | 1.597062088 | 2.777434157 | 0.894516209 | 1.311674882 |
| 2010 | 1.640668411 | 2.864371228 | 0.967685165 | 1.357394417 |
| 2010.5 | 1.663110504 | 2.931788598 | 1.029465942 | 1.408629008 |
| 2011 | 1.680730429 | 2.985557273 | 1.081536075 | 1.470311047 |
| 2011.5 | 1.70192323 | 3.039352275 | 1.141008408 | 1.561609954 |
| 2012 | 1.757278254 | 3.112396277 | 1.233674683 | 1.673146467 |
| 2012.5 | 1.777396551 | 3.145931315 | 1.287064587 | 1.751052135 |
| 2013 | 1.801683717 | 3.166802608 | 1.337190464 | 1.829811363 |
| 2013.5 | 1.790203943 | 3.154453969 | 1.347781726 | 1.87573867 |
| 2014 | 1.782900082 | 3.146251922 | 1.354964353 | 1.910286774 |
| 2014.5 | 1.7945227 | 3.138459372 | 1.388423283 | 1.960300444 |
| 2015 | 1.835761964 | 3.15848654 | 1.442311025 | 2.037027885 |
| 2015.5 | 1.855089123 | 3.16632732 | 1.462490362 | 2.070784982 |
| 2016 | 1.842575957 | 3.13993294 | 1.438009638 | 2.056411049 |
| 2016.5 | 1.803088952 | 3.089048242 | 1.366108013 | 1.993705998 |
| 2017 | 1.75146048 | 3.027323233 | 1.266367945 | 1.905335829 |
| 2017.5 | 1.736240852 | 2.99286144 | 1.181606336 | 1.839699335 |
| 2018 | 1.779923249 | 3.019654217 | 1.150114027 | 1.818984347 |
| 2018.5 | 1.81944291 | 3.032965731 | 1.104230521 | 1.795933346 |
| 2019 | 1.873623155 | 3.053376898 | 1.075856635 | 1.796132758 |
| 2019.5 | 1.917823761 | 3.06882047 | 1.118248798 | 1.870388491 |
| 2020 | 2.368517961 | 3.407381653 | 1.317656243 | 2.12470514 |
| 2020.5 | 2.469607886 | 3.442185852 | 1.431563987 | 2.312953879 |
| 2021 | 2.466781932 | 3.321716139 | 1.391830847 | 2.347947264 |
| 2021.5 | 2.433088048 | 3.16233378 | 1.343483395 | 2.391470613 |
| 2022 | 2.462993288 | 3.162556744 | 1.409434699 | 2.478308267 |
Note: The figure shows nominal neutral interest rates estimated using the model from Ferreira and Shousha (2021) for the United States (black), Canada (red), the euro area (gray), and the United Kingdom (blue). These estimates come from a two-sided Kalman-filter that calculates real neutral rates for each economy and then adds the 2 percent inflation target from each central bank.
Source: Staff estimates.
*Note: The accessible data table for Figure 1 was updated on December 22, 2022 to ensure consistency between the figure and data.
Last Update:
December 22, 2022