Accessible Version
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: The Role of Inflation Expectations, Accessibile Data
Figure 1. Inflation and estimated natural rate of interest from the HLW model.
Panel A: Core PCE and CPI inflation (percent annualized)
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Date | PCE-based | CPI-Based |
---|---|---|
7/1/1961 | 1.73 | 1.72 |
10/1/1961 | 0.97 | 1.29 |
1/1/1962 | 1.47 | 0.87 |
4/1/1962 | 1.54 | 1.69 |
7/1/1962 | 1.31 | 1.26 |
10/1/1962 | 0.75 | 0.86 |
1/1/1963 | 1.33 | 0.84 |
4/1/1963 | 1.51 | 1.68 |
7/1/1963 | 1.53 | 1.68 |
10/1/1963 | 1.93 | 2.10 |
1/1/1964 | 1.68 | 2.07 |
4/1/1964 | 1.20 | 0.41 |
7/1/1964 | 1.10 | 0.83 |
10/1/1964 | 1.01 | 2.05 |
1/1/1965 | 1.50 | 1.64 |
4/1/1965 | 1.26 | 1.23 |
7/1/1965 | 1.22 | 0.40 |
10/1/1965 | 1.34 | 2.04 |
1/1/1966 | 1.99 | 2.01 |
4/1/1966 | 3.23 | 4.03 |
7/1/1966 | 3.28 | 3.56 |
10/1/1966 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
1/1/1967 | 2.20 | 2.35 |
4/1/1967 | 2.67 | 3.09 |
7/1/1967 | 3.60 | 4.21 |
10/1/1967 | 4.03 | 4.21 |
1/1/1968 | 4.53 | 4.88 |
4/1/1968 | 4.63 | 4.10 |
7/1/1968 | 4.43 | 5.50 |
10/1/1968 | 4.64 | 5.81 |
1/1/1969 | 4.36 | 5.35 |
4/1/1969 | 4.76 | 6.34 |
7/1/1969 | 4.58 | 5.54 |
10/1/1969 | 4.67 | 5.50 |
1/1/1970 | 4.35 | 6.08 |
4/1/1970 | 4.49 | 7.28 |
7/1/1970 | 4.40 | 5.21 |
10/1/1970 | 5.60 | 6.45 |
1/1/1971 | 5.03 | 3.81 |
4/1/1971 | 4.54 | 4.10 |
7/1/1971 | 3.75 | 3.42 |
10/1/1971 | 2.28 | 2.17 |
1/1/1972 | 3.81 | 3.37 |
4/1/1972 | 2.70 | 3.06 |
7/1/1972 | 2.99 | 3.02 |
10/1/1972 | 2.52 | 2.12 |
1/1/1973 | 2.78 | 2.98 |
4/1/1973 | 5.41 | 4.15 |
7/1/1973 | 5.26 | 4.07 |
10/1/1973 | 5.55 | 6.68 |
1/1/1974 | 6.82 | 6.27 |
4/1/1974 | 9.81 | 10.30 |
7/1/1974 | 11.24 | 13.47 |
10/1/1974 | 9.69 | 11.58 |
1/1/1975 | 7.74 | 8.41 |
4/1/1975 | 6.05 | 6.30 |
7/1/1975 | 5.94 | 5.18 |
10/1/1975 | 6.48 | 6.84 |
1/1/1976 | 6.03 | 7.43 |
4/1/1976 | 4.77 | 5.42 |
7/1/1976 | 6.19 | 6.48 |
10/1/1976 | 6.24 | 5.51 |
1/1/1977 | 6.66 | 6.53 |
4/1/1977 | 6.08 | 6.43 |
7/1/1977 | 6.58 | 5.66 |
10/1/1977 | 5.79 | 5.41 |
1/1/1978 | 6.20 | 7.00 |
4/1/1978 | 6.83 | 8.11 |
7/1/1978 | 6.78 | 8.52 |
10/1/1978 | 7.14 | 8.81 |
1/1/1979 | 5.45 | 9.16 |
4/1/1979 | 8.69 | 9.34 |
7/1/1979 | 7.28 | 10.19 |
10/1/1979 | 8.29 | 11.98 |
1/1/1980 | 9.66 | 14.53 |
4/1/1980 | 8.85 | 13.17 |
7/1/1980 | 8.77 | 5.91 |
10/1/1980 | 9.67 | 12.30 |
1/1/1981 | 8.77 | 9.26 |
4/1/1981 | 7.50 | 8.75 |
7/1/1981 | 7.27 | 13.24 |
10/1/1981 | 7.07 | 7.76 |
1/1/1982 | 5.82 | 4.85 |
4/1/1982 | 5.37 | 7.35 |
7/1/1982 | 6.34 | 6.64 |
10/1/1982 | 5.55 | 1.38 |
1/1/1983 | 5.21 | 2.45 |
4/1/1983 | 3.05 | 3.94 |
7/1/1983 | 6.02 | 4.94 |
10/1/1983 | 3.20 | 5.17 |
1/1/1984 | 4.02 | 5.49 |
4/1/1984 | 4.66 | 4.89 |
7/1/1984 | 3.73 | 4.95 |
10/1/1984 | 2.84 | 4.05 |
1/1/1985 | 5.41 | 4.35 |
4/1/1985 | 3.46 | 4.20 |
7/1/1985 | 4.07 | 3.53 |
10/1/1985 | 2.87 | 4.60 |
1/1/1986 | 4.30 | 4.31 |
4/1/1986 | 2.73 | 3.31 |
7/1/1986 | 2.72 | 3.74 |
10/1/1986 | 3.25 | 3.85 |
1/1/1987 | 2.51 | 3.23 |
4/1/1987 | 3.86 | 4.79 |
7/1/1987 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
10/1/1987 | 4.06 | 4.59 |
1/1/1988 | 3.85 | 3.87 |
4/1/1988 | 4.81 | 4.80 |
7/1/1988 | 4.56 | 4.41 |
10/1/1988 | 4.47 | 4.83 |
1/1/1989 | 4.34 | 4.23 |
4/1/1989 | 3.62 | 4.28 |
7/1/1989 | 2.96 | 3.81 |
10/1/1989 | 3.65 | 4.82 |
1/1/1990 | 4.58 | 5.06 |
4/1/1990 | 4.44 | 5.18 |
7/1/1990 | 4.01 | 5.89 |
10/1/1990 | 3.36 | 4.59 |
1/1/1991 | 3.53 | 5.74 |
4/1/1991 | 3.08 | 3.61 |
7/1/1991 | 3.57 | 4.30 |
10/1/1991 | 3.15 | 3.73 |
1/1/1992 | 3.04 | 3.50 |
4/1/1992 | 2.82 | 3.47 |
7/1/1992 | 2.36 | 3.07 |
10/1/1992 | 2.93 | 3.60 |
1/1/1993 | 2.75 | 3.46 |
4/1/1993 | 3.03 | 3.36 |
7/1/1993 | 2.22 | 2.36 |
10/1/1993 | 2.06 | 3.14 |
1/1/1994 | 1.82 | 2.60 |
4/1/1994 | 2.68 | 2.74 |
7/1/1994 | 2.22 | 2.97 |
10/1/1994 | 2.03 | 2.55 |
1/1/1995 | 2.10 | 3.36 |
4/1/1995 | 2.37 | 3.24 |
7/1/1995 | 1.90 | 2.64 |
10/1/1995 | 2.01 | 2.80 |
1/1/1996 | 1.57 | 2.69 |
4/1/1996 | 1.89 | 2.35 |
7/1/1996 | 1.81 | 2.57 |
10/1/1996 | 2.28 | 2.57 |
1/1/1997 | 1.57 | 2.31 |
4/1/1997 | 2.08 | 2.53 |
7/1/1997 | 0.93 | 1.72 |
10/1/1997 | 1.27 | 2.28 |
1/1/1998 | 1.18 | 2.41 |
4/1/1998 | 1.23 | 2.24 |
7/1/1998 | 1.41 | 2.38 |
10/1/1998 | 1.27 | 2.23 |
1/1/1999 | 1.30 | 1.75 |
4/1/1999 | 1.29 | 1.89 |
7/1/1999 | 1.37 | 2.10 |
10/1/1999 | 1.81 | 2.26 |
1/1/2000 | 2.19 | 2.62 |
4/1/2000 | 1.27 | 2.51 |
7/1/2000 | 1.80 | 2.64 |
10/1/2000 | 1.92 | 2.42 |
1/1/2001 | 2.30 | 2.90 |
4/1/2001 | 1.51 | 2.45 |
7/1/2001 | 1.09 | 2.72 |
10/1/2001 | 2.00 | 2.64 |
1/1/2002 | 1.16 | 2.19 |
4/1/2002 | 2.29 | 2.05 |
7/1/2002 | 1.99 | 2.09 |
10/1/2002 | 1.41 | 1.82 |
1/1/2003 | 0.96 | 1.32 |
4/1/2003 | 1.18 | 0.70 |
7/1/2003 | 1.63 | 1.58 |
10/1/2003 | 1.64 | 1.04 |
1/1/2004 | 2.46 | 1.92 |
4/1/2004 | 2.34 | 2.52 |
7/1/2004 | 1.48 | 1.69 |
10/1/2004 | 2.16 | 2.44 |
1/1/2005 | 2.79 | 2.49 |
4/1/2005 | 1.83 | 1.86 |
7/1/2005 | 1.49 | 1.32 |
10/1/2005 | 2.59 | 2.65 |
1/1/2006 | 2.26 | 2.50 |
4/1/2006 | 2.83 | 3.25 |
7/1/2006 | 2.14 | 2.71 |
10/1/2006 | 1.72 | 2.07 |
1/1/2007 | 2.88 | 2.33 |
4/1/2007 | 1.49 | 1.94 |
7/1/2007 | 1.94 | 2.05 |
10/1/2007 | 2.60 | 2.81 |
1/1/2008 | 2.22 | 2.65 |
4/1/2008 | 1.91 | 1.73 |
7/1/2008 | 1.87 | 2.56 |
10/1/2008 | 0.19 | 0.98 |
1/1/2009 | 0.37 | 1.68 |
4/1/2009 | 1.80 | 2.03 |
7/1/2009 | 1.41 | 1.18 |
10/1/2009 | 2.49 | 2.05 |
1/1/2010 | 1.16 | 0.06 |
4/1/2010 | 0.89 | 0.50 |
7/1/2010 | 0.53 | 0.96 |
10/1/2010 | 1.09 | 1.05 |
1/1/2011 | 1.89 | 1.88 |
4/1/2011 | 2.34 | 1.87 |
7/1/2011 | 1.92 | 2.72 |
10/1/2011 | 1.48 | 2.14 |
1/1/2012 | 2.62 | 2.10 |
4/1/2012 | 1.65 | 1.96 |
7/1/2012 | 1.13 | 1.80 |
10/1/2012 | 1.77 | 1.87 |
1/1/2013 | 1.58 | 2.02 |
4/1/2013 | 1.24 | 0.91 |
7/1/2013 | 1.54 | 2.13 |
10/1/2013 | 1.91 | 1.78 |
1/1/2014 | 1.32 | 1.55 |
4/1/2014 | 1.87 | 2.06 |
7/1/2014 | 1.47 | 1.64 |
10/1/2014 | 1.10 | 1.59 |
1/1/2015 | 0.73 | 1.40 |
4/1/2015 | 1.70 | 2.41 |
7/1/2015 | 1.35 | 1.97 |
10/1/2015 | 0.99 | 2.12 |
1/1/2016 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
4/1/2016 | 1.99 | 2.31 |
7/1/2016 | 1.94 | 2.11 |
10/1/2016 | 1.44 | 1.97 |
1/1/2017 | 1.64 | 2.05 |
4/1/2017 | 1.32 | 0.97 |
7/1/2017 | 1.46 | 1.71 |
10/1/2017 | 2.16 | 2.28 |
1/1/2018 | 2.26 | 2.61 |
4/1/2018 | 2.11 | 2.19 |
7/1/2018 | 1.55 | 1.86 |
10/1/2018 | 1.73 | 2.01 |
1/1/2019 | 1.05 | 2.21 |
4/1/2019 | 1.84 | 2.13 |
7/1/2019 | 2.09 | 2.77 |
10/1/2019 | 1.28 | 1.96 |
Panel B: HLW estimates of natural rate of interest using PCE or CPI inflation (percent annualized)
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Date | Core PCE inflation | Core CPI inflation |
---|---|---|
7/1/1961 | 5.57 | 5.68 |
10/1/1961 | 5.43 | 5.51 |
1/1/1962 | 5.15 | 5.23 |
4/1/1962 | 4.55 | 4.53 |
7/1/1962 | 4.37 | 4.37 |
10/1/1962 | 3.89 | 3.93 |
1/1/1963 | 3.86 | 3.93 |
4/1/1963 | 3.83 | 3.91 |
7/1/1963 | 4.13 | 4.21 |
10/1/1963 | 3.91 | 3.99 |
1/1/1964 | 4.17 | 4.25 |
4/1/1964 | 4.08 | 4.20 |
7/1/1964 | 4.15 | 4.28 |
10/1/1964 | 3.91 | 4.07 |
1/1/1965 | 4.25 | 4.38 |
4/1/1965 | 4.23 | 4.37 |
7/1/1965 | 4.46 | 4.57 |
10/1/1965 | 4.67 | 4.74 |
1/1/1966 | 4.90 | 4.91 |
4/1/1966 | 4.72 | 4.71 |
7/1/1966 | 4.71 | 4.69 |
10/1/1966 | 4.70 | 4.68 |
1/1/1967 | 4.61 | 4.66 |
4/1/1967 | 4.41 | 4.51 |
7/1/1967 | 4.46 | 4.54 |
10/1/1967 | 4.43 | 4.50 |
1/1/1968 | 4.68 | 4.67 |
4/1/1968 | 4.75 | 4.70 |
7/1/1968 | 4.61 | 4.61 |
10/1/1968 | 4.46 | 4.50 |
1/1/1969 | 4.54 | 4.58 |
4/1/1969 | 4.38 | 4.46 |
7/1/1969 | 4.31 | 4.41 |
10/1/1969 | 4.06 | 4.20 |
1/1/1970 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
4/1/1970 | 3.84 | 4.06 |
7/1/1970 | 3.90 | 4.07 |
10/1/1970 | 3.64 | 3.78 |
1/1/1971 | 4.04 | 4.03 |
4/1/1971 | 3.81 | 3.86 |
7/1/1971 | 3.59 | 3.74 |
10/1/1971 | 3.17 | 3.53 |
1/1/1972 | 3.41 | 3.65 |
4/1/1972 | 3.47 | 3.78 |
7/1/1972 | 3.35 | 3.68 |
10/1/1972 | 3.37 | 3.70 |
1/1/1973 | 3.61 | 3.88 |
4/1/1973 | 3.88 | 3.86 |
7/1/1973 | 3.65 | 3.63 |
10/1/1973 | 3.86 | 3.80 |
1/1/1974 | 3.80 | 3.62 |
4/1/1974 | 4.27 | 3.78 |
7/1/1974 | 4.37 | 3.76 |
10/1/1974 | 4.21 | 3.71 |
1/1/1975 | 3.64 | 3.40 |
4/1/1975 | 3.33 | 3.34 |
7/1/1975 | 3.27 | 3.33 |
10/1/1975 | 3.23 | 3.32 |
1/1/1976 | 3.31 | 3.45 |
4/1/1976 | 2.93 | 3.24 |
7/1/1976 | 2.90 | 3.13 |
10/1/1976 | 2.84 | 3.03 |
1/1/1977 | 2.95 | 3.06 |
4/1/1977 | 3.06 | 3.18 |
7/1/1977 | 3.20 | 3.22 |
10/1/1977 | 2.79 | 2.99 |
1/1/1978 | 2.69 | 2.95 |
4/1/1978 | 3.40 | 3.47 |
7/1/1978 | 3.31 | 3.45 |
10/1/1978 | 3.42 | 3.51 |
1/1/1979 | 3.00 | 3.41 |
4/1/1979 | 3.34 | 3.34 |
7/1/1979 | 3.28 | 3.42 |
10/1/1979 | 3.40 | 3.46 |
1/1/1980 | 3.68 | 3.59 |
4/1/1980 | 3.16 | 3.23 |
7/1/1980 | 3.22 | 2.92 |
10/1/1980 | 3.71 | 3.33 |
1/1/1981 | 3.85 | 3.37 |
4/1/1981 | 3.33 | 3.06 |
7/1/1981 | 3.45 | 3.41 |
10/1/1981 | 3.09 | 2.98 |
1/1/1982 | 2.56 | 2.54 |
4/1/1982 | 2.58 | 2.66 |
7/1/1982 | 2.62 | 2.51 |
10/1/1982 | 2.52 | 2.23 |
1/1/1983 | 2.66 | 2.32 |
4/1/1983 | 2.57 | 2.56 |
7/1/1983 | 3.11 | 2.74 |
10/1/1983 | 2.88 | 2.92 |
1/1/1984 | 3.09 | 3.07 |
4/1/1984 | 3.32 | 3.13 |
7/1/1984 | 3.16 | 3.10 |
10/1/1984 | 3.01 | 3.04 |
1/1/1985 | 3.47 | 3.07 |
4/1/1985 | 3.26 | 3.07 |
7/1/1985 | 3.49 | 3.15 |
10/1/1985 | 3.24 | 3.16 |
1/1/1986 | 3.43 | 3.17 |
4/1/1986 | 3.11 | 3.06 |
7/1/1986 | 3.09 | 3.11 |
10/1/1986 | 3.09 | 3.06 |
1/1/1987 | 2.94 | 3.02 |
4/1/1987 | 3.21 | 3.14 |
7/1/1987 | 3.22 | 3.10 |
10/1/1987 | 3.51 | 3.27 |
1/1/1988 | 3.41 | 3.16 |
4/1/1988 | 3.68 | 3.27 |
7/1/1988 | 3.61 | 3.20 |
10/1/1988 | 3.71 | 3.30 |
1/1/1989 | 3.71 | 3.30 |
4/1/1989 | 3.55 | 3.28 |
7/1/1989 | 3.38 | 3.26 |
10/1/1989 | 3.36 | 3.23 |
1/1/1990 | 3.66 | 3.35 |
4/1/1990 | 3.65 | 3.32 |
7/1/1990 | 3.50 | 3.29 |
10/1/1990 | 3.07 | 3.00 |
1/1/1991 | 2.90 | 2.94 |
4/1/1991 | 2.89 | 2.90 |
7/1/1991 | 2.93 | 2.87 |
10/1/1991 | 2.79 | 2.76 |
1/1/1992 | 2.85 | 2.78 |
4/1/1992 | 2.82 | 2.78 |
7/1/1992 | 2.69 | 2.72 |
10/1/1992 | 2.75 | 2.73 |
1/1/1993 | 2.53 | 2.57 |
4/1/1993 | 2.53 | 2.52 |
7/1/1993 | 2.31 | 2.39 |
10/1/1993 | 2.34 | 2.49 |
1/1/1994 | 2.25 | 2.45 |
4/1/1994 | 2.46 | 2.50 |
7/1/1994 | 2.33 | 2.44 |
10/1/1994 | 2.37 | 2.47 |
1/1/1995 | 2.28 | 2.43 |
4/1/1995 | 2.27 | 2.39 |
7/1/1995 | 2.29 | 2.41 |
10/1/1995 | 2.34 | 2.42 |
1/1/1996 | 2.30 | 2.43 |
4/1/1996 | 2.57 | 2.56 |
7/1/1996 | 2.58 | 2.57 |
10/1/1996 | 2.74 | 2.60 |
1/1/1997 | 2.62 | 2.55 |
4/1/1997 | 2.89 | 2.71 |
7/1/1997 | 2.76 | 2.70 |
10/1/1997 | 2.77 | 2.71 |
1/1/1998 | 2.79 | 2.75 |
4/1/1998 | 2.82 | 2.76 |
7/1/1998 | 2.98 | 2.85 |
10/1/1998 | 3.13 | 2.96 |
1/1/1999 | 3.14 | 2.91 |
4/1/1999 | 3.12 | 2.88 |
7/1/1999 | 3.23 | 2.96 |
10/1/1999 | 3.48 | 3.09 |
1/1/2000 | 3.44 | 3.01 |
4/1/2000 | 3.52 | 3.18 |
7/1/2000 | 3.41 | 3.05 |
10/1/2000 | 3.43 | 3.03 |
1/1/2001 | 3.32 | 2.91 |
4/1/2001 | 3.24 | 2.92 |
7/1/2001 | 2.91 | 2.77 |
10/1/2001 | 2.97 | 2.73 |
1/1/2002 | 2.86 | 2.73 |
4/1/2002 | 2.98 | 2.66 |
7/1/2002 | 2.85 | 2.57 |
10/1/2002 | 2.58 | 2.42 |
1/1/2003 | 2.39 | 2.33 |
4/1/2003 | 2.35 | 2.26 |
7/1/2003 | 2.56 | 2.40 |
10/1/2003 | 2.57 | 2.36 |
1/1/2004 | 2.61 | 2.31 |
4/1/2004 | 2.59 | 2.34 |
7/1/2004 | 2.42 | 2.30 |
10/1/2004 | 2.49 | 2.35 |
1/1/2005 | 2.62 | 2.38 |
4/1/2005 | 2.36 | 2.25 |
7/1/2005 | 2.28 | 2.22 |
10/1/2005 | 2.40 | 2.25 |
1/1/2006 | 2.49 | 2.35 |
4/1/2006 | 2.49 | 2.32 |
7/1/2006 | 2.31 | 2.24 |
10/1/2006 | 2.28 | 2.25 |
1/1/2007 | 2.40 | 2.19 |
4/1/2007 | 2.19 | 2.16 |
7/1/2007 | 2.24 | 2.15 |
10/1/2007 | 2.38 | 2.21 |
1/1/2008 | 2.10 | 2.03 |
4/1/2008 | 2.08 | 2.00 |
7/1/2008 | 1.81 | 1.86 |
10/1/2008 | 0.90 | 1.33 |
1/1/2009 | 0.58 | 1.17 |
4/1/2009 | 0.75 | 1.16 |
7/1/2009 | 0.74 | 1.11 |
10/1/2009 | 1.11 | 1.25 |
1/1/2010 | 0.85 | 1.04 |
4/1/2010 | 0.79 | 1.04 |
7/1/2010 | 0.65 | 1.04 |
10/1/2010 | 0.64 | 0.99 |
1/1/2011 | 0.62 | 0.91 |
4/1/2011 | 0.82 | 0.97 |
7/1/2011 | 0.68 | 0.94 |
10/1/2011 | 0.74 | 1.03 |
1/1/2012 | 0.93 | 1.03 |
4/1/2012 | 0.71 | 0.95 |
7/1/2012 | 0.47 | 0.84 |
10/1/2012 | 0.45 | 0.76 |
1/1/2013 | 0.49 | 0.83 |
4/1/2013 | 0.32 | 0.66 |
7/1/2013 | 0.42 | 0.76 |
10/1/2013 | 0.53 | 0.77 |
1/1/2014 | 0.25 | 0.60 |
4/1/2014 | 0.53 | 0.78 |
7/1/2014 | 0.57 | 0.83 |
10/1/2014 | 0.43 | 0.78 |
1/1/2015 | 0.35 | 0.77 |
4/1/2015 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
7/1/2015 | 0.40 | 0.76 |
10/1/2015 | 0.23 | 0.68 |
1/1/2016 | 0.35 | 0.70 |
4/1/2016 | 0.43 | 0.69 |
7/1/2016 | 0.46 | 0.68 |
10/1/2016 | 0.37 | 0.65 |
1/1/2017 | 0.38 | 0.64 |
4/1/2017 | 0.30 | 0.55 |
7/1/2017 | 0.35 | 0.60 |
10/1/2017 | 0.54 | 0.68 |
1/1/2018 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
4/1/2018 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
7/1/2018 | 0.58 | 0.73 |
10/1/2018 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
1/1/2019 | 0.41 | 0.72 |
4/1/2019 | 0.51 | 0.71 |
7/1/2019 | 0.59 | 0.76 |
10/1/2019 | 0.48 | 0.72 |
Figure 2. Proxies of short- and long-run inflation expectations.
Panel A: Short-run inflation expectations (percent)
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Date | HLW | Livingston |
---|---|---|
1/1/1960 | 2.09 | 0.94 |
4/1/1960 | 1.76 | 0.70 |
7/1/1960 | 1.21 | 0.55 |
10/1/1960 | 1.09 | 0.59 |
1/1/1961 | 0.87 | 0.68 |
4/1/1961 | 0.97 | 0.88 |
7/1/1961 | 1.51 | 1.02 |
10/1/1961 | 1.29 | 1.05 |
1/1/1962 | 1.29 | 1.07 |
4/1/1962 | 1.39 | 1.06 |
7/1/1962 | 1.28 | 1.06 |
10/1/1962 | 1.17 | 1.05 |
1/1/1963 | 1.16 | 1.05 |
4/1/1963 | 1.16 | 1.05 |
7/1/1963 | 1.26 | 1.05 |
10/1/1963 | 1.57 | 1.04 |
1/1/1964 | 1.88 | 1.08 |
4/1/1964 | 1.56 | 1.19 |
7/1/1964 | 1.35 | 1.26 |
10/1/1964 | 1.34 | 1.21 |
1/1/1965 | 1.23 | 1.14 |
4/1/1965 | 1.44 | 1.02 |
7/1/1965 | 1.33 | 1.06 |
10/1/1965 | 1.33 | 1.40 |
1/1/1966 | 1.42 | 1.68 |
4/1/1966 | 2.12 | 1.81 |
7/1/1966 | 2.91 | 1.96 |
10/1/1966 | 3.39 | 2.13 |
1/1/1967 | 3.47 | 2.26 |
4/1/1967 | 3.24 | 2.33 |
7/1/1967 | 3.40 | 2.44 |
10/1/1967 | 3.47 | 2.66 |
1/1/1968 | 4.10 | 2.82 |
4/1/1968 | 4.35 | 2.88 |
7/1/1968 | 4.67 | 2.91 |
10/1/1968 | 5.07 | 2.87 |
1/1/1969 | 5.19 | 2.95 |
4/1/1969 | 5.75 | 3.25 |
7/1/1969 | 5.76 | 3.45 |
10/1/1969 | 5.68 | 3.43 |
1/1/1970 | 5.86 | 3.51 |
4/1/1970 | 6.10 | 3.77 |
7/1/1970 | 6.02 | 3.92 |
10/1/1970 | 6.26 | 3.84 |
1/1/1971 | 5.69 | 3.85 |
4/1/1971 | 4.89 | 4.01 |
7/1/1971 | 4.45 | 3.95 |
10/1/1971 | 3.38 | 3.42 |
1/1/1972 | 3.27 | 3.17 |
4/1/1972 | 3.01 | 3.45 |
7/1/1972 | 2.90 | 3.62 |
10/1/1972 | 2.89 | 3.55 |
1/1/1973 | 2.79 | 3.61 |
4/1/1973 | 3.07 | 3.92 |
7/1/1973 | 3.33 | 4.31 |
10/1/1973 | 4.47 | 4.87 |
1/1/1974 | 5.29 | 5.55 |
4/1/1974 | 6.83 | 6.44 |
7/1/1974 | 9.18 | 7.05 |
10/1/1974 | 10.41 | 7.09 |
1/1/1975 | 10.94 | 6.87 |
4/1/1975 | 9.94 | 6.10 |
7/1/1975 | 7.87 | 5.64 |
10/1/1975 | 6.68 | 5.80 |
1/1/1976 | 6.44 | 5.88 |
4/1/1976 | 6.22 | 5.79 |
7/1/1976 | 6.54 | 5.65 |
10/1/1976 | 6.21 | 5.42 |
1/1/1977 | 5.98 | 5.39 |
4/1/1977 | 6.24 | 5.76 |
7/1/1977 | 6.03 | 6.05 |
10/1/1977 | 6.01 | 6.16 |
1/1/1978 | 6.13 | 6.31 |
4/1/1978 | 6.54 | 6.53 |
7/1/1978 | 7.26 | 6.78 |
10/1/1978 | 8.11 | 7.06 |
1/1/1979 | 8.65 | 7.48 |
4/1/1979 | 8.96 | 8.18 |
7/1/1979 | 9.37 | 8.80 |
10/1/1979 | 10.17 | 9.25 |
1/1/1980 | 11.51 | 9.57 |
4/1/1980 | 12.47 | 9.62 |
7/1/1980 | 11.40 | 9.75 |
10/1/1980 | 11.48 | 10.03 |
1/1/1981 | 10.16 | 9.90 |
4/1/1981 | 9.06 | 8.98 |
7/1/1981 | 10.89 | 8.19 |
10/1/1981 | 9.75 | 7.68 |
1/1/1982 | 8.65 | 7.05 |
4/1/1982 | 8.30 | 6.19 |
7/1/1982 | 6.65 | 5.50 |
10/1/1982 | 5.06 | 5.17 |
1/1/1983 | 4.46 | 4.92 |
4/1/1983 | 3.60 | 4.83 |
7/1/1983 | 3.18 | 4.85 |
10/1/1983 | 4.12 | 5.09 |
1/1/1984 | 4.89 | 5.31 |
4/1/1984 | 5.12 | 5.47 |
7/1/1984 | 5.13 | 5.39 |
10/1/1984 | 4.84 | 4.81 |
1/1/1985 | 4.56 | 4.43 |
4/1/1985 | 4.39 | 4.41 |
7/1/1985 | 4.03 | 4.30 |
10/1/1985 | 4.17 | 4.01 |
1/1/1986 | 4.16 | 3.78 |
4/1/1986 | 3.94 | 3.67 |
7/1/1986 | 3.99 | 3.61 |
10/1/1986 | 3.80 | 3.62 |
1/1/1987 | 3.53 | 3.76 |
4/1/1987 | 3.90 | 4.13 |
7/1/1987 | 3.89 | 4.34 |
10/1/1987 | 4.08 | 4.21 |
1/1/1988 | 4.24 | 4.20 |
4/1/1988 | 4.24 | 4.39 |
7/1/1988 | 4.42 | 4.55 |
10/1/1988 | 4.48 | 4.65 |
1/1/1989 | 4.57 | 4.73 |
4/1/1989 | 4.44 | 4.77 |
7/1/1989 | 4.29 | 4.66 |
10/1/1989 | 4.29 | 4.27 |
1/1/1990 | 4.49 | 4.03 |
4/1/1990 | 4.72 | 4.10 |
7/1/1990 | 5.24 | 4.08 |
10/1/1990 | 5.18 | 3.90 |
1/1/1991 | 5.35 | 3.78 |
4/1/1991 | 4.96 | 3.79 |
7/1/1991 | 4.56 | 3.72 |
10/1/1991 | 4.35 | 3.52 |
1/1/1992 | 3.79 | 3.41 |
4/1/1992 | 3.75 | 3.46 |
7/1/1992 | 3.44 | 3.43 |
10/1/1992 | 3.41 | 3.26 |
1/1/1993 | 3.40 | 3.17 |
4/1/1993 | 3.37 | 3.26 |
7/1/1993 | 3.19 | 3.25 |
10/1/1993 | 3.08 | 3.03 |
1/1/1994 | 2.86 | 2.94 |
4/1/1994 | 2.71 | 3.13 |
7/1/1994 | 2.86 | 3.28 |
10/1/1994 | 2.71 | 3.37 |
1/1/1995 | 2.91 | 3.41 |
4/1/1995 | 3.03 | 3.36 |
7/1/1995 | 2.95 | 3.24 |
10/1/1995 | 3.01 | 3.00 |
1/1/1996 | 2.84 | 2.84 |
4/1/1996 | 2.62 | 2.84 |
7/1/1996 | 2.60 | 2.85 |
10/1/1996 | 2.55 | 2.89 |
1/1/1997 | 2.45 | 2.91 |
4/1/1997 | 2.49 | 2.88 |
7/1/1997 | 2.28 | 2.79 |
10/1/1997 | 2.21 | 2.59 |
1/1/1998 | 2.24 | 2.45 |
4/1/1998 | 2.16 | 2.42 |
7/1/1998 | 2.33 | 2.37 |
10/1/1998 | 2.31 | 2.26 |
1/1/1999 | 2.15 | 2.24 |
4/1/1999 | 2.06 | 2.38 |
7/1/1999 | 1.99 | 2.45 |
10/1/1999 | 2.00 | 2.38 |
1/1/2000 | 2.22 | 2.37 |
4/1/2000 | 2.37 | 2.45 |
7/1/2000 | 2.51 | 2.49 |
10/1/2000 | 2.55 | 2.47 |
1/1/2001 | 2.62 | 2.46 |
4/1/2001 | 2.60 | 2.45 |
7/1/2001 | 2.62 | 2.38 |
10/1/2001 | 2.68 | 2.21 |
1/1/2002 | 2.50 | 2.11 |
4/1/2002 | 2.40 | 2.16 |
7/1/2002 | 2.24 | 2.18 |
10/1/2002 | 2.04 | 2.13 |
1/1/2003 | 1.82 | 2.04 |
4/1/2003 | 1.48 | 1.87 |
7/1/2003 | 1.35 | 1.80 |
10/1/2003 | 1.16 | 1.94 |
1/1/2004 | 1.31 | 2.05 |
4/1/2004 | 1.76 | 2.07 |
7/1/2004 | 1.79 | 2.06 |
10/1/2004 | 2.14 | 1.97 |
1/1/2005 | 2.28 | 1.95 |
4/1/2005 | 2.12 | 2.08 |
7/1/2005 | 2.03 | 2.11 |
10/1/2005 | 2.08 | 1.95 |
1/1/2006 | 2.08 | 1.93 |
4/1/2006 | 2.43 | 2.19 |
7/1/2006 | 2.78 | 2.43 |
10/1/2006 | 2.63 | 2.60 |
1/1/2007 | 2.59 | 2.66 |
4/1/2007 | 2.26 | 2.50 |
7/1/2007 | 2.10 | 2.45 |
10/1/2007 | 2.28 | 2.64 |
1/1/2008 | 2.36 | 2.77 |
4/1/2008 | 2.31 | 2.79 |
7/1/2008 | 2.44 | 2.49 |
10/1/2008 | 1.98 | 1.56 |
1/1/2009 | 1.74 | 1.07 |
4/1/2009 | 1.81 | 1.47 |
7/1/2009 | 1.47 | 1.75 |
10/1/2009 | 1.74 | 1.79 |
1/1/2010 | 1.33 | 1.78 |
4/1/2010 | 0.95 | 1.65 |
7/1/2010 | 0.89 | 1.57 |
10/1/2010 | 0.64 | 1.56 |
1/1/2011 | 1.10 | 1.61 |
4/1/2011 | 1.44 | 1.79 |
7/1/2011 | 1.88 | 1.92 |
10/1/2011 | 2.15 | 1.96 |
1/1/2012 | 2.21 | 1.98 |
4/1/2012 | 2.23 | 1.97 |
7/1/2012 | 2.00 | 1.96 |
10/1/2012 | 1.93 | 1.92 |
1/1/2013 | 1.91 | 1.94 |
4/1/2013 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
7/1/2013 | 1.73 | 2.16 |
10/1/2013 | 1.71 | 2.02 |
1/1/2014 | 1.59 | 1.93 |
4/1/2014 | 1.88 | 1.97 |
7/1/2014 | 1.76 | 1.96 |
10/1/2014 | 1.71 | 1.83 |
1/1/2015 | 1.67 | 1.80 |
4/1/2015 | 1.76 | 1.97 |
7/1/2015 | 1.84 | 2.07 |
10/1/2015 | 1.97 | 2.02 |
1/1/2016 | 2.19 | 1.99 |
4/1/2016 | 2.16 | 2.03 |
7/1/2016 | 2.20 | 2.09 |
10/1/2016 | 2.16 | 2.20 |
1/1/2017 | 2.11 | 2.28 |
4/1/2017 | 1.78 | 2.27 |
7/1/2017 | 1.68 | 2.25 |
10/1/2017 | 1.75 | 2.23 |
1/1/2018 | 1.89 | 2.22 |
4/1/2018 | 2.20 | 2.21 |
7/1/2018 | 2.23 | 2.20 |
10/1/2018 | 2.17 | 2.17 |
1/1/2019 | 2.07 | 2.10 |
4/1/2019 | 2.05 | 1.94 |
7/1/2019 | 2.28 | 1.86 |
10/1/2019 | 2.27 | 1.95 |
Panel B: Long-run inflation expectations (percent)
Make Full Screen
Date | HLW | BCS |
---|---|---|
1/1/1960 | 1.92 | |
4/1/1960 | 2.21 | |
7/1/1960 | 2.05 | |
10/1/1960 | 1.75 | |
1/1/1961 | 0.73 | |
4/1/1961 | 0.87 | 1.68 |
7/1/1961 | 0.87 | 1.68 |
10/1/1961 | 1.44 | 1.68 |
1/1/1962 | 1.29 | 1.68 |
4/1/1962 | 1.43 | 1.68 |
7/1/1962 | 1.29 | 1.68 |
10/1/1962 | 1.28 | 1.68 |
1/1/1963 | 1.28 | 1.68 |
4/1/1963 | 1.27 | 1.68 |
7/1/1963 | 0.99 | 1.68 |
10/1/1963 | 1.13 | 1.68 |
1/1/1964 | 1.40 | 1.68 |
4/1/1964 | 1.82 | 1.68 |
7/1/1964 | 1.95 | 1.68 |
10/1/1964 | 1.53 | 1.68 |
1/1/1965 | 1.10 | 1.68 |
4/1/1965 | 1.10 | 1.68 |
7/1/1965 | 1.51 | 1.68 |
10/1/1965 | 1.64 | 1.68 |
1/1/1966 | 1.09 | 1.68 |
4/1/1966 | 1.22 | 1.68 |
7/1/1966 | 1.48 | 1.68 |
10/1/1966 | 2.69 | 1.68 |
1/1/1967 | 3.20 | 1.68 |
4/1/1967 | 3.85 | 1.68 |
7/1/1967 | 3.29 | 1.68 |
10/1/1967 | 3.13 | 1.68 |
1/1/1968 | 3.22 | 1.68 |
4/1/1968 | 3.84 | 1.68 |
7/1/1968 | 4.43 | 2.52 |
10/1/1968 | 4.39 | 2.52 |
1/1/1969 | 4.82 | 2.52 |
4/1/1969 | 5.13 | 2.62 |
7/1/1969 | 5.55 | 2.68 |
10/1/1969 | 5.84 | 2.68 |
1/1/1970 | 5.74 | 2.68 |
4/1/1970 | 5.79 | 2.68 |
7/1/1970 | 5.71 | 2.84 |
10/1/1970 | 6.29 | 3.1 |
1/1/1971 | 6.19 | 3.1 |
4/1/1971 | 6.31 | 3.1 |
7/1/1971 | 5.16 | 3.1 |
10/1/1971 | 4.79 | 3.49 |
1/1/1972 | 3.78 | 3.49 |
4/1/1972 | 3.23 | 3.49 |
7/1/1972 | 2.99 | 3.49 |
10/1/1972 | 2.87 | 3.92 |
1/1/1973 | 3.15 | 3.92 |
4/1/1973 | 2.73 | 3.92 |
7/1/1973 | 2.71 | 3.92 |
10/1/1973 | 3.08 | 3.92 |
1/1/1974 | 3.73 | 4.21 |
4/1/1974 | 4.97 | 4.89 |
7/1/1974 | 5.67 | 5.07 |
10/1/1974 | 7.75 | 5.07 |
1/1/1975 | 10.01 | 5.07 |
4/1/1975 | 11.79 | 5.1 |
7/1/1975 | 11.16 | 5.14 |
10/1/1975 | 8.76 | 5.14 |
1/1/1976 | 6.63 | 4.88 |
4/1/1976 | 6.11 | 4.4 |
7/1/1976 | 6.48 | 4.5 |
10/1/1976 | 6.56 | 4.5 |
1/1/1977 | 6.44 | 4.5 |
4/1/1977 | 5.80 | 4.62 |
7/1/1977 | 6.17 | 4.85 |
10/1/1977 | 6.16 | 4.85 |
1/1/1978 | 6.21 | 5.04 |
4/1/1978 | 5.83 | 5.42 |
7/1/1978 | 6.02 | 5.42 |
10/1/1978 | 6.84 | 5.66 |
1/1/1979 | 7.88 | 6.15 |
4/1/1979 | 8.48 | 6.15 |
7/1/1979 | 8.83 | 6.72 |
10/1/1979 | 9.10 | 6.72 |
1/1/1980 | 9.56 | 6.72 |
4/1/1980 | 10.50 | 6.72 |
7/1/1980 | 12.23 | 6.72 |
10/1/1980 | 13.22 | 7.05 |
1/1/1981 | 11.20 | 7.72 |
4/1/1981 | 10.46 | 7.37 |
7/1/1981 | 9.16 | 7.12 |
10/1/1981 | 10.10 | 7.23 |
1/1/1982 | 10.42 | 6.66 |
4/1/1982 | 9.92 | 6.26 |
7/1/1982 | 8.62 | 6.27 |
10/1/1982 | 6.65 | 6.1 |
1/1/1983 | 6.28 | 5.82 |
4/1/1983 | 5.13 | 6.08 |
7/1/1983 | 3.49 | 6.13 |
10/1/1983 | 2.59 | 6.15 |
1/1/1984 | 3.78 | 6.08 |
4/1/1984 | 4.68 | 6 |
7/1/1984 | 5.20 | 5.55 |
10/1/1984 | 5.19 | 5.2 |
1/1/1985 | 5.11 | 4.85 |
4/1/1985 | 4.63 | 4.98 |
7/1/1985 | 4.45 | 5.2 |
10/1/1985 | 4.20 | 5.11 |
1/1/1986 | 4.03 | 4.78 |
4/1/1986 | 4.11 | 4.75 |
7/1/1986 | 4.14 | 4.62 |
10/1/1986 | 4.07 | 4.61 |
1/1/1987 | 3.79 | 4.78 |
4/1/1987 | 3.63 | 4.8 |
7/1/1987 | 3.61 | 4.98 |
10/1/1987 | 3.96 | 4.64 |
1/1/1988 | 3.91 | 4.74 |
4/1/1988 | 4.36 | 4.55 |
7/1/1988 | 4.06 | 4.42 |
10/1/1988 | 4.42 | 4.17 |
1/1/1989 | 4.36 | 4.19 |
4/1/1989 | 4.68 | 4.24 |
7/1/1989 | 4.49 | 4.03 |
10/1/1989 | 4.44 | 3.81 |
1/1/1990 | 4.11 | 3.56 |
4/1/1990 | 4.31 | 3.77 |
7/1/1990 | 4.57 | 3.89 |
10/1/1990 | 5.02 | 3.966666667 |
1/1/1991 | 5.38 | 3.8 |
4/1/1991 | 5.22 | 3.8 |
7/1/1991 | 5.40 | 3.8 |
10/1/1991 | 4.65 | 3.8 |
1/1/1992 | 4.55 | 3.8 |
4/1/1992 | 3.88 | 3.8 |
7/1/1992 | 3.85 | 3.8 |
10/1/1992 | 3.57 | 3.733333333 |
1/1/1993 | 3.35 | 3.7 |
4/1/1993 | 3.38 | 3.7 |
7/1/1993 | 3.38 | 3.7 |
10/1/1993 | 3.47 | 3.7 |
1/1/1994 | 3.06 | 3.7 |
4/1/1994 | 2.95 | 3.566666667 |
7/1/1994 | 2.70 | 3.5 |
10/1/1994 | 2.82 | 3.5 |
1/1/1995 | 2.77 | 3.5 |
4/1/1995 | 2.75 | 3.3 |
7/1/1995 | 2.96 | 3.2 |
10/1/1995 | 3.05 | 3.066666667 |
1/1/1996 | 3.08 | 3 |
4/1/1996 | 2.89 | 3 |
7/1/1996 | 2.71 | 3 |
10/1/1996 | 2.61 | 2.866666667 |
1/1/1997 | 2.54 | 2.8 |
4/1/1997 | 2.50 | 2.866666667 |
7/1/1997 | 2.48 | 2.9 |
10/1/1997 | 2.47 | 2.9 |
1/1/1998 | 2.19 | 2.9 |
4/1/1998 | 2.18 | 2.766666667 |
7/1/1998 | 2.14 | 2.7 |
10/1/1998 | 2.31 | 2.633333333 |
1/1/1999 | 2.34 | 2.6 |
4/1/1999 | 2.28 | 2.533333333 |
7/1/1999 | 2.12 | 2.5 |
10/1/1999 | 1.96 | 2.566666667 |
1/1/2000 | 1.91 | 2.6 |
4/1/2000 | 2.08 | 2.666666667 |
7/1/2000 | 2.32 | 2.7 |
10/1/2000 | 2.46 | 2.633333333 |
1/1/2001 | 2.59 | 2.6 |
4/1/2001 | 2.52 | 2.533333333 |
7/1/2001 | 2.65 | 2.5 |
10/1/2001 | 2.59 | 2.5 |
1/1/2002 | 2.69 | 2.5 |
4/1/2002 | 2.60 | 2.5 |
7/1/2002 | 2.52 | 2.5 |
10/1/2002 | 2.29 | 2.433333333 |
1/1/2003 | 2.11 | 2.4 |
4/1/2003 | 1.99 | 2.333333333 |
7/1/2003 | 1.74 | 2.3 |
10/1/2003 | 1.28 | 2.3 |
1/1/2004 | 1.20 | 2.3 |
4/1/2004 | 1.11 | 2.433333333 |
7/1/2004 | 1.51 | 2.5 |
10/1/2004 | 1.83 | 2.433333333 |
1/1/2005 | 2.04 | 2.4 |
4/1/2005 | 2.21 | 2.4 |
7/1/2005 | 2.20 | 2.4 |
10/1/2005 | 2.26 | 2.4 |
1/1/2006 | 1.89 | 2.4 |
4/1/2006 | 1.94 | 2.333333333 |
7/1/2006 | 2.16 | 2.3 |
10/1/2006 | 2.80 | 2.166666667 |
1/1/2007 | 2.82 | 2.1 |
4/1/2007 | 2.68 | 2.166666667 |
7/1/2007 | 2.37 | 2.2 |
10/1/2007 | 2.11 | 2.2 |
1/1/2008 | 2.11 | 2.2 |
4/1/2008 | 2.27 | 2.133333333 |
7/1/2008 | 2.50 | 2.1 |
10/1/2008 | 2.40 | 2.366666667 |
1/1/2009 | 2.31 | 2.5 |
4/1/2009 | 1.76 | 2.433333333 |
7/1/2009 | 1.74 | 2.4 |
10/1/2009 | 1.56 | 2.333333333 |
1/1/2010 | 1.63 | 2.3 |
4/1/2010 | 1.75 | 2.3 |
7/1/2010 | 1.10 | 2.3 |
10/1/2010 | 0.87 | 2.233333333 |
1/1/2011 | 0.51 | 2.2 |
4/1/2011 | 0.84 | 2.2 |
7/1/2011 | 1.30 | 2.2 |
10/1/2011 | 1.60 | 2.266666667 |
1/1/2012 | 2.16 | 2.3 |
4/1/2012 | 2.24 | 2.366666667 |
7/1/2012 | 2.32 | 2.4 |
10/1/2012 | 2.06 | 2.266666667 |
1/1/2013 | 1.95 | 2.2 |
4/1/2013 | 1.87 | 2.266666667 |
7/1/2013 | 1.89 | 2.3 |
10/1/2013 | 1.60 | 2.233333333 |
1/1/2014 | 1.68 | 2.2 |
4/1/2014 | 1.61 | 2.2 |
7/1/2014 | 1.82 | 2.2 |
10/1/2014 | 1.80 | 2.2 |
1/1/2015 | 1.75 | 2.2 |
4/1/2015 | 1.77 | 2.266666667 |
7/1/2015 | 1.55 | 2.3 |
10/1/2015 | 1.80 | 2.3 |
1/1/2016 | 1.93 | 2.3 |
4/1/2016 | 2.17 | 2.233333333 |
7/1/2016 | 2.11 | 2.2 |
10/1/2016 | 2.22 | 2.266666667 |
1/1/2017 | 2.22 | 2.3 |
4/1/2017 | 2.13 | 2.233333333 |
7/1/2017 | 2.04 | 2.2 |
10/1/2017 | 1.66 | 2.2 |
1/1/2018 | 1.58 | 2.2 |
4/1/2018 | 1.65 | 2.2 |
7/1/2018 | 2.20 | 2.2 |
10/1/2018 | 2.36 | 2.133333333 |
1/1/2019 | 2.22 | 2.1 |
4/1/2019 | 2.02 | 2.1 |
7/1/2019 | 2.03 | 2.1 |
10/1/2019 | 2.12 | 2.1 |
Figure 3. Real rates and inflation gaps.
Panel A: Ex-ante real short rate (percent)
Make Full Screen
Date | HLW | Survey-based, Livingston |
---|---|---|
1/1/1960 | 2.05 | 3.20 |
4/1/1960 | 2.26 | 3.32 |
7/1/1960 | 2.12 | 2.78 |
10/1/1960 | 2.00 | 2.50 |
1/1/1961 | 2.21 | 2.41 |
4/1/1961 | 2.11 | 2.21 |
7/1/1961 | 1.58 | 2.07 |
10/1/1961 | 1.80 | 2.04 |
1/1/1962 | 1.80 | 2.02 |
4/1/1962 | 1.69 | 2.02 |
7/1/1962 | 1.81 | 2.03 |
10/1/1962 | 1.92 | 2.03 |
1/1/1963 | 1.92 | 2.04 |
4/1/1963 | 1.93 | 2.04 |
7/1/1963 | 2.26 | 2.47 |
10/1/1963 | 2.04 | 2.57 |
1/1/1964 | 1.73 | 2.53 |
4/1/1964 | 2.05 | 2.42 |
7/1/1964 | 2.26 | 2.36 |
10/1/1964 | 2.49 | 2.62 |
1/1/1965 | 2.88 | 2.97 |
4/1/1965 | 2.78 | 3.20 |
7/1/1965 | 2.89 | 3.16 |
10/1/1965 | 2.99 | 2.92 |
1/1/1966 | 3.31 | 3.05 |
4/1/1966 | 2.99 | 3.30 |
7/1/1966 | 2.73 | 3.68 |
10/1/1966 | 2.41 | 3.67 |
1/1/1967 | 1.53 | 2.74 |
4/1/1967 | 0.89 | 1.80 |
7/1/1967 | 0.62 | 1.58 |
10/1/1967 | 0.86 | 1.67 |
1/1/1968 | 0.88 | 2.15 |
4/1/1968 | 1.90 | 3.37 |
7/1/1968 | 1.54 | 3.30 |
10/1/1968 | 1.11 | 3.31 |
1/1/1969 | 1.69 | 3.93 |
4/1/1969 | 3.06 | 5.56 |
7/1/1969 | 3.77 | 6.09 |
10/1/1969 | 3.80 | 6.06 |
1/1/1970 | 3.20 | 5.56 |
4/1/1970 | 2.22 | 4.54 |
7/1/1970 | 1.02 | 3.11 |
10/1/1970 | -0.45 | 1.96 |
1/1/1971 | -1.69 | 0.15 |
4/1/1971 | -0.16 | 0.73 |
7/1/1971 | 1.26 | 1.76 |
10/1/1971 | 1.56 | 1.51 |
1/1/1972 | 0.39 | 0.49 |
4/1/1972 | 1.45 | 1.01 |
7/1/1972 | 2.02 | 1.30 |
10/1/1972 | 2.46 | 1.80 |
1/1/1973 | 4.06 | 3.24 |
4/1/1973 | 5.18 | 4.33 |
7/1/1973 | 7.97 | 6.99 |
10/1/1973 | 6.20 | 5.79 |
1/1/1974 | 4.63 | 4.38 |
4/1/1974 | 5.25 | 5.64 |
7/1/1974 | 3.87 | 5.99 |
10/1/1974 | -0.47 | 2.84 |
1/1/1975 | -4.34 | -0.26 |
4/1/1975 | -4.30 | -0.45 |
7/1/1975 | -1.42 | 0.80 |
10/1/1975 | -1.04 | -0.16 |
1/1/1976 | -1.42 | -0.86 |
4/1/1976 | -0.81 | -0.38 |
7/1/1976 | -1.04 | -0.15 |
10/1/1976 | -1.14 | -0.36 |
1/1/1977 | -1.15 | -0.56 |
4/1/1977 | -0.87 | -0.39 |
7/1/1977 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
10/1/1977 | 0.82 | 0.66 |
1/1/1978 | 0.96 | 0.78 |
4/1/1978 | 1.12 | 1.13 |
7/1/1978 | 1.29 | 1.78 |
10/1/1978 | 2.09 | 3.14 |
1/1/1979 | 2.10 | 3.27 |
4/1/1979 | 1.91 | 2.69 |
7/1/1979 | 2.36 | 2.93 |
10/1/1979 | 4.59 | 5.51 |
1/1/1980 | 4.99 | 6.93 |
4/1/1980 | 1.24 | 4.08 |
7/1/1980 | -0.92 | 0.72 |
10/1/1980 | 5.96 | 7.41 |
1/1/1981 | 8.16 | 8.41 |
4/1/1981 | 10.70 | 10.78 |
7/1/1981 | 8.64 | 11.33 |
10/1/1981 | 5.02 | 7.09 |
1/1/1982 | 6.84 | 8.44 |
4/1/1982 | 7.55 | 9.66 |
7/1/1982 | 5.16 | 6.31 |
10/1/1982 | 4.82 | 4.70 |
1/1/1983 | 4.72 | 4.25 |
4/1/1983 | 5.73 | 4.50 |
7/1/1983 | 6.89 | 5.22 |
10/1/1983 | 5.91 | 4.94 |
1/1/1984 | 5.44 | 5.02 |
4/1/1984 | 6.17 | 5.82 |
7/1/1984 | 7.11 | 6.85 |
10/1/1984 | 5.00 | 5.03 |
1/1/1985 | 4.41 | 4.55 |
4/1/1985 | 3.98 | 3.95 |
7/1/1985 | 4.31 | 4.04 |
10/1/1985 | 4.39 | 4.56 |
1/1/1986 | 4.10 | 4.48 |
4/1/1986 | 3.33 | 3.60 |
7/1/1986 | 2.51 | 2.89 |
10/1/1986 | 2.76 | 2.94 |
1/1/1987 | 2.98 | 2.76 |
4/1/1987 | 3.08 | 2.85 |
7/1/1987 | 3.29 | 2.84 |
10/1/1987 | 3.19 | 3.05 |
1/1/1988 | 2.75 | 2.80 |
4/1/1988 | 3.28 | 3.13 |
7/1/1988 | 4.01 | 3.87 |
10/1/1988 | 4.49 | 4.31 |
1/1/1989 | 5.48 | 5.32 |
4/1/1989 | 5.93 | 5.60 |
7/1/1989 | 5.36 | 4.99 |
10/1/1989 | 4.84 | 4.86 |
1/1/1990 | 4.23 | 4.69 |
4/1/1990 | 4.00 | 4.62 |
7/1/1990 | 3.39 | 4.54 |
10/1/1990 | 2.99 | 4.27 |
1/1/1991 | 1.39 | 2.96 |
4/1/1991 | 1.17 | 2.34 |
7/1/1991 | 1.33 | 2.17 |
10/1/1991 | 0.66 | 1.48 |
1/1/1992 | 0.38 | 0.76 |
4/1/1992 | 0.15 | 0.44 |
7/1/1992 | -0.08 | -0.07 |
10/1/1992 | -0.28 | -0.13 |
1/1/1993 | -0.27 | -0.04 |
4/1/1993 | -0.28 | -0.17 |
7/1/1993 | -0.04 | -0.10 |
10/1/1993 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
1/1/1994 | 0.45 | 0.37 |
4/1/1994 | 1.37 | 0.95 |
7/1/1994 | 1.79 | 1.37 |
10/1/1994 | 2.66 | 2.01 |
1/1/1995 | 3.16 | 2.65 |
4/1/1995 | 3.26 | 2.94 |
7/1/1995 | 3.10 | 2.81 |
10/1/1995 | 2.96 | 2.97 |
1/1/1996 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
4/1/1996 | 2.84 | 2.62 |
7/1/1996 | 2.92 | 2.67 |
10/1/1996 | 2.95 | 2.61 |
1/1/1997 | 3.05 | 2.59 |
4/1/1997 | 3.26 | 2.88 |
7/1/1997 | 3.49 | 2.98 |
10/1/1997 | 3.53 | 3.15 |
1/1/1998 | 3.52 | 3.31 |
4/1/1998 | 3.57 | 3.31 |
7/1/1998 | 3.44 | 3.41 |
10/1/1998 | 2.74 | 2.79 |
1/1/1999 | 2.77 | 2.68 |
4/1/1999 | 2.87 | 2.55 |
7/1/1999 | 3.31 | 2.85 |
10/1/1999 | 3.53 | 3.14 |
1/1/2000 | 3.71 | 3.56 |
4/1/2000 | 4.20 | 4.12 |
7/1/2000 | 4.33 | 4.34 |
10/1/2000 | 4.24 | 4.31 |
1/1/2001 | 3.22 | 3.38 |
4/1/2001 | 1.88 | 2.04 |
7/1/2001 | 0.99 | 1.23 |
10/1/2001 | -0.49 | -0.02 |
1/1/2002 | -0.73 | -0.33 |
4/1/2002 | -0.61 | -0.37 |
7/1/2002 | -0.46 | -0.40 |
10/1/2002 | -0.56 | -0.65 |
1/1/2003 | -0.54 | -0.77 |
4/1/2003 | -0.21 | -0.59 |
7/1/2003 | -0.32 | -0.76 |
10/1/2003 | -0.14 | -0.93 |
1/1/2004 | -0.29 | -1.03 |
4/1/2004 | -0.74 | -1.04 |
7/1/2004 | -0.33 | -0.60 |
10/1/2004 | -0.14 | 0.03 |
1/1/2005 | 0.25 | 0.58 |
4/1/2005 | 0.91 | 0.95 |
7/1/2005 | 1.54 | 1.46 |
10/1/2005 | 2.04 | 2.17 |
1/1/2006 | 2.54 | 2.69 |
4/1/2006 | 2.67 | 2.91 |
7/1/2006 | 2.69 | 3.04 |
10/1/2006 | 2.83 | 2.87 |
1/1/2007 | 2.88 | 2.82 |
4/1/2007 | 3.20 | 2.97 |
7/1/2007 | 3.18 | 2.83 |
10/1/2007 | 2.38 | 2.03 |
1/1/2008 | 0.92 | 0.51 |
4/1/2008 | -0.17 | -0.65 |
7/1/2008 | -0.45 | -0.50 |
10/1/2008 | -1.46 | -1.04 |
1/1/2009 | -1.55 | -0.89 |
4/1/2009 | -1.63 | -1.28 |
7/1/2009 | -1.31 | -1.59 |
10/1/2009 | -1.61 | -1.67 |
1/1/2010 | -1.20 | -1.64 |
4/1/2010 | -0.75 | -1.46 |
7/1/2010 | -0.70 | -1.38 |
10/1/2010 | -0.45 | -1.37 |
1/1/2011 | -0.94 | -1.45 |
4/1/2011 | -1.35 | -1.70 |
7/1/2011 | -1.79 | -1.84 |
10/1/2011 | -2.08 | -1.88 |
1/1/2012 | -2.10 | -1.87 |
4/1/2012 | -2.07 | -1.82 |
7/1/2012 | -1.85 | -1.81 |
10/1/2012 | -1.77 | -1.75 |
1/1/2013 | -1.76 | -1.80 |
4/1/2013 | -1.53 | -1.99 |
7/1/2013 | -1.65 | -2.08 |
10/1/2013 | -1.62 | -1.93 |
1/1/2014 | -1.52 | -1.86 |
4/1/2014 | -1.78 | -1.88 |
7/1/2014 | -1.67 | -1.87 |
10/1/2014 | -1.61 | -1.73 |
1/1/2015 | -1.56 | -1.69 |
4/1/2015 | -1.64 | -1.85 |
7/1/2015 | -1.70 | -1.93 |
10/1/2015 | -1.81 | -1.85 |
1/1/2016 | -1.82 | -1.63 |
4/1/2016 | -1.78 | -1.65 |
7/1/2016 | -1.79 | -1.69 |
10/1/2016 | -1.70 | -1.75 |
1/1/2017 | -1.40 | -1.56 |
4/1/2017 | -0.81 | -1.30 |
7/1/2017 | -0.50 | -1.08 |
10/1/2017 | -0.53 | -1.01 |
1/1/2018 | -0.41 | -0.74 |
4/1/2018 | -0.42 | -0.44 |
7/1/2018 | -0.27 | -0.23 |
10/1/2018 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
1/1/2019 | 0.40 | 0.37 |
4/1/2019 | 0.41 | 0.52 |
7/1/2019 | -0.03 | 0.39 |
10/1/2019 | -0.59 | -0.27 |
Panel B: Inflation gap (percent)
Make Full Screen
Date | HLW | Survey-based, BCS |
---|---|---|
1/1/1960 | -0.19 | |
4/1/1960 | -1.33 | |
7/1/1960 | -2.48 | |
10/1/1960 | 0.41 | |
1/1/1961 | 0.16 | |
4/1/1961 | 0.40 | -0.40 |
7/1/1961 | 0.85 | 0.04 |
10/1/1961 | -0.16 | -0.39 |
1/1/1962 | -0.42 | -0.81 |
4/1/1962 | 0.27 | 0.01 |
7/1/1962 | -0.03 | -0.42 |
10/1/1962 | -0.43 | -0.82 |
1/1/1963 | -0.44 | -0.84 |
4/1/1963 | 0.41 | 0.00 |
7/1/1963 | 0.69 | 0.00 |
10/1/1963 | 0.97 | 0.42 |
1/1/1964 | 0.67 | 0.39 |
4/1/1964 | -1.41 | -1.27 |
7/1/1964 | -1.12 | -0.85 |
10/1/1964 | 0.53 | 0.37 |
1/1/1965 | 0.54 | -0.04 |
4/1/1965 | 0.13 | -0.45 |
7/1/1965 | -1.11 | -1.28 |
10/1/1965 | 0.40 | 0.36 |
1/1/1966 | 0.92 | 0.33 |
4/1/1966 | 2.80 | 2.35 |
7/1/1966 | 2.08 | 1.88 |
10/1/1966 | 1.26 | 2.27 |
1/1/1967 | -0.85 | 0.67 |
4/1/1967 | -0.76 | 1.41 |
7/1/1967 | 0.92 | 2.53 |
10/1/1967 | 1.07 | 2.53 |
1/1/1968 | 1.66 | 3.20 |
4/1/1968 | 0.26 | 2.42 |
7/1/1968 | 1.06 | 2.98 |
10/1/1968 | 1.42 | 3.29 |
1/1/1969 | 0.53 | 2.83 |
4/1/1969 | 1.21 | 3.72 |
7/1/1969 | -0.02 | 2.86 |
10/1/1969 | -0.33 | 2.82 |
1/1/1970 | 0.34 | 3.40 |
4/1/1970 | 1.49 | 4.60 |
7/1/1970 | -0.49 | 2.37 |
10/1/1970 | 0.17 | 3.35 |
1/1/1971 | -2.38 | 0.71 |
4/1/1971 | -2.21 | 1.00 |
7/1/1971 | -1.73 | 0.32 |
10/1/1971 | -2.62 | -1.32 |
1/1/1972 | -0.40 | -0.12 |
4/1/1972 | -0.18 | -0.43 |
7/1/1972 | 0.03 | -0.47 |
10/1/1972 | -0.75 | -1.80 |
1/1/1973 | -0.17 | -0.94 |
4/1/1973 | 1.42 | 0.23 |
7/1/1973 | 1.37 | 0.15 |
10/1/1973 | 3.59 | 2.76 |
1/1/1974 | 2.53 | 2.06 |
4/1/1974 | 5.34 | 5.41 |
7/1/1974 | 7.80 | 8.40 |
10/1/1974 | 3.83 | 6.51 |
1/1/1975 | -1.60 | 3.34 |
4/1/1975 | -5.49 | 1.20 |
7/1/1975 | -5.98 | 0.04 |
10/1/1975 | -1.92 | 1.70 |
1/1/1976 | 0.80 | 2.55 |
4/1/1976 | -0.68 | 1.02 |
7/1/1976 | -0.01 | 1.98 |
10/1/1976 | -1.05 | 1.01 |
1/1/1977 | 0.08 | 2.03 |
4/1/1977 | 0.63 | 1.81 |
7/1/1977 | -0.51 | 0.81 |
10/1/1977 | -0.75 | 0.56 |
1/1/1978 | 0.80 | 1.96 |
4/1/1978 | 2.27 | 2.69 |
7/1/1978 | 2.50 | 3.10 |
10/1/1978 | 1.97 | 3.15 |
1/1/1979 | 1.28 | 3.01 |
4/1/1979 | 0.86 | 3.19 |
7/1/1979 | 1.36 | 3.47 |
10/1/1979 | 2.87 | 5.26 |
1/1/1980 | 4.97 | 7.81 |
4/1/1980 | 2.66 | 6.45 |
7/1/1980 | -6.32 | -0.81 |
10/1/1980 | -0.93 | 5.25 |
1/1/1981 | -1.94 | 1.54 |
4/1/1981 | -1.71 | 1.38 |
7/1/1981 | 4.09 | 6.12 |
10/1/1981 | -2.34 | 0.53 |
1/1/1982 | -5.57 | -1.81 |
4/1/1982 | -2.57 | 1.09 |
7/1/1982 | -1.97 | 0.37 |
10/1/1982 | -5.27 | -4.72 |
1/1/1983 | -3.83 | -3.37 |
4/1/1983 | -1.19 | -2.14 |
7/1/1983 | 1.45 | -1.19 |
10/1/1983 | 2.58 | -0.98 |
1/1/1984 | 1.71 | -0.59 |
4/1/1984 | 0.21 | -1.11 |
7/1/1984 | -0.25 | -0.60 |
10/1/1984 | -1.14 | -1.15 |
1/1/1985 | -0.76 | -0.50 |
4/1/1985 | -0.43 | -0.78 |
7/1/1985 | -0.92 | -1.67 |
10/1/1985 | 0.40 | -0.51 |
1/1/1986 | 0.28 | -0.47 |
4/1/1986 | -0.80 | -1.44 |
7/1/1986 | -0.40 | -0.88 |
10/1/1986 | -0.22 | -0.76 |
1/1/1987 | -0.56 | -1.55 |
4/1/1987 | 1.15 | -0.01 |
7/1/1987 | 0.10 | -1.28 |
10/1/1987 | 0.64 | -0.05 |
1/1/1988 | -0.03 | -0.87 |
4/1/1988 | 0.44 | 0.25 |
7/1/1988 | 0.35 | -0.01 |
10/1/1988 | 0.40 | 0.66 |
1/1/1989 | -0.13 | 0.04 |
4/1/1989 | -0.40 | 0.04 |
7/1/1989 | -0.67 | -0.22 |
10/1/1989 | 0.38 | 1.01 |
1/1/1990 | 0.95 | 1.50 |
4/1/1990 | 0.87 | 1.41 |
7/1/1990 | 1.32 | 2.00 |
10/1/1990 | -0.43 | 0.62 |
1/1/1991 | 0.36 | 1.94 |
4/1/1991 | -1.60 | -0.19 |
7/1/1991 | -1.10 | 0.50 |
10/1/1991 | -0.91 | -0.07 |
1/1/1992 | -1.05 | -0.30 |
4/1/1992 | -0.42 | -0.33 |
7/1/1992 | -0.78 | -0.73 |
10/1/1992 | 0.03 | -0.14 |
1/1/1993 | 0.12 | -0.24 |
4/1/1993 | -0.02 | -0.34 |
7/1/1993 | -1.02 | -1.34 |
10/1/1993 | -0.34 | -0.56 |
1/1/1994 | -0.46 | -1.10 |
4/1/1994 | -0.21 | -0.83 |
7/1/1994 | 0.27 | -0.53 |
10/1/1994 | -0.28 | -0.95 |
1/1/1995 | 0.60 | -0.14 |
4/1/1995 | 0.49 | -0.06 |
7/1/1995 | -0.32 | -0.56 |
10/1/1995 | -0.25 | -0.27 |
1/1/1996 | -0.39 | -0.31 |
4/1/1996 | -0.55 | -0.65 |
7/1/1996 | -0.14 | -0.43 |
10/1/1996 | -0.04 | -0.30 |
1/1/1997 | -0.23 | -0.49 |
4/1/1997 | 0.04 | -0.34 |
7/1/1997 | -0.76 | -1.18 |
10/1/1997 | -0.19 | -0.62 |
1/1/1998 | 0.22 | -0.49 |
4/1/1998 | 0.07 | -0.52 |
7/1/1998 | 0.24 | -0.32 |
10/1/1998 | -0.08 | -0.41 |
1/1/1999 | -0.59 | -0.85 |
4/1/1999 | -0.39 | -0.64 |
7/1/1999 | -0.02 | -0.40 |
10/1/1999 | 0.30 | -0.31 |
1/1/2000 | 0.70 | 0.02 |
4/1/2000 | 0.43 | -0.16 |
7/1/2000 | 0.31 | -0.06 |
10/1/2000 | -0.04 | -0.21 |
1/1/2001 | 0.31 | 0.30 |
4/1/2001 | -0.07 | -0.08 |
7/1/2001 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
10/1/2001 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
1/1/2002 | -0.50 | -0.31 |
4/1/2002 | -0.55 | -0.45 |
7/1/2002 | -0.42 | -0.41 |
10/1/2002 | -0.47 | -0.62 |
1/1/2003 | -0.79 | -1.08 |
4/1/2003 | -1.29 | -1.64 |
7/1/2003 | -0.16 | -0.72 |
10/1/2003 | -0.24 | -1.26 |
1/1/2004 | 0.72 | -0.38 |
4/1/2004 | 1.41 | 0.08 |
7/1/2004 | 0.17 | -0.81 |
10/1/2004 | 0.61 | 0.00 |
1/1/2005 | 0.45 | 0.09 |
4/1/2005 | -0.35 | -0.54 |
7/1/2005 | -0.88 | -1.08 |
10/1/2005 | 0.38 | 0.25 |
1/1/2006 | 0.61 | 0.10 |
4/1/2006 | 1.31 | 0.92 |
7/1/2006 | 0.55 | 0.41 |
10/1/2006 | -0.73 | -0.10 |
1/1/2007 | -0.49 | 0.23 |
4/1/2007 | -0.73 | -0.22 |
7/1/2007 | -0.32 | -0.15 |
10/1/2007 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
1/1/2008 | 0.54 | 0.45 |
4/1/2008 | -0.54 | -0.40 |
7/1/2008 | 0.06 | 0.46 |
10/1/2008 | -1.41 | -1.38 |
1/1/2009 | -0.63 | -0.82 |
4/1/2009 | 0.28 | -0.40 |
7/1/2009 | -0.56 | -1.22 |
10/1/2009 | 0.48 | -0.29 |
1/1/2010 | -1.57 | -2.24 |
4/1/2010 | -1.25 | -1.80 |
7/1/2010 | -0.13 | -1.34 |
10/1/2010 | 0.18 | -1.19 |
1/1/2011 | 1.37 | -0.32 |
4/1/2011 | 1.03 | -0.33 |
7/1/2011 | 1.42 | 0.52 |
10/1/2011 | 0.54 | -0.13 |
1/1/2012 | -0.06 | -0.20 |
4/1/2012 | -0.28 | -0.41 |
7/1/2012 | -0.52 | -0.60 |
10/1/2012 | -0.20 | -0.40 |
1/1/2013 | 0.07 | -0.18 |
4/1/2013 | -0.96 | -1.36 |
7/1/2013 | 0.23 | -0.17 |
10/1/2013 | 0.18 | -0.45 |
1/1/2014 | -0.14 | -0.65 |
4/1/2014 | 0.46 | -0.14 |
7/1/2014 | -0.17 | -0.56 |
10/1/2014 | -0.20 | -0.61 |
1/1/2015 | -0.35 | -0.80 |
4/1/2015 | 0.64 | 0.14 |
7/1/2015 | 0.43 | -0.33 |
10/1/2015 | 0.32 | -0.18 |
1/1/2016 | 0.32 | -0.05 |
4/1/2016 | 0.14 | 0.07 |
7/1/2016 | 0.00 | -0.09 |
10/1/2016 | -0.26 | -0.30 |
1/1/2017 | -0.17 | -0.25 |
4/1/2017 | -1.15 | -1.26 |
7/1/2017 | -0.33 | -0.49 |
10/1/2017 | 0.61 | 0.08 |
1/1/2018 | 1.03 | 0.41 |
4/1/2018 | 0.54 | -0.01 |
7/1/2018 | -0.34 | -0.34 |
10/1/2018 | -0.35 | -0.12 |
1/1/2019 | -0.01 | 0.11 |
4/1/2019 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
7/1/2019 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
10/1/2019 | -0.16 | -0.14 |
Figure 4. Estimates of natural rate of interest and output gaps using different measures of inflation expectations.
Panel A: Natural rate of interest (percent)
Make Full Screen
Date | HLW-HLW | HLW-Liv | BCS-HLW | BCS_Liv |
---|---|---|---|---|
1/1/1961 | 5.28 | 5.20 | ||
4/1/1961 | 5.78 | 5.52 | ||
7/1/1961 | 5.68 | 5.36 | ||
10/1/1961 | 5.51 | 5.22 | ||
1/1/1962 | 5.23 | 5.02 | ||
4/1/1962 | 4.53 | 4.46 | 3.81 | 3.58 |
7/1/1962 | 4.37 | 4.34 | 3.64 | 3.53 |
10/1/1962 | 3.93 | 3.94 | 2.76 | 2.77 |
1/1/1963 | 3.93 | 3.93 | 2.94 | 3.00 |
4/1/1963 | 3.91 | 3.91 | 2.95 | 3.05 |
7/1/1963 | 4.21 | 4.19 | 3.67 | 3.68 |
10/1/1963 | 3.99 | 4.00 | 3.26 | 3.34 |
1/1/1964 | 4.25 | 4.24 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
4/1/1964 | 4.20 | 4.18 | 3.69 | 3.75 |
7/1/1964 | 4.28 | 4.26 | 3.82 | 3.89 |
10/1/1964 | 4.07 | 4.08 | 3.45 | 3.57 |
1/1/1965 | 4.38 | 4.36 | 3.96 | 4.04 |
4/1/1965 | 4.37 | 4.35 | 3.93 | 4.01 |
7/1/1965 | 4.57 | 4.52 | 4.21 | 4.28 |
10/1/1965 | 4.74 | 4.70 | 4.52 | 4.56 |
1/1/1966 | 4.91 | 4.88 | 4.78 | 4.81 |
4/1/1966 | 4.71 | 4.72 | 4.44 | 4.50 |
7/1/1966 | 4.69 | 4.70 | 4.35 | 4.42 |
10/1/1966 | 4.68 | 4.70 | 4.33 | 4.40 |
1/1/1967 | 4.66 | 4.66 | 4.23 | 4.33 |
4/1/1967 | 4.51 | 4.51 | 3.98 | 4.10 |
7/1/1967 | 4.54 | 4.54 | 4.12 | 4.19 |
10/1/1967 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.11 | 4.16 |
1/1/1968 | 4.67 | 4.66 | 4.55 | 4.51 |
4/1/1968 | 4.70 | 4.68 | 4.68 | 4.60 |
7/1/1968 | 4.61 | 4.62 | 4.63 | 4.55 |
10/1/1968 | 4.50 | 4.53 | 4.49 | 4.45 |
1/1/1969 | 4.58 | 4.62 | 4.71 | 4.67 |
4/1/1969 | 4.46 | 4.53 | 4.61 | 4.59 |
7/1/1969 | 4.41 | 4.48 | 4.56 | 4.59 |
10/1/1969 | 4.20 | 4.29 | 4.24 | 4.33 |
1/1/1970 | 4.10 | 4.21 | 4.21 | 4.32 |
4/1/1970 | 4.06 | 4.21 | 4.41 | 4.49 |
7/1/1970 | 4.07 | 4.20 | 4.52 | 4.61 |
10/1/1970 | 3.78 | 3.94 | 4.19 | 4.28 |
1/1/1971 | 4.03 | 4.14 | 4.73 | 4.77 |
4/1/1971 | 3.86 | 3.97 | 4.53 | 4.58 |
7/1/1971 | 3.74 | 3.84 | 4.33 | 4.41 |
10/1/1971 | 3.53 | 3.60 | 3.83 | 3.99 |
1/1/1972 | 3.65 | 3.72 | 4.14 | 4.24 |
4/1/1972 | 3.78 | 3.83 | 4.36 | 4.43 |
7/1/1972 | 3.68 | 3.73 | 4.10 | 4.19 |
10/1/1972 | 3.70 | 3.73 | 3.98 | 4.10 |
1/1/1973 | 3.88 | 3.90 | 4.28 | 4.35 |
4/1/1973 | 3.86 | 3.89 | 4.18 | 4.24 |
7/1/1973 | 3.63 | 3.67 | 3.57 | 3.71 |
10/1/1973 | 3.80 | 3.87 | 4.01 | 4.05 |
1/1/1974 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 3.62 | 3.69 |
4/1/1974 | 3.78 | 3.90 | 4.25 | 4.13 |
7/1/1974 | 3.76 | 3.93 | 4.61 | 4.31 |
10/1/1974 | 3.71 | 3.88 | 4.72 | 4.36 |
1/1/1975 | 3.40 | 3.55 | 4.22 | 3.93 |
4/1/1975 | 3.34 | 3.44 | 4.27 | 3.99 |
7/1/1975 | 3.33 | 3.40 | 4.45 | 4.17 |
10/1/1975 | 3.32 | 3.41 | 4.66 | 4.35 |
1/1/1976 | 3.45 | 3.56 | 5.09 | 4.73 |
4/1/1976 | 3.24 | 3.35 | 4.62 | 4.38 |
7/1/1976 | 3.13 | 3.26 | 4.47 | 4.25 |
10/1/1976 | 3.03 | 3.14 | 4.21 | 4.05 |
1/1/1977 | 3.06 | 3.18 | 4.34 | 4.16 |
4/1/1977 | 3.18 | 3.29 | 4.58 | 4.37 |
7/1/1977 | 3.22 | 3.31 | 4.58 | 4.38 |
10/1/1977 | 2.99 | 3.08 | 4.01 | 3.89 |
1/1/1978 | 2.95 | 3.05 | 3.92 | 3.79 |
4/1/1978 | 3.47 | 3.56 | 5.04 | 4.72 |
7/1/1978 | 3.45 | 3.55 | 4.97 | 4.62 |
10/1/1978 | 3.51 | 3.62 | 5.08 | 4.71 |
1/1/1979 | 3.41 | 3.53 | 4.83 | 4.49 |
4/1/1979 | 3.34 | 3.47 | 4.68 | 4.37 |
7/1/1979 | 3.42 | 3.56 | 4.87 | 4.53 |
10/1/1979 | 3.46 | 3.62 | 5.10 | 4.67 |
1/1/1980 | 3.59 | 3.79 | 5.64 | 5.05 |
4/1/1980 | 3.23 | 3.45 | 5.04 | 4.52 |
7/1/1980 | 2.92 | 3.06 | 4.30 | 4.00 |
10/1/1980 | 3.33 | 3.50 | 5.65 | 5.04 |
1/1/1981 | 3.37 | 3.51 | 5.81 | 5.20 |
4/1/1981 | 3.06 | 3.23 | 5.26 | 4.76 |
7/1/1981 | 3.41 | 3.64 | 6.30 | 5.60 |
10/1/1981 | 2.98 | 3.21 | 5.37 | 4.92 |
1/1/1982 | 2.54 | 2.77 | 4.48 | 4.25 |
4/1/1982 | 2.66 | 2.92 | 5.01 | 4.69 |
7/1/1982 | 2.51 | 2.79 | 4.87 | 4.59 |
10/1/1982 | 2.23 | 2.47 | 4.16 | 4.09 |
1/1/1983 | 2.32 | 2.57 | 4.43 | 4.32 |
4/1/1983 | 2.56 | 2.81 | 4.98 | 4.77 |
7/1/1983 | 2.74 | 3.00 | 5.32 | 5.02 |
10/1/1983 | 2.92 | 3.19 | 5.56 | 5.23 |
1/1/1984 | 3.07 | 3.35 | 5.75 | 5.40 |
4/1/1984 | 3.13 | 3.42 | 5.73 | 5.42 |
7/1/1984 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 5.55 | 5.30 |
10/1/1984 | 3.04 | 3.34 | 5.29 | 5.13 |
1/1/1985 | 3.07 | 3.38 | 5.27 | 5.15 |
4/1/1985 | 3.07 | 3.38 | 5.16 | 5.08 |
7/1/1985 | 3.15 | 3.44 | 5.16 | 5.10 |
10/1/1985 | 3.16 | 3.46 | 5.07 | 5.01 |
1/1/1986 | 3.17 | 3.47 | 4.97 | 4.94 |
4/1/1986 | 3.06 | 3.36 | 4.60 | 4.65 |
7/1/1986 | 3.11 | 3.40 | 4.59 | 4.64 |
10/1/1986 | 3.06 | 3.35 | 4.39 | 4.48 |
1/1/1987 | 3.02 | 3.30 | 4.17 | 4.30 |
4/1/1987 | 3.14 | 3.42 | 4.33 | 4.41 |
7/1/1987 | 3.10 | 3.37 | 4.10 | 4.22 |
10/1/1987 | 3.27 | 3.53 | 4.40 | 4.46 |
1/1/1988 | 3.16 | 3.42 | 4.05 | 4.16 |
4/1/1988 | 3.27 | 3.53 | 4.23 | 4.31 |
7/1/1988 | 3.20 | 3.46 | 4.02 | 4.13 |
10/1/1988 | 3.30 | 3.56 | 4.21 | 4.29 |
1/1/1989 | 3.30 | 3.55 | 4.16 | 4.25 |
4/1/1989 | 3.28 | 3.53 | 4.10 | 4.21 |
7/1/1989 | 3.26 | 3.51 | 4.02 | 4.16 |
10/1/1989 | 3.23 | 3.49 | 4.00 | 4.12 |
1/1/1990 | 3.35 | 3.61 | 4.30 | 4.35 |
4/1/1990 | 3.32 | 3.59 | 4.28 | 4.32 |
7/1/1990 | 3.29 | 3.57 | 4.28 | 4.29 |
10/1/1990 | 3.00 | 3.29 | 3.73 | 3.83 |
1/1/1991 | 2.94 | 3.24 | 3.72 | 3.80 |
4/1/1991 | 2.90 | 3.18 | 3.71 | 3.81 |
7/1/1991 | 2.87 | 3.15 | 3.79 | 3.85 |
10/1/1991 | 2.76 | 3.04 | 3.62 | 3.71 |
1/1/1992 | 2.78 | 3.06 | 3.73 | 3.81 |
4/1/1992 | 2.78 | 3.06 | 3.73 | 3.81 |
7/1/1992 | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 3.71 |
10/1/1992 | 2.73 | 3.00 | 3.59 | 3.69 |
1/1/1993 | 2.57 | 2.85 | 3.21 | 3.36 |
4/1/1993 | 2.52 | 2.79 | 3.03 | 3.21 |
7/1/1993 | 2.39 | 2.65 | 2.67 | 2.92 |
10/1/1993 | 2.49 | 2.73 | 2.83 | 3.04 |
1/1/1994 | 2.45 | 2.68 | 2.66 | 2.89 |
4/1/1994 | 2.50 | 2.72 | 2.68 | 2.92 |
7/1/1994 | 2.44 | 2.67 | 2.47 | 2.73 |
10/1/1994 | 2.47 | 2.68 | 2.42 | 2.70 |
1/1/1995 | 2.43 | 2.65 | 2.28 | 2.56 |
4/1/1995 | 2.39 | 2.60 | 2.13 | 2.43 |
7/1/1995 | 2.41 | 2.61 | 2.13 | 2.43 |
10/1/1995 | 2.42 | 2.62 | 2.16 | 2.44 |
1/1/1996 | 2.43 | 2.62 | 2.18 | 2.45 |
4/1/1996 | 2.56 | 2.74 | 2.45 | 2.68 |
7/1/1996 | 2.57 | 2.75 | 2.45 | 2.67 |
10/1/1996 | 2.60 | 2.78 | 2.49 | 2.71 |
1/1/1997 | 2.55 | 2.73 | 2.37 | 2.61 |
4/1/1997 | 2.71 | 2.88 | 2.66 | 2.85 |
7/1/1997 | 2.70 | 2.87 | 2.61 | 2.81 |
10/1/1997 | 2.71 | 2.87 | 2.58 | 2.78 |
1/1/1998 | 2.75 | 2.91 | 2.59 | 2.79 |
4/1/1998 | 2.76 | 2.92 | 2.57 | 2.78 |
7/1/1998 | 2.85 | 3.00 | 2.70 | 2.89 |
10/1/1998 | 2.96 | 3.11 | 2.89 | 3.05 |
1/1/1999 | 2.91 | 3.06 | 2.76 | 2.95 |
4/1/1999 | 2.88 | 3.03 | 2.65 | 2.87 |
7/1/1999 | 2.96 | 3.11 | 2.77 | 2.96 |
10/1/1999 | 3.09 | 3.23 | 2.98 | 3.14 |
1/1/2000 | 3.01 | 3.16 | 2.76 | 2.94 |
4/1/2000 | 3.18 | 3.31 | 3.05 | 3.19 |
7/1/2000 | 3.05 | 3.20 | 2.75 | 2.93 |
10/1/2000 | 3.03 | 3.18 | 2.68 | 2.89 |
1/1/2001 | 2.91 | 3.07 | 2.43 | 2.67 |
4/1/2001 | 2.92 | 3.07 | 2.45 | 2.68 |
7/1/2001 | 2.77 | 2.92 | 2.18 | 2.42 |
10/1/2001 | 2.73 | 2.87 | 2.15 | 2.36 |
1/1/2002 | 2.73 | 2.86 | 2.21 | 2.38 |
4/1/2002 | 2.66 | 2.77 | 2.11 | 2.26 |
7/1/2002 | 2.57 | 2.67 | 1.94 | 2.09 |
10/1/2002 | 2.42 | 2.51 | 1.65 | 1.83 |
1/1/2003 | 2.33 | 2.41 | 1.46 | 1.66 |
4/1/2003 | 2.26 | 2.33 | 1.32 | 1.54 |
7/1/2003 | 2.40 | 2.45 | 1.60 | 1.76 |
10/1/2003 | 2.36 | 2.40 | 1.47 | 1.65 |
1/1/2004 | 2.31 | 2.36 | 1.32 | 1.50 |
4/1/2004 | 2.34 | 2.38 | 1.29 | 1.46 |
7/1/2004 | 2.30 | 2.33 | 1.16 | 1.34 |
10/1/2004 | 2.35 | 2.36 | 1.22 | 1.37 |
1/1/2005 | 2.38 | 2.39 | 1.25 | 1.40 |
4/1/2005 | 2.25 | 2.26 | 0.98 | 1.18 |
7/1/2005 | 2.22 | 2.22 | 0.87 | 1.11 |
10/1/2005 | 2.25 | 2.26 | 0.93 | 1.16 |
1/1/2006 | 2.35 | 2.36 | 1.13 | 1.34 |
4/1/2006 | 2.32 | 2.34 | 1.07 | 1.28 |
7/1/2006 | 2.24 | 2.27 | 0.92 | 1.17 |
10/1/2006 | 2.25 | 2.28 | 1.00 | 1.26 |
1/1/2007 | 2.19 | 2.22 | 0.96 | 1.22 |
4/1/2007 | 2.16 | 2.19 | 0.98 | 1.24 |
7/1/2007 | 2.15 | 2.19 | 1.04 | 1.28 |
10/1/2007 | 2.21 | 2.24 | 1.22 | 1.40 |
1/1/2008 | 2.03 | 2.07 | 0.92 | 1.12 |
4/1/2008 | 2.00 | 2.03 | 0.93 | 1.11 |
7/1/2008 | 1.86 | 1.88 | 0.73 | 0.88 |
10/1/2008 | 1.33 | 1.35 | -0.28 | -0.01 |
1/1/2009 | 1.17 | 1.18 | -0.55 | -0.29 |
4/1/2009 | 1.16 | 1.15 | -0.49 | -0.29 |
7/1/2009 | 1.11 | 1.08 | -0.49 | -0.31 |
10/1/2009 | 1.25 | 1.20 | -0.13 | -0.05 |
1/1/2010 | 1.04 | 0.99 | -0.48 | -0.34 |
4/1/2010 | 1.04 | 0.98 | -0.43 | -0.29 |
7/1/2010 | 1.04 | 0.97 | -0.44 | -0.30 |
10/1/2010 | 0.99 | 0.93 | -0.55 | -0.39 |
1/1/2011 | 0.91 | 0.85 | -0.76 | -0.58 |
4/1/2011 | 0.97 | 0.90 | -0.66 | -0.50 |
7/1/2011 | 0.94 | 0.88 | -0.70 | -0.56 |
10/1/2011 | 1.03 | 0.95 | -0.50 | -0.39 |
1/1/2012 | 1.03 | 0.94 | -0.47 | -0.36 |
4/1/2012 | 0.95 | 0.87 | -0.59 | -0.46 |
7/1/2012 | 0.84 | 0.76 | -0.81 | -0.63 |
10/1/2012 | 0.76 | 0.68 | -0.96 | -0.75 |
1/1/2013 | 0.83 | 0.74 | -0.81 | -0.62 |
4/1/2013 | 0.66 | 0.57 | -1.14 | -0.88 |
7/1/2013 | 0.76 | 0.66 | -0.94 | -0.73 |
10/1/2013 | 0.77 | 0.67 | -0.92 | -0.71 |
1/1/2014 | 0.60 | 0.50 | -1.27 | -1.02 |
4/1/2014 | 0.78 | 0.66 | -0.91 | -0.72 |
7/1/2014 | 0.83 | 0.70 | -0.79 | -0.63 |
10/1/2014 | 0.78 | 0.64 | -0.91 | -0.73 |
1/1/2015 | 0.77 | 0.63 | -0.96 | -0.75 |
4/1/2015 | 0.83 | 0.69 | -0.85 | -0.67 |
7/1/2015 | 0.76 | 0.62 | -1.03 | -0.82 |
10/1/2015 | 0.68 | 0.54 | -1.21 | -0.98 |
1/1/2016 | 0.70 | 0.55 | -1.19 | -0.97 |
4/1/2016 | 0.69 | 0.54 | -1.18 | -0.97 |
7/1/2016 | 0.68 | 0.52 | -1.19 | -0.99 |
10/1/2016 | 0.65 | 0.49 | -1.23 | -1.02 |
1/1/2017 | 0.64 | 0.47 | -1.23 | -1.02 |
4/1/2017 | 0.55 | 0.37 | -1.40 | -1.16 |
7/1/2017 | 0.60 | 0.42 | -1.28 | -1.07 |
10/1/2017 | 0.68 | 0.49 | -1.12 | -0.95 |
1/1/2018 | 0.71 | 0.53 | -1.05 | -0.90 |
4/1/2018 | 0.75 | 0.55 | -0.98 | -0.85 |
7/1/2018 | 0.73 | 0.54 | -0.99 | -0.85 |
10/1/2018 | 0.67 | 0.48 | -1.08 | -0.93 |
1/1/2019 | 0.72 | 0.53 | -0.95 | -0.82 |
4/1/2019 | 0.71 | 0.52 | -0.95 | -0.81 |
7/1/2019 | 0.76 | 0.57 | -0.82 | -0.70 |
10/1/2019 | 0.72 | 0.54 | -0.86 | -0.72 |
Panel B: Output gap (percent)
Make Full Screen
Date | HLW-HLW | HLW-Liv | BCS-HLW | BCS_Liv |
---|---|---|---|---|
1/1/1961 | -4.13 | -4.05 | ||
4/1/1961 | -4.22 | -3.93 | ||
7/1/1961 | -3.53 | -3.10 | ||
10/1/1961 | -2.71 | -2.25 | ||
1/1/1962 | -1.80 | -1.42 | ||
4/1/1962 | -0.70 | -0.56 | -1.07 | -0.92 |
7/1/1962 | -0.25 | -0.18 | -0.65 | -0.57 |
10/1/1962 | 0.05 | 0.02 | -0.24 | -0.29 |
1/1/1963 | 0.11 | 0.11 | -0.19 | -0.29 |
4/1/1963 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 0.24 | 0.06 |
7/1/1963 | 0.68 | 0.76 | 0.40 | 0.36 |
10/1/1963 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 0.98 | 0.81 |
1/1/1964 | 1.31 | 1.35 | 1.24 | 1.12 |
4/1/1964 | 1.18 | 1.24 | 0.98 | 0.85 |
7/1/1964 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.14 | 0.99 |
10/1/1964 | 1.51 | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.23 |
1/1/1965 | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.56 | 1.39 |
4/1/1965 | 1.63 | 1.68 | 1.55 | 1.41 |
7/1/1965 | 1.60 | 1.71 | 1.42 | 1.34 |
10/1/1965 | 2.15 | 2.22 | 2.13 | 2.07 |
1/1/1966 | 2.56 | 2.61 | 2.56 | 2.52 |
4/1/1966 | 3.05 | 2.96 | 3.27 | 3.13 |
7/1/1966 | 2.82 | 2.73 | 3.20 | 3.03 |
10/1/1966 | 2.56 | 2.47 | 3.26 | 3.08 |
1/1/1967 | 1.88 | 1.85 | 2.63 | 2.48 |
4/1/1967 | 1.47 | 1.41 | 2.45 | 2.26 |
7/1/1967 | 1.34 | 1.30 | 2.70 | 2.55 |
10/1/1967 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 2.79 | 2.69 |
1/1/1968 | 1.49 | 1.53 | 3.46 | 3.45 |
4/1/1968 | 1.62 | 1.69 | 3.74 | 3.78 |
7/1/1968 | 1.95 | 1.92 | 4.32 | 4.28 |
10/1/1968 | 1.91 | 1.79 | 4.48 | 4.34 |
1/1/1969 | 1.77 | 1.61 | 4.55 | 4.38 |
4/1/1969 | 1.80 | 1.53 | 4.86 | 4.57 |
7/1/1969 | 1.38 | 1.03 | 4.55 | 4.19 |
10/1/1969 | 0.81 | 0.34 | 4.06 | 3.56 |
1/1/1970 | 0.25 | -0.31 | 3.73 | 3.15 |
4/1/1970 | -0.04 | -0.67 | 3.84 | 3.23 |
7/1/1970 | -0.66 | -1.26 | 3.12 | 2.58 |
10/1/1970 | -0.88 | -1.53 | 3.01 | 2.43 |
1/1/1971 | -1.28 | -1.78 | 2.44 | 2.06 |
4/1/1971 | -1.00 | -1.49 | 2.54 | 2.22 |
7/1/1971 | -0.86 | -1.29 | 2.37 | 2.11 |
10/1/1971 | -1.04 | -1.39 | 1.59 | 1.38 |
1/1/1972 | -0.55 | -0.84 | 1.89 | 1.77 |
4/1/1972 | 0.00 | -0.19 | 2.07 | 2.10 |
7/1/1972 | 0.49 | 0.33 | 2.09 | 2.18 |
10/1/1972 | 0.68 | 0.61 | 1.70 | 1.88 |
1/1/1973 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 2.07 | 2.36 |
4/1/1973 | 1.84 | 1.82 | 2.43 | 2.71 |
7/1/1973 | 1.62 | 1.57 | 1.87 | 2.08 |
10/1/1973 | 1.74 | 1.67 | 2.42 | 2.60 |
1/1/1974 | 1.05 | 0.97 | 1.68 | 1.82 |
4/1/1974 | 1.21 | 1.10 | 2.70 | 2.83 |
7/1/1974 | 1.34 | 1.18 | 3.86 | 3.94 |
10/1/1974 | 0.43 | 0.31 | 3.55 | 3.63 |
1/1/1975 | -1.03 | -1.12 | 2.26 | 2.30 |
4/1/1975 | -2.09 | -2.09 | 1.48 | 1.56 |
7/1/1975 | -2.28 | -2.23 | 1.40 | 1.53 |
10/1/1975 | -1.43 | -1.48 | 2.48 | 2.51 |
1/1/1976 | -0.35 | -0.47 | 3.69 | 3.66 |
4/1/1976 | 0.04 | -0.11 | 3.69 | 3.60 |
7/1/1976 | 0.60 | 0.41 | 4.29 | 4.12 |
10/1/1976 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 4.13 | 3.96 |
1/1/1977 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 4.66 | 4.51 |
4/1/1977 | 1.52 | 1.44 | 5.09 | 5.01 |
7/1/1977 | 1.88 | 1.85 | 5.17 | 5.18 |
10/1/1977 | 1.91 | 1.88 | 4.84 | 4.84 |
1/1/1978 | 2.03 | 2.01 | 5.02 | 5.02 |
4/1/1978 | 2.74 | 2.81 | 5.99 | 6.18 |
7/1/1978 | 3.31 | 3.36 | 6.48 | 6.72 |
10/1/1978 | 3.56 | 3.59 | 6.80 | 7.04 |
1/1/1979 | 3.42 | 3.39 | 6.68 | 6.85 |
4/1/1979 | 2.96 | 2.87 | 6.34 | 6.44 |
7/1/1979 | 2.65 | 2.55 | 6.26 | 6.36 |
10/1/1979 | 2.61 | 2.48 | 6.67 | 6.77 |
1/1/1980 | 2.77 | 2.58 | 7.66 | 7.73 |
4/1/1980 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 6.78 | 6.72 |
7/1/1980 | -0.95 | -1.08 | 3.43 | 3.46 |
10/1/1980 | -0.32 | -0.47 | 5.22 | 5.32 |
1/1/1981 | -0.63 | -0.73 | 4.50 | 4.73 |
4/1/1981 | -1.01 | -1.24 | 3.68 | 3.79 |
7/1/1981 | -0.31 | -0.73 | 5.05 | 5.04 |
10/1/1981 | -1.94 | -2.45 | 2.52 | 2.40 |
1/1/1982 | -3.70 | -4.29 | -0.04 | -0.27 |
4/1/1982 | -4.04 | -4.68 | -0.16 | -0.42 |
7/1/1982 | -4.60 | -5.29 | -1.06 | -1.34 |
10/1/1982 | -5.90 | -6.54 | -3.70 | -3.93 |
1/1/1983 | -5.69 | -6.29 | -4.01 | -4.15 |
4/1/1983 | -4.69 | -5.24 | -3.39 | -3.41 |
7/1/1983 | -3.38 | -3.92 | -2.50 | -2.47 |
10/1/1983 | -2.16 | -2.69 | -1.74 | -1.69 |
1/1/1984 | -1.16 | -1.68 | -0.97 | -0.94 |
4/1/1984 | -0.59 | -1.10 | -0.64 | -0.66 |
7/1/1984 | -0.25 | -0.79 | -0.36 | -0.48 |
10/1/1984 | -0.41 | -0.95 | -0.62 | -0.84 |
1/1/1985 | -0.45 | -0.98 | -0.55 | -0.82 |
4/1/1985 | -0.51 | -1.00 | -0.64 | -0.93 |
7/1/1985 | -0.54 | -0.97 | -0.84 | -1.08 |
10/1/1985 | -0.25 | -0.65 | -0.52 | -0.77 |
1/1/1986 | -0.23 | -0.58 | -0.52 | -0.75 |
4/1/1986 | -0.51 | -0.82 | -1.00 | -1.24 |
7/1/1986 | -0.50 | -0.79 | -0.95 | -1.18 |
10/1/1986 | -0.52 | -0.77 | -0.97 | -1.20 |
1/1/1987 | -0.64 | -0.83 | -1.26 | -1.46 |
4/1/1987 | -0.22 | -0.38 | -0.64 | -0.82 |
7/1/1987 | -0.27 | -0.36 | -0.91 | -1.03 |
10/1/1987 | 0.14 | 0.11 | -0.28 | -0.35 |
1/1/1988 | 0.14 | 0.13 | -0.43 | -0.50 |
4/1/1988 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
7/1/1988 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.12 | 0.05 |
10/1/1988 | 0.52 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 |
1/1/1989 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.44 |
4/1/1989 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 0.38 |
7/1/1989 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.08 |
10/1/1989 | -0.13 | -0.12 | 0.25 | 0.16 |
1/1/1990 | -0.21 | -0.19 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
4/1/1990 | -0.32 | -0.31 | 0.50 | 0.46 |
7/1/1990 | -0.38 | -0.41 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
10/1/1990 | -1.12 | -1.17 | -0.11 | -0.24 |
1/1/1991 | -1.46 | -1.53 | -0.06 | -0.25 |
4/1/1991 | -2.10 | -2.11 | -0.77 | -0.89 |
7/1/1991 | -2.01 | -2.02 | -0.53 | -0.63 |
10/1/1991 | -2.01 | -2.01 | -0.62 | -0.71 |
1/1/1992 | -1.78 | -1.76 | -0.42 | -0.49 |
4/1/1992 | -1.34 | -1.30 | -0.09 | -0.13 |
7/1/1992 | -0.97 | -0.91 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
10/1/1992 | -0.41 | -0.34 | 0.61 | 0.58 |
1/1/1993 | -0.15 | -0.07 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
4/1/1993 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.77 | 0.74 |
7/1/1993 | -0.11 | 0.08 | 0.38 | 0.39 |
10/1/1993 | 0.24 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 0.82 |
1/1/1994 | 0.42 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.82 |
4/1/1994 | 0.75 | 1.07 | 0.93 | 1.09 |
7/1/1994 | 0.99 | 1.29 | 1.02 | 1.18 |
10/1/1994 | 1.01 | 1.33 | 0.89 | 1.08 |
1/1/1995 | 1.12 | 1.43 | 0.98 | 1.15 |
4/1/1995 | 0.91 | 1.22 | 0.72 | 0.90 |
7/1/1995 | 0.58 | 0.92 | 0.32 | 0.55 |
10/1/1995 | 0.42 | 0.77 | 0.16 | 0.43 |
1/1/1996 | 0.25 | 0.60 | -0.02 | 0.28 |
4/1/1996 | 0.25 | 0.60 | -0.05 | 0.30 |
7/1/1996 | 0.39 | 0.70 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
10/1/1996 | 0.47 | 0.75 | 0.08 | 0.41 |
1/1/1997 | 0.40 | 0.66 | -0.08 | 0.23 |
4/1/1997 | 0.55 | 0.81 | 0.12 | 0.45 |
7/1/1997 | 0.52 | 0.79 | -0.11 | 0.25 |
10/1/1997 | 0.64 | 0.87 | -0.03 | 0.30 |
1/1/1998 | 0.67 | 0.89 | -0.05 | 0.26 |
4/1/1998 | 0.60 | 0.81 | -0.17 | 0.12 |
7/1/1998 | 0.64 | 0.83 | -0.12 | 0.17 |
10/1/1998 | 0.72 | 0.91 | -0.02 | 0.28 |
1/1/1999 | 0.67 | 0.83 | -0.19 | 0.08 |
4/1/1999 | 0.63 | 0.77 | -0.25 | -0.02 |
7/1/1999 | 0.68 | 0.82 | -0.15 | 0.08 |
10/1/1999 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 0.08 | 0.33 |
1/1/2000 | 0.94 | 1.06 | 0.12 | 0.32 |
4/1/2000 | 0.98 | 1.12 | 0.23 | 0.45 |
7/1/2000 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
10/1/2000 | 0.52 | 0.60 | -0.25 | -0.13 |
1/1/2001 | 0.15 | 0.20 | -0.54 | -0.49 |
4/1/2001 | -0.33 | -0.25 | -0.96 | -0.89 |
7/1/2001 | -0.69 | -0.60 | -1.26 | -1.20 |
10/1/2001 | -1.00 | -0.83 | -1.46 | -1.35 |
1/1/2002 | -1.11 | -0.86 | -1.52 | -1.33 |
4/1/2002 | -1.00 | -0.70 | -1.42 | -1.19 |
7/1/2002 | -0.85 | -0.50 | -1.25 | -1.02 |
10/1/2002 | -0.82 | -0.45 | -1.26 | -1.06 |
1/1/2003 | -0.83 | -0.41 | -1.36 | -1.15 |
4/1/2003 | -0.80 | -0.32 | -1.48 | -1.24 |
7/1/2003 | -0.23 | 0.28 | -0.83 | -0.55 |
10/1/2003 | 0.14 | 0.67 | -0.66 | -0.36 |
1/1/2004 | 0.61 | 1.12 | -0.20 | 0.05 |
4/1/2004 | 0.98 | 1.48 | 0.20 | 0.45 |
7/1/2004 | 1.00 | 1.55 | 0.10 | 0.38 |
10/1/2004 | 1.31 | 1.86 | 0.53 | 0.81 |
1/1/2005 | 1.49 | 2.04 | 0.80 | 1.07 |
4/1/2005 | 1.37 | 1.88 | 0.60 | 0.82 |
7/1/2005 | 1.17 | 1.65 | 0.30 | 0.51 |
10/1/2005 | 1.31 | 1.73 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
1/1/2006 | 1.32 | 1.70 | 0.66 | 0.82 |
4/1/2006 | 1.37 | 1.67 | 0.82 | 0.91 |
7/1/2006 | 0.98 | 1.22 | 0.43 | 0.47 |
10/1/2006 | 0.54 | 0.76 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
1/1/2007 | 0.25 | 0.44 | -0.16 | -0.14 |
4/1/2007 | -0.11 | 0.07 | -0.54 | -0.49 |
7/1/2007 | -0.31 | -0.13 | -0.74 | -0.67 |
10/1/2007 | -0.27 | -0.11 | -0.60 | -0.50 |
1/1/2008 | -0.58 | -0.43 | -0.95 | -0.88 |
4/1/2008 | -0.99 | -0.77 | -1.42 | -1.28 |
7/1/2008 | -1.09 | -0.82 | -1.41 | -1.24 |
10/1/2008 | -2.04 | -1.69 | -2.73 | -2.56 |
1/1/2009 | -2.59 | -2.14 | -3.24 | -3.06 |
4/1/2009 | -2.75 | -2.22 | -3.34 | -3.09 |
7/1/2009 | -2.80 | -2.20 | -3.52 | -3.21 |
10/1/2009 | -2.15 | -1.54 | -2.76 | -2.41 |
1/1/2010 | -2.08 | -1.44 | -3.07 | -2.72 |
4/1/2010 | -1.57 | -0.95 | -2.63 | -2.31 |
7/1/2010 | -0.98 | -0.40 | -2.13 | -1.85 |
10/1/2010 | -0.55 | 0.00 | -1.80 | -1.58 |
1/1/2011 | -0.16 | 0.34 | -1.42 | -1.28 |
4/1/2011 | 0.05 | 0.57 | -1.14 | -1.01 |
7/1/2011 | 0.36 | 0.85 | -0.67 | -0.56 |
10/1/2011 | 0.51 | 1.03 | -0.42 | -0.28 |
1/1/2012 | 0.77 | 1.28 | -0.08 | 0.06 |
4/1/2012 | 0.91 | 1.39 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
7/1/2012 | 0.90 | 1.35 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
10/1/2012 | 0.87 | 1.29 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
1/1/2013 | 0.97 | 1.39 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
4/1/2013 | 0.74 | 1.17 | -0.18 | -0.13 |
7/1/2013 | 1.02 | 1.45 | 0.23 | 0.31 |
10/1/2013 | 1.12 | 1.57 | 0.28 | 0.41 |
1/1/2014 | 1.02 | 1.47 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
4/1/2014 | 1.23 | 1.70 | 0.38 | 0.56 |
7/1/2014 | 1.41 | 1.89 | 0.51 | 0.75 |
10/1/2014 | 1.56 | 2.01 | 0.57 | 0.81 |
1/1/2015 | 1.61 | 2.05 | 0.54 | 0.78 |
4/1/2015 | 1.90 | 2.29 | 0.94 | 1.15 |
7/1/2015 | 1.84 | 2.21 | 0.78 | 0.98 |
10/1/2015 | 1.71 | 2.08 | 0.64 | 0.82 |
1/1/2016 | 1.60 | 1.99 | 0.59 | 0.79 |
4/1/2016 | 1.52 | 1.91 | 0.57 | 0.79 |
7/1/2016 | 1.42 | 1.81 | 0.49 | 0.72 |
10/1/2016 | 1.33 | 1.72 | 0.40 | 0.63 |
1/1/2017 | 1.31 | 1.69 | 0.39 | 0.63 |
4/1/2017 | 1.03 | 1.43 | -0.09 | 0.17 |
7/1/2017 | 1.15 | 1.54 | 0.07 | 0.34 |
10/1/2017 | 1.35 | 1.73 | 0.33 | 0.62 |
1/1/2018 | 1.51 | 1.87 | 0.53 | 0.81 |
4/1/2018 | 1.51 | 1.87 | 0.49 | 0.79 |
7/1/2018 | 1.43 | 1.77 | 0.37 | 0.66 |
10/1/2018 | 1.31 | 1.61 | 0.28 | 0.52 |
1/1/2019 | 1.24 | 1.50 | 0.30 | 0.52 |
4/1/2019 | 1.12 | 1.35 | 0.18 | 0.38 |
7/1/2019 | 1.15 | 1.33 | 0.34 | 0.50 |
10/1/2019 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
Figure 5. Confidence bands around natural rate estimates (2019Q4, percent).
Make Full Screen
HLW-HLW | HLW-Liv | BCS-HLW | BCS_Liv | |
---|---|---|---|---|
+2 std. errors | 3.88 | 3.09 | 2.56 | 2.04 |
Estimate | 0.72 | 0.54 | -0.86 | -0.72 |
-2 std. errors | -2.44 | -2.02 | -4.28 | -3.49 |
Last Update:
June 19, 2020